2019 USFL Week 13 Recap: Running to Daylight

Week 13 was a contrast of energy across the league. In some cases “Mighty Mo”, momentum was king, with Birmingham shocking Houston thanks to their new offensive philosophy, Seattle winning their 5^th in a row, and San Digo getting a 3^rd in a row to clinch the Pacific. Other teams seem to be saying “No más”, the famous Roberto Durán line when he just had nothing left in a fight against Sugar Ray Leonard. There were some bad outings this week from teams that just do not seem to have any gas left in the tank. The Thunder shut out Portland 30-0, St. Louis absolutely destroyed a lifeless Ohio squad 48-7, Jacksonville put up only 2 field goals in a 17-6 loss in Charlotte, and Dallas did not put up much of a fight in a 20-7 loss to Arizona that did not see them score until the final minutes. In other words, we are seeing three kinds of teams right now, some dominant ones, some scrappers in the middle of the standings trying their hardest to move up the ladder, and some that seem very ready to be done for the year and regroup in the offseason. As we review the week’s action, we will look at these three categories, trying to figure out where each team lands. We will also bring you the news of the 2013 Hall of Fame class, announced this week, and the latest look at playoff odds as we head towards Week 14 and some must-win situations across the league.

League Reveals 2020 Expansion Draft Structure

Fans of the expansion Gunslingers and Steamrollers got the update they had been waiting for, one that fans of all 28 current USFL clubs should also be paying attention to because this year’s expansion draft will impact all clubs. The league this week revealed the timeline and the process for the 2-team expansion draft. Complicated by the agreement made between the San Antonio group, the league, and the relocated Oklahoma Outlaws, the draft will take place in two parts, both occurring in late-September, immediately after the first of the league’s two transfer windows with the NFL.  Here is how it will operate:

Stage One: Sept. 24: The San Antonio Private Draft of Oklahoma Outlaw players.

This was agreed upon as a condition of the sale and relocation of the Outlaws by Red McCombs, current owner of the expansion Gunslingers. San Antonio will have the right to draft 8 players from the roster of the Outlaws, but only from players who served at least one season playing for the Texas Outlaws before relocation. Back in Week 5 we outlined some of the big name talent who could be headed back to ole’ San Antone. Now we know what parameters the Gunslingers will have to abide by.

They will be able to choose any 3 players from the Outlaw roster who played with the Texas Outlaws. Once three names are off the board, Oklahoma will be able to pull 2 more names out of the pool to protect them. That will be followed by 3 more selections from the new San Antonio team, another 2 pulled off the board by Oklahoma, and then up to 2 more players can be chosen by the Gunslingers. So, they will get up to eight veteran players from Oklahoma, but not any 8 they choose.

Stage 2: Sept. 30: Complete Expansion Draft of all 28 current teams.

The second phase will require all 28 clubs to prepare a roster of 10 players who they are going to protect from selection. Actually, we should say 27 teams will do this, Oklahoma is allowed to protect 16 players since they will have already lost 8 to the Gunslingers. That is one concession granted the Outlaw franchise. As each of the two expansion teams selects a player, the team who loses that player may add 1 more name to their protected list. This will go on for 22 rounds, however there are further limits which will restrict both teams in the 44 players they can select.

The first of these is that no team may select more than 3 players from any one current USFL club, meaning that no club can lose more than 6 total players.

Secondly, no more than 2 players from the same position may be selected from any one team. This means that no team can lose all 5 cornerbacks on their roster, or all 3 quarterbacks.

A third restriction is that no player who was signed in free agency between August and September of this year can be selected, allowing all 30 teams to participate in early Free Agency without fear of losing a recently signed player.

And, the final restriction is that neither San Antonio nor New England can exceed 40% of the salary cap with these 22 selections. The goal here is to require that the two teams also use the draft, the free agency pool, and the NFL-USFL transfer window to complete their camp rosters as well as their final 53-man squad for Week 1 of the regular season.

The restrictions will make the draft a bit more complicated, but it also protects a strong team, Houston, for example, from losing half their roster or all of their running backs. The cap limit also means that some picks may be coming from a team’s practice squad, or some 3^rd string depth positions, so that each expansion club can afford to sign a high-priced star that a team leaves unprotected. Will it produce instant competitiveness for the two expansion clubs? We are not sure. History says no, but history also shows that some expansion clubs have had success in a pretty short timeframe (3 years has been common for an expansion club to reach the playoffs), so it is possible. Certainly the Gunslingers have an added advantage thanks to their ability to raid the Outlaws for talent, but both clubs will still have a pretty tough hill to climb to put together their 2020 rosters.

BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS 24  HOUSTON GAMBLERS 17

Houston makes our GOTW for a second straight week, but this time as the victim of an upset, an upset which may be a direct by-product of a coach’s unusual strategy decision. Last week, in what seemed a bit of a move of desperation, Todd Haley switched up the playcalling, adding significantly more QB designed runs into the playbook for the Stallions’ trip to Oakland. The strategy worked, with Cam Newton rushing the ball 20 times (compared to only 23 pass attempts). The result was 105 yards rushing, including 2 rushing TDs along with 208 yards passing, and, more importantly, a surprising 27-16 victory over the Invaders.

Well, it seems that with a trip to 10-2 Houston on the docket for this week, Haley decided to see if Cam Newton’s success could be replicated. The answer this time was another resounding yes. Newton ran 12 times this week, but again put up over 100 yards on the ground, and again contributed a key TD, a 35-yard run that put Birmingham on top in the 3^rd quarter. The balance was not the same as in Oakland, with Newton also putting the ball up 42 times in the game, but the threat of the designed run was very real and it was used very effectively by the Stallion offense.

On their very first play from scrimmage Haley and the Stallions alerted Houston that they would need to focus on Newton as a rusher, sending their QB off the left side with HB Ben Tate acting more as a fullback than a tailback. That opening play forced Houston to sacrifice a player in coverage, in most cases LB Ramik Wilson, one of their best coverage backers, to spy on Newton. On a few occasions it was safety Kenny Vaccaro who took on that role, but on nearly every play, there was a Houston defender shadowing Newton, which did impact his efforts as a rusher, but allowed him more options in the passing game.

That first play turned into an opening drive that saw Newton find slot receiver Julian Edelman from 7-yards out on a play clearly impacted by the Houston decision to spy Newton’s bootleg. A similar “catch 22” situation would play out at the conclusion of the game as Birmingham threatened the Newton run in the red zone and that threat created a hole in the zone that allowed Amari Cooper to score the game winner.

Between those two drives, Birmingham did two things very well, the offense kept Houston guessing, mixing passes and runs, including Newton runs, and the defense played the short and intermediate pass, forcing Colt McCoy to dink and dunk, a strategy that resulted in 7 failed third down conversions in 12 attempts. While Birmingham gave up 269 passing to the Gamblers, their shallow shell zones kept Houston from hitting on chunk plays and kept Carlos Hyde largely contained (56 yards on 21 carries, only a 2.7 YPC average). Ben Tate proved to be an effective lead blocker, helping Cam Newton break out for his 35-yard TD, but also a 12 and a 14 yarder over the course of the game. Newton also spread the ball around, mixing in all 3 starting receivers and both tight ends.

The result of the two strategies, the shallow shell defense and the threat of the QB keeper, was that Birmingham, for the second week in a row, defeated a significantly-favored home team in their own stadium. Is this sustainable? That largely depends on Cam Newton’s ability to avoid injury. We have seen running QBs take a lot of hits and miss a lot of games when they are asked to also serve as tailbacks, and Cam Newton is no exception. But, with 3 games left and Birmingham sitting at 6-7 after their two upset victories, the time seems to be now for all the tricks to be tried out and all the options put on the table. That is what Haley has done with his QB, and it seems to be working.

Birmingham heads into their huge rivalry game with Memphis, in Memphis, this week, a third straight road game in which they will be the underdog. If they can knock off the 7-6 Showboats, they would equal Memphis at 7-7 and would have two more games, neither easy (hosting Seattle and visiting New Jersey) to try to move into Wild Card position. If they do that, it will be one of the stories of the year, and all from the decision to do with their QB what he seems to choose to do on his own more often than not.

As for Houston, the loss did not really impact their playoff situation. They still have a 2-game advantage over both Baltimore and Orlando for the possible 1-seed, and still look like a lock for the Southern Division title, but, we have to wonder, is there a team in the possible playoff field that could replicate what Birmingham just did, use the threat of designed QB runs to force Houston into dedicating a player to a spy position? That could be a tactic another team could exploit, but who among the playoff contenders could pull that off? Orlando with Wilson seems plausible, not so much Locker in Baltimore, Prescott with Tampa Bay or Lynch in Memphis.

ORLANDO 38  ATLANTA 19

This one got ugly early as Orlando put up 34 points in the first half to Atlanta’s 6. Russell Wilson not only started the game, which was in doubt until gametime, but started it off with a bang, scrambling for a 47-yard TD on Orlando’s first possession. He then added TD passes to Brashad Perriman and David Njoku, another unexpected starter in the game, as Orlando rolled. It was only when they let up on the gas in the 2^nd half that Atlanta got their only TD of the game.

POTG: Orlando QB Russell Wilson: 18/24, 255 Yds, 3 TD, 1 Int, 4 Att, 68 Yds, 1 TD

PORTLAND 0  SAN DIEGO 30

Oof, this was an ugly one as San Diego shut down and shut out the McCarron-led Stags, picking off the Portland QB twice, sacking him 4 times and limiting Portland’s rushing attack to only 42 yards on the day. Portland got TDs from Colston, Williams and Taiwan Jones, but they did not need them all as the Stags were stag-nant all game long. The win gives San Diego the Pacific Crown for the 2^nd time in 3 years and now they look ahead to a possible 2-seed and a bye if they can pick up a game on Arizona.

POTG: Thunder CB Justin Gilbert: 6 Tck, 2 FF, 1 FR

MICHIGAN 45  PITTSBURGH 17

Another blowout, this one in Pittsburgh, where the Panthers outgained the Maulers 502-279 and put up 21 points in the final period to turn a 24-10 lead into a 28 point victory. LeVeon Bell had his 100 yards, 106 to be exact, but it was not allabout him in this one as Cody Latimer caught 8 for 113 and a score, and backups Alexander Mattison and Mike Hart both scored for the dominant Panthers.

POTG: Panther CB Dre Kirkpatrick: 6 Tck, 1 Int, 1 Def TD

WASHINGTON 17  CHICAGO 21

Let’s at least acknowledge that Washington is still fighting. They go down in Chicago, but they made it tough on the Machine, Holding a 14-7 lead into the 4^th quarter before Two Sam Bradford TD tosses gave Chicago the win. Bradford found Keny Golloday to even up the scoreboard and then connected with TE Tyler Eifert for the game winner, moving the Machine to 7-6 and keeping them very much alive in the Wild Card hunt.

POTG: Chicago QB Sam Bradford: 16/27, 236 Yds, 3 TD, 0 Int

DENVER 17  LAS VEGAS 10

One of the better, more intense games of the week as the two 6-6 clubs battled to the end, with the visiting Gold getting the W thanks to a nasty pick-six from DaJuan Morgan, returning the ball 47 yards and offering QB Matt McGloin a stiff arm to the turf for his efforts to stop the play. McGloin recovered, throwing a late TD to Aaron Dobson, but it was not enough as Denver gets the key win in the division and moves to 7-6, putting them in playoff position for the moment.

POTG: Denver CB DaJuan Morgan: 2 Tck, 1 Int, 1 Def TD

MEMPHIS 6  NEW ORLEANS 21

Unlike some of the other teams that were held under 10 points, in Memphis’s case it was not for a lack of effort, just a superior performance by the Breaker D. Memphis and New Orleans each struggled to overcome the other’s defense, but it was the Breakers, holding Memphis to only 1 of 13 on third down and pressuring Paxton Lynch, who get the W. As with the Denver-Las Vegas game, it was a pick-six that propelled the Breakers into the lead and they simply would not give it up in the 2^nd half.

POTG: New Orleans CB Tra’Davious White: 4 Tck, 1 Int, 1 Def TD

ARIZONA 20  DALLAS 7

Dallas actually outgained the Wranglers in the game, with Josh Freeman throwing for 342 yards, but that was largely because they spent the entire game behind, not scoring until the 4^th quarter as Arizona slowly built up a 20-0 lead over the first three. Isaiah Crowell had his first 100-yard game in the USFL and got another 46 from KaDeem Carey as the Wranglers were content to shorten the game, limit David Carr’s exposure, and just rumble past the Roughnecks.

POTG: Wrangler DE Calais Campbell: 5 Tck, 1 TFL, 2 Sck

BALTIMORE 24  TAMPA BAY 13

A huge win for the underappreciated Blitz as they go into Tampa Bay, a 7-point favorite, and get the road underdog upset. Jake Locker outperformed Dak Prescott, throwing for 346 yards to Prescott’s 181, and adding 3 touchdowns to Prescott’s 1. Both Darius Heyward-Bey and Brian Hartline found space against a Bandit secondary that had been playing better of late. A late TD to Denarius Moore helped Baltimore hold off the Bandits, turning a 4-point lead to a nice 11-point cushion in the 4^th.

POTG: Blitz QB Jake Locker: 23/32, 346 Yds, 3 TD, 1 Int

OHIO 7  ST. LOUIS 48

I think we can now officially say that the Glory have given up on Coach Coughlin and on the season. After hanging tough over a long losing streak, Ohio all but phoned this one in, falling behind 17-7 at the half, and then watching helplessly as pick-six returns from Sean O’Connor and Vontae Davis helped pump the lead up to 38-7. By the time Bobby Rainey put up an 18-yard run to boost the advantage to 38 points, the Glory had left the building, in spirit if not in body. A bad showing for a team that has little to play for but pride.

POTG: St. Louis HB Eddie Lacy: 20 Att, 135 Yds, 1 TD

JACKSONVILLE 6  CHARLOTTE 17

It is not so much that the Bulls looked listless in Charlotte, so much as the fact that their O-line looked hapless. Charlotte got 4 sacks on Teddy Bridgewater, a pretty elusive QB, and forced 2 picks, oh, and also limited the Bull run game to only 34 yards rushing. It was pretty ugly. Meanwhile, Mitch Trubisky, despite 2 more picks (earning groans from jaded Monarch fans), threw for 2 scores, both in the 2^nd half as the Monarchs broke a 3-3 halftime score that had many fans wondering what else there was to do in the stadium. Charlotte returns to .500 with the win, but confidence that they can not only qualify for the postseason but win some playoff games is not exactly high among the Monarch fans.

POTG: Monarch LB Rolando McClain: 6 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 FF, 1 FR

OKLAHOMA 13  OAKLAND 19

The Invaders somehow won this game despite only putting up 152 yards of offense, a solid 105 less than Oklahoma. I guess we should praise an Invader defense that forced 3 takeaways, including 2 picks of Joe Flacco, but in a game that did not see Marshawn Lynch on the field, it still feels like the Invaders should have been able to do more. Taylor Gabriel led all Oakland receives with only 37 yards receiving, not a good sign for the future.

POTG: Invader LB Bobby Wagner: 6 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 Int

NEW JERSEY 13  PHILADELPHIA 21

The Generals had a shot to get over .500 and give Baltimore a run, but the Stars did their best Lee Corso impression at home and said “Not so fast, my friend” to their archrivals. It was unheralded DE Danielle Hunter who led the Stars to a surprising defensively dominant performance. Hunter finished the game with 3 sacks, a safety and a defensive TD off a strip-sack-recovery combo. Even with their offense struggling, the Stars still managed to get the win, leaving both teams now sitting at 6-7 and hoping they can somehow sneak up the board to earn a Wild Card.

POTG: Stars’ DE Danielle Hunter: 7 Tck, 3 Sck, 1 Sfty, 1 Def TD, 1 FF, 1 FR

LOS ANGELES 10  SEATTLE 16

Coach Lewis has a love-hate relationship with his new club. He loves that defense, one of the league’s best, but the offense, well, not so much love. The Express kept themselves in range despite 108 yards from Knowshon Moreno, but Kyler Murray could not get the ball into the endzone. Reggie Bush was his only consistent weapon, putting 134 yards on the board, but for one of the league’s top rushers, Bush still has only 1 TD on the season. Meanwhile, Seattle did just enough, thanks in part to a nice 22-yard TD run from Wendell Smallwood, and earned their 5^th win in a row to move to 7-6, currently sitting in 4^th place in the Western Conference, much to everyone’s surprise, or is that just Déjà vu?

POTG: Seattle FS Donte Whitner: 5 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 FF

Is LA Fading Right Out of Playoff Picture?

Coach Marvin Lewis and his revamped LA Express were one of the stories of the season’s first half, jumping out to a 5-game win streak that put them atop the Pacific Division. But, after being upset at home by the Seattle Dragons, the Express have managed only meager 17-8 and 17-3 wins over two clubs now out of playoff contention, Ohio and Portland. In their 5 losses over the past 7 weeks, they have not surpassed 14 points and have struggled to find any offensive continuity at all.

Yes, the defense is still looking solid, evident in this week’s rematch with Seattle, where the Express held the Dragons to 271 total yards, but even gaining 407 (thanks in large part to 134 rushing from Reggie Bush) they still only put 10 points on the board. That is not playoff football, and right now, LA is not looking like a playoff team.  It may seem a strange thing to say about a club that is giving up only 14.8 points per game, a league best, but when your offense puts up on average 14.2, you are going to lose more than you win. Right now the Express are sitting at 7-6, which has them in 6^th position, tied with Seattle, Denver, and Chicago, but even one loss could see the Machine leapfrog them for that 6^th position.

So, what is to be done? Well, maybe Coach Lewis should take a hint from what Todd Haley is doing in Birmingham. Kyler Murray, the team’s rookie QB, is a very agile, very athletic runner. He does not have the heft and size of Newton, so there is a risk to asking him to run too often, but something has to be done to add more threat from the Express offense. Murray has been solid, not spectacular, throwing the ball (13:8 TD:INT ratio, 2,164 yards, 58.5% completion rate), but maybe Coach Lewis needs to at least threaten the QB run to make defenses have to account for it. So far, in 13 games, Murray has only run the ball 7 times, and 4 of those were sneak plays. Seems that LA is not taking advantage of their QB’s full skill set, and right now they need to use every player they have to their maximum ability.

Gutierrez May opt to Retire if New Deal Not Done

The word out of Philadelphia is that Matt Gutierrez wants to resign with the Stars, wants to finish his career with the team that gave him a shot 13 years ago, and made him the full-time starter in 2012. But this has been a rough season, one in which Gutierrez went upside down on his TD:INT ratio for the first time since becoming the starter. His per game average has dropped from 256 yards passing in 2018 to only 190. That is a major concern. His QB Rating has likewise taken a huge hit, dropping from 84.0 down to 66.8, certainly a major drop from his standout season in 2012 when he was at 121.7 and threw for over 3,500 yards. Even 2 years ago, when he hit 4,000 (4,063) the expectation was that the Stars were set at QB, but that does not feel like the situation right now.

So, what does Gutierrez do? Well, he notifies the team that he wants to remain, and that he will likely retire if not signed to a new deal. That is not much of a threat to the Stars, since there is every chance they would let their QB go in free agency, so who is he speaking to when he lets this get out? Maybe to other teams, maybe to his own agent. It is hard to say. There are still many in Philadelphia who believe that Gutierrez has fallen off the QB cliff at age 35, so whether he retires or finds another team, it does feel unlikely that he lines up under center for the 2020 season opener.

Forte & Lynch Also on Retirement Watch

While we are on the topic of retirement, there are several other big name players who have at least floated the idea, or who many around the USFL have highlighted as likely departures after the 2019 campaign ends. Chief among them are halfbacks Matt Forte of Chicago and Marshawn Lynch of Oklahoma. Both backs will turn 35 by the time camps open in January, which is the football equivalent of turning 80 for the rest of us. Both have seen their share of physical issues, and both have interests beyond football. It would not shock us to see both announce as soon as their seasons end.

Others entering the “maybe this is the end” phase of their careers include wideouts Roy Williams of Atlanta (37), Antonio Bryant of Michigan (36), and Darrius Heyward-Bey of Baltimore (34). Bryant could well be looking at another league title with Michigan this year, after having earned some hardware with Arizona. Could that be a good time for him to step away? His 2019 stats show he can still play the game (56 Rec, 635 Yds, 7 TDs) though it is noteworthy that in his first year in Michigan he is not being asked to be a deep threat, averaging only 11.3 yards per catch, compared to 20.8 in 2018 and 25.8 in 2017, both with Arizona.

Others we should cite include TE Jason Whitten of LA (37), guard Sean Locklear of Charlotte (36), another Monarch in DT Amobi Okoye (36), Jacksonville’s Kedric Gholston (also 36), LBs Daniel Ellerbe and Kirk Morrison of Ohio and Philadlephia (both 35), and DBs Antrell Rolle of Las Vegas (35) and Eric Weddle of Baltimore (34).

Lauletta Expected Back Under Center for Stags

The rotating QB situation in Portland comes around for another spin as Kyle Lauletta returns from injury just as Week 13 starter A. J. McCarron gets placed on the injury list. McCarron suffered a shoulder separation this week and is likely to be shuttered for the season, but, just in the nick of time, Lauletta returns from injury to get the Week 14 start. Should anything happen to him, Portland has Tony Pike and Kellen Clemons on their 53-man roster. Heck, maybe let Clemons get a shot. He is the only one of the 5 QBs in Portland not to get a chance this year, and with Portland now officially eliminated from contention, what is the harm.

The Stags will need to evaluate just what they want to do this offseason. Sure, they want Marcus Mariota to come back and be the starter when 2020 begins. Well, at least that is what we assume. After all, Mariota will have missed 18 games in the past two seasons by the end of 2019. That has to be a concern for the Stags. They have seen very short stints from both McCarron and Lauletta. Do they like one of them to be a potential competitor for Mariota next year? Or is it less competitor than understudy? With both Pike and Clemons in contract years, we think Portland will go shopping rather than resign either. But, will they also cut free McCarron, Lauletta, or even Mariota?

Why would they do that? Well, the main reason it has been floated is that there is a certain QB down the road in Eugene who is viewed as a “first round talent” and a potential franchise QB, Oregon’s Justin Herbert. Portland would have exclusive USFL rights to Herbert if they use a T-Draft selection to lock down the Ducks’ QB. But does Coach LaFleur want to start over with a rookie? Does management want to eat the remaining 2 years of Mariota’s contract? They could trade their 2019 starter, that would remove the cap issue and make room for Herbert, but do they dare do that prior to the USFL and NFL drafts, because the risk is very much there that Herbert heads to the NFL and that would leave Portland up a river without a paddle, or without a QB. A lot to think about, but for now, they will put Lauletta back under center and see what they have in the 2^nd year player.

The dance tickets are going out to more and more teams as two more teams punch their ticket to the big postseason soiree. The Wranglers and Thunder now join Michigan and Houston as post-season participants. We also saw both San Diego and Michigan wrap up their division races this week, securing no worse than a 3 seed and a home playoff game with this week’s results, though both are very likely pushing for a Top 2 finish and a guaranteed bye week to rest and recover from a long season. There is quite a gap between these teams and those fighting for Wild Cards. After Arizona and San Diego, with 10 wins apiece, the next Western club up is Seattle with 7 wins, thanks to their league best 5-game winning streak. In the East, Houston’s 10-3 record is 2 games better than any other contender, with a trio of team sitting at 8-5.

On the other end of the table, we added Portland to the mix, bringing us to 3 teams with the sad lower case “e” next to their names. Portland loses too many tiebreakers to have a shot even if they finish 7-9. They join the 3-10 Bulls and the 2-11 Ohio Glory in the category of “playing for pride” for the next 3 weeks.

 Several significant injuries, but none with more potential playoff impact than Mike Evans’s groin injury, a severe strain that is likely to keep him out of the lineup for the final 3 weeks of the season and quite possibly for the Divisional Round, or even the Conference Championship.  That could be a big blow to Houston’s chances to repeat as Evans is a focal point of their offense.

OUT

FS      Jamal Adams               DAL       Broken Leg         IR

G            Zach Martin                    OKL       Achilles                 IR

DT          A’Shawn Robinson         WSH     ACL                        IR

HB         Justice Hill                      OKL       Broken Arm             IR

HB         James Wilder Jr            LV           Knee                        4-6 Weeks

QB         A. J. McCarron              POR      Shoulder                  2-4 Weeks

WR         Mike Evans                 HOU     Groin                       2-4 Weeks

DOUBTFUL

HB         Kenyan Drake                   ATL         Toe

LB           Patrick Willis                    ATL         Neck

QUESTIONABLE

WR         Will Fuller                   CHI        Toe

TE           Anthony Hill                PIT         Concussion

Hall of Fame Class of 2019 Includes Controversial Legacy Pick

The votes are in, the class is selected, and 2019 Pro Football Hall of Fame USFL Class is now official, but not without some controversy. Of course, there is the usual controversy as players who many fans feel deserve the honor were not selected, with this year’s snubs including Federals’ safety Ed Reed, 12-year veteran CB Quentin Jammer, and 2^nd year candidate, WR Peerless Price, a 14-season standout for the Denver Gold. The usual debates will exist around those snubs and the players who made the cut. We are talking about the controversial choice of the Legacy Committee, former New Jersey DE Phil Hansen. If we look only at Hansen’s on-field production, there is no doubt that he is worthy of induction, and likely would have been inducted upon initial eligibility several years ago. But, Hansen’s autobiography lit a firestorm around the former North Dakota Fighting Sioux. In his memoire, Hanson elaborated on a career impacted by steroid use, expanding to talk about widespread use across the USFL in the 1990’s, and naming several prominent players and coaches who either participated in, contributed to, or pushed for steroid use among players. The scandal this revelation produced led to Hansen’s disqualification for the Hall, and to this day, even with significant corroboration from players and personnel from the period, Hansen’s name is still viewed with a lot of skepticism, ranging from criticizing his motivations to challenging his career numbers as “tainted” by the scandal.

But, after receiving reinstatement for eligibility by the USFL and the Pro Football Hall of Fame this past year, it did not take the select Legacy Committee long to recognize that despite all the controversy and the reality that steroid use was quite rampant in professional football through the early 2000’s, the accomplishments of Phil Hansen as a member of the Generals were certainly worthy of consideration. And while the votes of the Legacy Committee are not revealed publicly, there are rumors that his selection was unanimous, turning aside a second candidate, whose muddled retirement process impacted his initial qualification, Ohio HB Eddie George, as well as several other nominees who played between 1983 and 2007.

And so it is very likely that the shadow of the Hansen nomination will loom over the Class of 2019 for some time, we should not let it dampen the praise and admiration for all 6 newly named 2019 enshrinees.

QB Jake Plummer (ARZ 97-08, LV 09-14)

One of the greatest dual-threat QBs in USFL history, which is quite a rich pool stretching from Alan Richter and Doug Flutie all the way to Cam Newton today. Plummer played 18 seasons in the USFL, split between the Wranglers and Vipers. He threw for nearly 60,000 yards (59,759) and had 405 passing touchdowns. Add in his 68 rushing touchdowns and a lifetime QBR of 92.6 and it is clear why Plummer was a first-ballot nominee.

LB Mike Vrabel (POR 97-99, JAX 00-14)

The venerable MLB who now serves as a coach for the San Diego Thunder, Vrabel retired in 2014 with 1,882 tackles, 49 sacks, 11 All-USFL nominations and the 2004 Defensive Player of the Year trophy. Vrabel was a tackling machine in Jacksonville, regularly leading the league and setting the tone for the Bulls defense for a decade. He too enters the Hall in his first year of eligibility.

LB James Farrior (BAL 02-09, HOU 10-14)

Farrior split his USFL career between two franchises, with Baltimore apparently making a huge mistake in 2009 by allowing Farrior to depart in free agency. The veteran LB joined the Gamblers that year and immediately helped the Gamblers capture the 2010 league title. He would play 5 seasons in Houston, retiring in 2014 with over 1,300 tackles and 7 All-USFL nominations added to his title ring.

DE Anthony Weaver (CHI 02-14)

A sack master who excelled even when his Machine teams were not particularly successful, Anthony Weaver locked down the left side of the Chicago D-line for 13 seasons, amassing 199 sacks, 84 tackles for loss, and 8 All-USFL nominations. He is the 4^th of 4 first-year candidates to make the hall this year.

HB Antowain Smith (LA 97-02, JAX 03-09, STL 10-12)

A member of the retirement group of 2012, Smith enters the hall in his 3^rd year of eligibility. Fans most likely remember him for an outstanding swan song campaign in 2012, a year in which his contributions helped St. Louis win the league title. Defensive players who went up against Smith remember more. They remember his subtle jukes, his ramrod left shoulder, used to run through or over defenders, and his constantly grinding feet. Smith played 16 punishing seasons in the USFL, an incredible total for a back of his size and style of play. He retired with 15,925 yards rushing.

DE Phil Hanson (NJ 91-04)

The stats from Phil Hansen’s 14 season career in New Jersey speak for themselves. 289 sacks, 105 Tackles for Loss, 703 Tackles at the DE position, oh, and we should add 13 All-USFL nominations and bookend awards as the 1991 Rookie of the Year, the 2001 Defensive Player of the Year, and a league champion with the 2004 Generals.

Picking the Playoffs: Our Bullpen Lays Odds

Sure, we could just look up the Las Vegas oddsmakers and get some numbers on who will and will not make the playoffs, but we decided instead to stay in house, focus on our roster of former USFL players, announcers, sportswriters, and pundits and come up with our own odds. We tried to simplify it, giving everyone the chance to put each team at 100%, 90%, 80% and so on, all the way down to 1% and 0%, and we got pretty consistent answers. Yes, there was some variation between 60% and 40% but even with that, the 28 clubs shook out pretty consistently. So, without further ado, here is how our bullpen of USFL experts handiaps the race for the league’s 12 playoff spots, from those already in, through the full roster of teams, to the 3 officially eliminated clubs.

100%    Houston, Michigan, Arizona, San Diego

Not much to say here, since all 4 have locked up playoff spots. It now is all about byes and home field advantage for these four frontrunners in the league standings.

90%       Orlando, Baltimore, Tampa Bay

Sitting at 8-5 apiece, these clubs have a 2-game lead on any challengers, and that gives them very good odds with only 3 weeks left to play. Baltimore could come away with the division crown this week, Orlando and Tampa Bay are only separated by a tiebreaker, but that Week 15 matchup in Raymond James Stadium is very likely to be the final deciding factor. Should be a good one.

70%       Seattle

We cannot believe it either, but the Dragons are the hottest team in the league, seemingly putting their QB confusion behind them and are now in a position to control their own destiny. They have a tough one this week with San Diego coming to town, but their final two games (@ Birmingham and @ Portland) could boost them to 9 wins even if they cannot get past the Thunder.

60%       Memphis, Denver

Both 7-6 clubs control their own fate, which is why we have them at better than 50/50. Denver was considered for 70% only because their three final games are St. Louis, Jacksonville, and Atlanta, but all 3 are on the road, far from the nice altitude advantage they love in Denver. Memphis needs to beat both Birmingham and Philadelphia, but they would love to throw in a win at Houston just to boost their confidence.

50%       New Orleans, Los Angeles

Inconsistency on offense has been a real bugaboo for both of these clubs. The Breakers have three tough games ahead of them (@ Houston, vs. Charlotte, and vs. Orlando), but at least 2 of 3 are in the Dome. As for LA, they are stuck with 3 more road games, visiting the Monarchs, Roughnecks, and Thunder. That Week 16 game could be a must win for the Express, but will San Diego be resting players?

40%       Charlotte, Chicago

Both the Monarchs and Machine need some help. Chicago has 7 wins, but likely needs 2 more. Their schedule is not brutal, with Ohio and Baltimore at home and a road trip to inconsistent New Jersey. We could see them go 3-0 if they can stay focused. As for Charlotte, facing LA and New Orleans the next 2 weeks will be tough assignments, both those teams will be as desperate as Charlotte is for a W.

30%       St. Louis, Oakland, Las Vegas, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Birmingham

The odds are longer for these 6-7 teams, but they are not “Miracle on Ice” long. If any one of these clubs can win 3 in a row, they have a good shot. They will need help, but they need to focus on their own games, not watch the scoreboard.

10%       Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Dallas

Seriously? 10%? Yup, a one in ten shot of surprising us all, winning all 3 down the stretch and getting enough help that an 8-8 record could get the job done. Would we put money on any of these teams? Nope. Not at those odds.

 1%        Washington

So you’re saying theirs a chance!! Yes, Lloyd, there is a mathematical chance, but only if you ace this calculus class while drinking a glass of water upside down, riding a unicycle, and reciting the presidents in reverse order. If you can do that, you can see these Federals qualify for the playoffs.

 0%        Portland, Jacksonville, Ohio

Yup. We knew this already. Time to figure out what has gone horribly wrong, from starting 4 different QBs this season, to having absolutely no explosiveness on offense, to simply playing with no imagination, no passion, and no punch, these three have gotten here after a long ugly run of games.

After reviewing the status of all 28 teams, as well as their playoff odds as defined by the Vegas books, it seems pretty clear that we have some really important and likely some really intense games on our schedule for next week. Friday has two of them, with the 6-7 Stallions headed to Memphis to face the 7-6 Showboats. Neither of these teams can afford a loss right now, not if they want to improve their odds of a Wild Card berth. The late game has another team striving to make the cut, as Seattle, with a 5-game winning streak, hosts San Diego. Will the Thunder, officially division champs of the Pacific, lose a bit of their edge with little on the line this week?

Saturday has some key playoff implications in place as well. New Jersey hopes to improve their odds by returning to .500 as they head to Pittsburgh, Denver and St. Louis are both still in the mix, but cannot take a loss in this inter-divisional matchup. New Orleans has a tough matchup against a 10-3 Houston squad that still has its eyes on that 1-seed, and Ohio will limp into Chicago where the Machine need to get on a roll to get into the mix in the West.

Sunday has an intriguing game between a Baltimore squad that just won’t give up hold on the NE Division and the 11-2 Panthers who want the home field advantage that being the 1-seed would give them. Then we have Dallas and Philadelphia, a classic NFL rivalry that for both USFL squads means life or death in the Wild Card race. The same is true when the LA Express head to Charlotte. Both teams are right on the cusp of Wild Card position, so a win is essential for each. A lot of games with a lot of playoff implications up and down the Week 14 schedule, that is for sure.

Friday @ 7pm ET            Birmingham (6-7) @ Memphis (7-6)                     NBC

Friday @ 9:30pm ET    San Diego (10-3) @ Seattle (7-6)                       ABC

Saturday @ 12pm ET      New Jersey (6-7) @ Pittsburgh (5-8)                         ABC

Saturday @ 12pm ET      Denver (7-6) @ St. Louis(6-7)                                   FOX

Saturday @ 4pm ET       New Orleans (7-6) @ Houston (10-3)            ABC

Saturday @ 4pm ET      Oakland (6-7) @ Portland (4-9)                                 FOX

Saturday @ 7pm ET       Ohio (2-11) @ Chicago (7-6)                                     NBC

Saturday @ 9pm ET       Oklahoma (5-8) @ Arizona (10-3)                         ESPN/EFN

Sunday @ 12pm ET      Baltimore (8-5) @ Michigan (11-2)                     ABC Regional

Sunday @ 12pm ET        Washington (4-9) @ Orlando (8-5)              ABC Regional

Sunday @ 12pm ET         Dallas (5-8) @ Philadelphia (6-7)                      FOX

Sunday @ 4pm ET        Jacksonville (3-10) @ Las Vegas (6-7)              ABC

Sunday @ 4pm ET           Los Angeles (7-6) @ Charlotte (6-6-1)         FOX

Sunday @ 8pm ET          Tampa Bay (8-5) @ Atlanta (4-8-1)             ESPN/EFN