2019 USFL Week 11 Recap: It's a Trap!!
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It was a week that would make Admiral Akbar proud. The famous fish-headed Star Wars leader, known for his catchphrase "It's a trap!" would have been right at home with this weeks upsets. They are called trap games, matchups against teams that appear to be outclassed and overmatched, often showing up on the schedule a week before a much tougher or more consequential opponent. Teams come in overconfident, or simply looking past their opponent, and they fall into the trap, losing a game that, by all accounts, they should have won. We had three of them this week, as three teams we highlighted in our list of streaking “hot” teams fell unexpectedly in games that both we and the books in Las Vegas had them heavily favored to win. Those trap games will be our story of the week, but we will, of course, run down all the games, including a hard-fought Central Division showdown in Chicago, a defensive gem from the San Diego Thunder, and a Memphis blowout win as they prep for their big game hosting the Gamblers this week. All this, plus some significant reunions as a trio of big name offseason transfers returned to play their former clubs. Stay right here, we will break it all down and prepare you for the Week 12 action to come this weekend.
Leagues’ Hottest Teams All Get Snared by Trap Games
Last week we highlighted several teams that were feeling pretty good as they rode extended win streaks. This week all 3 teams we featured for their win streaks dropped games that saw them favored by 5 or more points, a sign that maybe it is unwise to read one’s own press. In each case, the team came out flat, seemed unprepared for a dog fight, and unable to recover when they got that first punch to the teeth. It is a classic “trap game” scenario, one we think we may have made worse by highlighting each teams’ successful streaks.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the three was the first, Saturday’s noon kickoff, when the Atlanta Fire, sitting at 3-6-1 hosted the 9-1 Houston Gamblers. Houston entered that game as a 12-point favorite, a wide margin for any regular season USFL game, but one that seemed justified based on the relative success of each team this year. Apparently, the combination of the line, the press coverage, and the swagger Houston brought to the game was enough to light a Fire under Atlanta (oof, the pun), as the home squad outscored the defending League Champions 30-14 over the first three quarters. Houston tried to recover in the fourth but were unable to make up the full 16-point deficit, falling 3 short and falling to the underdog Fire.
Next up was the Dragon’s visit to Las Vegas, a game we will discuss again later on as a homecoming visit for former Dragon QB Matt McGloin. Seattle was a 7-point underdog on the road against a Viper squad that had won 4 in a row, but these Dragons know a thing or two about streaks, having recovered from 0-5 starts in both 2017 and 2018 to reach the playoffs in ’17 and a solid 8-8 final record in 2018. It seems they are seeking to do the same this year as they pulled off a 3-point overtime victory over the favorite, pulling Seattle up to 5-6 and now adding them to the cluster of teams hovering close to .500 and a potential Wild Card spot.
Last, and perhaps the most damaging of the 3 upsets, was in Washington D.C., where the 3-7 Federals found their footing against a Generals team that had won 3 in a row to reach 5-5 and 1 game from first place in the Northeast. The Federals built up a 20-0 first half lead, thanks in large part to 4 sacks and 3 picks of Generals’ QB Ricki Stanzi. Now, we know that with New Jersey playing with their backup the odds of an upset were certainly increased, but even with Stanzi at the helm New Jersey came into the game a 5-point road favorite. That fact certainly irked the Federals, and particularly DT Quinnen Williams, who played like a man possessed against the Generals, stuffing Maurice Jones-Drew on a key 3rd and 1 and also sacking Stanzi twice to lead the Federals’ D to one of its best outings of the season.
It all just goes to show that you cannot take a week off in the USFL, especially if you are a heavy favorite with eyes on the future. With all 3 streaking teams taking the L this week, we are now looking at Michigan’s 4 game streak and wondering if the Panthers are staying focused, and behind them, we see 3-game win streaks for the Bandits, Wranglers, Dragons and Roughnecks and wonder if they too are focused and ready this week or could they too be falling into a trap?
MICHIGAN PANTHERS 33 CHICAGO MACHINE 27 OVERTIME
It was the first in a 2-game, back-to-back series between the Panthers and Machine, and if this first game is any indication, this week’s second edition could be another beauty. Chicago came out ready to take on the 9-1 Panthers and show them that the division was not theirs alone, but Michigan was ready, and, with Kirk Cousins having one of his best games of the season, the Panthers pushed the game to overtime and got the W they wanted to push their division lead to an impressive 5 games.
Chicago had a plan for the Panther defense, and it showed right away as their first drive put 3 points on the board. It all seemed to be going to plan for the Machine as a quick 3-and-out led to a 2nd Chicago score only 2 minutes later. Chicago got the first big play of the game when Malcolm Floyd used a good double move to create space and took the pass from Sam Bradford for 50 yards, all the way down to the Michigan 10. 2 plays later the 3-play drive ended with Jeremy Hill scoring the game’s first TD to give Chicago a 10-0 advantage only mid-way through the first quarter.
Michigan responded with the first of what would be 3 Kirk Cousins touchdowns. The Panthers moved the ball well on their second drive and Cousins hit former Wrangler Antonio Bryant for the score, a 21-yard strike on a simple fly post route. Michigan would even the score early in the 2nd quarter on a 39-yard kick from Chase McLaughlin. This game was going to be tight, that seemed very clear.
The Machine climbed back on top with 1:17 left in the half when a 9-play drive concluded with Matt Forte finding the corner of the endzone for a 3-yard TD run. The score once again gave Chicago a lead in the game, one that Michigan would cut down to 4 points after a half-ending field goal to send the teams to the locker rooms with the homestanding Machine up 17-13.
Michigan took the 2nd half kickoff and immediately went after their first lead of the game. It would take them only 4:22 of the 3rd quarter to do just that, with Cousins finding Kevin Kraft on a short TD throw on the 10th play of the Panther drive. Chicago had shot themselves in the foot earlier in the drive, giving Michigan new life with a defensive holding call on a 3rd and 17 that produced an automatic first down for the Panthers. Michigan made them pay with the Kraft TD.
But, undaunted by the Panther’s immediate success, Chicago took over and used short passes and a nice 16-yard run from Forte to get into position once again for a score. This time it was Sam Bradford hitting Tyler Eifert on an inside route that once again gave the Machine the edge, now leading 24-20. The Machine would extend that lead to 7 early in the 4th when Daniel Carlson connected on a 50-yard kick. It was nice to have the lead, but at only 7 points, Michigan could tie the game up with a score, and that is exactly what they did on their next possession, with Cousins hitting Calvin Ridley on a 25-yard catch and run which brought the ball to the 3. Two plays later, LeVeon Bell would add a touchdown to once again tie the game up, now at 27. Bell, who Chicago had frustrated all game, would finish the game with only 48 yards rushing (a 2.8 YPC average, his worst of the year), but this score would be huge as the Panthers evened up the game with 8 minutes left to play.
Those final 8 minutes proved frustrating for both teams. A holding call stymied Chicago’s next drive. Michigan failed to convert a 3rd and 3 with another run-stuff against Bell on the crucial down, and in the final minutes, Chicago could not get the kick they needed, with Carlson missing on a 49-yard attempt at the 1-minute mark. Michigan played conservatively in the final minute, seemingly content to go to overtime.
And so they did, with Michigan winning the toss and taking the ball first. The Machine defense stepped up, forcing a punt after 5-play and giving the offense the ball on their own 23. But the Chicago offense also failed to get make their way into scoring position, themselves getting only 6 plays before a 4th and 4 forced them to punt as well. Michigan got a 2nd possession in overtime, with time winding down to the final 4 minutes. They wasted no time, with Cousins finding Cody Latimer on a 13-yard strike on the first play of the drive and then locating TE Martellus Bennett for 24 yards on the very next play. Four plays later it would be Bennett again, this time for the winning score as a play action to Bell forced the linebackers up and allowed the big tight end to get open down the middle. Cousins found him and Michigan got the “walk off” touchdown with 2 minutes left in extra time to take the first of two games between the division rivals, pushing their division lead to 5 games, and ensuring that a win at home against this same Chicago squad would guarantee the division title for the Panthers.
MEMPHIS 41 CHARLOTTE 13
Up 13-7 at the half, the Charlotte Monarchs, even with some issues, had to be feeling pretty good. That sense of satisfaction disappeared over the next 30 minutes as Memphis scored 34 unanswered points, picked off Mitch Trubisky 2 times, grabbed a Latavious Murray fumble, and ran away with the game as a result. Memphis went from a 6-point deficit to a 21-point lead thanks to scores on their first 5 possessions of the half, and a late Ryan D’Imperio pick-six on a tipped Trubisky pass just put the cherry on top as Memphis rolls and Charlott drops to 4-6-1.
POTG: Memphis WR Robert Woods: 8 Rec, 128 Yds, 1 TD
OAKLAND 6 SAN DIEGO 20
San Diego knew the Invaders saw this as a must-win game, and that alone motivated them to shut down their northern neighbors. San Diego held Oakland to only 78 rushing yards and stopped them on 12 of 17 third down attempts, securing their 8th win in the process and sending the Invaders back below .500 on the season. It was complementary football as the Thunder scored the first 14 points of the game on 2 Ryan Williams TDs (one by land, one by air) and then shut down Oakland’s offense, limiting the visitors to two long field goals as they earned a big divisional win.
POTG: San Diego DE Kony Ealy: 5 Tck, 4 TFL
HOUSTON 27 ATLANTA 30
You could almost hear Admiral Akbar yelling “It’s a trap” as Houston looked past the Fire and paid the price. The Gamblers came out flat and Atlanta jumped on the chance to earn the upset at home. The Fire got touchdowns from unexpected sources, HBs Kenyan Drake and Boston Scott, WR Kelvin Benjamin, and did just enough to hold off a furious 4th quarter comeback to preserve the win. For Houston it was a classic trap game as they looked ahead to Week 12 and a key divisional rivalry game with Memphis. Atlanta made them pay for overestimating their chances and underestimating their opponent.
POTG: Atlanta DT Sione Pouha: 5 Tck, 1 Sck. 1 FF
TAMPA BAY 23 JACKSONVILLE 15
Dalvin Cook and David Wilson combined for 106 yards, Dak Prescott found Dez Bryant and rookie Deebo Samuel for scores, and the Bandits held off in-state rival Jacksonville to move to 7-4. Jacksonville had opportunities but two drive-killing turnovers and far too many penalties kept them from keeping up with the Bandits as they drop their 8th in a row.
POTG: Bandit QB Dak Prescott: 15/31, 219 Yds, 2 TD, 0 Int
SEATTLE 28 LAS VEGAS 25 OVERTIME
Don’t look now, but the Dragons are up to no good again. They take the Vipers to OT and get the W on a 42-yard field goal to win their 3rd in a row. At 5-6 they are now right there in the Western Conference Playoff hunt. Las Vegas got 118 yards from Kareem Hunt, but could not shake the Dragons, who got two defensive scores as their LB group just took over. Josh Allen returned a McGloin fumble for a score and line-mate Calvin Pace later returned a pick for 6 more as the Seattle defense had no mercy for former Dragon QB Matt McGloin, who was also tackled for a safety by former Bandit Jerry Hughes.
It was an ugly loss for a Viper team that had won 3 in a row, but for Seattle, it may well be the start of yet another late season rally.
POTG: Seattle LB’s Calvin Pace & Josh Allen: Combined for 16 Tck, 2 Scks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 Int, 2 Def TD
PORTLAND 3 LOS ANGELES 17
Tony Pike took a beating with 5 sacks from the Express and more hits than the Beatles. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray had to leave the game at the half due to a hip pointer, but Brock Osweiler managed to orchestrate 2 scoring drives, both ending with C. J. Anderson TD runs, as the Express D shut out Portland in the 2nd half to clamp down a 14-point victory and their 7th win of the season.
POTG: LA CB Jamar Taylor: 4 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PDef
PITTSBURGH 24 OHIO 19
In a game fans mockingly declared the “Someone Has to Win It Bowl”, the Maulers snapped a 4-game losing streak by extending Ohio’s to 7 games. The Maulers finally found a run game, with Sony Michel gaining 107 yards on only 14 carries, while Marcus Lattimore added 46 more. Former Bandit, Devante Booker led all rushers for Ohio with 37 yards. Ohio never led in this one as the Maulers built up a 21-9 lead after 3 quarters. While a late Hackenberg TD throw to Mike Boone pulled them within 1 score, there was nothing left in the tank as the Maulers simply ran out the clock to get the win and improve to 5-6.
POTG: Mauler WR Jarvis Landry: 6 Rec, 124 Yds, 1 TD
OKLAHOMA 9 DENVER 30
This one was close at the half, a 14-9 Denver lead thanks to a missed PAT from Oklahoma, but in the second half the Gold found their defensive swagger, adding an early safety and then holding Oklahoma scoreless while the Gold offense added 2 more scores to turn a close game into an easy 21 point victory for the Gold. Denver improves to 6-5, on the heels of Arizona, while Oklahoma suffers their 7th loss, a tough one since it pushes them down in the division as well.
POTG: Denver QB Josh Allen: 18/25, 165 Yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
BIRMINGHAM 10 NEW ORLEANS 13
With Cam Newton sidelined, Birmingham opted to go with Bryan Kohler over E. J. Manuel, and, well, it did not help. The Stallion defense played well, holding New Orleans to only 13 points, but the offense simply had nothing in the tank. Newly acquired HB Ben Tate rushed for 34 yards in his first real action with the club, but Kohler completed only 38% of his passes as New Orleans confused him with multiple zone packages. If not for 2 Geno Smith picks, this game could have been much uglier.
POTG: New Orleans DE Cameron Jordan: 4 Tck, 2 TFL, 1 Sck, 1 FR
BALTIMORE 22 PHILADELPHIA 30
Quite a high score considering these two clubs combined to go 5 of 26 on third down. Credit the kickers, with Baltimore’s Josh Lambo going 3 for 3 while Philly’s Eddie Pineiro went 3 of 4. Philly also got TDs from both Derrick Henry and Zack Stacy despite the two combining for only 74 yards rushing. Jake Locker completed 22 of 36 but was also sacked 6 times, including 3 on third down that cost them position and the chance to add points to their score.
POTG: Stars’ LB Eril Kendricks: 5 Tck, 1 TFL, 2 Sck, 1 FF, 1 FR
NEW JERSEY 21 WASHINGTON 26
The Generals’ win streak comes to an abrupt halt as Washington stuns them with two late field goals and an unexpected onside kick. It was 21-20 New Jersey after backup Ricky Stanzi (who went 14 of 29 on the day) found Muhamed Sanu for the go ahead score with 3:14 to go. But Ryan Nassib moved the ball well in the Federals’ 2-minute and put 3 on the board to take a 23-21 lead. That is when Coach Bradley threw the analytics out the window, lined up to kick deep but had Adam Vinatieri clip the ball, allowing his up man, FS Adrian Amos to fall on the surprise onside effort. Washington held possession, kicked another field goal to go up 4 with only 2 seconds left in regulation and sent New Jersey home stunned.
POTG: Washington Kicker Adam Vinatieri: 4 for 4 on field goals, plus a successful onside kick.
ORLANDO 11 ARIZONA 18
In the “Calais Campbell Bowl”, the future Hall of Famer’s new team bested his former team, but it was certainly no cake walk. Arizona got out to a strong start thanks to 3 Parson field goals and a safety from Campbell, his only sack of the day, but one that gave the Wranglers an 11-0 start. Orlando fought back, with a Jennings TD run followed by a successful 2-point conversion and then a Cundiff FG to level the score at 11. The game winner came late, as David Carr led the Wranglers into position and Isaiah Crowell did the honors with the winning score at 2:15 left to play.
POTG: Wrangler HB Isaiah Crowell: 22 Att, 77 Yds, 1 TD
DALLAS 22 ST. LOUIS 17
A tough loss for the Skyhawks and a big road win for the Roughnecks, with both clubs now sitting at 5-6 in the West. Dallas got just enough out of their offense, with touchdowns from Samaje Perine and Tim Wright, to hold off the Skyhawks. Lamar Jackson rallied the Skyhawks in the 4th, but after an Eddie Lacy TD brought them within 5, they simply could not get Dallas off the field fast enough. When they finally got the ball back, they had only 22 seconds to try to score a TD, and it just did not materialize.
POTG: Former Skyhawk Josh Freeman gets a bit of revenge, going 15 of 28 for 212 yards and 1 TD as Dallas upsets St. Louis.
Panthers 1 Win Away from Division Crown
The Michigan Panthers got the win they wanted in Chicago this week, moving their division lead to 5 full games over both the Machine and the St. Louis Skyhawks. That means that with a win in the rematch with Chicago this week in Detroit, the Panthers can lock up the Central Division with a full month of action yet to come. At 10-1 they are also clearly the favorite to claim the 1 seed and home field advantage in the Western Conference playoffs, currently boasting a 2-game lead on both Arizona and San Diego.
After surprisingly dropping from the top of the division last year, the 2017 USFL Champions are looking very much like a favorite to claim another title. They boast the 2nd best scoring defense in the league, allowing only 15.8 PPG. Only LA at 14.8 is better, but unlike the offensively challenged Express, the Panthers can also win on offense, where they sit 4th in the league at 25.3 points per game. They have a possible MVP candidate in LeVeon Bell, who at 1,105 yards after 11 games, is the league’s only 1,000-yard rusher, more than 160 yards ahead of 2nd place back, Eddie Lacy of St. Louis. They also can point to 3 receivers who each have 5 or more touchdowns, including former Wrangler Antonio Bryant (7) and TE Martellus Bennett (6). This is a club that ranks in the Top 10 league wide in all 4 team defense categories (points, yards, passing, rushing) and in 3 of the 4 offensive categories (4th in points, 5th in total yards, and 1st in rushing). In other words, Michigan may well be not only the first team to qualify for the playoffs, but they have a very good chance of being the last team standing when the playoffs conclude.
Northeast a Cluster of Mediocrity
What can we say about the Northeastern Division? We used to say it was the league’s toughest. Now, perhaps “tough” is not the word we want. Balanced? Inconsistent? Mediocre? We don’t mean to be harsh, but with 1 team atop the division at 6-5 and 3 more sitting only 1 game back at 5-6, this is a division that it seems no one wants to win. Baltimore seemed like a clear frontrunner earlier this season, but since the injury to Ben Roethlisberger the Stallions have dropped 3 of 4. What is amazing is that despite the turn of fortune for the Blitz, no other team in the division has been able to take advantage and leap into the division lead. New Jersey won 4 in a row and looked like they could surpass Baltimore, but a bad loss to Washington this week keeps them a game behind. Philadelphia also had a streak, winning 4 in a row as well before dropping a Week 10 game to the Generals. They rebounded by beating the Blitz this week, so they too are sitting at 5-6. And then there is Pittsburgh. The Maulers just emerged from a 4-game losing streak that saw them plummet from 4-2 to 4-6 before their somewhat uninspiring win over a spiraling Ohio squad.
So just who could win the NE Division? Honestly, we have no idea, but even money says they do it at 8-8, maybe 9-7 at best, and very likely they get the nod due to a tiebreaker, because this division does not look like it can produce a team that rattles off enough wins to pull clearly ahead of the pack. Looking at the schedule, we see that the Blitz, clinging to their 1-game lead, have only 2 divisional games left, a must-win this week in Washington, and a Week 15 home game against the Maulers. The Blitz still hold a solid 4-2 record in the division, so winning those 2 games could help them win a tie-breaker if another team equals their overall record.
Philadelphia may actually be in the best position, which seems weird to say after the Stars started the season at 0-5, but they are currently 5-1 in the division, and that could be huge for them. They too have only 2 division games left, facing New Jersey at the Linc in Week 13 and then the Federals in DC in Week 5.
New Jersey, for their part, have 3 chances to improve both their record and their division standing as they go back-to-back-to-back with divisional games, starting this week at home against the Maulers, then their trip to Philly before a rematch with Pittsburgh in Week 14. The Maulers have those two games against the Generals as well as a Week 15 game in Baltimore to make their case. Their issue may be how they handle their other two games as well, with a brutal game against 10-1 Michigan in Week 13 and a season ender against a very game St. Louis squad in the Dome at America’s Center. Those two inter-divisional matchups make it all the more urgent for the Maulers to sweep their 3 remaining division matchups.
It is going to come down to the wire, and it is also quite possible that only 1 team from the division will make the postseason, so that the divisional title could easily be the only prize available for these 4 NE Division teams. And on the outside, sitting there at 4-7, we have the Federals, who could certainly play spoiler, as they did this week by beating New Jersey, but who could, if things all go their way, actually be in the mix as well. They need to win all 5 games to have a realistic shot, which does not feel very likely, but, this is the USFL, and stranger things have happened.
A Day for Reunions
Had the USFL been paying attention, they could have marketed Week 11 as “Reunion Week” around the league. We had three big matchups of players facing their former teams, with two of them returning to their former stadiums as well. Not all of them went the players’ way, but all three featured some pre-game hugs across team lines, and a lot of post-game trash talk.
Matt McGloin & the Seattle Dragons
The Dragons traveled to Las Vegas this week, where they were able to check in on 2018 breakout star Matt McGloin at his new digs just blocks from the strip. McGloin had spent the past 3 seasons in Seattle as a backup, but when he got the opportunity to start last year, during a contract year, he showed his full potential, throwing for 3,100 yards and 26 touchdowns in a 13-game stint. He used that big year to find a new home with the Vipers, and, so far, he has largely repeated the success from last season. His stats after 11 weeks include 2,500 yards passing, 17 touchdowns, a 71.3% completion rate, and a 99.0 QBR, just a couple of points higher than with Seattle last year.
And how did McGloin fare in a matchup against his former Dragon teammates? Not poorly, throwing for 198 and putting a TD on the board in the final 2 minutes to send the game to overtime, but he could not stop Seattle from pulling off the upset road win in extra time, so a bit of a bittersweet visit from his former teammates.
Calais Campbell & the Orlando Renegades
The future Hall of Fame edge rusher had a lot of good memories in Orlando, and a lot of friends on the Renegades roster, including former linemate Arthur Moats and former roommate, LB Anthony Barr. So, it was all hugs, laughs, and well-wishes ahead of the Renegade’s visit to State Farm Stadium in Arizona. But once the game started, as always, it was all business for the league’s all-time sack leader. Campbell laughed with Russell Wilson after each hurry, hit, and big defensive play, but while he did stick around to help Wilson up after sacking the Orlando QB for a safety, it was clear that he was not going easy on his former teammate. Neither did the Wranglers as a whole. Arizona turned an 11-0 3rd quarter lead, one including that Campbell safety, into a tough 18-11 victory, and while Campbell was all smiles after the game, folks in Arizona are glad he is happily finding continued success in the desert and helping the Wranglers to an 8-3 record after 11 weeks.
Josh Freeman & the St. Louis Skyhawks
The arrival of Lamar Jackson in St. Louis was seen as a clear to challenge to former MVP, one that exploded in the 2nd half of last year, when the rookie QB replaced Freeman under center and was so convincing in the role that by season’s end Freeman had been traded to the Roughnecks. It was unceremonious, almost insulting to Freeman, and while the QB who spent 9 1/2 seasons in St. Louis certainly had friends in the stadium and on the opposing sideline when he returned to the Gateway City this week, team ownership, and even Skyhawk head coach Frank Reich were not among them.
So, it should come as no surprise that Freeman had circled this game as a must-win for him and the Roughnecks. The former Skyhawk did his part against his old team, completing 15 of 28 for 212 yards and guiding the Roughnecks to a 4th quarter TD, a 10-yard laser throw to Tim Wright, that would prove to be the game winner for Dallas. He also clearly helped his defense understand Skyhawk Lamar Jackson’s tendencies, limiting the QB to -4 yards rushing on three scrambles and sacking him 4 times. A sweet return for a player who got a good number of cheers from the St. Louis fans when he appeared for warmups and who certainly hopes that his move to Dallas puts to sleep the rumors of his fading skills.
Seattle LBs Not Ready to Give Up on Season
The Dragons are at it again, playing dead for the first half of the season and then coming on strong to muck up not only the Pacific Division, but the entire conference. After a 1-6 start, the Seattle Dragons have won 4 of their last 5, including their last 4 in a row, to get right back into the mix at 5-6. This team is like a horror film monster, you think they are dead and then they pop up ready to slash once again. In their 4 recent wins they have upset Denver, Las Vegas, and the LA Express. With 3 more divisional games on tap (Week 13 vs. LA, Week 14 vs. San Diego, and Wk 16 @ Portland) the Dragons could have a real influence on the divisional race and could well put themselves in a position to be a Wild Card contender.
All this to say, why can’t this team win in March and April? How do they turn it on in the 2nd half when they are all but buried in the first half of the season? This makes 3 years in a row where a moribund Dragon squad rises from the dead and makes a late run. In 2017 they not only squeaked into the playoffs at 9-7 but upset San Diego to advance to the Divisional Round. Last year they fell a game short, finishing at 8-8, and this year, sitting at 5-6 with a 2-3 division record and 3 games to get both over .500, they seem to be going for it again.
And who is leading this late charge? Well, just look at this week’s Players of the Week to find your answer. We gave the award to two Dragon linebackers, each of whom recorded 8 tackles and scored a defensive TD. Without those two defensive scores, the Dragons don’t pull off the road upset of Las Vegas and are not in the playoff conversation. And while this week it was Calvin Pace and Josh Allen winning accolades, it has been the Dragon LB group all year long. Led by Khalil Mack, the group that includes Pace, Allen, and Carl Ihenacho, has been the heart and soul of the Dragons. Even after ownership made a future-focused deal in trading away CB Xavien Howard, the defense, and especially this LB group simply would not give up. Seattle still has a very solid secondary, led by FS Donte Whitner and CB Richard Sherman, and the arrival of former Bandit DE Jerry Hughes has been a boost to the D-line, Hughes sitting on 8 sacks after 11 games, but it has been and apparently will continue to be the LB group that motivates this team and keeps them in the hunt.
It is still not a mathematical certainly, so we cannot put the X, Y, or Z next to Michigan on the playoff standings, but the odds are certainly in Michigan’s favor, with a current probability of 98.3% of clinching a playoff spot. They are the only team we see who can clinch in Week 12, thanks to the cluster of 5-win teams across the league. What may be even more unbelievable is that 2-9 Jacksonville and 2-9 Ohio are also still mathematically alive, though one more loss is very likely the end for both.
The games with huge playoff implications in the upcoming weekend are many. You have Houston v. Memphis in a game that could all but lock up the South for the Gamblers, as well as a ton of games where those 5-win teams have to give it their all to try to get back to .500. Just look at the Northeast, where Baltimore, despite all their struggles after the injury to Big Ben, are still a game up on a 3-way tie for 2nd-3rd-4th. That logjam has to give way eventually. Similarly, Denver, Chicago, St. Louis, Las Vegas, Dallas, Oakland, and Seattle are all clustered together around. 500. The team that can string together even a small run of games could be on their way to a Wild Card or even a home playoff game.
Some big losses for teams on the outside of the current playoff standings but hoping to still make a potential run. Birmingham, Charlotte, and Dallas all lost key players to the IR list this week. For Dallas it is free agent acquisition and the league-leader in tackles who will be done for the year. For Birmingham, their newest defensive captain (after the trade that sent DeMeco Ryans to Tampa Bay) as Reuben Foster is done for the year, and in Charlotte it is Mitch Trubisky’s main bodyguard, LT Russell Okung.
Also of note this week is the significant number of players who may have to sit out Week 12 action, including QB Cam Newton for the Stallions, LBs Devin Bush (MGN) and Chad Greenway (OKL), and CBs Jalen Ramsey (TBY), Jabari Greer (BAL0, Desmond King (ATL) and Jeremy Lane (ARZ).
OUT
LB Reuben Foster BIR Back IR
OT Russell Okung CHA Hip IR
LB Clay Matthews DAL Knee IR
DT Angelo Blackson BAL Back IR
FS Antrel Rolle LV Hand 1-2 Weeks
DT Caraun Reid MGN Knee 1-2 Weeks
DOUBTFUL
CB Jalen Ramsey TBY Hernia
CB Jabari Greer BAL Concussion
CB Jeremy Lane ARZ Concussion
QUESTIONABLE
DE Calais Campbell ARZ Shoulder
SS Lano Hill CHI Hand
CB Desmond King ATL Concussion
LB Chad Greenway OKL Hand
DE Vic Beasley NJ Finger
QB Cam Newton BIR Knee
WR Miles Boykin CHI Thigh
LB Devin Bush MGN Concussion
A Dozen non-QBs Who Could Cash in on Free Agency
As we enter the final weeks of the USFL season there will certainly be a lot of drama on the field and in the standings, but the other late season drama is in the personnel rooms, where teams need to make tough decisions about contracts, cap space, and plans for the future. We already discussed some of the QBs who could well be making moves this offseason (Newton, Gutierrez, and Jacoby Brissett), but there are certainly a lot of other position players who could be looking to cash in this offseason by joining the free market, as well as teams having to decide if a new deal is in their own best interest.
We picked our own “Dirty Dozen”, a group of 12 players who may be either priced out of their current teams or who may just take advantage of their current standing in the league to find a buyer out there who will give them top dollar. Not all will reach free agency as certainly some of their current teams will open the vault and make them a deal they cannot refuse, but as we look around the league, these players look to us like the ones most likely to take on-field success and turn it into a financial windfall, either with a new deal or with some free market economics on their side.
DT Aaron Donald (PIT)
We start on defense with perhaps the best DT in the game today. Aaron Donald has been the anchor for the Mauler defense these past 6 seasons, starting every game since his rookie campaign. The Maulers would love to keep him in that role, but that may mean making sacrifices elsewhere to free up some cap space. Donald seems happy with Coach Fangio, but if there is a coaching change in Pittsburgh, he may well opt to move on as well.
DE Chris Long (WSH)
The Federals’ leading sack specialist the past 10 seasons, Long has regularly been putting up 10+ sacks per year (he is already at 11 this season) and at 31 he could be good for another 2-3 years (based on what we typically see at the position). So, does he stay the course as Washington goes through what appears to be a rebuilding phase under a new head coach, or does he make a push for a title by moving to a team that is ready to compete right now?
DE Chandler Jones (CHA)
We don’t talk enough about Chandler Jones. That is on us. The Monarch DE has been one of the best pass-rushing Des in the game since coming to the USFL in the 2016 draft. His rookie deal is set to conclude in 2 months, and the Monarchs would be fools to let him hit the market. The man has 12 sacks this season, and 51 in only 4 years. That is a keeper. But… and this is a big one, the Monarchs are looking like a team that will be over the cap unless they make some immediate moves, so can they work around Jones so that they can resign the young edge rusher without gutting the rest of their roster?
LB Khalil Mack (SEA)
While Mack has not duplicated the 102 tackles he had in 2016, he has still been one of the most exciting, most dangerous outside LBs in the game for the past 4 seasons. He is at 74 tackles this year, and we think he could again hit 100 by season’s end. So, do the Dragons make a commitment to their biggest defensive star, or did signing Jerry Hughes to a lucrative contract last offseason reduce their ability to resign the multitalented Mack?
LB Luke Kuechley (ATL)
Since coming over from Dallas, Luke Keuchley has been a leader on the Atlanta defense, and while this year has been a down year for both Keuchley and the Fire defense as a whole, we cannot imagine that Atlanta will just let their MLB walk away. They have pretty solid cap space, so there is a good chance they can resign their star, but he has not signed yet, so the danger is there that he will get an offer from beyond the Fire and take a chance on relocating.
CB Stephon Gilmore (LA)
Gilmore was lured to the USFL from the NFL, and the Express seem to be turning a corner this year, so there is some incentive for Gilmore to stay and ride what could be an ascending franchise towards postseason success. However, the Express have some serious bloat on their payroll. If they want to keep Gilmore as a defensive stalwart, they need to rework or just close out some overpriced contracts and free up some room, because right now they could barely afford to sign a punter, much less an All-USFL cornerback.
CB Leodis McKelvin (HOU)
The problem in Houston is that they have so much talent, so many mouths to feed, that they cannot possibly retain all their talent. Someone is going to have to be let go so that they can keep their core together. That said, McKelvin is making the case this year, with 6 interceptions and 4 defensive touchdowns, that he is part of that core and should be prioritized. We cannot imagine that the Gambler CB wants to leave what appears to be a perennial Summer Bowl contender, so he is making his case on the field that the Gamblers need to show him some respect.
CB Josh Norman (CHI)
The Machine are playing solidly, maybe good enough to move into playoff position, and Josh Norman is one of their most consistent contributors on defense, so they would love to hold onto the corner. The good news is that the Machine are easily one of the teams with the most cap space. Yes, they want to add more on offense, so there will be some money spent there, but retaining Norman should also be a priority.
FS LaRon Landry (OHI)
LaRon Landry could be a tough sell on returning to Ohio, especially if the Glory look like a team that needs to rebuild or at least add more talent. The 12-year veteran turns 33 this offseason, and his opportunities to win a title are fading. That alone could lead him to look for a 2–3-year deal that would put him on a contender for the final years of his career. Right now, Ohio does not look like a team that can offer him the opportunity to win a title, which at this point in his career could be bigger for him than a big payday.
OT Brian Bulaga (STL)
Headed into his 10th season, and having locked in as the LT for the Skyhawks, we don’t think Bulaga is seeking to restart in a new place, but that does not mean he won’t test the waters. A quality left tackle is one of the most sought-after positions in the game, and Bulaga could find that even if he wants to stay with the Hawks, it makes sense to field offers from elsewhere, just to boost the deal he will get from St. Louis.
OG Andy Levitre (MGN)
Another case where team success improves the odds that a player will stay put, but also another case where the list of players who Michigan needs to pay or potentially lose is a long one. In addition to their starting RG, Michigan has to find funds to resign QB Kirk Cousins, LT Gabe Carimi, WR Cody Latimer, DE Dee Ford and possibly WR Antonio Bryant as well. That is a lot of payout for a team that right now has less than $1M in cap space available.
WR Jordy Nelson (NOR)
Leading the league in receiving yards is a good way to go into a contract year. Jordy Nelson loved playing with Drew Brees, and seems to be flourishing with Geno Smith even if the Breaker offense is not what it had been. Is that enough to keep him in New Orleans, or will the potential for a big payday as one of the league’s elite receivers have him move on again, only 3 years after coming to the Big Easy in 2017?
Skyhawks Ownership Meets with City & State Representatives
The rumors of a possible sale of the Skyhawks to a group hoping to relocate the team to Minnesota has apparently spurred local politicians into action. This week, team CEO and President David Steward met with both city and state officials. The topic? A new stadium, of course. With the St. Louis Rams already well on their way to relocating back to Los Angeles, a move that has local fans furious, but which seems inevitable, the Skyhawks are using that major loss for the city as leverage to push for an open-air stadium to be constructed. They are not alone in the push, partnering with an MLS expansion group hoping to bring Major League Soccer to the Gateway City. The premise that St. Louis could lose both of their pro football franchises, and miss out on the quickly-growing soccer fandom as well, is a major point of pressure that Steward and the Skyhawks are using with both city and state officials. That there is already a group waiting in the wings to snatch up the Skyhawks and move them to the Twin Cities is yet another weapon Steward and company can use to pressure the city.
It seems clear that Steward enjoys being a USFL owner. He is one of the most involved in league committees, helping the USFL rework their deal with ABC/ESPN this offseason, participating in the 2020 Expansion Review Committee, and working with coaches and officials on the standing Competition Committee. It also seems clear that the native Missourian does not want to sell the franchise, but the reality is that The Dome at America’s Center is not a facility that benefits the Skyhawk bottom line, certainly not when compared to some of the other recently-completed stadiums within the league. Steward wants the team to stay in St. Louis, and, when the Rams finally make it official, he could well pick up a huge fanbase boost fueled by anti-NFL sentiment, but that only works to his favor if he can get a deal done, a stadium built, and reaffirm his commitment to the region.
St. Louis fans have already been forming grassroots protest groups and events to try to keep both the Rams and Skyhawks from relocating. With the Rams all but out the door, those groups have merged and the populous of the city is now united behind retaining the 2nd of their 2 pro football franchises. So, in addition to the economic impact a 2nd departure would produce, there is now political pressure to make a deal happen and keep the USFL in St. Louis. All of this seems to lean in the Skyhawks’ favor, because if it does not go their way, there is a shiny new stadium in Minneapolis, and an ownership group willing to pay a more-than-fair price to Steward to sell the Skyhawks. So now all the pressure is on the government to make a deal, to save the city the indignity of losing both of their pro football teams, and to build a stadium to suit the USFL and the Skyhawks. Will that prove the kind of leverage Steward and the Skyhawks have lacked in the past, or will we be seeing another team relocation? It is very much a question on everyone’s mind not only in St. Louis, but across the league.
Oakland Updates Logo Set Along with Uniforms for 2020
The Oakland Invaders become the 6th and final Under Armour uniform redesign to be revealed this week. Apart from the two league expansion teams, the earlier reveals this year (New Jersey, Atlanta, and Houston) have been largely tweaks, without major overhauls to each team’s identity. And while Oakland is not reinventing the wheel, theirs is the first of the 4 returning teams to be reworked to make a significant change to their logo in addition to their uniforms. The new Oakland Invader look includes a modified “Zeus” logo. The fist grasping a lightning bolt is still very much the central image, but for the first time that image will be encased in a shield rather than a circle. The new shield logo aligns the primary logo with a secondary logo featuring crossed lightning bolts as well as text identifiers of “Oakland”, “CA” for California, and “1983” to identify the founding year of this USFL charter member.
And while the color palette and basic design (athletic gold helmet, sky blue jersey, white or gold pants) is not changed, the design of each element is significantly revamped. The goal, according to Under Armour, is to play up the icons of the Invaders with their Air Force squadron connections, using symbolic color shifts to represent the wide open skies and sunny views from the air. They accomplish this primarily through a 3-stripe pattern repeated on the helmet, jersey and pant sleeves and echoed in the use of color-shifting numbers. The stripe pattern features two solid stripes with a third inner stripe of equal width which transitions from one color to another. On the helmet this is two sky blue stripes with an inner stripe that transitions from white to sky blue and back again. The same is seen on the gold pant set, while on the white pants and jersey it is two sky blue stripes with an inner stripe that transitions white-gold-white, and finally, on the blue jersey it is two gold stripes that have an inner stripe transitioning from gold to white and back to gold. This same motif of a color shift reflecting rays of sunlight or cloud to sky transition is found on the jersey numbers. Both number sets transition from sky blue to white, though with far more blue on the white jerseys and more white on the blue jerseys to boost contrast for those of us trying to read the numbers from a distance.
This new look, focusing on the color transition elements, is also very much at the center of the team’s new alternate look, dubbed the “Wild Blue Yonder” alternate, a design that removes all gold from the team palette, producing a sky blue and white look. This new alt look gives us the Invaders’ alternate helmet, a sky blue shell with white face mask. It uses white and blue striping to accomplish the color shift, while using the center of the team’s secondary logo, the two crossed lightning bolts and the “CA” monogram to create a very different look from their primaries. The team revealed a blue jersey and white pant set with the look, though it is rumored that there will also be an all-white version as well.
And, of course, there is the requisite retro throwback look, bringing us back to the 1983 season when the club wore sky, navy, and gold, with their original rondel logo on the helmet and traditional sleeve striping. Our overall impression is that this may be the strongest of the 4 new looks for 2020, with a lot of connection to the team’s past while also providing a bold new look, with unique striping and uniform features and a strong identity connecting the club to Air Force iconography that has always been a part of the Invader identity.
Week 12 and a lot on the line as teams try to finish the year with a run that could put them in playoff position. We start in Baltimore, where a win over the Federals keeps the Blitz in first place ahead of a 3-team group that sits a game back, but Washington upset New Jersey last week and is looking to make it 2 for 2. Then on to Seattle, where the Dragons have clawed themselves back into the playoff picture with 3 straight wins. They take on a St. Louis club that is also hoping to reach .500 with a win and stay in the Western Conference hunt.
On Saturday we have what appear to be a pair of mismatches with Oklahoma heading to Orlando and Arizona hosting Ohio, but be on the lookout for another trap scenario. The same is true for LA as they head up the coast to Portland. We have more clashes of 5-6 clubs, each trying to get back to .500 as Dallas heads to Las Vegas and Pittsburgh visits New Jersey. The winners of each game could be in position to move forward with a Wild Card, or even a Divisional run. Then, the nightcap features the 10-1 Michigan Panthers hoping to hold off Chicago, while the Machine need a win to avoid slipping 2 games under .500 wit only 4 left to play.
On Sunday the big matchups are San Diego (8-3) @ New Orleans (6-5) in the 12pm slot, Tampa Bay @ Oakland in the 4pm slot, and the night game featuring a Southern Division clash as Houston hopes to expand their lead over Memphis to 3 games, while the Showboats can drop it to only 1 game with a home win over their division rivals.
Friday @ 7pm ET Washington (4-7) @ Baltimore (6-5) NBC
Friday @ 9:30pm ET St. Louis (5-6) @ Seattle (5-6) ABC
Saturday @ 12pm ET Oklahoma (4-7) @ Orlando (7-4) ABC
Saturday @ 12pm ET Arizona (8-3) @ Ohio (2-9) FOX
Saturday @ 4pm ET Los Angeles (7-4) @ Portland (3-8) ABC
Saturday @ 4pm ET Dallas (5-6) @ Las Vegas (5-6) FOX
Saturday @ 7pm ET Pittsburgh (5-6) @ New Jersey (5-6) NBC
Saturday @ 9pm ET Chicago (5-6) @ Michigan (10-1) ESPN/EFN
Sunday @ 12pm ET Atlanta (4-6-1) @ Jacksonville (2-9) ABC Regional
Sunday @ 12pm ET San Diego (8-3) @ New Orleans (6-5) ABC Regional
Sunday @ 12pm ET Philadelphia (5-6) @ Charlotte (4-6-1) FOX
Sunday @ 4pm ET Tampa Bay (7-4) @ Denver (6-5) ABC
Sunday @ 4pm ET Birmingham (4-7) @ Oakland (5-6) FOX
Sunday @ 8pm ET Houston (9-2) @ Memphis (7-4) ESPN/EFN
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