Sporting News, May 2, 1989
We have reached the midpoint of the 1989 USFL season and what we can say for sure is that there is a lot of balance in the league. Other than the tragic case of the 0-8 Portland Thunder, the league is seeing a balance of power that keeps every fanbase hopeful and every coach up late. Early season slumps from Birmingham and Philadelphia seem to be turning around. Teams like Tampa, Chicago, and Oakland, who were not expected to make a splash, are proving difficult outs, while others like LA, Houston, and New Orleans are not proving to be the juggernauts that many predicted. As we look through the league at the midway point, let’s put on the rosey glasses of optimism and the grey, smudged glasses of pessimism and see what we see for each team.
BIRMINGHAM (6-2)
ROSEY: Things are looking good as the Stallions brushed off an 0-2 start and have won 6 straight. The Stallions are doing it with defense, as they currently rank #1 in the league in both scoring defense and total yards. That is a good thing to hang your hat on. On offense they still have one of the most steady quarterback situations in the league and can depend on Joe Cribbs to get them 1,000 yards once again. Things are looking good in the Steel City of the South.
GREY: The biggest concern for Birmingham is whether the season-ending injury to Bob Barber will make both their run defense and their pass rush less effective. It is hard to overstate the impact that Barber has on the Stallions D, and while Art Still is certainly a tough DE to block he will now be facing a lot more double teams as the other side of the Stallions line is no longer nearly the same type of concern.
PREDICTION: We still see a lot to like here. We think they snag another 5 wins, to end up at 11-5.
MICHIGAN (6-2)
ROSEY: Jack Trudeau is having his best season as a Panther, the defense is Top 5 against the pass and in overall yards, and the Panthers can score points with Williams, Carter and Holloway still looking like vintage championship shape.
GREY: That loss to New Orleans has absolutely created concern at the end of what otherwise was a very rosey first half of the year. The way New Orleans was able to pressure Trudeau (and the other quarterbacks who saw action) may have just given a formula to other teams. The Panthers still have to worry about a very tough division, with the Breakers, Gamblers, Outlaws, and even the Machine looking very competitive.
PREDICTION: We think the Panthers will get pulled back to the pack but not enough to miss out on the post-season. Expect 10-6 as a reasonable result for the year.
DENVER (6-2)
ROSEY: The Gold are the Gold are the Gold. They play good defense, they wear teams down, they play in perhaps the weakest division in the league. What is there to worry about. Denver is Top 10 in both scoring and scoring defense. They rarely self-destruct, and they have a pretty manageable schedule. If they play their cards right they could clinch the division early and rest some players.
GREY: Denver wins a lot of games against lesser opponents, which is fine for getting to the playoffs, but once there, what can we expect? The Gold have folded pretty early in almost every postseason since 1984, and that cannot be comforting to either ownership or the fans.
PREDICTION: Denver very well may win the Pacific Division, but their 6 wins so far have not created a sense of destiny with this team. We still think they end up with 10 or 11 wins for the year, but wonder what they can do once the playoffs begin.
NEW JERSEY (4-3-1)
ROSEY: When you have one of the best running games in football, you will win games. That is the philosophy of New Jersey, and while they are not lighting up the league each week, it does seem to be working for them. Add in a pretty decent run defense and a quarterback who can rally the team when needed and the Generals have what it takes to win the Division and get a playoff bye.
GREY: Not so fast. Yes, having Herschel Walker gives New Jersey an amazing weapon, but is this Generals team any different from those of past years, who fail to put the pieces together, never catch fire, and end up 8-8? Sure looks like it so far. This is a team that should be 6-2 or better, but they are still hovering around the. .500 mark. Someone needs to ask why.
PREDICTION: Somehow, some way, we expect New Jersey to dip at the end of the year and while they might get a Wild Card, we still don’t see them being good enough often enough to be a major threat. 9-6-1 is almost destined at this point.
MEMPHIS (5-3)
ROSEY: The Showboats are right there with Birmingham and have another chance for a late-season run like the one that got them to the Championship last season. Their defense is one of the league’s best, they have a QB who can sling it, and they have been in a lot of close games that could have gone either way.
GREY: This team lacks a killer instinct. They play close to the vest, rarely explode on offense, and rely too heavily on Reggie White and others on D to make the big play at the right time. That is not a reliable strategy. Yes, they could finish the year on an 8-win streak, or they could go 3-5 and finish at 8-8.
PREDICTION: While maybe not an 8-game winstreak, we do think the Showboats have the talent to win 6 of 8 and finish the year at 11-5, which may just give them the division title.
OAKLAND (5-3)
ROSEY: Do not sleep on these Invaders. Oakland is Top 5 in scoring and scoring D, so they can blow you out of the water when they are on. Yes, they struggled when Gilbert was injured, but he is back now and he is looking like he is ready to be the face of the team. In Ellard and Duper he has great targets, and that D, led by Harvey and Rivera at LB just does not allow a lot of drives to build.
GREY: There is a lot to like in Oakland, but it all hinges on Gilbert being a top flight QB. It’s his 3rd season starting, so maybe he has figured it all out, but he still shows signs that bother the Invader fanbase. With so much riding on his development, there are concerns here.
PREDICTION: We like Oakland to ease into a Wild Card spot, and if Gilbert is truly maturing into his role, they could be a tough out once they get into the playoffs.
TAMPA BAY (5-3)
ROSEY: Steve Spurrier does not rebuild, he reloads. The moves this offseason that brough both Troy Aikman and Keith DeLong to the team were master strokes in player management. Aikman is paying immediate dividends, leading the league in passing yards after 8 weeks, while Tampa continues to win. Fans are ecstatic on Florida’s Gulf Coast. They expected 8-8 as a ceiling and now they are hoping for a trip to Michigan in July to play for a 2nd title.
GREY: There is no doubt that this is not the Tampa Bay Bandits we expected this year. All credit to Spurrier and the front office for filling a glaring need, but this is still a defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league against the pass and in stopping opponents from scoring. They may need to win some shootouts to leap above the better defensive teams in Birmingham and Memphis.
PREDICTION: We love the idea of Tampa Bay returning to the playoffs, and with the Atlantic Division in its usual morass of mediocrity, 3 playoff teams from the South seams very plausible. Let’s say 10-6 and a wildcard game for the reborn Bandits.
HOUSTON (4-4)
ROSEY: The Gamblers could not be playing worse than they already have. Their defense is too good, the bench too deep, the offense is leading the league with 28 points per game already. They will figure out what the issues are and they will be fine. Coach Pardee has taken them to two straight Championships. We trust in him.
GREY: Why is this team 4-4? What happened to the explosiveness? To the soul-crushing defense? This is not the same team. Yes, their pass defense is #1 in the league, but they are still giving up 24 points a game. Jim Kelly leads the league in interceptions. Why is that? Too many questions.
PREDICTION: We cannot imagine a scenario where Houston ends the season below .500. But, with the entire division at or above .500, they could still end up in last place at 8-8. That is a scary thought. We think they are better than this, and could reach 10 wins if they just avoid the letdowns.
NEW ORLEANS (4-4)
ROSEY: It was a rough start, but they have won 2 in a row, and that crushing of Michigan this week looked like the high-octane Breakers we saw last year. They have the #1 rushing offense, and they are Top 10 in most categories on both offense and defense. They are finding their rhythm just in time for a strong second half.
GREY: Giving up 336 yards a game is not a sign of playoff defense. They got by last year because their offense was a juggernaut. This year it is more of a juggler-nut (I have no idea what that is, but it sounds less than stellar.) Unless they can outscore folks, they may be in trouble.
PREDICTION: It is all about getting that offense to kick in on all cylinders. If they can do that, they could go on a run. We are going to predict that they do, and they go 6-2 the second half to finish with 10 wins.
ORLANDO (4-4)
ROSEY: The second best scoring defense in the league means we can keep our opponents down. Rueben Davis is still a beast. Collier and Bledsoe can get hot and help us keep pace with the division.
GREY: Keep pace? We are in 4th place with Tampa, Memphis and Birmingham ahead of us. Just how many teams do you expect to get playoff bids from the same division? The offense is not consistent enough and the schedule moving forward is brutal.
PREDICTION: Orlando has a 4 game run of Michigan, Tampa, Memphis and Birmingham in the 2nd half. They need to go 3-1 in those 4 games to have a chance. That is a tall order. We predict 8-8.
ARIZONA (4-4)
ROSEY: The defense, while not elite, has improved. When Robbie Bosco is back our offense can be explosive, and James Wilder is finally beginning to show some of the talent we were hoping for the last 2 years.
GREY: Is it too little, too late? Is Bosco’s injury really the reason the offense has not caught fire? The Wranglers cannot play Portland every week. Trailing both Denver and Oakland, they need to win 3-4 in a row to build some steam.
PREDICTION: We like a lot of the talent on this Wrangler team, we are just not sure that Coach Tollner has the pieces in place to do what he wants to do with them. We like 8-8 for Arizona.
CHICAGO (4-4)
ROSEY: We are not playing like an expansion team anymore! Chuck Long has not been consistent, but when he has been good, he has looked really good. The combo of Morris and Bentley is finding holes and getting good gains. The defense has had moments as well, and it looks like the division is not settled.
GREY: Chicago can win on any given Sunday, but they still struggle against better teams. With a lot of good squads on the schedule they will need to figure out how to be more consistent.
PREDICTION: This is a tough division to go 10-6 in, especially when your talent level is not where Houston, Michigan or New Orleans are. An 8-8 finish in Chicago would be a huge step in the right direction.
TEXAS (4-4)
ROSEY: The Outlaws can put up points in a hurry. Williams, Mitchell and Carson are a very dangerous trio to face. Texas may not be the best team in the division, but a top 3 finish is very viable.
GREY: The offense does have talent, the defense has several solid players as well, but this is not a team that scares the opposition. The playcalling is too predictable on both sides of the ball, and the Outlaws simply do not execute well enough to outhustle the opposition.
PREDICTION: As with the other 4-4 teams in the Central Division, it is all about winning divisional games to get ahead on tiebreakers. Texas is already in a hole at 1-3 in the division. If they cannot flip that script, even 8-8 will be tough.
BALTIMORE (3-4-1)
ROSEY: The Blitz D is playing very well. Ranked 3rd in scoring D. We have a solid, veteran corps, and we have one of the best football minds at head coach in Marty.
GREY: The defense is bottom half in yards, passing, and rushing D. The offense just lost its leader in Vince Evans for the year. Tim Spencer is just not getting the yards he used to and there is not much more in the backfield to turn to. This looks and feels like a team that was overachieving in the first half, and may now start to slide.
PREDICTION: Baltimore has some issues. Even if Eric Kramer can play at a solid level all year, the defense still needs help and the run game has all but vanished. We think another 3 wins would be a good result for Marty Schottenheimer this year.
PHILADELPHIA (3-5)
ROSEY: This is a team that lost their first 4 games and has now gone 3-1. They have found their stride, and have a lot of veterans who know how to win. This is the most likely 3-5 team to turn it around because they already have.
GREY: That 0-4 start was not a fluke. It happened because the team is getting old, because there are problems with the defense, and because they lack hunger.
PREDICTION: Of all the 3-5 teams, this is the one that other teams fear most. If they can keep up their 3-1 streak over the past month, they could find themselves over .500 by the season’s end despite their horrible start.
WASHINGTON (3-5)
ROSEY: Don Majkowski is proving he is a top flight QB, so the loss of Lomax is not a death blow to the team. They have a Top 5 offense and with Dexter Manley returning on the D-Line, their second half defense could be much improved.
GREY: These are the Federals. Do I really need to say more? They will toy with the idea of being good, but then will self-destruct. It is what they do.
PREDICTION: So much talent to get excited about, but it just does not seem like Sam Rutigliano is getting the most out of them. A lot of folks seem to want Washington to be good, but they themselves don’t seem to believe it. I expect a 4-4 finish and another 7-9 meh season on the books.
PITTSBURGH (3-5)
ROSEY: Yes, we have lost 3 in a row after a 3-2 start, but this team can rebound. Alan Risher is solid. Mike Rozier is a beast, and the defense is not as bad as the numbers seem to indicate.
GREY: Numbers don’t lie. There is not a single defensive stat where the Maulers are in the top half of the league. They will need to outscore folks to win, and they have not proven they can do that.
PREDICTION: We like Pittsburgh’s chances better than Washington’s, but not as much as Philly’s, so let’s put them right in the middle at 4-4.
JACKSONVILLE (3-5)
ROSEY: The defense is coming on, led by Reynosa, the league leader in sacks. The offense just needs to find a rhythm, because they have quality receivers and George Adams can be a star back when he rises to the occasion.
GREY: One man on the D-line does not a defense make. Reynosa has been essentially flying solo this year. Yes, he gets sacks, but he doesn’t impact games. Teams still score on the Bulls, and the Bulls do not seem all that eager to score for themselves. That cannot be a good combo.
PREDICTION: Of the 3-5 teams, the Bulls seem like the one that is lucky to have 3 wins. So, another 3 for the rest of the year, a 6-10 finish, feels right to us.
LOS ANGELES (3-5)
ROSEY: With Young, Martin, Townsell, and Okoye, this offense has to work, right? They cannot keep scoring below 14 points all season. That just doesn’t make any sense.
GREY: What makes sense is that we oversold the LA defense this year. It is mediocre at best, even after Chip Banks returns from injury. And we clearly oversold the LA offense. Young and the crew have been there now for a solid 3 years and it just does not work. They may want to completely retool in the offseason.
PREDICTION: The Express do feel like a team in store for a major roster overhaul. They don’t at all feel like the Championship squad that we predicted in our preseason preview. Our mistake, I guess.
PORTLAND (0-8)
ROSEY: The rainy season is almost done, and the football season will end along with it.
GREY: Name it. The defense is record-setting bad. The offense just does not have enough to compensate. Kerwin Bell has been pulled, Ed Luther is now their best option. That says all you need to know. Expect Jack Patera to walk away or be shown the way out this offseason, along with the entire scouting department.
PREDICTION: Will they get a win? Against anyone? Their best shot, maybe their only shot, is if Denver clinches the division and a bye and opts to rest their starters for the Week 16 matchup in Portland. This is a team that could legitimately go 0-16 unless they can pull off a big upset somewhere along the line.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
We see New Jersey, Philly, Birmingham, Memphis and Tampa getting in from the East. Michigan, Houston, New Orleans, Denver and Oakland from the West. With our original Championship Game prediction shot down, we are going to revise and say it will be Birmingham vs. Michigan for the title.
AWARD WINNERS
MVP: A much closer race than most years. Trudeau is in the driver’s seat right now, but look out for Joe Cribbs or Walker if either club catches fire.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: This one is easy, it’s Aikman all day, every day.
COACH OF THE YEAR: Can we give this to Jim Stanley, a 2-time league champion? Or to Spurrier? Those two seem the most likely candidates. That said, if Carl Reese can win a title with Birmingham after the tragic loss of Coach Dotsch, we are voting for him.
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