2017-2018 USFL Offseason Report

October 14, 2017

After a nearly 3-month hiatus, we are back to review the early offseason for you. It has been a busy fall with the trading block, free agent market, coaching carousel, and even the NFL-USFL transfer window fully engaged. In this first of two offseason reports we will look at the flurry of trades that have played a huge role in the early offseason and the upcoming draft. We will talk free agency, looking at both the biggest signings and the names left out there, we will see what kind of damage the NFL transfer window did to the league’s player pool, and we will take a look ahead to January’s Collegiate Draft, sure to be a wild one with perhaps 5-7 quarterbacks being considered early round choices. It is all right here, the full rundown. All your USFL offseason news and intrigue.

Cap & QBs Create League Wide Swap Meet

We warned everyone that with between 5-7 draft eligible quarterbacks, and a solid pool of talent in other positions, as well as with significant retirements this year, we could see a real flurry of trading in the offseason leading up to January, and we were dead on. The past 3 months have seen trades rumored and trades completed, some dealing with the draft, others with teams trying to purge salary to make room for new signings, and others still just trying to shore up some key positions. The result is a very busy trade wire across the league.

You already know about two teams making deals even before the playoffs ended. Portland kicked us off as they tried to free themselves from an untenable salary cap situation. The Stags sent TE Jordan Cameron to Tampa Bay for some draft picks, and then swapped out WR Brian Quick for CB A. J. Bouye, a move that saved them nearly $1.7M in salary cap considerations. Then, only a week later, we got the first broadside shot related to the 2018 QB pool. Chicago sent two 2018 Open Draft picks to LA, swapping first round positions with the Express (a 7-spot drop for Chicago) while also picking up the Express’s first T-Draft selection, almost certainly a move to get bidding rights to Sam Darnold, the USC quarterback.

Well, Chicago was not the last team to try to gain exclusive USFL access to a top tier QB. With 5 of the top 7 QBs in the draft attending schools within a USFL team’s territorial protected status, and none of them held by teams with deep need at the QB position, trading picks or players to get access to a targeted T-Draft pick was the one sure way to ensure a team would have access to a QB prospect. It is still a risky proposition as all of these QBs are sure to wait out the NFL draft and then play the two leagues against each other to get the better deal and the better placement. So, no guarantees, but to even be in the mix teams had to move. So, where are we there.

Federals Make Their Move to Land Baker Mayfield.

Chicago was first and they are locked in on Sam Darnold. The next to fall was the rights to select Oklahoma University QB Baker Mayfield. There were rumors that Oklahoma might actually trade Joe Flacco and take their own shot at Mayfield, but those proved to be either a smokescreen or a bidding tactic to drive up the price for their first territorial pick. By mid-September, the Outlaws got the bid they wanted, a deal with Washington. The deal sent Oklahoma two draft picks to in 2018, a 2nd rounder and a 6th, along with a swap of two cornerbacks, with Oklahoma getting the more-established Bradley Fletcher and sending backup Richard Crawford to the Feds.  The Feds then get the ability to select any player from OU, OSU or Kansas State before Oklahoma makes their other 2 selections. That pick, without any doubt, will be OU quarterback Baker Mayfield.

A third deal seems to be on the table, with San Diego and Jacksonville discussing a multiple pick swap that would have given the Bulls the option to select UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen using San Diego’s protected pick. However, as of today, the two teams have yet to be able to reach a mutually acceptable deal, and we are hearing that both Tampa Bay and St. Louis may be interested. Meanwhile Philadelphia is playing things very close to the vest, not providing any insight into inquiries about their T-Draft picks, which is fascinating when you consider that between Louisville’s Lamar Jackson and Penn State’s Saquon Barkley, the Stars have more high value trade bait than any team in the league.

Even outside of the QB frenzy surrounding the draft, the combination of offseason player losses and cap space issues has led to a higher-than-normal number of player-for player as well as player-for-pick trades over the past 3 months. With some teams trying to dump higher salaried players and others in a clear buyer’s market, the deals have been surprising in number and in quality. As we look over the deals from the past weeks, we chose six that we think have real intrigue as we look ahead to 2018 rosters.

WR Devante Parker: Las Vegas to San Diego

We had a feeling that the Thunder would respond quickly to Chad Johnson’s retirement, and with Las Vegas looking to purge salary they found a seller right away. By mid-September the deal was done, WR Devante Parker would go from the desert to the Southern California beaches and all the Thunder had to give up was a 4th round pick. Now, Parker is not considered a true number one receiver, but the 3-year vet has shown some flashes, especially as a deep ball receiver. We don’t think San Diego is done seeking WR help, but getting Parker was a low risk, high potential upside deal.

CB Aqib Talib: Denver to New Jersey

Denver is another team with major cap issues, and while it was certainly a painful departure, the decision was made that Aqib Talib and his nearly $4M annual contract was a luxury the team could not afford. The Gold found a willing buyer in New Jersey, where the Generals were more than happy to take on the contract of one of the league’s best cover corners. They sent back to Denver a 2nd round pick in the upcoming draft along with little-used WR J. D. McKissic. By pretty much all accounts a steal for New Jersey, but it does make Denver’s cap situation a good deal more tenable.

DE Kony Ealy: St. Louis to New Orleans

The Skyhawks also had some real issues with the cap, especially if they are pursuing one of the rookie QBs. They too would have to part with a player that few wanted to see go, DE Kony Ealy. The 6th year DE saw his production jump nicely last year, from 4 sacks in 2016 to 8 in 2017, but with a pretty poorly structured deal, St. Louis felt they had to find a new home for the edge rusher. So, off to New Orleans he goes, and in his place, the Skyhawks add a 5th round pick in this year’s draft as well as depth at TE, with the Breakers sending Crockett Gilmore along as part of the deal.

SS Troy Petty (MGN) and DE Dee Ford (LV) swapped.

Well, Troy Petty’s celebration of a Summer Bowl win was short and sweet, but he won’t get to take the field with the Panthers to celebrate on opening day. With the departure of edge rusher Michael Bennett to free agency, Michigan acted quickly to try to add talent at the DE position. They were willing to give up Perry, who backed up Jabril Peppers most of the season, but was called into starting duty when Peppers went out, starting every game of the team’s Summer Bowl run. Perry will now suit up for the Las Vegas Vipers, who just keep making moves, shifting their funds and their roster over the offseason. In return for their safety, Michigan gets Vegas DE Dee Ford, a 4-year vet, had a solid rookie year in Las Vegas in 2014, recording 8 sacks in his first year. His numbers have dipped since then as he shared rotation with Mario Addison and Matthew Judon. In Michigan he will likely line up on the right side, Bennett’s former position, opposite LE Justin Tuck. Perry, for his part, will get a chance to battle for the starting SS position, though veteran Eric Berry could be tough to unseat.

FS Will Allen: Tampa Bay to Birmingham

In what we imagine is a changing of the guard in Tampa Bay, longstanding veteran FS Will Allen, after only 1 season in Tampa Bay, will be off to Birmingham for his 15th season. The veteran of 7 seasons in Oakland, 6 with the Cannons/Roughnecks, and a 15 starts in Tampa Bay, heads to Birmingham with 1 year left on his deal. In return for the veteran safety’s leadership, Birmingham sent the Bandits guard Carl Nicks as well as a 6th round pick this January.

We temporarily leave the subject of player acquisition to talk about another huge part of the offseason, the search and hiring for new coaches. Five teams this offseason are in the hunt, and after 3 months we have 3 of those 5 positions locked down. It took a little while, largely because some of the top candidates were with teams that went deep into the playoffs, but it seems like the pieces are beginning to fall into place, at least for 3 of the 5 teams in need of new leadership.

Houston OC Matt LaFleur spurns Dallas for Portland Job

Teams wanting to talk with Houston OC Matt LaFleur had to wait for several weeks as the Gamblers kept advancing, but, following Summer Bowl 2018, the interviews came fast and furious for the coveted offensive guru. LaFleur was a popular man, meeting with all five USFL clubs that had open positions, while at the same time trying to make a deal for an upgraded contract back in Houston. At one point it seemed all but assured that the man credited with Houston’s high-powered offense, as well as the steady development of Colt McCoy, would be heading just up the road to Dallas. The Roughnecks were wooing him pretty hard, but something apparently just did not feel right for LaFleur. Maybe it was the philosophy of lead owner Mark Cuban, or maybe it was the potential issues dealing with a young QB who was already suspended 6 games for alcohol issues (Manziel).

Whatever the reason, LaFleur kept talking to teams and someone up in Portland must have said the right things because LaFleur finished his grand tour, flew back up to the PNW, and signed on the dotted line. We suspect that the prospect of going to a team that had the league’s rushing leader and a young, moldable QB without the baggage of Johnny Manziel may have been enough to entice LaFleur to take the job with the Stags. He will have some challenges, moving from the 14-2 Gamblers to the 3-13 Stags, but he does have pieces to work with in Portland, including Marcus Mariota, Doug Martin and a young receiving corps that features Brandin Cooks and Alshon Jeffery.

Washington Looks to Renew Defense with Gus Bradley

The Federals had met with LaFleur, but everyone knew that their real focus was defense. Washington was embarrassed by a team that gave up over 360 yards a game last year and had an average margin of defeat over 10 points. For a team with legendary defensive figures like DT Jerome Brown, LBs Antonio Pierce and Michael Barrow, DE Dexter Manley, and CB Charles Woodson in their club history, having one of the league’s worst defenses just did not sit well.

Enter Gus Bradley. Not only does he bring a reputation for hard-nosed, opportunistic defense as his calling card, but by stealing away the DC of the Philadelphia Stars, the Feds get to punish a rival at the same time. Bradley is very familiar with NE Division football and was quick to point out in the presser announcing his hire, that he will enjoy having the chance to continue to torture the Blitz, Generals and Maulers, while now adding Philadelphia to his list of potential victims. The Feds now need to focus on bringing Bradley the bodies he needs to turn gameplans into effective on-field defense, but in hiring the Philly DC, the Federals are stepping into the fray with both feet, hoping to return to their rich tradition as a defensive football team.

Jacksonville Stays in Division, Signs Charlotte's Brian Flores

After flirting with several candidates, the Jacksonville Bulls also opted to pull a coordinator from a division rival, and like Washington, they went with defense. Unlike the Federals, the Bulls’ defense was quite solid in 2017, holding teams to only 18.7 PPG and proving very tough against the run. For that reason, many expected the Bulls to head for an offensively minded coach like a LaFleur or New Orleans OC Matt Nagy. It was a bit of a surprise that they settled on Charlotte DC Brian Flores. Flores has certainly earned the chance to be a head coach, having built a consistently aggressive and effective defense in Charlotte. The concern, of course, is that Flores has little experience with offense or with QB development, and with Jacksonville very much expected to be in the QB hunt this offseason, Flores will be in a position to build a new offensive scheme. Just who he picks to be his OC may well determine what the Bulls will do moving forward as they try to build themselves a full roster that can compete in the very uneven SE Division.

Oakland Still Unsure on Coaching Front

So, three down, two positions left. What about Oakland and Portland? We start with the Invaders, who were handed a short list by Coach Dennis Green when he announced his retirement. We are not sure who is on that list, but we do know that the team has met with Green’s defensive coordinator, Kurt Gouveia, and that they have had interviews as well with former Broncos’ Head Coach Gary Kubiak as well as former Glory head coach Bart Andrus. The indication seems to be that Oakland is not going to play the waiting game for an NFL coach in January, but that they are just not decided yet on any of the available candidates in the pool. We are also not entirely certain which direction Oakland is going. One would imagine that QB development will be a key factor in their search, as the Invaders will be without Joey Harrington for the first time in nearly a decade, but they seem open to building a team of coaches rather than limiting their search on supposed QB gurus. If they are not waiting until January for a high-profile NFL candidate, then the decision should come in the next few weeks, before the holiday lull hits.

Roughnecks Playing the Waiting Game?

Our last leaderless franchise, Dallas, does appear to be playing the waiting game. We reported earlier that they were meeting with a range of coaches, all located in Texas. As of now they don’t seem to have a clear favorite, but they also don’t appear to be in a hurry, having had very few visits to their facilities in the past month. So, what does that indicate? The most likely scenario is that they do have a top choice, maybe 2 potential choices, but that both are not available for interviews at this time. With both the NFL and NCAA seasons in full swing, the expectation is that Dallas is looking at someone currently occupied in fall football. Now, who that could be is wide open. It could be a coordinator, perhaps from the Cowboys or Oilers, but it could also be a head coach from the college ranks, perhaps A&M’s Kevin Sumlin or Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury. Honestly, we are also just working from what may be a very flawed assumption, that the Roughnecks remain focused on Texas and that owner Mark Cuban is not casting a wider net to try to draw a big name from elsewhere. The reality is that what we are seeing in Dallas is an absolute lack of urgency, and that often points to the fact that the man they want is not going to be able to interview until late December at the earliest (for a college coach) or early January if it is an NFL coach.

First week of Free Agency Hits Hard

I suppose we have come to expect this, the very early, very quick flurry of signings, as the USFL free agency period opens 10 days after the Summer Bowl. With barely over a week before the NFL can start signing across the transfer window, USFL teams use this brief early window to try to snap up their top targets before having to face competition from the fall league. It makes for a frantic news cycle, but an exciting one for fans of the spring league. This year was no different, with no fewer than 4 major signings just in the first 12 hours of official free agency, and more beyond that.

It began within an hour of the “opening bell” for the period. For the weeks prior, player agents could speak with teams, but no deals could be signed, but as soon as deals could be signed, they were. The first domino to fall was former Breaker cornerback Patrick Peterson, who became the first official free agent to change teams when he signed a new 3-year, $12M contract to join the Dallas Roughnecks. Just minutes later, news arrived that WR Stevie Johnson had agreed to relocate to St. Louis and become the new presumptive number one receiver for the Skyhawks. That was followed later in the day by two more big signings, DE Michael Bennett leaving the league champion Panthers to become a member of the Oakland Invaders and SS DaJuan Morgan taking a 2-year deal to leave LA and become the newest member of the Denver Gold.

And that was what the first week was largely about, players, typically those within the top 20 of our free agent rankings, taking deals with new teams, often for large paydays compared to their prior contracts. Following the Day 1 signings, we saw two more receivers off the board on Day 2, with Justin Blackmon leaving Ohio for Charlotte and Eric Weems signing on later that same day with Ohio. We also saw the first major lineman signing as guard Kyle Long agreed to the largest deal ever for a USFL player at his position, a 3-year deal worth over $10M to join the Washington Federals. We also saw SS Shaun Schillenger join the Monarchs, giving them two big signings in less than 48 hours.

The top name on our board, halfback Knowshon Moreno, would take 3 more days before settling on a deal, but by Friday he was in Seattle, holding up a Dragons’ jersey and celebrating a new deal that sets him up to be the lead back for the Dragons for the next 3 seasons. Los Angeles also made a couple of big moves before the NFL Transfer Window opened, adding former Jacksonville safety David Bruxton, who could now move from Free to Strong Safety to replace DaJuan Morgan, and adding DT John Jenkins from the Eastern Champion Gamblers. Finally, two often overlooked positions saw some attention as TE Tyler Eifert got a very nice 4-year deal to leave Las Vegas and join the Chicago Machine and FB Roosevelt Nix was brought over from Oklahoma to Memphis, where he will now be creating holes for Todd Gurley to exploit.

It was a wild 9 days ahead of the NFL Transfer Window, but with a lot of talent still available, the NFL had plenty of opportunity to raid USFL talent, and they did so with abandon just as their season was kicking off.    

The two-pronged NFL-USFL Transfer window has developed into a regular rhythm, one that sees the USFL lose a lot of talent each August & September, and the NFL suffer the same fate each February. The cycle means that both leagues are using the window to fill last-minute gaps, including often bringing in players after each league’s regular season has already begun. It is an uneasy schedule, but there really is such a limited “down time” between seasons that the September and February windows are about as close as the two leagues can come to signing each other’s players without negative impacts at the end of each season.

So, what did the autumn window look like? As usual, the emphasis now is on NFL teams signing newly released USFL free agents only 1 week after the league’s internal free agency opened. This year, there was perhaps less of a pool of offensive playmakers but certainly the NFL saw talent on defense and went right after it. How is this for a list of defenders all signed away in the short transfer window? You have CB’s Danieal Manning (NJ) and Charles Godfrey (JAX), FS Darnell Bing (LV), LBs Zak DeOssie (DAL) and Rocky McIntosh (NOR) and a quartet of Arizona Wranglers.

Yup, you read that right, 4 starters, including two legitimate All-USFL stars all left Arizona for various NFL destinations. It started small, with LB Demorrio Williams joining the NY Jets, but then the flood gates opened. Karlos Dansby signed with the NFL Cardinals (staying in Phoenix), Adam Carriker with the Steelers and DT Glenn Dorsey with the Eagles. It was a complete decimation of the Wrangler defense that included 2 team captains, the leading tackler and the sack leader. Arizona essentially has to do a full rebuild on their defense after this NFL tsunami.

Outside of the Wranglers, the NFL spread things out, but the USFL will still lose some quality players, including Bandit TE Greg Olsen, Denver HB Jamaal Charles, WR Danny Amendola (SD), center Kory Lichtenstieger (NJ), Charlotte kicker Brandon Coutu, and backup QBs Matt Moore (BIR) and Adrian McPherson (CHI).

And what about USFL signings? Well, don’t expect to see too many name players. It was mostly a selection for depth, as it often is in the fall, when the NFL season is already kicking off. The USFL will have a richer pool to raid in February, with the NFL releasing their end-of-season free agents just as the USFL did in August. So, who was signed? Here is the short list of USFL acquisitions:

CB Ross Cockrell:                   NY Giants to Arizona Wranglers

WR Leonard Hankerson:       Atlanta Falcons to Atlanta Fire

FB Zach Line:                         New Orleans Saints to Birmingham Stallions

K Chris Boswell:                     Pittsburgh Steelers to Birmingham Stallions

WR Austin Pettis                     Dallas Cowboys to Dallas Roughnecks

TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins   NY Jets to Houston Texans

CB Keenan Lewis                  New Orleans Saints to Jacksonville Bulls

S Lamarcus Joyner               St. Louis Rams to Las Vegas Vipers

C Owen Phillips                     NY Jets to New Jersey Generals

P Matt Haack                        Miami Dolphins to Portland Stags

K Zane Gonzalez                   Cleveland Browns to St. Louis Skyhawks

REMAINING FREE AGENTS

When the Transfer Window closed, it was back to USFL teams trying to land USFL talent. The past couple of weeks have seen a few key signings, most notably that of Memphis HB Anthony Allen, who joins the Federals as they try for a second time to replace Deuce McCallister. The 29-year-old Allen signed a 2-year deal and steps into the lead role in the Federals backfield after some very strong seasons in Memphis. Expect him to take full advantage of the opportunity as Washington is desperate to find a true bell cow, and the very durable Allen seems a very good fit.

Others signed just over the past two weeks include former Stallion center Matt Tenant, who got a nice deal to replace Austin King as the pivot for the Baltimore Blitz; Bulls DT Henry Melton, who will now join the San Diego Thunder in a cross-country relocation, a pair of tight ends shifting locations as Richard Quinn leaves Denver for Las Vegas and the Federals add another piece, signing former Bandit Kellen Winslow II. We also should note a couple of key re-signings as Charlotte holds onto tackle Kevin Beachem and San Diego renews the deal for CB Tye Smith.

So, who is left on the board after this initial flurry? Quite a few big names actually. Perhaps the biggest, and most surprising to still be available, is Houston LT Willie Colon. The Gamblers are still very much in the mix for Colt McCoy’s bodyguard, but he is apparently listening to multiple offers and has yet to make a decision. Others still taking offers include New Jersey DT Amobi Okoye, Portland HB Felix Jones, Arizona CB Brandon Flowers, Houston WR Johnny Knox, Stallion safety Corey White, Portland safety Donte Whitner, Seattle wideout Emmanuel Sanders, and Dallas HB C. J. Spiller. That is just a fraction of the pool still unclaimed, and while there does seem to be some hesitancy to sign players who have hit the later years of their careers, typically anyone at or over 33 years of age, there are also a few younger players also holding out to see what kind of offer they can get.

Before we leave our discussion of veteran USFL players and where they end up, we should acknowledge a few more key retirements that have impacted the offseason plans of their clubs. The wave of announcements slowed down in September, as it usually does, but there were a few players who announced their plans to file for retirement, and several whose absence could be a major offseason factor for their teams.

First among these is New Orleans’s star DE Ty Warren. Warren announced in mid-September, opting to prioritize his health and his family. He played 13 of his 14 USFL seasons in the Crescent City, racking up 137 sacks in his long career, including 8 consecutive 10-sack seasons, with a personal best of 18 sacks in 2015. He retires having helped the Breakers finally get over the hump and win their first league title in 2015.

Also calling it a career were wideout Michael Jenkins of Orlando, FB Madison Hedgecock of the Gamblers, DT DeMarcus Tyler of Charlotte, FS Kenny Phillips of the Panthers, and WR Ben Obamanu of the Ohio Glory. Phillips was a big figure for Michigan this year, leading the league champions with 7 sacks and making the All-USFL team for the first time in his career. The ball hawking safety opted to go out on top, celebrating his career with a championship ring. For Michael Jenkins, 2017 marked his 14th season with the Renegades, a long career that included six 1,000-yard seasons. He retired with over 1,200 career receptions, spanning over 12,000 yards and including 68 career touchdowns. And we should also highlight the contributions of FB Madison Hedgecock. The unheralded life of a fullback does not come with a lot of statistical glory (only 106 carries and 323 yards in 13 seasons), but the work Hitchcock put in, clearing the way for backs like Carlos Hyde, protecting the blindside of QBs Matt Hasselbeck and Colt McCoy, and even catching the occasional pass (40 receptions as a Gambler) are all important contributions to his team.

With so many moving parts, players leaving, players arriving, the list of needs for each USFL club has shifted significantly from just 10 weeks ago. That means the draft priorities have also shifted. As we take a look at January’s 2-stage draft, we try to look at each club, where they are strongest and where they have gaps, what their priorities might be, and try to get a sense of what they might be thinking as they plan to add new talent from the college ranks. It all starts with the Territorial Draft, and this year we have already seen the impact that having some top tier QBs in the mix has done to those territorial picks. We expect to continue to see some trading of picks as teams try to get the exclusive USFL rights to select key targeted players. Then we have the Open Draft, where the GMs are really tested, not only trying to find the best talent in the best position to help their teams, but also assessing a player’s (and an agent’s) willingness to sign on the dotted line rather than playing the USFL against the NFL to increase their draft value.

We are going to look at all 28 USFL clubs, in their pre-trade draft order. We know that this is not likely how the draft will go, as we have already seen a lot of swapping of picks this offseason, but by following the draft order, we are able to start with the teams that likely have the greatest need and move slowly towards those that have more complete rosters (though that is also not 100% fool proof, as the massive NFL defections of Arizona Wranglers has the Wranglers looking a lot more needy than their 15-1 record last year has placed them in the draft order.) We will assess which positions need attention, what options might exist in each team’s territorial pool, and just what they might opt to do in that all-important first round of the Open Draft, a first round where traditionally only one of every two selections ends up signing on to spring football, and where the players at the top of the pool are often the hardest to get into camp. We start with the 3-13 teams from last year, St. Louis, Portland, and Washington, and then work our way down to the two conference champions, Houston and, finally, league champion Michigan.

A couple of notes before we start. First, we will account for those trades we already know about, particularly as we discuss the T-Draft, but we are also going to imagine that the top talent that is not clearly targeted already (like Sam Darnold and the Machine) as if they are available in the first round of the Open Draft. Many of the names we cite will not be, that is the nature of the T-Draft, but every year several top talents are not chosen by the clubs who have their territorial rights. For example, assuming other teams don’t pull off a trade with Philadelphia, the Stars are not going to pick either Lamar Jackson or Saquon Barkley in the T-Draft, so one, or both, could find their way to the Open Draft. In our Round 1 analysis, we will assume both, along with a lot of other big names, are available.

ST. LOUIS SKYHAWKS

Team Needs: LB, DT, QB

Territorial Schools: Missouri, Iowa, Kansas

Top Territorial Talent: The Skyhawks need more speed and grit on defense and the T-Draft may be a big help this year. Iowa, in particular, could help with CB Josh Jackson and LB Josey Jewell. Kansas DE Dorance Armstrong could also be a possible target, as could another Hawkeye, LB Ben Niemann.

First Round Targets: Defense. The pick has to be defense. We are assuming they don’t take a trade offer from a QB-hungry team that loves Josh Allen, so if they stand pat, there are two names that are at the top of the list, DE Bradley Chubb of NC State or LB Roquan Smith of Georgia. Both would be huge help for a pretty porous Skyhawk defense, but will either be there to be chosen?

PORTLAND STAGS

Team Needs: CB, DT, G

Territorial Schools: Oregon, Oregon State, Boise State, Northwestern (2018 Addition)

Top Territorial Talent: The Stags are finding that the combo of Oregon, Oregon State, and Boise State is not a regular gold mine. There are on years and off years. This feels like an off year, though we do like Boise LB Leighton Vander-Esch. We also think Portland will take a look at another Bronco, WR Cedric Wilson.

First Round Targets: Portland has a tough choice. They could potentially draft Josh Allen, or any of the QBs who escape the T-Draft, but they have big money invested in Marcus Mariota, so do they pass and take a CB like Denzel Ward from Ohio State or Jaire Alexander from Louisville. Honestly, neither feels like a 2nd overall selection. So that leaves option 3, trade down a few slots, get a few more picks in the deal and then pick their cornerback.

WASHINGTON FEDERALS

Team Needs: QB, DE, DT

Territorial Schools: Virginia, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt

Top Territorial Talent: You know that the Federals are going to try to land Va Tech LB Tremaine Edwards, a dynamic playmaker for the Hokies. We also think they should invest some scouting time on another Hokie, safety Terrell Edmunds. Heck, let’s make it a trifecta at Va Tech with DT Tim Settle as well.

First Round Targets: The Feds already made their deal to try to land a QB, snagging Oklahoma’s T-Draft pick to get to Baker Mayfield. So, what do they do here? How about Bradley Chubb at DE, and if not available, they could look inside, perhaps Alabama’s Daron Payne or Washington’s Vita Vea.

TAMPA BAY BANDITS

Team Needs: C, SS, TE

Territorial Schools: Florida State, Southern Mississippi, South Florida

Top Territorial Talent: Both FSU and USF have some nice talent to offer the Bandits. From the Seminoles there is safety Derwin James, as well as DT Derrick Nnadi and OT Rick Leonard. From USF you could look at another DT, Deadrin Senat, as well as DE Josh Sweat and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. And let’s not forget their 3rd school, Southern Miss, and their outstanding safety Tarvarius Moore.

First Round Targets: If he is available, Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick would be the ideal pick for the Bandits. Yes, they could go QB, or they could swap out, but we like the prospect of a dynamic, hard-hitting safety in that Bandit defensive backfield.

PITTSBURGH MAULERS

Team Needs: HB,SS,LB

Territorial Schools: Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Iowa State, Indiana (2018 Addition)

Top Territorial Talent: The clear focus point for the Maulers has to be OT Brian O’Neill from Pitt, a road grater who can be a huge asset in the run game. We also like a possible mid-round pick from West Virginia, safety Kyzir White, one of two tempting safeties, along with Pitt’s Jordan Whitehead.

First Round Targets: Having missed out on Knowshon Moreno, outbid by the Dragons, the clear need for the Maulers is at halfback, and, what do you know, here sits Saquon Barkley, unclaimed by Philly in the T-Draft. A Penn State halfback playing in Pittsburgh, that is just too good not to happen.

OAKLAND INVADERS

Team Needs: QB, FS, G

Territorial Schools: California, Stanford, San Jose State

Top Territorial Talent: No help at QB here, but some good talent, including a trio of Stanford Cardinal to scout out: Safety Justin Reed, DT Harrison Phillips, and TE Dalton Schults all would look good in an Invaders’ jersey.

First Round Targets: The Invaders need a QB, so we are going to pencil in Josh Allen right here. That said, we know they also like Josh Rosen from UCLA. No way in the world that San Diego trades with their in-state rival to give Rosen to Oakland, but if Rosen is unclaimed, and it is between the physically-gifted Allen and the much more polished Rosen, we are not sure which way Oakland would go.

CHICAGO MACHINE

Team Needs: LB, TE, QB

Territorial Schools: Notre Dame, Illinois, Northern Illinois

Top Territorial Talent: Perhaps the most pro-ready player in the entire draft could fall into the Machine’s hands if they think he will sign. Guard Quenton Nelson of Notre Dame could be a slam dunk if he is open to the Machine as a destination. Beyond Nelson, the pool drops off a bit, but we do also like another Golden Dome lineman, OT Mike McGlinchey.

First Round Targets: Yes, QB is on the list above, but we already know Chicago is going to use LA’s first T-Draft pick on Darnold, so that leaves the LB position as the top choice. The Machine drop from this 7th pick to the 14th after the trade with LA, so we don’t think Roquan Smith is going to be at 14, but perhaps Va Tech’s Tremaine Edwards or Boise State’s Leighton Vander Esch. Of the two, Edwards makes more sense for what Chicago needs.

MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS

Team Needs: MEM—TE, G, CB

Territorial Schools: Tennessee, Arkansas, Memphis

Top Territorial Talent: Memphis loves center Frank Ragnow of Arkansas, and it is a position of need. Beyond that, the best available player may be Memphis WR Anthony Miller, though we also like what we see in safety Rashaan Gaulden from Tennessee.

First Round Targets: if Denzel Ward is still on the board, we think that is the pick. If not, they could actually go for the interior lineman, which in our mind would mean looking at Quenton Nelson of Notre Dame, the most pro-ready player in the entire draft pool.

ORLANDO RENEGADES

Team Needs: OT, SS, LB

Territorial Schools: Miami (FL), Mississippi State, Central Florida

Top Territorial Talent: An off year for “The U”, so expect Orlando to look across all three schools. At UCF they have a couple of good prospects in CB Mike Hughes and WR Tre-Quan Smith. From Mississippi State, OT Martinas Rankin could be a find, and then at Miami there is DE Chad Thomas and TE Chris Herndon to scout out.

First Round Targets: The top-rated tackle is another Golden Domer, Mike McGlinchey, and we could see Orlando go that direction, especially after seeing Russell Wilson lost for most of 2016, but, if by some miracle Minkah Fitzpatrick is still here, well…

DALLAS ROUGHNECKS

Team Needs: WR, DE, G

Territorial Schools: Texas, Southern Methodist, Texas Christian

Top Territorial Talent: The Roughnecks inherited the Longhorns after San Antonio relocated, and that means they will have access to players like guard Connor Williams, LB Malik Jefferson, and safety DeShon Elliott. But, Dallas needs playmakers and they may have one in SMU wideout Courtland Sutton.

First Round Targets: If Dallas feels good about drafting and signing SMU’s Sutton, than WR may be off the board, but USFL teams love to double dip, picking 2 players at the same position just in case the NFL wins the battle for their top choice. If that is the case, then we could see Dallas pick Sutton in the T-Draft and then go for either D. J. Moore or Calvin Ridley in this slot.

JACKSONVILLE BULLS

Team Needs: DT, QB, FS

Territorial Schools: Florida, Clemson, Georgia Southern

Top Territorial Talent: Not a great draft for offense, so new coach Brian Flores may use the T-Draft to help him build his D. Adding Florida DT Taven Bryan or CB Duke Dawson would be a good start. We also like Clemson LB Dorian O’Daniel as an option there. Oh, and if you want a new kicker, you could do worse than Florida’s Eddy Pineiro.

First Round Targets: If Lamar Jackson is on the board, which is very possible considering Philadelphia’s lack of interest, then we think Jacksonville is the perfect landing spot. Jackson is basically a younger, healthier, perhaps even better version of Robert Griffin III, so he should be a good match to join an offense already designed around RGIII.

ATLANTA FIRE

Team Needs: HB, DE, G

Territorial Schools: Georgia, Georgia Tech, Georgia State

Top Territorial Talent: The fire have many needs, and Georgia has 5 potential “first day” draft candidates to help them with that wishlist. We start with LB Roquan Smith, a legitimate overall number one pick in an open draft. Then you have OT Isaiah Wynn, LB Lorenzo Carter, oh, and how about not one, but two halfbacks who look like early round picks? Take your pick between Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. Both have real pro potential.

First Round Targets: The Fire would love to see Barkley here, but there is no way he slips past the Maulers. They have two good HB options in the T-Draft, so perhaps they go for DE here. If Chubb is here, he is the pick, if not, then UTSA end Marcus Davenport is the obvious choice, especially because he cannot be claimed in the T-Draft.

OKLAHOMA OUTLAWS

Team Needs: DE, OT, FS

Territorial Schools: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Top Territorial Talent: We finally get to the first team with a top tier QB to consider, and we already know the plan. Back in July we thought they might seriously trade Flacco and take a run at OU’s Baker Mayfield. They didn’t. They instead traded their 1st T-Draft pick to the Federals, so expect Mayfield to be the target for Washington. As for Oklahoma’s other two picks, they have to be looking at WR James Washington from OSU, and while they are there, maybe scout out QB Mason Rudolph, who could be a nice 2-3 year backup for Flacco before taking over, much as McCoy did with Hasselbeck in Houston.

First Round Targets: If Davenport is here, he is the best option for the Outlaws. If not, then they could look at OT Kolton Miller of UCLA or Isaiah Wynn of Georgia, either of whom make sense for their new run-focused offensive scheme.

LOS ANGELES EXPRESS

Team Needs: DE, CB, WR

Territorial Schools: Southern Cal, Hawaii, Fresno State

Top Territorial Talent: Another top tier QB prospect and another early trade, with the Express sending the pick, and the rights to select USC QB Sam Darnold, to Chicago even before the USFL playoffs had concluded. So, LA has 2 territorial picks left. Do they go for defensive talent like USFC linebacker Uchenne Nwosu or DE Rasheem Green? Or do they look to find a nice complement to Reggie Bush with another Trojan, HB Ronald Jones II?

First Round Targets: They traded away the rights to Sam Darnold, moving up from 14th to 7th in the Open Draft first round. So, with the 7th pick do they go for defense (Chubb, Ward, or Davenport) or do they go for a playmaking wideout? Looking at the WR group, we would love to see Calvin Ridley join this Express squad.

OHIO GLORY

Team Needs: FS, C, LB

Territorial Schools: Ohio State, Cincinnati, Kentucky

Top Territorial Talent: The Glory must save so much money on scouting. They just set up camp in their own backyard at OSU and scout Buckeyes all year long. This year that likely pays off. Look at this roster of potential talent: CB Denzel Ward, C Billy Price, DE Tyquan Lewis, LB Jerome Baker, DE Sam Hubbard, DE Jalyn Homes, and OT Jamarco Jones. And that is without even looking at Cincinnati and Kentucky. Must be nice.

First Round Targets: With little chance at Fitzpatrick, we think Ohio plays it safe and goes for the top rated center in the draft (Assuming the Showboats stay away with their territorial picks), Arkansas’s Frank Ragnow, a monster in the run game and solid against inside pressure.

BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS

Team Needs: DE, HB, C

Territorial Schools: Alabama, Auburn, UAB

Top Territorial Talent: No one milks the local talent pool quite like the Stallions. And when you have Auburn and Bama to choose from, the talent is rarely tough to find. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has expressed interest in the NFL, where he could be a Top 5 pick, even with all the QBs this year, so we expect Birmingham to avoid him and focus on others like DT Daron Payne, WR Calvin Ridley, HB Kerryon Johnson and guard Braden Smill, all first day picks in most people’s eyes.

First Round Targets: With so much to choose from in the T-Draft, we are not sure which priority positions will be unfilled by the time they get to the Open Draft. Our guess is that HB remains a priority, and we think the best fit for the Stallions would be Georgia’s Sony Michel, a well-rounded back who could immediately share the load with the disappointing T. J. Yeldon.

BALTIMORE BLITZ

Team Needs: DT, OT,DE

Territorial Schools: Maryland, Duke, East Carolina, James Madison (2018 Addition)

Top Territorial Talent: The Blitz qualified to add a 4th school to their pool this year and they were shrewd to look at the FCS James Madison squad. JMU has some real talent this year, including safety Raven Green and guard Aaron Stinnie. Add to this group a clear favorite for the Blitz, Maryland LB Jermaine Carter and you may well have their 3 picks right there.

First Round Targets: The Blitz would absolutely be overjoyed if Washington DT Vita Vea were to slip this far down the draft. We don’t see it, and they likely don’t either, so the pick could be Alabama’s Daron Payne or Florida’s Taven Bryan.

DENVER GOLD

Team Needs: LB, FS, DT

Territorial Schools: Colorado, Nebraska, Colorado State

Top Territorial Talent: Denver does not have the usual assortment of giant Cornhusker and Buffalo linemen to choose from this year, but they do have some talent in the pool. We really like CB Isaiah Oliver (CU) and WR Michael Gallup (CSU), but we also know Denver needs a new change-of-pace back, and CU’s Phillip Lindsay could be a good choice there.

First Round Targets: Denver is likely looking at the same DT’s that Baltimore is, so they may try to move up and leapfrog the Blitz. If not, and if there is not a DT on the board that fits the mold they want, we think they could go for Boise State LB Leighton Vander Esch.

CHARLOTTE MONARCHS

Team Needs: DT, HB, G

Territorial Schools: North Carolina, North Carolina State, Wake Forest

Top Territorial Talent: After nabbing the 2017 ROTY in last year’s T-Draft (Trubisky), the Monarchs may be smart to turn to defense this year, especially with a territorial pool headed by NC State DE Bradley Chubb, but also with UNC CB M. J. Stewart, Wake Forest safety Jessie Bates, and NC State DTs B. J. Hill and Justin Jones. Too bad they can only have 3 picks.

First Round Targets: Another team hoping for a DT, but if they don’t move up, then they may wait until Round 2, and instead, add some versatility at HB by looking at Rashaad Penny out of San Diego State. Penny would be a very nice 3rd down option, paired with Peterson in a backfield duo.

SAN DIEGO THUNDER

Team Needs: OT, DT, LB

Territorial Schools: UCLA, San Diego State, Minnesota

Top Territorial Talent: What to do with Josh Rosen? Do the Thunder draft him and give up on Christian Ponder? Do they trade the pick away? Do they pick him as a “block” so that no one else can draft him? It’s 3-dimensional chess and there are a lot of ways to screw it up. Beyond Rosen, the best prospect for the Thunder’s needs is clearly on the O-line, but which Bruin to take? Center Scott Quessenberry or tackle Kolton Miller?

First Round Targets: If McGlinchey is not here, which we think is likely, then the next best OT candidate is UCLA’s Kolton Miller, but San Diego could land him in the T-Draft, so maybe they double up at the position and pick Isaiah Wynn from Georgia instead.

SEATTLE DRAGONS

Team Needs: DE, SS, WR

Territorial Schools: Washington, Washington State, Montana

Top Territorial Talent: The best player in the Dragon pool is clearly UW’s Vita Vea, but the real needs for the Dragons are on offense, so they may bypass Vea (who certainly will be a high NFL pick, making signing much tougher), and could take a look at WR Dante Pettis, TE Will Dissley or even WSU QB Luke Falk as good depth in needed areas.

First Round Targets: If Emmanuel Sanders signs with anyone but Seattle (he is still unsigned), then we think WR moves up the list here and the Dragons go with either D. J. Moore (Maryland), Calvin Ridley (Alabama), or Christian Kirk (A&M), which assumes that they have not already landed UW’s Dante Pettis.

NEW JERSEY GENERALS

Team Needs: DT, HB,CB

Territorial Schools: Syracuse, Rutgers, Boston College

Top Territorial Talent: No potential 1st rounders coming out of Rutgers, Syracuse, or BC, but, as usual, there is depth here and New Jersey needs to shore up several positions. The top graded player is BC linebacker Harold Landry, but the Generals also seem to like CB Isaac Yiedom from the Eagles as well as his teammate, Kamrin Moore, two solid cornerback choices there.

First Round Targets: We expect the DT pool to be quite a bit thinner by this pick, so does New Jersey go cornerback, Alexander or UCF’s Mike Hughes, or do they get someone who can help spell MJD at tailback? We would love to see MJD get some rest, so maybe a player like Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, or USC’s Ronald Jones II.

PHILADELPHIA STARS

Team Needs: DT, CB, WR

Territorial Schools: Penn State, Temple, Louisville

Top Territorial Talent: The Stars still hold all three picks, but we expect they are getting a lot of asks as teams look at Louisville QB Lamar Jackson and Penn State HB Saquon Barkley. Philly could end up trading their way entirely out of the T-Draft since they don’t want or need either. If they only get 1 pick, then that pick should be Louisville CB Jaire Alexander, a 1st day pick in a position of need.

First Round Targets: For the time being we cannot assume that Philadelphia will have a bucket of picks by trading away the rights to Barkley and Jackson, but we all kind of expect that to be the case, and if it is, they could easily trade up to get a shot at DT Vita Vea. If they don’t, then all three positions of need could be on the table. If we go purely on best player available in those 3 positions, we then say it could be Jaire Alexander or Mike Hughes.

ARIZONA WRANGLERS

Team Needs: DE, LB, WR

Territorial Schools: Arizona, Arizona State, New Mexico

Top Territorial Talent: We are not loving Arizona’s T-Draft pool. No first day candidates and no real help for all the losses they suffered in the NFL Transfer debacle. We do like ASU linebacker Christian Sam, but he is a 3rd pick, not a 1st pick. We just don’t see any real 1st picks here.

First Round Targets: Arizona, thanks to retirements, free agency, and NFL “poaching” has to essentially rebuild their entire defense. They would love a shot at DE Bradley Chubb, but might need to trade into the T-Draft with Charlotte to have a shot. If that fails, a good fallback might be to look at Ole Miss edge rusher Breland Speaks.

LAS VEGAS VIPERS

Team Needs: LB, DT, OT

Territorial Schools: Brigham Young, Utah, UNLV, Western Kentucky (2018 Addition)

Top Territorial Talent: Even after adding Western Kentucky as their 4th school, we are barely seeing 5-6 draftable players in the Viper pool. Our only “must pick” is linebacker Fred Warner from BYU. Other than that, honestly, some camp fodder perhaps.

First Round Targets: The Vipers need to get stronger up the middle of the defense. Like almost every other team in the draft, they want some DT help, but their best option in this round may be to look at MLB, and if that is the case, then we would say either Vander Esch (if he is still on the board) or BC’s Harold Landry.

NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS

Team Needs: LB, G, CB

Territorial Schools: Louisiana State, Tulane, Mississippi

Top Territorial Talent: Four solid LSU starters to choose from (CB Donte Jackson, HB Derrius Guice, WR D. J. Chark, and DE Arden Key), but our favorite player in the Breaker’s pool is Ole Miss DE Breeland Sparks.

First Round Targets: Another team looking for LB help, but the Breakers are more looking for the outside or weak side speed guy than the thumper in the middle. In that case they may find their man in Alabama’s Rashaan Evans.

HOUSTON GAMBLERS

Team Needs: FS, DT, CB

Territorial Schools: Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Houston, Rice (2018 Addition)

Top Territorial Talent: Wideout is not a position of need for the Gamblers, but will they really pass on both A&M’s Christian Kirk and Tech’s Keke Coutee? They could, but for what?

First Round Targets: If somehow Derwin James is on the board, not picked by Tampa Bay in the T-Draft, then he would be an ideal fit for Houston. If he is not there, then the next best option is likely Va Tech’s Terrell Edmunds.

MICHIGAN PANTHERS

Team Needs: WR, SS, DE

Territorial Schools: Michigan, Michigan State, Central MI, Western MI (2018 Addition)

Top Territorial Talent: The Panthers can shore up both lines with some good choices in their pool. There is O-line help in Michigan center Mason Cole or MSU center Brian Allen, oh, and, even better is guard Chukwuma Okorafor, which is also fun to say. But if they want to go D-line, there is always DT Maurice Hurst from the Wolverines. Expect several line picks in this group, with “skills” positions the focus of the Panther open draft later on.

First Round Targets: The Wide Receiver pool is a good one this year, so even if Ridley, Moore, and Sutton are off the board, the Panthers could still find talent, talent like Washington’s Dante Pettis, A&M’s Christian Kirk, or U. of Memphis wideout Anthony Miller. Michigan could even trade down just a few spots, get out of the first round, and still find a receiver they really like.

So, there you have it, our draft preview. As always, a lot of “ifs” because we just don’t know which players will be claimed in the Territorial Draft, which will be Open Draft options, and whether teams will go for positions of need, or double down, selecting the best player in the same position in both drafts, territorial and open. Then, we should remind everyone, there is the battle with the NFL over who signs the picks, since pretty much every single player taken in the first 3-4 rounds of the USFL drafts will likely also be taken in the NFL Draft. It makes for a very messy, very strategy-heavy draft process, and makes our jobs, as prognosticators of picks, that much tougher.

So, that is a wrap for our October USFL report. We will be back online in February, following the USFL and NFL Drafts to see just what each roster looks like. Between now and then we expect a lot of trading, a lot of free agents to get signed, a lot of maneuvering, and a pretty wild draft week. We will be back to break it all down in early February, looking back on all the deals and moves, reviewing the draft, and looking ahead to the final stage of the offseason, the second NFL-USFL Transfer Window, when the USFL often gets the better of the deal and teams fill those very needed spots as they enter preseason and even the early weeks of the 2018 campaign. We will be here to cover it all. Until then, enjoy the fall, the holidays, and the NFL, and we will be back before you know it with more USFL coverage.