February 9, 2017
Welcome back to This Week in the USFL, which we guess should be called These Past 3 Months in the USFL. We delayed our publication of the USFL offseason edition until 2 weeks after the USFL Draft because we just had a feeling that the early fallout from the draft might lead to some interesting moves, and we were absolutely right. So, we are now ready, with USFL camps opening up all of the country and the NFL-USFL Transfer window ready to open in 3 days, to review the past 3 months, the big stories, the moves that could make or break the season, the USFL and NFL draft picks that are making their choice of where to play as we speak, and the moves necessitated by the signings that happened and those that did not.
We are going to kick the report off with our update on the Eli Manning saga, with the veteran QB choosing his destination, and sending ripples all across the league in its wake. Then we will go through the past 3 months in order, breaking the report up by pre-draft, Draft Day 1, Draft Day 2, and the 2 weeks post-draft. This should catch you all up as we head into camps and into the NFL transfer period, the last chance for teams to bring in new faces and fill obvious gaps in their rosters. It is an exciting time all across the league as teams start to set up and prepare for the 2017 season. Let’s get right to it with Eli Manning’s big decision.
Manning Goes for the Glitz
After 4 months of deliberation, presentations, team visits, and constant negotiation, QB Eli Manning has made his pick. In the end it came down to two options, a high visibility market with a lot of glitz but a questionable football track record and a reliable football town but a team looking to essentially start from scratch. In the end, Eli made his choice, and in a hotel media room in New Orleans (the QB’s offseason home), he announced his choice, surrounded by his family and his agent, and put on his head the ball cap of the…Las Vegas Vipers.
Manning’s decision, over months, had slowly whittled away the less serious contenders, the teams that were just fishing, and the teams with no cap room to spare. By Thanksgiving it was down to Atlanta and Las Vegas. The Fire had a lot of cap room, a lot of appeal in a football rich part of the country, not all that far from Manning’s New Orleans home or his Ole Miss college campus, but still very much the region where he had made his name and where his Q-factor (marketability) was all but maxed out. Atlanta also had major issues at HB, a depleted WR group, and two QBs on the roster who had no interest in stepping away from a possible starting gig.
In Las Vegas, Manning was offered the chance to build a franchise as well, but one that had perhaps a more solid foundation, built in Nashville and relocated to Sin City. This was the team Eli’s brother, Peyton, had briefly led, but after 2 seasons in Las Vegas they were also a bright, shiny, new toy for the city, a city where glitz and marketing were center stage. In Las Vegas, Manning would have several of the same issues as in Atlanta, a poor run game, a mid-range receiver group, and a defense that had issues. Las Vegas also had a new coach in town, and while Rick Neuheisel did not have the reputation of Atlanta’s Bruce Arians, he was a former QB, and he knew how to approach Manning as a QB. He could talk to him about legacy, about mechanics, about leadership, and with an authentic voice of a former USFL starter.
Manning, in the end, had two very similar teams to choose from, but two very different locations, and he went with the better financial opportunity. If he could have success on the field in Las Vegas, he could “expand his brand” so to say, essentially become a marketing commodity in the entire U.S. West, while still largely retaining his popularity in the South thanks to his upbringing, years at Ole Miss, in Orlando, New Orleans and Memphis. That, plus the challenge of outperforming his brother with the same team, an enticement he likes to joke about, pushed Eli towards the Vipers.
The Vipers, for their part, did all that they could to make the case to Eli. Even before his star-studded whirlwind visits with the team and in the city, Las Vegas had committed to making a deal possible. They extended several contracts, restructured others, made some tough personnel decisions, and essentially rewrote their cap story to match what Atlanta could offer. They made the deal possible, and just needed to sell the idea of Eli in Las Vegas to the quarterback and his agent.
So now Eli Manning will be the starter Day One in Wynn Arena, with his premier game scheduled for Week 2 against Michigan. Far from the familiarity of playing in Memphis, New Orleans, Houston, Birmingham and the South, Eli would now be relocating to the desert, facing off against teams in Denver, Dallas, Phoenix, and Oklahoma, selling the Vipers to a large region of the country and selling himself to USFL fans as a new QB, a leader growing in maturity, expertise, and leadership. It is a very new start for the youngest of the Manning boys, but also an amazing opportunity for Eli to redefine his legacy and his image across the country.
The 2016-2017 Winter Timeline
While the Manning Sweepstakes occupied a lot of the offseason attention of USFL fans during the long fall and early Winter, it was hardly the only story to hit the press since our October edition. Rather than break the stories down by category, we will create a timeline, going month by month with the biggest signings, deals, decisions, and pre-draft preparations, then review the T-Draft, the Open Draft, and then the post-draft frenzy as teams try to sign prospects ahead of and even during the NFL draft. There is a lot to cover, so let’s get straight to it.
October 15 to Thanksgiving
As always, the most furious free agent period is in August, but throughout the fall we still saw some pretty important signings, and we also started to see some trade action as teams started assessing their draft position, their need list, and their chances of solving their issues with the draft. So, moves were made throughout the fall. Here are the moves made before the typical late November lull around Thanksgiving.
Oct. 20
TRADE: Baltimore Acquires TE C. J. Uzomah from the Skyhawks
With the retirement of Antonio Gates, Baltimore had the tight end position near the top of their priority board. With Rob Gronkowski the starter and a need for more cap space, St. Louis could not pass up the offer from the Blitz. 3rd year TE C. J. Ozumah would be in Baltimore and St. Louis would obtain much needed line help in center Rudy Niswanger, at barely half the cost of their TE.
Oct. 27
FREE AGENCY: Breakers Add Edge Help with Mosely
C. J. Mosely had rejected a 1-year deal to stay in San Diego, having been traded from Seattle midseason. He accepted New Orleans’s deal, also for 1 year, and now finds himself on a 4th team in 4 years. At 33 years old, New Orleans could try to lock him in for another year or two if his production continues to be strong. He had 11 sacks his final year in Atlanta, 9 in 2015 with Seattle, and 7 between the Dragons and Thunder last year. In New Orleans, he will likely rotate with Cameron Jordan or sub for another veteran, Ty Warren.
November 1
TRADE: St. Louis Lands WR Allen Robinson
The Skyhawks continue to try to address the departure of Jordy Nelson. While Eric Weems and David Nelson are the two likely starters, the deal with Philadelphia that sent a 4th round pick to the Stars gives St. Louis a 3rd option outside (we assume that NFL import Terrance Williams will play the slot.) More weapons for Josh Freeman and whoever St. Louis settles on as their new head coach.
November 4
FREE AGENCY: Dallas Adds to D with Barwin Addition
A nice addition to the Roughneck defense as Machine 2016 rookie Connor Barwin, cut inexplicably by Lovie Smith, signs on with Dallas. Barwin had 5 sacks as a rookie, but rumors of animosity with Lovie Smith apparently were well-founded as the 1st year Chicago coach cut him in mid-September. Hopefully Mike Sherman and he can develop a rapport, because as of right now he is the prime candidate to be the starting Right End.
November 11
TRADE: Atlanta Jettisons Kyle Orton
We had a feeling that Atlanta would make some QB moves as they pursued Eli Manning. One way or another they were not going to return to Kyle Orton as their starter. So, they needed to find a buyer who saw Orton as a strong backup, a potential starter in the case of injury, or a “push” to their starter. They found that buyer in Memphis. Once it was clear that the Showboats were not able to resign Eli Manning, and had only 2nd year QB Paxton Lynch on the roster (no 2nd or 3rd QB), they knew they needed a solid number two, and someone they could trust if Lynch flamed out. Orton was a solid choice, and the price (a 4th rounder this year and another in 2018) was right. So, Orton will now be in Memphis, almost certainly as the backup to Lynch, but with some possibility of getting the job if the rookie struggles.
November 15
FREE AGENCY: Atlanta Signs Roy Williams to Lure Manning
Williams was the last of the big name receivers to find a home. After a very strong 2016, Williams was asking a ransom to sign, and, quite frankly, no one was buying. With Jordy Nelson now in New Orleans, Keenan Allen in DC, Kelvin Benjamin in Denver, and even Percy Harvin signed to a nice deal with the Outlaws, Williams had to readjust his sites. When Atlanta offered the chance to come in as a starter, a 3-year deal at competitive rates along the lines of Benjamin’s deal with the Gold, Williams could no longer hold out for more. So, the upside for Atlanta, they now had a WR to lure Eli Manning with. The downside, he was coming to the Fire with marginal enthusiasm and a bit of a chip on his shoulder.
Thanksgiving to Draft Week
December and early January tend to be a time with very few free agent signings, though we did get two surprise ones towards right before the draft, including one retired player who rescinded his decision to hang up the cleats. We also saw the first pre-draft shuffling of picks and territorial rights. Here is the breakdown of the major moves made prior to the opening day of the T-Draft.
Dec. 3
FREE AGENCY: Vipers Sign Incognito to Improve O-Line
One of the few “big name” veterans left in the free agent pool, well, of those under the age of 35, Incognito was a solid player in Baltimore after having some issues (largely tied to his behavior and taunting of teammates) in Ohio. Las Vegas saw in incognito a chance to upgrade at Center, with the option to play him at right tackle if needed, and with their goal to sign Eli Manning, having a stronger line made sense. And so a 2-year deal was cut.
Dec. 10
TRADE: Fire Seek insurance with UGA Fan Favorite
Having sent Kyle Orton to Memphis before Turkey Day, the Fire bought themselves some insurance in case they lost out in the Manning Sweepstakes (which now looks wise, since they did). In a player-for-player swap, Atlanta sent HB Raymond Williams, mostly a special teams contributor, to the LA Express, along with a 6th round pick in this year’s draft, to acquire former UGA star Aaron Murray. Murray started for portions of 2 years with the Express, before being benched for Sam Bradford this past season. His numbers were not great: A combined 74.3 QB Rating, 12 total TDs and 14 picks. But, if there is one fanbase that would be happy to have Murray on the team and even under center, it would be Atlanta. After all he did as a Bulldog, he gets a lot of leeway as a pro, at least that is the theory.
Dec. 11
FREE AGENCY: Veteran K Dan Carpenter Finds a Home
Not willing to wait until draft day, or to go with an untested rookie, the Portland Stags signed veteran kicker Dan Carpenter to a 2-year deal. Carpenter, who spent the last 9 seasons as a member of the Houston Gamblers, comes to Portland with a lifetime field goal percentage of 80.1%, though he is an impressive 15 of 27 beyond 50 yards and nearly perfect inside of 40. In rainy Portland, consistency and a strong leg are certainly necessary.
Dec. 15:
FREE AGENCY: Manning Makes it Official
Eli Manning announced that he had signed a deal to join the Las Vegas Vipers. This officially ended the sweepstakes and the chase for the veteran QB. Las Vegas would have the answer to their “who follows Cody Pickett” question. The other teams would be on to Plan B. For Atlanta that means either Aaron Murray or Brad Gradkowski, though a rookie could still be in the offing. For Ohio it seems certain that Hackenberg is their starter. In Memphis, the trade for Kyle Orton provided backup for Paxton Lynch, and in both St. Louis and Philadelphia the status quo (Freeman and Gutierrez) seem to be the order of the day. -
Dec. 17
FREE AGENCY: LB Terrell Suggs Unretires to Join Skyhawks
When we saw it come across the wire, we were shocked. Terrell Suggs had announced his intention to retire at the end of 2016, had done the press conference as so many do, and had thanked the Stars for the past 3 years. Suggs had played well as a member of the Stars, racking up nearly 280 tackles and 26 sacks in his 3 seasons there, but at 35 it was time to let the game go. Or so we thought. Apparently, there was something offered by the Skyhawks that made Suggs rethink that decision. He had not yet filed his paperwork, so he was within his rights to sign on with another team, though we expect the league will look into the deal and may well penalize St. Louis a draft pick to the Stars if any improprieties are found. But, in the meantime, the Skyhawks get a very effective edge rusher, at least for the short haul.
Jan. 2
TRADE: First Draft Board Trade Gives LA a Shot at Garrett
We had a feeling that once we got into the new year we would start seeing deals being made, particularly for Territorial Draft picks. It was no secret that Houston was hoping to shop around at least one of their 3 protected player slots. They had no interest in Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes, and only marginal focus on Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett. The Express were just the first club to make a sweet-enough deal to Houston. The Express will get the Gamblers’ 1st T-Draft pick, which is almost certainly going to be Garrett. In return, Houston will get a second pick in the first round. LA’s 23rd pick is now Houston’s, giving the Gamblers back-to-back picks at 23 and 24. Will they now trade these two picks to get much higher in the round, or will they just address two priorities in round one?
Jan 6
FREE AGENCY: Ohio Throws a Hail Mary, Signs Tim Tebow.
Ohio dropped out of the Manning Sweepstakes pretty early, apparently sensing that there was little they could offer outside of a stake in the team that would attract Manning to Columbus. So, what do they do? They still have Brock Osweiler on the roster, but the expectation is that they will move ahead with Christian Hackenberg as their starter. We honestly did not expect them to make a move on a 3rd quarterback, much less this move. After five very up-and-down seasons in Jacksonville as the starter, a failed relocation to LA with the Express, and, quite frankly a bad experience in only 8 games with the New York Jets, Tebow is now back in the USFL. He signed a 1-year deal with Ohio, still listed as a quarterback, but honestly we are not sure what Coach Coughlin plans to do with him. It is not as if Coughlin is known as an innovative offensive mind, but perhaps there is a plan here. It likely has nothing to do with starting games, but could be some form of Wild Cat formation. Your guess is as good as ours.
Jan 8
TRADE: Houston Uses 2nd Rounder to Get Seattle T-Draft Spot
The Houston Gamblers, now holding 2 first round picks, decided that their 2nd rounder would be better used as trade bait to get them a player they covet. They offered the pick to Seattle for the 2nd of 3 T-Draft picks the Dragons hold. It is a very unusual deal. Normally when a team trades into the T-Draft they do so to acquire the first pick, guaranteeing that they get to choose the player they want. In this case, Seattle will pick one player ahead of Houston’s pick, and the Gamblers have to hope they don’t go rogue and pick the player Houston is seeking to acquire. We expect the two GM’s have been in touch and there is an understanding, but it is still a weird deal. So, who could Houston be going after. There are two likely candidates, almost certainly representing Seattle’s 1st pick and then Houston’s 2nd. Washington WR John Ross could be a target for either club, but we think Seattle is very interested in him, so who is 2nd? That is almost certainly Huskie safety Budda Baker, an instinctive ballhawk of a safety who has likely caught the eye of Houston Head Coach Wade Phillips, a former DC.
Jan 8
TRADE: Stars Trade for Rights to DeShaun Watson
And now the QB Derby starts. No doubt what this is about. Philadelphia sends the Bulls their Bulls their 1st round pick, number 15 overall for the Bulls’ first T-Draft pick. This has to be a play for QB DeShaun Watson. It is an interesting choice for Coach Harbaugh, who has never shown a propensity towards running QB’s, but it seems that Watson’s combination of arm strength and athleticism is too enticing for Harbaugh to stay out of the running. We would know for sure in under a week, but it would have shocked everyone had the Stars use this pick on anyone else.
The Territorial Draft
The T-Draft is something of an odd beast. There is no live draft, unlike the USFL Open Draft and the NFL College Draft, only teams calling in their picks to New York on a conference call. In most cases it is an easy listing of three names, not much drama and not much excitement. When a pick has been traded it slows things down a bit, but there is no real competition, so one team’s pick does not impact any other team’s choices. That evening EFN, the ESPN Football Network, dedicates an hour to presenting the picks, interviewing some of the chosen college players, and analyzing which teams might have found a key piece of their puzzle. Most players get a phone call that day, others know days or even weeks ahead. Occasionally we get a signing announcement that day, but usually 2-3 days later is the first really big announcement. Mostly it is a wait and see, because most players with any hopes for a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round grade in the NFL draft want to wait and see where they go when the fall league holds their draft. So, we will report the names here, but don’t get too excited. If any of the players have signed, we will report that below in our post-draft recap. These are just selections, not signings, so take them with a grain of salt, ok, people.
ARIZONA: WR Cooper Kupp (EWU), LB Samson Ebukam (EWU), P Matt Haack (ASU)
Had the league not allowed Arizona to add a 4th school (EWU), they might have had a very hard time finding 3 players to pick.
ATLANTA: DE Dylan Donahue (W. Ga), WR R. Davis (Ga St.), TE Mo Alie-Cox (VCU)
Atlanta also needed additional teams added with almost no Georgia or Georgia Tech players in this year’s draft.
BALTIMORE: TE Michael Roberts (Toledo), OT Storm Norton (Toledo), LS Thomas Hennessey (Duke). No Maryland players this year and a very obvious “middle round” strategy used by Baltimore to maximize signability.
BIRMINGHAM: LB Reuben Foster (Bama), OT Cam Robinson (Bama), DT Montravious Adams (Bama). Is having Alabama as one of three schools just an unfair advantage? And if so, why is Birmingham not a dominant franchise in the league?
CHARLOTTE: QB Mitchell Trubisky (UNC), WR Mack Hollins (UNC), HB Elijah Hood (UNC)
No surprise, the Monarchs have been obsessed with Trubisky all fall and pick his favorite WR as enticement to stay in Carolina.
CHICAGO: WR Kenny Golloday (UNI), DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (NWestern), LB Joseph Jones (NWestern). Getting Northern Illinois added because of weak numbers from Notre Dame and Illinois may just land Chicago a solid receiver.
DALLAS: HB D’Onte Freeman (Texas), WR Chad Williams (Grambling), HB Aaron Jones (UTEP), Dallas doubles down on halfbacks, hoping to land one, if they cannot get both.
DENVER: CB Chidobe Awuzie (Colo), S Tedrick Thompson (Colo), S Nathan Gerry (Nebr)
It is a rare year that Denver does not protect at least one offensive lineman between the Cornhuskers and the Buffs, but there just was not one available this year.
HOUSTON: (1st pick traded to LA), WR Josh Reynolds (A&M), S Budda Baker (Seattle’s 2nd Pick), TE Ricky Seals-Jones (A&M). As expected, Houston uses their pick from Seattle on safety Budda Baker, but we also like the Reynolds pick as they try to add depth to their receiver group behind Mike Evans.
JACKSONVILLE: (1st pick traded to PHI), WR Mike Williams (Clemson), LB Alex Anzelone (Florida). The Bulls opt out of Deshaun Watson, sending Philly the pick but we like the two players they selected. Now, can they sign them?
LAS VEGAS: HB Joe Williams (Utah), G Isaac Asiata (Utah), WR Tim Patrick (Utah)
Three offensive players to help out Manning in his first year. Patrick is a straight-line speedster, not exactly what Manning loves, but always good to have.
LOS ANGELES: DE Myles Garrett (A&M—Houston 1st pick), CB Adoree Jackson (USC), G Zach Banner (USC), DT Stevie Tu’ikolovatu (USC). The Express pick Garrett, as planned, and then go USC with three straight picks.
MEMPHIS: DE Derek Barnett (Tenn), CB Cameron Sutton (Tenn), QB Joshua Dobbs (Tenn)
For us the most interesting pick here is Dobbs, who is clearly a project player, but a possible wildcat QB if that is what Memphis wants.
MICHIGAN: S Jabril Peppers (Mich), CB Jourdan Lewis (Mich), TE Jake Butt (Mich)
A bad year for the Spartans, but plenty of Wolverines to choose from.
NEW JERSEY: LB T. J. Watt (Wisc), LB Matt Milano (BC), HB Corey Clement (Wisc)
No way could the Generals pass up on Watt, but doubling down with Milano may be smart, because the NFL is certainly going to woo J. J. Watt’s brother very hard.
NEW ORLEANS: HB Leonard Fournette (LSU), CB Tra’Davous White (LSU), QB Chad Kelly (Ole Miss). Fournette was a no-brainer. White is a very polished corner, and then they go for a longshot, the nephew of USFL legend Jim Kelly, but a bit of a loose cannon at Ole Miss.
OAKLAND: HB Christian McCaffrey (Stanf), QB Davis Webb (Cal), WR Chad Hensen (Cal)
We did not think Oakland would pursue McCaffrey, but they picked him. He could be a huge help to a team that lost a lot of offensive pieces this offseason, if they can woo him away from the NFL.
OHIO: CB Marshon Lattimore (OSU), WR Curtis Samuel (OSU), LB Eric Wilson (OSU)
Ohio was always going to pick Samuel, so using the first pick on Lattimore was a surprise but possibly done to keep him out of the Open Draft and away from Michigan or St. Louis.
OKLAHOMA: DE Jordan Willis (K State), WR Dede Westbrook (OU), DT Vincent Taylor (OSU)
The Outlaws pick one Sooner and one Poke, trying to balance the fan allegiances in their new home.
ORLANDO: TE David Njoku (Miami), S Rayshawn Jenkins (Miami), WR Stacy Coley (Miami)
We love the Njoku pick, but are a bit mystified by Coley, who grades out as a late round option. Maybe a special teams role for him? We just don’t know.
PHILADELPHIA: QB DeShaun Watson (1st pick from JAX), LB Haason Reddick (Temple), G Dion Dawkins (Temple), QB P. J. Walker (Temple). The Stars’ T-Draft is fascinating. If Matt Gutierrez is not insulted by the Stars trading to select Watson, the pick of Walker from Temple has to sting even more.
PITTSBURGH: CB Rasul Douglas (WVU), QB Nate Peterman (Pitt), OT Adam Bisnowaty (Pitt)
Douglas is a solid pick, Peterman a hometown hero who will be a popular clipboard holder behind Dalton. Many, including the player himself, thought they would surely go after Pitt HB John Conner, but they passed on the back and took his QB instead.
PORTLAND: C Sean Harlow (Ore St), HB Jeremy McNichols (Boise), TE Pharaoh Brown (Oregon). Not a great year for the Ducks, but some decent talent between the Beavers and Broncos for Portland to choose.
SAN DIEGO: DE Takkarist McKinley (UCLA), DT Eddie Vanderdoes (UCLA), CB Damontae Kazee (SDSU). We think San Diego wins the All-Name team, between Takkarist, Vanderdoes, and Damontae Kazee. But can they play?
SEATTLE: WR John Ross (Wash), (2nd pick sent to Houston), DT Elijah Qualls (Wash)
Ross was a given. They sent their pick to Houston for Baker and then went interior D-line with a big space-eater in Qualls.
ST. LOUIS: DE Charles Harris (Mizzou), TE George Kittle (Iowa), DT Jaleel Johnson (Iowa)
With Uzomah traded away, it makes perfect sense that the Skyhawks would select Kittle, a gifted receiver at the TE position who can develop behind Gronkowski if he comes to the USFL.
TAMPA BAY: HB Dalvin Cook (FSU), DE DeMarcus Walker (FSU), OT Kofi Amichia (USF)
The Bandits have had Cook’s name circled on their “must have” board for a while now. Expect them to throw top dollar at the FSU back.
WASHINGTON: LB Zach Cunningham (Vandy), TE Bucky Hodges (Va Tech), WR Isaiah Ford (Va Tech). Not a great draft crop for potential impact players, but for depth, yes, we get it.
The Open Draft—Day 1
The Draft opens with a 2-round first day. We are going to focus on Round 1, which is always where the excitement lives. We know from history that the signing rate of these players is roughly 45%, with the NFL getting more of their Day 1 picks than the USFL does, and the USFL catching up to generally equalize the balance in the later rounds. We also know that about half, if not more, of the players taken in the NFL first round will already be off the board for the USFL Open Draft thanks to the T-Draft. So, even the 1st round of the USFL Draft tends to combine 1st, 2nd, even 3rd round NFL picks as teams try to select the player who is not only left over after the T-Draft, but at least open to a USFL contract.
As always, we will follow the 1st round in the order of the selections. This year saw far fewer trades involving 1st round picks, and none in the opening 10 picks, so it is a very straightforward draft. We will also identify which NFL team picked the players, and where, in the NFL Draft 8 days later.
Rnd 1 Pick 1 STL WR Corey Davis (WMU) (Copperheads-Pick 5)
Rnd 1 Pick 2 SEA DE Soloman Thomas (Stanf) (49ers-Pick 3)
Rnd 1 Pick 3 TBY QB Patrick Mahomes (TX Tch) (Chiefs-Pick 10)
Rnd 1 Pick 4 ATL QB Deshone Kizer (N Dame) (Browns-Pick 52)
Rnd 1 Pick 5 POR S Malik Hooker (Ohio St) (Colts-Pick 15)
Rnd 1 Pick 6 JAX HB Joe Mixon (OU) (Bengals-Pick 48)
Rnd 1 Pick 7 LV OG Forrest Lamp (WKU) (Chargers-Pick 38)
Rnd 1 Pick 8 BIR CB Marlon Humphrey (Bama) (Ravens-Pick 16)
Rnd 1 Pick 9 DAL S Jamal Adams (LSU) (Jets-Pick 6)
Rnd 1 Pick 10 PIT DE Jonathan Allen (Bama) (Redskins-Pick 17)
Rnd 1 Pick 11 OHI TE Evan Engram (Ole Miss) (Giants-Pick 23)
Rnd 1 Pick 12 WSH OG Taylor Moton (WMU) (Panthers-Pick 64)
Rnd 1 Pick 13 CHA HB Alvin Kamara (Tenn) (Saints-Pick 67)
Rnd 1 Pick 14 DEN LB Jarrad Davis (Florida) (Lions-Pick 21)
Rnd 1 Pick 15 JAX TE O. J. Howard (Bama) (Bucs-Pick 19) Trade-PHI
Rnd 1 Pick 16 OKL DE Taco Charlton (Mich) (Cowboys-Pick 28)
Rnd 1 Pick 17 OAK TE Gerald Everett (So. Ala) (Rams-Pick 44)
Rnd 1 Pick 18 BAL OT Garrett Bolles (Utah) (Broncos-Pick 20)
Rnd 1 Pick 19 NOR LB Tim Williams (Bama) (Ravens-Pick 78)
Rnd 1 Pick 20 NJ WR Zay Jones (ECU) (Bills-Pick 37) Trade-MGN
Rnd 1 Pick 21 SD OT Antonio Garcia (Troy) (Patriots-Pick 85)
Rnd 1 Pick 22 ORL S Marcus Maye (Florida) (Jets-Pick 39)
Rnd 1 Pick 23 HOU WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (USC) (Steelers-Pick 62) Trade-LA
Rnd 1 Pick 24 HOU S Marcus Williams (Utah) (Saints-Pick 42)
Rnd 1 Pick 25 CHI C Ethan Pocic (LSU) (Seahawks-Pick 58)
Rnd1 Pick 26 MGN TE Jonnu Smith (FIU) (Copperheads-Pick 100)
Rnd 1 Pick 27 MEM OT Ryan Ramczyk (Wisc) (Saints-Pick 32)
Rnd 1 Pick 28 ARZ WR Taywan Taylor (WKU) (Copperheads-Pick 72)
Ok, first, let’s explain the font choices. Green font means that the player chosen by the USFL club was also a first round NFL pick, but that the USFL team picked the player with a higher choice (Davis going first to St. Louis in the USFL but 5th to Tennessee in the NFL Draft). These are players who may see the higher selection by the USFL in a positive light, and if the deal looks good, they could be more likely to take the USFL offer.
Players in blue (only Jamal Adams) are players also taken in the first round by the NFL, but the NFL selection is higher, which often means the NFL team has the edge unless the USFL team is willing to overspend.
Picks in black font are players taken in the NFL second round. Players in red might be USFL reaches. These are players selected as 1st round choices in the USFL draft but were not taken until the 3rd round or later in the NFL Draft. The USFL teams may well be hoping that by picking a 3rd round talent this early, they get a clear upper hand in signing them. It does not work 100% of the time, but the odds are good, the problem is that you are looking at what may actually be 3rd round talent, so you miss out on a potential impact player to have a better shot at signing a contributing player, but maybe not a star.
OK, a few thoughts before we move on to Rounds 2-7.
We were not surprised to see Tampa Bay go after Mahomes. His slide to 10th in the NFL Draft could be a good sign that he is amenable to the Bandits’ situation. We are not at all sure why Atlanta used a 1st round pick on Kizer, who was clearly graded 2nd-3rd round, but they are somewhat in dire straits and perhaps simply could not wait and take the chance. Jacksonville may have stretched a bit to take OU’s Joe Mixon in the top 10, but we love how they rebounded, using the pick they got from Philadelphia for the T-Draft rights to Deshaun Watson to select Alabama TE O. J. Howard. He will be a huge help to Robert Griffin III (if he signs). The biggest reach of the draft has to be Charlotte, going for a 3rd round halfback midway through the first round, but it is only a reach if he does not pan out. Obviously, all the teams in red made reaches, but if they work out, then perhaps we just call it shrewd scouting.
The biggest drop of the day was clearly WR Zay Jones, who we had predicted as a Top 10, maybe Top 5 pick, but that was before the T-Draft and our true sense of which top prospects would be available in the Open Draft. That said, Jones was not expecting to be on the board as late as pick 20, but since he was not selected by the NFL Bills until the early 2nd round, he really cannot be too upset that he was a late 1st round USFL pick. A player who could perhaps be upset is HB John Conner from Pitt, who both expected to be picked by the Maulers in the T-Draft, but then also felt confident he would be a 1st round pick in the USFL draft. He was chosen late in the 2nd round by the Chicago Machine, and not until the 3rd round by the NFL Steelers, so again, maybe his expectations were a bit out of synch with what scouts were seeing in him.
The Open Draft—Day 2
Day two saw the final 5 rounds of the Open Draft, and, as we all know, that is where rosters are really built, finding depth, discovering underrated players who blossom into major contributors, even just filling in key positions, or setting up your special teams for success. We focused our Day 1 review on the first round of the draft. For our day two recap, we have selected 15 players selected in rounds 2-7 who we believe could be valuable additions to their clubs. As always, the caveat that many of these players were later also selected in the NFL Draft and that there is a good chance that many will find their way to the fall league instead of the USFL, but we always discuss the prospects in relation to the USFL team that drafted them, and we will do that here. So, our 15 potential impact players from rounds 2-7.
CB Shaquille Griffin (Round 2-Atlanta)
The UCF cornerback has good instincts and recovery speed, will need time to adapt to the pro game, but could start out in the nickel spot before hopefully becoming a starter.
HB Samaje Perine (Round 2-Dallas)
Very often teams double down on a key position, drafting two players at the same key spot in the hopes that they will be able to land their first choice, but with the option for a second player if that does not work out. In selecting Perine in the 2nd round, Dallas triple-downed at a position they absolutely have to fill. After selecting D’onte Foreman and Aaron Jones in the T-Draft, they pick Perine in the Open Draft to ensure they will have a young tailback in the fold come March.
LB Trey Hendrickson (Round 2-St. Louis)
FAU may be a smallish, and somewhat unheralded program, but Hendrickson shone on the field for the Owls. If he comes to St. Louis he will very likely have a shot at making the starting lineup with a Skyhawk defense that could certainly use his skillset.
WR Chris Godwin (Round 3-Portland)
We are honestly a bit surprised that Penn State’s Godwin dropped to the 3rd round in both the USFL and NFL draft. He has strong hands, runs good routes, and while not a speedster, is certainly fast enough to get open.
QB Taysom Hill (Round 4-Jacksonville)
Hill is not projecting as a pro QB, but could be something of a “Slash” player as Kordell Stewart was in the NFL or Antwan Randle-El was in the USFL. Jacksonville may have him work in Wildcat formations, as a tailback, tight end, possibly a receiver. There are lots of options if Hill himself is open to taking on a Swiss army knife role.
QB Nick Mullens (Round 4-Los Angeles)
The Southern Miss QB is a bit raw, but he has the build and arm strength to play the position. In LA he will get the chance to model his game after Sam Bradford’s, which is a good parallel for his body type and skills. We may not see him on the field much in early years, but Coach Reid could see him as a long term project that will eventually pay dividends.
HB Marion Mack (Round 5-Ohio)
Mack is a bulldozer of a back. He honestly could convert to fullback, but as a tailback he could, and likely should be used for short yardage, goalline, and end of game wearing down of defenses. In Ohio he would be a good sub for Isaiah Pead, who has been doing it all for the Glory, helping to minimize the wear and tear on Pead over the season.
HB Donnel Pumphrey (Round 5-LA)
We see the San Diego State product as a 3rd down back, return man, and a good backup for Reggie Bush. Pumphrey’s style is something of a poor man’s Reggie Bush, so the playcalling and uses for him in LA are pretty well aligned with the offense already in place. A case of a square peg aligning with a square hole.
DE Avery Moss (Round 6-Ohio)
Like the Express, the Glory are doing very well in the later rounds. Moss, a beast at Youngstown State, will need time to adjust to the speed and size of the pro game, but he possesses excellent first step burst and uses his hands well to shift his opponents out of position.
DT D. J. Jones (Round 6-Birmingham)
After 3 seasons of SEC slog, Jones has about as solid a training for the pro game as any lineman could. He is not the biggest D-tackle in the draft, and he has, at times, taken plays off, which will have to change, but he has the potential to develop into a steady interior run-stuffer.
FB Sam Rogers (Round 7-Washington)
The late rounds is where most fullbacks seem to end up. It is just not a position that gets enough focus, attention, or respect, and with more teams using spread offenses, it also does not get as many snaps as it used to. Washington gets a good one in Va Tech’s Rogers, and he gets a team that is dedicated to a 2-back, power run game.
K Harrison Butker (Round 7-Tampa Bay)
The later rounds also tend to be when the kicking specialists get chosen, if at all, and Butker is the first of 2 kickers we think will end up making their team if they sign on. At Georgia Tech, Butker was effective from within 45, but also has, on occasion, shown a powerful leg, so it will be up to the Bandits to get him to connect on deeper kicks.
QB Cooper Rush (Round 7-Michigan)
Very much as we said with Mullens in LA, this is a case of finding a later round QB whose style matches well with the team’s starter. Cooper Rush, out of Central Michigan, has had plenty of time to watch and model his style after Kurt Cousins, and comes to the Panthers where he can continue to grow in that mold. That is a good option for a 2nd or 3rd string QB, to have someone who can emulate the starter.
HB Austin Ekeler (Round 7-St. Louis)
The Skyhawks get their 2nd call out with the diminutive but high motor tailback out of Western State (a school we had to look up because we had no idea where it is. It’s in Colorado). Expect to see him as a special teams player at first, but he has some physical attributes that could translate well into the pro game, and he is all effort, which is great in the clubhouse.
K Younghou Koo (Round 7-Houston)
With Dan Carpenter now in Portland, Houston needed a kicker, and they found a good one at the end of the 7th round in Georgia Southern’s Koo. We will have to see how Koo’s experience at an FCS school prepared him for the pressures of making game-impacting kicks at the pro level, but we expect the rookie to be the starting kicker come March.
Draft Day until Today: The Signing Period
With the draft complete, the important work of turning selections into signings began. As expected a few of the T-Draft players were ready to go on day one, while most players, especially those looking at 1st-3rd round status in the NFL Draft were in no rush. With 2 weeks behind us since the draft, and less than a full week since the NFL Draft concluded, most players have yet to sign, however, we do have a few newly-minted USFL contracts to report on, and a couple of moves that occurred as a result as well. Here is our quick summation of the last 2 weeks.
January 19
SIGNING: Only 2 days after the Open Draft, Deshone Kizer signs with the Atlanta Fire. Kizer chose the USFL Fire over the NFL Browns, in part because of the presence of Head Coach Bruce Arians, and in part because, let’s be honest, Cleveland has gotten a reputation as a QB graveyard. The deal is reported to be for 4 years and will create a 4-player cluster at the position along with former Express starter Aaron Murray, and 2016 backup Brad Gradkowski and the recently acquired Tajh Boyd.
January 20
SIGNING: Memphis 1st round (Open Draft) pick Ryan Ramczyck becomes the first NFL first rounder to opt for the USFL, signing a 3-year deal to play for the Showboats.
January 20
TRADE: With the Bandits unable to secure guard help in the draft, they make a deal to acquire Daniel Bruskill from the Chicago Machine, sending HB James Wilder Jr to Chicago.
January 22
SIGNING: The first high round T-Draft selection signs with the USFL as Wolverine safety Jabril Peppers chooses to join the Michigan Panthers.
January 23
SIGNING: A day after Peppers signs on in Michigan, New Orleans gets a major coup, with the signing of LSU halfback Leonard Fournette. Fournette was the 4th overall player taken by the NFL, a very high pick for a quick USFL jump, but the LSU product now gets to stay in the state and, by all accounts, gets a very competitive 3-year deal to do so.
January 25
TRADE: Washington, having not drafted a halfback to replace Deuce McCalister, finds their solution at tailback, cutting a deal with the Oakland Invaders to send Donald Brown to the Federals in trade for DE David Bass and future draft picks. Brown, who rushed for 910 yards and 8 touchdowns as part of a tandem with Knile Davis in Oakland now becomes a clear lead back in Washington. Rumors fly that the willingness of the Invaders to trade Brown comes with good news about surprise T-Draft selection, Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey.
January 28
TRADE: Charlotte trades 2016 starting QB Brandon Wheedon to the Dallas Roughnecks for a 3rd rounder in 2018 and a conditional pick in 2019. This almost certainly guarantees that the Monarchs have UNC QB Mitch Trubisky signed and ready to announce that he will join the USFL and not the NFL Chicago Bears.
January 30
SIGNING: As many suspected, 2 days after trading Brandon Wheedon, the Charlotte Monarchs present Mitch Trubisky as the newest member of the team. The UNC quarterback agrees to a 4-year deal with a 5th year option and could well start the season as the number 1 QB, ahead of veteran backup Tyler Thigpen.
February 2
SIGNINGS: The Trubisky deal seems to have broken the wall, as several top picks from both drafts make their decisions and sign on the dotted line. Coming to the USFL are LB Haasan Reddick (PHI), TE O. J. Howard (ATL), CB Tra’Davious White (NOR), OT Cam Robinson (BIR), and WR Curtis Samuel (OHI).
NFL clubs get deals signed for the following USFL picks: DE Myles Garrett (LA), CB Marshon Lattimore (OHI), HB Joe Mixon (OKL), HB Kareem Hunt (CHA), and DE Solomon Thomas (SEA). The two remaining high-grade QB prospects, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson remain uncommitted.
February 4
TRADE: Failing to sign 1st round pick Solomon Thomas, Seattle makes a deal with the Philadelphia Stars to acquire some edge rush help. The Stars send Muhammad Wilkerson to the Dragons in exchange for a 4th round pick in 2018. Wilkerson had been bumped out of a starting job in Philadelphia by the arrival of Malik Jackson, limited to only 5 sacks as a swing DE in 2016. Wilkerson will now rotate with Deshon Hall opposite Travis LaBoy in Seattle.
February 6
SIGNINGS: We get our next QB decision along with several other early selection decisions. Patrick Mahomes opts not to join the Tampa Bay Bandits, leaving the USFL club with a major issue at QB, signing a 4-year deal with Kansas City of the NFL, despite Alex Smith having a strong 2016 campaign with the Chiefs. The decision means that at present Dak Prescott and Pat White remain the two primary QB options in Tampa Bay.
Other signings on the day include, for the USFL, WR Mike Williams (JAX), WR John Ross (SEA), DE Charles Harris (STL), DE Takkarist McKinley (SD), and TE David Njoku (ORL), and for the NFL—with USFL pick indicated, WR Corey Davis (STL), DE Derek Barnett (MEM), DE Jonathan Allen (PIT), LB T. J. Watt (NJ), and OT Garrett Bolles (MEM).
And that brings us to today, with many players still out there, including Deshaun Watson, claimed by both the Philadelphia Stars and the Houston Oilers, and Stanford HB Christian McCaffrey, drafted by two local clubs, the San Francisco 49ers and the Oakland Invaders. We expect to hear news on both in the upcoming days, and will report on all the USFL and NFL signings in our preseason edition.
The Upcoming NFL-USFL Transfer Window
We finish our second offseason report with a look at the upcoming NFL-USFL Transfer Window and the players who could be at the top of everyone’s list. As is typical, the USFL pool at this time is quite limited, while the NFL pool is significantly larger, with NFL free agency starting only a week ago. We will cover this in two ways, first by looking at the top free agents in both leagues, and then with a quick rundown of the USFL teams that have glaring needs yet to be filled, with a possible NFL import their best chance to find a match. We start with the USFL veterans still unsigned at this time:
SS Darren Sharper: A bit of a surprise, at only 34, he could still be a valuable addition.
FB Rick Razzano: A solid player at an undervalued position.
FS Mike Doss: A member of the Breakers’ title-winning defense looking for a home.
LB Ernie Sims: The former Stallions could be NFL bound.
DT John McCargo: Knee issues have added questions to his potential signing.
DT Tommy Harris: Ohio would love to resign him, but not at his asking price.
C Andre Gurode: Injuries and age are a concern for the veteran pivot.
TE Ben Hartsook: Did not want to return to Atlanta, but has yet to find a new home.
HB Chris Johnson: His half-year stint with Tampa Bay was unimpressive.
HB LeMichael James: Has bounced around several teams in recent years.
CB Morris Claiborne: Federals tired of frequent blown coverages.
HB Steven Ridley: A solid bit player, but not a primary back.
CB Asante Samuel: Turns 35 in 3 weeks, and has lost a step.
While the USFL pool has only a few players that may pique NFL interest, the NFL pool is more robust and could provide some late-offseason support to a USFL team in need. Here are our picks for the 20 best prospects in the NFL free agent pool at this time:
CB Stephon Gilmore: Very strong in man coverage. The gem of this pool for sure.
OT Luke Joeckel: A Number one overall pick and starting LT for the Jaguars.
DE Andre Branch: 5.5 Sacks in 2016, but with potential for more.
G Ron Leary: Perhaps the best interior lineman in a pretty shallow pool.
QB E. J. Manuel: A 1st round QB pick by the Bills who has yet to reach his potential.
DT Stefan Charles: A solid run stuffer who can take on double teams.
QB Blaine Gabbert: Another 1st round pick, though he has struggled in the NFL.
S Rafael Bush: A very solid safety who can play either position.
TE Martellus Bennett: A solid pass catcher and decent blocker.
HB Christine Michael: Had 7 TDs and over 500 yards with the Seahawks in 2016.
K Robbie Gould: With several teams trying out kickers, this veteran could be a find.
S Terrance Newman: Former Cowboy & Bengal hoping for maybe 1-2 more years.
QB Geno Smith: The former Jet is looking to rehab his image with a new team.
LB Nick Perry: Had over 50 tackles and 11 sacks for the Packers last year.
DE Darryl Tapp: A savvy veteran but coming to the end of his career.
CB T. J. McDonald: Good in zone, and a potential nickel back.
LB Lawrence Timmons: A 10-year vet with the Steelers, likely looking for 1-2 more years.
QB Mike Glennon: Has looked good in limited action. Could develop into a starter.
CB Asa Jackson: After 3 separate stints in Baltimore, a journeyman with some skills.
DT Corbin Bryant: A former Bear, Steeler and Bill reserve, looking for a shot to start.
So, who may be in the market for one of these NFL free agents? The Transfer Window is unpredictable, but there are a few teams who come to mind as needing some last minute support. Here is our pick of the five teams most likely to be taking a long look at the players listed above.
Tampa Bay—Looking for a QB
Losing out to the NFL on Patrick Mahomes leaves Tampa Bay with a very tenuous situation. They have both their 2016 starter and the 2016 rookie who took over and finished out the season in Pat White and Dak Prescott, but fans want another option, and we suspect that new Head Coach June Jones would also like one. Gabbert and Manuel seem the most likely potential targets, though both come in as damaged goods after rough starts to their pro careers.
OHIO—Needs a Kicker
The Glory are the only kickerless team that did not draft a rookie kicker. There are several USFL free agents still out there at that position, but none of them have the leg that Robbie Gould of the Bears has. Ohio should jump at the chance to land Gould before another NFL club does.
DALLAS—Lots of Defensive Needs
The Roughnecks’ defense was just plain rough last year, and they lost a ton of starters in free agency, so Dallas would be wise to look up and down the free agent list of the NFL and see if they can bring in some new blood. They are still strong on the cap, so they have funds to do so.
WASHINGTON—Veteran Safety Help Needed
We see no better matchup of need and talent than safety Rafael Bush to the Federals. They need some veteran presence back there and Bush would be an ideal fit.
ST. LOUIS—Any Help is Welcome
The Skyhawks are another team whose defense just does not look good right now. We know it was not good last year, so they need to see if they can find some money to sign someone. That is the big issue, however, as they just do not have much cap room. If they can restructure some contracts now, they could look at someone like LB Nick Perry or DT Stefan Charles, but they need to get more cap space first.
We will be back with you in just 4 short weeks, as camps wrap up and all 28 USFL teams prepare for opening week. By then we will have the full draft signing roundup, any NFL transfers in place, and any last minute trades to report to you. We will also preview all 28 clubs, look at potential high impact faces in new places, and give you our always earnest, often way off, preseason picks and predictions. It is almost time for the season to start, and we are excited to bring it to you on This Week in the USFL.
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