Twenty-eight teams, twenty-eight destinies. Will this be the year for your club? Will this be the year they get over the hump and into the playoffs? The year they win it all? Or they year it all comes crashing down? The start of a new season means that every possibility is on the table. We have seen teams come from nowhere to emerge as champions and we have seen Summer Bowl Champions crash to the ground and fail to make the playoffs. It is all on the table right now. So, what can we say about the next year? Well, we can say that each team has reasons to be optimistic and reasons to be cautious. As we break down all 6 USFL Divisions and all 28 clubs, we take a look at the changes each team has made and the situation they find themselves in, at least on paper, before the games kick off. Here is our team-by-team analysis of what we see on the horizon for 2012.
Predicted Order of Finish: 1-Philadelphia 2-Washington 3-New Jersey 4-Baltimore 5-Boston
Our Thoughts on the Division: The Northeast feels like a two-team race between the Feds and the Stars. Last year we predicted Baltimore would slip, and they did. We also predicated that New Jersey could rise up, but they did not. This year we still see the Generals on an upward trajectory, and we have our doubts about Baltimore. I think it is safe to say that the Boston squad that went 1-14-1 last year will be better in 2012, but not good enough to make waves in this tough division.
2011 Final Record: 12-4 (2nd in NE)
Roster Movement:
Departures: G Cooper Carlisle (NFL), LB Ben Leber (Ret), G Rich Ornbelger (FA), CB Justin Miller (FA), WR Lance Moore (Trade)
Arrivals: DT DeMarcus Tyler (FA), OT Jared Gaither (NFL), OG Mike McGlynn (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: QB Austin Davis, OG Rokevious Watkins, OG Josh LeRibeus, DT Devon Still
Our Analysis: Last year the Stars got just about everything right, but finished 1 game behind for the division and then found themselves in the playoffs without Kurt Warner. Had he stayed healthy, who knows, we might have gotten the all Pennsylvania finale after all. This year they look very much like a team that will compete again. Losing Cooper Carlisle was a hit, but the Stars invested heavily in the O-line in the offseason, so we think that offense of theirs will do just fine.
Predicted 2012 Record: 13-3, #1 in NE Division
2011 Final Record: 13-3 (1st in NE)
Roster Movement:
Departures: OT Matt Stinchcomb (RET), CB Brandon Flowers (FA), G Scott Tercero (FA), WR Dontrelle Inman (Trade)
Arrivals: CB Jimmy Williams (FA), P Sam Koch (FA), OT Geoff Schwartz (NFL), DE Karmerian Wimberley (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: CB Morris Claiborne, HB David Wilson, WR Chris Givens
Our Analysis: The Federals surprised some by winning the top seed last year, but this is a solid team in every phase. Deuce McCallister is still a beast, and now they can get him some rest by bringing in rookie David Wilson to spell him. Expect the defense to continue to be strong, particularly in the secondary, where Jimmy Williams should slot right in as the team’s top shut down option.
Predicted 2012 Record: 12-4, Just one game behind Philly and 2nd in the NE Division.
2011 Final Record: 6-10 (4th in NE)
Roster Movement:
Departures: LB Piso Tinoisamoa (NFL), TE Anthony Becht (Ret), WR Mark Clayton (FA), WR Santonio Holmes (FA), SS Tom Zbibikowski (FA), DE Tamba Hali (Trade)
Arrivals: FS Scott Shields (FA), DT Brandon Mbane (FA), QB Bryan Hoyer (NFL), TE John Carlson (NFL), CB Daniel Manning (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: OT Donald Stephenson, S Peyton Thompson, WR Mohamed Sanu
Our Analysis: We picked the Generals to compete for the division last year and they did not live up to that expectation. Do we expect that this year? No, but we do think this team has enough talent to fight for a Wild Card. They lost some major players, including 2 wideouts, but they did well in free agency, particularly in snagging John Carlson away from the NFL to replace Anthony Becht. This is a team that is still looking like they have more ahead of them, but they could be a breakout team this year.
Predicted 2012 Record: 9-7, 3rd in the NE and possibly a Wild Card.
2011 Final Record: 9-7 (3rd in NE)
Roster Movement:
Departures: C Melvin Fowler (Ret), CB Ken Lucas (FA), HB Antonio Pittman (FA), FS Shaunard Harts (FA), QB Chris Simms (FA), WR Doug Gabriel (FA)
Arrivals: WR Donte Do (FA), DE Antwan Odom (FA),
Rookies to Watch: LB Melvin Ingram, CB A. J. Davis, S Winston Guy, DE Jonathan Massoquoi
Our Analysis: We just don’t feel confident about the Blitz. They can look very good one week and below average the next. They struggle to turn drives into touchdowns, putting too much on the defense to keep them in every game. We just suspect that they just are not as good as some would have you believe.
Predicted 2012 Record: 7-9, and 4th in the division.
2011 Final Record: 1-14-1 (5th in NE)
Roster Movement:
Departures: HB Tony Hunt (NFL), TE James Whalen (Ret), LB Corey Miller (Ret), WR Chad Johnson (FA), CB Fred Smoot (NFL), LB DeMarcus Tyler (FA), SS Rich Cody (Ret), LB Ike Reese (FA), QB Jamie Martin (FA), OT Joseph Bragg (Trade)
Arrivals: QB Dereck Anderson (FA), CB Brandon Carr (NFL), FS Earl Thomas (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: LB Luke Kuechley,WR Justin Blackmon, DT Akiem Hicks, WR Nick Toon
Our Analysis: Boston fell and fell hard last year, producing the worst record in the league, and, even worse, a lost season for highly touted QB Jake Locker. Locker will get another shot this year, though it is telling that Boston brought in Dereck Anderson just in case he struggles again. Thee loss of Chad Johnson in free agency, along with Fred Smoot, Corey Miller, and Ike Reese also don’t help what is clearly a team in transition.
Predicted 2012 Record: 4-12, 5th in NE Division.
Predicted Order of Finish: 1-Tampa Bay 2-Orlando 3-Atlanta 4-Charlotte 5-Jacksonville
Our Thoughts on the Division: Tampa Bay surprised us a bit last year, finishing much stronger than we expected and earning their 3rd league title. That makes them the team to beat in the SE Division, but as we have seen with the last few champions, returning to a Summer Bowl is no easy feat. We see competition coming from Orlando and Atlanta. We expect Charlotte to take a step back and we just don’t see Jacksonville as being a contender this year. The Bulls could be better, and may not finish in the basement, but we just don’t see them finishing over .500 with the changes they have made this year.
2011 Final Record: 12-4 (1st in SE, League Champion)
Roster Movement:
Departures: DE Marcellus Wiley (Ret), WR Chris Doering (Ret), FB Obafemi Ayanbadejo (Ret), LB Zeke Moreno (Ret), G Steve Sciulo (FA), QB Matt Cassel (FA), WR Earl Bennett (FA)
Arrivals: WR Santonio Holmes (FA), QB T. J. Yates (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: WR Alshon Jeffery, QB Ryan Lindley, LB Caleb MCSurdy, LB Nigel Bradham
Our Analysis: The Bandits put all the pieces together last year and had a championship run in a year when many expected them to struggle. So what happens this year? They have suffered some significant roster losses, but we like their approach to the offseason. They brought in two quality receivers, one through free agency and another in the draft, also drafted at their 2nd key position, linebacker, and have largely filled holes caused by retirement and free agency. This very much looks like a team ready to defend their title.
Predicted 2012 Record: 11-5, 1st in Southeast.
2011 Final Record: 8-7-1 (3rd in SE)
Roster Movement:
Departures: FB Paul Williams (Ret), DT Jarron Gilbert (FA), HB Jacob Hester (FA), WR Leondard Hankerson (Trade)
Arrivals: QB Chad Henne (NFL), HB Tim Hightower (NFL), OT Chris Terry (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: QB Russell Wilson, LB Sean Spence, OG Brandon Washington, DT Jeris Pendleton
Our Analysis: For the second year in a row, the Renegades have been the “first team out”, meaning the team that was closest to a playoff spot without getting one. That has to change. Their offseason was both uneventful and a bit strange. No major losses from the 2011 squad, but no huge gains either. We like the signing of Tim Hightower, but why did they both draft a QB and bring in an NFL QB when they have a proven starter in Eli Manning on the squad? That has to be a sign that the club is not sold on Manning, which cannot go over well with the veteran. That alone is reason for concern, and in a very tough division, that could be enough to keep them on the fringe once again.
Predicted 2012 Record: 9-7, 2nd in the SE Division, but again on the outside?
2011 Final Record: 7-9 (4th in SE)
Roster Movement:
Departures: LB Rahim Abdullah (Ret), SS Brandon Merriweather (FA), G Bobbie Williams (FA), WR Marcus Robinson (Ret), HB Julius Jones (FA), HB Anthony Allen (Trade)
Arrivals: LB Patrick Willis (FA), HB Ladell Betts (FA), FB Marcel Reese (FA), S Tyvon Branch (NFL), WR Matt Jones (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: OT Cordy Glenn, OG Brandon Brooks, CB Brandon Boykin, HB Michael Smith
Our Analysis: The Fire brought in one of the most coveted free agents in the market with LB Patrick Willis. In the draft they tried to address issues on their line, but we are not sure it is enough to make a major move. The defense should be better, which will help, but we are still not sure they have enough playmakers on offense to consistently pull out wins in close games.
Predicted 2012 Record: 8-8, 3rd in SE Division
2011 Final Record: 9-7 (2nd in SE)
Roster Movement:
Departures: LB Raynoch Thompson (NFL), DE Julius Peppers (Ret), G Sean Locklear (FA), WR Anquon Boldin (FA), TE Anthony Hill (FA), FS Nick Collins (FA), FS Corey Hall (FA)
Arrivals: WR Mark Clayton (FA), QB Charlie Whitehurst (NFL),
Rookies to Watch: QB Brandon Wheedon, OG J. R. Sweezy, TE Garrett Celek
Our Analysis: Charlotte improved over the course of the second half last year, and managed a winning record, but they also took quite a few hits. They are clearly building for the future, as the selection of Brandon Wheedon demonstrates. But, will they scuttle this year in order to build for 2013? We will get a sense of that in how they treat Jake Delhomme and Wheedon. The sooner Wheedon sees action the more likely the team is looking at the future.
Predicted 2012 Record: 7-9, 4th in SE Division
2011 Final Record: 3-12-1 (5th in SE)
Roster Movement:
Departures: HB LaBrandon Toefield (NFL), G Michael Moore (NFL), OT Jason Odom (Ret), CB Dereck Combs (FA), HB Kerry Joseph (FA), WR Nate Washington (FA), DT Alan Branch (FA)
Arrivals: QB Chase Daniel (FA), WR Lance Moore (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: DT Fletcher Cox, HB Lamar Miller, CB Coty Sensabaugh, OT Tom Compton
Our Analysis: This is a make-or-break year for QB Tim Tebow. He has shown flashes, especially with his feet, but also as a passer, but consistency and decision-making have not always been there. What is particularly concerning is that the Bulls don’t seem to be doing much to build around him. We look over the Bulls’ roster and we are just not seeing the kind of overhaul that a 3-win team should have to shake up the status quo, and so we predict another status quo year.
Predicted 2012 Record: 4-12, 5th in SE Division
Predicted Order of Finish: 1-Birmingham 2-New Orleans 3-Nashville 4-Memphis
Our Thoughts on the Division: By all accounts, the Nashville Knights, who have won the division the past three years, are looking like a team in transition. Peyton Manning will miss no less than the first 8 games and may not see the field at all, which, in our minds, means Birmingham has the best QB situation this season. They also showed good improvement on defense last year. We see them as possibly one of the fastest risers in the league. New Orleans has several flaws, but still looks like the 2nd best team in the division, especially after we saw how they reacted to Lamar Lathon as head coach last year. Nashville finishes 3rd, with Memphis bringing up the rear unless Ryan Mallett has a major sophomore surge.
2011 Final Record: 7-9 (2nd in South)
Roster Movement:
Departures: WR Arnaz Battle (Ret), FS Clarence Love (Ret), P Kyle Richardson (Ret), FB Shawn Bryson (FA), OT Jeff Backus (NFL), WR Donte Do (FA), DE Karmerian Wimberley (Trade)
Arrivals: SS Pat Watkins (FA), WR Dontrelle Inman (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: OT Riley Reiff, P Bryan Anger, S Christian Thompson, FB Rhett Ellison, TE Dwayne Allen
Our Analysis: Can you win a division by default? Birmingham is in a position to prove you can. They were much improved last year and rookie QB Cam Newton, the league’s ROTY, was a breath of fresh air, but had it not been for the implosion of Jay Cutler and the inability of Nashville to land Andrew Luck, we might very well be predicting Nashville to win the division for a 4th straight year. We don’t think the Stallions are ready for an 11 or 12 win season yet, but 9-7 may well be enough to win a very week Southern Division.
Predicted 2012 Record: 9-7, 1st in Southern Division.
2011 Final Record: 5-11 (3rd in South)
Roster Movement:
Departures: HB Michael Robinson (NFL), LB Calvin Pace (NFL), C Todd McClure (Ret), G Paul Zakauskas (FA), C Josh Sewell (FA), K David Green (FA), LB Bradie James (FA), G Terrance Metcalf (FA), QB Luke McCown (Trade), FS Earl Thomas (Trade)
Arrivals: C Chris Spencer (FA), DT Ra’Shon Harris (FA), K Graham Gano (FA), G Mike Brisiel (NFL), HB Mike Tolbert (NFL), OT Joseph Bragg (Trade), P Matt Allen (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: TE Coby Fleener, S Brandon Taylor, LB Dezman Moses
Our Analysis: We are picking New Orleans to be the main challenger to Birmingham for two reasons, first, they have a veteran QB in Drew Brees at the helm, and second, they have a coach that the players battle for in Lamar Lathon. But, when you look at all the departures in offseason, and the lackluster draft class, it is hard to get too excited about this roster.
Predicted 2012 Record: 8-8, 2nd in Southern Division
2011 Final Record: 8-8 (1st in South)
Roster Movement:
Departures: LB Keith Burns (Ret), LB D. D. Lewis (Ret), OT Jason Fabini (Ret), G Jeb Terry (FA), P Sam Koch (FA), DE Gary Stills (FA), DE Quintin Moses (FA), QB Chase Daniel (FA), LB Terrell Suggs Trade)
Arrivals: LB Jarret Johnson (NFL), QB Peyton Manning (NFL)
Rookies to Watch: OT Bobby Massie, DT Bradnon Thompson, DE Malik Jackson, P Marquette King
Our Analysis: The Peyton Manning signing is generating a lot of excitement, but we expect the weekly updates on his practices will be better news for the Knights than the weekly scoreboard of actual games. This team lost a lot, added not nearly enough, and may have hobbled their defense by sending Terrell Suggs to Oakland for what turned out to be a failed attempt to draft Andrew Luck. The folks in Music City may be excited to see Peyton Manning throwing passes, but it is Quincy Carter who is likely to be under center for most of the season, and that does not bode well for 2012.
Predicted 2012 Record: 5-11, 3rd in Southern Division.
2011 Final Record: 4-11-1 (4th in South)
Roster Movement:
Departures: G Darnell Alford (NFL), FB John Kuhn (NFL), OT Mike Gandy (Ret), CB Kareem Larrimore (Ret), LB Patrick Willis (FA), WR Matt Jones (Trade)
Arrivals: QB Matt Cassel (FA), LB Ryan D’Imperio (FA), G Carl Nicks (NFL), DE Mario Williams (NFL), HB Anthony Allen (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: DT Dontari Poe, DE Jake Bequette, CB Richard Crawford, G Gino Gradkowski
Our Analysis: Here is the deal. The USFL is a QB-Driven league, always has been and continues to be. Based on last year, we are not sure Ryan Mallett is a QB who can get the job done. And while bringing in Summer Bowl hero Matt Cassel is a nice move, we are also not so sure he is the answer. Add to that the loss of their best defensive player, Patrick Willis, in free agency, and the retirement of their All-USFL left tackle, and, well, this just feels like a team that needs to start all over again.
Predicted 2012 Record: 3-13, 4th in Southern Division
Predicted Order of Finish: 1-Pittsburgh 2-St. Louis 3-Michigan 4-Chicago 5-Ohio
Our Thoughts on the Division: The Maulers are primed to make another Summer Bowl run after coming up just short against the Bandits in last summer’s title game. Behind them we see three teams who are all in the range of what a Wild Card team should look like. We are taking a chance that St. Louis, under Coach Arians, will continue to improve and will finally make a playoff appearance. Michigan and Chicago have a lot of questions, the Panthers in the run game, the Machine with a new coaching staff just getting geared up. We have Ohio in the basement again this year as we are just not convinced they have rebuilt a talent pool that got old fast and needed a major overhaul.
2011 Final Record: 13-3 (1st in Central, Conference Champion)
Roster Movement:
Departures: OG Rex Hadnot (NFL), HB Brandon Jacobs (FA), OT Daniel Loper (FA), QB Tee Martin (FA)
Arrivals: G Steve Sciulo (FA), WR Ben Obamanu (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: HB Brandon Bolden, DT Kendall Reyes, S Brandon Hardin, G Senio Kelemete
Our Analysis: The Maulers came so close last year, and were clearly a team with a lot going right. We don’t think they lost much in the offseason, as their roster is about as stable as any in the league. That is a very good sign for 2012, as they should continue to build on a very strong 2011 campaign. The Central Division does feel like it has weakened overall, which means a pretty good path for Pittsburgh to repeat as the #1 seed in the West, a feat we think they will accomplish.
Predicted 2012 Record: 13-3, 1st in Central and in the Conference.
2011 Final Record: 8-8 (3rd in Central)
Roster Movement:
Departures: FB Vontae leach (FA), DE Eddie Freeman (FA), TE Fred Baxter (FA), WR Tiquan Underwood (FA), LB Ryan D’Imperio (FA), SS Coy Wire (Trade)
Arrivals: FB Jerome Felton (FA), G Paul Zakauskas (FA), WR Nate Washington (FA), LB Dan Conner (NFL), WR Eric Weems (NFL)
Rookies to Watch: G Kenechi Osamele, TE Michael Egnew, DE Trevor Guyton, DT Mike Daniels
Our Analysis: When we look across the division, we think that Chicago and Michigan are trending downwards, but the Skyhawks have been slowly and steadily improving under Coach Arians, and we think this could be the year they break through and become a true threat. They were very active in free agency, adding weapons around Josh Freeman, and while their draft is not glitzy, we think they at least targeted some key positions. Are they a juggernaut? Unlikely, but they are good enough to get to 9 or 10 wins and make their first playoff appearance.
Predicted 2012 Record: 10-6, 2nd in Central and a Wild Card.
2011 Final Record: 9-7 (2nd in Central)
Roster Movement:
Departures: LB/DE Igor Olshansky (NFL), HB Thomas Jones (FA), CB Chris Canty (FA), WR Laverneous Coles (NFL), FB Jerome Felton (FA), TE Bennie Joppru (FA), G Mike McGlynn (Trade)
Arrivals: WR Keary Colbert (FA), FB Glen Smith (FA), CB LaDarius Webb (NFL), CB Drayton Florence (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: QB Kirk Cousins, CB Dre Kirkpatrick, WR B.J. Cunningham, C David Molk, DTJerel Worthy
Our Analysis: A long list of departed contributors is concerning, but we do like some of the new faces in Detroit. Keary Colbert is a quality #2 option behind Hines Ward. LaDarius Webb will get a shot to step into Chris Canty’s shoes, and we like the idea of developing a QB like Kirk Cousins behind Brian Griese. That all said, it does still feel like the 2012 Panthers have more questions and fewer answers than the 2011 squad.
Predicted 2012 Record: 8-8, 3rd in Central.
2011 Final Record: 8-8 (4th in Central)
Roster Movement:
Departures: HB Noah Herron (NFL), C Grey Ruegamer (Ret), FS Corey Hall (FA), G Taylor Whitney (FA), WR Andre Brown (FA), OT Charles Spencer (FA), CB Daniel manning (Trade), QB T. J. Yates (Trade)
Arrivals: FB Vontae Leach (FA), TE Anthony Hill (FA), C Darrell Nix (FA), DE Tamba Hali (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: HB Doug Martin, WR Michael Floyd, G Jeff Allen, LB Darius Fleming
Our Analysis: After a run that saw the club make the playoffs in 9 of 10 years, Coach Marty Mornhinweg is out, quickly hired by Portland, and Chicago starts over with a coach who has never been a head coach in the pros, Rutgers’ Greg Schiano. The learning curve could be a steep one, but this club does still have talent at key positions like MLB, QB, DE, and HB. What they lack is a clear identity. We think it will take Schiano the season to define that identity, which means a season of growth but not necessarily of outcomes.
Predicted 2012 Record: 6-10, 4th in Central.
2011 Final Record: 5-11 (5th in Central)
Roster Movement:
Departures: LB Nick Greison (NFL), K Josh Brown (NFL), LB Glenn Cadrez (NFL), TE Stephen Alexander (Ret), HB Kevin Smith (FA), SS Pat Watkins (FA)
Arrivals: LB Bradie James (FA), K David Green (FA), HB Rashad Jennings (FA)
Rookies to Watch: DE Bruce Irvin, HB Isaiah Pead, K Blair Walsh, S Matt Johnson
Our Analysis: The Glory had one of the more productive offseasons in the league, adding talent through the draft in the form of DE Bruce Irvin and HB Isaiah Pead, and in free agency with the signings of Bradie James and HB Rashad Jennings. The run game in particular looks a lot deeper and more diverse, which is good for Vince Young, who struggled last year to carry the entire offense. The defense still looks a bit dicey, and losing both Glenn Cadrez and Nick Greison is not helping. This will be a tough year for the defense, and possibly for the team as a whole.
Predicted 2012 Record: 5-11 again seems about right.
Predicted Order of Finish: 1-Texas 2-Arizona 3-Denver 4-Houston
Our Thoughts on the Division: As tempting as it was to imagine a scenario where Houston jumps right back into the mix and battles the Texas Outlaws, it just never felt realistic. We think that 2012 will look a lot like 2011, with Texas being a step ahead of a pretty good Arizona team, which, in turn, is a step ahead of a mediocre Denver squad, who are still better than a Houston team that needs to consider a rebuild.
2011 Final Record: 12-4 (1st in SW)
Roster Movement:
Departures: LB Rocky Boiman (NFL), LB Jeff Ulbrich (NFL), C Aaron Graham (FA), G Solomon Page (FA), TE Jermichael Finley (FA), WR Ben Obamanu (Trade), P Matt Allen (Trade)
Arrivals: G Anthony Oakley (FA), OT Daniel Loper (FA), HB Arian Foster (NFL), QB Luke McCown (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: LB Vontaze Burfict, C Philip Blake, LB Keenan Robinson, TE Brandon Bostick
Our Analysis: The season Outlaw fans have been waiting for over decades finally came last year. The pieces fell together, their QB had an MVP run, and they got oh, so close to a Summer Bowl. And while they did take some hits in free agency, we like this roster. The biggest loss was the announcement from T. J. Duckett of his retirement at 31, but the Outlaws, unable to move up to select Trent Richardson in the draft, did the next best thing, signing a Duckett clone in HB Arian Foster from the NFL Oilers. Foster should be able to play from day one and, if his body can hold out after a full NFL season, he could find himself over 1,200 yards and on another championship contender.
Predicted 2012 Record: 12-4, 1st in SW Division and battling for the #1 seed.
2011 Final Record: 10-6 (2nd in SW)
Roster Movement:
Departures: CB Jimmy Williams (FA), OT Ed Ellis (FA), DT Kimo Von Oelhoffen (FA), WR Matthew Slater (FA), QB Dave Dickenson (FA)
Arrivals: CB Brandon Flowers (FA)
Rookies to Watch: CB Omar Bolden, QB Nick Foles, WR Juron Criner, LB Nathan Stupar, S Justin Bethel
Our Analysis: Arizona’s 2011 campaign started out with an 8-0 start, but then the wheels started to fall off the bus. Looking at their offseason, we are not sure they have made the moves they need to to get back to the front of the division. Losing Jimmy Williams and Kimo Von Oelhoffen are big hits to the defense, so it looks like the Wranglers may have to depend on LT and David Carr to outpace opponents. Not sure that is a division-winning strategy.
Predicted 2012 Record: 10-6, 2nd in SW Division and a Wild Card.
2011 Final Record: 7-9 (3rd in SW)
Roster Movement:
Departures: DT Montae Reager (Ret), P Brad Costello (Ret), LB Nick Rogers (Ret), WR Keary Colbert (FA), FS David Young (FA), DT Brandon Mbane (FA), K Graham Gano (FA), OT Chris Terry (Trade)
Arrivals: LB Clint Kriewaldt (FA), P David Zastudil (NFL), DT Sione Pouha (NFL), WR Leonard Hankerson (Trade), WR Golden Tate (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: S Jerron McMillian, C Ben Jones, K Greg Zuerlein
Our Analysis: The Denver Gold slid quite a bit behind their usual position last year. Then they lost some key players in the offseason. This is feeling a lot like a team that needs to shake things up. Coach Jauron may have squeezed every last ounce of ability out of his roster and it may well be time to blow things up a bit. We like the Tate trade, but we still look at this club and wonder how they hope to compete with Arizona and Texas without much that scares folks on either side of the ball. This season could be a wake up call for a club that rarely dips below .500 but could dip quite a bit this season.
Predicted 2012 Record: 6-10, 3rd in SW Division
2011 Final Record: 6-10 (4th in SW)
Roster Movement:
Departures: DT Ra’Shon Harris (FA), LB Keith Brooking (Ret), CB Ronde Barber (Ret), FS Brian Dawkins (Ret), QB A. J. Feeley (NFL)
Arrivals: CB Chris Canty (FA), QB Chris Simms (FA), LB Stephen Tulloch (NFL),
Rookies to Watch: CB Janoris Jenkins, CB Josh Norman, DT John Hughes, OT Don Barclay
Our Analysis: It feels somewhat surreal that Houston won a title only 2 years ago. What is even weirder is that good arguments could be made that the 2012 team is closer to that 2010 result than the very disappointing 2011 campaign. This club still has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. We love the acquisition of both Stephen Tulloch and Chris Canty for the defense, but they could end up starting two rookies at cornerback, and that has to worry Coach Philips. It worries us.
Predicted 2012 Record: 5-11, 4th in SW Division.
Predicted Order of Finish: 1-Oakland 2-Los Angeles 3-Seattle 4-Las Vegas 5-Portland
Our Thoughts on the Division: Another 2-team battle as we view Las Vegas slipping a bit and Seattle not quite there yet. Oakland and Los Angeles match up well against each other and are likely to split their series, so a lot will come down to who can do better at consistently knocking off the other three division squads. We do see Seattle as potentially dangerous, and Las Vegas will likely do what they can to exploit the arrival of Chad Johnson to the roster, while Portland just feels like a team spinning its wheels without a true sense of who they are or can become.
2011 Final Record: 9-7 (2nd in Pacific)
Roster Movement:
Departures: LB Mike Maslowski (Ret), C Jeff Saturday (Ret), P Josh Bidwell (Ret), LB Brendon Ayanbedejo (FA), FS Roman Harper (FA), FB Marcel Reese (FA), WR Joey Jamison (FA)
Arrivals: FS Sean Jones (FA), DT Jarron Gilbert (FA), WR Tiquan Underwood (FA), E Cliff Avril (NFL), P Mat McBriar (NFL)
Rookies to Watch: C Peter Konz, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Aaron Brown
Our Analysis: The Pacific is consistently inconsistent, which makes it the hardest division to predict. We could make solid arguments for any of 4 teams to win the division (Sorry Portland), but when we look top to bottom, Oakland feels like the deepest and most talented roster. We Still worry that Ryan Williams is not a true lead back, but the defense is solid, and may have gotten better by adding rookie LB Bobby Wagner and free agent safety Sean Jones. In a very volatile division, we see Oakland as the best of a pretty even foursome.
Predicted 2012 Record: 11-5, 1st in Pacific Division.
2011 Final Record: 10-6 (1st in Pacific)
Roster Movement:
Departures: CB Terrence McGee (Ret), G Alan Faneca (Ret), FS David Givson (Ret). WR Eddie Kennison (Ret), C Chris Spencer (FA), CB Renaldo Hill (FA), WR Bernard Berrian (FA)
Arrivals: CB Marcus Truffant (FA), G Solomon Page (FA), WR Earl Bennett (FA), FS Nick Collins (FA), CB Tracy Porter (NFL)
Rookies to Watch: OT Matt Kalil, DT Alameda Ta’amu, OG Ryan Miller, DE Greg Scruggs
Our Analysis: The Express surprised many by taking the division last year, but they have been underachieving for several years. It was good to see them step up, but can they repeat? They had some pretty big losses in the offseason, particularly in the secondary, but they made the big move, signing Marcus Truffant away from Seattle, and then adding an NFL corner in Porter and a quality safety in Nick Collins. They may be better on defense than in 2011, which should worry the rest of the division.
Predicted 2012 Record: 11-5, and right there with Oakland.
2011 Final Record: 9-7 (4th in Pacific)
Roster Movement:
Departures: G Bill Ferrario (NFL), TE Tyler Eckler (NFL), WR David Boston (Ret), CB Marcus Truffant (FA), HB LaDell Betts (FA), FB Glen Smith (FA0, G Vince Manuwai (FA), LB Clint Kriewaldt (FA)
Arrivals: FS Corey Hall (FA), G Jeb Terry (FA), LB Ike Reese (FA), DT Alan Branch (FA), WR Mike Wallace (NFL)
Rookies to Watch: HB Robert Turbin, S D. J. Campbell, FB Jamize Olawale, G Amini Silatolu
Our Analysis: Of the next 3 teams in the division, we see Seattle as the one in best position to make a move. They have a solid QB, but lost their star receiver to retirement. So, they go out and land an All-Pro NFL receiver, but one who could be a major distraction. If he can stay within the game, Mike Wallace could be a huge boon to the Dragons, but if he acts much as he did his final year in Pittsburgh, he could be a major distraction. We do like Seattle’s other offseason moves, particularly acquiring solid contributors like safety Corey Hall and LB Ike Reese. Not much splash in those signings, but they will be good for this team.
Predicted 2012 Record: 9-7, third in Pacific Division, but could surprise.
2011 Final Record: 9-7 (3rd in Pacific)
Roster Movement:
Departures: WR Kahlil Hill (NFL), TE Brian Koslowski (FA), FS Sean Jones (FA), HB Rashad Jennings (FA), QB Tony Banks (FA), G Antony Oakley (FA), WR Samie Parker (FA)
Arrivals: WR Chad Johnson (FA), LB Ahmad Brooks (NFL), SS Coy Wire (Trade)
Rookies to Watch: S Mark Barron, QB Case Keenum, DE Taylor Thompson
Our Analysis: That sound you hear is the clock ticking on Jake Plummer. There were so many rumors of his retirement that we thought rumors alone could lead him to walk away. But, he is back, and the Thunder got him a brand new toy, one of the best deep ball receivers in the league, Chad Johnson. That combo should be fun to watch, and Johnson’s presence instantly opens up even more room for Marshawn Lynch in the run game. All that is great, but the problem is that the Thunder defense, once very formidable under Jerry Glanville, has gotten weaker and weaker each season, and we think it could be a major problem this year as we just don’t see the depth or quality across the roster that the Thunder once had.
Predicted 2012 Record: 7-9, 4th in Pacific.
2011 Final Record: 5-11 (5th in Pacific)
Roster Movement:
Departures: LB Josh Stamer (NFL), WR Andre Davis (FA), DE Antwan Odom (FA0, QB Dennis Dixon (FA)
Arrivals: DE Eddie Freeman (FA), S Dashon Goldson (NFL)
Rookies to Watch: WR Brian Quick, DE Tyrone Crawford, OT Nate Potter, LB Josh Kaddu
Our Analysis: There was a time when we saw Portland flirting with the playoffs and the division, but they have stumbled, and that led to major changes. Bringing in Marty Mornhinweg, who had a very solid track record in Chicago, seems like a good idea, but it is going to take more than a new coach for Portland to climb back up the ladder. We are not sold on the Stags’ roster overall, particularly at wideout and O-line. We are also not sure the defense has what it needs, as veteran DE Eddie Freeman is good but not explosive, and NFL safety Dashon Goldson is not what we would consider a blue chip signing. Mornhinweg can build a team that will compete, but he may need another year to get the pieces he needs to do so.
Predicted 2012 Record: 4-12, 5th in Pacific.
OUR ALWAYS SHAKY PLAYOFF PICKS
As we review our picks for the divisions, we see the following playoff picture emerge. We have Philadelphia and Pittsburgh both winning the #1 seeds in each conference, setting up dreams once again of a Keystone Clash in the Summer Bowl. Behind the Stars in the East we see Tampa Bay again as the #2 seed, with Birmingham coming in as the 3rd Division winner. Washington, Orlando, and New Jersey get the Wild Card berths. In the West, Texas is again the #2 seed, with Oakland taking the Pacific and the #3 seed. The Wild Cards will be Arizona, Los Angeles, and St. Louis, their first playoff appearance.
We think once again it will come down to Philadelphia vs. Tampa Bay in the Eastern Final, but this time the Stars get the job done. In the West Texas and Oakland face off in the final after an upset of the Maulers, and Texas makes their first Summer Bowl appearance after winning a rowdy game in the Alamodome. The title game in St. Louis will show off two high power offenses, but one has more consistency than the other, as well as more experience, so we are predicting the Philadelphia Stars to join Houston as the league’s only 4-time champions. Philadelphia 42 Texas 38 in a barnburner in the Dome.
EQUALLY SHAKY AWARD PICKS
Our last set of predictions for the year, we take a look at each of the top 5 awards and give you our top 3 candidates for each. We will start with the MVP, move through the Players of the Year, and finish with our Coach of the Year pick.
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
We see two of last year’s finalists returning to battle for the title, with both Philadelphia and Texas as high seeds in the playoff race, we expect both Kurt Warner and Joe Flacco to be among the favorites for an MVP in 2012. The third possible candidate? Well, that is where we pick a bit of a dark horse, and for us that dark horse is a rising star, New Jersey QB Sam Bradford. If New Jersey is competitive this year, as we expect they will be, it will be in large part because Bradford has matured into an elite QB.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
With 3 QBs battling for MVP, we are going to look at other offensive positions for this award. The obvious choice, and our first option, is the engine that pushes Washington’s entire offense, HB Deuce McCallister. The defending OPOTY is primed for another big year and could be a back-to-back winner.
Our second choice is a player who is always among the league leaders but who may actually get a boost this year as he joins a new team. Pairing wideout Chad Johnson with the Run & Shoot scheme of Coach June Jones could very easily produce a 120-catch season and a possible run at the as-yet unreachable 2,000 yard mark. We expect Johnson to be a frequent target for Jake Plummer, frequent enough to put up stellar numbers even as the Thunder struggle to win games.
Finally, we go back to the run game, and this time we look at a frequent “bridesmaid” in this competition, Baltimore’s Ron Dayne. Dayne is consistent, and almost always within range of the rushing title. If he can finally surpass McCallister, and if Baltimore is at all competitive this year, we could see the voters giving Dayne the nod almost as a lifetime achievement award.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
How do you bet against Calais Campbell? He is easily the most dominant player in the league. So, we have to but Orlando’s sack master at the top of the class. Behind him we see the obvious 2nd choice to be Chicago’s Mr. Everything, MLB Brian Urlacher. You know he will be at or near the top of the tackles leaderboard, and he is also likely to be among the leaders at the LB position in passes intercepted. If he can force a fumble here and there or return one of the anticipated picks back for 6, he could give Campbell a run for his money.
Our third pick is a bit of a longshot, but we really like the game that Troy Polamalu has brought to Arizona. Troy’s issue is that “decleating hits” is not a category of statistic that the league tracks. He will never have huge numbers in areas like interceptions or sacks, and it is not uncommon for a safety to fall well behind the league leaders in tackles, but true fans of the game can see every week the huge impact that Polamalu has on the field.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
This is always a tough one to pick, especially in a year when we don’t anticipate any rookie QB’s getting a week one start. Our favorite for immediate impact should be Justin Blackmon in Boston. The first pick of the draft will be starting immediately, but the QB situation in Boston is so shaky that it is hard for us to feel confident that Blackmon will get the kind of numbers that would put him at the top of the class.
Another Cannon could actually have a better showing. LB Luke Kuechly is expected to be on the field a lot right from the opening kickoff of the season. If he is all he appears to be on film, he could easily become a 100-tackle guy in his first year, and that would put him in the running for ROTY without a doubt.
Our final candidate is another dark horse pick. It would take a lot for a tight end to win the award, but we think Coby Fleener in New Orleans is in a perfect spot to make a difference. He will have Drew Brees throwing him the ball, will not draw double coverage with the Breakers’ solid wideouts forcing teams to protect the outside of the field, and he has the kind of hands that could make him a favorite security blanket for Brees. We could see him also as a key target in the redzone. Particularly if New Orleans has a winning year, maybe 9 or 10 wins, we could see Fleener getting some love from the voters.
COACH OF THE YEAR
This one is always tough to predict because it almost always goes to the head coach of a team that surprised us. Getting the most out of an underrated roster tends to be the formula, so each of our picks is a team that is not expected to make a playoff run, but if they do, this coach will certainly get the credit. Of the many options in this category, we think that the most likely to surprise us with a better-than-anticipated club are Herm Edwards in New Jersey, Lamar Lathon in New Orleans, and Tom Ramsey in Atlanta. Here is the thing though, two of those three have already garnered the award in recent years, so that makes it far less likely that they will win another one. If St. Louis can stay close to Pittsburgh, perhaps Bruce Arians gets the credit. That could be the most likely of all the scenarios we have cited.
OK, enough speculation, let’s kick this thing off. We start with a Southwest Showdown as Texas opens their division defense in Denver against the Gold. Then on Saturday we get the Battle of Tennessee, and of two QB’s no one trusts, Quincy Carter for Nashville and Ryan Mallett of Memphis. Saturday Night gives us another firecracker of a divisional game as the Generals and Stars clash in the Meadowlands. Then, on Sunday, we get Divisional battles in Jacksonville, Birmingham, Charlotte, and St. Louis before a very intriguing nightcap that has the defending champs all the way on the opposite corner of the country to face the Seattle Dragons. Should be a good week for football, though we may well see some weather impacted games this week. But, games are games, so let’s get to it. Time for USFL football once again!!
BOLD = NATIONAL BROADCAST BLUE = DIVISOINAL GAME
FRIDAY @ 8PM ET Texas Outlaws @ Denver Gold NBC
SAT @ 12PM ET Boston Cannons @ Washington Federals ABC
SAT @ 12PM ET Michigan Panthers @ Baltimore Blitz ABC
SAT @ 12PM ET Nashville Knights @ Memphis Showboats FOX
SAT @ 4PM ET Los Angeles Express @ Portland Stags ABC
SAT @ 4PM ET Ohio Glory @ Las Vegas Thunder FOX
SAT @ 8PM ET Philadelphia Stars @ New Jersey Generals ESPN
SUN @ 12PM ET Orlando Renegades @ Jacksonville Bulls ABC
SUN @ 12PM ET New Orleans Breakers @ Birmingham Stallions FOX
SUN @ 12PM ET Atlanta Fire @ Charlotte Monarchs FOX
SUN @ 4PM ET Arizona Wranglers @ Oakland Invaders ABC
SUN @ 4PM ET Houston Gamblers @ Pittsburgh Maulers ABC
SUN @ 4PM ET Chicago Machine @ St. Louis Skyhawks FOX
SUN @ 8PM ET Tampa Bay Bandits @ Seattle Dragons ESPN
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