2020 USFL Divisional Playoff Recap

The Wild Card weekend gave us four 1-score games, slim margins and some back-and-forth scores. Could the Divisionals provide the same, or would the 4 top seeds in the league roll through their Wild Card opponents? Well, we got a bit of everything in this year’s Divisional Round. Michigan built up a 13-0 first half lead and went on to win by that same margin. Atlanta and Tampa Bay gave us a shootout that was not decided until the 4^th quarter. Houston gave us an upset, knocking off Memphis by 5 points, and the Arizona Wranglers gave us a surprising result, scoring on both defense and special teams to help their limping offense get the win over a very game Seattle club. As we look back on the week that was, we will break down each game, look ahead to two very intriguing Conference Finals, and try to answer the biggest questions looming for the offseason, our Big Story for this week. All this, plus we highlight some coaches getting attention as 6 teams seek new leaders, NFL players who may be headed for an inter-league jump, and some of the breakout stars of 2020 who deserve to get paid ahead of 2021.

Ten Biggest USFL Offseason Questions (Part 1)

We pulled together our bullpen once again and asked what are the biggest questions around the league as we look at a shortened USFL offseason. The team came up with 10 burning questions. Each deserves some exploration, so we are going to provide numbers 10-6 this week and finish with the top 5 next week in our Conference Title Game recap edition. Ten big questions that will define the offseason, and could very well be profoundly impactful on the 2021 season to come. Here we go, with number 10-6. Let’s get to it.

10) Which Alabama Stars Will Birmingham Pounce On?

While the USFL’s Territorial Draft has helped each club bring in local talent, connect fans of college football with the league, and create a pipeline of talent from the NCAA to the USFL, the balance of benefit has never been particularly fair. While teams like the Denver Gold and New Jersey Generals only rarely find top tier prospects emerging from their protected schools, others, like the LA Express, Tampa Bay Bandits, and Ohio Glory regularly see Top 10 prospects within their sphere of protection. No team, however, has had a more regular pipeline of blue chip talent headed their way year in and year out than the Birmingham Stallions. Between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Auburn Tigers, the pool of potential draft picks seems endless. And, once again in 2021 Birmingham has tough decisions to make, since they are only able to protect 3 players and the pool is once again a deep one.

The Stallions are looking at a crop of talent out of Alabama that would make any GM giddy. The problem is that they can only protect 3 of these prospects, and that is if they don’t accept any trade offers for those picks, offers that almost always emerge when other teams see the talent the Stallions have in front of them. Looking at the 2021 crop of Crimson Tide talent, the quality is obvious. Here are just our Top 6 players from that pool:

WR Jaylen Waddle: A speedburner who could be better than Ruggs or Jeudy from last year’s crop.

CB Patrick Surtain II: A “legacy” player who is viewed as the top corner in the draft.

WR DeVonta Smith: Wide Receiver U. just keeps producing studs at the position.

QB Mac Jones: Seen as a potential 1^st rounder, despite some limitations.

OT Alex Leatherwood: Can start at RT for most USFL teams right away.

HB Najee Harris: Strong, shifty, and with great breakaway speed.

DT Christian Barmore: An earthmover who can eat up blocks.

So, what does Birmingham do? Well, we know they are hoping to get a true bell cow back since their run game is just not working with a rotating backfield, so we think Najee Harris is their first pick. But do they add more receivers? Or do they go defense with Surtain? And if they are not going with a wideout, will they trade away their 3^rd pick to a team that is in need? If they do, likely only to a Western Conference team. But they could also go for either Leatherwood or possibly center Landon Dickerson, another potential stud on the line.

9) Which Defenders Will Be Free Agent Targets?

As we look at the players either currently out of contract, or about to be so as their playoff team is eliminated, we see plenty of talent, particularly on defense. So, who are the biggest targets for USFL clubs? Who likely gets multiple offers and a chance to enter a new tax bracket? We have picked out 10 defensive gems who are likely to be available in just over 2 weeks, when the USFL free agent period begins. Will your team nab one of these top talents?

CB Brandon Carr (DAL): At 34, Carr is likely looking for a 1-2 year deal. A quality defender in both zone and man, but coming off a somewhat disappointing year with only 1 pick.

CB Eric Wright (OAK): Another player in his mid-30’s who still has the wheels to play this game, Wright has had 13 picks in the past 3 years, the best 3-year stint of his career.

DE Justin Tuck (MGN): The Panthers hope to resign Tuck, who at 33 still seems more than game to keep playing. If he gets into the pool, he may be the top DE available.

LB Nathan Triplett (MEM): Our parade of players in their mid-30’s continues with 34-year old Triplett, who had 62 tackles this year, down from the mid-80s the past 2 seasons.

FS Xavier Woods (TBY): At 24 and already recognized as one of the best at his position, we think Woods will test the waters, hoping for a big payday. He should almost certainly get one, but it may mean giving up his spot on a Summer Bowl contender to go to a team with less talent around him.

DE Dante Fowner (HOU): A very solid pass rusher, who sometimes struggles to be a factor against the run. Fowler would be best suited to move to a team that uses a 4-3 alignment, where he can play the edge and get LB support behind him against outside runs.

DE Vic Beasley (NJ): After recording 16, 15, and 19 sacks his first three years, Beasley has not hit those heights the last 3 (8, 13, 12). That said, any player with 10 or more sacks the past 2 years is going to get some offers. His goal should be to find a team with a strong interior line, helping to free him up against single blocks.

LB Patrick Willis (ATL): Not the sideline-to-sideline force he used to be, the 34-year-old linebacker can still be a force on the strongside. He has the skills to get past initial blocks and disrupt the run game and he still holds his own in coverage as well.

CB Dwayne Gratz (BIR): An undervalued corner who can shut down pretty much anyone but the most elite receivers. Gratz had 4 picks this year, but also secured 90 tackles, an insane number for a corner, but one that shows that he will play the run.

DT Sheldon Richardson (STL): Mired on a pretty bad defense, Richardson still impresses with his ability to shed blockers and penetrate the line. He could be a monster on a solid 3-4 line that has at least one reputable pass rusher.

Honorable Mention: CB Syd’Quan Thompson (OHIO), DE Jerry Hughes (SEA), FS Micah Hyde (CHI), DT Dan Williams (MEM), and LB Dont’a Hightower (TBY).

8) Will Free Agents Delay Signing to Get NFL Offers?

This is the question bothering all USFL GM’s. Will their targeted players hold out until February, when USFL camps are already in action and the NFL-USFL Transfer Window opens up. Some teams are already asking the League Office to negotiate an earlier window this year, and the NFL might go for that, since they did not get a September Window as they usually do. If the window stays where it is, that is a risky call for players, who would miss minicamps and even some of each team’s training camp, but the payoff could be huge as NFL teams line up to join the free agent market. Of course, NFL talent will also be there, so we end up with a very insecure situation and a very tricky one for all involved.

7) Which USFL Club Will Find a Difference Making Head Coach?

We have six openings in the USFL and every team, every fan base, in that group is hoping for the same thing. They are hoping for what Tampa Bay got in 2019 and what we saw with Atlanta this year, a sudden rise from the bottom of the standings up and into the playoffs. It may seem unrealistic, but both recent history and the USFL past all the way back to the 80’s shows that adding the right coach can take a 10-loss team and flip the script to join the playoff picture in their first year. We have seen it time and again. And, sure, there are some teams that have talent and seem ready to rebound if they can get the right coach, while others seem to be longer term projects. But the big question is really who, not if. Who has the stuff to turn potential into output? Later on in this week’s report, we look at 5 coaches getting a lot of attention, but are any of them the right one for the job? After all, for every Mark Trestman or Jaime Elizondo, there is a June Jones, Doug Williams, or Romeo Crennel, a coach that comes in and actually seems to make things worse, leading to a 2-year or even 1-year tenure that ends with the team needing to start over from scratch.

6) Which 2020 Starting QBs Will Play Elsewhere in 2021?

This is a fun one, because it is pure speculation. There are no 2020 USFL starters at the position in this year’s free agent pool, as is the norm, but there are some who started the season under center and ended on the bench (either from demotion or injury) and there are other teams who may well just be looking to go a new direction. So, do we have any 2020 starters that are potentially going to be suited up in different colors in 2021? We think the answer is yes, and here are the 5 players we are watching this offseason, possible offseason cuts, or potential trade fodder if a team can get the answer at QB they want.

Matt Gutierrez (PHI): It seems clear that the Stars are not going to ride or die with Gutierrez, despite his early career success. The former All-USFL QB has just not been the same player since 2017. His QB Rating has dropped every year since, and he was benched this year for a journeyman backup in Ryan Lindley. That tells us that Philadelphia is going to look for a solution at QB this offseason, and once they think they have it (or maybe even before) they will try to find a new home for Gutierrez, who still has 2 more seasons on his contract.

Jacoby Brissett (SEA): The success of Brett Hundley this year, and the almost certain pay raise he will get with a new deal, means that Seattle has to consider moving Brissett. When healthy, Brissett is a very solid QB, One who looked very good in his last full season (2017) and had strong numbers in 2019 as well. The problem is he has lost 2 of the past 3 seasons to early season injuries. That makes him a risky prospect, but there almost certainly will be a team out there willing to take that risk if it means an upgrade at the position.

Mason Rudolph (OKL): We are not sure if the Outlaws want to move Rudolph, but we know there are teams interested. Both Rudolph and Jalen Hurts are on rookie deals, so neither needs to be moved for salary cap support, but Coach Stoops may want to avoid any perceived QB controversy and give Hurts the full confidence of the team as a starter. That, combined with the very likely calls coming in from teams looking for a quality option at QB might be enough to get Stoops to move Rudolph off the roster, especially if the deal is a good one.

Ryan Nassib (WSH): The Nassib experiment has not gone well in Washington. The former Wrangler has simply not been able to replicate his 2018 success with Arizona. His numbers this year (2909 Yds, 15 TDs, 11 Int, 77.5 QBR) are not going to draw a lot of interest, but one team that may be interested is Arizona, especially if David Carr’s rehab does not go as planned. We know Nassib and Coach Tomsula worked well together, so there is a chance for a homecoming if Arizona thinks one is needed.

Christian Hackenberg (OHIO): Is there anyone out there who does not think the Glory will woo Ohio State’s Justin Fields like he is Cinderella at the ball? The writing is on the wall, but the Glory cannot move Hackenberg until Field is signed, sealed and delivered. But if he does sign on, which all of Columbus seems to want, then we think a late offseason move, perhaps to another USFL club that failed to sign their rookie QB prospect, is more than a 50/50 prospect.

A few other names were mentioned in our bullpen, but seem less likely to go anywhere unless the perfect scenario plays out. They include Nick Foles in New Jersey, Josh Freeman in Dallas, and Teddy Bridgewater in Jacksonville. Teddy B only moves if the Bulls decide to go all in on Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, and even then, only if they feel good about having a veteran backup if they do land the likely Heisman winner. Freeman is willing to be a veteran backup and mentor for Justin Herbert, but if the right deal is there, we could see Dallas trade him. As for Foles, he only leaves New Jersey if the offer is perfect for them, and only if they have another option at QB, which right now they do not.

There you go, five of the top 10 burning questions of the USFL offseason. Next week we get to even hotter topics, including a 12-time All-USFL defender who is still unsigned, but does not seem ready to retire, and the big question for 2021, the state of the world and the reality of returning to “normal” as the Covid-19 virus continues unabated across the nation and the world.

CHICAGO MACHINE 14  MICHIGAN PANTHERS 27

The Panthers dominate their division rivals as the defense steps up and shuts down Chicago in a game that was not as close as the final score would have you believe. Michigan built up a 27-7 lead by dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and getting big stops on the Machine offense all game long. Chicago finished the game with only 11 first downs, limited to 3 of 11 on third and fourth downs, and held to only 54 yards rushing as the Panthers take the win and move on to the Conference Championship.

While Chicago did a good job against LeVeon Bell, holding him to only 3.3 yards per carry on the way to 73 yards on the game, Michigan’s balance helped them put points on the board, starting with a 14-play drive in the first quarter that included a big 3^rd and 11 conversion as Kirk Cousins got good protection and found Kevin Kraft for a 16-yard completion. Later in the drive, LeVeon Bell would convert a 3^rd and 3 with a good second effort. He would be rewarded with the call from the 2-yard line, punching the ball in for the game’s first score.

Chicago’s first drive ended with a turnover on downs after Coach Smith decided to go for it on 4^th and 1 from his own 44. Michigan penetrated the line and shut down Marion Mack before he could get back to the line of scrimmage, giving the Panthers a short field which quicky turned into another 3 points as Chase McLaughlin made it a 2-score game midway through the first quarter. For the rest of the game, Smith would be a lot more cautious, and for the rest of the half, both offenses would struggle, with Michigan crossing the 50 only once, producing another field goal, while Chicago’s lone foray into Michigan territory ended outside of field goal range and produced a punt.

Leading 13-0 at the half, Michigan prepared to shorten the game with their rushing offense, avoiding risky plays and trying to avoid third and long as much as possible. Chicago, on the other hand, had to take more chances and seek a big play to get back in it. On their second possession of the 3^rd quarter, they finally hit on one as Sam Bradford found WR Michael Floyd for a 32-yard gain on a nice play action call. That finally put the ball deep in Michigan territory, and 4 plays later, Bradford found Chase Claypool for a 5-yard TD toss on a quick inside slant. Chicago was in business at 13-7.

Chicago’s momentum would be eaten away over the next 5 minutes as Michigan marched down field, requiring only 1 third down conversion to keep their drive alive. Helped by a pair of offsides calls against the aggressive Chicago line, Michigan marched into Machine territory, got a nice 10-yard run from Alexander Mattison to get inside the Chicago 10, and then put 7 more on the board with Cousins finding rookie Donavan Peoples-Jones to make the score 20-7 and rebuild the 13-point lead.

When Mattison had another strong run early in the 4^th, this time a touchdown run to give Michigan a 27-7 lead with only 6 minutes to play, Chicago was cooked. They needed 3 scores in less than 6 minutes, and it just was not going to happen against the Panther defense. The would get one of the three they needed, a late TD pass from Bradford to HB Jeremy Hill, but it was far too little and the Panthers comfortably took the 13-point victory and the ticket to next week’s Western Conference Championship. The Player of the Game was chosen, CB Dre Kirkpatrick, whose pick of Bradford was the lone turnover in the game, but the true POTG was the defensive scheme itself, one which reduced Chicago to a one-dimensional attack and came up big on multiple 3^rd down attempts.

---

ATLANTA FIRE 28  TAMPA BAY BANDITS 35

We thought we might get more offensive fireworks this week than we saw in Week 15 when these two Southeastern rivals met, and we did, with the two teams combining for 9 touchdowns and over 800 combined yards. Atlanta was the more balanced team, with Aaron Murray throwing for 293 while the combination of Chubb and Drake added 145 on the ground, but while Tampa Bay only rushed for 88 yards, it was enough to keep Atlanta’s defense honest and allow Dak Prescott to complete 20 of 33 for 300 yards and 3 scores.

In a game that saw Atlanta take out a 14 point lead at the half, Tampa Bay turned on the afterburners in the second half to outpace the Fire 28-7 and take the 7-point victory. It was exactly the kind of offensive display that fans love, well, all but fans of the Fire, who came up short after holding a nice halftime lead. The Fire built that lead an some nice early playcalls against Tampa’s defense. The Fire got Nick Chubb started early, carrying the ball 7 times on the first 2 drives, and producing 54 of his 100 yards in the first quarter. His early success made it possible for Aaron Murray to get time to throw the ball, and to connect on two first quarter touchdowns, one to TE O. J. Howard, and the second a beautiful deep ball to Kelvin Benjamin to build up a 14-0 lead at the end of the first.

Tampa’s offense, largely held in check in the first quarter, finally found its stride in the 2^nd, putting together a quick-strike 6-play, 58-yard drive that included a 33-yard catch & run from TE Jordan Cameron. The drive concluded with 7 points as Dalvin Cook took the ball off tackle to the left to put the Bandits on the board. Back within 7, their hope was to get the ball back quickly and even things up on their next possession, but, while they did get the ball back with 7:02 left in the half, a missed throw from Prescott on a 3^rd and 7 created a 3-and-out and possession went back to the Fire.

Atlanta drove the ball down the field as the clock ticked by, eating up nearly 5 minutes on their next possession, thanks again to the ground game, and it would be the ground game that would rebuild their 14-point advantage as Nick Chubb scored Atlanta’s third TD of the game, giving them a 21-7 with 43 seconds left in the 2^nd quarter. Tampa Bay scrambled to get into field goal range to cut the lead down, but the ask of Harrison Butker, forced to attempt a 57-yarder, was too much and the Fire maintained their 14-point advantage as the two teams headed to the locker rooms.

We don’t know what the magic words from Coach Trestman were at the half, but they certainly inspired a sense of urgency among the Bandits coming out of the break. Tampa Bay took the opening kickoff, moved to a hurry-up, no huddle offense, and put 7 on the board in only 6 plays and 2:28 off the clock. In a drive that saw Prescott hit Dez Bryant for a 46-yarder, backup HB Matt Breida put points on the board with a 22-yard run around the right side and down the sideline. The score halved Atlanta’s advantage, but perhaps more importantly, it built up confidence among the Bandits.

That confidence would be on display on both sides of the ball, as Tampa Bay held Atlanta to only 42 yards in the 3^rd quarter, causing them to fail on all 3 third downs they were forced to convert. Meanwhile the offense kept moving quickly. They moved a bit too quickly on their 2^nd possession of the half, stymied by a 3^rd down penalty, but on their 3^rd and final possession of the quarter, they again moved the ball crisply down the field before Prescott found his favorite target, Dez Bryant, for the equalizer, a 13-yard fade route that tied the game at 21.

The Bandit momentum carried into the final period. After yet another short drive by Atlanta producing only a punt, Tampa Bay moved the ball again, ready to take their first lead of the day. They got it on a short toss from Prescott to Ryan Grant at the end of a 10-play drive. Now up 28-21, the feeling of the game had shifted and it was the Bandits who seemed to hold all the cards.

But Atlanta was not ready to give up the ghost on this day. They knew a drive was needed and they finally found a way to put one together. Moving away from a run game that had failed them in the second half, they relied on Aaron Murray, and their QB delivered. Murray completed 4 of 6 passing, including a 29-yard completion to A. J. Green to get the ball into Tampa Bay territory. Murray then found O. J. Howard on a nicely-run seam route, hooking up for a 17-yard touchdown to tie the game at 28. But, with 9 minutes of action left to go, there was more than enough time for either team to get the advantage, and the team that found a way to do so is Tampa Bay.

The Bandits moved the ball quite a bit more tentatively, or perhaps more deliberately is the way to express it. Their next drive took over 6 minutes and 14 plays before Deebo Samuel would put them up 7 with a 6-yard reception. For the first time all game, Tampa Bay seemed confident in their ability to slow the game down and still move the chains. They got 4 of their 14 first downs in the game on this one drive, taking what Atlanta gave them, with no play longer than 11 yards. In the end, the result is what they needed, a fifth touchdown and a 35-28 lead with 2:34 left to play.

But, 2:34 is a lot of time in USFL football. Atlanta would have time, and with 2 timeouts left, they had 3 chances to stop the clock if they could keep the ball and move the chains. They did so on their first set of downs, getting the ball from the 25 to the 36 in only 2 plays. They did so again, moving the ball to the 46 in 3 plays, but time was ticking down and the Fire needed a touchdown. They continued to move the ball, but every first down they made took precious time off the clock. By the time they got to the Tampa Bay 24, needing a touchdown to tie the game, they had only 17 seconds left.

An incompletion on 1^st and 10 from the 22 left them with 12 seconds. But they still had 3 downs to either score or get the ball closer. Time, and not yardage, became the enemy, but there is one thing that cannot happen in this situation and it is exactly what happened. Atlanta came out in a 3-receiver set, with Murray in the shotgun. But when O. J. Howard went out into a pass route, it left the right tackle all alone against Bandit DE Brian Burns. Burns beat his man, pursued Murray, who turned back, trying to get Burns to overshoot him, but the Bandit DT did not, he instead caught the calf of Murray, sending him sprawling to the ground.

The Fire needed to get back to the line to spike the ball on 3^rd down just to give themselves 1 more play. But it was too hectic on the field, too many receivers trying to get back onsides, and as the Fire scrambled, the clock ticked down to 2, then 1, then 0. The game ended just as the Fire tried to get the snap off. Coach Elizondo tried to plead that there was a second left, but the officials would not hear it. Tampa Bay was the winner, they would advance, and the Fire would go into the offseason thinking they had gotten close, but not close enough.

---

SEATTLE DRAGONS 17  ARIZONA WRANGLERS 30

The question on everyone’s mind heading into Sunday’s game was which Arizona Wrangler squad would take the field against Seattle? Would it be the team that started the year 12-0 and seemingly unstoppable? Or would it be the team that finished 0-4 after losing QB David Carr? In the final month of the season it seemed more was wrong with Arizona than just a shaky QB situation. The defense was being asked to do too much, the offense was capable of too little, and when Coach Tomsula announced that it would be his 3^rd stringer, Tom Savage, getting the playoff start as his first ever pro start, well, it is easy to see why confidence was not high for Wrangler Nation.

But Arizona did what all good teams do when the chips are down. They came out and played complementary football in all 3 phases, using every possible advantage against the 10-6 Dragons. They set a tone early and stayed consistent throughout, even as Seattle clawed back into contention on multiple occasions. QB Tom Savage struggled, as most thought he would, completing only 10 of 31 passes for 126 yards, but others stepped up, and when Seattle suffered their own QB injury, with Brett Hundley going down late in the first half with an injury to his throwing arm, the tone of the game changed.

Arizona came out in this game with every intention to battle from the opening kickoff, and that spirit became evident early when an errant pass from Hundley on the Dragons’ opening drive turned into a disaster, with CB Jeremy Lane taking the ball away from Amari Cooper and racing it to the endzone for a defensive touchdown. The situation became even worse for Seattle, when two possessions later they punted the ball away to N’Keal Harry and the elusive Arizona return man took it back 61 yards for a second Wrangler score.

Seattle, despite holding Arizona to two early 3-and-outs on offense, was down 14-0 at the end of the first quarter. It would get even more dire in the 2^nd, as Arizona finally found some success on offense, adding a field goal to the scoreboard to take a 17-0 advantage. Then, on their next possession, Seattle QB Brett Hundley was crushed by Arizona DE Bud DuPree, causing a fluttering ball that was picked off by Wrangler CB Joe Haden, but also producing a game-ending injury to Hundley. That meant that Bruce Gradkowski would have to go the rest of the way at QB for the Dragons, coming into the game down 17.

Gradkowski would start strong for Seattle, helping them put 14 points on the board in the 2^nd quarter. Helped by a defensive pass interference call on their next possession, Seattle got the ball deep into Arizona territory and HB Gus Edwards put the Dragons’ first points on the board. Just 2 minutes later, after another Arizona 3-and-out, Seattle was back in possession of the ball again, and this time Gradkowski hit on a big play, faking the ball to Knowshon Moreno before releasing a rainbow down the sideline to Marshall Newhouse. The Dragon receiver brought the ball in, avoided stepping out along the sideline and pulled Seattle back to within 3 with a 43-yard touchdown.

That score would hold into the half, with Seattle now feeling like the game could still be theirs, even without Hundley under center. The third quarter proved that taking over the lead from Arizona would not be an easy task. Seattle struggled to get anywhere in the third quarter, amassing only 2 first downs and 27 yards in the period. Arizona, meanwhile, began to show signs of life on offense. They had one drive which ended with a missed field goal, but which showed they could move the ball against the Dragon D. On the next drive they proved it, going 71 yards in 12 plays before Tom Savage completed his first career touchdown pass, a modest 7-yard completion to DeMarcus Robinson, but a huge play for the Wrangler offense.

Seattle entered the final quarter down 10 and needing some big plays. Those plays just did not come as Arizona locked down the Dragon receivers, pressured Gradkowski, and forced 3 failed third down conversions. In the meantime, the Wrangler offense gained enough of a field position foothold to allow Elliott Parson to kick two more field goals. Even with a Seattle field goal added into the mix, it was not nearly enough for the Dragons. Arizona held them in check for the final 10 minutes of action and walked away with a playoff victory. Their offense had only mustered 209 total yards, and Savage had completed only 32.3% of his passes, but with the assistance of the defense and a brilliant special teams play from N’Keal Harry, it was enough for the 3-time USFL champion to reach the Conference Final.

---

HOUSTON GAMBLERS 24  MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS 19

The final game of the weekend was a classic divisional showdown between the Showboats, winners of the division for the first time in over a decade, and the Gamblers, frequent Southern champions and Summer Bowl participant. Houston, as the 6 seed, had upended NE Division Champion Baltimore to get here, but now faced a team that knew them about as well as any team could. Memphis, having rested players during the Wild Card weekend, came in confident and eager to prove they were a deserving division champion.

The game that ensued was one defined by missed opportunities. Memphis moved the ball into the red zone on 5 separate occasions but came away with only 1 touchdown as the Houston defense turned them away, producing 2 Showboat field goals of 30 yards or less and 2 turnovers. Houston, for their part, only reached the red zone twice, but both trips produced 7 points apiece. That, combined with a stunning, almost miraculous 90-yard TD pass in the waning seconds of the first half, allowed the 6 seed to come away with another upset victory and for Houston to once again make it back to a conference title game.

The opening quarter of this game saw Houston take an early lead as their scripted first drive produced their first red zone trip, an 8-play drive that concluded with Colt McCoy finding JuJu Smith-Schuster for a 13-yard touchdown. But the rest of the first half seemed a struggle for Houston. What started as a 7-0 lead on a solid first drive, turned into a series of frustrating drives that included a failed 4^th down attempt in Memphis territory and an interception by McCoy. Memphis, in the meantime, had found their offense, using all three backs, Gurley, Hester, and David Williams, to force Houston’s safeties towards the line, and allowing Paxton Lynch to make some plays outside. Memphis opened their scoring with a short field goal after a failed 3^rd and goal throw, but responded on the next possession with a TD pass from Lynch to Robert Woods to take the lead. When a 2^nd Lewis Ward field goal gave them a 13-7 lead with only 11 seconds left in the 2^nd quarter, it seemed the Showboats were looking very good in this rivalry game.

But what happened next was simply a back-breaking, or rather a spirit-breaking play. After fielding the kick on the 20, only to get a holding call that forced Houston to take possession on the 10, everyone and their uncle thought the half was over and Houston would call a run to end the half. Fans in the stadium headed to the concessions stands, fans at home almost certainly made a bee-line to the kitchen or the bathroom. But Houston did not settle for a 13-7 deficit going into the half. Colt McCoy faked the ball to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, bootlegged to the right and let loose a deep shot down the sideline. At the end of that deep shot was Smith-Schuster, having gained at least a 2-step lead over the corner and with the safety nowhere in sight. The speedy Gambler receiver took the ball in stride, raced down the sideline, eventually curving back to the hashmark and crossing the goalline with only 4 ticks on the clock. Houston had scored on a 90-yard bomb in the final seconds of the half. They would take the lead with the PAT, and they would go into the half a jubilant bunch, while Memphis went to the locker rooms shellshocked.

That disparity in energy carried over into the second half. Houston would get the only points of the 3^rd quarter, a 33-yard Koo field goal, but, just 48 seconds into the 4^th quarter, Colt McCoy hit Denzel Mims for a 10-yard TD and Memphis, seemingly sleepwalking through the second half, found themselves down 11, with Houston up 24-13. Memphis would need to score twice in the next 14:12 of game time, and while they added a field goal on their next possession, that only brought them within 8.

With Houston now playing keep away with their run game, Memphis got only 2 more possessions in the game. On their first, they were forced to punt. On their 2^nd they oddly settled for a field goal with 3:40 left to play, pulling them within 5, but still requiring a TD to get the win. The hope, it seemed, was that the defense could get the ball back quickly and give Memphis a 2-minute drill to get the win. The problem was this, the Showboats had to stop Houston immediately to get that shot. Houston, for their part, needed only a couple of first downs and the game would be out of reach for their division rivals.

Houston got the first of their needed first downs when Carlos Hyde, initially stopped behind the line, slid off the tackle attempt and pushed forward to convert a 3^rd and 2. The second would come from an overly aggressive Memphis front line. Needing a stop on 3^rd and 3, Memphis overreacted to a hard count from McCoy and DT Dan Williams crossed into the neutral zone. The Showboats protested that there was a false start, but the officials clearly saw defensive line encroachment, called it, and thus gave the Gamblers a first down and a chance to end the game on offense.

Houston did just that, combining one Hyde inside run with two kneel downs. They celebrated on the field as the final 27 seconds ran off the clock, no punt needed on 4^th down. The Gamblers had pulled off a second upset victory and were now headed to face the 15-1 Bandits in a true test of experience vs. talent, tenacity vs. bravado in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Seattle Now Turns Their Attention to Their QB Situation

The Seattle Dragons had a solid season, especially when you consider that their Week 1 starting QB went down to a season-ending injury in the opener. For the second time in 3 years Jacoby Brissett was lost to injury and the Dragons had to scramble and scrap for nearly the entire season. But, while Seattle fans were not sure what the season would bring, Mike Riley proved once again that he has an eye for QB talent. After finding success with Matt McGloin in 2018, success that landed McGloin a multi-year deal to lead the Las Vegas Vipers, he found another gem in free agency, landing former New Jersey Generals’ castoff Brett Hundley.

Hundley got the call to be the Seattle starter after not taking a start since 2017 in New Jersey. He immediately proved that the Generals had made a mistake. In 15 games, Hundley threw for 3,818 yards and 27 touchdowns. He finished the year as the 6^th rated QB in the league, ahead of such prominent QBs as Atlanta’s Aaron Murray, Chicago’s Sam Bradford, and even Houston’s Colt McCoy.

It was a coming out party for the former General, and it now creates a real question for Riley.

After the 2018 season, Riley did not have a lot of options. Matt McGloin was a free agent, and after his own strong season in Seattle, his agent and he were all about testing the market. They got a great deal and a chance to be the unquestioned starter in Las Vegas. This time around Seattle has Hundley under contract through next year, and while he likely will want to negotiate a bigger and better deal as an extension, they also have Jacoby Brissett under contract for 2 more seasons. So, do they hold onto both? Does Riley allow for a true QB competition? Or does he trade one of the two to acquire more cap space and maybe some immediate help at other positions?

It is certainly not the worst situation for a coach, a GM, and a team to be in, to have two solid QBs. But it is a situation that will lead to second guessing no matter what decision is made. There are going to be Brissett fans upset if he is shipped off, Hundley fans who will not want him to return to the bench, and plenty of folks bringing up the well-worn platitude about having 2 quarterbacks as not really having one at all. We expect that Riley and the Dragons will get inquiries about both Brissett and Hundley. After all, there are plenty of teams in the USFL who could use an upgrade at the most important position on the field. But the decision will be the Dragons’ to make. Keep two quality QBs on the roster and let them fight it out for the starts, or make a deal and declare one of the two your franchise guy. This is a situation we all will be keeping our eye on this winter.

Lovie Smith Brushes Off 4th Down Call Criticism

It is never easy to be a head football coach, especially when your team loses a playoff game to a fierce rival. There is always criticism, always questions about your decisions, and when your decisions include a very early attempt on 4^th down, one that failed and led to your opponent building up a 2-score lead, well, you have to expect some criticism. Lovie Smith is hearing that in spades this week after a failed attempt to go for a 4^th and 2 on their opening drive of the game. Already down 7, the turnover on downs gave Michigan a short field, leading to a 33-yard Chase McLaughlin field goal and putting Chicago in a 10-0 hole that they never really recovered from. Michigan would go on to take a 13-0 lead into the half, and while Chicago played better in the 2^nd half, they never truly cut into that lead, losing by 13.

Many in the Chicago press, and certainly on sports radio call-in shows, are pointing to that early game decision as a key turning point in the game. Punt, they say, and the Panthers perhaps don’t add a 2^nd score so early, and maybe Chicago gets good field position and can put some points on the board. It is a bit of an overstatement to say that a 1^st quarter decision turned the game, but that is the critique. Smith, of course, has defended the decision, in the post-game press conference, and in interviews on Monday, taking responsibility for several key decisions in the game, but he is also quick to highlight that Chicago did come back on Michigan in the 2^nd half, and that it was not the first half that defined the game. But, as is so often the case, the media and the fans want a scapegoat. They want to be able to blame the loss on one moment, one poor decision, but the reality is that Michigan simply outplayed the Machine, on that play to be sure, but at so many other points in the game, that one early turnover on downs hardly made the game break one way. The game as a whole was Michigan’s before and after that call.

Ryan Rages against Refs, Better Prepare to Pay some Fines

Another coach who is under some heat, and perhaps not taking it very well, is Memphis’s Rex Ryan. The Showboats were favored over Wild Card Houston, and they had their moments in the game, but in the end, they fell 24-19. Our analysis was that the Showboats struggled in the red zone and failed to turn good opportunities into touchdowns, settling for far too many field goals in the game. Ryan’s analysis has been quite different, pointing to the officiating and insisting that his team was given a raw deal. Yes, there were some controversial calls or no-calls in the game, including one pass play that could have been defensive pass interference on Michigan’s Dre Kirkpatrick but was not called. There were other times when Ryan protested on the sideline but did not sway the referees, including a video challenge that did not go his way and cost him a time out late in the 4^th.

Yes, as with most games, there were calls that could have been made, calls that could have gone the other way, and decisions by the refs that could be called 50/50 shots. But, if you ask Ryan, the balance was not there. The calls slanted the game to the Panthers and he is not afraid to call that out. Of course, the game result is set, so calling the refs out is not going to get Memphis a shot at the Conference Title game. What it is going to do is produce some USFL fines against Ryan for his vocal outbursts and his public calling out of USFL officiating. Would we really expect anything else from the son of famous hothead Buddy Ryan? After all, it was Rex’s dad who got thrown out of a game (and subsequently fired) for punching one of his own coordinators on the sideline. While Rex has not gotten physical yet, his mouth has gotten him into trouble more than a few times and we expect this week’s outbursts about the officiating to get added to his reputation as a “composure-challenged” head coach.

One Seed Weak Spots

This week we saw both one seeds find playoff success, with the Panthers winning by 13 and Tampa Bay surviving a challenge from the Atlanta Fire thanks to a 28-point second half. So, just how do you knock off the 1-seed? While this year does not provide the kind of home field advantage most one seeds enjoy in the postseason, the truth is that the Panthers and Bandits are the top seeded teams for a reason. They have combined for 31 wins and only 3 losses this season, and they are stacked up and down the roster. But do they have weaknesses? And are those weaknesses that the Gamblers and Wranglers can exploit? Well, let’s see what we see. 

MICHIGAN

The Panthers live and die with the run game. LeVeon Bell can ruin a defensive game plan, but even when he is held in check, it forces teams to commit to stop the run and that leaves them susceptible to play action vertical passing. So, how do you beat that.

The key is to take the lead early and force Michigan away from the run game in the 2^nd half. That is not easy to do, not against the Panther defense, but if the Wranglers can play aggressively on offense, particularly early, and get a 10 or 14 point advantage, they can force Michigan to rely more on the passing game, removing at least some of their offensive balance and the threat of Bell carrying the ball 25-30 times. The problem, of course, is that the Arizona offense has hardly been a high-flying aerial assault since David Carr went down. They may simply not have it in them to rack up early points, which means they are likely going to see a lot of Bell and the Panther offense this week.

TAMPA BAY

The Bandits are an even tougher nut to crack. They can beat you by balancing Dalvin Cook runs with the passing game, or they can go full spread and just keep the ball in the air. And if you do manage to keep the Bandit offense contained, you still have to deal with the league’s 2^nd best scoring defense. So, where is the weakness?

It’s the run defense. Tampa Bay is ranked 23^rd in the league against the run, but the problem there is that they often can get teams out of a patient run game by putting points on the board early (essentially they are the perfect foil for Michigan, as we outlined above). So, what does Houston need to do?

They need to feed the ball to Carlos Hyde, even if they are down more than 1 score. If they can get Hyde rolling early, they can then use their strong outside passing game to better effect. They want to get Xavier Woods and Derwin James in the box, trying to control Hyde, so that Evans and Smith-Schuster can get beyond the coverage. That is the best option the Gamblers have. They do match up well, particularly because Hyde is such a weapon, but the key is to keep Tampa Bay from doing the same to them. They need to keep the game in the 20’s, not try to get in a score-for-score battle. Houston has a lot of experience in elimination games, and Coach Phillips always comes up with some defensive wrinkles, but the pressure will be there. Keep pace with the Bandits early, avoid getting behind, avoid the big play, and force Tampa Bay to be methodical. If you can keep them from hitting on the quick scoring plays, and you can use Hyde to force the Tampa safeties up, well, the 6-seed Gamblers would then have their best chance to pull yet another upset.

No major adjustments this week, with each of the 4 teams dealing with a few bruises and late-season wear and tear, but we will not see any high-impact injuries beyond those the teams have already been dealing with this postseason.

ARZ:      WR V. Cruz (Out), QB D. Carr (Out), G C. Levin (Q), FS N. Allen (P)

MGN:   WR C. Ridley (Out), OT D. Dotson (Q), WR C. Latimer (P), DT R. Lawrence (P)

HOU:    QB L. Jones (Out), DT N. Fairley (Out), G J. Asamoah (D), SS K. Vaccaro (Q)

TBY:       LB T. Smith (P)

---

Five Coaches Being Given a Long Look this Offseason

With six coaching positions sitting empty across the USFL there will be a lot of competition for top candidates and a lot of impetus on trying to find the right fit as quickly as possible. So, who is in the mix for a position? There will almost certainly be a mix of former USFL and NFL head coaches in the mix, some coordinators will absolutely be given a long look, and we may even see a team or two try to follow the path of the Bandits and bring in a CFL coach. When we look at who is available now, or will be in the next few weeks, some names popped up as early potential candidates. Here are five we think are going to get some calls, some interviews, and maybe a shot at a job this winter.

Greg Landry (EFN Commentator, Former Outlaws HC)

The former USFL quarterback spent 9 years as the head coach for the Texas Outlaws (well, 8, and 1 in Oklahoma) and while Texas did not win a title in that span, they did spend 7 years at or above .500, make 5 consecutive playoff appearances, win their division twice and make a Summer Bowl appearance. Landry is not the guy you want if you are hoping to have a truly innovative offense. He is more of a traditional pro-style, vertical game guy, but that can be very effective and he has proven he can get wins in this league, which for some teams may well be enough to sign him on.

Jay Gruden (Former Fire & NFL Redskins HC)

The brother of NFL stalwart Jon Gruden, Jay has bounced around a bit. He had a short 3-year stint with the expansion Atlanta Fire from 2006-2008, where, as you might guess, he struggled a bit. Since then he has been rediscovered, first as an OC and then as the head coach of the NFL Redskins, where he won two division titles. Gruden is another offensive-minded coach, though his style is more inventive than Landry’s, often focused on spread formations and quick passes, not unlike the old Run & Shoot, but with more use of a tight end. Seen as a player’s coach, he is unlikely to tighten up a team’s sloppy play, but he can get good growth from younger players.

Tom Coughlin (Former Ohio Glory HC)

Now, if discipline is what you want, there is no one more focused on keeping a tight ship than Tom Coughlin. Both in Baltimore and Ohio he was known for a well-structured defense, a conservative offense that focused on ball control and play action, and a team where players knew what their roles were. If you have a club that has gotten sloppy and unfocused, but has talent, particularly on the two lines, well Coughlin may well be a good match.

Brian Schottenheimer (Memphis OC)

The son of former USFL and NFL head coach Marty Schottenheimer, Brian has made a name for himself as the king of the balanced attack. Memphis’s rise to prominence in the South over the past 2 years is as good a testament to that as anything. Schottenheimer believes in the run game, evident in Memphis’s ranking as the top rushing team in the league this year. We are not sure what kind of defense he would implement, but on offense it will be one that emphasizes run-pass balance.

Sam Mills III (Michigan DC)

Son of legendary USFL linebacker Sam Mills, the Michigan DC has risen quickly up the ranks as a coach after a short playing career in the NFL. He returned to the USFL with the Panthers and we have seen the result as Michigan has not only become one of the best defensive teams in the league, but also one of the hardest hitting. Mills will not reinvent defensive schemes, but what he does extremely well is create a simple scheme that is very effective because players know their roles and because they are motivated to make plays and play as a team. Swarming to the ball and using pressure effectively in key moments are Mills’s calling cards on defense. What he would look for in an OC and an offensive philosophy would likely rely on the same concepts, a simpler plan well-orchestrated and with players who know their roles well.

 

Five NFL Players Who May Be Hoping to Jump to Spring in 2021

Our second list for this week focuses on current NFL players who may be primed to switch leagues come February. These are all players who are either on one-year “prove yourself” deals, or who are primed for a move, either due to conflicts with current coaching, a break-out year that will demand a big pay raise, or simply an awkward fit with their current team. Now, of course, the odds are that many players who enter free agency with the NFL will stay in the fall, but with the USFL-NFL Transfer Window opening almost immediately after the NFL postseason, the USFL will be in position to snag a few talented players, as they often do in February. So, here are five players we know USFL GM’s are talking about.

QB Jameis Winston (Saints)

Winston showed two things in his time with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that he can sling the ball, putting up big yardage, but also that he has a bit of a tendency to be too careless with the ball, producing too many interceptions. If you are a coach who believes that with maturity and good coaching you can maximize the positive and minimize the bad decisions, then the arm talent is there and could be a big add for a team needing a QB. His 1-year deal with New Orleans is something of a wait-and-see situation, but by February we will know if Winston has found success and will be pushing for a multi-year deal.

QB Gardner Minshew (Jaguars)

If ever there was an NFL quarterback who showed immediate USFL potential, it is Minshew. Not much was expected from the 6^th round pick of the NFL Jaguars, but when forced into action in 2019, what we got was a gunslinger who played with passion and showed he could make plays. His persona (complete with flowing mullet) and style of play feel much more at home in the USFL than in the more rigid and conservative NFL, and with the Jaguars still seeing him as a backup and not a regular starter, despite his success, we think he makes the jump if given a chance this February.

HB Chris Carson (Seahawks)

The Oklahoma State product started slowly after joining the NFL Seahawks, but came on in his 2^nd year, putting up 1,151 yards in 2018 and over 1,200 last season. He will be in a contract year after this season, and if he can again have a strong season, we think Carson will go into the market looking for a strong 2^nd contract. With several USFL teams trying to upgrade their run game, we think Carson would be a target for a league swap and a nice setup in the spring.

OT Trent Williams (Redskins)

Williams is an interesting case. He has spent his entire career with the NFL Redskins, but now seems ready to move on as the club shifts coaches again. A consensus All-American back in 2009 and a 3-time Pro-Bowler in the NFL, Williams is in a contract year and almost certainly is open to any deal that gives him a chance to finish his career on a potential contender, with a nice pay bump included, of course.

DE J. J. Watt (Texans)

Injuries in recent years will likely diminish Watt’s negotiating power as his contract with the Texans expires this year. They will also be a concern for any USFL team hoping to make a move to land the once-dominant D-lineman. After racking up nearly 70 sacks in his first 5 seasons, Watt has missed a lot of games in the latter half of his current career, playing in only 3 games in 2015, 5 in 2017, and 8 last year, but, sandwiched in there was a 2018 season that saw him healthy for all 16 weeks and in which he racked up 14 sacks, so the talent is still very much still evident. And landing a talented edge rusher, even one who may miss a lot of games, is still a pretty tempting opportunity.

Five Breakout Stars from 2020 Who Deserve a Pay Day

The 2020 USFL season saw more than its share of strong performances, including several players who stepped up their game and became stories this year. These breakout players are poised to move into a new tax bracket, demanding a new deal or an extension that recognizes their 2020 success and the potential for continued quality in the future.

QB Brett Hundley (SEA)

Hundley signed with Seattle in 2019 after a pair of rough seasons in New Jersey that saw him dip from 15 starts to 8 in 2017 and being relegated to a backup role in 2018. What he showed this year is that he has the talent to start and to be a winner in the USFL, and that will demand a contract that befits a starter who took his team to the playoffs. A lot will depend on what Seattle decides to do with Jacoby Brissett. If they keep the oft-injured Brissett, then the money will be tighter, but if they find a taker for the QB, then Hundley likely gets himself a nice deal for 2021 and beyond.

HB Kerwyn Williams (NE)

Williams had only 1 year left on his contract with Baltimore when the Steamrollers tabbed him in the expansion draft. He used his final year and his shift to New England about as well as a player could, jumping from 310 yards in 2018 to 934 with the expansion Steamrollers. While not a true bell-cow back (he does best when he is limited to 15-20 carries per game), Williams is still a very capable back, one who has never averaged fewer than 4 yards per carry. Expect him to seek a deal that recognizes his potential to be the primary back in a 2-back system, rather than a backup.

WR Devin Funchess (MEM)

No player had a better 2020 than Devin Funchess. In Brian Schottenheimer’s offense, and with Paxton Lynch playing the best ball of his career, Funchess emerged from behind Robert Woods to become the preferred target for Lynch and a dangerous weapon for the Showboats. In his 2^nd year he jumped from a solid 635-yard, 4-TD season as a rookie to a spectacular 1,547-yard, 10-TD season as a sophomore. He still has 2 more years on his rookie deal, but we think his agent will be making calls to the Showboat front office to make sure he gets his deal restructured well before the 2023 offseason.

DE Connor Barwin (DAL)

After coming over from Chicago in a deal back in 2017, Barwin has been very solid for the Roughnecks, racking up 12, 8, and 10 sacks his first 3 years in Big D. This year, however, he bumped up his game, as did the Roughnecks as a team, landing 18 sacks to place himself among the league leaders. Now, part of that may be the newfound success of the Roughneck offense, forcing more teams to go to the pass early as they played catchup, but regardless of the reasons, any player who is closing in on 20 sacks per year is going to be looking for a deal that recognizes his game.

LB Uchena Nwosu (LA)

The breakout star of LA’s dominant defense this year. Nwosu had himself a stellar 3^rd year in the league. While he started 10 games last season, this year he became a true leader on the Express, racking up 85 tackles, 9 sacks, and a lot of big plays, the kind of plays that define a player as a “key” to a team’s success. With that status we expect him to get a payday, especially if the Express value defensive playmaking. Nwosu is likely to be voted a team captain in 2021, and with the Express still leaning so heavily on their defense, that will produce some pressure to pay him or risk losing him when his contract expires at the end of the 2021 season.

Conference Championship Weekend gives us two very different games. In the East we have a 6-seed that has perhaps more experience than any club in the conference winning big games going into a matchup with a 1-seed who have looked as dominant as anyone this season. The Bandits are an offensive juggernaut, but Houston has shown over several years that they can also put up points in a hurry, so this one could devolve into a shootout where the final possession is likely the key one.

In the West, it is a very different story. Michigan lives to play tough defense and run the ball. Arizona, once a high-flying offense with David Carr at the helm, is now forced to shorten games, use their own run game to grind out drives, and lean a lot more on their defense. Of course, the Wranglers have the game’s premier defensive player on their side in Calais Campbell, but he is going to be under a lot of pressure to shut down Michigan when they are in passing situations. Michigan hopes to use the run game to avoid those one-dimensional plays, and they have the player to do it in 4-time league rushing champion LeVeon Bell. Expect this one to be a lot lower scoring than in the East, and while it may also come down to the 4^th quarter, we think it will be more about who can create takeaways and maximize opportunities to play on a short field.

2-Arizona Wranglers (12-4) @ 1-Michigan Panthers (14-2)

Sunday, Sept. 27 @ 3pm ET

NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Michigan -8

6-Houston Gamblers (10-6) @ 1-Tampa Bay Bandits (15-1)

Sunday, Sept. 27 @ 8pm ET

Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL

Tampa Bay -7