October 12, 2012
With the NFL season in full swing (Matt Ryan and the Falcons are looking unstoppable), we take a pause from the on-field action to check in on our other obsession, the USFL offseason. It has been 2 months since the St. Louis Skyhawks became the first 2006-2008 expansion club to win a title, and it has been a busy two months. We will break down all the big news, from a couple of big time retirement announcements, through USFL free agency and the NFL-USFL transfer window, the coaching hires, and then finish off with a preview of the 2013 USFL Draft coming this January. A lot to cover so let’s get straight to it.
A Pair of Superstars Step Away
Two big USFL Stars, one with a brand new championship ring, have announced that they have played their last games. QB Kurt Warner of the Philadelphia Stars and HB Antowain Smith, MVP of the Summer Bowl both announced in September that they would not be back in 2013. For Smith it was a triumphant departure, winning a title in his 16th USFL season and earning the Summer Bowl MVP to boot. For Warner, a bittersweet departure from the game, caused in no small part by the neck injury that cost him practically the entire 2012 season and which created too much risk to his health for him to return to football in 2013.
Warner retires as one of the great stories in pro football. Coming out of nowhere to win a Super Bowl with the St. Louis Rams, moving on to the Giants, then to the USFL, where he helped lead the Philadelphia Stars back to playoff contention, winning the 2010 Offensive Player of the Year. From obscurity to a legendary two-league career. He leaves the USFL with 8 seasons in Philadelphia, in which he threw for 22,469 yards and 155 TDs.
Smith retires as the 4th leading rusher in league history, behind only Hall of Famers Mike Rozier, Herschel Walker, and Eddie George. His 16-season career is one of the longest recorded for a running back, particularly one who was a starter for his entire career. With eight 1,000-yard seasons and over 100 TDs scored, and now a title as well, he will certainly garner a lot of attention when the USFL Hall of Fame Class of 2017 is announced.
We know what Philadelphia will do with Warner retired. They will lean into the hero of 2012, Matt Gutierrez, who certainly earned the starting job with 31 TDs, 3,592 yards and an 11-3 record as the starter. The situation is a little trickier for St. Louis, trying to replace Smith. They have James Ridley and William Bethea returning, but were not able to snag one of the bigger name halfbacks in free agency. That leaves them the draft and the possibility of a decent back being on the market when the 2nd NFL-USFL transfer window opens.
Renegades Trust Russell, Send Eli to Memphis
John Fox wasted no time putting his stamp on the Orlando Renegades. Within a month of his arrival the Renegades did something few expected, trading starting QB Eli Manning to the Memphis Showboats. Manning who was obtained from New Orleans only 2 years earlier in the swap for Drew Brees, now finds himself on his third team, and back in the Southern Division with the Showboats. The move shows incredible confidence in 2012 rookie QB Russell Wilson, who goes into camp as the starter, with NFL veteran Chad Henne as the backup.
In return for Manning, Orlando receives two high picks, a 2nd rounder from Memphis in 2013 and a 1st rounder in 2014 which the Showboats had obtained from Seattle in a trade last year. Orlando may not be done reshaping their roster, as Fox continues to reach out to other clubs, hoping to fill gaps he perceives in the roster. But, by far, this move is the big one so far this offseason.
Manning had a strong season with Orlando in 2011, throwing for 2,900 yards with 18 touchdowns and 9 picks, but his 2012 numbers dipped considerably. He had 2,800 yards, but only 12 touchdowns and then 12 picks on top of that. His QB Rating dipped to its lowest in several years, down from 89.5 to 76.7. Wilson, the presumed starter for Orlando for 2013, appeared in only 1 game in 2012, the season finale, where he completed 19 of 29 passes for 137 yards, a TD, and a pick, but there is certainly plenty of film on the former NC State and Wisconsin QB, and Coach Fox must like what he sees.
For Memphis, this solves a major issue from last year, when both Ryan Mallett and Matt Cassell failed to produce any spark on offense, leaving the Showboats with the 29th ranked offense (yardage and scoring) in the league and the 27th ranked passing game. Mallett, who started 13 games, finished the year with a very poor 55.0 QB Rating, throwing for only 1,672 yards with 7 TDs and 9 picks. Cassel did not fare much better in his 3 starts, throwing for 1,002 yards with 4 TDs and 5 picks, producing a QB Rating of 68.5. Now they bring in a veteran who has proven effective in the past, but who never seems to find himself with the talent around him to produce a true contender. In Memphis he will have some receivers to throw to in veterans Robert Ferguson, Lee Evans, Sidney Rice and Nate Washington. Memphis appears to have solved their big question at HB thanks to free agency (see below), and now have a new QB to boot.
Pickett Moves On, Traded for Quincy Carter
The Maulers had a full blown QB controversy on their hands. Cody Pickett, who had been the starter since coming over from Seattle in 2007, and he had some solid years, with his QBR topping 90 in both 2010 and 2011, but last year nothing was working right. With 10 games under his belt, Pickett had 13 picks to 8 TDs and a rating of 75.1. Coach Rivera had to make a switch, so he went with 2nd year TCU product Andy Dalton. Dalton would start the final 6 games, and while his 88.2 QB Rating was not earthshaking, the offense did improve, with Dalton throwing for 500 more yards in 6 games than Pickett did in 10 and throwing 9 TDs and 6 picks in only 6 games.
So, the Maulers had a conundrum on their hands. They wanted to see what Dalton could do, and what he did was pretty solid, so what to do with Pickett. Well, that question was answered in September, when the Maulers dealt their veteran QB to the Nashville Knights. In return they would get a 4th round pick and Knights’ backup Quincy Carter. Carter will be a clear number 2 behind Dalton, but his 2011 stats show that he can certainly step in if needed.
For Nashville, having Pickett is solid insurance should Peyton Manning’s neck become an issue again. Manning is the clear starter, a superstar in Tennessee and pretty much everywhere else, while Pickett will be a solid number 2, able to learn from one of the masters and perhaps earn the starting job when Manning hangs up the cleats. It solved the Mauler’s QB problem and now gives Nashville one of the most experienced QB groups in the league.
Stump Mitchell, From Hawk to Dragon
It was the move we expected, with St. Louis Offensive Coordinator Stump Mitchell taking the offer from the Seattle Dragons to become their newest Head Coach. Mitchell replaces Marvin Lewis, who stepped down after 10 seasons and a USFL title with the Dragons. Mitchell inherits a team that many expected to compete for the Pacific title, but which finished a pretty dismal 3-13 and now boasts a Top 3 draft pick. Seattle still has a QB who can play in Byron Leftwich, and some talent in players like Nate Burleson, Mike Wallace, and LT Kenyatta Jones on offense. They also have some pieces on defense in Leodis McKelvin and Richard Sherman, but need to develop both a run game and a stronger front 7 on defense.
Mitchell wasted no time with the Dragons, making a big free agent signing his first week when he brought in DT Amibi Okoye. He would then add backup QB Mike Flynn from the Blitz. The expectation is that he will look to solve their running game problems in the draft, but will have to work the Open Draft to find one as the team’s T-Draft protected schools (Washington, Wash St. and Boise St) do not have any top tier backs to offer this year.
A Colt Comes to Baltimore
The Baltimore Blitz filled their coaching vacancy with a former NFL head coach in former Colt Jim Caldwell. Considered the favorite since an early interview in August, Caldwell comes to the Blitz having won a Super Bowl with QB Peyton Manning. He hopes to do the same with Big Ben Roethlisberger and the Blitz. He too began early, re-signing a key cog to the offense, center Austin King, to a 3-year deal. The next week he looked at the defense, landing Bulls’ safety Eric Weddle to help build up the secondary.
The Blitz have been decent, but not good enough the past few years, always hovering around the .500 mark in a division that this year had 3 teams with 12 wins. He will have some tough sledding to get through the brutal NE Division this year, particularly with a pretty slim salary cap space left. As for Caldwell, he is known for a pretty traditional pro-set offense and a defense designed to play with the lead, at least that is what we saw in Indianapolis. He may need to mix that up a bit with the Blitz.
LA To Play the Waiting Game
The two hires leaves only 1 team left waiting for a new leader, and that is the way management want to play it. They are going to wait this out, build the team with their front office and scouting staff, and then see what options arise once the NFL season is over in late December. Expect them to go hard for an NFL coordinator unless a head coach they really like is available. Either way, whoever they bring in will have to hit the ground running.
Whoever the new coach is, we know that he will have on his hands a team with a solid defense (6th in scoring and 5th in yards allowed in 2012) but one that is getting older. His offense is more of a question mark. In a pretty shaky 2012, the team gave up on Randy Moss after his vocal criticisms of QB Mark Sanchez and head coach Gregg Williams divided the locker room. They also appear to be cutting loose HB Ray Rice, who is still out on the free agent market despite several teams needing a lead back. So, the new head coach in LA will have to hope that the front office does some wheeling and dealing this offseason to give him weapons to work with. So far the only free agent signings have been on defense (see below), so that offense is still looking pretty shaky to us.
Our big story was about two noteworthy retirements, both with HOF potential. But they were hardly alone in calling 2012 their final season. In addition to Warner, Smith, and several early retirements such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Joey Galloway, and Charles Woodson. There have been several others which could be equally as tough for their teams to deal with. Here is our rundown of August and September’s announcements.
Denver FS Jamel Williams retires after 15 seasons in the Mile High City.
HB Ladell Betts played 10 seaosns with 5 different clubs, retiring from Atlanta after 1 year with the Fire.
DE Robert Mathis played one year in Oakland before becoming a Philly Star for the next 8. He retires at 33 with 66 career sacks.
A pair of DT’s call call it a career, with Houston’s Kenard Lang and Philly’ Seth Payne both announcing they would not be back for 2013.
New Jersey will lose a key defender as LB Scott Fujita decided to finish with 10 USFL seasons under his belt.
Linemen Dominic Raiola (C-DAL) and Manuia Saveea (G-HOU) also announced this past month.
We already touched on two big trades, sending former starting QBs to new teams. But those were hardly the only moves we have seen so far. Here are 3 more that could impact 2013.
Weinke On the Move Again
QB Chris Weinke, who came over to the USFL from the fall league in 2008, has not exactly had a smooth ride. A 3-year starter in Charlotte, Weinke struggled, then was traded to Seattle before the 2011 season. He never got a start with the Dragons and midseason this year he was traded to Texas as part of their strategy to replace Joe Flacco. Texas never called on Weinke to lead the Outlaws, relying on Luke McCown the rest of the season. And now Texas sends the much-traveled QB to a 4th USFL team in 4 years, closing a deal that sends the former FSU Seminole to Columbus, where he will likely back up, and perhaps compete with Vince Young for the Glory. Ohio seemingly got Weinke quite cheaply, only sending a 3rd round pick to Texas to land the former NFL starter.
Kearse to Bolster Monarch Rush
Another player making a 2nd move in one calendar year is DE Jevon Kearse. The 13-year vet was traded from the Panthers to New Jersey midseason when Sean Ellis went onto the IR. He played in several games for the Generals, including their playoff win over Washington and their divisional loss to Philly. Well, he is now headed on the road again, swapped for LB Rey Maualaga and some pick exchanging between New Jersey and Charlotte. The Monarchs struggled to rush Josh Freeman in the Summer Bowl and hope that Kearse can add some short term burst to the D-line, while New Jersey thinks that Maualaga will slot in nicely to Scott Fujita’s former spot.
Las Vegas Gets a Target for Plummer
The Thunder wanted targets for their veteran QB, the Renegades needed to rebuild a defense that failed them in 2012, so the swap just made sense. TE Ben Watson was stuck behind Greg Olsen in Orlando, and by giving him up they get a very solid swing safety, able to play Free or Strong Safety, in former Thunder player Chad Scott. Scott will likely slot in at Strong Safety, with Atari Bigby on the market and apparently looking for a new home.
Chicago Shopping Michael Turner
Whether it was a concern between coaches and their veteran or the Machine front office was really impressed with rookie HB Doug Martin, but whatever the reason it is clear that Chicago is shopping around Michael Turner, their lead back for the past 8 seasons. Turner, who turns 30 this offseason, has produced 7 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, including 1,396 yards in 2012, but Chicago seems open to all offers, and with several teams in need of a reliable lead back, we expect they will find a taker willing to offer some decent value for the 2-time All-USFL back.
So much to report in early free agency that it is hard to know where to start. We will kick off with the USFL players changing teams within the league then take a look at the damage that the NFL-USFL transfer window did, as it is always an NFL-leaning swap in August with the USFL getting their share of talent in February, when NFL contracts expire. As we look across the USFL, there was no lack of movement among teams in the first two months of free agency this year, with, apparently, a particular emphasis on defense.
Here is our list of the Top 12 players changing zip codes this offseason.
12—TE Jermichael Finley will join Eli Manning in Memphis, moving on from Philadelphia.
11—Another TE, Jacksonville’s Dustin Keller, will now certainly be booed in J’Ville as he moves south to join the rival Tampa Bay Bandits.
10—QB Mike Flynn finds a new home in Seattle, where he will be the backup to Byron Leftwich.
9—LB Zak DeOssie trades one Texas home for another, leaving the Gamblers to join the new Dallas Roughnecks.
8—LA tries to shore up their D-line by landing former Showboat nose tackle Rashad Moore
7—Another interior D-lineman on the move as former Blitz DT Atiyyah Ellison is now a Portland Stag.
6—Dallas is trying to deal with Jason Babin's departure, landing 29-year old Elvis Dumervil in free agency.
5—Free Safety Eric Weddle moves up the coast, leaving Jacksonville to become a new member of the Blitz.
4—Our highest ranked offensive players, other than the still unsigned Frank Gore, were both centers, and both have now signed. Austin King resigns with Baltimore after an injury-shortened 2012, while Baltimore’s fill in, Ethan Albright gets a chance to start full time as the newest member of the rival New Jersey Generals.
3—Memphis LB Kirk Morrison joins a team that has a long history of linebacker quality, becoming the newest man in the middle for the Philadelphia Stars.
2—Safety Bob Sanders, one of the most sought after defenders in this year’s crop of free agents, makes a move from the Big Apple to the Big Shoulders, becoming the newest in a long line of quality defenders to play in Chicago.
1—LB Antonio Pierce, after a HOF career in Washington will try to add to his resume by signing on for 2 years with the New Orleans Breakers. If healthy, he could be a huge upgrade for the Breakers in the middle.
Others changing cities include LBs Hannibal Navies (NOR to DEN), Tommy Polley (CHI to OHIO), and Jarret Johnson (NSH to JAX), Tight ends Jeramy Stevens (SEA to STL) and Jabari Holloway (STL to BIR), and guards Derrick Dockery (TEX to LV) and Carl Nicks (MEM to ATL). Finally, wideout Hank Basket has been the only early transfer among the wideout group (within the USFL), leaving the Oakland Invaders to join Atlanta.
The NFL Exodus this year was heavy on defense & O-Line, but the biggerst name to leave for the fall was neither a defender or a lineman. Here is our list of the biggest NFL signings from the transfer window, with a lot of defense and blockers on the list, but a wideout at the top.
12—Center Roberto Garza will be leaving the desert of Las Vegas for the Chicago Bears.
11—New Jersey Free Safety Scott Shields had an All-USFL season and the Generals hoped to resign the veteran, but they were only willing to go so far and apparently the Pittsburgh Steelers were willing to pay just a bit more and so Shields leaves for the NFL.
10—HB Jerious Norwood had some strong games for Oakland this year, and that is a big reason why the Atlanta Falcons signed him to a 2-year deal.
9—HB Maurice Hicks was shocked that the Gold resigned Javon Ringer, so he took offense, and he took it all the way to the LA Raiders of the NFL.
8—Michigan Panther LB Andy Katzenmoyer jumps ship for his Ohio home, joining the Browns in 2013.
7—Former Texas Longhorn, DE Casey Hampton, stays in town, not with the Dallas Roughnecks, but with the Cowboys.
6—Center Casey Wiegemann leaves New Jersey to go closer to his Iowa roots with the KC Chiefs.
5—Seattle was shocked to see DE John Abraham leave with an offer on the table, but the Dragons were just plain outbid by Arizona Cardinals.
4—OT Kenyatta Walker made his name with the Thunder but now joins the Carolina Panthers.
3—Oakland DE Israel Idonije moves on, signing with the NFL Detroit Lions
2—Former Boston DE Jason Babin gets his wish, cutting a deal with the New England Patriots which will allow him to retain all his local connections.
1—WR Donald Driver leaves Chicago for the Green Bay Packers, so now Chicago hates him.
As we often see, there was far less movement from the NFL, which was already suiting up for regular season games, to the USFL. Only players who had not yet found a team were still available for the choosing, and few players of note fall into that category. Among those who made the jump we have LBs Demorrio Williams (SD to the Wranglers) and Chase Blackburn (NYG to the Generals), DT Henry Melton (CHI to Blitz), DE Antwan Applewhite (CAR to Gamblers), CB Keenan Lewis (PIT to Gold), and the one noteworthy offensive skill player, HB La’Rod Stephens-Howling (ARZ to the Renegades).
We finish up our October edition of the USFL Offseason Report, as we always do, by looking at the upcoming USFL draft and the needs each team has going forward. With quite a few free agents still unsigned, it is possible that these priorities will change between now and January, but as of October these are the biggest gaps and the best opportunities to find rookie talent. We will review the teams in the draft order and see what action we might expect from each as the draft draws closer.
DALLAS ROUGHNECKS (Pick 1)
Needs: QB, C, DT, G, C, DE
Protected Schools: SMU, TCU, Oklahoma
Best T-Draft Prospect: While OT Lane Johnson may be the most talented prospect, the question many fans are asking is if Dallas will look long and hard at OU quarterback Landry Jones.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Dallas is not going to go with a QB with pick #1, there just is not one there. Their best option may be to trade down a few spots to a HB-hungry team and look at guard, where both UNC’s Jonathan Cooper and Alabama’s Chance Womack would be good early picks (assuming either escape the T-Draft, which is true of all our 1st rounders.)
SEATTLE DRAGONS (PICK 2)
Needs: HB, TE, OT, CB, G, QB
Protected Schools: Washington, Wash State, Boise State
Best T-Draft Prospect: The Dragons lost Marcus Truffant to free agency. Do they go after his brother, Desmond?
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Seattle will not jump up to 1 because they don’t expect Dallas to go HB, which means they may have their pick, and that pick could be Le’Veon Bell of Michigan State or Montee Ball of Wisconsin. We like these bigger backs for Seattle over the flashier but much smaller Giovanni Bernard or Cordarelle Patterson.
ORLANDO RENEGADES (PICK 3)
Needs: HB, CB, LB, DT, G
Protected Schools: Miami, South Carolina, UCF
Best T-Draft Prospect: Safety D. J. Swearinger is not really in a position of high need, but a HB like Gamecock Marcus Lattimore or UCF’s Latavius Murray could be a good fit.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Now, Orlando may be a team that leapfrogs to get that #1 pick, because they too would like another option at HB, but with Knowshon Moreno in house, they won’t sell the farm to do it. If they don’t they could still get the 2nd best HB, and they could go for a Patterson or Bernard type to supplement what Moreno does for them.
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS (PICK 4)
Needs: C, LB, FB, WR, HB, TE, DT
Protected Schools: Arkansas, Memphis, Ole Miss
Best T-Draft Prospect: Halfback is a top priority after the Showboats signed Darren McFadden, so Memphis may take a shot at Arkansas back Knile Davis, but with several USFL halfbacks, including Gore, McFadden, and their own Cadillac Williams still out there, the need may be gone before draft day..
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Yet another team that could be looking for a halfback. But, we also think Memphis is in need of linebackers, plural, so this pick we go for their first LB selection, and if he is there, that should be Jarvis Jones of Georgia, who can plug in and be a factor in year one.
OHIO GLORY (PICK 5)
Needs: DE, LB, G, FS, CB, WR, DT
Protected Schools: Ohio State, Cincinnati, Miami (OH)
Best T-Draft Prospect: Time to look over the Buckeye crop, and the best option this year is DT Johnathan Hankins, though another player we like is Cincinnati TE Travis Kelce.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Finally, a team not looking for a run game. They want a DE, and they may get the first overall choice here, which we think could be either Dion Jordan of Oregon or Ezekiel Ansah of BYU, again, as always, if not taken in the T-Draft.
BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS (PICK 6)
Needs: LB, DE, G, TE, DT, FS
Protected Schools, Alabama, Auburn, UAB
Best T-Draft Prospect: Several members of the Crimson Tide come to mind, perhaps CB Dee Milliner, OT D. J. Fluker, or LB Nico Johnson.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Birmingham would love to get Jarvis Jones from UGA, but if not, they will be fine with either Ansah or Jordan, or maybe take a look at Jones’s teammate from the Bulldogs, LB Alec Ogletree.
LOS ANGELES EXPRESS (PICK 7)
Needs: FS, HB, DT, CB, C, WR, TE
Protected Schools: USC, UCLA, San Diego State
Best T-Draft Prospect: Noth the highest need on the board, but there are two receivers worth exploring, either wideout Robert Woods from USC or TE Gavin Escobar from the Aztecs.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: LA would be a great fit for a Giovanni Bernard or Cordarelle Patterson, a pass-catching, multipurpose back who won’t be asked to run up the gut too much, well, assuming the Express hire a coach who is not a 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust kind of guy, which we don’t expect they will.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS (PICK 8)
Needs: DE, LB, T, FS, QB
Protected Schools: Florida, Clemson, Georgia Southern
Best T-Draft Prospect: DT Sharrif Floyd or LB Jonathan Bostic seem logical choices for a Bulls defense that still needs strength up the middle.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: If one of the DE’s or LB’s we have mentioned is here, then that will likely be the pick, but Jacksonville could also use a big tackle to start on the right then move to the left, and this draft has two really good ones in CMU’s Eric Fisher and Texas A&M’s Luke Joeckel.
ARIZONA WRANGLERS (PICK 9)
Needs: OT, LB, HB, DT, DE, G
Protected Schools: Arizona, Arizona State, New Mexico, Iowa State (Added due to weak pool)
Best T-Draft Prospect: With the addition of Iowa State this year due to a weak pool from their three regular schools, Arizona could and should go after Cyclone LB A. J. Klien
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Another team still searching for a halfback, but also a tackle. If one of the two big tackles is here, that might have to be apriority. If not, a back like Alabama’s Eddie Lacy could be a great fit for Jim Tomsula’s offense.
MICHIGAN PANTHERS (PICK 10)
Needs: HB, DE, LB, TE, T
Protected Schools: Michigan, Michigan State, CMU
Best T-Draft Prospect: The Panthers desperately need some quality in their backfield, so they should roll out the red carpet for Spartan HB Le’Veon Bell.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: What is it with halfbacks in this draft? Well, there are still quite a few good ones in free agency, and Michigan could lock up Le’Veon Bell in the T-Draft, so let’s not go HB here. How about a tight end for the Panthers? Tyler Eifert of Notre Dame and Zach Ertz of Stanford both have 1st round grades and both could help Kirk Cousins in his first year as the starter.
CHICAGO MACHINE (PICK 11)
Needs: WR, FS, G, LB, T, SS, DTProtected Schools: Illinois, Notre Dame, Purdue
Best T-Draft Prospect: Lots of options this year, so will Chicago go with yet another defender in LB Manti Te’o from Notre Dame or will they look for help on the line with Illinois big man, guard Hugh Thornton?
Best Rnd 1 Fit: The Machine need to find a replacement for Donald Driver. They need a possession guy with good hands and strong route running skills. That sounds a lot like a good fit for Clemson’s DeAndre Hopkins or possibly USC’s Robert Woods.
PITTSBURGH MAULERS (PICK 12)
Needs: WR, DT, T, DE, OT
Protected Schools: Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Marshall
Best T-Draft Prospect: The Maulers need a wideout, and lo and behold, WVU has one in Tavon Austin. More of a slot guy than a straight up number 1 receiver, he could still be a huge help to QB Andy Dalton.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Another team looking for a wideout. We like Hopkins here just on speed alone, but Tennessee’s Justin Hunter could also be worth a look.
NASHVILLE KNIGHTS (PICK 13)
Needs: TE, CB, HB, LB, G, K
Protected Schools: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Best T-Draft Prospect: HB Zac Stacy of Vanderbilt may be an attractive option for the Knights, as could Vol TE Mychal Rivera.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Could go TE with either Eifert or Ertz, or could have a shot at the best corner in this year’s pool, Dee Milliner out of Alabama.
HOUSTON GAMBLERS (PICK 14)
Needs: HB, DE, DT, SS, LB, G
Protected Schools: Texas A&M, Houston, Rice
Best T-Draft Prospect: OT Luke Joeckel is one of the top talents in the draft, but it is not a position Houston has much need for, so do they trade their T-Draft pick to someone who is tackle-needy?
Best Rnd 1 Fit: If they don’t take Christine Michael from A&M in the T-Draft, they may still pick him here, but we think they prefer Eddie Lacy from Alabama as a bigger inside-outside back.
BALTIMORE BLITZ (PICK 15)
Needs: FS, C, DT, WR, CB, OT, LB
Protected Schools: Maryland, Louisville, UConn
Best T-Draft Prospect: UConn has a solid corner in Dwayne Gratz, and we also like one of their linebackers, Sio Moore.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Baltimore wants help in the secondary, so either a corner like Milliner or Houston’s D. J. Hayden, or go for the best safety prospect, UT star Kenny Vaccaro.
TAMPA BAY BANDITS (PICK 16)
Needs: DT, LB, WR, T, G, TE, QB
Protected Schools: Florida State, FAU, USF
Best T-Draft Prospect: Daunte Culpepper is not getting any younger. Could E. J. Manuel be a good fit to pick up the baton for the Bandits?
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Defensive Tackle is the most obvious need, and we have not named any yet, so even at 16 they may have their pick of the crop, which we think is Utah’s Star Lotuleilei.
PORTLAND STAGS (PICK 17)
Needs: DE, T, QB, DT, HB, LB
Protected Schools: Oregon, Oregon State, Montana
Best T-Draft Prospect: Defensive end is a top need and Oregon has a good one in Dion Jordan. Seems a natural fit to us.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Portland could also look DT with Lotulelei or Mizzou’s Sheldon Richardson, or they could go for edge rush with Jordan, Ansah, or Barkevious Mingo from LSU.
OAKLAND INVADERS (PICK 18)
Needs: OT, CB, DE, WR, G, TE
Protected Schools: Cal, Stanford, Fresno State
Best T-Draft Prospect: The Invaders want to snag a TE and a WR, and they could get both from the T-Draft if they can sign both Stanford’s Zach Ertz and Cal’s Keenan Allen.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: If one of the two big tackles are here, Oakland would be overjoyed. They may even try to trade up to get one, but if not, the third option is likely Lane Johnson from OU.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS (PICK 19)
Needs: LB, C, FB, FS, G
Protected Schools: Virginia, Va Tech, Duke
Best T-Draft Prospect: not a lot of help at linebacker, but a good prospect at guard in UVa’s Oday Aboushi.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: The Feds need to add youth and versatility to their LB group. Looking at their system, the best fit is clearly someone like Oregon’s Kiko Alonso, though we also like Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o.
DENVER GOLD (PICK 20)
Needs: FS, DE, CB, SS, DT, OT
Protected Schools: Colorado, Nebraska, Colorado State
Best T-Draft Prospect: Ask for a tackle and you find one in the Buffs’ David Bakhtiari. They also could take a long look TE Nick Kasa.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Denver is hoping that safety Kenny Vaccaro is still available. If not, they could look long and hard at Eric Reid from LSU or Matt Elam of Florida.
NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS (PICK 21)
Needs: DT, T, LB, HB
Protected Schools: LSU, Tulane, Louisiana Tech
Best T-Draft Prospect: LB Kevin Minter and DT Bennie Logan are more immediate needs than their more publicized LSU teammates, DE Barkevious Mingo and S Eric Reid.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: The Breakers want a road grater at RT, and our pick for that is UNC’s Sylvester Williams, who should still be on the aboard at pick 21 if he is not taken by Charlotte in the T-Draft.
NEW JERSEY GENERALS (PICK 22)
Needs: SS, OT, FS, C, LB, DE
Protected Schools: Rutgers, Syracuse, Wisconsin
Best T-Draft Prospect: The Generals were not happy about losing OU to the new Dallas club, but they get Wisconsin in return, and the Badgers produce good line talent, including center Travis Frederick this year. Or, how about adding Montee Ball to the backfield?
Best Rnd 1 Fit: Another team that could try to move up to get Kenny Vaccaro, a hot commodity in the draft. We are assuming that they are picking big Center Travis Frederick in the T-Draft, or we would pencil them in for interior line here.
ATLANTA FIRE (PICK 23)
Needs: TE, CB, G, HB, K, P
Protected Schools: Georgia, Georgia Tech, Mississippi State
Best T-Draft Prospect: LB Jarvis Jones is the top prospect, but not a position of need. Now, CBs Alec Ogletree or Darius Slay, those could be two very good targets for the Fire to try to replace Charles Woodson with a young athletic player.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: If one of the two TEs happen to slide this far, great for the Fire, if not, then cornerback is the next need position andwelike Hayden or Washington’s Desmond Trufant here.
TEXAS OUTLAWS (PICK 24)
Needs: G, FS, WR, HB, P, K
Protected Schools: Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State
Best T-Draft Prospect: While safety Kenny Vaccaro is a very possible target, we also like the speedster at WR out of Austin, Marquise Goodwin.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: We have not listed a lot of guards yet, so Texas could luck out and find someone like Oregon’s Kyle Long or Alabama’s Chance Womack still on the board.
LAS VEGAS THUNDER (PICK 25)
Needs: OT, LB, C, Cb, TE, G, SS
Protected Schools: BYU, UNLV, Utah, Nevada (Added due to weak pool)
Best T-Draft Prospect: DE Ezekiel Ansah from BYU should be a target for sure, but the Thunder were able to add a 4th school (Nevada) due to the shallow pool, so perhaps Wolfpack safety Duke Williams or CB Khalid Wooten will be targets as well.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: No way Fisher or Joeckel are still here, but still there is good depth at OT in this draft with Alabama’s D. J. Fluker, Syracuse’s Justin Pugh, or FSU’s Manelick Watson all potentially escaping the T-Draft and being here late in Round 1.
PHILADELPHIA STARS (PICK 26)
Needs: DT, TE, HB, LB, DE, OT
Protected Schools: Penn State, Temple Boston College
Best T-Draft Prospect: Philly got BC added to their pool thanks to Boston’s move, but, as usual, we expect a Nittany Lion draft here. DT Jordan Hill or LBs Gerald Hodges and Michael Mauti are all potential targets.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: We know that Philly loved what they saw from Matt Gutierrez last year, but they need an insurance plan, and at 26 they are in the right position to look seriously at FSU’s E. J. Manuel or West Virginia’s Geno Smith.
CHARLOTTE MONARCHS (PICK 27)
Needs: DE, G, TE, LB, OT, CB
Protected Schools: UNC, NC State, ECU
Best T-Draft Prospect: Guard is a need and UNC offers them Jonathan Cooper, a Top 10 prospect. We also could see Charlotte try to add a true scat back in Tarheel Giovanni Bernard.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: While they are not likely to find one of the top DE’s still on the board at 27, they could see someone like FSU’s Tank Carradine or UCLA’s Datone Jones available at 27.
ST. LOUIS SKYHAWKS (PICK 28)
Needs: HB, DT, TE, P
Protected Schools: Missouri, Iowa, Kansas State
Best T-Draft Prospect: With defensive tackle a priority, the Skyhawks have to try to woo Mizzou’s Sheldon Richardson. We also like CB Micah Hyde out of Iowa as a top target even though it may not be a position of great need.
Best Rnd 1 Fit: St. Louis does not have a lot of needs, so does that motivate them to trade away some picks to move up? It seems plausible. They could also trade into the T-Draft to get that HB prospect they covet. Expect this pick to move and expect the target to be a reliable back like a Bell, Lacy, or Montee Ball.
So there you have it, our full breakdown of the offseason so far. You can now go safely back to the NFL for a while as USFL free agency plugs along. We will be back with our Draft recap in late January, and with a preview of the NFL talent that could be out there for a last minute save for franchises desperate to upgrade at the 11th hour. We will also likely finally know who LA’s next head coach will be and we expect a trade or two to shake things up as we get ready for USFL camps and the 2013 season. See you then.