A holiday classic and one of the funniest road movies of all time, 1987's :John Hughes classic features the comedic pairing of John Candy and Steve Martin in a mismatched roadmates epic. In typical road movie format, the two very different men find themselves forced to travel together, each finding ways to annoy and befuddle the other. Throw in some sleep-driving, a shared bed, and a lot of heart and you have that rarest of films, a Thanksgiving story that is also a laugh riot.
One week left, one playoff spot left, so much to play for all across the league. This is what the end of the season brings. We had 2 more teams lock in playoff berths with wins this week, and we now come down to a final week in which 5 of 6 division championships are still up for grabs. We have New Orleans and Houston tied atop the South, Baltimore and Pittsburgh tied atop the Northeast, St. Louis and Michigan even at the top of the Centra, Orlando within a game of Charlotte, and Portland now within a game of Oakland. All of these teams are vying for a title, a high seed, and in most cases a bye week. We have only one slot uncertain, Orlando sitting at 8-7, with a shot at stealing Charlotte’s division title, but with Birmingham breathing down their necks only 1 game back. This is late season football in the USFL and it is rarely more dynamic than this year. Let’s run through all of this week’s action, take a look at the huge, and we mean HUGE week 16 clashes, and get ready for one fantastic finish across the league. We start in Pittsburgh, where the Maulers may not just be the story of the week, but of the year.
Maulers Making Pundits Look Good in 2015
It has almost become cliché to say that our preseason picks are going to be way off. We get it. We often base too much on the year before, or get too excited about a promising rookie or a big free agent deal in the offseason. But this year we got one thing right. We looked at Pittsburgh, a 5-11 team last year, a team that finished dead last in the Northeast Division, and we saw something ready to happen.
We picked the Maulers to emerge this year as the Cinderella story of the league, and we were not only right, but maybe underestimated what was possible. The Maulers are not the 5-11 squad we saw last year, they now sit at 12-3 and are poised to potentially win the top seed in the entire Eastern Conference. They have one game left, they do need some help, but we fully expect them to finish with a stellar 13-3 record after facing New Jersey this week. What did we see in them, and what has emerged this year? We saw talent across the roster, and now that talent is playing with a vision and with an identity and that is the entire story of this season.
Pittsburgh is good on both sides of the ball. Their offense is ranked 2nd in the league, averaging over 425 yards per game (426.9 to be exact). That is due in large part to the emergence of Andy Dalton as an elite USFL quarterback. Just look at 2014 AD vs. 2015 AD and you see what we mean. The 2014 version of the Mauler QB threw for 3,725 yards, not bad at all, but had only 18 TDs to 13 picks. The 2015 version is gunning for an MVP title, likely to pass 5.000 yards and already over 40 touchdowns on the year with one more game to add more. His QB rating jumped from 78.7 to a whopping 128.6. What changed? Diversification.
Dalton is throwing the ball to multiple players he trusts. Adam Thielen has emerged as a true number one threat, one likely to reach 1,600 yards this year. But he is not alone. Victor Cruz is the big play receiver, looking at a possible 900 yards and already over 10 touchdowns on the year. Then there is Jimmie Graham, who is having a monster year with over 1,000 yards while also leading the league in receiving touchdowns. It is not a one man show by any means. Add to that a solid run game with Marcus Lattimore over 900 yards and solid contributions from backup Toby Gerhardt. This is an offense that can put points up and keep the defense fresh.
Let’s talk about that defense for a moment. They rank 9th in points allowed at 19.1 per game, but 6th in yards allowed. They have a 15-sack edge rusher in Jared Allen, oh, and another over 10 with Dwight Freeney opposite him. They have one of the best MLB’s in the game in Paul Posluszny, and a corner in Dunta Robinson who could also finish with over 100 tackles. They have 4 players with 3 or more picks this year, including Poz, Robinson, FS Robert Sands, and the captain of the D, strong safety Sean Taylor. This is a complete team, and a great story. From 5-11, to 12-3 with one game left. The Maulers are for real, and are without a doubt one of the stories of the year.
BALTIMORE BLITZ 34 PITTSBURGH MAULERS 27
The Blitz get their revenge for Week 11’s 38-24 loss at home by going into Pittsburgh and evening the series, while at the same time retaking first place in the NE Division and giving themselves a shot at the top seed in the East. A pretty good day for Baltimore and their fans, and one heck of a game for the rest of us.
This was a game in which neither rushing offense could get much done and the quarterbacks had to take over, but when you are talking about Ben Roethlisberger and Andy Dalton, that is hardly a problem for either club. Dalton would go 19 of 34 for 353 yards and 2 TDs while Big Ben would put up 350 and 4 TDs on a 17 of 28 day, providing plenty of fireworks throughout the game. Pittsburgh had its chances as well, leading at the half and in the 4th quarter before the Blitz stormed back with huge games from both Darrius Heyward-Bey and Brian Hartline to overcome a late deficit and take the W.
The game started with Brian Hartline making a statement on a 34-yard TD catch and run. The “possession receiver” showed he could also make a big play, escaping from the corner, juking the safety and turning an 8-yard completion into a touchdown. The score put the Blitz on the board after barely 3 minutes of action. They would get back on the board again 5 minutes later after forcing a Pittsburgh punt and then hitting on another big play. This time it was an over-the-top throw from Big Ben to DHB as Hayward-Bey was in single coverage (always risky) and got a step on the corner before Roethlisberger hit him in stride for the 51-yard touchdown toss.
The Maulers were beginning to look worried after falling behind 13-0, but Andy Dalton and Victor Cruz got the fans back on their feet with a beautiful 33-yard TD toss. Cruz executed a double move, freezing the corner and giving him room to go deep. Dalton hit him along the sideline and in an instant Pittsburgh was back in the game. After a 3-and-out produced by a nice pass deflection by Mauler CB Keenan Lewis, the Maulers had the chance to take the lead with a TD (Baltimore had missed on their first PAT attempt, giving them only a 13-7 lead.)
Andy Dalton hit 4 of 5 passes on the drive, and Pittsburgh got a defensive PI against the Blitz to put the ball on the 3. From there Marcus Lattimore would take it in. The PAT put the Maulers up 14-13 as the first quarter closed. There would be far fewer fireworks in the 2nd quarter as both defenses started to use more 2-deep safeties to avoid the deep ball, but the game still retained its energy level despite the more defensive focus.
Pittsburgh would keep the hot hand in the 2nd quarter, scoring the only points of the period, another big play, this time from league TD leader Jimmie Graham. It was a perfect seam route, designed to break the 2-deep zone coverage. Baltimore MLB Brandon Jenkins is a solid player, but he cannot keep pace with Graham in the open field, as the Mauler TE ran the seam, got steps on Jenkins and brought in the Dalton pass for 7 to give Pittsburgh a 21-13 lead, a lead they would hold through the half as Baltimore was unable to reach scoring position in the period.
The Blitz would find their game again in the third, another low scoring quarter but one that saw the Blitz pull even thanks to an 8-point score. They did not get a big play against the Mauler D but were able to put together a 14-play drive, thanks in part to two costly defensive penalties against the Maulers, including a rare roughing call against Jared Allen as his swat at the ball turned into a blow to Big Ben’s helmet. The Blitz would score on a short pass from Big Ben to 2nd TE Jacob Tamme out of the goal line formation. With a 2-point conversion toss to Hartline, Big Ben evened the score at 21 and we were in for a dynamic 4th quarter.
Pittsburgh started driving with 3 minutes left in the 3rd, but it was a slow, methodical drive with no play of longer than 7 yards. The drive would fizzle with a dropped 3rd and 5 pass causing the Maulers to settle for 3, but when Andrew Franks’s kick went through the uprights, the Maulers were once again on top. Three minutes later they would add 3 more as a Baltimore 3-and-out turned quickly into another Mauler field goal, this one a 50-yarder from Franks.
Down 6 with 10:57 to play, there was no panic in the Blitz. They started a drive from their own 33, and it did not take long for Brian Hartline to again make good on Baltimore’s big play strategy. This time it was not a short pass turned into a long run, but a nice double move, a rare strategy for Hartline but one that caught the corner off his game. Hartline made a move to the outside and Ben made a pump move that caused the corner to take an inside move hoping to intercept the ball, but the ball was not coming, and Hartline started upfield. Big Ben reset, stepped up in the pocket and heaved the ball deep down the sideline. Hartline grabbed the ball and was off to the races. With Sean Taylor too far to make the angle, Hartline was able to reach the endzone before Taylor could hit him. Too little and too late as the points went up on the board. But, for the second time in the game, Josh Lambo doinked on the PAT, a major concern for the Blitz as they head into the playoffs. Lambo has not been reliable this year, and that could come back to haunt them. So, instead of taking a 1-point lead, once again Baltimore was tied with the Maulers.
The play of the game would come only 5 plays later. Pittsburgh, trying to get out of their own endzone after a bad decision by the return man left them the ball on the 5, pushed the ball with the run, got a first down on the 15, but then got caught with a bad play at a bad time. After a short run by Toby Gerhardt, in for Lattimore, who had suffered an injury in the 3rd quarter, Dalton and the Maulers tried to catch Baltimore in a pass rush by setting up a screen to Graham. The ball was deflected by a rushing Robert Quinn and picked out of the air by LB Brandon Jenkins. Almost as if a revenge play for Graham’s earlier TD, Jenkins blasted past Graham and took the ball the 17 yards to paydirt, putting Baltimore up 7 with 8:02 left to play. It would now be up to the Blitz defense to hold that lead.
Without Lattimore, Pittsburgh would have to use the passing game to move the ball, and Baltimore knew it. The Blitz added pressure with blitzes from Jason Taylor and Adam Archuleta, forcing Dalton to get rid of the ball of risk a sack. It would be a sack from Taylor that would end the Mauler’s first possession. Baltimore got the ball back on their own 22, mustered one first down, but then were forced to punt the ball back to the Maulers with 3:33 left to play. Pittsburgh would have one more shot.
The Maulers immediately connected on a nice play, with Dalton finding Adam Thielen for a 19-yarder on first and 10. It would take 3 downs for them to get another first down, and after that they found it even tougher to move the ball. A holding call brought back a 7-yard completion that would have gotten them to the Baltimore side of the field. Now 2nd and 15, they got back only 3 on their next play, leaving them with a 3rd and 12. Dalton tried to connect with Victor Cruz, but a nicely timed shot from Archuleta kept the speedy Cruz from bringing in the pass. Pittsburgh would have to go for it on 4th and 12. Baltimore settled into a 2-deep zone, sending only 4 at the Mauler QB, but Ellis Wyms somehow broke through a double team to put immediate pressure on Dalton. The Mauler QB had to drop down to his safety valve, but Toby Gerhardt is not Marcus Lattimore. The big back brought the ball in but was almost immediately undercut by the LB and taken down after a gain of only 3. Baltimore took over on downs with 2:21 left to play.
If the Blitz could get a first down the game would end with a kneel down. Ten yards and the Blitz would reclaim first in the division. Anthony Dixon got only 2 yards on first down. On second down, Dixon did not gain anything, plunging into a compacted line that saw the inside run coming. Third and 8 meant that Coach Caldwell would need to make a choice, try another run to kill more time or use the pass to give the offense a better chance to make the first down. Caldwell chose the latter, trusting in his QB. Big Ben did not disappoint, finding Antonio Gates for his 6th catch of the day, and the biggest for the day, as Gates gained 10 yards, and the first down Baltimore needed. With no time outs left, Pittsburgh could not stop the clock and 2 kneels later, the clock hit double zeroes and the Blitz celebrated a tough win, but a key win as they hope to return to the Summer Bowl.
Baltimore now controlled its own destiny. The division and a bye week was theirs to claim next week when they faced off against the Michigan Panthers. Pittsburgh was still headed to the postseason, but they would need help to avoid a Wild Card game in 2 weeks.
HOUSTON 41 MEMPHIS 26
The Gamblers get another huge game from Carlos Hyde and take care of business on the road. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 309 and 4 TDs, including one to his HB as Houston pulled away after a tight first half. The win keeps them on pace with New Orleans and sets up a huge face-to-face matchup next week for the division and a possible one seed.
POTG: Gambler HB Carlos Hyde: 21 Att, 143 Yds, 1 TD, 3 Rec, 58 Yds, 1 TD
MICHIGAN 20 ST. LOUIS 21
St. Louis gets the win they need, leapfrogs over Michigan and controls their own destiny, with a shot to win the Central next week. Eddie Lacy came up big with 2 TDs and over 100 yards rushing and the defense held Michigan out of the endzone for the game’s final 3 quarters as St. Louis came back from a 17-0 deficit to win on a Bobby Rainey TD run in the final 70 seconds of action.
POTG: Skyhawk HB Eddie Lacy: 16 Att, 104 Yds, 1 TD
PORTLAND 18 OHIO 6
Portland gets another road win and now has an actual shot at the Pacific Division title at 9-6. WR Brandon Cooks was cooking, with over 100 yards receiving. Javon Ringer scored the game’s only touchdown and the Portland D held Ohio to only 57 yards rushing and 3 of 11 on third down to lock up a playoff spot and give them a shot at more.
POTG: Stags CB Donte Whitner: 2 Tck, 2 PDef, 1 Int
OAKLAND 17 SAN DIEGO 27
A bad loss for the Invaders as it now puts their division title hopes all on their finale against the Stags. Joey Harrington played well (288 yards and 2 TDs) but the usually dependable Invader D gave up 3 scores to Joe Webb and allowed the Thunder to rack up 283 yards passing. LB Joey Porter’s pick of Harrington in the 4th was a backbreaker as the Thunder get the upset.
POTG: Thunder LB Joey Porter: 9 Tck, 1 Int.
WASHINGTON 24 PHILADELPHIA 10
Deuce McCallister looks ageless with 100 yards on 21 carries and 3 scores, while David Garrard survives 2 picks to get the W. Both teams struggled on third down, going a combined 8 for 28, but Washington got the win thanks to their superstar back, moving to 7-8 and potentially finishing at .500.
POTG: Federals’ HB Deuce McCallister: 21 Att, 100 Yds, 2 TD, 2 Rec, 31 Yds, 1 TD
ATLANTA 3 ARIZONA 34
Arizona is the hottest team in the league, and they manhandled a Fire team that had everything to play for. Both David Carr and Nick Foles threw for TDs and Frank Gore combined with Kadeem Carey to rack up 164 yards and 2 scores on the ground. Kyle Orton was pressured all day, throwing a bad pick into coverage and taking 3 sacks as Atlanta is now eliminated from playoff contention.
POTG: Wrangler WR Larry Fitzgerald: 5 Rec, 105 Yds, 1 TD
NEW ORLEANS 24 CHARLOTTE 21
The Breakers take over the top spot in the Eastern Conference with this win, while Charlotte now has to worry about being caught in Week 16 by Orlando. Charlotte made a game of it late, after falling behind 24-12 early in the 4th, but it was too little too late for the Monarchs as Quincy Carter gets the win, thanks in large part to two Jeremy Hill TD runs and a nice defensive effort.
POTG: Breaker CB Patrick Peterson: 6 Tck, 3 Int.
NEW JERSEY 10 CHICAGO 16
The Machine win their 2nd in a row under Interim HC Dave Wannstadt. This one was close throughout, but the Chicago D was able to limit New Jersey to 2 of 10 on third down and kept them to only 247 total yards. Trevor Siemian looked solid, completing 20 of 25 without throwing a pick, and the combo of Forte and Martin accounted for 125 yards on the ground as Chicago wins again.
POTG: Machine LB Manti Te’o: 8 Tck, 1 Sck
TAMPA BAY 3 ORLANDO 21
Orlando moves to 8-7 and can take a shot at Charlotte for the SE Division next week. They dominate the Bandits despite playing without Russell Wilson (IR). Connor Shaw looked good in his first pro start, completing 17 of 25 for 147 and 2 TDs, but the key to this game as the Orlando pash rush, which got to Pat White 7 times, including twice by DT Montori Hughes.
POTG: Renegade DT Montori Hughes: 3 Tck, 2 Sck
BIRMINGHAM 27 SEATTLE 13
No Cam Newton. No problem, as the Stallions get 338 yards passing from A. J. McCarron to take out the Dragons and remain alive for a Wild Card. McCarron connected with Dontrelle Inman for a 48-yard TD and with Amari Cooper for 133 total yards. Yeldon and Barber combined for 99 yards rushing and Barber added 2 scores as Birmingham stayed alive.
POTG: Stallion QB A. J. McCarron: 20/27, 338 Yds, 1 TD, 0 Int
DALLAS 24 LOS ANGELES 12
A nice road win for the Roughnecks, but wins by Portland and Texas mean they are now eliminated from Wild Card contention. C. J. Spiller spelled Rashard Mendenhall and rushed for 105 on only 17 carries. Johnny Manziel added 3 scores and 238 passing and the defense picked off Aaron Murray twice on the way to doubling up the Express.
POTG: Dallas FS Will Allen: 4 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 Int
JACKSONVILLE 26 DENVER 10
The Gold fall apart and show nothing in a home game against the Bulls. With RGIII out, Adrian McPherson again stepped in and helped lead the Bulls to a road win. Matt Leinart threw 3 picks and was sacked 4 times in a game where the Gold seemed to have nothing in the tank, ensuring only their 2nd losing season in the past 14 years.
POTG: Bulls FS Matt Elam: 5 Tck, 2 Int, 1 Def TD, 1 FF
TEXAS 34 LAS VEGAS 19
Texas gives Las Vegas their first home loss since moving from Nashville, and along the way lock up a Wild Card berth. Joe Flacco threw for 338 and 4 TDs despite being sacked 6 times. Marshawn Lynch added 86 yards rushing and once again Marques Colston was unstoppable, catching 4 for 155, including a 50-yard score.
POTG: Outlaw QB Joe Flacco: 18/25, 338 Yds, 4 TD, 1 Int
One Playoff Spot Left, with Orlando in the Driver’s Seat
While there is certainly a lot of seed swapping possible in Week 16, there is only one unclaimed playoff spot, the 6-seed in the East. Orlando currently holds the spot, sitting at 8-7 with a 6-5 conference record, but right behind them is Birmingham, sitting at 7-8 with an equal 6-5 conference record. Orlando controls their own destiny. They finish the year with a road game in Washington. Rookie Connor Shaw will get the start in this all-important game for the Renegades, his second after Russell Wilson’s injury. A win and the Renegades are back in the postseason for the first time since 2009, a loss and the door is open for the Stallions. Birmingham will be facing arch rival Memphis at home to close out their regular season. If they can win the storied rivalry game, and if Orlando loses, then it is Birmingham which heads to the Wild Card round, thanks to a 7-5 conference record, compared to what would be a 6-6 record for the Renegades. So, it is two backups who have all the pressure, with both Wilson and Newton now on IR, it all depends on Connor Shaw and A. J. McCarron to get the job done.
Lacy Lost for Season Finale & Playoffs
St. Louis has a huge game this week as they head out to Denver, a win providing them the Central Division title and a possible bye as the 2 seed, but their playoff lives, as well as their shot at a division crown, were dealt a blow this week when x-rays revealed that HB Eddie Lacy’s hip injury was not a stinger, but an actual fracture in the hip socket joint. That is a long-term recovery and means that Lacy will miss both this week’s pivotal season finale and the entire playoff run for the Skyhawks. Lacy, who has racked up 1,112 rushing yards this year is shuttered for the remainder of the season, meaning that St. Louis will have to go with little used backup Bobby Rainey as their lead back.
Rainey has had only 48 carries all year, used more as a receiving back on 3rd down, but now he and 3rd stringer James Ridley will share carries as St. Louis battles their way into and through the playoffs. This is a big hit for a Skyhawk team that has been playing with backup QB Ricky Stanzi under center for the past month. Earning the bye week could mean that the Skyhawks will see Josh Freeman back under center in the divisional playoffs, giving them a better chance at compensating through the passing game for the departure of Lacy. So it is up to Stanzi to get them there by winning in Denver against a Gold team with nothing to play for (and nothing to lose).
Week 15 Sets Up Huge Games in South, Southeast, and Pacific
With only 1 division title locked up, there are important matches all across the league in Week 16. The most dramatic will be Sunday Night when the 12-3 Houston Gamblers head to New Orleans to take on the 12-3 New Orleans Breakers, the winner coming out with the Southern Division title and a pretty good shot at the top seed in the Eastern Conference. New Orleans currently holds that position, and would retain it with a win. Houston could grab the division with the win, but may need help to get the top seed even at 13-3. Good news for the Breakers ahead of the game as it appears that Drew Brees will be back under center in what should be a dynamic matchup of two outstanding teams.
The NE Division situation is not quite as cut and dry, but the stakes are just as high. Pittsburgh is in New Jersey while Baltimore hosts the Michigan Panthers. A win by the Blitz and they are the NE Division champion and will get a bye week. A loss to a very tough Panther team and the door is opened for the Maulers to jump ahead of them, claim the Division, the bye, and the chance to possibly snag the top seed in the East (if New Orleans falls to Houston). New Jersey is rumored to be starting rookie Brett Hundley this week, which gives the Maulers a very good chance to move to 13-3, putting the pressure on Baltimore to outlast Michigan.
Michigan is still in its own division race. A win and a St. Louis loss in Denver gives the Central Division to the Panthers, with a possible bye week in the mix as well. Neither St. Louis or Michigan can catch Arizona, who is now guaranteed the 1 seed, but they can land the 2-seed which also comes with the much coveted bye and a home divisional game.
Finally, in the Pacific, Oakland’s loss last week opens the possibility for Portland to overtake the Invaders when the two face off this week. A win by the Stags leaves both teams with identical 10-6 records. The two would also post identical 5-3 Division records, but Portland would have the edge in Conference record at 8-4 to Oakland’s 7-5 mark, giving them the title in classic come from behind fashion.
Tampa Bay Sticking with Shula
It is an understatement to say that Tampa’s current 3-12 record is a huge disappointment. While many expected the Bandits to struggle with the losses of QB Daunte Culpepper to retirement and WR Vincent Jackson to the NFL, the acquisition of several free agents to fill the receiver spots and the trade with LA to acquire Mark Sanchez were at the very least expected to be stop gaps as the team rebuilt for the future. Those stopgaps, especially the Sanchez acquisition, simply did not pan out and the Bandits fell all the way to the basement of the SE Division.
But, it appears this week that the ownership in Tampa Bay is not putting the blame for the collapse of the team on Head Coach Mike Shula. Shula got a vote of confidence and a clear statement from the club that he will be back in 2016 to lead the Bandits once again. This is really not a surprise since Shula did win the Bandits at league title in 2011 and posted a 12-4 record just last season. With an overall record of 43-36 he has proven he can win in Tampa Bay and the club is ready to rebuild with Shula at the helm. Expect some changes, especially at QB in the offseason, as Sanchez is a free agent as of 8 days from now, but it seems safe to say that Mike Shula will not be one of those changes.
Andrus Coaching One Last Game in Columbus
While Mike Shula got the vote of confidence in Tampa Bay, quite the opposite happened with Bart Andrus in Ohio. Andrus was informed this week that he would finish the season in Columbus with this week’s home finale against Chicago, but that he would be released after that game, a bit of a pre-Black Monday nod to reality. Andrus had the unenviable task of replacing Ohio Glory legendary coach Al Luginbill, who won back-to-back titles and ran an undefeated season in 2002. Andrus came in 9 years later in 2011 in a clear rebuilding mode. Following two 5-11 seasons signs pointed to a recovery as Ohio won 8 games in 2013 and again in 2014, but this year saw the club take a huge step back, uncertain at QB and inconsistent elsewhere on their way to what is now a 4-11 season.
Andrus, who stepped in from DC to head coach has simply been unable to build either a strong defensive squad or a consistent offense in his 5 seasons with the Glory. A loss this week to Chicago would drop Ohio below the Machine and into last place in the division, so a coaching change is hardly unanticipated. Ohio will join Chicago in the search for a new leader as soon as the season begins.
Only one playoff spot remains, with Orlando controlling their role and Birmingham hoping for some help. Portland and Texas wrapped up Wild Card berths this week, and now the Stags could even take a shot at Oakland for the Pacific. Arizona has clinched the one seed in the West. The East is a lot messier. New Orleans wins the top seed with a win against Houston, but Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Houston could all have a chance as well to get that coveted home field advantage.
Washington, New Jersey, Atlanta, Dallas, Seattle, and Las Vegas join the other eliminated teams this week, though the Stallions, Generals and Roughnecks are still hoping for a moral victory of reaching 8 wins this season.
Eddie Lacy’s injury is a big hit for the Skyhawks and his is the only new IR injury to teams in the playoff field, with several other players missing one game as they join IR with non-playoff teams. Other injuries that have the potential of impacting the playoff picture include the possible loss of CB Reggie Smith from the Maulers for up to 4 weeks, though a 2-week absence is also possible, and while expected to be back for the playoffs, the Maulers go into their game with New Jersey, a game that could win them the division, without starting HB Marcus Lattimore, who injured his wrist late in last week’s game.
OUT
HB Eddie Lacy STL Hip IR
G Steve Edwards PHI Hamstring IR
G Chadwick Hodges JAX Ribs IR
T Jon Stinchcomb LV Arm IR
CB Reggie Smith PIT Back 2-4 Weeks
C Brad Meester POR Ankle 2-4 Weeks
CB Deon Grant OAK Wrist 1-2 Weeks
HB Marcus Lattimore PIT Wrist 1-2 Weeks
DOUBTFUL
LB Aldon Smith STL Pinched Nerve
G Aaron Sears WSH Back
WR Denarius Moore LV Hamstring
QUESTIONABLE
CB Mike Mickens ARZ Hip
QB Jake Locker DAL Hand
WR Mike Wallace SEA Shoulder
QB Robert Griffin III JAX Concussion
WR Nick Toon SD Concussion
WR Deion Branch WSH Neck
Playoff Scenarios
We have already touched on the playoff picture in several other sections of the report, but thought we should make the situation as clear as possible for the teams in contention, so here is our team-by-team rundown of all the scenarios in play as we enter Week 16, starting with the most secure in Arizona and moving to the last remaining Wild Card hopeful in Birmingham.
ARIZONA (12-3)
The Wranglers have locked up both the SW Division, with a 3-game lead on Texas, and the top seed in the Western Conference, with 2-game leads over the three 10-5 clubs. So, expect them to rest some starters in this week’s game as they coast into a bye week and prepare to face a Wild Card Game winner.
NEW ORLEANS (12-3)
Neither the division nor the top seed are assured for the Breakers, but they have it all in their own control, so they are our 2nd rated team when it comes to playoff certainty. A win at home over Houston and they lock up both titles, Division Champion and Eastern Conference Top Seed. A loss and they drop all the way to the Wild Card round and could, conceivably even be a 5-seed with no home playoff games. Talk about incentive.
BALTIMORE (12-3)
A win and the Blitz take the NE Division crown and earn a bye week. If they also get a loss by New Orleans to Houston they likely outpace the Gamblers and reclaim the top seed in the conference. Even without that, they would earn the bye as division champion. A loss and they drop into the Wild Card round, though likely would find themselves as the 4 seed with a home game in the first round.
HOUSTON (12-3)
Another club with destiny in their own hands. They win the South with a victory in New Orleans. That could potentially land them a top seed as well, but they would need help to jump over the contenders from the NE Division. Not impossible, but not in their control. They do control their ability to earn a bye, so expect full intensity as they head to the Super Dome this weekend.
PITTSBURGH (12-3)
The Maulers are rooting for Michigan to upend the Blitz, because a Baltimore loss paired with a victory over the New Jersey Generals would give Pittsburgh the NE Division and a bye week. New Jersey is said to be staring their USC rookie QB, Brett Hundley, so there is a lot of confidence in Pittsburgh that the Maulers can get their part done, but they will be huge Michigan Panther fans as well, hoping to claim their first division title since returning to the NE Division from a long stint in the Central as a rival to the Panthers.
ST. LOUIS (10-5)
Another team that controls their own destiny, the Skyhawks are depleted with the loss of Eddie Lacy and still with Ricky Stanzi at QB, but they face a pretty deflated Denver squad in the finale. A win in Denver gives St. Louis both the Central title and the 2 seed, which comes with a very desirable bye, especially important for them as they hope to get Josh Freeman back over the next 2 weeks.
OAKLAND (10-5)
The Invaders let one slip this week in San Diego, but they can recover by taking care of business at home against Portland in the finale. A win against the upstart Stags and Oakland wins the Pacific. If they get the added bonus of a Denver upset of St. Louis and a Baltimore win over Michigan and Oakland would earn the 2 spot and its lovely bye. A loss to the Stags would be bad, dropping Oakland possibly as far as the 6 seed and all road games in the playoffs.
CHARLOTTE (8-7)
Another club that has not taken care of business in the final weeks of the year and could see their division title fade away. They have a very winnable game in LA this weekend, and a win would lock up the SE Division title for the Monarchs, but if they stumble again, the Orlando Renegades are right there and could jump over them to take the title, pushing Charlotte to the 6 seed and a road playoff game.
MICHIGAN (10-5)
Things have gotten a little tougher for the Panthers. They have a very tough matchup this week, heading into Baltimore to face a Blitz team that has a lot to play for. They need to beat the Blitz on the road, and hope that Denver rises up against St. Louis if Michigan wants to reacquire the top spot in the Central that they have held for most of the year. Anything short of that and they are a Wild Card team, and a loss in Baltimore could drop them out of even a home playoff spot.
PORTLAND (9-6)
It is safe to say that very few people expected Portland to be in a position to snag the Pacific Division away from the Invaders, but if they can upend Oakland this week in the Colosseum, well, then the Stags are your Pacific Division Champions. Pretty good for a club that spent most of the season unable to win on the road. They have won their last 2 road games, and a third would be the perfect way to finish up a surprisingly strong regular season and give them a nice home playoff game for the fans in the Rose City.
TEXAS (9-6)
The Outlaws don’t have a lot on the line this week, but if they can get a win in their season finale against a Wranglers team that is going to rest some starters and the Outlaws have an outside chance of moving from a road Wild Card game to hosting the matchup. They need help to move from 6th to 4th, primarily victories by Oakland over Portland and Baltimore over Michigan, but both the Invaders and Blitz are favored, so this is not out of the question.
ORLANDO (8-7)
The Renegades are in perhaps the most unique position of any team in this season’s final week. If they lose, they could be out of the playoffs with a Stallions win. If they win, they could take the division title if Charlotte stumbles. We (and they) know that the key to their season is to get a victory over Washington this week. That ensures them no worse than a Wild Card spot, and could get them the division.
BIRMINGHAM (7-8)
Stallion fans will be rooting hard for the Washington Federals this week. If the Feds can even their record at 8-8 by beating Orlando it gives Birmingham the window they need to jump over both clubs. If the Feds win and the Stallions hold off Memphis in their big rivalry game, then the Stallions, and not Orlando, snag the final playoff spot in the East. They will have to do it once again with A. J. McCarron under center, but it seems that Memphis may also bench Eli Manning and go with Matt McGloin, so Birmingham likes their chances.
Bell Cow or Committee?
Fifteen weeks down, one to go, and we decided to look at one issue that is constantly debated across the country, in both the USFL or the NFL. Is the Bell-Cow Back a thing of the past? With more and more teams using a Runningback-By-Committee structure, we wondered whether we were seeing the last of the lead back, main back, or bell cow back concept for the position. So, we did some digging, and we looked at the teams with balanced attacks vs. single back attacks. What did we find? Glad you asked.
First off, we found only 5 teams that had one back receive 70% of the team’s rushing attempts. Not surprisingly 4 of the 5 have backs who are among the league leaders. They include Washington, with Deuce McCallister leading all backs in the league with 83.9% of the carries for the Feds. Next up was the league leader, LeVeon Bell in Michigan, who has 77.7% of all carries for the Panthers. The next three are Carlos Hyde in Houston (77.3%), MJD in New Jersey (72.6%), and, the one surprise, Jeremy Hiil in New Orleans (72.1%). We found a few teams that have carries split among 3 players, often teams like Birmingham where the QB is a big run threat as well, and several teams where there is almost an even split between two backs. This last category is who we would consider the true back-by-committee teams.
In the split backfield group we find Baltimore with an even 44/44 split between Anthony Dixon and Kerwynn Williams (152-144 carries each). Next up is Texas, with a 42-40 split between Chris Johnson and Marshawn Lynch, though we must acknowledge that Lynch has not been with the team for the entire season. Next up is Las Vegas, with Montario Hardesty and LeGarrett Blount creating a true Lightning & Thunder mix of 52%-48%. The top five is rounded out by Oakland (50/46) and Philadelphia (48/42). What do all these teams have in common? They are all considered pass-first teams, teams near the bottom of the league in the number of carries overall, with Baltimore posting the fewest rush attempts in the league, a mere 316, fewer than several individual backs.
When we look at success, however, what we see is that it is possible to win with either strategy. In Michigan, Houston, and New Orleans we have a 1-back system and we have 3 solid playoff teams. But we also have solid playoff contenders in the split-back group, with Baltimore, Texas, and Oakland right there as well. And, of course, your HB system does not guarantee wins, proven by Washington and New Jersey among the 1-back clubs and Las Vegas and Philly in the split back group. So what is the message?
We think it is pretty basic. If you have a guy who can make it happen, who can take the wear and tear and still produce big numbers, why take carries away? Let LeVeon, Deuce, and Carlos eat. But if you have two guys with very different styles, two guys who do better when fresher, then go with a twin-back strategy. Let Dixon run inside and Williams outside, or use Thunder & Lightning to keep teams guessing. And, since we did not bring it up, if your QB can run as well, make use of that, but be careful, that comes with a price, as both Birmingham and Orlando discovered with recent injuries to their star QBs, both injured on run plays.
Three USFL Coaches Who Deserve HOF Consideration
Two weeks ago we were treated to the 2015 Hall of Fame Class, six amazing players, but since then one of the discussions in our bullpen has been around how few USFL Head Coaches are in the Hall.
The Class of 1998 saw two coaches enter with Michigan head man Jim Stanley and Tampa Bay’s Steve Spurrier getting inducted. Two years later in 1998 it was Dick Vermeil and Sam Rutigliano, but since then we have only had one coach make the Hall, Philadelphia, Oakland, and Memphis coaching legend Jim Mora Sr. That is it 5 head coaches in almost 35 years of USFL football. And, yes, we recognize that with coaches often having short careers, bouncing teams, even bouncing between two leagues, it is hard for a coach to get such a reputation in one league to merit induction, but this seems to be a ludicrously low number. So, we went back through the annals of the USFL, looked over every coach not currently in the hall, looked at titles, at records, and we think we have 3 men who deserve the attention of the Hall. Here are our picks:
Ray Willsey (HOU 1990-2000)
Our first pick is overdue. How is Willsey not in the Hall of Fame with the 11-year run he had in Houston? We are talking about a coach that won two league titles and had the Gamblers in the Summer Bowl 4 times. His record in his 11 USFL seasons? How does 99-75-2, a .562 winning percentage, for a decade. That is a coach who deserves some kudos.
Al Luginbill (OHIO 1999-2010)
You knew Al’s name had to be here. Back to back titles, an undefeated season, and taking an expansion team from the bottom to the pinnacle of the league in only 3 seasons. That is impressive. Luginbill’s overall record in Ohio? Let’s try on 113-64-1, a ludicrously good .635 career win percentage. Oh, and he was also 9-6 in the playoffs, including those two 3-game runs to win the title in 2002 and 2003. It has been 5 years, so why was Luginbill not inducted this year? Not even nominated? Maybe it is because he could still come back. After all the HOF was not really ready for Steve Spurrier to do so when they enshrined him back in 1998, but that should not be a reason to delay on such a clearly meritorious nomination.
Bill Parcells (NJ 2001-2006)
We get it, a 6 year stint in the USFL is not enough to really be seen as a USFL legend and Hall of Famer. But in those 6 years he did win 2 titles for the Generals. When you add that to 2 NFL titles with the NY Giants, you have to recognize the man sometime. The hope is that he will be nominated by the NFL this year, after extending his career first as a USFL coach and then returning to the NFL as a General Manager. If not, then Bill Parcells may be the example needed for the Hall to consider a dual-league nomination process. If not him, then we are sure when Tom Brady retires, after 2 USFL titles (with Parcells and the Generals) and three NFL titles with the Cowboys, something will have to be done. Let’s not wait for Brady, let’s give the Big Tuna the honor of being the first dual league nominee.
Honorable Mention: There are plenty of coaches with long tenures, plenty with 1 title to their name, but there are very few who can boast both. Some who deserve potential consideration include Birmingham’s Ron Ehrhardt, Orlando’s George O’Leary, Pittsburgh’s Ted Marchibroda, Denver’s Dick Jauron (once he retires), and Houston’s Wade Phillips (also upon retirement.
Orlando Agrees to Update Logo
It appears that a combination of legal and public pressure has made its way into the boardroom in Orlando. The Renegades announced this week that out of respect for the concerns of the native peoples of Florida and the nation, they have agreed to work with Adidas and the USFL design team to reimagine their team imagery and remove references to Native American imagery such as the Tomohawk, a symbol which has adorned the Renegade helmets since the team’s inception in 1987.
This decision is not one necessarily popular with Renegade Nation, as a recent fan poll showed that 68% of self-described Renegade fans wanted the team to retain their trademark tomahawk logo. But, with real potential for the logo to be compromised by a lawsuit claiming civil rights violations and seeking to remove the trademark from the logo, a move that would make it impossible to protect its use, the team may have made the move despite pressure from their fanbase to retain it.
This is just one of several organizations and universities across the country that are recognizing the concerns of Native peoples and altering their name, logo, and identity. Whether it is shifts such as the St. John’s Redmen to the Red Storm, the retirement of Chief Illiniweck at the University of Illinois, or recent shifts away from Native American imagery by the Cleveland Indians (replacing Chief Wahoo with a block C on their caps) or the Atlanta Braves (removing the tomahawk design on the jersey), the movement of several Native groups across the country, and the unity within that movement to file class-action suits in federal court, have produced enough negative press and potential legal entanglements to move the needle on this issue.
The Renegades have not announced a timeline for a new identity, though they did say that they expect to be garnering direct fan feedback about logo options as part of the process. They also clarified that the name of the team will not be altered, the club will remain the Orlando Renegades, but that the ties to Native American imagery will be retired and replaced by another design that evokes the Renegades culture of “passion, strength, and aggressiveness”. We will stay tuned to see how Orlando goes about this shift, and will include news as it is officially released.
Week 16 brings us the special 2-day schedule, with teams set up to scoreboard watch as they play. We will give you the playoff implications of each game as we run through the schedule.
SAT. @ 12PM LAS VEGAS (6-9) @ JACKSONVILLE (4-11) ABC Regional
No playoff implications.
SAT. @ 12PM CHICAGO (3-11-1) @ OHIO (4-11) ABC Regional
No playoff implications.
SAT. @ 12PM ATLANTA (6-9) @ TAMPA BAY (3-12) FOX
No playoff implications.
SAT. @ 4PM SEATTLE (6-9) @ SAN DIEGO (6-9) FOX Regional
No playoff implications.
SAT. @ 4PM PHILADELPHIA (5-10) @ DALLAS (7-7-1) FOX Regional
No playoff implications.
SAT. @ 8PM ARIZONA (12-3) @ TEXAS (9-6) NBC
Division is settled. Will impact seeding for Texas.
SAT. @ 8PM CHARLOTTE (8-7) @ LOS ANGELES (4-11) ESPN/EFN
Charlotte wins SE Division with a win.
SUN @ 12PM MICHIGAN (10-5) @ BALTIMORE (12-3) ABC
Baltimore wins division with a win.
Michigan wins Central with a win and St. Louis Loss.
SUN @ 12PM PITTSBURGH (12-3) @ NEW JERSEY (6-9) FOX
Pittsburgh wins division with a win and a Baltimore loss.
SUN @ 12PM ST. LOUIS (10-5) @ DENVER (6-9) NBC
St. Louis wins division with a win.
SUN @ 4PM ORLANDO (8-7) @ WASHINGTON (7-8) ABC
Orlando clinches playoff spot with a win.
Paired with a Charlotte loss they win the SE Division.
SUN @ 4PM MEMPHIS (5-10) @ BIRMINGHAM (7-8) FOX
Birmingham can enter the playoffs as the 6 seed
with a win and an Orlando loss.
SUN @ 4PM PORTLAND (9-6) @ OAKLAND (10-5) NBC
Oakland wins the division with a win.
With a loss, Portland ties for the division lead
and we go to tiebreakers.
SUN @ 8PM HOUSTON (12-3) @ NEW ORLEANS (12-3) ESPN/EFN
The winner of this game wins the Southern division
and has a shot at the top seed in the East.
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