2010 USFL Week 16 Recap: Denver Has Rug Pulled Out From Under Them

Controversy mars the USFL’s final weeks as the Denver Gold are informed on Thursday, only 3 days before their season finale, that errors had been made in the calculation of seedings and that a loss, paired with a Houston win could produce not only a loss of the #1 seed, but a loss of the SW Division title. Across the league, two legendary coaches say goodbye, while a spate upsets and spoiler games impact the playoff pool with several key losses keeping teams from reaching the postseason. Meanwhile, Washington makes an emphatic statement about their status as contenders, Nashville wins the Southern title once again, and the Las Vegas Thunder win on the road to lock up a playoff berth. We will start with the scores, then review the bizarre situation surrounding the Denver Gold and their status. We will provide the scores in the order of the weekend’s games so you can follow along just as fans did all weekend.

BOSTON 15 OHIO 16

Coach Luginbill goes out with a win as the Glory eke out a 1-point victory against the Cannons. Rookie Tony Pike threw for 121 and Eddie George rushed for 103 as the Glory say goodbye to their longstanding head coach. Coach Luginbill announced his resignation in the post-game press conference, tearing up as he said that it was time to move on and wishing the organization and their fans well.

CHARLOTTE 38 TAMPA BAY 14

Not quite as storybook a finale for Coach Spurrier as the Carolina Monarchs spoiled his going away party. QB John David Booty got the start for Charlotte and went 21 of 30 for 219 yards as he plays for a chance to be the starter in 2011. The Monarchs sacked Daunte Culpepper 5 times and got TDs from both Fred Jackson and Robert Edwards as they handily defeated the Bandits.

MEMPHIS 24 BIRMINGHAM 14

Cadillac Williams rushed for 112 and Shonn Greene added two TD runs as the Showboats won a less-than-high-stakes rivalry game with the Stallions. Birmingham went with Anthony Wright at QB as they are clearly viewing the position as a priority for the offseason. The Stallions finish the year with the worst record in the league, and therefore will have first shot at a QB in the Open Draft if they so choose.

NASHVILLE 20 NEW ORLEANS 10

For the second year in a row the Breakers and Knights meet on the final week to determine who will win the Southern Division, and for a second year in a row, Nashville emerges victorious. Robert Meachem had a big day with 7 receptions for 118 yards, including the go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter. Down 10-6, Nashville scored the only points of the second half as they shut down Eli Manning and the Breakers in New Orleans to claim the title.

TEXAS 16 ARIZONA 23

The 4pm games highlighted the three teams that all sought a chance to earn a Wild Card berth with a win and a Las Vegas loss. All three would lose to non-playoff spoilers, ensuring that Las Vegas would make the postseason even before the Thunder faced off with Oakland on Sunday. Arizona did in the Texas Outlaws in the desert, using 96 yards from LaDainian Tomlinson and a defense that picked off Joe Flacco twice to spoil the day for the visitors from Texas.

SEATTLE 34 PORTLAND 24

Portland faced a rival at home on the season’s final week, and the Seattle Dragons treated this game as their Summer Bowl, upending the Stags to knock Portland out of playoff contention. Byron Leftwich threw for 264 and wo scores, both to Nate Burleson, as Seattle outpaced the Stags, thanks in part to 2 picks of A. J. Feeley. Portland drew the game to 27-24 early in the 4th, but a LaDell Betts TD run with 4:14 left, made it a 2-score game and the Stags simply could not find it in themselves to come back.

MICHIGAN 21 LOS ANGELES 37

Michigan was the third victim of spoilers on this Saturday, traveling out to LA and taking a loss to the Express. The Panthers went with Tyler Thigpen again at QB, and he had a solid outing with 3 TDs and a 22 of 35 day, but Mark Sanchez and the Express outperformed the Panthers. Sanchez threw for 3 scores and got help from the combo of Ray Rice and Maurice Morris, who added 115 yards rushing as LA earned their 5th win and removed any shot Michigan had of a playoff spot.

CHICAGO 17 ST. LOUIS 31

Chicago needed a win and a Pittsburgh loss to claim the Central crown, but early on Sunday they got neither. St. Louis got 93 yards and 2 scores from Antowain Smith as the Skyhawks earned their 5th win on the season, a franchise best in their first year under first year coach Bruce Arians. Chicago’s offense was out of synch all game, accounting for only 10 points, while St. Louis found ways to turn Chicago miscues into points. The loss means Chicago could only earn a Wild Card berth and will travel for their first playoff game.

PITTSBURGH 16 HOUSTON 33

With Chicago losing, the pressure was off Pittsburgh, which turned out to be a good thing as Houston was in no mood to be generous. Having received news that the SW Division and the top seed in the playoffs was not yet settled, the Gamblers went for blood, and they dominated the Maulers to win their 10th game in a row, and possibly a lot more.

PHILADELPHIA 22 ORLANDO 21

Coach Harbaugh said he wanted to use this game as a tune up for the postseason, while Orlando needed a win to have a shot in the SE Division. For most of the game it looked like Orlando would get their wish. They built up a 21-9 lead through three quarters, but with all the starters still in the game for the Stars, Philadelphia rallied in the 4th, getting two Warner to Dallas Clark TD’s in the final period to upend the Renegades. Orlando finishes 8-8 and out of playoff contention, while Philadelphia goes into their bye week with a new confidence that they can recover from a slow start.

BALTIMORE 7 DENVER 6

Denver, still reeling from the late news that their final game was not a meaningless affair, struggled to move the ball and were limited by Baltimore to two field goals. The Blitz were happy to take on the flustered Gold and use a win to lock up a Wild Card berth in the East. The only TD of the game, an Antonio Pittman 3-yard TD run, was enough for the Blitz to edge the Gold. The loss was doubly painful for Denver, as they lost not only the top seed in the postseason, but their division title as well.

WASHINGTON 19 NEW JERSEY 9

New Jersey needed a win to find themselves in the Wild Card hunt, but Washington could not afford to lose this one and they played like it was already the playoffs. Deuce McCallister was dominant with a 167 yard performance, averaging 7 yards per carry. The Federal defense was equally as dominant, holding Maurice Jones-Drew to only 27 yards rushing and sacking Sam Bradford 5 times. The loss removed any Wild Card chances from New Jersey and gave the final playoff spot to the New Orleans Breakers.

LAS VEGAS 16 OAKLAND 6

Losses by Portland, Michigan, and Texas on Saturday meant that Las Vegas was already guaranteed the 6th and final playoff spot in the West, but the Thunder wanted to win this game regardless of the playoff situation. They sent Oakland to a 4th straight defeat, an ominous sign for the postseason, as Jake Plummer went 21 of 27 for 173 yards and Marshawn Lynch rushed for 80 more on the day. The Thunder defense took care of business as well, limiting Bob Volek to only 7 of 25 for 39 total yards passing on a miserable day for the Invader offense.

Controversy as Denver Loses Their Top Seed Lock 2 Days Before Game

It was the story of the week, perhaps of the season, as the league, only 3 days before their season finale with Baltimore, notified the Denver Gold that miscalculations of the tie breakers had falsely caused the league office to declare the Gold both champions of the Southwest Division and the #1 seed prematurely. Denver Gold officials were notified by the league on Thursday afternoon that a combination of a Denver loss and a Houston win could, in fact, lead to Houston, not Denver taking both titles. Apparently somehow the order of tie breakers had been confused by league officials in New York, an error which had caused the league to declare Denver the winner of the SW Division, and the top seed in the West last week, when, in fact, the third tiebreaker should have broken for Houston and not the Gold.

Having prepared all week to rest many of their starters, Denver coaches and front office staff lashed back at the league. Their club would have to prepare to face the Baltimore Blitz on Sunday with only 2 days of practice with many of their starters, including QB Matt Leinart, who had been given permission to return home to LA for several days during the week. The team now had to scramble to face Baltimore with both their division title and bye week on the line. The result, as you saw above, was not pretty, and the loss at home to the Blitz, a loss the Gold had initially believed they could absorb with no impact on their playoff status, instead cost them home field, a bye week, and a division title. Instead of having the Wild Card week off as the West’s #1 seed, Denver would now have to prepare to host a Wild Card matchup against Las Vegas this weekend.

Calls for the league to reverse the decision were met with silence from the league office. Cries of unfair practices, and a psychologically damning impact on the team were also unanswered by the league. It appears that while technically the right results were put in place with Houston becoming the new #1 seed, the results of the week, and the final outcome, were absolutely and unequivocally impacted by the very late notice of the league’s error. This offers no solace to the Gold, who went from a celebratory mood to one of deep anxiety and frustration with the league. The club is now calling on the league to discipline the data analytics team that was responsible for calculating all the playoff scenarios and informing both teams and the public in general of the permutations still in play. Denver officials, almost certainly rightfully claim that had the Gold known from Week 14 on that their season was still in question, they would have certainly prepared differently for both their Week 15 and Week 16 contests. The starters would have been fully engaged in preparation all week prior to the Baltimore game, and the results could have been very different.

Meanwhile, the Gold must now prepare to face a very game, and dangerous Las Vegas Thunder squad this weekend. Can they get their minds back into the game and off of the scandal that put them in this situation, or is a very good season in Denver at risk due to something completely out of their control?

Luginbill Announces Retirement after Ohio edges Cannons

Ohio head coach Al Luginbill made it official on Saturday, speaking to the press after his Glory squad defeated the Boston Cannons in front of 38,505 at Ohio Stadium. The Glory, who finished the year at 4-11-1, by far the worst record for a Luginbill-coached squad. The longstanding coach of the Glory announced is plan to step away from the game. Not exactly a retirement, but a pause to reevaluate his goals, and his passion for the game.

Luginbill came to Ohio in 1999 and within 3 seasons had his club poised to make history as the first (and only) undefeated club in league history. He followed that up with a second consecutive Summer Bowl title in 2003. The Glory were based on an offense devised by Luginbill, one predicated on quick decision making by his All-USFL quarterback Kerry Collins and the consistent run game provided by Eddie George. With Collins now retired and George expected to be stepping away soon, Luginbill’s core roster is in transition, and the timing simply seemed right for the coach to step away. He leaves Ohio with a win-loss record of 113-64, the best win percentage of any head coach in league history.

Spurrier Sets Off into Sunset as Bandits Fall at Home

Saturday marked a milestone for the Tampa Bay Bandits and for their two-time head coach Steve Spurrier. The former U. of Florida and Buccaneers QB officially finished his second term as the head coach of the Tampa Bay Bandits. And while the team could not send him out on a winning note, falling to Charlotte in the season finale to finish the year 7-9, they did not let Spurrier’s departure go without recognition or celebration of his long career with the Bandits. The Bandits, very likely without his endorsement, paused the game at the 2-minute warning to officially recognize Coach Spurrier. The coach waved to the crowd, who gave him a standing ovation as the two teams applauded on the sideline.

Spurrier, like Luginbill in Ohio, has stated that he is stepping away from the game, but is not calling this a permanent retirement. Whether the pause will turn into a permanent retirement is still to be seen, but for now the Bandits will be looking for a new leader to return them to playoff contention and, fans hope, a third title.

Black Monday Comes & Goes with no Firings

A rarity in the world of pro football, a Black Monday with no firings, and yet, that is what we got this year. Aside from the two resignations by Al Luginbill and Steve Spurrier, it appears that there will be no changes on the sidelines of USFL squads this year. While there were several teams who underperformed expectations, teams seem to be taking a patient approach to rebuilding and building a new culture within their organizations. Birmingham, the team with the worst record in the league at 2-14, seems committed to Mike Shanhan as the answer, even if the team has struggled to build an identity in his first two seasons. Several other teams, including Jacksonville, Los Angeles, and and St. Louis, are in the first year with their new head coaches, and are not pulling the trigger after only one year.

Perhaps the biggest surprise, and one that some fans are having trouble accepting, is that Memphis is sticking with Jim Haslett despite back to back years with 10+ losses. Following a 4-10 season in 2009, the 5-11 season this year was hardly what Showboat fans were waiting for. Haslett, of course, gets credit for the 2007 Showboat championship, though it was his first year with the team, but the declining results the past two seasons were seen as a potential threat to his job security. It seems that Showboat ownership views their current issues as one tied to inadequate QB play, and yet when we look at the statistics, Jake Delhomme’s season this year was hardly a disaster. The fact that Memphis had one of the league’s worst pass defenses (27th in the league) was certainly as big a factor for their struggles as the lack of offensive explosiveness. With Delhomme now a free agent and Memphis looking to go in a new direction, it seems that ownership has decided to allow Haslett to build the roster he feels can revitalize the club. Many fans may disagree, but at least for now it appears that the club will stay the course and move forward with Haslett at the helm.

League Leaders Locked in as Regular Season Comes to a Close

With the conclusion of the regular season, the statistical races have also been finalized. Looking across the statistical tables, not a lot of surprises, though certainly some players stepped up in 2010. From budding stars like Josh Reed to veteran standouts like Matt Hasselbeck, this season saw some outstanding performances across the league. Here are the standouts from the 2010 statistical leaders.

PASSING: A split result this year, with Matt Hasselbeck taking the titles for passing yards (4,105) and touchdowns (35), while Kurt Warner takes home the title with his 103 QB Rating. The two also helped their teams reach the #1 seed in each conference and must be considered the two frontrunners for this year’s MVP award.

RUSHING: T. J. Duckett takes the rushing title, finishing the year with 1,388 yards, besting Baltimore’s Ron Dayne by only 7 yards, and third place finisher Rashard Mendenhall by only 15. Duckett has come close before, finishing 2nd to Deuce McCallister in 2008, but this marks his first time taking home the title.

RECEIVING: Two rising stars emerge out of this year’s receiving numbers. Orlando’s Michael Jenkins had himself quite a year, targeted 173 times, he came down with 127 receptions to lead the league. The total put him 5 catches ahead of Chicago’s Donald Driver. Jenkins’s production this year also helped him make his first appearance among the league leaders in receiving yards, finishing fourth behind perennial contenders Donald Driver, Steve Smith, and this year’s league leader, Atlanta wideout Josh Reed. Reed finished the year with 1,476 yards on 91 receptions. Driver, who finished 2nd in both categories, did take home one very important title, leading the league with 14 receiving touchdowns.

DEFENSE: No one is shocked to learn that Mike Vrabel led the league in tackles, or that Calais Campbell’s 22 sacks gave him the title as well. Vrabel has been a top tackler for the better part of a decade, with 2010 marking his second title in tackles. He previously won the tackle race in 2004, but the past three years we have seen domination by Brian Urlacher, winning 3 titles in a row.

Calais Campbell wins back-to-back sack titles, and while his total of 22 sacks this year is a far cry from his 2009 record of 34, it is certainly a strong year for one of the league’s emerging stars. The total put him 2 ahead of perennial sack master Anthony Weaver of Chicago.

Another potential emerging star on Orlando’s talented defense, cornerback Courtland Finnegan led the league with 8 picks, The total put him 2 picks ahead of the closest competitor, Charlotte’s Carlos Rogers, and was paired with an impressive 25 passes defended and 84 tackles, highlighting Finnegan’s skills as both a ball hawk and a solid tackler.

With this week’s results, the playoff matchups and seeds are now set. In the East there are no surprises. Philadelphia maintains the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. With their win over the Breakers, Nashville earns the #2 seed and the bye week it provides. Atlanta, with a final week loss, still manages to win the Southeast Division, their first division title, but will host a playoff game next week as the #3 seed. The 4, 5, and 6 seeded Wild Card berths go to Washington, Baltimore, and New Orleans, in that order, setting up a rivalry game in the Wild Card round as the Blitz will travel to DC to face the Feds in the playoff round. Atlanta will host New Orleans in a southern-style playoff matchup.

In the West, Houston takes full advantage of the chaos surrounding Denver’s positioning to upend the standings and take over as the #1 seed. They now will have homefield throughout the playoff and will earn the bye this week as the Western Conference’s #1 seed. Pittsburgh, despite their loss this week, retain the #2 position and will have a bye in the Wild Card round. They will host the higher seed coming out of the Wild Card round in 2 weeks. Oakland, losers of 4 in a row, finish the year as the Pacific Division champions and will be hosting a Wild Card game against Chicago as the #3 seed. Chicago finishes the year as the #6 seed after losing to the Skyhawks this week. At #4 we have the Denver Gold, who are still livid at the turn of events that has them hosting #5 Las Vegas this week.

With losses in their final games, Orlando, New Jersey, Portland, Michigan, and Texas all failed to take advantage of possible last second playoff pushes. All 5 finish the year at 8-8 and must be content to earn at least a .500 record for the season.

As we prepare for next week’s Wild Card playoffs, injuries certainly could have an impact on the 4 playoff games. We review each game, with the key players expected to be out.

NOR CB Billy Austin (OUT), OT Mark Tasuscher (OUT), C Todd McClure (DOU),

DE Trent Cole (QUE)

ATL WR David Tyree (OUT), DE Chris Kelsay (OUT), WR Demaaryius Thomas (PROB)

Losing Chris Kelsay certainly impacts Atlanta’s efficacy in the pass rush, but New Orleans potentially missing 2 of their starting 5 on the offensive line may be a bigger issue.

BAL LB Jason Taylor (OUT), CB Ken Lucas (OUT), CB Chris McCallister (OUT)

WSH G Aaron Sears (OUT), HB Rod Smart (DOUB), OT Matt Stinchcomb (PROB)

Baltimore lost Jason Taylor this week for the entire playoffs. The NFL import has not has as large an impact as the Blitz had hoped for, so they should be able to compensate for his absence. The bigger concern for the Blitz is, of course, their secondary, down to the 3rd and 4th cornerbacks after season-ending injuries to both Chris McCallister and Ken Lucas. Washington will miss Rod Smart, but with the performance Deuce McCallister put in this week, we would not be too concerned.

CHI CB Reggie Smith (OUT)

OAK WR Pierre Garcon (OUT), LB Joe Odom (DOU), QB Joey Harrington (QUE)

Both Chicago and Oakland are relatively healthy, however, Oakland fans have to be disappointed that it does not look like Joey Harrington is ready to return to action. He will be active, but likely only as the 3rd, emergency, QB.

LV No Injuries Reported

DEN LB Dat Nguyen (DOU), TE Daniel Graham (QUE), CB Tory James (PROB),

T Ryan Clady (PROB)

A bit of a lopsided injury report with Denver likely to miss some key contributors, most noteworthy being LB Dat Nguyen, while Las Vegas is not reporting any injuries that could impact this weekend’s game. It feels very much like a bunker mentality for the Gold, who did not anticipate playing in this week’s action to begin with.

FREE AGENT POOL SWELLS AS 16 TEAMS RELEASE CONTRACTS

With the conclusion of the regular season, 16 of the league’s 28 teams now see players in the final year of their contracts become free agents. The remaining 12 teams will have a similar situation arise as they are each eliminated from the playoffs. While free agency does not officially begin for 1 month, and teams can still resign players during this period, history shows us that players who have not signed by now are significantly less likely to return to their current team than to test the waters in open free agency and find another home, either in the USFL, or later this Fall, when the NFL-USFL transfer window reopens. As we look at the current pool of free agents, recognizing that it represents only 16 of 28 clubs, it is clear already that there will be some very interesting battles to sign some top flight talent this offseason. We start with our pick of the 10 best free agents available as of right now (again, more will join the pool each week from now until the Summer Bowl.

10— DE Andrew Wadsworth (BOS)

With the emergence of Jason Babin as Boston’s premier edge rusher (17 sacks in 2010), Andre Wadsworth was an expensive player at a position that was not producing as many results (only 4 sacks). He still can provide a push for a team that may not have a premier edge rusher available. Don’t expect top level money here, but mid-range salary for a 2-3 year deal is certainly possible.

9— LB Mike Maslowski (POR)

Portland’s leading tackler (94 in 2010) Maslowski is a better-than-average middle linebacker in a league where the position has taken something of a backseat to the faster, more aggressive outside backers. Despite this, Maslowski could be a top target for some of the clubs around the league who are dealing with a less than stellar run defense.

8— OT Mike Williams (STL)

Finding a quality tackle, especially one who can play on either side of the line, is always an attractive option, so expect Williams to be quite a popular player in this year’s offseason.

7— WR Joe Jurevicius (BOS)

The longstanding #2 receiver for the Cannons had a rough year in 2010, appearing in the first six games of the year before injury wiped out the rest of his 2010 season. Prior to this year, Jurevicius put together back to back 1,000 yard seasons, and, assuming the 35-year old is able to bounce back from injury, Jurevicius could again find himself as a team’s 2nd receiver, though a role player position may not be out of the question at this stage of his career and after returning from significant injury.

6— DT Kenard Lang (OHI)

With 83 tackles in 2010, Kenard Lang is one of the best in the business at both run stuffing and occupying blockers in the pass rush. He will not garner DE money, but he should end this offseason as one of the highest paid defensive tackles in the league. With uncertainty about leadership in Ohio as Al Luginbill steps down, Lang may well be open to a move.

5— QB Jake Delhomme (MEM)

A bit of a surprise as Delhomme had a solid year statistically with the Showboats. Delhomme threw for over 3,100 yards, with 17 touchdowns and 12 picks. Memphis allowed Delhomme’s contract to expire, which seems to indicate that they already have other plans at the position. Most around the Showboats believe this may be an interest in Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, whose senior season begins in about a month. Mallett would be a territorial pick option for the Showboats. As for Delhomme, with QB being such a vital position in the league, and with several teams less than satisfied with their current signal caller, we expect Delhomme to get a lot of interest.

4— WR Plaxico Burress (FA)

Unsigned since his gunshot injury and subsequent suspension, Burress is an interesting case for the league. He is a true free agent, and could be signed by an NFL club outside of the transfer window, but so far this offseason the NFL seems uninterested in the receiver. Will the same be true for the 28 USFL clubs who will be able to sign Burress as of late August.

3— LB Lavar Arrington (JAX)

Jacksonville could not afford to resign both Mike Vrabel and Lavar Arrington this offseason. They prioritized their All-USFL middle linebacker, which means that 10-year veteran Arrington is cut loose. Arrington dealt with injuries all season, amassing only 17 tackles, a career low, and not a good way to enter the market.

2— G Leonard Davis (TEX)

The big right guard played over 1,100 snaps this year, and had only 2 penalties called against him. One of the best run blockers available this year, and a solid pass protector as well. Guard is a tricky position to judge when it comes to value and compensation, but expect Davis to get his payday this offseason.

1—SS Troy Polamalu (LA)

Without a doubt the most intriguing defender currently available as a free agent. He has had something of a beef with LA ownership over what he sees as a lack of respect for his role on the team, so we expect him to jump at a chance to relocate and will focus on his role, perhaps more than purely financial value in a new contract. Expect a ton of interest from across the league as many teams will do what they can to get this heavy hitter into their camp.

Outside of the ten listed above, there are certainly other players who will get interest. Here is our quick breakdown of the other noteworthy names that are now outside of a contract.

Quarterbacks: Jeff Blake (STL), Matt Cassel (ORL), Jeff Garcia (LA), Tee Martin (SEA), Ingle Martin (POR), Dave Dickenson (BIR)

Halfbacks: LaBrandon Toefield (TBY), Chris Perry (POR), R. J. Redmond (NJ), Michael Bush (BIR)

Fullbacks: Marecellus Reese (SEA)

Tight Ends: Marcellus Rivers (MGN)

Receivers: Joey Galloway (OHI), Lee Evans (MEM), Darnerien McCants (CHA), Javon Walker (OHI)

Tackles: Will Smith (ORL), Oliver Ross (MGN), Kurt Vollers (TBY)

Guards: Jonathan Fischer (STL), Steve Sciulo (ORL), Stefen Page (BIR)

Centers: Chris Spencer (ATL), Jonathan Sewell (MGN), Melvin Fowler (TBY)

Edge Rushers: Marcellus Wiley (MEM), Akin Ogunleye (MGN), Joe Tafoya (ARZ), Carl Powell (JAX)

Defensive Tackles: Daryl Gardener (LA), Jason Peter (TBY), Alan Rubin (LA)

Linebackers: Kevin Mitchell (TBY), T. J. Slaughter (STL), Will Overstreet (ORL)

Corners: Jason Webster (OHI), Duane Starks (ARZ), Corey Webster (CHA)

Safeties: Reggie Tongue (CHA0, Clifton Black (ARZ), Brian Dawkins (ARZ), Darnell Bing (BOS), Cory Fuller (NJ)

Kickers: Jeff Hall (MEM), Nick Folk (ARZ)

Punters: Darren Colquitt (MGN), Brad Costello (MEM)

Wild Card Weekend. Four games over two days, and the round where we most frequently see road teams pull the upset. With the top 4 clubs in the league resting during their bye week, the remaining 8 playoff teams must find a way to survive and advance. Here is our look at the four games on tap this weekend.

#6 NEW ORLEANS (9-7) @ #3 ATLANTA (9-7)

Saturday, July 10 @ 4pm ET

Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA

Two pretty evenly matched clubs face off in the Georgia Dome this week. New Orleans comes in with the league’s 4th rated passing attack, led by Eli Manning and a young group of receivers. Their weakness has been on defense, where they have given up nearly 330 yards per game (23rd in the league), and yet, despite bending quite a bit, they do not break as often as you might think, rankied in the top 10 at only 17.8 points per game allowed.

Atlanta won its first division title largely on the back of the 4th ranked pass defense. The Fire do not allow a lot of yards through the air, which creates an interesting matchup with the Breakers’s pass-first strategy. On offense, the key is balance, with Kyle Orton at his best when Darren McFadden poses a viable run threat. Josh Reed led all receivers this year with nearly 1,500 yards receiving, so you have to believe that the Breakers will do all they can to contain Orton’s #1 target.

Our pick: We think experience might give an edge to the Breakers, who have seen more playoff action than the Fire to be sure. Yes, playing in Atlanta will be a boost for the Fire, but we still see the more experienced team having a better shot of handling the pressure.

#5 LAS VEGAS (9-7) @ #4 DENVER (12-4)

Saturday, July 10 @ 8pm ET

Invesco Field, Denver, CO

This one will be interesting to say the least. The question on everyone’s mind is if Denver will come out disheartened and flat or absolutely seething and rage-fueled. There is a lot of anger about this past week among the Gold players and coaches, and that could translate either into sloppy play or into a beat down of the Thunder. If Las Vegas can survive the emotional wave that will hit at Invesco during the first quarter, they might be well-suited to use Denver’s fire against them, forcing mistakes, penalties, and turnovers, which would certainly help Las Vegas’s erratic offense with short fields and potential big mistakes.

On paper, Denver is clearly the better team. Their record, their defensive strength, and the consistency of their run game, a two-headed beast that accounted for nearly 1,800 yards (Hicks 893, Ringer 772). Las Vegas will depend on their run defense and hope to find some answers with the 26th rated offense. Jake Plummer might need to find some of his old magic for the Thunder to move the ball against what will likely be a fired up Gold defense.

Our Pick: Denver is the better team, that seems pretty clear. Our only worry is that they are rattled by the events of the past week. We think that they will turn the shock of this past week into a driving motivation to come out strong. This one could be ugly, but we think it ends with a Denver win.

#5 BALTIMORE (10-6) @ #4 WASHINGTON (10-6)

Sunday, July 11 @ 1pm ET

RFK Stadium, Washington, DC

This one should be fun. Two foes who know each other about as well as any two teams in the league. Baltimore have won 4 of their last 5 and are back on track with Ben Roethlisberger back under center. As always, they will try to get Ron Dayne rolling, which frees up Tory Holt and Darius Heyward-Bay with single coverage. Washington will counter with Deuce McCallister and the dual threat of David Garrard, who has really come on over the past month. Baltimore’s defense is 25th in the league in scoring and 28th in yards allowed, so the Federals are hoping to keep their offense on the field and keep Big Ben sitting on the sideline for as much of the game as possible.

Our Pick: This is a tough one since both clubs are playing really well right now. Washington won pretty handily only 2 weeks ago, so we think they have the psychological edge. We will pick the Federals to win again, but this one will likely be a torrid and high scoring affair.

#6 CHICAGO (9-7) @ #3 OAKLAND (9-7)

Sunday, July 11 @ 5pm ET

Oakland-Alameda Coliseum, Oakland, CA

Two clubs who are not at their best the past month. Chicago has lost 3 of 4 and Oakland has lost 4 in a row. What that tells us is that neither of these teams is coming into this game with a lot of swagger. The Mahine have a bit more confidence in them simply because they have all of their stars available, both on offense, with Michael Turner, Donald Driver, and Brady Quinn ready to roll, and on defense, where Anthony Weaver just missed on the sack total, while Brian Urlacher remains one of the best MLB’s in the game.

Oakland was hoping for a miraculous return from Joey Harrington. With that not happening, Bob Volek will have to surprise us. Either that, or Ricky Williams will have to simply explode against Chicago’s #2 rated rush defense. That feels like a lot to ask of the veteran back.

Our pick: We see Chicago as the team with more momentum, though they too have struggled of late. Losing to St. Louis cannot be a confidence booster. Honestly, turnovers could be the key to this game. We have two good defenses and two offenses that have talent. Overall we just cannot shake the feeling that Chicago is in a better position to win this game.