We have our first playoff team locked in. Arizona got the W they needed, though not as easy as they had hoped, to push themselves from contender to playoff certainty. Houston could not do the same this week, falling at home to a very plucky San Diego Thunder squad, a team itself fighting not only to make the postseason, but to earn a bye week as well. We also saw New Jersey make a statement in the Northeast, New Orleans squeeze past Washington in overtime, and Denver record one of the season’s biggest upset victories in Orlando. It was, in other words, a wild week with a lot of playoff implications. This week also saw the reveal of the new Oklahoma Outlaws, a new team that recalls the league’s early history. We will recap all the games, explore the new/old Outlaws, and discuss all the playoff impact of the past week, but we start with a story about 2 clubs that have already surprised us and are now well on their way to being the Cinderella stories of the year, both of them.
Cinderella Seasons: How San Diego & Memphis Are Doing It.
It seems to happen almost every season, and yet it always catches us by surprise. Almost every season there is a team that begins the year with limited expectations, coming out of nowhere, and somehow finds the formula to alter their destiny and outpace the perceptions of their capacities. This year we have two such teams, both expected to finish at or near the bottom of their divisions and both, now 3/4 of the way through the season, proving to be among the league’s best. So how have San Diego and Memphis done it? How have they set aside doubters and found a way to surpass expectations? The formula for each club has been very different, but the common aspect of both is a belief within the locker room that they are not overperforming, but rather that those on the outside simply underestimated what was possible.
San Diego was ranked as the 20th best club of 28 USFL franchises in our preseason rankings. They now stand at the 2nd ranked team after 12 weeks, sitting pretty at 9-3, already 2 games ahead of the 7-9 finish predicted for them, and all alone in first place in the Pacific, not down in 4th place as was predicted. So, what has gone right in San Diego?
The first and most obvious positive for San Diego has been the defense. The Thunder rank 2nd in the league in points allowed, giving up a measly 16.8 points each week. That, paired with the 3rd best run defense, has San Diego in controllable scenarios most week, avoiding big deficits and keeping the offense from desperate actions that produce more risk and more chance of failure. The Thunder defense, led by LBs A. J. Hawk and Shantee Orr, have only allowed 2 teams all season to score more than 20 points. The secondary, led by CB Justin Gilbert, have 13 picks on the season, tied for 4th in the league, and the front 7 is largely responsible for opposing teams gaining only 64.9 yards per game on the ground.
The second major change for the Thunder is in the run game. Last year the Thunder were poor in the first half of the season, then traded away Marshawn Lynch and were absolutely horrible in the second half of the season. The team averaged fewer than 50 yards per game in 2015. Compare that to this season, with the arrival of former Invader Ryan Willams, San Diego is averaging over 108 yards per game, good enough for 7th in the league. The ability to run has largely kept pressure off of Joe Webb, and for a few games Christian Ponder. The result, while not one of the league’s most explosive offenses, is a balanced attack that can win in multiple ways, particularly if 20 points is the target needed to get the W.
In Memphis the formula has been very different. This was supposed to be a transition year, a time when Eli Manning would pass the torch to Paxton Lynch and the offense would likely sputter along. Memphis was picked to finish last in the Southern division, chosen as the 22nd best club in the league, and expected to struggle to a 6-10 record. They now sit at 9-3, tied with Houston for the lead of the division and have already proven their authenticity with big wins over clubs like New Jersey, Oakland, New Orleans and Baltimore. They have been dynamic on offense, averaging nearly 30 points per game (29.2) while running the 2nd best offense in yardage in the league, with over 400 yards per game. Eli Manning, who was supposed to be passing the torch at the end of his contract is making a case that he can be an elite QB in the league, and may well be playing himself into one of the biggest free agent contracts of the upcoming offseason. Memphis may now have to decide if they want to move on to rookie Paxton Lynch or try to resign Manning for the near future.
The run game has been a revelation for the Showboats as well, averaging 115.4 yards per game, with both Todd Gurley (739 yards) and Anthony Allen (607 yards) performing well above preseason expectations. The two have combined for 15 touchdowns already this year and Gurley could well reach 1,000 yards by year’s end. In the passing game both Mark Clayton and Robert Woods, while not speed receivers, are proving that there is room to get open with crisp routes and good timing with their QB. Tight Ends Jermichael Finley and Luke Stocker have combined for 73 receptions, nearly 700 yards, and 5 touchdowns, making Memphis a tough club to defend.
While the Memphis defense is not quite where San Diego’s is, they are not the sieves we used to see. Coach Rex Ryan has turned up the heat on opposing quarterbacks, with Mario Williams and Antonio Smith pairing for 14 sacks this season. The new, more aggressive defense, is ranked 13th in scoring, not league elite, but good enough when your offense is as effective as the Showboats have been this year. The ‘Boats have proven to be tough to corral on offense and tough enough on defense to make comebacks difficult when Memphis gets on the board first.
Will we see one of these Cinderella stories reach Summer Bowl 2016? That is hard to say, but both clubs have already surpassed expectations and both are looking very strong coming down the stretch, with division titles and potential playoff byes possibly within reach. That is more than most expected of them 3 months ago, but just more evidence that preseason picks are based on flawed info, never able to take into account the full capacity of a team, or in this case, two teams, that believe in themselves.
TEXAS OUTLAWS 20 ARIZONA WRANGLERS 23
It is very likely a surprise to no one that this matchup ended up being our Game of the Week. Yes, there were other games with exciting finishes, or overtime thrillers, but when you looked at the two clubs involved here, there was little doubt this would be a game worth watching. You had 9-2 Arizona, generally considered the best team in the league for most of the season, coming off a tough home loss to Orlando. Then you had the 8-3 Texas Outlaws, playing the entire season essentially on the road, but only 1 game behind the Wranglers every step of the way, coming to Glendale without their star QB available. This game was all set up for drama, big performances, gut check moments, and a big finish, and that is what we got.
The game was surprisingly close throughout, with Texas taking an early lead and Arizona coming right back. We had a 24-point 2nd quarter and both clubs finished the day with a chance to win it. We had surprises, like Kyle Boller throwing for more yards than David Carr, or Kadeem Carey being the star on the ground despite only having 7 touches. You had big games from big players, with Marques Colston racking up 135 yards and a score and Adam Carriker providing pressure on Boller throughout. And you had coaching adjustments, with both teams gaining and losing momentum at various points in the game.
For all the drama of the game, this one started relatively slowly, as many heavyweight fights do. The first quarter saw only a single score, a 32-yard Forbath field goal for Texas, as both offenses set up plays that would pay off later and both defenses limited opportunities. It was not until the last possession of the quarter that Arizona even crossed into Texas territory a drive that would produce a game-tying field goal on the 2nd play of the 2nd quarter.
The second quarter would be the exact opposite of the first, with big plays galore. It began with a quick strike drive from Texas, with Marshawn Lynch hitting on a 16-yard run, followed by two long passes from Boller, a 21-yard catch and run to Justin Hunter and the scoring play, a 25-yard corner route to Colston. Texas reclaimed the lead with the play, with Boller escaping from Carriker’s pressure and finding Colston just before his feat would land him out of bounds. After review, the score stood and Texas kicked off with a 7-point lead.
That lead would double just 2 plays later when David Carr somehow missed the timing on a throw to his TE Jimmie Graham, The ball sailed well ahead of Graham, easy pickin’s for LB Vontez Burfict of the Outlaws, who picked up a caravan and returned the throw 32 yards for a score and a 17-3 Texas lead. It was a shocking mistake from the MVP candidate QB, and one that for the first time had the Arizona fans in U. of Phoenix Stadium nervous.
The Wranglers would finish the half by calming their fans with a good drive of their own. The drive opened with the first of several long outside runs by Kadeem Carey, this one for 22 yards as he scooted past the reach of the linebackers and into the secondary. It was followed by a 40 yard catch and run by Antonio Bryant, taking advantage of single coverage as the Texans continued to shift coverage towards Larry Fitzgerald on the other side. Only 2 plays later, from the 2, Fitzgerald would break down the coverage and catch the ball in the back of the endzone, a high ball that reminded many of “The Catch” in San Francisco, with Fitzgerald having a significantly better vertical leap than Dwight Clark ever did. It was a dynamic play and a momentum shifter for the Wranglers.
The second half saw both defenses again pull their weight. In a third quarter that saw David Carr throw a second pick, this one more on the receiver who tipped the ball up than on the QB himself, and saw Kyle Boller return the favor with an underthrown ball that fell to Justin Bethel in the Wrangler secondary. The third quarter produced only 2 field goals, but that was fine with Texas who preserved a solid 7-point lead at 20-13. But the fourth would see that lead evaporate.
Early in the quarter, Arizona got the break they needed when Joe Haden stripped the ball from the hands of Marquise Goodwin, only to recover the loose ball as well. It took over 3 minutes for the referees to confirm the call of a fumble as Coach Landry of Texas challenged that it was actually an incompletion, but with the call Arizona took over in Texas territory. They would struggle to move the ball, with Frank Gore, who struggled all game, gaining only 2 yards on first and second down combined. Rather than throw from the shotgun, Arizona used a delayed handoff to Kadeem Carey and the Wrangler star of the day took it for 11 yards and a first down. Facing a third down again 2 plays later, Carr missed on a throw to Bryant, and Arizona was forced to go for 3, making the score 20-16 with 8:45 left in the game.
Texas would move the ball into field goal range for Kai Forbath, but on a third down play that saw Carriker crash through the right side, a desperate hold kept him from reaching Kyle Boller, but was seen by the ref, forcing a 10-yard penalty and putting Texas out of range, forcing a punt.
Arizona took over with 5:51 left, and fully intent on putting a winning score on the board. They suffered a holding call on first down in an odd twist of fate, turning 1st and 10 on their 21 to 1st and 20 on the 11. After another short Gore run and a missed throw to Demarcus Robinson, Arizona faced a 3rd and 17. Again they turned to Carey, this time with a swing pass that was ruled a lateral. Carey took the ball in space, got a great block from RT Shaun Lauvao to open up space, and darted for 45 yards, a huge play that got the Wrangler crowd to their feet. It was the only big play of the drive, but it was more than enough to spark the Wranglers. It would take the Wranglers 11 more plays to get in the endzone, but when they did, with 1:53 left on the clock, it gave them the lead that had eluded them all game. Carr had hit Bryant for only his 3rd catch of the game, a 6-yard slant and out route that caught the corner on inside coverage, protecting the slant. Bryant’s catch and the ensuing Parson kick gave Arizona a 3-point lead, but with time for Texas to tie things up if they could get in range for Forbath.
Texas’s offense came onto the field, intent to do just that. They had 2 timeouts left, nearly 2 minutes, and needed to reach only the Arizona 35 to be in fair range for their kicker. Their first three plays produced only 8 yards, forcing them to go for it on 4th down, but when you have Marshawn Lynch as your main back, short yardage is not usually a concern. Lynch powered into the heart of the Arizona line and emerged 3 yards later with a first down. Texas was on the move. They would gain another first down, to their own 44 on a Boller bootleg throw to Justin Hunter. But then things would go south.
On first down a false start put them back five. On their next play, Jahvid Best would catch the ball behind the line and get blown up by a fierce hit from Troy Polamalu. That produced 2nd and 17. They tried to catch Arizona off their guard by sending Best on a draw play, but no such luck. The play only picked up 2 yards and forced Texas to use one of their time outs. That left them with 3rd and 15. They put Lynch in the backfield, spread out wide Colston, Goodwin, Hunter and Jordan Shipley, and tried to get it all back with one deep shot to Colston. But Joe Haden was there to break it up. 4th and 15 and the game on the line. Texas again spread the defense out, but Arizona, rather than stick to a pure shell defense, opted to blitz Polamalu. The gambit paid off, with the Arizona safety bursting through the line untouched. Boller did not have a chance and crumpled to the ground without even getting the ball out. Drive over, game over, and Arizona claimed a 2-game lead in the division. The two will meet again this upcoming week in one of the highly unpopular 1-and-1 series the USFL put into this week’s schedule, and while Texas fans can take solace in that they came within 3 points of Arizona without Joe Flacco in the lineup, they cannot be happy about facing the 10-2 Wranglers so quickly.
PHILADELPHIA 6 NEW JERSEY 31
Maurice Jones-Drew had his best game of the year and helped the Generals sweep the series with Philadelphia, giving them sole possession of first at the same time. MJD rushed for 119 yards and 2 scores as the Generals blew past a mistake-prone Philadelphia squad for their 8th win on the season. Brett Hundley added TD passes to OBJ and Miles Austin and the Generals dominated on defense to take over first place in the NE Division.
POTG: Generals’ HB Maurice Jones-Drew: 24 Att, 119 Yds, 2 TD, 3 Rec, 14 Yds
CHICAGO 31 PITTSBURGH 14
The Machine even their record at 6-6 and stay in the Wild Card hunt with a decisive victory over the Vipers at Wynn Arena. The Machine built up a 21-0 lead in the first half before the Vipers got on the board, thanks in large part to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who spread the ball around on his way to a 17 of 24, 158-yard, 2-TD day. Matt Forte contributed 114 yards on the ground and the Chicago defense sacked Jeff Tuel 5 times as Las Vegas struggled to mount an effective offense.
POTG: Chicago LB Manti Te’o: 3 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 Int
PORTLAND 6 MEMPHIS 44
This one was ugly all the way around for Coach Hamilton and the Stags as they drop their 4th in a row. Eli Manning threw for 3 scores, Todd Gurley broke 100 yards, and TE Luke Stocker had a career game with 142 yards on the day as Memphis rolled over the hapless Stags. Marcus Mariota threw three picks and Felix Jones lost a fumble as Portland made it easy for Memphis to gain on Houston in the race for the Southern Division.
POTG: Memphis TE Luke Stocker: 4 Rec, 142 Yds, 1 TD
SAN DIEGO 24 HOUSTON 17
The Thunder continue to prove their mettle, knocking off the Eastern Conference leader thanks to a nice game from QB Joe Webb and a solid defensive outing that limited Houston without a score in the second half. With the game knotted up at 17 since the half, San Diego got the game winner with 2:40 left to play when Webb hit slot receiver Danny Amendola for an 8-yard score.
POTG: Thunder FS Mark Barron: 1 Int, 1 Def TD
BALTIMORE 26 OHIO 17
The Blitz improve to 7-5, one game behind New Jersey, with a nice road win in Columbus. Down 16-17 after an Isaiah Pead 4th quarter touchdown, Baltimore rallied behind Ben Roethlisberger, scoring on a 27-yard catch and run by Quinn Johnson and adding a safety on the next Ohio possession, the Blitz took a 9-point lead with less than 2 minutes to play and held on for the W.
POTG: Blitz DT Ellis Wyms: 8 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 Sfty
WASHINGTON 24 NEW ORLEANS 30 OVERTIME
It took overtime, but the Breakers won their 7th game in the last 8 and pulled a game back in the Southern Division, sending Washington out of first in the NE Division at the same time. The Feds took the lead with 1:52 left, but there was enough time for Drew Brees to get the team in field goal range for Caleb Sturgis. In overtime, Kenny Britt took a short slant route from Brees and turned it into the game winning score with a brilliant run after the catch.
POTG: Breaker QB Drew Brees: 30/37, 338 Yds, 2 TD, 1 Int
ST. LOUIS 7 MICHIGAN 18
The Panthers did not look smooth on offense with Taylor Heinecke again under center, but they had more than enough to upend the Skyhawks at Ford Field. St. Louis was limited to only 162 total yards as the Michigan defense sacked Ricky Stanzi 5 times and held Eddie Lacy to only 44 yards rushing. The Panthers got two LeVeon Bell TD runs to go along with his 112 yards rushing, and that was all they needed to take the win and move to 7-5 on the year, still a game up on Chicago in the Central.
POTG: Michigan HB LeVeon Bell: 28 Att, 112 Yds, 2 TD
ATLANTA 0 TAMPA BAY 30
If Bruce Gradkowski had any dreams of becoming Atlanta’s full time starter, they went out the window after this game. Against one of the league’s worst defenses, Gradkowski completed only 11 of 30 throws, with 2 picks and 4 sacks on the day. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott is making his case to remain the starter in Tampa Bay, even with pat White returning from injury. Prescott went 15 of 20 and threw for 2 scores for the Bandits as they earn win number 3 and move ahead of Atlanta in the standings.
POTG: Tampa HB Rex Burkhead: 17 Att, 84 Yds, 1 TD, 2 Rec, 24 Yds, 1 TD
CHARLOTTE 15 JACKSONVILLE 20
Jacksonville and backup QB Adrian McPherson, send Charlotte to their 5th straight loss. McPherson threw for 232 and 2 scores and Cadillac Williams finally scored a TD for the Bulls as they went back to a more traditional QB pocket style. Charlotte got 103 yards from former NFL superstar Adrian Peterson, but could not muster a game winning drive when they needed one in the 4th, giving Jacksonville their 5th win and sinking the once 6-1 Monarchs to .500 at 6-6.
POTG: Jacksonville LB Jarret Johnson: 12 Tckl, 4 TFL, 1 FF
SEATTLE 15 LOS ANGELES 17
An uncomfortably close game for the Express, but a late Dan Bailey field goal helps propel them to 7-5 and in playoff position. Jacoby Brissett went 20 of 40 and threw for 2 Seattle touchdowns, but a nice day from Reggie Bush and a late drive led by Sam Bradford got LA in position to win the game, and the right leg of Dan Bailey paid off with a field goal at 19 seconds left in regulation.
POTG: Express MLB Clay Matthews: 7 Tck, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PDef
BIRMINGHAM 12 OAKLAND 24
Early touchdowns from Richard Rodgers and Donald Brown helped put Oakland up early and they held on by limiting Birmingham to only 38 yards rushing. Brown and Knile Davis combined for 96 yards and Joey Harrington went 21 of 28 for 275 and 2 scores as the Invaders move 2 games over .500 and well inside the Western playoff picture, despite Amari Cooper’s 136 yards receiving.
POTG: Invader WR Davante Adams: 4 Rec, 81 Yds, 1 TD
LAS VEGAS 3 DALLAS 38
The Vipers were hoping to get back in the playoff picture, but instead they get dismantled by Johnny Manziel and the Roughnecks. The Dallas QB threw for 4 touchdowns, completing 24 of 27 throws and the Dallas defense Held Las Vegas out of the endzone all day, helped by 10 penalties by the sloppy Viper squad.
POTG: Dallas QB Johnny Manziel: 24/27, 235 Yds, 4 TD, 0 Int
DENVER 16 ORLANDO 13
A huge upset in Florida, where the Gold and Von Miller pressured Russel Wilson all game. Miler finished the game with 3 sacks and 8 QB pressures as Denver threw the Renegades off their game entirely. Denver’s lone touchdown was from the defense as well, with DE Justice Cole forcing a fumble that DT Ndamukong Suh scooped up and rumbled into the endzone. That plus 3 Greg Zeurlein field goals proved enough as Orlando could not get into the endzone in the second half.
POTG: Denver DE Von Miller: 6 Tck, 3 TFL, 3 Sck
No Easy Answers as Charlotte Drops 5th in a Row
How does a team that raced out to a 6-1 start suddenly find themselves at 6-6? How do they drop their next 5 and seem to be completely out of their depth? What went so wrong? Those are the questions as Charlotte dropped their 5th game in a row this week in Jacksonville. After a season start that saw the Monarchs sweep Tampa Bay to open the season, knock off New Orleans, Orlando, and Atlanta twice, the past 5 weeks have been a disaster.
It began with a tough 22-20 loss in LA, an acceptable stumble on a long road trip against an improving Express club. But then they returned home and took a 2nd loss, this time to New Jersey. Week 10 saw them fall to the Texas Outlaws, but certainly they would rebound at home against Birmingham in Week 11. Nope. The Stallions embarrassed Charlotte 37-9 in their worst loss yet. Then this week, against a Bulls team reeling from the loss of Robert Griffin III and forced to adjust their entire gameplan around veteran backup Adrian McPherson, Charlotte thought they had to have the upper hand. A 20-15 loss in front of a lot of boo birds in USA Bank Stadium was not what the Monarchs wanted or expected.
And so now they head into the final 4 games, which include a rematch with Jacksonville, and two tough road games at Orlando and at Memphis, there is real concern that a season which started with such promise is turning into a disaster that could produce a 10-loss season unless something changes. So what has gone wrong?
Fans, of course, point to QB Brandon Wheedon, whose 21 picks lead the league, 4 more than 2nd place. Others point to the injury of Darren McFadden and the slow return of Adrian Peterson to action after coming over from the NFL. Others still look to the defense, which began the year holding all 6 opponents in their 6 wins below 20 points, even shutting out Atlanta 30-0 in Week 5. That defense has softened up as the season progressed, with the 37 points given up to Birmingham being the low point. But it does not appear to be any one thing, rather it is a symphony of dysfunction. Missed opportunities partnered with too many turnovers, too few big plays, and not nearly enough energy, that is the formula that has Charlotte looking more like a classic flop than a rebound story.
Coach Jim Mora’s team has made the playoffs each of the past 5 seasons, with a Summer Bowl appearance in 2012, so there may not yet be panic in the front office, but this is not looking like a club that can bounce back and make a late run for even a Wild Card. This looks very much like a team that has lost its focus, and its ability to pull out close games. For a club that has not suffered a spate of injuries, or lost its quarterback, this is a sour turn of events and one that will certainly raise questions over the offseason. But there are still 4 more games to play, and Charlotte has to find a focus for the next month, a way forward or they could well tear themselves apart pointing fingers and assessing blame.
Rookie Class Check-In
Twelve weeks down, 4 to go, and the rookie class of 2016 is shaping up as a pretty solid one. Not every pick has panned out, but we are seeing solid contributions from several key signings. We have not really gotten a good look at QB Paxton Lynch, but several other players have had their opportunities, and the results have been pretty good. Here are eight rookies who are turning some heads this year, some regularly, others when given a chance to shine.
Derrick Henry, HB-PHI
The frontrunner for Rookie of the Year is still on pace for a 1,200 yard season, but recent weeks have begun to show signs that perhaps the Stars are a bit too reliant on Henry game in and game out. After putting up 140 on the Renegades in week 10, Henry has had two sub-par games, rushing for only 45 and 59 yards the past two weeks. With 246 carries already, and following a fall where he touched the ball over 300 times, is Henry hitting a wall or will he push through as Philadelphia makes a last month surge towards the postseason?
Jacoby Brissett, QB-SEA
When we looked at the QBs coming from college to the USFL, Brissett was not the one we expected to be a designated starter without injury to the veteran on their team, but after a truly bizarre and unsettling start to the year for Byron Leftwich, Coach Stump Mitchell made the switch. The results? Brissett has been an improvement, throwing 7 touchdowns to only 1 pick while throwing for 884 yards since coming into the games in Week 8. 5 games is not much of a resume, but what we have seen so far looks like it has long term potential.
Dak Prescott, QB-TBY
He was not supposed to be the starter, not by a longshot, but when Pat White was injured in Week 1 action, the Bandits called on the former Mississippi State QB to step in. It has been a rough ride with the Bandits, with Prescott going 3-8 over his 10 week stint, but there are signs that he may well be ready for prime time. Prescott’s 76.4 rating is not going to light the league on fire, but he is above water with 12 TDs to 8 picks, and the game seems to be slowing down for him. Pat White is possibly back from his injury in the next week, so the question for Mike Shula is whether or not to change horses midstream or to let Prescott finish the year and show the team if he could be the future for the Bandits.
Kenyan Drake-HB-ATL
Another rookie who was not expected to start, but who was thrust into a lead role when the starter, in this case veteran Chris Ivory, went down to season-ending injury. Since taking over as the top back in the Atlanta attack in Week 3, Kenyan has had solid performances but no break out game. The Fire seem to be limiting his touches (he has yet to reach 20 attempts in any game), and are mixing in LeRon McClain and Raymond Williams frequently. Drake is averaging a respectable 3.7 YPC, which is better than either McClain or Williams, but the question is whether or not the Fire know how to use his talents.
Hunter Henry—TE-BIR
The Stallions’ year has not been what fans had hoped for, but one bright spot has been their rookie tight end. Hunter is currently third on the team with 41 receptions. He has racked up 300 yards and has proven to be an effective safety valve for Cam Newton, outpacing even veteran slot receiver Julian Edelman in that area. The Stallions sacked both of their coordinators recently, so there is a lot of uncertainty about the offense right now, but giving more looks to Hunter Henry may be an answer for the future.
Will Fuller-WR-CHI
The Chicago offense has flourished with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm, now Top 10 in both yardage and scoring. That has been due largely to Fitzie’s rapport with Aaron Dobson and Michael Floyd. Rookie speedster Fuller has had a very limited role. He has 18 targets and 11 catches in his first 12 games, not exactly lighting the world on fire, and yet, when he has the ball in his hands, he has been effective. He has 3 scores in his 11 catches. We should keep an eye on him next year as he grows in both confidence and physicality after an offseason to develop.
Scooby Wright-LB-ARZ
Wright was not the most highly recruited player out of college, but his rookie year with the Wranglers has been impressive. He is currently 6th on the team with 47 tackles, has been an effective blitzer (3 sacks) and has forced 2 fumbles. He is rarely out of position and seems to bring high energy to every play. Arizona is very happy having him on the field, especially now that Karlos Dansby has been sidelined by injury.
Deion Bush-FS-ORL
One of the revelations of the season so far for Orlando, Bush has been solid as a first year starter at Free Safety. Learning from SS Chad Scott, Bush has 35 tackles, 2 picks, 3 sacks, and a very solid pass defense record. He spends most of his time playing center field, but has, on occasion, gotten the chance to rush the passer as well. Orlando is allowing only 18.4 points per game and Bush is a big reason for that, keeping plays in front of him and helping to limit the number of big plays from opposing quarterbacks.
Other rookies to track over the next month and into 2017 include DT Chris Jones (LA), QB Christian Hackenberg (OHI), WR Tyreek Hill (WSH), CB Jalen Ramsey (TBY), and LB Myles Jack (SD).
Prescott Playing for 2017
The Tampa Bay Bandits will be sitting this year’s playoffs out. That is known. At 3-9 they are not making a late run. They are looking at the offseason and determining what positions need priority. Quarterback has been one of those positions the past two years, with Tampa Bay taking draft day shots first at FSU’s Jameis Winston (2015 Draft) and then cutting a deal with the Oakland Invaders to select Cal’s Jarred Goff (2016 Draft). Neither move panned out and both players are not happily signed to NFL contracts. The Bandits did sign a relatively highly regarded QB in the last draft however, Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott. The double-down tactic used by drafting two QBs got the Bandits a player who at least came in with some credentials.
That player found himself thrust into an unexpected starting job after just 1 week of action, as Bandit starter Pat White went down to injury in the opening game of the year. Since then it has been the rookie at the helm for Tampa Bay, and while the season now holds little positive for the Bandits, for Dak Prescott this final month of action could well determine his future. If he plays well, then the Bandits may well be willing to stick with him in 2017 and prioritize other needs, and there are many. If he struggles, they may well decide that another big gesture is needed and another QB prospect a necessity, potentially pushing Prescott right back to the bench.
By all accounts, Prescott has not been the main reason for Tampa Bay’s struggles. They have absolutely no run game at all, even with the midseason trade that brought former NFL back Chris Johnson to town, they simply cannot muster a consistent run game. The offensive line has struggled, forcing Prescott to scramble far more than should be expected, and the receivers have simply not been finding space in the secondary often enough. All this and a defense that gives up nearly 350 yards each game are all major issues for Tampa Bay. A rookie QB who has managed to throw for over 2.500 yards and has more TDs (12) than picks (8) may actually be a sign that they have one piece of the puzzle in place. If Prescott can avoid an end of season swoon, with a club that has no mission other than for players to prove their worth, the young QB may well take his position off the priority list and give ownership reason to build other pieces around him. No one expects Prescott to suddenly turn in some Flacco-esque or Big Ben style games, but if he can hold his own despite all the issues around him, it seems logical that the Bandits would give him a 2nd year and try to provide him with both better protection and more options on offense. That is the hope that Prescott has to take into the season’s final month, a 4-week audition for the job he has held most of the year.
Four 5-7 Teams and Their Chances for a Wild Card Run
We have one month left of play in the 2016 USFL regular season, and presently there are 4 clubs which we would say are on the cusp. Each sits at 5-7, which means that only a 4-game win streak would end their year with a winning record. And yet, in each case, these clubs are alive for a Wild Card and may well have a shot even if they were to finish at 8-8. So, what are the odds for Jacksonville, Ohio, Denver, and Las Vegas to make a run and sneak into the postseason? Let’s take a look at each.
JACKSONVILLE
Remaining games: @ Orlando, @ Charlotte, @ Birmingham, Tampa Bay
Well, three of the four remaining games are against teams at or below .500, including the slumping Charlotte Monarchs, so a 3-1 run to reach 8-8 on the year seems plausible. We are not a fan of having to go on the road the next 3 weeks, but Jacksonville at least has a shot with this run of games. The problem here is that they are playing out the season without their starting QB, and while Adrian McPherson played well this past week against Charlotte, we are not so sure that the Bulls have enough on offense to pull 3 of 4 out. Add to this the fact that the 7th place team in the Eastern Playoffs is already 2 games up at 7-5, and that both Washington and Baltimore hold that 7-5 record, 8-8 may well not be enough, though it would be a nice mark for the Bulls, who finished last year at 5-11.
OHIO
Remaining games: @ St. Louis, St. Louis, Michigan, Oakland.
We did not expect much out of Ohio this year, so even sitting at 5-7 right now seems like a pretty solid result. They have made a switch at QB, with Christian Hackenberg taking over for Brock Osweiler, and that has helped inspire them to back-to-back wins over Las Vegas and Denver, but this week’s loss to Baltimore shows they still have a way to go. Unlike the Bulls, Ohio finishes with 3 of 4 at home, including the 2nd half of a 1-and-1 with the 2-10 St. Louis Skyhawks. If Ohio can sweep this series with St. Louis, it puts them at 7-7 with 2 weeks left. Problem is their last two games are tough ones, even in Columbus. They will need no worse than a 1-1 split in those final games to finish at 8-8, which may well get them a shot at a Wild Card. Ahead of them right now are 7-5 Los Angeles, Michigan, and Oakland. They need 1, perhaps 2 of those teams to go 1-3 at best, but better yet 0-4 over the final month for Ohio to sneak past them.
DENVER
Remaining Games: Tampa Bay, @ Dallas, Texas, Atlanta
Another club with 3 home games remaining, and 3 games against some pretty bad opponents. We could easily see the Gold sweep the Bandits, Roughnecks and Fire, and Denver has shown they can knock off the big boys with wins over both Arizona and Orlando this year. But Denver has also lost some games they should not have, at home to Las Vegas and Dallas, and on the road in Portland. They rose up this week by surprising Orlando, but last week’s loss to Ohio could be rough, especially if tie breakers are needed. We think Denver’s best shot is to go 4-0, finishing at 9-7 and hoping that both of the 7-5 clubs in the Pacific stumble.
LAS VEGAS
Remaining games: Chicago, Seattle, Dallas, @ Orlando
We look at this schedule and we think there is a good chance Las Vegas can go 3-0 before facing Orlando. Not guaranteed, of course, as Chicago is a team that certainly has playoff hopes itself. But if they can sweep the next three games, all at home in Wynn Arena, then they may well get the luck of the draw. If Orlando has locked up a 1st or 2nd place position and a bye week, they may well rest their starters in Week 16 and that could allow the Vipers to finish 4-0 and sit at 9-7. They have a loss against Ohio and split their series with Denver, so tiebreakers could be tough, so the hope here, is a 4-0 finish and some stumbles by the Glory and Gold. But, as the famous quote from Dumb and Dumber goes, “You are saying I have a chance.”
Week 12 action brought us our first playoff lock as Arizona’s comeback win over Texas put the Wranglers in the postseason at 10-2. With 4 games left and a 2-game lead on Texas, they have the inside track, but not a lock on the SW Division, but, as most expected, they will certainly be back in the posteason once again. Houston’s loss kept them from locking up a spot in the East, but a win next week, paired with losses by both Washington and Baltimore could do it. The Gamblers still have Memphis and New Orleans right there behind them so the division is certainly still up for grabs. Orlando seems to be the club with the easiest path to a division title, with a 2 game lead over Charlotte and the Monarchs in the middle of an epic death spiral with 5 consecutive losses.
We did see two more teams eliminated from playoff action as losses by Atlanta and St. Louis brought them to the same sad party as the Tampa Bay Bandits. Atlanta actually falls behind Tampa Bay in the standings, with the top 3 draft picks currently looking like St. Louis, followed by Atlanta and the Bandits in third place. With another loss both Dallas and Portland could join them. We could also see Birmingham and Pittsburgh fall too far behind if all things work out just wrong for those two clubs.
Three players added to the Injured reserve this week. New Jersey will miss Anthoine Bethea’s presence in the defensive backfield, and Orlando will have similar concerns with nickel back Kevin Johnson now out. Josh Freeman is expected to be a game time decision for St. Louis this week, as will be All-USFL TE Antonio Gates for the Blitz.
OUT
CB Kevin Johnson ORL Neck IR
SS Anthoine Bethea NJ Hernia IR
G Matt Slauson DEN Back IR
DOUBTFUL
CB Jaylen Watkins TEX Thigh
G Cody Wichman ATL Groin
WR Demaryius Thomas LA Concussion
QUESTIONABLE
WR Nick Toon SD Concussion
QB Josh Freeman STL Wrist
TE Antonio Gates BAL Hamstring
LB Jonathon Goff TBY Concussion
TE C. J. Uzomah STL Turf Toe
TE Cameron Brate PHI Migraines
Third Quarter Power Ranking
Twelve weeks out of sixteen, that is the ¾ mark for the year. Time once again for us to pull out the team power rankings, and we are shaking them up a bit this time. We have been watching film and we are going to reward teams that are at their best right now, punishing those who seem to be slipping or just plain giving up. That means a new number one and a new number twenty-eight. So here goes, the unofficial, always fluid, ever-shifting Power Rankings after 12 weeks.
1—MEMPHIS (9-3) Up 5
The Showboats jump up to the top spot because they are not just winning games, they are blowing people out, looking a lot like Arizona did in the season’s first half.
2—SAN DIEGO (9-3) Up 7
Another fast riser, the Thunder are doing it with defense and may wrap up the Pacific division as soon as next week.
3—ARIZONA (10-2) Down 2
Yes, the Wranglers have the league’s best record, but they have just not looked as dominant over the past month. Could they have peaked too early?
4—HOUSTON (9-3) Down 2
They might have stayed at the top had they won this week, but the loss to San Diego has to be recognized.
5—NEW JERSEY (8-4) Up 4
The Generals have been up and down, battling Washington all year, and now Baltimore is getting into the mix as well. The NE could be the last division to determine a winner if this keeps up.
6—NEW ORLEANS (8-4) Up 4
The Breakers may end up as one of the best teams in the league, but still only be third in their own division. That is how tough the South has been this year.
7—ORLANDO (8-4) Down 2
Orlando, for all they have done right, is only 2-2 since the halfway point. They need to avoid the mistakes that have cost them those 2 games and focus on wrapping up the SE Division so they can get a bye week.
8—TEXAS (8-4) Down 4
Another team that has gone 2-2 in the past month. Now, some of that is the loss of Joe Flacco for a game, but not all of it. Texas has the ability to be the best team in the league, but it is not coming out each and every week.
9—MICHIGAN (7-5) Down 4
The Panthers appear to be fading a bit. They have Chicago nipping at their heels, and they just cannot afford to slip up, which is a lot of pressure to deal with. They need to find some coping mechanisms.
10—BALTIMORE (7-5) Up 2
Another 3-1 quarter of the season and we are putting the memory of their 0-4 start well behind us. The Blitz are a team no one wants to play at this point in the year.
11—OAKLAND (7-5) Up 3
3-1 in the past month has certainly helped Oakland avoid the title of “faders”, but they are still up against it with LA breathing down their necks and San Diego hoping to run away with the division.
12—LOS ANGELES (7-5) Up 4
A nice 4-game stretch for the Express has them in the mix and looking like a club that could be trouble in the postseason. A huge game with Oakland coming up could tell us all we need to know.
13—WASHINGTON (7-5) Down 2
The Feds have stumbled a bit and now find themselves in the middle of a 3-way race for the NE Division. They have to find ways to win those tough divisional matchups if they want to come out on top.
14—CHICAGO (6-6) Up 3
We are still not sure if Chicago is for real. Let’s be honest, after last year an 8-8 record in 2016 is a huge upgrade, but now fans are hoping for more. Can the Machine deliver?
15—PHILADELPHIA (6-6) No Change
The Stars seem to be the epitome of a .500 club. They look good one week, bad the next. They do some things well, but not well enough to regularly overcome shortcomings in their game.
16—DENVER (5-7) Down 3
How does a team that can beat Arizona and Orlando lose as many games as they do? 1-3 over the past month does not fill us with confidence.
17—JACKSONVILLE (5-7) Up 2
The Bulls are a better team than in 2015, to be sure, but their reliance on Robert Griffin’s legs has bitten them hard. The last quarter of the year could be a tough run.
18—OHIO (5-7) Up 5
Coach Coughlin has made the call to go with Hackenberg, and the results have been decent. Not earthshattering, but pretty solid. A 2-2 finish would likely not be good enough to get them to the postseason, but it is a nice step towards the future.
19—LAS VEGAS (5-7) Up 3
A solid quarter, but not one that will move the needle much. The loss of Cody Pickett is a huge one for the Vipers. We just don’t see Jeff Tuel taking them to .500 or beyond.
20—CHARLOTTE (6-6) Down 17
What a disaster. We could not have seen their losing streak extend this far, but 5 games in a row is brutal, and we are not seeing a lot of pathways for them to turn it around, not in time to make a difference this year. We think all attention is now turning to Mitch Trubisky and how his senior year looks at UNC.
21—DALLAS (4-8) Up 6
The Roughnecks have shown both pluck and potential over the past 4 weeks. They went 3-1 in the past month and another month like that could have us picking them as a dark horse in 2017 despite their 1-7 start to the year this season.
22—BIRMINGHAM (4-8) Down 5
They were close enough at the halfway point to still believe they could make a run. Going 1-3 the past month has dispelled that belief and firing both coordinators clearly shows that the Stallions are already thinking about next year.
23—PITTSBURGH (4-8) Down 5
The Maulers are just not the team we thought they were. That seems clear now. The question is whether or not they can recapture the swagger that helped propel them to the Eastern Conference Finals last year.
24—TAMPA BAY (3-9) Up 1
They are trying, we will give them that. The Bandits got a key win and now don’t sit at the bottom of the Eastern Standings, but the year has not gone well. We don’t expect that Mike Shula survives this. Right now it is all about testing to see if Dak Prescott is their future at QB or if they have to hunt once again for a new option.
25—PORTLAND (3-9) Down 4
An 0-4 month is not what anyone in Portland wanted to see. There are concerns for Marcus Mariota’s physical well-being and for his psyche after what is proving to be a very rough first year under center. The Stags just have to improve the talent around Mariota because this year is proving he cannot do it on his own.
26—SEATTLE (3-9) Up 2
Two wins in the past 4 games is a nice improvement, and it seems to be tied to the tough call that Coach Mitchell made to bench Byron Leftwich. Jacoby Brissett has had some moments and all indications seem to point to Seattle letting Leftwich walk this offseason, turning the page.
27—ATLANTA (3-9) Down 1
So much is not going right for the Fire, from offensive woes to defensive gaffs, this club is just not playing well right now. If I were Coach Ramsey, I would probably be looking for a good realtor, because we think his house will be on the market soon.
28—ST. LOUIS (2-8) Down 4
The Skyhawks absolutely deserve to drop to the bottom spot. They went 0-4 over the past month, have players actively lobbying to leave the team, and it seems clear that despite many saying that they love Coach Arians, the club will need to make a change this offseason.
Oklahoma Outlaws Present New-Old School Branding
Last week we said that the new branding for the Oklahoma Outlaws was due any day, and we were absolutely right, with the club calling a press conference for Friday night. The event, held at the state capitol building in central Oklahoma City, presented the return of the Outlaws and some very familiar branding.
The team revealed a 3-color palette, including 2 of the club’s original colors from their lone season in Tulsa back in 1987. The main color and the color of both the helmet and the team’s dark jersey will be classic black. The club also returns to crimson red as its second color, perhaps a shade or two darker than back in ’87, more aligned with the color we see each Saturday when OU is on the field. And, not wanting to ostracize fans of the OSU Cowpokes, the club also revealed that Deep Orange would be one of the team’s colors as well.
As for the logo, the primary logo will be very familiar to those who watched Brian Bosworth and Doug Williams playing in Tulsa. The familiar outlaw head logo, his lower half covered in a bandana, returns, with two alterations from the original design. The cowboy’s hat now features an orange band right above the brim and the bandana has a crimson highlight along its right side, including the two ties that emerge on the right. Other than those two color inserts, the logo design is identical to the original 1987 look, all the way down to the font used in the team’s wordmark.
The club did add a secondary logo, and this is quite different. It depicts an italic letter O crossed with what appears to be two bull horns wrapped in an oversized barbed wire barb. The three-color logo serves both as a monogram and as a second visual image for the team. The new secondary will appear on the jersey sleeves. The use of both crimson and orange in the logo is consistent from the main logo through the uniforms as a color blend is used to have crimson shift into orange on a vertical wipe. This can be found in the logo outline, in the outer piping on the jersey numbers, and again in the pant stripes. The two pant sets are white and black, each with the team’s primary logo on the hip and with a color-shifting stripe down the thigh.
The team has indicated that it will wear black over black early in the year (during the cooler months), black over white for some home games, and even white over white if there are late season home matchups in higher heat, a common practice of USFL clubs. The look is one that is designed to evoke the original pro team in the state while also providing some new touch points for fans who may not have been around nearly 30 years ago. The use of an outlaw head keeps a connection with the long history of the Texas Outlaws, though the look is far more Tulsa period than San Antonio, and the colors definitely remind fans that while they may have played 29 seasons as the Texas Outlaws, the club began and now returns to its roots in Oklahoma.
Week 13 kicks off with a traditional rivalry that could well be a playoff-determining game as both Oakland and Los Angeles enter the game with identical 7-5 records. Can the Express overtake their rivals from the north and claim 2nd place in the Pacific, or will Oakland continue to dominate this rivalry matchup?
Saturday brings us two more big rivalry games with Baltimore and Washington, also both 7-5 and also both hoping to step into 2nd place if not a tie for first place with a victory. They will kick off at noon, then, later that same day we get round 2 of the Texas-Arizona showdowns. The Wranglers took the first of the two matches, but Joe Flacco may be back for the rematch in Houston and that could change the dynamic of the matchup quite a bit.
Sunday starts off with a must-win game for Charlotte as they have a tough road game in New Jersey. Dropping a 6th straight game will all but doom the playoff hopes for a Monarchs team that was sitting on top of the world at 6-1 just over a month ago. The 4pm slot has a key matchup for playoff positioning as well, with 6-6 Philadelphia headed to Detroit to take on the 7-5 Michigan Panthers. The Stars cannot afford to fall any further behind in the NE Division, while Michigan is barely ahead of Chicago for the Central title and cannot take a loss here. We end the weekend with a huge game in the Southern Division with 8-4 New Orleans hoping to get a road win at 9-3 Memphis. The Showboats have been looking like one of the league’s strongest teams over the past month, but New Orleans is the defending league champion and know their way around a tough matchup. It should be a good one and a loud one at the Liberty Bowl.
Friday @ 8pm ET Oakland (7-5) @ Los Angeles (7-5) NBC
Saturday @ 12pm ET Baltimore (7-5) @ Washington (7-5) ABC
Saturday @ 12pm ET Ohio (5-7) @ St. Louis (2-10) FOX
Saturday @ 4pm ET Birmingham (4-8) @ San Diego (9-3) ABC
Saturday @ 4pm ET Chicago (6-6) @ Las Vegas (5-7) FOX
Saturday @ 7pm ET Portland (3-9) @ Dallas (4-8) NBC
Saturday @ 9pm ET Arizona (10-2) @ Texas (8-4) ESPN/EFN
Sunday @ 12pm ET Charlotte (6-6) @ New Jersey (8-4) ABC Regional
Sunday @ 12pm ET Pittsburgh (4-8) @ Atlanta (3-9) ABC Regional
Sunday @ 12pm ET Jacksonville (5-7) @ Orlando (8-4) FOX
Sunday @ 4pm ET Philadelphia (6-6) @ Michigan (7-5) ABC
Sunday @ 4pm ET Houston (9-3) @ Seattle (3-9) FOX Regional
Sunday @ 4pm ET Tampa Bay (3-9) @ Denver (5-7) FOX Regional
Sunday @ 8pm ET New Orleans (8-4) @ Memphis (9-3) ESPN/EFN
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