Charlotte switches quarterbacks and snaps their 6-game losing streak. LA shuts down Texas and strengthens their playoff position. Birmingham gets a huge upset win at home, and Houston asserts their dominance by blowing past Orlando. All this plus the Generals locking up the NE Division and both Denver and Ohio keeping their playoff hopes alive by climbing to .500. It was a busy week and there are a lot of stories to cover. Including an injury that may make the final 2 week push for the Ohio Glory a tough climb. We get started with a story we have wanted to cover for a while, defining what makes the USFL distinct from its fall predecessor. We start there, move on to our Game of the Week, featuring the Federals and the Stars, and then run through all the week’s news. Don’t go anywhere, it is all right here.
Five Ways the USFL Game is Distinct from the NFL
This is a topic that has been a popular discussion among football fans for years. For some the tradition and legacy of the NFL cannot be beat, for others the style of play and “fun loving” vibe of the USFL was more attractive. We decided that it was a good time to discuss just how the two leagues are distinct from each other, beyond the obvious weather differences of fall and spring, of course, and we came up with 5 major differences. This is not to say that one is superior to the other. We all recognize that in talent and in excitement both leagues can lay their claims to being the best game in town, but there are differences and we wanted to identify them so that you the fans could continue to debate which you prefer and why so many of you are year-round football fans.
Biggest Structural Difference: USFL Territorial Draft
There is no doubt that the T-Draft is perhaps the most unique and easily-identifiable distinction in league structure between the two leagues. Despite the success of the T-Draft in helping USFL teams sign local talent to their squads, from the very onset of the league, the NFL has never adopted the practice, making it a very obvious difference in style. The T-Draft allows teams to protect players in the draft from the other USFL teams by choosing up to 3 stars from a limited pool of protected schools. These are often regional schools, such as Auburn, Alabama and UAB for the Birmingham Stallions, but in an effort to create balance, teams in weaker regions of the nation often get schools from outside their immediate vicinity to boost their draw. A good example of this will be this Winter, when New Jersey will have the University of Wisconsin as a protected school, allowing them a direct path towards a star like LB/DE T. J. Watt.
The player pool system of the T-Draft, while not protecting USFL teams from the NFL signing away some of their favorite local sons, has produced teams that do have regional appeal. No team has done this better than the Birmingham Stallions. Just look at the Stallions’ offensive stars and you see an Auburn product (QB Cam Newton) and two members of the Crimson Tide of Alabama (T. J. Yeldon and Amari Cooper). Philadelphia has built up a long history of Penn State linebackers and even the occasional QB like 1983 inaugural starter Chuck Fusina.
It helps teams build rapport with local universities and their fanbases, a definite plus particularly in the South, where College football is still king.
Biggest Strategic Difference: Coaching Hires & Priorities
While there is certainly a healthy amount of crossover among USFL and NFL coaches, the spring league has shown a greater propensity to sign coaches who are younger, more innovative, and particularly more offensive-minded. In part this aligns with the rules of the game, which certainly favor the offenses, but it is also a relic of the early days of the league which now has just turned into a culture. Back when the league began the USFL was not going to sign away major coaching stars from the NFL, so most of the coaches were either position coaches in the NFL (Rollie Dotsch of Birmingham or Dick Coury of the Breakers, for example) or younger up-and-coming coaches whose pedigree would not have gotten them a shot in the NFL at the time . Think of names like Steve Spurrier or Jim Mora Sr. Sure, now they are household names, but the USFL was really their big break. That has translated over time and now we still see younger coordinators and even ex-players like Lamar Lathon, Tom Ramsey, or Greg Landry taking on head coaching positions still in their 30’s, something you rarely see in the NFL. Sure, there is the occasional veteran coach like an Andy Reid who comes over to the USFL for a 2nd chance, but more often than not it is the coordinator who innovates who gets their shot to lead.
Biggest Style of Play Difference: Vertical Passing Game
There are about as many offensive schemes in the USFL as in the NFL, but there is one feature which seems to have stuck around from the 1980’s in the USFL which the NFL has largely abandoned, the vertical passing game. While both leagues have their share of West Coast, spread (invented in the USFL as the Run & Shoot) and power run offenses, what you see more often in the USFL than in the NFL over the past 15-20 years is a love for the deep vertical game, particularly as a feature of play action.
Whereas the NFL has largely gone to shell defenses that make the deep ball harder to complete, and offenses based on yards after catch, the USFL still seems to value the deep shot, evident in some of the top receivers regularly averaging close to 30 yards per catch. Just look at the example of Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona. Fitzie has only 57 catches on the year, but is close to 1,600 yards, averaging 27.9 yards per catch. While he is certainly adept at mid range catches, Fitzgerald is often used to blow the roof off a defense, especially on first downs, when the running of Frank Gore has to be a priority for defenses.
Rules play a part in this. The 1-foot rule brought in from college makes deep balls easier to complete. The limitations on defensive contact in the secondary, and the unique Intentional Grounding Rule that essentially treats a clearly desperate hurl as a sack means that offenses are more likely to risk the deep drop, the longer routes, and the time needed to develop longer pass plays. That stylistic difference has continued to make the USFL game one of exciting bombs and late comebacks.
Biggest Rule Difference: Intentional Grounding
While there are many rules differences that make the two league’s distinct, and we could point to several, we think the one already mentioned is perhaps the biggest. In the NFL a quarterback who is in the grasp or who fears eminent contact with angry edge rushers or blitzers can get penalized doubly for throwing the ball away. If ruled intentional grounding there is a 10-yard penalty and a loss of down. In the USFL, a player can only be called for intentional grounding if he is believed to be “in the grasp” of the defender at the time of the throw. That means that quarterbacks have a split second longer to try to deliver the ball before they would be penalized. The penalty is also less severe in the USFL in most cases. Rather than a mandatory 10 yards, the defender who had the QB in his grasp is credited with a sack and the ball is placed at the location of the throw. Sure, sometimes this can be 12 or 15 yards back, but that is rare. More often it is within 3-7 yards from the line of scrimmage, making it a less-impactful call.
The dual impact of this rule difference is that quarterbacks are more likely to make the desperation throw rather than take the sack, and that more passes are considered legitimate if a sack is imminent but not yet “in the grasp”. What does that lead to? Well, for one, it has led to some amazing plays where QBs miraculously complete a pass that had no business being attempted. On the other side of the coin it also has led to the USFL having more interceptions, and particularly more pick-sixes than we see in the NFL. Maybe it is that USFL quarterbacks are just more likely to be gunslingers than in the NFL, but the reality is that while the USFL has only a 3% higher interception rate, there are typically between 17%-22% more pick sixes per total pass attempts in the spring league than in the fall. That distinction makes the passing game more dramatic and leads to greater opportunity for strong momentum swings, which fans seem to really enjoy.
Biggest Perception Difference: More Fun League
This difference, which may well be more about public image than reality, is a message that the USFL strove to get out to the public from its earlier days. Just as the AFL had done in the 60’s, the early USFL sold the idea that the NFL was old school, conservative, stodgy,and just less fun than the new, upstart spring league. The USFL allowed more elaborate celebrations, including organized displays by entire cohorts of players after a touchdown and individual celebrations after big plays, sacks, first downs, etc. From this early distinction, as well as some of the rule and style differences highlighted above, the USFL managed to sell the idea that while the NFL was great for tradition and history, the USFL was more dynamic, more exciting, and just more fun. This image of the league is certainly helped by the party atmosphere on warm summer days, the lack of bitter cold and snow games during the most important final weeks of the season, and the ongoing marketing of players and their energy as part of the league’s personality.
The NFL may have Lombardi, Landry, and Unitas, but the USFL has Spurrier, Flutie, Favre, and Randy Moss, all exuberant, extroverted, and fun-loving figures. So, the two leagues have their strengths, they both provide top notch professional sports that have become a part of American culture, and they both showcase some of the most talented athletes in the world, but they are different, and for some, what the USFL has to offer is their cup of tea, or perhaps their cool cup of beer on a hot summer day.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS 33 PHILADELPHIA STARS 30
The playoff positioning battles in the Northeast Division continued as the Federals and Stars clashed at Lincoln Financial Field. In a division that has 4 solid teams it seems that every week there is a must-win game and this week we saw two of them (Baltimore @ New Jersey was the second). With the Stars and Federals both coming in at 7-6, it was clear that the loser would be at a distinct disadvantage in the Wild Card hunt.
And so we got what we so often get in these NE Division battles, an intense slugfest in which both teams throw haymakers hoping to connect on a big play that will give them the edge. Philadelphia got the edge in yards in this one, 392-273, thanks in large part to 339 yards from QB Matt Gutierrez, who has been taking some heat lately for inconsistency. Washington, however, won the turnover battle, with Philadelphia giving up the ball twice (3 times if you count a failed 4th down attempt). The Washington offense was more muted, with David Garrard only throwing for 176 yards, but they were better at turning opportunities into points, and that gave them a lead going into the 4th, a lead they almost relinquished as Philadelphia stormed back.
This was without a doubt a game of momentum swings. Washington built up an initial 14-0 lead in the first quarter, getting a huge play on defense as Glover Quinn picked off Gutierrez and returned the ball 13 yards to the endzone. That play came about 6 minutes after the first score of the game, a Kelvin Benjamin TD catch. Philadelphia would end the quarter with a field goal, but that felt like it was not enough, and even adding a 2nd kick early in the 2nd did not feel like it would suffice. The Stars needed to get into the endzone, not kick field goals.
Washington built up on their lead in the 2nd when Deuce McCallister hit on his biggest run of the game. He took a simple counter play, spun out of the initial tackle and rumbled 19 yards for a score, proving that the old man still had some moves. The score gave Washington a 14 point lead once again, but it was not enough to dishearten the Stars, who knew that this game was pivotal if they wanted to return to the playoffs.
The Stars put two scores on the board in the final minutes of the 2nd quarter, including their first touchdown. After a 3rd field goal cut the Washington lead to 11, the Stars’ defense held Washington on a 3rd and 3 and got the ball back with 3:44 left to play. Matt Gutierrez completed 4 consecutive passes, with the last one finding Ron Johnson in the endzone for a 19-yard score. Philadelphia was back in the game at 20-16. The only problem was they left a bit too much time for Washington. The Federals used the final 1:01 and their 2 remaining timeouts to get Adam Vinatieri in range for a 40-yard kick and he finished the first half by helping Washington increase the lead to 23-16.
The second half began with a devastating play for the Stars. They had marched down to the redzone and appeared ready to go in for a score, when, on a first and goal from the 3, HB Derrick Henry was hit by Washington LB Kevin Burnett. Burnett’s helmet connected with Henry’s elbow and the ball popped free. It would be recovered in the endzone by Washington, giving the Federals the ball at the 20 and snuffing out a very promising Stars drive. Henry was devastated by the play, only his 2nd fumble all season.
Washington would not cash in on that drive, but by the end of the third they had put 10 points on the board to Philly’s goose egg. They added a 9-yard run from Wendell Smallwood, used more often as a returner than a runner, but effective on the pitch play. Then, on their next possession they made it to the Stars’ 9-yard line before stalling and sending out Vinatieri to make the score 33-16 Washington.
Down 17 points, the Stars needed a major momentum shift as the 4th quarter started. They got it on a 3rd and 14 when Matt Gutierrez connected with TE Cameron Brate, back from injury. The big TE essentially carried 2 tacklers the final yard and a half before collapsing just across the line to gain. That play sparked the crowd and the Stars’ bench. 4 plays later Travis Kelce, Gutierrez’s favorite interior target, found a seam in the Washington zone and Gutierrez found him for a 34-yard score that caused the stadium to erupt.
Inspired by their offense, the Philly defense stepped up and stuffed McCallister on a 3rd and 2. The Stars got the ball back with 4:24 left, now down 10. They would move the ball quickly, but not quickly enough. When Gutierrez hit Alexander Lefebvre with a goalline TD there was only 1:39 left. Philadelphia had no timeouts left and no recourse other than an onside kick. The kick would fall right into the arms of Washington’s Steve Breaston, in on the hands team, and that was all she wrote. David Garrard took three snaps and three kneel downs as the clock wound down.
It was too little too late, and now, with 2 weeks left, Philadelphia found themselves at 7-7 and in 4th place in the division, a position unlikely to wrap up a Wild Card. They would need to win out to have a shot, and with Memphis and Chicago, two likely playoff teams, on the schedule, that would be no easy task. Washington, now 8-6, was in a slightly better position, but still sat just outside the playoff positions, losing out on tiebreakers to fellow 8-6 clubs New Orleans and Baltimore. They would need help and very likely would also need to win out to get their shot at the postseason.
BALTIMORE 18 NEW JERSEY 29
The Generals clamped down on Baltimore’s offense and took the division title in a triumphant Week 14. Sacking Ben Roethlisberger 5 times and picking him off twice, the New Jersey defense limited the Blitz to only 9 first downs on the day as they built a 21-3 halftime lead before a Baltimore comeback. The Generals turned around and dominated the 4th quarter, putting thefinal 8 points on the board and shutting out the Blitz in the final period to get the win and with it the Division.
POTG: New Jersey CB Danieal Manning: 4 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 Sfty
ATLANTA 16 MEMPHIS 24
The Showboats kept their hopes for a division title and the one seed alive by taking care of business at home against the Fire. Robert Woods caught 7 balls for 126 yards and Brandon Marshall had 2 TD receptions as the Showboats survived 3 picks from Eli manning and still won by 8. Kyle Orton was back under center for the Fire, but threw for only 159 yards as Atlanta was outgained 390-222.
POTG: Memphis WR Robert Woods: 7 Rec, 126 Yds
JACKSONVILLE 10 CHARLOTTE 17
Coach Mora made the move fans had been calling for, sending Tyler Thigpen in to play QB. Thigpen responded by going 23 of 36 for 286 yards, 2 TDs and a pick. Trailing 190-7 at the half, Charlotte got a 3rd quarter TD from Thigpen to TE L. J. Smith and shut out Jacksonville in the 2nd half to earn their first win in 7 weeks. The win keeps them alive at 7-7 in the Wild Card race.
POTG: Charlotte DE C. J. Ah You: 7 Tck, 1 Sck, 2 FF
SEATTLE 14 LAS VEGAS 31
Don’t tell TE Tyler Eifert this game was a meaningless end of season showdown. Eifert went off for 145 yards and a score as the Vipers rolled over Seattle. Jeff Tuel threw for 3 scores, including 2 TD tosses to Aurelious Benn, but it was Eifert who stole the show with a 67-yard catch and rumble for the play of the game.
POTG: Who else, Viper TE Tyler Eifert: 5 Rec, 145 Yds, 1 TD
PORTLAND 10 CHICAGO 15
The Stags did not make it easy, but Chicago won their 3rd in a row and 5th in 6 games thanks to a nice defensive showing. Ryan Fitzpatrick went 12 of 19 but only for 135 yards as Portland kept everything in front of them and forced Chicago to work for every yard. HB Doug Maritin scored twice and the Chicago defense allowed only 2 third down conversions by the Stags, helping them move to 8-6 and retain a share of the lead in the Central Division.
POTG: Chicago CB Nikell Robey-Coleman: 4 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 Sfty
NEW ORLEANS 14 BIRMINGHAM 16
A major upset and a divisional loss that removes any slim hope New Orleans had for the division title. Birmingham got to Brees 4 times and pressured him into a bad pick that set up the ball for the Stallions on the 7-yard line. It would be their only TD of the day, a T. J. Yeldon run, but that, along with 3 field goals, was enough as the New Orleans offense looked out of synch all game long.
POTG: Birmingham SS Baccari Rambo: 8 Tck, 1 Sck
SAN DIEGO 3 OAKLAND 23
One team had their playoff spot assured, the other still fighting for it and it showed. San Diego came out flat and before they woke up Oakland had a 2-score lead. The Invaders got 2 TD tosses from Joey Harrington and pulled away in the 4th quarter to upset the Thunder, locking up the 1-seed for the Arizona Wranglers and putting Oakland back in the mix as the current 6 seed.
POTG: Oakland WR Keenan Allen: 6 Rec, 99 Yds, 1 TD
ARIZONA 31 TAMPA BAY 10
Arizona claimed the 1 seed with a dominant win in Tampa. The Wrangler D forced 4 Dak Prescott picks, including a pick-six from Nate Allen, and the offense, split between Jim Sorgi and Ryan Nassib at QB, got TDs from Antonio Bryant, KaDeem Carey, and Larry Fitzgerald to pull away from the 3-win Bandits. The only bright spot for Tampa Bay was a 101-yard day from Hank Basket.
POTG: Arizona FS Nate Allen: 5 Tck, 2 Int, 1 Def TD
ST. LOUIS 10 OHIO 12
Despite an injury which could end the season for rookie QB Christian Hackenberg, the Glory improved to 7-7 and remained alive in the Wild Card hunt. Osweiler completed 15 of 26 passes and hit Justin Blackmon with Ohio’s only TD in this defensive struggle. St. Louis had a chance to eke out the win, but missed on a final play field goal, giving the W to the Glory.
POTG: Ohio DE Robert Quinn: 5 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 Sfty
DENVER 20 DALLAS 10
Denver also improved to 7-7 and remained alive with a road win in Dallas. They shut down Johnny Manziel, picking off the Dallas QB twice and sacking him 5 times. Matt Leinart struggled, going 12 of 23, but found Michael Crabtree for the go-ahead touchdown. Patrick Robinson’s earlier pick-six helped the Gold hold off the Roughnecks and even their record.
POTG: Denver CB Patrick Robinson: 5 Tck, 1 Int, 1 Def TD
TEXAS 9 LOS ANGELES 19
Outlaw QB Joe Flacco has not looked quite right since coming back from injury, and his line is not helping out as the “human statue” was sacked a painful 10 times by the Express D. Sam Bradford was picked off twice by the Outlaws but still managed to get the offense in range for 4 Dan Bailey field goals. The offense never reached the endzone for LA, but punt returner Marqise Lee did on an 81-yard return that was the clear play of the game.
POTG: KR/PR Marqise Lee: 4 Returns, 106 Yds, 1 TD
PITTSBURGH 21 MICHIGAN 34
The Panthers raced out to a 21-0 lead in the first half and then held off Tom Savage and the Mauler offense for the second half. Cody Latimer had the opening score and added a second one in the 4th to earn player of the game. LeVeon Bell had his own huge day, rushing for 182 yards and a score as well. The win keeps Michigan tied with Chicago and in the Division Champion leadership thanks to tiebreakers.
POTG: Michigan WR Cody Latimer: 5 Rec, 121 Yds, 2 TD
HOUSTON 24 ORLANDO 6
The Gamblers assert their dominance as the best team in the East by shutting down the Orlando offense and surviving 6 Orlando sacks. Carlos Hyde had 72 yards and a score on the ground, then added 62 more yards in the passing game, with a 2nd touchdown through the air. The game was 6-3 after 3 quarters before Houston exploded in the 4th with 3 consecutive scoring drives to pull away and put the game to bed.
POTG: Houston HB Carlos Hyde: 12 Att, 72 Yds, 1 TD, 4 Rec, 62 Yds, 1 TD
Technicality Drops Carr from Passer Rankings
David Carr missed his second week of action this season, resting with a sprained ankle, and the shrewd move strategically led to a peculiar shift statistically. With 14 weeks in the books, the QB rating table requires a minimum of 270 pass attempts for a player to be included, thus removing the players who have had 12 passes and completed 10 from looking like MVPs. The problem is that David Carr, who now sits at 269 pass attempts, no longer qualifies. That is right, the clear frontrunner for MVP and the player who has been at the top of the QB Rating basically all season long is no longer on the list at all, replaced at the top by Ben Roethlisberger.
Carr should return to the chart next week, assuming he suits up against Baltimore, but it is an odd quirk that has many asking if the standard (20 pass attempts per game -10) is too high. It is a claim that several QBs could argue, including Matt Hasselbeck, whose 231 passes do not qualify him. Were the minimum 200 passes both Carr and Hasselbeck would not only be on the table but would sit at 1st and 2nd respectively. But the league has used the “20 per game -10” formula essentially since the recalibrated the passer ratings to differentiate them from the NFL system back in the early 1990’s, and there is no expectation that a change is coming just because the league MVP falls off for one week, likely to return by season’s end.
Division Title Vindication for Coach Turner
Coach Norv Turner has to be taking special pleasure in his Generals locking up the Northeast Division this year. After pushing through a pair of 10-loss seasons in New Jersey, there were calls for Turner to be relieved of duty last July, but the Generals stuck with the former Outlaws coach who was brought in to rebuild a struggling General offense. With veteran HB Maurice Jones-Drew, a 2nd year QB in Brett Hundley and a rising young wideout in Odell Beckham Jr, Turner has done just that, producing a team that is currently in the Top 10 in 3 of 4 key offensive statistics (Points, Yards, Passing). In addition to that, he has helped to craft a defense that is currently allowing only 18.0 points per game (5th in the league) and has forced 29 turnovers (3rd in the league).
This year marks the first in the USFL where a Turner-led team will crack 10 wins, and after a rough four seasons in Texas and an equally dicey two years in New Jersey, it seems that Turner has found the right combination of talent, attitude, and energy to get the job done. New Jersey was predicted by many to finish last in the NE Division this year but have outperformed at every stage of the year. Their 7-0 division record is a surprise to anyone familiar with the parity of the division, and they have a chance to make it a perfect 8-0, almost unheard of in the NE Division, with a win over last place Pittsburgh this weekend. Quite a testament to the patience of the Generals’ owners and the tenacity of Coach Turner to build the team as he wanted it built.
Thunder Loss Clinches 1 Seed for Arizona
The 23-3 loss to Oakland was a shock to the system for the San Diego Thunder in more ways than one, but perhaps most notably, it has removed them from the hunt for the top seed in the West. They are still in a strong position for the 2 seed and a bye week, thanks largely to Michigan’s late season struggles, but being dominated by the Oakland Invaders this week has to send a chill down the backs of all Thunder fans.
After all, this was a San Diego team that was not expected to challenge for the Pacific title, and there remain lingering doubts that they truly are a championship caliber team. Those doubts should be assuaged by the Thunder’s victories over other contenders like Houston and Memphis. They also did beat the Invaders back in Week 10, so it is not as if Oakland is their kryptonite, but a bad loss in the final weeks of the season can be a sign that not all is going as planned and that a team may have peaked too soon.
San Diego Coach Dick LeBeau is a veteran of playoff chases, having taken Michigan to more than their fair share of postseason runs, including league titles in both 2001 and 2008, so the Thunder are in solid hands when it comes to planning for the postseason. Perhaps they can chalk up the loss to the inevitable let down of focus after a playoff berth has been clinched. But San Diego cannot rest on their laurels. They may sit a game up on Los Angeles with only 2 games to play, but the Express have won 5 in a row and could catch the Thunder with a win at home against them this week. That alone would not wrest the division away from San Diego, thanks to tiebreakers, but it would set up a must-win situation against Portland in Week 16, with the difference between a 2 seed and a 4 seed being a huge one. San Diego cannot afford to tail off now, not after such a strong season has set them up for potential playoff success.
Hackenberg Injury Complicates Ohio Playoff Push
The Ohio Glory have won 4 of their last 5, including a tough 12-10 squeaker against St. Louis this past week, but that late season success came after rookie Christian Hackenberg took over from Brock Osweiler. Now, with Hackenberg suffering a fracture in his leg and done for the season with his leg in a cast, what playoff hopes Ohio has now rest on Brock Osweiler once again. Hackenberg’s injury clouds their 7-7 record and outside shot at a playoff berth. They sit only 1 game behind Michigan and could still theoretically win the Central Division, but even if they fall short there, they could still qualify as a Wild Card, particularly if they can pick up two wins as their season ends with the Panthers this week and the Oakland Invaders in Week 16. Two home games but two very tough opponents.
What is concerning, of course, is that 5 of Ohio’s 7 wins have come with Hackenberg under center, with Osweiler going 2-6 in his 8 appearances. That does not bode well for a club that has to stretch their current 2-game win streak to 4 games if they want to play a 17th game this year. Comparing the stats of the two, it is easy to see the differences. While both are rated between 84-88 in the QB rating system, Hackenberg finishes the year with a 5:2 TD:INT ratio, compared with Osweiler’s 12:10 ratio. Hackenberg also averages nearly 2 yards more per completion, a sign that he is able to get the ball to his receivers on deeper routes. Most importantly, Ohio shifts from an average of 18 points per game under Osweiler to nearly 25 per game with Hackenberg in the game. So, the question now is what Coach Coughlin can do in the next 2 games to get Hackenberg-like numbers out of Osweiler.
Two weeks left and we still have 6 of 12 playoff spots still open, including 3 of 6 division titles. It is tight out there. We start with the divisions, where New Jersey, Orlando, and Arizona are the only clubs that have locked down the division titles. Houston is stuck in a tie with Memphis in the South, with the winner of that division likely taking the 1 seed in the East as well. In the West, San Diego has seen their lead over Los Angeles drop to 1 game. The two face off this week and a win by the Express will make Week 16 vital for both clubs as both would much prefer the 2 seed and its Wild Card bye than the 4 seed. In the Central, Michigan and Chicago are knotted up at 8-6, with the Panthers holding the tiebreaker, but a loss by the Panthers could not only remove their division title hopes but also drop them out of the playoffs altogether.
Currently Baltimore, New Orleans, Oakland, and Chicago sit in the 4 unclaimed Wild Card spots, but they are not at all safe. Washington and Texas are also currently sitting at 8-6, and Charlotte, Philadelphia, Ohio, and Denver are all in striking range at 7-7. Looking at the Week 15 lineup, there are games all across the schedule that could impact the standings and produce some major shakeups, including Arizona @ Baltimore, LA @ San Diego, Houston @ Washington, Oakland @ Portland, Texas @ Denver, and Michigan @ Ohio. A lot to play for.
We finish up the playoff picture with the newly eliminated teams, which this week now include Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and Dallas, bringing the total to 8 teams scheduling their July tee times and their spa weekends.
No new IR notifications, but several players who may miss the final 2 games of the regular season, including Pittsburgh QB Andy Dalton and Washington RT Ereck Flowers. Dalton’s knee may be the sign that it is time to shutter him for the year even if he is able to get cleared for Week 16, while Flowers is likely going to be held out in hopes he can return for a playoff game (assuming Washington can qualify). Also likely out in Week 15’s big games are DE Calais Campbell, which is likely a relief for the opposition’s QB, in this case Charlotte’s Tyler Thigpen, and Baltimore DE Da’Quon Bowers, who faces Arizona, though David Carr is likely a gametime decision for the Wranglers.
OUT
OT Ereck Flowers WSH Knee 2-4 Weeks
DE Mallicah Goodman TEX Collarbone 2-4 Weeks
QB Andy Dalton PIT Meniscus 1-2 Weeks
DT Atiyyah Ellison WSH Hernia 1-2 Weeks
WR Mark Clayton MEM Hand 1-2 Weeks
DOUBTFUL
C Antoine Caldwell PIT Hamstring
FS Willie Andrews HOU Hernia
G Brett Williams STL Concussion
DE Da’Quan Bowers BAL Hip
DE Calais Campbell ORL Knee
QUESTIONABLE
C Wesley Johnson LV Quad
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey BAL Wrist
WR Randall Cobb PHI Shoulder
Four Possible Destinations for Eli Manning
The incredible success Eli Manning and the Memphis Showboats have had this year creates a unique situation for a team that thought it knew where it was heading. The expectation coming into the year is that Manning would mentor rookie Paxton Lynch, potentially giving way to the rookie at some point during the year and then entering free agency in July as a veteran backup or possibly a marginal starter for a team down on their luck. But Manning’s season has been one of his best in a long 12-year career. He has thrown for over 3,500 yards, has 23 touchdowns, and his highest QB rating ever, 99.1, with a chance to finish over 100.
What does that mean? It means that Manning has shifted from a “transitional” QB with minimal Free Agency value to a potential 3–4-year starter, a mini-franchise option with veteran poise and a much higher ceiling when it comes to value. So, what do we see as the options for Manning? We think there are 4 main paths he could take after this success, and each has its own unique and intriguing possibilities.
1. The Showboats decide to delay the transition and extend Manning for 2-3 years.
This feels somewhat unlikely, both because no team wants to sit on a topflight QB for several years. Paxton Lynch is on a 4-year deal and the prospect that he would not earn the starting job for another 3 years is dicey at best. Add to this the fact that Manning does not exactly feel cheery about the plan from the past year and very likely would prefer to cash in on his newfound success to maximize his value in free agency. We give this option maybe 10%, meaning that Memphis better hope that Lynch pans out. Just ask Portland what it means to let a steady veteran go after a playoff run only to put your top pick in as QB the next year. It does not always work out.
2. Manning Jumps to a desperate team.
More than likely the biggest financial windfall for Manning would come if he were wooed by a club that simply needs a franchise player to market and to build around in the short term. Think of teams like Tampa Bay, Atlanta, or Seattle, all of which have significant issues at the QB position and need to boost the morale of their fans after disastrous seasons. The downside here is that Manning would be putting himself into a pretty bad situation, teams with lesser talent surrounding him and more chance he regresses (at least statistically) or gets hurt. Yes, the money is likely to be good, but what about legacy?
3. Manning takes a bit less to go to a contender.
This is also an option. There are plenty of teams that have a deeper talent pool but may see Manning as an upgrade at the most important position on the field. Look at San Diego, a team with a contender’s defense, a newfound run game, but a bit of a question mark with Joe Webb and/or Christian Ponder as their starter. The Thunder likely won’t offer as much as a truly desperate team, but they would immediately put Manning in a position to win in the short time he likely has left in his career. We could see Philadelphia take this gambit, or Charlotte, Ohio, even New Orleans if Drew Brees retires as many expect he might.
4. Jump to the NFL
Manning has one more option. He could do the reverse of his brother, jumping to the NFL to end his career. Peyton’s USFL experiment did not go much as expected, but there have been many cases of QBs changing leagues for their final years and finding success. There are certainly plenty of teams in the NFL that could use an upgrade at QB and Manning likely would have his pick as early as September. The downside, quite obviously, is trying to play back-to-back seasons and the risk that he might fall to injury or simply be unable to sustain success for another 16-18 weeks after a full USFL season.
Eli Manning is in the driver’s seat for this decision. He can wait until the season is over, and the postseason as Memphis is clearly headed to the playoffs, and then determine which path he prefers. He may or may not get the option to stay in Memphis, that is true, but beyond that, there will certainly be offers from across both leagues and Manning can determine which one gives him the best path forward, for his financial wellbeing as well as his legacy as a player.
Six Other QBs Who Could Be on the Move
As much as we find the Manning situation fascinating, he is almost certainly not the only quarterback who will find himself looking for a new home once we hit Free Agency and the offseason. We see as many as 6 more starting quarterbacks who very well could be either allowed to seek a new deal on the free agent market, or potentially traded in favor of a different option. That is a big shift in one year, especially at the QB position, but just what might be best for each. We do our best to determine a path that may be a good option for each.
Byron Leftwich (SEA)
It seems pretty clear that Seattle is moving past Leftwich after a truly disastrous 2016 season. But that does not mean that the former All-USFL QB won’t have any options. He had a QB Rating over 100 as recently as a year ago, and there are plenty of teams that are in need of a boost at the position and will be willing to overlook a poor 2016 in hopes of getting 1-2 solid years from Leftwich before adding a younger QB to the roster.
OUR PICK: We think the best option for Leftwich would be Tampa Bay. Dak Prescott has shown some talent, but may need time to develop to a true pro. If Leftwich is willing to mentor Prescott, a player with a similar style, then going to Tampa Bay may offer him the chance to rehabilitate his image and exit the league gracefully in 2018 or 2019.
Kyle Orton (ATL)
Orton has always been a QB who will get you some good games and some real stinkers. He is not likely to suddenly become a franchise guy, but could end a year with a QBR in the mid-80’s. Atlanta could well decide that is good enough for them for 1 more year, especially if they cannot get a deal in place to sign a 1st round rookie talent, and Orton has 2 more years on his deal, so that would be that. But if they decide to go elsewhere, they can release him with only minimal salary cap impact, so Orton could be on his way to a new home. If that is the case, he could also be well-suited to share the spotlight with a young developing QB.
OUR PICK: The next name on our list is Ohio’s Brock Osweiler. If Ohio lets Os go, as we think they will, then Orton could be a good fit to mentor, support, and occasionally replace 2015 rookie Christian Hackenberg. They are both true pocket passers, both with strong arms and slow feet, so the style of play with either would be very similar.
Brock Osweiler (OHI)
Another former starter with 2 more years on his deal who, quite frankly, never produced what was expected. Coming over from the NFL with few starts under his belt, Osweiler was more potential than proven results, and that potential simply did not blossom in Columbus. We fully expect Ohio will let him go this offseason, taking the $2M hit on their salary cap, and seek another option to back up Hackenberg. So, what does this mean for Osweiler?
OUR PICK: The odds of Osweiler getting a gig with a real chance to start 16 games seems very unlikely, so we are looking for the best possible backup position for a player with his profile and talents. For us, right now, that would be in in LA, where backup Andy Murray is very likely going to be allowed to leave in Free Agency. Backing up Sam Bradford could be very good for Osweiler and could allow him to develop. We would recommend no more than a 2-year deal. If he can get some playing time and show some growth, he could then seek a better option while he still has years left in him.
Brandon Wheedon (CHA)
Coach Mora’s decision to start Tyler Thigpen for the late playoff push is a clear indication that even his staunchest supporters within the Charlotte organization have given up. Too many picks, too many issues with reading coverage, despite the successes in other areas. Wheedon has only 1 year left on his deal, and if another team is willing to risk the turnover issues to get a 4,000-yard passer, well they very well would be up for taking on the last year of his deal as a “prove it to me” deal for a year.
OUR PICK: In our eyes, the best option for Wheedon, as a reclamation project, would be with a team that is looking for any success at all. Could that mean a jump just down the road to Atlanta? Unlikely within the division. But perhaps Wheedon could find success, or at least a chance for success in a place like Seattle, assuming Jacoby Brissett is still viewed as a developmental option. If Seattle likes what they see in Brissett, they may still bring in a player like Wheedon as insurance. He would need to battle to get playing time, but that battle may finally help Wheedon find the focus he seems to lack in Charlotte.
Matt Gutierrez (PHI)
You may think it is farfetched that the Stars would let Gutierrez go, or cut him loose, with 4 years left on his contract, but we are hearing voices within the Stars’ camp, and those voices are pointing out that Gutierrez has not had a QB Rating above 90 since 2012, and that this year’s performance has been very mixed (19 TD, 17 picks, only 2,885 yards, 77.2 QBR). If they feel they have a shot at an upgrade, they may try to trade Gutierrez to a team in need, a Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Ohio, or Seattle.
OUR PICK: If Philadelphia does seek a trade, Gutierrez needs a situation where he can start right away and prove they were wrong to trade him in the first place. We are going to throw out a weird one here. What about Las Vegas? The club is looking like an up and comer. Cody Pickett suffered a serious injury and may well opt not to return. At the very least Gutierrez would have a shot to start and bringing him in would help Las Vegas account for the chance that Pickett’s recovery is delayed. Gutierrez has a mid-range salary for a QB, which is what Pickett has as well, so it is not a huge cap hit to have them both under contract. It would certainly make for an interesting camp.
Josh Freeman (STL)
I know, I know, a former MVP being tossed aside seems even more farfetched, but hear us out. Freeman was astonishing in the Skyhawks 2012 title run, but since then, not so much. After putting up a 114.3 QB Rating and 39 TD passes to only 3 picks, Freeman has simply not been as good. Sure, part of that is turnover at receiver and halfback, but we are talking about a QB who has not hit 90.0 QBR since, and this year is sitting at 73.4. Freeman has 1 year left on a deal, so perhaps St. Louis waits one more year, looks at possible upgrades, and then decided whether to resign Freeman. But if I am looking for some positive press and a QB with something to prove, maybe I make the Skyhawks an offer they cannot refuse.
OUR PICK: Here is a fun one. I am the Jacksonville Bulls. I have the rights to Clemson’s Deshaun Watson in the T-Draft, and I have Robert Griffin. Griffin proved he is amazing with his feet, not so much with his arm, and the risk of injury is more than apparent with Griffin on IR right now. What if I make an offer to St. Louis to land Freeman as insurance, let them take a swing at signing Deshaun Watson, and I get a solid QB. Maybe I even start Freeman and build a set of pseudo wildcat packages to put Griffin in the game for 10-15 plays each week. Seems wild, but it just could work. Crazier things have happened, right?
Playoff football before the playoffs officially start. That is what we have in Weeks 15 and 16 each year, and that is what we have this week. Charlotte visits Orlando in our Friday opener, and this is without a doubt a playoff game for the Monarchs, who absolutely need a win to stay alive, but that means breaking a nasty 6-game losing streak against the already-crowned division champion. No easy task to be sure.
Saturday’s schedule is highlighted by some tough matchups that almost certainly will impact the postseason and who gets in. We have Memphis at Philly, with the 7-7 Stars now desperate to win their final 2. We have Houston at Washington, where the Federals cannot afford to drop a game either. Arisona is in Baltimore, likely without David Carr and his tender ankle, so the Blitz hope they can get a step closer to a huge comeback season (after an 0-4 start) and get that Wild Card bid. Then we finish off with one of the biggest games of the year as LA (9-5) visit San Diego (10-4). A road win by the Express will push them into 1st place in the Pacific with only 1 week left to play. San Diego wants to avoid that at all cost, so you know this one will be intense.
Sunday begins with several games that have only minimal playoff impact, but at 4pm we have a big one. Texas, losers of 3 in a row, are in Denver, where the Gold have won three in a row to claw their way back into the picture. A win by the Gold could be a devastating blow to the Outlaws while also putting Denver in a position to fight for a playoff in the season’s final week. Finally, we finish up the week in Ohio, where the 7-7 Glory are still very much in the Central Division chase as well as the Wild Card hunt. They host the Michigan Panthers, who lead the division only by a tiebreaker over Chicago. A win by Ohio could produce a 3-way tie in the division and produce some serious Week 16 chaos. It is a week to send the kids to their grandparents, call your friends over to the house, put the games on the biggest screen possible and have that cooler of beer ready. This is going to be a weekend of big games, and huge outcomes.
Friday @ 8pm ET Charlotte (7-7) @ Orlando (9-5) NBC
Saturday @ 12pm ET Memphis (11-3) @ Philadelphia (7-7) ABC
Saturday @ 12pm ET Houston (11-3) @ Washington (8-6) FOX
Saturday @ 4pm ET Oakland (8-6) @ Portland (3-11) ABC
Saturday @ 4pm ET New Orleans (8-6) @ Seattle (3-11) FOX
Saturday @ 7pm ET Arizona (12-2) @ Baltimore (8-6) NBC
Saturday @ 9pm ET Los Angeles (9-5) @ San Diego (10-4) ESPN/EFN
Sunday @ 12pm ET Pittsburgh (5-9) @ New Jersey (10-4) ABC
Sunday @ 12pm ET Tampa Bay (3-11) @ Atlanta (3-11) FOX Regional
Sunday @ 12pm ET Jacksonville (5-9) @ Birmingham (5-9) FOX Regional
Sunday @ 4pm ET St. Louis (2-12) @ Chicago (8-6) ABC Regional
Sunday @ 4pm ET Dallas (5-9) @ Las Vegas (6-8) ABC Regional
Sunday @ 4pm ET Texas (8-6) @ Denver (7-7) FOX
Sunday @ 8pm ET Michigan (8-6) @ Ohio (7-7) ESPN/EFN
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