2018 USFL Wild Card Weekend Recap

USFL LIVES
5 hours ago
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Was it a week of nail biting, last second, down to the wire action? No, it was not, with the margins of victory in Wild Card Weekend being 32, 15, 21, and 11 points, this was not the weekend for late game drama. What we did see was a clear separation from the “knew they should be there” and the “glad to be there” crowds. In both conferences what we got were the 5 and 6 seeds being eliminated, and the 3 and 4 seeds moving on to the Divisional round, which should not feel so strange, and yet we have gotten so used to Wild Card Weekend upsets, that it does feel a bit strange to see a Divisional Round featuring exclusively the 1-seed against the 4, and the 3 visiting the 2.

Regardless of the large differential in games, and the victories by all 4 home favorites, it was still playoff football, and we will break down each game for you. We will also discuss the spate of retirement announcements over the past week, including a few players who may well be very difficult for their teams to replace. We will take a look at the QB situation among all 28 teams as we prepare for the offseason, and we will get you up to speed on early interviews for the league’s 5 vacant coaching positions. We kick it all off with our look at the week’s retirement news.

QBs Lead Early Retirements

Wildcard Weekend brings two things every year, the excitement of playoff football and the realization that rosters will change this offseason. It is too early for free agency, that starts up 4 days after Summer Bowl 2018, but with the end of the season for 16 of the league’s 28 teams, we start to get the first wave of retirement announcements. These are often players who have notified their teams, if no one else, that they intend to hang up their cleats at the end of the year. The week only makes those decisions public. So far, at this early stage, it seems safe to say that there are no big shockers, with most of the announcements somewhat expected. But, that does not mean that these will not be players who will be missed by their squads. We start with the 2 quarterbacks whose retirements we already knew well in advance, and then we will hit the rest of the impactful announcements from the week.

Eli Manning, QB-LV

This was known and celebrated for the latter half of the season, but it will still be a huge hit for a Vipers team still trying to find an identity after moving from Nashville. Manning is considered by many a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, borderline only because he never won a title. But with over 40,000 yards passing and 214 TDs, Manning certainly was a franchise QB, and a great addition to the new franchise in Sin City. Finding a replacement to become the new face of the franchise will be job one for Coach Neuheisel, GM Phil Savage, and the entire Vipers organization.

Matt Leinart, QB-DEN

After 14 seasons as the starter in Denver, Matt Leinart leaves with a lot of fond memories, but no championship ring. Leinart is another borderline Hall of Fame candidate. The stats are there, again 40,000 yards, 239 touchdowns, but no title. He had one of his best seasons in 2018, with 21 TDs to only 8 picks, but it still was not enough to get Denver to the playoffs. The Gold, quite distinct from Las Vegas’s situation, already have their QB of the Future (now QB of the Present) in house as 1st round draft pick Josh Allen spent the entire season watching, learning, and working with QB guru Jordan Palmer to transition his game to the pro level in preparation for the job in 2019.

Bob Sanders, SS-CHI

After 15 seasons in the USFL, first with Washington, then New Jersey, and finally Chicago, Bob Sanders has been perennially solid, occasionally great, winning All-USFL accolades 3 times. He retires with over 1,000 tackles (1074), 38 sacks, 16 picks, and over 200 starts.

Patrick Chung, SS-JAX

Another veteran centerfielder, Chung spent most of his career in Houston, winning a title with the Gamblers in 2010. He made his lone All-USFL team in 2015 with the Gamblers, and parlayed that season into a nice contract with Jacksonville. He retires with 624 tackles, 21 sacks, and 7 career picks.

Jason Taylor, LB/Edge-BAL

Taylor came to the USFL after several very strong years in the NFL, mostly with Miami. He was expected to be a 2-3 year bridge player, but retires after 9 years in the league. He produced only 42 sacks in those 9 years, but was solid against the run and helped Baltimore claim their only league title in team history in 2014.

Paul Posluszny, LB-PIT

The “Poz” (a nice riff on USFL HOFer Brian Bosworth), was a fixture in the middle for several teams over his USFL career. He came into the league in the 2007 Draft and was a 1st day starter in Philadelphia. After 3 seasons in Philly he moved on to Orlando before finishing his career in Pittsburgh. Known for his ability to stuff the run or drop back into coverage, Poz retires with 174 starts, 1,038 tackles, 20 sacks and 18 picks.

Will Allen, FS-BIR

A 15-year veteran of the USFL, Allen made a name for himself in Oakland before moving on to Boston/Dallas, and finishing with 2 one-year stints in Tampa Bay and Birmingham. A ball-hawking safety, Allen could also dish out the hits. He retires with 747 tackles, 34 picks, 18 sacks, and 8 career defensive TDs.

CB Cortland Finnegan-PHI

In both Orlando and Philadelphia “Finn” was considered an outstanding zone coverage corner who was also solid with tackles in the run game. He retires with 901 tackles and 39 picks. He was also a quick study of the “Peanut Punch”, producing 15 forced fumbles after picking up the famous Cedrick Tillman punch move in his tackles.

Erik Pears, OT-LA

After 14 years in the league and 10 locking down the right side of the LA Express line, Pears retires at 35 years old. He became the regular starter in 2008 and was known for his pancake blocks in the run game.

Mike Nugent, K-PHI

A career Star, Nugent retires with a career 82.2 FG% (396 of 482), 1682 career points, topping Philly legend David Trout in PATs made, while finishing 2nd in Philly history in several other kicking categories. But, the one category that may well be remembered for a long time was an accomplishment this year, when he connected on a league record tying 63-yard field goal, matching Jeff Hall’s 2008 record. The kick gives him a 63, 62, and 61 yarder in his career, placing him on the Top 10 list for longest USFL kicks three times.

Others announcing this week include tight ends Delanie Walker (DEN) and Brent Celek (LA), Wideouts Harry Douglas (BAL) and Erik Decker (STL), linemen Stacy Andrews (CHI), Carl Nicks (TBY), Deuce Lutui (STL), and Nick Hardwick (JAX), and DT Atiyyah Ellison (WSH). We also know that QB Drew Brees is stepping away, but he still has work to do this year with the Breakers in action this week in the Divisional Playoffs.

CHARLOTTE MONARCHS 6 NEW JERSEY GENERALS 38

This game felt competitive for 30 minutes, with the Generals holding a reasonable 14-6 lead at the half, but the second half saw complete and utter domination by the Generals, scoring the only points of the half and adding 24 unanswered to their 8-point lead. And if you missed the game and are wondering how it could have turned so severely, there is one obvious reason, Mitch Trubisky had to leave the game midway through the 2nd quarter with a rib injury that simply made it impossible for him to put any velocity on his passes. Backup Tyler Thigpen, having had very few snaps in practice, was simply not ready to come in, taking 3 big sacks, throwing a costly pick early in the 3rd, and simply faltering in place of the season-long starter.

Add to these issues a New Jersey defense that was so keyed in on HB Adrian Peterson, that the former NFL star was held to a ludicrous 13 yards on 12 attempts. That is a miserable 1.1 yards per carry. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Maurice Jones Drew was averaging 5.5 per touch, including 2 touchdowns, as the Generals just poured on the points in the second half. In addition to the two MJD scores, New Jersey got TD passes from Foles to both Muhamed Sanu and Odell Beckham Jr, as well as a game-closing pick-six from Quinton Carter.

It was exactly what General fans wanted, a dominant performance and a confidence-builder as they prepare to face the 2-seed Atlanta Fire next week. For Charlotte, it was everything they dreaded, an injury to a key player, a failure to establish balance, and an overall let down that included 2 missed field goals, 10 of 14 third down conversions failing, and a general lack of comeback ability once things started to go south.

Stars of the Game: HB Maurice Jones-Drew: 26 Att, 144 Yds, 2 TD

LB Chase Blackburn: 10 Tck, 1 PDef

CB Aqib Talib: 9 Tck, 4 PDef

MICHIGAN PANTHERS 37 SAN DIEGO THUNDER 48

The second game of Saturday’s slate felt quite a bit more competitive, with Michigan coming back on San Diego multiple times, but when you look over the boxscore, what you notice is that despite this sense that it was a closer game than the final score indicated, you see that the Thunder took a 7-point lead late in the 2nd quarter and would never trail again. Their lead fluctuated, from 7 points to 144, then 7, then 14 again, then 11, then 4, then bac ku to 11, and 17, before finally settling at 11 for the final score. So, yes, Michigan was in the game, but they never retook the lead after that 2nd quarter score.

So, how did the Thunder do it. Two things were clear, they were going to allow LeVeon Bell to have his share of runs, but they were going to focus on making life miserable for Kirk Cousins. They may have only sacked him twice, but he took countless hits, had to scramble out of the pocket far more than he likes to do, and he did force two bad throws, both picked off (it honestly could have been 3 or 4 picks). On offense, San Diego found the big plays that eluded the Panthers, with a 74-yard throw to Colston, along with a 42-yard TD toss, a 64-yarder to DeVante Parker, and a 44-yard throw and catch to Nick Toon. The big “chunk” plays were nearly all for San Diego, especially in the second half.

Michigan started quite strong, putting up the first 13 points of the game, worrying the San Diego faithful that they would be in for another rough outing in the postseason, but the Thunder rallied in the 2nd quarter, scoring a ridiculous 27 points to fly past the Panthers in a span of barely 10 minutes. In that span, we saw 2 field goals by Reed, followed by a TD from Ponder to Toon, then a pick by Cousins, leading to the Marques Colston 42-yard score, and then, to rub it in, a 2nd Cousins pick, this one returned all the way for 6 by LB Myles Jack. So, from a 13-0 deficit, the Thunder went into the half with a 27-13 advantage.

Michigan fought back, starting with a LeVeon Bell TD run to open the 3rd, but every time they did, San Diego had a response. A Ryan Williams TD run from 15 yards out, Colston’s 2nd TD, and finally the big throw to DeVante Parker that put San Diego up 18 with only 6 minutes to play. Yes, Michigan pulled back 7 points, but they needed 3 scores and that was simply not going to happen. The defending champs were simply not the same team this year. The fire was not there, the breaks did not go their way, and the Thunder were simply the better team on the day, giving the city its first ever USFL home playoff victory celebration.

Stars of the Game: QB Christian Ponder: 15/29, 322 Yds, 4 TD, 0 int

WR Marques Colston: 4 Rec, 133 Yds, 2 TD

LB Myles Jack: 2 Tck, 1 Int, 1 Def TD

PORTLAND STAGS 10 OHIO GLORY 31

Another good start that quickly turned ugly as Portland put up the first points of the game in Columbus, then suffered as the Glory responded with a 31-3 run to walk away with the game and set up a matchup with Oakland next week. The Ohio defense, often unsung and certainly not stocked with big names, did their job for sure, sacking Mariota 4 times, securing a pick-six in the final minutes of the game, and holding Tate & Martin to a respectable, but not game-impacting 80 yards combined.

The Ohio offense was not splashy, their longest score on the day was from the 9-yard line, but what they lacked in explosiveness, they made up for in efficiency. Pead and Carter combined for 133 yards and a score. Hackenberg completed 19 of 25 passes, while getting sacked only once by the anemic Stag pass rush. That combination forced Portland to play vanilla defense, and in drips and drabs, medium gains, short gains, and key 3rd downs, Ohio just kept adding points. The Glory won the turnover battle 2-0, held the ball for 5 more minutes, had 7 more first downs, and were better on 3rd down. When you can say all that, you are probably winning that game.

Stars of the Game: QB Christian Hackenberg: 19/25, 200 Yds, 2 TD, 0 Int

WR Mario Manningham: 8 Rec, 88 Yds, 1 TD

SS Ryan Neal: 5 Tck, 1 PDef, 1 Int, 1 Def TD

MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS 20 HOUSTON GAMBLERS 35

Perhaps the most purely entertaining of the week’s games, something we largely expected out of these two Southern Division foes. The Showboats outpaced the Gamblers, with 448 yards of offense to Houston’s 378, but a 3-1 turnover deficit and 7 penalties to Houston’s lone infraction, all paired with yet another scoring streak, a period when Houston went from a 13-7 deficit to a 35-13 advantage, and this game swung towards the team that simply made more big plays.

The Gamblers fell down 13-7 after a 2nd quarter Lynch to Clayton TD, and the score stayed their until the half, creating a lot of nervous Texans at the snack bars during the break. But, as so often happens in the USFL, halftime adjustments swung momentum. Houston would score 28 unanswered points before Memphis added a late TD, opening up the 3rd with a long McCoy to Evans TD pass, then adding another to Vernon Davis. The 4th quarter saw Carlos Hyde score on consecutive drives and it was 35-13 and all those nervous Texans were now ready to party.

Hyde would win the game MVP for his 111 rushing yards, 67 receiving yards, and 3 combined TDs, but this was just as much a victory for the Houston defense, which held Memphis out of scoring range for the better part of the second half, giving up a late TD only after they had built out a 22-point advantage. They got 3 picks, including 2 from CB Janoris Jenkins (in for the injured Leodis McKelvin) and held Todd Gurley to only 2.6 yards per carry on his way to a 45-yard day.

Houston now moves on to another huge Southern Division clash, as they will visit New Orleaans to take on the Breakers, both clubs sitting with identical 12-4 records, but Houston having to play the extra week due to a tiebreaker costing them the division crown.

Stars of the Game: HB Carlos Hyde: 18 Att, 111 Yds, 2 TD, 2 Rec, 67 Yds, 1 TD

QB Colt McCoy: 16/29, 262 Yds, 4 TD, 1 Int

CB Janoris Jenkins: 8 Tck, 5 PDef, 2 Int

MJD and Generals topple the Monarchs

Maurice Jones-Drew has not been shy all season long about his role in the Generals’ offense, his desire to be considered for a major award, and his desire to turn stats into wins. Well, he certainly attained the latter this week, with a dominant performance against Charlotte pushing the Generals into a Divisional Round matchup with another Southeastern team in Atlanta. It was not a game where MJD broke off big run after big run. He did have a very nice 29-yarder for his longest of the day, but it was a constant barrage of 4, 5, and 6-yard runs that wore down the Monarchs and helped New Jersey dominate the second half.

MJD finished with 144 yards rushing, 2 touchdowns, and a 5.5 YPC average, all testaments to the power and stamina of “Pocket Hercules”. He may be disappointed when the MVP or OPOTY votes come out (solid money is on a QB for the former, and on either Bell or Evans for the latter), but there is no doubt that MJD is turning stats into wins and that he has the full respect of the league, and the full attention of the Atlanta Fire coming up this week.

Ponder Shines vs. Michigan

If there was any questioning of Coach LeBeau’s decision to keep Christian Ponder at the helm of the San Diego offense when season starter Joe Webb came back from injury, his performance in this week’s Wild Card matchup against the defending league champs certainly put that to bed. Ponder was at his best, throwing 4 touchdowns and no picks against a very talented Michigan secondary that features Dre Kirkpatrick and Jabril Peppers.

Ponder was under pressure from the Panthers, who blitzed him often, but still completed 15 of 29 passes, averaging over 11 yards per completion, and finding big plays to multiple receivers, including a 42-yard TD to Colston, a 64-yard score to DeVante Parker, and a beautiful 44-yard scrambling throw to Nick Toon. The former NFL “washout” showed he had the stuff to be a true difference maker for the Thunder. He and Marques Colston have become tight, and it shows on the field. So, now the question is not who starts for San Diego when they head to Arizona to face the Wranglers, but what the Thunder will do with Webb this offseason. The veteran starter is under contract through 2019, but will he play second fiddle, demand a trade, or compete with Ponder in camp?

Ohio “Who Dey” Defense Shut Out Stags in 2nd Half

Yes, it is a bit of copyright infringement to call the Ohio Glory defense the “Who Dey” defense. After all, it is in-state NFL “rival” Cincinnati who coined the “Who Dey” chant, but at the same time, many of the Glory fans also claim the Bengals as their team, and, to be honest, when you look across the Glory defense, it might make sense to ask “Who dey?”. This is not a team with a lot of names you might recognize, though certainly team captain James Laurinaitis certainly made a name for himself when he was playing for the Buckeyes. Others, like Marcel Dareus, Kamerion Wemberley, and Ryan Shazier should be bigger names around the league. Their play the past few seasons has merited more attention than this club from the center of the Buckeye state often gets.

After knocking Michigan from the top of the Central Division, shutting out Marcus Mariota and the Stags for the final 30 minutes of their Wild Card game, and winning their first playoff game since 2007, you know fans in Columbus are aware of this defense. And they are not alone, you can bet that there are a lot of folks in Oakland who are very aware of how good the “Who Dey” defense has been playing for the Glory. Coach Kubiak and the Invader offense is going to be taking that question very seriously, as they try to not only learn who “dey” are, but what they can and cannot do against the Invader offense.

Houston’s 28-0 Scoring Run Sinks Showboats

To say that Houston won a game by simply outscoring an opponent is nothing new. They were doing that long before Colt McCoy became the starter. But, when you pair regular TD drives with regular stops on defense, well, that just seems unfair. That is what happened during a 28-0 run that turned a 13-7 deficit into a devastating 35-13 lead for the Gamblers.

It is all the names you would expect it to be—McCoy, Hyde, Evans, Smith-Schuster, Davis—too many topflight offensive weapons for nearly any defense to handle. Certainly it is a talent pool that the Breakers and Coach Lamar Lathon, a former All-USFL linebacker himself, are well aware of. The Breakers had their difficulties with Houston’s talented offense this year, giving up 31 and 38 points in their split-series with the Gamblers. They won in Week 3 by outscoring Houston in a shootout, then lost 38-35 6 weeks later. So now they face that potent offense, but also the possibility that the Gambler D is just a bit more coherent, a nasty combination, but one the 1-seed need to have an answer for if they want to move on in the postseason.

Thunder Lose Sack Leader in Wild Card Win

It was not all sunshine and high fives in San Diego’s 48-37 victory over Michigan. They might have taken a significant hit when DE Jonathan Newsome went down with an ankle issue. Newsome was a revelation for the Thunder this year, racking up 15 sacks to lead the club. He added a 16th, along with several pressures, against Michigan, but midway through the 4th quarter he went down after stepping on the foot of the OT, and landing awkwardly. The ankle could be solid enough for him to make an appearance in the Conference Championship, but in order to do that, he will have to miss this week’s Divisional game at Arizona. Sen’Drick Marks, who had only 3 sacks this season, will step in, but may well struggle to fill the shoes of the Thunder’s best edge rusher.

Shaq Mason To Miss Playoff Run for Gamblers

Another injury that could impact the Divisional round is in Houston, where the Gamblers lost center Shaq Mason for the rest of the playoffs after the big man got caught in a dogpile and emerged with a fracture to his right arm. Mason will not be able to play even if Houston reaches the Summer Bowl, meaning that they will have to turn to Travis Swanson, who has a total of 42 snaps at center this season. There is some speculation that Houston may also sub in tackle Marcus Cannon at center periodically to ensure more continuity on the line. Cannon would move over from RT and Chad Rinehart would take over on the end. Either way, it is a significant adjustment for an offense that is about as complex and demands as much as any in the league from their linemen.

We have highlighted the two major injuries that came out of the Wild Card round. Here is the full injury list for all four upcoming Divisional games.

NJ: HB Kiero Small (OUT)

ATL: WR Pharoh Cooper (OUT), G Trevor Canfield (OUT), DE William Gholston (D)

DT Sione Pouha (P)

OHI: SS Tyran Mathieu (OUT)

OAK: LB Tavares Gooden (OUT), DT Rakeem Nunes-Roches (P)

HOU: C Shaq Mason (OUT), CB Leodis McKelvin (OUT), SS Budda Baker (OUT),

DT R. J. McIntosh (P)

NOR: OT Willie Colon (OUT), CB Tra’Davious White (Q)

SD: DE Jonathan Newsome (OUT), FS Mark Barron (OUT), LB A. J. Hawk (P)

ARZ: QB David Carr (OUT), DE Da’Shawn Hand (D)

COACHING CAROUSEL

We start our look around the league with updates on the five vacant head coaching positions. Not a lot of action yet, but we are starting to see some feelers going out, and some interest in coaches currently under contract with the league’s playoff teams.

Birmingham: The Stallions are still looking to fill the GM position first, so we expect some pause before they get serious about the head coach position. With both positions open, there is a chance we see Birmingham delay any coaching search until the conclusion of the NFL fall season, though that only makes sense if their top target is a current NFL coach. If they are going for a USFL coordinator, they could act sooner, but it seems clear they want a new GM to be part of that process.

Los Angeles: The Express seem eager to get someone signed, but just who remains a mystery. Rumors have them speaking with former Seattle Dragon coach Marvin Lewis, former NFL head coach Jon Gruden, and recently released Oklahoma Coach Tom Ramsey (a former Express QB back in the 80’s).

Oklahoma: No word yet on if the Outlaws have been in communication with former OH head coach Bob Stoops, but we do know that fans in the state want that to happen. They have asked about setting up a time to speak with Oakland DC Reggie Herring, but that won’t happen as long as Herring has work to do with the Invaders in the playoffs.

Orlando: The Renegades may well be the club closest to announcing a hire as they seem to have locked their eyes on former Mauler head coach Ron Rivera. Rivera would be a defensive-minded hire, which makes sense if they want to keep Calais Campbell happy, and, certainly, Rivera brings a solid resume with him. Orlando is also very likely going to try to find a big-name OC as well, in an effort to revive a group that was pretty hit-and-miss this year, but likely will not do so until they have their head coach in place.

Tampa Bay: Nothing yet out of Bandit camp, where word is that Steve Spurrier is not a candidate for a 3rd tenure at the helm of the club he helped build in the 80s. Some fans on local sports radio may want a 3rd Spurrier regime, but it seems that neither the Bandits nor Spurrier himself have any interest in a 3rd term for the “Head Ball Coach”.

Could Memphis Lose Clayton & Marshall to Free Agency?

There is no shortage of teams with potential contract conundrums. From Arizona having to let the league’s QB Rating leader go because they are locked in on David Carr as their starter, Seattle discovering how good Matt McGloin can be, and then having to let him loose as well, but Memphis’s WR situation may be one of the toughest. Memphis has pretty good cap space for this offseason, more than enough to resign some key players and still go shopping in free agency and the draft for some roster improvements. That is a good position for a team who went 11-5 to be able to boast, but they also have a few players making what many would call unrealistic demands.

At the top of the list are two of their top receivers. Mark Clayton, who finished 2nd in both receptions and yards (79 for 843) and Brandon Marshall, who is used mostly in 3-WR sets as a deep threat, are both asking for pretty big pay increases. Of course, with Robert Woods signed for the next 3 seasons, any pay hike for either, but especially Clayton, is likely to produce a demand for renegotiation from Woods as well, after all, he was the leader in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, so he certainly can ask to be the highest paid receiver.

Now, throw in DE Mario Williams, who is looking for Von Miller money in a contract year, FS Calvin Pryor, who wants to renegotiate his deal, LB Jarvis Jones, and backup QB Kyle Orton, and the Showboats, even with a good cap situation, could have some tough decisions to make. They don’t want to give up on both of their wideouts, especially not in a division with Houston and New Orleans among the league leaders in offense, but they may have to try to find some up-and-comers and let 1-2 key players go if they want to be financially sound going into 2019. They may not be alone in this situation, but after rising from 6-10 to 11-5, there are more players than ever looking to cash in from their success this year, and that means some are going to do so, and others may have to do so elsewhere.

QB Situations Around USFL a Major Offseason Focus

Sure, we could probably say this every season, but with several major retirements across the league, along with some big performances from QBs headed into free agency, and quite a few teams either in flux or seeking to upgrade at the game’s most essential position, it seems only appropriate that we look across the league and see what we see when it comes to the QB position in the 2018-2019 offseason. We are going to clump teams into groups based on how established they are and what they might be looking for this offseason, so this is not a team-by-team analysis, though some teams will get the spotlight, based on their unique situations.

TEAMS STANDING PAT

These are clubs that have a solid 1-2-3 depth chart, all signed and ready to move ahead with no changes needed or wanted. Not to say that any one of these clubs would pass on a good prospect in the draft, but don’t expect any of them to make major moves for a starter, future franchise guy, or to trade away their talent.

Who is in the group?: Baltimore, Birmingham, Charlotte, Oakland, Oklahoma, Philadelphia, Pitttsburgh, Portland.

Team to Watch?: This is not really a group where we expect much to happen, but if we had to pick one team that may shake things up and surprise us, it has to be Birmingham. Until they have a new GM and HC in place we won’t know what to expect. But is it really likely that they dump Cam Newton, even with his mixed results and up-and-down play? No. More likely is that they try to find a backup who more closely parallels’ Newton’s style. Would they go after RG3 as a quasi-Newton clone? McCarron certainly is not Newton Jr, so it is not out of the question.

TEAMS WITH A POSSIBLE QB CONTROVERSY FOR 2019

These are teams that seem to have some options already on their roster but may not yet have a very obvious 1-2-3 ranking after this year. These teams are also potential landing spots for a player like Ryan Fitzpatrick, who could compete for a starting job, or may sit back as a 2, ready to jump in if needed.

Who is in the Group? Dallas, Jacksonville, Los Angeles, New Jersey, San Diego, Seattle, Tampa Bay.

Team to Watch?: This group really falls into 2 subcategories, teams looking to upgrade if a chance presents itself (Bandits, Dragons, Generals, Express) and teams looking to have 2 options because they are not sold on their number one (Bulls with Bridgewater, Roughnecks with Freeman and an unsettled Manziel situation). And then there is San Diego, who now seem set with Ponder at number one, but what does that mean for Webb? Is he on the block? Is he kept as insurance? The Thunder are in an interesting situation.

TEAMS IN SEARCH OF A FRANCHISE STARTER AT QB

Every year we have several such teams, but this year we know that retirement will drive several teams to try to find a franchise guy, not just a workable starter.

Who is in the Group?: Chicago, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Washington

Two certain retirements (Manning & Brees), one potential retirement we are still unsure of (Garrard) and a decision to let Fitz-magic walk in Free Agency put these teams in this situation.

Team to Watch: The Machine, Vipers, and Breakers are all losing an established starter (Chicago to free agency, the other two to retirement), so expect them to look long and hard at the rookie class. But our most interesting team is Washington. It all depends on what happens with David Garrard. Rumors have him stepping away, but he has not said anything yet, at least not publicly. The Feds are letting backup Mike Flynn walk, so that means they could be in the market for both a starter and a backup, which is a tough way to start an offseason.

TEAMS LOOKING FOR A VETERAN

These are teams with young talent at the starting position, but they want someone to help mentor that starter, so, not really looking for competition, but a solid backup who can step in if needed and who will serve as a teacher for their young protégé.

Who is in the Group?: Denver, Memphis

We could be putting Washington, Seattle, or Tampa Bay here, depending on what they end up deciding about their current starter. Does Garrard return? Is Brissett the clear number one? What does Prescott need to turn stats into wins, and who will be coaching the Bandits?

Team to Watch?: Memphis loves what they got from Lynch this year, so they just want to see him continue to grow. Denver does not yet know what they have in Allen, though they love his attitude and work ethic, so they may well be looking for a veteran backup who can not only mentor the young Wyoming product, but also potentially step in if Allen’s issues with accuracy have not improved with a season of QB guru Jordan Palmer’s attention.

TEAMS WHO MAY BE LOOKING FOR A DEVELOPMENTAL QB

These are teams who have veteran leadership, maybe even a solid number 2, but want to look for the future. We all saw what happened in Houston as the Gamblers developed Colt McCoy over several years while Hasselbeck was still on the squad. McCoy stepped in without the team skipping a beat and they may now have an MVP QB once again. Expect teams to look in the mid-rounds of the draft for a guy who has a high ceiling but needs time.

Who is in the Group?: Arizona, Michigan, New Jersey, Orlando

We repeated on New Jersey because we are just not sure if they love Foles or just see him as a bridge to a true franchise option. The others all have solid starters, if not All-USFL QBs at the helm, so they just want to put something in reserve for the future.

Team to Watch?: Arizona is a fascinating case. They have a 2-time MVP in Carr, then saw Ryan Nassib put together a possible MVP season this year, but Nassib was in a contract year and the Wranglers just don’t have the funds to resign him or the option to offer him the full-time starting gig, so he is on the market as soon as the Wranglers’ playoff run is over. That leaves a big hole behind Carr, but after seeing how Coach Tomsula developed Nassib in only 2 years, we think they go for a mid-draft QB and try to do the exact same thing.

If your team was not here, what does it mean. Most likely it means that their only QB move is to add a low-cost number 3, or maybe sign a backup who could maybe be a 2, but has no specific need to do something dramatic. So, not much to say for teams like St. Louis, Ohio, or Atlanta, who simply will focus in other areas for impact additions to their teams.

And, just for those of you wondering, who is available in both the free agent pool and the potential rookie class of 2019. Here is a quick breakdown:

USFL Free Agents: This is the best, deepest, and most interesting pool, with potential 2018 MVP Ryan Nassib here, along with Matt McGloin, who Seattle simply cannot afford to keep, Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is likely not a clearcut starter after several up-and-down years in Chicago, and Robert Griffin III, who has had his wow moments, but few wins in Jacksonville. Add in some veteran backups like Kyle Orton, Brett Hundley, Mike Flynn, and you have a very deep pool.

NFL Free Agents: Way too early to know who will be in the pool when the 2018 NFL season is over, because there are a lot of great options in contract years, but we know most will not be there come January. Available right now for the upcoming September pool, the biggest name is former NY Jets QB Geno Smith, along with controversial former 49er Colin Kaepernick, and backups Mike Glennon and Josh Johnson.

Rookie Class of 2019: The top prospects expected to come out in the 2019 draft class include Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray, Duke’s Daniel Jones, Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins, and Missouri’s Drew Lock. This is not as flashy a class as 2018, but it may have more depth, with some good looking 2nd-5th round options like West Virginia’s Will Grier, Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham, or another guy with huge numbers in the FBS, North Dakota State’s Easton Stick.

On to the divisional matchups, and that means 4 more games over 2 weeks, now with the top 4 seeds in each conference all matched up in 1 v. 4 and 2 v. 3 setups. So, will the home favorites take the games, or will we see some upsets? Here is our breakdown of each of the 4 games, along with the Las Vegas lines.

(3) New Jersey Generals @ (2) Atlanta Fire

Saturday, July 14 @ 3pm ET

Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Fire -1

Atlanta earning only a 1-point advantage in Vegas means that there is a lot of doubt that they can maximize home field to beat a very tough New Jersey team. When we look at the numbers, we can see why folks might be nervous about the Fire. The number that jumps right out is their 24th ranked run defense. When you have Maurice Jones-Drew coming into town, that low ranking has to make you nervous. But, on the positive side, Atlanta is one of the better ball control teams in the league, with a solid run game and effective short passing game as well. They may well try to grind out a low scoring win by holding onto the ball as much as they can.

As for New Jersey, they come in with the league’s 3rd best scoring defense and one of the best run defenses in the USFL as well, so Atlanta cannot assume they can run the ball to eat clock against this Generals team. The strengths of New Jersey align well with Atlanta’s issues, and their defense could force Atlanta to be one dimensional, which does not often work well for the Fire.

OUR PICK: We share in the Vegas books’ skepticism of the Fire. Yes, they are a hot team, having won six in a row, but the matchups with New Jersey seem to fall in favor of the NE Division Champs. We are going to say it is a low-scoring match, but one the Generals pull out thanks to that run game. Generals 16-13.

(3) Ohio Glory @ (2) Oakland Invaders

Saturday, July 14 @ 7pm ET

Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

Invaders -4

The Invaders get a 4-point edge from the books, and that makes sense. They have been pretty solid at home, They also went into Columbus in Week 3 and walloped the Glory by a score of 32-13. Now, that was when Brock Osweiler was in for an injured Hackenberg, and Osweiler is not only the starter this week, he isn’t even with the team any more. So, we hope Oakland is not counting on that early season game as a sign that they have this in the bag. They do still have the league’s 2nd best scoring defense, allowing only 16.6 points per game, but the offense has been shaky, which, against Ohio, could be an issue.

Ohio’s numbers are not quite as good on defense, but, as we saw in the Wild Card round, they are certainly capable of shutting teams down when necessary. The key for the Glory may be how well Isaiah Pead can get the ground game going. With it, Hackenberg will have time to make his play-action throws. Without it, the Glory have to open things up, and that is not their game.

OUR PICK: This one is tough, because it really could swing either way, but as much as we love what we are seeing from Ohio this year, we think Oakland just has more talent, especially if Bobby Wagner and that defense can start strong. We think the game will be tight, but we see the Invaders moving on. Oakland 17-13.

(4) Houston Gamblers @ (1) New Orleans Breakers

Sunday, July 15 @ 3pm ET

Mercedes Benz Super Dome, New Orleans, LA

Breakers -2

This one should be fun. Both teams have offensive explosiveness, but they both also have defenses that can take over a game. The Breakers have the top scoring offense in the league and a Top 10 defense, including the best defense in the league against the run. Houston is 2nd in scoring, 2nd in yards, and in passing. They also have a solid defense, 7th against the run.

So, what do we see as the key here? We think it comes down to the big plays. Which team can connect on more deep balls? Have more runs break through the front 7? Force more mismatches? There are just so many weapons in this game, if we knew who could find those mismatches and exploit them, we would know who wins.

OUR PICK: The two split their series this year, with both games very close down to the wire. We expect nothing less this third time around. But, since both games were won by the home team, and since we expect a loud and fully rowdy N’awlins crowd on hand in the dome, we are going to give the slight edge to the Breakers. New Orleans 33-31.

(4) San Diego Thunder @ (1) Arizona Wranglers

Sunday, July 15 @ 7pm ET

University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Wranglers -6

It is no easy task to go into Glendale and get a win, even tougher if your best pass rusher is out of commission. That is San Diego’s challenge. Arizona has more experience, more playoff history, more depth, and certainly more on offense. San Diego has enough talent, however, to make this one a tough win for the Wranglers. If they are not on their game, or if Nassib struggles with the pressure of the playoffs, we could certainly imagine the Thunder pulling off the road upset.

The pressure is on Arizona, since most would expect them to win. But if San Diego can play loose, if they can get Ryan Williams into some good early runs, it will make the game more manageable for Christian Ponder and the Thunder offense. On defense, the key for San Diego is to rein in Fitzgerald and Bryant. If they can keep the passes short and in front of the safeties, they can keep Arizona from those back-breaking chunk plays and dramatic scores.

OUR PICK: A lot of “if” situations for San Diego. That is because Arizona is clearly in the better position, and they have the playoff experience to not be overtaken by the moment. We cannot pick against them in this one. Our pick is Arizona, 27-21.