We have hit the ¼ mark of the season. Time to assess where our preseason picks may have been a bit off. We know we have to reassess some teams, especially with Baltimore sitting at 0-4 and some unexpected frontrunner, like San Diego at 3-1 and New Jersey and Philly battling atop the Northeast Division. We will run down the top stories of the season’s first quarter, review our preseason power rankings (lots of movement there) and touch on the stories of the week, starting with this week’s results. Four games down, but still plenty of time for teams to adjust and find their stride. We will see if some quick starts start to slow down and some poor starts find their way.
CHICAGO MACHINE 34 OAKLAND INVADERS 37
The Machine came into Oakland as a 10-point underdog, but gave the Invaders everything they could handle, building up a 34-20 lead early in the 4th quarter, but Oakland dug deep and found a way to win, putting up 17 points in the game’s final 5 minutes to stun the Machine and move to 3-1 on the season. A tough loss for a Machine club just trying to find its identity, but a key win for an Oakland squad that is expecting to win their division.
It was also a good game for quarterback play as newly-relocated Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 319 yards only to have longstanding Invader QB Joey Harrington throw for 330. In a game where both teams struggled to run the ball, it was the QB’s as well as wideouts AaronDobson and Davante Adams who provided the fireworks, along with a pick-six, of course, as we always seem to have one in our GOTW.
This was a game that saw both teams find holes in the opposition defense from the early going. After a quick and unproductive opening drive by Chicago, Oakland opened their first drive with a 15-yard completion and went 81 yards in only 10 plays before Donald Brown took the ball off tackle for the final 4 yards to give Oakland the initial 7-0 lead. That lead would not last long as Chicago needed only 5 plays to move the ball 67 yards, with Ryan Fitzpatrick connecting on a long throw to HB Doug Martin before connecting with Aaron dobson for the equalizer.
Oakland retook the lead on a 51-yard field goal by rookie kicker Roberto Aguayo, but Chicago would again find their way down field in short order. In a drive that crossed over into the 2nd quarter, Fitzpatrick and the Machine needed only 7 plays to take their first lead of the game. The scoring play was a short toss from the veteran QB to rookie Will Fuller, the 3rd TD of the season for the impressive young wideout. Chicago would expand their lead less than a minute later when a tipped ball found its way to Machine DB Jordan Poyer. Poyer, who is listed as a corner, but who has been taking some snaps at free safety, was in that position and in the right place to come up with the ball and find a path through the Oakland offense, a long path, as his run went 86 yards for a score to give Chicago a 21-10 advantage.
But Joey Harrington has a short memory and was back, throwing the ball on Chicago, in a final drive that would prove fruitful for the Invaders. With just 38 seconds left in the half, Harrington would find his favorite target on the day, 3rd year wideout Davante Adams. Adams would make 5 receptions on the day for 110 yards and this scoring play, a 6-yard fade route.
The game went into the half at 21-17 Chicago, and the back-and-forth play continued in the third, with Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Machine offense finding holes in Oakland’s zone scheme, and getting help from a 2nd Harrington pick. After Chicago went up by 11 on a Doug Martin run, they got another gift from the Invaders as Jordan Poyer nabbed his second pick, this one a shoestring catch on a ball that looked like it would hit the turf before the defender or the receiver could reach it. The play went to the replay officials after an initial ruling of incomplete, but the replay clearly showed Poyer’s hands under the ball.
Chicago would add a field goal on the ensuing drive and had themselves a nice 14-point lead at 31-17, but Oakland would keep scrapping. Oakland would move the ball well on the next drive, helped by a nice 37-yard catch & rumble from TE Zach Ertz. They would settle for a field goal, but the offense showed it could find its own success against the Machine D.
The 3rd quarter ended with Chicago driving again, and just 31 seconds into the final period they brought the difference back up to 14 with another field goal. Down two scores, Oakland needed to both score and get stops. They failed in the first need on their next drive, going 3-and-out, but succeeded in forcing a Chicago turnover only 2 plays into the next Machine drive. The play came on a big hit from LB Bobby Wagner, forcing the ball out of TE Anthony Fasano’s hands, recovered by LB Donterrious Thomas. That change of possession turned into an 8-play scoring drive with Knile Davis getting the TD on a 1-yard plunge over the right guard.
Oakland had pulled back to within 7, and they would get a shot to tie the game after forcing Chicago into a 3rd and 14 with a sack of Fitzpatrick. The machine could not convert and were forced to punt. Oakland moved quickly, using a muddle huddle to call plays without allowing Chicago to substitute. In 7 plays they were in the red zone, 3 plays later Harrington found Keenan Allen for the score. It was the 8th reception of the day for Allen and meant that with 1:15 left, Oakland and Chicago were knotted up.
Dennis Green decided to kick away and play defense, but his defense decided that the best way to win the game was to give the ball back to the Oakland offense. On a pitch play to the wide side of the field, CB Chris Gamble stood up Doug Martin and Bobby Wagner punched the ball out for his 2nd forced fumble of the game. In the scramble Wagner recovered the ball, giving Oakland the ability to win the game with a last-minute score. They tried to get the ball into position, but a holding call forced them backwards. Not wanting to risk another play causing them to back out of field goal range, Coach Green called for two straight kneel downs, putting the ball finally at the Chicago 27 and setting up rookie Roberto Aguayo for the winning kick.
The FSU rookie, knowing that a miss with 3 seconds left would produce a tie and overtime rather than a loss, was cool and collected. He put the ball between the uprights and Oakland escaped the game with a win. It took some defensive tenacity, but 2 Chicago turnovers in the final quarter proved to be all that Oakland needed to come back on the Machine and get the win.
BALTIMORE 21 MEMPHIS 24
It was too little, too late for Jake Locker as the Showboats built up a 24-0 lead before the Baltimore backup started to connect with his receivers. Locker would finish with 323 yards and 3 TDs, but time simply ran out on the Blitz, who fall to a surprising 0-4. Memphis got 94 yards from Anthony Allen, and 3 huge touchdowns from Todd Gurley’s understudy as the Baltimore run defense again proves to be a sieve.
POTG: Showboat HB Anthony Allen: 23 Att, 94 Yds, 3 TD
ARIZONA 31 ATLANTA 13
Another blowout win for the Wranglers as David Carr earns POTW honors with 4 TDs and 396 yards passing. Kyle Orton did play, but was ineffective, sacked by the aggressive Wrangler D six painful times. Frank Gore added 102 yards on the ground and new Wrangler Jimmie Graham had his best day of the season, catching 5 for 114 and his first touchdown with the team.
POTG: Wrangler QB David Carr: 17/25, 396 Yds, 4 TD, 0 Int
NEW JERSEY 36 WASHINGTON 30 OVERTIME
Brett Hundley impresses again, and the Generals find a way to win their 3rd of the year, taking the game to overtime on a late Fairbairn field goal and then wrapping it up with a Delone Carter TD run. Hundley threw for 376 yards and 3 scores in his best game so far for the surging Generals. Odell Beckham was his star target, earning POTG standing with a huge day.
POTG: Generals’ WR Odell Beckham: 10 Rec, 192 Yds
LOS ANGELES 15 HOUSTON 34
Houston just had too much for the Express as Matt Hasselbeck returned to action, completing 12 of 16 for 241 yards and 2 scores. Carlos Hyde added 98 and a score on the ground while the defense sacked Sam Bradford 6 times and held LA to only 4 of 15 on third down. Safety Kenny Vaccaro added a pick-six to help keep Houston among the unbeatens.
POTG: Houston safety Willie Andrews: 5 Tck, 2 Sck, 1 FF, 1 FR
JACKSONVILLE 19 TAMPA BAY 0
The Bulls have found something with their new defense, shutting out Tampa Bay and limiting Tampa Bay rookie QB Dak Prescott to only 20 of 43 passing. Cadillac Williams helped the Bulls with 114 yards on 12 carries, but it was the D that was the story of this game, holding the Bandits to only 8 first downs and 209 total yards.
POTG: Bulls’ HB Cadillac Williams: 12 Att, 114 Yds
MICHIGAN 37 ST. LOUIS 6
The Panthers dominated on both sides of the ball to move to 3-1 as they scored 31 unanswered points to knock St. Louis out. LeVeon Bell rushed for 120 and the young receivers for the Panthers came through, with Jerrel Jernigan and Cody Latimer combining for 9 receptions and 131 yards. The defense was led by DE Michael Bennet, who finished with 5 tackles, a sack, and a big fumble.
POTG: Panther HB LeVeon Bell: 16 Att, 120 Yds, 1 TD, 2 Rec, 28 Yds, 1 TD
SEATTLE 7 BIRMINGHAM 20
The Dragons’ offensive woes continue as again they fail to score more than once. Birmingham was hardly explosive, but the did enough to knock out the Dragons. Amari Cooper led all Stallions with 4 receptions for 103 yards, including a big 75-yarder that led to the club’s first score. Derrick Harvey had 2 sacks and Antonio Cromartie forced 2 fumbles as the Dragons just could not hold onto the ball.
POTG: Stallions’ LB Ernie Sims: 6 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 FF, 1 FR
OHIO 21 PHILADELPHIA 31
A good one in Philly, not decided until the final minutes. Derrick Henry again came up big, rushing for 92 yards and 3 big TDs for the Stars. Christian Hackenberg started for Ohio and fared pretty well, going 15 of 22 before being knocked out with a minor injury. Tony Pike came in but could not keep pace with the Stars. Henry’s 3rd TD of the game was enough to put Philly ahead for good.
POTG: Stars’ HB Derri ck Henry: 22 Att, 92 Yds, 3 TD
CHARLOTTE 24 NEW ORLEANS 17
The Breakers drop to 1-3 after a tough loss at home to Charlotte. Darren McFadden combined 77 yards rushing with 53 through the air and Brandon Wheedon completed 25 of 31 on the day as Charlotte moved to 3-1. The Breaker run game simply never got started and New Orleans went 4 of 12 on third down as they drop a tough one to the Monarchs.
POTG: Charlotte LB Rolando McClain: 10 Tck, 1 TFL
ORLANDO 41 DALLAS 26
Dallas’s defense is just not showing up as Russell Wilson throws for 3 scores. Rookie Deion Bush gets another pick and this one goes for 6 as backup Landry Jones, in for a concussed Manziel, makes a fatal mistake in his first series. Orlando built up a 24-12 lead and never looked back as they dominated the shaky Dallas defense all game.
POTG: Renegade QB Russell Wilson: 23/30, 208 Yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
DENVER 19 LAS VEGAS 21
A tough loss for Denver as they score with 12 seconds left to play, but fail on the 2-point conversion, giving Las Vegas their first win of the season. Cody Pickett threw for 2 scores and Montario Hardesty added another as the Vipers scored 21 unanswered points after falling behind 13-0. Denver got a Kevin White TD in the final seconds, but they needed 2 to tie and did not get it as POTG Willie Middlebrooks tackled Leonard Hankerson half a yard shy of the endzone on the key play.
POTG: Viper CB Willie Middlebrooks: 5 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 FF
SAN DIEGO 38 PORTLAND 16
The Thunder are a surprising 3-1 after a big game from free agent acquisition Ryan Williams helps them take down Portland at Columbia Sportswear Stadium. Joe Webb threw for 245 and 2 scores, but it was Williams, with 101 yards rushing, 73 receiving, and 2 big scores who helped lead the way for the Thunder. Webb’s 70-yard TD to Williams was the highlight play of the game.
POTG: Thunder HB Ryan Williams: 15 Att, 101 Yds, 1 Td, 2 Rec, 73 Yds, 1 TD
PITTSBURGH 25 TEXAS 27
The Maulers drop to 1-3 as they too fall one PAT away from tying the game in Texas. The Maulers got a 31-yard Dalton to Marshall TD with 32 seconds to play, but just like Denver, they needed 2 to tie, and they could not get it. Texas got 3 TDs from Joe Flacco, including one from newly-arrived WR Justin Hunter. LB Jonathan Moulton was named player of the game in large part due to his play on the final 2-point attempt, swatting the ball away from Pittsburgh TE Anthony Hill to preserve the 2-point lead.
POTG: Outlaw LB Jonathan Moulton: 10 Tck, 2 Sck, 1 FF
Quarterly Report: 10 Big Stories of 2016 So Far
A lot has happened in only 4 weeks. Teams have had surprisingly good starts, upsettingly bad ones, and players have broken out in a big way. We looked over all the posts, all the conversations we found ourselves having around the bullpen, and we have come up with the 10 most discussed stories of the season’s first month. Lots to break down as we look at Weeks 1-4, so let’s get right to it.
10—Memphis Starts Strong
We start our list of stories with the surprisingly quick start of the Memphis Showboats. The club that many picked to bring up the rear in the 4-team Southern Division is sitting at 3-1 and has put some impressive wins on the board, knocking off the defending league champion Breakers, the defending NE Division champion Blitz, and the 3-1 Oakland Invaders. The win in Oakland was perhaps the most impressive of the lot as Memphis dominated the Invaders in their own house, winning by a decisive 24-7 total.
Memphis has improved in two key areas this year, ranked 4th in the league by allowing only 52.5 yards per game on the ground and sitting at 7th in the league with 269 yards per game through the air. Eli Manning has quieted some of the calls for rookie Paxton Lynch by starting strong, throwing for 1,075 yards and 4 TDs in the season’s opening month. Robert Woods has emerged as a solid option for Manning, paired with Mark Clayton to give the Showboats a solid short and mid-range game. But perhaps the biggest revelation has been in the run game, where an injury to 2nd year back Todd Gurley has given backup Anthony Allen a chance to shine. Allen, in 3 starts, has recorded over 200 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns. With Gurley expected to return, Memphis may well consider more of a rotation to keep Allen’s hands on the ball. Too much quality at halfback is a good problem for a club to have.
9—Jacksonville D Delivers
There is no denying that the sudden improvement of the Jacksonville Bulls’ defense is one of the stories of the year. The Bulls have held 3 of 4 opponents under 20 points, including a huge shut out of Tampa Bay this week to move to 3-1 on the year. While fans were oohing and ahing at a big game from QB Robert Griffin III in Week 2, it has been the defense each and every week that has gotten the job done for the insurgent Bulls.
The front line of Barkevious Mingo, David Bowens, Robert Ayers, and DT Grady Jarrett has produced 14 sacks and has been solid against the run, giving up 82 yards per game. The linebacker are led by former Philly Star Sean Lee in the middle. Lee leads the team with 23 sacks and is getting help from outside backers Gabe Miller and Jarret Johnson. In the secondary, Dominique Rogers-Cromartie is taking on a leadership role, supported by fellow CB Charles Godfrey (15 tackles and a pick) an safety revelation David Bruton, whose pick-six was the highlight of the win over Tampa Bay. Can the Bulls win with this defense? It seems the answer is yes. They have a big showdown with 3-1 in-state rival Orlando this week, and that game could show us which Sunshine State defense is able to shine brightest.
8—San Diego’s Surprising Start
We follow the theme of surprisingly fast starts by looking at the San Diego Thunder. After a season-opening loss to the Michigan Panthers, San Diego has rattled off three straight wins. Now, admittedly, they beat 3 teams with a combined 3-9 record in Las Vegas, LA, and Portland, but wins are wins, and San Diego will gladly take more of them. The Thunder have done this without a clear area of dominance. They rank between 12th and 18th in most categories tracked by the league, though their run defense has been a little bit better, ranked 5th and allowing only 66.2 yards per game. The offense has been balanced, with Joe Webb happy to hand the ball off to free agent signee, former Oakland starter Ryan Williams. The 6th year back is providing punch to the Thunder ground game and that is making it easier for Webb to use play action to connect with Chad Johnson, Nick Toon, and TE Kevin Everett. Johnson, in particular, has benefitted from fewer double teams as defenses have to commit more to stop the Thunder run game.
San Diego has a big challenge coming up as they will head to Memphis in Week 6, but they won’t face 3-1 Oakland until Week 10, giving them plenty of time to build up their confidence before facing the club most picked to win the division.
7—Pittsburgh Power Outage
What happened to the Maulers’ offense and the MVP campaign many expected from QB Andy Dalton? The Maulers have struggled to score points, averaging only 20.5 per game, and have also seen the defense collapse on more than one occasion. The result? Well, a 1-3 start is not what anyone expected, but that is what we have. Other than a solid game against Philadelphia (a 22-16 win at Heinz Field) Pittsburgh has looked sloppy and out of synch. They scored only 10 against a suspect New Jersey defense, and this week failed on a 2-point conversion that would have sent their game with Texas to overtime.
The Maulers have some winnable games coming up, with 2 games against 2-2 Washington in the next 3 weeks, with 2-2 Ohio sandwiched in there as well. They also still have a lot of solid weapons, but the loss of Adam Thielen this week (out 2-4 weeks with a dislocated knee) will not help. Andy Dalton needs to pick things up. His yards per game are down by nearly 60 yards, his comnpletion percentage is hovering around 50%, down nearly 10 points from last year, and the big plays have been far fewer. If the Maulers are going to dig out of their 1-3 hole, they will need more from him, and likely more from wideout Mike Williams, who is likely to step in for Thielen as he recovers.
6—Henry Running Away with ROTY
Some years it is a mystery which rookie will pull out a Rookie of the Year title at the end of the year. This is not shaking out to be one of those years. Philadelphia tailback Derrick Henry is literally running away with the title. With 315 yards and 4 TDs in his first 4 pro games, including a stellar 107-yard outing in his premier game and nice 101 yard and 92 yard games in the last 2 weeks, Henry is looking like the real deal and a clear front runner for the ROTY award.
It is a long season, and halfback is a position that tends to start fast but run out of steam over time, but the aggressive style of Henry is looking very effective. Henry is a “hit them, don’t let them hit you” kind of back. Bruising but also fast enough to break away once he gets into the secondary, Henry is looking like one of the best picks from this year’s draft. With Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott opting for the NFL Cowboys, Henry came in as the highest drafted tailback, and he is making coach Jim Harbaugh look like a genius for pushing to sign the Alabama back.
5—Beasley A Beast
Calais Campbell may have caught and one-upped Beasley this week, but that does not take away from the 2nd year player’s impressive first month of 2016. The New Jersey General left end has impressed coaches, fans, and players over the season’s first month. His linemate, Aaron Kampman has praised Beasley’s work ethic and athleticism. Coach Norv Turner has also praised Beasley for putting in the work all week long to get results each weekend. Teams are beginning to adjust their lines to compensate for Beasley, something that will make Aaron Kampman more effective, but the big man out of Clemson is still making plays, disrupting blocking schemes and intimidating offenses, a very good development for a Generals’ team hoping to make some noise this year.
4—Wilson on Target
While much of the attention in Orlando has been on the defense, and deservedly so, we should recognize the continued growth from QB Russell Wilson. The former NC State and Wisconsin QB had a huge improvement in his 4th year, throwing for over 3,000 yards, but still struggled with accuracy, throwing 17 picks to go with 17 touchdowns last year. While still a concern (6 picks in 4 games) what we are seeing from Wilson this year is greater accuracy and better decision-making in general.
The other noticeable change to Wilson’s game appears to be his willingness to take off and run when the play is not there. So far this year Wilson has rushed for over 110 yards and is turning scrambles into first downs. He will want to work on avoiding big hits, but what Orlando fans are getting excited by is Wilson’s ability to move the pocket, extend plays, and take off when the receivers are just not open.
3—Gamblers Going Gangbusters
Houston has staked their claim to the Southern Division once again. After falling just short of winning the division in their first season since being reallocated from the Southwest to the South, Houston is laying claim to the division with a 4-0 start this year. They have already knocked off both Memphis and Birmingham, and with New Orleans off to a slow 1-3 start, Houston is looking very good as a division front runner.
Even better, the Gamblers are doing it on both sides of the ball, averaging over 33 points per game on offense (even with Matt Hasselbeck missing parts of 3 games due to injury) while the defense is giving up only 20.8. The Gamblers may not be blowing everyone out like their old division rival in Arizona, but they are winning with a combination of confidence, competency, and consistency week in and week out. They have a huge game with New Orleans this week, one that could certainly cement them as the favorite in the division and set them up to compete for the top seed in the East.
2—Baltimore Bottoms Out
We have already touched on this, but it is without a doubt one of the most talked-about stories of the year. With early games against New Jersey, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Memphis, most expected the Blitz to get off to a 4-0 start, not fall to 0-4. It does not get any better with back to back games against 3-1 Philadelphia in the next 2 weeks, then more tough games with St. Louis and Michigan up next.
The Blitz need to get their offense back on line, find ways to get the ball to Darrius Heyward-Bey and figure out how to slow down opposing rushers. Baltimore is giving up 120 yards rushing a game, and that means teams are keeping the ball away from them. They have been close in their last 2 games, but close only gets you so far. The time is now for them to turn this around, because losing the series with Philadelphia would put them at 0-6 and there is no coming back from that.
1—Wranglers Rolling
No doubt what the story of the year so far has been. Arizona’s offense has been uncharacteristically dynamic, explosive, and fun to watch. We got so used to the Wranglers winning games with defense and Frank Gore handoffs that we did not see this coming. David Carr is on fire, throwing for over 1,300 yards and 16 touchdowns in the season’s first 4 weeks. It is an incredible pace, one that we also see with Larry Fitzgerald leading the league in receiving yards by 166 yards over 2nd place. He is averaging over 150 yards per game and over 30 yards a catch. Ridiculous numbers. And don’t think they have forgotten Gore either, the veteran back is currently 7th in the league with 283 yards, a healthy 70.75 per game.
If Arizona continues to pair their solid defense with this type of offensive explosiveness, they could be on their way to another Summer Bowl. They are just destroying teams, evident in their 41-14 dismantling of Dallas in Week 1 and their equally impressive 43-19 win over Denver. Las Vegas gave them a fight, but they were back to blowout wins in Atlanta this week. They have a tough one with Oakland in town this week, but after that they don’t face another team with a winning record until a Week 9 clash against Jacksonville. Arizona is looking very much like a team that has it all working and that is not good for the other 27 teams in the league.
Campbell Back on Top with 3 Sack Day
We came into the year expecting that Calais Campbell’s stranglehold on the league’s Sack Leader Board would come to an end in 2016. We looked at Von Miller of Denver and thought he was in position to challenge the Orlando sack master. Well, a challenger has risen, not in the form of Miller, but in New Jersey’s Vic Beasley, who led the league with 9 sacks over 3 weeks, but a big 3-sack game in Week 4 helped prove that Campbell would not relinquish his title so easily. Campbell’s big game against Dallas and Johnny Manziel has put him back on top with 10 sacks in only 4 games, a pace that we all recognize as ridiculous (on pace for 40 sacks over 16 games). It seems that having a legitimate challenger is once again bringing out the best in Campbell as he hopes to retain the crown and the near universal view that he may well be the best edge rusher in league, and maybe pro football history. Here is an expanded look at the top sack leaders so far this year.
Calais Campbell (ORL) 10 Sacks (4-1-2-3 by week)
Vic Beasley (NJ) 9 Sacks (3-3-2-1 by week)
Chris Kelsay (ATL) 6 Sacks (1-2-2-1 by week)
Barkevious Mingo (JAX) 6 Sacks (1-3-1-1 by week)
Reynaldo Wynn (TEX) 6 Sacks (1-1-2-2 by week)
(As a note, Von Miller has only 2 sacks over the same 4 games, a slower start than most
expected.)
Cascade Collapse: Stags & Dragons Cannot Find Endzone
While the Cascade Clash between Seattle and Portland is one of the league’s trademark rivalries, the shine may not be on this apple in 2016. After 4 weeks the Stags and Dragons are a combined 1-7 and neither looks like a team that will be bringing a lot of excitement to the league. Seattle is averaging fewer than 10 points per game, with Byron Leftwich siting on a 47% completion rate and a 3:4 TD:INT ratio. Portland has a new QB in 2nd year Oregon product Marcus Mariota (65.0 QBR and 0 TDs to 4 Ints so far) and a new cobbled-together run game with Felix Jones and LeMichael James. They suffered a brutal 40-0 beat down by the offensively-challenged LA Express, which was a very bad look for the defending division champ.
Both clubs were thought of as up and comers after the Stags snuck into a division title in Week 16 last year and Seattle came on strong over the final 6 weeks of the season, but 2016 has proven that sometimes momentum is squelched in the offseason. The sudden retirement of Jonathan Stewart and the trade of Ryan Fitzpatrick seem to have deflated hopes in Portland while Seattle may have a decent defense but is proving to have a lot of issues on offense.
The two faced off in Week 3 and that has been Portland’s only win so far. They will face each other again in Week 9, but before that Portland has some potential opportunities to improve, with 1-3 St. Louis and 1-3 New Orleans both coming to town. Seattle has a tougher road ahead, with 3-1 clubs on the slate each of the next 4 weeks (San Diego, Oakland, @ Michigan, @ Memphis).
No D in Big D: Roughnecks Giving Up 30+ per Game
The Dallas Roughnecks had their first winning season since the move from Boston last year, finishing 8-7-1, and many had them pegged as a potential threat in the Southwest Division, but if they want to compete they are going to have to do something about their defense. Opponents over the first month of the season have averaged 30.5 points per game, including 41 by both Orlando and Arizona. The Roughnecks are -2 in turnover margin, have struggled against the run, and have also seen more than a fair share of deep balls find success. While DE’s Larry English and Taylor Hart have combined for 9 sacks in the season’s opening month, the secondary has been an issue.
Corners Billy Jones and Brandon Carr are making tackles, not pass defenses or picks. Safeties Dezmen Southward and Will Allen have had to spend their time deep in coverage to avoid big plays, which has made them far less effective against the run. Just the fact that in their top 7 tacklers the Roughnecks have only 1 linebacker is a clear sign that things are not going well. If they want to have any shot of keeping pace with Arizona, Texas, and Denver, they will need to find a way to improve the results on defense. Otherwise they may need to win shootouts to have any shot.
A bad week for the tight end position as two starters get placed on IR. Brandon Pettigrew was helped off the field this weekend and an MRI showed what everyone on Charlotte feared, an ACL tear that will cost him the season. For Jacksonville it was not a soft tissue injury, but a broken fibula that will cost Kellen Winslow the rest of the season. Charlotte will promote L. J. Smith, the former LA Express starter, up to the starting position. In Jacksonville, it will be Gavin Escobar taking over.
Two Week 4 starting QBs were also sidelined as rookie Christian Hackenberg suffered a dislocated thumb and had to leave his first start. He could be gone for up to 3 weeks. Johnny Manziel, the starter for Dallas might miss 1-2 weeks after a designation of his foot injury as turf toe, a much better diagnosis than originally thought when he came out of the game this week. Brock Osweiler will be back under center for the Glory, while Landry Jones will get at least one start for the Roughnecks.
Here is the full breakdown of new names on the Injury Report ahead of Week 5.
OUT
TE Brandon Pettigrew CHA ACL Tear IR
CB Kevin Seymour LA Biceps Tear IR
TE Kellen Winslow II JAX Broken Leg IR
WR Danny Amendola SD Neck 6-8 Weeks
DE Chandler Jones CHA Abdominal Tear 2-4 Weeks
QB Christian Hackenberg OHI Hand 1-2 Weeks
DT Kawann Short TBY Concussion 1-2 Weeks
CB Devn McCourty NJ Pinched Nerve 1-2 Weeks
QB Johnny Manziel DAL Turf Toe 1-2 Weeks
DOUBTFUL
G Cody Wickman ATL Ankle
G Max Jean-Gilles ORL Hip
WR Mike Wallace SEA Knee
DE Cliff Avril OAK Thigh
G ean Locklear CHA Back
QUESTIONABLE
SS Brandon Taylor NOR Hamstring
DT Sylvester Williams LA Finger
DE Matthew Judon LV Knee
LB Jaylon Smith CHA Concussion
First Quarter Power Rankings
One month into the year and we have huge movement all across our power rankings. We absolutely had to downgrade clubs like Baltimore, New Orleans and Pittsburgh as each have struggled out of the gate. Meanwhile, we have fast risers in places like Jacksonville, San Diego, and Memphis, so you will see a lot of teams rising 5 or more spots and many others dropping by 5 or more as well. We will revisit the rankings in Weeks, 8, 12, and 16, so let’s see just how fluid the ranking gets as the season moves on.
THE SUPERIOR SEVEN
1—ARIZONA (4-0): Up 1—2nd in preseason
That the Wranglers are 4-0 is no shocker, the way they have done it, with an explosive big-play offense and with David Carr looking like an MVP candidate, that has been a surprise.
2—HOUSTON (4-0): Up 3—5th in preseason
What has been most impressive about the Gamblers is that they have won with Matt Hasselbeck dealing with injuries. It seems that the slow development of Colt McCoy is delivering exactly the type of understudy and eventual transition that Houston had hoped for.
3—MICHIGAN (3-1): Up 3—6th in preseason
The Panthers are just about where we expected them to be, among the best in the league in rushing the ball at 133.8 YPG and also boasting the league’s best scoring defense. That is a winning combination.
4—ORLANDO (3-1): Up 5—9th in preseason
The Renegades are 1st in yards allowed and 2nd in rush defense, allowing only 45.8 yards per game. That along with Russell Wilson’s continued improvement have Orlando looking very much like a contender for the division.
5—TEXAS (3-1): Up 2—7th in preseason
The loss to Ohio is the one blemish on an otherwise strong opening quarter. Marshawn Lynch has Texas in the Top 10 for rushing, taking a lot of pressure off of Joe Flacco. What is possibly surprising is that Marques Colston is under 300 yards receiving after 4 weeks. But we expect he will catch fire soon.
6--NEW JERSEY (3-1): Up 17—23rd in preseason
The Generals started the season with more questions than answers, but we have quickly learned that some of the biggest mysteries may actually be strengths. Second Year QB Brett Hundley is looking very good and DE Vic Beasley could make a real run for DPOTY as New Jersey has proven to be one of the most improved teams of the early season.
7—PHILADELPHIA (3-1): Up 9—16th in preseason
Another big riser, the Stars have gotten back to running the ball and using play action, with rookie Derrick Henry looking very much like the Rookie of the Year. The ball control offense has also helped their defense, currently ranked 5th in scoring D and 1st in run defense. This is a very positive first month for the Stars.
THE SOLID SEVEN
8—OAKLAND (3-1): Even—8th in preseason
The Invaders have struggled to find a run game without Ryan Williams, but with a solid defense they have found ways to win more often than not, though that big loss to Memphis has to worry them. They need more out of Donald Brown, and out of the passing game if they want to stay atop the Pacific.
9—CHARLOTTE (3-1): Up 5—14th in preseason
A better start for the Monarchs than many expected, despite a horrible 6:10 TD:INT ratio from Brandon Wheedon. With Adrian Peterson set to finally make an appearance in Week 5, the Monarchs have been doing it with Darren McFadden, who has 310 yards and 4 TDs already. The defense has been solid against the run, but a bit shaky against the pass.
10—JACKSONVILLE (3-1): Up 9—19th in preseason
We all know what the story has been in Jacksonville. The defense has been impressive, which must make head coach Jack Del Rio happy. The Bulls are 2nd in scoring D, allowing only 12.8 yards per game, including this week’s shutout of in-state rival Tampa Bay. They have won 3 in a row and are looking very much like a contender as long as they can produce just enough points to keep the defense from wearing down.
11—MEMPHIS (3-1): Up 11—22nd in preseason
Another quick riser after a very strong start to the year for the Showboats. Rex Ryan has to love what he is seeing out of his rebuilt defense, especially against the run, where Memphis is giving up only 52.5 yards per game. Anthony Allen has been a revelation after an injury kept Todd Gurley out for 2 weeks. Can Allen and Gurley turn Memphis into a 2-headed rushing monster?
12—SAN DIEGO (3-1): Up 8—20th in preseason
The Thunder have been another big surprise, though the success of Ryan Williams was somewhat expected. The free agent acquisition has helped balance the Thunder offense, making life easier for Joe Webb. The defense is also looking solid, with DT Haloti Ngata leading the way.
13—BIRMINGHAM (2-2): Up 2—15th in preseason
A 2-2 record is about where we expected Birmingham to be. We have not seen the big game breaking runs from Cam Newton yet this year, but what we have seen is a much-improved defense, allowing only 14.5 points per game. They did lose both division games in the season’s first month, which is not ideal, but this week’s game against Memphis should tell us where they are headed over the next 3 months.
14—DENVER (2-2): Up 3—17th in preseason
The Gold got shellacked by Arizona, but looked much more comfortable against both Jacksonville and Michigan. They could be 3-1 if not for a botched 2-point conversion this week. They have a solid and balanced offense, with DeMarco Murray and Golden Tate both getting off to good starts. The run defense needs improving however, as they are giving up over 100 yards per game.
THE STRIVING SEVEN
15—WASHINGTON (2-2): Up 3—18th in preseason
The Feds started the year strong with wins over Atlanta and Chicago, but back to back division losses to surprising Philly and New Jersey have us wondering if this club can challenge in the division. The Feds are middle of the pack on both offense and defense, so sitting at .500 seems just about right.
16—OHIO (2-2): Up 10—26th in preseason
A 2-2 start is better than we anticipated for the Glory. Having the 10th rated offense is absolutely more than we expected. Brock Osweiler has looked solid at the start of his second USFL season and he seems to have built rapport with WR Justin Blackmon. The defense is 5th in the league in yards allowed, mostly due to a pass defense allowing only 183 yards per game.
17—NEW ORLEANS (1-3): Down 16—1st in preseason
Call it a title hangover, the kind you expect on Bourbon Street, because the Breakers have really struggled over the first month of the season. The defense is as good as ever, ranked 6th in the league at 17 points per game allowed, but the offense, well, not so good. They are 25th in scoring, 23rd in rushing, and mid-table in yards and in passing. That is not what we expected after such a good 2015.
18—PITTSBURGH (1-3): Down 15—3rd in preseason
Another surprisingly slow start. Losses to Orlando, New Jersey, and Texas, and a defense giving up nearly 30 points per game are not what Mauler fans expected. Now it looks like Adam Thielen could miss a month or more of action, and that with some tough games on the horizon. The Maulers had better find their form quickly or this could be a very big letdown of a season.
19—ST. LOUIS (1-3): Down 8—11th in preseason
The Skyhawks have some good numbers, 1st in the league in pass defense, 9th in yards gained, 8th in rushing, but they are giving up nearly 26 points per game and they have been absolutely horrible defending the run, giving up over 175 yards per game, an absolutely insane number. With some run-heavy teams on the horizon, they had better address that issue and quickly.
20—PORTLAND (1-3): Down 11—9th in preseason
We expected some bumps in the road as the club rebuilds their offense with Marcus Mariota and a run game cobbled together with castoffs, but the bigger issue may be that the defense is not keeping them in games. They lost by 22 this week, and suffered a humiliating 40-0 beatdown against the Express. That has to have folks worried in the Rose City.
21—DALLAS (1-3): Down 9—12th in preseason
A trendy pick to make the playoffs and take another step forward this year, Dallas has disappointed. The defense has just not shown up. Ranked 28th in the league and allowing 30.5 points per game, this is a defensive squad that has simply not lived up to anyone’s expectations. That, along with the 25th rated passing offense, must make Roughneck fans feel deceived by the preseason hype.
THE SINKING SEVEN
22—LAS VEGAS (1-3): Up 6—28th in preseason
Yes, we still have Las Vegas in the 4th quartile of the league, but they have been playing teams tough all year. Their last 2 losses were by 3 and 2 points, and this week they got their first W. Cody Pickett has the passing game working, but they need the defense to do more if they are going to make any waves in a very tough SW Division.
23—TAMPA BAY (1-3): Up 4—27th in preseason
Fan hopes were low when the season started, and losing Pat White in the opener made the Bandits’ prospects look pretty dim. But rookie Dak Prescott has been decent and the defense has shown some moxy as well. They got shut out this week, so there are still plenty of concerns, but we are seeing some signs of life out of the Bandits.
24—ATLANTA (1-3): Down 3—21st in preseason
Losing Chris Ivory has meant that rookie Kenyan Drake has had to take on a bigger role, which has been a struggle. Kyle Orton also missed some action, but of greater concern is the defense, which has allowed far too many yards each week (360) and too many points as well (23.8). In a division where Orlando and Charlotte are already 3-1 and Jacksonville looks like a tough out, Atlanta seems to be falling behind.
25—CHICAGO (1-3): Down 1—24th in preseason
A season-opening win in LA seemed to indicate that the new-look Machine might make something happen this year, but 3 straight losses have sent them crashing down to earth. The offense is about where we thought It would be (11th in points, 13th in yards), but the defense hasto improve if Chicago is going to compete in the Central this year. They are giving up 286 yards per game in the air and nearly 27 points per game.
26—LOS ANGELES (1-3): Down 1—25th in preseason
That 40-0 decimation of Portland is looking more and more like an anomaly. Once again offense is the issue, as LA has scored 19, 14, and 15 in their 3 losses. Sam Bradford has struggled with protection and even solid outings from Reggie Bush don’t seem to be turning carries into points. The defense is 7th in scoring, but the offense just has to do more.
27—BALTIMORE (0-4): Down 23—4th in preseason
Do we really think the Blitz are the 2nd worst team in the league? No, but when you are 0-4, there are not a lot of teams you can rank above. The Blitz are just not getting results. The defense is giving up big yards in the run game and big plays left and right. Opponents are averaging 27.8 points per game, and even with the 5th best passing attack, Baltimore is just not keeping up. This is a huge shocker for us, and we are wondering if Jim Caldwell can rally the troops and get them back in this season after such a rough start.
28—SEATTLE (0-4): Down 15--13th in preseason
It may be a bit unfair to have Seattle last. After all, they have some close games, but they have also averaged 9.2 points per game on offense after 4 weeks. That is atrocious. The defense is keeping them in games, but Byron Leftwich looks like a shadow of his past self, and this offense is looking punchless. We think Seattle will win enough games to move out of the 28 spot, but it may already be too late for them to consider a playoff spot, even if they can find some offense.
Eight divisional games, including some real solid battles, highlight the Week 5 slate of games. We start of the week with a NE Division showdown between the team we thought would win the division and one that is looking like an upstart contender. Philadelphia (3-1) is looking to add to Baltimore’s pain. The Blitz are a stunning 0-4 after winning the division last year, and Philly wants to see them drop to 0-5 to be sure.
Saturday includes another NE Division clash as Pittsburgh, also surprisingly struggling this year, visits Washington. We also have one of our favorite games each year as Birmingham heads into Memphis for one of the best tailgate weekends in sports. A Stallion win would put both teams at 3-2. Saturday also sees a great inter-divisional game as Oakland (3-1) heads to Glendale to face the 4-0 Arizona Wranglers. That one is must-watch TV. The Saturday slate ends with a SW Division clash as Denver (2-2) heads to Ft. Worth for Texas’s first game at Amon Carter Stadium.
Sunday has 3 divisional games at the 12pm slot, with 4 of 5 SE division foes in action against each other. Charlotte heads to Atlanta for a battle of the two non-Florida teams, while we also have a Florida Derby between the 3-1 Orlando Renegades and the surprising 3-1 Jacksonville Bulls. That one could be a defensive slugfest as both clubs live off of their shut down defenses. At 4pm we have one more divisional matchup with San Diego headed up to winless Seattle. Can the Dragons finally get some offensive production or will the Thunder move to 4-1 on the year? Finally, Sunday night we are with ESPN and the ESPN Football Network as they simulcast the Houston v. New Orleans clash. The Breakers cannot absorb another loss this early in the year if they have any hopes of competing for the division. A huge game for the league champs as they host the unbeaten Gamblers.
Friday @ 8pm ET PHILADELPHIA (3-1) @ BALTIMORE (0-4) NBC
Saturday @ 12pm ET PITTSBURGH (1-3) @ WASHINGTON (2-2) ABC
Saturday @ 12pm ET LOS ANGELES (1-3) @ NEW JERSEY (3-1) FOX
Saturday @ 4pm ET OAKLAND (3-1) @ ARIZONA (4-0) ABC
Saturday @ 4pm ET ST. LOUIS (1-3) @ PORTLAND (1-3) FOX
Saturday @ 7pm ET BIRMINGHAM (2-2) @ MEMPHIS (3-1) NBC
Saturday @ 9pm ET DENVER (2-2) @ TEXAS (3-1) ESPN/EFN
Sunday @ 12pm ET CHARLOTTE (3-1) @ ATLANTA (1-3) ABC
Sunday @ 12pm ET ORLANDO (3-1) @ JACKSONVILLE (3-1) FOX Regional
Sunday @ 12pm ET CHICAGO (1-3) @ OHIO (2-2) FOX Regional
Sunday @ 4pm ET SAN DIEGO (3-1) @ SEATTLE (0-4) ABC Regional
Sunday @ 4pm ET TAMPA BAY (1-3) @ LAS VEGAS (1-3) ABC Regional
Sunday @ 4pm ET MICHIGAN (3-1) @ DALLAS (1-3) FOX
Sunday @ 8pm ET HOUSTON (4-0) @ NEW ORLEANS (1-3) ESPN/EFN
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