November 6, 2013
It has been three months since the Arizona Wranglers secured their first John Bassett Trophy in 31 seasons, and a lot has happened. Yes, there was the chaos of a victory parade in Phoenix held at 10pm at night to avoid the heat of Arizona in August, and there was huge news out of New York, news that will not go over well in Las Vegas to be sure. We also had a very active free agency period open up, a pretty one-sided NFL-USFL transfer, and four of six coaching vacancies have been filled. In our first of two editions focusing on the USFL offseason, we will explore these stories and take a look at late January’s College Draft, with all the drama that can only come when hype builds around a college quarterback, and we have plenty of that as “Johnny Football” is taking Texas A&M and the college football world by storm. Lot’s to talk about, so let’s get right to it with our Big Story, the sale and future relocation of the Las Vegas Thunder.
OWNERS APPROVE SALE AND 2015 RELOCATION OF LAS VEGAS THUNDER
We had a feeling that the Owners’ Meetings this past week would not be a smooth and quiet event and we were certainly correct on that account. The Chaos surrounding the sale of the Las Vegas Thunder produced some heated debates, many of which spilled out to the media, and while an eventual decision was made, it is one that simply will not make many happy around the league.
It took 4 days and several failed votes before the owners finally, and largely begrudgingly sold the Thunder franchise to the investment group led by former MLB Padres owner John Moores and LA Express minority owner John Tu. The group came into this week’s meetings with a clear advantage both financially and in familiarity for the league owners, but their proposal to relocate the team to San Diego went against the desire of nearly every owner to find an ownership group that would keep the team in Las Vegas and buy into the new domed stadium that the league has been funding in lieu of the failed prior ownership of the Thunder.
The sale means that the Thunder will move to San Diego for the 2015 season, leaving the club with an uncertain 2014 season ahead, one likely to be almost as ugly as the final year of the Boston Cannons before their relocation. Whether it is empty seats at Sam Boyd Stadium or angry protesters, the league simply has to expect that Thunder games will not be putting the league in the best light. That said, what they do gain in the Moores-Tu group is a deep-pocketed and stable leadership that is very familiar with professional sports ownership as well as with the USFL. John Tu will take on the CEO role for the new, soon-to-be San Diego Thunder, while Moores will be responsible for what the group hopes is a short-term contract with Jack Murphy Stadium as they work with the city and the Cal State University system to get a new stadium approved for both the USFL and the SDSU Aztecs.
On the Las Vegas stadium front, the USFL remains committed to putting a franchise in the city. That commitment has already been used as a lever for at least one team as Nashville Knights ownership is using the soon-to-be completed and soon-to-be-vacant Las Vegas domed facility to put pressure on the stadium authority in Nashville. The Washington Federals are also expected to make use of the situation to try to push D.C. into a new stadium deal. They have already been partnering with MLS Club DC United to try to make headway with the District, but the threat of the club moving to Las Vegas, after the NFL Redskins already abandoned the district for a suburban location in Maryland, is a powerful bit of leverage that the club can use in their negotiations.
So, what does this mean for the Thunder? Long term it is likely a good sign, stable ownership always is, but the players on the team need to get through what is likely a rough 2014 “lame duck” season at Sam Boyd before they relocate with the team to southern California and Jack Murphy Stadium. All this for a club that still does not have a head coach, after their late-season collapse cost June Jones his position. A lot of uncertainty still lingers over the team and its players.
Michigan Eagerly Lands Jim Johnson
It certainly did not take former Nashville Knights Head Coach Jim Johnson long to find a suitor. The 19-year veteran of USFL battles was snapped up early in August by the Michigan Panthers, themselves recently having released a longstanding coach in Dick LeBeau. Michigan wanted a coach who could develop a waning Panther defense and provide stability for now 3rd Year QB Kirk Cousinsk, and by most accounts they found that in Johnson. The Knights under Johnson were often among the league leaders in team defense, and his run-first philosophy could help keep pressure off of Cousins, especially if 2013 rookie LeVeon Bell continues to develop.
Johnson had some struggles the last few years with the Knights, including a rough tenure with NFL import Peyton Manning, who simply did not deliver the wins or the offensive fireworks that Nashville fans expected, but there is no doubt that Johnson has proven himself, taking the Knights to the 12 times in the past 2 decades, including 4 division titles, a goal the Panthers certainly have in what feels like a very fluid Central Division.
Generals Hire Former Outlaw Head Coach
Norv Turner made a name for himself as an offensive guru, and while he did not find early success with the Texas Outlaws, the team he coached from 2007 through 2009, a lot of pundits now credit him with the development of Joe Flacco, a growth in skills that would manifest itself soon after. It is that hope for offensive dynamism that brought Turner to the attention of the New Jersey Generals, who plummeted from 12-4 in 2012 to only 4-12 last year, largely due to the collapse of the offense without QB Sam Bradford on the field. The Generals signed Turner to a 4-year deal with the hope that the former Outlaw coach and multiple team OC could bring back the explosive offense the team used to reach the 2012 playoffs.
Turner is expected to have Bradford back in action by minicamps next month, but may well be looking for some more explosive players in the draft. HB Maurice Jones-Drew had a solid 2013, his first 1,000-yard season, but the passing game lagged behind. Doug Baldwin led all receivers with 940 yards, and Muhamad Sanu made solid gains after the team traded away Michael Crabtree, with several 100-yard games in the final half of the season. Pieces to build around for Turner.
Fangio Gets His Shot with Maulers
Arizona DC Vic Fangio was one of the hottest coordinators on the coaching market. His tenure with Arizona was short, only 3 seasons, but this year’s Wrangler squad was such a phenomenon, setting record and guiding the club to a 15-1 record and the squad’s first league title. It was that dominant defense that made Fangio a target of several teams, and the reason that Pittsburgh offered Fangio a $5M deal to spend the next 4 years in the Steel City.
Fangio will take over a Mauler club that has some serious talent on defense, including former All-USFL DE Jared Allen, CB Dunta Robinson, and LB Brian Cushing, but struggled for consistency in 2013, finishing 26th in the league by allowing 25.9 points per game and nearly 335 yards each week. Addressing that defense will be Fangio’s main task, with his new OC, former Bandit and Showboat QB Ken Dorsey, taking on the task of turning QB Andy Dalton into an elite starter in the league. With young receivers like 2013 rookies Adam Thielen and Tavon Austin on the squad, expect Pittsburgh to mix it up a bit on offense while Fangio brings some discipline to the D.
Las Vegas & Nashville Yet to Pull the Trigger
We are still waiting for the Thunder and the Knights to make their pick for their open head coaching positions. Both clubs are in a bit of turmoil at the top, with the sale of the Thunder just announced, and with Nashville still without a stadium contract for 2014, so perhaps the attention of the GM and even the personnel teams are in a bit of turmoil, but both clubs need tRo step up soon. The USFL Draft is only 2 months away, and there are still plenty of holes on both clubs which need personnel solutions. Add to that a general sense that both clubs are perhaps not the most stable, and you have a tough offseason for signing quality players. Lacking a proven head coach, or a player-oriented coach who will motivate folks to sign with either club is a major issues as the two teams try to prepare for next season.
Manziel Mania Puts Houston Gamblers in Tough Position
How do you handle a problem like Manziel? To paraphrase the famous song from The Sound of Music, the meteoric rise of “Johnny Football” has been a boon for Texas A&M and for College Football, but could be creating major headaches for one USFL club. Manziel’s star quality is undeniable, but what is a team to do when they don’t see QB as a position of priority but they hold the rights to the Aggie QB and half of their fanbase is clamoring for the Aggie star?
Manziel has taken college football by storm, very much reminiscent of the mania around Herschel Walker during his years at Georgia or Doug Flutie in his final season at BC. And what do both of those players have in common? They became early superstars of the USFL as the fledgling league broke the bank to ensure that both Heisman winners would choose the young league over the NFL. The USFL is not in that same desperate situation after 31 seasons, but to say that there is interest in having the hottest young QB in the game join the spring league is not an overstatement. Not only is there general interest, but with the Houston Gamblers holding the rights to protect up to 3 players from Texas A&M (among 3 schools) from the open draft this January, the pressure is on the Gamblers to bring Manziel to Houston and keep him in the state of Texas, where his legend is growing exponentially with each win in College Station.
Manziel broke onto the scene last fall, with a 26 TD season and some electrifying performances. This fall has already seen the diminutive but agile QB pull off huge wins, putting up huge totals against early foes Rice (52), Sam Houston State (65), and even Alabama (a 42-49 loss). The Aggies, with Manziel leading the way, have scored 40 or more points in every game this season , including a 57-7 drubbing of UTEP just this past weekend. The 2012 Heisman winner is drawing all sorts of comparisons with past Heisman winners, including USFL legend Doug Flutie, and in the state of Texas there has not been a bigger star coming out of the state since Ricky Williams, possibly since Earl Campbell.
So, what are the Gamblers to do? They have a QB they really like and who has done very well for them in Matt Hasselbeck. But, Hasselbeck is clearly in the final few years of his career, so there could be room for a transition. The pressure is there to make Manziel a Gambler and sell a ton of jerseys with his familiar number 2 on them. But, Houston has several roster needs that supersede the QB position and there will be no shortage of teams offering them a king’s ransom to swap into the Gambler’s first T-Draft slot.
Could Houston actually trade away the rights to Manziel despite his superstar status in the state? We cannot imagine that they would make any friends in the Lonestar state if Manziel were to sign with the Seattle Dragons, Jacksonville Bulls, or Ohio Glory. Even a move to the Outlaws or Roughnecks would be controversial, essentially providing a rival with a lot of publicity and revenue from Manziel. At the end of the day, the Manziel decision will have to be a football one, and if the price is right we absolutely could see Coach Phillips and the Gamblers taking a handful of high draft picks to give up the rights to the Aggie QB, but they would do so at the risk of ostracizing their fans, fans who may well like Hasselbeck, but who readily admit that Manziel would be a superstar in a Gamblers’ jersey.
MONTH BY MONTH RECAP OF THE OFFSEASON
A lot happening as always in the first few months of the offseason. Free Agency opened one week after Arizona’s Summer Bowl victory. The NFL-USFL Transfer Window 3 weeks after that, and we have even started to see our first draft-related trades. Rather than break down the moves by type, we thought we would take a quick month-by-month look at the action as it happened, including some pretty big retirement announcements and a few surprising moves early in the offseason. So, let’s get to it with August’s moves
AUGUST: Retirements & Early Free Agent Signings
August is often the month when clubs get a few surprises from their most veteran players. Retirement announcements tend to cluster around the first few weeks of the offseason and then again during mid-winter camps. While some are known in advance, some are decisions made as players recover from the long season and discuss their options with their agents and their families. We already knew of some pretty big names who were stepping away, players like HB Willis McGahee, QB Jake Delhomme, and a cluster of wideouts that included Randy Moss, Robert Ferguson, and Ike Hilliard. But there were a few more pretty major decisions made following the Summer Bowl, retirements that will push teams to prioritize a new position in their offseason plans. Here are the 10 post-Summer Bowl retirements which we feel will have the deepest impacts on their teams and the league.
SS Kevin Curtis (STL): After 6 years with the Thunder and 5 in St. Louis, Curtis has called it a career at the age of only 33. The centerfielder has struggled with ankle and knee issues the past two seasons and faced a challenge from 3rd year player Kendrick Lewis, who started seeing more snaps than Curtis this year. So, St. Louis may be well-prepared for this transition, but will want to add some depth to the position.
QB Luke McCown (TEX): A 10-year backup in the USFL, McCown had one lone season as the team starter, 2006 as the QB of the expansion St. Louis Skyhawks. He spent the last two years in Texas, backing up Joe Flacco, which meant getting 7 starts in Flacco’s injury-shortened 2012 season. He retires with some decent numbers, a career QBR of 85.7, 44 TDs and 27 picks, and just over 8,000 yards. Texas, still very solidly Joe Flacco’s team, will almost certainly look to the draft to bring in a young backup, but could also seek to find a veteran backup as well.
CB Quentin Jammer (PHI): This one is going to hurt the Eastern Conference Champion. Jammer was a 4-time All-USFL selection at cornerback. With 10 picks over the past 2 seasons, the Stars are going to be hard-pressed to fill Jammer’s spot on the roster. They like Sam Shields as a number 2 corner, but is he ready to move up to the top spot? Expect CB to be a major focus for the Stars this offseason as they cannot afford to be weak at that position in a NE Division that has Sam Bradford, Joe Webb, Andy Dalton, and Ben Roethlisberger among their annual foes.
SS Tyrone Carter (MGN): Another DB hanging up his cleats. Carter opted to do it while on top, or perhaps he was just exhausted after a season that saw the safety lead the Panthers in tackles and finish in the Top 5 in the league with 130 tackles. It marks 3 times in the past 4 years that the safety has had over 100 tackles, which is generally what you only want to see from a MLB. After 14 seasons, that is a lot to ask. Michigan has 2nd year safety Troy Petty on the roster, and he will get a shot to win the starting job, but the Panthers have already added a Free Agent in former Breaker Corey Chavous to compete with Petty.
DE Ryan Denney (DEN): After 3 straight 10-sack seasons, Denney dipped to 7 this year, and also saw his playing time drop as Bryce Fisher and Justice Cole both got more snaps. After 12 seasons in the trenches, Denney decided that he had done what he came to the league to do, retiring with 78 career sacks. With no moves made so far to replace Denney, we expect DE to become a priority for the Gold as they prep for the draft.
OT Marco Colombo (DAL): Whether Colombo’s departure was known ahead of time or came as a surprise, the truth is that you never want to lose your LT without a plan in place, and we are not sure Dallas has one. Stockar McDougle is better suited for the right side of the line and we are not sure that Mario Henderson is starting material. So, what is Dallas to do? Rumors have them pursuing free agent tackle Vernon Carey of the Feds. If that pursuit fails, it may require a look at the NFL pool in January.
K Mike Hollis (OAK): Going out on top. That is what Hollis did as the 2013 All-USFL kicker after a career best 151 points and 43 of 44 on field goals. Hollis kicked for 3 teams in his 12-year USFL career, but will certainly relish his time with the Invaders most of all, as they included clutch kicks that helped Oakland become a perennial division title contender. Oakland has already made their move to replace Hollis, signing former Wrangler kicker David Buehler to a 3-year deal.
DE Shaun Ellis (NJ): After 13 years in East Rutherford, Ellis retires after one of his best seasons in the league, a 16-sack performance on a pretty shaky Generals defense. Ellis won two titles with the Generals back in the early-mid 2000’s and will certainly be among the potential candidates for the Hall of Fame in 5 years. As for the Generals, they did see this move coming, having brought in Aaron Kampman and drafting William Gholston this year. We expect to see Gholston get his crack at Ellis’s left side while Kampmann stays on the right.
WR Terrell Owens (BIR): Bad enough that the Stallions lose Randy Moss, a future Hall of Famer, but to also lose Owens as well? That is going to require a major facelift to the Stallion offense. The dual retirements mean that Dontrelle Inman, the 2nd year receiver, and slot man Julian Edelman are now the two wideouts on the team with the most catches over this past season, combining for 44 receptions, well short of either Owens’s or Moss’s total this year. Birmingham has signed former Dragon Chris Chambers, but we are feeling pretty sure that is not going to be their only move.
HB Ron Dayne (BAL): Are we shocked that Ron Dayne has called it a career at age 33? Not really, but after another outstanding 1,200 yard season, the 7th of his Hall of Fame career, the Blitz cannot be excited about filling those shoes. Dayne has been the constant for the Blitz over the past decade, reliable and steadfast. He undoubtedly will remain close to the team and the city that has welcomed him as one of their own, but the Blitz had better invest some time and resources into finding a run game solution with Dayne no longer in the backfield.
August also opened the USFL Free Agency period and, as we often see, some big names came off the list of available players within the first 72 hours, a shockwave of signings that causes all other teams to recalibrate their plans. Here is our look at the first 72 hours of signings.
DAY ONE
The first day of free agency kicked off with a flurry of action across the league, and with immediate impact. Two-time All-USFL corner Carlos Rogers was officially the first player signed to a new deal as he joins his third team in his 9 year career, staying within the SE Division by moving from Charlotte to Tampa Bay on a new 3-year deal. Another defender made a big move as Oakland LB Terrell Suggs, the former Baltimore Raven, will jump from coast to coast, joining the Philadelphia Stars. Tampa safety Idrees Basheer inked a deal with the Memphis Showboats as they try to build up their shaky defense.
Chicago made an interesting move, signing Breaker HB Matt Forte to a 2-year deal to act as backup to Doug Martin, a big step down from his starting role in New Orleans, but a pretty lucrative deal for a backup position. WR Sinorice Moss will move from the Skyhawks to the Bulls on a new 3-year deal, and TE Julius Thomas will join Kenny Everett in Las Vegas as the Thunder make a first day signing. Finally, QB Quincy Carter is on the move again, the 33-year old QB joining his 5th team as he is signed by the Breakers as a backup to Drew Brees.
DAY TWO
On the second day, one of the bigger names in the free agency pool is off the table as Orlando’s MLB Paul Posluszny will move on to the Pittsburgh Maulers, returning to Pennsylvania, where he made his name as a Nittany Lion. Charlotte had the first big re-signing as they inked DT Ryan Sims to a new deal, and we saw two backs switch teams as former Clemson star C. J. Spiller jumps from the Bulls to the Dallas Roughnecks and fullback Peyton Hillis stays in state, moving from the Knights to the Showboats.
DAY THREE
By day three we started to see a pattern as teams with bigger cap allowances, teams like Charlotte, Tampa, and Pittsburgh, added to their early free agent haul. The Monarchs inked Stars’ wideout James Hardy, Pittsburgh added wideout Mike Williams, and the Bandits opted to give a second shot to German import Sebastian Vollmer, who moves on from the Stars to Tampa Bay. Also signed on this third day of the market were HB Tatum Bell (Dallas to New Jersey), and QB Kyle Boller, who goes from backing up Brees in New Orleans to Flacco in Texas.
We also saw our first major trades of the offseason in August as Washington sent Jahvid Best to Tampa Bay (Reported prior to the Summer Bowl), and then Ohio found a taker for QB Vince Young. Young will now be the new backup to Ben Roethlisberger in Baltimore. That kind of makes sense. Both are big, strong-armed QB’s, though Young tends to be a bit more of a scrambler than Big Ben, they both can put the ball deep down the field when called on. Baltimore sent guard Eric Steinbach to the Glory in the trade, as well as a 6th round pick in this year’s draft.
Over the next few weeks, more names were taken off the free agency board, including WR Jeremy Kerley (HOU to JAX), LB Monty Beisel (TBY to DAL), DE Marcus Harrison (STL to NJ), and CB Dawan Landry (NOR to DEN). Perhaps the biggest name from the rest of August was that of LB Keith Bullock, who leaves the Philadelphia Stars for rival Washington, a move that certainly will not win him any friends in eastern PA.
SEPTEMBER: The NFL-USFL Window Leads to Several Big Departures
September saw the hot stove continue with several significant signings within the USFL. The list of signings from the month included the following USFL to USFL moves and resignings:
WR Brandon LaFell: Breakers to Federals
WR Josh Reed: Resigned with Atlanta
G Mitch Petrus: Stags to Glory
CB Deltha O’Neal Resigned with Michigan
LB Angelo Crowell Blitz to Knights
P Dustin Colquitt Showboats to Glory
CB Patrick Robinson Bandits to Gold
WR Roscoe Parrish Outlaws to Blitz
TE Ben Hartsook Machine to Fire
HB Cedric Benson Thunder to Blitz
WR Danny Amendola Federals to Thunder
G Sean Mahan Knights to Generals
K Shayne Graham Federals to Maulers
But while the USFL free agency market continued, the big story in September was the opening of the NFL-USFL transfer window. As we often see, the September window heavily favored the NFL with nearly a 3-1 transfer rate to the fall league, with teams adding players with the fall season already in play. The opposite would be expected in the February-March market, when recently released NFL players often joined USFL clubs for their season. The USFL did have a few noteworthy signings, including Atlanta landing QB Kellen Clemons to be a backup to Kyle Orton. Stanford product Toby Gerhardt could not find an NFL team after his rookie deal expired, but the Pittsburgh Maulers brought him in to rotate with Ronnie Brown in their 2-back system. Chicago added some TE help, landing Scott Chandler, LA added guard UcheNwaneri, and LB Calvin Pace will now join the USFL Dragons in Seattle.
But, when you look at the names that jumped from the USFL to the NFL in September, you see why teams across the league dread the fall transfer window. Here is the pretty deep pool of USFL players that will now join NFL clubs and begin seeing action this fall:
5x All USFL WR Taylor Jacobs (Skyhawks to San Francisco)
5x All USFL CB Patrick Surtain (Maulers to Denver)
4x All USFL CB Will Allen (Thunder to LA Raiders)
2x All USFL DT Jeff Zgonina (Blitz to Dallas)
2013 All-USFL HB Arian Foster (Outlaws to Houston)
CB Marquand Manuel (Stags to Seattle)
LB Jonathan Vilma (Bandits to NY Jets)
HB Michael Turner (Gamblers to Atlanta)
DT Monsanto Pope (Wranglers to Pittsburgh)
FS Chris Crocker (Monarchs to Minnesota)
WR Keary Colbert (Panthers to Carolina)
FS Bryan Scott (Bandits to Philadelphia)
DE Erasmus James (Thunder to Green Bay)
HB Kenny Watson (Maulers to New Orleans)
DT Marcus Stroud (Bulls to Buffalo)
LB Jamie Winborn (Dragons to LA Raiders)
LB Keith Ellison (Panthers to Washington)
LB Kawika Mitchell (Maulers to NY Giants)
QB Jordan Palmer (Fire to Jacksonville)
HB BenJarvis Green-Ellis (Invaders to New England)
QB Tim Rattay (Gamblers to 49ers)
The pattern of the NFL focusing on experienced USFL veterans clearly continued, with several All-USFL standouts now joining the fall league. The USFL continues to focus on “overspending” for their rookies, and the NFL, while not happy about losing out on many draft picks, seems more than content to sign away big name and All-USFL veterans to fill the gaps. Whether the USFL will be able to reciprocate in turn next spring will have to be seen, though the trend is for the spring league to cherry pick players coming off their rookie NFL contracts rather than veterans in their 30’s.
OCTOBER: Filling Gaps & Making Trades
October tends to see a drop in USFL free agent signings, though we did have a few noteworthy selections, as well as our first draft-impacting trades of the season. We should expect that action to grow as we enter the winter and teams shift their focus to the wrap up of the NCAA season and the declarations for both the NFL and USFL drafts from players ready to leave the college ranks.
Among the noteworthy USFL free agents who have landed new deals we have OT John Greco leaving the Stallions for the Generals, FB Rick Razzano, a 4-time All USFL selection at the often undervalued position, jumping from the Outlaws to the Dragons, guard Mike McGlynn headed from Philly to Denver, and TE Delanie Walker leaving Nashville to join rival Birmingham. Other signings include QB John David Booty (Chicago), LBTorrance Marshall (SEA), DT Ron Edwards (POR), HB Jacob Hester (WSH), and WR Steve Breaston (WSH).
Quite a few player for picks trade deals were also signed this month, though the highest draft pick swapped out was a 4th rounder, so no big shakeup at the top of the draft just yet. Pittsburgh sent DE Henry Melton to the Generals for a 6th rounder and WR Kevin Johnson to the Gamblers for a 4th rounder, as it seems clear that new HC Vic Fangio is looking to stockpile some picks. Denver sent backup center Ben Jones to the Federals for two picks, a 4th and a 6th. Jones is expected to compete for the starting job in Washington. The Federals, in turn, sent DE Kamerion Wemberly to Charlotte, getting in return guard Travis Bond and a 5th round pick. And in the one player for player swap we have seen, Jacksonville sends SS Jaiquawn Jarrett to the Invaders to bolster their line with center Antoine Caldwell. No huge names yet, no top picks swapping hands yet, but we know from experience that this is just a matter of time.
We may be two solid months away from the USFL’s College Draft, but there is more excitement this year than we have seen in a long time. And while a lot of the attention has gone to 2012 Heisman winner, Johnny Manziel, the truth is that this draft may be special not because of one player but because of the depth of talent across many positions. It may not be a great draft for running backs, with none receiving a top rating, but in many other positions there are solid ratings 10-12 players deep, and that is a rarity.
What that means for USFL teams is that it will not just be about nabbing the best player in their Territorial Draft pool or landing the perfect 1st round pick. It will be about the full two part draft process. But, that does not mean that there is not an upper echelon of talent that has many across the league buzzing. We have selected our 10 Immediate Impact candidates from what we anticipate will be the 2013 Draft pool. The USFL would love to land as many of these 10 as possible, maintaining their strong draft history vs. the NFL, and for many of these players, it may be the Territorial Draft that determines how and when they get picked.
These 10 are in order of position, not a ranked list, because by most accounts any of these 10 could prove to be ROTY candidates.
QB Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M)
Territorial Pool: Houston Gamblers
Profile: A dynamic dual threat QB with a knack for playmaking. Some are comparing his game to that of Doug Flutie or Jim Kelly, two of the biggest names in USFL history.
QB Blake Bortles (UCF)
Territorial Pool: Orlando Renegades
Orlando seems quite happy with Russell Wilson’s first year, so the more traditional pocket passer Bortles could be available in the open draft, which could make him a very coveted player when the teams without strong QB prospects start looking at that pool.
WR Sammy Watkins (Clemson)
Territorial Pool: Jacksonville Bulls
The most dynamic playmaker of a pretty good receiver group, Watkins is strongest at quick cut routes and can play at all three levels of route. The Bulls could very well be in the market for his skill set.
WR Mike Evans (Texas A&M)
Territorial Pool: Houston Gamblers
More of a straight route and contested ball receiver than Watkins, Mike Evans is an ideal red zone target, big and able to leap as well. We think Houston will be scouting him heavily ahead of the territorial draft, especially with Ike Hilliard retiring this year.
OT Taylor Lewan (Michigan)
Territorial Pool: Michigan Panthers
The Panthers would be a good landing spot for the Wolverine LT, but they have a lot of needs on defense, so there is a chance that they go heavily in that direction this draft, allowing Lewan to possibly make an appearance early in the Open Draft.
DE Jadeveon Clowney (So. Carolina)
Territorial Pool: Orlando Renegades
The most talked about defensive player in this year’s draft, Clowney is viewed as a top tier edge rusher, but here is the issue. If there is one position where Orlando does not need or have the funding to support a top tier player, it is at edge rusher. The new Calais Campbell contract all but guarantees that the ‘Gades will let Clowney join the Open Draft unless someone makes a solid trade offer to snap up one of their T-Draft picks.
DT Aaron Donald (Pitt)
Territorial Pool: Pittsburgh Maulers
We hope teams won’t get their hopes up about Donald. There is little to no chance that the Maulers will not select him with their first T-Draft pick. They have a clear need on the interior of their D-line and Donald looks very much like a cannot miss prospect.
LB Khalil Mack (Buffalo)
Territorial Pool: None
This is an exciting prosepct, the rare top tier talent who is not at a protected school. That makes Mack one of the few known quantities in the Open Draft from day one. We cannot imagine he escapes the Top 10 picks in the Open Draft, and could be a good target for the 1st overall pick if Dallas does not go QB in that spot.
LB Anthony Barr (UCLA)
Territorial Pool: Los Angeles Express
Barr is a solid tackler, a fierce competitor, and a natural leader. Those are all things that an aging LA Express LB group could use. We see Barr being the Express’s first territorial pick, even with the rich talent pool they have with USC and UCLA players in their exclusive domain.
LB Ryan Shazier (Ohio State)
Territorial Pool: Ohio Glory
The last of our top 10, and another who could be available in the Open Draft if Ohio has other priorities. Shazier is known for his hitting, and no team passes up on that, but Ohio has needs on both sides of the ball, needs that are more pressing than at LB, so it is conceivable that they will lock up some other Buckeyes and allow Shazier to seek top dollar on the Open Draft market.
There are certainly more than 10 prospects that fans should be excited about. As we review each team’s situation, we will try to present some of the best from each club’s territorial protected schools and some of the best fits should certain players remain available for the Open Draft. Of course, we also realize that typically 50% or more of the picks from the USFL Draft end up on NFL rosters, but last year was a very strong year at the top of the draft for the USFL, so we don’t rule out the possibility that 2014 could see another bumper crop of rookie talent hitting the league.
Team by Team Needs & T-Draft Prospects
Let’s take a look at each club, in their initial first round draft order (assuming no trades happen in the next few weeks, at least for now). We will present each club’s top position of concern, whether for immediate contribution or a need for depth. We will then review the best options each has in the schools they have protected, and finally a possible name to consider in the first round of the Open Draft, if the players somehow make it that far without being selected.
DALLAS ROUGHNECKS
Positions of Need: QB, DE, SS, DT, OT
Top T-Draft Prospects: TCU’s Jason Verrett is a very talented corner, but as a pure fit, Dallas may also look at QB Garrett Gilbert out of SMU to add to their young QB group.
Perfect Fit: If the Bulls don’t jump on South Carolina DE JaDaveon Clowney, you know Dallas will be all over him in the Open Draft.
NEW JERSEY GENERALS
Positions of Need: WR, LB, DE, OG, OT
Top T-Draft Prospects: Losing OU but gaining Wisconsin changes the pool quite a bit for the Generals. This year that pool could provide them a safety in Dezmen Southward, or a LB In Chris Borland, both Badgers.
Perfect Fit: New Jersey needs speed at WR, so either Clemson’s Sammy Watkins or LSU’s Odell Beckham Jr, would be ideal picks at 2.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS
Positions of Need: OT, CB, OG, HB
Top T-Draft Prospects: Do the Bulls go after Clemson WR Sammy Watkins? It is not a high need area, but he is a talent. They do need a corner (or two), so Florida’s Jaylen Watkins or Clemson’s Bashaud Breeland would be good options.
Perfect Fit: The Bulls want to beef up the O-line, so they could look at someone like Greg Robinson, OT out of Auburn or Jake Matthews out of A&M. If Michigan passes on protecting Wolverine Jake Lewan, he too could be on their radar.
NASHVILLE KNIGHTS
Positions of Need: DE, G, OT, LB, HB, WR
Top T-Draft Prospects: Not a deep pool for the Knights, but right at the top is OT Ja’Waun James, a definite need pick for Nashville’s rebuilding O-line.
Perfect Fit: If Clowney somehow is there at pick 4, they will jump on him, if not, the next best option may be Auburn’s Dee Ford.
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS
Positions of Need: FS, LB, TE, OG, K
Top T-Draft Prospects: A good selection of talent for the Showboats. We know they like FS Lonnie Ballentine, but what about a wideout like Donte Moncrief or a guard like Kadeem Edwards from Tennessee State?
Perfect Fit: Safety is a tough pick to make this early, but if they are serious about the need, they have either Louisville’s Calvin Pryor or Alabama’s Ha Ha Clinton Dix both possibly here at 5.
MICHIGAN PANTHERS
Positions of Need: CB, WR, OG, DT, FS
Top T-Draft Prospects: A pretty slim list out of UM and MSU this year, but if the Panthers can land OT Taylor Lewan or CB Darqueze Dennard, they will be happy.
Perfect Fit: The Panthers and Coach Johnson will want to shore up that secondary, so how about a top flight corner like OK State’s Justin Gilbert, Va Tech’s Kyle Fuller, or TCU’s Jason Verett?
SEATTLE DRAGONS
Positions of Need: LB, DE, DT, OG, FS, P
Top T-Draft Prospects: We love Boise State’s DeMarcus Lawrence as a good fit for the Dragon D-line, but they should also take a long look at safety Deone Bucannon out of Wash State, and, of course, Bishop Sankey is another top target for the Dragons.
Perfect Fit: Seattle needs some stopping power at LB. Are they comfortable that Buffalo’s Khalil Mack will drop to 7, or do they need to make a move up the board to get a shot at a player who is not coming out of a T-Draft protected school?
HOUSTON GAMBLERS
Positions of Need: HB, C, WR, CB, QB
Top T-Draft Prospects: A great group coming out of Texas A&M, but do the Gamblers prioritize Manziel or his top target, Mike Evans? How about tackle Jake Matthews? Solid talent to pick from and certainly offers will be on the table for a chance to land Manziel.
Perfect Fit: If Houston picks and signs Johnny Manziel, that will show us a lot. But if they trade that T-Draft pick, they could have several 1st round picks on tap. That gives them a lot of options. We like a halfback early if that is the case. How about Bishop Sankey out of UW (assuming the Dragons don’t pick him.)
TAMPA BAY BANDITS
Positions of Need: DT, SS, LB, WR, FS
Top T-Draft Prospects: So much talent out of FSU this year. The best fit for the Bandits may be either safety LaMarcus Joyner or DT Timmy Jernigan, but what about Terrence Brooks, HB Devonta Freeman, or WR Kelvin Benjamin. Some quality Seminoles on the board to be sure.
Perfect Fit: If somehow Aaron Donald slips past the Maulers (how?), the Bandits will not hesitate to jump on the Pitt product.
LAS VEGAS THUNDER
Positions of Need: CB, LB, HB, DE, FB
Top T-Draft Prospects: The Thunder’s schools (BYU, UTAH, and UNLV) rarely produce a truly solid pool, often requiring a 4th school be added. At least this year there is one clear choice, LB Kyle Van Noy out of BYU is a must-target for the Thunder D.
Perfect Fit: Another team looking for a corner. They like both Gilbert (OK State) and Fuller (Va Tech), so we will see who is on the board with this pick.
PITTSBURGH MAULERS
Positions of Need: DT, QB, TE, HB, LB
Top T-Draft Prospects: If the Maulers do not throw everything they have at signing Pitt DT Aaron Donald, they will be guilty of malpractice. A better plug-and-play defender has not come out of the college ranks in years and it is a position of need for the club as well.
Perfect Fit: Let’s assume that the Maulers get their DT in Donald. So, next up is a backup QB or a halfback. We think there is a good chance that either Teddy Bridgewater or Blake Bortles will be here at this pick.
PORTLAND STAGS
Positions of Need: CB, WR, OT, TE, P
Top T-Draft Prospects: We like Brandin Cooks as a target for the Stags and for QB Matt McGloin. He could help take the top off the defense.
Perfect Fit: Wideout and Corner are the two biggest needs, but if one of the big tackles is still here, they may have to jump on that.
ST. LOUIS SKYHAWKS
Positions of Need: DE, SS, CB, QB, WR
Top T-Draft Prospects: Iowa and Missouri have some interesting players to look at, including Hawkeye LBs Christian Kirksey and Anthony Hitchens and Mizzou CB E. J. Gaines. DE Michael Sam is a bit of a controversial choice, but he has some talent, and that can be the most important factor.
Perfect Fit: Dee Ford or DeMarcus Lawrence would need to clear the T-Draft, but St. Louis would be very happy if one of those big DE’s was to be had with their first Open Draft pick.
BALTIMORE BLITZ
Positions of Need: HB, DT, LB, OT, DE
Top T-Draft Prospects: We think the Blitz will take a shot at both safety Calvin Pryor and LB Marcus Smith, both out of Louisville. Do they also look at Teddy Bridgewater? Or would that send a bad message to Big Ben?
Perfect Fit: The Blitz want a big pounding running back. That is not Bishop Sankey, but it could be Carlos Hyde from Ohio State, and the Glory don’t seem inclined to spend the money needed to land him as a backup to Isaiah Pead, so he could be here.
OHIO GLORY
Positions of Need: SS, OT, DE, FS, C, LB
Top T-Draft Prospects: LB Ryan Shazier and CB Bradley Roby are both top flight options for the Glory, though perhaps Shazier is a better need pick. We also like OT Jack Mewhort, and maybe even HB Carlos Hyde, all Buckeyes, though Isaiah Pead’s outstanding 2013 may make the Hyde pick unneeded.
Perfect Fit: Speaking of Ohio, they should solve some of their problems in the T-Draft, but they could be in the market for a tackle or a safety. Calvin Pryor from Louisville would be a nice fit, as would OT Ja’Wuan James out of Tennessee.
ORLANDO RENEGADES
Positions of Need: LB, DT, DE, QB, OT
Top T-Draft Prospects: The best player by far is DE JaDaveon Clowney, but can the Renegades really invest big money in Clowney as they restructure Calais Campbell to be the highest paid defender in the game today? If they pass on Clowney, expect them to look at O-line with picks in the T-Draft.
Perfect Fit: The Renegades are hoping some of the topflight linebackers like Shazier, Barr, or Mack somehow escape the T-Draft and at least one of them is still on the board here. If not, they may have to look at OT.
BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS
Positions of Need: WR, OT, DT, QB, TE
Top T-Draft Prospects: We love Greg Robinson, the big burley Auburn tackle as a perfect fit for the Stallions, and they might also take a look at safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix or DE Dee Ford out of Auburn as well.
Perfect Fit: The Stallions have needs on both lines, but they also need to address the retirements of both Moss and Owens, so we expect them to draft several wideouts. How about starting with big Mike Evans out of A&M, a receiver who will high point the ball and win those 50/50 matchups?
ATLANTA FIRE
Positions of Need: C, FS, LB, WR, K
Top T-Draft Prospects: QB Aaron Murray is an intriguing prospect, but just not a need position for the Fire. A much better fit would be at WR, where Albert Wilson is a low risk pick, very likely to sign. We also like TE Arthur Lynch as a possible weapon for the Fire offense.
Perfect Fit: Center is a weird position to take in the first round. It is a clear need, but will they stretch to take a Weston Richburg (Colorado State) or Marcus Martin (USC) when one or both could be there in the 2nd round?
DENVER GOLD
Positions of Need: DE, LB, HB, C, TE
Top T-Draft Prospects: Not a great pool for Denver, but a good potential pool for adding depth (not impact). OG Spencer Long from Nebraska, LB Shaquil Barrett from Colorado State, or WR Paul Richardson of the Buffs could all be useful additions.
Perfect Fit: As much as we want Denver to go for a flashy playmaker, that has never been their style. How about a solid DE like Notre Dame’s Stephon Tuitt or a hard-hitting LB like Kyle Van Noy, if either get through to the Open Draft.
CHICAGO MACHINE
Positions of Need: LB, OG, DT, TE, HB
Top T-Draft Prospects: Notre Dame could provide all 3 picks for the Machine, between guard Zach Martin, DE Stephon Truitt, TE Troy Niklas, DT Louis Nix, and guard Chris Watt, there is no lack of options for Chicago.
Perfect Fit: This may seem an odd pick, but quality TE play is so important to the Chicago offense, how about UNC’s Eric Ebron at this point in the first round? We don’t think Charlotte is going to protect him and he should drop at least this far.
LOS ANGELES EXPRESS
Positions of Need: DT, WR, TE, LB, QB
Top T-Draft Prospects: The Express have a need for young linebacker and UCLA’s Anthony Barr should be a target. They also want to add a young receiver with Keyshawn retiring, so USC’s Marqise Lee could also be a prime target.
Perfect Fit: If Sammy Watkins or Brandin Cooks are here, the Express will be gleeful. If not, they could do worse than someone like FSU’s Kelvin Benjamin or Vandy’s Jordan Matthews. One way or the other they need a new number one receiver, and a rookie may have to be the answer.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS
Positions of Need: DT, WR, C, DE, K
Top T-Draft Prospects: Not a great pool out of Virginia, Duke and Va Tech, but there is interest in CB Kyle Fuller, from Va Tech and CB Ross Cockrell from Duke.
Perfect Fit: Washington is also hoping there is a quality receiver available, but would be equally happy if a big run-stuffing DT is here, someone like Florida’s Dominique Easley or Minnesota’s Ra’Shede Hageman.
CHARLOTTE MONARCHS
Positions of Need: DT, FS, OT, LB, SS, G
Top T-Draft Prospects: UNC has three talented defenders in DE Kareem Martin, S Tre Boston and CB Jabari Price. We expect Charlotte to target one, two, or all three of these Tarheels.
Perfect Fit: Charlotte is hoping Washington goes wideout, because they want the big DT even more than the Federals do.
NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS
Positions of Need: HB, SS, OT, CB, LB
Top T-Draft Prospects: A good year for LSU equals a good year for the Breaker’s T-Draft. How about WRs O’Dell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry? Or DT Ego Ferguson? HB Jeremy Hill? Or guard Trai Turner?
Perfect Fit: Halfback is the key position with Forte leaving in Free Agency. They could solve this issue with LSU’s Jeremy Hill, but if not, and if Sankey is available, he would fit their run-pass system well.
OAKLAND INVADERS
Positions of Need: WR, LB, TE, K, C
Top T-Draft Prospects: With WR a need, we expect Oakland to take a long look at Fresno State wideout Davante Adams. They could also use a TE who can run the field, and Cal’s Richard Rodgers II fits that bill. On defense, how about LB Trent Murphy of Stanford or Khairi Fortt from Cal?
Perfect Fit: We could see the Invaders swap their way out of the first round, especially if they really like and are able to get reciprocal feelings from Davante Adams at WR in the T-Draft. If not, then a LB like Jeremiah Attaochu (Ga Tech) or Marcus Smith (Louisville) would be a good addition.
PHILADELPHIA STARS
Positions of Need: CB, DE, WR, TE, OT
Top T-Draft Prospects: Penn State has at least one prospect the Stars covet, wideout Allen Robinson. They also will likely take a look at PSU DT DaQuan Jones and BC linebacker Kevin Pierre-Louis.
Perfect Fit: Philadelphia wants a corner more than anything, and the one we like for them is Jason Verett out of TCU. Could they trade to get a T-Draft pick from Dallas to land him? Not out of the question.
ARIZONA WRANGLERS
Positions of Need: OT, DT, LB, HB, K
Top T-Draft Prospects: We love it when opportunity matches need. How is this for a match? DT Will Sutton from ASU to fill Monsanto Pope’s spot? Then you have ASU linebacker Carl Bradford, and, if halfback is an area for some depth, Ka’Deem Carey adds a nice 3rd down dimension that could give Frank Gore some needed snaps off.
Perfect Fit: The last pick in the first round is often a “trade down” position for the defending champion. Doing so saves cash and they still get an early 2nd rounder in most cases. With OT and DT being pretty deep positions, we could see Arizona drop into the early 2nd round and still have a good shot at someone like Dominique Easley (Florida) or Ja’Wuan James (Tennessee).
We will be back in February, right after the USFL Draft, to assess how the draft went, who is likely or unlikely to sign on for some spring football, and review all the trades, free agent signings, and offseason moves. We will see what the coaching situation looks like in Las Vegas and Nashville, and what the league is going to do about the Las Vegas market after the agreement was cut to move the Thunder to San Diego in 2015. So, enjoy the holidays, Merry Christmas everyone, and we will be back just as camps open to look at the situation for your favorite USFL squad. Until then, stay safe, enjoy the holidays, and enjoy the NFL as we gear up for the 32nd USFL season in March. It will be here before you know it.
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