2017 USFL Divisional Playoff Recap: Stars & Wranglers Shocked and Sidelined.

Four huge games, split right down the middle between road upsets and home favorites. We saw the top seed, the overall favorite, go down to defeat in overtime. We saw a 6-seed take out the 2-seed in their own stadium, but we also saw both a 1- and a 2-seed walk away unscathed and ready to head into the Conference Title Games next week. We also saw some teams starting to think ahead to the offseason, from interviewing for open coaching spots to scanning the list of potential free agents. We even had our first trades of the offseason as at least one club decided the time was now to purge their roster and free up some salary for the offseason. We will review the week that was, look ahead to this week’s Eastern and Western Title Games and talk about salary cap a little as teams try to set themselves up with the best chance to build their rosters for next year. All this, plus news of some big-name players hanging up their cleats. It’s all right here in our Divisional Playoff Recap edition of This Week in the USFL.

Saturday for Favorites, Sunday for Upsets

While there is always news around the league, this week the main story was on the field as we saw a tale of two very different days. Saturday’s divisional matchups played largely as expected, with the two Wild Card teams playing tough but eventually falling to the higher-seeded division winners. New Jersey played a solid game, but in the end the Gamblers just had a little bit more and took a 7-point victory. In Detroit, the Michigan Panthers looked clearly like the better club, with the defense holding down the surging Dragons and the big offensive producers, HB LeVeon Bell and WR Cody Latimer both having big games.

But on Sunday, the script was flipped, with two big upsets that few saw coming. In the early game, the New Orleans Breakers went into Philadelphia and stunned the Stars with a 26-20 victory. Drew Brees hit some big plays, including the game’s biggest, a 72-yard backbreaker to TE Coby Fleener that set the tone for the game. Later that evening, an even bigger upset as the 15-1 Arizona Wranglers were one-and-done after a shocking overtime loss to the 5-seed Las Vegas Vipers. Eli Manning was every bit up to the challenge of playing David Carr in a shootout, throwing for 4 touchdowns and helping Las Vegas come back from 14-point deficits twice before securing the win with an opening drive in overtime that will go down in USFL history.

The weekend shook expectations and ended all talk about an unstoppable Arizona dynasty. Yes, the Wranglers have been to 3 Summer Bowls and won 2 titles in a 4-year span, but they would not get the repeat and would not make it 3 straight appearances. We will have a new champion this year, and it is down to two pretty strong top seeds in the Houston Gamblers and Michigan Panthers, and two major underdogs in the Breakers and the Vipers. We also have 4 outstanding quarterbacks going into the Conference Finals, with Colt McCoy facing off against Drew Brees while Eli Manning will try to make it 2 consecutive Summer Bowls with 2 different teams as he faces Kirk Cousins and the Panthers.

NEW JERSEY GENERALS 20 HOUSTON GAMBLERS 26

An “old school grinder”, that is what Coach Wade Phillips called his Houston squad’s victory over the New Jersey Generals. It was that, indeed, with the two teams combining for 264 yards rushing as the ground game proved pivotal for both New Jersey and Houston. General HB Maurice Jones-Drew found big holes and big plays in the run game, rushing for 140 yards on 19 carries, an average of 7.4 yards per carry, boosted in a big way by a 43-yard run that led to 7 points in the third quarter. Not to be outdone, Houston’s Carlos Hyde rushed for 103 on 25 carries, but scored twice to help propel Houston to a 6-point victory in the Divisional matchup.

Colt McCoy outdueled Nick Foles in the air as well, completing 16 of 22 passes for 245 and a key 4th quarter TD to TE Dante Rosario. Foles had a harder time finding his receivers, completing only 18 of 34 passes, but hit on two important scoring tosses, a 5-yard touchdown to Odell Beckham Jr in the 3rd and a late TD to Miles Austin to pull within 6 at 2:27 left in the game. But, the final minutes were defined by the run game as Houston killed the clock and took the W thanks to their ability to run the ball in the final 2 minutes. New Jersey had a costly penalty on that final possession, turning a 3rd and 7 into a far more makable 3rd and 2 after an offsides call on Aaron Kampman. It was one of 9 penalties on the Generals in the game. Hyde won Game MVP for his 2 scores and his late success running the ball to secure the win. Houston now moves on to host the Conference Title Game at NRG Stadium next week.

SEATTLE DRAGONS 17 MICHIGAN PANTHERS 28

The Panthers secured their path to the Eastern Conference Title Game by pressuring Jacoby Brissett into two costly picks and by mixing the run with play action passes to rack up 445 total yards in a game dominated by the Panther offense. LeVeon Bell averaged 6.2 yards per carry on his way to 112, while also playing a big role in the passing game, where he caught 4 balls for 31 yards and a 2nd score. Kirk Cousins, using play action on early downs, added 314 yards and 2 scoring throws to Michigan’s impressive total. His two outside receivers, Latimer and Jernigan, did not catch any scoring throws, but combined for 238 yards receiving as Seattle’s defense had to come to the line to slow down Bell.

The Dragons’ impressive 9-2 record to reach the postseason and upset of San Diego in the Wild Card will be remembered for a long time in the Emerald City, but the magic ran out in Detroit, where Jacobby Brissett was pressured all day by Michigan’s front 7, producing 3 sacks and 2 drive-killing picks. He did throw a 4-yard TD to Mike Wallace, but it was Wallace’s only catch of the day as he spent most of the game double covered by the Panthers. The game was close until the final period, tied at 7-7 at the half, and through the 3rd, but Michigan wore down the Seattle defense, scoring 3 TDs in the final 9:13 of play. Touchdowns by TE Rob Housler, Bell, and FB Kyle Juszczyk highlighted the Panther’s late game domination as they move on to the Conference Title Game.

NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS 26 PHILADELPHIA STARS 20

The Breakers’ defense held Derrick Henry to only 2.5 yards per carry as the offense got a surprising lift from HB David Wilson, whose 9 carries produced several big runs adding up to 71 yards as New Orleans won a tight game with the Stars, knocking off the 2-seed in the East. A strong first quarter for New Orleans was highlighted by a 72-yard touchdown to TE Coby Fleener, who survived being hit by two defenders at once and kept moving towards the goalline. Down 10-0, Philadelphia rallied in the 2nd, but trailed 17-10 at the half. They got within 17-13 early in the 3rd, but two consecutive scoring drives from Drew Brees gave New Orleans a 26-13 lead that Philadelphia just could not overcome.

Brees only completed 8 passes on the day, but several produced big plays, including Fleener’s 72-yarder, a 44-yard TD to the league’s leading receiver, Jordy Nelson, and a 32-yard completion to another tight end, Joel Dreesen, that set up a TD run from Jawan Jamison in the 4th. Philadelphia, unable to get Derrick Henry on track, struggled to get big plays to match the upstart Breakers. Stevie Johnson had 6 receptions for 119, but never found the endzone. After a late score from Gutierrez to Randall Cobb, Philadelphia tried an onside kick, down 6, but New Orleans recovered, killed off 2:22 on the clock and punted back to Philadelphia with only 15 seconds to play. The Stars were simply unable to deliver up a miracle in that time and when the clock hit 0:00, the Breakers moved on to the Eastern Finals, where they will face division rival Houston for the third time this year.

LAS VEGAS VIPERS 33 ARIZONA WRANGLERS 27 OVERTIME

An absolute stunner in Glendale as the Las Vegas Vipers, a 13-point underdog by game time, outgunned the 15-1 Arizona Wranglers to punch an unexpected ticket to the Western Conference finals. It was a classic Eli Manning upset special, with the veteran QB outperforming league MVP candidate David Carr in a battle of gunslingers. Manning would throw for 292 yards to Carr’s 337, but his 4th touchdown of the game would prove the winning score in overtime to knock off the heavily favored Wranglers.

Early on the game looked like the Wrangler cakewalk many expected, with Arizona scoring on their first two drives to take an early 14-0 lead. A 48-yard TD to Fitzgerald on the 5th play of the game was followed by an equally devastating 54-yard bomb to Antonio Bryant. Fans in University of Phoenix Stadium were ready to party as Arizona took the 2-score lead, but Las Vegas refused to go away. Manning hit DaVante Parker for a score to get on the board, and even after falling behind 21-7, the Vipers just kept coming. They would score 17 unanswered in the 2nd quarter to go from 21-7 down to a 24-21 lead, stunning the Arizona crowd. It was Manning to Denarius Moore and then Tyler Eifert as the Arizona pressure left the secondary exposed.

The game was tied at the half after a last second Elliot Parson field goal, and after a strangely scoreless third quarter, the Vipers took the lead back with a field goal of their own early in the 4th. Arizona, unable to connect on deep balls since the first quarter, had to work their way down the field in small chunks, eventually putting a 37-yard kick on the board to tie the game with only 40 seconds left. But, the joy of pushing the game to overtime was quickly replaced by frustration as Eli Manning hit Arrelious Benn and Doug Baldwin with back-to-back first down throws to move into field goal territory only minutes into the extra time. Knowing a kick would not end the game, Coach Neuheisel went for a short 4th and 1 at the Arizona 31, and Jeremy Hill made good, diving ahead for 2 yards to keep the drive alive. 4 plays later, Manning connected with Denarius Moore on the receiver’s 2nd score of the day, leaving the Wrangler faithful stunned and their 15-1 team devastated. There would be no title defense for the 2016 Champions. The best team all season had fallen to an upstart 5-seed in their first playoff game. Las Vegas moves on and Michigan now finds itself hosting the title game in the same stadium where Summer Bowl 2016 will be held in 2 weeks.

McCoy Clearly Not at 100%, Hobbles to Houston Victory

It seems clear to anyone who watched Houston edge New Jersey that Colt McCoy is still not back to 100%. Many are questioning whether putting him in during Week 16 was not a mistake. His knee injury is clearly still a concern, limiting both the QB’s mobility and the velocity of his throws. Against New Jersey McCoy largely relied on underneath routes and drop downs to keep Houston moving down the field. On the few times New Jersey flushed him from the pocket, he was quick to dump off the ball rather than scrambling for yardage. While the Houston QB was not wearing a bulky knee brace, it was clear that he had at least some minimal support in place. As Houston prepares to face the New Orleans Breakers, the ability of McCoy to roll out of the pocket, to scramble as needed, and the ability of him to find the deep pass remain will be huge in Houston’s ability to run their offense and stretch the Breaker defense.

Panthers Hoping Home Cooking Will Get Them a Ring

The Michigan Panthers have a rare opportunity in pro football a chance to win a title in front of their home crowd. Having watched as Arizona was upset by Las Vegas, the realization quickly hit the Panther players that the Arizona loss meant the Panthers could roll to a title without ever having to leave the confines of Ford Field. This week, Michigan will host Las Vegas in the Western Conference Final. A win against the upstart 5-seed and they are in the Summer Bowl, and that Summer Bowl is right back at home in Detroit, played in the Panthers’ home stadium.

Will home cooking, a familiar bed every night, and an innate understanding of the field, their home field, be enough to get Michigan a title? It is a rare opportunity, and Panther fans are certainly hoping that if they hold off the Vipers, the somewhat beleaguered Detroit community will rally behind them and make the Summer Bowl feel like a home game. That could be difficult since nearly 80% of tickets are distributed by the league and not open for public sale. Michigan will have its team-allocated seats, but if Detroiters want to make the stadium rock in plum, sky, and champagne, they are going to have to hit the secondary ticket market hard, and that is going to cost a pretty penny. Last year, with both Arizona and Memphis playing far from home, tickets to the Summer Bowl at MetLife were still going for well over $1,500 a seat. If Michigan is able to play host and compete in the game, we could see tickets easily topping $2,000 or $3,000 on the resale market.

Brees Completes only 8, but Deep Throws Defeat Stars

It was the football equivalent of asking how many licks it takes to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop. One-two-go deep on 3 was the play for QB Drew Brees. In their win over Philadelphia, Brees only attempted 16 passes, and only completed 8, but it was what he did with those 8 that mattered most. Brees averaged 17.9 yard per attempt (nearly 35 yards per completion), racking up nearly 300 yards on only 8 completions. That included his 72-yard TD toss to TE Coby Fleener, as well as a 44-yarder to Jordy Nelson, and completions of 29 and 32 yard to Kenny britt and Joel Dreesen. It was about quality, not quantity against the Stars. Now with Houston lined up across from them, Brees will again be asked to work wonders from the pocket. He may dink and dunk this week, or he may again go for home run balls and upset the Gamblers with the big play, not the slow-steady approach that so many teams attempt.

Manning Magic as Vipers Vanquish Arizona in Overtime

Fans across the USFL may still be debating the merits of a case for Eli Manning to be considered an “elite” quarterback, but there is no doubt that when his team is in the playoffs, he becomes the best version of himself. Manning proved that once again with a 4-touchdown performance that put his Las Vegas Vipers into the Western Conference Championship and stunned the top-seeded Arizona Wranglers, ending their quest for back-to-back titles.

To say Manning has been erratic as a regular season quarterback seems fair. He has a lifetime QB Rating of 86.2, not exactly a legendary number. That includes several seasons in New Orleans and Orlando where he finished below 80. His career TD:INT ratio stands at 228:155. Which is above water but is not elite to be sure. But when we look at what Eli has done in the postseason, last year with Memphis, this year with Las Vegas, and even back in 2009, when he led the underdog Breakers to road wins over the Nashville Knights and Philadelphia Stars before falling in the Eastern Conference Finals, you have to say that he is at his best when it matters most.

Last year, despite knowing full well that the team was transitioning towards rookie Paxton Lynch, Manning led the Showboats to a 12-4 record, the best record ever for a Wild Card team, then proceeded to defeat New Orleans, division champion Houston, and the NE Division champion Generals to reach the Summer Bowl. This year, now with an entirely different cast of characters, Manning has led Las Vegas to the Western Conference Championship, again taking the underdog route by winning in Denver, and now knocking off the top-seeded 15-1 Arizona Wranglers.

Against Denver his numbers were solid, but not spectacular, completing 30 of 45 passes for 356 yards but tossing no touchdowns against the Denver defense. This week, against a superior defense in Arizona, Manning threw for fewer yards, though a still impressive 292, but added 4 touchdown passes with no picks. He led the comeback from being down 14-0 and again at 21-7, took a lead in the 4th, and then saw it disappear, only to come out in the opening drive of overtime and lead the Vipers to an improbable game-ending touchdown. So, as we look ahead to the Vipers’ unlikely Championship match-up with Michigan, perhaps we should second guess the naysaying and expect to see the best version of Eli Manning we have seen all year.

Looking ahead to the two championship games, there are no major additions to the injury list. New Orleans is a bit healthier, with DE Cameron Jordan expected to play and LB Rocky McIntosh at about a 50/50 chance. For Houston, they will again go with only 2 QBs, with Landry Jones not replaced with a free agent. Las Vegas should see Arrelious Benn in action, but Montario Hardesty remains out. Michigan is hoping to get both guard Chris Watt and WR B. J. Cunningham back on the field, both listed as “probable” for the game.

NOR: OT Charles Leno (IR), DT Everett Dawson (IR), LB Rocky McIntosh (Q), DE Cameron Jordan (P)

HOU: G Ryan Seymour (IR), QB Landry Jones (IR), DT John Jenkins (Q)

LV: HB Montario Hardesty (OUT), OT Nat Dorsey (OUT), FS Antrel Rolle (OUT), WR Arrellious Benn (P)

MGN: SS Jabril Peppers (OUT), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (D), G Chris Watt (P), WR B. J. Cunningham (P)

Retirement Announcements Continue

Another week into the offseason for many teams, with several more joining them after playoff defeats, and that means more players making their decision to step away from the game they have played since they were small children. For teams it may be about cap space, or filling holes in the lineup, but for each of these players it is about stepping away from what has been a major focus of their entire lives, a tough time, even for those who leave the game with a sense of satisfaction. And while the list of newly announced retirements is not quite as long as we saw last week, these are still big changes for these players and for their teams.

SS Adam Archuleta (BAL)

After 16 seasons, one of the longest tenures in Baltimore history, the “Old Man of the Defense” is going to be absent from the locker room next year. Archuleta has been a starter pretty much since he was drafted by Baltimore back in 2001. He leaves the Blitz with a legacy of leadership and a reputation as one of the league’s fiercest hitters. He also retires with some impressive numbers, including 1,095 tackles, 39 sacks, 12 picks, and 1 forced fumbles.

WR D. J. Hackett (CHA)

Another veteran with a long tenure on one team, D. J. Hackett has been the primary receiver in Charlotte since he came to the team in 2008. Following a brief NFL career, Hackett joined the expansion Monarchs and has been a fixture in the starting lineup ever since. With precise routes and soft hands, Hackett has put together six 1,000-yard seasons in his 10 USFL seasons, including each of the last 5. He has also racked up 61 touchdowns and more than 800 receptions as a member of the Monarchs. With Hackett’s announcement, the question becomes whether Charlotte will promote Hakeem Nicks into the top position or will look to bring in a veteran to help develop young receivers like Mac Hollins and Isaiah McKenzie.

WR Mike Williams (PIT)

One of 4 players active today with his name, Pittsburgh’s Mike Williams will be leaving the game after 12 seasons, including 4 each in Washington, Arizona, and Pittsburgh. An injury held him to only 1 start in 2017, a year after he put up career numbers in 2016 with 41 catches and 81 yards. He retires with 348 career receptions. 4,760 yards and 27 career touchdowns.

WR Tiquan Underwood (DAL)

A shifty receiver, Underwood played for the Skyhawks, Invaders, Dragons, and Roughnecks over his 8-season USFL career. The last two years in Dallas saw him reach career highs, with 12 touchdowns and over 1,300 yards over the past two seasons. With Underwood’s announcement, many expect young Geronimo Allison to get a shot opposite Tim Wright.

SS Shane Welton (CHA)

A 14-year career is nothing to sneeze at, and while Shane Welton has not always been a superstar for the Monarchs, he has served as the starter on a pretty good defense since coming over to the team in 2010. He retires with 659 career tackles at the strong safety position.

C Austin King (BAL)

Our last big announcement of the week was that of 37-year-old center for the Cannons, Federals, and Blitz. King started 157 games over his 14-year career, racking up over 500 pancakes while allowing only 46 sacks, only one ever 3.4 games. Baltimore has been grooming 4th-year center Tim Barnes, expecting this day to come, but it still won’t be easy to replace a veteran leader like King.

Portland Purge? Salary Cap Issues Lead to Early Trades

Last week we listed the Portland Stags as one of two USFL clubs that were underwater in their salary cap situation for 2018. They came into their offseason not only one of the league’s biggest on-field disasters at 3-13, but were also nearly $4M over the cap for the upcoming season. That means that they needed to clear at least $8M to have a chance to sign their draft class, not to mention any free agents for a roster that seems to need some nsiderable upgrades.

Well, it seems the Stags have taken the hint. They restructured the contracts of QB Marcus Mariota, WR Brandin Cooks, and CB Vernon Hargreaves, who had been making a ludicrous $4.8M per season without the production to warrant even half of that. But, even with major shifts in those three deals, the Stags were still far short of a comfort zone in their cap. So, what is a GM to do? He starts trading away overpriced and underproducing players. And that is exactly what Portland has done, jumping the gun on free agency with two big deals that freed up considerable cap room.

The Stags, whose offense was not exactly dynamic, apparently decided that less is more. In two separate deals, one with Tampa Bay and another with Pittsburgh, freed up nearly $7m in salary by moving two well-regarded skills players. They started on Monday, announcing that TE Jordan Cameron had been dealt to the Bandits for two draft picks, a 3rd rounder this year and a 4th in 2019. Tampa Bay, having allowed their own high-priced TE, Greg Olsen, finish his contract and explore free agency, brings in a solid option at the position, one that will likely need a contract revision, but a younger option at the position. Portland, liking what they saw from 3rd year end Trey Burton and rookie Pharaoh Brown, got something for Cameron, who would have gone to free agency at the end of next year.

Their second move, sending Brian Quick to Pittsburgh in trade for CB A. J. Bouye, is a bit more understandable. Since a strong sophomore year that saw Quick rack up 77 receptions and 997 yards, Quick has dipped every season since, down to 738 yards in 2015, 621 in 2016, and only 39 catches for 402 yards. Apparently in Pittsburgh they found a team that believes Quick is being underused, not losing his talents. The Maulers part with a cornerback who has 6 picks in his 5 seasons, but who has also served as a return specialist for them. Bouye, on a league minimum contract, is a good deal for the Stags, saving them nearly a full $4M and giving them room to sign a potential free agent or two, but the departure of both Jordan and Quick means that Portland will need to find some skills talent. They are likely to promote Burton to the starting TE position and replace Quick in the slot with either Jordan Shipley or a rookie, but just who will come to the Stags at this time is unknown. We will have to wait and see how their search for a Head Coach, a position not impacted by the cap, affects their ability to bring talent to the Rose City.

Bulls Speak with Flores & Mangini

Jacksonville is jumping right into the Coaching search, requesting to meet with Charlotte defensive coordinator Brian Flores as well as setting up a meeting with another former defensive coach, ex-49er DC Eric Mangini. It seems clear that the Bulls, who have had a halfway decent defense the past two seasons, are going to double down on winning games with defense. They have big issues at QB, and are thin at WR, but they seem deadest on building the defense first, and in finding a coach who can build an opportunistic, ballhawking squad. Mangini, who had a short and somewhat troubled position as the head coach of the NFL Cleveland Browns, spent the past year with the 49ers, but was let go along with their head coach this past February. Flores is now available for interviews, following Charlotte’s Wild Card bow out against New Orleans. His defense in Charlotte finished the season 7th in yards allowed and 1st in the league against the run.

That is an attractive set of credentials for a Bulls team that was solid in taking the ball away, but gave up too many yards. Now, many will say that the real issue with the Bulls defense was that they were just on the field far too much. When your offense scores only 15.6 points per game and leads the league in 3-and-outs, that is going to happen. So, whether the Bulls go with Flores, Mangini, or a third option, the key to building a solid defense may actually lie in developing a viable offense that can do more when they have the ball, use more of the clock, and put some points on the board.

Two Teams Want to Interview Nagy as Breakers Move On

Looks like the coaching carousel will have to wait at least another week before stopping at Matt Nagy’s door. The Breaker OC is a hot commodity, with several teams inquiring about his interview schedule. But, as we know, as long as New Orleans stays alive in the playoffs, teams are prohibited from communicating with Coach Nagy directly. They can speak with his agent, and they can try to schedule a meeting for a point after the Summer Bowl, but there can be no direct contact with the coach as long as his team remains active in the postseason, which this week’s win over Philadelphia assure at least for 5 more days.

Nagy is being credited with developing a multiple formation, high-motion, complex passing offense in New Orleans, one that maximizes the benefits of Drew Brees’s on-field IQ and accuracy. That offense allowed Jordy Nelson a legitimate shot at the league’s 30-year-old receiving yardage record and also produced strong numbers for Brees (including a 123.8 QB Rating), and receivers ranging from speedster Kenny Britt to TE Coby Fleener and even fullback Curtis Nelson, who led all blocking backs with 24 receptions this year. Those kinds of stats have made Nagy a frontrunner for a head coaching position, with rumors that both Portland and Washington are both very interested in him as a candidate. But for now, both the Stags and Federals, along with everyone else, will have to wait to try to land the up and coming coordinator, because he still has a job to do with the Breakers.

Dallas looking locally for Top Coach Candidates

The Roughnecks are another team looking to fill their vacant Head Coaching position. While former OC Todd Haley remains a candidate, it seems that the Roughnecks are also scouring the state of Texas for other options. Meetings have been scheduled with two local college coaches as well as two NFL coaches who can speak with Dallas but would not be available to hire until January (assuming they were not fired mid-season). Among the Lone Star State candidates are Houston Oiler DC Romeo Crennell, Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin, Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury, and, an interesting pick in that his position is somewhat unique, Dallas Cowboy LB Coach and passing game coordinator, Matt Eberflus. What makes Eberflus so interesting is that he is not currently either an offensive or defensive coordinator, and yet with the Cowboys his position touches on both, serving to coach up the Cowboy linebacker group while simultaneously providing coach Jason Garrett with passing game schemes and calls.

Whether Dallas goes with a pro coordinator, including their own OC, or opts to test out a college coach in a pro position, well that is very much up to them. What seems clear, however, is that they are either very keen on bringing in someone who has spent time coaching in the state of Texas or they are just trying to keep their hiring team’s airline mileage down by skipping the trips to see coaches on the coast and staying in state with their exploration of options. Seems Mark Cuban, lead owner of the Roughnecks, is more frugal than his reputation reports.

We are down to four teams, two division champions and two surprising lower seed Wild Cards, ready to fight for the right to appear in Summer Bowl 2017 at Detroit’s Ford Field. Will Michigan use home field against Las Vegas to make an appearance in a Summer Bowl in their home stadium? Will Houston ride their one seed into the league championship, or will the Vipers or Breakers rise up and shatter their opponent’s home field advantage? Everything is on the line, only 2 games and we will be at Summer Bowl 2016.

9-7 NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS (6) @ 14-2 HOUSTON GAMBLERS (1)

Sunday, July 17 @ 2pm ET

NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Gamblers -7

A matchup of the 1-seed and the 6-seed is pretty rare in a Conference Title Game, and even more rare to have the two be divisional foes, but that is what we have next week. Houston and New Orleans played twice already this season, with Houston sweeping the series, winning big at home in Week 5, 40-27, then completing the series with a 28-17 win in New Orleans. In both games the Breakers had trouble containing the passing game of the Gamblers. Colt McCoy threw for 5 touchdowns and over 600 yards combined in the two games, with Vernon Davis, JuJu Smith Shuster and Mike Evans all putting up good numbers. The Breakers did better against the run, but they may need to contain both if they hope to win this third matchup.

New Orleans will be quick to point out that it was Pat White, not Drew Brees in the Week 9 game, but it was Brees in Week 5, when Houston won by 13 at home. Admittedly, the Breakers were competitive on offense in that game, coming on strong only after Houston had built a 26-0 lead and outscoring them 27-14 the rest of the way, but you generally don’t want to wait until you are down 4 scores before you find answers on offense. If New Orleans is going to pull this one off, they are going to need big games from Brees, Nelson, Fleener, and their defense. Patrick Peterson will likely be matched up on Mike Evans all game, which means that McCoy might try to work more towards Davis and Smith-Schuster, so the rest of the Breaker D had better be ready.

OUR PICK: We know that Drew Brees has been here before, while Colt McCoy has only ever watched from the sidelines, but this Houston squad is deep, disciplined, and they just have so many weapons, it will be a huge task for New Orleans to hold them down. We think it is likely too much to ask. We are going with Houston, 33-26.

9-7 LAS VEGAS VIPERS (5) @ 12-4 MICHIGAN PANTHERS (2)

Sunday, July 17 @ 6pm ET

Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Panthers -4

Las Vegas seems wary after losing big when the Vipers upset Arizona last week. This should by all rights be a wider margin for the Panthers, but it seems that there is a lot of faith out there in Eli Manning to pull off another upset, keeping the line under 6 points. These two teams met in Week 2 and, well, it was not pretty. Michigan dominated on both sides of the ball and crushed the Vipers in their home opener, 45-14. Has enough changed between then and now for us to pick Las Vegas in this game? No, not really. If anything, Las Vegas is in a worse position having lost Montario Hardesty, their lead runner. So, how do the Vipers get the W?

As with the Breaker-Gambler game, it all comes down to the Vegas QB having a surreal game. Now, we have seen Eli Manning do that before, with last year’s playoffs being prime evidence that it is possible. But, it is hardly something you can anticipate. Michigan will have picked apart the film from the Vipers’ upset of Arizona. They will certainly approach Manning differently, and on offense, Michigan poses a very different issue for the Viper D, the run game of LeVeon Bell. This won’t be a purely aerial assault from Kirk Cousins. He is going to be there, but this offense depends on Bell and the threat of the breakaway run to keep linebackers and safeties from bailing out of the box.

OUR PICK: Yes, we are going with both home favorites, but that is why they are home favorites. We just don’t see the Panthers’ D buckling this week, not with what could be a very one-dimensional Las Vegas attack. This one may be a bit too close for Panther fans to enjoy the whole game, but we think the final result will lean their way. Panthers 20-17.