With 7 teams fighting for 4 playoff spots and with 3 divisions still to be locked in, you knew this was going to be a wild Week 16, and so it was. This was one for the stat nerds as tiebreakers were the key to understanding how teams could lose and get in, win and be kept out, or just why any team was placed where they were. It also proved to be a week that would produce some major upheaval on Black Monday as 5 coaching positions became available in less than 12 hours. When it all shook out, all 6 teams that had been in playoff position after Week 15 had berths in hand, but it was not so simple as the weekend played out. It seemed every team needed a certain combination of wins and losses in other games to help them make a move, and in the end, everything still stayed the same. Let’s run it all down, starting with our Big Story, the Blackest of Black Mondays, and then a review of all 14 games and what it means for next week’s Wild Card playoffs.
Black Monday Claims 5 in Biggest Bloodbath in Years
In what some are already calling “Blackest Monday”, five coaches were let go, along with countless coordinators, position coaches, and several GMs. Monday was a bad day to be in charge of a team that underperformed, which means that we are also in for a feeding frenzy as teams seek to find a replacement and fill their staffs this offseason. Here is the report, all 5 positions that are now available for a new hire, none really a surprise, but in their accumulated numbers, a pretty big shift for the 28-team league.
Atlanta’s Tom Ramsey
Eight years of mixed results, two straight 10-loss seasons, and an overall record of 61-65 was enough for the Atlanta Fire to move on from Ramsey. Issues at QB did not help, of course. Neither did ending the year with the 28th rated offense in both scoring and yards gained. Not when your pedigree as a former USFL quarterback and offensive position coach is offensive football. Ramsey will likely return to a role as a QB coach while Atlanta looks to reinvent its offense this offseason, likely leading to another offensive specialist hired as the new Head Coach.
Las Vegas’s Greg Roman
Roman was always on something of a short leash. That is just what happens when you are hired by one owner only to have the team sold to a new ownership group, moved to a new city, and focused on creating a new image. Honestly, most expected Roman to have only 1 year in Las Vegas. He got a second one because last year’s Vipers showed signs that an upswing was on the way. This year’s club had moments too, but the injury to Cody Pickett left the Vipers undermanned down the stretch and a 3-6 second half doomed them to another 10-loss season, and that doomed Coach Roman to being a Black Monday candidate. No clear picture exists of what Steve Wynn and the Vipers ownership group is going to look for next, but you can expect that they will want to make something of a splash.
Seattle’s Stump Mitchell
A former running back in both the NFL and USFL, Stump Mitchell was a classic “players’ coach”, but that only works if you can get the players to outperform expectations. Mitchell seemed to have something going in 2015, when a strong finish led to a 7-9 record and some prognostications that the Dragons would compete for the division this year. That never materialized as Seattle started the year 0-5, ended the first half at 1-7 and finished the year at 3-13. That gap, between what was expected and what resulted, was just too much for the 2nd year coach to overcome. Seattle management voided the 3rd year of his contract and are expected to look at the entire franchise for a full makeover. What that means for 1st year starter Jacoby Brisset remains to be seen, though the young QB was by no means the main reason the Dragons struggled.
Tampa Bay’s Mike Shula
The first of two coaches with a championship ring to be let go on Monday. Shula peaked in his first year with the club, taking a team largely built by his predecessor, Steve Spurrier, to a league title. Since then it has been the law of diminishing returns. The retirement of Daunte Culpepper proved to be the pivotal moment for the Bandits as they slipped from 12-4 with Culpepper in 2014 to 4-12 without him in 2015. Repeating that 4-12 record this year, paired with ongoing questions about the QB position was the end of the line for both Shula and for GM Ryan Herman. Both were let go on Monday and Tampa Bay will be looking for both positions in the next few weeks, with ownership already saying they want the positions filled before the NFL-USFL transfer window opens up. Could they be looking at former FSU star and current NFL free agent E. J. Manuel as a possible import?
St. Louis’s Bruce Arians
This one was always a big question mark for us. Arians had some truly great results in St. Louis. He helped make Josh Freeman an MVP and brought a title to the Gateway City as recently as 2012. And yet, since that magical year, every arrow has been pointing downwards in St. Louis. The Skyhawks dropped to 8-8 the year after their title, then fell even further in 2014, dropping to 4-12 in 2014. Last season saw them compete for a playoff spot, finishing 10-6 and earning a Wild Card berth, but this year, one in which they were again seen as a potential contender, it very much felt like the wheels had fallen off. The Skyhawks finished with the worst record in the league (tied with Tampa and Atlanta) at 3-13, with a bottom 10 offense and defense. Josh Freeman looked like a shadow of his former self, and several players, including star wideout Jordy Nelson have vocally said they want to move on. It seems the team is also interested in moving on, as they released Arians on Monday. There is a chance he, like John Fox before him, gets quickly picked up by one of the other 4 teams in the market right now. After all, his resume is pretty strong, even if the past few years have not gone as planned.
Outside of Arians, or any of the recently sacked coaches, who is under consideration for a position at the top? Well, after they amazing year they have had, particularly on offense, Memphis OC Kyle Shanahan, son of former Stallion head coach Mike Shanahan, could be on a lot of short lists. Several teams may also be thinking of a shift of style, and if they are thinking more aerial assault, the obvious candidate is Mouse Davis protégé, Hawaii and SMU coach, and a true Run & Shoot (now called “Spread”) maven, June Jones. Not exactly a new name in the world of the USFL, having worked with the Gamblers and Denver Gold back in the early days of the league, but certainly an offensive innovator. One other name to keep in mind is former USFL quarterback, twice head coach in the league, and most recently head coach of UCLA, Rick Neuheisel. Success at both Washington and UCLA have largely erased the shaky work he did with the expansion LA Express back in the mid-90’s. He could well be seen as a coach who can both design offenses and manage the team rosters, as he did in his college position. But, let’ s not jump the gun, there is time to consider options as teams start to interview. For now, we leave the Black Monday carnage with 5 positions and plenty of opportunity for a restart for these franchises.
Rather than post only one game, we thought it more interesting to work through the two impactful Saturday Night games as they happened. The two games, Chicago at Philadelphia and Texas at Michigan had playoff implications for all four teams. Both Texas and Philadelphia would be eliminated with a loss (and needed help even with a win), while Michigan and Chicago had the Central Division title on the line. Michigan would earn it as long as they did not lose and see Chicago win, while Chicago needed help from the Outlaws and a win over Philly to secure the title only 1 year after finishing at 3-12-1.
8:00 PM ET: Both games kick off, with Michigan and Philadelphia getting first possession
after the coin toss.
8:09 ET: The Panthers put the first points up of the night, a 9-play drive ending with a
Mat Prater field goal.
8:11 ET: In Chicago the Stars draw first blood as Matt Gutierrez hits Cameron Brate for
a 5-yard TD pass.
8:24 ET: Michigan adds a second Prater field goal after causing Texas to go 3-and-out.
8:27 ET: Only 3 minutes later, Chicago is on the board at home, Doug Martin scoring
from the 7 on a nice toss play. Score tied at 7, while Michigan leads 6-0.
8:33 ET: Texas takes the lead in Michigan. Roosevelt Nix gets a rare carry and takes it in
as Texas was aided by a defensive pass interference call in the endzone a play
earlier. Texas 7-Michigan 6.
8:38 ET: Mike Nugent gives Philadelphia the lead again, ending the first quarter in
Chicago with a 21-yard field goal after a nice goal line stand by the Machine
defense.
8:51 ET: Chicago equalizes the score once again with William Hopper’s 46-yard field
goal.
8:58 ET: A 24-yard pass from Cousins to Cody Latimer puts the ball inside the 5 and
LeVeon Bell pushes it across the line form there to give Michigan a 13-17
lead.
9:09 ET: Texas responds with a 12-play drive, ending with Joe Flacco hitting Chastin
West from 14 yards out on a nice fade route that gives the Texans the lead at
14-13.
9:11 ET: Philadelphia once again takes the lead, Mike Nugent again. Stars 13-10.
9:21 ET: Ryan Fitzpatrick’s pass is tipped by LB Dan Connor and ends up in the hands
of Prince Charles Iworah, who returns the pick 36 yards for a score. The pick-
six gives the Stars a 10 point lead at 20-10.
9:28 ET: The Texas-Michigan game goes to the half with Texas up by 1. With both
Michigan and Chicago trailing, the Panthers would have the Central title and
Chicago would be in competition with several teams for a Wild Card. Texas
would be one of those teams, while Philadelphia would be in the mix in the
East at 9-7.
9:33 ET: Chicago pulls within 3 on a nice Fitzpatrick to Dobson strike in the final
minute of the half. The Machine are within 3 as the game goes to the half.
9:54 ET: Texas gets another score, with Marquise Goodwin going in motion and taking
the shovel pass from Flacco on a modified jet sweep. The speedy Goodwin
gets in for the 1-yard TD and Texas now holds a 21-13 advantage, meaning
Michigan will need to go for 2 to tie the game if they can score.
10:17 ET: After a long Chicago drive ends with a turnover, Philadelphia once again
extends their lead when Zac Stacy runs the ball in on 1st and goal from the 1.
The Philadelphia lead is back to 10.
10:22 ET: Only 5 minutes later (real time) Chicago pulls right back again with Fitzpatrick
hitting Dobson for his second TD of the day, a post-corner route that burns
the secondary and puts them on the board from 25 yards out.
Philadelphia 27-Chicago 24.
10:29 ET: Michigan pulls within 2 points when LeVeon Bell dives into the endzone, but
the following 2-point play is disrupted when Texas DT Luis Castillo bursts
through the line and forces Kirk Cousins to make a desperation throw. The
score sits at Texas 21 Michigan 19 with a quarter left to play.
10:37 ET: Chicago equalizes the score in Philly with a 36-yard William Hopper field goal.
If they can pull ahead, they would be in position to win the Central, with
Michigan trailing at home.
10:44 ET: A promising Michigan drive is cut short at the Texas 41 when TE Rob Housler is
hit by Texas LB Vontez Burfict. The Outlaw LB falls on the ball, retains it during
the dogpile and Texas takes over possession.
10:51 ET: Michigan forces a Texas punt as Marshawn Lynch (who would finish the game
with 104 yards) is stuffed behind the line on a 3rd and 4 attempt. The Panthers
take over with just under 3 minutes left to play.
10:52 ET: Philadelphia fails on 3rd and 6 from the Chicago 18-yard line, but are still well
in range for Mike Nugent, who puts a 3rd FG on the board and gives
Philadelphia a 30-27 advantage with less than a minute left to play in the game. This lead would give the Central Division to Michigan regardless of he
Panther-Outlaw result.
10:58 ET: Michigan lines up for a game winning 51-yard field goal with only 7 seconds
left in regulation. Matt Prater’s kick sails wide and Texas takes the win. They
are now in the mix in the West, while Michigan has to hope that Chicago
cannot come back in their game.
11:06 ET: The final ticks of the clock in Philadelphia have Chicago trying a Hail Mary from
their own 44. The ball reaches only the Philadelphia 12, where a swarm of
players flail at the ball and it falls to the ground. Philadelphia and Texas have
both defeated their central division foes.
The results provide Michigan with the Central Division title. Chicago now must wait and see if they get a favorable cluster of 9-7 teams to allow them to advance on tiebreakers. Texas is in that mix with their victory, but Denver’s earlier win is a possible problem for them. Philadelphia improves to 9-7, but they need Charlotte to win over Memphis in order to force a 3-way decision. If they remain tied with Baltimore head-to-head, they are out. In the final results of the week, we would see the weirdness of playoff positioning as the two losers in this pair of games will qualify for the postseason, while the two winners, both now sitting at 9-7 end up on the outside looking in.
CHICAGO MACHINE 27 PHILADELPHIA STARS 30
TEXAS OUTLAWS 21 MICHIGAN PANTHERS 19
TAMPA BAY 28 JACKSONVILLE 20
The Bandits start the game with a pick-6 of Bulls’ backup Chase Daniel and roll from there. Both Tampa Bay (Pat White) and Jacskonville (Daniel) played their backups throughout, though the Bandits did allow Chris Johnson to remain in for 3 quarters. Johnson responded with 78 yards and 2 scores as he tries to boost his value ahead of joining free agency. The game allowed Mike Shula to exit the franchise on a positive note, with a win, though some fans were hoping a loss might lead to better draft position.
POTG: Bandit FS Lemarcus Joyner: 5 Tck, 2 Int, Def TD
LAS VEGAS 20 ORLANDO 27
Both teams let their starters play in this one, except for Calais Campbell, who is still dealing with a minor injury. Vegas played tough, with Jeff Tuel going 26 of 41 without Campbell chasing him. Russell Wilson threw for 2 scores and ran for another. The combo of Moreno and Murray added 83 yards on the ground as Orlando improved to 10-6 and prepared to host a Wild Card game next week.
POTG: Orlando QB Russell Wilson: 13/29, 220 Yds, 2 TD, 2 Int, 5 Att, 14 Yds, 1 TD
ATLANTA 13 DENVER 16
It was a slog, but Denver got the W they needed to have any chance at a Wild Card spot. DeMarco Murray had 65 yards on the ground and had one catch for a big play, 41 yards and his 2nd TD to earn Kyle Orton returned to the starting lineup for Atlanta, throwing 2 picks, and may well be on the trading block this offseason.
POTG: Gold HB DeMarco Murray: 22 Att, 65 Yds, 1 TD, 1 Rec, 41 Yds, 1 TD
DALLAS 21 ARIZONA 38
David Carr, having missed the past 2 games, came back in this one to knock the rust off before Arizona’s bye. Even with Gore and Antonio Bryant on the sideline, Arizona had more than enough, with Larry Fitzgerald wrapping up the receiving title with 109 yards and yet another touchdown. Jimmie Graham also scored and the Arizona defense, with several starters resting, gave up 324 yards to Johnny Manziel, but still held Dallas in check most of the game.
POTG: Wrangler QB David Carr: 13/20, 301 Yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
PITTSBURGH 34 BALTIMORE 28 OVERTIME
A bad loss for a Blitz team that would have automatically qualified with a win. Kevin Hogan stunned the Blitz faithful, throwing for 3 TDs and building a 28-13 lead before Baltimore clawed back with 15 points in the final quarter. But it was Hogan to Marcus Lattimore for the game winner in overtime to stun the crowd and put Baltimore’s playoff hopes in doubt. Would they qualify at 9-7 or get bumped?
POTG: Pittsburgh QB Kevin Hogan: 15/25, 317 Yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
ST. LOUIS 17 WASHINGTON 8
Washington too failed to rise to the occasion with the playoffs on the line. St. Louis, with nothing to lose and the first overall draft pick already assured, came out swinging. Ricky Stanzi threw for 2 scores and the Skyhawk defense played like it was a postseason game, not a run-out-the-string game for St. Louis. Deuce McCallister had only 17 yards rushing despite being in for the entire game. The loss eliminates Washington from the postseason and helps Baltimore, their arch rivals, with tiebreakers.
POTG: Skyhawk WR Eric Weems: 4 Rec, 105 Yds, 1 TD
OAKLAND 16 OHIO 20
A lot of pride shown by the Ohio Glory as they fought to finish the year at 8-8. That meant trouble for Oakland, who were guaranteed a spot with a win, but could not muster the points needed to make it happen. Donald Brown had a strong game, racking up 105 yards on only 12 carries, but Joey Harrington and the passing game struggled and Oakland could not get the ball in the endzone, going only 1 of 5 on red zone touchdowns. Two 2nd quarter Isaiah Pead TD runs gave Ohio a 14-10 lead and they would hold off Oakland in the second half to earn the win and put the Invaders’ playoff hopes in doubt. Oakland would have to hope for the right combination of 9-7 teams for their tiebreaker advantages to assist them.
POTG: Ohio CB Chimdi Chekwa: 5 Tck, 1 Int, 1 FF, 1 FR
NEW ORLEANS 27 NEW JERSEY 6
The Generals rested most of their starters, including QB Brett Hundley and HB Maurice Jones-Drew. The result was a much easier go of it for the Breakers. Drew Brees threw for 286 and 3 scores and the Breaker D picked off backup QB Nick Foles twice as New Orleans improved to 10-6 and assured themselves of the 5th seed, which means a divisional matchup in the Wild Card playoff.
POTG: Breaker QB Drew Brees: 15/25, 286 Yds, 3 TD, 0 int
CHARLOTTE 10 MEMPHIS 20
The Monarchs needed a win to have even a slight chance at a Wild Card, but the Showboats were not feeling generous. With a possibility still on the table for both a division title and the 1-seed, Memphis came out hot and stayed that way, doubling up the Monarchs and eliminating Charlotte from any postseason shot. Robert Woods had a good day with 7 catches for 71 yards and a score, while Brandon Marshall also scored for the Showboats. All they needed now was for Houston to fall to Birmingham and the top seed would be theirs.
POTG: Memphis QB Eli Manning: 26/39, 225 Yds, 2 TD, 1 Int
HOUSTON 31 BIRMINGHAM 23
The Gamblers had no intention of letting Memphis sneak into the Southern title on the last week of the year, but Birmingham gave them a fight. T. J. Yeldon rushed for 100 yards and a score, Amari Cooper had 120 yards of his own through the air, and backup QB A. J. McCarron looked solid subbing for Newton in the finale. But Houston got 99 yards and a score from Carlos Hyde and Matt Hasselbeck threw for 3 scores on the way to the Houston victory and the top seed in the East.
POTG: Houston QB Matt Hasselbeck: 12/15, 277 Yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
LOS ANGELES 34 SEATTLE 24
Sunday Night and two simultaneous games to see who would win the Pacific Division. LA Controlled their own destiny but found Seattle a tougher out than expected. The Dragons actually took a 24-23 lead at the end of the 3rd, but LA dominated the final period, putting 10 points on the board and claiming the division with the win. Reggie Bush was the star for the Express, rushing for 104 and a TD.
POTG: Express LB Keith Rivers: 4 Tck, 2 Sck, 1 FF
PORTLAND 27 SAN DIEGO 20
As tough as Seattle was, Portland proved even more problematic for the Thunder. The Stags built up a 24-14 lead at the half, and while San Diego fought back to 24-20, the news that LA had taken the lead late in Seattle might have reduced the drive of the Thunder as the only 4th quarter points came on a Portland field goal. Ryan Williams was outstanding for San Diego, even in defeat, rushing for 163 yards, but JoeWebb struggled with 4 picks on the day, including a pick-six early in the game to Portland’s Dale Luong.
POTG: Portland CB Dale Luong: 4 Tck, 1 Int, 1 Def TD
Backing In is Just Fine for Blitz, Panthers, Invaders, and Machine.
Tiebreakers are weird beasts, in part because sometimes it is the combination of teams that finish with the same record which makes all the difference. That was certainly the case this year for Denver, Texas, and Philadalphia, all of whom won this week only to be excluded, while Michigan, Chicago and Baltimore all lost, but still made the postseason. Whether it is division record (Michigan and Baltimore) or conference record (Chicago) that did the trick, it certainly was not final week performances.
Denver has to be the most downhearted after the weekend because they finished the season with a 5-game win streak but it was still too little, too late. Texas snapped a 5-game losing streak with their win in Michigan, but the damage had already been done, with the Outlaws dropping from 8-2 to 8-7 with just the finale left. Baltimore had survived an 0-4 start by going 9-3 over the final 3 quarters of the season, while Chicago won 5 of 6 prior to the Philadelphia game, putting them in good position to absorb a Week 16 loss and still qualify. Ending with an 8-4 conference record put them ahead of Texas (6-8) and Denver (6-8). Baltimore edged Philadelphia thanks to their division record, 4-4 to Philly’s 2-6 mark. The result is that there are 3 teams that can take pride in finishing with a winning record, but must accept that it was not enough to get them into the playoff field.
Surprise Success Stories Make Pundits Look Bad Again
Every year we make picks in our preseason edition and every year we find ourselves woefully inaccurate and just plain wrong. Just look at this year’s surprise playoff teams and look where we picked them and you see why we always warn you not to bet the mortgage on our preseason prognostications.
Back in early March we said that Los Angeles would finish 4th or 5th in the Pacific, winning 5 games. All they did was finish 11-5 and atop the Pacific as one of the hottest teams in the league. LA is riding a 7-game win streak. Even at midseason when they were 4-4 they were outperforming our preseason expectations, but the past 2 months have seen them morph into one of the toughest outs in the game.
Memphis was equally undervalued in our preseason report. We had the Showboats as the 22nd best club in the league, finishing dead last in the 4-team Southern Division and lucky to win 6 games. We fully expected Paxton Lynch to be starting by mid-year, and did not see the rise of Coach Ryan’s defense or the sudden positive shift in Eli Manning’s play. Now we are looking at the 2nd best record in the East in Memphis, Manning as a likely All-USFL selection, and perhaps the hottest free agent in the league.
New Jersey is our third case study in preseason blindness. Rated 23rd out of 28 teams, we felt pretty confident that the Generals would finish 5th in the NE Division, having chosen Philadelphia as the team to challenge Baltimore and Pittsburgh. We did not see a collapse for the Maulers or significant improvement for the Generals. This one was perhaps the most out of left field simply because the Generals were putting their trust in 2015 draft pick Brett Hundley, with Nick Foles as a possible alternative, at QB. The Generals blew away our preseason pick of 5 wins, racking up 11 on the season.
Finally, there is Chicago. Now, let’s be clear. We may have looked at the league’s worst team from 2015 and expected modest improvement, but so did you. There were not a lot of folks expecting first year coach Lovie Smith and newly acquired QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to take a 3-win Machine club and immediately turn them into a division contender. But football can take turns like this and Smith absolutely deserves some attention for Coach of the Year in getting the Machine to jump up 6 games from 3-12-1 to 9-7 in one year. Up until this final week, Chicago was in a position to possibly win the Central Division, and they will still have something to prove when they take the field next week against the Panthers in the Wild Card round.
So, we were wrong. We admit it. But you should be honest with yourselves as well. Did you pick these 4 teams to jump into the playoff hunt this year? All of them? Maybe just 1? Maybe none of them, right?
Three of Four Wild Cards Will Be Divisional Affairs
Something about the way the USFL is structured, or perhaps just fate, but far more often than in the NFL we see Wild Card playoff that stack divisional opponents agsinst each other. That is certainly the case this year, where 3 of the 4 Wild Card games are intra-divisional rematches. We start on Saturday with 6-seed Chicago Machine headed to Michigan to face the 3-seed Panthers. The truth is that these two are not as widely separated as their seeding would indicate. Both finished the year at 9-7, with Michigan winning the title on tiebreakers. The two played a back-to-back series in weeks 9-10, with both home teams taking the W. Since then Chicago has gone 4-2 while Michigan finished 3-3, so you tell me which team is the true favorite in this one?
Sunday has two divisional matchups on tap. We open with Memphis hosting New Orleans. The 12-4 Showboats have been a huge revelation this year, but now face the defending Summer Bowl Champion in the 10-6 Breakers. Memphis did sweep the series with the Breakers this year, but you know the old saying about beating the same team 3 times in a season. And when that other team has the type of playoff experience that the Breakers do, you know this won’t be a cakewalk. Not only that, but we get a great showdown of veteran QBs with Eli Manning leading the Showboats against Drew Brees and the Breakers.
The weekend concludes with a Pacific Division clash as another upstart, the San Diego Thunder, who spent most of the year in first place only to be ousted late by the Express, get to host an in-state battle as Oakland, who slipped to the 6 spot, comes to Snapdragon Stadium. It will be the Thunder’s first playoff game in San Diego, and the first home playoff game for the Thunder as a franchise since 2012. Oakland has more experience, to be sure, but the Thunder have been riding their Top 5 defense to victories all season and could see a very large and very enthusiastic crowd on hand for the SoCal-NorCal matchup.
Not to be outdone, we should mention Saturday’s Baltimore-Orlando game. With Calais Campbell expected back, we should have a classic offense v. defense showdown. Can Big Ben and the Blitz put their offense into high gear against one of the best defensive lines in the game? Or will Russell Wilson prove to be an effective weapon against a somewhat more pliable Baltimore defense. Not a divisional game, but a good one nonetheless.
Carr Finishes Season Off Leaderboard, Bell & Fitzgerald Cruise to Stat Titles
A quick look at the league leaderboard at the end of the year shows us that controversy cannot even escape the plain numbers of the statistics page. David Carr, considered the frontrunner for the MVP award is nowhere to be seen on the passing stats board. He finished the year with too few pass attempts to qualify for the leaderboard, despite the fact that he finished the season with the most passing touchdowns (36) and managed to put up 3,921 yards, good enough for 4th best. What is worse, his QB Rating of 136.1 would have put him at the very top of the rankings, over 20 points higher than Ben Roethlisberger, who we find at number one on the official statistics.
No such controversy in other areas of the leaderboard as LeVeon Bell easily won the rushing title, with over 150 more yards than 2nd place finisher Marshawn Lynch. Bell’s run at the league record came up quite short, but his season is still a testament to his talent as he outpaced all contenders for over 12 weeks, remaining on top of the board from the first month through the end of the year.
Larry Fitzgerald similarly led the receiving list nearly the entire year, despite never being among the receptions leader. Fitzie finished the year with 1,697 yards, nearly 200 more than 2nd place Brian Hartline. He did this on only 61 receptions, more than 40 behind receptions leader Aaron Dobson of Chicago (105). The reason? Yards per catch in Arizona’s vertical game. Both Fitzgerald and his teammate Antonio Bryant finished the year averaging over 25 yards per catch. No “possession receiver" here, only home run hitters.
On defense, there was no doubt who would finish with the sack lead. For the 8th straight season Calais Campbell took the trophy, racking up his 32 sacks by Week 14, before sitting out the last 2 games with a nagging injury. Von Miller finished 2nd with a very respectable 23 sacks, but that is still 9 fewer than the Master. Hunter Hillenmeyer of Las Vegas had a strong June, pulling from 3rd to 1st in tackles and finishing with 13 more than 2nd place Bobby Wagner (OAK), 132-119. Finally, New Orleans’s Randall Gay caught and overtook Philip Buchanon and Nate Allen, with a pick-six wrapping up his season with an 8th pick for the year, enough to win the title of the league’s best turnover magnet for the year.
Oakland Loses Ertz for Playoffs
The Invaders earned a playoff spot despite a Week 16 loss at Ohio, but perhaps the bigger loss was due to injury. Tight End Zack Ertz, a mainstay of the team’s frequent 2 TE sets, along with Richard Rodgers, suffered a broken wrist after falling out of bounds blocking on a sweep. Ertz collided with one of the benches on the sideline, causing the injury. Ertz, who had 34 catches for 276 yards with the Invaders, often lined up with Rodgers opposite him, with Coach Green using motion to overload one side of the field. Both Rodgers and Ertz are also strong receivers, used often to overload zone defenses or set up bad man-on-man matchups for linebackers. Ertz will be in a cast for the next few weeks and then will require at least a month of therapy to get the wrist back in playing shape.
The Invaders have 2 other tight ends on the roster, with Rodgers and Austin Hooper, and it is expected that rather than sign a third TE off of free agency, they will go with just two, using WR Derek Hagan or OT Kirk Chambers as a third option depending on the formation (passing or running). The injury may also lead Oakland to use more 3-wide formations. The Invaders had one of the lowest percentages of 3-receiver use in the league, but now it may be expected that we will see more of Pierre Garçon in 1st and 2nd downs, rather than primarily in long yardage passing downs.
By now we expect you have gotten the lay of the land as far as who is in and who is out, but let’s run through it very quickly before we preview the Wild Card round below in our “Upcoming Action” Section. In the East, Houston holds on to the Southern Division title and the 1 seed with their win over Birmingham. The Gamblers finish an impressive 13-3 and will have the bye this week and home field throughout the playoffs. In the 2nd slot in the East we have the 11-5 New Jersey Generals, who clinched the division a few weeks back and now get a bye as well.
In the West, Arizona has had the 1 seed and the bye it provides in hand for some time. They will await a Wild Card winner in the Divisional Round. The LA Express, coming in hot with a 7-game winning streak have won the Pacific Division over the San Diego Thunder. They too will have a bye and await the results of the Wild Card round. In that round, the 3rd best division winners, in this case Orlando in the East and Michigan in the West, will host the 6th seed in each conference. That pits the Panthers against a familiar foe, division rival Chicago, while Orlando will take on the Baltimore Blitz, who finished 2nd in the NE Division. The other Wild Card matchups will feature the 4th and 5th seeds, and both of those matchups are also divisional games, with San Diego hosting Oakland and New Orleans visiting Memphis. Memphis at 12-4 becomes one of the rare wild card teams with 11 or more wins in a season, a result of Houston’s 1-game lead in the division.
The USFL does not reseed after the first round, which means that Arizona would face the winner of the San Diego-Oakland game, LA the winner of the Michigan-Chicago, New Jersey the winner of Orlando-Baltimore, and Houston the winner of Memphis-New Orleans, regardless of which team wins each matchup. That lineup assures at least 1 divisional rivalry match in the next round as the two Southern Division teams will battle to see who will visit Houston, yet another division rival. A second divisional matchup is also possible if Baltimore can upset Orlando in Orlando, setting up a trip to New Jersey.
2016 is also a bit unusual for the league in that we ended the year with three teams that finished above .500 but did not qualify for the post-season, the most we have had in that situation in nearly a decade. Philadelphia, Texas, and Denver all finished 9-7 but lost out on tiebreakers to the Baltimore Blitz, Oakland Invaders, and Chicago Machine.
Rather than run through the full injury report, we have chosen, as we usually do for our Week 16 report, to provide you with only those injuries which will impact our Wild Card round. We will list the injuries for each team and then highlight how each matchup may be affected, starting with the early game on Saturday, Baltimore @ Orlando.
BAL: No injuries reported.
ORL: CB K. Johnson (OUT), OT J. Carpenter (OUT), WR B. Perriman (Q)
The Blitz come in healthy while Orlando has 2 player out for certain and could possibly be without wideout Brashard Perriman. So, the clear advantage goes to Baltimore, the healthier team.
CHI: CB J. Poyer (P)
MGN: WR J. Jerrigan (OUT), CB D. Kirkpatrick (OUT), OT A. Peat (Q)
Chicago will miss cornerback Jordan Poyer, likely filling in with nickel back Captain Munnerlyn, a savvy veteran of 7 seasons. For Michigan, the biggest loss is certainly CB Dre Kirkpatrick, though they have been playing without the All-USFL corner for several weeks, so no new adjustments will be needed.
NOR: HB D. Wilson (OUT), DT R. Jean-Francois (D), DT B. Logan (P)
MEM: WR M. Clayton (D)
Memphis will certainly miss WR Mark Clayton if he cannot play. Clayton had 76 receptions and 892 yards this year. He will likely be replaced by former Texas deep threat Brandon Marshall, a fact that may entice Eli Manning to attempt more deep throws than usual. For New Orleans, HB David Wilson has been out for a few weeks and we have seen that they have felt comfortable putting Jawan Jamison in whenever Jeremy Hill needs a breather. Their more immediate concern is the loss of space-eating DT Rickey Jean-Francois, especially if Memphis is going to hit them with both Todd Gurley and Anthony Allen as a 1-2 inside punch.
OAK: TE Z. Ertz (OUT), DT R. Nunes-Roches (P), LB N. Koutavides (P)
SD: DE A. Ogunleye (OUT), QB C. Ponder (OUT), DT F. Moala (OUT)
Oakland is hoping that both Nunes-Roches and Koutavides are able to go on Sunday. Missing either would hinder the run defense against former Invader Ryan Williams. Missing both would be a huge hole to deal with. For San Diego, the only new injury is to DT Fili Moala, a swing player who often subbed for Haloti Ngata when the starter needed a breather. Expect 2nd year DT D. J. Reader to take on that role with Moala out.
League Reverses Field, Set to Implement Bye Weeks in 2018
The USFL and USFLPA announced this week that they have come to an agreement to include a bye week in the league’s schedule beginning with the 2018 season. The league had rejected the inclusion of a bye week for 2017 earlier this year, but after continued discussion with the players’ union, which was pushing the concept, the league agreed that with the additional year of preparation they could implement a one week bye for each team in 2018. The players have been pushing for a midyear bye for several years, citing injury concerns, increased physicality in the game, and simple fatigue. The league, concerned that the bye weeks would produce issues with their television partners, had been very resistant to the idea, but have been in discussions with all 4 broadcast partners, and a deal has been reached.
The new schedule will contain the same number of games as the current schedule, allowing each broadcast partner the same number of games to televise, but with several weeks in the midseason having reduced participation, adding a 17th week to the season but with 3 weeks impacted. The league opted to go with a more compressed bye period, limited to 3 weeks, rather than the protracted NFL style for byes which sees some teams receiving a bye as early as Week 4 of the season and as late as Week 15. The USFL model will put all byes between weeks 8-10, meaning that between 8-12 teams will have a bye at the same time. The goal is to give each team a midseason bye, while limiting the number of impacted weeks to a minimum. No further details of the plan have been released. We should expect to see the 2018 schedule published in early October of 2017. For the upcoming year, the schedule will remain at the traditional 16 weeks, with a mid-March start and a final week at the end of June.
Union, League Seek New CBA for 2018 Season
Following the conclusion of the bye week concept, discussions between the USFL and USFLPA continue with the hopes at arriving at a new CBA (collective bargaining agreement) in time for the 2018 season. The USFLPA is pushing on four main issues: an increase in the revenue percentage allocated to the players, which leads to an increase in the team salary caps; an increase to the veteran minimum salary to offset increased rookie pay scales; greater league contributions to the support fund for retired veterans (a medical and financial support plan for veterans of at least 5 seasons in the league), and greater funding for CTE research related to brain injuries.
The league is amenable to the third and fourth demands, both of which produce positive public image for the league, but argue that increasing support for both CTE research and post-retirement support make it impossible for the league to also increase player compensation and salary cap numbers beyond the annual growth in revenue. Discussions to date have been amiable, with both sides feeling positive that an agreement can be reached before the current CBA expires in December of 2017, however, as with all labor-management negotiations, the closer to that expiration the discussions reach, the more we tend to see tension and the possibility of disruption of league activities. Let us hope that the two sides can reach a deal well before the tensions reach a boiling point.
Still No Timeline in San Antonio
That is the word out of the state of Texas where the courts have gotten involved in the dispute between the USFL, the City of San Antonio, and Chubb, the insurers of the Alamodome. While demolition of the facility is ongoing, the timeline for development of a new domed stadium remains very much in the air as several parties, including former Outlaws owner Red McComb and his growing investment group, bring suit against Chub in hopes of greater compensation from the insurer for the damage to the Alamodome. All parties in the suit are committed to a construction project for a new Alamodome stadium, with the USFL having committed as well to return a franchise to San Antonio when and if a new facility is completed, but the issue is who is funding that project.
McCombs and his partners have said that they are willing to put up 60% of the construction costs for full fiduciary and logistical control of the facility, a deal the city seems willing to accept. However, both the investors and the city are still pushing for a significant portion of the funding to come from the insurance policy on the original structure. Were Chubb to lose the legal wrangling, they would be responsible for up to $900M of the project, more than 80% of the estimated cost for a new domed stadium in the city. However, the odds of a full victory are quite slim as Chubb has presented significant evidence that the 2011-2012 renovation of the facility was significantly flawed and produced major concerns with the facility which were exposed by the tornado damage. Legal experts anticipate that a settlement which might provide the city with perhaps $300M is more likely, which would still help reduce the public cost for the new facility. And so, as the courts and the lawyers dispute the case, the plans for a new facility remain in limbo and construction remains without a timeline.
Here we go, playoff football, and with so many divisional rivalry games on the slate, you just know that this will be an intense weekend. It is about pride, but more than anything it is about surviving and advancing to the next round. We have seen a fair share of Wild Card round participants win it all, so for the 8 teams playing this week, the key is to do what is needed to move on and then reassess and adjust as they head into another nasty fight in the divisional round.
9-7 BALTIMORE BLITZ (6) @ 10-6 ORLANDO RENEGADES (3)
Saturday, July 2 @ 3pm ET
Orlando Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
Renegades -1
The only non-divisional Wild Card matchup is a classic battle of unstoppable force and immovable object. The force is Ben Roethlisberger and a Blitz offense that averages nearly 28 points a game. The object is an Orlando front 7 that is Top 5 against the run, 2nd in the league in yards allowed, and, oh yes, has perhaps the greatest edge rusher in pro football history healthy and ready to wreak havoc once again. Who will win out, Big Ben, or Calais Campbell? This will be fun to watch. Of course, on the other side we have Russell Wilson, playing in only his 3rd playoff game as a pro, going up against a Baltimore defense that has given up some pretty big games to opposing passers. Wilson can be effective with his arm or his legs, posing a unique challenge to the Blitz.
OUR PICK: The two did not meet this regular season, so there is little to go on. What we do know is that the key to the entire game is Baltimore’s ability to hand the 3-man line of the Renegades. That is always a tough task, and while Big Ben is famous for extending plays, spending a long time in the pocket may not be a wise choice in this matchup. Give us the Renegades, 19-14.
9-7 CHICAGO MACHINE (6) @ 9-7 MICHIGAN PANTHERS (3)
Saturday, July 2 @ 7pm ET
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Panthers -3
Does it get any better than this? Two teams who have been fighting tooth and nail for dominance in their division ever since the late 1980’s. Representing Detroit and Chicago, these two teams, and their fans, just don’t like each other. The two were part of this year’s (questionable) experiment in scheduling back-to-back games, and what we saw was Michigan barely holding off the Machine in Detroit only to have Chicago return the favor in Chicago. The margin between the two games was 1 point in favor of Chicago (a 6-point Michigan win, a 7-point Chicago win). Expect much the same as the two face off for the 3rd time.
OUR PICK: This one is truly a toss-up. Michigan has the advantage of home field, which will help, but the biggest key is whether or not LeVeon Bell can find space against Chicago’s 4th rated run defense. If he can, then that will open up the play-action passing game for Kirk Cousins. If not, well, Chicago could well keep Michigan in check, wait for opportunities to score, and upend the division champs. We think Bell is motivated, still hoping for an inside shot at swaying MVP voters, so we are going to go with the home team and the run game of Michigan. Panthers in a nailbiter, 21-20.
10-6 NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS (5) @ 12-4 MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS (4)
Sunday, July 3 @ 1pm ET
Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN
Showboats -6
New Orleans may be the defending league champions, but Memphis has looked the better team all season long, sweeping the series with the Breakers 24-17 in New Orleans (Week 2) and 23-10 in Memphis (Week 13). While we are sure that the Breakers are the more experienced playoff team, the Showboats have simply played better ball all year long, and with potential injuries up the center of New Orleans’s defense we think that Todd Gurley and Anthony Allen could have a big day between them in this one.
OUR PICK: We rarely pick any game to be very one-sided, but our gut tells us this will be Memphis and big. Showboats 27-13 over a shell-shocked defending champ.
9-7 OAKLAND INVADERS (5) @ 10-6 SAN DIEGO THUNDER (4)
Sunday, July 3 @ 5pm ET
Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
Thunder -5
This is a tough game to pick for one reason, neither team has looked their best down the stretch. San Diego comes into this game having lost their last three games, all in division, and including a 23-3 beatdown in Oakland. However, the Invaders haven’t exactly been running away with games either. They enter the playoffs 2-2 in their last 4 games, with a pretty bad loss last week in Ohio in a game they needed to win to assure that they would be here. Both teams are going to be missing a couple of key pieces, Oakland with Zach Ertz’s injury likely changing their offensive gameplan, and San Diego thin at Defensive Tackle. It is also a game between two very different coaches. Dennis Green lives on motivation and energy. Dick LeBeau is all about schemes and confusion for the opposition. That should make this a fun one.
OUR PICK: The stadium in San Diego will be rocking. The Thunder should be fired up, so it is on Coach LeBeau to get them to play within themselves. They have lost 3 in a row to end the year, but we still like them in this game, just because we know LeBeau has been a very good playoff coach from his years in Michigan. We are picking the Thunder to make the home fans proud: San Diego 22-17
Comments