USFL Offseason Report: January 2002

January 4, 2002

Two weeks away from the USFL Territorial and Collegiate Drafts, three weeks from the NFL-USFL Transfer Window for Spring opening, and there is a lot happening in the spring league. A sudden retirement announcement throws the defending champions into a panic. A potential franchise sale has many suspecting that another USFL city is about to lose their team. We have a league schedule, and we have a pretty significant free agency recap to cover. All this plus our preview of the league’s first territorial draft in a decade. It’s all right here in our USFL Offseason Report for January.

Mitchell Surprises Everyone with Retirement Announcement

In a stunning announcement just before the holidays, Scott Mitchell, veteran quarterback of the league champion Orlando Renegades, informed the world that he was stepping away from professional football. His retirement was unexpected, particularly so late in the offseason, and certainly leaves Orlando with a difficult situation as they approach the draft and the final weeks of free agency. While Mitchell did not specify what the primary reasons for his late announcement of retirement were, it is well known that Mitchell has been seen in both Orlando and Miami for concerns about his hip.

There are rumors around the league that Mitchell, who played all 16 regular season games as well as the playoffs, was playing through injury. This is unsubstantiated, but there are many saying that Mitchell likely has a degenerative hip condition, much like the one that ended Bo Jackson’s career a decade ago. The 11-season veteran has been visibly less mobile since an injury cost him half of the 1998 season, and there is speculation that he, like Jackson, may be dealing with Chondrolysis (loss of cartilage in the hip joint) as well as some avascular necrosis on the femoral head. While that information is certainly protected by privacy laws, a medical concern would be the most logical reason for Mitchell to step away at this time and with a chance to seek a second title in front of him. If that is the case we certainly wish Scott well as he manages any future therapies or treatments.

As for Orlando, this leaves them in a bit of a pickle. Longstanding backup Craig Erickson was a free agent and is now with the Seattle Dragons. Orlando had only Mike Pawlowski on the roster at Christmas. They have since signed former Breakers backup Gus Frerotte to the roster, but Frerotte hardly seems a likely candidate to be the day one starter in Orlando. He could perhaps serve as a short term option were Orlando to make a move in the draft to sign a rookie prospect such as Fresno State’s David Carr or Oregon’s Joey Harrington, but to do so they would need to give up significant draft or player capital, most likely in trade with the Thunder (who could draft Harrington in the T-Draft) or Oakland (who have Fresno State as a protected school). Among unprotected schools, the top QB prospects are Josh McNown of Sam Houston State and J.T. O’Sullivan of UC Davis, but neither of those two are grading out as season 1 starters. The next option is to look once more in the current USFL free agent pool, where the top remaining QB prospects is former Houston starter Chuck Hartlieb. They could seek a trade, perhaps with a club like Texas, where Jeff Lewis and Ryan Leaf are expected to compete for the starting job, or they could look at the NFL Free Agent Pool, which appears to include New England Patriot QB Drew Bledsoe, former LA Express QB Rodney Peete, and Green Bay backup Doug Pederson. All in all, not a very promising set of options.

With Terry Kirby having retired earlier this year, the Orlando offense now looks to be in serious trouble. They go into the last month before camps open with no clear QB option and with a running back room of only Amos Zeroue and Shyron Stith. We often see league champions picked apart by free agency in the offseason, but this year it seems retirement is the bigger obstacle for an Orlando repeat attempt.

We focus now on the activity in the offseason hot stove, with several more trades having occurred since our October report, as well as a significant number of free agent signings. We begin with the trades across the league.

Perhaps the biggest trade of the past 2 months was between the Express and the new Nashville Knights. Nashville, eager to maintain its strong defensive line play, despite the loss of John Jurkovic and Montae Reagor to free agency, made a deal to bring a top flight DE to the Music City. LA, seeking more explosiveness on offense, sent Antonio Edwards to Nashville in return for young wideout Amani Toomer. Toomer is expected to start opposite Tory Holt, forcing defenses to single cover one of the two potential deep threats, and allowing veteran Mike Pritchard to serve as the 3rd receiver. Edwards will start in Nashville opposite Chad Bradtske, with James Manley in the middle, potentially rotating with Ernest Grant.

Ohio continues to rebuild their WR corps after the departures of Mike Bellamy (FA) and Qadry Ismail (Retired), trading with Denver for Gold wideout Robert Ferguson. In return Denver receives some secondary help in SS Lloyd Lee, as well as a 4th round draft pick from the Glory. Expect Ferguson to be the #3 receiver in Ohio. With Joey Galloway and Chad Johnson the clear 1-2 combination.

Tampa Bay brought in some veteran savvy to their linebacker group, trading a 5th round pick to New Orleans for veteran Monty Beisel. Beisel is likely to serve as the 2nd MLB in Tampa’s 4-3, subbing for Kevin Mitchell and providing depth behind starters Keith McCants and Zeke Moreno as well.

Chicago solved their kicker vacancy through trade, following the move of John Carney back to the NFL. The Machine paid a price to bring Tim Seder over from Texas, sending LB Jamie Winborn over to the Outlaws. Texas needed more out of their LB corps, and Winborn can be an impact player. Seems a lot to give up for a kicker, but Chicago felt that bringing in a veteran with a proven record of accuracy was essential in the swirling winds of Soldier Field.

Denver and Oakland also completed a player for player trade, with guard Tony Semple headed from Mile High to the Bay, while CB Clayton Holmes will be another addition to the Gold’s secondary.

We expect to see some more wheeling and dealing over the next few weeks, particularly pre-draft and on draft day. With Orlando’s need for a QB, don’t be surprised if we see action either for a veteran backup or to snag one of those key T-Draft slots for either Carr or Harrington.

While we saw a few interesting trades these past couple of months, the larger action has been on the free agency front. Across the league there will be veterans joining new clubs, some already at the top of their games, others seeking a new start. Here are the major signings from October, November, and December.

We all expected the Nashville Knights to take a swing at former Tennessee Vol and longtime Washington Federal wideout Herman Moore, but their in-state rival beat them to the punch. Memphis has signed Herman Moore to a 3-year deal, perhaps as an attempt to retain potential fans who could switch over to the Knights. Moore will now be catching passes from another Volunteer, All-USFL QB Heath Shuler.

The top-rated tackle in the free agent pool, former Breaker Troy Auzene, has found a new home in Washington. Auzene signed with the Federals just before Thanksgiving, making it a happy holiday for Federals QB Kordell Stewart. So the Feds lose their top receiver, but gain a bookend tackle.

Tampa Bay continues to try to build a top flight defense, adding former Glory DE John Copeland to their roster. Copeland will likely take over the RE position, freeing up the speedy Santana Dotson on the left side. That could be a very dynamic combo with power on one side and speed on the other.

Two linebackers are in new homes, with Express MLB Danta Jones now headed to Birmingham and former General Dwayne Rudd moving on to the Federals (who seem to be staying busy this offseason).

Nashville missed out on Herman Moore, but by Christmas they had added a receiver to line up opposite Bert Emmanuel, signing Derick Mason away from the Houston Gamblers. Mason has shown flashes in Houston but was often overshadowed by Antonio Freeman and Koren Robinson. He gets a chance to share the spotlight in Nashville.

Perhaps the best safety in the free agent pool, Blitz veteran Lawyer Milloy, has also found a new home, as he becomes yet another new member of the rebuilding Michigan Panther squad. Expect Milloy to quickly become a team leader for the Panthers.

Another safety changing teams is Free Safety Tyrone Drakeford, who leaves Houston to take his talents to Arizona, a new division rival.

Jacksonville and New Jersey both added D-line help, with the Bulls signing DT Renaldo Wynn away from the Generals, while New Jersey added another DE in Steve Bates, formerly of Seattle.

We are always interested in QB movement, and we have had 3 sign with new teams since our last report. The best of the three, Wrangler backup Craig Whelihan, is headed to Nashville, where he will back up Todd Collins. Young athletic QB Sean King was stuck at 3rd on the depth chart in Pittsburgh, but now may get a chance to vie for a starting job in Philadelphia, where only Will Furrer is currently on the roster. Finally, Jim Miller will join his 4th USFL team, having played for St. Louis, Houston, and Baltimore. Miller’s 4th team in 4 years will be the Maulers, where he will likely sit behind Charlie Batch, but possibly unseat Alex Van Pelt as the #2.

And, finally, three more moves to report, all wide receivers on the go, as Freddie Solomon moves from Pittsburgh to Oakland, Kirby Dar-Dar takes his kick return prowess from Chicago to Texas, and Malcom Floyd becomes yet another Ohio Glory wideout acquisition.

Before we get to our draft preview, a quick look at a few of the non-player stories from across the league these past three months, beginning with a proposed team sale that has many wondering if Atlanta is about to lose their USFL franchise.

ATLANTA SALE PENDING

The Atlanta Fire on December 17th submitted a sealed proposal to the USFL Ownership Committee for review. Sealed proposals generally mean that there is concern that should the information be leaked prior to approval, there could be potential backlash, and that has everyone thinking that the ownership group being proposed is one that would move the Fire franchise out of Atlanta.

This is likely not a shock to most observant followers of USFL politics, as we know that with the sales of the Knights and Thunder, we still have pretty impressive groups in both Dallas and Boston who are still on the hunt for a potential franchise to purchase. And while there were some potential bids from within the Atlanta community, there has been widespread expectation that these bidding groups may not be able to outbid the two well-organized relocation bids. The problem, of course, is that a sale approved during the next few months almost certainly means that Atlanta would be playing out the 2002 seaosn as a lame duck franchise. It is certainly too late to relocate a franchise for 2002, so it is very possible that the Fire could be essentially performing a farewell tour in Atlanta this year before departing for a new destination. That is unlikely to go over well in the Peach City, and we might expect some truly bad crowds, angry fans, and general discontent in Atlanta if this comes to pass.

While the USFL is certainly interested in large markets like either Dallas or Boston, Atlanta is also a valued market. The Fire have failed to live up to potential in Atlanta, largely due to poor personell and coaching decisions which have kept the Fire from improving much since their expansion season in 1995. This, in turn, has made the Fire something of a non-entity in the Atlanta sports scene, and kept ticket sales well below league expectations for the market. So, what is the USFL and Atlanta to do?

Our premise is this. If the bid that is under review is for relocation, the league may slow-play it well into the season so as to not provide an excuse for fans to stay away from Fire games, and then quickly try to set up camp in the new location. The next step is to work with the local Atlanta groups to develop a stronger ownership profile so that if an opportunity arises, potentially through expansion, Atlanta might be a top contender to regain a USFL franchise. We already know that there is significant interest in finding a way to return a team to St. Louis, and we expect demand for an Atlanta franchise might be even more significant. Look to the USFL owners, who are not particularly fond of franchise relocations, seriously considering an expansion round, to 26 or even 28 franchises, as a way to recover franchises in St. Louis, potentially in Atlanta, as well as to make room for cities like Dallas, Boston, Miami, Minneaopolis, or San Diego to obtain teams. This is all speculation at this point, but the news that Atlanta has an ownership proposal in front of the league committee, and that it is a sealed proposal, all but assures that we may be seeing yet another relocation within the next year.

2002 SCHEDULE RELEASED

This week, after significant revision due to the St. Louis relocation to Nashville, the USFL released the 2002 schedule, the first to use a 14 week formula and a six division format. The schedule kicks off a week later, beginning with a Friday matchup on March 20th, with two of the West’s best teams now sitting in opposite conferences. Los Angeles will kick the season off at Chicago, who now find themselves in the Eastern Conference as part of a new Midwest Division with Ohio, Pittsburgh, and archrival Michigan. The entire first week highlights interconference play as the new division alignment comes into play. The six divisions are the Northeast (BAL, NJ, PHI, WSH), Southeast (ATL, JAX, ORL, TBY), and Midwest (CHI, MGN, OHI, PIT) in the East and the Southern (BIR, MEM, NSH, NOR), Southwest (ARZ, DEN, HOU, TEX), and Pacific (LA, OAK, POR, SEA) in the West.

The season’s first week is one of four weeks in which all 24 teams are playing in interconference games. In all other weeks at least half of the league is playing in division while the other half plays interdivisional games within their conference, creating 6 divisional games, 4 conference games and 4 interconference games. The playoff push should be even more dramatic as all 24 teams face their division rivals in Weeks 12 and 14, with a third divisional game either in Week 11 or 13. That will certainly create some drama down the stretch. In most weeks what we see is one conference playing their divisional games while the other plays interdivisional matchups.

What should we expect from this schedule? New rivalries to be sure as Nashville now replaces St. Louis and will play in-state Memphis twice. Michigan now plays Ohio twice in what should become a quick replica of one of college football’s best rivalries. Arizona and Denver will now have 4 games a year against the league’s two Texas clubs, while some traditional foes, such as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia or Houston and New Orleans, now find themselves only playing each other every other year or even every 4 years rather than twice a year. Another expectation is that the new emphasis on divisional games towards the end of the season will mean more teams will be alive in the playoff hunt until the final week of the season. Finally, the other obvious reality of the league moving to a 14-week schedule is that very few season records will be broken with the new format. We may have to recalibrate or imagine new records as the high marks set over 16 weeks will likely be unattainable with two fewer games. The league has committed to this schedule for at least the next 3 seasons, and only time will tell if their gambit of cutting games in order to expand the transfer capacity between the NFL and USFL will pay off. It seems counterintuitive to think the USFL will benefit from 24 fewer regular season games of revenue, but they seem to feel that the shorter season will help them in the long run. Time will tell.

NASHVILLE TO GO GENERIC

Uniform news out of Nashville as the newly relocated Knights revealed their branding plan for the 2002 season. The Knights, not wanting to retain the Gateway Arch as a primary component of their logo, will essentially go without a logo for the 2002 season. The team will use only a wordmark on all print material, while the uniforms will remove the St. Louis logo from the sleeves and helmets. Nashville will wear plain purple helmets and will add player numbers to each side, much like a traditional college team. The jerseys and pants will remain the same, but with no logos on the jersey sleeves.

The team announced in November that they are on track with Reebok to reveal a new logo and uniform before the end of the season. Their goal, as stated in a local press conference is to reveal the logo around midseason, and to potentially wear new uniforms either at the final home game of the year, a tradition borrowed from soccer leagues where it is common that teams reveal the kits for the next season at their final home game, or, should they qualify, that the Knights would wear the new uniforms only during their playoff run.

So, fans of the Knights are being asked to be patient, perhaps purchase some team name sweatshirts and generic jerseys, but expect a big midsummer reveal to spark a new wave of enthusiasm and merchandise.

Two weeks away from the combined Territorial and Open Collegiate Draft, the first time we will see a territorial draft in over a decade, so a lot of focus of just how that will go. It is all about aligning team needs with players available, and making the pitch to sign the players before the NFL Draft in February. The Territorial Draft will provide each team with unfettered access to players from 3 schools each, but only 5 picks, so they have to make them wisely, and not necessarily go for the 5 highest rated players on the board. You want to go for guys who will have a spot on your roster as well as guys who are ready to commit to the USFL. Then, 2 days later we have the Open Draft, when we expect more top prospects to have their names called. The big question this year is whether or not some of the teams looking for a young QB, teams like Orlando, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and maybe Oakland and New Orleans, will make a deal to get one of the top prospects protected by the T-Draft.

We are going to focus on the T-Draft in our Draft Preview, just because it is something we have not seen in a while, but we will try to address where the needs are for each team as we do. We begin with the Eastern Conference.

NORTHEAST DIVISION

BALTIMORE BLITZ

Need Areas: LB, TE, DT, WR

Protected Schools: BC, Va Tech, Maryland

Top Prospects: HB William Green (BC), OT Marc Colombo (BC), WR Andre Davis (Va Tech)

Our Best Guess: Of the top flight players, only Davis fits with team needs, but you can never have enough good tackles, so expect the Blitz to include Colombo on their draft board. Potential midrange talent includes NT Charles Hill (MD) and TE Bob Slowikowski (Va Tech).

NEW JERSEY GENERALS

Need Areas: CB, LB, WR, FS

Protected Schools: Oklahoma, Syracuse, Rutgers

Top Prospects: SS Roy Williams (OU), DE Dwight Freeney (SYR), LB Rocky Calmus (OU)

Our Best Guess: We see NJ going for all three of the players we named, and then possibly takng a shot on HB James Mungro of Syracuse. It is not a deep pool with these three schools, but the three we named are good players if NJ can sign them.

PHILADELPHIA STARS

Need Areas: HB, TE, QB, SS, CB

Protected Schools: Iowa, Penn State, Temple

Top Prospects: HB Ladell Betts (Iowa), FB Omar Easy (PSU), DE Aaron Kampman (Iowa)

Our Best Guess: Betts is a great fit for the Stars, able to spell Stephen Davis for them. Kampman would certainly be a welcome addition as well. No QB help in this group, so they will need to wait for the open draft.

WASHINGTON FEDERALS

Need Areas: WR, G, FS, CB

Protected Schools: Virginia, Marshall, Louisville

Top Prospects: WR Deion Branch (LOU), TE Chris Luzar (UVa), DT Monsanto Pope (UVa)

Our Best Guess: Branch is a no-brainer as the Feds try to fill in the gap left by Herman Moore’s departure. Other than that, it is a pretty week group, though the Feds could add some depth at DT with Pope or at HB with Virginia’s Antwoine Womack.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

ATLANTA FIRE

Need Areas: QB, LB, DT, WR

Protected Schools: Georgia, Ga Tech, East Carolina

Top Prospects: DE Charles Grant (UGA), QB David Garrard (ECU), LB Will Witherspoon (UGA)

Our Best Guess: Atlanta may take a look at Garrard, but he is not an immediate improvement over Brooks and Bulger. More likely they go for DT with Grant, LB with Witherspoon, and then maybe take a shot at one or both of the graduating Georgia safeties, Terreal Bierria and Jermaine Phillips.

JACKSONVILLE BULLS

Need Areas: QB, WR, DE, HB

Protected Schools: FSU, Clemson, Georgia Southern

Top Prospects: WR Javon Walker (FSU), FS Chris Hope (FSU), HB Adrian Peterson (Ga So)

Our Best Guess: Normally FSU would be producing more talent for this pool, and Clemson’s only real prospect is HB Woodrow Dantzler, so this is a tough year for Jacksonville. Walker would fit a need, as would Dantzler, so expect those two to be selected. A possible darkhorse is Peterson, a shifty back out of Division I-AA Georgia Southern.

ORLANDO RENEGADES

Need Areas: QB, HB, FS, CB, T

Protected Schools: Florida, South Carolina, UCF

Top Prospects: WR Jabar Gaffney (Fla), DE Kalimba Edwards (USC), OT Mike Pearson (Fla)

Our Best Guess: Mitchel’s retirement completely changes the calculus for Orlando. There are no top tier QB’s in this protected group, so the Renegades may have to make trades to get in on that action. There is talent here at a lot of key positions, including Gafney, Edwards, Pearson, as well as WR Reche Caldwell and LB Andra Davis, if that is what Orlando goes for.

TAMPA BAY BANDITS

Need Areas: CB, C, TE, LB

Protected Schools: Miami, Mississippi State, USF

Top Prospects: OT Bryant McKinnie (Miami), TE Jeremy Shockey (Miami), CB Phillip Buchanon (Miami)

Our Best Guess: It is a pool dominated by “The U”. In addition to the three listed above you also have FS Ed Reed, CB Mike Rumph, and HB Clinton Portis. Looking at Tampa’s needs, the best options here are to go for Rumph or Buchanon (or both). Rumors also have several teams hoping to trade with Tampa to try to get Ed Reed because Free Safety is a tough position to find top level talent and Reed definitely has it.

MIDWEST DIVISION

CHICAGO MACHINE

Need Areas: WR, C, LB, DT, DE

Protected Schools: Notre Dame, Illinois, Northern Illinois

Top Prospects: DE Anthony Weaver (ND), LB Rocky Boiman (ND), TE John Owens (ND)

Our Best Guess: Chicago is not going to find a starting wideout from these three schools, though they could take a shot at a raw talent like NIU’s Darrell Hill. Expect Weaver to be a priority, and maybe Notre Dame’s other DE prospect, Grant Irons as well.

MICHIGAN PANTHERS

Need Areas: DT, HB, TE, C, T

Protected Schools: Michigan, Michigan State, Central Michigan

Top Prospects: HB T.J. Duckett (MSU), WR Marquise Walker (UM), TE Chris Baker (UM)

Our Best Guess: Duckett and Baker are absolutely going to be targeted by the Panthers. Others who could also get a look, based on need, include MSU DT Josh Shaw, and Michigan guard (who could play center) Jonathan Goodwin.

OHIO GLORY

Need Areas: G, DE, LB, FS

Protected Schools: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Cincinnati

Top Prospects: DT Wendell Bryant (Wisc), C LeCharles Bentley (OSU), CB Derek Ross (OSU)

Our Best Guess: The top talent in this pool does not really align with Ohio’s team needs, but you don’t pass up on talent, right? So, expect Bentley to be drafted, and after that, who knows. There are two decent prospects at LB in Wisconsin’s Nick Greison and OSU’s Courtland Bullard, both of whom the Glory could take a shot at.

PITTSBURGH MAULERS

Need Areas: WR, T, DT, LB

Protected Schools: Pitt, Purdue, West Virginia

Top Prospects: WR Antonio Bryant (PIT), LB Akin Ayodele (Purdue), K Travis Dorsch (Purdue)

Our Best Guess: We think Ayodele is a good target for the Maulers, as is Pitt LB Bryan Knight. Antonio Bryant has to be chosen as well. Beyond that, they could look at someone like FB Corey McIntyre as a developmental prospect.

SOUTHERN DIVISION

BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS

Need Areas: DT, WR, G, T

Protected Schools: Alabama, Auburn, Southern Miss

Top Prospects: G Kendall Simmons (AUB), WR Tim Carter (AUB), LB Saleem Rasheed (Bama)

Our Best Guess: When you have Auburn and Alabama in your pool, you will always have talent to choose from. In addition to the three we named above, there is also wideouts Jason McAddley and Freddie Milons of Bama and safety Chad Williams of Southern Miss. Birmingham could also take a flier on Southern Miss QB Jeff Kelly, if only to give Brett Favre a fellow Golden Eagle to pal around with.

MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS

Need Areas: DE, CB, WR, G, LB

Protected Schools: Tennessee, Arkansas, Vanderbilt

Top Prospects: DT John Henderson (Tenn), WR Donte Stallworth (Tenn), DT Albert Haynesworth (Tenn)

Our Best Guess: The pools for each team were set before Nashville got the Knights, so the Showboats have control of the two biggest in-state schools (at least for now, they may have to repick next year). From those three, the draft is expected to be dominated by the Vols, who have the three players named above, but also guard Fred Weary, LB Will Overstreet, and HB Travis Stephens available.

NASHVILLE KNIGHTS

Need Areas: TE, CB, T, QB, DE

Protected Schools: Kansas State, Missouri, Louisiana Tech

Top Prospects: S Bobby Gray (LA Tech), TE Dwayne Blakely (Mizzou), HB John Simon (La Tech)

Our Best Guess: The Knights have just abysmal options from three schools that simply don’t measure up. Expect Nashville to push hard for a recalibration so they can get in on some SEC action in next year’s draft. For this year, the three players listed above are truly the only ones worth picking, so don’t expect Nashville to invest much time in their T-Draft this season.

NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS

Need Areas: T, LB, G, TE

Protected Schools: LSU, Ole Miss, Tulane

Top Prospects: QB Patrick Ramsey (Tulane), WR Josh Reed (LSU), G Terrance Metcalf (Ole Miss)

Our Best Guess: Ramsey is an interesting prospect. The Breakers may take a shot at him despite the good play of Trent Dilfer this year, or they could take offers from a QB-desperate team to get that pick and then use a later pick on a flier like LSU QB Rohan Davey. The best fits for the Breakers’ needs are Metcalf at guard and LSU TE Robert Royal.

SOUTHWEST DIVISION

ARIZONA WRANGLERS

Need Areas: FS, DT, T, HB, DE

Protected Schools: Arizona, ASU, Utah

Top Prospects: T Levi Jones (ASU), WR Cliff Russell (Utah), C Scott Peters (ASU)

Our Best Guess: Jones is a sure pick, and likely ASU’s RT as well, Kyle Kosier. Utah DT Ma’ake Kemoeatu could also be intriguing.

DENVER GOLD

Need Areas: DT, LB, G, CB, HB

Protected Schools: Nebraska, Colorado, BYU

Top Prospects: TE Daniel Graham (Colo), C Andre Gurode (Colo), G Toniu Fonoti (Neb)

Our Best Guess: The Gold are not going to find a back to replace Salaam in this pool of schools, but they could find some useful talent like Fonoti at guard, BYU’s Doug Jolley at TE, or DE Ryan Denney of BYU. Not a lot in key need areas, but good potential depth-building.

HOUSTON GAMBLERS

Need Areas: FS, CB, LB, G, DT

Protected Schools: Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Houston

Top Prospects: C Seth McKinney (TAMU), S Kevin Curtis (TTU), DT Rocky Bernard (TAMU)

Our Best Guess: Bernard is a need pick. Beyond that there is no clear path for the Gamblers in this 3-school pairing. None of the remaining talent is expected to be more than late round fodder. Not a great year for A&M or Tech in the Houston roster of schools.

TEXAS OUTLAWS

Need Areas: HB, TE, WR, DE, C

Protected Schools: Texas, TCU, SMU

Top Prospects: T Mike Williams (UT), CB Quentin Jammer (UT), TE Matt Schobel (TCU)

Our Best Guess: Schobel fills a need for sure, and the Outlaws cannot pass up on Jammer even if CB is not a high need area. They may take offers on their first pick if someone is seeking to land Williams, a top 5 prospect.

PACIFIC DIVISION

LOS ANGELES EXPRESS

Need Areas: LB, WR, K, DT

Protected Schools: USC, UCLA, San Diego State

Top Prospects: LB Robert Thomas (UCLA), HB DeShaun Foster (UCLA), G Chester Pitts (SDSU)

Our Best Guess: Both Thomas and Foster would be solid additions for the Express, who are losing Michael Pittman in their backfield. A darkhorse at LB is UCLA’s Ryan Nece, who has had a strong senior year.

OAKLAND INVADERS

Need Areas: WR, T, HB, G, QB

Protected Schools: Cal, Stanford, Fresno State

Top Prospects: QB David Carr (Fresno), T Langston Walker (Cal), SS Coy Wire (Stanford)

Our Best Guess: Does Oakland feel secure enough at QB to pass up on David Carr? Or will they get a good trade offer so that someone else can nab him before the open draft? We expect the latter to be what happens because Oakland seems OK with Jon Kitna and Marques Tuiasosopo going into camp. They likely will try to beef up the line, and could not do better than Langston Walker to help that process. Brian Allen is a decent tailback out of Stanford, but not quite what the Invaders need.

PORTLAND THUNDER

Need Areas: G, FS, DT, T

Protected Schools: Oregon, Oregon State, Boise St.

Top Prospects: QB Joey Harrington (Ore), HB Maurice Morris (Ore), CB Rashad Bauman (Ore)

Our Best Guess: Expect a full court press from several teams to get the top pick here. Joey Harrington is an intriguing QB prospect and with the success Akili Smith found last season, Portland is open to trade the pick to allow someone else to nab him. Unfortunately for Portland, the best players in this grouping simply don’t align with top needs, so a trade, to get more picks in the Open Draft, may be the best strategy for the Thunder.

SEATTLE DRAGONS

Need Areas: DE, CB, WR, TE, T

Protected Schools: Washington, Wash State, Hawaii

Top Prospects: WR Ashley Lelie (Haw), TE Jerramy Stevens (UW), LB Raonall Smith (WSU)

Our Best Guess: Seattle is fortunate in that the two top prospects in their pool actually align well with team needs. If they can sign Lelie and Stevens, they will help their offense out quite a bit even before the Open Draft. Others they should look at include DT Larry Triplett from the Huskies and LB Smith. You can never have enough hard hitting LBs.

So, as we wrap up, let’s just take a look at the Top 10 players who are not potential T-Draft picks because they play for unclaimed schools. These are players who could see their value skyrocket for the Open Draft as other, perhaps higher graded players, are scooped up in the T-Draft.

DE Julius Peppers (UNC): Absolutely the top pick in the Open Draft. But will Atlanta field trade offers to get that pick? They have solid talent at DE, so they could field an offer, for the right price.

DT Ryan Simms (UNC): Another Tarheel on the D-Line who should see his draft status soar. Lots of teams looking for DT help, so expect him to also be a top choice.

DE Bryan Thomas (UAB): Another D-lineman who could clean up in the Open Draft. Funny that Birmingham passed up a chance at him by choosing Southern Miss instead of UAB as their third protected school.

LB Napoleon Harris (Northwestern): Are we seeing a pattern? This is a deep draft on defense. Harris is a potential 1st round pick if a team is still feeling unsettled at LB.

DE Eddie Freeman (UAB): That makes 5 defenders, with 4 from the D-Line among the Top 10 unprotected players.

LB Levar Fisher (NC State): Graded just below Harris, Fisher is still a very solid prospect.

DE Anton Palepoi (UNLV): OK, This is getting ridiculous. We are going to have to save the last 3 spots for offensive players just to get a few on the list. Yes, a deep defensive draft to be sure.

WR Anwaan Randle-El (Indiana): The IU quarterback is already resigned to being drafted at the wideout position. He could be a great multi-use player, as a runner, receiver, and kick returner.

T Jeff Hatch (Penn): That is Penn, as in Ivy League, not Penn State.

QB Josh McCown (Sam Houston State): The only QB to crack our list, and a rare Division 1-AA prospect at that. McCown has a gun for an arm, but is a bit raw, so expect him to perhaps move up to the 2nd round but no higher.

Next Up:

Our Post-Draft, Preseason recap in February. All the draft day trades, rookie signings, NFL transfer window deals, and late free agent pickups as teams lock in their rosters before the March kickoff. You won’t want to miss that.