2022 USFL Season Preview: Part 2
- USFL LIVES
- 2 hours ago
- 50 min read
We have examined a very active and very engaging offseason, so what lies ahead? What will the 2022 USFL season, the league’s 40th, bring? Will Tampa Bay pull off an unprecedented “Threepeat’ (TM Pat Riley)? Will Seattle return to the Summer Bowl after a strong 2021 campaign? Will a new team rise up and claim a title? And how will your favorite team fare? We are hear to break it all down, starting with a look at the 5 new head coaches in the USFL and the tasks before them, then a breakdown of all 30 teams and their chances, followed by a very-different look at predictions for the year, and finally, a preview of Week One, just a few days away. The 2022 Season is about to start, and it starts right here.
New Coaches, New Systems, New Hope
Five new coaches across the USFL, five teams hoping for good things and, in nearly every case, a major shift of direction. While Ted Cotrell takes over a team very much in the playoff hunt, the remaining 4 new team leaders are in reclamation mode, hoping to turn losses into victories and disappointment into excitement. But what does each face? What is the challenge for each coach as they embark on their first season with their new team? Here are our thoughts on the challenges and opportunities faced by each of this year’s new class of USFL head coaches.
Ted Cotrell (Gamblers)
Pretty easy to see that Ted Cotrell has a different mission than the other four new coaches across the league. The former DC in Houston was hand-picked by Wade Phillips to take over the team when Phillips opted to retire. His challenge is not to rebuild a struggling franchise, but to follow a legend. Cotrell inherits a team that has made the playoffs 8 consecutive years, including a 3-year streak of Summer Bowl appearances and a league title in 2018. He has the reigning league MVP at quarterback and an absolutely stacked offense. Yes, the defense, Cotrell’s specialty, needs some improvement, but few coaches are given a team with as much talent and possibility as Cotrell has been handed. The fear, of course, is that Cotrell is not Wade Phillips, and even if he is successful this year, fans will see it as a lingering effect of the team Phillips put together. The pressure is to remain at a very high standard, perhaps even to get back to the Summer Bowl once again, and not to allow the Gambler dynasty to fade away.
Brian Daboll (Monarchs)
On the opposite side of the coaching goals spectrum we find Brian Daboll, who inherits a team that was 0-15 before a final week upset helped them avoid a winless season in 2021. The good news is that Daboll was able to work with Monarch leadership to upgrade at the most important position on the roster, QB. Signing disgruntled Showboat QB Paxton Lynch gives Charlotte a much better starting point than the 2021 club had, but this is a team that still has a lot of issues to address. The 2021 Monarchs lost by an average of 11 points per game, with a porous defense and a very inconsistent offense. They go into 2022 with one of the weakest receiving corps in the league, a questionable run game, and major questions in the LB group, and the secondary. This will be a long season for Charlotte in a division that hosts both clubs from last year’s Eastern Conference Title Game, but the goal here is to find improvement, stay competitive, and assess where a 2nd offseason for Daboll can upgrade the roster.
Anthony Becht (Thunder)
With back-to-back 3-13 seasons, the San Diego Thunder are another club trying to reinvent itself and build a new culture. We are still trying to complete the autopsy after a 12-4 club in 2019 crashed to 3-13 in 2020. Coach Becht, a stand out player with the New Jersey Generals back in his playing days is something of an unknown commodity as a coach, but what we do know is that he will be a coach that believes in developing talent and building a culture of self-belief. He will need to do that quickly as this is a Thunder team that cannot enter 2022 with a lot of confidence. They lost their best defensive player, LB Myles Jack, to free agency, their 2021 starting QB, Christian Ponder, not to another USFL team, or an NFL club, but to the CFL, which tells you how he was regarded, and were unable to upgrade at the receiver position. So, what are the bright spots for Coach Becht? He has a solid offensive line, so there is hope for the run game led by Charles Sims, and that his QB will have a chance to prove himself. He has decent safeties and some youth on defense. Beyond that, Becht knows that he will need to outcoach some of his colleagues to get beyond the 3-win total of the past two years in San Diego.
Mike Vrabel (Bulls)
The favorite son returns home to Jacksonville as former All-USFL linebacker Mike Vrabel takes on the challenge of bringing the Bulls to a place they have never been, the USFL title. That is the stated goal, and it will be a tough one, especially in the Southeast Division. But, when you look at what Vrabel has to work with, you have to believe that he has a good base. Jacksonville invested heavily in providing their young QB, Trevor Lawrence, with weapons, drafting Georgia HB James Cook, bringing receiver Christian Cook over from the NFL, and adding TE Eric Ebron as a security blanket. They could have a dynamic and young HB tandem of Cook and 2021 rookie Chubba Hubbard in the backfield and could very well be an offense on the rise. The D will have to be Vrabel’s focus point, but the tenacious linebacker certainly knows what it takes to build a defensive mindset. We think Vrabel will find some success in 2022, perhaps even pull off some significant upsets, but give him 2-3 years, and he has a shot at turning the Bulls into a solid contender, a rare sight in Duval County.
Jim Harbaugh (Stags)
Portland feels like they got the man who can finally get things going in the right direction in the Rose City. Harbaugh had some very good years in Philadelphia, is highly respected by both players and his fellow coaches, and brings a disciplined approach to building a team’s culture. In Portland he will have some challenges and some decisions, not the least of which is assessing if Marcus Mariota has the potential to be more than what we have seen in past years. He needs his QB to stay healthy (which has been a challenge) and to make good decisions. He needs his run game to support the QB, and he needs his defense to make life a lot tougher for opposing teams than they have in recent years. To that end, he needs rookie DE Kayvon Thibodeaux to be the player we saw at Oregon, something his unit-mate Dion Jordan was unable to do. He also needs leadership from players like LB Kiko Alonso, CB Taron Johnson, and FS Rudy Ford. Portland is in what we would call a weak division, though Seattle certainly is a major obstacle, so the chance is there for some first year successes, but the main task this year is to change the mindset of the Stags and to create a culture of toughness and smart football.
Team Previews for 2022
Here we go, USFL football is only days away and everyone wants to know where their team stands. We have broken down each roster, looked at each team’s strengths and weaknesses, and we are ready to give you our expert analysis of what each club’s prospects are. It is a time of hope around the league, with all 30 clubs at 0-0. So, are your hopes for a Summer Bowl justified or fantasy? Take a look and see where we see your team heading this season.
Head Coach: Jim Tomsula
2021 Record:10-6, 2nd in Southwest
New Arrival to Watch: QB Ryan Nassib. As much as we wanted to say it was Budda Baker, we all know that the success or failure of the 2022 season is riding on which version of Nassib we get, the outstanding 2019 season as a stand-in for David Carr or the very problematic outings in 2020 and 2021 seasons with Washington. Nassib needs to rebound or the Wranglers could be in for a long year.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Despite the loss of Victor Cruz to the Generals in Free Agency, the receiver group remains an obvious strength for the Wranglers. Led by veteran DeMarcus Robinson, young riser Brandon Aiyuk and with the acquisition of former Breaker slot man Tyler Lockett, the Wranglers are set for speed, while both Robert Tonyan and Maxx Williams are solid targets on the inside.
The concern for Arizona has to be the O-Line, particularly the inside, where center Robert Vega and guard Corey Levin are both seen as shaky options and where depth is a real concern. Brandon Scherff and Mitchell Van Dyck are solid at the tackle spots, but if Arizona is going to both protect Ryan Nassib and get an inside run game at all, they will need Levin and Vega in particular to outperform expectations.
Outlook: There is no doubt that this is a new era for the Wranglers, with David Carr retired and a lot of transition across the roster. They still have a solid core, but are putting a lot of faith in Ryan Nassib’s ability to rebound from some rough years in D.C. The defense, led by CB Joe Haden, DE Bud DuPree, and SS Budda Baker, has some question marks but should be solid enough to keep Arizona in games. The question is if Nassib can guide their offense as well as he did 3 years ago. We see Arizona as a contender in the division, but not the prohibitive favorite they were for almost a decade.
Head Coach: Jaime Elizondo
2021 Record: 8-8, 3rd in Southeast
New Arrival to Watch: Rookie LB Quay Walker. The rookie will slot in next to Luke Kuechley and across from veteran Alec Ogletree in a Fire LB group that needs to come through if the Fire are going to return to postseason form.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Despite fans wanting Atlanta to be a Bandit-like offensive juggernaut, the best position group on the squad is the secondary. With the dynamic safety duo of Earl Thomas and Chuck Clark delivering big hits and corners Darius Slay, Shaquile Griffin and nickel Desmond King among the best 1-2-3 groups in the league, this will be a tough team to pass against, and that can win you a lot of games in the USFL.
The weakness for Atlanta is at linebacker. While MLB Luke Kuechley is a perennial All-USFL candidate, the rest of the 3-man group is a bit dubious, with rookie Quay Walker stepping in on the right side and Alec Ogletree slowing down on the left side. Depth is also a question, though we do like Zavier Gooden as a swing backer. This could be an issue for the run defense, but also come into play against teams with solid TE play and a good slot receiver.
Outlook: After a 13-3 season in 2020, Atlanta struggled to 8-8 last year. We think they have the potential to rebound and put together a strong year, especially if Aaron Murray can stay healthy. The addition of Josh Rosen and Nathan Peterman gives them more options if Murray does get hurt again, but the real key is for them to get Nick Chubb back to his 2020 form, where he topped 1,200 yards. Expect them to compete in the Southeast.
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell
2021 Record: 9-7, 3rd in Northeast
New Arrival to Watch: Rookie WR Christian Watson. The rookie will get his chances, and his role is to draw coverage away from Michael Pittman so that the Blitz can diversify their passing game, but it will be a big jump from the not-so-bright lights of Fargo to the glare of the USFL summer sun.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Jake Locker was one of the best-protected QBs in the league last season and we think that his O-Line, which returns all 5 starters, remains the strength of the club. Starting with Riley Reiff at LT and through McGovern, Matt Tenant, and Dan Feeney in the middle, ending with Ryan Ramczyk on the right side, this is a dominant group, which means Locker stays in the pocket and Josh Jacobs has a shot at a rushing title.
And that run game had better be strong, because when we look at the Blitz receivers we are worried. 3rd year receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is the only proven commodity in the group, with rookie Christian Watson earning the 2nd spot in camp but bringing a lot of questions with him. Tutu Atwell needs to be much more consistent in the slot, and depth is a big issue, with underachievers Allen Hurns and Eli Rogers not filling us with a lot of confidence if something happens to Pittman. Don’t be shocked if the 3-man TE group all end up being major targets for Locker. Uzomah, NFL import Mike Gesecki, and rookie Isaiah Likely could be his best bet for finding open receivers.
Outlook: Baltimore battled to a 9-7 finish last year, just missing the playoffs. It is their 3rd consecutive 9-7 season under Caldwell. In a division that could be competitive from top to bottom, 9-7 may just win the division title, but the Blitz have to be more than just a “ground & pound” team to get it done in a division that has solid defenses and good run games all around. We think they could be destined for a middle of the pack finish, but it is a pack that could go 1,000 different ways this year.
Head Coach: Todd Haley
2021 Record: 11-5, Southern Division Champion
New Arrival to Watch: SS Baccari Rambo. The Stallion offense is definitely a threat, but where Birmingham has faltered in recent years has been the defense, particularly the secondary. They brought Rambo back after 3 years away and the hope is that he is ready to lead an uprising in the disrespected Stallion secondary.
Best & Worst Position Groups: The Stallions have focused on their O-line over the past 3 seasons and now have one of the most consistent and reliable groups in the league. Led by guards Alex Cappa and Ben Grubbs, we might well have a group now that can finally give Cam Newton a run game to balance the offense. The addition of Isaiah Pead will also help as he can handle the grunt work that Najee Harris struggled with last year.
On the downside, the D-line remains a concern. Veteran Dante Fowler is not the sack man he was back in Houston and Boogie Basham at RE steps in at RE after showing very little in his rookie campaign. Inside, Corey Liuget can get overrun at times, which means teams can use the ground game against Birmingham, shorten the game and keep Newton off the field.
Outlook: The Stallions were one of 2021’s revelation teams, improving from 3-13 to 11-5 in just one year. Can they sustain that in a division that is seeing improvement from top to bottom? That could be tough. They still have questions on defense, and they need that run game to finally come through, but with the possible exception of Houston, they may well be the deepest team in the division.
Head Coach: Brian Daboll (New in 2022)
2021 Record: 1-15, 5th in Southeast
New Arrival to Watch: QB Paxton Lynch. After several years of poor decision making by Mitch Trubisky and a failed 2021 experiment with Jimmy Garoppolo, the hopes of the Monarchs ride with Paxton Lynch, who was brilliant in Memphis in 2020 but took a step back last year. If he can rise to 2020 levels again, he will be a hero in Charlotte.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Coach Daboll saw a lot of needs in Charlotte when he arrived after their 1-15 debacle of a season, but D-line was not among them. Anchored inside by Leki Fotu and Poona Ford, the Monarchs can control the line of scrimmage and find ways to free up Chandler Jones to rush the passer. That may allow them to drop 7 in to coverage, which will certainly help a pass defense that struggled last year.
The offense has question marks everywhere, but nowhere more than at receiver, where they have had a major overhaul but where no clear cut superstar is to be found. Rookie Drake London will start, as will veteran Austin Proehl, with Tandon Doss in the slot, but it is hard to see how that 1-2-3 grouping stacks up well compared with many others, unless of course London is more than even the most optimistic scouts saw.
Outlook: You don’t recover from a 1-15 season quickly. That kind of collapse takes years to rebuild from, and while the arrival of Paxton Lynch is a good start, Charlotte still looks like a team that will need both time and good decision making for several years before they are ready to challenge in a division that has several teams who are well ahead of them in the process.
Head Coach: Lovie Smith
2021 Record: 11-5, Central Division Champion
New Arrival to Watch: WR Odell Beckham Jr. The Machine have been close for a few years now and with a huge signing like OBJ, the pressure will be on more than ever for Chicago to get over the hump. The pressure is also on Beckham himself, to prove the hype is warranted.
Best & Worst Position Groups: The Machine love their secondary and we agree with them. The move of Jordan Poyer from corner to safety led to All-USFL recognition in his first season at the new slot, and he now pairs with Xavier Woods to set up a devastating safety tandem. Ad din Josh Norman and underappreciated Jason Verritt at the corner spots and you have a very good final line of defense on this Machine squad.
If Chicago finishes with an 800-yard rusher on the roster, we will be surprised. Marion Mack and rookie Rachaad White will likely share carries, with Tony Jones seeing some action on third down, but we are struggling to see any of the three breaking out and becoming a legitimate threat. That is going to put a lot of pressure on Sam Bradford to be more than a game manager. With OBJ added to Chase Claypool, he has two good targets, but he has never been a 4,000-yard guy and this year he may have to be.
Outlook: The Machine won the Central last year, but it was not easy, with Ohio, Pittsburgh, and Michigan all in the mix. We think it will be a very similar season in 2022, with all 4 teams potentially keeping each other from breaking away. Chicago will be there, and just like the other three, they are a flawed team but a good one overall, so this could again come down to the final weeks before we know where the Machine stand.
Head Coach: Kliff Kingsbury
2021 Record: 8-8, 3rd in Southwest
New Arrival to Watch: LB Myles Jack was brought in (and paired with NFL sack specialist Za’Darius Smith) for the express purpose of making life tough for the very good QBs in the Southwest Division. Dallas needs to put more pressure on Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Matt McGloin, and yes, even Ryan Nassib if they want to take the next step.
Best & Worst Position Groups: It seems like a lot of teams are leaning on their secondaries, and Dallas certainly could make that their persona as well. Jamal Adams and Dezmen Southward inside and Patrick Peterson with Germain Kelly and Ja’Sir Taylor outside are a solid group, perhaps not as impactful against the run as some other secondaries, but certainly strong in pass coverage.
Dallas signed one of the top free agents available in the pool this year, coming to a deal with OLB Myles Jack, but what has us worried is that Jack looks like the only truly dangerous player in their linebacker group. Now, admittedly, we may be undervaluing NFL import Za’Darius Smith, but we have seen so many NFL imports struggle in their first year of USFL play, exhausted from the prior NFL season, that we just don’t think Dallas should expect him to be at his best this year. Melvin Ingram is an odd fit at MLB, and Samson Ebukam has shown some issues with play recognition, so this LB group has us a bit worried.
Outlook: Dallas dropped back to 8-8 and missed the playoffs after a solid 2020 season saw them finally make the postseason. In a very tough division that has solid contenders in Arizona and Denver, we think Dallas could be in the mix, but we don’t see them as the favorites. They will need more from the run game, more from Justin Herbert, and more from their front 7 to overtake the Gold and Wranglers.
Head Coach: John Hufnagel
2021 Record: 12-4, Southwest Division Champion
New Arrival to Watch: Rookie OT Evan Neal. The Alabama product has been charged with protecting Josh Allen’s blind side, and if you don’t think that is a huge task, you don’t understand just how essential Allen’s health and productivity are to this team.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Denver is almost the polar opposite of Dallas, with strong linebackers and a questionable secondary. The Denver LBs don’t get enough press, but the combo of Shaq Thompson and Justin Houston outside with Patrick Onwuasor inside form one of the most consistent and disciplined 4-3 groups in the league. All three can also be effective in blitzes and in coverage.
Where Denver often breaks down is in pass coverage, especially on plays where standout rookie DE Odafe Oweh does not break free. Artie Burns and Bryce Hall are not dissuading QBs from throwing in their direction and FS Camryn Bynum is far too often late to identify where the play is going. He and Nick Cross at SS need to be more instinctive and more intuitive if they are going to keep teams from going deep on Denver.
Outlook: We focused above on the defense, but we all know the key to the Gold is the play of Josh Allen. Having 2 rookies on the O-line this year likely means that Allen may have to use his legs even more, and he could struggle to replicate 2021’s numbers. That reality has us predicting Denver to drop back a bit, still in the division title mix, but not likely to rack up 12 wins again, not unless rookie Evan Neal proves to be a revelation at left tackle as a rookie.
Head Coach: Ted Cotrell (New in 2022)
2021 Record: 10-6, 2nd in Southern
New Arrival to Watch: FB C. J. Ham. Houston did not do a lot this offseason, no huge signings, a pretty quiet draft, so Ham, who is charged with opening holes for Carlos Hyde, is the one new player on a pretty static roster.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Every DC in the league has nightmares about the Gambler receivers. If you overplay Mike Evans, then JuJu Smith-Schuster burns you. Defend the outside and TE Gerald Everett burns you up the middle, and you even have issues with slot receivers Denzel Mims and Keke Coutee. It is a no-win situation unless you can get to Colt McCoy quickly, because this receiver group is just too good to hold down.
The good news for DCs is that their OCs can help them by shortening games against the Gamblers with the run game. Houston’s LB group is a big reason why. Ramik Wilson is very solid in the middle, but you can run outside on Kamalei Correa and Jelani Jenkins. The outside run, helped by weak DE’s as well, means that teams can avoid Wilson and DTs Nick Fairley and Ed Oliver, pick up chunks on sweeps, tosses, pitch outs, and screens, and keep McCoy and those receivers off the field.
Outlook: Houston is not a team that is going to win many 13-10 battles. They will beat you, but it will be 38-35. That may seem a real issue, but the reality is that few teams can keep up with the Gambler offense, so if they can at least get mid-range defensive production, they can rack up wins, and we think they will.
Head Coach: Mike Vrabel
2021 Record: 5-11, 4th in Southeast
New Arrival to Watch: So hard to choose. Is it rookie HB James Cook? WR Christian Kirk, or TE Eric Ebron? How about someone less obvious? How about SS Tavon Wilson, who comes over from Chicago and immediately gets the starting role in a defense that needs more bang for its buck.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Let’s start with the obvious, the Bulls’ secondary is shaky, and that is us being kind. Rookie Kaiir Elam will start as a nickel, but could jump up the depth chart if either Keenan Lewis or A. J. Terrell prove to be inconsistent once again. Add in two pretty low-impact safeties in Tavon Wilson and C.J. Gardner-Johnson and we think Jacksonville will struggle against some very good Southeast Division passers (Prescott, Wilson, Murray, and new Monarch Paxton Lynch).
Where the Bulls can excel is on offense. Built in the model of instate rival Tampa Bay, the Bulls have focused on giving 2nd year QB Trevor Lawrence a deep pool of weapons, from the 1-2 punch of rookie James Cook and HB Chubba Hubbard to a revamped WR group led by Tee Higgins, veteran Mike Williams and NFL import Christian Kirk, the Bulls also added TE Eric Ebron to give Lawrence more than enough weapons to play Jacksonville’s version of Bandit Ball. Do we call it Bull Ball? Maybe not.
Outlook: The Bulls feel very much like a team that will win on offense and lose on defense. They are all in on the offensive side, which could give them some nice wins, but we also think they will drop some games, particularly shoot outs, because their defense will give up big plays. Do they pull out more than they let slip away? That is where the mystery lies for their 2022 season.
Head Coach: Greg Landry
2021 Record: 5-11, 4th in Southwest
New Arrival to Watch: OT Gabe Carimi, last seen in a Panther uniform, comes to the Vipers, where protection for both McGloin and Minshew was a major issue last year. If he can lock down the left side, the Viper offense could take a big step in the right direction.
Best & Worst Position Groups: The Vipers are building an offense around their O-line, which certainly worked for Kareem Hunt last year, and could be a good move this year as well. Gabe Carimi stepped up as the LT last year and should anchor a very solid squad that can run block about as well as any in the league. Now, can they also provide QB Matt McGloin with the time he needs to find receivers beyond 10 yards downfield? That is the question.
Where Las Vegas struggles is with that deep game. It is not Aaron Dobson’s forte. The regular 100-reception flanker is great at getting you that 3rd and 7 conversion but is not going to break many for 40 yards. Second year man Rashod Bateman needs to take on that role, while slot specialist John Ross has to do better in his 2nd year after coming over from the NFL. Without the threat of the big play, the Vipers are just too easy to defend.
Outlook: Coach Landry was brought in to help Las Vegas develop a more balanced, more diverse, and more dangerous offensive gameplan. We are not sure he has the weapons he needs to truly put together an unstoppable offense, but he has enough to at least keep the Vipers engaged in games and perhaps pull off a few more close wins.
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis
2021 Record: 7-8-1, 3rd in Pacific
New Arrival to Watch: QB Nick Foles, brought in to challenge Kyler Murray, can succeed without even taking the field. If his presence helps bring out the competitive side of Murray, we could see nice improvement in the Express QB. If not, then Foles may get his chance to win the starting job.
Best & Worst Position Groups: We spent far too much time trying to decide if it was the D-Line, the Linebackers, or the Secondary that made LA’s defense so tough. We decided it was all three. When you have corners like Stephon Gilmore and Jamar Taylor on the back end, it is easier for Nick Bosa and Chris Jones to get to the QB. And if you try to run to slow down the pass rush, you have to contend with LBs Keith Rivers and Uchena Nwosu. There is just no easy answer for beating this D.
What makes it easier for teams to beat LA is that they just don’t need to score a lot of points to do it, and the main reason for that is the QB position. Coach Lewis is sticking with Kyler Murray despite the fact that the fanbase has been calling for his departure for 2 years now. Yes, the Express signed Nick Foles, so they have a backup, but can you really picture teams shaking with fear because Nick Foles has entered the game? We did not think so.
Outlook: LA fell from 11-5 in 2020 to 7-8-1 in 2021 because they just don’t score enough points. We are not seeing enough improvement here to see them suddenly rebounding, not unless they can keep teams to under 10 points per game every week, which seems far too much to ask of even a very good defense.
Head Coach: Rex Ryan
2021 Record: 6-10, 3rd in Southern
New Arrival to Watch: Another team that was expected to do more but came up with few moves that will matter. Perhaps the biggest addition was backup QB B. J. Daniels, but if we see a lot of him this year that may mean things have actually gotten worse for Coach Ryan’s club.
Best & Worst Position Groups: The hit comedy “The Good Place” spent a good amount of time making fun of Blake Bortles. It now feels very likely that fans in Memphis may be engaging in a lot of self-flagellating humor about their new starting QB as well. Lynch bolted after being benched last year, and did not leave with a lot of positive things to say about Coach Ryan as a QB mentor. Now Bortles steps in, having not shown much in his starts last year, and Memphis fans had better be ready for some real eye-rolling if past history is any indication of how Bortles may fare in 2022.
Where Memphis has hope is at the TE position, where Dallas Goedert has developed into a premier inside receiver, and where Luke Stocker and Cameron Brate are also solid dual use ends. Now, if you are saying to yourself “if TE is your best position, you are in trouble”, we hear you.
Outlook: Memphis needed to engage in some soul searching after a drop from 13-3 to 6-10 last year, but from the looks of it they did not do the work. They were one of the least successful teams in the offseason, with no major additions or impact signings. That feels like a team that is headed the wrong way and a coach who may just not have answers. Coach Ryan needs to prove us wrong, or he could be on the hot seat early.
Head Coach: Sean McDermott
2021 Record: 10-6, 2nd in Central
New Arrival to Watch: Rookie DE Aidan Hutchinson. Since choosing the Panthers over the Lions, “Hutch” has been treated like royalty in Detroit, but now he has to show that his game from Ann Arbor can translate to big results at Ford Field.
Best & Worst Position Groups: The Panthers run game has been a 1-man show, and when that man is LeVeon Bell, you don’t complain, but now it feels like they have a real RB group, which will allow them to keep Bell fresh longer and still dominate on the ground. Alexander Mattison is a solid backup, one who deserves more carries, while Ito Smith comes over from the NFL after showing some flashes as a power back. Expect him to get some 3rd down and goalline snaps.
The fact that we are going to call the Panther D-line their weak spot either means that we are shockingly wrong or that the Panthers are a very deep, very solid team so even their weak spot is pretty darn good. It is less a concern about the ends, because Dee Ford is certainly solid and rookie Aiden Hutchinson is already a superstar in the state of Michigan and could be a ROTY candidate. Our issue is that Dontari Poe is now 33 and is the only truly respected DT on the roster. Teams are not going to double-team Poe, which means that Hutchinson and Ford will get a lot of double teams, making it tougher for Michigan to get to the QB with a 3 or 4 man rush.
Outlook: After back-to-back 14-2 win seasons, Michigan dropped to 10-6 and entered the playoffs as a 1-and-done Wild Card team. We think they have the talent to rebound and get back to a division title and a possible Summer Bowl run. A lot will depend on that D-line’s ability to play the run, to put pressure on QB’s and to get teams off the field. If they can do that, the Panthers can dominate time of possession and win a lot of games without asking Kirk Cousins to be a hero, because he tends to crack a bit when that is what is required.
Head Coach: John Fox
2021 Record: 6-10, 4th in Northeast
New Arrival to Watch: The obvious answer is rookie HB Breece Hall, but we think the bigger move was actually signing center Mike Pouncey. New England needs their line to live up to the reputation of each individual member and then some. If Pouncey can help this group become a single force, we could see both Hall and beleaguered QB Ryan Tannehill have good years.
Best & Worst Position Groups: We were surprised and impressed as we looked over the roster John Fox has put together in New England. We could argue that the O-line is the best squad on the team, but that undervalues the receiver group, and the defense is solid at all three levels. Do we say D-line is the strength because of Aaron Donald, or the LB group with Jamie Collins and Junior Galette? What about a secondary led by Deion Bush at FS and CB Jalen Mills? This is a solid squad as well. So, we are going to say the O-line just because it is so vital to the team’s success, but this roster is no longer looking like an expansion team.
So where is the weakness? Well, you probably guessed. Quarterback. Ryan Tannehill got the vote of confidence when the Steamrollers traded away Jameis Winston, but we just don’t share Coach Fox’s confidence in Tannehill. With only C. J. Beathard and late-round rookie Brock Purdy behind him, we are seeing a major issue here, and if you don’t have a QB, can you really compete?
Outlook: We think the Steamrollers will surprise some folks, maybe earn a few more wins than many expect, but we just don’t think they make the leap to playoff contention with Tannehill at the helm. Rookie HB Bryce Hall will be an interesting watch, and the D could be solid, but is that enough?
Head Coach: Robert Saleh
2021 Record: 9-7, 2nd in Northeast
New Arrival to Watch: WR Victor Cruz may only be on a 1-year deal, but when you replace someone like OBJ there is an expectation not just for big plays or nice stats, but for results. That may be a lot to ask as New Jersey clearly is engaged in a bit of a reimagination of just who they are.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Let’s be frank. We are worried that the Generals’ offense could compete with LA for the league’s worst. That is not a slam on QB Teddy Bridgewater, who has played well when he stays healthy, but health is an issue. We just don’t see the weapons to get the job done. The Generals lost WR Odell Beckham Jr., replacing him with former Wrangler Victor Cruz, who is now 35 and not the speed demon he once was. Their running game will be a mish-mosh of styles with former Gunslinger C. J. Procise, Tony Pollard and a pair of rookies (Kyren Williams and Isaiah Pacheco), and the line is a question mark. So, yes, the entire offense is an issue.
So, where is New Jersey’s strength? It’s the back half of the defense, combining LBS Matt Milano, Akeem Ayers and Aldon Smith with All-USFL corner Aqib Talib and SS Lano Hill. Pass rush is still a concern, but the back half of this defense is very solid. Of course, that may not be enough if QBs get time in the pocket and the offense has trouble keeping pace.
Outlook: Coach Saleh went 9-7 in his first year, going 1-1 in the postseason. We cannot help but feel that the sophomore year could produce a sophomore slump. New Jersey has so many question marks, and the Northeast is so balanced, we just don’t think they end the year sitting atop this division, but we could see them sitting at the bottom, and that is not a good feeling to have about a team before play even starts.
Head Coach: Lamar Lathon
2021 Record: 6-10, 4th in Southern
New Arrival to Watch: HB Isaiah Crowell has a real chance to unseat DeMarco Murray and make a name for himself among Breaker fans, many of whom were hoping New Orleans would go after one of the big name rookie backs. Murray seems vulnerable after a week 2021, and Crowell had flashes in Arizona, so keep an eye on him.
Best & Worst Position Groups: It’s the receivers, for New Orleans once again it is the receivers. Yes, the loss of Tyler Lockett will be felt, but you have so many options, including some younger talent in Olamide Zacchaeous and Quintez Cephus, but just look at the Geno Smith’s primary targets and you see why we stress this. Outside it is a brutal 1-2 combo of Jordy Nelson and Justin Jefferson. If you somehow contain both, now you are dealing with the Breaker’s 2 TE formation with Coby Fleener and Dawson Knox eating up turf in the middle. This is a very deep and very talented group of receivers.
Where New Orleans struggles is in run defense. The front 7 in their 4-3 is neither powerful nor particularly speedy, and that means that teams can run inside, outside, and mix it up at will. DE Cameron Jordan and OLB Kwon Alexander are solid pass rushers but often overplay the passrush and are out of position outside. DT Bennie Logan and MLB Tim Williams will make tackles, but also get caught by misdirection. The Breakers can score points, but not if they cannot keep teams from running the ball and controlling the clock.
Outlook: We don’t think the Breakers are as bad as their 6-10 record last year showed, but they may not be as good as their 2019 record of 11-5 either. This very well could be a classic case of 9-7 or 7-9, especially if they cannot find a way to be more effective in getting teams off the field on defense. Too many 3rd and short situations, too few takeaways and an offense that has not matched points to yards.
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak
2021 Record: 8-8, 2nd in Pacific
New Arrival to Watch: WR Michael Floyd was brought in to be the reliable 3rd down guy, allowing Davante Adams to be the big play guy. That is the plan, at least as of right now. But, honestly, the biggest “new” arrival is Davis Mills at QB in his first season as the Week 1 starter.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Are you worried about the Invader QB situation? Join the club. Davis Mills had some moments last year, but nothing that made us want to anoint him as the next David Carr or Kerry Collins. With only fellow 2021 rookie Sam Ehlinger and forever 3rd stringer Kellen Moore behind him, Oakland may be looking at the shakiest QB situation in the league. Not something Invader Army wants to hear.
As for the best unit on the team, no one will be shocked when we say it is their 4-man LB group. Barry Wagner and Ukeme Eligwe inside, Hassan Redick and Shaq Barrett outside, this is a dynamic, athletic, and aggressive group that can dominate against the run, put pressure on the QB and still have solid coverage against backs and tight ends. Depth could be an issue, but the starting 4 may be the best 4-man unit in the league.
Outlook: We see the season coming down to one thing: How often can Oakland score 20 or more points? If they can put up 21, they likely win, if not, well, it gets a lot tougher. The D could give them some short fields or even some points on takeaways, but the Invaders need to engage Christian McCaffrey to take pressure off of Mills if they want to finish over .500.
Head Coach: Jay Gruden
2021 Record: 9-7, 3rd in Central
New Arrival to Watch: Rookie HB Kenneth Walker III is a faster, sleeker, and more fluid version of Isaiah Pead, and much faster to boot. If he can get off to a fast start, we could see a very dynamic Ohio run game, where Walker and QB Justin Fields play off each other and keep defenses on their heels.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Ohio has a dynamic safety duo with the Honey Badger, Tyran Matthieu and Mark Barron (who needs a nickname. The mongoose? The ferret?). But is that enough? The corners are not great (decent, not great), and the rest of the D has question marks, but we don’t question these two safeties.
Perhaps more of a question mark than a definite weakness, we just don’t know what the Ohio run game will be this year. Rookie Kenneth Walker II is already set up as the lead back, with Trey Sermon (a 2021 rookie) and Elijah Mitchell behind him. If Walker proves to be a steal in the draft, then the run game could be solid, but if he struggles, there is not really a Plan B.
Outlook: Ohio qualified for the playoffs at the 11th hour, and their 9-7 run feel like it was about 80% due to QB Justin Fields making plays on his own. That is a shaky formula if you want sustained success. As we said above, if Walker proves to be all upside, then Ohio could be a more serious contender, but if it is all about Fields once again, we think teams will find a way to limit the QB and with him the Glory team as a whole.
Head Coach: Bob Stoops
2021 Record: 6-10, 5th in Southwest
New Arrival to Watch: OT D. J. Fluker came over from Oakland and is now considered a vital part of an Outlaw line that needs to improve both as a run-blocking unit and in protection for the elusive, but a bit antsy Jalen Hurts.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Oklahoma’s offensive line may boast the best 1-2 combo at tackle in the league, with D. J. Fluker on the left side and Austin Corbett on the right. They also have a solid pivot in Scott Quessenberry and solid guard play with Zach Martin and Herman Johnson. That should be good news for HB Eddie Lacy and for young QB Jalen Hurts.
Where Oklahoma is lacking is on the D-line, where DTs Re’Shede Heggeman and Vincent Taylor and ends Ronnie Perkins and Jordan Willis not only get beaten up regularly on game days but every day in practice as well. They just are not scaring anyone, which means teams run the ball inside, have nice pockets for their QBs and tend to put far too many points on the board.
Outlook: As much as we want to see Jalen Hurts grow into a quality USFL QB, we don’t think the team is growing with him. The defense looks like it could have real issues this year (the line is bad, the LB and DB groups are not much better) and Coach Stoops has not turned Hurts’s success into consistent scoring, not consistent enough. We are putting Coach Stoops on the Hot Seat right now because we are worried that Oklahoma is just not doing enough around their young QB.
Head Coach: Ron Rivera
2021 Record: 11-5, 2nd in Southeast
New Arrival to Watch: You want us to say that it is Tarik Cohen, the HB brought over from the NFL, but we think the better answer is FB Patrick Ricard. He won’t touch the ball often, but just watch what he does for both Cohen and starter Chris Carson. We think you will be impressed.
Best & Worst Position Groups: While both fans and pundits alike seem to be united in their critique of Russell Wilson and his 25 interceptions last season, the unspoken truth may well be that the issue is not Wilson’s decision making, but the inability of his receivers to give him open looks. Orlando’s receiver group is a concern. Brashad Perriman has speed but seems to be a 1-route receiver. If it is not a fly pattern he struggles to separate. Nelson Agholor, brought over from LA, can do more, but lacks the speed needed to turn a hitch into a long gainer. Slot man Braxton Berrios cannot seem to get more than 5 yards down the field, and the Hunter Renfrew experiment just did not work, which is why he is now solidly a backup. If not for TE David Njoku, Wilson simply would not have any options on many drop backs. That has to be a concern as Orlando heads into another season with Wilson at the helm.
On the upside, we have to just be impressed with how Orlando seems to find edge rushing gem after gem. First it was Chris Doleman, then Calais Campbell, and now, the man who removed Campbell from the top of the Sack leaderboard for the first time in over a decade, Montez Sweat. Paired with solid and dependable Chase Winovich and a pretty good but undervalued nose tackle in Ego Ferguson, the Renegades have a front 3 that can play the run but really excels in troubling QBs. Throw in some blitzes from the LB group and Orlando will be a challenge for even solid offensive lines.
Outlook: The Renegades surprised many by making it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals last year. They won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year, but if they can just cut down on the turnovers and get a bit more from their run game, they could again challenge Tampa Bay in the division. Chris Carson barely missed out on 1,000 yards last season, his first after coming over from the NFL. History shows us that almost all NFL imports do better their second season, after finally getting a true offseason to rest. If that is the case, we could see Carson hit 1,000 or even 1,200. With another NFL import backing him up (Former Bear Tarik Cohen), Orlando may just have the balance their offense needs to help Wilson and their shaky receiver group, which means fewer turnovers and fewer nail biters.
Head Coach: Dan Quinn
2021 Record: 10-6, Northeast Division Champion
New Arrival to Watch: The pressure is on DE Robert Quinn, who was solid in Baltimore, but not exceptional. The Stars defense needs more from him if they are again going to battle for a division title.
Best & Worst Position Groups: As much as we want to acknowledge Derrick Henry’s undeniable talent, we have to say that running behind Philly’s line is going to add at least 1 yard per carry to any back’s average. The right side, so vital to most rushing attacks, is where the Stars excel, with Dion Dawkins at RT and Josh Liberious at the Guard spot. Yes, Matt Kalil is an All-USFL left tackle, but when it comes to running the ball, it is those two on the right who make Henry a force to reckon with, that and his own impressive talents, of course.
Henry has to be successful for the Stars to succeed. Why? Because the receiver group is just not scaring anyone. Randall Cobb is still sitting at 1 on the depth chart, but he just is not a true receiver 1. Second year wideout Elijah Moore likely will get most of the early season snaps opposite Cobb, with K. J. Hamler testing out the slot, which does not feel like a natural position for him. In short, no team has a more obvious need for an early season trade than the Stars and their receiver group.
Outlook: Coach Quinn impressed us with an 8-game improvement in his first campaign (2-14 to 10-6), so, what can he do for an encore? He added some depth in the offseason, possibly found a short-term answer at DE with Robert Quinn, but still has issues in the WR group and in the LB group. So, are there moves to be made or will Quinn roll with a roster that got him those 10 wins last year?
Head Coach: Skip Holtz
2021 Record: 8-8, 4th in Central
New Arrival to Watch: Sure, we are all waiting to see what happens between rookie Kenny Pickett and incumbent Andy Dalton, but in the meantime, don’t sleep on kicker Brandon Aubrey. The rookie will be battling the swirling winds inside Heinz Field, but on a good day, he has the potential to shatter the league’s distance record for a field goal.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Remember how we said it was hard to find a “worst position group” option for Michigan? Well, unfortunately for Mauler Nation, we had an equally hard time finding a “best position group” for Pittsburgh. They have some quality at corner, and we certainly like some individual players elsewhere, but overall the Mauler roster does not look like one that will put them at the top of the division, not unless Coach Holtz can get the sum to be more than the parts.
As for worst groups, we don’t want to harp on what everyone already knows, but we just don’t think having a QB competition actually helps teams, and when the two competitors are a largely untested rookie (Kenny Pickett of Pitt) and a veteran who seems to have lost his mojo (Andy Dalton) you have to be worried. Maybe we are wrong, and Pickett will turn out to be the next Jake Plummer, or maybe Dalton can have a renaissance, but from our perspective the Maulers have a competition that may not produce a winner.
Outlook: Before they went on an epic losing streak last year, the Maulers looked like a contender in the Central. They would finish 8-8, and as we look at them today, we think 8 wins may be very optimistic. We just don’t feel confident that the club has what it needs in nearly every position group to challenge Michigan and Chicago, and probably not Ohio either.
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (New in 2022)
2021 Record: 5-10-1, 4th in Pacific
New Arrival to Watch: DE Kayvon Thibodeaux is beloved in Oregon after a stellar career in Eugene, but so was Dion Jordan, and that has not turned out so well in Portland. The Stags cannot afford another Duck to turn into an ugly duckling.
Best & Worst Position Groups: “Interior Defense” is not really a position group, but it certainly is an area of concern for the Stags. From DTs Milton Williams and Ryan Carrethers to MLB Maurice Redding, and even SS Darrian Thompson, it feels like the spine of the defense is just not what it needs to be. That means runs up the middle, lots of converted 3rd and shorts, lots of completions to the TE and slot receiver, and struggles for the Stag defense to get teams off the field in a timely manner.
So, what do you do if your team cannot control the clock and likely gives up a lot of sustained drives? You do the same, and try to win close, low scoring games. That means using the RB group to maximum efficiency. There is no star in the Stag backfield, but what you have are 4 players who all know their roles and can do them well. Fullback Mac Knapp was All-USFL last year on a 5-win team. That means he is very, very good. Second year back Javonte Williams can slash inside or take the ball outside, but needs to make the first man miss to improve his 3.4 YPC average from 2021. Doug Martin still has some moves at 33, and Jordan Mason can be very effective as a spot player. All in all, the Stags can get yards from their HB-by-committee, and they will need to.
Outlook: Two things need to happen for Portland to escape the basement of the Pacific Division. They need Marcus Mariota to be his best self, and they need rookie DE Kayvon Thibodeaux to be the revelation that many think he can be. If the Stags can get Mariota to eclipse a 100 QB Rating, even if he only throws the ball 300 times, and if Thibodeaux can either rack up 15 sacks or help Dion Jordan do so, then the Stags have a shot. If those two things are not possible, then we don’t think .500 is possible either.
Head Coach: Chuck Long
2021 Record: 6-10, 5th in Southern
New Arrival to Watch: Rookie WR Garrett Wilson will get all the love from Gunslinger fans, but we actually think that HB Raheem Mostert could turn into the MVP of the 2022 season. We have seen how fast he is during his NFL stint, and that kind of speed in the backfield (and on returns) can be a gamechanger.
Best & Worst Position Groups: San Antonio has two groups that should worry them. The first is their pass rush, particularly since none of their 4 starting LBs are great as blitzers. They need Gregory Rousseau to make a huge leap from year one to year two or they could again struggle to put pressure on QBs. And that is a huge issue because the safety combo of Will Harris and Michael Carter Jr. is not a strength, meaning that receivers, with time, will find openings and big plays will happen.
Where San Antonio has improved is at HB, where the Gunslingers have perhaps our favorite 1-2-3 group. Led by former NFL stud Melvin Gordon, and backed by a new import in speedster Raheem Mostert, and a grinder in 2nd year back Rhamondre Stevenson. This is a group that can run over you, run by you, and run around you. They need to do just that so that Joe Flacco can use play action and burn teams deep, something he loves to do, but cannot do if the pocket breaks down.
Outlook: Coach Chuck Long feels like this team is ready to make a move, and in the somewhat uncertain Southern Division, he may have a shot. Much like the Steamrollers, the league’s other expansion club, the Gunslingers finally have a roster that does not look like an expansion team. But is that enough to get past the Breakers, Gamblers, or Stallions?
Head Coach: Anthony Becht
2021 Record: 3-13, 5th in Pacific
New Arrival to Watch: The Thunder signed former Star edge rusher Malik Jackson to revive a moribund pass rush. If he can get consistent pressure, then Coach Becht can blitz less, keep more men in coverage, and make life tougher for opposing offenses.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Hackenberg, Rudolph, Keenum. Do those names intimidate you? No? Well, that seems very reasonable. They don’t intimidate us either. The Thunder are hoping that one of the three proves us wrong, but we are not seeing it. We fully expect that once again any team that can slow down Charles Sims can have a real shot of beating this Thunder team.
The reason Sims was successful in 2021, and why we think he can be again in 2022 is the line. Again, no big names, but 5 solid performers in tackles Jack Conklin and Jonah Williams, guards Sean Rhyann and Spencer Long, and center Hroniss Grasu. Depth is good too, especially at guard. So, Sims will get some seams, and whoever is under center should get decent time. It is just a matter of making good use of it.
Outlook: Two consecutive 3-13 seasons is bad. Unheralded Head Coach Anthony Becht is under strict orders not to let it become 3. Even a 4 or 5 win season would be a very good start for Becht, the former USFL tight end. Unfortunately, we think that even that modest goal may be a tough one.
Head Coach: Mike Riley
2021 Record: 13-3, Pacific Division & Western Conference Champion
New Arrival to Watch: Devin Funchess exploded on the scene in his sophomore 2020 campaign, but he suffered a setback last year as Memphis’s offense faltered. If he can rebound in 2022, then Seattle becomes the odds-on favorite to return to the Summer Bowl out of the West.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Seattle’s offense surprised a lot of folks last year, and now, with the addition of Devin Funchess, they could be even better. Funchess joins Amari Cooper, Kendrick Bourne, and Kyle Rudolph in a very crowded and very talented receiver group for QB Brett Hundley. And, if slot receiver Khalil Shakir can do in the regular season what we saw in camp (mastering the “yards after catch” strategy), the Dragons could once again be a serious contender for a Summer Bowl trip.
Our concern for Seattle is the D-Line. Yes, Khalil Mack and Josh Allen are great blitzing LBs, but the more you rely on the blitz the more vulnerable you are to the big play. Seattle needs more from former Federal DE Chris Long, from his opposite on the line, Deshon Hall, and from nose tackle Josh Boyd. They need pressure with only 3 or 4 rushers, not sending 5 or 6. Yes, they have an amazing secondary, so it does not need to be 2-seconds or less, but it cannot be 5 seconds before the QB feels pressure.
Outlook: Seattle was the 1-seed last year and cleared their way to the Summer Bowl. To do that again, they will need to keep the pressure on teams with their offense and play with a lead. That allows them to avoid reliance on pass rush and also gives them the ability to end games by having Knowshon Moreno carry the ball through the 4th quarter. If they can do that, they could find themselves right back in the title game again.
Head Coach: Brian Schottenheimer
2021 Record: 5-11, 5th in Central
New Arrival to Watch: For a 5-win team, we did not get nearly enough urgency out of the Skyhawks. Honestly, we cannot name a single player who came to the squad this offseason who we see as a difference maker. That is a real issue for a team that had a lot of struggles a year ago and may have a lot more this year.
Best & Worst Position Groups: The Skyhawks have one of the best lines in football, anchored by center Rudy Niswanger, with two outstanding tackles in Bryan Bulaga and Tristan Wirfs, and with solid guard play as well. So why do they not have 2,000 yards rushing, and why is their QB always running around the field? Sure, it is Lamar Jackson, so running makes sense, but if he could be a bit more patient, the Skyhawks could actually be dangerous through the air.
St. Louis needs to be successful on offense, because their defense leaves a lot to be desired. Yes, they made some additions this offseason, including new SS Terrell Edmunds and a talented rookie in Micah McFadden, already slated to start at MLB, but is it enough? It needs to be or St. Louis once again will find themselves in the basement of the Central.
Outlook: 2022 may be it for QB Lamar Jackson. Misused, undervalued, and forced to carry the burden of the team for his entire 4-year career, Jackson is in a contract year, and both he and the Skyhawks have a decision to make. Can Coach Schottenheimer finally find a way to turn Jackson’s natural gifts into an effective offense, and can Jackson get the results that will make both him and the club decide to stay linked in 2023 and beyond?
Head Coach: Mark Trestman
2021 Record: 14-2, Southeast Division, Eastern Conference & League Champion
New Arrival to Watch: The twin additions of LB Devin Kennard and DT Sylvester Williams feels like a classic “the rich get richer” situation for the Bandits. But who can blame them for wanting to sign on with a team that just won back-to-back titles.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Yes, we know. It’s the receivers. No doubt that the combo of Dez Bryant, Ryan Grant, Deebo Samuel, and TE Jordan Cameron are the envy of the league. And we should probably include HB Dalvin Cook in there too, since he is certainly a target in the passing game as well. With back-to-back titles, and led by this receiver group, the Bandits again look stacked for another run.
If there is a chink in the armor of the repeat champs, it is the pass rush. Largely covered for by outstanding secondary play, the combo of Brian Burns and Pernell McPhee is just not strong enough on their own to get to the QB. They need help from the LBs or, most devastatingly, from SS Derwin James. Since they play with a lead so often, they can be a bit one-dimensional on defense, but if they cannot pressure QBs, eventually someone will outscore them, and if that happens in the postseason, well then you are done.
Outlook: Vegas has the Bandits as 5-1 favorites to repeat once again, which would be an unprecedented feat in both the USFL and the NFL. So, we know it will be tough. Everyone will give Tampa their best effort, but even with that, we still think this is a tough team to get past. As long as they stay healthy they will be a factor. It’s good to be the king.
Head Coach: Kevin Gilbride
2021 Record: 6-10, 5th in Northeast
New Arrival to Watch: Coach Gilbride is looking at two new DBs in his starting 4, rookie Sauce Gardner, and free agent Dee Milliner, and that sight has him smiling ear to ear. Washington’s secondary will need time to gel, but once they do, this Federals team could start to be a real challenge for visiting offenses.
Best & Worst Position Groups: Coach Gilbride is putting a lot of trust in former Dragon Jacoby Brissett. He sent Ryan Nassib packing back to Arizona, set up Brissett as the clear number one, and does not have much behind him (Jeff Tuel and Will Grier), so if Brissett is not up to the task, well, that is a lost season ready to happen.
What may help Brissett avoid that fate is a receiver group that has speed (Tyreek Hill), hands (Keenan Allen) and quicks (Jarvis Landry). Even backup Kavontae Turpin, who we see more often on returns than in plays, can be a difference maker with his speed and quick cuts. It would be nice if the Feds had a more athletic TE to support Brissett, but with his wideouts, he may well not need to dump down the ball that often.
Outlook: If you asked us to pick a sleeper this year, Washington may well be that team. They play in a very balanced, but also very flawed Northeast Division. They have quality at every level of their defense, from DE Bradley Chubb, through LB Tremaine Edwards, to safety Kenny Navarro, and one of the best offseason pickups, former Renegade corner Dee Milliner, a pure shut-down corner. They also have a young stud at HB in Travis Etienne, and that receiver group. They are a dark horse, but we think they are also a team that is not to be taken lightly.
Our Predictions for the 2022 Season
So, we have looked at the teams, but you may have noticed that we did not give any record predictions. That comes now. Thanks to the folks at EA Sports, we used Keith Jackson USFL 2023 (why are they always a year off?) to simulate the 2022 season 1,000 times. Since we don’ t trust our own instincts, we thought this year we would let the game decide, and here is what it came up with, using combined records over 1,000 simulations to give us the most likely scenarios, at least the most likely virtual ones. So, if we are way off this year, it is not on us, it is all on EA Sports. We start with the Divisional Records and Playoff Teams for 2022.
PHILADELPHIA 11-5 The game had Henry with over 1,600 yards. Could be.
WASHINGTON 9-7 Just missing the playoffs, but the sleeper vibe is there.
BALTIMORE 9-7 Jacobs did well in simulation, Locker did not.
NEW JERSEY 7-9 The offense was scary bad in nearly all 1,000 sims.
NEW ENGLAND 6-10 We are feeling like the game is underselling the Rollers.
TAMPA BAY 14-2* No surprise, the game loves the Bandits’ chances.
ATLANTA 10-6* KJ26 loves the Fire defense and predicts a rebound.
ORLANDO 10-6* Wilson averages 20 picks over the 1,000 sims. Not great.
JACKSONVILLE 7-9 A modest improvement over recent years.
CHARLOTTE 3-13 Hey, it’s better than 1-15.
HOUSTON 12-4* The sim has Houston regaining their mojo.
BIRMINGHAM 10-6* Ten wins is not bad, but not good enough to repeat.
NEW ORLEANS 9-7 A modest rebound after a 5-win flop last year.
SAN ANTONIO 8-8 The sim loves the run game, but not the D.
MEMPHIS 4-12 This is bad news for Rex Ryan if the sim proves accurate.
MICHIGAN 13-3* In 642 sims out of 1,000, the Panthers win the division.
CHICAGO 11-5* Chicago wins the division in 354 of the remaining sims.
OHIO 9-7 Ohio only won the division in the 4 sims out of 1,000.
ST. LOUIS 6-10 Yup, the game has the Skyhawks leapfrog the Maulers
PITTSBURGH 4-12 The Maulers finished as the league’s worst 427 times
DENVER 11-5* The Sim loves Josh Allen, but the D was an issue.
ARIZONA 10-6* The Wranglers are a solid 2nd in most sims.
OKLAHOMA 9-7 A surprisingly strong sim record for the Outlaws.
DALLAS 7-9 In too many sims, the Dallas D was a major issue.
LAS VEGAS 4-12 We think the sims may be dissing Vegas with this record.
SEATTLE 12-4 Just behind the Panthers for the 1 seed this time around.
LOS ANGELES 9-7* The sim loves LA’s D and predicts a good year for Murray.
OAKLAND 8-8 The Invaders finish 2nd in just less than half the sims.
PORTLAND 6-10 KJ23 thinks Mariota is not the answer at QB.
SAN DIEGO 3-13 The sim has San Diego with the Top Pick in the 23 Draft.
PLAYOFF SIMS
More sim results. Here are the USFL teams that Keith Jackson USFL 2023 has making the Playoffs and the Summer Bowl with most regularity in 1,000 attempts
TEAM PLAYOFFS SUMMER BOWL
Tampa Bay 927 433
Michigan 893 387
Seattle 888 385
Houston 801 301
Denver 783 271
Atlanta 707 245
Arizona 701 202
Birmingham 645 181
Orlando 622 164
Philadelphia 551 143
Washington 502 107
Los Angeles 447 89
Ohio 424 88
Baltimore 354 61
Based on this, it looks like we will have the Bandits defending their title for a 2nd time, and likely to face either the Panthers or the Dragons.
Summer Bowl 2022
So, what did the sim think of the Summer Bowl. Well, to no one’s surprise, it thinks Tampa Bay will most likely win the title, coming out on top in 301 of its 433 appearances. Next up is Seattle, who win 201 of 385 appearances, and while the game prefers Michigan to get to the Summer Bowl, it has them losing more often than not, winning 188 of 387 appearances. So, what do we think?
We think the safe bet is the Bandits, with Seattle next. We could well see a repeat matchup, though we also like Michigan quite a bit, and we have a bit of a soft spot for a team to sneak in from the bottom half of the 14 teams listed above. Our favorites for a dark horse are Washington, followed by Orlando and Los Angeles, just because a good defense, especially a good pass rush, can go a long way in the postseason.
Award Winners
While we used the video game (thanks again, EA) for our team picks, we went back to our bullpen to pick the award winners for 2022. We just felt that the game was too dependent on past performance as a measure of future performance and we know that every season produces its own ups, downs, and surprises. So, here is our pick, as humans, for the five major USFL award winners in 2022.
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
Our favorite, to little surprise, is QB Dak Prescott of the Bandits. Give him a full year of action and he can put up huge numbers with those receivers. Behind him, the next best choices were Denver’s Josh Allen, Houston’s Colt McCoy (to repeat), and Michigan HB LeVeon Bell.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Bell was our favorite for the OPOTY, just because we think he once again will put up great numbers and even better highlight footage. Our next two picks were also backs, Baltimore’s Josh Jacobs and Seattle’s Knowshon Moreno. If it is a receiver, it could be Dez Bryant to repeat, but there is so rarely a repeat that we think the better option may be Seattle’s Amari Cooper.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
We went with Arizona DE Bud DuPree. He gave Campbell and Sweat a real run last year, though the award went to Khalil Mack, who we have as the 2nd option. Our dark horse is Chicago safety Jordan Poyer, a bit of a longshot since safeties rarely have the numbers that wow voters, not that he would not deserve consideration.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
We looked at both offense and defense, but in the end, two offensive skill players were the frontrunners, New England halfback Breece Hall, who has everything he needs to be a rookie sensation in Foxboro, and Baltimore WR Christian Watson, who is already penciled in as a prime target for Jake Locker. The two defenders in consideration are Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson and Portland DE Tayvon Thibodeaux, though we should not sleep on Feds’ corner Sauce Gardner as a potential dark horse.
COACH OF THE YEAR
In most seasons we would look at the new head coaches and say that one of them is likely to earn the award, but, other than Ted Cotrell in Houston, we just don’t see much success for any of the teams with rookie coaches, so we are going to go with a team we think can jump from mediocre to good, and that is Washington. So, we go with Kevin Gilbride as our pick, with LA’s Marvin Lewis possibly getting the nod if he can actually get some offense out of his squad.
This is the USFL To Celebrate 40 Greatest Players in League History
Our This is the USFL team wanted to do something to celebrate 40 years of spring football and the players who turned the ragtag upstart spring league into a U.S. sports phenomenon, so we are launching a celebration of USFL greatness during our coverage of the league this year. Each week, starting with our Week 1 coverage, we will count down the Top 40 USFL players of all time. We will start with 3 players per week, from our 40th slot down to 11, then finish the year with our final 10 players in the season’s final 7 weeks, announcing the greatest player in USFL history in Week 15, leaving us Week 16 to celebrate the great coaches around the league, and a very special Week 17 countdown of the 10 greatest teams in the league’s 40-year history.
So, who will make the cut? Which QB will be the best in league history? Which superstar back will lead the pack? Which sack master will top the charts? Which head coach has done the most to make the USFL what it is today? And which team, from 40 years of champions is the best to ever take the field in the spring? You won’t want to miss this countdown, and you almost certainly will want to fight the good fight to defend your favorite player, to lobby for him to be ranked higher. The stars will all be here, but will we put them where you think they deserve to be? That is the fun of it, debating the merits and highlighting the traits that made all 40 players so special. It starts next week with the players our team placed at 38, 39, and 40 in league history. So be back for that after Week 1 concludes.
Opening Week to Feature Throwback Games
Three games in the opening week will offer USFL fans a flashback to the past with all 6 teams donning their throwback uniforms. Opening week will feature the Stallions, wearing gear from the legendary Joe Cribbs, Cliff Stoudt, and Rollie Dotsch years heading to the Big Easy to face the rival Breakers, wearing the beloved gear from the Marcus Dupree, Johnnie Walton years of the mid 1980’s. Another divisional rivalry game will see New Jersey, whose look really has not changed much, reviving the Walker-Flutie era uniforms. Too bad they cannot bring back the huge shoulder and thigh pads from those Herschel Walker years. They will be in Washington where the original look of the Federals’ eagle logo will be donned, along with the bright Kelly green jersey of those early Feds teams. Finally, out in LA, the Express will bring back memories of Steve Young and Mel Gray with the LA monogram back on the helmet and the navy jerseys back on the field. They face Memphis, who will commemorate the late, great Reggie White with their original silver helmets, scarlet jerseys, and old school look. It will be a trip down memory lane, one of many this season as the USFL celebrates 40 years of spring football.
Week one, the season openers. This is exciting stuff. It is all about getting off to a hot start, getting the jitters out of the way, integrating new players, and putting your best foot forward. There. How was that? Enough sports clichés for you? Yeah, it’s a bit corny, but it is true, winning in Week 1 can be a huge boost for a team, losing can confirm team fears, but the reality is that it is a long season and teams that start cold can get hot. We see it almost every year. So, you want the win, but don’t panic if it does not happen.
Fri. @ 7pm ET Baltimore Blitz @ Tampa Bay Bandits NBC
A tough start to the season for the Blitz, drawing the 2-time defending champ and having to do it on the road.
Fri. @ 9pm ET Oakland Invaders @ Seattle Dragons ESPN/EFN
The Dragons start off their defense of the Western Title with a home game in the division as their D will try to fluster Oakland’s new starter, Davis Mills.
Sat @ Noon ET Birmingham Stallions @ New Orleans Breakers ABC
More divisional fun on opening weekend as the Breakers hope to send a message by knocking off the 2021 division champs.
Sat @ Noon ET New Jersey Generals @ Washington Federals FOX
The Feds and Generals both have eyes on a division title, so winning every division game is paramount. Only 1 will walk away from week one with success in that goal.
Sat @ 4pm ET Portland Stags @ Arizona Wranglers ABC
Ryan Nassib returns to Glendale and the Wranglers, while Portland tries to prove it has turned a corner by winning on the road.
Sat @ 4pm ET Denver Gold @ St. Louis Skyhawks FOX
Josh Allen against a pass defense that no one trusts, this one could have all the makings for Allen to earn Week 1 POTW.
Sat @ 7pm ET Ohio Glory @ Jacksonville Bulls NBC
This will be a good test for Trevor Lawrence and his new offensive weapons. Ohio’s D could be tested on the road.
Sat @ 9pm ET Dallas Roughnecks @ Las Vegas Vipers ESPN
Not exactly a premier matchup for ESPN Saturday Night Football, but it could be a good game that is close until the end.
Sun @ Noon ET San Diego Thunder @ Oklahoma Outlaws ABC Regional
Jalen Hurts gets a shot to start off the season with a bang, while the Thunder just hope their team is able to play clean football.
Sun @ Noon ET New England Steamrollers @ Philadelphia Stars ABC Regional
If I am Coach Fox, I am trying to make this a statement team, and that statement would be that the Rollers are not an expansion team anymore.
Sun @ Noon ET Atlanta Fire @ Orlando Renegades FOX
How is this one not a prime time game? These two should be right there in the mix, even if they are both looking up at Tampa Bay in the standings most of the year.
Sun @ 4pm ET Charlotte Monarchs @ Michigan Panthers ABC
Michigan wants the win, Charlotte wants to see progress, improvement over a brutal 2021 season.
Sun @ 4pm ET Memphis Showboats @ Los Angeles Express FOX Regional
Welcome to a starting gig, Blake Bortles, now get ready to see a lot of Nick Bosa and Chris Jones, and not in a fun way.
Sun @ 4pm ET Houston Gamblers @ San Antonio Gunslingers FOX Regional
The Gunslingers have sold out the New Alamodome for this Week One matchup, and why not, an in-state rival and a talented Gambler squad come to town to open the season with a bang.
Sun @ 8pm ET Pittsburgh Maulers @ Chicago Machine EFN
Week One finishes up with a Central Division showdown, one which the Vegas books sees as a possible blowout. Can the Maulers prove them wrong?
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