2018 USFL Season Preview: Western Conference
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Are you ready for some more preseason prep? We have the Wild West on hand for you, and while the Eastern Conference won the title last year, we think the West may have won the offseason. All 4 of the top 7 QBs taken in the draft and signed by USFL teams are in the West, an infusion of talent and excitement from St. Louis (Jackson) to Portland (Lauletta) with stopovers in Denver (Allen) and OKC (Rudolph). It is a conference with a lot of teams in flux. Arizona could be weakened by a massive defensive exodus. San Diego and Michigan look very strong. Seattle, Ohio, Las Vegas and Denver look like they are ready for a fight. This could truly be a very wild season out West. Let’s get right to that with our 3 big stories from the offseason, and then get to the previews and the predictions.
TheThree Biggest Stories in the West
3--Oakland’s Frustrating QB Search Comes Home
It was a long and difficult winter for Oakland Invader fans. With the July announcement from QB Joey Harrington that he had played his last game as a pro, Oakland had a clear need to find a new starter, hopefully a new franchise QB who could lead the team for years to come. It was a good year to do so, with seven rookie QBs considered potential 1st or 2nd round picks. But it was a frustrating situation for the Invaders, because 2 of the top 5 quarterbacks in the draft had their rights held by division rivals. Oakland was in early negotiations with both the Philadelphia Stars and Oklahoma Outlaws to try to get the rights to select either Louisville’s Lamar Jackson or Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, but on both counts they were out-hustled by another team, St. Louis and Washington respectively.
With no topflight QBs in the USFL free agent pool, the Invaders continued to look for options. They reached out to Chicago about Ryan Fitzpatrick, with Tampa Bay about Dak Prescott, and with Pittsburgh about Kevin Hogan, but none of their efforts found success. When Denver jumped up to the second spot in the draft, it was clear that Wyoming QB Josh Allen would not last until their 6th pick. But, there was hope. San Diego never traded away the rights to select UCLA QB Josh Rosen in the league’s territorial draft, so Oakland fans started lobbying hard for the Invaders to select the Bruin QB. When the first round of the open draft came, everyone and their uncle had Rosen going to the Invaders with pick number 6. When the card went up and the commissioner announced that the Invaders had selected Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, social media blew up. Fans were irate, pundits were dumbfounded. They all agreed that Nelson was a great player, ready to be an NFL starter on day one, but Oakland needed a QB and time was running out. Fans lashed out at ownership, at the GM, even at newly signed head coach Gary Kubiak, who had not even unpacked his bags yet, much less made key personnel decisions.
All that was left was the NFL-USFL transfer window. Within the recently released NFL free agent list were several QBs who had served as starters at some point in their careers. Fans immediately started to pick their favorites, some pushing for former Viking Teddy Bridgewater, others for former NY Jets draft pick Geno Smith, but the loudest group was not looking far from home at all, calling for the Invaders to sign former New England Patriot and San Francisco 49er Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo, who had played well for the 49ers in the same stadium where the Invaders played, was a known commodity, and a player who many believed had been unfairly saddled with the losses that a pretty shoddy 49er team had put up. When Oakland announced that Garoppolo would be staying in the Bay Area but changing leagues by becoming an Invader, once again social media blew up.
While for many, Garoppolo signing with Oakland was a desperate effort that would likely produce a stagnant franchise for the next few years, with many calling Garoppolo overrated and underwhelming. For others, however, it was the best possible result for the Invaders, getting a veteran presence with good physical skills at a price far below what any of the rookie QBs would have demanded. The fans in favor of the Garoppolo signing cited other team needs and the ability to work within the cap for the tenure of their new QB’s 3-year deal. Whether or not the naysayers or the optimists are correct about Oakland’s offseason strategy and their eventual choice at QB, the proof will be on the field as to whether Oakland played a tough hand well or went all in with a bad set of cards.
2—Oklahoma Deals Marques Colston to the Thunder
From the very onset of the offseason there were rumors that Oklahoma would be willing to trade some of their star talent, with theories abounding that they wanted to offload some of their biggest stars from the Texas years before the 2020 expansion, when a new team in San Antonio could claim former Texas Outlaws in a special expansion roster raid of Oklahoma. Mentions of HB Marshawn Lynch, LB Chad Greenway, QB Joe Flacco and WR Marques Colston being on the trading block were everywhere. And teams did inquire. There was certainly interest in all 4 players, with several teams asking about Flacco’s availability. But, while most of the rumors were just that, the team was open to discussions, and when the right deal came to them, they took it.
Marques Colston, a 4-time league leader in receiving yards (2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015) and 7-time All-USFL selection, would be traded away, sent to San Diego for a pair of draft picks. The move gave Texas some cap room and some draft capital, and it gave the Thunder an immediate high-end replacement for retired superstar Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson. But is it the beginning of a litany of departures for the next 3 seasons? Is Oklahoma trying to outwit the league and the upcoming San Antonio franchise by selling off their best players from those who were with the team in 2016? One trade does not make a pattern, but as we look ahead, if we start to see more former Texas players headed off, traded piece by piece so that they cannot be part of a new Texas franchise’s expansion plans, well, then we will know if Oklahoma is playing chess when the league set up a checker board.
1—St. Louis & Denver Surprise With Bold QB Moves
We all thought we knew who the players would be in the 2018 QB Draft Class Derby. It would be teams without a clear franchise QB, or with an uncertain future, teams like Oakland, Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Washington. We might see Portland make a run after struggling to develop Marcus Mariota, or LA move on from Sam Bradford to pick the prime candidate in their own back yard (USC’s Sam Darnold). And while there were some pundits out there who noted that the pool of QB-hungry teams was likely much larger, few directly named either the Skyhawks or the Denver Gold as serious contenders, and yet, for very much the same reason, both proved to be very much in the mix.
In both cases, the Gold and ‘Hawks are looking at a QB situation that could be very different in a year’s time. Josh Freeman has not been the same over the past few years, certainly not the MVP caliber QB we saw back in 2012, and not has not completed a full season since that 2012 campaign, missing half of the 2014 and 2015 seasons to injury and missing 7 games last year. In Denver, the issue has not been injury, but a combination of Matt Leinart’s age (he will turn 35 midseason this year) and a growing sense that while he is certainly a solid option at QB, he is not the option to take Denver above their usual status of a 9 or 10-win team that is eliminated early in the playoffs. After missing the playoffs in both 2015 and 2016, the Gold returned with a 9-6-1 record last year, but once again were one-and-done after losing to the Vipers 29-13. It marked the 4th consecutive playoff appearance (going back to 2012) in which Denver appeared as a Wild Card and lost their initial playoff game. And so, we had two teams who were both unsure of the future for their current QB and growing in doubts about that QB’s ability to get them to a title.
This double concern, duration and production, led both the Gold and the Skyhawks to make bold moves. They got to the trading block and made offers for T-Draft picks that would ensure them a chance to select their top choice of the rookie QBs on hand. They then did the work to turn that selection into a signed contract. While Washington was unable to outbid the NFL Browns for OU QB Baker Mayfield, Chicago could not seal the deal on USC QB Sam Darnold, and Jacksonville could not outbid the NFL Cardinals on Open Draft selection Josh Rosen, both the Gold and the Skyhawks got their QB prospects to sign on the dotted line.
The plan in Denver seems pretty straightforward. Matt Leinart will start the season as the coaching staff works with former Wyoming QB Josh Allen on his accuracy and route recognitions, two areas the tall, athletic QB needs to improve. Then, with Leinart likely to retire at the end of 2018, Allen is prepared to step in next year. In St. Louis the situation could run that same way, or we could see Lamar Jackson take the field this year, particularly if once again injuries impact Josh Freeman’s year.
St. Louis allowed backup Ricky Stanzi to depart for New Jersey in free agency, so Jackson is already penciled in as the backup to Freeman. It is also expected that with Jackson’s running ability, we may see some “Wildcat” style packages with him, as well as some possible short yardage option plays written into the script even in the early part of the season, something we do not anticipate Coach Hufnagel doing with Allen in Denver.
The story of the 2018 offseason was very much about the QB position, but it was also about who could make the big move to not only select a top quality rookie QB, but who could get them to sign on. When all was said and done, it was St. Louis and Denver (and to a lesser degree Portland and Oklahoma with Lauletta and Rudolph) who came out the victors in one of the wildest rookie QB free-for-alls since the early 1980’s.
10 PLAYERS TO WATCH IN THE WEST
We have given you our 10 Eastern Conference players to keep an eye on. Only fair we do the same with the West. Whether they are NFL imports, free agents moving between USFL franchises, or fresh-faced rookies joining the pro ranks, the Western Conference has had its share of big moves, and potential game-changing players added to its 14 clubs. Our original list had over 15 players who we thought could make an immediate impact, but we only gave the East 10, so we trimmed and came up with this list. Here are the 10 new faces we think will be worth keeping an eye on this year.
WR Eric Weems, Ohio, Free Agent
An undervalued talent in St. Louis, Weems had put up 1,000-yard seasons in both 2014 and 2016 before a season-ending injury limited his 2017 to only 3 games. Last season was a contract year for Weems, and St. Louis, concerned about the long-term impact of his injury as well as their own cap issues (and QB pursuit) opted to let him walk. Ohio, having lost Justin Blackmon to free agency themselves, and very much interested in adding a deep threat, added Weems and now hopes he can step in as a player who can add more vertical aspects to the Glory passing game.
QB Lamar Jackson, St. Louis, Trade in T-Draft
We don’t know how and when we will see the 2016 Heisman winner enter games. It could be in specific packages presented in games, or in mop up duty, or it could be that he gets the chance to start at some point this season, but when he does get on the field, keep your eyes on him. Many believe he can be the most effective ballcarrier in the QB position since Jake Plummer (or Michael Vick for those who also follow the NFL).
WR Sammy Watkins, Dallas, NFL Import
The former Buffalo Bill entered the NFL with a lot of expectations after a stellar career at Clemson. He had some moments early on, but not often enough for the Bills to hold onto him. He left for the Rams, who gave him a shot, but they too let him go. Dallas is hoping tha the third time is the charm. Their receiver group lacked explosiveness and Watkins has potential to bring that, but consistency and separation are two areas Dallas will need to emphasize if they want Watkins to reach his potential.
HB Kareem Hunt, Las Vegas, NFL Import
There is no doubt that Kareem Hunt has the talent to be a star in the USFL. His performance in the NFL was more than enough to prove that. But, the reason he was let go by the NFL Browns is the same reason why he may be a concern in the spring. Video footage of what authorities are calling partner violence, a form of domestic violence, produced a backlash in Cleveland and led to the talented halfback being let go. Few teams pursued Hunt, anticipating both backlash from their own fanbase and potential suspension. And while the USFL has not ruled on any potential sanctions on Hunt, and fans in Las Vegas have given him something of a mixed welcome, the expectation is that as Hunt’s legal issues proceed, he may well face suspension by the league. Until then, he is expected to be a significant factor in the Viper offense.
WR Stevie Johnson, St. Louis, Free Agent
“Brash, outspoken, and very happy with himself”, that description, provided by Stars’ head coach Jim Harbaugh, could describe about half of the starting wideouts in the league, and yet it seems particularly apropos for Stevie Johnson. Johnson moves on after some very strong years in Philadelphia, years in which he put up 1,400 yards once and over 1,200 last year. But a series of injuries and some clashes with his coach and his quarterback made him available, and St. Louis, having let Eric Weems go, opted to spend some of their newfound cap money on Johnson, hoping to get the best of what he provided in Philly.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Oakland, NFL Import
We have already reported on the twists and turns of Oakland’s offseason, and while Garoppolo is not expected to start until at least Week 3 as he takes time to recover from the NFL season and to learn the new Gary Kubiak offense, we do anticipate that the new NFL import will be established as the starter before too long. He has some nice weapons in Oakland, particularly wideout Davante Adams and HB Christian McCaffrey, so it will be interesting to see what he can do with them as he transitions to the spring season.
S Tyrann Mathieu, Ohio, NFL Import
We love the Honey Badger’s style of play. It is aggressive without being out of control, it is both ball hawking and hard hitting, and we think the folks in Columbus are going to fall in love with this NFL import. The Glory have lacked personality since the end of their amazing run in the early 2000’s, and personality is something that Mathieu brings to the team in abundance.
HB Knowshon Moreno, Seattle, Free Agent
Despite the fact that C. J. Anderson had some very good games in Seattle’s unlikely run from 0-5 to a Wild Card spot last year, the club still wanted more, and they think they have found it in Moreno. Though the former Renegade has not had a 1,000-yard season since 2015, his per carry average in both 2016 (4.9) and 2017 (5.0) have led the league, a fact which tells us that when he is given the ball he produces with it.
CB Patrick Peterson, Dallas, Free Agent
Perhaps the best defender available in this season’s Free Agent pool, Peterson is a true shutdown corner who will make life much easier for new Dallas head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Peterson can take away the opposition’s best receiver, and, if the offense does not respect that, he can then take the ball away. Dallas has had significant defensive issues ever since they relocated from Boston, but in Peterson they are putting someone on the field who can turn the tide and help the Roughnecks become a team no OC wants to face.
WR Marques Colston, San Diego, Trade from Oklahoma
Look, there is not much more we can say about Marques Colston that you don’t already know. He is perhaps the best receiver in the league and has been for years. Having won the receiving title 4 times in the past decade, having been a 7-time All-USFL selection and having been in the running for OPOTY on multiple occasions, there is no denying Colston is the real deal. Now, he is 33 years old, and he may not be the 1,700-yard receiver he was in the past, but we have no doubt that he makes the San Diego attack better, and, as much as Chad Johnson may have felt he was an irreplaceable part of the Thunder attack, in signing Colston, the Thunder may have done the best replacement we have seen in a long time from one future Hall of Famer to another.
We kick off our divisional previews with the same format as with the East, taking a look at potential break out players this season, rookies who could start fast, and then our best guess at what each division will look like as we take out the crystal ball and imagine the season ahead. Let’s kick it off with the division that gave us the 2017 league champion, the Central.
The Michigan Panthers rolled through the Central last season, winning the division by 4 games. Ohio managed to reach .500 with a solid final quarter at the end of the year, but missed out on the playoffs at 8-8. Chicago fell well short of expectations at 6-10 and St. Louis went into freefall, dropping to 3-13, but it has been a very active offseason and each club is hoping their combination of moves has set them up for success in 2018. Will it be enough success to catch up to the Panthers? That is the question for the three other squads all chasing the 2018 Champs.
Four Potential Breakout Players
Chicago TE Tyler Eifert
The Machine did not get the QB they wanted, failing to outbid the NY Jets on USC’s Sam Darnold, but they feel that they still have a solid offense, and they added an important piece in a TE who could be a safety valve and a threat over the middle. Eifert comes over from Las Vegas, stepping into Anthony Fasano’s spot with the long-time Chicago TE retiring this past offseason.
Chicago FS Micah Hyde
A second Machine player on our list but not a new one for the Machine. Hyde was a 2016 draft pick of the Machine, starting all 32 games since then. Last year he got his first pick and finished the year with 4 to go with 55 tackles. This year he was named a team captain and there is a lot of expectation that with that honor will come even greater on-field results.
Michigan DE Dee Ford
Another former Viper shipped off due to cap issues, Ford will take over in the spot held by Michael Bennett last year. This will be Ford’s 5th season. After an 8-sack rookie campaign , Ford’s numbers have slipped the past 3 years. Michigan is hoping that he can not only rebound in a new system, but get over the 10-sack hump and become a major factor in their defensive front.
Ohio WR Curtis Samuel
With Eric Weems stepping into the starting lineup opposite Mario Manningham, Ohio is hoping that the slot can be more of a weapon as well. Samuel had a pretty uneventful rookie campaign, catching only 17 balls for 161 yards and 1 score. His coaches say he has had a strong offseason, is ready to take a step up, and is going to be targeted more by QB Christian Hackenberg.
Four Rookies in a Good Position for Early Success
Michigan FS Kyzir White
We already mentioned WR Calvin Ridley as a potential first year standout for the Panthers, but we should not skip over White, who has won the starting job at the free safety position. There will certainly be a learning curve for the former Mountaineer, but Coach McDermott likes the physical skills he brings to the position.
Ohio FB Mike Boone
Why focus on a fullback? Well, in the case of Boone, a former Cincinnati Bearcat, the reason is twofold. Firstly, he will be a key element of the type of power run game that Ohio wants to run, focused on inside one-cut runs from Isaiah Pead and Marion Mack, but also because Boone can be an effective receiver, as he showed at Cincinnati, a safety valve for Hackenberg to use when his pocket breaks down.
St. Louis LB Roquan Smith
When you are the overall first pick in the draft, you are expected to have an immediate impact, and in the case of Roquan Smith and the Skyhawks, that impact is sorely needed. St. Louis had one of the worst defenses in the league last year, so adding a big-hit linebacker like Smith is considered a key to them returning to relevance in the division.
St. Louis HB Gus Edwards
Our second Skyhawk on this list, Edwards will be an important part of the St. Louis offense for the simple reason that Eddie Lacy simply cannot be counted on for 300 carries a season. Lacy will remain the lead back, but Edwards will get his chances to contribute early in the year, and likely will pick up even more carries in the season’s second half.
Our Predicted CEN Division Standings
Michigan Panthers 11-5
When we look across the division, we just don’t see a team that seems like obvious competition for the defending champs. The Panthers added some good young pieces through the draft, and their core remained largely intact in the offseason. We think that still makes them the class of the division and the likely division winner.
Ohio Glory 9-7
Ohio fought to reach .500 last year, and we think they may do the same this year. The Glory very much feel like a team that is taking baby steps towards building a solid roster and a solid season. We like the addition Weems to the receiver group, but when we look at the entire offense, there is just not a fear factor here. We think 8-9 wins is still just about the ceiling here.
Chicago Machine 7-9
The Machine had a huge swing and a miss looking for a QB. Now Ryan Fitzpatrick is back and with a chip on his shoulder. Will that be enough for the Machine to become a contender? It will take more than even a strong Fitz-magic season to get over the hump. The defense still needs to prove itself and leaders need to step up to hold them accountable when they don’t live up to their own expectations.
St. Louis Skyhawks 5-11
Coach Frank Reich had a rough first season. The hope, of course, is that the future is going to be brighter. This year could very much be a transitional season as Reich tries to form the team he wants as part of his 3-year plan. We fully expect that transition to occur at QB at some point this year, with Lamar Jackson clearly the future for the franchise.
While Arizona raced out to a 15-1 regular season last year, there was a heated competition behind them for playoff spots, with Denver, Las Vegas, and Oklahoma all in the mix. This year Dallas could also be part of the story. There is a lot of anticipation that with their defense largely gutted in the offseason, Arizona will fall back to the pack, and it is a pretty ravenous pack that awaits them.
Four Potential Breakout Players
Arizona LB Scooby Wright
The player who seems perfectly poised to become a leader on this defense is 3rd year backer Scooby Wright. He is a motor guy, an example of what hard work and a spirit of competition will do. With less pure talent on the defense, that attitude is going to be key if Arizona wants to remain king of the hill in the division.
Dallas DE Connor Barwin
Barwin had 12 sacks in his first year with Dallas, but was largely unseen as the Roughnecks struggled on defense overall. Now, with Mathias Kiawanuka now added at the RE spot, Barwin could have even more success, and more sacks. Offenses are going to have to scheme for him and Kiawanuka, and that should mean fewer double teams.
Denver LB Patrick Onwuasor
What a leap the Denver linebacker had in his 2nd season. From 15 tackles as a rookie Omwuasor jumped up to 75 last season. He got his first USFL pick and sack last year, and now he is shifting from the strong side to the MLB spot. With Shaquile Barrett and Harold Landry on the outside, the goal will be to funnel backs towards Omwuasor, and that could be the sign that the 3rd year linebacker is ready to reach for 100 tackles.
Oklahoma WR DeDe Westbrook
It is absolutely unfair to try to expect Westbrook to replace Marques Colston. It is a lot to ask for a 2nd year receiver who had only 26 targets and 13 receptions last year. Coach Landry loves his physical qualities, but there will be a big learning curve and a lot of attention on Westbrook’s growth this year. If he is up to the challenge, he could become a favorite for Joe Flacco.
Four Rookies in a Good Position for Early Success
Arizona LB Malik Jefferson
If Scooby Wright is going to be the heart of a new Arizona defense, then Jefferson has to be its fist. The goal is to be a hard-hitting defense, a takeaway-producing defense, and Jefferson is going to have a shot to make a huge impact, already earning the starting spot.
Denver HB Phillip Lindsay
Yes, all we are hearing out of Denver is that fans are excited about QB Josh Allen, but at least for this year we are expecting to see a lot more of HB Phillip Lindsay. Starter DeMarco Murray is not a 300-carry back, and Lindsay can supply some burst that can turn short gains into long gains.
Las Vegas LB Fred Warner
The Vipers had to purge a lot of talent due to their bad cap situation, so they are trying to rebuild or reload without dropping out of a playoff hunt. Warner is a player they are going to count on to step in right away. He will rotate with DeAndre Levy at MLB to begin the year, but we expect that as the season moves along, it will be Warner who becomes the central pivot person for the Vegas 4-3.
Oklahoma TE Mark Andrews
Andrews came into camp as a possible 3rd TE but has been challenging Julius Thomas for the starting job since he arrived. He has good routes, great hands, and can block as well. While Coach Landry gave the advantage and the starting gig to Thomas in the end, it was close all the way through camp and we could see a lot of Andrews to see if his gameday production matches what the Outlaws saw in the preseason.
Our Predicted SW Division Standings
Arizona Wranglers 11-5
As much as we still love the explosiveness of the Arizona offense, you cannot deny that this defense will take time to gel, and may never be as good as the one the Wranglers had the past few years. We think that means that the Wranglers fall back to the pack in what could be a very competitive and balanced division.
Denver Gold 10-6
We see the efforts to land Josh Allen as a clear shot across the bow for Matt Leinart. Now, it may be that Leinart already told Denver that he sees 2018 as his swan song season, or maybe he didn’t and they are just planning for the inevitable, but in either case, Leinart should be motivated to make this year special, and we think that, along with a pretty solid team up and down the roster, gives Denver the best shot to challenge Arizona’s division dominance.
Las Vegas Vipers 9-7
We could be underselling the Vipers, or we could be overvaluing their stars. They lost a lot of talent due to cap purges this offseason, and while there is a lot of potential, especially if HB Kareem Hunt can avoid a league suspension for the issues that arose out of his time in the NFL, perhaps they can go further than this. We think that keeping them about where they were last year is the best compromise between our Viper optimists and the skeptics.
Oklahoma Outlaws 8-8
We like how the Outlaws finished 2017, but losing Marques Colston is a big hit. They still have Flacco and Lynch, and their newfound emphasis of a smashmouth style of offense could help them avoid a major letdown with Colston gone, but this is a team that does not feel like they made strides forward so much as avoided sliding backwards in the offseason.
Dallas Roughnecks 7-9
We said this division was balanced, so having 3 teams within 1 game of .500 seems about right to us. The Roughnecks could finish almost anywhere in the division because they have the talent to do more than they have, but are also in the process of adjusting to a new coaching staff under Kliff Kingsbury. They got some nice additions in CB Patrick Peterson, WR Sammy Watkins and rookie Courtland Sutton, but learning a new system takes time and we think Dallas will have some growing pains under Kingsbury in the coach’s first pro gig.
San Diego was the clear favorite coming out of last year, in large part because the division feels very much like one in transition. Seattle surprised us with a huge run late to snag a playoff spot, while LA let the same Wild Card berth slip right out of their hands. Oakland struggled without Joey Harrington and now moves into a new era with an NFL import likely to be their new starter at the position. Portland? Well, let’s just say they have not really found themselves yet. While we think there could be some shuffling in the middle of the division standings, we still expect to see the Thunder on top and the Stags at the bottom.
Four Potential Breakout Players
Los Angeles SS David Bruton
This one feels a bit like we are cheating, after all, David Bruton finished 2017 with 6 picks and was voted to the All-USFL roster, so while he may not be a household name across the nation, he is well-recognized within the league as one of the best in the game. Last year was a break out season for him, but we expect that in LA he will get a lot of notice for the level of play he presents each week.
Oakland TE Zach Ertz
Ertz has been underutilized in Oakland, averaging only 38 catches per year while splitting time in a TE rotation with Austin Hooper. Oakland’s new head coach Gary Kubiak seems to want a much more prominent role for the talented receiving end, so we expect a big jump in production in 2018, especially as Jimmy Garoppolo adjusts to the spring game.
Portland CB A. J. Bouye
Another undervalued player, Bouye was better known for his return skills in Pittsburgh than for his coverage. And while Portland will certainly want him involved in the return game, they have penciled in Bouye as a starter at corner. We expect to see Bouye’s role provide him with far more opportunities to show what he can do in coverage, and Coach LaFleur has already praised his style of play and his ability to turn pass defenses into picks.
Seattle WR John Brown
An NFL import with a pretty hum-drum name but a pretty flashy game. Brown played 4 seasons with the Cardinals, his best being 2015, when he racked up 1,003 yards and 7 touchdowns. Seattle wants to use him in the slot, which makes for his 5’10”, 179 lb frame. We think he could be a dynamic playmaker in underneath routes. He is quick off the ball and has great cutting skills.
Four Rookies in a Good Position for Early Success
Los Angeles WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
At 6’4” and 206 lbs, Valdes-Scantling could be a red zone favorite for Sam Bradford and the Express. He also has good speed and can go up and catch high throws, both skills the Express could make good use of. We expect the rookie to be a swing receiver, particularly behind Demaryius Thomas, but he should get some looks early on as Coach Reid tries to find way to make use of his physical frame.
Oakland G Quenton Nelson
Considered the most pro-ready player in the draft this year, Nelson is already set to start at left guard, and with All-USFL guard Logan Mankins at RG as a mentor, we think Nelson is in a great position to be immediately effective, which will be great news for both HB Christian McCaffrey and the Oakland QBs.
Portland CB Taron Johnson
Johnson has impressed the coaches early on and will start the season as the nickel corner for the Stags. In camp and in last week’s preseason win over Birmingham, Johnson has looked very good in coverage and also made some big plays against the run, proving he can be effective if teams run against the nickel formation.
Seattle SS Terrell Edmunds
Seattle had a big hole to fill when Shaun Schillinger left in free agency, but they feel good about what they have seen from the Virginia Tech safety and have already penciled him in over veteran Keanu Neal as the starter in Schillinger’s old position. Edmunds is expected to play more of a center-fielder role, with Donte Whitner more likely to come up to the line more often, but in that role, Edmunds will have a vital role in preventing big chunk plays in the passing game.
Our Predicted PAC Division Standings
San Diego 11-5
We are going to pick the Thunder to repeat as champions and to potentially knock Arizona out of the top two seeds, claiming a bye for themselves. The acquisition of Marques Colston is a huge plus for the offense, but it was not the only good move for the Thunder this offseason. Adding Henry Melton to back up Ngata at the nose is a nice addition, and adding some solid O-line depth with rookies Quessenberry and Miller is a great help to the offense. San Diego feels like a team that had marked improvement over the Winter, which could separate them from many Pacific Division rivals.
Seattle 10-6
We are still high on the Dragons after their amazing run last season. And while the loss of Schillinger was a tough one, if rookie Terrell Edmunds has a strong rookie campaign, then the Dragon secondary could be one of the best in the league. They already have the best 1-2 cornerback combo with Richard Sherman and Xavien Howard. On offense, the addition of Knowshon Moreno provides them with a great 1-2 punch as he teams up with C. J. Anderson to allow Seattle to play ball-control football. If San Diego stumbles, we think Seattle will be right at their heels.
Oakland 8-8
It may take a while to get all the pieces working together but we think Oakland made a good choice in bringing in NFL QB Jimmy Garoppolo to provide some stability. We love what Christian McCaffrey offers the offense, and the receiver group led by Davante Adams could prove to be quite solid if Coach Kubiak can establish a solid run-pass balance. On defense, the arrival of Michael Bennett from Michigan should make Cliff Avril even better at LE. Bobby Wagner also got help with Junior Galette coming in from the NFL. Oakland could rebound quickly as last year was a bit of a fluke with Harrington out to injury.
Los Angeles 6-10
We keep waiting for Andy Reid to repeat the magic we saw in the NFL and so far it just has not happened. They have solid talent on offense but it just has not produced the kind of scoring threat we expected. LA needs a lot more out of their receivers if they want to improve their production. On defense, the pass rush is not impressive, and that means more is asked of the LB group. LA got caught for a lot of big plays last year because they could not get to the QB fast enough, and we are not seeing enough potential for that to be different this year. A 10-loss 2018 campaign and LA could offer Reid the chance to return to the NFL in 2019.
Portland 5-11
We think Portland will be improved on defense with the arrival of A. J. Bouye and rookie Taron Johnson in the secondary, but we are still not sold on whether or not their passing game will improve. You ask our bullpen of USFL gurus and half think that rookie Kyle Lauletta could be the starter by season’s end, which means they think Mariota is going to continue to struggle. Losing Brian Quick in trade for Bouye does not help that situation, but the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders from Seattle does bring the potential for more deep balls. All in all, we are picking Portland for slight improvement, but until their QB situation is significantly better, we cannot move them out of the Pacific Division basement.
CAN THE ROAR REPEAT?
Offseason Assessment: The Panthers lost a couple of important pieces from their D, namely DE Michael Bennett (FA) and Kenny Phillips (Ret), but feel like they have made some good additions as well, particularly with their drafting of two good safety prospects in Kyzir White and Tarvarius Moore. They also are liking what they see from WR Calvin Ridley, who they have put in the slot. They traded for Dee Ford to fill the hole at RE, opposite Justin Tuck, so a pretty good job of fixing the issues the offseason brought on.
Team Philosophy: The defending champs are not going to change a formula that works. Run the ball with LeVeon Bell, setting up play action for Kirk Cousins, and keep the game in front of them on defense. The Panther 4-3 ideally can get pressure from their DE combo of Justin Tuck and Dee Ford, and that will free up Sean Porter and the LB group to support pass coverage and create few options for quarterbacks.
2018 Outlook: The defending champs look very much like a team that can still compete for the title, which means a repeat is not out of the question. Of course, every one will be gunning for the Panthers, so the road to a 5th title will not be an easy one, but the Panthers still seem like a team that is a couple of steps ahead of their division mates, and that could help them propel themselves to a high seed in the playoffs.
GLORIOUS PURPOSE
Offseason Assessment: The Glory did not offer us much in the offseason until the final month, when they surprised everyone by opening up the safe and stealing away the Honey Badger from the NFL free agent pool. That one addition will likely be the most talked-about change in the Ohio roster, though we also think that adding Eric Weems to the offense was another shrewd addition.
Team Philosophy: The joke is that Ohio’s strategy is to bore the opposition into submission, and it is true that the offense lacks true explosiveness, but the goal for Ohio is to sustain drives, eat clock, shorten games, and allow their defense to stay fresh. The defense, for their part, relies on Robert Quinn and Kamerion Wemberley to pressure QBs into throwing into heavy zones, much as Michigan does. Slow and steady seems to be the motto of the Glory on both sides of the ball.
2018 Outlook: Ohio is not a flashy team, but they have good depth, and they can win a lot of games when their game plan works out. What is perhaps troubling is that this is clearly a team built to grind out wins, so if they fall behind, we are not sure they have the firepower to overcome deficits. In a league where points often come in runs, we are not sure where Ohio’s quick strike ability would come from.
GEARING UP FOR 2018
Offseason Assessment: The Machine made a bold move early, trading with LA to try to land Sam Darnold. It did not work, and the 2018 Machine looks very much like the 2017 squad. That cannot be considered a win for ownership. Getting Mike Kafka back in Chicago and adding Tyler Eifert are not moves that will bring a lot of new hope to the fans in what was a pretty lackluster offseason in Chicago.
Team Philosophy: With the addition of Jeremy Hill, it appears Chicago wants to return to a 2-back rotation, but what is more important is that they want to focus on more of a vertical game. That means asking Aaron Dobson and Kenny Galloday to extend their routes and asking the line to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick for longer. On defense, the shift to a 3-4 system is in its second year and the hope is that the LB group can be more aggressive and more productive in producing takeaways.
2018 Outlook: The Machine are a team that looks better on paper than they played last year. If they can align performance to potential, they could make some strides, but if not, then we may be looking at an offseason overhaul in 2018.
LOOKING TO SOAR
Offseason Assessment: St. Louis surprised many by dealing with Philly and signing Louisville QB Lamar Jackson. With Josh Freeman’s injury issues, we could see Jackson on the field this year, and that could change the style of play we expect out of St. Louis. But, the bigger question is if a pair of rookie corners and a veteran DT was enough work to improve one of the league’s worst defenses.
Team Philosophy: A lot of questions here, particularly around the eventual transition from Josh Freeman to Lamar Jackson. Will Jackson’s presence push the offense to do more with run-pass options? Will Coach Reich move away from a more traditional run game and spread defenses out more? We may not truly see a shift in philosophy until we see a transfer at QB. On defense, St. Louis is hoping newly arrived LBs Christian Sam and Roquon Smith can make the 4-3 a more effective system, particularly against the run. The goal for St. Louis is to force teams into clear passing downs on 3rd and then turn pressure into turnovers. They were pretty lousy at that last year, but that is the goal.
2018 Outlook: We are just not seeing it. Even if we loved the Lamar Jackson deal, which we might, we just don’t see this team giving their defense enough attention. They just don’t have big playmakers on defense and they are too inconsistent, making life tough for an offense that needs to try to keep pace. That is not a winning formula in our book.
A NEW HERD TO DRIVE
Offseason Assessment: It’s a new era in Arizona. That’s the only way to say it. When your team loses as many players in one offseason as the Wranglers did, it is just a whole new ballgame. The Wrangler defense alone lost Dansby, Dorsey, Carriker, Williams, Flowers and Grove, that is more than half the squad. So, yes, it will be a very different defense. To rebuild the D Arizona brought in LB Blake Costanzo (FA), DT Grady Jarrett (Trade), CB Ross Cockrell (NFL) and drafted LB Malik Jefferson and DE Da’Shawn Hand. This will take time, and as we look at the depth chart, they are going to need some bit players to step up in a big way.
Team Philosophy: We all know what Arizona’s bread and butter is on offense, the deep ball. Yes, they can run the ball with Carey and the ageless Frank Gore, but they make their mark with those brutal big play throws from Carr to Fitzgerald and Bryant. The defense is completely rebuilt after a brutal loss of talent in the offseason. Arizona will continue to run Tomsula’s 4-3 defense, but the names both on the line and in the LB group are different, and it will be a while before we can tell if they are up to the task.
2018 Outlook: The Wranglers are a tale of two teams. The offense has incredible consistency, with all the major players returning and very likely still set up as one of the league’s best. The defense on the other hand is an entirely new roster, and Coach Tomsula is going to have his work cut out for him to get them all on the same page. Thankfully he still has a couple of veteran leaders on the squad in safety Troy Polamalu, CB Joe Haden and LB A. J. Klien. But will that be enough to keep Arizona from struggling on D and having to simply outscore all their opponents?
GOLD RUSH
Offseason Assessment: Denver shocked many by making a move for rookie QB Josh Allen. Allen needs time and coaching to get pro-ready, but his physicality is off the charts. Will he play this year? Barring injury, probably not, so who is new to Denver that will see action? How about rookie HB Phillip Linday, and three big additions to the D from free agency, NFL safety Morgan Burnett, and USFL signees DT Amobi Okoye, LB K. J. Wright, and SS DaJuan Morgan? Okoye will line up between Suh and Miller on the D-line, Wright is likely a sub for Onwuasor at MLB, and Burnett will back up Morgan as a 1-2 option at strong safety.
Team Philosophy: With the Gold, let’s start with defense. Denver has an outstanding front 4 (Suh and Okoye inside, Cole and Miller outside) and that predicates everything they do. They will not blitz often, leaving 7 players in coverage, but now, without Aqib Talib, they may opt to use more zone defense than in recent years. On offense, it is a pretty vanilla pro-style offense. Use the run, try to set up play action, get the ball to Golden Tate or Kelvin Benjamin outside. Will that change if we see rookie Josh Allen get some starts? We would think it would need to.
2018 Outlook: Denver looks like a team that could take over for the Wranglers as one of the elite defenses in the league. You have a line made up of Ndamukong Suh, Amobi Okoye, Justice Cole and Von Miller, perhaps the best front 4 of any team. Then you have Onwuasor, Barrett, Landry, and Wright at LB and a pretty solid secondary even after trading away Aqib Talib (and his hefty salary). Adding Morgan from LA was a brilliant move. Now, if the offense can be even middle-of-the-pack, this Denver team could be a contender, a real challenger to the Wranglers, Panthers and Thunder. Coach Hufnagel and former Denver star player and current GM Bruce Pickens are doing some good work up at altitude.
READY TO STRIKE
Offseason Assessment: The Vipers began the offseason underwater on the cap, or rather, nearly $12M over the cap for 2018, so they had a bit of a fire sale, sending HB Jeremy Hill to Chicago and WR Devante Parker to San Diego, also allowing Tyler Eifert and guard Ron Leary to walk in free agency. Along with safety Darnell Bing’s retirement, and some contract restructuring, they were able to get in the black, and that allowed them to make some moves late, signing TE Richard Quinn and CB Mac Anthony in December and then adding 3 low-cost NFL players in DT Daquan Jones, S Lamarcus Joyner and punter Jordan Berry. The draft produced their best addition, BYU linebacker Fred Warner, already penciled in as a swing backer between MLB and the strong side (behind Ahmad Brooks). But the biggest deal was completed only 2 weeks ago, with NFL halfback Kareem Hunt coming on a league minimum contract for 2 years, of course, that all depends on how his domestic violence charge and the damning video evidence play out.
Team Philosophy: The Vipers are hoping to essentially emulate what they see in Houston, with a diverse offensive scheme that uses the backs out of the backfield, mixes pass and run with a low level of predictability, but do they have the personnel to make that work? On defense, they will mix 4-3 and 3-4 alignments throughout the game, much like other teams mix zone and man coverage. They want to keep you guessing as to where the pressure will be. They blitz often, use a lot of line stunts, and even drop their DE’s into coverage when the LBs are coming in hot. The goal is to create uncertainty, confusion and panic in the QB and the OC.
2018 Outlook: Despite the fire sale early in the offseason, Las Vegas retained their core, building around Eli Manning. They are taking a risk in signing Hunt. The upside could be huge, but the backlash, and the potential for a lengthy suspension if his legal woes go the way many think, could be a major downside. The defense is adding youth, with the secondary looking like the strength right now, but watch out for the duo of Mario Addison and Matthew Judon at DE, they could be a nice combo for the Vipers. Are they an elite team? No, but they are pretty solid, and sometimes that can be enough. Now, they have to start also thinking about the post-Eli years, because Manning is not the long term answer.
BETTER THAN OK
Offseason Assessment: In line with their newfound focus on smashmouth power run football, the Outlaws got value by trading away Marques Colston, one of the stars of their recent years in Texas. They added one of the league’s best fullbacks in Greg Jones, and used their draft capital from the T-Draft rights to Baker Mayfield to add more blocking help in OT Austin Corbett and TE Mark Andrews. They also landed a player they hope can grow to be Joe Flacco’s protégé in OK State’s Mason Rudolph. Overall a pretty good offseason for a team that did not have a huge capacity to wheel and deal.
Team Philosophy: We saw a tectonic shift in style last season when Oklahoma moved away from a high-flying passing attack and opted to go smashmouth. It worked very well, and so we expect to see a lot of Marshawn Lynch this year and far fewer drop backs for the “human statue” Joe Flacco. The key to Flacco being effective will be keeping pressure off of him, which a truly effective power run game can do. On defense, Oklahoma will deploy a 4-3 but also tends to use nickel defense more on 1st and 2nd down than most teams in the league. We expect to see a mix of both, but always with that 4-man line at the base.
2018 Outlook: Coach Greg Landry is doing what so few coaches seem capable of, he is tailoring his system to his players. With a good run-blocking line and one of the best power backs in the game in Lynch, Landry is converting the wide open style of the Texas Outlaws into a new power run game Oklahoma squad. Joe Flacco can still chuck the ball, and will have some deep threats in Marquise Goodwin and Percy Harvin. They have promoted DeDe Westbrook to the starting lineup in a move that many see as an effort to add more height to the receiving group. With the 2-TE combo of Julius Thomas and rookie Mark Andrews, we could also see a lot of passing out of larger fronts. The defense is still a concern, with no clear stud on the edge and a good-tackling but relatively slow LB group. They still have Pacman Jones at corner, but the rest of the D looks like it could use some more speed and some more youth. We think the D might hold Oklahoma back, but if they can stay in games with the power run game, they can win some low scoring affairs.
DRILL, BABY, DRILL
Offseason Assessment: Coach Kliff Kingsbury comes over from Lubbock (Texas Tech) with a reputation for wide open spread offense, after all he developed NFL star Patrick Mahomes in that system. But is that what Dallas is set up for? Well, they added some pieces this offseason, primarily NFL castoffs Sammy Watkins and Austin Pettis, while using the T-Draft to land WR Courtland Sutton of SMU. Kingsbury is less adept at defense (typical Big 12 teams are pretty defensively inept), but will need to improve on Dallas’s erratic showing last year. Even before he arrived, Dallas tried to help with that by landing the best DB in the free agent pool in several years, signing Breaker CB Patrick Peterson. They then added DE Mathias Kiawanuka and LB Brandon Spikes. Is that enough to keep Dallas out of the defensive doghouse?
Team Philosophy: With a lot of depth at DT, Dallas wants to stick with a 4-3 defense, even slipping into some of Buddy Ryan’s old 46 defensive scheme at times. That requires a solid secondary, which has been an issue for the Roughnecks in the past, but now, with Patrick Peterson taking away each team’s top receiver, the plan could prove quite effective. On offense, Dallas will try to set up the run with a short passing game. They are still not sure what they have in the combo of Samaje Perine and D’onte Freeman, so we expect to see both backs splitting carries, but the key is for Johnny Manziel to be accurate on those shorter routes and to get the ball out quickly.
2018 Outlook: We expect to see a lot of spread and a lot of passing from this Dallas team, but if they cannot turn that into a lot of first downs, long drives, and scoring, then they will be putting a strain on their defense, and even with Patrick Peterson, that could be a big issue. The key there is if the combination of Kiawanuka and Connor Barwin can become a factor on third downs. It may only take a few stops per game to give Dallas a shot.
THUNDER ROLLING IN
Offseason Assessment: While some fans were hoping the Thunder would use the T-Draft to sign UCLA QB Josh Rosen, management did not see that as a priority and let Rosen slide into the Open Draft (he would sign with the NFL Cardinals). Instead they drafted and signed line help: C Scott Quessenberry and OT Kolton Miller, along with a good looking local defender in LB Kenny Young. In free agency they added TE Scott Chandler and DT Henry Melton, while re-signing CB Tye Smith. They also brought in depth at LB with NFL signing Demario Davis. Of course, the biggest move was the trade used to replace recently retired WR Chad Johnson. Nothing like replacing one future Hall of Famer with another, which is what San Diego did by making a deal with the Outlaws to bring in 4-time USFL yardage leader Marques Colston. We call it an upgrade, but don’t tell Ochocinco, because he will not agree.
Team Philosophy: San Diego wants to be a vertical passing team, but they have not had the run threat to be effective there. Ryan Williams is just not going to ground out 4-5 yards each play, so teams will continue to play the pass. That means that it is up to Joe Webb to find receivers at each level, with Colston now taking the deeper routes and Toon & Parker underneath. When the D is on the field, they will focus on stuffing the run with their D-line, which is not a great pass rush line, and then use blitzes, primarily from LBs Myles Jack and Shantee Orr to get to the QB.
2018 Outlook: We like where San Diego is heading. They dealt with Johnson’s retirement in winning fashion, added depth on both sides of the ball, youth and athleticism on the O-line, and they have consistent leadership with team captains on both sides who are in the prime of their careers. Our only real concern is with the run game, where Ryan Williams appears to have lost a step. He dropped from 4.3 YPC in 2016 to only 3.7 in 2017. That is not a good sign, especially for a back who is only 28.
But, compared to the rest of the Pacific, San Diego is in a much better position, with more depth and talent at key spots, so we still think they are going to walk away with the division simply on their understanding of who they are.
FLAME ON
Offseason Assessment: There were some departures this offseason, FS Dashon Goldson to the NFL, HB Joseph Addai’s retirement, Emmanuel Sanders to Portland, and the biggie, Shaun Schillinger signing with Charlotte. But overall, Seattle looks like a stronger team after adding 5 USFL free agents including HBs Knowshon Moreno and Wendell Smallwood, LB Aaron Curry, FS Donte Whitner, and backup QB Brad Gradkowski. They also added an X-factor in NFL wideout John Brown, a dynamic playmaker with great YAC skills. They then drafted and signed perhaps the best safety in the crop, Va Tech’s Terrell Edmunds, and two potential offensive contributors in WR/KR Dante Pettis and TE Will Dissly. A very solid offseason for the folks up in the Emerald City.
Team Philosophy: The addition of Knowshon Moreno gives Seattle a very good combo in the backfield and we expect Coach Riley to use their HB duo to pound teams into submission. The ground game also helps set up Jacoby Brissett with easy play action reads, which he will use to complete mid-range routes more often than not. The Seattle D has had issues getting QB pressure, so they will rely heavily on zones and pre-snap shifting to try to confuse the QB and keep all passing plays in front of their safeties.
2018 Outlook: What a job Mike Riley did with Seattle last year. Viewed in preseason as one of the league’s sad sacks, they dropped their first 5 games, but Riley got them to believe in miracles and they pulled one off, winning 9 of their final 11 and not only knocking off LA in the season finale to make the playoffs as a Wild Card, but then going into San Diego and knocking off the division champs. Can they do similarly this year while not having the ability to sneak up on anyone? Could be tough, and we think they still have some growing pains to get through, but this Seattle team is being built the right way, and we like where they are headed.
STRIKE LIKE LIGHTNING
Offseason Assessment: Oakland’s offseason started early when their head coach opted to retire and their starter at QB for the past 12 years announced his retirement. We have already walked through the long story of how they found a replacement for Joey Harrington, but what about the rest of the team? The Invaders lost 2 players to the NFL back in September, LB Donterrious Thomas and G Chris Keoeatu, but suffered almost no free agency departures within the USFL. They added DE Michael Bennett from the Panthers, a nice plus for their D-line, and they added a former 1st round NFL pick in guard Luke Joeckel to protect their new QB. In the draft Oakland landed a potential 10-12 year starter for the line as well, signing Notre Dame guard Quento Nelson. They also got some developmental talent at safety, linebacker, and DT, so overall a pretty good final result after a shaky start.
Team Philosophy: We don’t know a lot about Gary Kubiak’s offensive plan in Oakland yet. In their preseason game against Ohio they were pretty vanilla, though it seems clear that they want to focus the offense around McCaffrey. On defense Oakland showed us predominantly a 4-3 alignment, with Gallette and Gooden outside Wagner in the LB group. The hope is that the front 4 will provide pressure, reducing the need to blitz. Zone may be the predominant coverage used, at least it was in the one preseason game.
2018 Outlook: No disrespect to Ryan Lindley, but this year is all about how quickly Oakland can get Jimmy G on the field and how quickly the former Patriot and Niner can adapt to the spring game. Also adapting to the Spring game will be HC Gary Kubiak, after a long NFL-exclusive career. Kubiak left a front office position with the Broncos to get back to coaching, thanks in part to one of his mentors, former Invader coach Dennis Green. The new regime wants to build an offense around 2nd year HB Christian McCaffrey and wideout DaVante Adams. They also want a defense that can pressure the QB, and the combo of Bennett and Avril may just give them that. We see Oakland as a slow starter as the pieces come together, but they could have a late run that might make them very dangerous as a Wild Card.
NO STOPPING
Offseason Assessment: No NFL imports, only 2 signed free agents, and only 4 rookies signed. Someone might want to check to see what the heck the LA front office is spending their year doing, because it does not seem to be player personnel research and scouting. The Express were about as quiet as a team can be in the offseason. Now, the good news is that they basically only lost one player of note, safety DaJuan Morgan (FA-DEN). But, when you finish 8-8, the idea should be to add pieces to get better. Has anyone told the Express that?
Team Philosophy: The Express like to stay in 3-WR, 1-back formation as much as possible. They like having Bush run primarily outside but have to mix in some inside running as well. We don’t expect much to change except for the Express to try to stretch more plays a bit deeper this year, but that will depend on protection for Bradford. The Express defense runs a 4-3, which should be aided by the arrival of John Jenkins next to Chris Jones inside. The hope, of course, is that Jones can act as a 3rd pass rusher, since the combo of Scruggs and Jackson outside is not wowing anyone.
2018 Outlook: Look, we get that Andy Reid loves to build continuity and a team culture, but you have to add talent too. We are just not sure the Express have the talent to be a contender. Sam Bradford has had decent numbers, but is not burning up the league. Reggie Bush has had back-to-back 1,100 yard seasons, but is now 31 and could be due for a big dip in production, and the Express defense, while still solid, particularly up the middle (DTs Chris Jones & John Jenkins, MLB Clay Matthews, and FS David Bruton), they lack speed and lack any true pass rushers. This is not a formula to move from 8-8 to 12-4, this is a formula to possibly stumble to 4-12, and we think that is more likely than a sudden improvement unless Coach Reid is right and it is all about continuity. Time to prove it.
ANTLERS UP
Offseason Assessment: With the HC and GM both let go, you knew Portland would go in a new direction this offseason. They did that with their roster moves. They lost some talent when DT Jason Fisk retired, guard Mike McGlynn left for the NFL, and free agents Felix Jones, Donte Whitner, and Stephen Paea were allowed to walk away (Jones remains unsigned and could be back.) And while their only noteworthy free agent signing was WR Emmanuel Sanders, Portland did make some shrewd moves, swapping WR Brian Quick for a talented corner in A. J. Bouye, and getting several draft picks in trades that gave Denver the 2nd overall pick in the Open Draft (QB Josh Allen) and sent TE Cameron Jordan to Tampa Bay. With those picks, Portland signed 8 players, a nice haul when one considers how the NFL peels off players. In that haul we have starting nickel corner Taron Johnson, LB Ezekiel Turner of Washington, safety Trey Flowers from OK State, and a potential QB option in Richmond’s Kyle Lauletta.
Team Philosophy: Coach LaFleur wants to try to open things up, use more 3-WR formations, and set up fewer 8-man fronts against Doug Martin, but that will require better protection for, and production from Marcus Mariota. LaFleur’s defense will be a 3-4 alignment, with Ron Edwards and Tyrunn Walker rotating at the nose while Dion Jordan and DeMarcus Lawrence hold down the outside. Expect OLB Lance Briggs to also have a big role in the pass rush, while his opposite, Kiko Alonso, is primarily there to chase down the outside run.
2018 Outlook: Coach LaFleur came to Portland because he had such success developing Colt McCoy to take over in Houston. The goal is clearly to either pump up Marcus Mariota or to develop Kyle Lauletta to take over. For fans who are still upset that the Stags let Ryan Fitzpatrick go, LaFleur has to do something at the QB position. He has the league’s 2017 rushing champion, but without a viable threat in the passing game, Martin cannot win them games all alone. The defense too needs to be more assertive. This is largely a no-name defense, but if used correctly, LBs Lance Briggs, Kiko Alonso, and Nico Johnson can be one of the league’s better groups. So, what do we see for these Stags? Growing pains, some tough decisions, the need for at least one more solid offseason, but for now, they need to show they can compete week in and week out, even if the scoreboard does not go in their favor most weeks.
POST SEASON & AWARD PREDICTIONS
OK, back to our postseason prognostication, with our usual caveat that USFL football is wildly unpredictable. We saw that last year with the collapse of teams when their QBs got hurt (Orlando and Oakland come to mind) and the amazing rally put on by the Seattle Dragons after their 0-5 start had us writing them off as one of the league’s worst teams. So, what do we have for the post-season, well, not a lot of change from 2017. We do have Arizona slipping due to their defensive turnover, so it will be San Diego and Michigan with the two byes. Joining the Wranglers in the Wild Card round will be 4th seed Seattle, 5th seed Denver, and 6th seed Ohio.
We see Arizona easily getting past Ohio and Seattle edging Denver, thanks largely to home field up at Lumen Field. So that should send Seattle to face the 1 seed, Michigan, which we think has to go to the defending champs. Arizona heads to San Diego, and here we think the experience of the Wranglers and the leadership of David Carr are enough to pull off the road win, setting up a Wrangler-Panther title game. A Michigan win means a rematch in the Summer Bowl, something that has never happened in 35 seasons of USFL football. That is just too tempting, so we are going to predict that for the first time in league history it is a rematch, with Michigan facing off against Houston for the 2nd year in a row.
The 2017 Summer Bowl was impacted significantly by Colt McCoy’s lingering injury and his removal from the game helped tip the tide towards the Gamblers. This year we say McCoy is healthy and the Gamblers offense is in full form. That is a huge challenge for the Panthers and one we think Houston will win. We are going to pick Houston to become the first 5-time USFL champion by avenging their 2017 loss and holding off Michigan for a 28-27 victory in Summer Bowl 2018.
So, what about the award nominees we see coming out of the West. Well, a lot of obvious choices, but they are obvious because these are players at the top of their games. Here are our picks for players (and coaches) likely to be in the conversation for the league’s 5 major awards come July.
MVP: Let’s start it off with 2-time defending MVP David Carr. Seems an easy enough pick. But Carr wil not be alone. We could see Colt McCoy joining the conversation, and as a dark horse we really like Michigan’s Kirk Cousins, who keeps getting better each year.
OPOTY: Some big names in the conference seem to always be in the mix: Michigan HB LeVeon Bell, newly relocated WR Marques Colston, now with San Diego, Houston’s Carlos Hyde, and we may even see some votes headed to Portland’s Doug Martin if he can repeat as rushing champion.
DPOTY: So, who will challenge the Eastern Conference’s big sack masters for a shot at this defensive award? Well, their best shots from the pass rush are Denver’s Von Miller and Oakland’s Cliff Avril. But if the sack numbers are not astonishing this year, we could also see someone like Oakland LB Bobby Wagner, Michigan CB Dre Kirkpatrick, or even Arizona safety Troy Polamalu sneak into the conversation.
ROTY: Assuming neither of the big-name rookie QBs get enough of a season under their belt to compete for the title, we think the biggest potential emerging stars out of the Western Conference’s draft class would be Michigan WR Calvin Ridley and two defenders, St. Louis LB Roquan Smith (the first overall pick in the Open Draft) and Seattle SS Terrell Edmunds. But, with defenders rarely chosen, we think this one likely goes to one of the halfbacks out of the East.
COTY: As far as coaching goes, since we are not predicting a huge surprise team to rise up, this is kind of tough. Mike Riley could repeat if the Dragons jump up ahead of San Diego, but the more likely possibility is that one of the new head coaches produces a better-than-anticipated season for his club, and we think the most likely candidate there is Oakland and new head coach Gary Kubiak.
Opening week and we are here for it. Fourteen games over three days, seven home openers, and thousands of football craving fans ready to return to America’s game. Here is our breakdown of each game, with our pick for the player to watch for each team as the USFL 2018 season kicks off.
FRI @ 6pm ET Baltimore @ Philadelphia NBC
The season kicks off with a NE Divisional Clash as the defending division champion Stars face off against the rival Blitz. Our two players to watch are Philadelphia’s Derrick Henry and Baltimore WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, both potential All-USFL candidates in 2018.
FRI @ 8pm ET Arizona @ Denver ABC
The Friday night doubleheader continues with a SW Division clash and one of the best rivalries in the West, with Denver hosting the Arizona Wranglers at Invesco Field. Keep an eye on Denver’s new nose tackle, former general Amobi Okoye. For Arizona, the player to watch is rookie LB Malik Jefferson, who could see a lot of action at MLB.
SAT @ 12pm ET New Jersey @ Memphis ABC
The Generals hope to kick off the season with a road win in Memphis, but the Showboats are preparing more than a good tailgate party for the visitors. Keep an eye on CB Aqib Talib when New Jersey is on defense, and for Memphis, rookie TE Dallas Goedert could be a key target for Paxton Lynch.
SAT @ 12pm ET Orlando @ Charlotte FOX
Back to divisional play as we have a clash of teams from the Southeast. Russell Wilson is back for the Renegades, but we are keeping an eye on rookie HB Nick Chubb. For Charlotte it is all about getting newly acquired WR Justin Blackmon in synch with 2nd year QB Mitch Trubisky.
SAT @ 4pm ET Los Angeles @ Portland ABC
The Express head up to Portland in this Pacific Division clash. The Stags are hoping that former Dragon WR Emmanuel Sanders can help add some spark to their offense, while LA is counting on former Bull FS David Bruton can shut him down.
SAT @ 4pm ET Seattle @ Dallas FOX
Some big debuts in this clash at the Cotton Bowl. HB Knowshon Moreno puts on the green and gold of the Dragons for the first time while for Dallas the excitement is around the presence of CB Patrick Peterson in the Roughneck secondary.
SAT @ 7pm ET New Orleans @ Birmingham NBC
Fire up the smokers and get the grills blazing for a perfect southern tailgate as the Breakers head to B’ham to face the Stallions. We are watching to see how former Skyhawk Kony Ealy comes out in Week 1, while for the Stallions a lot of attention will be on the arrival of former NFL Lion Eric Ebron.
SAT @ 9pm ET Las Vegas @ Oklahoma ESPN/EFN
A Southwestern clash as the Outlaws host the Vipers at what we expect will be a 9th consecutive sellout at OGE Energy Stadium. Oklahoma is hoping that DeDe Westbrook can step into the very big shoes left by Marques Colston’s departure, while Las Vegas is excited to see what rookie LB Fred Warner can bring in his first pro action.
SUN @ 12pm ET San Diego @ St. Louis ABC
We don’t expect to see Lamar Jackson in this game, but we do expect some fireworks as San Diego brings their new prize, former Outlaw Marques Colston up against St. Louis’s suspect defense. The Skyhawks will counter with their new offensive weapon, former Star standout Stevie Johnson.
SUN @ 12pm ET Jacksonville @ Ohio FOX Regional
The Bulls head north to take on the Glory in this inter-divisional clash. Jacksonville will start Robert Griffin III, who needs a good first week to solidify his position with Teddy Bridgewater in the wings. For Ohio, the buzz has been about the play of former NFL safety Tyrann Mathieu, the Honey Badger, a player to keep an eye on all game.
SUN @ 12pm ET Washington @ Pittsburgh FOX Regional
Two teams hoping to climb out of the basement of the NE Division meet in the Steel City. For the homestanding Maulers, the new shiny addition is rookie tailback Sony Michel, while Washington is hoping to get immediate returns from their signing of rookie Bradley Chubb at DE.
SUN @ 4pm ET Tampa Bay @ Houston ABC
Can the Bandits take an early swing at defending Conference Champion Houston, or will the Gamblers open strong? Houston rookie Keke Coutee will start as the 3-receiver, taking over the slot, while for the Bandits it is all about former Cowboy Dez Bryant giving the offense a true number one.
SUN @ 4pm ET Oakland @ Chicago FOX
With the announcement that Ryan Lindley will get the start for the Invaders, over newly-arrived Jimmy Garoppolo, Oakland will focus their offense through 2nd year halfback Christian McCaffrey. For Chicago, Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the start but Chicago looks to return to a 2-back rotation with Matt Forte sharing time with former Breaker and Viper Jeremy Hill.
SUN @ 8pm ET Atlanta @ Michigan ESPN/EFN
The week finishes up with the league champion on display as the Michigan Panthers take on the visiting Atlanta Fire. Michigan is excited about the camp that rookie WR Calvin Ridley has had, while Atlanta is debuting their own big-time rookie in halfback Nick Chubb.
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