Sporting News, February 20, 1987
As the USFL prepares for its 5th spring season there is a mix of optimism and concern for the league. On the one hand the league has been ambitious with its signing of NFL calibre talent and its expansion, first from 12 to 16 teams in 1984 and now to 20 teams for the 1987 season, but with growth have come growing pains. There are concerns that rapid growth has led to a league of haves and have-nots, with wildly different franchise capitalization and uneven support for franchises across the country. It seems that the same 4-5 teams are present in the playoffs each year just as the same 4-5 teams always find themselves at the bottom of the standings. There is also concern that the ongoing player war between the USFL and the NFL is one the USFL is simply unable to win in the long term, when revenue from television, sponsorship and ticket sales is simply not in the same ballpark of that found in the senior league.
While talk of a fall season and possible merger has been quelled since the 1984 vote, there are still many within the league who question the sustainability of the spring model, or the current spending levels for the USFL. But as often is the case when we approach the kickoff weekend of a season, the main questions are those related to what we will see on the playing field. With so much changeover in USFL rosters, from the loss of major stars such as QB Bobby Hebert and DE Junior Ah You, and the shocking movement of others from established teams to expansion teams, including 3 starting QB’s, the 1987 season feels almost like a reboot, and that means that there are a lot of fans in new places hoping their team can compete and a lot in the homes of established playoff contenders wondering if their squad has retained enough to hold their position. So, in this year of so many questions, we are choosing to put aside the usual team-by-team preview and focus on the questions on everyone’s minds.
Here are the Top 10 questions being asked around the USFL as we gear up for the 1987 season.
1. Can any of the new expansion teams be immediately competitive?
The easy answer to this is no. As we saw in 1984, when none of the 4 expansion teams (Houston, Pittsburgh, Memphis and Jacksonville) made the playoffs even with the field expanding, the presence of a few big names and some quality players is not enough to compete right away. It took Jacksonville 2 seasons to equalize their roster depth and talent with those of founding 1983 franchises and none of the other three have been able to do so yet. Sure, you can point to some of the high quality players on 1987 expansion teams, players like Doug Williams in Oklahoma, Putt Choate and Rick Neuheisel in San Antonio, Reggie Collier and Curtis Bledsoe in Orlando, or Clay Matthews and Albert Bentley in Chicago, but the rest of these rosters is a mishmash of USFL talent, rookies, and free agents pulled from a pretty shallow pool. While we expect that the four new teams will get their share of wins, we expect them to fall short, even with an expanded 10 team playoff.
2. Are any perennial also-rans poised to take the next step?
It is here where we see some potential. Houston has finished at 7-9 for all three years of their existence, but they got there last year by winning their final 5 games of the year, all after adjusting their offensive tempo and playcalling to maximize the talents of QB Jim Kelly. They took some hits to their roster this offseason, but so did everyone else. We predict that this is the year that the Gamblers start winning. There is also hope in Washington, where the addition of both QB Neil Lomax and rookie DT Jerome Brown indicate that the Federals are making a push. In an Atlantic Division where it has always been Philly and the Also-Rans, Washington has a shot to finally make a serious playoff push.
3. Which rookies seem poised to contribute immediately?
There are a lot of rookies who look like Week One starters, including potentially at QB in Jacksonville, where Oregon’s Chris Miller is challenging former San Diego Charger QB Ed Luther. We expect to see a lot of touches for skills players such as HB Paul Palmer (OAK) and Brent Fullwood (BIR), though both are sitting behind established workhorse backs in Arthur Whittington and Joe Cribbs. Denver is almost certainly going to find ways to get the ball into the hands of wideouts Mark Carrier and Odessa Turner, and we anticipate that both lines and the defensive backfields of many teams will see some rookies contribute early. Looking for potential stars, we love what we have seen in camp from Washington DT Jerome Brown and from Oklahoma Outlaw LB Brian Bosworth, but the player who has truly impressed everyone in camp is LA Express RB Christian Okoye. The “Nigerian Nightmare” from tiny Asuza Pacific University has been a wrecking ball in camp. While he may not unseat all-purpose back Tony Boddie in the LA lineup, he will get some chances to overpower defenders as a short yardage and goal line back.
4. Which teams may suffer through ongoing QB controversies?
Michigan is a clear choice, as fans lamenting the loss of 4-time All-USFL QB and 2-time USFL Championship MVP QB Bobby Hebert, are just not sold on either Jack Trudeau or NFL vet Jeff Kemp. In Chicago there is a 3 player race between Iowa grad Chuck Long, former Maulers starter Todd Blackledge and longtime Blitz backup Blair Kiel. We give the edge to Long but his leash may be a short one if Chicago cannot muster offense early in the year. We also know that Tony Eason’s position in New Orleans is always tenuous as well, but the clearest case for a potential QB controversy is in Arizona, where the unanticipated trade of Rick Neuheisel puts the pressure on untested Robby Bosco to perform. Bosco is backed up by the ageless Greg Landry and rookie Kelly Stouffer. If Bosco flounders, we expect one or both of his understudies to get a shot to prove they should be running the show.
5. Is Neil Lomax a difference maker in Washington?
The signing of Lomax was one of the biggest moves of the offseason, and something unexpected of the often unassuming Federals. New Head Coach Sam Rutigliano is trying to replicate the success he had with Brian Sipe in Cleveland and hopes that Lomax, a true gunslinger, will be just the right hand at the rudder to guide Washington to its first winning record and playoff appearance. We like their chances. This is an 8-8 team from last year that has improved in several key areas of their roster, and QB is certainly one of them. Lomax brings a cocky personality and a rocket arm to the Feds and with a solid run game already in place, we think he will be able to pick apart USFL defenses and find ways to lead the Federals to the promised land.
6. Which players are risking their jobs in a make or break year?
Few players in the league have been as criticized and analyzed as New Jersey QB Doug Flutie. The former Heisman winner came to the Generals with much promise, but it is jettisoned starter Brian Sipe, last year’s MVP who has had the better run these past two years. Flutie, and the Generals overall, have simply underperformed. Coach Perkins has to find a way to maximize the talents that Flutie possesses, rather than try to force the diminutive QB to be a traditional pocket passer. The Generals need to establish the run with Walker, use play action, roll Flutie out of the pocket to give him clear passing lanes, and script some bootleg and option style runs to make use of his escapability. Another poor year from Flutie and the Generals and ownership may start looking for ways to shop the gifted but underutilized quarterback.
7. Which playoff teams are on the shakiest ground?
The casual fan may say Michigan, but despite the loss of Bobby Hebert, the Panthers will still almost certainly return a Top 5 defense and a lot of talent across the roster. Jacksonville is the other obvious pick. The loss of Doug Williams, while essentially forced by Williams himself, puts Jacksonville in a very tough spot. There defense is not elite, their run game is solid but not enough to carry the team, and their QB position is now a huge question mark. We could easily see Tampa Bay, with a far more stable pecking order in key positions, leapfrog the Bulls, and both Birmingham and Memphis look much improved as well.
8. Who will win the Pacific Division?
This seems like the $64,000 question every year. For 4 years the Pacific has been the league’s most balanced and most unpredictable division. In 1983 the title went to Denver, in ’84 and ’85 LA barely beat out Arizona and Denver, and in ’86 it was Oakland. So, who looks strongest this year? As odd as it sounds, the last place LA Express may just have what it takes to jump from worst to first. They are still solid on defense, despite losing top tackler Danny Rich. DT Jerry Ball looks like a day 1 starter, and Christian Okoye may add a dimension on offense which the Express tried to develop in the departed Kevin Mack. Oakland will be the most likely foe LA must pass to get the title, as Brian Sipe still has Arthur Whittington and wideouts Mark Duper and Henry Ellard at his disposal. The Oakland D took some hits in the offseason, so the key may lie there. As for Denver and Arizona, both have a lot of question marks, but that does not mean that they are destined for failure. If the first four years of the USFL prove anything, it is that the Pacific Division will come down to a few key games over the course of the year.
9. Who looks stronger after this year’s bizarre offseason?
We already spoke about LA and Washington, so let’s talk about another team that added some key pieces this offseason, the Houston Gamblers. Houston has always had solid talent at QB, HB and WR, but their line has caused Jim Kelly to scramble far too much, and the defense has not done their part. While they did lose some talent at wideout with the departure of Gerald McNeil and Richard Johnson, they gained in the areas they needed most. Their rookie class, while not possessing the splashy names of some other draft pools, has solid talent in key areas. For the O-line we expect that T Harris Barton will start at RT immediately and somewhat unheralded Alabama A&M tackle Howard Ballard also looks like he will get some snaps perhaps at left tackle. On defense we see LB Johnny Holland as a plug and play guy, and we also like what we have seen from CB Mike Adams in camp. Houston needed to improve in some basic areas and it looks like they did, without spending big on NFL talent.
10. Can Jack Trudeau really lead Michigan to a repeat Championship?
This is the question everyone is asking. For four years Michigan has looked like the league’s best team, winning the title twice and losing out two other times due mainly to key injuries in the season’s final weeks (Hebert in ’83 and John Corker in ’85). But with the loss of their star player and team leader, what will the Panthers look like this year. Well, let’s start by saying that we do not expect this squad, despite its many strengths, to put a serious bid in on an undefeated season, as we saw the past 2 years. They are likely to struggle early as they try to find an offensive groove. They will need to rely more on John Williams and on that defense this year. They may look shaky at times, but this is a roster with a lot of talent, and if Trudeau can manage games, avoid costly errors, and let the full roster earn wins, the Panthers could still be a contender. Tales of their untimely demise may, in fact, be overrated.