PART TWO
Time to look into the crystal ball and try to make sense out of all the offseason moves, the coaching changes, draft pick signings, and player acquisitions, and see what we see as the future of the USFL in 2001. You cannot just go by last year, that has been proven out almost every season. In 1999 the LA Express came out of nowhere to win the Pacific, last year Ohio, Seattle, and Philadelphia made huge leaps and became serious playoff contenders. The USFL is a fickle league, with success very fleeting and sudden changes of fortune very common. So, we will do our best to read the tea leaves and see what we see, but, as always, don’t hold us to it.
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Perhaps the most balanced division from top to bottom. Last year it was the Stars jumping from 6th to 1st place, but we could see any of maybe 5 teams having a possible claim. Pittsburgh seems a bit lost, New Jersey is intriguing but will need time to gel, Washington may be on a downward trend, and Ohio seems poised to make a run this year. We are going to shake it up just a bit, but don’t be surprised if Philly repats or Baltimore ascends to the top.
PREDICTED FINISH: 1-OHIO 2-PHILADELPHIA 3-BALTIMORE
4-NEW JERSEY 5-WASHINGTON 6-PITTSBURGH
Three Year Trend: From 7-9 to 8-8 to 10-6 last season, a clear pattern of improvement.
Head Coach: Al Luginbill
Returning Stars: QB Kerry Collins, HB Eddie George, WR Joey Galloway, DT LaRoi Glover, LB Jeff Herod
Departures: HB Darrell Thompson (FA), SS Kyle Kramer (FA), DT Tony Stevens (FA), WR Cedric Tillman (FA), WR Rob Thomas (FA), LB Aubrey Beavers (NFL), C Bob Kronenberg (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: HB Lamont Warren (FA), T Pete Kendall (FA), G Cooper Carlisle (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: The Glory added two potential immediate starters in DT Marcus Stroud (Georgia) and wideout Chad Johnson (Oregon State). Could Johnson be the player that finally draws some coverage away from Galloway? Other signings of note include guard Marques McFadden (Arizona), OLB DeLawrence Grant (Oregon St), and TE Shawn Draper (Bama)
Outlook: Ohio is a team on the rise, and their offense only got better with the addition of rookie Chad Johnson and added depth on the O-line. Losing Bob Kronenberg is tough, but the Glory have a solid line. The big question is whether or not they can take the next step, particularly on defense.
Predicted Finish: 11-5, Division Champion
Three Year Trend: Ten wins in ’98, a collapse to 5 in 99, and then a rebirth to a division title and 13 wins last year. Was 99 a blip or was 2000 a fluke? We tend to go with the former as the more likely scenario.
Head Coach: Jim Mora Jr.
Returning Stars: QB Bobby Hebert, HB Stephen Davis, WR Bobby Engram, DE Regan Upshaw, DT Seth Payne
Departures: TE Eric Green (FA), DT Leon Lett (NFL), SS Corey Chavous (NFL), WR Kevin Dyson (NFL), CB Deltha O’Neill (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: DT Brandon Whitting (FA), G Joe Patton (FA), DE Bronzell Miller (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: WR Steve Smith (Utah) has impressed in camp. LB Quinton Caver (Arkansas) has struggled a bit and likely will not get immediate starts. TE Tony Stewart (Penn State) has huge shoes to fill for the departed Eric Green. Other potential rostered rookies include OT Mathias Nkwenti (Temple) and SS Marlon McCree (Kentucky).
Comments: Philadelphia was a surprise for many last year, but they have a lot of quality veterans on this team. 2001 could be the last hurrah for Bobby Hebert, and the departure of Eric Green and Kevin Dyson will not help, but rookie Steve Smith looks like a quality addition.
Predicted Finish: 10-6, Wild Card
Head Coach: Lindy Infante
Returning Stars: QB Jeff Garcia, HB Ron Dayne, DT John Randall, SS Bennie Blades, LB Duane Bickett
Departures: TE Keith McKeller (FA), DE Mike Piel (NFL), QB Trent Green (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: C Curtis Wilson (FA), DE Kabir Gabaja-Biamila (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: S Adam Archuleta (ASU) looks like an immediate plug-n-play guy, possibly starting at FS or alternating with Blades at SS. He could line up alongside another good-looking rookie, CB Ken Lucas (Ole Miss). HBs Travis Minor (FSU) and Marcel Shipp (UMass) should both make the squad but may not get many touches until they pick up pass protection.
Comments: Baltimore made the switch to Jeff Garcia at QB, and he did quite well for them. They were largely non-participants in Fre Agency, but got a potential star in DE KGB in trade for Trent Green. Add in a very good looking rookie in safety Adam Archuleta and the Blitz look ready to challenge again.
Predicted Finish: 10-6, Wild Card
Three Year Trend: From 7 wins in ’98 to 6 in ’99 and only 3 last year. That trend cost Marty Schottenheimer his job. Bill Parcells comes in and hopes his major shakeup produces a quick turnaround.
Head Coach: Bill Parcells
Returning Stars: HB Curtis Enis, WR Terry Glenn, WR Wayne Chrebet, DE Phil Hansen, LB Bobby Houston
Departures: HB Lamont Warren (FA), SS Eric McMillan (NFL), G Corbin Lacina (NFL), LB Lorenzo Styles (NFL), LB Kevin Greene (RET), QB Jeff Lewis (Trade), QB Eric Zeier (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: QB Troy Aikman (FA), CB Darrien Gordon (FA), CB Kenny Gales (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: LB Kendrell Bell (Georgia) is likely the only immediate starter from the 2000 rookie class, though we expect to see tackle Matt Light (Purdue) and guard Chad Ward (Washington) rotate into the lineup for some snaps. Another who could make the 53-man roster is CB Tay Cody (FSU) who seems to have beaten out Carey Scott (KY State) for a spot in the secondary. HB James Jackson will likely start the year on the practice squad.
Comments: No team made a bigger splash this offseason. Bill Parcells was a huge addition, and he will have this team playing mentally tough football. Aikman has had some issues with concussions, so the Generals will need to watch out, but he has some serious weapons around him in Curtis Enis, Terry Glenn, and emerging 2000 rookie Anthony Becht. The defense will also look very new with two free agent corners along with rookie LB Kendrell Bell.
Predicted Finish: 8-8, a big step up from 2000.
Three Year Trend: Solid but not spectacular over 3 years (10 wins, then 8, then 11) seems about right for the Federals, who are in something of a rebuilding phase and have some players who are clearly on the back end of their careers.
Head Coach: Paul Hackett
Returning Stars: QB Kordell Stewart, HB Rueben Droughns, WR Herman Moore, DT Jerome Brown, CB Charles Woodson
Departures: LB Winston Moss (FA), T Pete Kendall (FA), WR Andre Coleman (FA), HB Lamar Smith (FA0, WR Mike Williams (FA), LB Corey Miller (Trade), QB Brock Huard (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: LB Quentin Coryatt (FA), WR Lawyer Tillman (WSH), HB Tim Lester (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: With the emergence of Rueben Droughns last year, it was a bit of a surprise to see Washington invest in a back like Ole Miss’s Deuce McCallister, but they always have loved the 2-back system, so expect Deuce to get a chance to shine. DT Kris Jenkins (Maryland) will rotate in for Jerome Brown as the big man needs more occasional breathers at this point in his career. Expect to see guard Damion Cook (Bethune Cookman) get some snaps, and LB Torrance Marshall (OU) should see action on special teams. We don’t see John Markum (Vandy) beating out Doug Pelfry for the kicking duties.
Comments: The Federals again lost some good defensive talent in Winston Moss and Corey Miller, but the addition of veteran Quentin Coryatt should help. We are not sure who will end up getting carries as Washington added former Arizona thumper Tim Lester as well as rookie Deuce McCallister to a RB group that was expected to be handed over to Rueben Drouhns. There are a lot of questions, and that has us nervous about a team that is usually pretty easy to like.
Predicted Finish: 7-9, needs time to fill in some gaps.
Three Year Trend: From mediocre (8-8 in 1998), to slightly better (10-6 in 1999) to a complete collapse in 2000 (3-13). Pittsburgh is clearly in a rebuilding mode. Is that good enough for Emmitt Thomas to keep his job?
Head Coach: Emmitt Thomas
Returning Stars: QB Charlie Batch, HB Terrell Davis, WR Andre Rison, LB DeMetrius DuBose, LB Godfrey Miles
Departures: FS Jerome Woods (FA), DT Moe Gardner (FA), WR Lonzell Hill (FA), HB Tavian Banks (FA), CB Quintin Jones (RET), T Bernard Williams (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: HB Lamar Smith (FA), DE Mike Mamula (FA), DT Russell Maryland (FA), QB Alex Van Pelt (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: We love the motor on DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (Nebraska) and we think TE Alge Crumpler (UNC) could get the starting gig within the season’s first month, but the biggest surprise in camp has been FS Corey Hall (App State), who could break into the lineup for a Mauler D that needs his energy. Kicker Bill Grammatica (USF) could unseat Ryan Lindell.
Comments: The Maulers had a major collapse in 2000, despite decent play from QB Charlie Batch and the usual greatness from HB Terrell Davis. The defense was the big issue, and we are not sure that the addition of Russell Maryland and Mike Mamula is enough. We do like rookie DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, but the LB corps and the secondary still make us wonder about the Mauler D this year.
Predicted Finish: 5-11, with room for growth.
SOUTHERN DIVISION
Is this finally Orlando’s year to shine? They seemed poised to make a deep playoff run, and they did win the division, but losing Scott Mitchell late in the season doomed them to a quick playoff departure. The Renegades are not a given as Birmingham is always a threat and Memphis is in no way out of the picture. We are still not sure what to say about Jacksonville, who started 2000 very strongly but then wilted in the summer heat. Tampa Bay has a lot of issues to overcome and we are just not ready to say that Atlanta is ready to turn the corner and join their fellow 1995 expansion clubs in the postseason.
PREDICTED FINISH: 1-ORLANDO 2-MEMPHIS 3-BIRMINGHAM
4-JACKSONVILLE 5-TAMPA BAY 6-ATLANTA
Three Year Trend: 2000 felt like a step up, from 2 consecutive 9-win seasons to 11-5 and a division title. Can they take another step this year?
Head Coach: George O’Leary
Returning Stars: QB Scott Mitchell, HB Terry Kirby, WR Keenan McCardell, WR Donald Driver, DE Chris Doleman, CB Deon Figures
Departures: TE Dante Whittaker (CFL), LB Dante Jones (NFL), DT Joel Steed (NFL), HB Moe Williams (NFL)
Veteran Arrivals: TE Ricky Dudley (FA), DT Brandon Whiting (FA)
Rookies to Watch: The Renegades focused on low-sizzle, high-impact positions. Mike Gandy (NDame) should be the week 1 right tackle. Kenny Smith (Bama) will be in the DT mix, and OLB Patrick Chukwarah (Wyoming) could see some action early as well. Others on the 53-man roster include guard Stephen Neal (CSU Bakersfield) and LB Hakim Akbar (Wash)
Comments: We are saying this is Orlando’s chance to step up. Yes, they lost some solid players, but adding Ricky Dudley is an upgrade at TE, and their draft was solid. We see Orlando going as far as QB Scott Mitchell and their defense can take them.
Predicted Finish: 11-5, Top seed in the conference.
Three Year Trend: Two consecutive 12-win seasons after an 8-8 start for coach Jim Mora Sr. We don’t see a big dropoff this year.
Head Coach: Jim Mora Sr.
Returning Stars: QB Heather Shuler, HB Garrison Hearst, WR Joe Horn, TE Adrian Cooper, LB Jim Schwantz
Departures: LB Joe Mott (FA), WR Lawyer Tillman (FA), C Curtis Wilson (FA), DE Mike Mamula (FA), G Cooper Carlisle (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: T Brian Williams (FA), QB Bill Musgrave (FA), FS Joe King (FA), C Bob Kronenburg (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: Center Casey Rabach (Wisc) was a clear need pick, while the two wideouts signed, Justin McCareins (NIU) and Cedric Wilson (Tenn) will add depth. In camp, unheralded UNC LB Brandon Spoon has looked like a contributor, while DE Paul Toviessi (Marshall) has done enough to make the roster.
Comments: Despite losses on both sides of the ball, Memphis’s season still looks like it will be dictated by the play of QB Heath Shuler and the O-line’s ability to block for him. Adding C Bob Kronenburg should help there, and adding two rookie wideouts should provide some options beyond Joe Horn for the Showboats.
Predicted Finish: 10-6 and a Wild Card.
Three Year Trend: Two 8-8 seasons with an 11-5 bump in the middle. We all keep saying that the Stallions are too talented to win 8 games, but they still win 8 games.
Head Coach: Kevin Gilbride steps up to fill the slot that Ron Erhardt’s new GM position opened.
Returning Stars: QB Brett Favre, FB Mike Alstott, WR Lawrence Dawsey, CB Deion Sanders, DE Mike Rucker
Departures: HB Rodney Thomas (OAK) LB Cornelius Bennett (FA), DT Brandon Whiting (FA), G Ed King (FA), WR Ernest Givens (RET)
Veteran Arrivals: LB Joe Mott (FA), DE Renaldo Turnbull (FA), QB Eric Zeier (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: We are not sure Ron Erhardt’s first draft as GM was a strong one. SS Harold Blackmon (NWern) and DT Damione Lewis (Miami) will certainly make the roster, but we don’t see a starter in this draft. Others who could stick are FB Nick Goings (Pitt) if the Stallions keep 5 backs, or DE Cedrick Scott (So Miss). Early pick Bill Ferrario (Wisc) has been something of a disappointment in camp at the guard position and may be relegated to the practice squad.
Comments: We like the signings of Turnbull and Mott to help the defense, but they also lost Cornelius Bennett, the outspoken leader of the defense, so there will be a need for new leaders to step up. The offense will still run through Brett Favre and Lawrence Dawsey, but without Ernest Givens on the squad, who will step up at that split end position?
Predicted Finish: 9-7, Just missing the postseason.
Three Year Trend: Steady improvement from 3 wins to 6, and 8-8 last year. Is this another step along the way to a playoff contender?
Head Coach: Gunther Cunningham
Returning Stars: QB Chris Chandler, HB Sedrick Irvin, WR Terrell Owens, LB Lavar Arrington, DT Sam Adams
Departures: C Bubba Miller (FA), TE Steve Johnson (FA), FS Mark Carrier (FA), WR Patrick Rowe (FA), CB R.W. McQuarters (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: WR Cedric Tillman (FA), TE Eric Green (FA)
Rookies to Watch: The Bulls have three solid players at the top of their draft and a possible darkhorse in what has to be considered another good draft. Expect to see quite a bit of DE Derrick Burgess (Ole Miss) on the field. Center Dominic Raiola (Nebraska) may get the start this week, and OLB Brian Allen (FSU) has looked like a fast learner. The surprise has been the play of 6th round pick, safety Ifeany Ohalete (USC). Finally, we expect UCLA wideout Drew Bennett to make the squad as well as he could be part of the kick return and coverage teams.
Comments: The Bulls looked dynamite for about 1/3 of the season last year and then the wheels sort of fell off, and the worst thing is that there was not a clear reason why. The run game needs to be better, but we don’t see much beyond the addition of an athletic rookie center to address that. Chris Chandler is getting older, less mobile, and more prone to sacks each year, so a run game will be needed to keep him upright.
Predicted Finish: 7-9, but just not quite a playoff team.
Three Year Trend: Trending the wrong way for Coach Seifert. 13 wins and a league title, down to 7-9 in 1999 and only 6-10 last year. Now losing Aikman, things seem headed south.
Head Coach: George Seifert
Returning Stars: HB Errict Rhett, WR Randy Moss, DE Santana Dotson, LB Kevin Mitchell, CB Samari Rolle
Departures: CB Darrien Gordon (FA), QB Troy Aikman (FA), G Chris Thatcher (FA), WR Robert Brooks (NFL), DE Kabir Gabaja-Biamila (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: LB Winston Moss (FA), FS Jerome Woods (FA), SS LeRoy Butler (FA), QB Trent Green (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: Former Wolverine Steve Hutchinson is a no brainer to start for the Bandits. We are not sure what to make of the rest of their rookie class. CB Brock Williams (NDame), ILB Zeke Moreno (USC) and CB Chidi Iwouma (Cal) all should make the roster, but beyond that, we just don’t know if we will see much of them this year.
Comments: It is a rebuilding year, one of several we expect. Trent Green has issues staying healthy and is a placeholder at best at this point. There are still a lot of weapons, including Randy Moss and Errict Rhett on this team, but losing Aikman and then Robert Brooks is not a good thing for Coach Seifert.
Predicted Finish: 5-11 and the search for a franchise QB commences.
Three Year Trend: Six, two, and 4 wins, paired with last place finishes in the division do not seem a trend one wants to continue. Can Coach Petrino get more from them in year 2?
Head Coach: Bobby Petrino
Returning Stars: QB Aaron Brooks, HB Tiki Barber, DT Anthony McFarland, LB Mo Lewis, DE Bruce Smith
Departures: SS Robert Blackmon (FA), WR Hart Lee Dykes (NFL), G Chris Dalman (NFL), HB Glyn Milburn (NFL), P Brian Moorman (NFL), HB Mike Anderson (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: P Chris Hanson (FA), HB Mario Greer (FA), C Bubba Miller (FA)
Rookies to Watch: Signing big DT Casey Hampton (TEX) was a good start, though all fans could talk about was the failure to land Michael Vick. SS Adrian Wilson (NC State) and guard Paul Zukauskas (BC) should also make the 53, while tackle Maurice Williams (Michigan) and CB Jeramatrius Butler (K State) are on the bubble and could start the year on the practice squad.
Comments: The Fire played hard last year for Coach Petrino, and the defense got better, but they still have to decide if either Aaron Brooks or Mark Bulger is really a starting QB in this league. They took their shot at Vick and failed, so now one of those two has to make it happen. We only wish they had been able to add more weapons for either of them. The Fire receiving corps remains seriously underwhelming.
Predicted Finish: 3-13 unless Petrino can light a fire under one of his QBs.
CENTRAL DIVISION
In some ways very unpredictable, as we saw with New Orleans’s rise last year, and yet the St. Louis Knights have been something of a constant at the top of the division. We think this year they will be challenged by New Orleans, but we see Michigan, Chicago, Texas and Houston quite a bit further down the power rankings and we think this could be a 2-horse race.
PREDICTED FINISH: 1-ST. LOUIS 2-NEW ORLEANS 3-CHICAGO
4-MICHIGAN 5-HOUSTON 6-TEXAS
Three Year Trend: Three straight division titles is pretty consistent even if the record has fluctuated (14-2, 10-6, 12-4).
Head Coach: Jim Johnson
Returning Stars: QB Todd Collins, HB Ahman Green, WR Bert Emmanuel, DE Vonnie Holiday, SS Rodney Harrison
Departures: FS Jerome Watkins (FS), HB Karim Abdul-Jabbar (NFL), G Chris Villareal (NFL), DT Jerry Ball (RET)
Veteran Arrivals: TE Keith McKeller (FA), DT James Manley (FA)
Rookies to Watch: DT Shaun Rogers (Texas) is the one sure thing from the draft. We are still scratching over the pick of FS Bhawoh Jue (Penn State) as early as they picked him. TE Jabari Holloway (NDame) is not the big play TE the Knights hoped to find. HB George Layne (TCU) is likely a practice squad player, and kicker Jay Feeley seems destined to be seeking work elsewhere. He is solid, but not going to unseat Longwell.
Comments: The Knights just keep winning the Central Division, but is that enough? Losing DT Jerry Ball to retirement will not help the D, though James Manley is certainly serviceable. The Knights did not draft or sign well, at least not that we can see. Is a step down coming? Possibly, but we are still picking them to win a pretty weak Central Division.
Predicted Finish: 10-6 and just enough to win the division again.
Three Year Trend: From back to back losing seasons (6-10, 7-9) to a legitimate title contender in one year. No wonder Mike Nolan was a serious candidate for Coach of the Year. Can he keep it up?
Head Coach: Mike Nolan
Returning Stars: QB Trent Dilfer, HB Ricky Williams, LB Lamar Lathon, DE Chidi Ahanotu, SS Devin Bush
Departures: LB Robert Hinkley (FA), HB Erric Pegram (FA), LB Gerald Dixon (FA), C Brian Brauninger (FA), FS Darren Woodson (NFL), DE Jerry Reese (RET), CB Thomas Randolph (Trade), T Oliver Ross (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: DT Moe Gardner (FA), TE Steve Johnson (FA), WR Roell Preston (Trade), G Bob Sapp (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: For a team with a solid D, the Breakers sure drafted like they needed help. FS Idrees Bashir (Memphis), ILB Monty Beisel (K State) and OLB Jason Glenn (TAMU) will all make the squad, but will they see the field? A late pick in QB Jesse Palmer (Florida) is a bit of a developmental project.
Comments: The Breakers had one of the most surprising seasons we can remember last year and it was all lead by a true shut down defense. So, of course, they lose some key players this offseason, including DE Jerry Reese, CB Thomas Randolph, and two linebackers. Adding Moe Gardner helps their interior line, but a lot could be asked of some rookies, including two rookie linebackers, and that could mean a step back as they adjust to the pro game.
Predicted Finish: 9-7 and a Wild Card.
Three Year Trend: The Machine are headed the right way, improving from 3 wins in ’98 to 6 and then to 7 last season. It is slow, but they are getting better.
Head Coach: Marty Mornhinweg
Returning Stars: QB Jeff George, HB Duce Staley, DT Sean Gilbert, DE Simeon Rice, LB Brian Urlacher
Departures: CB Alan Grant (FA), T Jeff Wright (FA), HB Mario Bates (FA), CB Clifton Abraham (FA), HB Ricky Watters (NFL), WR Floyd Turner (Trade), QB Alex Van Pelt (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: QB Browning Nagle (FA), CB Jimmy Hitchcock (FA), SS Je’Rod Cherry (FA), DT George Tuttle (Trade), CB R.W. McQuarters (Trade), T Bernard Williams (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: We love the signing of disruptive LB Tommy Polley (FSU), and adding another athletic LB later in the draft with Vandy’s Jamie Winborn is another good signing. In camp, fomer Badger Jamar Fletcher (CB) has turned heads too. But, where is the offensive help?
Comments: Coach Mornhinweg has the club moving in the right direction, but we just are not sure they have enough offense to truly be dangerous. Jeff George has been underwhelming since coming over from Atlanta, and the loss of Ricky Watters to the NFL will be felt. We like the addition of R.W. McQuarters through trade, safety Je’Rod Cherry, and DT George Tuttle, basically helping to provide some defensive depth to the squad. And while LB Tommy Polley is a great addition from the draft, we wonder where the offensive help is coming from.
Predicted Finish: 7-9, and struggling to score points.
Three Year Trend: The Panthers have been hovering around .500 for years (7, 9, 7 wins) and that led to Skip Holtz being let go. Can Mike Martz do better? And will it be Flutie or Brees that gets him there?
Head Coach: Mike Martz
Returning Stars: QB Doug Flutie, WR Muhsin Muhammad, LB Ted Johnson, FS Mike Prior, LB Sam Cowart
Departures: DE Renaldo Turnbull (FA), LB Frank Stams (FA), K Brett Conway (FA), QB Elvis Grbac (FA), G Bob Sapp (Trade), HB Natrone Means (Released)
Veteran Arrivals: CB Alan Grant (FA), HB Siran Stacy (FA), CB Deltha O’Neill (CB), T Oliver Ross (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: The state of Michigan is all abuzz about Drew Brees (Purdue). They like Flutie fine, but it is always exciting to see a top tier QB drafted. Flying a bit under the radar is DE Aaron Schobell (TCU), another good pick. DE Reggie Hayward and LB Jeremiah Pharms will likely be practice squad or deep bench players in what was really a very shallow draft for the Panthers.
Comments: Expect this year to be all about the QB position. While he certainly has his fans, many in Detroit have soured on Doug Flutie and are excited to see Drew Brees on the field. But, here is the thing, the rest of the team has issues too. Siran Stacy has to step into a nasty situation surrounding Natrone Means, the receiving corps did not get any faster, and the team is still trying to audition a kicker. We see trouble ahead.
Predicted Finish: 6-10 and moving on to Brees.
Three Year Trend: After 2 years of mediocrity (7 and 8 wins) the bottom fell out for the Gamblers (4-12) leading to Coach Willsey’s resignation and a clear rebuilding phase for Houston favorite Wade Phillips.
Head Coach: Wade Phillips
Returning Stars: QB Matt Hasselbeck, HB Kevin Faulk, WR Antonio Freeman, DE Kavika Pittman, DE Michael Sinclair
Departures: HB Mario Greer (FA), LB Quentin Coryatt (FA), WR Brett Perriman (NFL), CB Ashley Ambrose (NFL),
Veteran Arrivals: WR Tamarick Vanover (FA), LB Gerald Dixon (FA), CB Vince Buck (FA), QB Brock Huard (Trade), HB Mike Anderson (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: Houston doubled down on their one strength, the D-line, by signing top pick DT Richard Seymour (Georgia). That line will be tough, but what other help was obtained? WR Koren Robinson (NC State) will likely replace Brett Perriman, another good pick. We are not sure if guard Matt Lehr (Va Tech) will make the 53 or not, and CB Jason bell (UCLA) is likely a practice squader.
Comments: Houston was bad last year, like epically bad, particularly on offense, where they simply could not score points. So what did they do to remedy that? They brought in a slot receiver, a backup QB and a halfback who barely saw the field for the Atlanta Fire. Hardly seems enough. We do love their draft, particularly those top two signees, Richard Seymour for the D, and Koren Robinson for the offense, but that does not feel like enough. We still see little hope of a strong run game and we are not sold that Matt Hasselbeck is truly a quality starter.
Predicted Finish: 5-11 and trying to rebuild over time for their new coach.
Three Year Trend: A slow ascension (8 wins to 10) turned into a 5-11 debacle last year. Out goes Jack Pardee, in comes Chan Gailey, but the Outlaws are clearly rebuilding.
Head Coach: Chan Gailey
Returning Stars: HB Reggie Cobb, WR Shawn Collins, DE John Bosa, SS Mike Minter, LB Tedi Bruschi
Departures: WR Darnay Scott (FA), QB Kelly Stouffer (RET), C Mike Arthur (Trade), CB Kenny Gales (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: T Jeff Wright (FA), HB Erric Pegram (FA), LB Stephen Boyd (Trade), QB Jeff Lewis (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: Guard Leonard Davis (Texas) will help protect new QB Jeff Lewis, but he needs more weapons and we don’t think mid-round WR Scotty Anderson (Grambling) is what Lewis was hoping for. HB Kevin Barlow is not exactly LaDainian Tomlinson, but at least he signed. Those three may be the only signees who make the squad in a pretty iffy draft.
Comments: Both Texas clubs are going through major upheavals. The Outlaws will be starting a new QB for the first time in a decade, and they have to feel lucky that Coach Parcells simply did not want to work with Jeff Lewis. Lewis played well for a bad Generals team last year, and now he finds himself on a squad with just as many issues as his former club. Reggie Cobb is not getting any younger, so getting Pegram to spell him periodically is a good idea. We think Texas will try to keep scores low and win ugly, but what we predict is mostly just the ugly part.
Predicted Finish: 4-12 and needing a youth movement.
PACIFIC DIVISION
Denver finally nabbed their first title, but the division will be a tough slog. Both Seattle and LA have improved in some key areas, Arizona also looks like a potential threat in the division. Oakland and Portland will almost certainly bring up the rear. We are going to go with Seattle as the ascendant team, just because the post-title hangover is a very real threat for the Gold.
PREDICTED FINISH: 1-SEATTLE 2-DENVER 3-ARIZONA
4-LOS ANGELES 5-OAKLAND 6-PORTLAND
Three Year Trend: The Dragons took the step, up from 7-9 and 8-8 to 12-4, Seattle seems to have found its way under Coach Tiller.
Head Coach: Joe Tiller.
Returning Stars: QB Brian Griese, HB Corey Dillon, WR David Boston, LB Levon Kirkland, LB Takeo Spikes
Departures: CB Paul Jetton (FA), WR Donald Hayes (FA), G Jesse Sapolo (NFL), LB Stephen Boyd (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: HB Tavian Banks (FA), T Mike Arthur (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: A tough draft to celebrate as none of their early rounders signed on. CB Willie Middlebrooks (Minn) should move into the nickel, and we think guard Russ Hochstein (Nebraska) will be part of the rotation, but when your only sure starter is the new punter, Nick Harris (Cal), maybe you did not get what you wanted from the draft.
Comments: Seattle is another trendy pick to move up a notch, get a division title and possibly a championship. Many are still not sold on Brian Griese as a championship QB, but there are a lot of good pieces in place in the Pacific Northwest. Corey Dillon has become a true All-USFL back, and the receivers are dynamic. Not a lot of changes due to free agency, though the trade of Stephen Boyd left a hole in the LB corps that Seattle has not truly addressed. We like the overall picture and could imagine this team going far.
Predicted Finish: 12-4 and top seed in the West.
Three Year Trend: Denver is the league champion, and with 3 straight 10+ win seasons, they are a model of consistency under coach Jauron.
Head Coach: Dick Jauron
Returning Stars: QB Mark Brunell, HB Rashaan Salaam, WR Dedrick Smith, DE Leslie O'Neill, CB Bruce Pickens, LB Kurt Gouveia
Departures: FS Joe King (FA), DT James Manley (FA), WR Tamarick Vanover (FA), QB Bill Musgrave (FA), T Adam Meadows (NFL), SS Corey Gaines (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: QB Elvis Grbac (FA), FS Mark Carrier (FA), DT Paul Grasmanis (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: When you pick last each round you are not expected to get a lot of solid talent, but we think Denver did pretty well. CB Jamar Fletcher (Wisc) should be a solid option at the nickel, FS Tony Driver (NDame) adds good depth) and WR Robert Ferguson (TAMU) is rangy with good hands. FB Heath Evans (Auburn) was a good late round pick who could help Salaam snag that rushing title he so wants.
Comments: Denver finally got over the hump and won their first title, but with that comes the feeding frenzy in free agency. Losing Joe King, James Mandley and Adam Meadows is not a good thing for the Gold. We like adding Paul Grasmanis in trade, but he is not an answer all by himself. Their draft was solid and we should see several rookies get some playing time, though likely not as starters just yet.
Predicted Finish: 10-6 and still in the mix.
Three Year Trend: We are done calling each year the year Arizona gets over the hump. Jake Plummer had a monster season last year and they still only got 9 wins, after 7 in ’99 and 8 in ’98. We think they will likely get somewhere between 7-9 wins this year as well.
Head Coach: Art Shell
Returning Stars: QB Jake Plummer, HB Dorsey Levins, WR Carl Pickens, LB Broderick Thomas, CB Philippi Sparks
Departures: CB Aeneas Williams (FA), DT Russell Maryland (FA), QB Browning Nagle (FA), LB Barney Bussey (NFL), WR Rocket Ismail (NFL), CB Kevin Minnifield (NFL), HB Tim Lester (Trade), DE Bronzell Miller (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: CB Clifton Abraham (FA), LB Corey Miller (Trade),
Rookies to Watch: We love the signing of Miami’s Santana Moss to this offense, and CB Fred Smoot (Miss State) also looks like a good early pick, but the steal of the draft may well be final round “afterthought” pick Dominic Rhodes from tiny Midwestern State. Rhodes has been impressive in camp, winning himself a spot in the 3-man HB group.
Comments: Arizona has to get worse, right? They lost a few very good pieces to their defense and while they added a couple of decent players, it does not seem a positive in the overall picture. Losing Rocket Ismail will be tough for Plummer, who loves the deep ball, but maybe rookie Santana Moss can help with that. Now, if they could just block better for Dorsey Levins, they might just get a run game beyond Plummer’s crazy scrambles and bootlegs.
Predicted Finish: 8-8 and once again stuck in the middle.
Three Year Trend: After an explosive rise from 2-16 in 1998 to 11-5 in 1999, the Express had a bit of a letdown last year, finishing at 8-8 and just barely making the postseason.
Head Coach: Galen Hall
Returning Stars: QB Cade McNown, HB Antowain Smith, WR Mike Pritchard, DT David Rocker, LB Danta Jones
Departures: CB Vince Buck (FA), TE Rickey Dudley (FA0, T Brian Williams (FA), P Chris Hanson (FA), QB Brent Pease (NFL), WR Bobby Shaw (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: CB Aeneas Williams (FA), LB Cornelius Bennett (FA), P Micah Knorr (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: The Express Draft was deep and talented. They added a dynamic edge rusher in Mizzou’s Justin Smith, a roadgrating tackle in USF’s Kenyatta Jones, and a dual use TE in Arizona’s Brandon Manumaleuma. The choice to draft and sign Georgia’s Quincy Carter at QB seems an odd one, but with Brent Pease departing an athletic backup QB behind McNown may be a good move in the long run. Others likely to make the squad are CB Renaldo Hill (MSU), and punter Steve Cheek (Humboldt State).
Comments: We think LA was better than last season’s record indicated. For this year they bolstered their defense with two very charismatic veterans in Aeneas Williams and Corenelius Bennett. Their draft was considered one of the league’s best, so why do we have them 4th in the division? Well, I think it comes down to not trusting that the offense has enough explosiveness. Their 2 backs are more plodders than explosive big play guys, and their receiving corps needs more options for QB Cade McNown. Losing Ricky Dudley means he now has no security blanket on those tough 3rd down calls.
Predicted Finish: 8-8 but possibly could do much better if the new pieces blend quickly.
Three Year Trend: From 9 wins in 1998 to back-to-back 4-12 seasons. Things have to improve by the bay or it will not be long for Coach Capers, in his 2nd year with a team that has issues.
Head Coach: Dom Capers
Returning Stars: QB Ryan Leaf, HB Troy Davis, WR Plaxico Burress, LB Chris Spielman, DE Eric Currry
Departures: HB Siran Stacy (FA), G Joe Patton (FA), QB Cary Conklin (NFL), DT Tracy Rocker (NFL), WR Roell Preston (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: HB Rodney Thomas (FA), CB Thomas Randolph (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: LB Dan Morgan (Miami) will be a week 1 starter on a defense that needs more aggressiveness. DE Karon Riley (Minn) and WR Alex Bannister (EKU) should make the squad, while QB Marques Tuiasosopo (Wash) will likely end up in the 3rd QB slot behind Leaf and Kitna, giving him time to adjust in case Leaf continues to struggle and ends up walking after his contract ends.
Comments: For a team that seemed to need major infusions of talent this offseason the Invaders played it pretty low key. They lose Stacy but add Rodney Thomas, about a wash if you ask us. They don’t add much more for Ryan Leaf to work with and their line may have actually taken a step back with the loss of guard Joe Patton. Hard to be optimistic about this group, particularly with their QB situation now muddled, with both veteran Jon Kitna and rookie Marques Tuiasosopo breathing down Ryan Leaf’s neck.
Predicted Finish: 4-12 and a desperate need to build an identity.
Three Year Trend: “Oof” is the word you are looking for. From 10 wins to 6 to a miserable 1-15 season. Ray Rhodes got a pass last year, against the wishes of many fans, but he had better figure things out quickly.
Head Coach: Ray Rhodes
Returning Stars: QB Rick Mirer, HB Napoleon Kaufmann, WR Matthew Hatchette, DE Clyde Simmons, LB Mark Simoneau
Departures: SS Je’Rod Cherry (FA), CB Jimmy Hitchcock (FA), HB June Henley (FA), T Herb Webster (NFL), C Jeff Uhlenake (NFL), WR Webster Slaughter (RET), DT George Tuttle (Trade), DT Paul Grasmanis (Trade)
Veteran Arrivals: HB Darrell Thompson (FA), LB Greg Biekert (FA), WR Patrick Rowe (FA), WR Floyd Turner (Trade), SS Corey Gaines (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: Portland did well In signing their picks, and with the issues they had, several rookies could see considerable action this year. CB Will Allen (Syracuse) will start right away as should center Roberto Garza (TAMU-Kingsville) and tackle Kenyatta Walker (Florida) on a revamped O-line. We also like Nebraska HB Correll Buckhalter as a contributor this year. Portland also filled their 3rd QB slot behind Mirer and Akili Smith, with a smart, often underestimated QB in Oregon’s A.J. Feeley.
Comments: The Thunder were bad last year, really really bad. We are not sure that either Akili Smith or Rick Mirer is the answer at QB. And while we like both Greg Biekert and Corey Gaines as defensive additions, the club also lost 2 defensive tackles through trade and we don’t see how they replaced them with players of the same, much less higher, caliber. Coach Ray Rhodes got a 2nd year despite a 1-win season, but he had better do a lot more than we saw last year if he wants a 3rd season.
Predicted Finish: 3-13 and we say goodbye to the coach. We just don’t see more talent than last year.
We have looked at the season as a whole, but we have a slate of games coming up and should take a hard look at the matchups to decide who comes out in Week 1. Here are the 12 opening matchups with the Las Vegas line and our picks.
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS (NBC) 8pm ET
Birmingham @ Denver (-3): A great opening matchup between the defending league champions and one of the league’s most explosive teams. Will the Gold have a title hangover or will they come out rolling?
SATURDAY AFTERNOON (ABC/FOX)
12 pm ET
Baltimore (-2) @ Michigan: A good early test for the Panthers, who are actually home underdogs against the Blitz. Flutie v. Garcia should be a fun showdown of two scrambling QBs.
New Jersey @ Texas (-2): The new-look Generals are still a road underdog, perhaps in part due to the supposed revenge factor of new Texas QB Jeff Lewis going against his former club, who unceremoniously traded him off to go for a big name signing in Troy Aikman.
4pm ET
Jacksonville @ Arizona (-3): We like the Wranglers in this one. Starting the season not knowing what Coach Shell has in store with Jake Plummer is not a comfortable feeling for the Bulls.
Memphis (-9) @ Portland: The biggest spread of the week is not really surprising. Memphis was one game away from the Summer Bowl last year while Portland was 1 game away from a winless season.
SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL (ESPN) 8pm ET
Ohio @ St. Louis (-4): The Knights defense will be a huge opening week test for Kerry Collins, Eddie George, and Joey Galloway, but we can also say that Galloway, George and Collins are also a pretty tough test for the Knights’ D, so this one is tough to pick.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON (ABC/FOX)
12pm ET
Philadelphia (-3) @ Chicago: The casinos like Philly’s chances to win on the road, but Chicago in March can be a tough call. If it is a blustery and cold day that could play in favor of the Machine.
Pittsburgh @ Houston (-1): A practical “toss up” game between two teams who certainly disappointed last year. Does Houston really feel comfortable with Hasselbeck at QB? Is Pittsburgh ready to rebound from a disappointing 2000 season?
4pm ET
Tampa Bay @ Los Angeles (-5): The loss of Aikman has the books leary of the Bandits, but LA was a pretty middle-of-the-road last year after shooting to the top of the standings in 1999. Is Cade Mcnown ready for a rebound year or is Trent Green going to find success in Tampa?
Orlando (-4) @ Oakland: Scott Mitchell is back and the Renegades focused almost exclusively on strengthening the middle of their defense in the offseason so we see this as a tough matchup for the Invaders to open the year with.
Atlanta @ Seattle (-7): A touchdown favorites, we think Seattle wins this one, but we also think Atlanta will play them tough and cover the spread.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL (ESPN) 8pm ET
New Orleans @ Washington (-2): The Feds get the home field nudge on the line, but this one could be a game without a touchdown as both clubs live and die by defense and we expect some pretty harsh weather in the DC area on Sunday.
Ocho cinco to the Glory! Heck yes