October 14, 2016
Ten weeks after the Arizona Wranglers won their second title and the league is already beginning to look a lot different from the 2016 season. Whether it is new coaches in place across the league, free agent signings, NFL imports, or some early offseason trades, the USFL offseason is transforming teams across the country, and with the draft still 3 months away, there is still a lot of change expected. We will run through it all, all the moves, signings, and deals, but we start with the big move that has not yet happened, and all the players involved. The fate of QB Eli Manning could well have a ripple effect on free agency and the draft as teams scramble to find one of the toughest needles in the pro football haystack, a franchise quarterback.
Manning Being Courted By Up to 8 Teams, With No Decision in Sight
It is the story of the offeseason. After putting together his best season in over 10 years, leading the Memphis Showboats into the Summer Bowl, Eli Manning became a free agent on July 30th and since then he has had more suitors than the prom queen. He may be relaxing this offseason, spending time with family, his brother Peyton (making the late night TV rounds) and letting his agent do the hard work, but his agent is absolutely frantic this offseason. Teams with every type of QB situation have reached out to him and his agent to try to see if a deal is possible. We know that only one team will succeed, and that several others could end up with tricky QB rooms as they try to explain to their current starter why they were wooing Manning all offseason. For his part, Eli has not made a public statement. His agent, Tom Condon, has also been largely quiet, though there have been some hints that a decision will be made before December and team mini-campus. So, just who appears to be in the race? We will run down the teams in competition for Manning’s services, from least likely to most likely in the Manning sweepstakes, but just like our preseason picks, our guess on who could win this particular lottery is just that, a guess.
PHILADELPHIA: We are calling the Stars a longshot in the Manning sweepstakes for two reasons. The first is that they still have Matt Gutierrez, a more than serviceable starter, under contract through 2019, so switching to Manning now would be both pricey and unneeded. Yes, we agree that Gutierrez has not been as good the past two years as his initial years, but he is still a very viable option and Philadelphia could be just 1-2 pieces away from making a run, so we don’t think their pursuit will last into the final stages of Manning making a pick.
ST. LOUIS: The Skyhawks have absolutely reached out to Condon about Manning, but they, like Philadelphia, have a very serviceable quarterback locked in through 2019. St. Louis would be better served bringing in a stronger backup to support Josh Freeman or to challenge him, but Manning is not going to want to take on that role, so we don’t see their campaign as being too serious.
CHARLOTTE: The Monarchs are certainly hoping to move on from Brandon Wheedon, who had just a brutal second half to the season and is just far too interception-prone to continue uncontested as the starter. Charlotte would be a solid landing spot for Manning, but we have our money on the Monarchs making a play for UNC quarterback Mitch Trubisky, whose 2016 campaign has started off very strong. Getting Trubisky on a 4-year rookie contract would certainly be a better financial move than 2 years of Manning at a much higher cost, and has more long term upside as well.
MEMPHIS: Would Manning, after they year he just put in, be willing to return to the Showboats? He certainly would have the best shot of repeating his strong 2016 campaign if he stayed with the same coach and receivers, but the move to draft and sign Paxton Lynch still has to sting, and the threat of getting pulled for the high price rookie would still be a factor. We think Memphis has a decent shot at getting Manning to finish up with the Showboats, but not at a discount price, and not if ownership wants to push the Paxton Lynch era into the present.
ATLANTA: There is no mystery about Atlanta’s QB situation. Kyle Orton is not the answer, and neither is Brad Gradkowski. The Fire have a decent cap situation and can rework some deals to try to lure Manning to town, and in signing Bruce Arians to be their new head coach they have a QB friendly option for the veteran. Manning would also be a good local fit with his Southern roots and pedigree.
LAS VEGAS: The Vipers did not expect to be here, but when Cody Pickett surprised us and them with his retirement announcement, they suddenly raced to the top of the list. Las Vegas would certainly be a high-visibility landing spot for Manning, one he could parlay into more sponsorship deals on the side. It is also not a horrible situation for a veteran QB. He would be uncontested as the starter, with a solid roster around him, and the chance to expand his regional draw beyond the south after playing in New Orleans, Orlando, and Memphis over his career.
OHIO: Whether or not Ohio is a serious contender for Manning depends very much on if Tom Coughlin can provide him with assurances that offense will be a priority. It has not been over the past couple of years, and Coughlin is not known as an offensive guru or a “players’ coach”. Ohio has the money available, is more than happy to drop Brock Osweiler to make space, and would have funding to bring in some additional weapons if Manning insists on it. But, Columbus is not a big market and Ohio would be one of the least impactful locations for Manning if he cares about his marketability.
TAMPA BAY: You knew we had to put the Bandits on this list, and near the top as well. Yes, both Pat White and 2016 rookie Dak Prescott are under contract, but with a new head coach in June Jones, one who wants to run a pass-happy run & shoot variant, he may well want a QB with a lot more experience and a better track record. Manning makes sense for the Bandits, if they can find the right combination of incentives, funding, and sponsorship options for the veteran QB. It also would not hurt to get Troy Aikman and Daunte Culpepper to talk to Manning about the Bandit fanbase and their devotion to their QBs.
So, there you have it, 8 teams all vying for one player. We place Tampa Bay, Ohio, and Las Vegas as the top 3 potential landing spots, with Atlanta, Memphis and Charlotte as viable options and both St. Louis and Philadelphia as longshots. But, the USFL is a wild and wacky place and by our next report we could find Manning almost anywhere. Guess we will just have to wait and see.
We already mentioned above a few new coaching situations, but we had five positions open this July, and after only 10 weeks we have only one left. Let’s run through the moves made and then finish up with the last club still without a head coach, along with what the new hires may be bringing to their teams.
ATLANTA: Former St. Louis Head Coach Bruce Arians
The Fire were the first to sign a coach, jumping on the chance to bring in 2012 Summer Bowl Champion Bruce Arians. Clearly they feel that St. Louis made a mistake in letting him walk after a pair of rough seasons. The hope in Atlanta is that Arians will revive a pretty moribund offense, while also instilling a culture change for a team that has played 11 seasons and never sniffed the sweet air of a Summer Bowl. What to expect from Arians? Well, based on the experience in St. Louis, he is going to want a balanced offense that requires both a solid run game and a QB who can make plays when the script goes sideways. He will run a jovial, open locker room, and give his players a lot of freedom to be themselves, if they are puling their weight each gameday. We see this as a very good move for a franchise that still struggles to define itself.
LAS VEGAS: Former Washington & UCLA Head Coach Rick Neuheisel
We list Neuheisel’s more recent positions above, but USFL fans know him as the one-time USFL QB of the mid-80’s and perhaps as a pretty short-lived coach for the LA Express. Neuheisel’s first time around as a head coach in the USFL was, to be kind, not ideal. The expansion Express struggled to be competitive, and Rick was out after only 3 seasons. However, since then he has grown into coaching, finding success with both the Huskies and the Bruins. Eager to return to the pro game, we expect Neuheisel to focus on player development and to bring back a little bit of the freewheeling style of the early years of the USFL. Now, the question is, can he find himself a QB who wants to join that kind of atmosphere?
SEATTLE: Former Charger, Oregon, and Nebraska head coach Mike Riley.
Riley has bumped back and forth between the college game and the pros over his career, with short stints as well in the CFL and the USFL (2 years in San Antonio with the Texans). He will join a Seattle team that wanted a bit more seasoning in their new head coach, and perhaps a bit of straightforward structure for the team. Riley will focus primarily on defense, leaving the offensive game planning to his OC, Mike Johnson. What can we expect from Riley’s Dragons? Well, we think Joseph Addai will be happy, because the run game will certainly be an emphasis, especially with 2016 rookie Jacoby Brissett expected to return as the starter in 2017. The defense will likely put more emphasis on pass rush, and the team as a whole should look for a “return to basics” approach.
TAMPA BAY: Former Hawaii and SMU head coach June Jones.
If Las Vegas bringing in Rick Neuheisel reminds folks of the old days of the early USFL, June Jones could be a huge wayback machine moment. Jones cut his teeth in Mouse Davis’s Run & Shoot and has been one of the system’s biggest advocates for 30 years. Yes, the style of multiple-receiver, shotgun formations and short passing with a lot of attention on run after the catch may now be called the Spread Offense, but we all know what it really is. It’s Mouse Davis’s Run & Shoot, and Jones is perhaps the biggest proponent of the system around today. So, with the Bandits, what do we expect? We expect them to try to find a true lead back, someone who can take on defenders without a fullback or a tight end helping out. We should expect more 3 and 4 receiver sets, and more quick throws. Now, who will be delivering those throws? That is very much in question.
ST. LOUIS: To Be Determined
The Skyhawks are playing the waiting game, which likely means that they have someone in the NFL as their top candidate. Just who that is we don’ know, but our suspicion is that it is likely an offensive coordinator, someone who will help revitalize a once-potent Skyhawk passing game, and someone who will alter the success of the team without necessarily altering the style of play or personnel needs of a team that simply does not have the cap room right now for a full roster overhaul. No power run, smashmouth offense, no spread, but someone who can run what they want to run with the players St. Louis has on their roster. Expect St. Louis to name that person at some point in January, as soon as current NFL coaches are freed up to talk to potential new employers. In the meantime, the GM and his staff will be tasked with adding talent to a roster that has lost and could still lose a few big pieces this offseason.
The first month or two of the offseason is when we tend to see the bulk of the retirement announcements from the league, and this year we had a larger than usual list of players, some of them potential Hall of Fame candidates in 5 years. Some we have already discussed, some are new to our list, but all will impact their teams with their departures. Rather than go team by team, we thought it made more sense to go by position, discussing potential impact along the way. So, here, without further ado, is the retirement class of 2016, some of whom (highlighted in bold font) we may be considering for gold jackets in 2021.
Quarterback
Matt Hasselbeck (HOU), Byron Leftwich (SEA), Cody Pickett (LV), Quincy Carter (NOR), Chad Henne (PHI)
While Houston seems prepared for Hasselbeck’s retirement, with Colt McCoy primed to step in, not everyone was that lucky. Seattle appears ready to move ahead with Jacoby Brissett but that is a big leap of faith. Las Vegas was somewhat sideswiped by Cody Pickett’s retirement and may well spend the rest of the offseason trying to find a solution for the short term. As for the Hall, while some may argue that Leftwich deserves consideration, there will be little doubt that Matt Hasselbeck will be a front runner from this year’s retirees.
Halfback
Deuce McCallister (WSH), Rashard Mendenhall (DAL), Darren McFadden (CHA), Cadillac Williams (JAX), Antonio Pittman (DAL), Kevin Smith (POR).
We count 4 USFL franchises who are losing their primary back, including the legend and certain 1st ballot Hall of Famer (Deuce McCallister). Of the four teams looking to find a new bell cow back, Charlotte may be in the best situation if Adrian Peterson continues to improve the further he gets from his ACL surgery. Dallas may be in the worst position, losing their starter and a key backup. Look for them to go for a back in the draft. Charlotte added Travares Cadet in free agency, and may be happy with their 4-back group right now. Washington will need to either use up some draft capital or to make a move in free agency because they don’t want to go into the season with Wendell Smallwood and Shane Vereen as their main options.
RECEIVERS:
Early Doucet (NOR), Nate Burleson (SEA), Roddy White (LA), Chris Chambers (BIR), Mike Sims-Walker (BAL), David Tyree (ARZ), Sam Hurd (ORL)
No obvious Hall of Famers here, as Doucet’s career of 8 years is likely not long enough to convince voters. That is not to say he will not be missed in New Orleans. We initially thought Kenny Britt would jump up to the number one slot, but New Orleans made a huge move in free agency (see below) and now have to be happy with their Top 3 receivers. Seattle is likely to go with their 2 NFL imports (Sanders and Wallace), moving Legedu Naanee into the slot position. LA traded for Demaryius Thomas and should pair him with Nelson Agholor outside. So, while the big 3 receivers retiring this year are important players, their teams seem ready to move ahead without major draft capital needed at the position.
Tight End
Antonio Gates (BAL), Daniel Graham (ARZ), L. J. Smith (CHA)
The Gates retirement will be a tough one to overcome for the Blitz. He is a sure-fire Hall of Famer someday, and right now their best alternative is Jacob Tamme, a serviceable receiver but hardly a target that strikes fear into defenders. Arizona had already largely phased Daniel Graham out of most passing downs in favor of Jimmie Graham, and Charlotte had promoted Brandon Pettigrew (when healthy) to the starting job. So, Baltimore seems the most impacted and should likely invest in a tight end via trade or the draft.
Offensive Line:
C Jeff Faine (MGN), C Ryan Kalil (MEM), G Harvey Dahl (DAL), G Steve Edwards (PHI), T Barrett Brooks (MEM)
Memphis loses 2 pieces of their offensive line group, though Barrett was not a starter. The biggest loss may be in Michigan, where Faine was the captain of that line and will be tough to replace. Expect them to look at a big body out of the Big 10, though backup David Molk may also get a shot. In Memphis, veteran T. J. Johnson is the most likely candidate to step into Kalil’s position.
Defensive End:
Reynaldo Wynn (TEX/OKL), Keneche Udeze (LA), David Bowns (JAX), Adewale Ogunleye (SD), Antwan Odom (LA)
The Express lose not only Udeze, but Antwan Odom as well, meaning they will have to prioritize edge rush this offseason. Expect at least 1 draft pick dedicated to the position. The Outlaws lose perhaps the face of their defense, and while Chris Harrington will probably be moved from RE to LE, they will need to add someone opposite him. Could a draft pick be the solution?
Defensive Tackle:
Jason Ferguson (ATL), Alan Branch (SEA), Keyonta Marshall (ATL)
Atlanta loses two members of their 4-man rotation at the position. We thought they would lobby hard to bring Albert Haynesworth in from Orlando, but they did not. With neither Seattle or Atlanta signing Haynesworth, it looks like both will look to add depth and talent at the DT position in this year’s draft.
Linebacker:
Brian Urlacher (CHI), Hunter Hillenmeyer (CHA), Kevin Burnett (WSH), Justin Durant (OHI), Brian Allen (BIR)
Two potential Hall of Famers are retiring this year. Both Chicago and Charlotte have already started to address the huge holes left behind through free agency, Chicago with Breaker LB Kevin Minter and Charlotte with Gabe Miller from the Bulls. Two very good players, to be sure, but perhaps still a step down from the impact Urlacher and Hillenmeyer had on each defense.
Cornerback:
Randall Gay (NOR), Willie Middlebrooks (LV), Keiwan Ratliff (MEM), Adolph Petrie (BIR)
Gay saved his best for last, finishing this season as the USFL’s interception leader. The Breakers still have Patrick Peterson and may try to promote nickel Rashard Robinson up to the 2 slot, but don’t be surprised if they also add an early round corner in the draft. As for Las Vegas, the emergence of Shaquille Richardson this year, makes Middlebrooks’s retirement a bit easier to stomach.
Safety:
Willie Andrews (HOU), Coy Wire (SD), Chad Scott (ORL)
Three very talented safeties, and very good leaders in the secondary as well. Houston really does not have an answer at free safety right now. San Diego has two candidates on the roster in Duke Williams and Jonathan Amaya, so they may stand pat. Orlando looks to have a bare cupboard. Expect them to potentially add an NFL veteran or to draft, maybe both.
Specialists:
K David Green (OHI), P Craig Jarrett (SD), P John Carlton (PHI)
While Ohio would like to get someone with experience, a strong leg may be more important and so we could see them using a late round pick on a kicker. Philly and San Diego are likely to wait until after the draft to find a punter, either a veteran or a rookie free agent.
Rather than go through each step of the offseason (trades, free agency, NFL transfers) and have you try to piece together what it might mean for your favorite team, we thought we would go a different route, looking team by team to see what departures and arrivals are of the highest impact and to take a quick look at what needs are still most glaring as we continue into the winter and preparations for the College Draft in January. So, going division by division, and alphabetically within each, here is what has occurred and what needs remain outstanding for each USFL club as they prepare for 2017.
BALTIMORE BLITZ
Biggest Departures: TE Antonio Gates (Ret), FB Quinn Johnson (NFL), C Ryan Pontrbriand (NFL), C Richie Incognito (FA-LV)
Free Agent Signings: LB Clint Sintim (Re-Signed)
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: The biggest hit was certainly Antonio Gates choosing to retire, though the loss of both Pontbriand and Incognito also makes center a priority.
Needs to be Met: Tight End, Center, Tackle, and fullback are pretty obvious needs. Rumors have the Blitz looking to get a veteran tight end, either by trade or free agency, but nothing is certain yet. In the draft, expect them to focus on the O-liine and perhaps find a fullback.
T-Draft Prospects: Baltimore, due to low prospect numbers from their 3 protected schools, was granted a 4th school, Toledo, which could be a good spot for them, especially if they are interested in HB Kareem Hunt.
NEW JERSEY GENERALS
Biggest Departures: DE Michael San (NFL), SS Anthoine Bethea (NFL)
Free Agent Signings: SS Marquestan Huff (STL)
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: Not much to choose from, but landing a quality safety after the NFL snapped up Bethea was a needed move to be sure.
Needs to be Met: the Generals would like to add a back behind MJD, and could also look at depth at guard, defensive tackle, and wide receiver. That list tells us they are really happy with their 22 starters right now.
T-Draft Prospects: Our favorite player from New Jersey’s 3 protected schools is pretty obvious, LB/DE T. J. Watt, brother of NFL superstar J. J. Watt. But don’t sleep on another defender, BC’s sparkplug, Matt Milano.
PHILADLEPHIA STARS
Biggest Departures: QB Chad Henne (Ret), P John Carlton (Ret), G Steve Edwards (Ret), WR Marshall Newhouse (FA-SEA)
Free Agent Signings: DE Sen’Drick Marks (CHA), SS Glover Quinn (WSH), QB Tony Pike (OHI)
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: The Stars think they have solved their backup QB position with Pike coming over from Ohio, but, of course, the question of if they are satisfied with Matt Gutierrez was raised by their interest in Eli Manning, so Pike may well be looking at 3rd string if somehow Philly wins the Manning sweepstakes.
Needs to be Met: Aside from any QB issues, Philadelphia wants to add some bodies at linebacker, defensive tackle, land a new punter, and perhaps some O-line depth.
T-Draft Prospects: The Penn State pipeline does not have a lot for Philadelphia this year, though we do like WR Chris Godwin. However, Temple could be a good source for young talent with Philly looking at LB Haasan Reddick, DE Tanoh Kpassagnon, and OG Dion Dawkins as potential prospects.
PITTSBURGH MAULERS
Biggest Departures: OT Jared Gaither (NFL), LB Buster Davis (NFL), HB Charles Sims (FA-DAL)
Free Agent Signings: None to date.
Trades: Sent DT Josh Boyd to Seattle for HB Jay Ajayi
Biggest Move So Far: The trade for Ajayi is the only positive move so far for Pittsburgh. Expect to see the back on third down and in kick returns.
Needs to be Met: If Ajayi meets their need for a speed back, then the biggest remaining needs are at QB (a backup to Dalton), linebacker, corner, and tackle.
T-Draft Prospects: We expect the Maulers to take a shot at HB James Conner, a local favorite, but they could also look at Pitt’s Nate Peterman as a possible backup for Dalton, or CB Rasul Douglas as a good prospect at cornerback, out of West Virginia.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS
Biggest Departures: HB Deuce McCallister (Ret), LB Kevin Burnett (Ret), WR Kelvin Benjamin (FA-DEN), SS Glover Quinn (FA-PHI), HB Jacob Hester (FA-MEM)
Free Agent Signings: LB Shawne Merriman (DEN), WR Keenan Allen (OAK)
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: The Feds have landed two immediate impact players in Merriman and Allen. We expect Merriman to step right into Kevin Burnett’s role at the center of the Federal linebacker group, while Allen will get his shot to be a true number one receiver, or at least 1B with Brandon LaFell also hoping to be a frequent target for David Garrard.
Needs to be Met: Washington has quite a few, including G, FS, CB, SS, LB and CB, but the most obvious is at halfbak, where they need to find someone who can be their primary ball carrier.
T-Draft Prospects: The Federals added Vanderbilt this year as a protected school, butwe still see Virginia and Virginia Tech as their best pools of talent. For example, safety Chuck Clark of Va Tech seems a natural fit, as would TE Bucky Hodges or WR Isaiah Ford, all current Hokies who should be there for the Feds in the T-Draft.
ATLANTA FIRE
Biggest Departures: DT Jason Ferguson (Ret), DT Keyonta Marshall (Ret), QB Kellen Clemons (FA-POR)
Free Agent Signings: None to date.
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: The only moves we can really speak of for Atlanta have been extensions and re-signings made to free up more cap room. In theory the Fire, a prime candidate in the Manning Sweepstakes, have more than enough room, but that may be because they also need to add more receiver talent if they want to attract Manning.
Needs to be Met: We already said it, quarterback. Outside of that obvious need, there is also TE, CB, DT, and LB on their list.
T-Draft Prospects: With Williams in the fold, interest in Georgia’s Isaiah McKenzie may not be as big as first thought. They could go with kicker Harrison Butker out of Georgia Tech, but also added both VCU and Georgia State as supplementals due to the small crop of eligible players coming out of their top 3 schools. One potential player of interest from those smaller schools is tight end Mo Alle-Cox.
CHARLOTTE MONARCHS
Biggest Departures: HB Darren McFadden (Ret), TE L. J. Smith (Ret), WR Donte Do (NFL), DE Sen’Drick Marks (FA-PHI), WR James Hardy (FA-PHI)
Free Agent Signings: DE Gabe Miller (JAX), CB Zachary Bowman (SD)
Trades: Sent HB William Bethea and DE Obum Gwacham to the Panthers for DE Anthony Zettl. A good two-for-one deal that helps Charlotte build a passrush with a potential impact player on the edge.
Biggest Move So Far: The moves so far have been solid if unspectacular. It is clear in the Miller signing and the Zettl trade that Charlotte wants to upgrade their pass rush, which seems like a good idea, creating some rotation alongside Chandler Jones (10 sacks in 2016).
Needs to be Met: The Monarchs are in the Eli Manning hunt, but are also actively pursuing UNC quarterback Mitch Trubisky, so we expect Brandon Wheedon to be out of a job come March. Other than QB, the Monarchs want to add more depth to the receiving corps, and would love to improve the O-line as well.
T-Draft Prospects: Other than Trubisky, the big fish in their protected pool, NC State safety Josh Jones, UNC wideout Mack Hollins, or possibly LB Marquel Lee, another Tarheel talent.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS
Biggest Departures: HB Cadillac Williams (Ret), DE David Bowens (Ret), WR Sinorice Moss (NFL), QB Adrian McPherson (FA-CHI)
Free Agent Signings: None
Trades: Jacksonville brought in HB Andre Williams from Denver, along with a 5th round pick by sending OT Ronnie Stanley to the Gold.
Biggest Move So Far: The trade with Denver was really the only action from the Bulls so far. We don’t see Andre Williams as the solution with Cadillac Williams retiring, so expect more options at HB to be considered.
Needs to be Met: We would point to halfback, wide receiver, linebacker and defensive end, but picking up another running QB to back up Griffin without changing schemes would be wise too.
T-Draft Prospects: As odd as it may seem, we don’t see Jacksonville pursuing DeShaun Watson, not with Griffin in house already. Perhaps they trade away the option on Watson, allowing them more picks in the open draft. Others in the T-Draft pool that could be better options for Jacksonville include WR Mike Williams from Clemson, LB Jarrad Davis of Florida, or possibly another gator LB in plugger Alex Anzalone.
ORLANDO RENEGADES
Biggest Departures: WR Sam Hurd (Ret), SS Chad Scott (Ret), WR DeShaun Jackson (NFL), OT Cameron Fleming (FA-MGN), TE Daniel Fells (FA-DAL), OT James Carpenter (CHI), DT Albert Haynesworth (FA-HOU)
Free Agent Signings: WR Tandon Doss (BIR),
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: Not a positive one, but Albert Haynesworth leaving for a 2-year deal with the Gamblers is a big blow. There was little chance Orlando could resign him, but still, to have him stay in the conference is not what they would have wanted.
Needs to be Met: Just look at the list of departed players and you get the idea: DT, DE, SS, WR are the big ones.
T-Draft Prospects: Having U. of Miami in their pool is usually a huge help for the Renegades. So, this year, how about TE David Njoku, QB Brad Kaaya, S Rayshawn Jenkins, or G Danny Isidora? They should also take a long look at UCF cornerback Shaquill Griffin, a quality player with high upside.
TAMPA BAY BANDITS
Biggest Departures: C Jimmy Hook (FA-OKL), WR Davone Bess (FA-OAK)
Free Agent Signings: CB Trumaine McBride (DAL0, FS Will Allen (DAL)
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: The Bandits have had very few losses, but made a couple of interesting signings, picking up two DB’s from one of the few teams with a worse defense than their own. That said, Will Allen has a proven track record and could be some veteran leadership for the Tampa secondary.
Needs to be Met: We still think QB has to be a priority, even if they do like 2016 rookie Dak Prescott. To that add halfback, center, safety, and oh, yes, they need a kicker at some point too.
T-Draft Prospects: FSU has the perfect option for them at halfback, speedy and shifty tailback Dalvin Cook should be a priority. Outside of him, they could look at DE DeMarcus Walker, HB Marlon Mack from USF, or OT Roderick Johnson, another Seminole product.
BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS
Biggest Departures: LB Brian Allen (Ret), CB Adolph Petrie (Ret), WR Chris Chambers (Ret), QB Colt Brennan (NFL), OT Marshall Yanda (NFL), WR Donte Moncrief (FA-OAK), WR Tandon Doss (FA-ORL)
Free Agent Signings: QB Matt Moore (PHI), LB Philip Wheeler (MEM)
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: More departures than additions at this point, though we like Philip Wheeler coming over from rival Memphis. Moore is a serviceable backup and could adapt to the run-pass options that Cam Newton uses as he is pretty fleet of foot.
Needs to be Met: The primary need continues to be adding speed and depth to the linebacker group, but Birmingham is also interested in OT, DT, and perhaps some WR help after losing two backups to free agency.
T-Draft Prospects: What will Auburn and Alabama provide this year? How about CB Marlon Humphrey, DE Jonathan Allen, and TE O. J. Howard from Bama? Or they could look at LB Reuben Foster, OT Cam Robinson, or DT Montravius Adams, all available if they want to protect them.
HOUSTON GAMBLERS
Biggest Departures: QB Matt Hasselbeck (Ret), FS Willie Andrews (Ret), WR Mike Sims-Walker (Ret), K Dan Carpenter (FA-POR), HB Ben Tate (FA-POR), WR Roy Williams (FA-ATL)
Free Agent Signings: DT Albert Haynesworth (ORL), QB Landry Jones (DAL)
Trades: Sent SS Duke Williams to San Diego in return for big back Alfred Blue and a 4th rounder.
Biggest Move So Far: While the loss of Hasselbeck is big, the Gamblers like what they saw from Colt McCoy last year, and they added Landry Jones as the likely backup. But the big move is an obvious one, stealing big Albert Haynesworth away from Orlando and adding him to the Houston line has to put a big smile on Wade Phillips’ face.
Needs to be Met: Houston is lacking at WR with Roy Williams leaving for Atlanta, so expect that to be a priority. They also want some help at safety and they need a new kicker after Portland picked up Dan Carpenter.
T-Draft Prospects: If Houston can put Texas A&M prospect Miles Garrett next to Haynesworth, they could rival Orlando for their pass rush. We don’t see the Gamblers going after Patrick Mahomes, but they would be wise to take a trade with a QB-needy team to add the Texas Tech QB. Not a lot of help at other areas of need, though Texas A&M wideout Josh Reynolds has some speed and could be a good depth addition for the WR group.
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS
Biggest Departures: C Ryan Kalil (Ret), OT Barret Brooks (Ret), CB Keiwan Ratliff (Ret), LB Philip Wheeler (FA-BIR)
Free Agent Signings: HB Jacob Hester (WSH), CB Patrick Robinson (DEN)
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: Pursuing Eli Manning. Memphis is by no means guaranteed to get Manning back, that ship may have sailed, but they have to try. If they cannot resign him, then it will be Paxton Lynch’s team. If that is the case, then Memphis will want to get him more help than they have so far, only backup HB Hester so far.
Needs to be Met: If they cannot persuade Manning to come back, then a veteran at QB2 seems essential in case Lynch struggles. Other than that obvious situation there is need at OT, LB, and safety.
T-Draft Prospects: Our favorite potential target for Memphis is Tennessee HB Alvin Kamara, a possible gem of a 3rd down back. We also like another Vol, DE Derek Barnett. LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin could be a target, as could CB Cameron Sutton. Memphis may also look at kicker with Jake Elliott a local favorite out of the U. of Memphis.
NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS
Biggest Departures: CB Randall Gay (Ret), WR Early Doucet (Ret), QB Quincy Carter (Ret), LB Kevin Minter (FA-CHI), CB Shaquille Richardson (FA-LV)
Free Agent Signings: FS Clyde Adams (TEX/OKL), WR Jordy Nelson (STL), G Vlad Ducasse (NFL)
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: The loss of Early Doucet was a gut punch to the Breakers, but they immediately resigned themselves to be players in a very good year for free agent receivers, and they got their man, signing Jordy Nelson away from St. Louis on a 4-year deal. Now Nelson will line up with Kenny Britt for a very good 1-2 punch in the passing game.
Needs to be Met: Corner is a need after the Randall Gay retirement,as is CB, backup QB, safety, and quite possibly halfback. More on that just below.
T-Draft Prospects: As good as the Breakers have been the past 2 years, Jeremy Hill has not been the back they need to be a dominant team. The good news is that LSU has the answer for them. The Breakers need to do what they can to land Leonard Fournette, the perfect piece for their offensive needs. That is a no-brainer. And if they can add another Bayou Bengal or two, players like safety Jamal Adams, Tra’Davious White, or LB Duke Riley, well it will be a very happy Mardi Gras in Breakerland.
CHICAGO MACHINE
Biggest Departures: LB Brian Urlacher (Ret), FB Vontae Leach (Ret), WR Austin Pettis (NFL), DE Connor Barwin (FA-DAL), OT Andrew Whitworth (FA-DAL)
Free Agent Signings: QB Adrian McPherson (JAX), OT Charles Brown (LA), OT James Carpenter (ORL), LB Kevin Minter (NOR), OG Kevin Zeitler (Re-Signed)
Trades: Chicago sent QB Mike Kafka to Oklahoma for a 4th round pick, but the biggest shocker of all was that they split up their HB duo, opting to send HB Doug Martin off to Portland for a 3rd round pick and fullback Greg Jones. That was not expected at all and changes up the run game for certain.
Biggest Move So Far: Very little could be done to replace Brian Urlacher, but landing a savvy veteran like Kevin Minter from the Breakers is a pretty good first step. Chicago has been very active, and their O-line has benefited from three signings, so that is a great early start to the offseason.
Needs to be Met: Center is still a priority, as is DT, SS, and maybe another LB prospect. We would also not be surprised if they went after a bigger running back for goalline and short yardages situations.
T-Draft Prospects: Chicago has several good options in this year’s pool, including Notre Dame QB DeShone Kizer, Illinois DE Dawuane Smoot, and NIU wideout Kenny Golloday.
MICHIGAN PANTHERS
Biggest Departures: C Jeff Faine (Ret), K Matt Prater (NFL), SS Corey Chavous (NFL)
Free Agent Signings: DT Cameron Fleming (ORL), DT Terrell Troupe (OKL)
Trades: The Panthers sent DE Anthony Zettle to Charlotte for DE Obum Gwacham and HB William Bethea. An interesting move that adds depth but no real impact to the Panther roster.
Biggest Move So Far: We love that the Panthers addressed the DT position with not one signing but two. That means they are looking at rotation as a strategy, which seems a good one to us.
Needs to be Met: Center is still a big issue with Jeff Faine’s retirement, and Michigan could use a tight end, and some more help in the secondary. A kicker has to be in the plan as well.
T-Draft Prospects: Safety Jabrill Peppers from the Wolverines sems a natural fit, as does CB Jourdan Lewis. We would have said DT Malik Mcdowell from MSU, but we think the DT position is good as is. One last possible target is safety Montae Nicholson from MSU.
OHIO GLORY
Biggest Departures: LB Justin Durant (Ret), K David Green (Ret), TE Zach Miller (NFL), G Darnell Stapleton (NFL), QB Tony Pike (FA-PHI)
Free Agent Signings: QB Troy Smith (POR), G Travis Bond (LA), TE Richard Rodgers (OAK)
Trades: Ohio sent DE Isaac Hilton to the Invaders in a 1-for-1 trade to get DT Jarron Gilbert.
Biggest Move So Far: Buckeye fans will be happy to see Troy Smith return to the Glory, but the player Glory fans should be excited about is TE Richard Rodgers, who not only helps fill the gap created when Zach Miller left for the NFL, but is a step up as a pass receiver.
Needs to be Met: Wideout is a biggie, with LB, HB, and both ST positions, kicker and punter. Oh, and did we mention that Ohio looks to be a major player in the Eli Manning chase despite continuing to say that they like what they saw from Christian Hackenberg this past season.
T-Draft Prospects: Ohio State has some talent ready to roll this year, but it does not really align with Ohio’s main needs. We do like WR Curtis Samuel as a possible option for the Glory, but CB Marshan Lattimore and S Malik Hooker are great talents in positions that Ohio does not have as priorities. The Glory could solve their punter issue in the T-Draft also, with Buckeye Cameron Johnston a viable option.
ST. LOUIS SKYHAWKS
Biggest Departures: LB Brandon Siler (NFL), LB Angelo Crowell (NFL), G Brett Williams (NFL), WR Jordy Nelson (FA-NOR), SS Marqueston Huff (FA-NJ)
Free Agent Signings: TE James Casey (Re-Sign), WR Terrance Williams (NFL)
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: The loss of Jordy Nelson is going to hurt, there is no doubt of that. While we like that the Skyhawks were able to sign former Cowboy Terrance Williams, we are not sure that is enough, and with their tight cap number, they may not have many options outside of the draft to improve the roster.
Needs to be Met: Wideout remains a concern, but ehy also need perhaps 2 LB positions filled, major help at safety and they certainly could improve at DE as well.
T-Draft Prospects: The answer for the DE issue may be right here, with Missouri’s Charles Harris, a very adept speed rusher on the edge. St. Louis could also look for a backup QB if they like Iowa’s C. J. Beathard. Iowa also has an intriguing TE in George Kittle, and a solid CB in Desmond King.
ARIZONA WRANGLERS
Biggest Departures: WR David Tyree (Ret), TE Daniel Graham (Ret)
Free Agent Signings: DT Glenn Dorsey (Re-sign)
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: It has been a very quiet offseason for the league champions, with the biggest deal so far the new deal for DT Glenn Dorsey.
Needs to be Met: The Wranglers need a new slot receiver and would like to add a 2nd tight end as well.
T-Draft Prospects: Not a great pool for the Wranglers, but with Eastern Washington added to their usual 3 protected teams they could get some value, especially with receivers Kendrick Bourne and Cooper kupp coming out of EWU this year.
DALLAS ROUGHNECKS
Biggest Departures: HB Rashard Mendenhall (Ret), HB Antonio Pittman (Ret), G Harvey Dahl (Ret), DT Brandon Mebane (NFL), DE Elvis Dumervil (NFL), QB Landry Jones (FA-HOU), CB Trumaine McBride (FA-TBY), WR Percy Harvin (FA-OKL), FS Will Allen (FA-TBY)
Free Agent Signings: HB Charles Sims (PIT), TE Daniel Fells (ORL), OT Andrew Whitworth (CHI)
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: No team has seen more departures either from retirement or free agency than Dallas. But, that said, the Roughnecks have done well in free agency so far, landing quality players in OT Andrew Whitworth and TE Daniel Fells. They will need to be as aggressive the rest of the offeseason to restock and improve their roster.
Needs to be Met: Halfback has to be a priority. Look for them to focus on that position in the draft. They could also use more help at safety, guard, DT, and they still need to find a replacement for Landry Jones, who headed down to Houston in free agency.
T-Draft Prospects: If Dallas wants some home grown halfbacks, they have a few to choose from, including D’Onte Foreman from UT and Aaron Jones at UTEP. They should also consider taking a run at TCU linebacker Josh Carraway.
DENVER GOLD
Biggest Departures: WR Anthony Gonzalez (NFL), WR Leonard Hankerson (NFL), CB Patrick Robinson (MEM), LB Shawne Merriman (WSH)
Free Agent Signings: TE Richard Quinn (Re-sign), WR Kelvin Benjamin (WSH)
Trades: Sent a 5th round pick and HB Andre Williams to Jacksonville to bolster the line with tackle Ronnie Stanley, a move that could help the Gold run the ball more effectively.
Biggest Move So Far: No doubt that the biggest splash the Gold have made so far is landing up and coming receiver Kelvin Benjamin, with Michael Crabtree and veteran Golden Tate, this gives Matt Leinart three very reliable targets.
Needs to be Met: Denver needs to find a replacement for Shawn Merriman, a huge gap. They could actually use at least 2 additional linebackers, along with a corner, and perhaps 1 more receiver.
T-Draft Prospects: The best player from Colorado is at corner, Chidobe Auzie, and the best from Nebraska is a safety, Tedric Thompson. No help at linebacker in their pool, but a possible 3rd selection could be TE Cethan Carter from the Huskers.
LAS VEGAS VIPERS
Biggest Departures: QB Cody Pickett (Ret), LB Hunter Hillenmeyer (Ret), CB Willie Middlebrooks (Ret), HB Christian Michael (NFL), WR Lance Moore (FA-BAL), FB Sean Smith (FA-SD), OG Spencer Long (FA-SD)
Free Agent Signings: CB Shaquille Richardson (NOR), FB Patric DeMarco (PIT), WR Derek Hagan (OAK)
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: A rough combination of free agent departures and retirements, particularly the losses of Hillenmeyer and Pickett. The biggest move may actually be just restructuring some contracts so that they have enough cap room to even consider bringing in Eli Manning, because otherwise they will need to do some work to get into position to draft a QB.
Needs to be Met: QB is job one. Beyond that, we are still looking at MLB, CB, G, and WR. There are a lot of holes to be filled and not a lot of cap space right now to fill them.
T-Draft Prospects: The Vipers like HB Joe Williams out of Utah as a special teamer and short yardage back, but the rest of their pool is a bit week. Center J. J. Dielman is a bit of a stretch, but with Incognito gone, Las Vegas may need him if only for depth. Utah WR Tim Patrick and BYU QB Taysom Hill are also interesting options, especially if Hill is willing to be reassigned as a fullback or tight end, since we don’t see him projecting as a drop back passer.
OKLAHOMA OUTLAWS
Biggest Departures: DE Reynaldo Wynn (Ret), QB Kyle Boller (NFL), SS Sean Considine (NFL), DT Terrell Troupe (FA-MGN), FS Clyde Adams (FA-NOR)
Free Agent Signings: C Jimmy Hook (TBY), WR Percy Harvin (DAL)
Trades: The Outlaws sent a 4th round pick to Chicago for backup QB Mike Kafka.
Biggest Move So Far: Nothing we would call a big move yet, and Oklahoma has some holes to fill with the departure of half their defensive line starters.
Needs to be Met: Defensive end, defensive tackle, and safety are obvious needs, but Oklahoma also needs to add some depth at wide receiver, even after signing Harvin away from Dallas.
T-Draft Prospects: Some potential help from their T-Draft pool, including WR Dede Westbrook from OU, some DT depth in OSU’s Vincent Taylor, and, perhaps most importantly, a good looking DE in K-State’s Jordan Willis. All this plus OU halfback Joe Mixon to consider.
LOS ANGELES EXPRESS
Biggest Departures: DE Keneche Udeze (Ret), DE Antwan Odom (Ret), WR Roddy White (Ret), OT Charles Brown (FA-CHI), G Travis Bond (FA-OHI)
Free Agent Signings: DE Laurence Jackson (OAK)
Trades: None
Biggest Move So Far: The dual departure of Udeze and Odom leave a huge need at DE. We like Laurence Jackson but not as a starting edge rusher, so LA has more work left to do to find a pass rush.
Needs to be Met: An effective edge rusher is the top priority, followed by cornerback, guard, defensive tackle, and perhaps a backup QB for Sam Bradford.
T-Draft Prospects: We love USC corner Adoree Jackson as a candidate for the Express. They may also want to look at WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, guard Zach Banner, and DT Stevie Tu’ikotovatu, all strong options out of USC.
OAKLAND INVADERS
Biggest Departures: LB Nick Koutavides (NFL), DE Junior Galette (NFL), WR Pierre Garçon (NFL), WR Derek Hagan (FA-LV), TE Richard Rodgers (FA-OHI), WR Keenan Allen (FA-WSH)
Free Agent Signings: WR Donte Moncrief (BIR), Davone Bess (FA-TBY)
Trades: Oakland sent DT Jarron Gilbert to Chicago to acquire DE Isaac Hilton
Biggest Move So Far: The deal for Hilton was a good one for the Invaders, who need more pressure beyond Cliff Avril on the line. While losing Keenan Allen is a big loss, we like the addition of Moncrief and Bess, who both play well inside and can help with special teams.
Needs to be Met: Another WR would be good, especially a good possession receiver. But, more important is for the Invaders to shore up the defense with a good OLB, a safety, and some more help at DE.
T-Draft Prospects: DE Solomon Thomas from Stanford seems a no-brainer here. We also think the Invaders could do worse than bringing in Cal QB Davis Webb to learn from Harrington. WR Chad Hensen also makes sense for the Invaders, but we are also hearing rumors that they could zig instead of zagging and make a big move for Stanford HB Christian McCaffrey. HB is not a position of immediate need, but McCaffrey has all the skills Dennis Green could ever want in a tailback.
PORTLAND STAGS
Biggest Departures: WR Kevin Smith (Ret), C Geoff Hangartner (NFL), K Mason Crosby (NFL), DE Cullen Jenkins (NFL), QB Troy Smith (FA-OHI)
Free Agent Signings: QB Kellen Clemons (ATL), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (SEA), WR Jordan Shipley (OKL), HB Ben Tate (HOU), DT Domata Peko (NFL), S Duke Ihenacho (NFL)
Trades: Perhaps the biggest move of the trading block to date, with Portland landing HB Doug Martin from the Machine in return for a 3rd round pick and FB Greg Jones.
Biggest Move So Far: the Stags have been very aggressive early in the offseason, with the Martin trade certainly a highlight, but the addition of Peko and Ihenacho from the NFL could be equally impactful as Portland tries to improve their defense.
Needs to be Met: The O-line is a huge concern, with holes at center and guard. They could also use help in the secondary, at both corner and safety, and they do not currently have a punter on the roster.
T-Draft Prospects: Ask for a center and the T-Draft provides one, this time in the shape of OSU’s Sean Harlow. No such luck at guard, however. We do like LB Tanner Vallejo from Boise State as well as a couple more Beavers, TE Pharaoh Brown and FB Ricky Ortiz.
SAN DIEGO THUNDER
Biggest Departures: DE Adewale Ogunleye (Ret), SS Coy Wire (Ret), P Craig Jarrett (Ret), G Aaron Sears (NFL), CB Zachary Bowman (FA-CHA), DE C. J. Mosely (FA-NOR)
Free Agent Signings: FB Sean Smith (LV), G Spencer Long (LV)
Trades: The Thunder traded HB Alfred Blue for a position of need, safety, and got a pretty good option in Houston SS Duke Williams.
Biggest Move So Far: Nothing huge so far, mostly adding depth and filling a fewer low-cost positions, but no splashy signing to excite the fans.
Needs to be Met: Right Tackle is a huge need, with D-line right behind that, maybe another corner, and some depth along the O-line. That is if the combo of Joe Webb and Christian Ponder feel like what Coach LeBeau wants to work with at QB.
T-Draft Prospects: No OT help out of UCLA, SDSU, but perhaps some depth with 3rd school, Minnesota providing OT Conor McDermott. More there at guard, with Daniel Brunskill or Nico Siragusa out of SDSU. How about some defensive help, with the best UCLA recruit being DE Takkarist McKinley?
SEATTLE DRAGONS
Biggest Departures: DT Alan Branch (Ret), QB Byron Leftwich (Ret), WR Nate Burleson (Ret), K Dave Raynor (NFL), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (FA-POR)
Free Agent Signings: WR Marshall Newhouse (PHI)
Trades: The Dragons got some D-line help in the shape of Josh Boyd from Pittsburgh. To get him they opted to send special teamer and 3rd down back Jay Ajayi to the Maulers.
Biggest Move So Far: For a team that looks like they are starting to rebuild, the Dragons have done very little so far. Maybe they are waiting for Coach Riley to get his feet under him, but we expected more movement at both wideout and possibly at QB as well.
Needs to be Met: WR, LB, QB, and kicker are all holes to fill, but if Seattle wants to improve as a team, they need to get more aggressive on the D-line. Too many games were lost due to poor line play on defense.
T-Draft Prospects: If the Dragons want to replace Nate Burleson with a deep threat receiver, John Ross of UW could be the perfect T-Draft pick. If not, then how about safety Budda Baker, DT Elijah Quails, or CB Kevin King?
Five Early Offseason Winners and 4 Early Offseason Losers
We all know that USFL season is a rough and tumble affair, producing clear winners and losers, ups and downs, surprise successes and big disappointments. But the offseason is really not that dissimilar, especially for those who follow all the ups and downs of player personnel decisions. Whether landing the perfect free agent, making the deal that brings a star to town, or landing that mid-draft gem who turns into an All-USFL player, the wins can be enormous. But, by the same token, teams can see their rosters decimated by free agency, can make a deal only to have a bust on their hands, or even worse, a locker room cancer, or they can make the wrong picks in the draft. After all, for every Michael Jordan there is a Sam Bowie. For every Marino there is a Todd Blackledge, and for every Barry Sanders a Tony Mandarich.
So, just 10 weeks into the offseason, are we really ready to declare winners and losers? Not really, but we can say who we think has come out looking good after the initial free agency blitz and the first NFL-USFL portal. Still a long way to go, and, of course, we really won’t know which moves worked and which did not until the season plays out, but for an early peak at whose offseason moves have impressed us, here is our list of 5 early fall winners and 5 potential losers:
WINNER: Washington Head Coach Sean Payton
First off, we do want to congratulate the Feds for clawing to 8-8 last year, but with the club not having finished over .500 since 2013, and with a playoff record of 3-6 when his teams did make the playoffs, is anyone luckier than Sean Payton to have a job? Well, this year he may need to earn it, because the retirement of Deuce McCallister is a huge hit to the Federals. However, even with the departure of their “face of the program”, Washington may come out stronger. They will need to address the HB position, of course, but the addition of WR Kelvin Benjamin and Shawne Merriman in the first 2 weeks of free agency is already a huge boost to the Federals’ chances. Benjamin, in a WR group with Brandon LaFell, Steve Breaston and supersonic sophomore Tyreek Hill will be a very scary group to defend. On Defense, Merriman steps in at MLB, with two strong linebackers to either side in D’Qwell Jackson and Alec Ogletree. Washington could well be an oft-picked dark horse this year with these improvements, if, and only if they can find serviceable starting HB.
LOSER: The Skyhawks’ Defensive Coordinator
We have no idea who is going to be tasked with running the Skyhawk defense in 2017. That won’t come until they get a head coach, which may not be until January. Well, good luck to him. He will need it. St. Louis had the 18th ranked defense last year, and since then have lost LBs Angelo Crowell and Brandon Siler to the NFL, leaving them with an as-yet unfilled hole in their linebacker group that will be tough to fill. The Skyhawks have almost no cap room to sign veterans, and only 8 total draft picks this year. Whoever gets picked to run this defense will have a handful. The front 7 is a disaster, and the only saving grace in the secondary is CB Vontae Davis, perhaps the only defender on St. Louis who is top 10-15 at his position in the league.
WINNER: Ohio QB Christian Hackenberg
Yes, Ohio is in the Eli Manning sweepstakes, but they don’t seem willing to throw the kitchen sink at the free agent QB, and that is a good sign for the 2nd year Penn State QB. What is even better news is that they look very much like a team that wants to put weapons around their young QB, and help protect him. Already they have added guard Travis Bond, a young, powerful blocker who will help Isaiah Pead but also help keep Hackenberg upright. We also really like the addition of Richard Rodgers as a safety valve target for their QB. They need a speedy receiver to join add to sure handed Mario Manningham and Justin Blackmon, someone who could put some fear in the defense. He is not signed yet, but Ohio State’s Curtis Samuel would be a great T-Draft addition, and it seems like the Glory know it, scouting him heavily as their scouts scour the Ohio State film.
LOSER: Oakland QB Joey Harrington
Harrington is one of those QBs who is always in the conversation, but usually on the outside looking in when we discuss which signal callers are “elite” players. He is the clear number one in Oakland, but his job could get a heck of a lot tougher this year. In just 2 short months he has watched as his receiving group disintegrated around him. Keenan Allen is now in Washington. Richard Rodgers in Ohio. Derek Hagan in Las Vegas. And Pierre Garçon is already catching passes from Andrew Luck with the Indianapolis Colts. So, other than Davante Adams, it looks like Harrington will have to adapt to an entirely new receiver group. So far the only additions have been slot receiver Davone Bess and career practice squader Donte Moncrief. Bess had a solid year with 45 receptions in Tampa last year, but that is the first time he has had more than a dozen receptions since 2010. Moncrief has yet to catch a regular season pass in 3 seasons with Birmingham. Congratulations, Joey. Enjoy playing catch with Davante, TE Zach Ertz, and no one else. Better hope the draft brings some playmakers or it could be a long season for the offense.
WINNER: Houston DE's Dante Fowler, Antwan Applewhite, and Tim Crowder
Houston’s pass rushers did quite well last year. The team as a whole finished 6th in the league with 56 team sacks. These three edge rushers contributed 29 of those sacks. But now, after landing the biggest of big fish in free agency, DT Albert Haynesworth, you had better believe Crowder, Fowler, and Applegate are seeing stars, and dollar bill signs, as they can all expect to hit or exceed their sack incentive bonues in 2017. While Calais Campbell was already a star in Orlando when Haynesworth arrived, there is no way Arthur Moats exceeds 10 sacks 3 of the past 4 years without the big guy eating up blockers in the middle. Do not be surprised if Coach Phillips lays off the heavy blitzing in Houston and lets his front 4 go at the QB with only minimal LB help. John McCargo might also feel great about this move, as he now will not be facing double teams nearly as much, and could actually participate in the pass rush. Watch out for this team’s front 4 next year. It could surpass Orlando as the league’s most feared.
LOSER: The Las Vegas Vipers’ Locker Room
One of the most underrated features of a team is their mix of youth and veteran leadership. Well, Coach Neuheisel is going to have plenty of the former but will be sorely lacking in the latter. He loses both his starting QB and his MLB, the heart and QB of the defense. With both Pickett and Hillenmeyer gone, there is a leadership vacuum in Las Vegas. Neuheisel may have to lean on WR Doug Baldwin to help keep the offensive players focused, while the next potential source of leadership in the defense is only entering his 2nd season with the team, safety Antrel Rolle. What makes this worse is that it is very hard to import team leaders, since by their nature new additions to a club rarely have the trust of their teammates. So, Neuheisel will need to find new leaders and prop them up if he wants to maintain control of his squad. That is such a tough task for a first year coach, especially one who is coming in from the college game, without a long pro resume.
WINNER: Portland Head Coach Pep Hamilton
The Stags did not perform as expected last year, and Marcus Mariota had more than a fair share of struggles in his first year as a starter, but things are already beginning to look up for the Stags in 2017. Portland dealt with salary cap hell last year, but that meant that this year the had more than enough cap room to be aggressive, and they have been. The Stags signed 2 solid defenders in the NFL transfer window. Domata Peko will be a nice space-eater in the center of the D-line, and safety Duke Ihenacho is an underrated cover guy who can also lay down some hits. They then went heavy into free agency, adding DE DeMarcus Lawrence, HB Ben Tate, and backup QB Kellen Clemons, who can be a nice calming voice for Mariota. But the biggest move by far came just 2 weeks ago when Portland somehow convinced the Chicago Machine that a HB duo was not the way to go and that Doug Martin was expendable.
Running in a duo with Matt Forte last year, Martin managed to top 1,000 yards and had 15 touchdowns. Why Chicago chose to move him instead of Forte, who had only 837 yards and a paltry 3 touchdowns is beyond us, though we have heard tell of some clashes between Martin and Coach Lovie Smith. So, Chicago’s loss is Portland’s gain, and it is a huge one. The Stags have not been the same since the retirement of Jonahan Stewart, and Martin gives them the one thing that can best help Mariota in 2017, a solid run game. Portland’s receiver group (Brandin Cooks, Alshon Jeffery, Brian Quick and TE Jordan Camperon) is developing, not great yet, but getting better, Now, add in Martin, with Tate and Felix Jones for relief, and you have a pretty darn good supporting cast for the former Oregon QB. That can only help Pep Hamilton build the kind of offense that got him the job with the Stags in the first place.
LOSER: Dallas Head Coach Mike Sherman
It has not been a good offseason for Coach Sherman. The Roughnecks lose their star halfback, Rashard Mendenhall to what many are calling a premature retirement. He also loses 2 of his front 3 from the 3-4 defense. He also loses backup HB Antonio Pittman, backup QB Landry Jones to the Gamblers, WR Percy Harvin to the Outlaws (these are both division rivals), and two members of his secondary, Will Allen and Trumaine McBride to the Bandits. In other words, the cupboard is looking pretty bare. Yes, Dallas did make some moves as well, adding DE Connor Barwin and OT Andrew Whitworth from Chicago, HB Charles Sims from the Maulers, and TE Daniel Fells from Orlando, but the losses are outpacing the gains. And, potentially worst of all, the league is currently investigating his starting QB, Johnny Manziel, for potential conduct violations tied to a car accident in College Station. It appears Manziel was back on campus and may have overindulged. There are no formal charges yet, either from local police or from the league but all indications point to a potential DUI, which could bring with it a significant fine and suspension. With Landry jones now in Houston, that could be a huge issue. Could Sherman’s tenure with the Roughnecks rely on Tyrod Taylor as his starting QB for 4 games or longer?
WINNER: QB Eli Manning
No doubt that Manning is having the time of his life this offseason. He has 8 teams apparently vying for him (3-4 likely very seriously), he is almost certainly going to become one of, if not the highest paid QB in the league, and he will likely be welcomed as a hero wherever he lands. Not bad for a QB who a year ago was being ushered out, asked to mentor his replacement in Memphis, and coming off two pretty unimpressive years in Memphis in which he threw for 24 picks and saw his QB Rating dip into the mid-60’s. Manning had a career season at the ideal time last year. He threw for over 4,000 yards, 27 touchdowns and a 97.4 rating. Not only that but he led his club to the Summer Bowl, demonstrating poise, leadership, and a willingness to accept his role as mentor to Paxton Lynch, all while winning games. It is a mature Manning on the free agency market now. He is not the long term answer for a club, but he is clearly in a place where he can be a huge benefit to a team right now, and perhaps alter his legacy and our perception of him at the same time.
Eight Stories to Watch For in the 2017 Draft
Yes the Draft is over 3 months away, but as we go quiet until January, this is our chance to get the first impressions out there and see how we did when we return post-draft with our 2nd offseason report. Every draft has stories, some tied to specific players, others to teams trying to wheel and deal. Players will rise over the course of the fall College season, others may drop off. Someone will get a late round steal, someone else will have their offseason crushed if the player they covet goes elsewhere. Here is what we see at this very early date as the 10 stories to follow as we gear up for the long winter and January’s draft.
1. Will any of the Big 3 QB prospects survive the T-Draft?
We see three potential top-grade (NFL 1st round) quarterbacks in this year’s draft: Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes, and UNC’s Mitchell Trubisky. With a good season we could see Notre Dame’s Deshone Kizer possibly added to the bunch. While Kizer is likely not going to draw interest outside of the Open Draft, the other three could see a lot of interest. We expect Charlotte to woo Trubisky heavily. With the issues Brandon Wheedon has had, the Monarchs would love nothing more than to protect, select, and sign Trubisky all during the draft week itself. Jacksonville could take a run at Deshaun Watson, but they also could stick with Robert Griffin III (an expensive NFL import to cut loose) and offer their T-Draft pick to a team looking for a dual threat QB. Finally, Mahomes, with a good year at Tech, could be very attractive, but not likely to Houston, who holds Texas Tech rights but is very happy with what they saw from Colt McCoy last year. We could easily see Houston make a deal to move into the top half of the Open Draft and send the rights to Mahomes to Ohio? Las Vegas? Even St. Louis?
2. Where does Corey Davis end up?
It happens every year, one or two potential stars emerge from schools that no USFL team has on their protected list. Last year it was QB Carson Wentz of NDSU, who ended up snubbing the Ohio Glory for the NFL Eagles. WR Corey Davis of Western Michigan is the obvious choice this year, along with East Carolina’s Zay Jones. With receiver always a high priority in the pass-happy USFL, we have no doubt that both Jones and Davis will go within the first 5-10 picks in the league’s open draft. Heck, if St. Louis holds onto their 1st overall pick, we could easily see them go receiver with the pick, having lost Jordy Nelson in the offseason. Seattle is 2nd, and they lost Nate Burleson to retirement. Tampa Bay is 3rd, and June Jones, the new Bandits coach, needs at least 8 receivers on his roster to make the spread run & shoot work. Then at 4 you have Atlanta, who could use a wholesale overhaul of their offense, and at 6 you have Jacksonville, also in the receiver market. With two quality options guaranteed to be available in the Open Draft we could see two receivers taken in the first 5 picks, something that has not happened in the USFL in years.
3. Will Houston trade away their top 2 T-Draft picks, and how much will they get for them?
The Houston Gamblers are the proverbial cat that ate the canary, with a grin as big as a chesire cat when they think about the T-Draft. Two of the draft’s top prospects are at Houston’s protected schools Texas A&M and Texas Tech, and both are in positions that Houston does not see as needs. Houston has a strong pass rush, stronger now with Albert Haynesworth in the middle, so Aggie DE Myles Garrett would be a pure luxury. They are also very happy with Colt McCoy at QB after strong outings relieving Matt Hasselbeck last year, so they are really not in the market for Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes. But other teams are not so lucky. Houston could cash in on their needs, racking up draft picks, perhaps even players, good players, for those two picks. They won’t get a king’s ransom, no team wants to risk it all for a draft pick who has a 50/50 shot of choosing the NFL instead, but they will certainly expand on their draft capital with trades, and could pick up some solid players in the mix. Not a bad position for the Southern Division Champion to be in.
4. Who will rise and who will fall on draft day?
This is so hard to predict. We have the T-Draft which can pull players out of the main Open Draft pool. We have 2/3 of a college season yet to play, so who knows if some of the top prospects will shine even more, get hurt, or fail to deliver down the stretch. We have the long shadow of the NFL as well. It has been known that a player who is very highly rated by the NFL can slip down the draft in the USFL if teams feel that the player is a lock to go to the fall. So, who do we see as possibly falling or rising? Here are 4 names to watch.
Rising: Stanford HB Christian McCaffrey. His talents are pretty self-explanatory, and for a league like the USFL where backs are almost always asked to be receivers as well, he could rise very high in the draft.
Rising: Florida LB Alex Anzalone. We like his pluck and his engine, and we expect USFL teams will value that as well. He projects as a 3rd rounder but we could see him going late in the 1st if there is a team with a veteran MLB or Strong Side LB who needs a protégé.
Falling: DE Jonathan Allen of Alabama. The talent is clearly there, but there are concerns about some statements he has made. He seems luke warm at best at the prospect of joining the Stallions in the T-Draft, something that may cause Birmingham to pass on him. But he has also hinted that he expects to go to the league that offers him the bigger paycheck, which, if he is taken in the first half of the first round in the NFL, almost certainly means the fall league. USFL teams are still wary of any hint that a player is not fully open to the USFL and if they only want a bigger paycheck they could be a major risk to join the NFL.
Falling: QB Taysom Hill of BYU. Look, he’s a great kid, and a heck of an athlete, but those who had him as a 2nd or even 3rd round quarterback option are just not watching the same tape we are. We see a superb athlete who just does not play like, or look like a pocket passer. Even in a league that is open to various styles of play and to running QBs, since the days of Flutie and Reggie Collier, the USFL is still looking for a QB who can throw for 4,000 yards in a good year, and that is not Hill. If he is willing to play as a TE, FB, or even special teamer, we could see a team taking a shot on Hill, but if he wants to be a QB, he is going to have few takers and that will almost certainly make him drop in the draft.
5. What teams are most likely to try to jump up into the Top 10?
This largely depends on who escapes the Territorial Draft, and who covets them, but there are a few teams we would say absolutely need to try to move up. First on that list is Oakland. With two quality receivers guaranteed to be in the draft, the team that lost most of their wideouts this offseason has to prioritize the position and may need to be top 5, even top 3 to get one of the unclaimed speed receivers. Second on my list is Denver. The Gold lost two of their best defenders in CB Patrick Robinson and MLB Shawne Merriman. We would not be surprised at all to see them make a deal to get into the mix in picks 1-7, especially if either Ohio State CB Marshon Lattimore, Alabama CB Marlon Humphrey, or Temple’s Haasan Reddick somehow make it through to the Open Draft.
6. What small school studs will follow their dreams to the USFL?
While the first day of the draft tends to be all about the power schools from the power conferences, the mid-rounds are where we start to see some of the brightest stars of the FCS, even Division II start to hear their names, and in some cases it is these players, the HBCU players, the big fish in the small ponds, or the standouts from the I-AA playoffs (as we still like to call them) find joy in the draft. So, who do we like from these smaller schools? Here are five names to remember:
TE Gerald Everett (South Alabama): A dual-use TE who can block the run and is a solid route runner with good hands.
DE Tanoh Kpassagnon (Villanova): You know the Stars have been scouting this dynamic edge rusher right in their back yards. Don’t be surprised if he ends up in Philly in the T-Draft.
WR Cooper Kupp (Eastern Washington): Kupp is in luck. The USFL Champion Wranglers were given extra pool schools due to the low number of prospects from their usual 3 schools this year, and one of them is EWU, meaning Kupp could get a lot of attention from a very good team that loves to go deep, a perfect fit.
DE Derek Rivers (Youngstown State): Another dynamic edge rusher from a smaller school who could cash in on the league’s obsession with passing and getting to the passer.
LB Ukeme Eligwe (Georgia Southern): The Bulls have Ga Southern as one of their schools and they have liked what they see from the son of Nigerian immigrants.
7. Will we see kickers or punters drafted this year?
Well, the over-under on kicking game specialists being drafted is usually around 2 per year, but we may see a few more this year. There are several teams in the league who saw their kickers either retire (David Green), join the NFL (Prater, Crosby, Rayner), or jump teams in the USFL Carpenter), and much the same with the punters, so there is going to be a market. And while normally teams look at the free agent ranks or wait until the days after the draft to find college kickers, there are a few names to keep an eye on as possible draft day investments. Among them are placekickers Jake Elliott (Memphis), Zane Gonzalez (ASU), Harrison Butker (Ga Tech) and Younghoe Koo (Ga Southern), along with punters Rigoberto Sanchez (Hawaii), Matt Haack (ASU), and Colby Wadman (UC Davis).
8. Who has the most to risk this draft?
So many teams depend on the draft, it is hard to pick just one…no…wait…it isn’t. The St. Louis Skyhawks are the obvious choice. They have fallen from the league champion in 2012 to the 1st pick in the draft in only 4 years, just fired their respected coach, saw their best wideout run away at the drop of a hat, and have decided that they don’t need a new coach until the NFL season ends in early January. That means that their (somewhat shaky) GM is running the show, and he needs to build a team that not only makes sense but can attract a coach who already has an NFL gig. That is a tall order. Yes, there is still some talent in St. Louis, but the defense looks like a disaster and the pieces are showing a lot of wear and tear. If the Skyhawks, on a very limited budget, have to rely on the draft to bring new life to the roster, they cannot afford to blow it. There is not much pressure on the T-Draft, except to sign the guys you pick, but in the Open Draft, especially when you have the 1st overall pick, you had better go for a sure fire star, a player with immediate impact and one who will cherish being the 1st USFL pick more than the shot at going to the NFL. No sweat, right? Yeah, I would not want to be Terry McDonough, the GM in St. Louis this January. Just too many ways to do it wrong and too few paths to success in St. Louie.
We will return in mid-January with a full draft recap, all the winter signings and trades, the rookie signing frenzy and NFL competition, and a preview of the upcoming USFL-NFL transfer window, each teams’ last chance to fill gaps and find impact players before the season kicks off. Until then, enjoy college ball, the NFL, and your holiday season. This Week in the USFL will be right there waiting for you in the new year.
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