2017 USFL Wild Card Playoff Recap

For all the hoopla about playoff seeding and homefield advantage, the USFL this year just goes to show that sometimes it is more about who is hot than who is home. Three of four games were won by the road underdog in this week’s Wild Card playoffs. That includes both 6-seeds emerging victorious as well as 5-seed Las Vegas. The Seattle Dragons continued their Cinderella story by outlasting the Pacific Division Champion San Diego Thunder. New Orleans got a huge game from Drew Brees to blow past rookie Mitch Trubisky and the SE Division Champion Monarchs, and Las Vegas got vintage Eli Manning in their win at Denver, a game that saw Matt Leinart looking very much out of focus. Only the New Jersey Generals managed to use their home field as an advantage, holding off the Baltimore Blitz thanks to a nice game form Maurice Jones-Drew.

We will recap all four Wild Card games, take a look at the first wave of player retirement announcements, explore possible fits for 10 of the best players already considered Free Agents, and look at the salary cap and its potential influence on the offseason. All that, plus previews of this week’s big Divisional Playoffs, when the 4 top seeds will hit the field against the upstart Wild Cards. But we start with the news that has shaken the Bay Area like a 5.5 earthquake, with Coach Dennis Green retiring and leaving the Invaders with no head coach and no quarterback.

Green Steps Down, Oakland Scrambling

To say the last 10 days have been rough on Invader fans would be an understatement. First, last Tuesday, their star QB, still in crutches after an MCL tear, announces that he will not be returning for the 2018 season. And just yesterday, head coach Dennis Green makes public what management has apparently only known for a couple of days, that he is retiring effective immediately. Green, who has been at the helm of the Invaders since 2003, a 15-season tenure, one of the longest in the league. In his time at Oakland, he has led the Invaders to the playoffs 11 times, won 3 Pacific Division Titles and took Oakland to Summer Bowl 2009. He amassed a franchise record 130 wins and an overall record of 130-100-0 for a .565 winning percentage.

Green, who turned 68 this year, was among the eldest of the league’s 28 head coaches, and his tenure was one of the longest, but for many in the Bay Area, his retirement is still a huge shock. In a year when Oakland dropped to 6-10, missed its star QB for all but 4.5 games, and struggled with a roster that is clearly in a generational shift, the steadying hand of Green was seen as a factor that could lead to a quick rebound. But now, with Green stepping down, the team is left with a huge leadership gap. As the club searches for a new front office leader, the club absolutely has to address on-field leadership as well. The biggest stars on the roster are all young, including rookie HB Christian McCaffrey, 26-year-old receiver Davante Adams, and defensive star Bobby Wagner (in his 5th season).

So, where does Oakland go now? Well, it appears that Green did not leave them empty-handed. He provided a list of potential coaching candidates who he believes are best suited to move the team forward with management. Rumored to be on that list are defensive coordinator and former USFL star Kurt Gouveia, passing game specialist Dave Canales, current Stanford head coach David Shaw, and former Denver Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak. Whether or not the Invaders limit their search to those 4 candidates or cast a wider net will have to be seen over the next few weeks, but Oakland’s venerable founding owner Tad Taube has stated that the team will move quicky to find a suitable replacement. The 83-year old Taube, who handed over operations to minority owner Robert Pera several years back, still remains the face of the franchise in league matters, but it will be GM Rick Mueller who has the task of finding both a new head coach and a starting QB for the franchise.

With Oakland needing both on-field and front office leadership, this will be a very interesting offseason by the Bay. Expect a quick move on the head coaching position, followed by attempts to find a path towards either a trade for a veteran QB or a deal with either Philadelphia or Oklahoma to try to get a shot at one of the hot QB prospects locked into T-Draft protected roles, Lamar Jackson of Louisville being in Philadelphia’s protected school group and Baker Mayfield at OU being in the Outlaw’s protected group. Oakland has to be looking at these two, along with Wyoming’s Josh Allen, as they already know that neither the LA Express or San Diego Thunder would ever give them, as division rivals, a shot at USC’s Sam Darnold or UCLA’s Josh Rosen. Like we said, this will be a huge offseason for the future of the Invaders, doubly so with Green’s retirement adding another dimension to their busy fall and winter.

NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS 34 CHARLOTTE MONARCHS 21

The first of four Wild Card games provided the first of three upsets by the visitors as New Orleans scored 24 unanswered points to close out the first half and take control of their game against the Southeastern Champion Monarchs. Drew Brees was a master at play, throwing for 360 yards and 4 touchdowns, including two to Jordy Nelson in the 2nd quarter that blew the game open. Mitch Trubisky played well, throwing 3 touchdowns to keep the game respectable, but it was just not enough as Charlotte fell to 20 points down at 27-7 early in the 3rd quarter and just could not recover.

After an early Trubisky to Hackett TD started the scoring, the game simply turned. Drew Brees responded with a lightning fast 5-play drive that saw him hit Coby Fleener with a perfect seam route for New Orleans’s first score. In the 2nd quarter he would lead an exhausting 14-play drive for a second score, a 2-yard flip (honestly, an underhand flip on the run) to Nelson. Then, only 5 minutes later, he hit Nelson from 17-yards out and it was 21-7. Two more field goal drives and New Orleans had the game well in hand. The Breakers used the run in the second half, with Fournette and Wilson combining for 99 yards on 24 carries, and it set up one last big play as play action let Brees find Kenny Britt on a 40-yard fly route that just ripped the hearts out of the Monarch faithful at Bank of America Stadium.

LAS VEGAS VIPERS 29 DENVER GOLD 13

Eli Manning did not throw a single touchdown, but he also did not give the ball away. Matt Leinart also did not throw a TD in this one, but his three picks were devastating for the Gold. The Gold committed 4 turnovers in the game, and Las Vegas garnered 13 points off of them, not the decisive points, but enough to pull away and hold a lead.

An early Leinart pick, straight into the hands of E. J. Gaines, was returned all the way to the Denver 7, and 2 plays later Montario Hardesty plunged into the endzone for the first of 2 Vegas TDs in the 2nd quarter. It was 20-3 at the half as Denver just looked out of sorts against the Las Vegas defense. Leinart would complete only 13 of 29 passes, but the killer were the picks. After clawing back to 23-13 midway through the 4th, Denver gave up a 4th field goal to Viper kicker Brett Maher, and on the very next play from scrimmage, Leinart again tossed a ball right to a defender, this time CB Sheldon Richardson, his second pick of the game. That allowed Las Vegas to add 3 more and now up 16, it was too much for Denver in the final moments of the game.

The Vipers finished the game with a 413-258 yardage advantage, a 36:11-23:49 time of possession advantage, and the deadly 1-4 turnover margin. They did have a loss in the game however as starting HB Montario Hardesty was injured midway through the 2nd quarter. The team would later reveal that it was a partial hamstring tear, likely ending the back’s playoff season. But, Las Vegas moves on, and Coach Neuheisel says they are raring to take on the 1-seed when they head to Arizona next week.

BALTIMORE BLITZ 21 NEW JERSEY GENERALS 24

The only home team to win this week, and in perhaps the week’s best game, New Jersey never trailed, but also never pulled away from the Blitz all game. It was a 7-point lead after 1 quarter, thanks to a Delone Carter TD run on the lone scoring play of the period, then 14-13 at the half, with Baltimore first equalizing the score with a Lance Moore TD catch. New Jersey responded by getting a nice 9-yard TD run from MJD, but an effective 2-minute drill gave Baltimore a chance to tie. Roethlisberger hit Brian Hartline with a beauty of a corner route for 30 yards and 6 points, but kicker Josh Lambo had the PAT blocked at the line.

The second half saw New Jersey add 3 points to make it a 17-13 lead. They relied heavily on MJD in the game, both to eat clock and to gain first downs. Jones-Drew finished the game with 106 on the ground, another 6 touches through the air for 35 yards, and was responsible for 7 of New Jersey’s 8 successful third down conversions. He would also add the game-winning score early in the 4th, a short swing pass from Nick Foles that put the Generals up 24-13. Baltimore would score late, but it was too little too late as New Jersey held the ball for the final 2:33 and took the victory.

SEATTLE DRAGONS 21 SAN DIEGO THUNDER 14

The third and final upset propelled the Cinderella Dragons into the divisional round. The game was honestly not as close as the final score made it look. Seattle scored the first 21 points, one score per quarter, and had a 21-0 lead until the 8-minute mark of the 4th. The Dragon defense stayed in coverage, with LB Khalil Mack hanging back as a spy on Joe Webb instead of rushing the passer. The tactic worked, with Webb rushing the ball 8 times for only 17 yards. The coverage scheme also led to 3 picks as Seattle simply dared Webb to win the game with his arm.

On offense, Jacoby Brissett was not asked to do much, throwing only 17 passes, but was amazingly efficient, completing 15 of his 17 throws. After rushing touchdowns from Joseph Addai and Brandon Oliver in the first half, Brissett threw his first playoff touchdown in the third, connecting with speedster Mike Wallace on a 17-yard endzone fade to put Seattle up 21-0. In the 4th the Thunder finally got on the board when Terrance West broke out of a tackle and raced 19 yards to paydirt. They would add a Chad Johnson TD in the final seconds but could not recover the onside kick and had no time outs to stop the game from ticking away from them. Seattle’s Xavien Howard, with 2 picks of Webb, was named player of the game, and Seattle now prepares for a trip to Detroit and a tough matchup with a very good Michigan Panther squad.

Drew Breezes Through Monarch D

It was the kind of performance you expect from a 2-time league MVP, and that is exactly what Drew Brees provided for the Breakers as they took over the game in the 2nd quarter and never looked back. Brees was 17 of 21 on the day, including a streak of 11 consecutive completions from the late 1st quarter until the half. He would throw 3 TDs in those 11 throws, and then add a 40-yarder late to drive home the message that at 38 he is still one of the most accurate, incisive, and dangerous QBs in the game today.

Charlotte got to the playoffs on the back of their defense, a squad that allowed an average of only 21.1 points per game and was 1st in the league against the run. Problem was, Drew Brees was not running, he was throwing the ball, and with amazing accuracy all game long. It was a clinic, led by a master craftsman. If I were prepping the Stars’ defense for Brees this week, I would not be getting a lot of sleep, because Brees was effective against zones, completed 6 of 8 when pressured, and just picked out receivers all game long. New Orleans has been quite inconsistent all season, but if this is the version of Drew Brees the Stars are going to see next week, they had better be ready for a shootout.

Did Leinart’s 3-Pick Day Put Denver in the QB Hunt?

On the other side of the spectrum, the heat on Matt Leinart after the game shows just how fickle a fanbase can be. Leinart has never been an “elite” quarterback, with a lifetime QB Rating under 90, and a limited range on his deep ball, but what fans saw on Saturday was a veteran QB who simply did not seem to be reading the defense well at all. Of his three costly picks on the day, two appeared to be thrown right to the defender, and these were not ducks thrown up as he was being hit, these were clean pocket mistakes.

Coach Hufnagel was quick to point out that Matt Leinart was a big reason the Gold were in the playoffs at all, but the fans have not been as forgiving this week. Denver sports radio is awash in callers begging the Gold to take a serious look at the rookie QB class, including a player who has gotten a lot of attention locally, Wyoming QB Josh Allen. Leinart is not expected to go anywhere. He signed an extension through 2019 just 2 months ago, and Coach Hufnagel sees him as a core member of his team’s leadership group, but don’t tell that to the upset Gold fans who watched their team lose in the first round of the playoffs for the 4th time in 6 years. Their last playoff win was back in 2010, and they seem to be getting a bit fed up with being good enough to make an appearance but not good enough to turn that into a run of good games.

Xavien Howard A Star on the Rise

The playoffs are a time when a player can go from being well-regarded by his team and the local fans to breaking out onto the national stage. This week’s game in San Diego may have been that moment for Seattle 2nd year corner Xavien Howard. Fans in Seattle have loved what they have seen of Howard since his 4-interception, 42-tackle rookie campaign. This year he doubled his interceptions, becoming the league leader in his 2nd campaign, but when you play in the Pacific Northwest, you just don’t get much exposure, even with the USFL’s bevvy of national games. Well, if you were watching Howard closely for the first time this week, you got to see what Dragon fans have been seeing for 2 full seasons, a player who is tenacious in his coverage, quick to react when the ball is thrown, and has the hands to turn a deflection into an interception. Howard took the ball out of the hands of Chad Johnson twice, something you just don’t see. Yes, Joe Webb could have placed the ball better, but Johnson is notorious for winning 50/50 balls, but not on this day. Howard showed up and balled out against a very savvy veteran wideout. If this was your first exposure to Howard, congratulations, we think you will be seeing a lot more of him as his career continues.

MJD Does it All for Generals

There is no doubt that 2017 has been a career highpoint for Maurice Jones-Drew. A bit unusual to say that about a halfback who turned 31 during the season, but MJD’s 1,314 yards were a career high, allowing him to finish ahead of LeVeon Bell and just behind David Martin in the yardage race. He continued his outstanding year on Sunday with a huge game against the Blitz. He was a big part of the passing game, getting 7 targets and converting them into 6 catches for 35 yards and the game-clinching score.

Not too bad for a player jokingly referred to as the Pocket Hercules. At 5’7” he is a surprisingly powerful back, and at 31 he is surprisingly fast. He has great hands, which is why Nick Foles just kept looking his way, and he is a team leader, joking with OBJ one minute and chastising a lineman for a missed protection on the next. Well, this week’s game he got to do a bit of everything, rushing for 106 while also making some key blocks and bringing in the ball when it was thrown to him. A very strong day for Pocket Hercules indeed.

Two Injuries that Could Impact Divisional Games

As we look ahead to the Divisional Round, there are two Wild Card Game injuries that could very much influence the course of games this week. For the Las Vegas Vipers, the loss of lead back Montario Hardesty could produce significant changes to the team’s offensive schemes against that brutally tough Arizona Defense. For New Jersey, losing DT Amobi Okoye could equally force some changes to the defensive structure of the front 7 as they prepare for Carlos Hyde and the Houston Gamblers’ potent attack.

Hardesty went down early in the 2nd quarter against Denver, suffering a hamstring injury. He remained on the sideline, but by Monday it had been revealed as a partial tear, which rules him out of any upcoming games this postseason. In the second half against Denver, former Breaker Jeremy Hill took over as the lead back and had minimal success, averaging only 2.5 yards per carry. Against Arizona, his ability to improve on those results could be the difference between Arizona playing an honest base defense and going into full QB attack mode. The Vipers, and veteran Eli Manning, would love to see Arizona forced to respect the run and not send bodies at the somewhat immobile Manning.

For New Jersey, the loss of Okoye to a torn bicep in his right arm means that their 3-4 will be without their pivot in the middle. They will move B. J. Raji into that spot, and while Raji is solid against the run, he does not have the penetration skills that Okoye brought to the position. What that means is that the Generals will likely have to rely more heavily on their duo of edge rushers, Vic Beasley and Aaron Kampman, to beat double teams. Either that or we will see more blitzing from Aldon Smith, Rey Maualaga, or rookie Matt Milano. New Jersey rarely blitzed during the regular season, with Beasley and Kampmann accounting for 34 of the team’s 55 sacks, but with Okoye out, we may see New Jersey try to create more mismatches by sending pressure, a risky move with Houston’s receiver group and the effective role Carlos Hyde has in the passing game.

The two injuries highlighted above are the primary stories on the injury front this week. For the 4 teams just beginning their playoff run, there are some key figures out, but most are injuries that have been in place for several weeks. Philadelphia will be without FS Jairus Byrd, as they have been for the past few weeks, but it looks as if LB Dan Connor can return for this game. For Michigan, the question is about CB Dre Kirkpatrick. He is listed as doubtful, but has been participating in limited practice all week. Houston’s big injury is to backup QB Landry Jones. Colt McCoy will start, but if he is still dealing with the fallout from his knee injury, then Jeff Driskol remains the lone backup available. Finally, Arizona is happy to see Peyton Barber at practice, and is perhaps the healthiest team overall.

NOR: OT Charles Leno (IR), DT Everett Dawson (IR), LB Rocky McIntosh (Q), DE Cameron Jordan (P)

PHI: FS Jairus Byrd (IR), G Rokevious Watkins (OUT), WR Alexander Lefebvre (OUT), LB Dan Connor (P)

SEA: TE Dennis Pitta (IR), OT Terron Armstead (IR), HB C. J. Anderson (D), DE Travis LaBoy (Q)

MGN: SS Jabril Peppers (OUT), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (D), G Chris Watt (D), WR B. J. Cunningham (Q)

NJ: DT Amobi Okoye (OUT)

HOU: G Ryan Seymour (IR), QB Landry Jones (IR), DT John Jenkins (Q)

LV: HB Montario Hardesty (OUT), OT Nat Dorsey (OUT), FS Antrel Rolle (OUT), WR Arrellious Benn (P)

ARZ: WR Jaelen Strong (IR), SS Joseph Beal (Q), HB Peyton Barber (P)

Retirement Announcements Begin with Big Loss for Maulers

As we see every year, the early weeks of the playoffs are also the primary period when USFL players declare their intention to file with the league and the union for retirement. This year’s announcements began in earnest this week, with one of the biggest names to declare his career complete coming in Pittsburgh, with the retirement of two-time All-USFL edge rusher Jared Allen. Allen played 14 seasons in the USFL, primarily with the Blitz and Maulers, having been in Pittsburgh since 2010. He retires with over 150 sacks (152 to be exact) and nearly 600 tackles. Allen finished second to Dwight Freeney with 13 sacks this year, his 9th season as a double-digit sack man in the league.

Defensive line seemed to be the hardest hit position among the retirement wave this past week, with several names beyond Allen coming from the ranks of the DT’s and DE’s. Among the D-linemen who announced their retirements this week we find Dallas’s Larry English, a 9-season veteran with 111 career sacks); DT Jason Fisk of Portland, an 11-year veteran; and Memphis’s Antonio Smith. The TE position also saw two veterans announce, both highly regarded as dual-use ends, able to block and go out into routes. Chicago’s Anthony Fasano played 12 years with the Machine, amassing 4,931 yards, 562 receptions, and 29 touchdowns over his years in Chicago. Oklahoma also announced that TE Chris Cooley would be declaring his retirement after 6 years with the Outlaws. He had also played 8 seasons in New Orleans, retiring with 371 receptions and 37 touchdowns.

Two more names worth noting are Ohio safety Jim Leonhard, who split his career between the Panthers (07-13) and Glory (14-17), and halfback Donald Brown, who came over to the USFL after 5 NFL seasons. Brown had his best season in 2016 with the Oakland Invaders, but sought a chance to be the lead back, moving to Washington in free agency last offseason. In Washington, Brown struggled to fill the shoes of legendary back Deuce McCallister, rushing for only 531 yards this year, being benched for Wendell Smallwood midway through the tough 3-13 season for the Federals. Brown announced he would not return for the 2nd year of his contract, and was retiring due to the physical demands of the halfback position.

Expect more announcements in the weeks to come, particularly among players on playoff teams, as the reality of the season ending and the physical and mental demands of preparing once again for the long rehab and re-training process of the offseason start to kick in. Along with QB Joey Harrington, who was the first player of note to officially declare his retirement, we expect a few more big names to be added to the list, and thus to the potential pool for the Hall of Fame Class of 2022.

Ten Big Free Agents And Where They Would Best Fit

Retirement is not the only roster-impacting aspect of the early offseason. While the Free Agency period for the USFL will not begin until 8 days after Summer Bowl 2017, the pool of players who are now free of their 2017 contracts is filling quickly, with 16 of the league’s 28 clubs already transitioning to offseason mode, and more joining each week as teams are eliminated from postseason play. In most cases these players have already turned down offers to remain with their current clubs and are, at the very least, interested in testing the waters and seeing what is possible. We picked the 10 most notable, likely most in-demand, players already in the pool, and gave some thought to where they should be looking for a deal and an opportunity. Here is our list of 10 current free agents and where we think they should end up.

Knowshon Moreno (HB, ORL)

Easily the biggest name among the tailbacks we expect to be available this offseason. Moreno grew unhappy with his role in Orlando, and with sharing carries with Latavius Murray for much of his career. After several 1,000-yards seasons with Orlando, Moreno, now 29 years old, has had 770 and 760 yards his past two seasons with the Renegades, seeing his carry load drop from 262 in 2015 to only 152 this year. He is looking for a chance to be a true lead back, and to get both his carries and his yardage back to an elite space of 1,000-1,200 yards per year.

Where he Fits: There are no shortage of teams that need to upgrade their run game, but we see two in particular as obvious options: Birmingham and Pittsburgh. The Stallions have just not gotten what they want from former Alabama back T. J. Yeldon, who has yet to crack the 1,000 yard mark in his 3 years with them. For the Maulers, the combo of Marcus Lattimore, Ronny Hillman, and Jay Ajayi (acquired midseason) did not produce results, with the three averaging only 3 yards per carry. They are clearly looking to shift to a 1-back model to provide more of a threat and keep defenders from crashing in on Andy Dalton.

DaJuan Morgan (SS, LA)

One of the best “centerfielders” in the league, Morgan is perhaps on the back end of his career at 32, but the safety position is one that can have good longevity. Morgan had 77 tackles this year with the Express, only 3 away from a 6th 80-tackle season. He might be willing to return to LA if the deal is right, but so far the team and his agent have not reached common ground.

Where He Fits: Assuming Morgan does not return to LA, the teams that could show the most interest are those that prefer his style of deep centerfield coverage over a more aggressive line-of-scrimmage safety like Polamalu in Arizona. So, who fits that bill? How about Charlotte, likely to lose SS Shaun Schillinger to free agency, or Denver, who will need to settle their cap issues, but who certainly want to improve at the safety position.

Justin Blackmon (WR, OHI)

After moving from Dallas to Ohio in 2014, Justin Blackmon established himself as one of the league’s more reliable possession receivers. He went over 1,100 yards this year with 91 receptions. While Blackmon is not going to tear the roof off a defense, his strength is in getting open on short and intermediate routes, something all clubs look for, especially on third down.

Where He Fits: Several clubs are in the market for a reliable 3rd down option, so there will be no shortage of markets for Blackmon. Looking at teams that are in the market for that mid-range threat, we think Atlanta could be a possibility, though their QB situation may deter Blackmon from signing on. Another, perhaps more attractive option, would be Michigan, where the Panthers could see both slot receiver Ted Ginn Jr and mid-range target B. J. Cunningham entering free agency. Going from Ohio to the Panthers will make Blackmon no friends in Columbus, but it won’t be the first time these two teams saw players swap sidelines.

David Bruton (FS, JAX)

More of a hitter than Morgan in LA, Bruton tends to play at his best closer to the line of scrimmage. The current Jacksonville free safety can play either safety position and has a knack for the ball. Snagging 6 picks this season as a career best. Nothing like hitting a big number like that in a contract year. Jacksonville is going to have to purge salary this year (see below), so Bruton’s asking price is likely going to be a non-starter for them.

Where He Fits: We know that Houston HC Wade Phillips loves Bruton’s game, so we could see the Gamblers make a run at the Jacksonville safety. And, with Donte Whitner almost certainly departing the Portland Stags, we think that Portland will be in the mix as well, though they will be at a disadvantage until they get a head coach in position.

Kyle Long (G, OKL)

Guard tends to be a low-attention, low-pricetag position, but we expect a player of Long’s quality to get quite a bit of attention this year. The Outlaw line gets a lot of criticism for the number of sacks that Joe Flacco takes, but that is more of an issue at tackle than with Long. When Oklahoma switched to a power run game late in the season, teams saw how effective Long was as a lead blocker.

Where He Fits: Any team that wants to use power runs will take a look at Long. That likely includes Portland, Denver, Philadelphia, and the Federals. We like Washington as a fit, though they don’t have a back in place to be a power run team, you know that the plan is there to protect David Garrard by establishing the kind of run game they had with Deuce McCallister 2 years ago.

Felix Jones (HB, POR)

Speaking of a power run game, Felix Jones is hoping that Oklahoma’s success with that style of play inspires others to bring in a bigger, more steamroller type of back, like him. He was displaced in Portland by the emergence of former Machine HB Doug Martin, seeing his carries cut nearly in half this year. So, he is in the market for a team that will give him a chance to grind out yards and play in short yardage situations.

Where He Fits: No one expects Jones to get a full-time starting gig after several down seasons, but what might happen is that he may be brought in to help mix carries with a smaller back. If that is the case, then our favorite landing spot for him would be in Baltimore, where neither Kerwynn Williams nor Anthony Dixon are designed to carry the ball 300 times a year. He would be part of a 3-back system, but he would clearly be the big man of the three.

Matt Tenant (C, BIR)

The Stallions have no interest in losing Tenant from the center of their line, but they seem to be miles apart form his agent when it comes to numbers. Tenant could be the highest paid lineman in this year’s pool, largely because we are not seeing any top tier left tackles testing the market.

Where He Fits: Tenant is solid in both pass protection and the run game, so there will be a market. The team that pops out as in need of his talents is New Jersey, where 32-year-old Jon Cooper has not resigned over the course of the season. If, however, the Stallions can find the cap space, we think they will make a solid offer to their center to try to keep him in house.

C. J. Spiller (HB, DAL)

Spiller is a tough sell for many teams. He was so talented at Clemson, but has just not proven to be either reliable or healthy for much of his pro career. Now on the cusp of 30, and with a career high of 742 yards rushing all the way back in 2011, we think that Spiller’s best chance is to combine kick and punt return duties with some 3rd down back snaps.

Where He Fits: Baltimore could be an option if Jaquizz Rogers is let go, as is Birmingham if Danny Woodhead leaves in free agency.

Matthias Kiawanuka (DE, WSH)

This is going to be a tough market for Kiawanuka. He is 31, has already played 11 seasons, and has not sniffed 10 sacks or more in any of them. Not a lot of teams want a guy at the edge position who is solid on the run but takes bad lines when rushing the QB, and that is the story on Kiawanuka’s time in Washington. Perhaps a move to a true 4-3 scheme would help, but those are more and more rare these days.

Where He Fits: If he is honest about his worth, and willing to be paid less than he earned in DC, then he will find a spot, but we could not tell you where.

Ricky Stanzi (QB, STL)

While the market for future franchise QBs is always white hot, the market for “serviceable” backups is quite a bit cooler. Stanzi has been a solid backup, but never really challenged Josh Freeman for the starting gig in St. Louis. His best fit is with a team that wants a veteran backup, someone who can help mentor a young starter and who sees action only when games are out of hand.

Where He Fits: If St. Louis is looking to transition away from Freeman in the next year or two, then Stanzi does not make sense for them. But he could make sense with any team that will have a rookie QB as their starter this year, so possibly he is not signed before the draft shakes out. Otherwise, clubs like Portland (Mariota) or Charlotte (Trubisky) make sense because they are still working with a young starter who could use some veteran guidance.

Buyers & Sellers Could Define Offseason Moves

As much as the offseason is about players, where they fit, and what deal they can get, it is also about team finances. Who has funds to spend on free agents and who is trying to lower their cap number so that their rookies can be signed? It is a dance every offseason, with some teams reworking deals, others letting veterans go, some trading talent for picks, and others accumulating cheaper rookie deals to try to stay legal with the cap. This year we have some really interesting cap numbers. Now, some of this is speculative, especially with the current playoff teams, who have players in the final weeks of deals, but no official free agents yet. The other factor is retirements and their impact on team rosters. When we look across the league, we see something very interesting. If things shake out the way we expect, some of this year’s playoff teams could also be the most flush in the offseason, while some of the teams struggling for wins are also struggling with bloated contracts and a lack of cap space.

Let’s start with the potential “buyers”, teams that should have significant cap room and who could snap up free agents without concern for their rookie draft class being adequately funded. Right now, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans look like the teams in the best position, each with between $10M-$18M available without any restructuring or deal extensions needed. But, there could be a team lurking in the background. Arizona is in pretty solid shape, with decent cap room right now, but they also have some seriously veteran players, particularly on defense. If some of their higher cost defenders, players like LB Karlos Dansby, S Troy Polamalu or DE Adam Carriker choose to retire, we could see the 15-1 Wranglers with $15M or more in accessible cap space. Of course, with that cap space also come needs across the roster, because they would be losing a lot of leadership and a lot of production, but from the look of it, they would have the cash available to spend big to restock the armory.

On the other side of the spectrum, there are several teams with real cap dilemmas. Denver, Oklahoma, and Jacksonville are right on the edge right now, and will need to either cut loose some big contracts or work them into extensions that shift the cap load to future years. Even worse off are the Vipers and Stags, who are currently $2M-$4M over the cap based on next year’s numbers for their current deals. That means that they both need to free up a minimum of $5M in cap space just to have adequate funds to sign 4-6 draft picks, much less any veteran free agents. Expect something of a yard sale in both cities, with expensive players being swapped in trade for lower-cost deals. That, combined with significant contract renegotiation, is the primary path available to these clubs to get back in the black and to have any shot at signing needed players.

Expect some deals, some cuts, and some new contracts among the teams in danger, and expect a lot of signings and picks for player trades among the teams with money to spend, because as much as it is about the players on the market, it is equally about the teams coming to market with or without money to spend.

10-6 NEW JERSEY (4) @ 14-2 HOUSTON (1)

Saturday, July 9 @ 3pm ET

NRG Stadium, Houston ,TX

Gamblers -6

For the Generals, the win over Baltimore was a very nice step, and seeing QB Nick Foles play efficient football was exactly why Coach Turner made the midseason switch from Brett Hundley. But, as good as that game must have felt for the Generals, things are about to get real this week. Houston has been a juggernaut all season, blowing through the league with a top flight offense and a defense that can put real pressure on opposing QBs. It will be no easy task to go into NRG Stadium and get a road win.

For Houston the key will be Colt McCoy and his ability to play on a knee that was clearly not back to 100% in his surprise appearance Week 16. He has had a week to rest the knee, and he will be wearing a brace, but we still expect Houston to try to take pressure off of McCoy by finding ways to put the ball in the hands of HB Carlos Hyde. If Hyde can produce in the run game, then McCoy will face far less pressure from Beasley and Kampman, and Houston’s highly dangerous deep ball attack can be a factor.

OUR PICK: If McCoy were out, we might give the Generals a fare chance in this game, but even if he is only at 80-90%, that gives Houston the edge, and we think he is healthier than that. We have to go with the 14-2 Gamblers here. Houston 31-21 in a game that Houston wins on both sides of the ball.

9-7 SEATTLE (6) @ 12-4 MICHIGAN (2)

Saturday, June 9 @ 8pm ET

Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Michigan -4

No team has been hotter in the season’s second half than the Seattle Dragons, and yet, when we look at their roster, we worry that it is all somehow a mirage. The Dragons are not great in the run game, averaging only 83.8 yards per game. Their defense struggles to contain the run, giving up 110 yards a game, and while they are excellent at bending without breaking, this matchup looks like a tough one for them.

The reason we think Michigan is a bad matchup for Seattle is quite simple, they do well in the areas where Seattle struggles. Seattle is 27th in the league against the run, enter LeVeon Bell and one of the best, most-consistent run games in the league. They are not particularly strong at running the ball, and Michigan features a defense that just does not allow backs any space. Add in the experience of Kirk Cousins vs. the playoff novelty of Jacoby Brissett and we think this one could get ugly unless Seattle really does have some magic in them.

OUR PICK: It is pretty obvious we are going with Michigan here. We think Bell has a big game and the Panthers do to. Panthers 27-16

9-7 NEW ORLEANS (6) @ 13-3 PHILADELPHIA (2)

Sunday, June 10 @ 1pm ET

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia PA

Philadelphia -6

Now this one should be fun. We have two very good defenses, two very good quarterbacks, and two stars in the making in Stars’ HB Derrick “King” Henry and Breaker’s wideout Jordy Nelson. Philadelphia boasts the 4th best scoring offense, largely built on the running of Henry to set up the pass. They also have allowed only 17.4 points per game. New Orleans, for their part, has one of the game’s most diverse and complex passing games, led by the savvy and very accurate Drew Brees. Their defense is allowing less than 80 yards per game on the ground, and they just don’t give up a lot of big plays, making teams earn their points with long drives. In other words, this could be a real slugfest between two teams that are solid from top to bottom.

OUR PICK: We love Drew Brees’s confidence and swagger, but the Breakers were 9-7 for a reason. They lack a true stud in the backfield, with rookie Leonard Fournette struggling to gain 700 yards his first year in the pros. They also struggle to be consistent, evident in losses to teams like Dallas and Birmingham. Philadelphia is also 13-3 for a reason, and that is the coaching and confidence that Jim Harbaugh brings to the team. We think Philadelphia withstands Brees’s passing attack and finds a way to win the game late. Stars 23-20.

9-7 LAS VEGAS (5) @ 15-1 ARIZONA (1)

Sunday, June 10 @ 6pm ET

University of Phoenix Stadium,

Glendale, AZ

Arizona -9

Call it David vs. Goliath, or just the 5-seed vs. the 15-1 top seed, but this game looks and feels like the most lopsided of the week. Arizona can beat you so many ways, though they prefer to crush your spirit with their defense and then break your heart with the deep ball. David Carr is a likely back-to-back MVP, in Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Bryant, and TE Jimmie Graham he has a receiver group that simply makes defenses look bad. Then you add in the Wrangler D and this team looks very much the favorite to repeat as champions. So, what does Las Vegas need to do to pull out a win in Glendale? Well, they need Eli Manning to be the QB who got Memphis to the Summer Bowl last year and played well against Arizona in that game. They need former Breaker Jeremy Hill to blow us away in the run game, and they need their defense to do what no one has done in a few years, avoid Arizona making big plays.

OUR PICK: Yup, we are going with the obvious pick here, but, c’mon, who isn’t? Arizona 30-17 in a game dominated by David Carr and that passing game.