The final film in the 2016 parade of Hollywood road & football movies is the lighthearted jab at the 1987 NFL strike, a film about the replacement players who took over during a lockout and what happened when the regulars returned. Starring Keanu Reaves as "never was" QB Shane Falco, the rag tag group of replacement players goof and spoof their way through a pretty fun piece of fluff.
The 2015 USFL regular season came to an end with a few surprises and some confirmations. We confirmed that Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Houston are pretty good teams, that Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Hasselbeck, and Joe Flacco can sling it, and that being hot at the right time can make all the difference. Just ask the Portland Stags, whose final month and Week 16 victory in Oakland propelled them from .500 all the way to a 2 seed, a bye, and a home playoff game in 2 weeks. Even fans in the Rose City did not see that coming 4-5 weeks ago. On the flip side, we saw Oakland swooning and Charlotte barely hanging on to their division as Orlando locked up the final playoff spot to be won. A big week to be sure, and we will recap it and preview the Wild Card Weekend to come in this week's edition.
Portland Makes Huge Move in Season’s Final Week
It was certainly not expected when the season began. Not suspected at midseason, when the Stags were 4-4 and had not yet won a road game, and not even on our radar just a few weeks ago, but the Portland Stags are the Pacific Division Champions. How did they do it?
Well, it starts with the club finally figuring out how to win some road games down the home stretch. Their first road win of the year came in Week 12, when they topped the LA Express. They would win two more road games in the final two weeks of the season to finish the year at 10-6. They would also get some help. While Portland was winning 5 of their final 6 games, including 3 road wins, the Oakland Invaders, who at midseason were well out in front of the division at 6-2, were finishing the year with 3 losses in their final 4 games, including this past week’s 17-12 defeat at the hands of the one team that could take away their division title.
So it was a combination of Oakland’s late season swoon and Portland’s late season surge that gives the Stags their first division title since joining the league in 2008 and only their 3rd playoff appearance. The 10-6 Stags not only captured the Pacific Title, but thanks to both Michigan and St. Louis going down to defeat in the season’s final week, Portland found themselves with an almost unthinkable 2 seed and a bye in next week’s Wild Card playoff. These are lofty heights for a team that has never had 10 wins in a season and never escaped the Wild Card round in the two years they qualified for a playoff spot.
A lot of the credit for the success of the Stags has to go to first year coach Pep Hamilton. The former Baltimore Blitz OC has brought with him some innovative offensive schemes and an air of confidence. The Stags responded with a balanced offense, but also with one of the league’s most consistent defenses. The Stags, and veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, have been good enough to keep star rookie QB Marcus Mariota on the bench for most of the year. The Oregon rookie’s only appearances were a Week 13 mop up duty and a Week 14 start as Fitzpatrick recovered from injury.
It was yet another 1,200 yard season for Jonathan Stewart, his 5th in the past 6 seasons, but it was also a good season for a very undervalued receiving corps. Second year wideout Brandin Cooks became the main man, catching 85 balls for 909 yards, but it was a group effort, with Brian Quick and trade acquisition Alshon Jeffery also putting up solid numbers. Add in TE Jordan Cameron’s 65 catches and you have an offense that distributes the ball to multiple targets.
On defense Portland knew they could count on LB Channing Crowder, who again was among the league leaders with 118 tackles on the year, but they also got a strong year from DT Jason Fisk (69 tackles), and the secondary led by FS Donte Whitner. The Stags played a lot of tight games, evident in their 18.3 PPG average and their 18.0 PPGA average. They won more than they lost when games were within 1 score, taking a final 7-2 record in games with a margin of 8 or fewer points. They rarely defeated themselves, and they believed they could make a late run. Now that late run has them resting up for the Divisional Round and toting “2015 Pacific Division Champions” gear.
HOUSTON GAMBLERS 17 NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS 22
It was not the highest scoring game of the year, nor the most back-and-forth, but the sheer importance of the Gamblers-Breakers showdown, with the Southern Division Title on the line and both clubs entering at 12-3, that made this our obvious game of the week. What also made it exciting was the way the scoring developed, with Houston looking unstoppable at 17-0 in the 3rd quarter, only to have New Orleans claw their way back and on top by game’s end.
Both clubs moved the ball well in this game, but momentum took a huge turn midway through the 3rd and Houston never recovered as the Breakers just kept chipping away at what had initially seemed an insurmountable lead. Houston had built the lead after a very slow first quarter, when they opened the 2nd with a long 12-play, 7-minute drive that produced 7 thanks to Mike Evans’s one-handed grab of a fade route ball in the endzone. They added to the lead early in the 3rd when Matt Hasselback found Roy Williams open deep on the 2nd play from scrimmage, a perfectly executed play action fake that helped Williams get open for the 83-yard touchdown throw. This play silenced the fans in the Super Dome, and by the time Houston added a 48-yard field goal on their next drive, fans were noticeably antsy about New Orleans’s lack of production.
The comeback would start off slowly, with the Breakers finally getting on the board, but only in a consolatory way, after failing to score on 3 tries from the 5-yard line, they settled for a 21-yard field goal. The momentum shift would start to be felt on the very next play, when LB Kevin Minter stepped in front of a ball intended for Houston TE Vernon Davis, picking off the pass deep in Gambler territory. The Breakers again had to settle for a field goal, but now down only 11, they had a newfound sense of urgency, and Houston began to sense that all was not going their way.
The final period began with New Orleans adding another field goal to pull within 8 at 17-9. It got even worse for the Gamblers when Matt Hasselbeck, usually a paragon of accuracy, let loose a ball that was far too high for his underneath receiver, far too short for his deep receiver, but just right for CB Randall Gay. Gay picked off Hasselbeck at mid field and only 6 plays later Drew Brees found Kenny Britt for a 7-yard TD. A 2-pointer would even the score with 4:23 left to play, but Brees could not connect with Early Doucet and the Breakers found themselves down 2 with time left, if they could shut down Houston one more time.
They would do just that on a 3-and-out. First down saw them stuff Carlos Hyde behind the line. The Breakers had defended Hyde well all game. He would finish the day with only 33 yards rushing. On second down, Hasselbeck connected with TE Dante Rosario, but only for 4 yards. On third and 7, Hasselbeck would try to connect with Mike Evans, but Randall Gay was there again, this time breaking up the pass and forcing a quick punt from the Gamblers. Down only 2, the Breakers knew that they had two missions on this last drive, to put at least 3 on the board and to use as much clock as they could.
The Breakers received the ball on their 33 after a solid punt from Houston. With just over 2 minutes on the clock and 2 time outs left, they were certainly in position to get the ball into range for kicker Caleb Sturgis. They used short passes to get the initial first down of the drive, connecting with Kenny Britt and Donnie Avery over the middle as Houston used a shell coverage to defend the sidelines. After spiking the ball at the 48, a draw play to Jeremy Hill garnered 8 yards and a quick strike to Coby Fleener got the Breakers into Houston’s side of the field with just over 1 minute left to play. Time out New Orleans. They had one left. Another draw play garnered only 4 yards, but on 2nd down, New Orleans got a nice gain as Brees hit Doucet for 18 yards, down to the Houston 30 and within field goal range.
Coach Lathon called for inside runs to set up Sturgis with an easier kick. First down produced no yards, but on second down, as Brees came to the line, he noticed that his one wide out, Tyler Lockett, was left almost uncovered by a corner who was creeping towards the line to cut off any inside runs. Brees audibled to a fly route for the diminutive Lockett, stunning Coach Lathon, but producing an easy 30-yard TD pass. Yes, there was too much time left on the clock, but after adding the PAT, the Breakers were up 5 with only 33 seconds left, meaning that Houston would need to go the length of the field to score a TD.
Houston, who had struggled to move the ball ever since the midpoint of the 3rd quarter, continued to miss the mark, with consecutive passes to Mike Evans and Vernon Davis going uncaught and turning the ball back to New Orleans, who celebrated the win and the division title as they knelt the ball down one last time and then ran along the outer ring of the stadium, high fiving the fans in the front row. The Breakers had won their 4th consecutive Southern Division title, and knocked off a very tough rival new to the division in 2015.
PORTLAND 17 OAKLAND 12
As we reported earlier, the Stags made good on their late season surge, winning the Pacific and earning a 2 seed with a big road win in Oakland. This one goes to the defense, which held Oakland to only 12 points and picked off Joey Harrington twice, including a 4th quarter redzone pick that helped Portland hold off the Invaders. On offense, the star was Qb Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had a 27 of 35 day, with 288 yards and 2 scores, far better than Harrington’s 167 yards.
POTG: Stags LB Channing Crowder: 8 Tck, 1 Int
ST. LOUIS 9 DENVER 27
No Eddie Lacy, and no energy led to the upset loss from St. Louis in Denver. St. Louis converted only 1 of 13 third downs and Ricky Stanzi was sacked 4 times as Denver played with a lot of pride to reach 7-9 on the year. DeMarco Murray rushed for 119 and a score and backup QB Dan LeFevour, getting the start in the season’s final week, threw 2 TDs as Denver simply outplayed the Skyhawks in a game St. Louis should have been very up to win.
POTG: Gold DE Justice Cole: 4 Tck, 2 Sck, 1 FF, 1 FR.
MICHIGAN 17 BALTIMORE 38
Michigan could not capitalize on St. Louis’s loss as they ran into a Balitmore buzzsaw. Big Ben had another monster game, pushing for final MVP consideration with 345 yards and 4 touchdowns on the day. Dixon and Williams combined for 92 yards and a score and the Blitz D held Kirk Cousins to a disappointing 6 for 19, 104 yard day in a truly shocking defensive show of force. With the win, the Blitz capture the NE Division and the top seed in the East.
POTG: Blitz QB Ben Roethlisberger: 23/30, 345 Yds, 4 TD, 1 Int
PITTSBURGH 35 NEW JERSEY 24
The Maulers did their part, but are now slotted in as the 4 seed, set to host a Wild Card game this week. Andy Dalton did it all In this game, with Lattimore sidelined. He threw for 422 yards and 5 scores against a New Jersey defense that simply did not look all that interested in getting the win. Brett Hundley threw 50 passes for the Generals, completing 30 for 340 yards in a pretty nice game for the rookie, but it was well short of what was needed against the Maulers.
POTG: Mauler QB Andy Dalton: 15/27, 422 Yds, 5 TD, 1 Int
ORLANDO 27 WASHINGTON 16
The Renegades made sure their playoff ticket was punched, taking care of business in Washington, with Connor Shaw looking good in a matchup against Federals’ backup Cleo Lemon. Shaw went 23 of 39 for 239 yards and 2 scores as he helped Orlando claim the last playoff spot left to grab. Michael Jenkins finished the year as the league leader in receptions, snagging 8 more for 106 yards and a TD as Orlando makes their first playoff appearance in 6 years. Calais Campbell also sets a record for a DE, becoming the first edge rusher to ever record 100 tackles in a USFL season.
POTG: Orlando DE Calais Campbell: 9 Tck, 2 Sck.
MEMPHIS 7 BIRMINGHAM 27
Despite watching the scoreboard all game, the Stallions easily dispatch backup the Showboats, knocking Matt McGloin out of the game and limiting 3rd stringer Ryan Mallett to 140 yards passing. A. J. McCarron looked good, completing 19 of 27 for 270 and a score, but it was not enough to get the 8-8 Stallions into the postseason. Orlando’s win officially eliminated Birmingham.
POTG: Stallion DE Greg Hardy: 4 Tck, 2 Sck
CHARLOTTE 16 LOS ANGELES 13
Charlotte did not give Orland a shot at the Division, holding off a game LA squad to take the W and the Division on Saturday night. The Monarchs looked quite shaky, especially QB Brandon Wheedon, who threw 3 picks to the feisty LA defense. If not for a late Brandon Coutu field goal, the Monarchs could have been on the outside of the playoff pool, looking in. But they got the job done and now will host a playoff game next week as the 3 seed.
POTG: Monarch WR D. J. Hackett: 9 Rec, 112 Yds, 1 TD
ARIZONA 10 TEXAS 39
As expected, Arizona rested several starters, including David Carr, Frank Gore, and Larry Fitzgerald. The result? A pretty easy but somewhat meaningless win by the Outlaws. Playing at Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos, Texas got 262 yards and 2 scores from Joe Flacco, with Marques Colston getting just enough to snag the receiving yardage title away from Baltimore’s Darrius Heyward-Bey.
POTG: Texas WR Marques Colston: 5 Rec, 138 Yds, 1 TD
CHICAGO 9 OHIO 24
The Glory give Bart Andrus a parting gift, a home win to end the season at 5-11. In the battle of teams already replacing their coaches, the Glory got 3 TDs from QB Troy Smith and a solid game from WR Justin Blackmon to take the win over a very flat Chicago squad. With the loss, Chicago locks up the 1st pick in the draft. Will it be a QB or has Trevor Siemian shown enough in an up and down rookie year?
POTG: Glory WR Justin Blackmon: 4 Rec, 125 Yds, 1 TD
LAS VEGAS 10 JACKSONVILLE 24
The Bulls improve by 5 games over 2014 with their fifth win and provide Las Vegas with a perfect 0-8 road record in 2015. It was another battle of backups as Adrian McPherson and Jeff Tuel battled in Alltel Stadium. Neither QB threw a TD but McPherson managed to avoid turnovers while Tuel threw two picks.
POTG: Bulls CB Charles Godfrey: 2 Tck, 2 Int, 1 Def TD, 1 FF, 1 FR
SEATTLE 19 SAN DIEGO 11
The Dragons avoid a 10-loss season in this battle of 6-win teams, played before a pretty healthy 27,582 on a hot San Diego afternoon. Byron Leftwich started, but after a scare on a sack was pulled for Mike Flynn. Case Keenum got the start for the Thunder and looked solid. Other than one nice 60-yard TD to Nate Burleson, this one was a bit of a snoozer all the way through.
POTG: Seattle LB Khalil Mack: 10 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 Sfty, 1 FF, 1 FR
ATLANTA 20 TAMPA BAY 30
Pride got the best of Tampa Bay as Pat White and the Bandits win the game over Brad Gradkowski, but in doing so drop from the 1st draft pick to the 2 spot. Not a huge deal, but a weird time to develop a sense of pride in an otherwise disastrous 4-12 season. Steven Jackson rushed for 106 for the Fire, and Gradkowski threw for 2 scores, but Tampa Bay got a pick six from Carlos Rogers and Tds from Rex Burkhead and Santana Moss to take the win in their home finale, played before only 17,202.
POTG: Bandits CB Carlos Rogers: 9 Tck, 1 Int, 1 Def TD
PHILADELPHIA 13 DALLAS 16
Not exactly Eagles-Cowboys, but this non-rivalry helped produce the first winning season for the Roughnecks as they get the win and finish the year 8-7-1. Tim Wright had a good game with 6 catches for 90 yards and a score, while the Dallas D held Matt Gutierrez under 200 yards and without a score.
POTG: Dallas LT Vernon Carey: 11 Pancake Blocks
Plenty of Backups See Action in Week 16
Yes, there were some tight games, some drama as teams tried to settle their playoff position, but what we noticed more than at any other time of the season was the preponderance of backup QBs in action this week. Twelve of the league’s 28 teams started a backup at the position in Week 16, and several others turned to the backup by halftime. Now, not all of these were for the same reason, and not all were getting their first start, but plenty were.
We saw some backups who have been thrust into action in recent weeks due to injury, players like Ricky Stanzi in St. Louis, Adrian McPherson in Jacksonville, rookie Connor Shaw in Orlando, or A. J. McCarron in Birmingham. We saw New Jersey kick the tires on their rookie signing, USC QB Brett Hundley, and we saw several potential up-and-coming backups get a rare start, players like Nick Foles in Arizona, Case Keenum in San Diego, Brad Gradkowski for Atlanta, and Matt McGloin in Memphis.
The best performance of the week came from an unexpected place as Denver’s Dan LeFevour surprised us all with a solid 16 of 30, 2 TD game that helped the Gold upset the Skyhawks in a game St. Louis had to win to ensure themselves a bye week and a 2 seed. We saw Connor Shaw help propel Orlando into the post-season, subbing for the IR-restricted Russell Wilson and throwing for 239 yards and 2 scores in a victory at Washington. A. J. McCarron threw for 270 as he helped Birmingham finish the year at .500, and New Jersey rookie Brett Hundley may have given the Generals something to consider as Sam Bradford heads to free agency, completing 30 of 50 passes for 340 yards and 2 scores, not enough to beat the Maulers, but a very good first impression for the former Trojan.
It is Week 16, so we are not shocked that many teams played some younger players, that others opted to rest key starters to avoid injury, and with the rash of injured QBs we have seen this year, who can blame them. Even so, fans that coughed up some big bucks to see their team one more time this season had to be a bit upset that they got largely matchups of backups in many games.
Oakland Swoons to Sixth Seed
We have already focused on Portland’s unanticipated ascent to the Pacific Division Title, but we should also focus a bit on Oakland’s precipitous fall from a 6-2 start to a 9-7 finish. Dropping 3 of their last 4 is not the way to enter the playoffs. Dropping from a possible 2 seed down to a 6 seed is certainly not a good sign as the Wild Card round kicks off next week. So what has been going wrong?
The easy answer to that question is that the offense has not done their part, forcing the defense to carry the load. Since a 24-16 win in Week 12, the Invaders have scored 10, 19, 17, and 12 points. Staying under 20 points per game forces a defense to do a lot of heavy lifting. And while Oakland’s defense has been their strength all season long, they clearly tired down the stretch. Bad enough that the Texas Outlaws demolished the Invaders 44-10 in Week 13, but that loss seems to have started a decline in defensive effectiveness, with LA scoring 19 in the only win Oakland garnered in the final month of the year, followed by 27 to the Thunder in San Diego, and this week a 17-12 loss that cost the Invaders the division.
So now Oakland must go on the road in the first round of the playoffs. They head to St. Louis to take on a Skyhawks squad that may have Josh Freeman back (still TBD). Oakland has been the better team all season, but the past month has everyone wondering if they spent all their energy earlier in the year and now have nothing left. We already know that star HB Ryan Williams is unhappy as a platoon player and likely will leave this offseason. Has that dissatisfaction infected the entire offense? Can Joey Harrington pull them together for a playoff run, or will this be a second year in a row where the Invaders slump into the playoffs only to be one and done?
Baltimore Snags Top Seed with 5th Straight Win
One team that is definitely not slumping into the postseason is Baltimore. The Blitz have won 5 in a row, caught and passed Pittsburgh to take the NE Division, beaten the Maulers head-to-head, and now enter the playoff defense of their league title as a 1 seed, very much in a position to become the 2nd team in league history to win back-to-back titles. The Blitz are looking very much like the offensive juggernaut that won the title last year, with Big Ben throwing for either 400 yards, 4 TDs or both nearly every week. The defense is also improved, though still not among the elite in the league, but when your club is first in both points per game and yards per game, maybe you don’t need a Top 10 defense to win another title.
HB Steven Jackson Announces Retirement at 30
Atlanta has not had the year their fans all hoped for, and now the Fire officially will lose one of their iconic stars. Dropping to 6-10 for the year, Atlanta was a major letdown after many, including us, picked them to win the SE Division. This week, following their 30-20 loss to Tampa Bay, one of their best players, NFL import HB Steven Jackson, announced that he would step away from the game at the age of 30.
Now, we all know the stories about tailbacks dropping in productivity after age 30, but we have also seen several exceptions to the rule, so the sudden announcement by Jackson is something of a surprise. Yes, his numbers dipped slightly from 2014 to 2015, but only marginally. And yes, in his 3 years since coming over from the NFL St. Louis Rams, Jackson has yet to earn a 1,000-yard season (topping out at 959 in 2014), but the Fire still very much felt that Jackson was in prime form and could take a run at 1,000 yards at any time. Jackson must have felt differently.
Every player has that moment when they feel that either their body or their heart is just not ready for another season of wear and tear, disappointment and discipline. And maybe Jackson just knew, but for a decision to come out this early in the offseason, just 2 days after his final game, that is a bit rare for a player of Jackson’s age. So now Atlanta has to decide what to do at tailback. They are not going to stick scatback J. J. Arrington with a bell cow role, so the question becomes one of free agency, NFL import once again, or a draft pick used on a potential starter. For a club with a lot of questions, this one suddenly rises to the top.
Deion Branch Steps Away from the Feds & Football
Perhaps less surprising, but still tough for fans in Washington to accept, is the announcement on Wednesday that 13-year veteran and lifelong Federals’ WR Deion Branch is calling it a career. Branch had yet another 1,000-yard season in 2015, his 7th over a career that produced over 13,000 yards receiving, more than 1,000 receptions and 79 touchdowns. It is true again that 2015 was not the best year for the veteran, dipping from 1,300 yards to only 1,076 in 2015, and from 13 TDs in 2014 to only 5 this year. Still, a veteran leader, a 2-time All-USFL selection, and a team captain is a hard player to replace. Washington will likely elevate rising star Brandon LaFell (68 Rec for 887 yards) to the 1 spot, possibly test out Kelvin Benjamin at the 2, but should also look to draft a young speedster to add to the WR room. All of that still to come, but for now fans say goodbye to one of their favorites.
As we look over the four upcoming Wild Card games, the question of how injuries will impact games is one no one takes lightly. Each team has their own story, some having dealt with major injuries for weeks now, others facing a new potential absence from the lineup. Here is our breakdown of all 4 games and how we see injuries playing a factor.
ORL: QB Russell Wilson (OUT), LB Anthony Barr (P)
CHA: TE Brandon Pettigrew (OUT)
Orlando’s Connor Shaw has played well since taking over for the injured Russell Wilson. In 2 starts since the Wilson injury, Shaw has thrown for 386 yards with 4 touchdowns and no picks. Not too shabby at all. The bigger injury may be this week’s status for Charlotte TE Brandon Pettigrew, who could miss 2-4 weeks. He was a security blanket for Brandon Wheedon, who has been a bit careless with the ball lately, so that could be a problem for the Monarchs.
HOU: DT John Jenkins (OUT), LB Pat Angerer (D), G Jon Asamoah (Q)
PIT: CB Reggie Smith (OUT), HB Marcus Lattimore (OUT), C Nick Leckey (P)
The Houston-Pittsburgh game could be a shootout, even moreso now that we see that three key defenders will be out of the game, Jenkins and Angerer for the Gamblers and Reggie Smith for the Maulers. Throw in the fact that HB Marcus Lattimore is already ruled out and you can bet that the Maulers will be a pass-heavy team, depending on Andy Dalton to outduel veteran Matt Hasselbeck.
OAK: G Chris Kemoeatu (OUT), C Russell Bodine (OUT), CB Deon Grant (OUT), WR Travis Wilson (P)
STL: HB Eddie Lacy (OUT), CB Vontae Davis (OUT), DE Olivier Vernon (OUT), DT Sheldon Richardson (D)
The injury to Eddie Lacy is clearly still a major concern for St. Louis, especially after the poor performance by the offense in Denver this past week. Having two key defenders on the D-line also out could also be trouble for the Skyhawks, as Oakland will try to run the ball right down their throats if they cannot prove able to stop it.
MGN: G Vince Manuwai (P)
TEX: CB Nathan Vasher (OUT)
A much lighter injury list in this one, with Michigan expecting to have all their key players on the field. The loss of Nathan Vasher could be an issue for Texas, but we know that Michigan prefers to use a run-dominant offense and play action to protect Kirk Cousins, so that may not be as bad a loss as it would be against another foe.
Final Regular Season Power Rankings
Here we go, the final regular season power rankings, with our playoff teams occupying the top 12 spots and the teams that are done for the year filling out the bottom 16. How teams finished the year, especially the past month, is the biggest factor in who rose and who fell, but what we think each can do in the postseason is also a major consideration. So, here we go, the rankings:
STRONG
1—BALTIMORE (13-3) UP 4
The Blitz have won 5 in a row and take the top seed in the west after a huge win over the Maulers in Week 15.
2—ARIZONA (12-4) UP 1
Ignore the Week 16 game with few starters playing. Before that game, Arizona had won 6 in a row to wrap up the West’s top seed early.
3—NEW ORLEANS (13-3) UP 1
The huge home win over Houston gives them the Division and only a tiebreaker cost them the top seed in the conference. The Breakers have won 5 in a row headed into the bye.
4—PITTSBURGH (13-3) DOWN 3
A tough loss to Balitmore forces them into Wild Card weekend, but this is a team that could run the table on the road.
5—HOUSTON (12-4) DOWN 3
Another team that will be in the Wild Card round but has a shot to run the table, but losses to Philly and Birmingham do have us wondering if they are fully ready.
6—PORTLAND (10-6) UP 4
The Stags have won 5 of 6, including that big win in Oakland to claim both the Pacific Division title and a bye week. It’s all about that defense and Jonathan Stewart in Portland.
7—TEXAS (10-6) UP 4
The Outlaws have won 4 of 5, but will have to play on the road, even in their home Wild Card game, scheduled to be played in Dallas, not San Antonio.
SOLID
8—ST. LOUIS (10-6) DOWN 1
A bad loss in Week 16 did not cost them the Division, but did cost them a bye week and a spot in our top 7.
9—MICHIGAN (10-6) DOWN 1
The Panthers had a shot at the division title, but have lost 3 of their last 4, a troubling trend as they head into a road playoff game next week.
10—ORLANDO (9-7) UP 2
The Renegades win their last 3 to go from 6-7 to 9-7 and a playoff spot. They could be a tough out, especially with Calais Campbell playing at DPOTY pace.
11—OAKLAND (10-6) DOWN 5
The division was theirs for the taking, but going 1-3 down the stretch shows us that Oakland could be swooning once again. They will be on the road as a 6 seed so a quick exit could be in the cards.
12—CHARLOTTE (9-7) DOWN 3
Yes, the Monarchs won the division on a tiebreaker, but they now face Orlando head-to-head, and the Renegades embarrassed them only 2 weeks ago, 30-13. Could that happen again?
13—DALLAS (8-7-1) UP 1
The Roughnecks won 4 of their last 5 but it was too little too late. This is a team on the rise and could be a real challenger in 2016.
14—BIRMINGHAM (8-8) UP 2
The Stallions won 3 of their last 4 to get to .500. They need more consistency in 2016 if they want to catch up to the two top teams in the division, the Breakers and Gamblers.
INCOMPLETE
15--WASHINGTON (7-9) UP 4
The Federals had a shot at .500 but were sideswiped by Orlando in the season finale. They will need to tweak some areas in 2016, including finding a replacement for Deion Branch.
16—SEATTLE (7-9) DOWN 3
A 5-game losing streak was snapped in the season finale, but it was too little to help them. This team has some talent, but needs to find more playmakers to threaten defenses.
17—DENVER (7-9) NO CHANGE
Dick Jauron may be on his way out, but whoever signs on gets a pretty talented team, just one that has fallen behind Arizona and Texas in big play capacity.
18—ATLANTA (6-10) NO CHANGE
The Fire were in it for about half a season, but lost 4 of their last 6, including tough division losses to Charlotte and Tampa Bay. They will need to do more and now need to replace the core player in their offense after Jackson announced he would retire at only 30 years of age.
19—NEW JERSEY (6-10) UP 1
It seems New Jersey is ready to move on from Sam Bradford, but do they have a real option on the roster or do they now have to go shopping for a starting QB?
20—LAS VEGAS (6-10) DOWN 5
The Vipers lost their last 5 games, including 2 home games, and they have to wonder if they simply need some new direction, particularly on defense, where they dropped into the bottom 5 this season.
21—SAN DIEGO (6-10) UP 5
Despite winning 3 of their last 4, a lot more was expected of this team. The run game is nowhere to be found and we are not sure Joe Webb is the long term answer at QB either.
SHAKY
22--PHILADELPHIA (5-11) DOWN 1
After an 0-7 start, the Stars went 5-4 down the stretch, but even that is not enough for us to see them as a possible bounce back team in 2016. They need more playmakers for Matt Gutierrez, and that includes finding a true lead back.
23--OHIO (5-11) NO CHANGE
Bart Andrus is gone, and a new era will begin in Columbus, but with neither Troy Smith or Brock Osweiler playing well this year, QB will be a huge offseason question for the Glory.
24--MEMPHIS (5-11) DOWN 2
Memphis fans are already calling for the Showboats to go all in on U. of Memphis QB Paxton Lynch. With Eli under contract for one more year, it could be a true transition year in 2016.
25--JACKSONVILLE (5-11) NO CHANGE
Winning 5 more games than in 2014 is a good sign that Coach Del Rio has started to change the culture. We are still not sold on RGIII as the QB for the Bulls, but more importantly, they need to fix that horrendous defense.
26--LOS ANGELES (4-12) DOWN 2
Coach Reid survives Black Monday, but he has a lot of work to do. For an offensive genius, the results are not matching the reputation.
27—TAMPA BAY (4-12) NO CHANGE
A disaster season for Coach Shula’s Bandits, as the Mark Sanchez experiment was an abject failure. Sanchez is now a free agent, and Tampa has to decide if they saw enough in Pat White or if they want to try to upgrade.
28—CHICAGO (3-12-1) NO CHANGE
Greg Schiano exited midseason. Dave Wannstadt got a few wins, but will not be hired for next year. The Machine will start rebuilding, and with Brady Quinn now a free agent, it will either be around Trevor Siemian or someone new coming into town next year.
Black Monday a Non-Event
For the first time in a long time we had a Black Monday with no surprises. With Chicago releasing Greg Schiano from his duties over a month ago and Ohio letting Bart Andrus know last week that this week’s season finale would be his last game for the club, we already had two coaches gone or on their way out. The question was whether any others would join them. The answer to that question, at least at this point, is no.
Tampa Bay, the team with the 2nd worst record in the league at 4-12 had already assured Coach Mike Shula that he would be back for 2016, and they have stuck by that, buoyed by the fact that he won them a league title within pretty recent memory and acknowledging that the issues with the team are largely ones of personnel, not coaching. It did not hurt, of course, that Tampa Bay got a season-ending win over a division rival, Atlanta, to maintain support for Shula.
Other teams that clearly did not perform this year either had new coaches just at the start of a rebuild, or have a coach with a pedigree that gives him a bit leeway. In that first group we have clubs like Memphis with 1st year coach Rex Ryan or Jacksonville, who improved from 0-16 to 5-11 under Jack Del Rio. The obvious name in the second group is Andy Reid out in Los Angeles, who has issues with his club, especially on offense, but needs time to build a roster to align with his philosophy. Seems that all three of these clubs are playing the waiting game to see if their coaches can do more with another year.
The other big name out there now is Dick Jauron of Denver. Nothing is official, but it does appear that the Gold have dragged their feet on a deal, which technically means that Jauron could opt to look elsewhere, and we are sure that there will be some takers, but as of right now he is still reporting for duty in Denver, wrapping up the year and prepping for the offseason. If a deal is going to be cut, the Gold will want to do so in the next 2-3 weeks, because free agency opens up soon and you do not want to go into that with no clear sense of who is in charge.
Draft Order First 16 Set
With the end of the regular season, sixteen of the league’s twenty-eight teams are now closing up shop and getting ready for the offseason. A big piece of the puzzle for these non-playoff teams will be the 2016 Territorial and Open Drafts, and with the season ending, we now know the order that the Open Draft will take, at least through pick 16. Here is the draft order with each teams’ biggest need up front.
1—CHICAGO: The Machine have a decision to make, build around Trevor Siemian or go after a new option at QB.
2—TAMPA BAY: The Bandits are in the same boat. Do they like what Pat White showed this year? If so, they can try to fix their defense in the draft, but if not, then QB again is a priority.
3—LOS ANGELES: No doubt in LA that QB is a focal point. Neither Aaron Murray or Tim Tebow showed us any sign that they can emerge as a true franchise option, so Coach Reid needs to prioritize the position.
4—JACKSONVILLE: The Bulls are just awful on defense, particularly at LB, so expect Jacksonville to focus on the 2nd level of the D in this year’s offseason.
5—OHIO: Yet another team without a clear option at QB. But can they really expect to land a top prospect at the 5-slot? They need to either trade up or trade with someone for a T-Draft pick if they want a shot at a first year starter.
6—MEMPHIS: Memphis may be in the cat-bird’s seat. They don’t have immediate need at QB, though many fans would disagree, but with Paxton Lynch in their T-Draft pool, they could build for the future and still use the Open Draft to address other needs.
7—PHILADELPHIA: The Stars need a halfback who can earn 200+ carries, but they also have needs on defense, so they can be flexible in the draft this year.
8—SAN DIEGO: If they want a new QB, they likely need to look in Free Agency. Their other big need is clearly at halfback, so expect them to give a long look to the rookie class of rushers.
9—ATLANTA: With Steven Jackson retiring, Atlanta joins the long list of teams hoping to find a running back in the draft. Not their only need, but an immediate and pressing one.
10—LAS VEGAS: The Vipers are likely to look at edge rushers, as they should. Their pass rush simply did not put enough pressure on opposing QBs.
11—NEW JERSEY: Brett Hundley looked good, but it was one game. If our suspicion is true, and they go with a veteran QB option in free agency, then the draft will be about defense for the Generals.
12—DENVER: Von Miller had a great first year, but the secondary was disappointing, so we expect both safety and corner to be priorities for the Gold.
13—SEATTLE: This is a team that has solid players but few gamebreakers. Whether it is at WR or HB, we think Seattle needs more to truly prove dangerous in the league.
14—WASHINGTON: Deuce McCallister has not announced his plans for 2016. If he stays with the Feds, then they can draft a HB in the later rounds, but if he retires, then suddenly they need immediate help.
15—BIRMINGHAM: The Stallions had a strong 2015 draft, acquiring both a starting HB and a potential Rookie of the Year in WR Amari Cooper. So, now what? How about an edge rusher and a shutdown corner?
16—DALLAS: The Roughnecks are definitely headed in the right direction. We want them to add a true burner at WR, and they could also upgrade along the line, but they will be in a position to take the best player available once we get past the 1st round.
Here we go, playoff football. We have some interesting first round matchups, teams that are questioning themselves, some rising to new heights, some slipping at the worst time. Who will find it in themselves to pull out a win and move on?
ORLANDO (6) @ CHARLOTTE (4)
Saturday, July 5 @ 3pm ET
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Monarchs -2
The 9-7 Renegades take on the 9-7 Monarchs, but these do not feel like two teams evenly matched. Orlando has won their last 3 games, including a convincing 30-13 win over Charlotte only 3 weeks ago. The Monarchs struggled down the stretch, losing 3 of their last 5. They got the 16-13 win over the 4-12 LA Express in the season finale to hold onto the Division Title and get this game played in Charlotte, but they cannot feel too confident going into it. Even with Russell Wilson out, Orlando has found ways to win over the last 3 weeks, and if there is one man Brandon Wheedon does not want to see on the field it is Calais Campbell.
OUR PICK: We think Orlando has the momentum, the mojo, and the defense to win this game.
OAKLAND (6) @ ST. LOUIS (3)
Saturday, July 5 @ 8pm ET
The Dome at America’s Center, St. Louis, MO
Skyhawks -4
A game of two teams who did not exactly impress down the home stretch. Oakland has lost 3 of 4 and blew the division title to the Stags this past week. St. Louis lost Eddie Lacy to injury in Week 15, and looked somewhat hapless without him in the season finale, a game they needed to win but in which they got blown out by non-playoff Denver. At this time no decision has been made about Skyhawk QB Josh Freeman. If he comes back this week, that could be a big lift to the Skyhawks, even though Ricky Stanzi has had some good games. For Oakland, the key is to see if they can use the run to control the tempo of the game, force St. Louis to be one dimensional, and then reduce the number of big plays.
OUR PICK: As badly as the Invaders have played lately, they are still the healthier team, and, on paper at least, the better team. It will be more of a toss up if Freeman can play, but he will be rusty, so we are still going to pick Oakland for the road win in this one.
HOUSTON (5) @ PITTSBURGH (4)
Sunday, July 6 @ 1pm ET
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Pittsburgh -2
This is the marquee matchup this week. How often do you get two 12-win teams in a Wild Card matchup? Both of these teams have legitimate paths to the USFL title, with Pittsburgh getting the added bonus of a home playoff game while Houston has to hit the road after their loss this past week in New Orleans. This could easily be a game that ends up with both teams scoring in the 40’s, even though both also have some defensive talent.
OUR PICK: Which QB do we trust more? That is what it comes down to. Honestly, they both have been playing lights out football all year, but you have to give a nod to Matt Hasselbeck’s experience. The man has a Bassett Trophy already. So we think jitters may get the best of the Maulers and we are picking another road underdog, Houston, to win this game.
MICHIGAN (5) @ TEXAS (4)
Sunday, July 6 @ 5pm ET
Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, TX
Texas -5
Two very different styles on display in this one. Michigan will try to use the run and their league best HB LeVeon Bell to control the pace of the game, limit possessions for Joe Flacco, and allow Kirk Cousins to maximize play action to avoid high pressure third downs. Texas has a 1-2 punch at HB after the trade that added Marshawn Lynch to Chris Johnson in the backfield, but this is still a team that wants to go deep early and often, and has the talent to do it.
OUR PICK: Texas played well over the past month (4-1 down the home stretch), but with their home now cued up for demolition, they will have to play this game in a rival’s home stadium, Dallas’s Cotton Bowl Stadium. We still think the Outlaws will have a strong home field advantage and that, plus Joe Flacco’s right arm, will be the difference and give the Outlaws another chapter in the very odd story of this year.
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