That is the question as both Tampa Bay and St. Louis, having clinched the top spot in their conferences, both lost this week. They both had tough matchups, but both were favored to win. The good news is that these losses have no impact on their playoff situation, but neither club wants to lose momentum as the postseason approaches. That is to be sure.
One week after edging the Oakland Invaders in a record-setting shootout, the Tampa Bay Bandits found themselves in another pinball game against another high-scoring squad, the Birmingham Stallions. This week the Bandits fell just short as Birmingham got an epic performance from their multiple All-USFL QB, Brett Favre. Favre threw for 412 yards and a whopping 6 TDs to send Tampa Bay to defeat for only the 2nd time all year. Despite the loss, Troy Aikman made headlines against Favre, at least in the record books, scoring 5 more times to surpass the league record that Favre had set in 1993. Now becoming the first USFL QB to ever throw for 50 TDs Aikman was almost as flawless as Favre, throwing for 356 and 5 scores in the game.
Among the receiving stars we had Cedric Tillman and Marcus Robinson for Birmingham, the former gaining 109 and scoring a TD, while Robinson, who is usually the 3rd receiver, came out on top with 4 catches for 114 yards and 3 touchdowns against Tampa’s nickel corner. For Tampa Bay no receiver went over 100 yards, but a stunning 4 had over 50 yards and both Robert Brooks and Jeff Query both scored twice as Birmingham kept using double coverage on Randy Moss to control the dangerous rookie. Moss would finish with a very atypical line of 2 receptions for only 28 yards.
That small defensive adjustment, along with Favre’s whopper of a game, was the difference as the Stallions upended the Bandits and preserved their slim playoff hopes at 6-8. And once again it came down to the end, with Tampa Bay taking the lead on a Brooks TD catch with just over 8 minutes left in the game, only to watch as Favre guided the Stallions down the field and into the endzone, with the winning score being Robinson’s third of the day. The Stallion TD left Tampa Bay with 1:34 left and down by only 3. Everyone in Legion Field could feel the tension as that certainly seemed enough time for Tampa Bay to get into field goal range, if not to score a TD as they had all day. But, fate and carelessness played a part as on their final drive Tampa Bay got called for a false start, clearly affected by the rowdy Birmngham crowd. With 1st and 15, Aikman missed on a ball to Query, and on 2nd and 15, another big blow as the left guard got called for a hold on Birmingham DT George Little, leading to a 2nd and 25. Aikman tried to get a big chunk of it back on 2nd down, and when the ball glanced off the hands of Brooks, it was picked off by CB Chris Dishman, ending the threat of a Bandit comeback and securing the win for the home team.
BAL 15 PIT 23
The Pittsburgh Maulers helped shake things up in the Atlantic, costing Baltimore first place and helping their own cause as they got the win at home. Neither Robbie Bosco or Wally Richardson looked solid on the day as the defenses dominated. But, while both clubs had two fumbles each, both of the Baltimore fumbles were recovered by the Maulers while Baltimore could not grab either of Pittsburgh’s miscues.
NJ 24 PHI 29
The Stars move into first place with a timely win over their rivals at Veterans Stadium. Troy Brown and Charlie Garner both scored in the second half to help Philadelphia upend a very game Generals squad. After tying the game at 17 early in the 3rd, Philadelphia scored the next 12 points to take a 29-17 lead and then held on late against the Generals’ rally.
OHI 13 WSH 33
The Federals kept their hopes of a repeat title alive, moving to 8-6 with a home win against the Glory. 3 sacks and a pick against Kerry Collins helped keep Ohio down, while Barry Word rushed for 62 yards and wideout Herman Moore caught 6 balls for 99 yards and a key early score to help Washington move to within 1 game of first place in this very tight division.
ORL 27 JAX 9
The Renegades also moved to 8-6 with a solid win against a pretty lackadaisical Jacksonville squad. Scott Zolak had a solid game with 285 passing and 2 scores, and once again Jacksonville loaded up on the pass, giving Natrone Means only 8 carries on the day, prompting some to wonder if he is simply not 100%.
MEM 26 ATL 21
Memphis officially ended any hopes Atlanta had of a playoff opportunity, despite Tiki Barber’s 125 yard, 2 TD day. Down 21-13 at the half, Memphis held Atlanta scoreless in the 2nd half and got two late TD’s one on an Otis Smith pick-six of Jeff George, to take home the win.
ARZ 47 NOR 5
After going up 5-0 in the first quarter the wheels fell off the bus for the Breakers as mistakes and turnovers turned the game into a route which moved Arizona to 7-7 on the year. Four turnovers, including 3 picks of Jamie Martin, gave Arizona short fields all day, and they took advantage of them, with Rocket Ismael catching 2 Plummer TDs and DE Al Noga getting the trifecta, a sack, fumble, scoop & score all on one plays as Arizona just crushed the Breakers.
DEN 26 STL 21
Tampa was not the only #1 seed to fall this weekend as Denver went into St. Louis and upset the Knights thanks to a 20-0 first half punctuated by two Rashaan Salaam touchdown runs. Down by 20 is not a good spot for the Knights and Denver keyed on their passing game the rest of the way. While St. Louis clawed their way back to respectability, a late Brunell to Odessa Turner bomb on play action broke their hearts and helped Denver hold on to win a huge game for them.
LA 20 TEX 38
Texas remains in playoff contention after getting a home win against the 1-13 Express. Reggie Cobb ran for 86 and a score while Kelly Stouffer tossed 4 TD passes in a game that was not as close as the final score might indicate. LA got 10 points in garbage time to make it look respectable, but it really was not.
OAK 30 CHI 34
What the what? Yes you are reading that right. Apparently the offensive fireworks last week against Tampa Bay left the Invader defense lagging this week and Chicago took advantage at home to score only their third win of the season. Rickey Watters was the main man for Chicago as he was both the leading rusher with 98 yards on 14 carries and the leading receiver with 6 receptions for 69 yards. Oakland had a shot to win, but their simply gassed defense could not hold a late 30-27 lead as Chicago got a TD from Van Pelt to Duce Staley with 44 seconds left to play to steal the win.
POR 42 HOU 35
This week's other big shootout was in Houston, where the Gamblers were hoping to move to 8-6 and be secure in playoff contention, but Portland is also scrapping for a playoff spot and they got a late Musgrave to Johnson TD to edge the Gamblers in Houston. Chuck Hartlieb tossed 4 scores on the day, but that late score gave Musgrave his 5th in his best game as a pro to date. Maybe Portland is not in the QB market afterall?
SEA 13 MGN 42
In what is a lost season for Coach Holtz and the Panthers, maybe this win over a pretty solid Seattle club will help with the hurt. Doug Flutie threw for an even 300 yards and 5 scores as the Panthers pulled away early. Two picks and another 2 fumbles helped turn the tide early against the Dragons, for whom earlier thoughts of a playoff run must now be fading.
RECORD SMASHER
We have to start this week with Troy Aikman’s absolutely sensational year. The Bandits’ QB has already set a new league record with 51 touchdowns in only 14 weeks. He has a legitimate shot at reaching 60 TD passes, a once unthinkable number. He is also on pace to possibly reach another unthinkable height, 6,000 yards passing in a 16 game season. His QB rating of 133.2 is also a league record if it holds up. We fully expect him to have records in all 3 areas by the year’s end, even with the loss of Randy Moss to a precautionary benching. Of course we don’t expect Troy to see much action in Week 16, and backup Kerwin Bell may even get into action next week. Tampa has run away with the conference’s #1 seed, so expect them to take their foot off the throttle these next two weeks. Even so, it is still possible that Aikman’s shot at unthinkable numbers may push Coach Seifert to keep him in just a bit longer than is needed from a standings standpoint.
PHOTO FINISH
If you are looking for a good statistical battle, the place to look is the race for the 1998 league rushing title. There are 4 backs who are within 21 yards of each other, and any one of them could push for the title over the final 2 weeks of the year. Currently leading the pack by only 10 yards is Denver’s Rashaan Salaam, with 1,062 yards. Salaam is likely to get a ton of carries as Denver hopes to clinch the division title and a bye, and if the Gold can win the division and get a bye, then Coach Jauron is unlikely to rest his starters in Week 16, not wanting a 2-week gap in action to create rust.
In second position, but only 3 yards ahead of Tiki Barber in 3rd, we find Barry Word. The Federals need to focus on getting that playoff spot locked up, so they won’t overplay their hand with Word, but his usual workload may just be enough for him to make a run at the title, especially if circumstances would cause Salaam and Drummond to be rested in Week 16.
Barber is an interesting case. The Atlanta Fire have slipped considerably from their quick start and now are well outside of playoff contention. For Coach Lewis, having Barber take the title could be a way to build some positive feelings in Atlanta. Lewis’ job does not appear to be in doubt, but having Barber touted as the league’s best back could help a lot, so expect a big dose of Tiki in the final two weeks.
In 4th position, but well within range, only 21 yards behind Salaam, is the Comeback Player of the Year, Robert Drummond, who has shaken off the months of recovery from an ACL injury and had an outstanding second half of the season. Portland is right there in the playoff hunt, so we expect Drummond to get his fair share of carries, and we know he is capable of snagging the title, as he has done twice in a row.
IT’S ABOUT THE D
If you want to understand why the Atlantic Division is the most competitive in the league, and why teams hate playing the Beasts from the East, all you have to do is look at the rankings for scoring defense. Other than 1st place St. Louis, whose defense is the reason they are sitting pretty at 12-2, the remaining members of the Top 5 in scoring defense are all found in the Atlantic. Washington, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh are all monster defenses, and even New Jersey is not far behind at 8th. Makes you feel bad for the Ohio Glory, who are 19th, and who just cannot catch a break in their divisional games. While the headlines may be the potent offenses like Tampa Bay, Oakland, or Birmingham, defense is leading to success, and as we saw last year with the Federals’ title, it can lead to championships too.
A big week for clinching out West while the East tightens up even more. The results of the week allowed 3 Pacific Division teams lay claim to playoff berths, though the division title is still in the air. Denver (10-4), Portland (9-5) and Oakland (9-5) are all in, though the Invaders cannot be happy about a 2-game losing streak. Houston, Texas, and Arizona have two weeks to battle for position in hopes of a Wild Card as both are stuck at 7-7.
In the East, Tampa remains the only club with a ticket to the postseason. The Blitz’s loss means they drop below Philadelphia, though both are tied at 9-5. Pittsburgh, Washington and Orlando all sit at 8-6, while New Jersey is still viable at 7-7 in a very bunched-up conference.
And a reminder that the league expanded the playoff field to 12 clubs, 6 in each conference, adding one more playoff spot, but limiting bye weeks only to the 4 division winners. That means there is more room at the bottom for that 5th and 6th spot, but it means division battles are even more important with the #3 seed no longer getting a bye. That puts huge pressure on Denver, Philly and Baltimore to hold on, while it gives hope to Pittsburgh, Washington, Oakland and Portland that they could still be in the hunt for the precious bye week.
You hate to see injuries at the end of a season because it can not only impact playoff races, but it is just a horrible way to end a year, often an already frustrating year for many players. For some it means a lost opportunity to reach a contract goal, for others it shuts down their opportunity to impress folks ahead of free agency. And for playoff squads it can severely impair their odds. So, this week’s pretty extensive injury list is bad news all around. Among the playoff contenders we have two noteworthy injuris, the first pretty serious as Texas SS Mike Minter suffered a back injury which has since been diagnosed as a spinal cord contusion. The good news is that a full recovery is very likely, the bad news is that his season is done with the Outlaws still very much in the hunt.
In Denver the concern is TE Keith Jackson, a key piece of the Gold’s offensive scheme. Jackson had his ankle rolled up under him this week and will almost certainly miss the season’s final weeks, but if Denver can get a bye by winning the Pacific Division, he may be able to return in time for their first playoff game. WR Randy Moss may have seen his last regular season action as a pinched nerve on his right side will likely lead Coach Seifert to bench him for the final 2 games of the year, a move which may have happened anyway in Week 16, but now Moss’s bid for Rookie of the Year will have to see what happens with Ryan Leaf, his chief competitor, over the final 2 weeks, with no ability to make a final statement.
Among non-playoff teams we have some more injuries that simply add to the bad years for their clubs. This includes Ricky Proehl, whose move from Houston to Chicago has been inauspicious, is now out fir a second time this year after suffering a dislocated knee. A similar injury has ended Jacksonville center Mark Stepnoski’s year, while in Michigan the solid year put in by Muhsin Muhammad is also over after he suffered a fracture in his tibia this week. Seattle lost its big resigning in DT Gilbert Brown, whose issues with his left foot have forced the club to end his season early.
Week 15 could be the week to decide the final clubs to make the playoff field, even as positioning for Wild Card home games and bye weeks continues into Week 16. So, which games look like deciding games? Well, let’s start out West, where the Denver-Oakland game will go a long way to determining if the Invaders can regain a hold on 1st or if the title will be locked up by the Gold and their impressive win streak. Portland has a say in this as well, but they also have a tough game on hand as they host the Arizona Wranglers, who are still hoping a Wild Card is in their future. The other Pacific game seems to be a non-factor with Seattle at 6-8 hosting 1-13 Los Angeles.
The Central Division does not have the same drama as they host divisional games. St. Louis has run away with the division, and while Michigan would love to pull the upset at St. Louis, even a win this week leaves them on the outside looking in at the playoffs. The more important game is likely Texas hosting Houston in their twice-annual Texas Tussle. The winner moves to 8-7 and puts themselves in prime position for a Wild Card. Chicago is also in division, playing against 4-10 New Orleans, with a shot to equal their 4-win record with a win, but is that what the Machine need? Falling back further in the draft?
The Atlantic and Southern square off one last time in the Eastern Conference, And that provides some opportunities for the Atlantic clubs as some get good matchups against the weaker Southern clubs, while others may have their hands full. Washington has to feel good about hosting 3-11 Jacksonville. A win moves them to 9-6 and solidly in the playoff field. Philadelphia likewise has a favorable matchup with the Atlanta Fire in town. They need a win and a Blitz loss to jump into a tie for first. Baltimore is hosting Memphis, a bit tougher of an opponent, and they need the win to retain first place. New Jersey has perhaps the toughest clash ahead of them, with Orlando, who is also deep in the playoff hunt at 8-7. New Jersey has the home field advantage, but Orlando has been hot lately and could prove dangerous. The week’s final game is not much of a showdown, with Tampa Bay headed to Ohio.