In one of the more dramatic final weekends we have seen in a while we had a bit of everything. We had a divisional bloodbath as Chicago made a statement by outdueling the Ohio Glory in a high scoring affair. We also had several teams play their way into the postseason, with Seattle easily dispatching the Oakland Invaders while Birmingham won the week’s one true “Play In Game”. We also saw heartbreak as the Memphis Showboats took care of business by beating the Breakers, but ended up on the outside looking in when all the wrong results put them in a cluster of 7-7 teams that threw all the wrong tiebreakers at them. The luckiest team in this wild week? Has to be the Texas Outlaws.
Despite going down to defeat in Denver, Texas got the opposite result that Memphis experienced. Texas ended up at the #7 spot and not out of the playoffs on a simple tiebreaker with Memphis, strength of schedule. Odd as it seems, It was losses to teams like LA, Denver, New Orleans, Ohio that gave Texas the edge. We also saw drama in the East, though we already knew who the six playoff teams would be. Washington made a statement, locking down the top seed with a win in New Jersey, a win that pushed the Generals from the 4 seed down to the 6. Meanwhile both Pittsburgh and Chicago improved their records and moved up the seedings because of it. And, yes, Michigan lost for the 14th time, unable to contain the Maulers’ attack or muster up one of their own. They now join the 1991 Baltimore Blitz as the only teams to play an entire season without at least one win. But, while that is certainly a story to explore, the focus this week was on the playoff clubs, and on one game in particular that was a highlight of the week, Ohio @ Chicago.
OHIO GLORY 37 CHICAGO MACHINE 40
Ohio had a shot at the top seed in the East with a win and a Federals loss, but Chicago wanted more out of this game. The Machine had come close on three prior occasions, nearly upsetting the Glory twice during their 2002 unbeaten season. They opened up the season playing the Glory in Ohio and lost by 10 in another good game, and it seems they just got tired of losing. In the season’s final week they decided enough was enough and found a way to win against their new arch nemesis.
If there was an indication that this game would be a rough one, it came on the very first drive, when the opening kickoff was downed at the 3 yard line and 2 plays later Kerry Collins was caught in the endzone by DT Brentson Buckner. Chicago had won all year on defense and that defense would be tested in this game, but it would do enough to help the offense pull out the win. These two points got them off to a good start.
After Chicago failed to move the ball following the Ohio kickoff, the Glory got their first true shot at offensive football and they did not disappoint, marching down the field in only 6 plays and getting the first TD of the day, a short fade route to Chad Ochocinco to go up 7-2. But, this would not be a game where the Ohio offense simply ran over their opponent. Chicago would keep pace all game long, and on their next drive the Machine hit the first of several big plays in the game, a 31-yard strike to Curtis Conway to retake the lead.
That lead would bounce back and forth like a tennis ball in a long volley, moving back to Ohio after a second Chad Ochocinco score, then expanded with an Eddie George TD run, before Ohio came right back and scored the next 10. At the half it was 21-19 Ohio, but there was no sense that the game had seen the bulk of its scoring. Everyone at Soldier Field could sense that the tennis match would continue all game.
Ohio scored the lone touchdown of the 3rd quarter, a 90-yard strike to Galloway that ran completely against the generally slow pace of the quarter as a whole. Back up by 9, Ohio was in no way safe as Chicago mounted a long drive that carried into the 4th quarter and ended with Duce Staley diving in from the 1. Staley would have very limited carries on the day due to nagging hamstring issue, but his backup, Charles Rogers, would more than cover for him, rushing for 104 on 23 carries. Now down only 2, Chicago again saw the Glory expand the lead, a 1-yard dink pass from Collins to Shawn Draper put them back up by 9, but Chicago was not through. With 5:37 left to play, Jeff George hit his back, Rogers, with a perfectly set up screen pass and Rogers did the rest, galloping 21 yards to again pull Chicago within 2 at 35-33. After an Ohio drive ended with a coffin corner punt that pinned Chicago inside the 5 with 3:03 left, the pressure was on. That pressure led to a bad call, Chicago’s RT was called for illegal hands to the face when the replay clearly showed that he had hit the shoulder and not the facemask of the rushing defender. That penalty was in the endzone, giving Ohio 2 points with the second safety of the day.
It would be up to the Machine defense to get the ball back. After kicking away, they did just that, stuffing Eddie George on first down, then breaking up passes on both 2nd and 3rd down. They would get the ball back with 2:44 left to play. Jeff George and the Machine had their shot. Down by 4, it would have to be a touchdown. The Machine moved the ball effectively in their no huddle offense, George connecting with both Conway and Donald Driver on the way into Ohio territory. With just 1:12 left to play it looked like Ohio had ended the drive, but a defensive holding call saved what had been an incomplete 4th down pass, giving Chicago new life. They took advantage and 22 seconds later George found Conway for a 2nd TD on the day and the game winner. Chicago had slain the dragon and gotten the collective monkey of the Glory off their backs. The win would not alter much for the playoff rankings, with the Machine staying in the 5th position, but beating Ohio felt like its own form of championship for the Machine.
NSH 17 BIR 24
The Knights would ride their defense to a 17-10 lead after three quarters, but that same defense failed them down the stretch as Brett Favre connected first with James Thrash, and then with Marcus Robinson on two consecutive scoring drives to snatch victory away from the visiting Nashvillians. Favre would finish with 3 touchdowns on the day, and Birmingham would lock up the 5th seed. Nashville fell to 6-8 and for the first time in 6 years the Knights would sit out the playoffs.
NOR 10 MEM 33
Memphis went into the game with New Orleans with backup Bill Musgrave under center, but with a determination to fight for a playoff spot. New Orleans had their starters intact, but also had a playoff spot well in hand, so the motivation was certainly not at it’s most intense. The difference in urgency showed up quickly as an early Breaker field goal was followed by 27 unanswered Memphis points. The Showboats would rack up 440 yards against the lackluster Breakers, but in the end it was to no avail as they came out on the short end of a tiebreaker with Texas and would sit at home next week.
TEX 28 DEN 33
That Memphis is out despite winning is made worse by the fact that Texas gets in despite losing their season finale in Denver. It was a close fight, and Denver trailed 28-26 late, but Mark Brunell stayed calm and found TE Marco Battaglia for a late game score change and a Gold win. That could have been it for the Outlaw’s playoff hopes, but the breaks went their way, with several other clubs failing to meet their goals. Texas would back their way in despite the Week 14 loss, landing as the #6 seed in the West.
WSH 25 NJ 21
Not knowing that Ohio would later lose to the Machine, Washington took business into their own hands, limiting Tom Brady to only 189 yards passing and racking up 184 yards rushing against the General defense to take the win and lock up the #1 seed in the East. Deuce McCallister was the star, rushing the ball for 144 yards, though it was Stewart’s 3 TD passes that would seal the deal for Washington.
SEA 31 OAK 17
Oakland actually led after 1 quarter thanks to a pick six and a 42-yard Rashaan Salaam run, but the fun did not last as Seattle exploited the Invader defense to win pulling away. Corey Dillon would outgain Salaam 127 to 60 and add 2 TDs as well, while both Corey Bradford and J.J. Stokes would each go over 100 yards as Seattle locked up a playoff spot for only the 2nd time in team history.
POR 13 LA 54
The Express left no doubt that they want to be considered in the same breath as Ohio and Washington by just trampling the Portland Thunder in their last game as the Portland Thunder. It was 34-3 at the half, and did not get better for Portland in the second half. DeShaun Foster rushed for 109, Amani Toomer and L.J. Smith both scored twice, and LA made a statement as they locked up the #2 spot and a bye to prep for the Divisional Round in two weeks.
HOU 17 ARZ 34
In a heated battle of backups, Kris Kershaw of Houston faced off against Tony Banks of Arizona, with Banks coming out ahead. Santana Moss had a good game with 2 scores and 114 yards, but this was pretty much a snoozer for anyone who does not enjoy seeing teams experiment with their bench depth.
PIT 38 MGN 7
The Maulers settled for field goals on 6 different drives or this one could have been even uglier. Michigan went 1 for 12 on third down, 0 for 3 on fourth down and just got nothing from anyone on the roster as they clearly were not motivated to avoid the 0 for 14 season. Unsurprisingly Lovie Smith was relieved of his interim duties on Monday and now the Panthers start to look for a new coach. Pittsburgh has their sights on the playoffs, where they will host a Wild Card game this week.
TBY 13 JAX 30
In what would be George Seifert’s final game leading the Bandits, things did not go his way. Turnovers and penalties spoiled a pretty good day for Willis McGahee, and after the game star wideout Randy Moss actually came out and said he is hoping for a change. That change came the next day when Black Monday took out the coach who had won a league title in his first season in Tampa Bay.
ORL 24 BOS 21
With nothing on the line, Boston started rookie QB Brian St. Pierre, just to see what they had in him. He played fairly well, but Orlando got more out of their offense in a pretty lackluster game and came away with their 3rd win of the season. Reidel Anthony, getting the start for Keenan McCardell showed some moves, catching 7 balls for 122 yards and a score as Orlando took home a hollow victory.
PHI 13 BAL 15
Philly started David Garrard for the second season ender in two years and Ryan Leaf got to audition once again for Baltimore coaches, problem is that those coaches won’t be in Baltimore next year as Lindy Infante was let go the next day. Leaf threw two picks while Philadelphia’s rookie halfback Larry Johnson rushed for 60 yards, a key consideration as Stephen Davis now becomes a free agent.
Misery for Memphis, Joy for Texas, and 12 teams now ready to face off in the USFL playoffs. Looking at the seeds and byes, it will be Washington-Ohio as the 1-2 in the East, both resting and planning during their bye weeks. In the West Denver is #1 and LA snags the second spot thanks to the Breakers’ loss. That means New Orleans will host the Texas Outlaws in one Wild Card game next week. The other Western Wild Card game will see Birmingham travel to Seattle in what could be an excellent battle of QB talent between Favre and Leftwich.
The Eastern Wild Cards will feature a divisional battle as Chicago travels to Pittsburgh, while the New Jersey Generals, who slid from the 4-slot to the 6 this week, will visit Jacksonville to take on the Bulls. The Bulls won 3 in a row to finish out the season.
LEAGUE LEADERS FINALIZED IN WEEK 14
As we see each season, the jockeying on the leaderboard comes to an end on the season’s final week. While there was not much drama in most quarters, there were a few late efforts worth noting. It took him most of the season to overcome Byron Leftwich’s passing totals, but late season injury to Leftwich left the door open and Kerry Collins raced through it, finishing with 4,694 yards passing, over 600 more than the Seattle QB. Collins, a clear MVP favorite, also blew away the competition with 52 touchdown passes, a staggering number for a 14-week season. Leftwich was again second with 36, the only other QB to top 30 this season.
The rushing title was Tiki Barber’s for most of the year, but again, late season injury left the door open and Barber would finish in third place, behind Pittsburgh’s Terrell Davis and the 2003 champion, Ahman Green, with 1,368 yards. Interestingly, neither Davis or Green would be the league’s rushing TD champ. That honor went to Denver’s big man, Robert Holcombe, who racked up 12 TDs to lead the league.
Joey Galloway, as expected, led the league in both TD receptions (18) and in receiving yards (1,563), despite a late push from Denver’s Peerless Price. Price would share the title of most receptions with Portland’s Muhsin Muhammad, with both garnering 95 catches over the 14-week season, though Muhammad did it with 9 fewer targets than Price.
Jim Schwantz of Memphis had a huge final week to leapfrog both Michael Barrow (WSH) and Demetrius DuBose (PIT) and snag the tackle title this season, while the big battle for sacks came down to a tie, with Phil Hansen once again in the mix, this time with Birmingham’s Mike Rucker right there.
In a battle that raged all year long between Washington’s Doug Pelfrey and Pittsburgh’s Bill Grammatica, it was the Mauler that came away on top, outlasting Pelfrey to win by 3 points, 147-144.
Looking at the league recordbook, we have two new records, both from passers. Kerry Collins’s final QB Rating of 143.6 absolutely shattered his own record of 136.6 from last year, and well above 3rd place, held by Tony Eason from 1991 with 136.3. And finally, Jake Delhomme of Jacksonville also set a record this season with a 73.7 completion percentage, 0.8 points higher than the mark set by Denver’s Mark Brunell in 1998.
TOP CANDIDATES FOR AWARDS
With the league leaders we see above, it is not all that hard to look at the various league awards and determine some potential winners. Kerry Collins is again the clear favorite for MVP, leading the league with over 4,500 yards passing and 52 touchdowns in only 14 weeks. Fellow Glory star Eddie George could make it back to back OPOTY awards as he racked up over 1,900 combined yards and 12 touchdowns for Ohio. If he gest any competition it may be from Arizona’s Jake Plummer, who again led his club in both passing and rushing, but Arizona did not win all that many games, so he would be a darkhorse in this race.
Defensive POTY is a bit tighter, with Mike Rucker and Phil Hansen tied atop the sack board. An outside chance has to go to Pittsburgh’s Patrick Surtain, who not only was among league leaders with 5 picks, but also had 8 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, and 91 total tackles. Those are very impressive numbers.
As for Rookie of the Year, we suspect that while folks in Tampa Bay will pull for McGahee, and maybe a few folks in Jacksonville will mention Anquon Boldin, the clear winner is going to be QB Byron Leftwich of Seattle. Not only did he lead his club to the playoffs, but he threw for over 4,000 yards and 36 touchdowns as a rookie. Those are almost Brett Favre numbers right there.
Finally, Coach of the Year. This is always a tough choice. Washington’s Paul Hackett seems a good choice, but we should not overlook the work done this year by Denver’s Dick Jauron, or Boston’s John Fox, who took a miserable Atlanta Fire team, dealt with the craziness of a franchise relocation, and had the Cannons in the playoff hunt almost until the end. 7-7 usually does not win the award, and missing the playoffs after Tiki Barber was injured in Week 12 does not help, but Fox did an amazing job with an underwhelming roster.
FREE AGENTS TO HIT THE MARKET
While the free agency window does not open for a few weeks, the players on non-playoff teams who have not resigned with their teams are now officially out of contract and available to discuss options with other teams. Some may still resign with their current clubs, but a lot will move on. Looking at the 12 non-playoff teams, we see a lot of talent out there to be had. Here is our quick list of the top free agents from the bottom half of the league.
Arizona: With most expecting Bennie Blades to retire this year the biggest free agent names out of Arizona are tackle Matt Stinchcomb and CB Fred Smoot. Both could be well paid to find new homes.
Baltimore: The Blitz will have a new head coach for the first time in a decade, and that will certainly affect who stays and who goes. DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila is the biggest question. The clear #1 DE potentially available would be a big loss for Baltimore. TE Kyle Brady is another talented player who could opt for a new location.
Boston: Things are looking up for the Cannons after a pretty solid first year. Will that help them retain players like WR Terrance Matthis or G Glenn Roundtree?
Houston: The Gamblers don’t have a lot of top tier players headed into the pool. Perhaps the most intriguing is LB Allen Aldridge, who is solid without being a game changer.
Memphis: Not only do the Showboats fall out of the playoffs on the last week of the season, but they have a ton of players unsigned. With cap limitations they simply cannot sign them all. DT Norman Hand would be a big loss, but so too would tackle Norberto Davidds-Garrido, CB Jason Simmons, or LB Shawn Barber.
Michigan: For players on an 0-14 club, leaving town may feel like a good option, but one the Panthers cannot afford, especially for the likes of FS Mike Prior, the biggest name on their list of unsigned talent.
Nashville: The Knights are hoping to resign kicker Ryan Longwood and guard Gennaro DiNapoli,, which may mean having to give up on DT Don Sasa, WR/KR Darnay Scott, and G Todd Peat.
Oakland: The most interesting FA prospects from the Invaderse are DT John Thornton and FS Antuan Edwards, but both are not prime big money signings. Oakland is more likely to focus on resigning members of their O-line like Michael Cheever and Ken Blackman.
Orlando: With both backup QBs ending their contracts the question in Orlando is if either Mark Bulger or Jason Garrett will be back. Garrett was signed from the NFL on a 1-year deal, but never saw the field. Bulger has had an up and down career as a backup. Orlando is more likely to throw money at TE John Henry Mills or LT Mike Gandy than the QB position.
Philadelphia: The big name here is Stephen Davis. Unless the Stars feel great about rookie Larry Johnson, they may need to invest in keeping Davis in town. But they also have SS Je’Rod Cherry, WR Troy Brown, and G Joe Patton to consider.
Portland: The Thunder got a deal done with top WR Muhsin Muhammad, so that pressure is gone. But that leaves LB Greg Biekert, T Robert Hicks, and HB Correll Buckhalter as potential departures.
Tampa Bay: The Bandits may look to shake things up on the roster as they bring in a new head coach, but the one guy they cannot afford to lose is DE Santana Dotson. If he gets the big money that means others like LB Kevin Mitchell, FS Jerome Woods, CB Samari Rolle, or DT Carlos Anthony may be on the way out.
Looking ahead to the Wild Card round, the good news is that we have not seen any injuries we would call potential-altering for our playoff teams. Yes, some guys are potentially not at their best, but we think, at least through the Wild Card Round we are going to see teams with their main players intact. Here is the rundown:
Generals @ Bulls: New Jersey is perhaps the most banged-up of the Wild Card teams, with CB Mike Rumph, DT Jason Wiltz, and DE Shaun Ellis out for the game. Safety Brian Hawkins is also questionable. That is 4 starting defenders, which may be a concern for the Generals to be sure. For Jacksonville, DT Renaldo Wynn remains out, and center Dominic Raiola is questionable.
Stallions @ Dragons: The biggest missing player is Seattle’s David Boston, but the Dragons have already proven that they have depth at the receiver spot. Brett Favre is listed as probable, but this is Favre, so you know he will start.
Machine @ Maulers: Chicago has a few question marks. We knew Marcus Spears was out, but now we see two corners on the injury list, James Trapp is questionable, while R.W. McQuarters is listed as probable as he comes back after a couple of games out. For Pittsburgh we have DT James Shaw out, but it appears that the injury last week to DE Kyle Vanden Bosch was minor, so expect him back. CB Bobby Taylor is listed as questionable but did get some snaps this week, so he is likely to play.
Outlaws & Breakers: By far the healthiest two teams in the weekend. Texas had no players on their injury report, a very rare occurrence for a 15th week of the year. New Orleans does have Chidi Ahanotu out and may have to play without fullback Jason Wittman, but neither of these injuries is considered one that will heavily impact the gameplan for the Breakers.
Black Monday Hits Four Clubs
We kind of saw the writing on the wall, but it did not take long for predictions to turn to reality. On Monday, following the Week 14 slate of games, four different clubs made the announcement of a change at the top. Let’s take a look at each situation and what we are hearing about options.
MICHIGAN
We knew about Michigan. Lovie Smith was interim and had little chance of following Portland’s Joe Vitt as an interim who would get the permanent job. With Michigan going winless and looking pretty bad while doing it, the writing was on the wall for Smith. So, Lovie was let go, and very likely will catch on either in the USFL or NFL as a defensive coach once again. He is very well respected in that field, but may not be ready to lead a club yet. So, what does Michigan look for? Well, the options are somewhat endless, in that the Panthers are horrible on both offense and defense. They have a talented young QB, which is a good building block, but clearly need help in many areas. Getting a coach with experience building a club might be the best option, perhaps a former expansion team head coach or one who has dealt with similar situations. Could that mean jumping on recently fired Baltimore HC Lindy Infante?
TAMPA BAY: George Seifert came in with a bang, winning a title in his first year, but the questions have always been there about whether he simply inherited a championship team from the volatile Jerry Glanville. With the Bandits headed the wrong way, ownership clearly felt that this might have been the case, letting Seifert go after a 4-win season. So what does Tampa Bay do to restore Bandit Ball to what they want it to be? The rumors on Tampa sports radio are that they have already reached out to two prior Bandit head coaches to inquire about interest, both Glanville (who is unlikely to leave the NFL for a job at a club that fired him unceremoniously) and USFL Hall of Fame coach Steve Spurrier, the first and most successful coach in Bandits history. Spurrier recently left the University of Florida, and is available if the Bandits want him. Could be a perfect fit for a team that needs to regain some swagger.
BALTIMORE: After more than a decade waiting for Lindy Infante’s teams to emerge from mediocrity to greatness, the Blitz simply had to realize that it was not happening. Baltimore and Infante came to an agreement to void the final 2 years of his contract and so they are now looking for a new direction. But what direction? They have a potential QB controversy with both Jeff Garcia and Ryan Leaf looking like mid-level options. Do they go for Option 3? They have a lot of defensive talent, so perhaps a coach who can turn talent into results, but they also need to better define their offense. Our guess is that they go for a defensive-minded coach and try to follow rival Washington’s path to playoff football. Dick LeBeau was recently let go as Head Coach of the Cincinnati Bengals, and while there are some questions about his game management skills, his defensive credentials are unassailable.
ARIZONA: The only pseudo-surprise of the Black Monday firings was that of Art Shell. Yes, he has taken Arizona to the playoffs three years running, including a deep run in 2001, but his inability to develop either a run game or a defense that can consistently compete means that the club is always a middling franchise. That seems a waste of Jake Plummer’s best years as a starter in the league. So, ownership is looking to do something different. Expect them to look for a young, up and coming, coordinator to take over and add some innovation, enthusiasm, and fire to a Wranglers club that simple needs to be more than just Jake Plummer doing Jake Plummer stuff.
First Twelve Slots in 2004 USFL Draft are Set
With the end of the regular season we also see the standings and order for the 12 non-playoff teams in the upcoming draft. No shocker, Michigan has the top pick. After that there was a bit of debate leading up to the final week, but an Orlando win on Week 14 helped clear that up, as did the wild finish to the Wild Card positioning. So, as 12 clubs prepare for playoff football, another 12 get ready for the offseason. Here is what we see as the biggest need for each club sitting outside of the postseason.
1. MICHIGAN: The Panthers need a lot of help, but by most accounts, QB is not one of the positions of need. Sitting at #1 in a quarterback heavy draft means they will get a lot of offers. Their best strategy is to moved down with in the Top 10, get a bushel of picks to do so, and then work to improve their biggest areas of need, O-line, halfback, and defensive line.
2. OAKLAND: Orlando’s win means Oakland is guaranteed the #2 spot. They are not going to move out of this position because they need a QB, unless they have a clear favorite and fear someone will move into Michigan’s position to sign him. If not, then expect Oakland to pick either NC State’s Philip Rivers or Miami of Ohio’s Ben Roethlisberger with their top pick. Then the challenge becomes getting that pick to sign up. Having a respected coach like Dennis Green at the helm could make that easier than last year’s Carson Palmer debacle.
3. ORLANDO: The Renegades come in at #3 and you know what we are going to say, Edge Rusher. This year’s collapse seems directly related to Chris Doleman’s retirement and the inability of the Renegades to replace him. Now, if they are able to sign KGB away from Baltimore in free agency, then they have a proven commodity and their draft opens up, but if not, they have to look hard at making a deal with Ohio or LA to get a shot at either OSU’s Will Smith or USC’s Keniechi Udeze.
4. TAMPA BAY: Picks 4-6 came down to some tough tiebreakers, but Tampa Bay ended up as the #4 selection. A lot depends on who they hire as their new coach and how comfortable they are with Trent Green as the starting QB. He missed most of this year, but his 2002 season was not ideal. Assuming they don’t need a QB, they could trade down, but if Michigan or Orlando is willing to do that, it makes Tampa’s pick less appealing. If not, then the priorities need to be the secondary and the linebacking corps. Best available player there is actually in the Territorial Draft, Miami safety Sean Taylor. So maybe a LB in the Open Draft?
5. HOUSTON: The Gamblers cannot be happy with their production at halfback. Both Kevin Faulk and Mike Anderson have their talents, but it is just so obvious how the Gamblers will play based on who is in the backfield that it makes life easier for the defense. So, if they can nab a high quality 3-down back (so rare these days) they can make life tougher for defensive playcallers. How about taking a shot at Ok State’s Tatum Bell?
6. PHILADELPHIA: The Stars lost out on the 3-way tie among 4-win teams, so they get 6th position. They saw enough from Brian Griese to not be in the QB hunt, but with Stephen Davis likely leaving town and Larry Johnson still a bit of an unknown, they too could be thinking halfback. More likely, since Johnson was a high cost signing last year, is that they focus on defense. If players like Va Tech’s DeAngelo Hall or Miami’s Jonathan Vilma are not scooped up in the limited T-Draft choices, either would be a solid addition to a D that needs more muscle.
7. ARIZONA: Do we even need to say halfback? It is the same story every year. But, the Wranglers will have a new coach, and honestly, the bigger issue might be the O-line and their inability to create holes. So, if I am the new guy, sitting at #7, I look first for a big tackle like Iowa’s Robert Gallery or Miami’s Vernon Carey.
8. PORTLAND: The Thunder are headed to the desert, but they are also headed for another non-playoff season if they don’t improve the defense considerably. Look for the Thunder to spend a lot of their draft on D-line and the LB corps.
9. BALTIMORE: Very hard to predict until we see who the new head coach is. It also depends a lot at what happens at QB. They have both Garcia and Leaf under contract, but neither looked like a long term solution. Is Baltimore likely to give up a bunch of picks to move up and take a shot at one of the top prospects or do they stick with either Garcia or Leaf this year and pick a lower ranked prospect like a J.P. Losman or Matt Schaub.
10. NASHVILLE: The Knights have a lot going for them, including the league rushing champion, a decent game manager at QB, a talented wideout in Emmanuel, but the defense that once dominated is now pretty dormant. So, look to the secondary with this pick. There are quality corners in this draft and if several slip through the T-Draft then Nashville is likely to pounce.
11. BOSTON: The Cannons have a lot of good players who stepped up this year. Their QB situation is solid for now with Bledsoe, though he is less and less mobile each year, and they have a top tier HB. What they lack is explosiveness on the outside. But, we may very well see both Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco on the market. Don’t be surprised if Boston deals with WR in free agency and then the sky is the limit with this pick. Defensive End, Guard, Linebacker. All are positions of potential need if WR is off the table.
12. MEMPHIS: A very talented team that underperformed this year and let the playoffs slip away. They have good talent at the skill positions so expect Memphis to look at the line (offensive and defensive) and the secondary, two areas where this draft has some talent.
Wild Card weekend is upon us. We have 4 games over 2 days, each with nationwide coverage. Let’s get right to the analysis and see who our in-house swami’s see moving on to the next round.
Saturday, June 29 @ 4pm ET on ABC
AllTel Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida
Both teams have a lot of upside for the offseason, but both also struggled with consistency, thus the 9-5 records. We like the Generals offense led by Tom Brady and Curtis Enis, but we worry that the injuries on defense will prove to be a problem for them against a Bulls team that likes to control the clock and shorten games. The Bulls are not the most explosive team, but with Terrell Owens and Anquon Boldin out wide, Jake Delhomme has a potentially deadly receiver duo. It is one of the reasons he set a league record for completion percentage this year.
OUR PICK: While we like aspects of both teams, we think New Jersey is the deeper squad and the one with a stronger overall team. It will be close, but we see Brady and the Generals pulling it out, 24-21.
#5 BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS (8-6) @ #4 SEATTLE DRAGONS (8-6)
Saturday, June 29 @ 8pm ET on NBC
Seattle Stadium, Seattle, Washington
This one should be fun. We could see over 100 pass attempts in this game between Favre and Leftwich. The Dragons are inexperienced in key positions, but talented. Birmingham has a lot of veterans who have been here before, which is a big edge for them. They also have a new-found ability to run the ball, which is essential since Seattle is also going to use the run game as a primary weapon. So, which defense can come up with enough big plays to take over this game? ‘
OUR PICK: We are going to go with experience and say that the Stallions make fewer mistakes and find a way to edge the young Dragons squad. 31-30 Birmingham in a shootout.
Sunday, June 30 @ 1pm ET on FOX
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Defense will be the order of the day in this one. Expect a heavy dose of run blitzes as both teams try to make the opposition one-dimensional. If that happens Jeff George certainly can outperform Charlie Batch, but even with the higher ranked defense, Chicago is more likely to have trouble containing Terrell Davis than Pittsburgh will have limiting carries for Duce Staley.
OUR PICK: If defense wins titles, then these two teams will be in the thick of things, but only 1 of them can come out on top. We think that this year the better of the two is in Pittsburgh. We are going with the Maulers to win a close, low-scoring game. Maulers 17 Machine 14.
Sunday, June 30 @ 5pm ET on ESPN
Super Dome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Texas has to feel somewhat lucky to have lost this week and still find themselves in the playoffs. That luck is likely to run out when they face the Breakers in New Orleans. New Orleans has been a bit inconsistent this season, but you know they will throw some new looks at Texas. Expect a lot of Thunder & Lightning with Ricky Williams pounding the ball inside while Troy Davis gets screens and swing passes galore. Az-Zahir Hakeem has been a revelation at receiver this year, and we can see him getting moved inside, outside, in cluster formations. That will be tough for Texas to handle.
OUR PICK: We see the Breakers as the clearly superior team, and we pick them to win by 10. 31-21 New Orleans and on to the Divisional Round.
Even in an Alternate universe a Detroit Football team goes winless in a season…
The intro, game recap, and free agents section all cite Michigan as going 0-16 instead of 0-14