The One Seeds prevail and set up one of the most anticipated Summer Bowl matchups in memory. It will be the Philadelphia Stars, champions of the East, taking on the Arizona Wranglers, 15-1 champions of the West. Two teams with outstanding defenses, deep threats at WR, and a run game that can take over the pace of play and the clock. There are concerns about one key figure, injured in the Conference Final, but there is also amazing energy around the game and the matchup as Arizona strives to win their first title in the club's 31-season history, while Philadelphia seeks to become only the 2nd club, after Houston, to win 4 USFL titles. We will recap how both clubs got through the Conference Title Games to be in the big dance, preview the matchup, and catch you up on all the league news this week. So let's get right to it with the 2013 Conference Championships.
NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS 19 PHILADELPHIA STARS 24
In a championship matchup, if I tell you that one team committed more turnovers, lost the time of possession battle, and was outgained by nearly 70 yards, you might well be expected to say that the team I am describing lost, and lost handily. And yet, the 2013 Philadelphia Stars bucked the odds and found a way to win a very challenging matchup with the New Orleans Breakers. Aided by a 161-38 advantage on the ground, and fortunate that New Orleans was only able to muster 6 points off of three Star turnovers, Philadelphia outlasted the Breakers to return to the Summer Bowl as Eastern Conference Champions. It will be their 6th appearance in the USFL title game, firmly cementing the Stars as one of the blue bloods of the league.
But this honor did not come easy for the Stars, not by a longshot. New Orleans came into the game with a solid defense and a dynamic passing game led by QB Drew Brees, and that helped them stay in this game, despite trailing for most of the game. Brees would finish with an impressive 34 of 45 passing, throwing for 391 yards and 2 scores. Compared to the more modest 19 of 29 for 183 of Matt Gutierrez, the Breaker QB certainly had the advantage in the passing game, but when we turn our attention to the rushing stats we can see the Breakers’ biggest weakness and Philadelphia’s key strength. While Stars’ HB Steve Slaton had a second consecutive 100-yard game after returning from injury, rushing for 123 yards and 2 scores, the best New Orleans could muster was 29 yards on 12 carries from Mike Tolbert. Matt Forte, the de facto starter, would get only 7 carries and could only produce 10 yards, a measly 1.4 yards per carry. That differential proved fatal for the Breakers.
New Orleans put the only points up in a tentative first quarter, a 31-yard field goal that came when the Breaker drive was stifled by Philadelphia just inside the red zone. Neither team had done much in the quarter, but a single play, a nice Brees to LaFell pass, had gotten the Breakers into range for Caleb Sturgis, and he helped put them up after 15 minutes of action.
But, Philadelphia, taking the cue to start mixing up their offense, responded with a strong second quarter. Based largely on the run game of Slaton, Stacy and Leon Washington, the Stars got their kicker into range and Mike Nugent responded with a 43-yarder to even the score. 5 minutes later, Philadelphia had the ball back and once again was driving. Steve Slaton hit a big play, running for 33 yards on a simple first down counter tre play. That would lead to Matt Gutierrez connecting on his lone TD of the day, a slant route to James Hardy to give Philly the 10-3 lead.
After a quick 3-and-out by the Breakers, Philadelphia had the chance to put the game away before the half, but receiver Marshall Newhouse, was stripped of the ball after his first catch of the game and New Orleans’s Cameron Jordan was fortunate to fall on the ball, giving New Orleans a chance to even the score. They struggled to move the ball against the Stars and were forced to settle for a second Sturgis field goal. Philadelphia went into the half up 10-6, but cautious about hurting themselves with more turnovers.
The opening drive of the second half gave Philly the advantage they had been seeking at the end of the first half. A controlled 12-play drive led to Steve Slaton’s 5-yard slashing run to the end zone and Philadelphia was up 17-6. This could have been the end of the game for the Breakers, but Drew Brees was not ready to concede the game. He led New Orleans on their first touchdown drive, highlighted by a 66-yard catch and run by Early Doucet. The play should have been a 13-yard completion, but when the corner and safety sandwiched Doucet, the impact led to both defenders falling to the ground, but left Doucet still standing. He raced down to the 2 before being forced out by Jairus Byrd. Two plays later Donnie Avery caught the play action pass from Brees for six. The Breakers went for 2 to get within a field goal, but failed on the attempt, leaving them trailing by 5, but having sent a message to Philadelphia that this game was far from over.
Most of the fourth quarter saw the two teams fail to string together drives. Brees was picked on a tipped ball, Leon Washington saw a catch and run turn into a fumble, and both teams stood pat for most of the quarter. Philadelphia took over after a good defensive stand, getting the ball on their own 31 with 5:07 left to play. They would mount a 9-play drive, benefitting from a key offsides call against New Orleans DE Ty Warren on a 3rd and 3 to keep the drive alive. Just at the 2-minute warning, Steve Slaton added his 2nd touchdown and once again Philadelphia was up by 12, sitting at 24-12 with only 2 minutes left.
New Orleans would need to score quickly and then get a break on the onsides kick. They moved the ball effectively against Philadelphia’s shell coverage, with Brees completing 4 of 6 passes, until finally he found Coby Fleener in the endzone with 57 seconds left. New Orleans was out of time outs, but they were back within 1 score and could get the ball back with a successful onside kick.
Both teams put in their hands team, but the star of the moment would be Philadelphia’s All-USFL corner, Quentin Jammer, who snapped the ball out of the air and fell to the ground. With no time outs left, New Orleans could not stop the clock. Matt Gutierrez took a knee, then another, and the Philadelphia Stars had their conference title and a ticket to Denver to play in Summer Bowl 2013.
OAKLAND INVADERS 6 ARIZONA WRANGLERS 20
A very different game took place in greater Phoenix, but one that exemplified the entire season for the Wranglers. Arizona would use a simply impassible defense and a patient, methodical offense, to overcome an early deficit and pull away for the victory that would send them to their first Summer Bowl in 8 years, and give them the chance to finally earn their first John Bassett Trophy.
In another game where the winner lost both the yardage and time of possession battle, the Wranglers bent but never broke, keeping Oakland out of the endzone despite 93 yards from Ryan Williams and 41 pass attempts by Joey Harrington. Arizona countered with 139 yards from game MVP Larry Fitzgerald, but were somewhat hobbled by an injury to league MVP Frank Gore, an injury that leaves his presence in the Summer Bowl very much in question.
After a first quarter that saw both teams struggle to get past midfield, Oakland caught a break when HB Stevan Ridley mishandled a toss and the ball was ruled a backwards lateral. Recovered by Oakland’s Nick Koutavides, the turnover, Arizona’s only on the day, would put Oakland in field goal range, and when they failed to gain any yards in 3 attempts, they settled for a 48-yard kick from Mike Hollis, the Special Teams player of the year.
After a 3-and-out from Arizona, Oakland would again have good field position, and would double their advantage before the half by putting Hollis in position once again for a kick. Oakland went into the half with a 6-0 lead, but there was certainly no sense that they had this game won. It was too tight and Arizona’s offense had kept them from even a red zone appearance.
Arizona would make a statement coming out of the half, driving the ball deep into Oakland territory before a holding call produced a 3rd and 16 on the 22 yard line. The 3rd down pass missed its mark, but Arizona finally put some points on the board, cutting the lead to 6-3 with a David Buehler kick. They would hold off Oakland on the next drive and then get the two game-defining plays that their offense needed.
The first was a third an 9 throw that Larry Fitzgerald snagged over the outstretched arms of the corner and turned into a 23-yard gain. The very next play, Carr found a rare target, backup tight end James Casey. Used mostly as a blocker, Casey was covered by the MLB, and that proved to be a mismatch. He took an 8-yard pass, got some blockers, including a devastating hit by Rob Gronkowski on the safety, and rumbled 48 yards for the first touchdown of the game. Arizona now led 10-6 with 4 minutes left in the third quarter.
Oakland would need to respond, but the response they gave was not at all what they needed. On a simple 1st down run, Ryan Williams was stood up by Larry English, which allowed Karlos Dansby to lay a hit on him that popped the ball loose. A dogpile resulted, and at the bottom of that pile was Nate Allen, who came away with the ball and gave Arizona the chance to build a two-score lead. The Wranglers would do just that only 5 plays later when Stevan Ridley made up for his earlier fumble by turning in an 8-yard scoring run.
Up 17-6, Arizona’s defense was now in its element. The fourth quarter would produce 3 of the Wrangler’s 4 sacks, along with 2 failed fourth down conversion attempts, and along the way the Wranglers added 3 more points to make the final difference an even 14 points. Oakland never got deeper than the Arizona 42, and could not even bring out Hollis to chip away at the lead. It was a display of defensive control that we had seen all season long from the Wranglers. Despite the loss of Frank Gore for much of the game, and 7 sacks of David Carr, the Wranglers had held off the Invaders and now would head to Denver to face Philadelphia in Summer Bowl 2013.
Tampa Bay Seeking to Replace McGahee Even Before Free Agency Opens
We are not sure if this is a shrewd move by the Bandits or a sign that the front office is panicking after the somewhat unexpected announcement by Willis McGahee that he is retiring from football, but Tampa Bay has made a trade to acquire the type of dual threat back that they prefer, even as we are still a week away from free agency opening. The Bandits have sent a third round pick in this season’s draft to the Washington Federals to acquire HB Jahvid Best.
Best, who come to the Federals from Seattle this year, had largely settled into the relief and occasional third down role, rushing for 450 yards on 131 carries and catching 24 balls out of the backfield for Washington, after serving in more of a primary role as a Dragon. His best season to date came in 2012, when he reached 639 yards. In his career he has yet to top 3.4 yards per carry, so there is some concern that he is not the player that Tampa Bay needs to fill McGahee’s role or his numbers.
The expectation is that Coach Shula wanted a veteran back who could take on some of McGahee’s carries, but that the Bandits will also look to the rookie pool of backs to complement Best. The Bandits would have the T-Draft rights to Florida State back Devonta Freeman, which makes some sense for them. What this means for current backup Shane Vereen remains to be seen, but it would appear that Tampa Bay feels some degree of urgency in finding a replacement for McGahee’s numbers, even if that will be through a HB-by-committee format.
Bulls Surprise Many with Early Coach Signing
While we knew that Jacksonville was eager to get a new staff in place, many expected that they were holding out for one of the two Summer Bowl participant coordinators to become available, with primary focus expected to be on Arizona DC Vic Fangio. It appears that the process either proved to slow for the Bulls or that they had such a good interview with one candidate that they changed directions and went with the quick hire. That hire is former New Orleans Breakers’ head coach Mike Nolan. Nolan, who was let go by the Breakers after the 2011 season, has spent the past two seasons as an analyst on the ABC pregame USFL show and on their NCAA coverage, but was seeking to return to coaching.
While many respect Nolan’s record with the Breakers, one in which he took a 1-13 squad to the playoffs in his first year and then for 2 years after that, reaching the Eastern Conference championship in 2009, the sudden shift away from other high-demand candidates did take both the fanbase and the local media by surprise. Nolan had interviewed with the team last week, following earlier interviews with both Vic Fangio and Greg Roman. It would appear that the interview last week went very well, that Nolan was able to speak to the needs of the team and the direction he would take them, and that this impressed Bulls brass enough to put Nolan in place and get started on rebuilding a roster that had some pretty obvious holes.
And so the first of five USFL coaching vacancies is filled. We now turn to the 4 remaining teams to see if any will be quick to land a coach or if any will use the growingly popular strategy of waiting out the NFL season to then choose from available coaches from both leagues, a move that brought Andy Reid to the LA Express last year.
Washington DC Rex Ryan to Visit Pittsburgh
We are not done with the coaching news, as Pittsburgh is our second of the five teams where we turn our focus. The Maulers parted ways with Ron Rivera after a 7-year run that peaked in 2011 with a Summer Bowl appearance. Rivera’s departure, despite a 13-3 record in Pittsburgh in that same season, came after back to back losing seasons. And yet, of the teams that are looking for new coaches, Pittsburgh seems to be the one on the best footing. They finished 2013 at 7-9, just missing .500 for a second year in a row, but finished 4-2 down the stretch and boasted some solid wins in their first year back in the very tough NE Division, knocking off The Breakers and the Stars, the two teams in this week’s Conference Title Game among their 7 wins.
And so, the club is now in the hunt for a coach who can get them over the hump. They appear to be starting by looking within the division at Federals’ DC Rex Ryan. The outspoken son of former USFL and NFL legend Buddy Ryan, Rex is in his 2nd year with the Federals, and helped to rebuild the Feds defense to a Top 6 team in scoring defense and a top 5 team against the run. Ryan has not been shy in Washington about his interest in eventually becoming a head coach in the USFL after a short stint in that role with the New York Jets of the NFL. Opinionated, and often confrontational with the press, Ryan’s tenure in New York was short but fiery. In DC he has gotten into a bit of hot water thanks to his weekly radio show, where he routinely criticizes USFL officiating and what he perceives as a leaguewide tilting of the table towards offense, which is a strange thing to say when your club is built on defense first, and when the best record in the league, that of Arizona, is clearly due to defensive might.
Ryan is a controversial figure, to be sure, but he does have a track record of building solid defenses, and with the Maulers finishing 2013 with the 26th ranked scoring defense, it is certainly an area that ownership would like to see improve in 2014.
Former Knights Coach Jim Johnson a Popular Choice in Michigan
One last coaching note, as local sports radio has sent a clear message to the Michigan Panthers after their decision to remove longstanding coach Dick LeBeau from his role as head coach. A recent 5-day survey of fans led by sports radio station KDKA (93.7 The Fan), produced a landslide victory for former Nashville Knights coach Jim Johnson. Fans regularly cited Johnson’s teams as disciplined on defense, something Michigan certainly was not this year, and pointed out that the former Knights’ coach had his club competitive and fighting for a division title nearly every season of his long tenure.
We are not going to argue with them. For a coach who never reached the pinnacle of a Summer Bowl title, Johnson has had a very long tenure in Nashville, and earned the respect of the league time and time again with his team’s performances and quality of play. He would certainly be a solid choice for a Panthers squad that hopes to regain the glory of its former years.
Gore To Be Gametime Decision for Wranglers
We finish our run through the stories of the week with the one that has the greatest potential to impact the Summer Bowl. Frank Gore left the Western Conference Championship early with what appeared to be a gimpy ankle. While X-rays and MRI’s revealed nothing beyond a strain, the concern now is that Gore may be sidelined this week, or that he will be in the lineup but significantly limited in his touches. Either scenario would be a major issue for the Wrangler offense, which has been about as centered on a halfback as any in the league this year.
Gore led all rushers in the USFL with 380 carries, which for any back is a major workload, but when you consider the beating that the former Knight back has taken in the league, and his age at 32, clearly can lead to breakdowns. Gore, who was just announced this week as the league’s MVP for his 1,520 yard season, carried the ball 20 times for 94 yards in the divisional playoff, but was only able to add 7 carries to the Arizona offense this week before he was sidelined with the ankle injury.
Team officials say it will be a gametime decision, but even if he is able to get into action, just how effective he can be, and for how long, is a major concern for Gore. When you consider that the two other backs on the roster, Stevan Ridley and Jonathan Dwyer, combined for only 114 carries, not even a third of Gore’s workload, the concern will be that without Gore at full strength, the Wrangler offense may have a very difficult go in the most important game of the season, of many seasons, for the Wranglers.
Frank Gore’s injury, as outlined above, is the primary story of the buildup to Summer Bowl 2013. With Arizona having no other injuries reported and Philadelphia moving both of their cornerbacks, Bradley Fletcher and Sam Shields from questionable to probably on Wednesday, the Gore situation will be the one injury that all fans are focused on.
ARZ—HB Frank Gore (PRO)
PHI—WR Reche Caldwell (OUT), CB Bradley Fletcher (PRO), CB Sam Shields (PRO)
League Award Winners & ALL-USFL Team Named
The 2013 USFL Honors were held this Tuesday night in Denver’s Red Rocks Amphitheatre, the first time the event has been held at an outdoor venue, but what a venue it was. Set against the rock formations famous for some of the most celebrated musical performances of the past two decades, the honors took on a more casual, but very engaging tone. Players from across the league hobnobbed with sports media celebrities, while the two large screens on either side of the stage provided views of the various speeches and highlight reels of the event.
It was an event highlighted not only by the venue, but by some surprise announcements among the night’s big winners. For the first time in 20 years neither the MVP or the Offensive Player of the Year was a quarterback. Add to that a Defensive Player of the Year who came almost out of nowhere and we had a night of surprises. Here is our rundown of the night’s big awards as well as the newest All-USFL team for 2013.
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: With Arizona’s success this year, one game away from an unbeaten season, it is no surprise that various members of the Wrangler squad received honors on the night, and the least surprising of the three major awards the club collected was that of league MVP, given to halfback Frank Gore. Gore led the league in carries and rushing yards, and was the engine that powered the Arizona offense all season long. After years of outstanding play in Nashville, Gore, the 2005 USFL Rookie of the Year, gets his second major award this season, his first with the Wranglers.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: With Gore winning MVP, and with no quarterbacks among the favorites for OPOTY, we got another modest surprise, as the award goes to a player on an 8-8 squad, which is somewhat rare. But when that player led the league in both receptions and receiving yards, largely putting his entire team on his shoulders, it is no surprise that Steve Smith of Ohio was recognized. Smith’s 123 receptions and 1,586 yards were both impressive feats, particularly for a team with a largely undervalued QB in Chris Weinke, and on a team that was not consistently in a position to throw the ball deep. Smith’s numbers alone likely did not get him the award, it was also his leadership on a team that stepped up this season and seems to have turned a corner after several years in the Central Division basement.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Here we have perhaps the biggest surprise of the year, with Arizona DE Adam Carriker taking the honors. Often overshadowed on his own team by LB Karlos Dansby or safety Troy Polamalu, there is no denying that Carriker put together a career year with the Wranglers this season. The former Nebraska Cornhusker led the Wranglers with 17 sacks this season, paired with Larry English’s 13 to form one of the most effective duos in the league. He also produced 44 tackles, a career best, and a safety. These numbers did not put him at the top of the league leaders in any of these categories, but it was the role he played within Arizona’s system that was recognized. It is hard to deny that a Wrangler should win a defensive award this year, as the club finished 1st in both scoring defense and yardage allowed, giving up a measly 273 yards per game and only 12.5 points each outing. Carriker is essentially the face that will represent the entire squad as it truly was a team defense that won the day for Arizona week after week.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: A lot of great contenders this year, from the big play speedsters like Keenan Allen, Aaron Dobson and Adam Thielen, to slashing back LeVeon Bell, and breakout defenders like New Orleans’s Kevin Minter, but at the end of the voting, St. Louis running back Eddie Lacy stood above the others and stood out as the 2013 Rookie of the Year. Lacy finished the season with 1,289 yards, good enough for fourth among all backs and a mere 56 yards ahead of the second place vote getter, Leveon Bell. Lacy added 10 touchdowns to the Skyhawk offense this year, and was a more than adequate replacement for the retired Antowain Smith, exactly why he was chosen by the Skyhawks in the draft. In a good rookie year, with several big performances this year, Lacy is now considered the best of a good draft class.
COACH OF THE YEAR: Yes, there were certainly strong years put out there by new coaches such as LA’s Andy Reid, and by teams on the rebound, but nothing could compare to the campaign that the Arizona Wranglers put together. Improving from 6-10 in 2012 to 15-1, a 9 game swing in one season, was about as impressive as any year-to-year shift we have ever seen, and when you add to that the dominant performance by the Wrangler D and the outstanding season from HB Frank Gore and WR Larry Fitzgerald, this was a bit of a runaway election for Jim Tomsula. Tomsula, in his 5th season with the Wranglers makes his second playoff appearance, and now is one game away from possibly bringing to the desert the first title in the club’s 31 years of existence. With the best record we have seen from a USFL teams since the legendary 2002 Ohio Glory’s unbeaten run, Jim Tomsula is a very deserving COTY winner.
Finally, the All-USFL team also shows how strong the Wranglers’ season has been, with six Arizona players making the squad, though Larry Fitzgerald, who led all receivers in yards per catch, was noticeably absent. The 8-8 Bandits actually had the second largest All-USFL representation, with four players in all, including QB Daunte Culpepper and WR Vincent Jackson. They were followed by Texas, Washington, Charlotte, and Oakland, each with three. Here is your full 2013 All-USFL Team:
QB J. Flacco (TEX), D. Culpepper (TBY), E. Manning (MEM)
HB F. Gore (ARZ), D. Martin (CHI), D. McCallister (WSH)
FB R. Razzano (TEX)
TE K. Everett (LV), K. Davis (WSH)
WR V. Jackson (TBY), S. Smith (OHI), M. Colston (TEX)
V. Cruz (PIT), J. Blackmon (DAL)
OT L. Brown (TBY), B. Bulaga (STL), T. Clabo (CHA)
OG C. Warmack (ARZ), E. Brown (TBY), P. McQuistan (CHI)
C M. Pouncey (CHA), S. O’Hara (STL)
DE C. Campbell (ORL), A. Carriker (ARZ), T. Warren (NOR)
DT A. Haynesworth (ORL), S. Ellis (OAK), M. Pope (ARZ)
LB M. Vrabel (JAX), C. Matthews (LA), T. Suggs (OAK)
J. Farrior (HOU), K. Bullock (PIT), C. Blackburn (NJ)
CB A. Samuel (CHA), M. Boulware (HOU), J. Fletcher (DEN), S. Brown (WSH)
SS T. Carter (MGN), D. Morgan (ATL)
FS C. Fuller (ATL), T. Polumalu (ARZ)
K M. Hollis (OAK)
P S. Lechler (ARZ)
Johnson “Not Going Anywhere” Say Thunder
He may complain to the media and throw fits with the coaches, but the Las Vegas Thunder say they have no plans to acquiesce to Chad Johnson’s demands to be traded, certainly not until a new coach is in place. “It makes no sense to trade him now. Not until we know the offense we are going to run next year”, said an unnamed member of the team’s personnel team.
Johnson has been with the Thunder for 2 years after coming over from Boston in 2012. In that time he has 123 catches and nearly 2,000 yards receiving, including 1,129 this year. But he feels he could be among the league leaders if the were in an offense better suited to his style. The truth is that he was targeted 118 times this year, which is a very solid number. That he came up with only 54 catches may be more about him than the offense or the QB in Las Vegas. Johnson is not getting the wide open looks he had seen in Ohio and then in Boston. He is simply not as elusive and not as fast as he once was, and that fact has clearly not sunk in.
In Las Vegas, Johnson has been paired with T. J. Houshmandzadeh, and while Johnson’s numbers are generally better than those of Housh, it was Houshmandzadeh who led the team with 9 TD receptions, while Johnson had only 5, and that may be another factor pushing him to demand a trade. But the truth is that Las Vegas has Johnson under contract for 2 more years, and he is the highest paid player on the roster. With a new coaching staff expected in the next few weeks, perhaps Johnson should take a wait and see attitude, because that is what the team is taking, and with a lot still up in the air for the club, including ownership and possibly even their home city, now is not the time to be pushing for anything.
Houston Fans Split in their Loyalty
Fans of the Houston Gamblers find themselves in a quandary. On the one hand they have a pretty proven QB on their roster in Matt Hasselbeck, but on the other the team has the Territorial Draft rights to something of a college football phenomenon in Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel. Matt Hasselbeck has taken Houston to the playoffs consistently since arriving in Houston, including a USFL title only 3 seasons ago. But after three seasons with no playoff appearances, and with Hasselbeck turning 36 before the 2014 season, there is certainly a lot of buzz about the team taking a stab at Manziel.
Signing the Aggie QB and potential Heisman Winner would be a marketing coup for the Gamblers, with comparisons already being made between the college starter and former USFL legend Doug Flutie. Both are undersized scramblers with a knack for making big plays outside the pocket. Manziel is also seen as something of a gunslinger, much in the mold of Gambler legend Jim Kelly, though physically the two are nothing alike.
Houston is almost certainly not the only team interested in Manziel, and that means that the Gamblers could be receiving significant offers for that 1st round T-Draft pick. They could very likely parlay interest in Manziel into a deal that gets them multiple 1st rounders, both in the territorial and open drafts. That may be tempting, but to make that deal would put the Gamblers at risk of angering their own fanbase, a fanbase very familiar with Texas A&M and with Manziel. The other option is to do their best to sign the Aggie QB and hope he can grow into the game on what could be a swan song season for Hasselbeck in 2014. Some tough choices ahead for the Gamblers, but choices that could help them get back into contention in a SW Division that seems to have passed them by.
Here we go, the big show, the summer classic. The highlight of every USFL season, the 2013 Summer Bowl. We have a defensive juggernaut against one of the most consistent, well-coached, and talented rosters in the league. Arizona vs. Philadelphia live from the city where the USFL first held their title gam in 1983, Denver, Colorado. The league expects a sell-out crowd at Invesco Field, with a huge contingent of Wrangler fans making the drive up from Arizona, and a pretty good traveling fanbase for the Stars as well. Add to that all the pomp and celebration of Summer Bowl Week and the Mile High City will be felling the love this weekend.
So, what should we make of the game? This is a matchup of two 1-seeds, the best of each conference, and that has excitement and anticipation at an all time high. The two did not meet this year, and that air of the unknown is also building anticipation. They had only 1 shared opponent this year, the Dallas Roughnecks, and it is really not fair to judge Arizona’s two defeats of Dallas up against Philadelphia’s Week 16 loss to the Roughnecks, particularly because the Stars had already clinched the top seed in the east and spent most of the game with 2nd and 3rd stringers on the field.
So, who has the advantage? It depends on what you think wins championships. If you are a believer in the old saw that defense wins titles, well, Arizona is 1st in both points allowed and yardage, but Philadelphia is no slouch, finishing the year 2nd in scoring. If you believe in offense, the Stars are able to attack you in multiple ways, with backs who can both catch and run the ball, a pretty diverse receiver group, and an impressive rookie at TE with Travis Kelce. Arizona is a bit more traditional, pounding the rock with Frank Gore (if he is healthy) and then using the run to set up deep balls to Larry Fitzgerald.
Frank Gore’s health is the big unknown. Without him, Arizona could struggle to put points on the board, but Philadelphia cannot over-prepare for a Wrangler team without Gore in case the back is cleared to go on Sunday. We have in the coaching matchup the 2013 COTY in Jim Tomsula, up against Jim Harbaugh, who has led Philadelphia to a 90-45 record and 8 career playoff appearances since 2005. In Vic Fangio, the Wrangler DC, and Greg Roman, the Philadelphia OC, we have two of the hottest prospects in the Head Coach market, so there will be some battles of strategy between those two for certain.
But when we look at the on-field matchups, two things stand out. First, Matt Gutierrez, in his first full year as the starter, seems to have regressed a bit from his strong 2012 season, when he stepped in for the injured Kurt Warner. His QB Rating dipped from 121.7 to 92.1. Now, while a lot of teams would be very happy with a QB that has Gutierrez’s 2013 numbers, the fact is that while Gutierrez has dipped a bit after an impressive debut, David Carr has stepped up his game in 2013. His QB Rating has been on a steady upward climb over the past few seasons, from 85.0 in 2010 to 90.1, then 96.1, and then this year’s big leap up to 106.3. He has cut down on interceptions while having the strongest TD season of his career with 27 on the season.
In a game where the run games of both teams could be huge, and where both defenses have to respect the run, and a game where both defenses are very solid, we think QB play will be essential. If that is going to be the key factor in the game, we have to give a slight edge to the Wranglers, who just do not hurt themselves. They make you earn every yard and every point, and David Carr has been masterful at controlling the offense and keeping drives alive.
We are going to go with Arizona as our 2013 champion because we just have a bit more faith in Carr than Gutierrez after this year. Add to that the good feelings that having a brand new champion, a team seeking their first title in 31 seasons, would bring to the league, and we have to say we are just a bit in Arizona’s corner. We think it will be a tough, low-scoring, clean game, but we are going to pick the Wranglers to hold high the John Bassett trophy. Our pick is Arizona 17, Philadelphia 13.