A good week for the winless as Nashville, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis all notch a win at the ¼ mark, leaving no teams without at least 1 win after four weeks. We do still have 3 unbeaten clubs as Philadelphia joins surprise 4-0 squads from Arizona and Birmingham atop the standings and the power rankings. The Stallions sit atop a division where their 4-0 record gives them a 3-game advantage over all three of their rivals, a huge advantage as we move into the 2nd quarter. Las Vegas fell this week, evening them up with Oakland atop the Pacific, while Ohio and Charlotte now top the Central and Southeast Divisions. We will review each club at the ¼ mark, look at who might want to make some changes, and, of course, recap all the action and our first midseason trade as well, with New Jersey hoping to expand their options at QB as they put Bradford on IR. It’s all right here, so let’s get started with our game of the week, the surprising Ohio Glory moving to 3-1 with a win over a former division rival.
OHIO GLORY 29 PITTSBURGH MAULERS 26
The Maulers and Glory were a pretty decent regional rivalry when both lived in the Central Division, but even with Pittsburgh being shunted back to the NE Division with Boston’s relocation, these two still find ways to dislike each other. The two former division foes faced off in the Steel City this week and gave us one of the week’s best games, even if it was only available regionally on ABC on Sunday.
With Andy Dalton still nursing a pinched nerve in his throwing arm (he is questionable again for Week 5), it was Quincy Carter again getting the start as he faced off against one of the stories of the season, the resurgent Chris Weinke at QB in Ohio. Weinke won the starting position over Vince Young this preseason and has turned that opportunity into a pretty solid start and a growing fanbase in Columbus.
In this game, both QBs would play well, though Carter’s numbers earned him some POTW recognition, with 387 yards passing on 27 of 38, and with 3 TDs. Weinke’s numbers were more modest, 25 of 31 for 251, but he too threw for 3 scores and, as he has done all season, he managed the game, the clock, and the emotions of his team to help them pull out the 3-point win in the end.
Ohio started the game very much in command, building an opening 14-0 lead thanks to early TD passes from Weinke to both Steve Smith and Zach Miller. In the 2nd, Pittsburgh finally started to put some drives together and would score on all 3 possessions. By the half the score was Ohio 17-12 and we had a game on our hands. Both passing games were working well, but while Ohio’s combo of Isaiah Pead and Rashad Jennings were well on their way to the combined 130 yards they would earn, Pittsburgh was having no luck with the combo of Brown and Watson, with the two combining for only 17 yards in the first half (they would finish with only 14 carries for 34 yards for the game.) it would be on the passing game of each team to keep the offenses moving.
That passing game gave Pittsburgh their first lead early in the 3rd, when Quincy Carter found Jimmie Graham on a seam route up the middle. The 25-yard pass was only one of 7 passes over 20 yards that Carter would have against an Ohio defense which continued to crowd the line to limit the run. The Maulers took the lead at the 13-minute mark, and it would hold for most of the third, but late in the quarter, Weinke would again find his new best friend and favorite target, former Philly Star, Steve Smith. Smith brought in his 2nd TD of the day and once again it was Ohio on top.
The Glory would add 2 field goals by the midpoint of the 4th quarter and with a 29-18 lead felt pretty good about their position. But that mood quickly soured when Pittsburgh put together a lightning quick scoring drive of only 3 plays, capped with a 26-yard strike from Carter to Victor Cruz. The quick score pulled the Maulers within 3 and with over 4 minutes still on the clock, it put pressure on Ohio to hold on late.
The Maulers needed to hold Ohio and get the ball back to have a chance at the game winner or a game tying field goal. On Ohio’s first set of downs it took them only 2 running plays from Pead to get a first down, a 6-yarder followed by a 5-yard off-tackle run. But, with time still available, the key would be the second set of downs. Pittsburgh held Pead to only 1 yard on first down, a good start. On second down they pressured Weinke, forcing a scramble and bringing the QB down behind the line, but a flag on the play for a defensive hold not only gave Ohio 5 yards but another first down. Pittsburgh would have to start again.
They did well on first down again, this time stuffing Jennings for no gain. They used their 2nd timeout to stop the clock. Ohio would try the run again on 2nd down, this time handing the ball to FB Mike Karney. His lone run of the game again produced no yards, leaving the Glory with a 3rd and 10. After using their last time out, Pittsburgh new that if they held Ohio on third down, they would get the ball back with no less than 1:33 left in the game, plenty of time to get at least the game-tying field goal.
It would come down to a 3rd and 10 play from the Ohio 41. Weinke lined up in the shotgun, Smith, Walker and TE Zach Miller on his left, Benn on his right and Jennings by his side. Pittsburght opted to pressure, bringing Donnie Spragan on a blitz, but the pressure meant that there was a gap in the zone, right in the center-right of the field. It was a short gap, about 5 yards downfield, but it was perfectly placed for Weinke to find Javon Walker on a crossing route. The pass was short of the first down, but when Walker put a move on safety Robert Sands, he was able to gain 12, pulled down just past the line. But, whether by 20 yards or just 2, it was enough to give Ohio 4 more downs, and more than enough for 3 kneel downs to end the game.
Ohio would move to 3-1 and take first place in the Central Division. Pittsburgh would drop to 1-3 and join Baltimore in the NE Division basement as the 4th week concluded. Two former and current rivals who seem to be headed in different directions.
NEW ORLEANS 29 BIRMINGHAM 39
A nice offensive showcase as Cam Newton threw for 3 scores and rushed for another to help the Stallions keep their record perfect at 4-0. Drew Brees also had a good day, throwing for 3 scores, while Matt Forte topped 80 yards in the game, but it was Newton keeping plays alive, scrambling for first downs, and finding Randy Moss for 118 yards and 2 scores that gave the Stallions the win and pushed them to a stunning 3-game lead in the division after only 4 games played.
PHILADELPHIA 16 BALTIMORE 3
An unseasonably hot day in the Charm City produced a game defined by defense as neither club could do much on offense. Philadelphia got the game’s lone TD on a pass from Gutierrez to his rookie TE Travis Kelce. Beyond that it was all the two offenses could do to get into field goal range. Neither were consistent on 3rd down, combining for a 6 of 24 conversion ratio (25%). While Steve Slaton ended the game with a very solid 128 on the ground, most of that came on 2 runs, both of which led to Philly field goals. Stars DE Anthony Hargrove was the game’s MVP with 2 tackles, and a sack of Ben Roethlisberger that produced a safety, the game’s first score.
ATLANTA 19 NASHVILLE 26
The Knights earned their first win thanks to a surprisingly successful run game, with Ray Rice gaining 84 yards while Montario Hardesty added another 71. The run game made life easier for Peyton Manning, who used play action to throw for 243 and 2 scores. Kyle Orton did not have that advantage as newly-activated NFL transfer Steven Jackson struggled to find holes, finishing with only 2 yards rushing. That lack of a run game left Orton exposed, and Nashville garnered 5 sacks on the day as they outlasted the Fire to move to 1-3.
LOS ANGELES 41 PORTLAND 16
A major shift in offensive strategy led to a blowout win for the Express as Coach Reid shifted away from the spread sets and put into place for Mark Sanchez an offense that looked very much like the old Bill Walsh West Coast offense. Sanchez responded with 4 TD passes, all to Keyshawn Johnson in the brash receivers most dominant game in years. Portland seemed flabbergasted by the new offensive strategy of the Express, and when Ryan Fitzpatrick went out early in the game, the Stag offense could not keep pace, with rookie Mark McGloin throwing 2 picks.
HOUSTON 17 SEATTLE 24
Seattle kept Byron Leftwich’s status secret until gametime, but the veteran did take the field and helped lead the Dragons to a very solid home win over a good Houston squad. Leftwich, who contributed 260 yards and 3 scores, was helped by HB Cadillac Williams’s 88 yards rushing, and by a defense that forced 3 turnovers, two of them in the red zone to snuff promising Houston drives. Both clubs now enter the 2nd quarter of the season at 2-2.
CHICAGO 30 MICHIGAN 20
The Machine got the edge in this important Central Division rivalry as they built a 17-0 lead on the road, quieting an initially rambunctious Panther crowd at Ford Field. A Ben Tate TD run and a Quinn to Floyd TD pass helped Chicago forget a horrible Week 3 pick-fest by Quinn. The Chicago QB responded to his bad week by going 21 of 29, managing the game and allowing Doug Martin to do his part, rushing for 115 yards. Kirk Cousins had 3 TD passes for Michigan as they abandoned the run early on, but it was not enough as Chicago moves to 2-2 and the Panthers fall to 1-3.
LAS VEGAS 10 OAKLAND 23
A huge game in the Pacific Division and the Invaders were ready for it. The pressure on Jake Plummer was intense, with the Invaders scoring 9 sacks on the day. While Plummer still managed to play well (20 of 28 for 271 yards), the sacks caused 3 drives to crash and burn, enough for Oakland to build a 20-3 lead after 3 quarters. The Invader offense, while not explosive, was productive, with Ryan Williams grinding out 86 yards on 23 carries, and Joey Harrington finding Williams for a TD on a nicely timed screen pass. The win gives Oakland the tie-breaker as both sit atop the division at 3-1.
WASHINGTON 23 NEW JERSEY 7
Another day of struggles for Bryan Hoyer and the Generals offense as Washington just stymied them at every turn. It was 23-0 before the Generals got their lone score in a game that saw some boo birds come out in MetLife Stadium. It may be these boo birds, as well as the lackluster performance by the offense that convinced the Generals to make a trade after only 4 weeks to bring in another QB option (See the story below).
ARIZONA 24 ORLANDO 6
We know it seems like we are beating a dead horse, but man, that Arizona defense is scary. They held Orlando to only 134 total yards, including a pathetic 31 yards rushing. They even ran Russell Wilson out of the game as it was Chad Henne who came out in the second half. Knowshon Moreno was held to only 2.1 yards per carry as Arizona’s d-line, reinforced with their NFL import Glenn Dorsey, was dominant. On offense, Frank Gore scored for the Wranglers but also got some rest as his 15 carries was split with 19 for backup Stephen Ridley. A good sign for Gore’s long term health.
CHARLOTTE 24 MEMPHIS 17
The Monarchs struggled with Darren McFadden, an old foe from his Atlanta days, but still managed to claw out the road win in Memphis to move to 3-1. McFadden averaged 7.2 yards per carry on his way to 101 on the day and 2 TDs, but Charlotte countered with TDs from Taiwan Jones and Dereck Mason. An early injury to Fred Jackson may have derailed the Monarch offense just enough for Memphis to keep it close, but in the end, the Mason TD from Delhomme was the game winner.
ST. LOUIS 24 DALLAS 21
Dallas may have dropped to 2-2 with a home loss to the defending champs, but there is no doubting that the fans in Big D were at the top of their game. Over 55,000 showed up at the Cotton Bowl to root on the Renegades. Unfortunately, what they saw was a determined St. Louis squad rack up a 24-3 lead on 3 rushing TDs, one each for Eddie Lacy (93 yards on the day), William Bethea, and James Ridley, as St. Louis shifted gears with John David Booty at QB. Booty managed the game well, completing 16 of 28 for 201 yards, mostly short routes to Jacobs, TE Jeramy Stevens, and Santana Moss, but it was effective and St. Louis gets their first win of the campaign.
DENVER 13 TEXAS 37
The Outlaws move their record to 3-1 with an impressive division win over the Gold. Arian Foster rushed for 111 and a score, while Joe Flacco tossed TDs to three different receivers on the day as the Outlaws simply overmatched the Denver defense. They also controlled the clock, racking up 38 minutes to Denver’s 22. The win keeps them only 1 game behind the unbeaten Wranglers.
JACKSONVILLE 13 TAMPA BAY 20
The Sunday Night weekly finale saw the Bandits ensure that no winless teams remained in the league as they edged the Bulls thanks to another strong game from Vincent Jackson and a much better defensive showing. Tampa got 2 picks of Tim Tebow, including one that put the ball on the Bulls’ 5-yard line and led to the game’s first TD. While Jacksonville was able to run against Tampa’s 2-deep zones, with Miller and Spiller combining for 141 yards, the zones frustrated the passing game and forced Tebow to hold the ball far too long. Both clubs now sit at 1-3 after 4 weeks.
“Finally”: Bandits, Skyhawks, and Knights all get 1st win in Week 4
A good week for the winless and for the league that wants to see more parity, particularly when their reigning champion is among the 0-3 squads entering the week. All three winless clubs, all of whom were expected to compete for their divisions, found themselves on the winning side this week. So, what went right? Well, for St. Louis it was a necessity. With Josh Freeman out on the injured list, they had to recalibrate with John David Booty under center. They did, and the recalibration left Dallas unprepared for what they would face. What they got was a 3-headed run game and a lot of crossing patterns. That was enough to help St. Louis pull out the 3-point win.
For Tampa Bay it was making Jacksonville one dimensional and forcing Tim Tebow to throw into complex zones. The Bandits did not blitz nearly as much as in past games, allowing Tebow time, but very little space to throw, and that proved effective against the 2012 leader in Interceptions thrown. Finally, for Nashville it was the run game that finally came to life as they split carries between Ray Rice and Montario Hardesty. After several years in both New Jersey and LA, it may finally be appropriate to say that Rice is just not a bell cow back, that he does better in smaller doses, and that is what Nashville did against the Dallas Roughnecks.
So, can any of these three turn their week starts into playoff run? We know enough about the USFL to say “yes” to that question, but the answer is different for each. Both Tampa Bay and St. Louis find themselves 2 games behind the division leaders (Charlotte & Ohio respectively), while Nashville has an even tougher path, with Birmingham sitting at 4-0 and looking very much like a club on a mission. Any one of these three teams could turn things around in quarter two and get hot, and we expect that St. Louis might be the one that is in the best position to get back into the mix, as the Central is generally considered a weaker overall division, but all three need to continue to mix things up and not rely on what worked in 2012, because it seems that they are at their best when the opposition cannot effectively plan for what they will see each week.
Oakland Topples Las Vegas to Assume 1st Place
We had a feeling that the Pacific might come down to these two clubs, though Seattle and LA also seem to be finding themselves with recent success. But when the two faced off at the Coliseum in Oakland, we knew this was a battle for first place between an undefeated Thunder squad and a very solid Invader club. What we got was a well-played competitive game, and Thunder fans will certainly point to Marshawn Lynch’s absence as the factor that held them back. But what is apparent about these two rivals is that both have solid defenses that can cause all kinds of mayhem for the opposition and offenses which are diverse enough to beat you in a variety of ways, especially once Lynch comes back on the field.
Jake Plummer is putting up potential MVP numbers (see article below) while the Invaders have been much more successful with finding ways to balance Ryan Williams’ carries with effective play action and mid-range passes to Greg Jennings and rookie T-draft star Keenan Allen. Allen has proven to be the deep threat Oakland needed (60 yards on only 2 receptions this week), while Jennings and the tight ends (Joel Dreesen and another rookie, Zach Ertz) are showing that even in a tight 2-TE formation, the Invaders can pass the ball effectively.
The two clubs will face off again in Week 15 and that game should be a major showcase as the two are almost certainly going to be battling for their playoff lives at that point. We cannot wait to see that game and these two very good, very bitter rivals.
Very Early MVP Candidates
We mentioned that Jake Plummer has been putting up some MVP numbers, and with the current lead in both passing yards (1,162) and rating (125.6) we have to consider the veteran Thunder QB one of the frontrunners, but it is way to early and way to close to say he has it locked up. So, who might be competing with the veteran QB?
How about Cam Newton, the leader of the unbeaten Stallions? While Cam Newton’s numbers are not as flashy (he is only 12th in yardage), but he is leading the league with 10 passing TDs and he has his 4-0 Birmingham club looking very much like the rising club of the season. If Newton can continue dominating the Southern Division and if Birmingham can clinch and clinch early, there will be a lot of votes headed his way.
We know that QB’s usually have the advantage for the MVP vote, but we cannot leave Frank Gore out of the mix in this year’s vote. Sure, after 4 weeks he is only 5th in the league with 363 yards, but that is because the Wranglers gave him a breather this week, cutting his usual carry total in half. He leads the league with 98 touches, 8 more than even annual workhorse Deuce McCallister. He is helping Arizona grind out games, burning time off the clock, and that is one of the reasons their defense is staying fresh and just shutting down the opposition.
Finally, we wanted to give a nod to Ohio receiver Steve Smith, even if his odds may not be great to be a finalist for MVP. Smith is the league leader with 33 catches, but he has done that with only 44 targets, an incredibly efficient 75% completion rate. He is also among the leaders in the league with 5 TD receptions and with 385 yards in 4 games. His resurgence with his new QB Chris Weinke has been a huge factor in Ohio jumping out to a 3-1 start. The Glory boast the league’s best offense in both points and yardage, averaging an even 400 yards per game, an a huge factor in that is Smith’s presence. He is not doing it alone, as TE Zach Miller and slot receiver Javon Walker are also looking solid, but Smith is clearly a leader for this squad, not just in word (and he is known for his talk), but in deed.
Generals Cut a Deal for a QB
With two straight troubling performances from Bryan Hoyer and two straight sub-10-point games, the Generals felt that something had to be done. Rumors had them reaching out to Ohio to ask about Vince Young, but they apparently found greener territory in Charlotte, where the Monarchs had 4 QBs under contract. New Jersey inquired both about backup Brandon Wheedon, who, as you will recall, led Charlotte to the Summer Bowl with two straight upset playoff victories in the Eastern Conference playoffs last year, and former NFL QB Charlie Whitehurst.
As you might expect, with Jake Delhomme turning 37 this year, the Monarchs were keen on keeping Wheedon, the 2nd year QB out of Mizzou, under contract and available should Delhomme decide to hang up the helmet. They were more flexible on Whitehurst, who was sitting third on their depth chart with Jeff Tuel limited to the practice squad. New Jersey felt that they knew enough about Whitehurst’s game from his time in the NFL, and it matched well with what they hoped to do on offense now that Sam Bradford was placed on IR. He would also come relatively cheap.
New Jersey agreed to send their 5th round pick both this upcoming offseason and in 2015 to the Monarchs in exchange for Whitehurst. Charlotte, with Tuel already available to them, also felt that this was a good deal. So, New Jersey will get the former Clemson QB who played 3 years with the NFL Chargers and Charlotte will have some picks to play with and a clear protégé for Delhomme in Brandon Wheedon.
Whitehurst arrived in East Rutherford on Wednesday and is expected to be #3 on the depth chart this week, behind Hoyer and veteran Jeff Blake, but you should expect that if Hoyer struggles again in their Week 5 matchup against Nashville, that it very well could be the former Monarch at the helm in Week 6.
Fortunately for the USFL’s 28 clubs, we saw no season-ending and very few month-long injuries this week, but that does not mean there are not issues. While neither of their injuries are serious, both Chad Johnson and T. J. Houshmandzadeh could be out this week for Las Vegas, leaving them quite a bit shorthanded at the position. Here are all the new additions to the injury list after Week 4:
OUT
CB Carlos Rogers CHA Hernia 4-6 Weeks
LB Brian Cushing PIT Quad 2-4 Weeks
QB Landry Jones DAL Thigh 1-2 Weeks
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick POR Eye 1-2 Weeks
DT Luis Castillo TEX Shoulder 1-2 Weeks
DE Antonio Smith MEM Hip 1-2 Weeks
HB Mike Tolbert NOR Groin 1-2 Weeks
TE Vernon Davis HOU Hip 1-2 Weeks
DOUBTFUL
FS Ed Reed WSH Foot
CB Philip Buchanon TBY Concussion
SS Terrance Holt TEX Shoulder
WR Dwayne Bowe ORL Thigh
WR T. J. Housmandzadeh LV Jaw
QUESTIONABLE
DE Aaron Kampman NJ Hip
HB Lorenzo Booker JAX Finger
WR Deion Branch WSH Concussion
OT Erik Pears LA Concussion
LB Karlos Dansby ARZ Abdomen
WR Chad Johnson LV Hamstring
CB Nate Clements NJ Neck
QB Jake Plummer LV Elbow
First Quarter Feel For All 28 Clubs
Four games down, twelve to go. Plenty of time to right the ship, or to drop off and fall closer to the pack. So, how do all 28 clubs stack up after their first four games. Who is outpacing expectations, who has had a rough start, and what can each team do to improve in Q2? Here is our look at all 28 clubs with our best thoughts on what might be ahead.
ARIZONA (4-0)
Sitting at 4-0 and leading the league in all 4, yes, all 4 major defensive categories (Points, Yardage, Passing Yards, and Rush Yards) has given the Wranglers a storybook start. Yes, they would like to their offense to be more than just Frank Gore rushing for 3.2 yards, but if they can keep holding teams to 5 points a game, a truly staggering number not seen since the 2002 Baltimore Ravens in the NFL, well, they could well be on their way to a division title and a very deep playoff run.
ATLANTA (1-3)
This is not the start the Fire wanted, and Steven Jackson’s opening week 2-yard effort is not making anyone feel good, but if Jackson can get his legs under him, there is still potential here for the Fire. They need to improve on a 26th ranked scoring offense, and that may well be up to Kyle Orton. The passing game has been more anemic than we expected, and that has led to far too many 3-and-outs.
BALTIMORE (1-3)
We had a feeling the season would start off rough, with Philly on the schedule twice in 4 weeks and the Knights as well. Baltimore dropped both games to the Stars, and they have struggled on offense, not scoring over 16 points in any game this year. Coach Caldwell has installed a new offense and it is taking time to find itself. The Blitz need to move from learning to executing the offense or they could be irrelevant by midseason.
BIRMINGHAM (4-0)
Another dream season so far in the USFL. Birmingham does not have the dominance we are seeing in Arizona, as they have been close in nearly every game to letting one slip, but they are finding a way to win. Now what they need to do is find their run game. Joseph Addai has only 144 yards in 4 games. And while the fans all want to see Owens and Moss running fly patterns, that is easier to do if there is a viable run threat. But, that said, this is still an incredible start for the Stallion faithful.
CHARLOTTE (3-1)
A surprise loss to the Dallas Roughnecks is the one blemish on an otherwise strong start for the defending Eastern Conference Champions. Fred Jackson is running well (308 yards before getting dinged up this week) and Jake Delhomme is among the league’s QBR leaders. The defense clearly misses Rey Maualaga, among the league leaders in tackles for New Jersey, but they are doing well enough to have Charlotte atop the division at the ¼ mark.
CHICAGO (2-2)
Sitting at .500 is not bad for the Machine, adding a win in division over Michigan is a nice touch too. The Machine are targeting Week 6 at St. Louis as their bellweather game. If they can win that and, even better, be 4-2 after 6 weeks, well then the confidence will be there. Now, all they have to do is avoid more Brady Quinn 6-interception games. Woof, that was a rough one.
DALLAS (2-2)
After opening a surprising 2-0, the Roughnecks have fallen back to earth. We have to remember that this was a club that had 3 wins all of 2012. Yes, they have changed up their roster quite a bit, but there are still holes here. What we do like is that even in the losses Jake Locker has played pretty well, with already over 1,000 yards and a very solid 88.0 QBR after 4 games. If the ‘Necks can continue to play complementary football, they could be one of the surprise teams this year (by that we mean surprisingly at or near .500).
DENVER (1-3)
The Gold always seem to be in the mix, but this year they are struggling to score, having been held under 14 points in all 3 losses. They need more out of the run game, to be sure, and out of Matt Leinart. The offense seems sluggish, unable to get big plays or quick drives. That seems a constant statement about Denver teams under Coach Jauron, but in past years defense has allowed that to be OK. This year’s club may not have enough to compete if they cannot get more offense going.
HOUSTON (2-2)
The Gamblers are right around where we thought they would be at this point. We thought they would beat Seattle and lose to St. Louis, and those results were reversed, but they are where we thought they would be. They are in the Top 10 in scoring, but give up too many points (ranked 22nd). If they can get more takeaways, or just more stops on defense, they can compete. They face Tampa, Atlanta, and Orlando in a 3-game SE swing to open the 2nd quarter of the season. They need to go 2-1 in that swing before facing the Wranglers in a very big Week 8 game in Glendale.
JACKSONVILLE (1-3)
The Bulls let one get away in the season opener in New Orleans, and they have struggled for consistency all season. Sitting at 1-3, but 1-1 in division is not a killer, but they need to find a way to get more out of the 23rd ranked offense if they hope to make waves in a pretty balanced SE Division.
LAS VEGAS (3-1)
The 3-0 start was a bit of surprise for a club that is dealing with a lot of off-the-field tension. The loss to Oakland this week was disappointing, but considering that both Jake Plummer and both starting receivers had to miss plays due to injuries, while Marshawn Lynch has been out since Week 2, gives hope to Thunder fans that all 4 will be back in action and that the Thunder can make a run, especially with 3 straight divisional games on the slate (Portland, @ Seattle, and home to LA).
LOS ANGELES (2-2)
Sitting at 2-2 is not going to excite LA fans, but what we saw this week from what appears to be a newly reimagined offensive plan has to. The Expressed put in a shorter passing game and more of a West Coast look and rattled off 41 points against a pretty solid Portland defense. Can they do that week in and week out? That is what fans are hoping and what the rest of the Pacific is afraid of.
MEMPHIS (1-3)
If you told the Showboats preseason that they would be tied for 2nd place in the division after 4 weeks, they likely would have taken that, but sitting at 1-3 is not really that positive, even if 2 other division foes are also doing the same. Memphis is getting what they hoped for from Eli Manning and Darren McFadden, but it is clear that they still have issues on offense, and one of them is that their line is a bit problematic and their receivers struggle to get open. Neither of those seems like a quick fix for them.
MICHIGAN (1-3)
Panther fans have to be happy with the first 4 games for both Kirk Cousins and LeVeon Bell, but that has not been enough to produce wins. Why? Well, two reasons. First, the yardage produced is not mirrored by points being put on the board. Too many failed drives or field goals instead of touchdowns. Secondly, the defense needs to do more, especially against the run, where they are allowing a disturbing 125.8 yards per game.
NASHVILLE (1-3)
This was supposed to be Peyton Manning’s coming out party, and while 986 yards and a QBR over 93 is not bad at all, it is not translating into wins. Let’s face it, the club is just not that explosive, Manning’s arm does not have the life it once did, the receivers are good but not great, and the run game with Ray Rice replacing Frank Gore is clearly not what the Knights hoped for. They got their first win this week and they have winnable games against New Jesey, Tampa, Portland, and New Orleans filling their 2nd quarter, so they could come out of it at 5-3 if they play their best football, but if they don’t they could also find themselves out of it by midseason, not a position Coach Johnson is often in.
NEW JERSEY (2-2)
The loss of Sam Bradford will define this season. Hoyer was able to hold on in Week 2 for a win, but since then the Generals have scored 6 and then 7 points. We are not sure that Charlie Whitehurst is the answer, but it is at least good to see the Generals trying. It will be tough for them to keep pace with the Feds and Stars, but they could still be in a Wild Card hunt if their D and run game can just give whoever their QB is a smaller role.
NEW ORLEANS (1-3)
The Breakers are looking rough on defense, which is a surprise considering they brought in Antonio Pierce to lead their LB group. Pierce is looking solid with 34 tackles, but the defense as a whole is shaky, giving up 28.5 PPG (worst in the league). They need to find some backbone in the D if they want to compete, because the offense of Matt Forte and Drew Brees is not strong enough to go it alone.
OAKLAND (3-1)
The win at home against Las Vegas was a big one for the Invaders, who may be a better team than they even believe they are. They have a Top 5 defense and an offense that is improving. Back to back division wins after their lone loss to Arizona have helped. Having a 3-0 division record in 4 weeks is a huge help. They have a huge game at LA this week. If they pull that one out they may then be the team to beat in the Pacific, but we are still going to circle that rematch with Vegas on our Week 15 calendar.
OHIO (3-1)
They may not be unbeaten like Arizona or Birmingham, but this start is all the Glory faithful could have hoped for. The run game is dynamic, Steve Smith is having a highlight reel season, and their QB controversy has turned out about as well as you could hope. Yes, the defense is still not great (ranked 20th in yards and 21st in points allowed), so that is a concern, but a 3-1 start is a great way to build confidence in Columbus.
ORLANDO (2-2)
The Renegades think they made the right move, trading Manning and giving Russell Wilson the offense. So far Wilson has looked very good, even if his 624 yards passing is not exactly an MVP number. He is protecting the ball, not trying to play hero ball, and the offense is responding. Calais Campbell finally had the big game this week that Orlando fans were waiting for, and if he and the defense can start to put more pressure on opposing QB’s, the ‘Gades could rebound from a horrific 2012.
PHILADELPHIA (4-0)
Apparently the preseason pick of the Stars to drop a notch or two has done nothing but inspire Philadelphia. Their defense is impressive, allowing only 8.5 points per game (2nd to Arizona) and they are diverse enough on offense to keep defenses guessing. Steve Slaton is averaging almost 90 yards per game, which is always a good start to an offense. They got the early win over Washington and we think their eventual position will depend a lot on their Week 15 rematch, because it is looking more and more like a 2-horse race in the division.
PITTSBURGH (1-3)
The Maulers were hoping a win against Ohio would put them at 2-2. Instead they sit at 1-3 and there are concerns that they may be slipping. Now, that said, they have been playing without Andy Dalton at QB for most of the season, but Dalton is expected back this week. That could be a turning point, though it will not be an easy game back as they face another old Central Division foe in Chicago.
PORTLAND (1-3)
The Stags started the season well, with a big win over Memphis, but they have now lost 3 straight divisional games, and will face Las Vegas next week. They have not clicked on either side of the ball, currently ranked 24th in points per game and 27th in points allowed. Neither of those bodes well for this club. Despite this, they still have the league’s leading rusher after 4 weeks in Jonathan Stewart, but unless they can get more from their last-ranked passing attack (only 165 yards per game), they may need to start selling off pieces to rebuild next year. Ryan Fitzpatrick is injured (out one to two weeks after taking a finger to the eye) which means that rookie Matt McGloin will get a chance to show what he can do. If he has success, he could wrest the starting gig away from Fitzpatrick. If not, well, do they go to Mike McMahon or hope Fitzie can improve this year?
SEATTLE: (2-2)
The Dragons are at .500, which is not a bad start for a team picked to finish last in the division. The defense has been solid, led by the secondary, and yet they have only 1 pick and 4 team sacks after a month. Those numbers have to worry Stump Mitchell. Cadillac Williams has been an upgrade at tailback, and the passing game is getting there, with Mike Wallace looking better this season than last. NFL Import Dennis Pitta has 9 receptions in his first 2 weeks with the team, and surprise starter Joe Toller is up to 13 catches, so expect to see more 2-TE sets this season.
ST. LOUIS (1-3)
The record is not what the Skyhawks hoped for one month in, and their only win coming with backup John David Booty at QB is also not ideal, but there are still signs that the Skyhawks can turn it around. The offense is still one of the best in the passing game, and rookie Eddie Lacy has also shown he can be a solid option, going over 100 yards in Week 2. They absolutely need more out of the defense as it appears that teams are willing to slow down the offense and take their chances that they can outlast the Skyhawks in a lower scoring game simply because the D is giving up too many big plays.
TAMPA BAY (1-3)
This is not the Bandit squad we expected to see. Yes, Vincent Jackson is having a very good year with Daunte Culpepper throwing him the ball, and Willis McGahee is looking very much like Wilis McGahee, but there seems to be little else going right. The defense is a major concern, having issues against both the run and the pass, and the offense, while not the worst in the league, is not exactly humming. The Bandits do not have an easy schedule, with Houston, Nashville, Atlanta and Charlotte up next, but they better start finding some ways to win these tough matchups or they could see themselves slipping even further behind.
TEXAS: (3-1)
The Outlaws are more or less where we expected them to be, but we did not predict a 4-0 Arizona team ahead of them in the standings. They will face Arizona this week in what should be the game of the week. If they can get the win on the road, that would position them very well for the rest of the season. If they lose and find themselves 2 games back of the Wranglers, well, that will create some challenges, even for a team as solid as the Outlaws.
WASHINGTON (3-1)
The Feds are another team that is looking very good but also looking up at an unbeaten division foe. Not only are the Feds 1 game behind the Stars, but their one loss this year was to Philadelphia, so it is like being 2 games back. That said, with New Jersey limping along without a QB and with both Pittsburgh and Baltimore sitting at 1-3, the Feds are still very much in a good position right now. They likely want a bit more out of their 16th ranked passing game, but they are happy to have a run game that is a bit more varied with Jahvid Best spelling Deuce McCallister and providing a spark in the passing game. All in all we expect Washington to be there at season’s end, and that includes a Week 15 showdown with the Stars in Philly.
Four USFL Owners Who May Be Looking at Las Vegas
When we reported last week that the league would be taking over operational management of the Las Vegas Thunder and that an ad hoc search committee had been created to seek out potential ownership for the franchise, well, it looks like we set off a bit of a frenzy. Fans from nearly every franchise in the league wanted to know if their team could be sold off so that their owner could take over what could be a very lucrative market with a new stadium already under way and a team that looks ready to roll. While the idea of most current USFL owners jumping ship on their franchises and signing on to take over a brand new franchise is largely ludicrous, it is not entirely out of the question, at least with a few of the teams in the league.
Our crack team of financial and organizational analysts looked at all 28 clubs in the USFL and we believe we have identified four of the 28 ownership groups that could be considering a Las Vegas option. Each one is different and not every scenario would even lead to their current USFL club dissolving or relocating, but some could. So, let’s break down the four franchises we think could be most impacted if the USFL does not find a ready, willing, and able external candidate to take on the Las Vegas Thunder franchise.
Chicago: Why, you ask, would the owner of a franchise in the nation’s 3rd largest market give up that market to purchase a team in a much smaller, less established location? Stadium rights. That is the key for the entire Las Vegas option. Unlike what we see in many cities, where the USFL is often either the lone tenant in an older facility owned by the city or shares a stadium with an NFL team where the NFL team, by virtue of longevity or finances, is the primary tenant and the USFL club gets a lesser cut of the deal, often a deal that may even provide the NFL franchise with funding from USFL sales of parking, concessions, or tickets. It may not always be an adversarial relationship, but in several NFL-USFL cities there is a 2nd fiddle aspect to the contract deal most USFL teams face, and that impacts profitability. That is true nowhere more than in Chicago where the deal the Bears have with Soldier Field allows them revenue even from Chicago Machine gamedays, while the Machine do not receive similar benefits.
The stadium itself in Chicago is fine, but the revenue streams are not as robust as they would be in Las Vegas, where the USFL’s investment in a new stadium would produce a situation where the owner would reap a much greater value from events, including USFL games and even possibly NFL games if the stadium is able to lure a fall tenant. Imagine a USFL owner benefitting not only from their own games, but from the Las Vegas concert scene and from a possible NFL franchise in town as well. That is the kind of revenue that Bill Wirtz (owner of the Machine) can only dream of in Chicago.
Los Angeles: The situation in LA with the Express is quite different from that in Chicago. What you have in LA is a team that is adequately (but not extravagantly) funded, but an ownership group that is a bit contentious and potentially interested in a split. What we envision for the Express, and what could cause a Las Vegas ownership group to develop, is the idea that several of the minority owners see potential benefit to becoming majority owners in a new franchise. One minority owner in particular, John Tu, who bought a 15% share of the Express in 2001. Tu, the Chinese-American tech investor behind Kingston Tech, and who sold off his shares of Softbank for $1.5B only to buy it back just a few years later at 1/3rd the price, has long had an interest in a more prominent role in the league. It seems unlikely he will find that opportunity within the LA Express ownership group, but if he were to sell off his ownership of the LA franchise, he would then be eligible to seek the Las Vegas franchise, and he certainly has the resources to put together a winning bid.
Nashville: The Knights are perhaps the best case, even more than Chicago, to prove the value of the front end stadium revenue model. Nashville not being the huge market that Chicago is, it would be even more likely for ownership to look at both the potential of the Las Vegas stadium situation, but also a much less problematic market shift from Nashville (the nation’s 40th largest MSA in 2010) to Las Vegas (the 34th and growing quickly) than say a Chicago relocation. We already know that Knights ownership has been trying and struggling to make strides in their negotiations with Adelphia Stadium and that they still are undervalued and receiving lower stadium revenue than many franchises (currently anticipated to be 26th of 28 franchises.) A move with the potential of the Las Vegas situation could certainly be a profitable option for Nashville ownership.
Portland: This one may be more a nostalgia pick than the other three. The Thunder began in Portland in 1988, and there is still a pretty sizeable contingent of Portland football fans who see the Thunder as an identity preferred over the current Stags franchise. Does that translate into a bid to purchase the team and transfer is identity to the Rose City? Could we see Portland make a deal with the league to assist with management, bring in additional owners, transfer the Thunder to Portland and essentially start fresh in Las Vegas with a new identity and new owners? There is some appeal in that, because despite the recent success on the field for the Thunder, the incessant negativity coming out of the financial investigations and possible legal actions against Thunder ownership have soured the city on the team quite noticeably. A new owner bringing in a new identity could be seen as a very positive outcome, and if that is a possibility, then Portland could very well be in the market to contribute to the value of the sale in exchange for the Thunder’s name, logo, identity and history.
Week 5 brings us a schedule with a lot of intrigue, but there are two that stand above the others. First we have a Saturday noon showdown between two unbeatens as Cam Newton and the Stallions travel up to Philadelphia to take on Steve Slaton and the Stars. Someone is coming out of this game 5-0, but will it be the scrappy Stallions or the methodical Star machine?
On Sunday we have another huge matchup with the 3-1 Texas Outlaws, favored to win the SW Division, heading to Glendale to face the surprising 4-0 Arizona Wranglers and their absolute shutdown defense. Will Joe Flacco and company be able to find a chink in the armor of the Wranglers or will Arizona shut down the Outlaw attack and build up a 2-game lead in the division?
Friday @ 8pm Atlanta (1-3) @ Jacksonville (1-3) NBC
Saturday @ 12pm Memphis (1-3) @ Washington (3-1) ABC
Saturday @ 12pm Birmingham (4-0) @ Philadelphia (4-0) FOX
Saturday @ 4pm Seattle (2-2) @ New Orleans (1-3) ABC
Saturday @ 4pm Tampa Bay 1-3) @ Houston (2-2) FOX
Saturday @ 7pm Michigan (1-3) @ Ohio (3-1) NBC
Saturday @ 9pm Oakland (3-1) @ Los Angeles (2-2) ESPN/EFN
Sunday @ 12pm Nashville (1-3) @ New Jersey (2-2) ABC
Sunday @ 12pm Orlando (2-2) @ Charlotte (3-1) ABC
Sunday @ 12pm Pittsburgh (1-3) @ Chicago (2-2) FOX
Sunday @ 4pm Portland (1-3) @ Las Vegas (3-1) ABC
Sunday @ 4pm Dallas (2-2) @ Denver (1-3) FOX
Sunday @ 4pm Baltimore (1-3) @ St. Louis (1-3) FOX
Sunday @ 8pm Texas (3-1) @ Arizona (4-0) ESPN/EFN
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