2018 USFL Week 16 Recap: Playoff Drama Fills the Week!

I don’t know what else you could want from a USFL regular season final week. We had a true play-in game on Sunday night, we had Wild Card battles in the Northeast, South, Southwest, and Pacific Divisions. We had teams battling for bye weeks, for home field, and for their playoff lives. We had tiebreakers and heartbreakers. It was a week to remember and one I hope you did not miss. So, what were the results? We will get to that soon enough, but first we will start with the big story of the week, 4 more coaches joining Andy Reid and John Fox on the golf course as Black Monday strikes again in the USFL. Then we will cover all the big games, starting with our GOTW, the Portland-Oklahoma game that helped one team claim the final playoff spot in the league. Then all the recaps, all the stories, and our look ahead to a Wild Card Weekend that will feature a massive divisional showdown in the East and a battle of surprising playoff teams in the West. All that, plus the final Power Rankings of the season, with a few surprises as streaks take on extra value at season’s end. All now, all here, you know this is the place for all your USFL news: This Week in the USFL.

Four Join Coaching Job Hunt on Black Monday

After the mid-season resignation of Andy Reid, and the Week 15 announcement from John Fox, we were not sure how many positions would be vacated on Black Monday. We had a feeling that Interim Coach of the Express Emmitt Thomas would be let go, and he was. We also suspected that a 7-9 finish was not enough to keep Henry Ellard in his position in Birmingham, and it wasn’t. We also saw the Oklahoma Outlaws opt out of the final year of their contract with Tom Ramsey after an 11-year run in San Antonio that saw only 4 playoff appearances, no titles, and then a frustrating pair of 7-9 seasons in Oklahoma. It was also no surprise that Tampa Bay, suffering through a 3-13 season, has jettisoned offensive “genius” June Jones, whose version of the run & shoot provided plenty of stats for Dak Prescott and Dalvin Cook, but could not provide wins for the team.

So, four more coaches let, go meaning there are 5 positions available in the league. Before we get to our picks for the perfect candidates for each position, a note about a few coaches who must be thanking their lucky stars that they get another chance (at least that is what we think, though they could get a pink slip at any point this offseason, so don’t breathe too easy). Among the surprise retentions we have Baltimore’s Jim Caldwell, who many saw as on the hot seat after his Blitz club slid all the way to a 10-loss season, but a few late season upsets, and a sense that the team very much supports the coach who won them a league title only 4 years ago, and Caldwell gets a chance to rebound with the Blitz. Another coach who has to be thankful today, Las Vegas’s Rick Neuheisel, whose Vipers slid from division champs to 7-9, but it was only a 2-game difference, one that could be blamed on Eli Manning’s midseason injury, so Neuheisel returns and now will face the challenge of finding a replacement for the retiring Manning. Oh, and a few 1st year coaches who got the benefit of the doubt after poor seasons, largely because they need time to work with the GMs to rebuild their rosters. That is you Kliff Kingsbury (Dallas) and Brian Flores (Jacksonville). Expect major overhauls to both teams, especially at QB this offseason.

So, what about the 5 open positions. What does each team need? What might they do as they head into their offseason? Here is our best guess:

BIRMINGHAM: The Stallions are not far from competing, though they are in a brutal division with 3 teams that won 11 or more games this year. They saw significant improvement on the defense, but the offense runs hot & cold. What they need is a coach who can delegate play-calling and focus on a scheme and a culture of discipline, execution, and players taking accountability for themselves. We think a disciplinarian in the mold of Ohio’s Tom Coughlin would be ideal, but who is that coach? We are not sure, though we like what we saw from the Ohio defense (which is 50% Coughlin), so maybe Ohio DC Jim Schwartz.

LOS ANGELES: The story going into 2018 was that LA had a solid D and an incoherent offense. Well, we got it half right. The Express offense remained a muddle, finishing 25th in points scored and 26th in yardage, despite a 1,000-yard season from Reggie Bush. The defense, however, was a huge disappointment, so much so that star LB Clay Matthews has openly declared he is leaving in free agency. So, what we think LA needs is a coach who can rebuild the team almost as if they were an expansion team. Someone who can take advantage of their 1st overall draft choices, and the USC talent pool in the T-Draft. That means experienced, focused, and a proven commodity. Two names come to mind, former Seattle Head Coach Marvin Lewis and former NFL “superstar” coach John Gruden, both available if you can pull them out of broadcasting and both the kind of big name that will get some sour LA fans to buy season tickets even for a rebuilding club.

OKLAHOMA: There is certainly talent in OKC, with Joe Flacco, Marshawn Lynch, emerging WR Dede Westbrook, and a defense that has Pacman Jones and LB Jonathan Moulton, but the Outlaws are a team with no clear philosophy. They need to rebuild their D around their 2 best players, and they need to find an offense that plays to the strengths of Flacco’s arm and Lynch’s legs. They need to rebuild both lines as well. But, with all these needs, we still think there is an obvious choice who will excite folks in the Sooner State, former Sooner HC Bob Stoops. Stoops has never led a pro team, but his experience in building winners and his Oklahoma credentials would make him an immediate favorite among the Outlaws new fanbase in OKC.

ORLANDO: So, here is the key to this position. If Orlando goes offense, trying to support Wilson, Perriman and a new style of offense, then that tells us that Calais Campbell may be on the way out (retiring or demanding a trade), but if they go with a current defensive coordinator, like Schwartz in Ohio or Oakland’s Reggie Herring, then Campbell could stay put and we will all wonder what happens to the offense. Our pick would be someone who could work with both squads, perhaps a college success like Georgia’s Kirby Smart or former Wisconsin & Arkansas coach Bret Bielema.

TAMPA BAY: The June Jones was short and not-so-sweet. But Tampa Bay is still very much interested in playing “Bandit Ball” and winning with a big strike offense. The problem is they finished the year 4th in yards but only 15th in scoring, and the defense, well, the less said about that, the better. We know what fans want, they want the club to once again turn to Steve Spurrier, but that seems far-fetched at best. How about finding a younger, up-and-coming offensive mind. There are plenty out there, in college, in the USFL, maybe even in Canada. How about someone like Kevin Gilbride, Joe Lombardi, or Eric Bienemy? 

PORTLAND STAGS 17  OKLAHOMA OUTLAWS 10

While the showdown between Portland and Oklahoma at OGE Energy Field was not directly a play-in game, only Michigan-Seattle met that criteria, it was a game with huge playoff implications. Portland would clinch a Wild Card spot with a win, Oklahoma could still get in with a win, despite a 7-8 record, if, and only if, Denver lost in their game against Chicago. The two games were played simultaneously, so for the Outlaws, the key was to worry about Portland and not spend energy on tracking Denver’s game on the scoreboard.

For the Stags, the job was easier. All they needed was a road win. They had already beaten both Pittsburgh and Oakland on the road in the past month, so what was one more hostile crowd? They had Marcus Mariota back under center, both Ben Tate and Doug Martin available at HB and Brandin Cooks was on his way toward locking up the league title for receptions. Sure, this was Joe Flacco, but with Marshawn Lynch unavailable, the key was to play the pass on every down and force Oklahoma to run the ball with Jahvid Best and James Ridley.

That strategy, paired with both teams hoping to shorten the game and keep the score in the teens, led to a scoreless, and largely punchless first quarter, but that would change in the 2nd, when 19 of the game’s 27 points would be scored. It started simply enough, Mariota found Brandin Cooks on a nice double-move route and picked up 29 yards to place the ball inside the 20, but Oklahoma’s defense tightened, allowing only 4 yards between the two runs on first and second down, and then pressuring Mariota to throw the ball away on third down. Dan Carpenter’s 33-yard kick would be the first points of the game, but only 3 points let up by the Outlaws.

Oklahoma would be the first to put a touchdown on the scoreboard, doing so only 6 seconds later, as a well-executed play action to best set up TE Julius Thomas in single coverage with safety Darrian Thompson, a 2nd year player who still has not fully grasped the speed of some USFL tight ends. Thompson went for the ball instead of the man, and Thomas made him pay for that mistake, racing 74-yards to paydirt and giving Oklahoma their first lead of the day, 7-3.

The rest of the first half would be a kick-fest, with Portland adding 2 more field goals and Oklahoma’s Kai Forbath hitting his first of the day. By the half, the score was 10-9 Oklahoma, still holding the advantage thanks to that one big play from Julius Thomas. The Outlaw defense had bent, but not broken on two more Portland drives, forcing short field goals on both occasions and allowing the Outlaws to go to the half with a slight lead.

The third quarter, much like the first, saw very little in the way of offensive success. Joe Flacco struggled to find an open receiver (He would go only 11 of 25 on the day thanks to Portland’s zone coverage) and Portland struggled to turn yards into points. The Stags would finish the day well ahead of Oklahoma in yards gained, 428 to 285, but they just were unable to find the big play or the right call to put the ball in the endzone.

And yet, early in the 4th, the Stags would still put up the only points of the half. It came after a poor punt by Oklahoma gave Portland the ball at their own 47. They opted to go to big formations, bringing in 2 tight ends and a fullback on several plays. That seemed to work for them against an Oklahoma defense that had been on the field for a good part of the game already. Ben Tate would be the lead back as the larger, more physical of the two main Portland options. He would have 7 of his 17 carries on this one drive, and with those 7 carries he produced nearly 45 yards of offense. Other than a short crossing pattern to Alshon Jeffery and a hook to TE Trey Burton, every positive play on the 11-play drive was Tate carrying the rock.

So, with a drive like that, it was fitting that Tate would be the one to score. He did just that on a classic counter tre, looking very much like John Riggins as the initial tackler slid off him and the smaller DB was simply carried backwards. Tate’s 6-yard run made it a 15-10 lead for the Stags. Coach LaFleur, recognizing that anything less than a 7-point lead could lead to a 4th quarter drive ending their playoff hopes, kept Mariota, Tate, and the offense on the field. The Stags did nothing fancy, just lined up tight and let Tate find the hole on an inside run. The line pushed forward against a tired Outlaw defense, and Tate stretched the ball over the line to secure 2 more points.

Oklahoma, now down 7, with just over 10 minutes to play, still had time to even the score, but they would need to find more on offense than the one big play that had given them their earlier lead. Looking at Oklahoma’s final 3 possessions, it is clear that they simply did not have the quick-strike capacity they needed to pull out the win.

Their first possession was a 3-and-out, with Best gaining only 1 on first down, an incompletion to Westbrook on 2nd down, and a short 5-yard gain on third down. Their second possession was only 1 play longer, and only because the ref called a defensive holding on Portland’s A. J. Bouye on first down. But even with the automatic first down, Oklahoma could not pick up momentum. Again it was a short run on first down, an incompletion on 2nd down, and, in this case, a draw to Best on third down that did not come close to reaching the line to gain.

Oklahoma’s third and final possession would begin with 2:02 left on the clock. It would be longer, but no less frustrating for the fans in the stands. Starting at their own 11, the Outlaws got a quick first down when Flacco found Thomas for 12 yards. They would get a 2nd one 2 plays later with a nice pass to Thomas (Flacco’s favorite target on the day), but with only 1:31 left, Oklahoma had only reached their own 37. That is as far as they would get on the drive. On 1st down, Flacco’s pass to Goodwin was broken up. Second down saw the Outlaws called for illegal shift, sending them back to the 32. Then, on the replay, Flacco was sacked by Tyrunn Walker for a loss of 11, taking them back to the 20 and producing a 3rd and 26. Flacco gained 9 of those yards back on a pass to Goodwin, but facing a 4th and 16, the Oklahoma offense simply did not have a play. Flacco completed the pass to Justin Hunter, but he was easily tackled after 10 yards and the Stags took over on downs.

A kneel from Mariota and the game was over. Oklahoma’s season was also done, and, we now know, so was Greg Landry’s time as the Outlaw head coach. For Portland, the win meant that they were in the show, now all they needed to know is if they would be headed to Ohio to face the Central Division champs, or to San Diego to face the Thunder. That answer would have to wait until Sunday night. If Seattle won, then Portland would be the 5-seed and would face San Diego in a Pacific Division clash. If Michigan could beat the Dragons in Seattle, then the Stags would have the 6-seed and would be headed to Ohio to face the Glory.

PHILADELPHIA 22  JACKSONVILLE 17

P. J. Walker gets the start at QB for the Stars and gets a W as Philadelphia finishes 7-9. Karlos Williams led Philadelphia in rushing, Randall Cobb in receiving. For Jacksonville, Teddy Bridgewater threw for 221 and 2 scores, while Matt Jones finished with 81 yards rushing. Both clubs now turn to the offseason and trying to build more depth and more explosiveness across their rosters.

POTG: Stars’ DE Malik Jackson: 5 Tck, 3 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR

PITTSBURGH 10  WASHINGTON 19

The Feds outlast the Maulers to finish 9-7, sending Pittsburgh to a 3rd consecutive loss and a disappointing 8-8 finish. David Garrard was unable to finish the game, but would be available if Washington made the post-season. They now need to wait to see the result of Charlotte’s final game.

POTG: Federal LB D’Qwell Jackson: 9 Tck, 1 Sck, 2 FF, 1 FR

NEW JERSEY 30  TAMPA BAY 13

The Generals take care of business and the Bandits. Building up a 20-7 halftime lead and cruising to a win and the NE Division title. MJD rushed for 81 yards and a score, while Nick Foles survived 6 sacks to throw for 227 and a TD to OBJ as the Generals win their 2nd division title in the past 3 years.

POTG: New Jersey LB Aldon Smith: 13 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 FF, 1 FR

DALLAS 0  LAS VEGAS 26

It was all Vipers in the send off game for QB Eli Manning. Their retiring QB threw for 2 scores and the defense dominated the Roughnecks in a game that had no playoff potential, but plenty of fans there to say goodbye to Manning in his final pro game. Coach Neuheisel sent Manning to the bench with 3 plays left in the game so that fans could give him a final ovation. For Dallas, the loss was their 9th in a row to end a truly brutal season.

POTG: Viper QB Eli Manning: 19/27, 174 Yds, 2 TD, 0 Int

ST. LOUIS 13  OAKLAND 14

Oakland struggled, falling behind 13-0 after 3 quarters but came alive in the 4th, taking the lead with a late Davante Adams TD reception. The star of the game for Oakland was HB Christian McCaffrey, who rushed for 155 yards, but needed 2 more, finishing the season at 998 for the year.

POTG: McCaffrey: 21 Att, 151 Yds

SAN DIEGO 26  LOS ANGELES 16

The Thunder lock up the 4 seed on the road, scoring the first 17 points of the game and then holding off Brock Osweiler to secure the win. Marques Colston caught 7 for 106 and the defense picked off the LA quarterback twice in the 2nd half to secure the win and a home playoff game next week. LA dropped to 3-13 and will have the 1st overall pick in the 2019 draft.

POTG: San Diego QB Christian Ponder: 19/25, 305 Yds, 1 TD, 0 Int

HOUSTON 17  MEMPHIS 13

In a game that ended up being a battle to see who would host the rematch next week, Houston got a Vernon Davis TD in the third quarter and held off Memphis in the 4th to take the win, assuring their fans get the chance to cheer them on next week. Colt McCoy played only a half after taking a shot to the head, but is expected to be back next week. Paxton Lynch threw two costly picks, as Houston clamped down in the final 20 minutes of action to secure the 4-seed.

POTG: Houston WR Mike Evans: 5 Rec, 83, Yds, 1 TD

BALTIMORE 30  ATLANTA 27

The Fire rested several starters and Baltimore went into the game with Brandon Boykin at QB as the Blitz won their finale to finish 6-10. Boykin threw for 2 scores and 244 yards, while Atlanta’s DeShone Kizer threw for 233 and 2 scores, but had a costly 4th quarter pick as well. The halfbacks also performed well, with Anthony Dixon racking up 118 yards and Nick Chubb crossing the 1,000-yard mark for the year with 93 and a TD in the game.

POTG: Baltimore HB Anthony Dixon: 12 Att, 118 Yds

CHARLOTTE 19  BIRMINGHAM 30

The Monarchs, knowing that Washington’s win over Pittsburgh gave Charlotte the 6th seed on a tiebreaker, played it very vanilla against Birmingham, resting several players after the first quarter, and fell to 9-7 as a result. Birmingham got 3 TDs from Cam Newton, who played the entire game, as the Stallions finished 7-9. By Monday they would learn that 7 wins was not good enough for the club to hold onto Henry Ellard as their head coach.

POTG: Stallion WR Dontrelle Inman: 2 Rec, 110 Yds, 2 TD

ORLANDO 10  NEW ORLEANS 27

New Orleans had no sentiment about John Fox’s last game with Orlando. They needed the win to wrap up the 1-seed, and they got it, thanks in part to a defense that held Orlando under 300 yards of offense and an offense that controlled the clock, with KennyBritt, Jordy Nelson and C. J. Spiller all scoring for the new 1-seed in the East.

POTG: Breaker DE Kenny Ealy: 5 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 FF

OHIO 27  ARIZONA 28

Arizona rested several starters, so it was Brooks Bollinger who got the win over Ohio, who kept their starters in all game. Bollinger threw for 2 scores and 273 yards, showing that Arizona’s system is solid regardless of who is under center. Ohio could have nabbed the win, but a late fumble killed a drive in field goal range.

POTG: Arizona WR DeMarcus Robinson: 8 Rec, 105 Yds

CHICAGO 10  DENVER 13

Denver needed help to make the postseason. They did not get it. But, they did their part to finish 9-7, edging Chicago at home to lock up a winning record in Matt Leinart’s final game. Like Manning in Las Vegas, Denver took out Leinart with just a kneel down left, allowing their long time starter to get a standing ovation from a grateful Denver crowd.

POTG: Denver LB Shaquile Barrett: 7 Tck, 1 Sck

MICHIGAN 38  SEATTLE 20

Seattle held a 20-14 lead at the half, but Michigan dominated the 2nd half of the season finale, scoring 24 unanswered points to take the win and the final playoff spot in play. LeVeon Bell got 101 of his 155 yards in the 2nd half, and touchdowns from William Bethea, Bell, and Kevin Kraft gave Michigan what they needed to secure the 5-seed in the West and a shot to defend their title in the postseason. Seattle, finishes 8-8 after an 0-5 start, which is still impressive, but one game shy of what they had hoped to achieve this week.

POTG: Panther HB LeVeon Bell: 21 Att, 155 Yds, 2 TD

Federals Do Their Part, but Fall Short On Tiebreaker

The Feds did what they needed to do, but they apparently did not read the fine print. Had they (and their fans) done so, they would have realized that even at 9-7, after knocking off the Pittsburgh Maulers to claim 2nd place in the NE Division, they would not make the post-season. Why? Because as of 3 years ago, strength of non-division schedule was moved above conference record as a tiebreaker, and that gave Charlotte the tiebreaker, so even a loss by the Monarchs did not remove them from the advantaged position.

Had Pittsburgh won, they would have claimed the final Wild Card spot, but with Washington’s victory, the Monarchs locked up the final spot, even with Washington winning in Week 16 and Charlotte getting knocked around by the Stallions. It is a harsh way to go, to put your all in, to beat a division rival on the season’s final week, believing it gave you a shot, and then finding out that even with a loss, another club still nabs the final playoff spot. Would Washington be a better foe for the Generals next week? Almost certainly, if only due to familiarity, but it will be Charlotte sneaking in, some would say backing in, to that game, and Washington, who surprised many by finishing 9-7, who will be sitting home wishing they had won just one more game this year. 

Gold Reach 9 Wins, but Stag Win Ends Playoff Hopes

It is a similar feeling in Denver, though with less illusion as the Gold knew exactly what they needed to get in. They needed to beat the Chicago Machine and, as that game was happening, they had to watch the scoreboard to see if Oklahoma could take care of the Portland Stags at OGE Energy Stadium. Denver did their part, though it was no picnic, a tough 13-10 victory that was not decided until the 4th quarter, and things seemed to be going their way in Oklahoma as well, with the Outlaws holding a 10-9 lead through the first 3 quarters, but a Portland TD from HB Ben Tate with 10 minutes left in the game meant that Denver would not make the postseason. When the Gold game finished, Denver players and fans stayed in the stadium, watching the final 2 minutes of the Stag-Outlaw game on the big screen, and eventually went home disappointed. Portland held on, locking up the 6-seed in the West, and Denver, despite a solid 9-7 first season under Coach Gary Kubiak, were another team with a winning record, but no playoff berth. 

Express Lock up 1st pick in 2019 Collegiate Draft

On the other side of the standings, with their loss to the San Diego Thunder, the LA Express finished the year at 3-13, tied with the Bandits and Roughnecks, but assured the first pick in the draft thanks to their weaker strength of schedule. Tampa Bay “earned” the 2nd spot, and Dallas, despite a 9-game losing streak to finish the year, ends up 3rd. Both the Express and Bandits will have new coaches in place for 2019, so those early draft picks will go to good use, but it is not the kind of advantage any team wants to have.

The remainder of the non-playoff draft order was also set, with Jacksonville picking 4th as the lone 4-win club this year. They are followed by 5-11 St. Louis, then 6-10 Orlando and Baltimore, before we get to the cluster of 7-9 teams. Tiebreakers only went so far, and a coin toss was used to determine the 8th and 9th pick. It will be Chicago at 8, Birmingham at 9, followed by Las Vegas, Philadelphia, and Oklahoma. 8-8 Seattle picks 13th, Pittsburgh at 14, and the 9-7 but not quite good enough Gold and Federals wrap it up with the 15th and 16th picks. As always, the remaining 12 picks will depend on when teams are removed from the playoffs and then their records, with the lowest seeds getting the earlier picks as teams are eliminated from the postseason.

So, Kyler Murray, Nick Bosa, Clelin Ferrell, and Ed Oliver, you have a season ahead of you to impress the Express, Bandits, and others that you deserve their attention come draft day (yes, we know, most are also likely T-Draft selections, but what is the fun in assuming none of them will be available in the Open Draft?)

Sturgis & Vinatieri Surge for Points Title

It was the one statistical race that really was unsure. We pretty much knew who to expect in passing, rushing, receiving and most defensive categories, but the league scoring leader was a very tight race with several potential winners in the mix in Week 16. While Roberto Aguayo (OAK) and Lewis Ward (MEM) entered the weekend in the lead with 123 points, there were no fewer than 4 other kickers who could conceivably catch them, and one did. Caleb Sturgis of New Orleans added 2 field goals and 3 PATs in the Breakers’ 27-10 win over Orlando and that was enough to give them a league-leading 131 points for the year. But, Sturgis was not alone in having a big game this weekend. Washington’s Adam Vinatieri was the bulk of Washington’s offense in their 19-10 win over Pittsburgh, putting 4 field goals and a PAT on the board. That 13 point game shot Vinatieri from 118 to 131 points, giving him a share of the scoring title with Sturgis, even if the Feds are not going to be seeing more action while New Orleans sits pretty with the 1-seed in the East.

Other league stat champions in 2018 are pretty much what we expected:

Passing Yards:          Colt McCoy                     4,377 Yards

Passing TDs:            Colt McCoy                     35 TDs

Passer Rating:         Ryan Nassib                   117.9 QBR

Rushing Yards:         LeVeon Bell                     1,617 Yards

Rushing TDs:           Maurice Jones-Drew  16 TDs

Receptions:             Brandin Cooks              128 Receptions

Receiving Yards:      Mike Evans                      1,616 Yards

Receiving TDs:        Mike Evans                      16 TDs

Tackles:                  Kirk Morrison                  130 Tackles

Interceptions:          Marcus Williams         9 Interceptions

Sacks:                       Calais Campbell          30 Sacks

MVP Chase Could be Heated Battle of QBs

So, which QB is the MVP? The leader of the club with the best record, who also holds the QB Rating title? The QB with the most yards and most TDs, despite only qualifying his club as a Wild Card contender? How about the 2-time MVP who finished 2nd in yards and touchdowns, while locking up the 1-seed in the East? Those are your obvious contenders: Ryan Nassib of the 12-3-1 Wranglers, Colt McCoy of the 12-4 Gamblers, or Drew Brees of the 12-4 Breakers?

There is a case for each, so it comes down to what the voters prefer, game results, big numbers, or efficiency. All three teams have 12 wins, so do we blame Colt McCoy because New Orleans won the tiebreaker to take the 1-seed in the East or do we focus on the stats. All three have huge numbers, but none are at or close to league records. Does that give the underdog, the surprise candidate, Nassib an edge? Or will voters recognize the rise of Colt McCoy as an elite QB in the tradition of Kelly and Hasselbeck, former Gambler MVPs? Or, with his retirement eminent, do voters give Drew Brees one more accolade on his way into the sunset?

It is a very tough call, because all three had great seasons, on great teams, and it is very likely that one of these 3 QBs will also be headed home this offseason with a title trophy and a championship ring on order.  They all are deserving, but only 1 will get the MVP. Should be a nice topic of debate for the next 3 weeks until the USFL Gala in New Orleans ahead of the 2018 Summer Bowl.

When all the dust had settled, and the final game of the weekend was in the books, we had our 12 playoff teams. New Jersey had won the NE with their victory in Tampa Bay. Michigan and Portland had won their must-win games and wrapped up the final Wild Cards in the West, and Charlotte, thanks to the 3rd tiebreaker, had backed into the East’s final Wild Card spot over Washington. Losing out were the Federals and Gold (both finishing 9-7), the Dragons and Maulers (both 8-8), and the Outlaws (dropping to 7-9).

The week also set up the schedule for next week, with the 4 Wild Card games set and scheduled by Monday morning. Wild Card weekend would kick off with Charlotte visiting New Jersey, followed by the defending champion Michigan Panthers starting their title defense on the road in San Diego. Sunday would see an inversion, with the Eastern Conference game actually taking place further West than the Western Conference game, and so it would be Portland visiting Ohio in Columbus for the early game and Memphis and Houston reprising their Week 16 matchup in NRG Stadium in the late game.

 The early lines for both had all 4 home teams favored, with Ohio as the largest favorite with a 6-point advantage and New Jersey as the shakiest with a 2-point advantage. Expect those to rise and fall as the bets come in over the next few days, but for now all four home favorites are being given marginal advantage over the visitors.

As we look ahead to the Wild Card round of playoffs, there are certainly some games that will be affected by injuries, though, we must say, most of these teams have been dealing with their unavailable players for some time, with many on IR already and for several weeks.

CHA: WR Hakeem Nicks (IR), DT Vernon Butler (OUT), DE Anthony Zettel (P)

NJ: HB Kiero Small (IR)

No doubt that losing Nicks has hurt the Charlotte offense. Blackmon remains the main target, but Austin Proehl will have to step up as the number 2.

MGN: LB Jake Ryan (IR), SS Tarvarious Moore (IR), TE Rob Housler (OUT),

                  WR Jerrel Jernigan (Q)

SDG: LB A. J. Hawk (P)

The Thunder are very much hoping that adrenaline and a sense of duty will put A. J. Hawk on the field this Saturday. For Michigan, losing Housler is a blow to the offense, meaning that LeVeon Bell may have to play the role of outlet receiver, one he does not often fill.

POR: FS Rudy Ford (IR), LB Nico Johnson (Q), C Sean Harlow (P), HB Ben Tate (P)

OHI: SS Tyran Mathieu (OUT), CB Jeremy Lane (P)

Ohio has been without Mathieu for most of the season and still rank as a Top 10 scoring defense. For Portland, getting Ben Tate back this week helped them win their matchup with the Outlaws, and now, paired with Doug Martin, they have a very formidable 1-2 punch in the run game.

MEM: TE Luke Stocker (IR), HB Jacob Hester (IR), WR Cobi Hamilton (D), LB NaVorro

       Bowman (D)

HOU: CB Leodis McKelvin (IR), SS Budda Baker (IR)

Houston has been without their 2 best DBs for several weeks now, but against Memphis that could be a real issue for them. Meanwhile, the Showboats are still coping with Luke Stocker’s absence and will count on rookie Dallas Goedert to help pull safeties off of either Robert Woods or Mark Clayton.

No Record as 10th Pick Proves Elusive for Williams

There is no doubt that the 2018 season will be remembered as a monumentous one in the home of Marcus Williams. After 4 seasons in Memphis, Williams had captured a grand total of only 3 picks, but this season he reached 9 interceptions by Week 14. With 2 games left he had a shot to either tie or surpass the league record of 10 interceptions in a season, held by another largely-unknown player, Texas Outlaw Free Safety Elbert Shelley back in 1997. It was a record now 12 seasons old, but one of the toughest to break because it depended on so much. Unlike a rushing, or even a sack stat, where the player is largely able to dictate the possibilities to score another notch on the statboard, with interceptions, much like receptions, so much depends on other players, players like the opposing QB.

Williams had 2 games to tie or break the record, but in those two games he would face the Dallas Roughnecks (QB Josh Freeman) and the Houston Gamblers (QB Colt McCoy). While Dallas was struggling, and was perhaps the easier target for Williams, Josh Freeman is no anxious rookie or inaccurate gunslinger. Colt McCoy would be even tougher, with very good receivers who could fight a pick away from a DB, and an offense that tended to find success against even the best secondaries.

And so Williams had a chance, but it was by no sense assured, and, as we saw, over his final two games the chances to nab that 10th pick was simply not coming his way. There would be only 1 Memphis pick in the 2-game run, and that was a tipped ball far from Williams’s side of the field. So, no record, but even without that accolade, Williams will in all likelihood be named an All-USFL player this year, something not on anyone’s radar before the season.

Final Regular Season Power Ranking Offers A Few Surprises

Sixteen weeks down, an entire season of ups and downs, and we come to the final Power Rankings of the season. There is no doubt that some teams have outperformed their preseason expectations, others have fallen well short of where we thought they would be, and along the way, we have seen teams go from cold to hot, hot to cold, or bouncing from win streaks to cold snaps. Our final rankings take into account the way teams finished the year, from 3-4 game win streaks, to a truly nasty 9-game losing streak. So, without further delay, here is the way the 28 USFL clubs stack up as we prepare for the postseason to begin.

1—Arizona Wranglers (12-3-1)           Up from 6th in preseason poll.

Best record in the league and the first team to clinch a playoff spot. Makes sense they are here.

2—New Orleans Breakers (12-4)      Up from 7th in preseason poll

We had a feeling that whoever won the South would end up here. The Breakers get it on a tiebreaker.

3—Houston Gamblers (12-4)              Down from 2nd in preseason poll

Houston finished tied with the Breakers at 12-4, but while many think they are the better team, we nod to the standings and the playoff seeds.

4—San Diego Thunder (10-6)              No change from preseason poll.

The Thunder have won 4 in a row and 10 of 12 since their 0-4 start. They are a team that has found their stride, and possibly a new QB in Christian Ponder.

5—Memphis Showboats (11-5)         Up from 21st in preseason poll.

A great story in 2018, the rise of Paxton Lynch and the Showboats could end quickly if they cannot figure out how to slow down Houston this week.

6—New Jersey Generals (9-6-1)        Up from 9th in preseason poll.

It was not the most direct route to a Division Title, but the Generals slogged through a tough schedule and a lot of ups and downs to earn this spot.

7—Oakland Invaders (11-5)                 Up from 18th in preseason poll.

As much as it feels strange to put an 11-win team below a 9-win team, there are still concerns about Oakland’s offense that make us pause about their playoff prospects.

8—Ohio Glory (10-6)                                 Up from 12th in preseason poll.

The Glory have been a grinder of a team, finding ways to win, but rarely looking dominant. The fact that they lost to a team of Arizona backups this week has to worry them.

9—Atlanta Fire (10-6)                               Up from 13th in preseason poll.

An argument can be made that we are selling short a Fire team that won 6 in a row to win the SE Division, but when we look at who they beat (Tampa twice, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Birmingham), we are not so sure they are for real.

10—Michigan Panthers (9-7)               Down from 1st in preseason poll

They fought their way into a Wild Card on Week 16, but that 3-game streak of losses to St. Louis, Ohio, and Arizona still worries us about their ability to win on the road in the playoffs.

11—Portland Stags (9-7)                        Up from 28th in preseason poll.

No doubt that this is much higher than anyone thought for the Stags this year. Back-to-back wins at Oakland and Oklahoma to get a Wild Card means they could be a dangerous road team in the playoffs.

12—Charlotte Monarchs (9-7)           Down from 5th in preseason poll.

After leading the SE Division for much of the year, the Monarchs seem to be fading, and having their QB lead the league in picks is not something that often spells postseason success.

13—Washington Federals (9-7)         Up from 26th in preseason poll.

The Feds came within a hair of being a playoff team, and many might argue that they are a better team than Charlotte, but we cannot place them higher than 13th if they did not make the postseason dance.

14—Denver Gold (9-7)                             Down from 8th in preseason poll.

Denver, like Washington, just missed out on a Wild Card due to a tiebreaker, or is it due to losing to Oklahoma, twice.

15—Seattle Dragons (8-8)                     Down from 14th in preseason poll.

A nice recovery from an 0-5 start. Not the Cinderella run of last year, but a nice recovery. Now… how do they start their season better next year?

16—Las Vegas Vipers (7-9)                   Down from 10th in preseason poll.

Week 15 and 16 victories with Eli back at the helm was a nice sendoff for their QB, but now they need to find a replacement. We don’t think Jeff Tuel is the guy.

17—Pittsburgh Maulers (8-8)              Up from 20th in preseason poll.

So much promise this year, so many good early results, but losing their final 4 games is just a nasty way to end up the year. They had a shot in Week 16 to make it all better, but again came up short and finish a disappointing 8-8.

18—Birmingham Stallions (7-9)        Down from 16th in preseason poll.

We said it early on this year, another 8-8 or 7-9 season would not bode well for Coach Ellard, and that is exactly what happened. And, one thing we should not ignore, this was a team that went 7-1 at home and 0-8 on the road. Something their new coach will have to fix in 2019.

19—Philadelphia Stars (7-9)                Down from 3rd in preseason poll.

So much was expected of Philadelphia this year, and we cannot blame the disappointing year on the Derrick Henry injury, they were not finding consistent success before he went down. Tough decisions ahead for Coach Harbaugh.

20—Baltimore Blitz (6-10)                     Down from 11th in preseason poll.

The Blitz played hard for Coach Caldwell down the stretch, winning their final 2, both against playoff teams, but the Blitz need to figure out both their 22nd rated run game and their very disappointing 24th rated scoring defense.

21—Chicago Machine (7-9)                  Down from 19th in preseason poll.

A 1-game improvement over 2017, but they need more. With the 19th rated passing game, and Aaron Dobson likely headed out the door, Chicago will need to focus on the passing game this offseason.

22—Oklahoma Outlaws (7-9)             Down from 15th in preseason poll.

Another midling season meant the end of a long tenure for Tom Ramsey as head coach. Now the Outlaws start over, but with some nice pieces in place. But, let’s remember that in 2020, the new San Antonio Gunslingers get to claim some of those pieces.

23—Orlando Renegades (6-10)         No change from preseason poll.

Another year, another disappointing season, and this time it was too much for Coach Fox, who resigned officially on Monday. The Renegades seemed to sense that it was over, losing their last 5 to drop to a 10-loss season.

24—St. Louis Skyhawks (5-11)           Up from 27th in preseason poll.

All the talk in St. Louis is about Lamar Jackson, but he will need more around him on offense, and a lot of new pieces for the 28th ranked defense.

25—Jacksonville Bulls (4-12)              No change from preseason poll.

Coach Flores gets a 2nd year, is likely hoping for a new QB, and will need to improve the HB & WR positions, along with a defense that just did not come through this year.

26—Tampa Bay Bandits (3-13)           Down from 24th in preseason poll.

The 2-year June Jones era is over. The Bandits, who were 4th in the league in yardage, just did not have enough scoring power or enough stopping power on defense to compete this year.

27—Los Angeles Express (3-13)        Down from 22nd in preseason poll.

That is right. The Express have the 1st pick in the draft, but we are not putting them dead last in our rankings. They are bad, no doubt, but Dallas just gave up this year.

28—Dallas Roughnecks (3-13)          Down from 17th in preseason poll.

It is 1 thing to wallow in self pity when your starting QB is suspended for the year, and even though the Roughnecks tried to fix things by trading for Josh Freeman, losing 9 consecutive games to end the season has to put you in last place as a team that simply did not fight for their pride as the season wore on.

It is July, so it is playoff season in the USFL. We just missed 4th of July weekend this year (well, since the 4th is on a Wednesday, we all kind of missed out on a holiday weekend. We have 4 Wild Card games, only one of which is a divisional battle, but what a battle it will be. Here is what you need to know about each matchup ahead of this weekend’s wild action.

6-Charlotte Monarchs (9-7) @ 3-New Jersey Generals (9-6-1)

Saturday, July 7 @ 3pm ET

MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Generals -3

Two teams that still have a lot of doubters. Charlotte has lost 3 of 4 to find themselves dropping from the 2-seed down to the 6th, and even that was only due to a strength of schedule tiebreaker. New Jersey is only 3 weeks beyond a 13-0 debacle against Washington, but they did win those 3 games to get here, and to earn the right to host this game. We all know what the key is for New Jersey, get Maurice Jones-Drew cranking early and often, force Charlotte to bring men up to the line and then surprise them with some play action.

Charlotte’s strategy could be very similar as they try to keep Mitch Trubisky in short third downs. The concern for Charlotte has to be Trubisky’s tendency to put the ball up when he should either take the sack or throw it away. When you lead the league with 21 picks in 15 starts, well, turnovers are going to be a concern.

OUR PICK: We are going to go with the Generals. They have won 3 in a row to get here, have more to offer on offense, and can play solid D as well. New Jersey 18-13.

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5-Michigan Panthers (9-7) @ 4-San Diego Thunder (10-6)

Saturday, July 7 @ 7pm ET

Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA

Thunder -4

The Thunder survive an 0-4 start, winning 10 of 12 to get here. Meanwhile, Michigan has been an extremely inconsistent defending champion. They needed to win their last two (Chicago and at Seattle) just to get here. But, in those two games they did show some spirit, so we could be seeing the fires reignite in Michigan just in time. The Panthers will ride LeVeon Bell as much as they can, especially with Rob Housler out and Jerrel Jernigan still not at 100%.

San Diego has their own run game, led by Ryan Williams, but it has been Ponder to Colston that has ignited the Thunder over the past 3 months. San Diego has won 4 in a row, including impressive wins over the Stags and Dragons. They will be at home, where they suffered a bad loss in last year’s Wild Card round, and certainly they don’t want to repeat that.

OUR PICK: There is something about a culture of success. We know it may be counter-intuitive, but we think Michigan has rediscovered their passion and now that it is playoff time we may see a team much more like the one that ran through last year’s postseason and claimed a title. We are going with the Panthers, but in a tight one: Michigan 28-27.

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6-Portland Stags (9-7) @ 3-Ohio Glory (10-6)

Sunday, July 8 @ 3pm ET

Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

Glory -7

These are two great stories, neither expected to be here. Portland, after all, was our choice in the preseason to be the worst team in the league. What did we miss? Well, Marcus Mariota taking a huge leap forward, Ben Tate becoming a back capable of 1,000 yards (he finished with 972 due to an injury costing him 2 games), and a defense that does not have big names but gives up only 289 total yards per game (2nd best in the league.)

Ohio, who has started 4 different QBs this year, has their Week 1 starter back in Christian Hackenberg, has a solid inside-outside run game with Isaiah Pead and Delone Carter, and a defense that saw 15 different players record a sack while holding teams under 19 points per game. So, here is the weird thing, an argument can be made that if this game is in the teens, it could favor both teams. Neither has a quick-strike, shoot-out-ready offense. These are two clubs that love to milk the clock, stick around, and get just enough points to win. Almost mirror images of each other.

OUR PICK: The two played way back in Week 8 and Ohio doubled up Portland in Portland, 28-14. We don’t think it will be that dramatic, but we still think Ohio is the more disciplined team (thanks, Coach Coughlin) and the more battle-tested in the Central Division. We are going with the favored Glory to move on to the next round. Ohio 21-17.

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5-Memphis Showboats (11-5) @ 4-Houston Gamblers (12-4)

Sunday, July 8 @ 7pm ET

NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Gamblers -4.5

Oh, man, will this one be fun. The two met this past weekend in Memphis, and the Gamblers snuck out with a 17-13 win. Earlier in the year Memphis won in Houston 27-20, so home field does not appear to be a big issue. Of course, this is home field in the playoffs. Houston is the more talented team, that goes without saying, but Memphis has proven they can play with the big boys, beating both the Gamblers and the Breakers this season.

This is a game where we think the final score tells us who wins. Memphis’s defense and run game is the key to their success, while Houston (whose defense is solid) is all about big plays, big scores, and lead the league at nearly 28 points per game. So, if the game is in the teens, that certainly means Memphis has found some answers. If it is in the 30’s, that tells us Houston has the edge and is connecting on big plays.

OUR PICK: Houston remains very hungry after losing to the Panthers in Summer Bowl 2017, and there is a fear that Memphis, coming off a 6-10 season only a year ago, may suffer from the “happy to be here” syndrome that often hits newly-successful playoff teams. It is also hard to pick against a team that may have the league MVP in McCoy, the OPOTY in Mike Evans, and a HB with over 1,500 yards from scrimmage in Hyde. We think this one gets away from Rex Ryan, his defense, and his eager, but inexperienced club. Houston gets their mojo working and wins this one. Gamblers 33-24.