Camps are open. Pads are hitting pads. New faces are being introduced, and rookies are beginning to sign deals and pick their jersey numbers. It’s February in the USFL and it has been an active 3 months since we last checked in with the spring league. A lot has happened in that time, from a draft day blockbuster trade to big news out of New York that is sure to make fans in several markets a bit nervous. We will break down how the USFL Draft went, what later free agent signings will impact the 2014 season, and where there remain some pretty big gaps in team rosters, gaps that may well motivate some bidding wars as the 2nd of the offseason’s NFL-USFL Transfer Windows opens. All of this, plus the latest coaching news, and a look at the 5 new Head Coaches that will have their hands full preparing for a new season. Don’t go anywhere, the USFL is on tap.
Texas-Sized Deal Sends Manziel RIghts to Dallas
It was a shot fired across the bow of the USFL, and a deal that will define the legacy of two head coaches, one well established, one trying to make a name for himself. With the Houston Gamblers holding the rights to Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel in the league’s Territorial Draft, teams had been calling in to Houston for weeks trying to discern whether or not the Gamblers were willing to make a deal, and just what the terms of that deal may be. By the morning of the leauge’s T-Draft on January 25th, most clubs had decided that the price was either too high or the Gamblers were simply not going to part with a potential franchise quarterback, even if Matt Hasselbeck had made no indications of eminent retirement. Most, but not all clubs that is.
On the morning of the draft, about 2 hours before the three player selections from each team were due, and just hours before the live ESPN reveal show would tell the nation which three players would be protected from the Open Draft by each of the league’s 28 clubs, the Houston Gamblers got the deal they had hoped for. In a risky move, the Gamblers would make a deal with a division rival, the newly-relocated Dallas Roughnecks. Dallas had a lot to offer, including the very first pick in the Open Draft, and it would take 3 such picks for the Gamblers to make the deal. Dallas offered their 1st overall pick, their 2014 first T-Draft pick, and the 2015 1st round pick to Houston, all for the rights to compete with the NFL and not 27 other USFL teams for “Johnny Football”. Manziel would be the choice, and Dallas would begin in earnest to work with Manziel’s agent to try to seal a deal even before the NFL draft 2 weeks later.
As for Houston, the move would certainly create some frustration and anger among a segment of their fanbase, after all, Houston and College Station are practically within spitting distance of each other, and many Gambler fans, eager to return to the style of wide open gunslinging they have not seen since Jim Kelly, had their hearts set on Manziel wearing black and red. But, Coach Phillips and the Gamblers were not as enamored of Manziel and his style of play. They certainly praised him in public, in part to keep his value high, but concerns over his style of play, his size, and his off-field escapades, had largely turned away the Gambler personnel team, who had decided back in December to field offers for the T-Draft pick that would nab the Aggie QB.
Dallas’s deal gave Houston what they wanted, three high value picks, and a chance to rebuild in areas of more immediate need. The day of the deal, Houston would use the Dallas T-Draft pick earned in the swap to select Oklahoma CB Aaron Colvin, a player they felt could plug in well to Coach Phillips’s defensive scheme, the hope being that Colvin could serve as a nickel corner in 2014 and perhaps move into the starting two if Shaun Springs retired after the season as many anticipate. But, with secondary being a major concern for the Gamblers, they did not stop there. Only 3 days later, on the cusp of the USFL’s open draft, the Gamblers again defied the wishes of some fans and traded away the #1 overall pick in the Open Draft.
Many had expected that the Gamblers would take a run at DE Jadeveon Clowney, left unprotected by the Orlando Renegades and considered the best edge rusher in the draft. But with the combo of Osi Umenyiura and Antwan Applewhite well-established with the Gambler D-line, Coach Phillips was still concerned about the secondary. Seattle was eager to move up from the 7th spot, fearing that their ideal pick, Buffalo LB Khalil Mack, would never make it past the Bulls at 3 or the Knights at 4. The Dragons would send Houston their 7th pick, a 4th rounder they had picked up from New Jersey in a 2013 deal, and, most coveted by the Gamblers, man-up cornerback Leodis McKelvin.
By trading away one pick from their Territorial Draft, Houston had acquired two potential starting cornerbacks, a first round pick in 2015, a 4th rounder this year, and now had both the 7th and 8th pick in the first round of the Open Draft. They would, two days later, turn those three 2014 picks into potential players, using Seattle’s pick in the 1st round to select Ohio State HB Carlos Hyde, their own pick at 8 to select their own LB choice, Alabama’s C. J. Mosely, and the Seattle 4th rounder to select center Travis Swanson from Arkansas.
Seattle had gotten their shot at Khalil Mack, making the linebacker the first player chosen in the Open Draft. Dallas, meanwhile, had used the pick on Manziel as predicted, but now find themselves in a bidding war with the NFL Cleveland Browns, who selected the quarterback in the first round of the NFL Draft. None of the players have signed with either league yet, with Mack chosen by the NFL Bears, and Houston’s two first round picks chosen by the 49ers (Hyde) and Baltimore (Mosely).
Whether the moves prove to be boons for each club or major failures will depend a lot on the signing decision of each player. Were Manziel to sign with the Browns, the Roughnecks would have expended three important picks with no return. If Mack signs with the Bears, the Dragons would also have cost themselves not only picks but a very solid starting cornerback. Houston certainly hopes to land all 4 players acquired via the trades during this year’s draft, but at the very least they have landed a corner in McKelvin. Of course, if that is the only gain, and if Manziel does sign with Dallas, there could be some major blowback in Houston from the deal. A lot of fans are not going to be happy to see Manziel in the Roughnecks’ sky blue jerseys, especially if Houston has nothing to show for it but a lone cornerback.
The combined T-Draft and Open Draft saw a total of 17 other trades, with several coming on draft day in the open draft. The Territorial Draft saw 2 other significant 1st pick trade, as the Ohio Glory made a deal with Oakland to acquire the Invaders’ first pick, a choice the Glory used to select Fresno State QB Derek Carr, brother to Arizona’s starter, David Carr. Oakland would later chose the QB they liked best as a backup and protégé to Joey Harrington, Eastern Illinois’s Jimmy Garoppolo. Meanwhile, Seattle sent their 1st T-Draft pick to the Washington Federals, who coveted and selected UW halfback Bishop Sankey.
As for Open Draft swaps, we saw two more in the first round, followed by the usual flurry of movement in rounds 3-7. Aside from the dual trade that moved the 1st pick in the draft from Dallas to Houston and then on to Seattle, the 2nd pick was also swapped, with New Jersey dropping from 2 to 6 in a deal with Michigan that gave the Panthers their shot to select DE Jadeveon Clowney to bolster their somewhat ineffective pass rush. New Jesey felt comfortable that they could get the target they had at 2 with pick 6 as well, and the fans from the Tri-State area in Madison Square Garden certainly seemed happy when the name of LSU wideout Odell Beckham Jr. was announced by the commissioner as New Jersey’s pick.
The only other first round movement came in a deal between the Maulers and the Renegades. Orlando packaged their 2014 1st rounder and a pair of 2015 picks in a deal that helped them move up from 16th to 11th, a move designed to get them ahead of Portland, a team known to be interested in UCLA linebacker Anthony Barr. Barr was left unprotected in the T-Draft by LA, in something of a surprise move, and when he survived the first 10 picks without being chosen, Orlando made their move, jumping up 5 spots to nab the Bruin linebacker. Pittsburgh would drop down to 16th, where they would hope to help their offense with TE Eric Ebron of North Carolina.
We will recap the entire 1st round of the draft a bit later on, but we should mention at least one more trade that occurred during the weekend, with Washington sending DE Kamerion Wemberly to Charlotte in exchange for a 5th rounder and guard Travis Bond. The move came soon after Nebraska’s Spencer Long was selected in the 3rd round by Nashville. Long had been a targeted player for the Feds, so when he went off the table they dealt Wemberly to Charlotte to acquire Bond and fill the gap they had at RG.
Before we jump into our recap of the USFL Open Draft’s first round, we should note that both of the open coaching positions in the league, that of Las Vegas and Nashville, were filled in December. Short after being approved for ownership by the USFL, the new CEO of the Thunder, John Moores, consulted with the team’s personnel team and remaining front office staff, including several of the league-appointed “guardians” of the team during the league’s short ownership period, to select the next head coach. The choice was a well-known entity to USFL fans, former Michigan Panthers head coach Dick LeBeau. After over a decade prowling the Panther sideline, LeBeau spent less than 6 months on the unemployment line before the Thunder brought him in to be the leader of the team during what could be a rough year in Las Vegas and a huge transition as the team prepares to relocate to San Diego in 2015. LeBeau takes over a club that started 2013 with a 6-2 record only to lose 7 of their last 8 and miss the playoffs, the result of one of the biggest collapses in league history for a team in first place at the midway point of the season.
Now the only team without a coach, Nashville got their man 2 weeks later, making an early January announcement. Many expected the team to be announcing an NFL hire, as several NFL coaches were released from their positions in the days following the conclusion of the fall league’ season, but Nashville did not go that direction, choosing instead to jump on the still unsigned Philadelphia OC Greg Roman. Roman had been reluctant to sign a new deal with the Stars while there were still open head coaching positions within the league and with 5 NFL positions also opening up in January, but the Knights made that delay in signing pay off, giving Roman his first head coaching job. An offensive guru who has helped Philadelphia find success despite injuries over the past year to several of their biggest names on offense, Roman’s role will be to rebuild a Knights offense that has suffered with the departure of Frank Gore, and to try to maximize what could be the final year of pro ball for QB Peyton Manning.
With all 28 coaching positions now filled, the draft would be an exercise in prioritization and expectation. As always the USFL would have the first shot at the new class of college players, with the NFL holding their draft approximately 2 weeks after the USFL T-Draft and one week after the Open Draft.
The T-Draft would produce its share of big names taken off the board for the other 28 teams, including A&M stars Manziel and Mike Evans, Auburn OT Greg Robinson, Pitt DT Aaron Donald, and Buckeye LB Ryan Shazier. But with several of the big name, first round talents still on the board, there was room for teams to make a play for their preferred target before the NFL came calling. The first round of the USFL Open Draft would be an attempt by each team to not only pick the best talent available, but to stress to that player that they were both in demand and best-suited for a move to Spring Football, an annual act of “persuasion” that tends to produce between 50%-60% success rates for the league.
As we review the first round picks of all 28 teams, we will indicate any players who have signed a deal, as well as the NFL club that our USFL squads are competing with.
Seattle (From HOU-DAL): LB Khalil Mack (Buffalo)
NFL Competitor: Bears
The Dragons made the move to ensure they would get their man, a Tasmanian Devil of an outside LB, equally talented in the pass rush and in stretching out run plays. Now all they have to do is outbid the often-stingy Bears.
Michigan (From NJ): DE Jadeveon Clowney (South Carolina)
NFL Competitor: Houston Oilers
The clear number one edge rushing end in the draft. Michigan had to make a deal with the Generals to get ahead of Jacksonville and Nashville to get a shot at Clowney, but now they will be dealing with the NFL Oilers to try to land their pick.
Jacksonville: OT Taylor Lewan (Michigan)
NFL Competitor: Tennessee Copperheads
The Panthers left Lewan unprotected, which was a bit of a surprise, but then stole Clowney out from under the Bulls, so picking a Michigan Wolverine feels a bit like payback. Lewan will certainly benefit from the bidding war sure to come between the Bulls and Copperheads.
Nashville: DE Dee Ford (Auburn)
NFL Competitor: Kansas City Chiefs
The Knights were another club hoping Clowney would be available. There were rumors that they too were in negotiations with New Jersey to get ahead of the Bulls, but lost out to the Panthers. Their second choice is big power rusher Dee Ford from Auburn. To land him they may have to use the “home region” advantage over KC as well as the financial one.
Memphis: S Calvin Pryor (Louisville)
NFL Competitor: New York Jets
Chalk an early victory up on the board for the USFL as Memphis announced this week that they had signed the former Cardinal to a 4-year deal. Apparently staying in the Mid-South was more appealing than dealing with the pressure of being a top draft pick for a NY club.
New Jersey (MGN): WR Odell Beckham Jr (LSU)
NFL Competitor: NY Giants
Oof, it will be an in-house battle between two denizens of Met-Life Stadium as Beckham has to choose between the USFL Generals and the NFL Giants. If there is any advantage to being picked earlier in the draft, that goes to the Generals, who took Beckham 6th, while the Giants had to wait until the 12th pick to select the Bayou Bengal receiver.
Houston (SEA): HB Carlos Hyde (Ohio State)
NFL Competitor: San Francisco 49ers
The first of two back-to-back picks for the Gamblers, Hyde was ranked as the 3rd best back in this year’s somewhat shallow pool, but with Bishop Sankey and Jeremy Hill both selected out of the T-Draft, Hyde’s value soared. Houston lost Michael Turner this offseason, so signing Hyde has to be a priority.
Houston: LB C. J. Mosely (Alabama)
NFL Competitor: Baltimore Ravens
Mosely is a solid all-purpose backer, perhaps best used on the strong side, and excels at run coverage. Baltimore and Houston both need his youthful energy at that position so expect his final contract to be over market value since neither club wants to lose out on their pick.
Tampa Bay: QB Blake Bortles (UCF)
NFL Competitor: Jacksonville Jaguars
It will be an in-state battle between the Bandits and the Jags for this UCF product. Tampa Bay wants to groom Bortles behind Daunte Culpepper, while the Jaguars seem ready for an immediate transition to a new starter. That difference in trajectory could be a problem for Tampa Bay, who were hoping to sign Bortles quickly, before his NFL destination was known.
Las Vegas: CB Justin Gilbert (OK State)
NFL Competitor: Cleveland Browns
Another of the rare breed of players on teams not included in the Territorial Draft, Gilbert is a solid zone corner who needs to work on his bump & run a bit, especially if he signs with a Dick LeBeau team. Cleveland may have to expend a lot of funds to land Johnny Manziel, who they took earlier in the draft, so that may bode well for the Thunder.
Orlando (PIT): LB Anthony Barr (UCLA)
NFL Competitor: Minnesota Vikings
Barr going unprotected by the LA Express was a bit of a surprise, but one that Orlando could not let slip by. They traded up with Pittsburgh to get a shot at Barr, and now look to compete with the Vikings to land him.
Portland: WR Sammy Watkins (Clemson)
NFL Competitor: Buffalo Bills
What we have here are two teams known for being a bit on the cheap side, both fighting over a player with a lot of playmaking ability. Buffalo used a much earlier pick on Watkins than Portland, which could bode well for them as they can use more cap room to sign the Clemson wideout. Portland will need to be creative to offer a more enticing deal.
St. Louis: OT Jake Matthews (Texas A&M)
NFL Competitor: Atlanta Falcons
The second tackle off the board (Lewan-JAX), and in some estimations a better pass protector than Lewan. The Skyhawks have a lot to offer the rookie, including a known commodity at QB and a dynamic HB in Eddie Lacy, but will team fit compete with some solid NFL money?
Baltimore: DT Dominque Easley (Florida)
NFL Competitor: New England Patriots
Easley was viewed by many as a late first round or early 2nd round pick, so this was seen as a stretch by many, but sometimes taking a player as a stretch is a good way to improve your odds of signing him away from the NFL. That has already proven to be the case with Easley, who signed with Baltimore only 2 days after being chosen by the NFL Patriots as well.
Ohio: S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
NFL Competitor: Green Bay Packers
Perhaps the best player name in the entire draft, Clinton-Dix is also an outstanding player who could start immediately for either club. No real territorial advantage for either team as the Alabama product has to choose between cold late season games in Green Bay or cold early season games in Columbus.
Pittsburgh: TE Eric Ebron (UNC)
NFL Competitor: Detroit Lions
The Maulers are hoping to provide Andy Dalton with a reliable target over the middle, but the Lions have exactly the same thought as they try to build around QB Matthew Stafford. Detroit has more swagger, having made the playoffs 2 of the past 3 years, and a more stable coaching situation. This could be a tough get for the Maulers.
Birmingham: CB Kyle Fuller (Va Tech)
NFL Competitor: Chicago Bears
Birmingham is rooting for the Bears to land Khalil Mack away from the Dragons, because that expensive signing would all but guarantee that Fuller would get a better offer from the Stallions than from the NFL Bears. If Seattle lands Mack, then the Bears will double down on Fuller to ensure they don’t miss out on both first round picks.
Atlanta: C Marcus Martin (USC)
NFL Competitor: San Francisco 49ers
Another club hoping their NFL counterpart spends big on an earlier selection. If the Niners can land Carlos Hyde, that helps Atlanta outbid them for Martin, but if not, then it could be a tough negotiation for the Fire.
Denver: DE Stephon Tuitt (Notre Dame)
NFL Competitor: Pittsburgh Steelers
Two lunchpail clubs fighting over a lunchpail DE. What could be more perfect? We like Denver’s chances for one big reason, Tuitt was Pittsburgh’s 2nd round pick, so the NFL rookie cap structure hinders their bidding ability, while Denver can use 1st round money to lure the big DE to the Mile High City.
Chicago: QB Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville)
NFL Competitor: Minnesota Vikings
Both the Machine and the Vikings have what appears to be a 1-year development plan for the athletic Bridgewater. Chicago wants him to watch and learn behind Brady Quinn, Minnesota behind Christian Ponder. Problem for Minnesota is that Ponder is a younger player and the potential for Bridgewater to not get his shot any time soon is more tangible in the NFL than with the Machine.
Los Angeles: WR Jordan Matthews (Vanderbilt)
NFL Competitor: Philadelphia Eagles
The Express make the predictable pick, a WR who they hope can stand in for the retired Keyshawn Johnson. Matthews is a tall, rangy, deep ball receiver like Johnson in his early years, which would be a good fit for the Express. However, it would also be a good fit for the Eagles, so let the bidding begin.
Texas: DT Ra’Shede Hageman (Minnesota)
NFL Competitor: Atlanta Falcons
Another reach on defense, but another situation where the use of a 1st round pick on Hageman puts the USFL club at an advantage over the NFL club, as Atlanta can only spend 2nd round cap limits on the Minnesota product.
Washington: WR Kelvin Benjamin (FSU)
NFL Competitor: Carolina Panthers
We like Washington’s chances of landing the FSU product. The possibility of joining a perennial playoff contender, one with not one, but two solid QBs and a respected offensive mind like Sean Payton, those seem enticing factors for a player who will get paid regardless of the team he picks.
Charlotte: OG Xavier Su’A-Filo (LA)
NFL Competitor: Houston Oilers
The Oilers moved back up in to the 1st round for a 2nd pick and that could be bad news for Charlotte, who hoped Su’A-Filo would fall to the 2nd in the NFL draft. Houston is an attractive destination for the Samoan guard, while Charlotte could be a tougher sell.
New Orleans: CB Darqueze Dennard (Michigan State)
NFL Competitor: Cincinnati Bengals
The upside for the Breakers is that the Bengals are notoriously cheap. The downside is that Dennard’s parents attended every game at Michigan State, and that tradition is a lot easier for them to keep up if he plays in Ohio than if he is in Louisiana.
Oakland: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (Eastern Illinois)
NFL Competitor: New England Patriots
The Invaders are hoping to groom Garoppolo behind Harrington. The Patriots are once again looking for a solution at QB, so Garoppolo could start in Foxboro. That may be enough to offset the 1st round, 2nd round disparity between the two selections, that and the higher cap for QBs in the NFl system.
Philadelphia: CB Jason Verrett (TCU)
NFL Competitor: San Diego Chargers
We are still somewhat shocked that Verrett fell this far. He was seen as a Top 15 player in nearly every mock draft. That could be good news for the Stars, but now they have to compete with San Diego, who selected Verrett slightly earlier at pick 25 of 32, not 27 of 28. Is that difference really important? Hard to say.
Arizona: OT Ju’Wuan James (Tennessee)
NFL Competitor: Miami Dolphins
Can the Wranglers just keep winning? Not only did they win their first league title last year, winning 15 of 16 games along the way, but they land their target at OT and sign him only days after he was also picked by Miami of the NFL. Things continue to come up sunny for the team from the Valley of the Sun.
We are less than 2 weeks away from the 2nd NFL-USFL transfer window of the offseason, and for USFL fans, this one is the one that tends to produce them most benefit for the league. With the NFL having just concluded their season, the pool of available free agents is at its peak, just as the USFL list was back in September. That means a lot of talent looking to use the two leagues to push up the offers and provide maximum benefits for the player. So, just who is out there at this time for the 28 USFL clubs to consider? Who will make the leap from fall to spring and begin their 2014 season within the next 4-6 weeks? We have reviewed the NFL restricted and unrestricted free agent pools and selected who we believe are the 25 players that USFL clubs should be scouting, interviewing, and negotiating to sign. We know that many will end up remaining with the NFL, but we should expect that some of these names will be announced at USFL games as soon as Week 1.
QUARTERBACK
Only two quarterbacks make our list, one a younger player with potential to grow, the other a known commodity, but one who comes with a lot of baggage. Will teams take the PR hit by signing former Atlanta Falcon and Philadelphia Eagle Michael Vick? The controversial dual threat QB has lost a bit of the dynamic run ability he had with the Falcons, but his time in Philadelphia with the Eagles has shown that he can still be a very effective starting QB. The other potential starter in the pool this year is Colt McCoy, the UT product who has had sporadic opportunities to prove himself in the NFL, often with bad teams. We could see McCoy being a “sign and develop” prospect for any one of several teams that have veteran QBs nearing their final seasons, teams like Las Vegas (Plummer), Tampa Bay (Culpepper) or Houston (Hasselbeck).
HALFBACK
There are three solid options at the tailback position, particularly if you are looking for a speed back or a 3-down back who is a bit more elusive than powerful. No true grinders in the bunch, but when we look at former Giant Ahmad Bradshaw, former Colt Donald Brown, and former Copperhead Chris Johnson, we see a lot of potential for break away speed, one-cut moves, and use in the passing game. Of the three, the biggest question mark is Johnson. The one-time 2,000 yard back has not been the same since coming back from ACL injury, but could still be a good option for a team willing to nurse his recovery. Brown and Bradshaw do not have as high a ceiling, but their floor is also not as tricky. You take Johnson, you may have a boom or bust proposition, whereas with either of the other two you more or less know what you will have.
TIGHT END
One name rises to the top of this list, but is it because of his own talent or the name he carries. Kellen Winslow II certainly has the pedigree to be a game-changing tight end, but his short NFL career has not yet shown that he can live up to the expectations, and certainly not the legacy of his father. For the team that goes after Winslow, the goal has to be for them to find ways to make him into the receiver that most expected coming out of Miami.
WIDE RECEIVER
Speed with height or quick cut escapability? Those are the two options at the wide receiver spot. The best two receivers coming onto the market are very different in their demeanors and in their style of play. Kenny Britt is solid as a straight line route runner and can go up and make the tough red zone catch above the corner or safety. Jeremy Maclin is best used underneath, where his quick cut ability and off the line elusiveness can turn a 3-yard gain into a 15-yarder. So, what is the interest of USFL teams, a possible slot or 2nd receiver with good inside moves or a bigger body to taken on the DBs and come down with the ball?
OFFENSIVE LINE
This is often an area where the transfer market has the biggest impact, but this year the depth of talent available is just not there. We list 4 linemen among our 25, but none of them would be considered top 10 in our list, or clear-cut starters in the league. At tackle we have Anthony Collins and Austin Howard, at guard we like Brian Waters, and then at center we list Brian De La Puente. We could see any of these four as rotational starters in the USFL, though none of them feels like an immediate impact player.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Two solid defensive tackles and a potential 10-15 sack DE are who we see on the defensive line. Of the three, the most expensive, but also the most potentially impactful, is former NY Giant Justin Tuck. Tuck can be a very effective edge rusher, especially when paired with a block-absorbing DT inside. With several USFL teams desperately trying to find an answer on the edge, an impactful rusher who forces teams to adjust their blocking schemes, we expect to see Tuck as a popular target for potential interleague transfer. Inside we have both Randy Starks and Jonathan Babineaux. You don’t here their names called a lot, but when you watch film of both you see how effective they can be at controlling the line and providing cover for aggressive LB play behind them.
LINEBACKER
Speaking of aggressive linebacker play, our Top 25 has three names that should excite USFL fans. That group is led by former Redskin Brian Orakpo. A natural leader and strong run defender, Orakpo could be the key to a defensive scheme on any of the league’s 4-3 defenses. We expect that defensive-minded coaches like Jim Johnson, Dick LeBeau, and Jim Tomsula will certainly be interested in Orakpo. Perhaps not as dynamic as Orakpo, we also have Darryl Sharpton and Paris Lenon in the free agent pool. We actually like both more in 3-4 lineups where they can roam behind the line and attack the gaps.
CORNERBACK
Perhaps no other position has the attention of the USFL quite like cornerback. The reason? The potential to land a true shut down corner. There are two free agents this year who fit that category. First up is Aqib Talib, who is a bona fide All-NFL selection and who could fetch a pretty penny from either league. Just a small step below Talib is another outstanding corner, Jabari Greer, who works well in the nickel as well as in zone coverages.
SAFETY
Looks like a good year for the defensive backfield as we have another strong group in the safety position. We like three players as strong options in an area where several teams have need. Buffalo’s Donte Whitner, Dallas’s Antoine Bethea, and Seattle’s Chris Clemons are all solid tacklers and good in coverage. We could see all three being immediate starters across the USFL.
SPECIAL TEAMERS
It is rare to get excited about kickers and punters, but we have two of the most highly-touted specialists in this year’s free agent pool. After a long career in New England, Adam Vinatieri is now a free agent. Known for his ability to shake off pressure and make the tough kick when it is most needed, Vinatieri is about as clutch as they come. Punter Pat McAfee is known more for his flamboyant personality and willingness to make tackles as for the power of his leg, but that should not make us forget that McAfee is one of the most effective punters in the NFL, a kicker who can flip field position or pin a team back at any time.
LEAGUE PUSHES INTERNAL RELOCATION PLAN FOR LAS VEGAS
Following the surprising decision to allow the Moores/Tu investment group to purchase the Las Vegas Thunder with a plan in place to relocate the team to San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium in the spring of 2015, the same year that the new domed stadium will open just off the Las Vegas strip, questions have been flying about what the future for the league in Las Vegas will be. With the league having taken on not only their own commitment to stadium construction, but also the share originally assigned to the Las Vegas franchise and their ownership, the USFL is in nearly $600M into the project, a project that now does not have a franchise attached to it.
Well, the first question about the situation has now been answered. The USFL has announced that there will be a concerted effort to place a team in the new facility in the spring of 2015 and that the primary vehicle for the establishment of a new Las Vegas franchise will be relocation of an existing franchise. That announcement has sent ripples throughout the league as it essentially guarantees that another city will lose their USFL club within the next 2 years. So, just who is at risk? That is a complex question, though we believe we know the first piece of the puzzle.
We know that the league is heavily invested in the television contracts which provide the largest portion of league revenue. The reality of the move from Las Vegas to San Diego is that it provided a significant shift from a small media market to a larger market. That benefits the league as they work with ABC/ESPN, Fox and NBC. But what the league will absolutely want to avoid is to lose a large market in order to fill the gap in Las Vegas. As the league explores options, reaches out to individual franchises, and debates best options, the first limitation we anticipate being a major factor in a relocation decision is one of market size.
There are currently six USFL franchises whose market size is smaller than the Las Vegas market. And while many are in growth areas, there are few markets that are growing faster than Las Vegas as an MSA, which means that each of these markets is likely to remain below Las Vegas in market size. So, just which fanbases should be concerned about their franchises and the chance that their club will be sacrificed to salvage Las Vegas. The six smallest markets currently in the USFL are largely in the U.S. south, with Las Vegas ranked as the 29th largest metro area in the USA, you have Columbus (32nd), Nashville (35th), Jacksonville (38th), Memphis (45th) and Birmingham (47th) below them.
What makes this pool of potential relocation targets so interesting is that while the market share and market size is smaller in these markets, many of these clubs represent teams with strong attendance averages, including high-attendance tentpost franchises such as Jacksonville, Memphis, Birmingham and New Orleans. It seems almost inconceivable that the league would look at a franchise like Birmingham, a founding franchise with an average attendance regularly over 45,000 per game, and see a team that is ripe for relocation. Similarly, New Orleans and Jacksonville have also been strong attendance leaders and solidly-run franchises for decades. So, who does that leave as potential targets for a move to Las Vegas?
The most obvious answer is Nashville. Already embroiled in a nasty stadium lease negotiation with both the NFL and the stadium authority. The Knights have been a strong attendance club, but have only been in Nashville for around a decade, not for 30+ years as with several other clubs. We have seen already that the owners of the Knights are using the Las Vegas situation to try to gain leverage on the stadium authority. Could that leverage turn into a push to move the team from the South to the Southwest?
The other fanbase that is feeling nervous right now is in Ohio, where the Glory have 20 years in Columbus, but are still playing their games at Ohio Stadium, an oversized facility that houses Ohio State, but even in good years is half-empty on game day. Ohio’s average attendance of 40,012 in 2013 was an improvement over the past 3 years, when the club’s on-field struggles dropped the Glory’s regular attendance below 40,000. A better 2013 campaign has helped to build some bounceback in both season tickets and overall attendance, but the Glory remain very much a secondary tenant of Ohio Stadium, and their gameday revenue is among the bottom 10 in the league, despite the size of the facility and the exclusivity of the Glory in a market that only has NHL hockey as a competitor.
So, a rough patch if you are a Knights fan or a member of the Glory Nation, and potential trouble for the league as no market is eager to see their club head elsewhere. And, while we look at these two markets as perhaps the most desirable for the league, there is also the very real possibility that an owner in another market will make a pitch. The league is certainly not excited about the prospect of losing a New Jersey, Houston, or Detroit franchise, for the right deal, they may very well move in that direction and then speed up the expansion timeline to restock a club in the city, much like the NFL did when the Cleveland Browns moved to Baltimore, but their history and identity remained behind to be taken up by an expansion club. The Las Vegas situation is certainly one we will be following throughout the year, particularly as there is great impetus on the league to put the pieces in place to have Las Vegas represented in 2015, the same year the Thunder will officially reside in San Diego.
We will be back in 4 weeks, returning for our USFL Preview Edition. At that point, with the season ready to kick off, we should have a clear picture of the draft signings, NFL transfers, and those last second moves that impact rosters and depth charts. We will review the offseason’s biggest moves and preview the 32nd season of the Kings of the Spring, the USFL.
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