The New Orleans Breakers are making a run. Their win over Memphis this week is their 4th in a row and has them 1 game behind the Showboats with a chance to catch them and steal the Southern Division next week. Chicago and Houston played an epic overtime game, Seattle had the fire going against the Invaders, and Charlotte crushed any hope Ohio had of a late run for a Wild Card. It was a wild week across the league, with Birmingham and Pittsburgh both landing major upsets while LA saw the return of Seneca Wallace under center. A wild week, with only 1 left in the regular season. No time to waste. To the recaps!!
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS 20 NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS 21
Was it really only a month ago that the Memphis Showboats had a 3-game lead on Nashville and New Orleans was sitting at 4-7? Well, don’t look now, but the Breakers have won 4 in a row, and Memphis has dropped 3 of 4, nearly completely losing their lead. It now stands at only 1 game over the Breakers and with the win this week, New Orleans is in position to snag the division if Memphis cannot get a win next week. How did this happen?
The first thing we have to recognize is that New Orleans has found themselves. Yes, two of their wins in the past 4 weeks were against New Jersey and Birmingham, but they now have also knocked off Las Vegas and Memphis, so this team is not a fluke of scheduling. The Breakers have improved their defense, moving up to #4 in the league for yards allowed, and Eli Manning is leading a Top 10 passing offense with his young receiving corps. Matt Forte is on the verge of 1,000 yards (he needs 72 in the final week) and the young receiving corps of Bowe, Doucet, Pathon, and Avery are providing their QB with a lot of targets.
In this game, all phases of the Breakers had to be on their game to get the W. The defense held Memphis to only 9 first downs and an 0-for-9 record on third down. The offense survived 3 turnovers thanks to a 21 of 31 day for Manning and a 4.1 yard per carry day for Forte. And just because you see 21 points on the New Orleans scoreboard, don’t assume it was 3 good TD drives. How about 4 field goals, a safety, and a Manning to Bowe TD pass? That is one way to end up at 21-20.
Memphis struggled all game, as they have recently, to protect Favre, who was sacked 5 times by the Breakers. The 3-time MVP completed only 11 of 27 passes, and while that was enough to get them a 20-18 lead with 10 minutes left in the game, it was not good enough to come back after once last David Greene kick gave the Breakers a 1-point lead. Down 21-20 with 5:39 left, Memphis had time to get that needed field goal, but on two different possessions, New Orleans held them short of the 50. The first time the Showboats opted to punt, but with time running low on their second possession, they were forced to go for it on 4th an 11, and when Ahmed Plummer disrupted a pass to Pierre Garçon, it was over for the Showboats, who stumble for a 3rd time in 4 weeks.
Memphis will be at home next week against 2-13 Birmingham, and a win will still nab them the division and the #3 seed, but a loss and they have to hope that Nashville, their arch rival, can give them the division by upsetting the Breakers in New Orleans. If not, the Breakers could claim the division and send Memphis to a road game in the Wild Card round.
WASHINGTON 28 BOSTON 32
A wild game in Beantown as Adrian McPherson again looked like the real deal, throwing for 286 yards and 2 scores despite being sacked 6 times by an aggressive Federal defense. Washington had their shots as well, with Deuce McCallister running wild for 150 yards and 3 scores. The Feds had the lead early in the 4th, but a late McPherson TD toss to Joe Jurevicius put Boston up for good, spoiling any hopes Washington had to catch Philadelphia for the division.
JACKSONVILLE 24 TAMPA BAY 17
Tampa Bay saw Daunte Culpepper back under center, but as expected Coach Spurrier rested several starters, including Willis McGahee, who had only 2 carries in the game. Jacksonville took advantage, using Antowain Smith’s 126 yards to upend the Bandits, who have nothing to lose after locking up the #1 seed. Expect to see Culpepper in a baseball cap next week, as Spurrier rotates players to rest before the bye week.
HOUSTON 33 CHICAGO 30 OVERTIME
A wild one in Soldier Field between two serous contenders in the West. Houston came back from an early deficit to take a 30-20 lead early in the 4th, but Chicago bounced back, with Kyle Orton connecting on 3 TD passes in the game and Tim Seder connecting on a 52-yard kick to send the game to overtime. In the extra period, Shaun Alexander took advantage of a tired Machine D to help put Houston in position to win. Dan Carpenter’s kick went in, and since Chicago had possessed the ball first in overtime, that kick gave the W to the visitors.
OAKLAND 7 SEATTLE 26
Seattle, still battling for a wild card berth, had more energy and more focus in this one. While they allowed 124 yards to Ricky Williams, they kept Oakland out of scoring range most of the game and built up a 23 point run in the second half to take this game going away. Byron Leftwich only completed 9 of 20 passing, but a solid run game with Dillon and Sproles helped power the Dragons to their 9th win.
ARIZONA 3 LAS VEGAS 24
The Wrangler caught some flack for benching Jake Plummer, an apparent move to protect the valuable trade commodity during the final weeks of a lost season. That decision helped Las Vegas stay competitive for the final Western wild card, easily beating the Colt Brennan-led Wranglers. Arizona was held to 6 first downs and 140 total yards by the Thunder defense, while Marshawn Lynch and Earnest Graham combined for 121 yards in the win.
CHARLOTTE 10 OHIO 6
Thunderstorms disrupted the game in Columbus and created a swampy turf for this game, but the Monarchs did not mind the slow field at all. With Kerry Collins dealing with a sore shoulder from a collision in practice on Tuesday, Chris Redman got the start for Ohio. That and the rain helped Charlotte contain the Ohio offense and sneak away with a 1-point win.
TEXAS 20 DENVER 13
A surprise in Denver as the Gold looked out of synch against an improving Texas squad. It did not help that Matt Leinart was knocked out midway through the game, but Texas also put together a solid game, with Joe Flacco throwing for 2 scores and the Outlaw defense holding Denver to only 3 third down conversions in 14 attempts.
PITTSBURGH 30 MICHIGAN 7
Another home upset as the Maulers came into Ford Field and shocked the Panthers. Brian Griese was picked off twice while Cody Pickett looked good with a 23/33 day and 2 scoring tosses. WR Vince Jackson had his best game of the year, catching 9 passes for 114 yards and a score. The Mauler D also did their part, causing Michigan to go 0-for-7 on third down and commit 3 turnovers in a sloppy game for a playoff-bound team.
BIRMINGHAM 20 NASHVILLE 13
It seems clear that Nashville’s fall from playoff contention has let all the air out of the tires. Birmingham got 112 yards and a score out of rookie Felix Jones, but this game was all about the mistakes and lack of focus for the Knights, especially on offense, an offense without Frank Gore in the backfield. Leon Johnson did alright, rushing for 103 on the day, but the whole team was just flat.
ORLANDO 23 ATLANTA 10
Orlando went down to their 3rd QB of the season when Matt Cassel was knocked out of the game, but still managed to outplay the Tyler Thigpen-led Fire. Marion Barber, Jacob Hester, and Najeh Davenport combined for 129 yards rushing to help power Orlando to a 2-score win.
BALTIMORE 36 NEW JERSEY 3
This season cannot end fast enough for New Jersey as they are held below 10 points for the 3rd week in a row and the 7th time this year. This one was over by the half, where Baltimore held a 26-0 lead. Alex Van Pelt even got some snaps in the 4th it was so bad. Ron Dayne got back into the Top 5 rushers with a strong 115-yard day and Ben Roethlisberger connected for scores with Dayne and Tory Holt in this laughable game.
PORTLAND 15 PHILADELPHIA 22
The Portland playoff hopes withered as Philly held court at home with a solid defensive performance that limited the Stags to only 151 total yards. While the Stags struggled, Kurt Warner and the Stars offense looked to be in rhythm, with the veteran QB throwing 3 touchdowns and connecting on 24 of 28 attempts.
LOS ANGELES 27 ST. LOUIS 8
Seneca Wallace returned under center and sparked one of LA’s better offensive showings of the year. It helped that Jones-Drew and Betts combined for 140 yards rushing, and that the defense had no difficulty containing Sage Rosenfels, who got a surprise start for the Skyhawks.
New Orleans Making Late Run at Southern Title
What the Breakers are doing down the stretch is one of the better stories of the year around the league. From 4-7 to 8-7 in four weeks and quite possibly saving Mike Nolan’s job in the process. If the Breakers knock off Nashville next week and get a little help from Birmingham, they could actually finish the season at 9-7 and sitting atop the Southern Division, something that seemed entirely implausible a month ago.
At the center of the Breakers’ late season success is Eli Manning, who seems to be finally paying off on the potential everyone saw at Ole Miss. During the streak, Manning has thrown for over 900 yards and has avoided turnovers, with only 2 picks in his last 4 games. His success has opened lanes for Matt Forte, who has over 300 yards in the 4-game streak, and the defense is also doing its part. Unheralded DE Corey Sears is in double digits for sacks and DT John Thornton is putting up numbers you almost never see from an interior lineman, leading the team with 88 tackles, just ahead of linebackers Bradie James and Daryl Smith.
There is little flash to this team, and they are still very young, but they have found a way to win, and found it just in time to make a dramatic run from obscurity into a position where they control their own destiny. A win next week and they are in the postseason, possibly as a division champion.
End of Year Benchings Anger Fans
Look, we get it. Your team is not going anywhere this postseason. Your coach could well be headed out the door, and the owners want you to test out some of the young players and protect the high cost ones on your roster. But as a fan of a USFL team in that position, it is no fun to go to a game and see the team’s biggest stars sitting out with 2 weeks to go. That is exactly what happened this week as Arizona kept Jake Plummer out of their game in Las Vegas, as St. Louis protected Jeff Blake by starting Sage Rosenfels, and as Orlando opted not to bring Calais Campbell back to the active roster, despite an apparent clean bill of health.
Expect even more of the same next week, when we can certainly expect Tampa Bay, and very possibly Philadelphia, Denver, Baltimore ,Washington, and Houston to rest some stars ahead of the playoffs. Likewise, don’t be surprised if the Stallions, Generals, Wranglers, Outlaws, Skyhawks, and Fire also try to protect players in what will be a meaningless game for them. They will scout out some of the 3rd stringers, give limited reps to the starters, and prepare for next year. Nothing you can do about it. It is a part of the game, and from a competitive standpoint it is not great for the fans, but it makes sense at the same time. So, as we look at Week 16, we will almost certainly find ourselves focusing on the teams and the games featuring teams that need that W, to lock up a division, to snag a Wild Card, or even just to finish at 8-8 instead of 7-9.
Week 16 League Leader Races
Along with playoff spots, there are, as always, a few statistical races as players try to finish #1 in a variety of statistical categories. Brett Favre has a healthy 500 yard lead among passers with Byron Leftwich too far back to catch up now, but Favre currently trails Kerry Collins with 27 TD’s to Collins’s 28, and if Collins is out again, Favre could finish the year with all 3 top passing categories: yards, TDs and QB Rating.
The rushing title is Deuce McCallister’s to lose, with a hefty 95 yard lead over T. J. Duckett. We don’t see this one changing hands in Week 16. The same is not true for receptions, where Las Vegas’s Matthew Hatchette has all but guaranteed that he will make up the small difference separating him from league leader Peerless Price’s 108 catches. Chad Ochocinco has no worries about his lead in yardage, a solid 290 yard advantage over Tory Holt.
On defense, the big race is for sacks, as it usually is. Chicago’s Anthony Weaver and Birmingham’s Mike Rucker are both tied at 18 apiece, and don’t forget the 3 players sitting at 17. If Jason Babin, Kavika Pittman, or Santana Moss can have a big game, they could leapfrog Weaver and Rucker.
Finally, we have 4 DB’s sitting at 6 picks for the year, one behind league leader Jamar Fletcher. If Ed Reed, Patrick Surtain, Samari Rolle or Mike Doss can get 2 picks this week, they too could end up in 1st place. A lot to watch, even if not every game has deep playoff impact.
Several races to discuss, several outcomes to monitor in Week 16. Let’s get to the big ones.
Memphis can win the Southern Division with a victory against Birmingham. If they do, they are still locked into the #3 slot, meaning a home playoff game against the #6 seed the week after.
New Orleans can lock up the #6 seed with a win against Nashville, and possibly jump to #3 if the Stallions upset Memphis. That is the difference between a home Wild Card game and a road one. And what is ironic is that as long as both qualify, the Showboats and Breakers would absolutely meet each other in the Wild Card round, either in Memphis or in the Super Dome.
IF New Orleans falters against Nashville, believe it or not the Bulls could actually leapfrog over them on a tie breaker. A loss would make New Orleans 6-6 in the conference. A win by Jacksonville over Charlotte and the Bulls would be 8-6 in the conference, so the edge goes to the Bulls. After the world already attended Jacksonville’s funeral, it would be odd to discover that they are still alive.
Boston, despite an equal 7-8 record, cannot catch either team, due to a poor 4-7 conference record.
In the West, Seattle can lock up the 6th playoff spot with a win in LA next week or with a Las Vegas loss. A win plus a Denver loss and the Dragons are the #5 seed, not that it matters much, both #5 and #6 will be on the road in the Wild Card round.
Now, if Seattle stumbles and the Thunder win at home against the Stags, then, by virtue of the two splitting their 2 meetings, Las Vegas would have the better divisional record and would sneak into that 6th spot.
Those are the games and outcomes to monitor this week. While on paper the matchup between Philadelphia and Michigan looks intriguing, we expect both teams to rest players and look vanilla in this one. Denver could also benefit from Houston resting some players ahead of their Wild Card game. We could also see a half-hearted game between the Federals and Blitz, although, by all calculations, the winner of that game will be the host of the Wild Card game between the two the very next week, so there is some incentive to get the W.
Some very dicey injuries this week, injuries that very well could linger into the postseason, but, of course, teams are being a bit elusive about the actual status of players just one week before the playoffs. There are several players listed as “Doubtful” this week who we believe could actually be out for several weeks, but no team wants to reveal their hand this early. Among the most concerning injuries are those of QB Matt Leinart in Denver (shoulder), linebacker Zeke Moreno for the Bandits, and DE Robert Mathis in Philadelphia. These three teams are saying that the players are out for Week 16 but do not want to speak to their availability for the playoffs.
Others who will miss the season finale for their teams include QB Kerry Collins (shoulder), WR Justin McCaerins (Achilles), LA wideout Keyshawn Johnson (knee), Federals SS Bob Sanders (finger), Houston WR Roy Williams (scratched cornea), and Oakland WR DeSean Jackson (concussion), though the last 3 are expected back in time for their team’s playoff runs.
Romeo Crenell Will Step Down After Week 16
A little bit of a Black Monday preemptive move as Coach Romeo Crennell of the 2-13 Generals has announced that he will step down from his position after Week 16’s season ender. Crennell took over the Generals from Bill Parcells after the 2005 season and immediately took the Generals to a league title. But, since then the Generals, having lost Tom Brady to the NFL, have spiraled from a contender to one of the weakest teams in the league. A lot of blame is pointed at the front office and the GM, but Crennell has also taken his share of abuse.
Rather than wait for the pink slip to come for him, Crennell cited philosophical differences as a reason to step down from the Generals’ job, hoping perhaps that he can catch on somewhere else. He has an impeccable resume as a defensive coordinator, but could also land as a head coach if a team believes that the myriad of issues in New Jersey were more structural and personnel related than coach-induced. We will see, but for now the New Jersey position becomes the second after Arizona’s open spot as the offseason coaching carousel starts spinning a bit early.
Stallions Won’t Make Statement on Austin’s Future
While the coaching situations in New Jersey and Arizona are now understood, Birmingham remains a mystery. Team officials have not been particularly chatty with the press about the situation after what can only be described as a disastrous season from CFL import Kent Austin. Birmingham, sitting at 2-13, is staring at the club’s worst season ever (2-12 in 2005 currently holds that mark). The team has not had a winning season since 2003 and has had 10 or more wins 3 times in the past 4 years. The hope had been that last season’s 5-9 mark would be the low water mark and that Austin’s arrival would herald a new beginning and an uptick in team fortunes, but at least in his first year that has not been evident.
With most in the organization acknowledging that the roster simply needs to be better, the biggest concern is that Austin does not seem to have been able to get strong efforts from the players he has. In several games the Stallions have seemed flat, disorganized, and sloppy. Austin has also not been able to commit to a quarterback, beginning the year with Jason Campbell as the starter, then switching to another CFL import, Dave Dickenson, and now, finishing the year with Anthony Wright at the helm. Campbell is likely to become a free agent as his rookie contract expires after Week 16, and the Stallions will almost certainly be a major player in the Jake Plummer sweepstakes, but will that be enough to allow Austin a 2nd year at the helm, or will concerns about his lack of offensive innovation, something expected from the CFL game, and defensive cohesion lead to him becoming only the 3rd one-and-done head coach in league history?
Free Agent Roundup
We mentioned that Jason Campbell is almost certainly joining the Free Agent pool in a week. With only 7 days left until 16 of 28 teams will see unsigned players hitting the free agent pool, we thought a quick roundup of the talent that is potentially available this offseason would be a worthy endeavor. Do keep in mind that all teams have 1 week left to come to a deal with any of these players, and that playoff teams get an extension as long as they keep winning, so there will be some names here who do not finally hit the market. But, for now, this is the pool we think teams can start planning for, presented position or group by group.
Defensive Back: A solid group including cornerbacks Michael Booker (BIR), James Trapp (POR), Terrell Buckley (NSH), Ray Mickens (SEA) and Ken Irvin (BIR), as well as safeties Eric Weddle (CHI), Corey Hall (BOS), Lawyer Milloy (TEX0 and Ketith Lyle (JAX). It must be said that there is a very good chance that both Buckley and Milloy will consider retirement, thinning the pool a bit, but still some good options here.
Linebacker: Again, retirement could significantly thin this group as three of the top names (Godfrey Miles of Seattle, Kevin Mitchell of Tampa Bay, and Michael Barrow of Nashville) are all 34 years old or older. Beyond that trio we have more late-career talent in Al Wilson (ORL), DeWayne Dotson (NOR), Dwayne Rudd (PIT), and Roman Pfifer (BOS). If you want younger talent at the position, the top prospects are likely A. J. Nicholson (BAL), Jeff Ulbrich (CHA), and Will Witherspoon (POR).
Defensive Tackle: The top name here is likely Arizona’s Jason Peter, though LA’s Igor Olshansky and St. Louis’s Pat Riley are also solid names. A player to watch may be Tampa Bay DT Ellis Wyms, who has really come on this year.
Defensive End: Without a doubt, St. Louis’s Santana Dotson (with 16 sacks this season) is the name to watch. If he does not resign this week, and if the 36-year old does not retire, he will almost certainly be the highest paid of the free agent edge rushers. After Dotson there is a dip, though you can get good quality if Orlando’s Israel Ifeanyi, New Orleans’s Corey Sears, or St. Louis’s Eddie Freeman all hit the market.
Offensive Tackle: A pretty deep group, which is a bit surprising considering the importance of the position. You have Memphis LT Anthony Clement, Portland’s 36-year old Korey Stringer, LA’s Kenyatta Jones, and Boston’s Stockar McDougle, all of whom could demand top dollar. Astute readers may notice we did not list Lomas Brown of Seattle in this group. It is expected, though not official yet, that the veteran LT will retire after this season.
Interior Line: Not quite as deep as the tackle position, but some names to watch include guards Chris Villarial (MGN0, Jeb Terry (NSH), Bill Ferrario (OHI) and Jamie Nails (BOS), as well as centers Jeremy Newberry (NJ), Gene McGuire (LA), and Aaron Graham (CHA).
Tight End: Atlanta does not seem to be able to reach a deal with Jim Kliensasser, making him the top pick in this group that also includes Johnny Mitchell, roland Williams, Matt Cushing, and Ricky Dudley. Other than blocking TE Bob Slowikowski, this entire group is over 30, so we are not talking about a 10-year fill-in, more like 3-4 at most.
Wide Receiver: Always a deep pool, simply due to the number of wideouts on each roster. Other than Texas WR Muhsin Muhammad, who could be a retirement prospect, this is largely a younger group, with several players like Javon Walker (JAX), Kassim Osgood (NJ), Ted Ginn Jr (BAL), Ben Obomanu (BIR), Santonio Holmes (OHI) and Jabar Gaffney (ORL) all still in their 20’s. James Thrash and Tim Dwight round out the top of the pool, both early enough in their 30’s that a 3-4 year deal seems reasonable.
Running Back: Before getting to the halfbacks, we have to say that the very much undervalued position of fullback is rich in this year’s group, with Obafemi Ayanbadejo, Deon Dyer, Theron Wilson, and Jerold Sewell leading a good group. At halfback, you will not find a stand-alone 1,000 yard rusher, but depending on your needs, there is help here. Want a 3rd down back with good ball skills? How about Kevin Faulk (HOU), Leon Johnson (NSH), or Musa Smith (MGN). Need a short yardage back? There is Ladell Betts (LA), Kenny Watson (SEA), and Reno Mahe (CHI), and for overall fill-in backup, the best of the pool is Rod Smart (ATL), with Correll Buckhalter and Julius Jones still options as well.
Quarterback: Perhaps the weakest group in the pool, with Jason Campbell likely the best option. Steve McNair could be available, but he is more likely to retire after an injury-plagued 2008. Beyond those two it is Backup City with Henry Burris (CHA), Tony Banks (LV), Jeff Garcia (LA), Ray Lucas (WSH), Quincy Carter (PIT) and Chris Simms (TEX) likely to be looking for work next year.
Special Teams: We won’t forget the kickers and punters, though they are often a tough commodity to figure out. Expect Orlando to let Neil Rackers try out the market, and Denver seems ready to part with Curtis Fries. Baltimore would like to resign Bill Grammatica, but it has not happened yet. As of today, no punters of significant value remain unsigned. Apparently teams value the ability to pin their opponents back.
No Friday game this week as the league tried to schedule games based on playoff possibilities and an attempt to avoid having games that impact each other at different times or days. Seven games on Saturday and another 7 on Sunday, with an odd choice for Sunday night.
SATURDAY @ 12pm St. Louis (3-12) @ Pittsburgh (7-8) ABC
SATURDAY @ 12pm Atlanta (4-11) @ Boston (7-8) FOX
SATURDAY @ 12pm Tampa Bay (13-2) @ Orlando (6-9) FOX
SATURDAY @ 4pm Seattle (9-6) @ Los Angeles (6-9) ABC
SATURDAY @ 4pm Portland (7-8) @ Las Vegas (8-7) FOX
SATURDAY @ 4pm Ohio (7-8) @ Oakland (12-3) NBC
SATURDAY @ 8pm Washington (10-5) @ Baltimore (10-5) ESPN
SUNDAY @ 12pm Birmingham (2-13) @ Memphis (9-6) ABC
SUNDAY @ 12pm Nashville (6-9) @ New Orleans (8-7) ABC
SUNDAY @ 12pm Jacksonville (7-8) @ Charlotte (6-9) FOX
SUNDAY @ 12pm New Jersey (2-13) @ Texas (5-10) FOX
SUNDAY @ 4pm Chicago (12-3) @ Arizona (1-14) ABC
SUNDAY @ 4pm Philadelphia (12-3) @ Michigan (11-4) FOX
SUNDAY @ 8pm Denver (9-6) @ Houston (11-4) ESPN
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