A wild week that saw one of the week’s most important games for playoff position end in a tie, a tie that actually helped both teams qualify for the postseason. We also saw a huge win for the Stars as they held off Washington to claim not only the NE Division, but the top seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. By the week’s end we still had 4 playoff slots, all Wild Cards, still available, and 7 teams in competition for them. We also had our first coaching casualty of the season as, in a move that surprised no one, Jacksonville released Leslie Frazier from his duties with one game left. We will break down all the games, starting with a bizarre finish in Charlotte, and then take a look at what is at stake in a final week that may see a lot of backups getting action on the field.
The benefit of a tie was not known ahead of time, because for both the Breakers and the Monarchs, the result would only be helpful if Birmingham and Atlanta fell this week. For Charlotte, the concern was that Arizona, the hosts for Atlanta this week, would take the week off in preparation for the playoffs as the locked-in first seed. For New Orleans, the expectation was that Birmingham would easily defeat the Seattle Dragons, a 4-win club. So, both teams entered this game convinced that a win would be essential if they would hold onto their slim leads in their respective positions, and for 4 quarters the two clubs fought like teams on the fringe of playoff contention, insecure in their positions.
NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS 24 CHARLOTTE MONARCHS 24 OVERTIME
They say it is like kissing your sister, a tie that is. Well, this one might have been a bit racier than that, maybe a distant cousin, because the 24-24 tie between the Breakers and the Monarchs left both teams happier than a tie normally should. Why? Because both teams benefited from the tie to the tune of a playoff berth. For New Orleans the result, combined with a bad outing by Birmingham, clinched the Southern Division for the Breakers. For Charlotte, no worse than a Wild Card, but still in control for a possible Southeastern Division Title as they sit one half game ahead of Atlanta with 1 game to play.
For two teams who often rely on their defenses, both offensive squads fared well in the game. New Orleans put up 380 yards of offense, with 320 coming off the arm of Drew Brees, who would go 32 of 45 on the day. Charlotte fared even better, putting up 425 yards, with Fred Jackson and Shonn Greene combining for 169 rushing yards. And yet, despite all the offensive gains, this did come down to the defenses at the end, two tired but determined defenses holding the other team scoreless in the extra overtime period.
The game did not always look like it would end in a tie, certainly not when Charlotte took a 14-point lead with only 2:47 left to play, but New Orleans pulled off a miraculous comeback in the final 3 minutes to send the game to extra time and then held on as both clubs dealt with the heat and the exhaustion of a game played at full tilt.
It would take Charlotte nearly the full game to put together their 14-point lead, and less than 3 minutes to lose it. It began with a slow, tentative first quarter, one that saw only 1 scoring play, a 42-yard field goal by 2013 All-USFL kicker Brandon Coutu. Coutu would add a second kick, this time a chip shot 24-yarder early in the second and Charlotte had a tentative 6-point lead. That lead was cut in half when New Orleans put together their first scoring drive, capped by a 36-yard kick by rookie Caleb Sturgis.
At the half, 6-3 was the score, and it seemed that the offenses were not finding any traction, but that quickly turned around in the second half. New Orleans took the kickoff and put together their first truly solid drive of the game. After being bottled up in the first half (6 carries for only 13 yards), Forte found some room at the start of the second half, rushing for 22 yards on just this one drive. New Orleans also found room in the air, with Brees connecting with Early Doucet for 11 and then TE Coby Fleener for 18. The drive got a boost when DT Ryan Sims got called for unnecessary roughness on a failed 3rd and goal throw, after falling on top of Drew Brees. The penalty gave New Orleans a first and goal on the 1, and Mike Tolbert took it in to give the Breakers their first lead of the day at 10-6.
Charlotte responded with a drive of their own, but once again was slowed down by the Breakers’ red zone defense, forcing them to kick for a third time. The third quarter came to a close with the Breakers holding on to a slim 10-9 lead. With only 1 TD in the first three quarters, no one could have anticipated the explosion of offense in the final period.
Charlotte got the break they wanted early in the 4th, when a Brees pass was tipped at the line and picked off by CB Carlos Rogers. That play gave Charlotte a short field, and they took advantage of it when Brandon Wheedon hit scatback Taiwan Jones on a swing route. With the TE out in front, Jones juked and wove his way 20 yards for the score and suddenly Charlotte was back on top. After converting the 2-point PAT, the lead was 7, Charlotte on top 17-10.
The Breakers would drive the ball into Charlotte territory on the next possession, but a fourth and 2 produced a stellar defensive stop by the Monarchs and Charlotte took over at their own 36. The tackle for loss by Jerod Mayo stunned the Breakers and their pain was about to get worse as Charlotte held onto the ball for nearly 7 minutes before Shonn Greene finally dove over the goal line, giving the Monarchs a seemingly unchallengeable 14-point lead. Unfortunately for Charlotte, no one told Drew Brees it was too much to make up.
With Charlotte scoring at the 2:47 mark, New Orleans would need 2 touchdowns to tie the game and send it to overtime. Drew Brees took to the field with little expectation of success, but in only 5 plays and 90 seconds he had the Breakers in the endzone. Hitting receivers on the edges of the field, he was able to preserve 2 of the Breakers’ three timeouts. His TD pass to Brandon LaFell stopped the clock at 1:16, now with New Orleans down only 7.
The Breakers would need the onside kick and Sturgis, the rookie from Florida, would provide a perfect kick. It bounced twice, then took a huge hop, over the blockers and short of TE Luke Wilson, another rookie, set up as the short return man. The hop gave time for Donnie Avery to break off his block and scoop up the ball before Wilson could fall on it. New Orleans was in business with 1:10 left to play, 58 yards from tying the game.
Brees again went into action. He hit Coby Fleener over the middle for 18 on the first play from scrimmage, used a time out, and came back with a quick route to Santana Moss. Three plays later, and with only seconds left on the clock, he rewarded the man who had recovered the onside kick, Donnie Avery, by hitting the diminutive receiver with a perfect slant route. Breaking between the safeties and diving into the endzone, Avery gave New Orleans the score they needed. A stunned Charlotte crowd watched as Sturgis capped off the drive with the PAT that sent the game to overtime.
There would be no touchdowns in overtime, not even a field goal attempt, as once again the defenses, tired but determined, stifled every attempt by either team to get past midfield. The game ended with a deep bomb by Wheedon, picked off in the endzone as time ran out. Both teams left the field unsure what the tie meant. Birmingham would not play until the 4pm slot, so New Orleans did not know if they were Division Champ or only a half-game up on the Stallions. Atlanta would not play until the next day, so Charlotte fans did not know if they were a Wild Card team or still in the lead in the division with a week left to play. The tie was not the worst possible result for either team, but it certainly was not the best possible end either. Kissing your sister, or cousin, or maybe the neighbor’s daughter, we are not sure.
OAKLAND 49 LAS VEGAS 14
No mercy shown by the Pacific Champs as they demolish Las Vegas and eliminated the once 6-2 club from playoff contention. Everything was working for the Invaders, who will likely rest some starters next week despite their bye. Ryan Williams was the OPOTG with 89 yards rushing, 64 yards receiving and a touchdown. DE Cliff Avril also had a big game, moving into 2nd place in the league sack race with 2 on the day along with a forced fumble. Jake Plummer again started, and this time he made it 3 quarters, but again had to leave early.
BALTIMORE 41 PITTSBURGH 24
The Blitz left no doubt that if any team from the Northeast was going to earn a 3rd playoff spot for the division, it was going to be them. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 377 and 4 touchdowns as Baltimore torched the Mauler secondary all game. Brian Hartline was the big target on the day as the slot receiver caught 3 of 5 targets for 125 yards and 2 scores. The Blitz now control their own destiny, with a Week 16 win getting them a Wild Card berth.
BIRMINGHAM 8 SEATTLE 26
Despite putting up a nothingburger in Seattle, Birmingham can still get a playoff spot, with a little help. Seattle manhandled the Stallions, with Cam Newton held to only 160 yards passing and -8 on the ground. Seattle got TDs from C. J. Anderson and Dennis Pitta as they held Birmingham in check all game, a huge letdown for the Stallions, who were 6-point favorites on the road.
MICHIGAN 10 ST. LOUIS 17
The Skyhawks remain alive, and with a huge game in Week 16, they could eke their way back into the postseason. The offense was not as dynamic as Skyhawk fans would like, but with 2 scores from Eddie Lacy, St. Louis had just enough to take the game at home and keep their postseason dream of a repeat alive.
TAMPA BAY 17 ORLANDO 23
With six sacks of Daunte Culpepper, the Renegades made a statement and retained their playoff eligibility, though they will need a lot of help to make an unexpected postseason appearance. Russell Wilson had a good day against Tampa’s sup-par defense, throwing for 3 scores and 275 yards. Culpepper connected 5 times for 110 yards with Vincent Jackson but could not produce enough offense to avoid playoff elimination.
TEXAS 35 HOUSTON 26
The Outlaws may have clinched a playoff spot last week, but they were not ready to let off on the gas this week against their rival. The Outlaws not only got the win, but the double satisfaction of knocking Houston from playoff contention just one week after the Gamblers broke Arizona’s unbeaten streak. Joe Flacco threw for 3 scores and Arian Foster added a fourth as the Outlaws showed a great deal of offensive versatility, with Flacco connecting with 8 different receivers.
NASHVILLE 10 MEMPHIS 34
The Showboats have something to build on in 2014 as the second half of the season they have repeatedly shown some offensive firepower. Eli Manning toyed with 400 yards and threw 3 touchdowns as the Showboats manhandled their in-state rival.
PORTLAND 27 OHIO 38
Despite the fact that other results removed Ohio from the playoff hunt, they still came out on fire and proved fatal to Portland’s late playoff interests as well. Chris Weinke threw for 4 touchdowns and Isaiah Pead added 84 yards and a score on the ground as the Glory gave their fans a great sendoff and hopes for a better 2014.
NEW JERSEY 0 CHICAGO 33
Just an atrocious game for the Generals as Bobby Hoying completed only 14 of 45 passes and the General defense simply had no energy. Doug Martin rushed for 3 scores and Chicago turned a 16-0 halftime lead to a 33-0 victory with almost no opposition. This game was bad enough that even with last year’s playoff run, New Jersey could be looking to divest from Herm Edwards, because the club is clearly not playing hard for him.
ATLANTA 10 ARIZONA 23
To Atlanta’s dismay, Arizona came out angry and looking to get back on track after their Week 14 loss. They gave up more yards than they would like (342) to Atlanta but held the Fire to 10 points as they slowly built up a lead that the Fire could not match. Antonio Bryant had 99 yards receiving and Gronk added another 95 as the Wranglers tuned up for the playoffs. Atlanta can still get in with a win next week, and with some help, could even lock up the Southeast Division title.
DALLAS 21 LOS ANGELES 24
We will give this to Coach Sherman’s Roughnecks, they do not give up. Dallas again was a tough out, but again fell as LA got the win they needed to remain in position for a Wild Card. Touchdowns from Reggie Bush and rookie Robert Woods helped LA build a 24-14 lead and they held on in the 4th despite an 83-yard TD from Jake Locker to TE Robert Royal.
JACKSONVILLE 3 DENVER 31
The Gold left no doubt that they wanted to be a Wild Card club, and while they still have been unable to clinch the playoff spot, this impressive win over Jacksonville means that all they need is a win over St. Louis, or an LA loss next week, and they are in the postseason once again. Matt Leinart threw for 240 yards and 2 scores, while Lionel James and DeMarco Murray combined for 124 yards. As for Jacksonville, this season cannot end soon enough for the Bulls.
WASHINGTON 15 PHILADELPHIA 16
It was exactly the defensive slugfest we expected as these two battled it out for a full 60 minutes. Stevie Johnson returned to action for Philadelphia, catching 7 balls for 111 and a score, while Washington got 82 yards and a score from Deuce McCallister. Up by 3 late, Philadelphia gambled and got caught for a safety, turning the game into a 1-point affair, but in the end, the Stars defense held, and Washington was not able to get into position for a late field goal. Both clubs will be headed to the dance, with Washington hosting a Wild Card game as the number four seed, while Philadelphia locked up the one seed, a bye week, and home field throughout the playoffs with this divisional win.
Early Season Successes Collapse in Heat of Summer
It must seem like a different age, back in the early weeks of the season when both the Ohio Glory and the Las Vegas Thunder were the talk of the league. Ohio began the season 4-1 and looked like a real threat to take the Central Division. Las Vegas’s hot streak was even longer, a 6-2 start that had them atop the Pacific. Both clubs were feeling strong and garnering some big-time praise from us all, but then it all started falling apart. Las Vegas’s offense sputtered and the defense started getting tired. Ohio’s explosive start to the year started to fade as teams took Chris Weinke more seriously and defenses adapted to the Glory gameplan.
Welcome to Week 15, where both the Glory and the Thunder have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. Ohio has lost 7 of their last 9 games. They can finish the year at 8-8, which is better than had been predicted, but not where they expected it to be after their fast start. Las Vegas, after their 6-2 start, have lost 6 of their last 7. Even with the return of Jake Plummer they fell again this week. They too have a shot at finishing 8-8 with a win against Seattle in Week 16, but that is a huge letdown from the early success and the expectations for this team. So, what happened?
In Ohio’s case we can simply point to the rest of the league figuring them out. They shocked some folks early, and to be frank, their early schedule was pretty easy when you look back at it. Their 4 wins were against LA, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Michigan. Of that group, only the Express are in playoff contention. The Glory were on fire offensively in the first 6 weeks of the season, but after averaging nearly 33 points a game over that span, the defenses started figuring out that the passing game was all about Steve Smith. He still had an impressive, possibly an MVP candidate year, but once teams started to isolate him, the rest of the passing game fell pretty short. The offense could not keep up the pace, scoring only 14 against New Jersey and Chicago, and not topping 30 points the rest of the year.
For Las Vegas, it was a lack of offense all the way through the season’s second half, partially but not entirely because of issues with Jake Plummer’s health, but also because Marshawn Lynch never got on stride. He is well outside the leaders for the rushing title and that lack of run threat made the Thunder easy to handle. Lynch missed only 2 games this season but still is likely to fall somewhere short of 800 yards on the year, and that, coupled with inefficiency in the pass game, despite a very solid WR duo of Chad Johnson and T. J. Houshmandzadeh, led to Las Vegas averaging only 19.4 points per game, and only 11 points per game in their 6 losses over the season’s second half. The lack of offensive consistency also meant that the defense was on the field a lot, and as the summer got hotter (both in Las Vegas and elsewhere) the defense simply tired out.
Las Vegas finishes the season at home against the Seattle Dragons, Ohio hosts the division champion Chicago Machine, both now hoping to make lemonade out of a season that has gone from sweet to sour lemons over the second half. An 8-8 season is not the worst fate to befall a football club, but for two teams that started the season by building up hopes, it will certainly feel like a missed opportunity.
Jacksonville Fires Frazier
In a season that could see a very busy Black Monday, with several coaches on the hotseat, Jacksonville got a head start on the crowd, announcing this week that Leslie Frazier has been relieved of duties. After improving from 3-12-1 in 2011 to 6-10 last season, the expectation had been that Frazier had the Bulls headed in the right direction and ready to be a factor in the Southeastern Division. Now sitting at 3-12 with one game left and ranked near the bottom of the league in both yards for and yards against, with perhaps the league’s worst run game, the Bulls are wrapping up a season of disappointments, and ownership decided to drive that message home by releasing the head coach with 1 game left in the year.
Frazier had come to Jacksonville with a reputation as a defensive strategist, but the Bulls have been anything but stalwart on that side of the ball in his 4 years, averaging nearly 23 points per game allowed and well over 300 yards per game allowed since 2010. This year’s average of 347.8 yards allowed per game is the worst of the 4-year tenure and when paired with an offense that barely averages 2 touchdowns per game, it has produced a season of bad losses. This week’s 31-3 debacle in Denver was apparently the last straw for Fred Bullard and the ownership group. Frazier was relieved of duties on Monday and the Bulls will finish the year with OC Jimmie Johnson, a former TE in the league, will take over for what could be the shortest coaching stint in the USFL, a 1 game outing.
We don’t expect Frazier to be the lone casualty as the season wraps up, with a lot of teams questioning their coaches. Rumors are swirling that New Jersey is ready to cut Herm Edwards loose, that Jim Johnson’s long tenure with the Knights could be over, and that Dick LeBeau could also be out in Michigan. Add to that rough second half collapses in Las Vegas and Ohio, and frustration with Ron Rivera’s rollercoaster run in Pittsburgh, and this could be a very messy Black Monday indeed.
Arizona to Rest Starters Against Texas
With the top spot in the Southwest and the top seed in the West all wrapped up, the matchup between Arizona and Texas this week could be a bit more one-sided than if it had occurred a couple of weeks earlier. The Outlaws are still fighting to ensure that Denver does not overtake them and that they hold on to the 4 seed and a home playoff game, but Arizona has no reason to put their best squad out there and Coach Tomsula has already admitted that there will be a lot of players either held out or on limited snaps in the season finale.
Expect to see Nick Foles get the start at QB as David Carr gets a week to rest and recover from a long season. Larry Fitzgerald will also likely sit out, giving Kassim Osgood a rare opportunity to work with the first team. We are not sure if Gronkowski or RG Montrae Holland will play either. One player we know will be there on offense is Frank Gore. The workhorse back trails Doug Martin for the rushing title by fewer than 60 yards and has every intention of making a run at the title, potentially helped if Martin’s carries are limited in a meaningless game for Chicago in Week 16.
On Defense, we know Coach Tomsula does not want his squad to get rusty, but don’t be surprised if players like Kevin Hardy, Troy Polamalu, Lance Briggs, and Larry English don’t get a much lower snap count than usual, with rare appearances from players like Kapron Lewis-Moore (DE), Nathan Stupar (LB) and Matt Giordano (SS) getting some playing time as the game wraps up.
Arizona will certainly not be the only team resting players. We expect similar strategies from Philadelphia, Oakland, Chicago, and Washington, all teams whose playoff positions are locked in. Not so for others like New Orleans, Charlotte, or any of the clubs fighting for a Wild Card spot. They have reasons to want a Week 16 win, either to obtain more home field opportunities or to simply lock up a playoff spot, so still plenty of important games, but for the teams who have already taken care of business and locked themselves into a good position, a week to avoid injuries and give some young players a shot at regular season action.
One week left and here is what we know: There are 8 playoff spots locked up, or at least booked, and 4 Wild Cards yet to decide. We have 5 teams whose position in the postseason is also guaranteed, with no chance of rising or dropping in the seedings, but a lot of frantic tiebreakers and win/lose scenarios to contemplate among the others. Here is our breakdown of where things stand with one week of action left in the regular season.
Locked In: Five teams have their playoff positions locked in. In the West, Arizona is the 1 seed, Oakland the 2, and Chicago the 3. In the East, Philadelphia’s win over Washington gives them the division and the 1 seed. Washington is guaranteed the 4 seed as the best Wild Card team. So, those 5 teams can let up on the gas this week without any fear of shifting positions.
Playing for a Bye: The two other division leaders, New Orleans and Charlotte, still have something to play for. The Monarchs have only a ½ game lead over Atlanta, so they need a win to lock up the division. Winning this week would also guarantee them the 2 seed and a bye, thanks to a tiebreaker (conference record) over New Orleans. The Breakers have locked up the Southern Division, but they need a win and a Charlotte loss to leapfrog the Monarchs and claim the coveted 2 seed bye week.
Control Their Destiny: With 4 Wild Card spots still out there and 7 teams trying to lock them up, there are 5 teams currently in a position to control their own destiny. Texas already has a playoff berth in hand but need a win (or some help) to lock up the 4 seed and get a home playoff game. For Atlanta, Baltimore, Denver, and LA, the situation is even more black and white, win and you are in the playoffs, lose and, well, maybe not so fast. Each can punch their ticket with a win this week, or, with a loss could see themselves fall all the way out of the playoff picture as others step up.
Need Help: Three more clubs could, with a win and some help, jump into the postseason. In the West, St. Louis needs to beat Denver and get help from Charlotte. A win by the Monarchs in LA, and a win by the Skyhawks vs. Denver and St. Louis leaps into the Wild Card spot. For Birmingham and Orlando, their hopes lie with losses from either Atlanta or Baltimore, paired, of course with final week victories. Birmingham faces off against Memphis in their annual rivalry game, but they are at home, so a good chance to step up. Orlando is in a much tougher situation, having to travel to Washington to finish the year. Of course, the Federals could rest several starters, so even Orlando’s situation is not untenable. But they also need help from two unlikely sources. The Blitz are at home against Michigan, and the Fire are in Tampa Bay, so in both cases the two teams who currently hold playoff spots would need to lose to underdogs with losing records in order for Orlando or Birmingham to have a shot. With 4 teams in the mix, the tiebreakers can get pretty heady as every possible combination of 8-8 teams produces different results, but for now, let’s just say that wins by the ‘Gades and Stallions and losses by the Fire and/or Blitz and the final playoff spots could change hands over the course of the weekend.
Several injuries this week, but only a few with real playoff implications. Charlotte is in the postseason but may be without free safety Chris Crocker for the entire postseason run, after the safety suffered a fracture in his upper arm this week. For Washington, the concern is OT Vernon Carey, who would likely miss the first round Wild Card game but could come back if Washington advances to the Divisionals. Similarly, Denver’s Sione Pouha will miss this week’s game, and could be out of the Wild Card matchup as well. All of the other injuries are looking like 1-week affairs and should not impact the postseason, a good thing to say after seeing teams lose a key player just before the playoffs in past years.
OUT
QB Peyton Manning NSH Concussion
FS Chris Crocker CHA Arm (2-4 Weeks)
OT Vernon Carey WSH Hip (1-2 Weeks)
DT Sione Pouha DEN Wrist (1-2 Weeks)
G Derrick Dockery LV Abdomen
DOUBTFUL
DE Justin Smith OAK Shoulder
HB Robert Turbin SEA Concussion
FB Zach Line MEM Concussion
HB DeMarco Murray DEN Knee
QUESTIONABLE
LB Jonathan Goff TBY Neck
LB Jarret Johnson JAX Pinched nerve
OG Matt Slauson DEN Knee
Reviewing the Rookie Class of 2013
We are 15 weeks into the 16-week rookie season for many players around the league, a good time, before the playoff focus becomes all-consuming, for us to review just how the first year has gone for the top rookies around the league. We will look position by position at the players who were expected to make an impact and see just how their first year of pro ball has gone.
Quarterback
The Class of 2013 was not viewed as a big impact QB class, and that has largely panned out. Only 3 rookies have had the chance to start a single game, and only 1 seems to have captured the starting job. Portland’s Matt McGloin has stepped in ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick and appears to have done enough to go into the offseason as the presumptive starter for the Stags. In 6 starts he has thrown for 1,282 yards, 5 TDs and 7 picks, not a surprising ratio for a rookie signal caller. His 74.7 QB rating is nothing to write home about, but again, his poise, and the fact that he has helped lead a late season rally for the once moribund Stags has impressed.
Landry Jones got a short run as the starter in Dallas, but with only 493 yards in 3 games and a QB Rating of 47.4, Coach Sherman turned back to Jake Locker. We expect Jones to have a chance to compete in 2014, but we would also not be surprised if Dallas tried to find a more certain answer at the position. The third rookie with a QB Start was Jeff Tuel, who was never expected to see the field. The Charlotte QB only saw action because starter Jake Delhomme was lost for the season and backup Brandon Wheedon had to miss one game with a minor injury. In his one start Tuel fared pretty well, throwing for 254 yards and avoiding any turnovers. He is clearly set up as a backup to either Delhomme or Wheedon, but his spot on the roster seems secure.
Halfback
Here is where we expected some breakout performers and we have gotten them. Two backs from the Class of 2013 were well positioned as starters and both have come through. Eddie Lacy has stepped into Antowain Smith’s shoes and has acquitted himself very well, sitting among the Top 5 backs in the league with 1,175 yards in 15 games. Not far behind at all is Michigan’s LeVeon Bell, whose 1,166 yards has been a bright spot in a long season of growth and missteps in Detroit. Both look to have established themselves as bell cow backs for their teams and should continue to impress in their sophomore year.
Other backs who have gotten significant snaps and opportunities to make contributions include Atlanta’s Marcus Lattimore, who started the season on the field before NFL import Steven Jackson took over as the primary back. Despite somewhat spotty snap counts, Lattimore has racked up a solid 467 yards from scrimmage and proven he can be an asset in the passing game as well. In Philadelphia, injury to Steve Slaton gave Zac Stacy a chance to see more action, and while his 2.8 YPC average is not what we want to see, his 325 yards over his short starting gig were enough to keep Philly atop the NE Division. Finally, Knile Davis saw 6 starts, mostly in passing downs and saw action late in games to spell Darren McFadden, and showed he can be a solid weapon. He has scored 5 TDs over the first 15 weeks and racked up 468 rushing yards as well as being a solid option as a receiver.
Tight End
The crop of tight ends in the 2013 draft was seen as one of its strengths and so far, after only 1 season, that seems to be the case, as 4 rookies have seen a lot of action and a lot of targets. Leading the group, we find Nashville’s Tyler Eifert who started 14 of 15 games so far and has had a very productive year, catching 65 passes for 720 yards and 3 touchdowns. Peyton Manning used Eifert not only as a safety valve, but as a weapon to open up the middle of the field. In Philadelphia, the arrival of Travis Kelce meant that Matt Gutierrez could use more 2-TE sets and that helped the run game considerably. Kelce also proved to be a very valuable receiver, snatching 64 passes for 603 yards and 3 scores in his first 11 starts. The other two rookie tight ends wh have seen solid action are Zack Ertz in Oakland (36 receptions for 257 yards) and Luke Wilson in Charlotte (33 receptions for 352 yards). All in all a very good year for the often undervalued position.
Wide Out
While the 2013 WR class was a deep one, two players stood out in their first year of pro ball. Aaron Dobson became an immediate starter in Chicago, and that has paid off to the tune of 934 yards on 82 receptions. His 4 TDs are not exactly eye-popping, but his reliability as a possession receiver has been duly noted. On the West Coast, perhaps garnering a bit more press, Keenan Allen was so good so early that Oakland felt comfortable trading away veteran starter Greg Jennings mid-season. Allen is currently third among the rookie receivers with 73 receptions and 899 yards, but he has added 7 touchdowns to a very solid Oakland offense. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the rookie class of receivers is in Pittsburgh, where Tavon Austin was the big name signing, but it was little-known Adam Thielen who has had the biggest impact. While Austin has only 23 receptions, Thielen has racked up 66 for 965 yards and 7 touchdowns. Austin has 6 scores, which is impressive for his limited reception count, but Thielen has proven to be a dynamic player for the Maulers and is now the regular starter outside.
The rest of the class of 2013 is a bit of a work in progress, including Austin, but also Texas speedster Marquise Goodwin (14 receptions for 238 yards and 3 TDs, Dallas’s Tim Wright (32 receptions, 457 yards and 3 TDs) and LA’s Robert Woods (only 6 receptions for 65 yards). But we all know that very often a receiver may need 2-3 years before they break out so let’s not judge too soon.
Offensive Line
A good year for linemen as well, with tackle Eric Fisher and guard Chance Warmack leading the way. Among the rookie class we have 4 players who have started at least 10 games, including Warmack (ARZ) and Fisher (SEA) along with D. J. Fluker in Oakland and Kyle Long in Texas. All have played well, but Warmack is seen as the breakout player, leading the way for Frank Gore and helping Arizona become a juggernaut this year. Warmack leads all linemen, not just the rookies, with 94 pancake blocks this year, a nasty, nasty total. Fluker and Fisher also look good in this stat with 69 and 59 apiece, though Fisher has allowed 8 sacks (Warmack has allowed none), but a lot of that is on his QB Matt Flynn, who just holds the ball way too long. Other contributors this year include OT Lane Johnson in New Orleans and OG Jonathan Cooper in Charlotte.
Defensive End
Jacksonville does not have a lot to celebrate this year, but rookie Barkevious Mingo is certainly a bright spot. The LSU product is second among all rookie defenders with 9 sacks on the year, and that includes his first pro safety. So, who is first? No surprise, it is Dion Jordan. The Oregon product has racked up 10 sacks and 30 tackles with Portland, with a late run that has coincided with Portland’s playoff push. The third of the big-name rookie edge rushers, Datone Jones in Ohio, has been a significant disappointment, with no starts this year and only spot duty. He has only 2 tackles in that spot duty and has yet to record a sack.
Defensive Tackle
Discussion of the DT position in the class of 2013 begins, and basically ends, with Star Lotuleilei. The Utah product began the year as the Rookie of the Week with a huge game one. And while Dallas’s fortunes have not been great all season long, Lotuleilei has certainly been a bright spot. With one more game on the schedule, Star has 81 tackles already, proving to be the run-stuffer that everyone expected. The only other DT to make significant starts this year was Kawaan Short in Tampa Bay. The Bandits’ defense struggled for continuity all season long, and that is reflected in Short’s numbers, with only 23 tackles on the year.
Linebacker
Plenty of rotational spots for rookie linebackers this year, but a couple were able to do a bit more. Alec Ogletree worked his way into a pretty good LB group with 13 starts this year. He has 48 tackles and 2 sacks to his name with one week left in the regular season. In Chicago, Notre Dame product Manti Te’o has shrugged off his off-field embarrassment and has earned a starting job with the Machine’s solid defense. In 9 starts and some spot duty he has 69 tackles, 3 sacks and a forced fumble.
Others who have had some opportunities include Nico Johnson in Birmingham (20 tackles), Jonathan Bostic in Las Vegas (32 tackles) and Kiko Alonso in Portland (13 tackles).
Cornerback
A pretty solid group of corners in this past year’s draft, with 4 earning significant starts and several others seeing duty in nickel and dime formations. The four that have seen the most action include Orlando’s Dee Milliner, LA’s Jamar Taylor, Seattle’s Desmond Truffant, and Atlanta’s Darius Slay. Milliner, the Alabama product, has started all but 1 game this year and has contributed 49 tackles and 2 picks for the Renegades. Slay is next up with 9 starts to date, and though he has yet to make his first pick, he has contributed 33 tackles. Truffant has started 7 games, mostly in the season’s second half as he earned more and more snaps. He has 24 tackles and a sack but is still without an interception. Jamar Taylor in LA has started 6 games, and has proven to be an effective blitzer off the edge, with 2 sacks on the year. He also has 19 tackles.
Safety
At safety we have three players who started from day one, and while one of them, Houston’s highly touted Kenny Vacarro, has seen most of his season scuttled with injuries, the other two have shown some real promise. Chicago’s Shawn Williams has 51 tackles and 2 sacks in his 15 games, and was a solid player on a solid defense, one who will need to do more now that the Machine are without Brian Urlacher to help in the middle. New Jersey’s defense has not lived up to the hype this year, and while rookie Johnathan Cyprien has played consistently (53 tackles, 2 sacks), he has also made some pretty big mistakes, often leading to big plays for the opposing offense.
Kicker
We had three rookies win the job as their team’s kicker this year, Brett Maher in Nashville, Jason Myers in Chicago, and Caleb Sturgis in New Orleans. Of the three, Maher has struggled the most, missing on 10 of his 27 field goal attempts. He has been good from close range (34 of 35 on PATs) but has struggled at distance. Distance has not been a problem for Jason Myers, who hit a 57-yarder for Chicago and who is 4 of 7 from beyond 45. He has also been perfect on PAT’s hitting all 41 attempts. Caleb Sturgess has the highest points total of the three, having hit all 30 field goals and connecting on 25 of 30 field goals. With both Chicago and New Orleans headed to the playoffs, we will almost certainly see how Myers and Sturgis hold up with pressure kicks.
Several Coaches Anxiously Awaiting Black Monday
It is a nervous time around the league, particularly in the coaches’ suites of teams sitting well below expectations. We have already seen the first casualty of a subpar season, with Leslie Frazier being relieved of duties this week, but we do not anticipate he will be alone in that situation. Whether it is falling short of expectations, a slow decline from past heights, or a lack of growth in a team’s year to year performance, coaches tend to get the blame and often pay the price. As we look across the USFL, we see no fewer than 8 coaches who could be in big trouble this year. Here is our quick rundown of the teams where we could see a change at the top.
JACKSONVILLE: A no brainer, the change has already begun with the firing of Leslie Frazier and the appointment of a 1-game head coach. Guess they wanted a 1-2 week head start on the field.
NEW JERSEY: Yes, the Generals looked like a playoff contender after a strong 2012 campaign, and yes, they did lose Sam Bradford to injury in Week 2, but we still expected a lot more out of this team. Their inability to compensate for Bradford’s absence, and what could be a season that ends with either the number 1 or number 2 draft pick could very well be enough to show that Herm Edwards is not the reason the team made the playoffs last year.
MICHIGAN: Dick LeBeau has done a lot for the Panthers over his long tenure, but in a league that is all about “What have you done for me lately? another losing season and a rough start to Kirk Cousins as the starter could be enough to turn the tide against LeBeau in Michigan.
PITTSBURGH: IT seems like we say the same thing about the Maulers every year, that they are better than their record, that they play hard, but they just don’t seem to be able to get over the hump, and after 8 seasons of saying the same thing, can we really feel confident that management will give Ron Rivera a 9th chance to prove he can put it all together?
MEMPHIS: Brad Childress is only in his 2nd year with the Showboats, and they have shown some signs of offensive capability with Eli Manning in the fold. Is that enough to give Childress a third year? A lot could depend on whether or not the players support their coach and whether they stand united in defending him to ownership.
NASHVILLE: Look, you don’t stay in the same position with the same team for as long as Jim Johnson has been with the Knights without a lot of good, but at the end of the day, this is a club that has not won a title under Johnson, and they appear to be flailing right now. Even bringing in Peyton Manning has not helped. Nashville could finish last in the division, something that seemed unthinkable only a couple of seasons ago. If they do, we expect Johnson to either step down or be told to step away.
LAS VEGAS: You cannot drop from 6-2 to a possible 7-9 final record (or 8-8 even) without taking a lot of heat. June Jones is taking a lot of heat right now. He is supposed to be an offensive guru, but the offense has been much worse than expected, and without Plummer, it has been a disaster. Marshawn Lynch is not being used properly. They have two outstanding receivers but are not getting them the ball. It’s a mess, and with the collapse they have had, whoever ends up buying into the Thunder will almost certainly want to go a new direction.
PORTLAND: We may be stretching on this one. The Stags had a good run over the season’s second half, and fans seem to like what they are seeing from Matt McGloin, so there is some optimism that Marty Mornhinweg is getting somewhere with this team. Honestly, he is likely safe, but perhaps the GM is the man who gets the most criticism, because Portland is developing a reputation as a team with a weak roster that tries really hard. Imagine if they had a top 10 roster? So, maybe Mornhinweg gets the chance, with a new man at the helm of the personnel acquisition side of the house.
Just Who is the MVP This Year?
Honestly, your guess is as good as ours. Practically every year this comes down to a battle of the top QBs in the league, but this year the teams with the best records, Arizona and Philadelphia, don’t have gaudy numbers out of their QB positions. Sure, David Carr is third in QB rating, but he is not even close to the leaders in yardage or touchdowns, so the MVP numbers are just not there. Gutierrez has played well, but his numbers don’t even place him in the top 5 in most categories, and his completion rate has taken a serious dip this year. The problem here is that the QB who is leading the league in both yardage and TDs is on a losing team, Tampa’s Daunte Culpepper. Yes, the blame for that is squarely on the Bandit defense, which is atrocious, but we just don’t see how you can give the MVP to a QB who has not led his team to the playoffs.
So, who is left? Early in the season we pointed at WR Steve Smith, and his numbers have certainly held up over the full year. He is on pace for a 1,500 yard, 120 catch season, both of which are outstanding numbers, the kind of numbers that are likely to garner him the Offensive Player of the Year title, but again, Ohio is not going to the postseason, and despite Smith’s numbers, he has not led the team to victories, not enough of them anyway.
The frontrunner may well be Arizona HB Frank Gore. Gore currently trails Doug Martin for the rushing title, and could cross 1,500 yards on the season. He is beloved by league officials and fans across the country for his work ethic and lunchpail attitude. He is unselfish and willing to do everything from ugly inside runs to pass blocking. Oh, and he plays for a team that may finish the year with only 1 loss and is the prohibitive favorite to represent the West in the Summer Bowl. Those are going to be tough numbers and facts to ignore. In a year where the best team and the best QB don’t align, we could very well see some love for the run game, and for one running back in particular.
As for the other awards, we believe Jim Tomsula has Coach of the Year all wrapped up. Offensive Player of the Year is going to be between Smith and Gore, maybe Martin if Gore wins MVP. Defensive player of the year is a tougher call, since the sack leader (Campbell) and the tackle leader (Vrabel) are both on teams that are not among the elite. We could see it go to James Farrior (currently third in tackles) just as a form of lifetime achievement award. As for Rookie of the Year, early on it seemed like Keenan Allen would have it, but as the season has progressed, we have been more and more impressed by Eddie Lacy in St. Louis and WR Adam Thielen in Pittsburgh. Could be a close vote.
No need to gild the lily on this one. There are some games that have a lot of meaning in the season’s final week and some that have very little (outside of some contract incentives and players trying to impress before free agency). While the league has moved to a Saturday/Sunday schedule as they always do, to try to avoid teams scoreboard watching and altering their play based on earlier results, but the fact is that there are a handful of games we are keeping our eyes on, and quite a few where only diehard fans will be focused. Here is the breakdown of the 2-day schedule, with the playoff-impacting potential of each cited.
Saturday @ 12pm
Pittsburgh (6-9) @ New Jersey (4-11) ABC Regional
No playoff scenarios. No Sam Bradford. Just a chance for Adam Thielen to make his case for ROTY against a pretty shaky defense.
Memphis (5-10) @ Birmingham (7-8) ABC Regional
Birmingham needs to win and have either Atlanta or Baltimore to lose. Not out of the realm of the possible at all. Besides it’s a nasty rivalry game so it will be fun to watch and Memphis will be motivated to go out with a win over the hated Stallions.
Orlando (7-8) @ Washington (10-5) NBC
Orlando needs to win and have 2 of 3 (Atlanta, Baltimore, Birmingham) lose. That may be a lot to ask, especially playing the Federals in RFK, but we do expect Washington to rest several players. Deuce McCallister is unlikely to sit this out simply because he still sees a path to the rushing title. Will Coach Peyton let him run?
Nashville (5-10) @ New Orleans (8-6-1) FOX
If New Orleans wins and Charlotte loses, the Breakers get the 2 seed and the bye. While it is nice to have a Manning return to New Orleans, we expect a very focused Breaker squad to make it a bittersweet return for Archie’s son.
Saturday @ 4pm
Philadelphia (12-3) @ Dallas (3-12) FOX
No playoff scenarios. Philadelphia will rest many starters, so Dallas, who has been playing hard in defeat after defeat may well get the W here. The only drama is if Dallas fans will hate on Philadelphia just out of habit from the NFL rivalry.
Atlanta (8-7) @ Tampa Bay (6-9) ABC
Atlanta is in the playoffs with a win. Wins the Southeast if Charlotte also loses. A lot to play for if you are the Fire. Not much to motivate Tampa Bay. We are not even sure if Daunte Culpepper will suit up for this one, so we foresee a Fire win.
Charlotte (8-6-1) @ Los Angeles (8-7) ESPN/EFN
Los Angeles is in with a win or a loss by St. Louis. Charlotte wins division and 2nd seed with bye if they win. A loss and an Atlanta win makes Charlotte a wild Card. This is what we want to see in Week 16, two teams with playoff hopes on the line facing off. Real consequences for each in this game, even if Charlotte is already in and LA does have a path to get in even with a loss. Both will be feeling pressure to pull this one out, which is what we love.
Sunday @ 12pm
Michigan (5-10) @ Baltimore (8-7) FOX Regional
Baltimore is in the playoffs as a Wild Card with a win. The Blitz control their own destiny. Win and they are in. That seems like it should motivate them into a good game against a Michigan team that is only playing for pride.
Houston (7-8) @ Jacksonville (3-12) FOX Regional
No playoff scenarios. The Gamblers were deflated by their elimination last week, after knocking off Arizona, they had a shot, but could not get the W they needed against Texas. Expect both teams to essentially play it safe, avoid injuries and take a look at some younger backups.
Chicago (10-5) @ Ohio (7-8) ABC
No playoff scenarios. We don’t think we will see much of Brady Quinn, though with the rushing title on the line, the Machine do want to help Doug Martin have a good game. Expect the defense to rest several starters as well, with a Wild Card game in Chicago next week already locked in, this will be a game where injury is the true opponent.
Sunday @ 4pm
Arizona (14-1) @ Texas (10-5) ABC
Texas is the 4 seed with a win and will host a Wild Card game. Arizona is going to rest many of their best defenders, so don’t overreact if the Outlaws take the W. They will not see an Arizona team at its best, though we do expect Frank Gore to give it his all to win the rushing title and maybe MVP at the same time.
St. Louis (8-7) @ Denver (9-6) ESPN/EFN
St. Louis needs to win and have LA lose to earn a Wild Card slot. Denver locks up a Wild Card with a win or an LA loss. Hard to believe that the Skyhawks could be out of the playoffs, but Denver is not going to rest in this one. Both teams’ best chance at making the postseason requires a win.
Seattle (5-10) @ Las Vegas (7-8) FOX
No playoff scenarios. How hard will the Thunder play to reach .500 and if they flop again, will that be the end for Head Coach June Jones?
Portland (7-8) @ Oakland (12-3) NBC
No playoff scenarios. Oakland will rest Harrington, Williams, and many other veteran starters. Portland was hoping they would be in the mix this week, but their conference record disqualified them after Week 15, so they are likely only looking to give McGloin more snaps as they prepare for 2014.