You have to love the anticipation that comes as a new football season approaches. The USFL is poised to begin its 31st season and 28 fanbases are all imagining the possibilities. Is this the year their club reaches the mountaintop, or stuns the pundits, or puts the pieces together for a playoff run? Will their favorite player take the next step? Will their top draft pick turn out to be a gem? So much possibility, and while we know that someone is going to fall short, or disappoint, we also know that someone will surprise us all and far exceed our expectations, just as St. Louis did last year, not only making the playoffs for the first time in their short history but winning the league title at the end of a magical season. Who will it be this year that astounds us? Upends predictions? Or defies the odds? We are all ready and eager to find out as the USFL season prepares to kick off, but not before we take a look at the stories to follow this season, at least those we know of, and our always entertaining but oh, so often off the mark predictions. Let’s get ready for 2013 as we preview the USFL season about to kick off.
Ten Stories to Monitor as the Season Starts
It is always a tough task to identify the storylines for a season. We know what we know but there is always so much that we cannot see. Last year it was early season injuries to Ron Dayne, Kurt Warner, and then Joe Flacco that in part defined the season. It was also surprising runs by Portland and Seattle, and the unexpected collapses by Pittsburgh and Orlando. What will it be this year? We cannot predict the future, but as of right now, here are the 10 stories we think will be on our minds for the 2013 season.
Dallas QB Quandary
The newly relocated and newly dubbed Dallas Roughnecks begin their USFL lives with very much the same concern that their former club, the Boston Cannons, had last year, can they get reliable QB play. With no clear franchise QBs available in the USFL or NFL draft pools, and only a couple of developmental options in the draft, Dallas did not have a lot of options to try to improve their QB room. They opted to draft Landry Jones out of Oklahoma in the Territorial Draft, and Jones will join former Washington Husky Jake Locker and longtime Cannon backup Adrian McPherson as the QB trio this season but are any of the three of them able to show us something this year. We expect Locker to start the season on the field, but fans seen eager to see what Jones can do. The question is whether either can step up and grab the starting job with authority.
Another QB Controversy in the Offing for Ohio
The Ohio Glory also find themselves with quite a controversy as Coach Bart Andrus has named former NFL QB Chris Weinke the starter for Week 1 over 2013 starter Vince Young. Weinke, something of a journeyman, now with his 3rd team in 4 years, just played better in camp, though clearly Young possesses more athleticism. Just as with Dallas, the real question in Columbus is whether either of the two can consistently provide offense for an Ohio Glory team that got spoiled in the 2000’s but has fallen on harder times in a very difficult Central Division.
Manning v. Manning in the South
With Peyton Manning preparing for his first full season of USFL football in Nashville, and with the offseason deal that brought his younger brother Eli to the Memphis Showboats, we are primed for a battle of brothers in the Southern Division. The two will face off twice this year in the in-state Tennessee Tussle series but expect us to be comparing the two throughout the year as each tries to bring their squad back to the playoffs. Add to this at least 2 good “back with a vengeance” games when Eli and the Showboats face off against division rival, and former club, New Orleans, and the Southern Division may be the site of some of the most intense divisional rivalry games in the entire league this season.
Will the New Faces at HB Sprint or Struggle?
While in many years the offseason news is dominated by the quarterbacks, this past offseason was all about running backs as several switched teams, others arrived via the NFL Portal, and a few arrived from the draft with high expectations. This year, we are looking at what could be a very different leaderboard when it comes to the run game. With 2012 USFL rushing leader Antowain Smith retiring, and with so many new backs taking on lead positions with new teams, this could be a dynamic year for those who love the ground game. Just look at this list of teams who will feature new backs in 2013:
Arizona 2012: LaDainian Tomlinson 2013: Frank Gore
Atlanta 2012: Darren McFadden 2013: Steven Jackson (NFL)
Chicago 2012: Michael Turner 2013: David Martin
Houston 2012: Shaun Alexander 2013: Michael Turner
Los Angeles 2012: Ray Rice 2013: Reggie Bush (NFL)
Memphis 2012: Cadillac Williams 2013: Darren McFadden
Michigan 2012: Ciatrick Fason 2013: LeVeon Bell (Rookie)
Nashville 2012: Frank Gore 2013: Ray Rice
Seattle 2012: Jahvid Best 2013: Cadillac Williams
St. Louis 2012: Antowain Smith 2013: Eddie Lacy (Rookie)
Can St. Louis Repeat Without Smith?
Running back is the biggest question for the league champion Skyhawks, as they bring in Alabama rookie Eddie Lacy to replace 2012 rushing leader Antowain Smith. Smith’s will be huge shoes to fill, and with all the hopes that St. Louis can repeat, there will certainly be a lot of pressure on Lacy and on Head Coach Bruce Arians to keep St. Louis’s offense humming in 2013. The Skyhawks raced to a 13-3 record thanks to their dynamic offense, one which not only led the league in rushing but also could devastate defenses through the air. If the Skyhawks want to repeat, they will need to maintain that dual threat dynamic or teams could home in on QB Josh Freeman and clamp down on the passing game. Everyone will be playing their best football when they face the Skyhawks this year, and only 1 team in league history has ever repeated as champion, so the challenge is there, and it will be a tough one.
Rookie Defenders Hope to Start Fast
The 2013 draft did not produce the big-name quarterbacks that so often dominate offseason press, but what it lacked in offensive stars, it had in depth on the defensive side of the ball. The 2013 draft class for the USFL saw one of the deepest and most talented pools of defenders we have had in many years, so which ones will hit the ground running and provide their new teams with a boost of energy and muscle needed to dominate? Here are our picks for the 10 most likely impact defenders from the 2013 draft:
New Jersey S Johnathon Cyprien from FIU
St. Louis DT Sheldon Richardson from Mizzou
Memphis LB Jarvis Jones from Georgia
Chicago LB Manti Te’o from Notre Dame
Ohio DE Datone Jones from UCLA
Washington LB Alec Ogletree from Georgia
Dallas DT Star Lotulelei from Utah
Orlando CB Dee Milliner from Alabama
Portland DE Dion Jordan from Oregon
Jacksonville DE Barkevious Mingo from LSU
Is Wilson Ready for Renegades?
2012 was a season to forget for the Orlando Renegades. Despite another outstanding year from DE Calais Campbell, the Renegades not only failed to reach the playoffs, but they also fell all the way into a Top 3 draft pick with a 3-13 record, a 5-game slip from 2011. That collapse led to some major changes, not the least of which was the departure of Head Coach Emmitt Thomas and the almost immediate signing of Summer Bowl Champion and former Boston Cannon head man John Fox. Fox went to work with the Renegades from day one, setting up the trade that sent Eli Manning to Memphis and putting his full confidence in Russell Wilson, a rookie who had started only 1 game, a Week 16 wrap up game. Wilson will take over an offense that struggled to sustain drives in 2012 but will have a solid ground game with Knowshon Moreno and rookie Latavius Murray in the backfield. The bigger question may well be whether Orlando did enough in signing rookies Dee Milliner and Montori Hughes, and trading for safety Chad Scott to improve on a defense that gave up 311 yards per game and nearly 24 points each week in 2012.
Can Pittsburgh Survive Brutal NE Division?
With Boston moving from the Northeast to the Southwest Division with their relocation to Dallas, someone had to move back to the East, and that someone was Pittsburgh. The Maulers, who were the 2012 pick to win the Central Division, had a disappointing 7-9 season and now find themselves in a division with powerhouses Philadelphia and Washington, along with playoff contender Baltimore and a very solid, potential division challenger in New Jersey. The Maulers begin the year as the likely basement dweller in their new division and must try to compete while also developing a young QB in Andy Dalton, given the starting job midway through the 2012 season and now crowned the starter after the club traded 2012 season starter Cody Pickett to Nashville. It will be a long tough road for the Maulers, despite having one of the better defenses in football the past few years. Eight division games against teams with winning records in 2012 will not be a very warm welcome back to the NE Division for these Maulers.
How Will Thunder Avoid Distraction?
You hate to see any club impacted by non-football matters related to their team. We saw it in Boston last year, and we fully expect to see it in Las Vegas this year as the ongoing investigations into financial concerns (and possible crimes) by Thunder ownership are already casting a dark shadow over the 2013 season. There is a question of viability for the team, of potential contraction, sale, relocation, or simple financial chaos for the Thunder that is sure to impact the players, even if they say, as they have all offseason, that their job is to be ready each week to compete on the field. We have already begun to see football impacts as the Thunder struggled to sign players, including draft picks, due to concerns over the uncertain future of the team. Just how Jake Plummer, Marshawn Lynch and the Thunder players will be able to set aside the club’s issues and uncertain future and put out good efforts each week, will be a huge factor as they try to improve upon what was a very good 2012 season on the field, a season that saw Las Vegas come one game from the Summer Bowl.
Our 6 Break Out Players to Watch
Last year Josh Freeman went from a solid QB to the league MVP. Matt Gutierrez from career backup to a hero and the new starting QB for the Philadelphia Stars. Jonathan Stewart became a 1,300-yard rusher, Stevie Johnson and rookie Justin Blackmon burst onto the scene as clear number 1 receivers, each with over 1,300 yards themselves, and Justin Smith and Reynaldo Wynn both challenged Calais Campbell for the sack title. It seems every year we see several players up their games, figure out the pro game, or just match their skills with a good situation to break out. We expect the same this year and we have found 6 players who we think will be well-positioned to do just that. Our list includes two NFL imports, two players changing teams, and a rookie we see as being in the right place to have a huge first year. Here is our list of 6 players to watch out for in 2013.
Reggie Bush, HB, Los Angeles
Bush was a star before he ever left USC, in the running for the Heisman, he signed on with the New Orleans Saints and struggled to take on a lead role, never rushing for more than 600 yards in any season, though, as a receiver he certainly shined. He moved on to the Miami Dolphins and had his best rushing years, with 1,086 yards in 2011 and 986 in 2012. Now he is in LA, where new head coach Andy Reid loves his versatility and plans to use him as much as a threat out of the backfield as in the run game. That seems like a perfect match to us.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan
The 2nd year QB out of Michigan State started one game in 2011, and now finds himself the designated starter after the retirement of Brian Griese. He has in Michigan a superstar wideout in Hines Ward, a solid offensive line, a good friend in former Spartan, rookie HB LeVeon Bell, and a coach in Dick LeBeau who has seen it all and has all but done it all. He is helping Cousins along as well by bringing in a former All-USFL QB as his QB Coach, former Machine and Stars’ QB Chuck Long. Long should be able to help Cousins adapt quickly and with the weapons Michigan has, he may be able to have a good first full season.
Josh Cribbs, KR/PR, Pittsburgh
No one expects Cribbs to jump right into the receiver room and dominate. That is not his thing, but if there is one thing we saw with him in Cleveland, with the NFL Browns, it is that he is an explosive player on special teams. He will get the chance to do that again in Pittsburgh with the Maulers, but with Pittsburgh, now that Vincent Jackson has departed in free agency, he may also see more reps with the offense. We know what he can do on kick and punt returns, will he be able to expand his repertoire on offense?
Rey Maualaga, LB, New Jersey
Maualaga was a breakout star for Charlotte last year, helping the Monarchs surprise many and make a Summer Bowl appearance. He caught the eye of New Jersey Head Coach Herm Edwards, and that spurred the Generals to make a deal to send DE Jevon Kearse to Charlotte for Maualaga. Now, on a rebuilt LB group that also features NFL import Chase Blackburn and the ageless Donterrious Thomas, Maualaga could help another team find the promised land.
Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay
Yes, it is a bit ingenious to call Vincent Jackson a possible breakout star in 2013, when he has been a 1,000-yard receiver for Pittsburgh for the past 4 years. So, why include him here? Well, as we have seen in recent years, with Randy Moss and with Joey Galloway, there is something about Bandit Ball that seems to allow the number one receiver to go above and beyond expectations. Jackson had 1,052 yards on 98 catches last year. With Daunte Culpepper throwing him the ball, and with Wills McGahee forcing defenses to deal with the run/pass threat from the halfback, double coverage will be tough for teams to pull off, which means Jackson could have a career year. We would not be surprised if he reaches 120 catches or 1,600 yards with the Bandits, turning him from a solid number one into an All-USFL superstar.
Barkevious Mingo, DE, Jacksonville
There are several rookies who could do quite well this year, players like Michigan HB LeVeon Bell, Mauler slot receiver Tavon Austin, or Dallas DT Star Lotulelei, but none are in a better position than Mingo when it comes to possible immediate impact. The LSU grad will be set up as the Left End for the Bulls from Week One. He is paired with DTs Marcus Stroud and Brodrick Bunkley, both excellent at absorbing blockers, and opposite him will be David Bowens, himself an underrated edge rusher. What this all means is that the rookie end will likely not be facing nearly as many double teams as many pass rush specialists. Add in Coach Leslie Frazier’s solid coaching of the Bulls’ secondary and you have a team that could get coverage sacks in addition to devastating pass rush generated sacks. All of this points to Mingo as a potential 15, maybe even 20-sack producer in his first year in the league. That would put his name on this list any year.
TEAM PROFILES
A new season brings with it a sense of possibility. Every team starts the year with aspirations, hopes, and expectations. The season may prove to be more than anyone bargained for, or a major letdown. Players step up, teams come together, new arrivals find a home, and new stories are written. As we stand at the cusp of a new season, the USFL’s 31st, there are 28 franchises all hoping that this year is their year, planning to put their best foot forward, and anxiously waiting to hit the field to prove themselves. As we look at all 28 clubs and make our picks for who we think will emerge as true contenders in 2013, we should remember that at this point every team is sitting at 0-0, and that in one week’s time half the league will be unbeaten and half winless. The story of the league is ready to be written, and for fans across the country the hope is that their favorite players and their team will become the heroes of the story.
2012: 11-5, Pacific Division Champion
Coach: June Jones (4th season)
Offseason Story: We could focus on the financial issues the Thunder face, but we want to stick with football-related stories, and in doing that we point to the shakeup on the offensive line with both Kenyata Walker and Roberto Garza retiring this year. The Thunder made almost no moves this summer which means that they are going with a very inexperienced right side with Mackenzie Bernadeau at guard and Joaquin Gonzalez at Tackle. They both have been in the league a while, but neither has been able to break through and become a regular starter. Will that be an issue for a club that has Summer Bowl aspirations?
Biggest Addition: Cornerback Tyrone Bell comes over from Memphis in one of very few offseason moves. With the Showboats, Bell was steady, but rarely dynamic, which is OK for a number 2 corner. But now the Thunder have a pair of corners who are both in their mid-30’s. If either one loses a step at this point, it could be a big issue.
Player to Watch: TE Ben Watson was the other Thunder signing, and in combo with Kevin Everett, you could now see the Thunder use a lot of 2-TE formations, which will certainly help Marshawn Lynch, while also producing some matchup concerns for defenses that will want to stay in base formation against the run.
Outlook: There will certainly be a lot of distraction in Las Vegas this year as the franchises finances, and their future, are very much in question. Will that impact their ability to defend a division title? How could it not? We think Las Vegas has the talent to repeat, but they will face some major challenges if they are going to be able to focus on the field this season.
Our Predicted Finish: We see the Thunder succumbing a bit to the chaos around them, enough to slip to 2nd place. Our pick is 9-7 and 2nd in the Pacific.
2012: 6-10, 4th in Division
Coach: Andy Reid (1st season)
Offseason Story: The arrival of Andy Reid, a 2-time Super Bowl winner in the NFL, has Express fans feeling very good about their upside. Add in Reggie Bush coming over from the fall league as well and the excitement was palpable. The key for LA will be to see improvement in an offense that just was not very imaginative under Gregg Williams. With Bush, Keyshawn Johnson, and rookie Robert Woods, the Express could look very different on offense in 2013.
Biggest Addition: It has to be Bush, which goes without saying, but let’s not sleep on the signing of DT Rashad Moore and LB Nathan Triplett to a defense that was already pretty solid. While Bush will be the fans’ focal point, the defense may still be the story for LA.
Player to Watch: We are going to go with the two rookie receivers here, Robert Woods from USC and TE Gavin Escobar should start to see snaps early this season and Coach Reid has high hopes that both can help the LA offense be more “multiple” in how it challenges defenses. Both can be great underneath options while Keyshawn provides the deep threat and Reggie Bush forces defenses to split their attention.
Outlook: Gregg Williams was not able to pull together a talented team and produce consistent results. Now the Express have landed one of the most respected and most successful coaches from the NFL in Andy Reid. Reid will be a full 180 turn from Williams, particularly in his offensive scheme. Bringing in Reggie Bush and some rookie playmakers will certainly give Mark Sanchez some options. How quickly the team can coalesce around Coach Reid’s new plan will determine how different 2013 can be from 2012.
Our Predicted Finish: We see LA as a potentially dangerous team, but we are not sure they are quite there yet. We are going to go for modest improvement. 8-8 and 3rd in the Pacific is our pick.
2012: 10-6, 2nd in Division, Wild Card
Coach: Dennis Green (11th season)
Offseason Story: The Invaders lost two good contributors from their D-line, Kalimba Edwards to retirement and Israel Idonije to the NFL. That leaves team MVP last year Justin Smith on something of an island. The Invaders added Junior Galette from the NFL portal, but he is not likely to be the starter. It is another NFL signee from last year, Cliff Avril who will be called on.
Biggest Addition: Rookie Keenan Allen has impressed in camp, moving up the depth chart quickly. He is expected to start opposite veteran Greg Jennings in Week 1, pushing Pierre Garçon into the slot, which may actually be his best natural position. Could Oakland have a legit 3-receiver group for a change?
Player to Watch: Keenan Allen is a pretty obvious pick, but sometimes the obvious choice is the best one. We see big things for Allen if he can build rapport with Joey Harrington. Defenses still have to respect Greg Jennings as the primary, so expect the rookie to see a lot of single coverage.
Our Predicted Finish: We are going with Oakland as the most likely team to outlast the others and take the division. 10-6 and 1st place, but perhaps not a bye if they end up as the 3rd best division winner.
2012: 9-7, 3rd in Division, Wild Card
Coach: Marty Mornhinweg (2nd season)
Offseason Story: A lot of folks are wondering if the efforts made by Portland to sign FSU quarterback E. J. Manuel send a message to Ryan Fitzpatrick that even after a very solid 2012, where he led the Stags to the playoffs, throwing for over 3,000 yards, as not enough. The Stags ended up failing to land Manuel, though they did bring in Penn State’s Matt McGloin, but the question is whether this challenge will crack Fitzpatrick’s resolve or redouble it?
Biggest Addition: Portland brought in 2 backs to help keep Jonathan Stewart fresh. Former Gold HB Javon Ringer is more a change of pace back while former NFL HB LeGarrette Blount is a pounder who likely will be used in short yardage to help relieve the stress on Stewart, who carried the ball over 350 times last season.
Player to Watch: DE Dion Jordan was the first DE on the board for both the USFL and NFL draft gurus. That Portland was able to keep the Duck in Oregon was a major coup for a team that generally does not get much help from their T-Draft. Jordan will start on the left side for the Stags and they are hoping he can be an instant difference maker on passing downs.
Outlook: Portland was the surprise of the first half of 2012 before they cooled off a bit. Coach Mornhinweg instilled a “can do” attitude in a roster that many saw as undermanned. With the additions of Jordan, Blount, and Ringer, they have added some versatility to the squad, and if rookie Deon Jordan is all he appears to be, the Stags could make another run. We have them falling short, but are open to the possibility that they again surprise us.
Our Predicted Finish: We are still not sold on the ceiling for this club, and we are going to undervalue them based on last year. We are saying 7-9 and 4th in the division because we are still not sure what direction the team is going, particularly on offense.
2012: 3-13, 5th in Division
Coach: Stump Mitchell (1st season)
Offseason Story: The Dragons watched as Marvin Lewis stepped away from the club, but they feel that they have one of the best young coordinators in football now with Stump Mitchell accepting the job after helping to mold the St. Louis Skyhawk offense into one of the league’s best. Can he put together the pieces to give Byron Leftwich one more title run?
Biggest Addition: As much as folks are going to focus on the club’s new halfback, we think the bigger get, and one that will pay dividends without fanfare, is landing rookie Eric Fisher as the new bodyguard for Leftwich. Having an athletic left tackle can make all the difference for an older QB, and Fisher is good enough as a run blocker to help the Dragons finally get a legit run game back, something they really have not had since Corey Dillon retired.
Player to Watch: It is going to be the new bell cow for the Dragons, Cadillac Williams. Before a season-ending injury last year, Williams was on pace for his 2nd straight 1,000 yard season on a club with a pretty bad line. If he is fully recovered, we could see 2013 be a big year for the back, and that would be a very good thing for the Dragons.
Outlook: Stump Mitchell takes over a club that has been in decline and hit rock bottom in 2013 with only 3 wins on the season. While we like the addition of Fisher to the O-line, we are not as sold that Cadillac Williams is the man to revive the Dragon offense. This very much feels like a club at the front end of a total rebuild, and Coach Mitchell will need time to build up a younger, faster, more dangerous roster.
Our Predicted Finish: We don’t see Seattle suffering another 3-win season, but they will still find themselves in the division basement in 2013. Our pick is 5-11, a slight improvement, but still 5th in the Pacific.
2012: 6-10, 4th in Division
Coach: Jim Tomsula (5th season)
Offseason Story: The fall started with LaDainian Tomlinson announcing his retirement, but ended with the Wranglers winning the Frank Gore sweepstakes. Generally considered the best back to be available as a free agent in several years, Gore was an immediate boost for Wrangler fan spirits. Expect him to be a focal point of the offense, which works well for David Carr, who is more of a game manager than a gunslinger.
Biggest Addition: Outside of Gore, and perhaps shadowed a bit by the HB’s arrival, was the signing of NFL DT Glenn Dorsey. Dorsey’s career with the Chiefs has not had the impact that many expected, but in Arizona, he could be a big part of a restructured D-line that Coach Tomsula hopes can bring pressure without the need for extensive blitzing. Dorsey will rotate with Monsanto Pope and Josh Shaw to keep him fresh after a long NFL season, but we expect to see him a lot on 3rd down to help free up the ends to pass rush.
Player to Watch: Our pick to break out in 2013 is not a new arrival, but a player who has seen his numbers increase each year, TE Rob Gronkowski. “Gronk” has gone form 418 yards and 2 TDs in his rookie year to over 800 yards and 4 TDs in 2012. With Gore attracting a lot of LB attention, we could see this as a big year for the tight end, perhaps as big as 1,000 yards and 8-10 touchdowns, because the defenses are going to have to stack up against the run, and that means a lot of leaking out into the flat.
Outlook: A lot was expected of the Wranglers in 2012 and they fell well short of expectations. With the addition of Frank Gore, the Wranglers have solved their biggest issue (how to replace the retired LaDainian Tomlinson), but the overall impact could be minimal as other weaknesses still remain on this team’s roster.
Our Predicted Finish: We see Arizona being a mid-level team, possibly in the range of 7-9 wins, but more likely leaning towards the low end. Our pick is 7-9 and 4th in the division.
2012: 3-13, 5th in NE Division as Boston
Coach: Mike Sherman (1st season)
Offseason Story: The move to Dallas was huge, but again, not really football-central, so we will go with the ongoing QB situation. Dallas drafted OU passer Landry Jones both to lure in fans from the state to the north, but also because they simply did not trust that Jake Locker would develop as fans had hoped back in Boston. In his two years in Boston, Locker put up 14 TDs and 16 picks, and averaged only a 68.8 QB Rating. However, he did improve from a dismal 59.3 to 79 between year 1 and 2. Given a shot, he could see growth again in 2013, and if not, Landry is ready to give it a shot.
Biggest Addition: Dallas was very active in Free Agency, bringing in 3 defenders who could see considerable snaps, LBs Zack DeOssie and Brandon Chillar, as well as DE Elvis Dumervil. We think the former Stag could be a good fit in Dallas’s 3-4. He will line up opposite Chuckie Nwokorie, who is as good a mentor as a young edge rusher could ask for.
Player to Watch: Rookie DT Star Lotulelei could be the best of the D-linemen for Dallas. His ability to shake off blockers and create pressure up the middle could be the best thing for both Nwokorie and Dumervil. It is a big step up from Utah to the USFL, but we see so much physical presence in Lotulelei that we think he could be an instant impact player.
Outlook: Fans in the DFW are excited to get a team of their own, but it is a team with a lot of questions, not the least of which is who will be their QB. We expect Locker to start the year, but if he cannot improve on past seasons the Roughnecks could well turn to OU rookie Landry Jones. This club won only 3 games last year in Boston and they again look like a club that will struggle to string wins together.
Our Predicted Finish: Coach Sherman will need time to rebuild a roster that simply did not keep pace over several seasons. We see 4 wins as a ceiling, so 4-12 and 5th in their new division.
2012: 9-7, 2nd in Division, Wild Card
Coach: Dick Jauron (16th season)
Offseason Story: Despite being ahead of their offense, Denver again focused their offseason on the D. Seems like Coach Jauron wants to simply bore other teams to death with a slow, methodical offense, while his defense keeps them from scoring. The Gold added FS Dashon Goldson via trade, CB Keenan Lewis from the NFL, and both LB Hannibal Navies and DE Justice Cole through free agency. They then drafted Florida DT Sharrif Floyd, Illinois DE Michael Buchanon, and Nebraska safety Daimion Stafford. No doubt what the plan is with an offseason like that.
Biggest Addition: Honestly, despite all the defenders brought in, we look at rookie tackle David Bakhtiari and wonder if he might not be the biggest addition to the Gold. Already competing for starting time at both RT and LT, we expect the Colorado Buffalo to find time at either end of the line this spring, and that could be a huge plus for Denver’s 3-headed running game.
Player to Watch: Fans in Denver keep waiting for Ndamukong Suh to have the huge impact that was anticipated when Denver landed him as a rookie. So far teams have been able to neutralize him because the outside edge rushers for Denver have been unimpressive. We are not sure that changes with Justice Cole taking over opposite Ryan Denney, but at some point the Gold have to start scheming to make use of Suh’s undeniable physical abilities.
Outlook: We could pretty much go back to any prior season, find a prediction for this team to be between 8-10 wins and reuse it. Denver always seems to be in the same space in our power rankings and always seems to end up in the mix, but rarely at the top of the heap. Once again we see a club here that can compete but will not be so dominant as to take over the division.
Our Predicted Finish: We are going to go with 9 wins again and say that is good enough for 3rd in the division.
2012: 8-8, 3rd in Division
Coach: Wade Phillips (13th season)
Offseason Story: Just as we saw with the Tomlinson-Gore transition, Houston is hoping for a smooth segway as Shaun Alexander is replaced by Michael Turner, obtained in trade with Chicago. The Machine wagered that with his heavy workload for years, Turner will be one of those 30-year-old backs whose production drops off a cliff. Houston, of course, is hoping they are wrong.
Biggest Addition: Aside from Turner, the new face we like the most in Houston is rookie safety Kenny Vaccaro. He sits behind both Patrick Chung and Willie Anderson as a free-floating safety right now, but could also see the field as a nickel or dime DB and we fully expect that as the season moves along, Vaccaro will get more and more opportunity to prove himself.
Player to Watch: Houston’s D was always at its best when it had 2 dynamic edge rushers. Osi Umenyiura is a known commodity, but we are still waiting to see what Jerry Hughes can do opposite him. He has shown flashes, but the Gamblers want to see if he can be more than just an occasional nuisance. They want a full time menace at the RE spot.
Outlook: A lot hinges on whether or not Chicago was right to let Michael Turner go. If he has a season or two left in his knees, then Houston will find a way to make him a productive back with the Gamblers, but if he hits the cliff, that could very easily derail an offense predicated on the threat of the run to allow Matt Hasselbeck, himself no spring chicken, to be successful.
Our Predicted Finish: Houston is a short-term contender, meaning that we can see the rebuild on the horizon, but for 2013, we think they have enough to be in the mix. Our pick is 10-6 and 2nd in the division.
2012: 10-6, Division Champion
Coach: Greg Landry (4th Season)
Offseason Story: All eyes in San Antonio this summer were scouring the news for updates on Joe Flacco’s recovery from a season-ending injury. Well, the news appears to be very good as Flacco has had a strong camp and looks ready to roll in 2013. Now fans can focus on watching Flacco arc some deep balls to Colston, Marshall and rookie speedster Marquise Goodwin.
Biggest Addition: Texas did not make a lot of moves this offseason, but the one that could have a nice immediate impact is the addition of HB Felix Jones as a 2nd option behind Arian Foster. Jones’s style is very much like that of Foster, so this is not a Thunder and Lightning situation so much as a “new back, same strategy” substitution option.
Player to Watch: Reynaldo Wynn busted out last year to win Defensive Player of the Year. So, what can he do for an encore? Can he make a legitimate run at Calais Campbell. He has a solid line around him and a good secondary behind him, so the team is there to allow Wynn to have another outstanding 20+ sack season.
Outlook: The Outlaws are a talented and dangerous team. Had Joe Flacco not been sent to the IR late last season, they could easily have contended for a league title. We expect Flacco to be back to full strength from Week 1, which makes Texas a frontrunner to take not only the division but the conference as well.
Our Predicted Finish: We see a strong year ahead for the Outlaws. Our pick is 12-4, first place, and a bye as either the number 1 or 2 seed.
2012: 7-9, 3rd in Division
Coach: Greg Schiano (2nd season)
Offseason Story: The trade of Michael Turner was by far the most talked about Chicago story this offseason. Turner, who had racked up seven consecutive 1,000 yard seasons was seen by many as the club’s most reliable players, so it was quite a shock to the fanbase, one which had questioned QB Brady Quinn but not Turner, to see the back sent off to Houston. The premise is that the club was concerned about the 30-year cliff that so many backs have, and they were very happy with the rookie year put together by Doug Martin, so they traded Turner before the cliff in hopes of getting top value, which they feel they did in acquiring cornerback Josh Norman, who also had a strong rookie season. The overall picture, when we look at Chicago’s roster is that a youth movement is afoot.
Biggest Addition: Chicago went all out to bring in an almost entirely new secondary, including the trade for Norman, the drafting of corners Nickell Robey-Coleman and Jordan Poyer, and, the addition of the player we think will have the biggest impact, safety Bob Sanders. Sanders has been a reliable presence in the middle for both the Feds and Generals, and we expect more of the same in Chicago, where the 9-year veteran will be a rare voice of experience in a very young secondary.
Player to Watch: The other big change for Chicago was the loss of Donald Driver at WR. The player expected to step up and fill those big shoes is NFL import Emmanuel Sanders, a former Steeler. Sanders is a pure speed receiver, and a bit of a diva, which will be new for Coach Schiano to deal with after the workmanlike Driver last year. We expect he will need a couple of weeks before he makes the lineup, so in the meantime it will be Michael Floyd filling in, but once Sanders hits the field, expect Coach Schiano to try to use him to force the safeties deeper, creating room underneath for Austin Pettis, Ben Hartsook, and the running of Doug Martin.
Outlook: Losing both Michael Turner and Donald Driver will set back the Chicago offense. Having to rebuild an iffy secondary will also contribute to what we see as a slow start for the Machine. There is talent on this roster, but we think it will need time to emerge and to gel into a fully functioning squad. Expect a lot of hiccups, bugs, and erratic play from this squad, particularly over the season’s first half.
Our Predicted Finish: We think Chicago will struggle to keep pace with the better teams in the division, and likely will end up with a losing record overall. Our pick is 6-10 and 3rd in the division.
2012: 6-10, 4th in Division
Coach: Dick LeBeau (10th Season)
Offseason Story: The retirement of Brian Griese is the end of an era in Michigan. Griese has been the Panther QB since 2008, when he led the Panthers to a title in his first year as a starter. Since then he has put up a 4,000 yard season, had three solid years over 3,000 and has been a consistent presence in the locker room. All of that now falls on 2012 draft pick Kirk Cousins. The Michigan State product will take over another team having a youth movement, particularly on offense, where he will be paired with Spartan teammate LeVeon Bell.
Biggest Addition: Defensive End Michael Bennett comes to the Panthers from the NFL Buccaneers, where he had a career high 7 sacks in 2012. The hope is that he will continue to grow and has the potential to be a 15-sack edge rusher in the USFL. Michigan could certainly use the boost to their passrush. Their strongest pass rusher in 2012 was D’Aundre Reed with 8 sacks, and that is not going to get it done in a pass-heavy league.
Player to Watch: The player who has the highest expectations and who fills the biggest need is certainly LeVeon Bell. The rookie HB is expected to resurrect a moribund rush attack for the Panthers. With a combination of Mike Hart and Aveion Carson, the Panthers had one of the least productive run games in the league last year and the hope for 2013 is that Bell can quickly adapt and move the Panthes at least towards the middle of the pack, in no small part as a way to take pressure off their inexperienced QB.
Outlook: We all know what the biggest question marks are for Michigan. Can Kirk Cousins be effective in his first year as a starter? Does Michigan have a running game with rookie LeVeon Bell or will the Panther offense again be one-dimensional? We don’t see the Panthers as a true playoff contender, but in this division they could well finish 2nd despite being a flawed team.
Our Predicted Finish: We see the Panthers as being a year away from truly challenging St. Louis, so we are saying 8-8 and 2nd in the division, but not a playoff spot.
2012: 5-11, 5th in Division
Coach: Bart Andrus (3rd season)
Offseason Story: To say that Vince Young has underwhelmed since coming over from the NFL would be fair. The lack of dynamism in the Ohio offense has been a huge disappointment to the fanbase, who were admittedly spoiled by Kerry Collins for a decade. So now, after a trade with Texas, the Glory have 2 quarterbacks battling for the starting position. Chris Weinke has been named the starter for Week 1, but we expect he will be on a short leash and we could see Young as well. So a 2-headed QB position, which, if the cliché holds, means that Ohio does not really have 2 QBs but none.
Biggest Addition: The Glory signed several free agents, but mostly in depth positions. The one exception is LB Tommy Polley, who is expected to take over the strong side duties alongside MLB James Laurinaitis and weak side LB Philip Wheeler. After 12 years prowling the field with Chicago, Polley is expected to be a leader on the field and in the locker room, but for how long? He is 34, so likely not part of a long term solution for the Ohio defense.
Player to Watch: Ohio needs Steve Smith to step up and be the superstar they thought they acquired from Philadelphia. Since coming to Ohio, Smith has been vocal as always, but his play on the field has not matched his last couple of years as a Star. Smith has yet to crack 1,000 yards as a member of the Glory, and while his quarterback situation has not been ideal, at some point you just have to ask more of one of the most highly-paid players on the team.
Outlook: The Glory showed some signs in the 2nd half of 2012. If they can build on that, then they may contend with Michigan for the 2nd place spot, but we are still not sold on the idea that Vince Young is the answer at QB. They may not be sold on it either, having brought in Chris Weinke for insurance. That lack of certainty at the QB position has us thinking that another last place finish is not only possible, but probable.
Our Predicted Finish: We see Ohio getting better, but not enough to escape 4th place in the newly reduced 4-team division. 6-10 and 4th place is our pick.
2012: 13-3, Division & League Champion
Coach: Bruce Arians (4th season)
Offseason Story: The Skyhawks spent the offseason basking in the glory of a league championship. From parades to sponsorship and spokesperson deals, no one has had this kind of reception in St. Louis since the baseball Cardinals won their last title. Will all the hype and local fanfare be a distraction in 2013, or can the “Ka-Kaw Warriors” pull off a repeat, one of the rarest feats in the USFL?
Biggest Addition: The league champions did not have a lot of holes and focused mostly on resigning as many of their free agent veterans as they could. They signed no NFL talent, made no trades, and had only 1 new free agent come to town, but we think that free agent, TE Jeramy Stevens, was a very good addition. He will upgrade the TE position and give Josh Freeman yet one more target to take advantage of. Adding any weapons to the Skyhawk offense is a scary proposition.
Player to Watch: With the retirement of Antowain Smith, halfback was the one glaring issue St. Louis’s front office would have to address. They opted to do so through the draft, trading with Birmingham to get a Stallion T-Draft pick and with that pick they went all in on Alabama halfback Eddie Lacy. Lacy will be anointed the starter from the get-go, with only 2012 backups William Bethea and James Ridley behind him in the RB room. That is a lot of pressure for a rookie HB, perhaps even more than what we see in Michigan with LeVeon Bell, because the expectation is that this is a team poised for a possible repeat run.
Outlook: The defending champs look stoked and ready to run towards a repeat. They had very few losses from their title-winning roster, and Coach Arians has put a system in place that plays to the strengths of his roster. If rookie HB Eddie Lacy can step in and produce right away, this team could be primed for another deep run. But if that is too much to ask, we still see St. Louis winning the division, though perhaps not advancing all the way to a title again.
Our Predicted Finish: We see St. Louis as solidly 2-3 steps ahead of anyone else in the division. Perhaps not good enough for another 13-win season, but good enough to win the division title and a bye. Our pick is for 11-5 and a 2 seed in the playoffs.
2012: 6-10, 3rd in Division
Coach: Mike Shanahan (5th season)
Offseason Story: The key to Birmingham’s offseason was to resign two of their three-receiver “Birmingham Triangle”. It took a good part of the offseason, but they were able to find the funds to hold onto both Randy Moss, who came to the Stallions midseason in 2012, and slot receiver Julian Edelman. The combination of these two with outspoken Terrell Owens, gives Birmingham one of the most potentially dangerous receiving groups in the entire league. Will that be the ticket for QB Cam Newton to have a big year everyone has hoped for since he signed out of Auburn?
Biggest Addition: After signing their receivers, the biggest need for Birmingham was to shore up a shaky defense. They spent most of their draft capital on defense, but it is NFL import, DT Henry Melton, who could be the key. The veteran of the Bears is only 26 and could be a fixture alongside Johnathon Sullivan in the middle, helping to give the Stallions the power inside to improve against the run and allow Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves put more pressure on opposing QBs, something the Stallions struggled with last year.
Player to Watch: We love the Melton signing and adding some youth to the defense in the form of safeties Baccari Rambo and D. J. Swearinger in the draft is another positive for the Stallions. While Swearinger, the higher draft pick, is currently behind Corey White on the depth chart, Rambo had an outstanding camp, beating out Pat Watkins for the starting SS position. Rambo has good instincts for the ball and seems poised to be a quick study when it comes to USFL offenses. That is good, because Birmingham needs their defense to be more aggressive and more productive in 2013 if they want to challenge for the division.
Outlook: If the Stallions cannot generate more points with the combo of Moss and Owens wide, then they will need a major overhaul. Coach Shanahan is on the hotseat because the club has certainly brought in some big names and very talented offensive players. It is put up or shut up for Shanahan, QB Cam Newton, and the entire offense. And, with a defense that is still struggling a bit for identity, we believe that if Birmingham is going to turn the corner, it has to be built on their offensive firepower.
Our Predicted Finish: The Stallions could win 11 games, or only 5. It is so hard to see them as a consistent squad because they have proven over the past few years that they are not always in synch. We think they fare better than 2012, but may still fall short. Our pick is 9-7 and 2nd in the South.
2012: 4-12, 4th in Division
Coach: Brad Childress (2nd season)
Offseason Story: Apparently the hype over Peyton Manning over in Nashville got to such a point that Memphis felt they needed some Manning mania as well. Problem is, Eli’s career has not been as illustrious as his older brother’s. Eli has played well but rarely gotten solid results for his club in both New Orleans and Orlando. The Showboats are hoping that he will finally hit his stride and pair individual accomplishments with team success with his third team. Fans are not so sure, but anything has to be an improvement over the past two years with Ryan Mallett proving to be a false hope.
Biggest Addition: Memphis also made a big switch at halfback, allowing Cadillac Williams, and his diminishing production, head off to Seattle in free agency, and nabbing a free agent of their own in Atlanta HB Darren McFadden. McFadden has been solid for the Fire, rushing for 1,000 yards in 2010, but has also had two years marred by injuries, playing in only 13 games over the past two seasons. He had a strong second half to 2012, so Memphis is again being hopeful and planning on having the big back for all 16 games this year.
Player to Watch: Mario Williams’s arrival in Memphis last year had a lot of fanfare, but like so many NFL players making the transition, the lack of an offseason led to less-than-stellar results. Williams finished the USFL season with 12 sacks, which is a pretty solid number, but Memphians are hoping that in 2013 they will see the 20-sack edge rusher they signed away from the NFL Oilers.
Outlook: No team has transformed its roster quite as thoroughly as the Showboats this offseason. Coach Childress brought in a new QB, new starting HB, and new coordinators to help build up this franchise. Eli Manning is certainly an upgrade at the QB position, and we like Darren McFadden to step into Cadillac Williams’s role, but we are still not sold that this squad has either the defensive fortitude needed to compete, nor the receivers Manning will need to open up the offense.
Our Predicted Finish: We think Memphis will be a better team in 2013, but that many not translate into a lot more winning. We still have them bringing up the rear. 4th place and perhaps 5-6 wins in 2013 seems like a step in the right direction, but a small step.
2012: 8-8, 2nd in Division
Coach: Jim Johnson (19th Season)
Offseason Story: Fans in Nashville loved Frank Gore, and what was not to love, their star halfback had seven 1,000-yard seasons in 8 years. He was the center of the Nashville offense for nearly a decade, but now he is in Arizona, and the offense clearly turns to NFL import Peyton Manning to be its pivot point. Manning is certainly beloved in Tennessee, but he is not a spring chicken anymore and his spinal injury in 2011 is still a potential concern. The Knights simply don’t know how long they will have the legendary QB available to them, so they had better get what they can from him now.
Biggest Addition: With Gore off to Arizona, the key offseason move for the Knights had to be acquiring a suitable substitute. They opted to go with former General and Express halfback Ray Rice. Rice had his best year as a pro in 2012, rushing for 1,083 yards for a pretty shaky LA offense. But he has yet to top 4 TDs in any season, and fans in Nashville just don’t see the same type of “all for the win” attitude in Rice that Gore personified. It is a lot to ask any free agent to come in and immediately make fans forget the beloved player who left, and Rice is in a tough spot on that front.
Player to Watch: This is the year for Peyton Manning. At least that is the hope. The NFL veteran made an optimal recovery from spinal fusion surgery and was able to see the field last year, starting the final 7 games of the season and looking pretty good doing it. He finished 2012 with a 96.7 QB rating, 10 TDs to only 4 picks, and averaged 208 yards per game. Both the Knights and their faithful are expecting even more in 2013, with a full year under his belt and even more time to adapt to the spring game.
Outlook: As excited as fans were to see Peyton Manning in Knight purple last year, this season is truly the test of whether the risk was worth it to bring in the former NFL MVP. With Frank Gore gone, the offense will have to lean on Manning more than it did in the latter stages of 2012. Ray Rice is a capable back, but hardly the force that Gore has been for the Knights. The defense should be solid, and if Manning can squeeze some juice out of the offense, we think Nashville can get the job done.
Our Predicted Finish: We see Nashville surprising many and taking the division, once again likely in the final week showdown with New Orleans. 9-7 and 1st in the division by a hair.
2012: 9-7, Division Champion
Coach: Lamar Lathon (2nd Season)
Offseason Story: The Breakers were happy to finally beat Nashville in Week 16 and take the Southern Division, but now they want more, and it seems the path to doing more is to improve the LB group and become more aggressive on defense. Would you expect anything less from a team led by former All-USFL and HOF linebacker Lamar Lathon? New Orleans added two pieces to their LB group, the biggest of which was veteran Washington Federal team captain Antonio Pierce. At 33, Pierce is expected to have at least a couple of years of quality left in his well-toned body, and his leadership is unquestioned. The Breakers also added NFL veteran Rocky McIntosh and a promising rookie in local LSU product Kevin Minter. Coach Lathon is stressing team football with the group and hopes to see a swarming defense that makes life difficult for Southern Division rivals.
Biggest Addition: Pierce’s signing was huge and is really the only top shelf addition to a roster that stayed relatively stable from 2012 to 2013. The offense could have certainly used some new blood, and the lack of veteran signings on that side of the ball should be a concern for Breaker fans.
Player to Watch: We have been saying this for years, but if New Orleans is going to have a true breakthrough season, they need a running back to have a season to remember. We are 5 seasons into Matt Forte as the starter in New Orleans, and while there have been flashes, he has simply not proven that he can be the main man. His career YPC average is only 3.7, and his best season saw only 740 yards rushing. Short yardage back Mike Tolbert does not appear to be the answer, so we thnk that if Forte does not show something new in 2012, the Breakers will have to find a way to bring in someone who can simply provide more.
Outlook: Some are picking the Breakers to be the dark horse team in 2013, but we just don’t see it. We don’t see enough added value on offense to believe they will be able to pull away in even a weak Southern Division. While we love the addition of Antonio Pierce to the LB group, the defense is still a step too slow for us to believe in it.
Our Predicted Finish: We see New Orleans not as a rising team, but as one treading water and hoping that is good enough to again edge Nashville. We are going to say it is not enough. 8-8 and 3rd place in the division as a wake up call to do more in the 2014 offseason.
2012: 11-5, Division Champion
Coach: Tom Ramsey (5th Season)
Offseason Story: Running back was the story of the offseason for the Fire. Darren McFadden left the club in free agency to join the Memphis Showboats and with LaDell Betts retiring as well, the Fire were left with a pretty sizeable hole in their roster with only 3rd down back J. J. Arrington and practice squadder John Ball left on the roster. In the draft, Atlanta believes they have found a good option in South Carolina’s Marcus Lattimore, but the big get was not until this month when, during camp, the Fire reached across the NFL-USFL Transfer portal and signed one of the biggest names available in former St. Louis Ram Stephen Jackson. Jackson may not be available Week 1, but as soon as he is, you should expect him to be the starter.
Biggest Addition: With all respect to WR Hank Basket and punter Hunter Smith, it seems clear that Jackson was the biggest signing of the offseason for Atlanta. Jackson, who has topped 1,000 yards each year since 2005 for the Rams, may be losing a step, but he had several to spare, so we expect he will hit the ground running (sorry for the pun) as Atlanta’s main man in the backfield.
Player to Watch: Our other player to keep an eye on is WR Matt Jones. Coming over from Memphis last year, his 4th team in 4 years, Jones started the season very strong and finished with a very respectable 34 receptions, but it was his 5 touchdowns that give us hope that he will have a larger role in 2013, particularly in the red zone.
Outlook: Atlanta won the division with a solid defense and a varied offense, and that looks to be the formula again in 2013. The big difference this year will be at HB, where Stephen Jackson comes in with a lot of expectation. But, as we have seen time and time again, playing a full USFL season only 1-2 months after a full NFL season can be a big ask, especially at the HB position. We see Atlanta struggling to get the ground game going as Jackson adjusts and as his body wonders where the offseason rest went.
Our Predicted Finish: Atlanta is still a solid team, but we think they take an initial step back. 9-7 and third in the Southeast, with a Wild Card possible.
2012: 11-5, 2nd in Division, Wild Card & Conference Champion
Coach: Jim Mora Jr (6th season)
Offseason Story: For a team that made a surprising Wild Card run to the Summer Bowl, the Monarchs essentially stood pat this offseason. They had only minor losses in free agency and signed no players of major impact. The only story of any significance was the trade that sent Rey Maualaga to the Generals to acquire Jevon Kearse as an edge rusher. Maualaga was well-liked on the team and was a solid contributor with 71 tackles and 11 sacks in the Monarchs’ charmed 2012 season.
Biggest Addition: Jevon Kearse is a 14 year veteran with an up and down record of pressuring the QB. He had 10 sacks in 2012 with New Jersey after coming over from trade with the Panthers. Charlotte is hoping he has 1-2 good seasons left in him as they really want to be able to pressure the QB without the need for blitzing to pull that off, something they relied on very heavily last year.
Player to Watch: Charlotte drafted two guards, hoping to shore up the interior line. As of this week it looks like T-Draft selection Travis Bond from UNC is getting the start, but his Tarheel counterpart Jonathan Cooper is also hoping to bust into the starting lineup as well. If one or both prove themselves to be pro-ready, that could be a boost for the Charlotte run game.
Outlook: The Monarchs were right there with Atlanta and were perhaps the best 6-seed in the history of the USFL playoffs at 11-5. While the loss of Maualaga will impact them, their roster was pretty solid, with few changes in the offseason, and with Jake Delhomme back in full health, we think the Monarchs can make a run again.
Our Predicted Finish: We see Charlotte taking the next step after a bit of a Cinderella playoff run to the Summer Bowl in 2012. Our pick is 12-4 and first place in the Southeast.
2012: 6-10, 4th in division
Coach: Leslie Frazier (4th season)
Offseason Story: Another team with a pretty quiet offseason. Jacksonville continues to build through the draft, largely using free agency to add depth rather than front-line talent. Perhaps the biggest story was something of a non-story as Coach Frazier opted to stick with Tim Tebow at QB despite growing pressure to find a more conventional option at the position. With only Josh McCown and Chase Daniel behind him on the depth chart, Tebow’s position seems secure for another year, and after putting up a league high 20 picks in 2012, that is something of a surprise.
Biggest Addition: Draftee Barkevious Mingo was one of the better signings of the draft class and should have an immediate impact for a D-line that struggled to find the QB in 2012. Mingo will line up at LE, with Marcus Stroud next to him and RE David Bowens benefiting from fewer double teams.
Player to Watch: With Mingo getting a lot of attention in 2013, we expect his linemate David Bowens to find himself in more favorable situations, which could allow him to return to top form after an injury-riddled 2-sack 2012 season. We could imagine Bowens topping his career best of 14 sacks if Mingo draws the double teams we expect the rookie will garner on the left side.
Outlook: The Bulls showed some flashes last year, and with the addition of the best edge rusher in the draft, they could be even more competitive in 2013. We are still concerned about the turnovers, particularly Tim Tebow’s issues with throwing into coverage, but there are some reasons to be optimistic this season.
Our Predicted Finish: We see modest improvement in a very tough division. 8-8 and the cusp of the playoffs feels right. That would put them 4th in the division, but on the right path.
2012: 3-13, 5th in Division
Coach: John Fox (1st season)
Offseason Story: Something of a 2-part story as the Renegades, who finished 2012 with a horrific 3-13 record, jumped on Coach John Fox after he was released by the Cannons/Roughnecks. Fox immediately shook things up with a very unexpected move, trading away starting QB Eli Manning. The move sent a clear message, this team would not be the same Renegades that have struggled to make waves in the Southeast Division. Now with a new untested QB in former Wolfpack and Badger Russell Wilson handed the keys to the car, there could be some growing pains, but Fox is certainly making a mark.
Biggest Addition: Orlando traded away Manning for draft picks, and they largely built their 2013 roster with draft additions, the biggest and best of which may be Alabama CB Dee Milliner, who is expected to start from Week One. Expect to see a lot of the draft class in action this season, with HB Latavius Murray, OG Barrett Jones, and DT Montori Hughes all expected to rotate into action from the season’s onset.
Player to Watch: It has to be Russell Wilson, who started only 1 game, the Week 16 mop up game, in 2012 and is now stepping into a starting position largely sight unseen. Wilson will be under immediate pressure to show that Coach Fox made the right call in trading Eli Manning to Memphis. He has some weapons to work with in WRs Michael Jenkins, Justin McCaerins, and DeSean Jackson, but his most reliable target, as was Eli’s, is likely to be TE Greg Olsen. Expect some growing pains and expect Wilson to need to use his legs to salvage some plays, as Orlando still has questions across its offensive line.
Outlook: Orlando was a hot choice to win the division last year, and the results were a total collapse. But this Renegade team will be a very different beast, starting at QB where they are putting a lot of faith in the untested Russell Wilson. Their draft was solid, but it does feel like a bit of a retooling, and that could take time to show results.
Our Predicted Finish: We think they will start to climb after hitting rock bottom last year. It will be a tough season, but one with signs of hope. 6-10 and 5th in the SE Divisoin is our prediction.
2012: 9-7, 3rd in division
Coach: Mike Shula (3rd Season)
Offseason Story: Joey Galloway’s retirement was not a surprise to many in Tampa Bay, and it was well known that they would be a major player in the WR market during free agency, so it was no surprise at all when the Bandits announced that they had landed the one clear number one receiver in the pool. Vincent Jackson comes down to Tampa after some very good years in Pittsburgh. With a solid line, outstanding run game, and a veteran QB already in place in Tampa Bay, Jackson may well have a career year catching balls from Daunte Culpepper.
Biggest Addition: If we take Jackson as a given, the next biggest signing may well be NFL OT Jake Long, a solid protector and good lead blocker for the Miami Dolphins who will now step in at RT for the Bandits, opposite veteran LT Levi Brown. The combo could make Willis McGahee even more dangerous, while also providing Culpepper with the time needed to hit Jackson or number 2 receiver Santonio Holmes on deeper routes.
Player to Watch: TE Luke Stocker saw his numbers dip in 2012 after a strong rookie season in 2011. Tampa Bay is hoping to see him rebound this year, serving as a target for Culpepper over the middle and a release valve when pressured. Stocker is capable of 50 catches and 500 yards, but will need to also block well as the Bandits want to continue to use McGahee on pitches, screens, and swing routes, a major portion of their offensive playbook.
Outlook: Getting both a target and a protector for Daunte Culpepper was key this offseason. Culpepper is not the mobile, play-extending QB he once was, so he will need to get protection and look to shorter routes to get the ball out faster. The defense still remains a question mark, and could again prove to be the Achilles heel that keeps them a step behind clubs like Charlotte and Alanta.
Our Predicted Finish: We think Tampa does enough to leapfrog the Fire and take 2nd place, but we are not sure they have the fortitude on defense to make a deep run in the postseason. Our pick is 10-6 and a Wild Card.
2012: 8-8, 4th in division
Coach: Jim Caldwell (1st Season)
Offseason Story: Tory Holt’s retirement was a bit of a surprise and one that the Blitz did not deal with well. Yes, Baltimore did sign NFL slot receiver Brian Hartline, but that does not help them with their issue at the top of the depth chart. They will go with Derrius Heyward-Bay, the speedster, as their number one, with former Stallion Donte Do and Hartline rounding out the top 3, but that is not a very intimidating or accomplished receiver group for Big Ben to throw to.
Biggest Addition: A weak draft and few free agent acquisitions mean that Baltimore, in most assessments, has backslid a bit after another mid-range season in 2012. In a tough division that is not good. The one addition who is expected to play immediately is FS Eric Weddle, signed away from the Jacksonville Bulls, but overall this has not been a good offseason in Baltimore.
Player to Watch: Derrious-Bey will be under incredible pressure to step up and become a true number one receiver. That seems a lot to ask for a speed guy who has never had more than 67 receptions or 963 yards in a season. In 2012, Bey had a solid 65 for 952 and 6 TDs, which are great numbers for a number 2 receiver, but can he step it up and get into the range of 80-100 receptions and 1,000+ yards in 2013?
Outlook: Fans are beginning to complain that the Blitz have been wasting a franchise QB in Ben Roethlisberger, and now, with Tory Holt gone, the receiving corps looks like one of the weakest in the league. They will need a huge year from Ron Dayne for this offense to work, and on defense, there are still holes to fill. We just don’t see enough here to feel confident that Baltimore can take a step forward in one of the toughest divisions in the league.
Our Predicted Finish: We think 8-8 is once again what we are looking at this year. With a decent Pittsburgh squad replacing the weaker Boston team the division will be even tougher and we would not be surprised if Baltimore ends up in 5th place. Our preseason pick is 8-8 and 4th.
2012: 12-4, 2nd in division, Wild Card
Coach: Herm Edwards (5th Season)
Offseason Story: The Generals had a great 2012 season, finishing at 12-4, but they still felt they had needs, and one of the biggest was a slow, and somewhat ineffective LB group. So, what does Coach Edwards do? He trades with Charlotte to bring in Rey Maualaga and then lands former NY Giant LB Chase Blackburn from the NFL-USFL transfer window. Both are expected to start, surrounding MLB Donterrious Thomas with faster, more aggressive thumpers on either side.
Biggest Addition: We love the Maualaga signing, not only because he is a very good blitzer and a solid run defender, but by trading away Jevon Kearse, who was a midseason acquisition from Michigan when Shaun Ellis went to the IR, New Jersey avoids a controversy, returning an excellent 1-2 combo of Ellis and Aaron Kampman on the D-line. Add rookie William Gholston to the rotation and the Generals could be a very good pressure team with just their front 4.
Player to Watch: Rookie SS Jonathan Cyprien steps in as the starter for the Generals. That is a lot to ask of a guy who played only 2 seasons at Florida International. New Jersey loves his instincts, but he will be a certain target for opposing offenses, at least until he proves that those instincts can keep him from getting burned by the USFL’s complex route trees.
Outlook: A huge step up in 2012 with Sam Bradford having an All-USFL season and the defense could be even better in 2013 with the arrivals of Maualaga and Blackburn in the LB room. The secondary still has some questions as they likely will be starting a rookie at SS, but if Ellis and Kampman can produce pressure without a lot of blitzing, the Generals could be a tough out each week.
Our Predicted Finish: 10-6 and 2nd in the East is our expectation for the Generals, who will be in dogfights each and every divisional game this year.
2012: 12-4, Division Champion
Coach: Jim Harbaugh (9th Season)
Offseason Story: Few in Philadelphia were surprised that Kurt Warner’s 2012 injury led to a decision to retire from the game. Neck injuries are not something to trifle with. That backup Matt Gutierrez had himself a true Cinderella season, finishing the year with the league’s best QBR has Star fans confident that they will not miss a beat with Gutierrez now set as the starter. Matt Moore and Austin Davis back up Gutierrez as Philadelphia stood pat with their QB room this offseason.
Biggest Addition: Rookie TE Travis Kelce steps in right away as the starter and is sure to be a regular target for Gutierrez. The Stars love their outside-inside game, and now, with a receiving TE as well as slot receiver Troy Williamson as options, the Star passing game should be one of the league’s best.
Player to Watch: Stevie Johnson and Reche Caldwell were both amazing at the deep game in 2012, with Johnson gaining over 1,400 yards on only 68 receptions while Caldwell averaged 23 yards per catch. We see both being even more productive in 2013, but think it is Johnson’s year to make himself a household name around the league.
Outlook: The Stars surprised many with their success in a season without Kurt Warner. But now Matt Gutierrez takes on the permanent role as the starter. This is a deep and talented team, but we are concerned that teams will start to adjust to Gutierrez’s game and he will find his 2nd season under center to be a lot tougher than his first.
Our Predicted Finish: This will be a good team, but we are not sure they can win the division again. Both New Jersey and Washington are potentially ahead of them overall. We are going to call it that way, with Philadelphia also going 10-6 but sitting in the 3rd position, which is still likely a Wild Card spot.
2012: 7-9, 2nd in Central Division
Coach: Ron Rivera (8th Season)
Offseason Story: The Maulers had a disappointing 2012 and that has led to some pretty seismic changes. Cody Pickett is gone, traded to Nashville where he will back up Peyton Manning. Andy Dalton is now the starter and he will have a new WR group after Vincent Jackson signed with the Bandits. The new number one is slated to be Victor Cruz, who has steadily climbed the depth chart over his short career. Pittsburgh will then start 2 rookies as well with Tavon Austin in the slot and unheralded Minnesota State product Adam Thielen earning the number 2 spot in camp.
Biggest Addition: As much as fans want it to be DE Dwight Freeney, we think Freeney is a stopgap at best, and will likely only see limited action. We are more excited about WR/KR Joshua Cribbs. Cribbs can turn a game around in one play with his return skills. Expect to see Pittsburgh also use him on offense, largely with screens and underneath routes, turning his return skills to after-the-catch skills. At least that is the hope.
Player to Watch: TE Jimmie Graham. With a very untested WR group, Graham becomes a vital asset to QB Andy Dalton. If Graham can find room in the middle, he could be a key player for the Pittsburgh offense, and he can help drop double coverage from Cruz on the deep balls.
Outlook: The Maulers backslid in 2012, and now they move from a relatively weak Central division to the loaded NE Division. Andy Dalton is now the starter, and he will have some weapons, but the WR group is a bit of a question mark with Vincent Jackson now gone. The defense will be solid, and that may be enough to keep Pittsburgh out of the basement in a division where we could see all 5 teams finish at or above .500.
Our Predicted Finish: We are going to pick the Maulers to finish tied with Baltimore at 8-8 in a very tough division, and that may be enough for them to avoid the basement on tiebreakers. But, we could also see them slip to something like 4-12 if the WR group proves to be as thin as we think it might be.
2012: 12-4, 3rd in division, Wild Card
Coach: Sean Payton (7th Season)
Offseason Story: Washington was good last year, good enough to do very little in the offseason, but they did not stand pat. They added HB Jahvid Best to provide a change of pace for Deuce McCallister, but also added two NFL defenders to help an already solid squad. Both LB Daniel Ellerbe and SS Glover Quinn could be starters by midseason and certainly can contribute as rotational players to start.
Biggest Addition: Rookie LB Alec Ogletree is starting the season at MLB, but we think that when Ellerbe is ready to play he may shift outside to the weak side LB spot opposite Cameron Wake. Ogletree is a bit raw, but the talent is definitely there and we think WLB is the best possible option for him.
Player to Watch: When you have a steady 1,200 yard rusher in the backfield, how motivated are you to rotate him out? With Jahvid Best now an option, Washington may well opt to do so more often. Best is ideally suited as a change of pace back, possibly a 3rd down back. He is not a classic scatback, but his receiving skills and breakaway ability could be a huge option for a Federals team that sometimes feels uninventive with McCallister in the game.
Outlook: We are picking the Federals to win the division after a disappointing exit in last year’s postseason. They still have one of the deepest and most diverse offenses in the league and, as usual, they have tried to add even more to the defense with rookie Alec Ogletree and NFL import Ellerbe. We love the addition of Jahvid Best to help spread the load at HB but this will still be Deuce’s team and his offense to lead.
Our Predicted Finish: We see Washington as a strong contender for the title. They just don’t have the obvious holes or question marks that so many teams have. Our best guess is 12-4, first in the division and a possible number one seed overall.
PREDICTIONS
Every year we do this, and every year we warn you that we are often way off base. Blame it on group think, blame it on giving the prior year’s numbers too much creedence for the coming year, but we did not see St. Louis’s rise on the agenda for last year, and there is a good chance we will miss one this year as well. We also did not anticipate collapses from Orlando or Pittsburgh, and now we question who could be the 2012 playoff team to fall off a cliff in 2013. So, it is with a lot of trepidation that we give you our picks for each division. You know we will get some picks right, and some very very wrong. Knowing that, feel free to put forward your own picks. Maybe you will be better at this than we are.
DIVISIONS
PACIFIC 1-OAK* 2-LV* 3-LA 4-POR 5-SEA
We see this as a 2-way battle between the Invaders and the Thunder, and with Las Vegas dealing with off-field issues that will almost certainly provide a lot of distraction, we think the edge has to go to the Invaders. We see LA as a potential riser, and we are picking the plucky Portland squad as the team that might slide a bit.
SOUTHWEST 1-TEX* 2-HOU* 3-DEN 4-ARZ 5-DAL
Texas was a Summer Bowl favorite last year and we see them in that same light this year. The Outlaws have veteran leadership, speed, talent, and desire across the roster. Their likely rival for the division will be Houston, though we know Denver will stay in the mix somehow. Arizona could be in for a tough season, though they could also surprise us if they can quickly get Frank Gore rolling. Dallas, which struggled to only 3 wins in their final year in Boston, looks very much like a team that is rebuilding from the ground up, and that rarely means a lot of initial success.
CENTRAL 1-STL* 2-CHI* 3-MGN 4-OHI
The Central Division had only 1 team above .500 in 2012, and now, reduced to only 4 teams with Pittsburgh’s departure, they could see that same feat repeated. St. Louis is a worthy champion and has a solid shot to repeat, if, and this is big, if they can generate a run game without Antowain Smith. We see Chicago as the closest team to the Skyhawks, as both they and Michigan are trying to retool their own run game. Ohio is a bit of a mystery, largely due to the uncertainty at QB. They could surprise or they could struggle.
SOUTHERN 1-NOR* 2-NSH 3-BIR 4-MEM
The Southeast has been either the most parity-defined division, or the weakest, depending on who you ask. It seems like every year it comes down to the final game between the Breakers and Knights, with both sitting right around .500. Can anyone win 10 games in this division, or are we headed for that again. We are somewhat hoping to see Birmingham make a run, just because we think a winning Stallion team, with both Terrell Owens and Randy Moss on the squad will be a very entertaining team to follow. Memphis, well, they will be better with Eli Manning, but is better good enough to make any waves?
SOUTHEAST 1-CHA* 2-TBY* 3-ATL 4-JAX 5-ORL
We are predicting a minor shakeup with Tampa Bay and Jacksonville improving and Atlanta possibly taking a step back. We think Charlotte is primed to take the division after a very strong end to 2012, and we see Orlando as a team very much in transition with a new coach and an untested QB. This is the division that could see the most insecurity at the top, with 4 teams possibly fighting it out all year.
NORTHEAST 1-WSH* 2-NJ* 3-PHI* 4-PIT 5-BAL
We may just be providing the Stars with bulletin board fodder with our assessment this year. They are a very solid team, but we just cannot shake the feeling that they are due for a letdown and with both Washington and New Jersey looking very solid, we think it will be a tougher season for Philadelphia. There appears to be a bit of a gap between the top 3 and the bottom 2, and, quite frankly, Pittsburgh could be a real wild card in the mix. They will certainly be a tougher foe than Boston was last season, and in a division where a 1-game letdown could be the difference between a division title and 3rd place, the Mauler games could be a real sign of what to expect.
PLAYOFFS
You see our picks in each division, and from those picks we have chosen our 12 playoff teams. In the East we see Washington as the top seed, with Charlotte right there, and New Orleans grabbing the final title, again by a hair. In the West the three division champs, in order of seeding, are picked to be Texas, St. Louis, and then Oakland. The Wild Cards we are picking are the Generals, Stars, and Bandits in the East and the Gamblers, Thunder, and Machine in the West.
As we imagine the playoffs, we anticipate that it will be St. Louis and Texas facing off in the Western final, and with Joe Flacco healthy (we hope), we are going to go with the Outlaws to make a Summer Bowl appearance. We see the East as a NE Division showdown with Washington edging New Jersey in the Conference title.
That sets up an Outlaws v. Federals showdown in the Summer Bowl. That will be a tough game to predict, but we are going to lean towards Texas just because we feel they have more hunger, having never won a title, and we just think Joe Flacco has more to offer in a big game than David Garrard. Our pick for the 2013 USFL champion is Texas.
AWARD WINNERS
The last set of picks are the major award winners. We tend to do a little better here than we do with predicting wins and losses across the league, but still, there come seasons that surprise us, as Josh Freeman’s and Matt Gutierrez’s certainly did last year. But, barring major injuries (always a concern), this is where we think the voting will be in July, when the USFL season wraps up.
MVP
Always a battle of QB’s we think this year that battle will be fully in the West, between Josh Freeman, the defending MVP, and Texas QB Joe Flacco. They control two of the best offenses in the league and we expect their teams to be atop their divisions, so it will likely come down to some flashy game highlights and maybe a dramatic game-ending drive here and there to decide the winner.
OPOTY
If Washington is a contender, then there will be some emotional weight behind giving the OPOTY to star HB Deuce McCallister. But that only works if he ends up in the Top 3 rushers in 2013, something that did not happen in 2012. If he cannot, then we think it could go to a rising star like Portland HB Jonathan Stewart or a receiver like Texas’s Marques Colston or Philadelphia’s Stevie Johnson.
DPOTY
We all expect Calais Campbell to be in the mix, but if Orlando is again an also-ran in the playoff hunt even a stellar season from Campbell may not be enough. If that is the case, then other pass rushers like Texas’s Reynaldo Wynn (2012 winner) or Oakland’s Justin Smith could make a push. Don’t count out a “career recognition” vote for James Farrior, who led the league in tackles for Houston and could do so again.
ROTY
The early odds are for whichever of the two new Central Division HBs can have the best rookie year, either Eddie Lacy taking over for Antowain Smith in St. Louis or Michigan’s LeVeon Bell. Halfback is a position that tends to start quickly, and with no rookie signal callers this year in the mix, we think that is the likely source for a ROTY. But, don’t sleep on WR Keenan Allen, who is well positioned with a very good placement in Oakland. He could see a lot of action and a lot of stats this year.
COTY
As always we are going to look for the coach whose team does the most with the least. Typically this award goes to the team that makes the biggest leap from one year to the next, which makes it one of the toughest awards to guess in the preseason because by its nature we are looking for a surprise team. We think the most likely surprise teams could be the LA Express and the Jacksonville Bulls, so that makes the favorites for the award either first year coach Andy Reid in LA, or veteran Leslie Frazier in Jacksonville. Reid comes to the USFL with a huge reputation and a winning track record, so he is our early choice, even if USFL voters may hesitate to recognize an NFL coach as the new best coach in the USFL.
The 2013 USFL season kicks off with a Friday Night matchup of contenders in the SE Division. Charlotte, coming off their great playoff run, heads to Atlanta to face the defending division champion in a game that should be dominated by both defenses. Don’t expect to see Stephen Jackson on the field for Atlanta yet, so Charlotte may have the advantage here.
Saturday has the new schedule with two evening games and all 6 games on nationwide broadcast, including the first NBC Saturday game, which has Baltimore traveling to Philadelphia in an early NE Division test. The late game, a 9pm ET start, has Denver in Arizona in a rivalry game kicking off at 6pm locally, which is a first for the league. Another great Week 1 Saturday game has Houston visiting St. Louis in an early test for the defending league champions.
Sunday kicks off at noon with 3 games, including divisional matchups with Birmingham at Nashville and Washington traveling to Pittsburgh. The national broadcast in the afternoon slot features LA at Dallas in what should be a very rowdy and celebratory atmosphere at Cotton Bowl Stadium as the Roughnecks begin their run in their new home and with their new fanbase. The first week wraps up with a Florida Derby matchup as Russell Wilson and the Renegades face a tough opener in Tampa Bay, where Vincent Jackson debuts as Daunte Culpepper’s new target.
Friday @ 8pm Charlotte Monarchs @ Atlanta Fire NBC
Saturday @ 12pm New Jersey Generals @ Michigan Panthers ABC
Saturday @ 12pm Jacksonville Bulls @ New Orleans Breakers FOX
Saturday @ 4pm Houston Gamblers @ St. Louis Skyhawks ABC
Saturday @ 4pm Oakland Invaders @ Seattle Dragons FOX
Saturday @ 7pm Baltimore Blitz @ Philadelphia Stars NBC
Saturday @ 9pm Denver Gold @ Arizona Wranglers ESPN/EFN
Sunday @ 12pm Las Vegas Thunder @ Chicago Machine ABC
Sunday @ 12pm Birmingham Stallions @ Nashville Knights ABC
Sunday @ 12pm Washington Federals @ Pittsburgh Maulers FOX
Sunday @ 4pm Los Angeles Express @ Dallas Roughnecks ABC
Sunday @ 4pm Texas Outlaws @ Ohio Glory FOX
Sunday @ 4pm Memphis Showboats @ Portland Stags FOX
Sunday @ 8pm Orlando Renegades @ Tampa Bay Bandits ESPN/EFN