2017 USFL Conference Championship Recap: Title Games Set Up a Clash of Titans

Looks like we are going to have battle of traditions and legacies in Summer Bowl 2017. The two teams that emerged out of this week’s Conference Title Games have a combined 7 USFL titles between them, and a grand total of 10 Summer Bowl appearances. The two top remaining seeds advanced this week, both in close games, but games that showed that the narrowest of margins can often determine the fortunes of a franchise. Houston won the Eastern Conference Title with a 23-20 victory over divisional rival New Orleans, largely on the strength of a defense that kept the heat on Drew Brees all game. Michigan won the West with a comeback for the ages, down 24-6 midway through the 2rd quarter, the Panthers turned on the afterburners and scored the game’s final19 points to overtake Las Vegas and claim the right to play for the league title in their home stadium.

We will break down how both teams emerged out of the Conference Championships and are now ready to face each other for the first time in a league title game. We will also discuss all the news of the past week, including a reversal on the league’s planned schedule for 2018, a goodbye from one of the league’s most flamboyant characters, and a trade that could open the floodgate for one of the wildest draft week’s in USFL history. It all starts right now, so don’t go anywhere.

About Face: USFL to delay bye week plan until 2020 expansion season

Before we get to the on-field action of the week, a late announcement from the league on Saturday became one of the most discussed stories of the weekend. On Saturday, league officials announced that they were putting on hold the plan to add bye weeks to the USFL schedule, to add a 17th week and give each team a week of rest during the season. It seems to be a combination of factors that forced the league to reverse course on the plan. In addition to ongoing opposition from a significant number of teams, and concerns about scheduling, particularly towards the end of the year, which would have seen the postseason extend into August, the other major factor was apparently the inability of the league’s four network partners to agree on a plan to split the schedule during the various bye weeks.

The USFL plan was to have all teams hold their bye either in weeks 8, 9, or 10, creating three weeks in the middle of the season which would have between 8-11 games rather than the usual 14. It seems that NBC was unwilling to trade their two weekly games for 16 weeks for a plan that would have 4 games spread out over the 3 bye weeks. Likewise ESPN balked at a similar arrangement, while both ABC and FOX were squabbling about how to divide up the Saturday and Sunday afternoon games if each week during the bye period would have varying numbers of games. The two networks, which typically divide up 10 of the14 games each week were apparently at an impasse about how to work with the spread out schedule of the midseason, and at least one, though no one has revealed which, was very much against the USFL moving the start of the season up a week, citing the NCAA basketball tournament as a major impediment to broadcasting a full Saturday-Sunday schedule earlier in March.

And so, the decision was made, the USFL would hold off on any talk of mid-year byes as they studied the options more thoroughly, likely not reintroducing the idea until the league expands to 30 teams in 2020. Of course, by then the league will also be coming to the end of their current broadcast contracts with all 4 networks, and we can expect a wild frenzy with a lot of new players in the marketplace right now. The league, even with expansion, is likely to face some serious challenges to the status quo and to the current balance of games between FOX (5 per week), ABC (5 per week), ESPN (2 per week) and NBC (2 per week). In the short run it means that the 2018 schedule will look a lot like the 2017 one, and in the long run, who knows what the scheduling or broadcasting of USFL games will look like when the league returns to San Antonio and adds a 30th city in 2020. But, enough business talk. Let’s get to the games that gave us our Summer Bowl 2017 Matchup.

As I expect you may hae figured out, the actual issue is Draft Day Sports: PF2021 won't allow me to add bye weeks into a 28-team league. I thought it would, tested it and it seemed fine, but when I tried it with the USFL for 2018 it kept cutting off Week 17 and telling me that teams only had 15 games. It looks like with 30 teams it is allowed, so that is what we will do.

NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS 20  HOUSTON GAMBLERS 23

We start in Houston, where the Gamblers were facing their division rival, New Orleans, for the third time this year. The Gamblers had won both of the regular season matchups and came into this game confident they could make it 3 of 3. New Orleans, having already defeated two division winners, Charlotte and Philadelphia, were not intimidated by the Gamblers and came into the game with every intention of returning to the Summer Bowl for the second time in 3 years, after their first league title in 2015.

The game got off to a fast start with New Orleans taking the opening kickoff and quickly getting into Houston territory, but on a 3rd and 5, Houston blitzed SS Kenny Vaccaro, in at the nickel position, and the Breakers line did not pick it up. Drew Brees tried to pivot out of the way of the charging safety, but that only caused the sack to be 4 yards further back from the line of scrimmage. The Breakers’ drive was over and kicker Caleb Sturgis came out to attempt a 48-yarder. When Sturgis’s kick hooked left, the Gamblers took over on the 31-yard line.

Houston wasted no time testing the Breaker defense either. No jabs and testing the line, they too went for some big plays right away. They found one pretty quickly too, turning a 2nd and 6 into a 35-yard dagger to JuJu Smith-Schuster that put the ball into the Breaker red zone. Four plays later and McCoy found Mike Evans for the first score of the game on a classic rub route, with Evans taking an inside cut and snagging the high throw from McCoy. Houston was up 7-0, but McCoy still looked a bit unsure on his braced knee.

The Breakers would do little on their next drive, and as the first quarter turned into the second, Houston found themselves with the ball once again. They mixed inside runs to Hyde with short throws to Evans, Vernon Davis and Dante Rosario to again move the ball effectively against New Orleans’s defense. A nice throw from McCoy to Evans forced CB Patrick Peterson to throw his body into Evans to avoid a touchdown. The defensive pass interference call was a pretty easy decision for the refs, and from the 1-yardline, Carlos Hyde did the rest, plunging over the line from the 1 to double Houston’s advantage.

But the Breakers were not ready to give up down 14-0, they went to their best option on their next possession, a deep ball to Jordy Nelson, and the play produced exactly what they wanted. Nelson made an effective fake on an out route, then took the route up the sideline, with Leodis McKelvin now a clear 2-3 steps behind the speedy Nelson. Brees laid the ball out over the top and Nelson ran under it, never changing pace as he snagged it out of the air and down the sideline for a 43-yard touchdown that kept New Orleans right in the game.

Houston would respond to the stunning play, taking a patient tack on their next drive. Carlos Hyde, who would run for 110 on the day, carried the ball 7 times on the drive, but once again when the Gamblers got into the red zone, Hyde was used as a decoy, first on a swing pass out to the fullback, and then on the touchdown toss, another short route to Mike Evans, this time a fade from the 3 that utilized Evans’s height advantage over the corner to good effect.

New Orleans went into the half down 14 once again but emerged with a plan. Drew Brees had been trying to get the ball down the field and had suffered 5 sacks because of it in the first half. Yes, they had hit on one play to Nelson, but it was proving too risky against the aggressive Houston blitzing scheme. They would start by putting pressure on Colt McCoy, using their own blitz, and then on offense they would dink and dunk to avoid putting Brees into a defensive posture. Both halftime adjustments proved effective early. Houston started with the ball, and on the first third down of their drive, New Orleans brought pressure right up the middle. McCoy tried to roll out of it, but LB Kwan Alexander was there. McCoy tried to make a desperation throw to the sideline, but the ball fluttered on him and FS Clyde Adams was in position to pick it off.

From there, now with the ball on the Houston 41, New Orleans used short passes, along with a couple of nice runs from David Wilson to get the ball down to the 9. On first and goal from there, New Orleans put Nelson in motion, faked the end around and gave the ball to Wilson once more. The back found a huge hole in the center of the line, sidestepped the initial tackle and slipped into the endzone before the safety could get his knee down. The Breakers had pulled back to a 7-point deficit.

The Breakers’ 2nd half adjustments seemed to be doing exactly what Coach Lathon had hoped. On Houston’s next possession, McCoy again felt pressure on third down. This time the pass was incomplete, but once again, Houston’s offense had sputtered and New Orleans would again get the ball back in good field position. Brees found Keny Britt with a nice throw, turning a 7-yard catch into a 29-yard play, but when they got down into Houston territory the drive fizzled and the team settled for a Caleb Sturgis field goal. The third quarter ended with Houston holding a precarious 21-17 lead.

The fourth quarter saw Houston stifle New Orleans with back-to-back sacks on their first drive, but the Gamblers were struggling to make first downs. Carlos Hyde’s per carry average was dropping as New Orleans reined him in, and Colt McCoy’s mobility was clearly becoming an issue. After another short drive, McCoy was again pressured and it was clear he could not run to safety. For the second time in the game, he forced a throw, and for the second time New Orleans came up with it, this time the throw for Evans was short and Patrick Peterson was there to snag it off the carpet. The Breakers were again in position to use a short field to their advantage.

Houston’s defense stepped up when pressed, sacking Drew Brees for the 8th time in the game, and once again the Breakers had to settle for 3, this time a 25-yarder from the Houston 8-yardline. The chip shot was nice, but when New Orleans was so close, many wondered why they did not go for the touchdown on 4th and goal. That will be a question folks will be asking for a long time in New Orleans, because the 21-20 score would be as close as New Orleans would get in the game.

After Houston managed to move the ball on their next drive, they shifted the field a bit, pinning New Orleans back to their own 7 on a nice punt from David Sepulveda. A false start by the Breakers made it an even tougher 1st and 13 from the three-and-a-half yard line. A run by Fournette lost almost 2 yards, now with both the Houston defense and the crowd fully engaged in making life tough for the Breakers. On 2nd down, now from just outside the 2, New Orleans tried to use play action. Houston was not fooled, and their run blitz quickly turned into a pursuit of Brees. DE John Hughes got to him first, but got help from DT Albert Haynesworth as they brought Brees down for a safety.

New Orleans would touch the ball only one more time in the final minutes of the game. They got the ball back with 37 seconds to play, frittered away too much time trying to cross midfield and had to settle for a Hail Mary attempt in the final seconds. The pass did not connect, and Houston collectively let out a sigh of relief. They had not played well in the second half, at least not on offense, and nearly gave up a 14-point lead, but in the end they held on and had punched their ticket to the Summer Bowl, their first since their 2010 league title.

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LAS VEGAS VIPERS 24  MICHIGAN PANTHERS 27

A very different game took place later that day in Detroit. In a game defined by a single play, momentum became the deciding factor as Michigan fought back from a 24-6 deficit in the final 20 minutes of gametime. Las Vegas had played an outstanding game for 2.5 quarters, but a costly pick led to a shift in fortunes and the Panthers took advantage of that swing to mount their comeback.

The game between the Central Division Champion and the upstart 5th seed Vipers began with a lot of cautious testing. The two had met back in Week 2, a Michigan blow-out, but this game had a lot more riding on it and both teams wanted to use the first quarter to test out their options. It would be 3 drives before either team got past their own 40, as Las Vegas, on their second possession of the game connected on some nice plays, including a nice 8 yard toss from Manning to Baldwin on 3rd and 6 to move the ball inside the Michigan 40. But, the drive did not reach paydirt and Brett Maher was called on to kick from the Panther 15, giving Las Vegas an early 3-0 lead on the 32-yard kick.

Michigan would respond with a drive of their own. With LeVeon Bell still being bottled up by the Las Vegas defense, often with 8 or 9 players close to the line, the Panthers relied on their passing game. Kirk Cousins completed a nice 14-yarder to Cody Latimer, then found Bell for 13 yards on a screen, and then got a defensive holding call on a 2nd and 4 to gain another first down. They soon found themselves a the Viper 9 yard line, and a first down fake to Bell did the trick to free up Latimer in the enzone. Cousins found him along the back line and Michigan took the lead. But Las Vegas was not feeling intimidated. They were ready to strike. The missed PAT from Michael Beam had made it only a 6-3 lead, but Las Vegas wanted more.

The Vipers would win on both sides of the ball in the 2nd quarter, the defense holding Michigan to only 3 first downs in the quarter and picking off Kirk Cousins midway through the period to set up the Viper’s first of 3 consecutive touchdowns. Cousins had thrown the ball late and Las Vegas linebacker Nate Irving had made up ground on TE Rob Housler, wrenching the ball out of his hands and setting the Vipers up at the Michigan 33. Four plays later, on 1st and 10 from the 21, Eli Manning connected on the first of 3 touchdowns, a nice corner route to Denarius Moore to give Las Vegas a 10-6 lead.

The game would go to the half with that 10-6 advantage for Las Vegas. They would add to it in the 3rd. Las Vegas got the ball first and in only 6 plays they put another 7 on the board. The key play was a 44-yard connection between Manning and Doug Baldwin, a play that probably should have been a sack, but Manning somehow managed to worm out of the tackle and find Baldwin deep. 2 plays later he connected with Dustin Keller and the Vipers were up 17-6 in front of a stunned Panther crowd.

Only 3 minutes later they would add another 7. Michigan had opted to throw the ball on all three plays of their drive, with two of the three falling incomplete, including the 3rd and 5 throw needed to get another set of downs. A mediocre punt gave Las Vegas the ball at their own 42, and they again struck quickly. Manning hit Denarius Moore for 32 yards on a play that got Michigan Coach Sean McDermott to throw his headset to the turf. Three plays later Manning had his third TD toss, this time to Jeremy Hill, his only catch of the game.

Down 24-6 with 9:09 left in the third, the Panthers needed a spark, and it would be their defense that would get it. After another short drive, Michigan had again punted to Las Vegas, giving the Vipers the ball on their own 12. The Panthers stuffed Hill after 2 yards, bringing up a 2nd and 8 on the 14. Manning had to be throwing, and the Panthers would bring pressure. As they figured, Manning took the snap, faked to Hill and started his drop. Panther DE Michael Bennett had ignored the fake and was right there when Manning tried to set up. He swatted at the QB’s arm, caught it just before Manning stated his throwing motion, and the ball sputtered backwards. With most of the two lines still engaged, Bennett was able to roll onto the ball, roll to his feet and lunge into the endzone.

It was a play that brought the entire stadium to their feet. In one bold play, Bennett had brought Michigan back into the game, both emotionally and on the scoreboard. Now down 24-13, the Panthers were a new team, and Las Vegas seemed to sense it. The Vipers would have a badly timed 3-and-out on their next drive and Michigan would respond with a 64-yard drive that finished up the 3rd quarter with a Mike Hart 3-yard touchdown run. They went for 2, failed, but the tone was still set, and the Panthers were now down only 24-19 with a whole quarter to play.

The sudden turn of the tide seemed to deflate the Vipers, who had played so well for nearly 3 quarters. Their next drive lasted only 5 plays before they again punted the ball away. Michigan was unable to keep their offensive production going, and after a short drive, they too punted the ball away. The next Viper drive would be a bit more successful, as they ate up over 5 minutes and got into scoring range, well, the fringe of scoring range at least. When a holding call turned a 3rd and 2 into a 3rd and 12, Manning was forced to try to fit a ball into Moore, but the play was disrupted by Michigan safety Troy Petty, forcing New Orleans to go for a 51-yard kick. The ball did not stay on target and Michigan took over with just over 7 minutes to play, down only 5.

Kirk Cousins led the final Panther drive, though he did get help from LeVeon Bell, who was finally seeing some space as the Viper D tired. Bell hit the hole quickly on a 2nd and 5 and turned a short gain into a 17-yard scamper that again got the Panther faithful up to their feet. Cousins would connect with Jerrel Jernigan for another first down and soon Michigan was knocking on the door. With the ball just outside the 10-yard line, Michigan used a bit of trickery, lining up Bell under center with Cousins out wide. They brought Cousins in motion, snapped the ball to Bell, who pitched it to his QB. Cousins turned to the opposite side of the field and there was Latimer racing across the field on the flattest corner route we have seen in a while. Cousins put the ball into the endzone and Latimer came down with it, his cover man caught up in the mass of bodies in the center of the field. The Panthers went for 2 and Bell lunged over the pylon to convert the try. Michigan was up 27-24 with just over 4 minutes left to play.

The Panther D would do the rest. On the first Viper possession, LB Odell Thurman tipped a Manning pass, almost producing another takeaway. The play was good enough to force a Breaker punt. Michigan then burned some clock before returning the ball to Manning with only 47 seconds. But, needing only 3 points, the Vipers were still in this one.

Well, they were in it until an aggressive shift by the Panther D-line led to a false start, producing a 1st and 15. That became 2nd and 15 on a missed pass to Nelson, then a draw produced only 3 yards, leaving Las Vegas with a tough 3rd and 12 and time ticking away. Houston blitzed on 3rd down, with Bennett this time getting close, but not quite getting to Manning. It was good enough to force a bad pass and the Vipers were down to 4th and 12 with only 23 seconds left. The 4th down toss to Tyler Eiffert gained 9 yards, but three Panthers were there to end his run before he could reach for the first down. Michigan had the ball in Viper territory and needed only a kneel down to set up a Summer Bowl return. They would be facing Houston in their own stadium, a rare chance to win a league title on familiar ground.

Houston’s Gamble Pays Off with 9 Sacks of Brees

The Gamblers knew what the mission was this week, disrupt Drew Brees. They had watched how Brees decimated the Monarchs’ and Stars’ defenses, throwing for 6 touchdowns and no picks over the past two weeks and taking over both games. They understood that the key to defeating the Breakers was to force Brees out of rhythm and out of his comfort zone. And so, Coach Phillips decided to take a risk. The Gamblers would blitz early and blitz often. They would send everyone from safety Kenny Vaccaro to any or all three of their linebackers, anticipating that Albert Haynesworth and John Jenkins would occupy the linemen, and that with Applewhite and Fowler on the outside, they could create gaps for the blitzers to reach home.

The plan was a good one. Yes, it allowed Brees to throw for 315 yards, with several big plays, but it also disrupted a lot of drives. Pressure, including 9 sacks of the New Orleans QB, turned potential touchdown drives into field goal attempts, and ended several drives before they got dangerous. And while Brees did top 300 yards passing, he threw for only 1 touchdown in a game where his ability to make plays under duress was the key to the Breakers’ attempt to come back from a 21-7 deficit. It was close, but Houston managed to blitz Brees into a safety in the 4th quarter, and several other big defensive stops, enough to hold on and earn a trip to the Summer Bowl.

 

How Houston’s Draft Success Has them Headed to Summer Bowl 2017

If you are looking for the reason that Coach Phillips’s team is once again so successful, and why they have become a power in the Southern Division and Eastern Conference, you may actually have to look a little higher on the food chain. Yes, Coach Phillips has molded the team into a dynamic and dangerous squad, but we should also look to the front office, where GM Nick Caserio has built this team through the draft. Houston’s roster is a prime example, perhaps the example, of the value of drafting and signing talent that builds year after year. Three of the past four years the Gamblers have found multiple starters in the draft, and 3 of the past 4 years they have earned a draft grade of A or A+.

Just take a look at the Houston roster and its All-USFL performers and you can see just how successful the Gamblers have been when it comes to finding talent through the league’s two drafts, the territorial draft (mostly of Texas schools for this club) and the Open Draft. In 2014 the Gamblers drafted and signed WR Mike Evans and CB Malcolm Butler in the T-Draft and then added Ohio State HB Carlos Hyde in the open draft. That year Hyde and Evans were both finalists for Rookie of the Year, with Hyde winning the honor. The next draft, they brought in center Shaq Mason, LB Ramik Wilson, and DE Dante Fowler, with Wilson winning the Sporting News and ESPN: The Magazine designation (unofficial) of Defensive Rookie of the Year. And this past January Houston added WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, SS Budda Baker, and kicker Younghoe Koo, with, again, two players among the five finalists for Rookie of the Year. Even in their supposed off-year, 2016, they added solid contributors like CB Brandon Williams, backup QB Jeff Driskel, and LB Kamalei Correa. Even in his first year in the position, rising up from scouting, Caserio brought in a solid draft, with 2013 adding safety Kenny Vaccaro, DT John Jenkins, and guard Ryan Seymour to the roster.

With success like this Caserio has risen from a scouting position to now being considered the best young GM in the game, perhaps the best GM in the game. The results are there, countless success stories, not only drafted but signed and delivered. While other teams are overspending trying to attract mid-career free agents or NFL imports, the Gamblers built this club from the ground up, using the draft better than any other team, retaining their talent every year, and improving their roster. Yes, Wade Phillips is one of the league’s best head coaches, no denial there, but if we want to understand the root causes for Houston becoming the team they are today, we need to look at the draft and the success of their player personnel team, because that is where the building blocks of success are put into place.

Michigan's Unheralded Heroes Spark Summer Bowl Run

Michigan’s victory this week owes a lot to some players who just don’t get the national attention or the spotlight they deserve. While LeVeon Bell, admittedly, has a way to suck up all the air in the room, and while his talent is certainly a major factor for this Michigan squad, he is not a one-man show, and this week’s win over Las Vegas proved it.

Look at the stat line of the Panthers’ 27-24 comeback victory over the Vipers and what you see is that, yes, Bell played his part, rushing for 51 yards and catching 3 passes for another 24. Kirck Cousins also had a solid game, completing 19 of 23 passes and throwing for 2 touchdowns, but there are three other players who came up huge in this game and have been playing some of their best football down the stretch for the Panthers. It is about time they got recognition as well.

Wide Receiver Cody Latimer has been a quiet star for the Panthers all season. After putting up his first career 1,000-yard season last year, he stepped it up once again this year, with a season that had him in the running for All-USFL honors (he lost out to Marques Colston by only 3 votes). Latimer had 91 receptions for 1,332 yards and 8 Panther touchdowns, and yet he is hardly a household name even among USFL fans. In this week’s title game, Latimer was certainly seen as a threat by the Vipers, who often double covered the speedy receiver. The former Indiana Hoosier was held to only 3 catches, but, when he was needed he was there, with two of those receptions going for 7 points, including the 11-yard catch in the 4th quarter that got Michigan the win.

If Latimer is only marginally known by casual USFL fans, TE Rob Housler is a complete unknown. The 6th year receiver out of Florida Atlantic has been a steady presence in the Michigan offense since his second season, when he amassed 77 receptions. His numbers this year were actually down from recent norms, with 62 catches and 311 yards, but on this Sunday, he was a prime figure in the Michigan attack. With Las Vegas trying to take away the outside receviers, and the linebackers keying on LeVeon Bell, Housler was an available and useful weapon for Kirk Cousins. He led all receivers with 5 catches and his 63 yards included 3 third down conversions.

Finally, there is Kenny Phillips. The Michigan free safety was among the league leaders with 7 picks this year, going along with 51 tackles and 13 passes defended. Often used to help double cover a team’s 2nd receiver, while Dre Kirkpatrick takes on the primary target, Phillips’s role was a bit different this week, with Kirkpatrick unable to play. Phillips supported CB Keivarae Russell whenever Michigan used man coverage, and took the middle of the field in zone. The result? Two key pass defenses and a pick of Eli Manning that proved essential to the Panther victory. Phillips was recognized for his outstanding season this year, earning All-USFL honors along with Panther LB Sean Porter, QB Kirk Cousins, and HB LeVeon Bell.

Manning Says He Will Be Back

For worried Viper fans, concerned that their run with Eli Manning to the Western Conference Championship would mark the end of a 1-year swan song for the 12-year veteran, good news. On Tuesday, when met by reporters at an event in LA, Manning stated unequivocably that he plans to be back with the Vipers for another go in 2018. Appearing with his brother, Peyton, Eli told reporters that he had an amazing experience with the Vipers, that while he needs time to recover from a second straight season of 20 games or more (with pre-season and post-season, Manning played in 21 games in 2016 and 20 in 2017), but that he will be there for mid-winter minicamps and is looking forward to getting even farther with the Vipers in 2018.

Manning has been one of several USFL quarterbacks whose future in 2018 has been in question. Along with Joey Harrington (who has announced his retirement), Drew Brees, and David Garrard, the rumor mill has been active in pushing the idea that Manning might walk away from football after the season. So far, Manning, who recently turned 36, is the first of the 4 to clearly state he will be back. Harrington has already announced that he is retiring, while the verdict is still out for 38-year-old Drew Brees or 35-year-old David Garrard.

While overall we would say that the Summer Bowl this year will see both teams at near full strength, it is important to note that both teams will be without a few quality players. For Michigan both SS Jabril Peppers (OUT) and CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Doubtful) could miss the title game. Houston, in addition to QB Landry Jones and G Ryan Seymour (both on IR), will likely be without halfback Kiero Small (Questionable) and possibly DT John Jenkins (Probable).

Ochocinco Says Adios

The retirement announcements continue across the USFL, and this week one of the league’s biggest personalities was next up to announce he would be hanging up his cleats. San Diego wideout Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson made the announcement on Monday via Twitter, stating “I love football, I love being “Ochocinco” but the time has come to move on.”  That was quickly followed by a press release from his agent and a few more tweets, thanking his teammates, his quarterbacks and his fans.

The 16-year veteran of the Glory, Cannons, and Thunder was a huge star in the league, ever since his first season in Ohio. When he racked up 1,355 yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie on one of the league’s greatest dynasty teams, the Glory of the early 2000’s. Johnson was there for the 2002 unbeaten season and the repeat title in 2003, but left for Boston in 2004 to become the clear number one receiver, rather than sharing the spotlight with Joey Galloway in Columbus.

For Johnson, who would legally change his name to Chad Ochocinco for a 7-year span, attention was as precious as financial compensation, though the two were certainly walking side by side. Whether it was pulling a cellphone out of his sock after a touchdown, or making outlandish statements in post-game interviews, Johnson never shied away from the spotlight.

The receiver also never shied away from his role as a top target for his quarterbacks, racking up an impressive 21,047 yards over his career, an average of over 1,300 per season for 16 seasons. He also added 157 touchdowns among his 1,128 receptions. His career totals put him at 2nd place (ironically behind his old teammate Joey Galloway) in yardage and third in touchdowns among all-time USFL receivers.

While “85” was certainly the loudest, brashest, and most likely future HOF player to depart the league this week, he was not the only one. Others announcing their retirement plans included Seattle halfback Joseph Addai, who played 7 USFL seasons with the Stallions and Dragons after coming over from the NFL Colts. Joining Addai was New Orleans edge rusher C. J. Mosely, who announced only hours after the loss in Houston, and San Diego TE Kevin Everett. Baltimore received word from the agent of DT Ellis Wyms, that he would be submitting the retirement papers to the league, and several other players, including Tampa Bay CB Philip Buchanon, Baltimore WR Lance Moore, Memphis DT Marcus Tubbs, and Birmingham TE Bo Scaife were announced as having filed for retirement by their team’s PR departments.

Chicago In the QB Hunt with Big Draft Trade

A huge announcement out of LA and Chicago as the Express and Machine announce a trade that fires the first salvo in what we expect to be a wild offseason of moves and deals related to the incoming class of draft-eligible quarterbacks. As expected, the LA Express, not really in the hunt for a young QB to develop, have opted to make a deal to trade away their first pick in this year’s Territorial Draft, and, as we all anticipated, that pick will go to a team in the hunt for a quarterback, the Chicago Machine.

Chicago is sending two picks in the Open Draft to the Express in exchange for the chance to negotiate with USC quarterback Sam Darnold. The Express will get Chicago’s pick in the 1st and in the 3rd rounds this year, sending Chicago their first pick in both the T-Draft and the Open Draft. Essentially, what this gives LA is the ability to move up from the 14th pick to the 7th in the Open Draft’s first round, while also picking up a second selection early in the 3rd. Chicago drops to the middle of the first round in the Open Draft, but the real prize is the exclusive rights to select one player from either USC, Hawaii, or Fresno State. And while many teams would love to see them take a flier on a Samoan D-lineman from the Rainbow Warriors, it seems pretty clear who the target of Chicago’s attention is. 

Could SoCal's Golden Boy be trading in the beach for a lake house?

The Machine spent most of the year with veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm of the offense. The results were, let’s say not ideal. In 13 starts, Fitzpatrick threw for a respectable 2,725 yards and had a solid completion rate of 68.8%, but with only 8 touchdowns and 10 picks, and a record of 4-9, it was clear that Chicago was going to look for another option. Second year QB Trevor Siemian got the final three starts of the season, including wins over St. Louis and a Michigan squad that played quite a few backups, but Siemian’s performances (with 2 TDs to 4 picks and a 57.6 completion rate) were not the kind of dynamic showcase that the low draft pick needed to secure the starting job. So, Chicago now becomes the first team to officially take a stab at one of the draft’s elite QB prospects. They will almost certainly have stiff competition from the NFL, where Darnold is projected to be a Top 10 pick, so they had better start wooing the young USC star now, well, as much as they are allowed during the NCAA season, which is not much.

The Draft's Top Talents and Where They Could be Heading

With USC’s Sam Darnold now almost certainly being taken off the Draft Board by Chicago in January’s T-Draft, we wonder where the other top prospects in the draft might be heading. For this exercise in hypotheticals, we are going to limit the QB picks to the remaining 4 almost-certain 1st round talents, and we will add in the two highest-rated non-quarterbacks, Penn State tailback Saquon Barkley and NC State Defensive End Bradley Chubb.

QB Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)

Like Darnold, Mayfield is a topflight QB prospect whose USFL rights are held by a team who is really not looking to spend big to bring him in. The Oklahoma Outlaws hold his T-Draft rights, but they are not going to move on from Joe Flacco, not this year, so we expect them to do as LA did and move the rights to another team in trade for some draft capital. But which team?

We see two likely contenders here, both of whom would seem good fits for a QB with the kind of gunslinger mentality and out-of-the-pocket skills that Mayfield possesses. Both of our top contenders are in the SE Division and the state of Florida. We see the Bandits and Bulls being at the front of the line when it comes to interest in Mayfield. Both have draft capital, but with Tampa Bay holding a Top 5 pick (they hold the 4th pick in each round) we think the advantage goes to the Bandits. So, we are penciling in Mayfield as a Bandit acquisition.

QB Josh Rosen (UCLA)

This one is a bit trickier. There are some in San Diego circles who are saying the Thunder may be interested in drafting the UCLA quarterback and possibly trading NFL import Christian Ponder, thus paving the way for Rosen to spend time behind Joe Webb before taking over, much as Colt McCoy did with Matt Hasselbeck. There are others who say that San Diego will do as LA and Oklahoma likely will (as LA already has) and will seek to trade the rights to select Rosen. So where could he end up? Honestly, of the options we see, the best possible fit for Rosen may well be to stay in the hands of the Thunder, spend a year or two developing in his game, and then get the starting gig in either 2019 or 2020.

HB Saquon Barkley (Penn State)

Before we get to the next 2 QBs, both of whom are viewed as more-likely mid-round NFL picks, let’s jump to halfback Saquon Barkley from the Nittany Lions. The unquestioned best back in the draft, a solid 0.6 rating above 2nd candidate Rashaad Penny of SDSU, Barkley, like many of the QBs in this year’s draft, has his territorial school rights held by a team that is just not in the market. The Stars are more than happy with what they have gotten out of their 2016 draft pick, Derrick Henry, so they are more than likely going to be fishing for a trade out of the first T-Draft round and into some Open Draft selections. Who might they trade with? That is a pretty open field, with lots of teams needing a true bell cow back on their roster. Where do we think the best scenario is, perhaps not the most likely, but the best fit for Barkley? How about Seattle? The Dragons seem to be putting something together. They have a solid defense, and their young QB, Jacoby Brissett, had a better-than-expected sophomore campaign. With Joseph Addai retiring this week, we could certainly see the Dragons making a play to obtain Barkley, and we think it would be a pretty nice fit for the Penn State back.

QB Josh Allen (Wyoming)

Back to the QB position and now we get to the only true free agent among the top draft prospects. Allen, at Wyoming, is not under any team’s territorial rights, so we know he is headed to the Open Draft. When we look at the current draft order, we see several possible landing spots among the teams with early picks. Allen could go first overall, assuming none of the other top prospects slip into the Open Draft, which would mean he heads to St. Louis. But that may not be the top need for the defensively woeful Skyhawks, who we think go for the best defender in the draft.

If Seattle passes, that places Allen at the number 2 spot, which is Portland. Maybe, I guess we could see it, but only if they can find a way to ship off Marcus Mariota, a high-profile, low production top draft pick from only 2 years ago. No, we don’t think that will happen, which means Allen slips to pick 3, which is where we are placing him. The Washington Federals hold that pick. David Garrard is an unknown, but even if he does return for 2018, that means Allen has a year to work on some development, particularly his full-field reads and his accuracy. That sounds like a win-win to us.

DE Bradley Chubb (NC State)

Here is our choice for the top overall pick in the Open Draft. But, first things first. Does Chubb get out of the T-Draft without being selected. Charlotte owns the rights to any NC State players. They have a very talented left end in Chandler Jones, who had 17 sacks this season and is under contract for another 2 years. Does Charlotte spend big on a 2nd DE to create a duo akin to the one Orlando has in Campbell and Moats? They could, they really could. But, if they don’t, will someone swoop in and make them a deal to try to land the draft rights to Chubb? Again, yes, that is very possible. But we have a year in which at least 10-12 teams are worried about cap space, and a year in which many are looking at what Houston has done in their drafts (using their own T-Draft picks and not swapping out of the Open Draft), and the imitation wave may mean that Charlotte gets few takers. We think that there is a good chance that Chubb makes it to the Open Draft, and if so, then St. Louis will take him first overall.

QB Lamar Jackson (Louisville)

Our final prospect, and one of the most controversial ones. Jackson has amazing physical gifts, but is he a true pro QB? Will a team be open to adapting their offense to a more read & run style than a progression-following QB? There are a few, and one of them is a team we already mentioned as being QB needy. The Jacksonville Bulls basically already have a Jackson-ready offense in the one they adapted to Robert Griffin. If they miss out on Mayfield, as we are predicting, they could quickly pivot to Jackson. It would require a deal with Philadelphia, who has Louisville among its protected schools, but that seems viable. So, we think the Bulls miss on Mayfield but recover and take a shot on Jackson. But what happens to RG3 in this scenario?

Are Flacco and Colston on the Trading Block in OKC?

An odd situation seems to be brewing in Oklahoma City. We are hearing a lot of rumors that the Outlaws are not only open to trade offers, but are actively pitching the idea of trading two of their most high-profile players. If the rumors are true, then both QB Joe Flacco and WR Marques Colston could potentially be on the trading block for the right price. What could be inspiring such a radical step for a team entering their second year in a new city and building on the enthusiastic reception in their first year? There are three very different rationales that are being thrown around among pundits and fans alike.

The first has to do with Oklahoma’ cap situation. They are not among the tightest cap situations in the league, not this year, but if they are looking ahead to 2019 they do have something of a ticking timebomb on their hands. They have quite a few high-cost contracts that were backloaded when they were made, and will come due in 2019, including both Flacco and Colston, but also HB Marshawn Lynch, LB Chad Greenway and the newly-extended deal for DT Luis Castillo. If they do not do something this year, they could well be in a real bind come the 2018-2019 offseason. So, there is a financial element to it. 

Is Mayfield the key to the Outlaws' offseason?

The second element is the presence of two strong draft candidates in the Outlaw’s Territorial Draft options, with most considering OU quarterback Baker Mayfield a Top 10 talent while down the road in Stillwater, OK State’s Mason Rudolph is also views as a QB with a lot of upside potential. The fact that the Outlaws could potentially land a top tier future franchise option on a lower cost rookie contract, thus freeing up more funds for other positions makes sense on the one hand, but it means trading away a QB who has put up huge numbers, been named a league MVP, and is a steady leader on the team. This theory also does nothing to explain why Colston would also be potential trade fodder.

The third possible motivation is perhaps the most bizarre, but also very likely is a factor for the club’s management. If you recall, when the sale of the Outlaws to the OKC Football Group was approved, there were several concessions made to former Outlaw owner Red McComb and to the city of San Antonio. These included guaranteed expansion to San Antonio, retention of the team colors for use by a San Antonio expansion club, and, the most relevant here, the ability for San Antonio to claim up to 10 players from the Oklahoma roster in something of an exclusive expansion draft even before the new club and whichever team takes the 30th league spot would conduct their standard expansion draft. The agreement allows the new San Antonio club to select from any players who were with the team when they played in Texas. That would include players like Castillo, Faulk, Greenway, and both Flacco and Colston.

In a sense, the agreement made by the Outlaws and the San Antonio ownership group motivates the Outlaws to get value now for any player who moved over from Texas to Oklahoma, rather than holding on to veterans only to have them snatched up by the new expansion team. While losing QB Joe Flacco and/or WR Marques Colston now would be a major blow to the team, having them leave by trade means that the club could acquire talent, draft picks, or both, and that is more than they would get in 2020, when the league has planned for expansion.

Could Oklahoma be playing a long game by trying to trade away not only some of their most cap-compressing players but also the players who they could very well lose in 2 more years? If that is the case, it is either pure genius or a major overreaction. But, if we put the three theories together, moving Joe Flacco, for example, helps solve the cap situation for 2019, assures the Outlaws of some pretty solid compensation right now, and makes room for them to try to land a QB with major Oklahoma connections. That last piece of the puzzle seems essential if the Outlaws are going to maintain the enthusiasm in the state. Trading Flacco away and bringing in a QB from Miami, USC, or Penn State would be a PR disaster, but signing the Sooner QB as their new franchise player. That could actually keep enthusiasm high. Truly a fascinating theory, and as rumors go, one of the juiciest we have seen in a while.

AWARD DINNER HAS FEW SURPRISES

The 2017 USFL Awards Gala was pretty much as uneventful as these post-season award ceremonies get. Unlike the past few years, when several categories of award had multiple frontrunners and the votes for the winners were very close, the 2017 ceremony was largely a confirmation of already identified favorites and expected results.

The night began with the announcement of the All-USFL team for 2017, and while there were a few potential players upset about being snubbed, the roster of the league’s All-season team was solid and held few surprises. Here is the quick breakdown of the honored players:

QB: David Carr (ARZ), Matt Gutierrez (PHI), Kirk Cousins (MGN)

HB: Doug Martin (POR), LeVeon Bell (MGN), Maurice Jones-Drew (NJ)

FB: LeRon McClain (ARZ)

TE: Jimmie Graham (ARZ), Vernon Davis (HOU)

WR: Jordy Nelson (NOR), Adam Thielen (PIT), Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ)

     Brian Hartline (BAL), Marques Colston (OKL)

OT: Brandon Scherff (ARZ), Brian Blaga (STL), Marcus Gilbert (NOR)

OG: Chase Warmack (ARZ), Jon Asamoah (HOU), Vincent DuCasse (NOR)

C: A. Q. Shipley (SEA), Shaq Mason (HOU)

DE: Calais Campbell (ORL), Von Miller (DEN), Arthur Moats (ORL)

DT: Aaron Donald (PIT), Ndamukong Suh (DEN), Albert Haynesworth (HOU)

LB: Brian Orakpo (TBY), James Laurinaitis (OHI), Kyle Morrison (PHI)

    Sean Porter (MGN), Manti Te’o (CHI), Sean Lee (JAX)

CB: Joe Haden (ARZ), Xavien Howard (SEA), Dominque Rogers-Cromartie (JAX)

      Pacman Jones (OKL)

SS: Brian Taylor (NOR), Budda Baker (HOU)

FS: Kenny Phillips (MGN), David Bruton (JAX)

K: Robbie Gould (CHI)

P: Matt Bosher (BIR)

So, who might feel snubbed this year? We expect that QB Cam Newton feels he is a better talent than Gutierrez or Cousins, but the numbers don’t support that. Reggie Bush and Derrick Henry also likely have arguments to make, as would WR Cody Latimer of Michigan and Mike Evans of Houston. On defense, DT Haloti Ngata, DE Cliff Avril, and LB DeMarco Ryans seem like the biggest season performers left off the list, but we cannot argue with the roster the league has put together.

After the All-USFL team received their honors, the individual honors began with the Rookie of the Year. While there were certainly votes for both WR Juju Smith-Schuster and SS Budda baker, both of Houston, it was a foregone conclusion that by leading his club to a 10-6 record, Charlotte QB Mitch Trubisky was going to take home the award, and so he did. Trubisky finished the season with over 3,300 yards, 23 touchdowns, and a 65.4% completion rate, all while helping his club with the Southern Division.

The Coach of the Year Award was about as big a landslide as we have seen in years, bolstered, no doubt, by a surprise playoff appearance. First year coach Mike Riley of Seattle was given accolades not only for getting the Dragons to the post-season in his first year, but for turning an 0-5 start into steady growth, growth that had Seattle win 9 of their final 11 games to qualify as a Wild Card. It marks the first time in league history that a team that started with 5 consecutive losses was able to turn the year around and qualify for the postseason. The vote was taken before Seattle knocked off division winner, San Diego, in the Wild Card round, but that victory certainly put the cherry on the sundae for Coach Riley and those who voted to give him this honor.

Next up was Defensive Player of the Year, or “how do we shaft Calais Campbell yet again”. We all know that Campbell is the most dominant player of his generation and having won the sack title this year by an impressive 9-sack lead over his own teammate, there is very good argument that once again Campbell should be receiving the award, which would be his 5th, a truly astonishing number. But, with Orlando finishing the year at 6-10 and well outside the playoff picture, the usual conundrum of an individual award being tied to team results came up again. The failure of Orlando, largely on offense, made it easier for voters to find someone other than Campbell to select. They did just that, taking a hard look at the 15-1 Arizona Wranglers and deciding that CB Joe Haden deserved their votes. Now, we are not knocking Haden. He is clearly among the elite cornerbacks in the league, and his season was a very strong one, with 111 tackles (a huge number for a corner) and 6 picks. But we think even Haden would still point to Campbell if asked who the most dominant defender in the league is, and was this year.

Offensive Player of the Year was perhaps the least drama-filled of any of the awards, with Jordy Nelson a runaway winner over 2nd place David Martin and 3rd place Larry Fitzgerald. With 1,851 yards and 14 touchdowns for the Breakers, Nelson won all but 2 first place votes in the nomination for OPOTY. He may have fallen shy of the league record of 1,959 yards, but his total this year marks the highest receiving total since 1992, and sets a new season mark all-time for the Breakers franchise.

And, of course, the final award of the evening, the USFL MVP for 2017 was no surprise either. David Carr, the defending MVP, makes it back-to-back awards after posting 4,269 yards passing, with 43 touchdowns to only 10 picks, and with a season Passer Rating of 127.6, a trifecta that put him at the top of the league in yardage, touchdowns, and QBR. With the back-to-back titles, Carr becomes the first repeat MVP since Kerry Collins won 3 years in a row from 2001-2003 with those championship Ohio Glory teams.

As always, kudos to all the players nominated and to the winners. Truly amazing individual performances all year long and each was a huge part of their team’s success as well.

Summer Bowl Preview

Here we go, for the 35th time two teams will battle it out to become the champions of spring football. The two teams we have this year are no stranger to this game. Houston has been champion a league-best 4 times, Michigan only 1 behind at 3 league titles. Now, that is not to say that these players have felt this pressure before. Certainly for Colt McCoy, in his first year as the starter in Houston, this is a new feeling, as it certainly is for most of the Panthers’ squad, since the last appearance by Michigan in a Summer Bowl was back in 2008. For Houston the last title was in 2010, so for both teams there is not a lot of direct experience, but these are two teams with proud traditions behind them.

As we broke down the game, we looked at the statistical differences to see where either team might have an advantage, then we selected 4 players to watch for each team, and finally we decided on two keys to the game for each team, steps they could take to nudge the game in their favor. So, what did we find out? Let’s start with the statistical distinctions between these two teams.

                                      HOUSTON          MICHIGAN

POINTS PER GAME:              28.2                     27.9

YARDS PER GAME:               370.5                   364.3

PASSING YARDS:                    281.6                        256.9

RUSHING YARDS:                  88.9                        107.4

POINTS ALLOWED:               18.9                          17.1

YARDS ALLOWED:                  316.7                        292.7

PASSING ALLOWED:               244.1                       201.8

RUSHING ALLOWED:              72.1                         90.9

TURNOVER MARGIN:            +19                         +10

SACKS:                                     75                            49

These numbers show two very evenly matched teams, with Michigan relying more on their run game than Houston, but with both teams able to put up significant yardage and nearly 30 points per game all season long. Houston is the more aggressive defense, shown in their league-leading sack total, while Michigan is happiest when they can play zone and keep teams from obtaining big chunks of yardage on offense.

The matchups that look like they might have a huge impact on the game start with LeVeon Bell up against the very stingy run defense of the Gamblers, and the Houston passing game against a pretty stingy Michigan defense. Both clubs are going to have to mix up their run and pass plays, as well as their targets in the passing game. We expect Michigan to try to take advantage of play action, forcing the Gamblers to account for Bell on every play while Houston, as we often see, may use the pass to open up the run game, forcing Michigan to keep their safeties back, creating more gaps for Carlos Hyde.

When it comes to playmakers, neither team lacks players with the capacity to break the game open. We limited ourselves to 4 key players for each squad, players who could be the key to their team’s chances on Saturday.

HOUSTON GAMBLERS

QB Colt McCoy: There was a lot of trepidation about handing the reins over to McCoy when Matt Hasselbeck retired, but this season has been about as ideal as Houston fans could have hoped for. McCoy has been on target, making good decisions, and has a cast around him that can make small plays into big plays at any moment. The main concern right now has to be mobility. If McCoy, wearing a brace, can have some elusiveness in his game, he can certainly make plays.

HB Carlos Hyde: Hyde is a defensive coordinator’s nightmare. He can run inside, he can take the ball to the edge, he blocks, and he is pretty darn good in the passing game as well. Expect Hyde to see as many as 30 touches in this game, mixing runs with short passes and screens to keep the Michigan defense on its toes.

LB Ramik Wilson: Wilson may have only finished with 84 tackles this year, but don’t mistake that number for a lack of impact. He is able to range sideline to sideline, is good in coverage and a big hitter against the run. He had 8 sacks this year as a blitzer and we expect him to be coming after Kirk Cousins pretty often in this one.

DT Albert Haynesworth: In his first year since moving over from Orlando in Free Agency, Haynesworth finds himself in a Summer Bowl. You won’t see a lot in his stats, but his presence is one of the reasons the Gamblers led the league in sacks despite having only 1 player over 10 sacks on the year. He eats up space in the middle, takes on double and sometimes triple assignments and makes it easier for blitzers to get a free run at the QB.

MICHIGAN PANTHERS

HB LeVeon Bell: Everyone in the building knows that when Michigan has the ball, Bell is at the center of what they are planning, and yet so often they cannot do a thing about it. Bell’s presence, the threat of the big run, force defenses to dedicate safeties and linebackers to him on every play, making play-action so very effective for Kirk Cousins. And when he gets the ball, which is often, Bell can still find ways to turn a 3-yard run into a 30-yarder.

WR Jerrel Jernigan: Because Houston will likely feel pressure to double cover Cody Latimer after a 91 reception, 1,332-yard season, Jernigan could have a big day. More of a possession receiver than Latimer, Jernigan can help Michigan rack up first downs, and he is a good target in the endzone, with 9 touchdowns this season. If he can get open underneath, that also may pull the safety away from either Latimer or TE Rob Housler, which would give Cousins an easy target.

LB Sean Porter: After receiving All-USFL recognition this week, Porter will be a key cog in the Panther defense on Saturday. He does a bit of everything, blitzing on occasion, covering the TE or a back out of the backfield, and often swatting out the ball (4 forced fumbles this season). If Porter can get hits on Carlos Hyde or Vernon Davis, we may see some turnovers in this game.

FS Kenny Phillips: With Dre Kirkpatrick expected to be on a play count, Phillips is going to be pivotal in how Michigan tries to defend the combination of Mike Evans and Juju Smith-Schuster. He will likely join in double coverage of a specific receiver each play, allowing Troy Petty to play centerfield and help Michigan avoid any deep plays.

KEYS TO THE GAME

So, we have looked at the stats, talked about key players, with that knowledge, what are the keys to victory for each team. We ran this question through the bullpen here at This Week in the USFL, and we got pretty consistent answers. Here are our picks for the 2 keys for each team going into the title game.

HOUSTON

1.  Use the Middle of the Field

The Gambler offense has a lot of variables, from deep throws to Smith-Schuster and Evans to a grinding run game with Carlos Hyde, but when they are at their best, they are keeping the defense on its toes by mixing in Vernon Davis over the middle along with Hyde as a receiver. Michigan will almost certainly be focused on keeping the two Gambler outside receivers in check, which means Davis could have a big day if the offense targets him.

2. Get to 3rd and 4 or Longer

Michigan is so dangerous on third and short because you absolutely have to account for LeVeon Bell, so play fakes are just incredibly effective, but if you underplay the run, then they will hand off to Bell and on 3rd and 3 or less he has a conversion rate of nearly 70%, so what is your option? Keep Michigan to 3rd and 4 or longer, minimizing the effectiveness of both the run and the play action game.

MICHIGAN

1. Get Bell on Track Early

This is not a shocker. Kirk Cousins’s best games are when the run game is well-established and defenses cannot drop 6 or 7 into coverage. That means finding ways to get Bell on track early, even with Houston putting men up in the box. This could be through screens, delays, or effective pulling linemen to give the offense a numbers advantage. Once it is shown that Bell can run, it means the defense has to commit more resources there, and that leaves receivers like Jernigan and Housler with better assignments.

2. Force McCoy to Move Around

We all saw in the Conference Title Game that Colt McCoy’s knee is still not at 100%, and we expect he will still be wearing a light brace on the knee. We also know that while McCoy can occasionally make plays outside the pocket, he is far less effective there than when he has a clean pocket to wait out routes. Michigan needs to overload one side or the other, forcing McCoy to roll or pivot out of the pocket. Based on stats from the last few weeks, when the knee was a factor, it seems flushing him to the left would produce the best results.

OUR PICK

We expect this to be a close one, perhaps quite high scoring, as many Summer Bowls are, and likely coming down to the 4th quarter and either a big play or a big stop. There is a lot of balance among these two teams. We give the offensive edge to the Gamblers just on the sheer number of weapons they have, but Michigan’s defense has proven time and again that they can adjust to a team’s strengths and remove their primary attack philosophy, so for both teams we think this comes down to which team adapts better to the strengths of their opponent.

We could be in for a chess game with multiple levels of adjustment as both teams try to counterattack the other. In the end, we think the edge in title games often seems to go to the offense, and while Michigan will have a slight advantage playing in their home stadium, it will not be an overly partisan crowd, with both teams getting equal ticket allotments and the league distributing the rest. So, in the end, we think Houston’s offensive variability is the key to this game, because as Michigan takes away some weapons, Houston has others to fall back on. Our pick is for the Gamblers to take a 2-game lead on the rest of the league, including Michigan, by winning their 5th title.  

Houston 33 – Michigan 28