What a week! We had one of the greatest games in football history, a game that set a defensive mark that may never be repeated (at least Kerry Collins hopes so). We had upsets that shook up the playoff chase, with Birmingham, Texas, and Seattle shaking things up. We also saw Baltimore make a statement against the Division-leading Stars. Memphis leapfrogs Nashville to take over the South, and Tampa Bay makes life difficult for the Jacksonville Bulls, pulling off the road win in a brutal Florida Derby game. So much to talk about, so much at stake. This is late season football at its best.
GLORY 28 MACHINE 31
In a wild week with a lot of really strong contenders, there was no doubt which was the Game of the Week, as we saw an amazing game in Soldier Field. Kerry Collins survived a league record 12 sacks to throw 4 touchdowns, but Chicago had enough to finally get over the hump and knock off a healthy Glory squad. After several years of near misses and bad losses, Chicago finally stepped up against Ohio and knocked them off when everything was on the line. Yes, Chicago did beat Ohio last year, but that was an Ohio Glory squad without Kerry Collins. This year the Machine went up against the full force of the Glory and still found a way to win, and to brutalize Collins at the same time.
The plan was simple, turn as many pass plays as possible into plays were Kerry Collins was running instead of standing in the pocket. Chicago would stunt, blitz, and overwhelm the Glory offensive line. Anthony Weaver would have a career day with 5 sacks on the day, while his linemates Ted Washington and Israel Rayborn each added 2 more sacks, and the linebackers got theirs as well. It is a small miracle that Collins was even able to finish the game, much less that he was able to have a 427-yard, 4 TD day while under such a barrage.
That production by Collins meant that Chicago also needed big days from their offense, and they got them, with 121 yards from Micheal Turner and another 83 yards on the ground from rookie Maurice Clarett. That run duo forced Ohio to bring players up to the line, which is exactly what Curtis Conway and Donald Driver wanted to see. The two combined for 13 receptions and 152 yards through the air.
The game itself had everything you want to see, big hits, big plays, back and forth action, a late comeback, and an overtime game winner for the home team. Tim Seder had an amazing game, connecting on 5 field goals to keep Chicago on pace with Ohio’s offense. And throughout the game, the scoreboard had trouble keeping track.
It began with a 21-point first quarter, Chicago opening up the scoring only 4:32 into the game as Michael Turner pounded the ball into the endzone on the Machine’s first drive. Ohio responded with a long drive ending with a Joey Galloway TD. After a Chicago punt, Ohio again marched right down the field, despite the pressure from Chicago’s line, scoring on a short swing pass to Eddie George.
But as the 2nd quarter began, Chicago’s pressure scheme started to pay dividends. Three separate Ohio drives ended with Kerry Collins on his butt and a failed 3rd down play. Over the 2nd and third quarters, Chicago was able to flip the score, from 14-7 to 22-14 thanks to that defense, a safety with Collins sacked in the endzone by Weaver, two Tim Seder field goals and a George TD pass to Conway. Had Chicago been able to score TDs on more of those drives, the game could have been over, but even with their dominance over 2 quarters their lead was only 8.
That lead became 2 when Ohio finally got back on the board. Early in the 4th, Collins found Troy Brown but when the 2-point conversion failed, the Glory still found themselves down by two. Chicago again kicked a field goal and made it 5, but five points is not really a big help in the USFL, and that is what Ohio proved only 2 minutes later.
With 1:47 on the clock, Collins found Reche Caldwell for his 4th TD of the day, and when the 2-pointer was good this time it meant Ohio was back on top, and with a 3-point lead at 28-25. Chicago would need to call on Tim Seder again. Jeff George got Seder in range for a 48 yard kick, but a false start on the right tackle forced Seder back to the Ohio 36 yard line to try for a 53-yard kick. Seder did not fail, and the game was sent to overtime with only 16 ticks left on the clock.
In overtime, it would again be on the Chicago defense to keep the Machine in the game. Ohio won the toss, and started with the ball, but just as they approached midfield, the O-line got sloppy. On 2nd and 7 Collins rolled right into the waiting arms of Rayborn, creating a 3rd and 13. Chicago opted to drop 7, rushing only 4, but that gamble paid off, as Anthony Weaver, who already had 4 sacks on the day, stunted around the DT, slipped past Eddie George’s blocking attempt, and caught Collins’s sleeve, forcing the QB to the ground as he fell to the ground with a handful of jersey.
The defensive stop was all the Machine would need. They took the punt, marched it down to the Ohio 20 and brought Seder back out to kick once again. The league leader in points did his job once again, giving Chicago the win, and a win that now makes them the frontrunner for not only the Central Division, but for the top seed in the entire Eastern Conference. A huge win for Chicago, and potentially a turning point for the power dynamic in the USFL.
FEDERALS 20 GENERALS 23
It took New Jersey 59 minutes and 28 seconds to get the lead on the Federals, but they had it when the whistle blew and that is all that matters. Curtis Enis rushed for 102, Deuce McCallister for 100. Deion Branch caught 8 balls for 112 yards but Mark Clayton had the last laugh, catching the game winner as time ran down. The win puts New Jersey even with the Feds at 7-5 and hoping to win out to get back to the postseason.
BANDITS 20 BULLS 12
A huge win for the Bandits if they want to win the Southeast. TDs from Travis Prentice and Kevin Johnson, not the biggest names on a talented Bandits offense, helped Spurrier’s squad steal the win. The defense came up big for Tampa Bay, picking off Jake Delhomme twice, including on the final drive of the game, when a desperation toss by Delhomme ended up in the hands of Samari Rolle.
STARS 10 BLITZ 42
How many times can we say a win was huge? In the case of the Blitz game against Philly, the word certainly fits, as the Blitz defense picked off Kurt Warner twice, shut down the Stars’ offense, and then just fed the ball to Ron Dayne. Dayne was a beast this week, rushing for 157 yards on only 20 carries, a 7.8 YPC average. His 3 TDs helped push the Blitz lead from a modest 14-3, up to 42-3 by the middle of the 4th. A big game for Baltimore’s belief that they are the best club in the division. The Blitz now move up to a tie with Philadelphia atop the Northeast.
KNIGHTS 7 STALLIONS 20
A stunning result in Birmingham as the Stallions simply shut down the Nashville offense. Craig Whelihan looked very raw against a zone defense scheme that seemed to confuse him at every turn. Frank Gore got 103 yards, but the offense simply could not keep possessions going. And while Birmingham’s 20 points on offense were hardly explosive, it was certainly enough as the Stallions knock Nashville out of first place.
OUTLAWS 13 GOLD 7
Another shocker led by an underrated defense as Texas simply did not let Denver get their bearings. It is rare for the Gold to put on a stinker at home, but the Outlaws were able to make Denver look weak in this one. T. J. Duckett was the offensive star of the day, rushing for 121 and a score, but the big star of the game was unquestionably Nathan Vasher, the Outlaw CB who picked off Brunell 3 times in the game.
GAMBLERS 16 WRANGLERS 9
Houston almost had the same fate befall them, but a late score from Antonio Freeman saves the Gamblers as they escape Tempe with a 7-point win. It was not a good game for Hasselbeck, who threw two picks, and an even worse game for Houston’s iffy run game, as they accounted for only 27 yards total on the ground. That is not playoff caliber football, but it is enough to outlast the Wranglers.
DRAGONS 28 EXPRESS 20
The Express had a shot to reach .500 and challenge the Invaders in the Pacific, but Seattle has not given up on the season yet, and their drive showed in this matchup with LA. A 59-yard Darren Sproles punt return and two Joe Montgomery TDs were not textbook offensive plays for the Dragons but they got the job done. Marques Tuiasosopo connected with TE L.J. Smith twice on the day, but it was not enough as LA drops to 5-7.
INVADERS 29 THUNDER 6
Oakland’s defense was on their game, limiting Aaron Brooks to a pretty putrid 15 of 40 day. And while the defense was on fire, the offense did enough, with Ricky Williams rushing for 119 yards. The problem for Oakland was getting the ball in the end zone. Oakland scored on 7 of 9 possessions, but 5 of those were field goals. That worked fine against Las Vegas, but they are facing Ohio next week.
BREAKERS 20 SHOWBOATS 24
With the Knights losing to Birmingham, the door was opened for Memphis to leapfrog Nashville and take over first place. They did just that, though it did not come easy as New Orleans played them tough. Memphis got 2 scores from backup HB Maurice Smith, who combined with Cadillac Williams to gain 98 yards rushing. With Heath Shuler out, that run game was essential. Bill Musgrave also reminded us that he is one of the league’s best backups, going 21 of 29 for the ‘Boats.
MAULERS 17 PANTHERS 36
Michigan moves to 7-5 and guarantees that they will not suffer another losing season with a big win against a short-handed Mauler squad. Jim Sorgi got he start again, but recently-signed Elvis Grbac also came in as Sorgi was ineffective. For Michigan, Drew Brees added 3 more TDs to his season totals, connecting with Coles, Ward, and Fred Jackson for scores. Jackson and Ladell Betts also scored on the ground as the Panthers looked very good in this one.
RENEGADES 18 CANNONS 27
Boston fell behind early as Orlando took an initial 10-0 lead after one quarter, but a 21-0 run including two Bledsoe to Ochocinco TD tosses was enough to put the Cannons up for good. Tiki Barber added another 131 to his league lead as he helped Boston run down the clock to end the game. Bledsoe did suffer 6 sacks, which would be bad if Collins had not suffered 12, but with an immobile QB, that is a risk that Boston has to protect against.
Chicago Pass Rush Makes History
The Chicago Machine have developed a reputation as one of the league’s best defenses, but what they accomplished on Sunday was unprecedented even for them. With a strategy that focused on getting Ohio QB Kerry Collins to move in and out of the pocket, trusting that the three time MVP was not a particularly good passer when on the run. The result was constant pressure, coming from the front 4 but also from a variety of blitzers on passing downs. The high pressure scheme produced an unbelievable 12 sacks on the day. Five of these came from the new league leader, DE Anthony Weaver, 4 more from DE Israel Rayborn and DT Ted Washington, and 3 additional sacks from blitzers from the LB corps and the defensive backfield.
The strategy had mixed results, as Collins still had over 400 yards passing, but what was seen on the field was a defense that made the run game difficult with constant stunts and blitzs, while also forcing Collins to make quick decisions, often dropping his vision from deeper routes to short receivers. The other big takeaway is that this strategy helped Chicago shut down multiple drives with big 3rd down sacks. While Ohio’s 28 points on the day is a good day for most clubs, their scoring was dampened enough for Chicago to keep pace and eventually win the game in overtime. For Kerry Collins, the grand total of 12 sacks, an additional 9 hits or knockdowns and the constant harassment made for a rough day, and with the loss, Ohio’s third in a row, the Glory fall out of first place, with Chicago gaining the top spot in the conference with the win.
Ron Dayne Powers Blitz to Huge Win
The Baltimore Blitz have been one of the surprise clubs of the USFL this season, with 2nd year QB Ben Roethlisberger improving by leaps and bounds over his rookie season and with a defense that is among the league’s stingiest, but the hero of this week’s victory over the Stars, a dominating 42-10 crushing of their division rival, was not a new face on the scene for the Blitz, but “Old Reliable”, halfback Ron Dayne. Dayne is not the fastest or most elusive back in the league. He is more of a runaway train who simply runs over opponents, sticking to a straight ahead running style and a lot of power in his legs to always fall forwards, often carrying tacklers with him.
This week, Dayne produced another big game, rushing for 157 yards on 20 carries, and taking the ball into the end zone three times. The 157 was his highest rush total of the year, having reached 147 in Week 6 and 145 in Week 2. Combined with a 97-yard, 2 score effort last week, this gives Dayne 5 TDs in the past 2 weeks. The effort shot Dayne up the rushing leaderboard, entering the Top 5 at #3 with 1,044 yards and assuring the former Wisconsin Badger his 5th 1,000 yard effort in 6 professional seasons. His total of 11 touchdowns for the year is a career high, and puts him only 1 behind Jacksonville’s Antowain Smith for the league lead in that category.
Partnered with Roethlisberger and TE Antonio Gates, Baltimore has managed to move into the Top 10 in yards per game despite having what many consider one of the league’s weakest receiving groups (Darnerien McCants leads all wideouts with 55 catches for 637 yards, both behind Gates’s numbers). And while the defense, ranked #1 in the league in scoring and 2nd overall in yards allowed, is certainly the legitimate focus of most media attention in the Charm City, Ron Dayne deserves some attention as well, as he is keeping Baltimore’s run-first, grind-it-out offense in games and on the field.
Memphis and Houston Benefit from Big Upsets
Other than perhaps the bookmakers in Las Vegas, no one was more excited or benefitted more from this week’s upsets than the Showboats and Gamblers. Memphis, which has trailed the Nashville Knights in the standings all season, and which just last week reached .500, now finds itself on top of the Southern Division, a vantage point that no one saw for them this year. Knocking off the New Orleans Breakers at home in a hard-fought 24-20 victory, the Breakers could not have expected to see Birmingham, which had only 1 win on the season, upending the Nashville Knights, but that is exactly what happened at Legion Field. The loss pushes Nashville down to 6-6 and allows the 6-5-1 Showboats to control their own destiny. With only 2 weeks left in the season, Memphis can lock up the division title with two more wins. They face a very tough Jacksonville squad in Week 13, and then the likely deciding game of the season, a road trip to Nashville, which in all likelihood will be a title clash for both clubs, with the winner taking the Southern Division.
Houston also benefitted this week from a major upset as division-leading Denver, who punched their playoff ticket in Week 11, fell victim to a post-clinching malaise, and failed to show up against Texas, falling 13-7. The loss, paired with Houston’s victory over Arizona, allowed the Gamblers to leapfrog the Gold in the Southwest standings and again take control of their own destiny. But, just like Memphis, Houston’s path is tough. They face the Philadelphia Stars in Week 13, and then what again could be a division-title match in NRG Stadium as the Gold will come to Houston to finish up the season.
In both cases, the games in Week 14 are likely to determine the winners of each division, but the games in Week 13 could prove pivotal. If either Denver or Nashville lose this next week, the Week 14 games could be far less impactful, but if all 4 clubs win, or if Houston or Memphis fall this week, then we are perfectly set up for some Week 14 drama.
Week 12 helped sort out a lot in the West, but kept the East very much a quagmire of teams that simply all have some claim to being post-season ready. Houston, Oakland and Memphis have joined Denver as postseason participants, each locking up a spot with 2 weeks to go. But, even with 4 teams in, all 4 divisions are still up for grabs. Denver and Nashville are right there, and LA is mathematically alive, which may be the only thing we can say about their 2-game deficit against Oakland.
Week 12 also removed several teams from playoff contention. Joining Birmingham on the outside are Arizona, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh and Orlando. Hard to believe, but the 3-9 Outlaws are technically still alive, but would need so much help to get in that it is all but impossible to see them qualify.
In the East, Chicago controls their own destiny and could lock up the #1 seed if the results next week go their way. Philadelphia and Tampa Bay also lock up their divisions with 2 wins, but a loss by either and we have several clubs still able to jump up and over them. Right now the Wild Cards are Ohio, Baltimore, and Boston, each with 8 wins, but with 4 clubs sitting only 1 game behind at 7-5, this is not likely to be settled until Week 14.
The wear and tear of along season has a way of impacting teams late in the year as players simply break down. We saw that this week with 8 players added to the IR in one week. In some cases it is the recognition that that risking reinjury is not worth bringing a player back, but with many on the list it is simply that the bumps and bruises have turned more serious and it is simply not possible for the player to continue toughing it out. A mix of playoff contenders and teams at the bottom of the standings as we look at the newly shut-down players for this season: Bulls G Joe Berger (neck), Knights LB Na’il Diggs (Achilles), Breaker G Terrance Metcalf (leg), Gamblers DT Rocky Bernard (MCL), Generals C Jeremy Newberry (Ankle), Thunder TE Jason Dunn (Biceps), Bandits LB Jonathan Vilma (Foot), and Maulers QB Alex Van Pelt (Back)
Others are still on active rosters, but with only 2 weeks left, could be out of the final games for their teams. This includes Birmingham QB Jason Campbell, who went out with a wrist injury in this week’s game. Ohio tackle Jerry Wunsch could miss 1-2 games with a pinched nerve, while Denver RT Jason Odom is out with a stress fracture. Memphis has Heath Shuler listed as Doubtful this week, which is not good as we head towards the season finale in 2 weeks. Nasvhille is also down a key player as SS Rodney Harrison is out this week with a shoulder injury. Arizona could be without Larry Fitzgerald, while Pittsburgh gets Charlie Batch back just as Jim Sorgi deals with a hip injury.
Looking at top draft prospects
Two weeks left in the regular season, and for many teams, thoughts of the offseason are already primary interests. We have already looked at some of the potential free agents or unprotected players for the expansion draft. This week we look at the rookie class of 2006. There is a lot of talent in this year’s class, and with the new rules removing the option to trade away Territorial Draft picks, we expect a lot of the top players to find their way into the Open Draft. The question, as always, is who will sign with the USFL and who will end up in the NFL.
Among the top players in every draft are the quarterbacks and this year we have three who could be top targets either in the T-Draft or the Open Draft. Vince Young of Texas would have been a natural choice for the Outlaws, and could still be, but the trade to bring Trent Dilfer to town may be a sign that Texas is not thinking of chasing the Longhorn QB. Meanwhile LA has had all kinds of QB issues this year, with injuries to both Cade McNown and Quincy Carter, but will that motivate the Express to pursue USC’s Matt Leinart, or with the Trojan QB be available to others in the Open Draft. The third potential 1st rounder is Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler. We know the Knights love Todd Collins, but he is no spring chicken, so perhaps laying out the red carpet for Cutler would be a good idea for the Knights.
At HB, there are at least 5 potential early picks, perhaps more. The biggest name in the HB class has to be USC’s Reggie Bush. With LA already pretty solid at the position, Bush could become available to the rest of the league and could be a great choice for either expansion club. Behind Bush we have Minnesota’s Laurence Maroney, Memphis’s DeAngelo Williams, LSU’s Joseph Addai, and another USC Trojan, Lendale White. Of all of these backs, the one obvious choice is Addai to the Breakers in the T-Draft because they just don’t have enough of a run game since giving up on Ricky Williams.
Our favorite receiver in the draft is not even a wide out, it’s TE Vernon Davis of Maryland. What is ironic here is that Maryland does not produce a lot of big name players, but the one year they do it is at a position that the Baltimore Blitz do not really need. They love their current starting TE, Antonio Gates, so they may just pass on the Terrapin TE. Among wideouts, the best of a pretty weak class appears to be Ohio State’s Santonio Holmes. Other potential early picks include Florida’s Chad Jackson, and Miami’s SInorice Moss.
O-Line tends not to be a first round focus for most teams, except when there is a bookend left tackle on the board, and that is exactly what we have with Uva’s D’Brickashaw Ferguson. We expect the Federals to go after the big man from the Cavaliers in the T-Draft, because true left tackles are a rare find. Other players who could get looks include tackles Winston Justice (USC), guard Davin Joseph of Oklahoma, and center Nick Mangold of the Buckeyes.
Edge rusher remains a high value pick, and this year’s best of the bunch could go overall #1. Either St. Louis or Atlanta will have the pick and we would not be shocked if NC State’s Mario Williams is that pick. Williams, as a Wolfpack player, is not on a protected team, so he will be there for the Open Draft, and that is a good option if the USFL expansion club can outbid the NFL Club that also selects Williams. Other potential early picks at DE include Kamerion Wimbley of FSU, Tamba Hali of Penn State, and Mathias Kiwanuka of BC.
At DT, the man getting all the attention is Oregon’s Haloti Ngata, but don’t sleep on FSU’s Broderick Bunkley as a 1st round option.
It is not a great LB group this year, but that does not mean that there is no talent to be had. Ohio State’s MLB A.J. Hawk would be a first rounder in any year. Beyond him we have Ernie Sims of FSU, Chad Greenway of Iowa, and DeMarco Ryans of Alabama.
At the DB spots, Texas could make a bid on Longhorn Michael Huff, and we could also see Ohio State’s Donte Whitner being protected by the Glory. Tye Hill of Clemson and Antonio Cromartie of FSU are also good options, especially in the latter half of the opening round.
Week 13’s interconference showdowns may seem like a breather between the divisional slates of Week 12 and Week 14, but these games could go a long way to locking teams into or out of playoff positions. A loss this week could spell doom for many teams, while a win, and a division rival loss, could propel a team up the playoff standings. All 12 games have some potential impact on the playoffs, but we see them as two different types, first a battle between playoff hopefuls, and second, a chance for a non-playoff team to play spoiler.
Battles Between Playoff Hopefuls
New Jersey (7-5) @ Denver (8-4): Denver’s upset loss to Texas cost them the lead in the Southwest, but before they face Houston next week, they have to get past the defending champs. New Jersey is right back in the hunt at 7-5 but essentially has to win both games left on their schedule to have any shot at a repeat.
Philadelphia (8-4) @ Houston (8-4): Neither of these teams can afford a loss this week. Philadelphia is tied with Baltimore for 1st in the Northeast, but has New Jersey and Washington right there as well. Houston has the 1-game lead in the Southwest, but if they can win this week, they may just lock up the division and the top seed.
Jacksonville (7-5) @ Memphis (6-5-1): The Showboats have clawed their way up to the top spot in the South, but one slip up and they could drop below Nashville again. Jacksonville is a game behind Tampa Bay and Boston, but a win, and some help, and they could again be atop the division.
Ohio (8-4) @ Oakland (7-5): The Glory looked unbeatable early, but have now lost 3 games in a row and gave up 12 sacks (12!!!) last week. They need this win. The Invaders lock up the Pacific with the win, and they certainly want to make a statement that they are a legit contender by knocking off the Glory in Oakland.
Michigan (7-5) @ Los Angeles (5-7): Both teams need wins to avoid elimination. It is likely to take 9 wins to make the postseason in the East, so Michigan cannot lose this one. LA falling to 4-8 means they could find themselves behind Seattle or New Orleans for a Wild Card and lose any shot at catching Oakland for the division.
Spoiler Games
Baltimore (8-4) @ Arizona (2-10): The Blitz are right there with Phillly. They need to not look past the Wranglers as they prepare for a tough Week 14 game against arch rival Washington.
Tampa Bay (8-4) @ New Orleans (4-7-1): The Breakers have slim playoff hopes, but Tampa Bay could conceivably win the South with a victory here. It would require losses by both the Bulls and Cannons, but stranger things have happened.
Orlando (4-7-1) @ Nashville (6-6): If the Knights want to catch Memphis, and make next week’s game a division title match, they cannot look past the Renegades. Orlando started the year strong, but have slid in the second half. Will they want to go out strong, or are they playing out the string?
Boston (8-4) @ Birmingham (2-10): This one looks like an easy win for the Cannons, but Birmingham will be inspired to play their best in Lawrence Dawsey’s last home game. Boston had better be prepared for a battle.
Washington (7-5) @ Texas (3-9): If the Feds want any chance at a playoff spot, much less the division, they had better not look past the Outlaws. Texas knocked off Denver last week with a defensive gem. If they can do it in Denver, they can do it again at home in San Antonio.
Pittsburgh (4-7-1) @ Seattle (4-8): You would think that this matchup of 4-win teams would be completely without any playoff impact, but the Western Conference very easy could have a 6-win team getting in, maybe even a 5-win team, so Seattle is still playing for a playoff spot. If LA stumbles, Seattle could be right there. Pittsburgh can only wish the East were in the same boat, but they are out of contention and playing only for pride.