For as long as the USFL has had a 16-game season, Week 10 has been seen as the start of the playoff run. By this time in the season we have a very good idea who the frontrunners are, who the bubble teams are, and who is likely thinking about their golf game already. But, with every season we also see teams that come out of nowhere down the stretch and others who spiral out of control in the season's final month. Did week 10 give us any hints as to who may be about to put it all together and who may be about to see their season fall apart? Well, read on and see what you find.
BALTIMORE BLITZ 26 OHIO GLORY 23
Two teams on the fringe of the Wild Card race, Baltimore at 4-5 after winning 3 of their last 4, Ohio sitting at 5-4, but having lost 3 of the last 4. Would this be a story of two teams headed in opposite directions or would Ohio’s big win over Washington the week before put them back on the right track. The Glory still had a Top 5 offense, able to both run and pass the ball against most defenses. Baltimore relies on their defense, as they are still barely averaging 20 points per game despite good outings in recent weeks.
The game would be played in the late afternoon on Sunday, and it would be perfect conditions for football, a high barely topping 80 degrees but dropping throughout the game, no rain, and little wind, a perfect setting for a big game. The Blitz won the toss but deferred to the second half and Ohio, as they had done against Washington the week before, hoped to score on the opening drive. Using plays pre-arranged, as most teams did, the Glory moved the ball effectively on the opening drive. In just about 3 minutes there were into Baltimore territory, and on the Blitz 34-yard line they got their first bi play of the game. Isaiah Pead took one step to the left and then cut back to the right. The Blitz defense overcompensated on the initial move and were out of position. Pead was able to find a crease and before Baltimore knew what hit them, the big Ohio back was in the secondary. A strong shoulder to the cornerback and Pead was off along the sideline, racing the full 34 yards to paydirt. It was exactly the start that Ohio fans hoped for and the crowd of 41,304 made their voices heard.
Baltmore would not have much luck on their first drive, with a third-down pass too high and out of reach for Darrius Heyward-Bey. Following their punt, Ohio was again on the move. This time it was the passing game that produced the bigger plays, with Weinke connecting with Javon Walker for 17 yards before finding Steve Smith for a scoring strike from the 29. It was not looking particularly good for the Blitz with 6 minutes still left in the opening quarter but down by 14.
Baltimore rallied, as Washington had done the week before. They altered their strategy, picked up the tempo, and used Ron Dayne as a cudgel to force Ohio into more 8-man fronts. With that in place, Ben Roethlisberger was able to find Robert Ferguson and Antonio Gates on consecutive plays to get inside the 10. From there, Ron Dayne did his thing and pounded the ball in for the score. The second quarter began with Ohio leading by 7.
In the 2nd, again much like the week prior, both defenses stiffened up, both offenses lost their earlier rhythm and we only saw a lone Baltimore field goal in the quarter. 14-10 Ohio as the two went into the break. As they came out for the second half, something odd was noticed right away. It was Tony Pike, and not Chris Weinke who was taking warm up throws on the sideline as Baltimore started with the ball. Weinke had not returned from the locker room. As Baltimore slowly worked their way down the field, a drive that led to a go-ahead score for Dayne, fans in Columbus wondered where their starter was. We would find out later that he was in the locker room trying to loosen up an ankle that he tweaked not in on-field action, but on his jog back to the locker room, when he caught the seam from field to concrete awkwardly. A weird way to get hurt, but a concern nonetheless.
After the Ron Dayne TD put Baltimore up 17-14, Ohio would rally behind Pike and would even up the score at 17 with a David Green field goal, but Baltimore felt that without Weinke they certainly had the upper hand. They too drove down the field, but another miss, this time with Big Ben’s arm being clipped by an Ohio defender just as he released the ball, meant a fourth down and Baltimore settled for a 39-yard Nick Folk kick to end the 3rd at 20-17.
Ohio would need to rally in the 4th, but down only 3, they still had the full support of their home crowd. That crowd helped to rally support for the team as they worked their way into Baltimore territory to start the fourth quarter. The drive stalled at the 32, which put David Green back on the field. He connected from 49 yards out and once again we had a tie score. This would be the them of the 4th quarter, with both teams moving the ball well within the 30’s but stalling out. There would be a grand total of 4 field goals in the period. First Ohio’s to even the score, then a 22-yard kick from Nick Folk to put Baltimore up 23-20 with 6:28 left. When Ohio again tied the game at 23 with a 30-yard kick from Green with only 1:04 left, many in the stadium started preparing for overtime. But, Coach Caldwell and the Blitz were not going to play along.
Caldwell put the ball in Ben Roethlisberger’s hands, and the big QB did what any franchise QB should, he led a quick-paced sprint down the field to get into range for Nick Folk. Connecting with his newly acquired target Robert Ferguson for 14 yards, then with Antonio Gates for 7 and Brian Hartline for 12, Big Ben got the team in range. Not wanting to give Ohio any time, the Blitz ran Ron Dayne into the line twice before bringing Nick Folk out with just over 9 seconds left to go. Folk would need to connect from 33 yards out, which was not much to ask of a veteran kicker. Folks’s kick was good and Baltimore moved to 5-5, knocking Ohio to the same record.
Roethlisberger finished the game with 314 yards, and while he did not throw a TD, he did what he needed to do to get the W. Ron Dayne finished with 97 yards on 16 carries, including both Blitz TDs. Both Robert Fergusion and Darrius Heyward-Bey just missed 100 yards, Fergie ending at 99, DHB with 97. For Ohio, Isaiah Pead finished with 89 yards on 17 carries. Steve Smith cracked 100 yards, with 7 catches for 108, and Tony Pike finished the game with a 12 of 17 performance, but no TD’s as the second half saw only field goals from the Glory.
DENVER 41 HOUSTON 20
A big day for DeMarco Murray and an even bigger win for the Gold as they have a huge day on both sides of the ball. CB Jamar Fletcher took advantage of Houston’s Tim Rattay with not one, but two pick-sixes, a 32- and a 52-yarder. Murray rushed for 114 and a score, and Matt Leinart threw for 2 more as Denver took advantage of a Houston squad clearly not up to speed with Matt Hasselbeck sidelined.
PHILADELPHIA 30 PITTSBURGH 21
Philadelphia bounces back from their home loss to Memphis by shutting out Pittsburgh in the 2nd half and focusing on the passing game with Matt Gutierrez. Gutierrez threw for only 198 yards but his 4 TDs helped Philadelphia pull away after 2 early Tavon Austin TDs had Pittsburgh looking very competitive in this one.
NASHVILLE 24 CHARLOTTE 17
A bit of an upset and a good outing for former Mauler QB Cody Pickett, subbing for a dinged up Peyton Manning. Pickett threw for 262 and 3 scores on the day as Nashville built up a 24-10 lead before a late TD helped Charlotte get into striking range. Pickett found a favorite target in WR Ahmad Merrit, who caught 2 of his 3 TDs.
DALLAS 14 CHICAGO 38
The Roughnecks drop their 8th in a row as Chicago gets 3 TDs from Aaron Dobson, who is developing into a major weapon for Brady Quinn this season. Dobson caught 7 of 10 targets and 3 scoring tosses as the Machine move to 7-3, alone atop the Central Division.
TAMPA BAY 44 TEXAS 24
Texas was not expecting to see vintage prime Daunte Culpepper, but that is what they got. The Bandit QB went 17 of 21 for 359 yards, connecting on several deep balls. Santonio Holmes was the big weapon, catching 5 passes for 171 yards and 2 scores, including a 71-yard bomb that stunned and silenced the San Antonio crowd. Vincent Jackson also had 2 TDs as Tampa Bay scored early and often against a seemingly overwhelmed and shellshocked Outlaw defense. Arian Foster burst out for 188 yards on the day, but to no avail against a Bandit squad that scored on 8 of 9 possessions in the game.
ORLANDO 10 ATLANTA 16
Two pretty solid defenses clashed in this SE Division matchup, but the best day of Steven Jackson’s short USFL career helped give the homestanding Fire the win. Jackson busted out for 112 yards on only 18 carries, including a 26-yard TD run in the 2nd that gave Atlanta a 13-3 lead at that time. Both QB’s limped out of this one, with Kyle Orton sacked 4 times but Russell Wilson getting the worst of it, surviving 8 Atlanta sacks, including 2 each from Chris Kelsay and Keyonta Marshall.
LOS ANGELES 21 SEATTLE 12
Another divisional win for the Express as they move to 4-1 in divisional play this season. Reggie Bush had his best game as a USFL back, rushing for 114 on 19 carries. The game was close throughout but a Dominique Rogers-Cromartie pick-six of Matt Flynn turned out to be the game winner for the Express, who move to 5-5 after 10 weeks.
LAS VEGAS 38 BIRMINGHAM 20
The Thunder, and especially QB Jake Plummer, continue to impress with a nice road win over a very tough Birmingham squad. Plummer had a career day with 385 yards passing. He also connected with T. J. Houshmandzadeh for 3 scores and added a 4th TD to TE Ben Watson as the Thunder pulled away in the 2nd half.
WASHINGTON 7 JACKSONVILLE 6
A thunderstorm caused a 45-minute delay in the start of the 2nd half, and the entire game was something of a slop-fest as both Joe Webb and Tim Tebow tried and failed to create offense for their clubs. Washington got an early TD from Jahvid Best and that held up as Jacksonville’s David Akers connected on 2 second half field goals but went only 2 for 7 on field goals attempts in the nasty conditions.
OAKLAND 27 MEMPHIS 19
After seeing what the Showboats did to Philly last week, the Invaders were ready, and while Eli Manning was able to pass for 341 yards, the Memphis offense time and again had to settle for field goals. As for Oakland’s offense, Ryan Williams moved into the rushing leader board with 113 yards and a TD on the day. Keenan Allen also continued his outstanding rookie season with 5 catches for 80 yards and 2 scores to win ROTW for Week 10.
PORTLAND 21 NEW ORLEANS 7
We said we were concerned about the Breakers and a 14-point loss at home to Portland certainly shows that our concerns were valid. Drew Brees was picked off 3 times and the Breakers were simply flat all throughout a game they needed to win. It was hardly a dynamic performance by the Stags, but New Orleans just was not focused and it showed.
ARIZONA 20 MICHIGAN 10
Tyler Thigpen got the start as Kirk Cousins was dinged up, and, well, let’s just say that going up against Arizona’s defense was not what he wanted to do. The Michigan D had a halfway decent day, limiting Frank Gore to only 82 yards, and Arizona to only 2 touchdowns, but the Michigan offense just could not produce enough to stay in this one as Arizona moves to an impressive 10-0.
ST. LOUIS 28 NEW JERSEY 13
The Skyhawks needed this one to return to 5-5, and they wanted to put on a show on ESPN’s Sunday Night Showdown. They did both against a Generals team that just does not hold up well. We will say that in his first start, replacing Michael Crabtree, Muhamed Sanu looked good, catching 7 balls for 134 yards and a score. A bright spot for New Jersey. St. Louis got 3 scores from Josh Freeman and David Nelson again proved to be a good sub for Jordi Nelson, leading the Skyhawks with 5 receptions and a TD.
Another Great Week for Tailbacks
It was another solid week for the league’s backs, especially some of the new faces across the league, as both of the big-name NFL imports finally cracked the 100-yard mark. It was not the league leaders, Gore or McCallister that had the biggest days either. Both were held under the century mark by defenses designed to limit their options. It was a day for backs who were very much still trying to prove themselves.
Steven Jackson (ATL) recorded his first 100-yard game, ringing up 112 yards and a TD on only 18 carries, a very nice 6.2 yards per carry against the Renegades.
In Seattle, Reggie Bush (LA) had his best game as a USFL back, rushing for 114 yards in a key divisional win over the Dragons. It was the most carries and the best results Bush had seen this year.
Denver’s DeMarco Murray had been splitting carries with Lemichael James, and did so this week, but after racking up 114 on only 13 carries, including a 36-yard jaunt and a TD, we may see Murray finally emerge as the true starter for the Gold.
In Chicago, Doug Martin has been a part of the Machine’s 2013 success story all year. He had put up two 100-yard games earlier in the season, but it had been since Week 4 that we had seen the century mark eclipsed by the 2nd year back. Against Dallas, Martin had a field day. He carried the ball 32 times, putting up 142 yards along the way and helping Chicago move to 7-3 on the year.
Oakland’s Ryan Williams has been one of several pleasant surprises for the Invaders this year. After 10 games he is within 10 yards of his career best season and could easily crack 1,000 for the first time this year. Against Memphis he put up his 4th 100-yard game of the year, rushing for 113 and a score on 23 carries.
We have been waiting to see the old Marshawn Lynch after he returned from an early season injury, and it looks like he is getting back to 100% just in time for a late season division title push. The big back averaged 5.1 yards per carry, rushing for 108 on 21 carries in a big road win against the Stallions.
But, by far the biggest day was had in defeat as Texas’s Arian Foster put up a whopping 188 yards on only 20 carries, an eye-popping 9.4 yards per carry, but, with Tampa Bay scoring at will against the Outlaws, it was to no avail. Even with his huge day, the Outlaws suffered a 20-point defeat at home to the visiting Bandits.
Could Season 17 Be the Golden Year for Jake Plummer?
Jake Plummer may not be the league leader in passing yards (he sits 8th after missing a couple of starts), but his 19 TDs and his 124.5 QB Rating have many wondering if the two-time MVP is in line for a third award and, more importantly, his first championship. Plummer is the kind of player fans of other teams root for when their club is not in the game. A steady performer who used to thrill Arizona fans with his dual threat ability, but a player who in recent years has simply become one of the best passers in the gam while still retaining the swagger of a younger gunslinger mentality.
Plummer is on pace for a possible 4,000 yard/30 TD season, but what he and his fans most want is for him to lift the John Bassett Trophy in his 17th season in the league. But, with an almost cruel irony, the team that seems poised to prevent that for Plummer is none other than his former squad, the Arizona Wranglers. Las Vegas is hoping to take the Pacific Title and to edge past Chicago for the 2nd seed in the West, but Arizona is already 3 games up on the Thunder for the top seed and home field advantage. Riding a historically stingy defense, the Wranglers are very much looking like a team of destiny, but a destiny that Plummer and his fans hope is thwarted.
In a season when the Las Vegas franchise is undergoing both turmoil and public humiliation due to the unethical and likely illegal actions of their principal owners, the team on the field is looking to be on solid ground. The Thunder sit at 7-3, and have both a Top 10 offense and a Top 10 defense after 10 weeks. Plummer led the Thunder to their first division title since moving from Portland in 2012, and the hopes this year were that the team could go one step further. Plummer is playing some of his best ball, Marshawn Lynch is back from injury, and the receiving duo of Chad Johnson and T. J. Houshmandzadeh is one of the most dangerous in the league, combining for nearly 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns so far this year. But, many are wondering what it means if they find themselves up against an Arizona buzzsaw come the playoffs.
Is ROTY Now a 2-Man Race?
It certainly seems that way, with Oakland receiver Keenan Allen and St. Louis tailback Eddie Lacy looking like they have put a lot of space between themselves and the rest of the field. Allen leads all rookie receivers with 48 receptions, over 670 yards, and 5 TDs. He has been so reliable for Joey Harrington that the club felt comfortable trading away Greg Jennings in a 3-team deal that brought the Invaders several draft picks. Lacy is leading all rookie backs with 758 yards on the ground, and should have a fair chance of cracking 1,000 yards in his first campaign. The rookie has helped the Skyhawks emerge after a nasty 0-3 start and has them in the thick of the Wild Card race with a potential run at 1st place Chicago still in the cards.
Voting will not take place until the first week of the playoffs, but as of right now, these two offensive stars in the making look like it will be a one-on-one showdown come award season.
Can Steve Smith Win MVP as a Receiver?
Speaking of awards, fans in Ohio are wondering if WR Steve Smith can do the nearly unthinkable, win a league MVP as a receiver. Often seen as a position that is so dependent on good QB play that the receiver cannot win the title without pushing the QB ahead of him in the voting, Smith’s position seems uniquely located to give him a shot. While Chris Weinke is certainly having a good year, it is Smith’s ability to maintain strong numbers regardless of the signal caller that is so impressive. He has done it with Weinke under center, but also looked strong with Vince Young and even Tony Pike putting the ball up.
Smith has put up 100-yard games five times this season, including each of the past 3 games. He has over 1,000 yards already, and is nearly 200 yards ahead of the 2nd place receiver, Outlaw Marques Colston. In addition to leading the league in yards by a wide margin, he also has a 20 reception lead over Robert Meachem as we count receptions. Yes, a 20-reception lead. He is one of only 3 receivers (Keyshawn Johnson and Victor Cruz) with more than 100 targets, and he is racking up yards largely in smaller chunks, averaging only 12.2 yards per catch.
But, the truth remains that MVP is almost always a QB-only category. This year the QB’s being spoken about include Jake Plummer, Birmingham’s Cam Newton, and even Tampa Bay’s Daunte Culpepper, whose 26 TD passes is 7 more than the closest competitor. Add to the mix the interest in recognizing Frank Gore for his amazing contributions to Arizona’s 10-0 season and you have a tall hill to climb for Smith, even though his accomplishments in Ohio this year have been very deserving of recognition.
As is typical for the first Playoff Status Report of the year, Week 10 shows no teams clinched, but it certainly looks like that will change soon as Arizona sits at 10-0. They appear destined for a number one seed even if they are not able to keep their undefeated season intact. Also looking good are the Philadelphia Stars and Washington Federals, though only 1 can be NE Division Champions. Denver put their best foot forward this week and were rewarded with the 6th spot in the West. St. Louis and Ohio are right there as well, though currently outside looking in.
In the East, Baltimore, with a 3rd consecutive win, is in the mix in the 6th spot, edging out a cluster of 4-6 teams. Charlotte and Atlanta now sit tied atop the Southeast Division, while Birmingham holds a 2-game lead in the South.
No one is eliminated at present, but at 2-8, Jacksonville, Michigan, and Dallas are on life support. We expect the Roughnecks would be happy just to snap an 8-game losing streak, but all three are on the edge as we enter Week 11.
With 6 weeks left to play, we are seeing more and more teams opting to use IR as players come up against the reality that even a 4-week injury could mean that their regular season is done. Four more players were added to IR this week, including two defenders who have had a big impact on their clubs, cornerback Nnambi Asomugha in Baltimore and LB Paul Posluszny, a defensive captain for the Renegades. With the home stretch underway, every injury is a possible blow to a team’s playoff hopes, even moreso when that team is on the outside looking in or sitting right on the fringe. Here is the full list of new additions to the Injury Report heading into Week 11.
OUT
CB Nnambi Asomugha BAL Broken Leg IR
FB Jerome Felton SEA Torn Hamstring IR
LB Paul Posluszny ORL Leg Fracture IR
HB LeRon McClain LA Knee IR
DT Corey Liuget WSH Hip 4-6 Weeks
OT Willie Colon HOU Knee 2-4 Weeks
FB Tommy Bohanan WSH MCL 2-4 Weeks
DE Fred Perry CHA Knee 1-2 Weeks
DOUBTFUL
DT Ellis Wyms CHI Ribs
QUESTIONABLE
CB Nathan Vasher TEX Finger
QB Joey Harrington OAK Concussion
HB Jonathan Stewart POR Thigh
WR Antonio Bryant ARZ Shoulder
Evaluating the Last 3 Rookie Classes
It is a Herculean task to try to accurately predict how a rookie class will fare, which teams found gems and chose wisely and which muffed their opportunity. It can easily take 4-5 years to determine who has been a Prime Grade pick, who has been solid, and who has fallen short of their hype. But, no one wants to wait 5 years to start assessing, including us. So we are going to revisit the past three drafts and get a sense of what has gone well and what has not. Yes, it is way too early, especially for the class of 2013, but that is the nature of the game. We will go year by year, highlight 4-5 players who have made a huge difference for their teams, 4-5 who have become solid starters, and 3-4 who have yet to truly prove themselves and run the risk of receiving the dreaded “draft bust” moniker. We start with the 2011 draft, which has given us a sample size of 52 games so far, then 2012 (26 games) and finally the very early assessment of 2013 (10 games).
2011 DRAFT
Breakout Stars:
While not every one of these 3rd year players is a household name, they are all major contributors and leaders on their teams already.
HB Ryan Williams (OAK): He is having his best year to date, but in 3 seasons, his 2,791 all-purpose yards and 19 combined TDs (rushing & receiving) have made him an indispensable part of a pretty solid Invader Offense.
CB Patrick Peterson (NOR): Peterson has proven to be one of the most consistent and one of the more dangerous DB’s in the league. He has 7 picks in 2.5 seasons, including 2 pick-sixes, and with his 176 tackles, he is fulfilling everything the Breakers could have wanted from a cornerback.
LB Aldon Smith (STL): Selected a team captain this year, the 3rd year LB has a stunning 46 tackles for loss among his 218 tackles in 32 starts. Add in 8 sacks and, oh yes, a league title in St. Louis, and you have a defensive stud to be celebrated.
C Mike Pouncey (CHA): The Monarchs found themselves an All-USFL center in the 2013 draft, and a big reason why the run game of Fred Jackson helped not only propel Charlotte to the playoffs last year, but two upset wins with rookie Brandon Wheedon at QB. Pouncey is a nasty blocker and athletic enough to lead the way for Jackson and the Monarch run game.
DE Robert Quinn (BAL): Quinn has not gotten the press he deserves in Baltimore. The Blitz have not been world-beaters, but Quinn, with 100 tackles and 25 sacks in 39 starts is looking very much the part of a future 20-sack edge rusher.
Steady Contributors:
These players have earned their way to a starting spot, and may be on the verge of something bigger. Their path has not always been a straight upward trajectory, but they are valued team members and could develop into major factors for their squads.
QB Cam Newton (BIR): We were very tempted to put Newton in the Breakout category, and certainly this year he is playing the part of a superstar 1st rounder. His rookie season was strong, but flawed, and his sophomore campaign was a bit of a setback, but if this year is any indication, Newton could well be a leaguewide superstar for years to come.
DT Corey Liuget (WSH): Moving from a rotational player to a starter in his sophomore year, Liuget is proving to be an impressive inside pressure tackle. He has 11 sacks and 91 tackles as DT and is also a reason that Chris Long is having such a good year outside.
DE Cameron Jordan (OAK): A second strong pick for the Invaders in 2011, Jordan has 20 sacks in 42 starts and has been solid since he began taking snaps early in his first year. We are still waiting for the breakout that puts him among elite edge rushers, but his role for the Invaders is certainly secure.
DT Marcel Dareus (OHI): Dareus was the consensus #1 DT on the board in 2013, but it has taken him a while to get his legs under him in the pro game. He is having a good season for Ohio this year, and he does have 141 tackles in only 40 starts, so he has certainly earned a starting spot.
QB Andy Dalton (PIT): His 3,069 yards and a 20:18 TD:INT ratio are not exactly All-USFL numbers, but Pittsburgh liked him well enough to trade away Cody Pickett and hand the starting position to him as a sophomore. If he continues to develop, he could be a player that Mauler fans can rally behind.
Yet to Shine:
These players came into the league with high expectations, but so far have struggled to make the leap from college accolades to the pro game. It is not too late, but the clock is ticking for each.
QB Jake Locker (BOS/DAL): Locker was to be the golden boy for the Cannons, the next Drew Bledsoe, but so far he has been a bit more Ryan Leaf than Bledsoe. He is currently battling with rookie Landry Jones to be the starter on a Dallas club that has lost 8 games in a row.
WR Randall Cobb (OHI): Cobb was expected to jump right into the slot position and become a major target for Vince Young (now Chris Weinke), but he has yet to be able to supplant Javon Walker as the primary slot receiver. With only 14 starts and 25 receptions in 3 years, it may just be that Cobb needs a change of scenery to find himself.
OT Nate Solder (DEN): While earning 30 starts in 3 years, the jury is still out on Solder. Why? Well, how about allowing 19 sacks in those 30 games. That is not exactly the kind of success you expect of a highly rated college tackle. Denver wants him to succeed, but cannot afford to keep putting Matt Leinart at risk if he just cannot handle the speed of USFL edge rushers.
2012 DRAFT
Breakout Stars:
A draft without a clear “cannot miss” QB prospect, the 2012 draft so far has been about players who may not have been the biggest names coming out of college, but who have started to assert themselves as pros.
WR Justin Blackmon (JAX): Blackmon has been a rare bright spot in a pretty bad 2 season stretch in Jacksonville. With over 140 receptions and 2,000 yards under his belt already, Blackmon needs more help if Jacksonville is going to turn things around, but he is certainly doing his part.
HB Doug Martin (CH): Martin is having a breakout season with the Machine, but it was the early signs of potential last season that gave Chicago the confidence to trade away veteran Michael Turner. They have not regretted the choice, with Martin currently among the league leaders on the rushing list.
CB Dre Kirkpatrick (MGN): Originally slated to go to Denver, a violation of tampering regulations sent Kirkpatrick to Michigan instead, and the Panthers have been very happy with the result. Kirkpatrick was an instant starter on a pretty weak Michigan secondary, and has paid off with 8 picks in 26 starts.
LB Bobby Wagner (OAK): Someone is doing their job at peak level in Oakland. Another really strong draft pick in 2012, as Bobby Wagner has already become a leader on the Invader defense, and why not, with 159 tackles in only 24 starts, including a whopping 15 forced fumbles, Wagner is one of the most ferocious “enforcers” in the league.
TE Coby Fleener (NOR): After hitting on Patrick Peterson in 2011, the Breakers found another solid pick in 2012 with Fleener. The Stanford TE already has 94 receptions, 7 TDs, and 1,056 yards despite not becoming a regular starter until midseason last year.
Steady Contributors:
We are beginning to see a pattern in the teams we see doing well, with another Machine pick and another Charlotte player appearing now.
WR Michael Floyd (CHI): Floyd started 10 games last year and came to camp as the number one target for Brady Quinn. A reliable possession receiver and red zone target, Floyd is not blazing past defenders, but his route running is helping Quinn lead a very strong Chicago squad to a possible division title this year.
QB Brandon Wheedon (CHA): We are not ready to anoint Wheedon the starter for the future, but in two different backup stints, he has proven that he is poised under pressure and can lead the squad. From his stunning 2012 playoff run to his current stand-in role for the injured Jake Delhomme, Wheedon is not wowing us with huge numbers, but he is winning games, which sort of matters a lot.
S Mark Barron (LV): The Thunder have been thrilled with Barron’s leadership and his drive to the ball. He has not put up huge numbers yet, but he has certainly been a major part of the success of the Thunder defense as they try for a division title in the desert.
LB Luke Kuechley (BOS>ATL): Kuechley came with a lot of expectations and, while 131 tackles and 10 TFL is nice, he has not yet had the kind of impact the Cannons expected, which is why he was available to Atlanta in trade this year. We will need to check back on the former BC linebacker after he gets up to speed with the Fire to see if he pays off on the potential we saw in college.
Yet to Shine:
Way too early to write these players off, but the time is now for them to start showing that they are capable of living up to the expectations.
OT Matt Kalil (LA): Kalil has started every game in LA since arriving last year, but the 6 sacks he has allowed are a concern. Still on the right side, LA was hoping to move him to LT this year, but he has just not shown them enough to make that move.
WR Brian Quick (POR): The Stags hoped they were getting Mike Quick version 2.0 when they drafted the speedy receiver, but with only 1 start and 4 receptions to his name in 26 games, so far Stag fans are unimpressed. Portland’s offense needed a playmaker and so far they are not getting that from Quick.
DE Bruce Irvin (OHI): Irvin was to be the solution on the edge, but he has yet to earn a start in his first 26 games. He has 1 tackle and 1 sack on record. This is not the production Ohio wants or needs.
HB David Wilson (WSH): We are not shocked that Wilson has no starts for the Federals. He was always going to be a backup for McCallister, but something triggered Washington to bring in Jahvid Best in the offseason, and that has pushed Wilson down to 3rd on the depth chart and a very possible offseason cap cut, not what Feds fans wanted from the tailback.
2013 DRAFT
Breakout Stars:
We are only 10 games into these players’ careers, but already we are seeing big things.
WR Keenan Allen (OAK): You knew Allen would have to be at the top of this list. A ROTY frontrunner, the receiver not only got his first start in only the 3rd game of the year, but was so good in camp and in early games that the Invaders made a deal to send Greg Jennings away in trade. That is an impressive first impression.
HB Eddie Lacy (STL): The other ROTY contender, Lacy has been everything the Skyhawks had hoped for after the retirement of Antowain Smith. In his 10 starts he has averaged over 75 yards per game and has 7 TDs in his rookie campaign, with 6 games left to play.
DE Barkevious Mingo (JAX): Another good draft pick in Jacksonville. The wins have not come yet, but Mingo is certainly doing his part with 6 sacks and a safety in his first 10 games.
DT Star Lotuleilei (DAL): Lotuleilei made a huge first impression, winning Rookie of the Week in the season’s opening week, and while his numbers have not continued at the same pace, his presence, even during the Roughnecks’ 8-game losing streak, has not gone unnoticed.
DE Dion Jordan (POR): The Stags may not be knocking on the door of a division title, but don’t put that on Jordan. 7 sacks in his first 10 games have folks in Portland very happy with the local Oregon product.
LB Alec Ogletree (WSH): The Feds feel they got a steal in Ogletree, who already has 33 tackles and 6 TFL in his first 9 starts. He is not Antonio Pierce, but who is. What he has shown is that he is not overwhelmed by the pace of the pro game and not afraid to lay hits on back, which is what the Feds were hoping to get.
Steady Contributors:
These players have seen quite a bit of action, with mixed results, but enough production that we think their roles will only increase in importance.
CB Dee Milliner (ORL): Another player who quickly got a starting gig, Milliner has been pretty solid, with 29 tackles and 2 picks this year, but has also gotten burnt on some double moves as a rookie.
LB Manti Te’o (CHI): Teo’s on-field performance for Chicago has been solid, with 44 tackles and 2 sacks in his first 5 starts, but the off-field weirdness of an apparent catfishing scandal has left Chicago fans a bit leary of Teo and the Chicago sports radio crowd pretty harsh in general.
HB LeVeon Bell (MGN): In comparison with Eddie Lacy, Bell’s numbers have not kept pace, but he is still one of the bright spots for the Panthers, whose run game has been a joke for several years. With 685 Yds after 10 weeks, Bell may not make the 1,000 yard mark, but he is still off to a decent start on an offense still trying to find itself.
WR Tavon Austin (PIT): We considered moving Austin down to the “Yet to Shine” category, because he has only 2 starts to his name so far, and has not even taken over the full-time position as the slot man. But, he has been strong as a kick returner and the fact that of his 15 receptions this year, 4 are for scores, does show potential for a breakout once he is able to get on the field more consistently.
Yet to Shine:
S Kenny Vaccaro (HOU): Injuries have beent he biggest issue for Vaccaro. A preseason nick and held him out of the season opener, and when he did get into the starting lineup, he got dinged again and missed more action. 1 start in 10 games was not what Houston was hoping for when they drafted Vaccaro.
WR Justin Hunter (NSH): Expected to be an instant target opposite Robert Meachem, Hunte has yet to earn a start and has only 7 receptions on the year. That is a major disappointment for the Knights, who have simply not been the team most expected this year.
OT Eric Fisher (SEA): Fisher quickly moved into the starting lineup in Seattle. His run blocking has been solid, but 6 sacks already has some worried that LT may be a lot to ask even for a top draft pick.
WR Robert Woods (LA): The USC star was expected to line up opposite his idol, Keyshawn, and form a 1-2 combo that would be hard to stop. With only 3 starts and 2 receptions so far this season, it can be said that already fans in LA are disillusioned with Woods. He has time to turn it around, but LA can be an unforgiving market, so he had better get to it.
NBC got themselves a beauty for Friday Night Lights as the two co-leaders of the Southeast Division clash in Charlotte. The winner of this one has the inside track and the ability to control their destiny moving forwards, so expect a major battle between the Fire and the Monarchs.
Saturday starts off with what may be New Orleans’s last stand. If they cannot defeat Birmingham at home in the Dome, well, they may just be sitting out the postseason. But, if the Breakers can upend the Stallions, it puts them within 1 game of the division leaders. There are a couple of really interesting 4pm games as well, with LA and St. Louis both sitting at 5-5, neither can afford a loss right now. Meanwhile Houston is struggling for their playoff life but have a big task ahead of them as they host Las Vegas. QB Matt Hasselbeck is considered a game time decision, and that could be the key to any Gambler hopes.
Denver is in a similar situation on Saturday Night, but a win over Texas means that we could have 3 teams in the Southwest all at 6-4 and chasing Arizona. They cannot all get Wild Cards (technically yes, but realistically no), so every division game between the Outlaws, Gold, and Gamblers is huge from now on. Then on Sunday we get a few seeming mismatches with Arizona (-14) @ Dallas, Chicago (-8) @ Seattle) and Philadelphia (-6) @ Nashville. Perhaps the most interesting game is a late afternoon tilt between the 5-5 Ohio Glory and the 7-3 Oakland Invaders. The Invaders have been very tough at home, but Ohio needs this win to stay alive in the Wild Card hunt and if they want any chance of catching the Machine.
Friday @ 8pm ATLANTA (6-4) @ CHARLOTTE (6-4) NBC
Saturday @ 12pm BIRMINGHAM (6-4) @ NEW ORLEANS (4-6) ABC
Saturday @ 12pm TAMPA BAY (4-6) @ JACKSONVILLE (2-8) FOX
Saturday @ 4pm LOS ANGELES (5-5) @ ST. LOUIS (5-5) ABC
Saturday @ 4pm LAS VEGAS (7-3) @ HOUSTON (5-5) FOX
Saturday @ 7pm NEW JERSEY (4-6) @ WASHINGTON (8-2) NBC
Saturday @ 9pm TEXAS (6-4) @ DENVER (5-5) ESPN/EFN
Sunday @ 12pm ORLANDO (4-6) @ MEMPHIS (3-7) ABC
Sunday @ 12pm ARIZONA (10-0) @ DALLAS (2-8) ABC
Sunday @ 12pm PITTSBURGH (3-7) @ BALTIMORE (5-5) FOX
Sunday @ 4pm CHICAGO (7-3) @ SEATTLE (3-7) ABC
Sunday @ 4pm MICHIGAN (2-8) @ PORTLAND (4-6) FOX
Sunday @ 4pm OHIO (5-5) @ OAKLAND (7-3) FOX
Sunday @ 8pm PHILADELPHIA (8-2) @ NASHVILLE (4-6) ESPN/EFN
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