2021 USFL Week 12 Recap: Newton to IR, Tebow to the Rescue
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A week that complicated a lot of team’s playoff hopes, from Birmingham losing their MVP Candidate QB for at least the next month to a number of playoff hopefuls suffering tough losses, including major upsets with St. Louis knocking off Chicago and New England stunning Houston. For others it was a week to reassert themselves, as Michigan did in a solid victory over Ohio or as New Jersey did with their win over Washington. It was also a week that saw some nice performances out of teams at the bottom of the standings, with both expansion clubs getting home wins while Jacksonville won their second in a row thanks to a nice game from QB Trevor Lawrence. We will break down all the scores, take a look at the cluster of teams hovering around .500, and discuss some early rumors about the upcoming offseason, but we begin with a huge story out of Birmingham, an injury that may just derail one of the feel-good stories of the season as Cam Newton could lose the remaining regular season to injury.
Newton Lost to Ankle, Tebow Asked to Be the Hero
It was a routine play, a drop back pass that led to a scramble, and it was a non-contact injury, but as soon as it happened everyone in Birmingham’s Protective Stadium new it was bad. Leading Memphis 14-10 early in the 2nd quarter, Birmingham faced a 3rd and 4 inside field goal range. The Showboats pressured Newton on his drop back and the dual threat QB had already decided to run for the first down. He started off to his left, cleared the line to gain but attempted to make a sharp cut to avoid a hit from NaVorro Bowman in pursuit. Newton put his full weight on his left foot, but the ankle immediately buckled, his foot bending under his calf. Birmingham’s star QB collapsed to the ground and had to be carried to the sideline, hopping on his one good foot.
Newton was immediately carted into the endzone. X-rays would reveal no break or fracture, but later imaging would show significant damage to both tendons and muscles around the outside of the ankle. The diagnosis was 2-3 weeks before Newton could put weight on the ankle and no less than 4 weeks, even in the best of circumstances for the MVP candidate to return to practice, much less game action. The verdict means that Newton, in all likelihood, will miss the entire remaining regular season, 5 games that will almost certainly determine whether the Stallions can hold their place atop the Southern Division or qualify for their first playoff appearance in 8 years.
Immediately after the injury, the ESPN commentators, Steve Levy and former USFL QB Brian Griese, started opining about the trade of Jameis Winston which Birmingham had executed only 3 weeks prior, leaving Tim Tebow as the primary option behind Newton. The assumption was that Stallion fans would now be furious with the team for letting their NFL import backup head to New England as part of a 3-team trade that brought two defenders to the Stallions for their playoff run. But, almost as soon as that debate got rolling, former University of Florida star and Bulls’ starting QB Tim Tebow started rewriting the game script.
After failing to gain another first down after the Newton injury, Birmingham settled for 3 to take a 17-10 lead. Memphis would match that score with a Dallas Goedert touchdown, but with Stallion fans still rallying behind their team, Tim Tebow came in for the next drive and helped calm the nerves at Protective Stadium by leading a successful 2-minute drill, scrambling twice for good yardage and connecting with Julian Edelman to put Birmingham up 24-17 at the half.
The second half was much more a defensive struggle as the Stallions had difficulty moving the ball for most of the half. Tebow would go only 2 of 6 in the 3rd, as the club tried to use the run to take pressure off. Memphis would record a tying score once again in the waning moments of the half. But as the 4th quarter began, Tim Tebow reawakened the Stallion fans with a play straight out of his SEC glory days at Florida. With the ball at the Memphis 46, Tebow called his own number, using the “alert” call at the line to shift from a drop back pass to an RPO option call. Tebow faked the ball to Ben Tate, bootlegged to the right, where he had TE Hunter Henry breaking open. But, instead of trying to hit his TE, Tebow pump faked, sending the pursuing linebacker into the air and then took off. He would pick up both Henry and WR Henry Ruggs as blockers as he made his way down the sideline for a 54-yard touchdown. It was pure Tebow, but it also reminded the crowd very much of Newton himself.
That play would end up being the winning score for the Stallions in their heated rivalry game with Memphis. It would also establish Tebow as a viable option with Newton down. The hope now in Birmingham is that the Tim Tebow who was an unstoppable dual threat in the SEC, and who threw for over 3,000 yards each year from 2011-2013 in Jacksonville, could revive his hero status and help Birmingham survive their final 5 games. The Stallions, currently sitting at 7-4 and holding a 1-game advantage over Houston in the Southern Division, likely only need to win 3 of 5 to be assured a playoff spot at 10-6, but obviously had hoped to do even better to win their first division title since Brett Favre was their QB back in 1999.
With Tebow at the helm, backed up by 2020 undrafted free agent Michael Cisneros, the Stallions will try to beat the odds and make that division run over the final 5 weeks. They have another division game this week, with 4-7 New Orleans coming to town, before traveling to Oklahoma, another home division game against San Antonio, and then two very tough games to end the season, with the Philadelphia Stars coming to Birmingham in Week 16 and a road trip to Arizona in the season finale. We expect the Stallions will look to find a 3rd QB in free agency this week, and the hope, of course, is that Newton is able to return to the team for the postseason, or even, with a strong recovery, by that season finale in Arizona. But, for now, it will be SEC superstar Tim Tebow with the playoff hopes of Stallion Nation on his shoulders.
CHICAGO MACHINE 30 ST. LOUIS SKYHAWKS 31
This was not supposed to be a tough game for Chicago, not even a close one, with the 7-2 Machine traveling down I-55 to face a 3-win St. Louis Skyhawks team that did not even have their dynamic QB Lamar Jackson suited up. Las Vegas saw this as a potential blowout, favoring the visiting Machine by 12 points. But, apparently, no one told the Skyhawks, or veteran backup Tyrod Taylor, that it was a lost cause. The Skyhawks came out in force, despite the fact that The Dome at America’s Center was looking very Chicago friendly, with a good number of Illinoisans and Machine fans making their way to the game.
The game started very much as the Vegas books had predicted, with Chicago dominating and Taylor struggling to make plays against the league’s 3rd rated defense. Chicago jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, thanks to a Bradford to Floyd TD toss and a short TD run from Notre Dame product Tony Jones Jr.. Chicago outgained St. Louis 101-21 in the quarter with the Skyhawks failing to produce a first down to Chicago’s 7. No one would have guessed at this point that St. louis would outgain Chicago 378-298 the rest of the way, or that they would consistently find the endzone against a defense that is one of the best in the league in minimizing big plays.
The first signs of life came when the Skyhawks forced a Chicago punt just as the 1st was ending, producing a sack of Sam Bradford to end their 3rd possession. The Skyhawks got the ball at their own 33, and on their very first play they surprised the Machine with a play action pass from Tyrod Taylor to Allen Robinson that went for 35 yards. The play got the moderate contingent of engaged Skyhawk fans into the game. The drive sputtered inside Chicago territory (as so many have this year) and St. Louis was forced to settle for a Zane Gonzalez field goal, but the big play was a sign of things to come.
After holding Chicago to a field goal on their next possession, St. Louis would have their first of 4 touchdown drives, and the first of 4 touchdown passes for their backup QB. Tyrod Taylor would go 4 of 5 on the drive, moving the ball crisply in 2-minute mode before finding Deionte Johnson uncovered in the endzone, the beneficiary of a nicely executed rub pattern. The St. Louis score meant that the underdog Skyhawks were down only 7 at the half, with Chicago taking a 17-10 lead into the break.
The Machine expanded on that lead with the opening possession of the 2nd half, with Bradford finding his new favorite target, Chase Claypool for the receiver’s 7th touchdown of the season. Back up by 14, Chicago was feeling good and the Machine fans breathed a sigh of relief, feeling their team would again take over a dominant position. But St. Louis quickly showed the Machine that the game was far from over. In a drive that took only 5 plays to go 74 yards, Taylor first scrambled for 8 yards on the opening play, then found FB Jerome Felton on a beautifully disguised screen play. Felton would rumble for 44 yards before finally being shoved out of bounds. The play electrified the St. Louis bench, and gave Taylor the confidence to make more calls at the line. He would complete another nice pass to get the ball down to the 9-yard line, a beautifully timed out route to Jakobi Myers. On the very next play it was rookie Kyle Pitts for the young tight end’s 1st TD of the season, a laser throw from Taylor hitting the rookie in stride just as he passed by the linebacker in coverage.
Chicago would add a field goal to end the 3rd quarter, but there was a feeling that St. Louis was not fading. The team was electrified on the sideline by the Taylor-led drive, and as the 4th quarter began, you could feel the energy coming from Taylor and the Skyhawk offense. On the very next possession after Chicago’s field goal, Taylor again found his rookie tight end. This time it was a very different play, a seam route that saw the two outside receivers draw the safeties to the sideline with sharp out routes. That left Pitts in single coverage with Chicago safety Micah Hyde. Hyde has been playing well all season, but he was slow to pick up on the route on this play, falling a step behind Pitts as the athletic tight end raced down the center of the field. Taylor dropped in a perfect pass, and while Hyde got a hit in on Pitt’s hip, the bigger receiver was able to shrug off the body blow and continue downfield for a 50-yard score.
The Chicago lead was down to 3, but the energy in the stadium made it feel like St. Louis had just taken the lead. This energy fed into a St. Louis defense that had struggled all year, rated 22nd in the league in points allowed, and 26th in the USFL, allowing 374 yards per game. The Skyhawks bent, but did not break on Chicago’s next possession. With the Machine run game getting the offense to the 11 yard line of St. Louis, but the Skyhawk D standing up for a stop on 3 consecutive plays in the redzone. Sam Bradford tried to thread the needle with throws to the endzone on both 2nd and 3rd down, but both times the St. Louis secondary was able to disrupt the throws, forcing the Machine to go for the field goal on 4th and 10 from the 11.
Chicago had a 6-point lead after the chip shot kick from Daniel Carlson. And with 2:32 left to go, it meant that St. Louis would have an opportunity to drive the field and get the win, a win no one expected of them. The Skyhawks took the ball at their own 22, 78 yards to go, 2 timeouts, and a QB who was feeling it after going 17 of 24 with 3 TDs in the game. Taylor would go 5 of 6 in the two minute drill, throwing to 4 different receivers on the drive. It began with a comeback route to Robinson, the game’s leading receiver with 6 catches for 117 yards. He followed that with another swing pass to Felton, who gained 8 on the play, then a short run by HB John Conner for the first down. The Skyhawks called their first time out, the ball on their own 43.
The next play was perhaps the biggest, with Taylor scrambling away from pressure as his receivers tried to find secondary positions after the initial routes ended. Taylor located Jakobi Myers along the sideline, and hit the 3rd year receiver with a perfect strike, allowing Myers to spin away from the corner and gain another 8 yards before stepping out of bounds at the Chicago 30. Another Conner draw and a short completion to Deionte Johnson and the Skyhawks had the ball on the Chicago 8 yard line with 27 seconds to go and one time out.
Taylor took a shot at the endzone, trying to find Robinson, but the ball was too high for his receiver, setting up a 2nd and goal at the 8. On 2nd and goal, Taylor was forced out of the pocket by Jason Pierre-Paul, but managed to pick up 3 yards before being dragged down from behind. 3rd and goal from the 5 with 11 seconds to play and their final timeout used to stop the clock. The Skyhawks lined up with Robinson and Johnson wide, Pitts and Will Disley inside along the line, showing a possible RPO with Conner or Taylor as runners. That would be a risky call as the Skyhawks would have no way to stop the clock after a run play. Chicago knew this and lined up ready for a passing play. It would be a shallow man coverage in a nickel, with 3 DBs hovering just inside the goalline.
St. Louis called a man-beater, a play that sent Disley in motion, lining up just outside Pitts on the right. When the snap came to Taylor, Pitts flew towards the endzone, with Dissley ducking in underneath him. The safety got caught in the shuffle, leaving Dissley open inside, and Taylor zipped the ball right to his chest. The bigger (and slower) of the two St. Louis tight ends, brought the ball in and fell backwards into the endzone before defensive help could get there. LB Manti Te’o hit Dissley as he fell, jarring the ball, but not dislodging it from the TE’s grip. He held tight to the ball as he fell on his back in the endzone. 6 seconds on the clock and the Skyhawks had tied the game at 30. All that was left was the PAT for the win. Zane Gonzalez connected on the kick and St. Louis went up with 6 ticks on the clock. A squib kick and it was all over. The St. Louis Skyhawks, and their undervalued backup QB, Tyrod Taylor, had knocked off rival Chicago, a result that few, if any, saw coming.
The loss certainly hurt Chicago, who were hoping to compete with Seattle for the top seed in the West, and now not only fell a game behind the Dragons for the chance at home field in the playoffs, but now found themselves only 1 game ahead of the feisty Pittsburgh Maulers, only 2 ahead of both Ohio and the reigning division champion Michigan Panthers. With upcoming games against some tough opponents (Ohio, New Jersey and Philadelphia among them), and having now lost 3 straight games, this loss had to rattle the Machine and threw their season into a very different light.
For St. Louis, this win would not put them in playoff contention, still only 4-7 on the season, but, after knocking off Pittsburgh the week before, it certainly was a moment of pride, and a possible sign of things to come. The Skyhawks would finish their 3-game divisional swing with a road game in Michigan in Week 13, and they too had a tough road ahead, but the confidence gained from this win would certainly help them as they tried to salvage the season and build towards a brighter future.
OHIO 10 MICHIGAN 37
A big win for the Michigan Panthers and a very much needed one as they get their last division win in 4 tries, and they did it without LeVeon Bell. Kirk Cousins had a stellar game, going 21 of 26 for 229 yards and 3 scores, all to newly arrived WR Justin Blackmon, making the GM look like a genius for the trade at the deadline. Blackman caught all 6 targets, scoring on 3 of them, all red zone tosses. The defense also came up huge, limiting the Ohio run game (including Fields) to only 55 total yards. The win moves Michigan into a tie with Ohio in 3rd place, a game behind the Maulers and Machine.
POTG: Panther QB Kirk Cousins: 21/26, 229 Yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
DENVER 28 ARIZONA 23
Denver wins the rivalry matchup in Arizona and puts some space between themselves and the rest of the division, all thanks to 4 first half TDs. Josh Allen threw for 3 scores and Bryce Hall picked off David Carr and returned it 36 yards for the game winning score as the Gold built up a 28-17 first half lead and held on for the 5-point victory. Despite being sacked 9 times, Carr threw for 412 yards in the comeback attempt, but it was not enough as Denver secured their 8th win and built up a 2-game lead in the division.
POTG: Denver’s rookie DE Odafe Oweh: 4 Tck, 4 Sck, 1 FF
HOUSTON 13 NEW ENGLAND 24
The Gamblers underestimate their NE Division foe and fall to the Steamrollers, thanks in large part to New England’s balanced offense, which rushed for 112 yards and passed for another 328. Ryan Tannehill went 19 of 26, connecting with Devante Parker and Will Fuller for scores, while the combo of Yeldon and Hill rushed for 112 and a score in the Steamroller upset win. They pulled it off despite McCoy connecting with Evans 9 times for 180 yards, as the New England defense bent but did not break against the Gambler attack.
POTG: Steamroller WR Will Fuller: 5 Rec, 159 Yds, 1 TD
MEMPHIS 24 BIRMINGHAM 31
In a game that may cost Cam Newton the rest of his season to an ankle injury, Tim Tebow rallied the Stallions, breaking out a 54-yard TD run in the 4th quarter to stun the Showboats. Birmingham gave up 130 yards rushing to the Showboats and Paxton Lynch threw for 2 scores, but with the game tied in the 3rd, after Newton’s injury, Tebow kept the ball on a RPO call and rambled all the way to the endzone to put Birmingham on top. It was a costly win for the Stallions, but one that also secured first place in the division.
POTG: Stallion QB Tim Tebow: 6/15, 98 Yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 11 Att, 64 Yds, 1 TD
OKLAHOMA 16 SAN ANTONIO 22
Don’t look now but the Gunslingers are in the playoff mix at 5-6. They get a home victory over Oklahoma thanks to a solid defensive effort and a pair of 4th quarter field goals. Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson scored on his only carry of the day (a goalline plunge) and Flacco hit Marquise Goodwin for a score, but it was the Gunslinger defense that won the day, holding Oklahoma out of the endzone until the final minutes of play.
POTG: San Antonio DE Gregory Rousseau: 4 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 Sfty
DALLAS 19 LAS VEGAS 17
Down 17-10 after 3 quarters, the Dallas Roughnecks rallied in the 4th and knocked off the Vipers at Wynn Arena. Justin Herbert hit Courtland Sutton for a 4th quarter Td, but with Catanzaro missing the game-tying PAT, the Roughnecks needed more. They got it with a Catanzaro field goal from 47 yards with only 19 seconds left in the game to secure the win and move to 5-6, staying alive in the Wild Card race.
POTG: Dallas QB Justin Herbert: 23/34, 260 Yds, 2 TD, 0 Int
PHILADELPHIA 16 BALTIMORE 21
The Blitz improve to 6-5, knocking off the slumping Stars as Josh Jacobs rushes for 80 yards and a score. The Blitz defense held Philadelphia to only 2 field goals until the 4th quarter, building up a 21-6 lead before a late rally by Philadelphia pulled them within 1 scores. A Wentz to Moore TD with 23 seconds left got Philadelphia within 5, but they could not secure the onside kick and Baltimore held on for the division win.
POTG: Blitz WR Michael Pittman Jr: 4 Rec, 112 Yds, 1 TD
WASHINGTON 21 NEW JERSEY 28
Washington played the Generals tough, pulling out to a 21-14 lead in the 3rd, but New Jersey dominated the final 20 minutes of action, tying the score on a Foles to Pharaoh Cooper TD late in the 3rd and adding the game winner, a Delone Carter TD run, in the 4th. Carter and Pollard combined for 95 yards rushing and Foles went 18 of 29 for 204 and 3 TDs in the victory for the Generals, who now sit at 8-3.
POTG: New Jersey CB Rashard Robinson: 9 Tck, 1 Int
SAN DIEGO 9 JACKSONVILLE 21
The Bulls win their 3rd game in the last 4 as the defense picks off Christian Ponder twice and holds Charles Sims to only 2.2 YPC with 41 yards on 19 carries. The Bull run game was far more effective, with Chubba Hubbard getting the start and combining with Devin Singletary to rush for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns on the day.
POTG: Bull LB Alex Anzelone: 10 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 FF
NEW ORLEANS 21 CHARLOTTE 3
Kyle Boller gets the start for the Monarchs, but struggles to mount any offense as New Orleans holds them to a single field goal. Tajh Boyd got the start for the injured Geno Smith and produced 3 touchdowns on a 15 of 26 outing. Jordy Nelson, Justin Jefferson, and DeMarco Murray all put points on the board as New Orleans snaps a 3-game losing streak by beating the winless Monarchs.
POTG: Breaker QB Tajh Boyd: 15/26, 305 Yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
ORLANDO 8 LOS ANGELES 3
In a game that set back offensive football at least 20 years, the Orlando Renegades get a safety and manage two field goals as they upend the LA Express. This was an ugly one, with 13 sacks between the two teams and almost no threat of a big play at all. Neither team can feel good coming off this game, but at least the W helps Orlando move above .500 and into competition with Atlanta for 2nd place in the Southeast. As for LA, the loss drops them below .500, now a full 3 games behind division-leading Seattle.
POTG: Orlando DE Montez Sweat; 3 Tck, 3 Sck, 1 FF
ATLANTA 17 PORTLAND 38
Atlanta hurt their playoff cause by laying an absolute egg in Portland against a 3-win Stags team. Despite 118 yards from Nick Chubb, the Fire fell behind early and could not recover. Portland put up 21 points on their first 3 possessions, with Brandin Cooks scoring twice and Dale Luong returning a Pat White pick 32 yards for a score. White struggled all game, picked off 4 times in his first start for the Fire. Marcus Mariota had no such difficulties, going 27 for 33 and throwing 3 touchdowns as Portland improves to 4-7.
POTG: Stag DB Dale Luong: 5 Tck, 1 Int, 1 Def TD
PITTSBURGH 19 OAKLAND 13 OVERTIME
Sony Michel busts off a 25-yard walk-off touchdown run in overtime as Pittsburgh gets the W on the road. The Maulers needed a final drive TD to send the game to overtime, and they got it when Andy Dalton found Adam Thielen on a fade route with 1:30 left on the clock. The Mauler D picked off Tom Brady twice and sacked him 4 times, including a big sack on the final possession which forced Oakland to play for overtime. Michel, who had only 11 yards in regulation, broke free on the Mauler’s first overtime possession and ended the game with the dynamic scoring run, giving Pittsburgh their 7th win on the season.
POTG: Mauler CB Tre Herndon: 6 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 Int
TAMPA BAY 17 SEATTLE 19
The battle of heavyweights lived up to the hype, with the Seattle D containing the Bandit Ball offense, despite giving up 408 yards passing to Dak Prescott. Dez Bryant had a huge game, catching 8 balls for 207 yards, but never found the endzone as Seattle tightened up their D each time the Bandits reached the red zone. Knowshon Moreno rushed for 97 yards and a score, but the big play for Seattle was a 4th quarter TD toss from Brett Hundley to Marshall Newhouse that gave them a 9-point lead with 6 minutes to play. Tampa added a late Dalvin Cook TD, but it was too little too late for the Bandits, who drop their 2nd game of the season.
POTG: Seattle LB Khalil Mack: 6 tck, 1 Sck, 1 Int, 2 FF, 1 FR
Khalil Mack helps Seattle Deliver a Statement Win
Nine consecutive wins do not happen by accident, and they do not happen without a variety of players stepping up each and every week. Defeating the 9-1 Tampa Bay Bandits this week was not only a 9th win for the Dragons, but a statement win as they took down the best in the game, the defending champions and a team that had been an offensive juggernaut all season long. That Seattle not only held Tampa Bay to 17 points, but also found a way to win despite being outgained by over 100 yards (424-312) meant that the Dragons had found ways to bend but not break, to take advantage of Tampa mistakes, and to prove resilient. That mental toughness began with the defense, and in particular with linebacker Khalil Mack, who finished the game with a pretty impressive stat line, racking up 6 tackles (3 for a loss), a sack a pick, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.
Mack was a huge reason why the Bandit run game was held to only 16 total yards on the day, regularly blowing up plays and forcing Dalvin Cook to turn outside runs back inside, where others like LB Josh Allen, and DT Byron Mone trapped the elusive Bandit halfback. Mack was also a nightmare for QB Dak Prescott, creating pressures, hurries, and one of the Dragon’s 6 sacks on the day. Prescott still put up big numbers, throwing for 408 yards, but when the game was on the line, the Seattle defense found ways to end drives and get the Bandits off the field. They had held Tampa Bay to only 1 TD through 3 quarters, taking a 19-10 lead with 6 minutes left, and while the Bandits did succeed in their hurry up offense to put 7 more on the board, they did so with so little time left that only an onside kick could help them salvage the game. The Dragon special teams did their job and QB Brett Hundley took the knee to end the game, but it was clear that the Dragons had knocked off Tampa Bay and now, thanks to Chicago’s 3 game slide, held the future 1 seed in the palms of their hands, winners of 9 straight, and, on this day, home to one of the most devastating defensive players in the game in Khalil Mack.
Carr Outperforms Allen, but Gold Get the Win
No one is going to knock David Carr for Arizona’s 28-23 loss to the Denver Gold. The Arizona QB had his best game of the year, averaging 11.1 yards per attempt as he threw for 412 yards and 3 touchdowns. In the showdown with Denver’s Josh Allen, Carr clearly came out on top, with Allen mustering only 187 yards to Carr’s 412. But, with both QBs each tossing 3 touchdowns, Carr’s big numbers were not enough. The difference? The one poor throw that Carr made all day and Denver’s ability to cash in on it. Late in the 2nd period, Carr tried to force a ball to Victor Cruz, only to have Denver CB Bryce Hall snatch the ball away and race 36 yards for a pick-six. Carr more than redeemed himself with over 200 yards and a TD to Brandon Aiyuk in the 2nd half, but it proved to be just a few yards and just a few points too few for the Wranglers to get the home win and pull closer to the Gold in the standings. The Denver win gives them a 2-game lead on Arizona and the field in the SW Division. With 5 games left to go, and now down 2 games to the Gold, the Wranglers may well be battling for a Wild Card, with only slim hopes to win their 7th consecutive division crown.
Expansion Clubs Starting To Take Shape with Big Week 11 Wins
Building a competitive team takes time. The history of expansion in the USFL clearly proves this, with only the 1984 teams getting a quick jump because their competitors only had 1 year of experience ahead of them. For most others, in 1995, 2006, 2008, and now, 2020, the pace of growth is slow and erratic. But, despite the odds, both New England and San Antonio are showing that they are making improvements and finding some success in their sophomore campaigns. With both winning this week, we wanted to take a moment to recognize the gains made by both teams.
New England’s upset of Houston this week marks their 2nd consecutive upset win, having knocked off the slumping Stars last week in Philadelphia. Winning back-to-back road games for the first time as a franchise, and against two teams that appear to be playoff bound, is a very nice feather in the cap of Coach John Fox and the Steamrollers. New England now moves into 4th place in the Northeast, a position they took last year by surpassing Philadelphia’s 2-win season with 6 wins of their own. Their target this year is to surpass those 6 inaugural season wins, which means they will need to win 3 more games in the final 5 weeks. That could be a tough task, considering they play 3 teams currently over .500 and hoping for a playoff berth. But, New England is building towards a goal. Yes, they are struggling on offense, with the league’s lowest scoring club at only 13.5 PPG, but the defense is in the Top 12, allowing only 21.1 points per game and limiting teams in both the pass and run game. They have 2 games left against Washington, who share a 4-7 record with them, and could well finish ahead of the Federals if they can sweep that series. That means that to reach 7 wins they need one upset, with Orlando, Baltimore, and Ohio their other two games. They won’t be favored in any of those games but they were not favored the past 2 weeks and that did not seem to hold them back.
As for San Antonio, they are already ahead of last year’s pace, sitting at 5-6 on the year, already 2 games up on their 2020 record of 3-13. They too have won their last 2 games, both at home, and both division games, as they knocked off Houston in Week 10 then returned from their late bye week to defeat Oklahoma this week. With Joe Flacco at the helm, and with solid contributions from NFL import back Melvin Gordon, San Antonio is a solid offensive squad, sitting 9th in yards and 14th in scoring, a middle of the pack ranking for the 2nd year team. They still struggle a bit on defense, giving up just over 100 yards per game rushing and another 245 passing each week, but they have been in most of their games, giving up 22.5 points per week and scoring 22.4.
San Antonio has won 3 of their last 4, but their road to .500 will be a tough one, with huge games coming up against Arizona, Atlanta, Birmingham and Denver. That is not an easy road, especially with the Fire, Stallion, and Gold games on the road. At 5-6, they are currently in the cluster of teams well within the Wild Card race, and while most see them as a poser rather than a potential playoff team, the Gunslingers are still in the mix, which, for a 2nd year team, is an accomplishment already.
White Picked 4 Times as Stags Put out the Fire
It is a nervous time to be a member of the Fire Brigade, as Atlanta’s official fan group is called. The Fire have dropped 4 of their last 5 after a 5-1 start, their starting QB, Aaron Murray, is lost for the season to a PCL injury, and they have slipped back into the pack, 3 games behind Tampa Bay in the division and not at all assured of a Wild Card spot. To make matters worse, their backup QB, now thrust into the starting role, Pat White, just had a nightmare game against a pretty mediocre defense, throwing 4 picks against Portland in a blowout loss to the Stags. A team that felt ready to compete with the defending champion Bandits is now looking to be on life support, needing to find a winning formula fast or face a possible slide down the division standings and out of playoff contention.
It will be no easy road for White and the Fire, with a trip to New Jersey this week, and some tough matchups, including a season ender at Tampa Bay, on the docket. In this week’s loss to Portland, the Stags focused their attention on White, allowing Nick Chubb to run rather effectively (13 carries for 118 yards and a TD), but with constant pressure on White, the QB proved prone to poor decision making, throwing into traffic and throwing late over the middle (always a no-no). Expect the Generals and future foes to try a similar strategy of shallow zones and front-line pressure. Chubb can help White with more touches and more short-yardage 3rd downs, but White is going to have to make smarter decisions under pressure if Atlanta is going to turn the season around and find their ways to the postseason.
Bandits Send Short to IR with Wrist Injury
Bad news for the Tampa Bay Bandit defense as DT Kawaan Short is lost for the year after suffering a wrist injury that will require surgery this week. Short got caught up in a dogpile after a fumble by Seattle’s Gus Edwards in the Bandit’s road loss to the Dragons. His wrist caught awkwardly under a pile of bodies, he suffered both ligament and tendon damage. The 8-year veteran had been part of a 3-man rotation inside, rotating with Marcell Dareus and Bryan Cowart in Tampa’s 4-3 scheme. He will now be shuttered for the season, with Brent Urban now joining the rotation and 2nd year sub Kevin Givens moved from the practice squad to fill Short’s spot. In a game that also saw OT Levi Brown suffer an injury (expected back in Week 13), Short missed the final quarter and now will miss the final quarter of the season as he recovers and rehabs.
Tampa Bay’s loss in Seattle means that we are still without a single team guaranteed a spot in the 2020 USFL playoffs. Both Seattle and Tampa Bay sit at 9 wins, but with the 7th best team in each conference at 6-5, and 5 games yet to play, it seems we may be waiting before anyone can clinch on record alone. Both Seattle and Tampa Bay are still the most likely to lock up a spot first, as both hold 3 game leads in their division, meaning that a win this week, with losses to Orlando, Atlanta, or Oakland, could do the trick. We could see two division titles announced before anyone is eligible as a Wild Card, not surprising when we have such a cluster of teams either at 6-5 or 5-6.
We did see, however, our first officially eliminated club. To no one’s surprise, that club is the 0-11 Charlotte Monarch team that has simply been abysmal this year. Charlotte has given up twice as many points as they have scored (168-321) and has lost 7 of 11 games by double digits. Expect Coach Joseph to be on Black Monday alert, assuming he lasts through the full season, which at this point has to be in doubt. At 0-11, Charlotte is now officially out of the running, and we should expect wholesale changes to the franchise.
Another rough week, well beyond the lead story about Cam Newton’s ankle. Two more IR placements, both starters, as well as a pretty long list of players who could be placed on IR as soon as their team is no longer a playoff hopeful. Baltimore, for example, hopes Eli Rogers can return in time for a Wild Card game if they qualify. As we get closer to the conclusion of the regular season, expect several players with longer recovery timelines to be shuttered for the season as teams look to 2022 and want to avoid any further complications this year.
OUT
TE Gavin Escobar JAX ACL Tear IR
DT Kawann Short TBY Wrist IR
WR Eli Rogers BAL Broken Leg 6-8 Weeks
CB Prince Amukamara WSH PCL Tear 6-8 Weeks
CB Benjamin St. Juste NE Miniscus 6-8 Weeks
QB Cam Newton BIR Ankle 4-6 Weeks
G Chris Lindstrom NJ Wrist 1-2 Weeks
OT Riley Reiff BAL Ribs 1-2 Weeks
FB Anthony Sherman HOU Foot 1-2 Weeks
DOUBTFUL
CB Mackensie Alexander LV Concussion
WR Kenny Golloday LV Knee
QUESTIONABLE
OT Taylor Lewan JAX Knee
DE J. J. Watt MEM Concussion
C Robert Vega ARZ Migraines
DT Dontari Poe MGN Concussion
Making Sense of the 6-5 and 5-6 Cluster
Five games to go and while there are certainly teams looking solidly like playoff hopefuls, and others, of course, who don’t appear to have what they need this year, but we are also looking at a huge cluster of teams who are on the bubble. With those 5 games left, we have 12 of the league’s 30 clubs sitting either at 6-5 (eight) or at 5-6 (four). These teams could well be battling over only 2-4 possble playoff spots, especially if those teams with 7 or more wins currently continue to have success. So, what do we make of these 12 clubs? Who is primed to make a run, who may need to get some help, and who might just be a pretender, likely to drop more games down the stretch than they win? Here is our quick rundown of all 12 “bubble” teams as they prepare for Week 13.
ARIZONA (6-5); The 6-time defending SW Division Champs are struggling for consistency this year, but they are still a very talented team and one certainly capable of going on a run late. They are relatively healthy, and their next 3 games (@ San Antonio, vs. Portland and @ Las Vegas) could tell the story. If they can win those 3, they are in good shape as they prepare for the final 2 weeks. The Division may not be possible, but we see Arizona as a likely Wild Card.
ATLANTA (6-5): Even before losing Aaron Murray to injury, the Fire were slumping, losing 3 in a row before a surprising win over Houston. Now, with Pat White at QB, it is hard to feel confident that Atlanta can get to 10 wins, perhaps not even to 9. They have some very tough games ahead, including New Jersey this week, and back-to-back division games @ Orlando and @ Tampa Bay to close out the season. That feels like a recipe for an 8-8 year at best.
BALTIMORE (6-5): Picked by most to win the division after a very aggressive offseason, Baltimore has largely disappointed, but at 6-5 and with some very winnable games on the horizon (vs. Washington, @ New England, and @ St. Louis in the finale) we think the Blitz have a chance to play their way into playoff position. The key may be the 2-game stretch when they travel to Pittsburgh and then host Tampa Bay. They likely need a win in one of those games.
DALLAS (5-6): Being under .500 this late in the year was not the plan for the Roughnecks. They have struggled on offense, but their win this week against Las Vegas certainly helps. A win in Denver next week will be vital to their playoff hopes. They do finish the year with 3 of their final 4 games at home, but they may need to run the table to feel safe for a playoff berth.
HOUSTON (6-5): When the Gamblers were 6-2, we had little doubt they would be in the field, but after losing 3 in a row, including bad losses to both expansion teams in the past 3 weeks, we cannot be so certain. They face Las Vegas this week in what may be a must-win game at NRG Stadium. With Memphis and Tampa Bay after that, the Gamblers have to find their mojo quickly if they hope to hit 10 wins.
LOS ANGELES (5-6): We were ready to write off the Express, but back-to-back wins over Las Vegas and Dallas had us feeling better. This week’s offensive nightmare against Orlando has us doubting again. They have a nice “bye week” against Charlotte this week, but then they need to treat their next home game vs. Seattle as a must-win, a playoff atmosphere, or the final weeks could be pointless.
MEMPHIS (5-6): The 2020 Southern Champs are not looking at all like the same team this year. Yes, J. J. Watt has been outstanding, but the offense has not found success in recent weeks. Their loss this week, with Tim Tebow finding a way to win, was a big blow. They head to Jacksonville next week in a game they should (and need to) win. That is followed by a huge home matchup against Houston that could determine how the final weeks of the season will be played.
MICHIGAN (6-5): The win this week over Ohio was enormous for the Panthers, not just because they played well on both sides of the ball, but because it helped them claw closer to relevance in the Central. They need to follow that up with a win over St. Louis this week, and with both Ohio and Pittsburgh coming up before the season is over, this is a team that can write their own destiny. They just need to rediscover the formula that has worked for them over the past 5 seasons.
OAKLAND (6-5): We know that Tom Brady wants one more shot at the postseason, but we are just not sure Oakland has the team to do it, not after being demolished by Seattle and losing to Pittsburgh at home this week. They have a road game in Ohio in Week 13, and two more division games on the schedule, but they feel very much like a team that is going to end up at 8-8 and on the outside looking in.
OHIO (6-5): This week’s loss to the Panthers was a momentum killer. After beating Chicago in what was a huge statement game, they could not repeat the intensity needed to knock off the Panthers, and that puts them in this group and in a tough situation. They will face both the Machine and the Panthers again, back to back again, with a trip to Chicago in Week 14 and then a home game against Michigan. Do they need to sweep those games? Quite possibly.
ORLANDO (6-5): Orlando may benefit from the collapse of the Atlanta Fire. They have already gained a foothold, moving into 2nd place thanks to a tiebreaker over the Fire. Now they need to finish the job. That means no let down against New England, New Orleans, or Charlotte. Three wins in those 3 games and they well could be ready to punch their ticket to the postseason when they face the Fire in Week 16.
SAN ANTONIO (5-6): We have the sneaky feeling that the Gunslingers are just happy to be in this conversation. They have had two very nice outings, upsetting both Houston and Oklahoma to get here. Their final 5 games include 3 pretty tough outings, including this week’s game against Arizona, then a trip to Birmingham and a finale in Denver. That could be too much to ask for the 2nd year club, but even 2 wins in the next 5 puts them at a solid 7-9 record, which is certainly something to build on for Coach Long and a nice upgrade from last year’s 3-13 inaugural campaign.
Offseason Rumors Already Swirling
We are still 5 weeks away from the conclusion of the regular season, but that certainly has not stopped the rumor mill from priming for a busy winter. Rumors are swirling around any number of franchises, coaching rumors, draft priorities, even QB change rumors. Of course, the majority of these conversations focus on teams that are longshots for a playoff push, but surprisingly not all of them. Here is our list of the rumors that seem to be both persistent and intriguing as we enter the home stretch of the USFL season. Will any of them pan out? We shall see.
Charlotte Will Clean House This Winter
This one should shock no one. After all, the 0-11 Monarchs have been a disaster all year. We have already seen their starter benched as Jimmy Garoppolo has had a miserable 2021 campaign, throwing more than twice as many picks as touchdowns. Expect Charlotte to start at the top, relieving GM Roy Wentz of his duties along with Head Coach Vance Joseph. And while we think QB will certainly be a focal point this offseason, there are certainly plenty of holes to fill in this roster, including an ineffective run game, a porous O-line, and a secondary that lacks playmakers. Charlotte will likely rebuild around DE Chandler Jones, LB Rolando McClain, and DT Leki Fotu, but outside of those three, we could see a very different roster in 2022.
Maulers May Challenge Dalton with Rookie
Andy Dalton, the “Red Rifle” has been something of an institution in Pittsburgh since being named the starter in 2013, but in 9 seasons he has produced only 1 playoff season (2015). The Maulers are looking like a possible playoff team this year, but most of the credit is going to their solid defense, as the passing game is ranked 25th in the league at only 230 yards per game. So, what is the plan? Well, Dalton is signed through next year, which in our minds makes 2022 a very good time for a transition of the Maulers want to go another direction. Rumors have the Maulers very interested in a local product, Pitt QB Kenny Pickett. A 4-year starter for the Panthers, Picket has had modest numbers but has shown flashes. He led Pitt to their first ACC title in 2018. He had a stellar game in the Quick Lane Bowl in 2019, throwing or 361 yards and 3 scores against Eastern Michigan, and this past year, in a Covid-shortened season, he threw for over 2,400 yards and 13 touchdowns, helping Pitt reach the Top 25 rankings. A strong 2021 campaign for the senior QB and we could be seeing the Maulers reach out for the local star in the 2022 Territorial Draft. With a year left in Dalton’s contract, that would set them up for a big decision a year from now.
OBJ Headed OTD?
Is Odell Beckham Jr. headed “out the door” in New Jersey. The All-USFL receiver made some noise about his role and his team earlier in the year but has been mostly silent as the Generals embarked on the 8-game winning streak that now has them atop the NE Division. OBJ is in a contract year, so the time is right if he does want a change of venue. There will almost certainly be no shortage of teams interested in a receiver about to finish his 6th consecutive 1,000-yard season. OBJ has elite hands, good speed and is considered the model for body control thanks to a series of acrobatic catches over his career in New Jersey. Winning may have cooled his interest in leaving the Generals, but he also has to know that if he does enter the market, there is every chance he will get a record-setting contract for a wideout. That could well push the General’s big playmaker into free agency and could open up a feeding frenzy as teams try to land the outgoing and very talented receiver.
Former Bull LB Mike Vrabel a Hot Coaching Candidate
Current Seattle DC and former Jacksonville Bull legend Mike Vrabel is considered one of the hottest coaching prospects in the league. The 11-time All-USFL linebacker, who is second only to Brian Urlacher in career tackles, has become a rising star in the coaching world and could be a name on a lot of team’s short lists after the success of his Dragon defense in Seattle this year. Vrabel retired from the playing field after the 2014 season, joining the Bulls’ coaching staff as a strength and conditioning coach for 2015. By 2018 he was the LB position coach for the Bulls before taking the DC position with Coach Mike Riley and the Seattle Dragons in 2019. The Seattle defense struggled a bit in 2019 but showed marked improvement in last year’s 9-7 Wild Card campaign. This year, the squad has improved to Top 5 status, highlighted this week with a masterful game against the Tampa Bay Bandits.
That quick rise, as well as the respect shown by Seattle players towards their former-superstar-player-turned-coach has Vrabel on a lot of team’s short lists as they look for a new leader. We would not be shocked at all to see Jacksonville try to bring Vrabel back if they decide to let Winston Moss go, but Vrabel could also be in consideration in Charlotte, Portland, San Diego, or Orlando, if those clubs decide to make a change. Heck, if Houston legend Wade Phillips steps down, as many now believe he will, we could even see Vrabel headed to the Gamblers. His dance card will be busy come the offseason, though teams may have to wait as Seattle looks poised for a deep playoff run.
Weak QB Class makes DE the Potential Heart of the 2022 Draft
With the 2021 NCAA season still over 2 months away, there is a lot of room for growth, but at present, there is currently no QB with a 1st round draft grade in the 2022 Draft Pool. That will almost certainly change, but what we see right now is a top tier of seniors and anticipated junior departures that focuses on receivers, cornerbacks, linemen, and particularly edge rushers. From Georgia’s Trevon Walker to Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, this is looking like a draft that could be heavy on pass rushers, defenders, and receivers, and not on passers themselves.
Currently, in their “way too early” draft rankings, both Mel Kiper and Mike McShay have 5 defensive ends listed with 1st round grades, including the two named above. They also have 2 corners as potential Top 10 picks (LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr. and Cincinnati’s Sauce Gardner) as well as a handful of receivers with 1st or 2nd round grades, led by USC’s Drake London and Ohio State’s duo of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. With no QBs listed in the Top 30 for either draft analyst, this very well could be a year where free agent QBs, possible trades, and possible NFL imports are the key to improving the QB position, while teams use the draft on players who can either catch those passes or stop the passing game.
Myles Jack & Clay Matthews Both Expected to Hit Free Agent Pool
It is not unusual for veteran defenders to use free agency to both improve their financial situation and their chance at a title. This year looks to be no different as both Myles Jack of San Diego and Clay Matthews of Dallas have rejected early deals from their current teams and appear fully ready to hit the free agent marketplace. Jack, at only 26 and coming off a nice, but certainly not eye-popping rookie deal, is excepted to seek at least double his current compensation, with significant guaranteed money. After 5 years with the Thunder, in which he has proven to be one of the most disruptive players in the league, as well as an outstanding edge rusher, Jack is looking to cash in, and, almost certainly, hopes to find himself on a team that is ready to compete right away. Matthews, at 33, is likely headed into his final deal, and while he certainly could be leaving a good situation if he steps away from Dallas, there is no doubt that the veteran MLB, one who topped 100 tackles every year from 2010-2018, will get paid to be the veteran leader of a defense somewhere in the league. The question is both how many years he has left to take on that role, and what team gives him both a payday and a real chance at a title? Getting that combo could be tougher for Matthews than the younger and more explosive Jack.
Tannehill: Locked In or Trade Bait?
Yes, over the past 2 weeks, with New England getting two surprise wins, Ryan Tannehill’s stock has gone up. And perhaps that was the reason why New England went out and dealt to bring in NFL import Jameis Winston from Birmingham. But the question is whether they have boosted Tannehill with the hope that he can be their long-term solution, or if his recent success will make him a more coveted commodity in a poor draft year for QBs. Rumors have New England possibly giving Winston some late season starts as a way of testing whether they need to sign Tannehill to a long-term deal, or to a very trade-friendly extension of his current deal. If Winston does see game action, and if he proves successful, there is every possibility that New England would shop Tannehill around in hopes of acquiring more draft capital. If Winston struggles, then the Steamrollers could offer Tannehill a more long-term deal and see what value Winston would have on the free agency market. What seems clear is that there is little chance we will see both in Foxboro next year.
Tom Brady “Goodbye Tour” Almost Certain
At the age of 45, most QBs are already 10 years into their post-football careers, broadcasting, selling insurance, owning a car dealership, or just playing golf. Tom Brady is still getting under center in Oakland. But by every account, the 2021 season is the swan song for the 2-time USFL Champ and 3-Time Super Bowl Winner. Brady, after a combination of NFL and USFL seasons that spans 20 years, is expected to retire this year. That reality has been known in Oakland for some time and is one of the primary reasons that they wooed, selected, and signed Cal QB Davis Mills in the 2021 draft. Mills, who has appeared in only 1 game for mop up duty this year, is the anticipated heir apparent for Brady in Oakland. With Jimmy Garoppolo traded to Charlotte in the offseason, it was clear that Mills was going to be given every chance to take on the role. But, in an interesting twist, Oakland also signed U. of Texas QB Sam Ehlinger in the same draft. So now they have 2 QBs going into their 2nd seasons and could well have a QB competition on their hands.
Ehlinger has spent most of the season on the Practice Squad, with veteran Kellen Moore as the 3rd QB for the Invaders, so the expectation is that Mills certainly has the upper hand. If Oakland, currently 6-5, were to slip out of playoff contention, we might see Mills get a start or two just to confirm that the Invaders are ready to go into 2022 with him at the helm, but as of right now, with the Invaders still very much in the mix, that seems unlikely, so we could see Oakland have to make a decision based purely on their backup QB’s practice habits and offseason training.
Week 13 offers only 5 divisional games, but a lot of games with playoff implications, starting on Friday, when a pair of 7-4 clubs very familiar with each other face off. Philadelphia heads across the state for a Keystone Clash against Pittsburgh, with both clubs hoping to fight their way into a playoff spot. The second Friday game is a divisional clash between 5-6 Dallas and division-leading Denver. A win here by the Gold and Dallas may well fall out of playoff contention.
Saturday starts with what may be a must-win game for the Atlanta Fire, and a tough one as they head up to New Jersey to battle the Generals. New Jersey has not lost a game since early April, having won 8 in a row to reach the top of the NE Division, so a very tough task for QB Pat White and the Fire. Saturday also has an interdivisional battle of 6-5 clubs as Oakland heads to Ohio, as well as divisional battles with New Orleans visiting Birmingham, Washington going up the Beltway to Baltimore, and St. Louis visiting Michigan.
Sunday features the two top teams in the league, with Tampa Bay hosting Portland and Seattle taking on the San Diego Thunder. We will also have a battle of playoff hopefuls when Arizona makes their first trip to San Antonio since the rebirth of the Gunslingers. The nightcap features another battle from that cluster of 6-5 and 5-6 teams as Las Vegas visits Houston to finish up the week.
FRI @ 8pm ET Philadelphia (7-4) @ Pittsburgh (7-4) NBC
FRI @ 8pm ET Dallas (5-6) @ Denver (8-3) ESPN/EFN
SAT @ 12pm ET Atlanta (6-5) @ New Jersey (8-3) ABC
SAT @ 12pm ET Los Angeles (5-6) @ Charlotte (0-11) FOX
SAT @ 4pm ET Oakland (6-5) @ Ohio (6-5) ABC
SAT @ 4pm ET New Orleans (4-7) @ Birmingham (7-4) FOX
SAT @ 8pm ET Washington (4-7) @ Baltimore (6-5) NBC
SAT @ 8pm ET St. Louis (4-7) @ Michigan (6-5) ESPN/EFN
SUN @ 12pm ET New England (4-7) @ Orlando (6-5) ABC Regional
SUN @ 12pm ET Memphis (5-6) @ Jacksonville (3-8) ABC Regional
SUN @ 12pm ET Portland (4-7) @ Tampa Bay (9-2) FOX
SUN @ 4pm ET Chicago (7-4) @ Oklahoma (4-7) ABC
SUN @ 4pm ET San Diego (3-8) @ Seattle (9-2) FOX Regional
SUN @ 4pm ET Arizona (6-5) @ San Antonio (5-6) FOX Regional
SUN @ 8pm ET Las Vegas (5-6) @ Houston (6-5) ESPN/EFN
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