We have reached the midway point of the USFL season and what do we know? We know parity is very real, but that at least 3 teams have found a way to rise above the cluster. We know that QB play is essential as the teams at the top have dynamic passers and those at the bottom of the standings are either coping with QB injuries or just bad play altogether. We know that rookies can make a huge impact, that good coaching wins tight games, and that teams that know who they are and what they are good at tend to come out on top more often than not. What we also know is that this can all change in an instant. Last year we saw teams looking pretty at the midway break only to fall apart down the stretch. We also regularly see teams that find their groove and come on strong down the stretch. So, here we are at midseason, 8 games down, 8 to play, and now the stakes get raised just a little bit.
NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS 10 DENVER GOLD 17
Not exactly the most high-pressure rivalry in the USFL, the Breakers and Gold have only faced off in the regular season 15 times in 32 seasons. Denver owns the edge 11-4, and they had the edge in this game as well, though they came into the match in 3rd place in the West at 4-3, while New Orleans, with an identical 4-3 record was in first place in the South.
Played on a scorcher of a day for early May in Denver, the temperatures rose to an unexpected 93 degrees. You would think that would help the Breakers, who are more accustomed to the heat, but the altitude was still a factor, as it often is for opponents of the Gold. A nice crowd of 45,003 were on hand at Invesco Field to watch as the Gold took on the Breakers, and they game they got, while not high-scoring, was still a good one, with the kind of finish you have to see to believe.
To say the first half got off to a slow start would be an understatement. Five consecutive 3-and-outs began the game, leading to something of a sarcastic cheer when the Gold finally converted on a 3rd down late in the 1st quarter. They would not do much with it, and we continued a festival of punting. It was not until early in the 2nd quarter when someone would finally string together enough solid plays to reach field goal range. Denver had a solid drive, led by HB LeMichael James, and after a nice 17-yard run by the back, they were well within Greg Zeurlein’s range. Matt Leinart went for it all on 3rd down, missing a shot at Michael Crabtree, and Zeurlein came out to put the first points on the board.
After two more short, but unproductive drives, New Orleans rallied, with Drew Brees hitting Early Doucet on the Breaker’s biggest play of the game, a 46-yard completion. That put the Breakers in range, and they too went for the TD on 3rd down and settled for a short field goal. And that is how the game went into the half, 3-3 with both teams looking like the combination of heat, altitude, and midseason blahs were catching up to them.
The next 24 minutes of action did not do much to raise the energy level at Invesco field as the only points of the 3rd quarter came with one more Zeurlein kick. And it was not as if there were a lot of turnovers or huge defensive plays. Yes, a few solid third down efforts by the two defenses, but nothing earth-shattering. This was felt very much like a game that just did not have any energy. That was, until Denver went up 9-3 midway through the 4th with Zeurlein’s 3rd kick.
Down 6 with only 5:45 left to play, Drew Brees and the Breakers needed to find their inner spark and get something done. The Gold defense had held them at bay all game, with Brees still under 180 yards passing and the run game showing nothing. Jeremy Hill had only 8 carries and fewer than 25 yards, and Mike Tolbert had carried the ball only 3 times and had 0 yards to show for it. Denver had sacked Brees 3 times, and had disrupted several passes, but without snagging any for interceptions.
On the Breaker’s desperation drive, they mixed things up, finding lesser-used players like NFL import Kenny Britt, TE Shawn Nelson, and rarely seen slot receiver Donnie Avery to move the ball into range for Brees and the offense. By the time they got to the red zone, there was barely a minute left to play. They could not settle for the field goal. So, when a 3rd and goal from the 5 fell incomplete, the offense stayed on the field. The 4th down try got the Denver crowd to wake up, fearing that their club could lose on this final drive. Brees dropped back, looked towards Doucet, then quickly shifted and found his TE in the endzone. Shane Nelson caught the ball in traffic and New Orleans had done exactly what the Gold faithful feared, their PAT giving them a 10-9 lead with only 59 seconds left to play.
Denver could still win with a field goal, and they had 2 of their timeouts left, so there was time for Matt Leinart. Switching to a 3-receiver set with Tate, Crabtree, and Hankerson wide, with Daniel Graham flanking out as well, the Gold began chipping their way down field. Nine yards, then 7, then 11, then 5, then 7 again, bit by bit they made their way into field goal range. Zeurlein had connected from 24, 22, and 17 yards on the day, well shorter than his maximum range, but Denver wanted to get him as close as possible with the time they had. They had worked the ball to the New Orleans 33, which would be a 50-yard kick for Zeurlein, but there were still 11 seconds on the clock. Rather than a dive to the right side to set up Zeurlein, Coach Jauron went with a bit of trickery.
The Gold set up with 2 wideouts, 2 tight ends and DeMarco Murray in the backfield. With all of the Breakers geared up to limit Murray on his inside run, Leinart handed the ball off, Murray surged to the line, but then pitched the ball back to Leinart, now 12-yards back and out of range of the defensive linemen. Leinart looked first to Crabtree, his speedster, but the safety had played to that side. That left Golden Tate in single coverage and flying down the field. Leinart lofted the pass towards the endzone, Tate went up, tapped the ball with one hand, then snagged it, falling to the ground, his knees hitting just inside the backline. The official raised his hands to signal a touchdown and the stadium erupted.
Denver went for 2, with the conversion meaning that even a last second Breaker kickoff return for a score would not equal a win for New Orleans. That kickoff did not come, with Johnny Morant stopped at the 30. The whistle blew, the clock struck all zeroes, and the Gold had pulled off a huge comeback win in the final minute to down the Southern Division leaders. What had been nearly 55 minutes of just slogging, slow, and uneventful football turned in its final 5 minutes into an exciting back and forth battle between two teams that know how to win close games.
NASHVILLE 28 BIRMINGHAM 13
The Knights finally get up off the mat and pull out a win as they discover an offense. Cody Pickett throws for 283 and 3 TDs while the combination of LeGarrette Blount and Montario Hardesty rack up 131 yards and a TD as Nashville blows past a lackadaisical Birmingham squad. The Knights outgained Birmingham 416-283 and converted on 6 of 13 third down chances as the Stallion defense looked unprepared for the new-look Knight offense.
POTG: Knights QB Cody Pickett: 24/35, 283 Yds, 3 TD, 1 Int
NEW JERSEY 21 CHARLOTTE 24
Trouble in New Jersey as the Generals have now dropped 3 in a row. WR D. J. Hackett had a big game and Charlotte got scores from both Fred Jackson and Shonn Greene as they built a 24-14 lead. The defense sacked Sam Bradford 5 times and picked off two passes, including one on the final desperation drive for New Jersey, dropping the Generals to 4-4 and raising Charlotte to the same record.
POTG: Monarchs WR D. J. Hackett: 6 Rec, 133 Yds, 1 TD.
ORLANDO 14 ATLANTA 34
Atlanta asserts themselves as a contender in the SE Division with a big win over the visiting Orlando Renegades. The Fire built a 24-0 lead at the half before Orlando finally started fighting back. Kyle Orton had a good game, completing 20 of 27 passes for 227 yards and 2 scores. Orlando, playing without Russell Wilson, struggled to put points up, with both rookie Connor Shaw and veteran backup Chad Henne each playing a half. Henne had more luck in the 2nd half, but could not outpace the Fire.
POTG: Fire DB Earl Thomas: 2 Tck, 1 Int, 1 Def TD.
ARIZONA 10 MICHIGAN 12
David Carr got knocked out of the game on a safety endzone tackle in the first quarter and backup Nick Foles could not muster much on offense as Michigan pulls this one out on defense. Wrangler QBs were sacked a combined 8 times in the game. Michigan HB LeVeon Bell was the only reliable offensive player all game, rushing for 92 yards on 26 carries and scoring the key TD for the Panthers as they moved to 4-4 and drop Arizona to the same record.
POTG: Michigan DE Justin Tuck: 6 Tck, 2 Sck, 1 FF.
CHICAGO 26 OHIO 36
Ohio gets the divisional win to move to 5-3 as they get a huge day from Steve Smith (8 rec, 156 yds, 2 TD) and rush for a combined 136 yards with Pead and Jennings. Chicago tried to keep pace, and Doug Martin had a good bounce-back game with 102 yards, but there was just not enough in the tank as Quinn was sacked 5 times by the Glory defense. Chicago, once the division favorite, now drops to 3-5 at the halfway point.
POTG: Ohio WR Steve Smith: 6 rec, 156 Yds, 2 TD.
PORTLAND 6 BALTIMORE 49
The Blitz are looking like one of the league’s best teams as they move to 6-2 with a thorough thumping of the Portland Stags. Big Ben completed 20 of 26 passes for 346 yards and 3 TDs as Baltimore rolled. Darius Heyward-Bey continues to impress, catching 6 for 132 and a TD on the day. The defense also did their part, limiting the Stags to 2 of 12 on third down and 252 total yards.
POTG: Blitz QB Ben Roethlisberger: 20/26, 346 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
OAKLAND 31 LAS VEGAS 17
The Invaders regained sole possession of first place in the Pacific with a convincing win over the Thunder. Keenan Allen caught 6 for 136, and rookie TE Richard Rodgers had 7 catches as the Invader passing game found plenty of holes in the Las Vegas defense. With Marshawn Lynch held to only 46 yards rushing, Oakland’s D also did their part to get the Invaders the key divisional win.
POTG: Invader QB Joey Harrington: 25/34, 342 Yds, 3 TD, 0 Int.
SEATTLE 14 PHILADELPHIA 31
The Stars continue to roll as they hit the midway point an impressive 7-1 on the year. It was a balanced attack for the Stars with Steve Slaton rushing for 91 yards and a score and Matt Gutierrez going 22 of 31 for 235 and 2 touchdowns. With Stevie Johnson out, it was rookie Allen Robinson having his best game of the year with 6 receptions for 48 yards. Travis Kelce added 4 for 64, and the Stars defense helped out with 4 sacks, 1 interception and stopping 7 of 10 third down attempts.
POTG: Stars DE Anthony Hargrove: 4 Tck, 2 Sck.
DALLAS 20 WASHINGTON 27
The Federals escaped a plucky Roughnecks team as the USFL had its first version of the NFL’s big Dallas-Washington rivalry. It was the Deuce McCallister show as the veteran back erupted for 29 carries and 180 yards against the overmatched Dallas defense. David Garrard again had a good game, throwing for 240 with 2 scores. Dallas played the Feds tough, getting TDs form Ben Watson and Brandon Manumaleuna, but it was just not quite enough to get the W.
POTG: Federals HB Deuce McCallister: 29 Att, 180 Yds.
JACKSONVILLE 13 TAMPA BAY 27
The Bulls continue to flounder and the Bandits to thrive as Tampa Bay equals Philly for the best record in the East at 7-1. Three Culpepper TDs helped the Bandits pull away after a 10-7 Bulls lead at the half. Culpepper would throw for 311, despite 4 sacks by the Bulls’ defense. LB Brian Orakpo was named POTG for his 2 sack, 10 tackle game. A good NFL signing for sure.
POTG: Bandits LB Brian Orakpo: 10 Tck, 2 Sck.
PITTSBURGH 7 LOS ANGELES 27
The Express make it 2 in a row as they shut down Andy Dalton and the Maulers to win their 3rd of the year. The two teams were almost even in yards gained (326-307) but the results were very different as LA got touchdowns form L. J. Smith, Reggie Bush, and LeRon McClain, while the Maulers could manage only 1 Ronnie Brown TD for their efforts.
POTG: Express MLB Clay Matthews; 5 Tck, 1 FF, 2 PD
HOUSTON 20 MEMPHIS 6
An ugly game for Ryan Mallett, going 16 for 40 for only 107 yards and throwing 2 picks in a lopsided loss for the Showboats. Houston had 2 backs go over 100 yards as they simply ran over the Showboat defense. Carlos Hyde led all rushers with 124 on 25 carries, while Ben Tate averaged 11.1 YPC in mop up duty, carrying the ball 10 times for 111 yards. The Showboats could do nothing right, finishing the day with only 150 total yards and only 2 field goals on the scoreboard.
POTG: Gambler FS Willie Andrews: 2 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 Int, 1 Sfty.
ST. LOUIS 13 TEXAS 31
Texas leads the Western Conference at 7-1 after knocking off the Skyhawks in San Antonio. What may be even scarier is that the Outlaws finally found a run game. NFL Import Chris Johnson looked a lot like his earlier self, rushing for 116 yards on 17 carries, a 6.8 YPC average. Felix Jones contributed another 53 on only 9 carries as the Skyhawk run defense was shown to be lacking. St. Louis drops to 3-5 as they simply could not keep pace with a very smooth Texas offense.
POTG: Outlaw HB Chris Johnson: 17 Att, 116 Yds, 1 TD.
Knights to Stick with Pickett, Manning Future Uncertain
Coach Greg Roman made it official today. The Nashville Knights will retain Cody Pickett as their starter even after Peyton Manning is cleared to play. For how long, we don’t know, but Pickett earning the club’s second win this weeks certainly made the announcement more believable. This is a major blow to Manning, who came to the USFL with hopes of proving that his 2011 spinal fusion surgery is not the end of his career. While he has done that, playing the entire 2013 season without incident, a second back injury, though not related directly to the prior issues with his neck, did cast a shadow on his second act, and now, demotion to the sideline, is another blow to the former NFL MVP.
Whether or not this decision will hasten a retirement announcement from Manning is unclear, but what is certain is that confidence in him as a viable starting option in Nashville has waned. Pickett has hardly been lighting the league on fire since he got the chance to enter the game 3 weeks ago, but he has done enough to show that he is a potential long term option, and for Roman, that long term potential at QB is an enticing possibility.
Manning is still not cleared to play, though his injury status has been updated to “Questionable”. By most accounts he is expected to have clearance this weekend, but now will spend the game holding a clipboard and coaching up Pickett as the Knights take on the Federals at LP Field.
Orlando loses 2 Big Offensive Weapons
This was a very rough week for fans of offensive football in Orlando as the Renegades lost two solid contributors from an offense that already has had some issues. Starting wideout Michael Jenkins is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a fracture in his left leg, while 3rd down back Latavius Murray could be out as much as 8 weeks, essentially the entire remaining regular season, with his own leg fracture, his being in the femur, which is notoriously slow to mend.
Jenkins currently leads the ‘Gades with 33 receptions, though it is number two receiver Jeremy Maclin who has the yardage lead with 507 to Jenkins’s 388. Expect Maclin to move into the top target position, with Dwayne Harris possibly beside him and DeSean Jackson retaining his slot position. As for Murray, the 2nd year back had a solid start to the season, getting 78 carries to Knowshon Moreno’s 85, and rushing for 385 yards to Moreno’s 405. This total was helped by three weeks in which Moreno was injured or not at full strength and during which Murray acted as the lead back, including Week 4, which saw the back rush fro 130 yards against Charlotte. Since Moreno’s return, Murray’s carries have dropped below 10 per game, but he remained a steady part of the passing game.
With Murray out of action for at least a month, Orlando will look to Tim Hightower to act as the relief for Moreno, while the starter may well be kept in the lineup for more 3rd downs, testing his pass-catching prowess. Orlando faces the Memphis Showboats this week, and we should have a good idea of how Coach Fox will address the two injuries as he gameplans for Memphis.
Eli Not Ready to Return for Showboats
As Memphis prepares for Orlando this weekend, it appears that once again Eli Manning will be unable to go. The Showboat season starter is still listed as Doubtful and seems unlikely to return to action before Week 10 at the earliest. In his absence, the Showboats have, well, stunk. That is about the only way to say it. They rank 27th in points scored, 27th in yards gained, and the passing game is struggling to make anything happen. Matt Cassel got the initial starts for the injured Manning, but in 3 games he threw 4 picks and 4 touchdowns, losing all 3 starts. Ryan Mallett got the start against New Orleans in Week 6 and has not fared much better. In fact he has a lower completion percentage (only 44%) and has 3 picks to no touchdowns, but, to his credit, he was under center in the Showboat’s lone victory in the past 6 weeks, a narrow 20-17 edge over the Knights.
We expect Mallett to get the start again this week, but, as always, all eyes will likely be on Eli Manning and the injury report. If Memphis has any hopes of salvaging the season, at least avoiding a 10-loss season once again, they will be looking to Manning to work some miracles. At 2-6, they don’t have a lot of time to make things right.
Another bad injury week as 10 players were listed as being out for Week 9 action, including two added to the injured reserve list, Texas guard Kyle Long and Baltimore backup QB Vince Young. Add to that some significant injuries to key players on several teams, from HBs Jahvid Best in Tampa Bay and J. J. Arrington in Atlanta, along with WR Michael Jenkins of the Renegades and CB Marcus Truffant of the Express, and this week is looking like one that could impact results moving forward.
OUT
G Kyle Long TEX Back IR
QB Vince Young BAL Quad IR
HB J. J. Arrington ATL Leg 6-8 Weeks
FB Greg Jones POR Back 6-8 Weeks
FS Dominique Barber STL Hip 6-8 Weeks
WR Michael Jenkins ORL Leg 4-6 Weeks
OT Ryan Clady DEN Wrist 4-6 Weeks
HB Jahvid Best TBY Back 2-4 Weeks
CB Marcus Truffant LA Abdomen 2-4 Weeks
DT Holoti Ngata LV Leg 2-4 Weeks
DOUBTFUL
WR Larry Fitzgerald ARZ Concussion
WR Marqise Lee LA Foot
FS Mark Barron LV Hand
TE Joel Dreesen NOR Concussion
QUESTIONABLE
HB Frank Gore ARZ Hamstring
WR Stevie Johnson PHI Foot
CB Richard Sherman SEA Knee
TE Travis Kelce PHI Concussion
HB Joseph Addai BIR Knee
The 5 Biggest Surprises of the Season’s First Half
Every season writes its own story, and every season surprises us with the plot twists, character development, and unforeseen changes of fortune. As we look over the first eight weeks of the 2014 season, there has certainly been a lot to be excited about and a lot that we could not have foreseen. Looking at the season’s first half, here are the five stories that have surprised us to date.
Rookies Raise the Stakes for the Gamblers
The Houston Gamblers are sitting pretty in the Central Division with an impressive 6-2 record, and that is due in large part to the quality of their rookie class. It is always a plus when a team can get production out of their rookie class, but what Houston is seeing is beyond positive, it is transformative. Rookie HB Carlos Hyde currently sits in 4th place among all USFL rushers with 690 yards, on pace to eclipse 1,300 on the year. Texas A&M Wideout Mike Evans leads the team with 36 catches and 440 yards, beating out both Roy Williams and Mike Sims-Walker, the two vets expected to be at the top of the Gambler’s target list.
Beyond the big two, Houston is also getting valuable snaps from other 2014 draftees. Center Travis Swanson has been averaging 18 plays per game, while CB Malcolm Butler has been in 8-10 defensive plays each game as well as serving as a kick returner for the Gamblers, a second option behind Bethel Johnson, the team’s special teams star. With contributions from four rookies, including the strong performances from Hyde and Evans, the Gamblers appear solidly in the playoff hunt in a tough SW Division.
Wranglers Struggle to Find Formula
As much as Houston’s fast start has been a surprise in the Southwest, the defending champion Wrangler’s struggles have also been a story to follow. Arizona sits at only 4-4 after eight weeks, and, what may be more troubling, their killer defense has slipped a bit, ranked only 7th in points allowed and 17th in rushing yards allowed. A big piece of Arizona’s 2013 success was on the back of HB Frank Gore, but the grinder of a back seems to be spinning his wheels more than in 2013. Gore has a respectable 489 yards rushing, good enough only for 14th in the league. What is more, his per carry average has dipped to only 3.6 yards per touch, not enough to help Arizona grind out first downs and keep the defense off the field.
The Wranglers are certainly not out of the hunt, and a strong second half could see them in the mix again, but if they want to improve over the second half, they may have to look at diversifying their offense a bit to give the D more down time. Gore has 135 of the team’s 170 rushing attempts (not counting QB scrambles). Could rookie Ka’Deem Carey provide some rest for the big man in the season’s final 8 weeks? And while the duo of Larrry Fitzgerald and Antonio Bryant is certainly capable, Coach Tomsula and QB David Carr need to get more balls in the hands of other receivers, most notably TE Rob Gronkowski, who has only 17 catches in 8 games, barely 2 per outing. David Tyree and Kassim Osgood have combined for only 19 catches, a number well below what the Wranglers need if they are going to stay on the field.
A strong second half will start this week, when the Wranglers host the Gamblers in what could be considered a bellweather game for their playoff chances. A defeat against the Gamblers would put them under .500 and well behind the two leaders in the division, Houston and the Texas Outlaws.
Parity Rules in Southeast & Central Divisions
Yes, we know the old line about parity vs. parody, and with both the Southern and Central divisions there are certainly critics who complain that neither division has a true Summer Bowl contender amongst them, but when we look closer we see signs of both competitiveness and balance across both divisions.
Starting in the South, New Orleans, sitting at 5-3, has a very solid 3-3 record outside its division, including wins over the Wranglers and the Baltimore Blitz. Birmingham sits at 2nd place at 4-4, but they too have had some good victories, including two strong performances back-to-back against Arizona and Houston. Yes, Memphis has truly struggled without Eli Manning, dropping 5 of their past 6 games, and Nashville lost 6 in a row before this week’s victory at Birmingham, but both clubs have shown they can play teams tough and could play spoiler down the stretch.
In the Central, Ohio leads the division at 5-3, on the heels of a strong first half at home, where they are still unbeaten at 5-0. Their road game has been the issue, dropping all three travel games, but the team looks solid, ranking in the upper half of the league in nearly every team stat, with particular strength in run defense, where they are allowing only 80 yards per game. Just behind them at 4-4 are the Michigan Panthers, winners of their last 3 games. Michigan has shown an ability to defend the pass which was not there last year, ranking 6th in the USFL after 8 games. With Hines Ward back, the offense is more productive, and Kirk Cousins has himself a true go-to target. LeVeon Bell is also looking strong with 700 yards placing him 3rd among all USFL backs. What makes the Central most intriguing is that despite some stumbles in the opening 8 weeks, both Chicago and St. Louis, expected to be atop the division this year, are still very much in range at 3-5. Both clubs have struggled on defense, with St. Louis giving up 190 points in their first 8 games, while Chicago’s 168 is well above their expectation.
So, what do we expect in the 2nd half of the year. We think the Breakers could pull away from their pack in the South, but we see the Central remaining a close battle with all 4 clubs having a say down the stretch in what could be the most balanced division in the league.
Mannings Missing from Southern Race
One of the most storied families in football is having a pretty disastrous year. Eli and Peyton Manning were supposed to be the heroes of football in the state of Tennessee. Former Ole Miss product Eli had arrived in Memphis last year with promises of reviving the Showboat attack. He had great numbers in 2013, with over 4,800 yards passing and 27 touchdowns, but 2014 has been anything but a repeat of his initial success. Suffering an arm injury in the 2nd game of the year, Eli has not been able to make it back onto the field, and could miss even more time. What was thought to be a 2-4 week injury is stretching to possibly a 6-8 week absence, which is not at all what Memphis needed.
For Peyton, the issue has not been injury as much as performance. Yes, Peyton did suffer a minor back injury, which, with his history, is concerning, but it is simply the lack of production that has led the Knights to go with Cody Pickett at QB. While Manning’s 65.4% completion rate was solid, he produced only 3 touchdowns in his 5 starts. Pickett, coming in during Week 6, has produced a 5:1 TD:INT ratio, and helped the Knights snap a 6-game losing streak with a win at Birmingham this week, one where he produced 4 TD drives, capping off three with scoring tosses.
Many in the Volunteer State are now looking at the 2-6 records of their favorite teams and wondering if the Mannings were more flash than substance, at least this year. That cynical take on the year could dissipate, particularly if Eli is able to return and produce some wins, but the Mannings certainly are looking at the season to date as one to forget.
Baltimore Blindsides the Northeast
Look at our preseason picks and you can see why we say that Baltimore’s 6-2 record is a blindside hit for the NE Division. This was a team we expected to take a major fall and to finish in 5th place, and they are looking very much like a club that can compete with the Stars and challenge for the division. While New Jersey and Washington have not lived up to expectations, Baltimore has exceeded them. The defense is among the league’s best, allowing only 16.1 PPG and giving up only 201 passing yards per outing. Led by LB Jason Taylor and FS Adam Archuleta, the Baltimore D has proven to be aggressive, fast, and smart. They don’t have a dominant pass rusher, but still have 19 team sacks. They have also been able to turn offensive mistakes into takeaways for the D, with CBs Jabari Greer and Nnambi Asomugha combining for 5 picks in the opening 8 weeks.
On offense, Big Ben is having one of his best seasons as a pro, throwing for over 2,200 yards and 20 TDs at the midway point. He has been bolstered by an undervalued receiver group that has stepped up in a big way. No player has been more of a surprise this year than Blitz WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, whose 776 yards trails only Marques Colston (TEX) among all receivers. Add in Antonio Gates, who leads all tight ends with 605 yards and 6 TDs, and the Blitz have found themselves a pretty good formula to win consistently.
The 5 Break Out Stars of the First Half
Just as teams can surprise us, individual players can also exceed expectations and break out of the crowd. We have chosen 5 players who we believe have big years underway and even bigger and brighter futures. Only one is a rookie, but all five are players who are making a name for themselves in 2014.
Carlos Hyde, HB-HOU
You knew Hyde had to be here. The clear frontrunner for ROTY, with only Odell Beckham Jr. even in contention, Hyde has been among the league’s elite backs since the opening week. He has already logged three 100-yard games, and could be leading Houston back to playoff football after a 3-year drought.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR-BAL
We already mentioned DHB in our review of Baltimore’s quick start, but a season like this deserves some more attention. Heyward-Bey has toyed with 1,000 yards in the past, reaching 900 but never the 1k mark in each of the past 3 seasons. Well, this year he seems on a mission to not only shatter that ceiling, but to fly well above it. With nearly 800 yards in only the first 8 games, we could easily see DHB sitting at 1,500 yards by season’s end.
Aaron Dobson, WR-CHI
The 2nd year receiver for the Machine has taken over as Brady Quinn’s primary target, with over 70 targets in the season’s first 8 weeks. He has come down with 53 of those throws, and is leading the Machine in targets, receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns. If the Machine are going to climb back to .500 and into playoff contention, Dobson will be a big piece of the picture for them.
Chris Kelsay, DE-ATL
Defensive End Chris Kelsay really burst on the scene last year, with his first double-digit sack total (15) in an 11-season career. This year, his 12th in the league, he is on pace to hit 20 sacks, with 11 over the first 8 weeks. Atlanta is sitting at 5-3 and has a defense rated as Top 5 in both yards allowed and passing yards allowed in large part due to Kelsay’s motor and drive to the QB.
Jarrett Johnson, LB-JAX
There is not a lot of good news around the winless Jacksonville Bulls, but one shining hope for the future is in linebacker Jarrett Johnson. The 3rd year backer, brought over from Nashville after his rookie season, has 63 tackles over the opening half of the year, well on pace for his first 100-tackle season. Known primarily as a blitzing edge rusher (5 and 6 sacks in 2012 and 2013), Johnson has rounded out his game with the Bulls this year, one of very few Bull players who can be said to be having an up year.
Our Revised Divisional Race Predictions
Picking the races in the preseason is never easy. There are so many roster additions, you have no idea how rookies will really pan out, and one injury can derail an entire season. In other words, don’t blame us if our picks from March are not holding up. This is football, and our best estimates of the season ahead are just that, estimates. So, with 8 weeks down, how are we doing? Well, let’s just say that not everything has gone to plan. Here is our chance to right the wrongs of the past. We revise our picks from the preseason edition and try to give another guess as to where things could end up by season’s end.
This was one that has certainly surprised us. We looked at Baltimore and New Jersey and thought the Generals had a better chance to improve quickly over last year. Right now it looks like Baltimore would have been the better call. We still think New Jersey and Washington can get right back in this thing with a strong 2nd half, but now we are feeling like the battle is for 3rd place and a Wild Card, not to challenge the Stars and Blitz at the top. We also have to say that we saw better things for the Maulers than we are getting from them this year.
Our Original Ranking: 1-PHI 2-WSH 3-PIT 4-NJ 5-BAL
Our Revised Ranking: 1-PHI 2-BAL 3-WSH 4-NJ 5-PIT
While Tampa Bay has certainly impressed us more than we anticipated, the Southeast is not as out of whack as the Northeast. Right now it looks like the Bandits are in the driver’s seat, but we could see Atlanta pull them back a bit, and we are not usre Orlando or Charlotte are truly out of it. What we did not anticipate was Jacksonville going winless after 8 games. Can they get it together or do we need to consider 0-16 as a realistic possibility?
Our Original Ranking: 1-TBY 2-CHA 3-ATL 4-ORL 5-JAX
Our Revised Ranking: 1-TBY 2-ATL 3-ORL 4-CHA 5-JAX
In the South, we had New Orleans as the team to beat, Memphis rising, Birmingham falling and Nashville bringing up the rear. We will never know how the year would have turned out without the Eli Manning injury, but we do think that in the second half, when Eli returns, the Showboats could rise to their potential, though their defense still seems lost. We think Birmingham, even with decent production from their new WR group, is still an 8-8 team, so we don’t see a big change in the standings from now until Week 16 and our preseason picks could actually hold up.
Our Original Rankings: 1-NOR 2-BIR 3-MEM 4-NSH
Our Revised Rankings: 1-NOR 2-BIR 3-MEM 4-NSH
Chicago has been a letdown, and we still don’t really have a good answer as to why they are losers of 4 in a row. Ohio has been the bright spot, which we thought they had the potential to do. We think Michigan at .500 feels about right, and we are not sure what to make of the Skyhawks. Clearly whatever magic they had in 2012 is no longer there. So, our rankings are practically upside down from what we predicted.
Our Original Rankings: 1-CHI 2-STL 3-OHI 4-MGN
Our Revised Rankings: 1-OHI 2-CHI 3-MGN 4-STL
While we all expected Texas to be tough, what we could not see after the preseason was the decline of Arizona’s defense or the rise of Houston’s rookie class. Those two big shifts have impacted the SW Division heavily. As for Denver, well, they are who they are, and they just keep plugging along. Dallas, well, life is never easy with a rookie QB.
Our Original Rankings: 1-ARZ 2-TEX 3-DEN 4-HOU 5-DAL
Our Revised Rankings: 1-TEX 2-HOU 3-DEN 4-ARZ 5-DAL
This felt like a division that Oakland could run away with, but that distance has been harder to come by for the Invaders. Las Vegas is hanging tough despite all the distractions and the trio of LA, Seattle, and Portland have all shown that they can win games. We had the Thunder bringing up the rear, which could still happen, but is not the case right now. If one of the three 3-5 clubs can string together a good run, they could challenge the Invaders, but we think that the parity here will keep any one team from going on a tear.
Our Original Rankings: 1-OAK 2-POR 3-LA 4-SEA 5-LV
Our Revised Rankings: 1-OAK 2-POR 3-LV 4-SEA 5-LA
NFL Raiders & Chargers Both Exploring Las Vegas Option
It appears that the City of Las Vegas may have done too good of a job of selling their new 65,000 seat domed stadium as a possible NFL venue. It appears they have set up something of a reverse bidding war, with both the Los Angeles Raiders and the San Diego Chargers negotiating terms to relocate to Sin City. This is not only great news for the stadium authority, and for the USFL, which will reap the benefits of the NFL lease in helping to finance the new facility, but could be a boon to either the LA Express or soon-to-relocate Thunder. How is that? Well, it all comes down to primary tenancy.
The Express and the Raiders have been sharing Farmers Insurance Field since it was constructed, and while the terms for both teams are certainly adequate, the Raiders had a slight edge in negotiations since the Express were an expansion team, with a poor track record for attendance in their first iteration. That all but guaranteed the Raiders to be the primary tenant, with right of refusal on USFL requests for everything from office space in the facility to additional revenue from off-season event arranged by the Express. Were the Raiders to relocate to Las Vegas, something very much on the minds of the Davis family, the Express would move into primary position as the facility’s primary tenant, with the LA Galaxy soccer club as the secondary, and that would be a bonus for the club.
A similar situation exists in San Diego, with a bit of a twist. Certainly, were the Chargers to pull up shop for Las Vegas, the new tenants, the USFL Thunder, would have a better position to be viewed as the primary tenant, with the inherent advantages that come with that. However, unlike Farmers Insurance Field, Qualcomm is not a state-of-the-art facility, and the Spanos family (owners of the Chargers) have been fighting for years to get a new facility constructed. If John Moores and John Tu take up that fight, they would no longer have an NFL team to offer the stadium year-round use, though it is expected that John Moores’s prior ownership of the Padres and connections to San Diego State University might actually have more sway in local government than the Spanos family was able to muster.
What does a possible NFL franchise in Las Vegas mean for the USFL there? Well, it might split the fanbase somewhat, though many markets have shown that fans are more than happy to root for the local NFL team in the Fall and then switch to the USFL team each spring. The immediate impact is on the revenue side, which is good for both the USFL and for Steve Wynn, who not only bought a minority share in the new Las Vegas club, but also in the stadium itself, thus the name Wynn Arena. Having both a USFL and NFL team guarantees no fewer than 16 high value dates a year, not that Las Vegas cannot attract other large events, concerts or conventions. It means immediate upgrade to “big league” status for the city, and it means double the football revenue for Wynn, the USFL and the stadium authority.
Just when the NFL will hear the cases for either team to make a move is unclear, and certainly there will be pushback within the fall league ownership about losing either major California market, but there does seem to be momentum towards having one of the two SoCal clubs find a new home in Las Vegas, and that comes as very good news to the USFL and whichever franchise is the as-yet undisclosed tenant in Wynn Arena.
We open the second half of the season with 9 of 14 games being divisional rivalries. We kick it off in the Southeast, with Tampa visiting Atlanta in what could be a must-win for the Fire if they want to have a shot at the division crown. Saturday sees two potential battles for first place with Birmingham traveling to New Orleans at 7pm on NBC and then LA in Oakland at 9pm ET.
Sunday also has some big divisional games, starting off with the 6-2 Blitz headed to Philadelphia to take on the 7-1 Stars. This could be the defining game of the year for the upstart Baltimore Blitz. At 4pm, we have another huge game for the Wranglers, trying to stay relevant in the division they dominated last season. They host the Houston Gamblers, and a loss could put them 4 games behind the Outlaws and 3 back of 2nd place. Finally, in the ESPN/EFN Sunday night game, we have the Machine and the Skyhawks, both 1 game behind Ohio in the parity-spiked Central Division, facing off in the Dome at America’s Center with a shot at 1st on the line. A big week, and it will only get bigger from here.
FRI @ 8pm ET Tampa Bay (7-1) @ Atlanta (5-3) NBC
SAT @ 12pm ET Pittsburgh (2-6) @ New Jersey (4-4) ABC
SAT @ 12pm ET Memphis (2-6) @ Orlando (4-4) FOX
SAT @ 4pm ET Texas (7-1) @ Portland (3-5) ABC
SAT @ 4pm ET Michigan (4-4) @ Denver (5-3) FOX
SAT @ 7pm ET Birmingham (4-4) @ New Orleans (5-3) NBC
SAT @ 9pm ET Los Angeles (3-5) @ Oakland (5-3) ESPN/EFN
SUN @ 12pm ET Baltimore (6-2) @ Philadelphia (7-1) ABC
SUN @ 12pm ET Washington (4-4) @ Nashville (2-6) FOX Regional
SUN @ 12pm ET Charlotte (4-4) @ Jacksonville (0-8) FOX Regional
SUN @ 4pm ET Las Vegas (4-4) @ Seattle (3-5) ABC Regional
SUN @ 4pm ET Ohio (5-3) @ Dallas (1-7) ABC Regional
SUN @ 4pm ET Houston (6-2) @ Arizona (4-4) FOX
SUN @ 8pm ET Chicago (3-5) @ St. Louis (3-5) ESPN/EFN
What happened to the Rivalry series this week? No. 8?