2021 USFL Divisional Playoff Recap

Eight teams entered the weekend with Summer Bowl dreams, and 4 leave it with the Summer Bowl still in reach and their club one step closer. The divisional round produced only 1 upset, with both 1 seeds advancing and only Birmingham dropping their home game. We will recap the 4 divisional games, preview next week’s Conference Championships with Orlando headed just down the road to face Tampa Bay and Denver traveling up to Seattle to face the Dragons. We also have our first two coaching hires, our Big Story for the week, and we have a look at one 2021 playoff team that is going to have to start rebuilding as 3 team members announce their retirement within the past few days. All this, plus a look at 10 players who may just find themselves on the wrong side of the salary cap this offseason. It’s all right here in our Divisional Round Recap edition.

Harbaugh Heading to Stags

The Portland Stags saw what they wanted to see and heard what they wanted to hear in their interview with former Philadelphia Stars’ head coach Jim Harbaugh. Within 24 hours of the coach’s visit to the Rose City an offer was made, and yesterday the Stags held a short press conference to welcome their new head coach. Harbaugh, who had also met with the Monarchs and Bulls, signed up to move his family across the country from their Philadelphia home, setting up shop in the PNW and getting ready to start fresh with the Stags after a year away from coaching. 

Coach Harbaugh better invest in some rain gear for his new gig.

Harbaugh inherits a team that has some decisions to make. Among the top issues in Portland is the future of Marcus Mariota, the team’s starter at QB since 6 years. Mariota has had some strong seasons and some troubling ones, not to mention the injury issues that cost him games every year since 2017. The Stags also have some spots to fill this offseason, including 2 tackle spots, at corner, defensive tackle, and kicker. All this plus a desire to both upgrade the run game, the pass rush, and the LB group. Harbaugh, who took the Stars to two Summer Bowls and regular playoff appearances is certainly no stranger to roster turnover or to rebuilding. With Portland he inherits a team that was seen as a potential up-and-comer after turning a 4-12 season in 2019 into a 9-7 campaign in 2020, only to fall flat this year, finishing 5-10-1 and costing Brian LaFleur his position. 

Coach Cotrell moves to the big chair.

And while Portland’s hire takes one of the bigger names off the coaching prospect board, it was not the only hire this week. Houston, just one week after being knocked out of the Wild Card run, made it official that they will hire from within, with Defensive Coordinator Ted Cotrell taking the helm while OC Zach Taylor remains in his position as the mastermind behind Houston’s explosive attack. News of Cotrell’s hire leaked from Houston this week, as the team planned to make an announcement after the Summer Bowl, part of a celebration of Wade Phillips’s outstanding career as the leader of the Gamblers. The party will still happen, but the surprise is now no surprise at all.

The official announcement of Harbaugh’s hire and the leak regarding Ted Cotrell means that there are now 3 positions left to be filled, all with teams that are facing major overhauls: Charlotte, Jacksonville, and San Diego. Many see the Bulls’ position as the most desirable if for no other reason than the new coach will have 2020 rookie QB Trevor Lawrence to build around, while both Charlotte and San Diego have major questions at the quarterback position. Expect all three teams to continue to interview candidates, but also to look very closely at the coaching staffs of the 4 teams left in contention in the playoffs, as they likely each have at least one coordinator who might be primed for a head coaching position.

NEW JERSEY GENERALS 23  TAMPA BAY BANDITS 24

There are two types of people who are really ecstatic about the Bandits’ 1-point victory over New Jersey this week, folks who like a last second win, and folks who like to bet the underdog. In a game that was far closer than most expected, and one in which the Generals shockingly had a 23-6 lead midway through the 3^rd quarter, Tampa Bay stormed back late, scoring the final 18 points in a flurry of late heroics that ended with a 33-yard field goal from Harrison Butker with only 10 ticks left on the clock. For fans of late game comebacks and those who bet on a close game, this was one for the record books.

New Jersey had some huge performances, particularly in a first half that they dominated. Tony Pollard and Delone Carter combined for 29 carries and 143 yards, with Pollard extending the Generals’ 16-6 halftime lead by another 7 on the Generals’ first drive of the second half. But something happened after that drive. Tampa Bay, who had been rusty, careless, and uncharacteristically inefficient, suddenly found their groove. And it wasn’t just the offense, as the Bandit defense picked up both of their takeaways in the game’s final 18 minutes. So, how did it happen?

Let’s start with New Jersey’s first half success. The Generals not only held the Bandits to a pair of Butker field goals, but their offense ate up over 17 minutes of the first half, with Carter and Pollard finding success on the ground and setting up Nick Foles for some pretty easy throws from a solid protective pocket. Included in the easy throw category was a 56-yard completion to Muhamed Sanu, a play made possible by Tampa Bay’s overreaction to the run fake. Sanu, who would finish with only 2 receptions, but an average of 60.5 between them, was in single coverage and Foles had all the time in the world for him to get open. The score took the Generals’ advantage from 6 points to 13.

On the first drive of the second half, Sanu would catch his 2^nd pass, a 65-yarder on an almost identical fly route. That play did not go for 6, but only 3 plays later Pollard broke a tackle at the 7 and rumbled into the endzone, shocking the Bandit crowd of 59,721 as the Generals took a 17-point lead. But it would be the last great moment for the Generals, who started fraying just as Tampa Bay started to build confidence. It started when Tony Pollard took a swing pass, rumbled around the edge, but lost control of the ball. De Brian Burns was Johnny on the spot, falling on the ball at the New Jersey 22 and giving Tampa Bay the spark they needed to mount a comeback. Only 2 plays later Dak Prescott finally connected on a big play to one of his outside receivers, in this case Ryan Grant, and 17-yards later the Bandits’ gap was 11 (a missed PAT kept it from being 10)

The Bandits’ D started to assert themselves in the 4^th quarter, first with a sack to end a New Jersey drive, then with a pick of Nick Foles that again gave the Bandits a short field. On their first drive of the quarter, Butker connected to bring the gap to 8. After the Jalen Ramsey pick, the Bandits did one better, with Prescott finding Dez Bryant for a 43-yard play that put the ball inside the New Jersey 5. 2 plays later Dalvin Cook lept over the pile and Tampa Bay was only a 2-point conversion from a tie game. The Bandits failed on the attempt and with 5:34 left to play New Jersey was a good 4-minute drill away from a shocking upset.

The problem was that New Jersey, who had found success on the ground all game, could not find it when it mattered most, with Tampa Bay forcing a 3-and-out after only 73 seconds had melted from the clock. They would get the ball back on their own 27 with 4:21 left to play. Dak Prescott and the Bandit offense went to work, no urgency, just consistent positive plays in what would become a 12-play drive that got the ball as far as the New Jersey 16. With time running down. Prescott would spike the ball on 1^st and 10, then take a knee right behind the center to set up Butker with a straight kick down the center of the field. With 10 seconds left, the Bandits took their final timeout and sent their kicker in to pull victory from the Generals’ clutches. Coach Saleh used his last timeout to ice Butker, but, as we so often see, it proved fruitless, as the Bandit kicker easily split the uprights.

From down 17 to a 1-point victory, from a shocking one-and-done exit to a return next week in the Conference Title Game, the Bandits turned lead into gold, while New Jersey, shellshocked and disheartened, headed home on the longest Florida return flight to Newark in the history of Jet Blue.

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CHICAGO MACHINE 27  DENVER GOLD 37

In what was beginning to look like a weekend of 4^th quarter comebacks, the Denver Gold put up 27 of their 37 points in the final period, turning a 10-point deficit into a 10-point win with 4 consecutive TD drives in the span of only 7:32. Once again, turnovers were the key, that and late game weakening of one of the league’s best defenses.

Chicago, like New Jersey, had played very solid football for 3 quarters, but they wore down as the Gold kicked into high gear in the final 10 minutes. To their credit, Denver fans never really quieted down, even after the Machine put up the game’s first 17 points, with Sam Bradford connecting with TE Tyler Eifert in the first quarter and then doubling the Machine advantage midway through the 2^nd with a short TD toss to Chase Claypool. By the time the game reached the half, it was Chicago up 17-0 and Denver fans both troubled and eager to see a very different Gold team in the 2^nd half.

They got their wish as Denver, who took the 2^nd half kickoff, went to work right away. Their big adjustment from the first to the second half was a decision to run far fewer spread formation plays and far more 2-TE formations, using a combination of max protect and 2-3 receiver routes to keep Josh Allen in the pocket and the Machine pass rush off him. Allen, who had been sacked 6 times in the first half, would go to the turf only once in the second. On his first drive of the half, he would connect with 4 different receivers, including a 28-yard catch and run on 3^rd and 11 that clearly deflated the Chicago defense. When Allen found Golden Tate from the 9 for Denver’s first points of the game, you could feel the energy come back to Empower Field. 17-7 felt a lot different from 17-0.

Chicago would respond on their next possession with a field goal, but something had definitely changed. Allen, who had been held to only 5 of 11 in the first half, and only 81 yards, would put up 237 yards on 14 of 16 in the second half, in a display of momentum shift like few we have seen this year. Down 20-10 as the 4^th quarter started, following a Greg Zeurlein field goal, Allen found Darnell Mooney on a perfectly executed slant & go route. The play covered 41 yards and pulled the Gold within 4 (another missed PAT. Why?). That would be the first of 4 consecutive TD drives in the quarter.

The second came only 2 minutes later after FS Camryn Bynum had the first of two 4^th quarter picks. The first was a ball tipped up in the air by Chicago receiver Michael Floyd, a classic tip drill ball that Bynum caught and returned to the Chicago 17. Five quick plays later, Phillip Lindsay followed the left guard into the endzone from the 1 and Denver was up 23-20. Chicago seemed shell-shocked, and after a drive of only 6 plays, they were forced to punt the ball back to Denver. The Gold were now in rhythm, with Allen gaining 44 yards on only 2 completions before Phillip LindsHocay caught the Machine in a pass rush, the delayed handoff leading to a wide-open hole in the line and a 20-yard scamper for another Gold TD. They now led by 10 themselves, up 30-20 with only 3:03 to play.

Desperate to get back in the game, Chicago had to take risks, and one of those risks was a throw by Bradford into double coverage. With corner Artie Burns staying underneath, with Bynum behind him, Bradford forced the ball to Floyd again, and this time Bynum did not wait for a tip, he undercut the route and stole the ball away before diving out of bounds at the Chicago 44. Once again Denver was in position with a short field. It would take them less than a minute to score, this time David Wilson running the ball in from the 3, and now, down 17, Chicago knew that the cause was lost. They would add a late score in the final minute to create a 10-point deficit, but with the onside kick finding Denver TE T. J. Hockenson, the game was now officially out of reach. Denver had looked unprepared in the first half, but came on strong after the break, outpacing the Machine 37-10 over the final 30 minutes. The Central Division champs were out, and the Southwest Champs were headed to the Conference finals, but would it be a home game against the veteran Wranglers, or a road trip to 1-seed Seattle?

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ORLANDO RENEGADES 16  BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS 13

Orlando came into their game in Birmingham quite a bit banged up, with David Njoku joining DT Ego Ferguson, safety Richie Grant and guard Amini Silatulo on the list of missing players for the game. They would find themselves even more shorthanded only 8 minutes into the game, when their deep threat, Brashad Perriman, had to leave the game after his 2^nd catch. The 7-year vet landed hard after bringing in a high pass from Wilson. He held on, but was immediately taken into the locker room. The verdict would be a dislocated shoulder with a possible chip of the joint now floating free. In other words, Perriman, who had 10 receptions for 139 yards in Orlando’s Wild Card victory, would be done for the remainder of the playoffs.

Orlando was down their top 2 receivers, a combo that had racked up 257 targets, 168 receptions, 2,166 yards and 14 touchdowns in the regular season. Their offense would have to lean more heavily on the run game, the defense, and a receiver group now led by Hunter Renfrew, Nelson Agholor, and tight ends Chris Herndon and Crockett Gilmore. Not exactly a Murderer’s Row of a receiver group. Yes, Orlando led 6-0 after the first quarter, a pair of Mason Crosby field goals the only points, but the Birmingham fans had to feel good about their chances. Cam Newton had returned for the start, and while he went 3 for 8 in the opening quarter, he certainly would heat up as the game moved along.

Newton did heat up a touch early in the 2^nd, connecting with Devanta Smith for a 27-yard completion that would put the ball in Orlando territory and eventually lead to a Chris Boswell field goal to halve Orlando’s advantage. But in an omen of things to come, Newton was sacked on the penultimate drive, caught trying to scramble by DE Arthur Moats. Moats, who would finish the game with 7 tackles, including 5 for a loss (3 being failed Newton run plays) impressed, but so did the league’s sack co-champion, Montez Sweat, who racked up 3 sacks and 5 tackles on the day. And it was not that Orlando was focusing on pressure. They rarely sent any blitzers, and their two DE’s were as involved in run coverage as pass rush. The issue was that Newton looked indecisive all game, like the time away with injury had wiped out some of his instincts. He opted to run too late into plays, he opted to throw into coverage when other receivers had found gaps in the Orlando zone. It was just not a good game.

Newton would finish the game with a very uncharacteristic stat line of 47.2% completion rate (17 of 36), a TD, a pick, and 6 sacks. Meanwhile, even with his top two pass catchers out of action by the 5-minute mark of the first quarter, Russell Wilson also played uncharacteristically. He completed 23 of 34 passes, one of his best results all year. Yes, he threw a pick, but it was a late throw in the half that was almost a punt by default.

Both Orlando and the Stallions would add another field goal to a game that had yet to see any endzone forays by the half. Down 9-6, Birmingham was certainly still in the game, but they would need to find their offense sooner rather than later. With a run game that produced only 40 total yards in the game (including 7 rushes for -3 yards by Newton), that offense never arrived. Orlando hardly blew the doors off the game, but when Russell Wilson found Nelson Agholor for a 3-yard TD late in the third quarter, it gave the visitors a 10-point advantage against a Stallion squad that simply was not in synch on offense.

Birmingham would finally find the endzone in the 4^th quarter, but they did so with 49 seconds left to play, newton finally making a play, but far too late. The Stallions attempted the onside kick, failed to recover the ball, and were forced to watch as Russell Wilson ended their playoff hopes with a pair of kneel downs. Orlando had hardly been impressive on offense and were certainly limping into a showdown with in-state rival Tampa Bay, but they had proven effective in pressuring Newton, containing him, and flustering the entire Birmingham offense despite blitzing only 4 times the entire game.

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ARIZONA WRANGLERS 16  SEATTLE DRAGONS 42

The final game of the week was really the only game we would call completely one-sided, and that is not something anyone expected with a veteran squad like Arizona facing the Dragons. Arizona started strong, putting the first 6 points on the board, but when Brett Hundley found Kendrick Bourne for 6 early in the 2^nd quarter, Arizona’s early success started to fade. Despite the Wrangler defense containing Knowshon Moreno, with the league’s rushing king held to only 67 yards, they could not contain him when it mattered most. Moreno ripped a 12-yard TD run just before the 2-minute warning, giving Seattle a 14-6 lead at the half. He would add 2 more touchdowns in the 2^nd half as Seattle went from 14-6 to 42-9 by the midway point of the 4^th quarter.

They did it with solid defense, including a huge play from potential DPOTY Khalil Mack, a 51-yard pick-six that all but ended the game with Seattle up 35-9. They also did it with consistent, balanced offense against a pretty well-respected Wrangler D. The numbers were not huge, with Brett Hundley going 17 of 25 for only 207 yards and no Seattle receiver topping Marshall Newhouse’s 85 yards on the day, but they just kept drives alive and kept adding points to the scoreboard until Arizona’s hopes were simply too far gone to be of concern.

This was one of those games where most of the stats don’t tell us the story. Seattle only outgained Arizona by 40 yards, were marginally better on 3^rd down, had only 1 fewer penalty than the Wranglers, and lost the time of possession race 34:20 to 25:40, and yet, when they had the ball, they found ways to add points to the scoreboard, while Arizona did not. The final result was a resounding win for the Dragons, who now will prepare for their final home game of the year, a Western Championship against the SW Division Champs, the Denver Gold.

Seattle & Orlando Lose Key Playmakers Ahead of Conference Title Games

The Dragons and Renegades are moving on to their respective Conference Title Games, but not every member of the team will be there this weekend as both teams suffered a considerable loss at the wide receiver position, an injury that could impact their ability to advance to Summer Bowl 2021. Orlando will be without their top 2 receivers as WR Brashad Perriman joins TE David Njoku on the injury list. In Seattle, Amari Cooper is doubtful after suffering a hamstring injury in this week’s win over Arizona. 

For Orlando, the loss of Perriman one week after David Njoku was lost for the entire playoffs is a major concern. The Renegades lose over 160 receptions and two essential pieces of their offense. This will certainly impact the way Coach Rivera approaches a very tough matchup against the high-powered offense of the Tampa Bay Bandits. Even at full strength Orlando dropped both regular season games against their in-state rivals, losing 38-9 in Week 4, and then falling 24-13 in Week 11. Now, without his club’s top two receivers, the strategy has to become one focused on shortening the game, centering the run game of Chris Carson, and leaning heavily on the defense to contain the Bandits, pressure Dak Prescott, and avoid giving up quick strikes.

For Seattle, the news is slightly better. Amari Cooper’s hamstring issue is a strain, not a tear, and while he is listed as doubtful this week, there is hope that if the Dragons can knock off Denver at Lumen Field, they could see Cooper back in action for Summer Bowl 2021. This week, the most likely set up for Coach Riley is that Kendrick Bourne slides out from the slot to take over Cooper’s spot opposite Marshall Newhouse, with both Frank McClintock and Nick Westbrook stepping in on the inside when the Dragons go to 3-receiver sets. The other clear option, and one we expect to see quite often, is for Seattle to switch their use of 3-receiver sets to more 2-tight end formations. While there is a pretty big drop off from 1,000-yard receiver Kyle Rudolph to TE2 Charlie Worner, having Worner in as extra protection for Brett Hundley would allow Rudolph to become a factor over the middle. At least that is the thinking among the Seattle optimists.

Stallion Nation Second Guessing Haley's Decision

Color us not surprised at all, but the banter all across Stallion Nation, online, on talk radio, on the EFN talking head shows, has been about Coach Haley sticking with Cam Newton during Birmingham's tough Divisional Round loss to Orlando. On the surface it seems absurd, after all Newton was an MVP candidate until injury took him out of the final 6 weeks of the season. He is a deadly combination of size, strength, escapability, and a rocket arm, but he was clearly rusty after nearly 2 months away from the game. Maybe he was not truly back to 100% or maybe he just was not in synch with the rest of the team. But, whatever the reason, the Stallions did not get Newton at his best, and with a backup ready to go, and one who led the Bandits to 4 consecutive wins to lock up the Division title and a Wild Card bye, it starts to make sense why there is now so much questioning of Haley's choice.

Tim Tebow came in for Newton in Week 12 and surprised many with his game. He was not as prolific as Newton, but he certainly made his share of plays as the Stallions defeated foe after foe on their way to the playoffs. In 6 starts, Tebow threw for 10 TDs and no picks, and helped the Stallions go 3-0 against division foes Memphis, New Orleans and San Antonio to clinch the division. But ask anyone prior to this week's game and we don't think you would find many who believed that keeping Tebow under center if a healthy Cam Newton was back to 100% was the way to go. This is a classic case of Monday morning quarterbacking. It is easy to say that Tebow would have put up better numbers than Newton's 17 of 36 with 1 TD and 1 pick, but maybe we should just respect Orlando's defensive effort and gameplan and say that Tim Tebow likely would have had the same fate as Newton. It's a hard pill to swallow for Stallion fans, but maybe lay off of the coach who just got you your first Division title in over 20 years.

Carr Mum on Whether This Week’s Loss Will Be His Final Game

With Arizona’s exit from the 2021 post-season, the questions for David Carr about his future have begun in earnest. Wrangler Nation was antsy about Carr after his season ending injury in 2020, but the 2-Time MVP returned with a very solid season in 2021, though it was one that saw him leave several games with the kind of injuries we so often see from players in the latter years of long careers.

Carr started 14 games this year, which is certainly not bad for a QB who will turn 38 in the offseason. However, in 4 of those games, he had to take a seat on the bench and let Brock Osweiler finish out the game. Those nagging and lingering injuries are one reason why many in the Wranglers’ sphere are questioning Carr on his 2022 intentions. When you add to that the fact that the Wranglers appear to be a team whose championship window may be closing, a window that has produced 3 titles and 5 trips to the Summer Bowl, and the possibility that Carr will step away from the game seems even more likely. After all, this was the first year in almost a decade when the Wranglers did not win their division, and their exit at the hands of Seattle this week may well be a sign that the team needs to retool for the future. Will that be a factor in Carr’s thinking? Will the bruises and physical toll of a 13^th USFL season be the bigger factor? We won’t know until Carr answers questions about 2022, and as of right now, he is not open to doing so.

Bandits Open as 14-Point Favorite in Las Vegas

With Orlando down two major offensive weapons, and with Tampa Bay looking very much like the team that captured a title last year, the gambling world is very much looking like they feel the Eastern Finals will be a coronation, not a competition. The sports books in Las Vegas, as well as the online gambling sites, have all more or less agreed that the Eastern Conference Finals will not only be a Bandit win, but an impressive one. The opening line is hovering between 14 and 15 points, which tells us that the money is heading Tampa’s way in large numbers and the books need to inflate the spread to try to encourage some wagering in favor of Orlando.

The disparity is certainly not unexpected. Tampa Bay defeated Orlando twice, by a combined 62-22 margin in the regular season, and now, without David Njoku or Brashad Perriman, it feels very much like the Renegades will need an immaculate defensive game to even stay in the park with the Bandits. Stranger things have happened, but rarely are the sports books this tilted towards one team only to have the other win outright. Cover the spread? Possibly. Win outright? It seems a tough hill to climb for a gutsy, but potentially overmatched Orlando club.

 

Chris Long Looking Like Shrewd Acquisition for Dragons

The 2021 season had its fair share of midseason deals, many of which did not produce huge results. From the 3-way deal that sent Eddie Lacy to Oklahoma, Pacman Jones to Birmingham, and Jameis Winston to New England, to the deal that made WR Justin Blackmon a Panther, there have been big name deals, but few big name results. The one clear exception to that trend is the deal that sent DE Chris Long from the Washington Federals to the Seattle Dragons.

Long, who came to Seattle with 8 sacks in 10 games, found immediate success in his new home. The 13-year veteran added 6 more sacks in his final 6 regular season games, not going a single week without one entered into the books. This week, against Arizona, he had his first multiple-sack game, with 2 sacks and a forced fumble against the Wranglers. He finished the season as the Dragons’ sack leader with 14 sacks, one more than All-USFL linebacker Khalil Mack. And we should also mention that Long’s presence helped Mack accelerate his sack haul, with the talented linebacker securing 7 of his 13 sacks after Long’s arrival for Week 12. He did not have a sack this week against Arizona, though we think his pick-six certainly makes up for that, but with Chris Long at DE, Seattle has seen a combined 13 sacks from their top two producers in just a 6-week span, and now, in the postseason, they are cashing in on the investment they made on a player who may well be using the 2021 playoff run as his final act in the USFL.

Two games, both impacted by injuries. We have already outlined the impact of the Njoku and Perriman injuries for the Renegades, but we should also note that Tampa Bay will be without center Frank Ragnow, something Coach Rivera and the Renegades will almost certainly try to exploit with inside pressure. Expect some stunts and loops from Montez Sweat as the Renegades try to pressure Dak Prescott and contain Dalvin Cook.

In the Western Final, the absence of Amari Cooper will certainly be an issue for Seattle. They were already dealing with the absence of their slot specialist, John Brown, and now find themselves without their deep ball specialist. It seems safe to say that Marshall Newhouse and Kyle Rudolph will need to step up against Denver if the Dragons hope to return to the Summer Bowl.

ORL: TE D. Njoku (IR), DT E. Ferguson (IR), SS R. Grant (IR), WR B. Perriman (Out)

TBY:  DT K. Short (Out), C F. Ragnow (D)

DEN: FB W. Nelson (Out), HB J. Ward (P)

SEA:  WR J. Brown (IR), T E. Fisher (Out), WR A. Cooper (D), DE D. Hall (Q)

Ohio Loses 3 Playmakers to Retirement in 1 Week

It is the ebb and flow of pro football. One week you have everything working for you, like Week 17 when the Glory went into New Jersey, got the win and punched their playoff ticket. The next, it all goes south, first losing in the Wild Card round to rival Chicago and then getting a quick succession of retirement announcements sure to impact the offseason. While not totally unexpected, the impact of Ohio losing safety LaRon Landry, CB Syd’Quan Thompson, and G Brandon Brooks all within the span of 3 days has to shake things up. With several other significant contributors like DE Robert Quinn and HB Isaiah Pead about to enter free agency, the reality for the Glory is clear, their 2022 roster could look very different from their 2021 edition.

That said, the good news is that Ohio has a solid core still very much in place, including potential Rookie of the Year Justin Fields at QB, Terry McLaurin leading an improving receiver group, and two outspoken leaders on defense in LB Ryan Shazier and SS Tyran Matthieu. It also does not hurt that the Glory have one of the best options in all of the USFL when it comes to their Territorial Draft, with Ohio State regularly cranking out topflight talent. In this year’s draft alone, Ohio will have some big time players to choose from, including two All Big-10 receivers in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, and a beast of a tackle in Nicholas Petit-Frere, and that is not even taking into account that perhaps the best corner in the draft, Cincinnati’s Sauce Gardner, is also within Ohio’s protected pool of players. So, don’t cry for them, Argentina. The Glory could well be ready to reload and get right back into the fight in 2022.

Charlotte Not Waiting, Approaches Steamrollers & Vipers about QB Options

We will say this for the 1-15 Charlotte Monarchs, they are not taking a slow route to rebuilding. They may not have found their next head coach yet, but they are already hot on the trail to fixing one of their most glaring issues, the lack of a quality starter at the QB position. Looking at QB competitions across the league, the Monarchs have already reached out to both the Las Vegas Vipers and the New England Steamrollers, trying to get a bead on whether either team might be in a mood to trade away one of their QB contenders and avoid a February competition.

The Vipers were pretty settled at QB with Matt McGloin, but an injury midseason gave NFL import Gardner Minshew a chance to show his stuff, and he raised a few eyebrows with some nice performances, throwing for 353 against Oakland and putting up 299 yards and 4 touchdowns in a season finale against Dallas. Minshew finished the year with an 84.4 QB Rating and a 13:10 touchdown/interception ratio, both slightly better than McGloin’s pre-injury numbers. Would the Vipers be open to a deal on Minshew, or are they perhaps more prone to deal the older QB with 2 fewer years on his deal, Matt McGloin?

For New England it is also a question of two quarterbacks who could be solid but who have not been able to lock up the starting position. New England made a mid-year deal to bring Jameis Winston over from Birmingham, a sign that they are not satisfied with the 2-year results from another NFL import, Ryan Tannehill. The Steamrollers gave Winston the final few starts, but with 6 picks and only 1 TD, Winston’s final numbers were not impressive. He finished the year with a 50.3 QB Rating, well below Tannehill’s 79.5. And yet, we have seen what Winston can do during his time in the NFL, and perhaps Charlotte is willing to take the risk. In a year where there is not projected to be a clear cut 1^st round talent among the QBs in the 2022 draft, perhaps taking a shot at an NFL import who needs a new start is the path forward for the Monarchs.

Ten Potential Cap Cuts Ahead of Free Agency

When the offseason rolls around, we tend to focus on two roster-impacting realities, the wave of retirements that we tend to see each fall, and the players opting to test the free agency waters instead of extending or agreeing to a new deal with their current teams. And we certainly will be exploring both this year, but we should also look at a third type of roster movement, the salary cap casualty. We have several teams this year who could struggle to get under the cap. Yes, they will certainly all work to restructure some deals, move money around or kick the can down the road, but it is certainly possible that we will also see some players who are just too expensive for their teams to keep, and that could mean some pre-free agency cuts in the next few weeks, helping teams avoid balloon payments, guaranteed pay outs, and cap holes that would make new player acquisition tough. So, who could be a victim of the cap? Here are 10 names we are watching very closely.

DT Jason Hargrave (ARZ)

The 6-year vet is a solid player, but his contract is back-heavy and that makes him an expensive player at his position on a team that could be looking for a new QB.

TE Hunter Henry (BIR)

Henry is a very solid contributor, but not a superstar at the position, not yet at least. His salary makes him Top 5 at the position, but with 4 more years on the deal, he is not likely to agree to a restructuring, so will that cost him the position altogether?

QB Ryan Nassib (WSH)

This one should be pretty obvious. Washington overpaid to win the “Nassib Derby” after the QB put up huge numbers in his one season leading Arizona. He came to Washington, could not repeat the output from the Wranglers, and lost his job to former Dragon Jacoby Brissett early in 2021. The Feds would love to find a trading partner for Nassib (Maybe back to Arizona), but if not, they may well just cut the rest of his contract loose to free up more space for other needs.

DT Star Lotuleilei (DAL)

Once perhaps the best player on the Roughneck roster, Lotuleilei is now 30, and his production has not kept pace with his seniority. Lotuleilei had only 36 tackles in 2020, and only 4 for a loss. With a deal like his, those numbers need to be a lot higher. With Dallas already underwater on their cap thanks to the deals cut with QB Justin Herbert, OT Tytus Howard, and WR Courtland Sutton, the Roughnecks may cut their early-year star Lotuleilei loose with 1 year left on his deal.

FS Calvin Murray (MEM)

If I asked you who the most expensive player on the Showboats was, you might think it had to be HB Todd Gurley or DE J. J. Watt. You almost certainly would not jump to safety Calvin Pryor. Kudos to Pryor’s agent who got him a very nice progressive deal with a lot of backloaded payout, but that final year deal in 2022-2023 could well be the reason Memphis parts ways with the safety.

TE Dennis Pitta (NE)

Pitta made a name for himself in Seattle, but the numbers have just not been sustained in New England. Yes, a lot of that is the Steamroller offense as a whole and QB issues as well, but we also are just not seeing Pitta making himself an unmissable target. With his salary for 2022 second only to All-USFL DT Aaron Donald, and with New England potentially looking to bolster the roster in several expensive positions, we could see them jettison Pitta just for the cap space.

WR Mike Williams (JAX)

A lot will depend on who the Bulls tap as their next head coach, but with the emergence of Tee Higgins as the clear primary receiver and with Williams producing solid, but hardly spectacular numbers as more of a possession receiver, the Bulls may be able to free up his sizable salary and find an equivalent talent and skill set in free agency at considerably less cap impact.

CB William Jackson III (OAK)

Let’s be blunt. Williams got himself a great deal out of college, but with only 2 picks in 5 USFL seasons, he is just not worth the money. Oakland is almost certainly looking to replace Jackson with a free agent or a rookie, and if they feel good about those prospects, they likely cut Jackson loose in time to avoid his bubble payment this October.

QB Kyler Murray (LA)

Perhaps the first surprise on our list. Yes, Murray was the undisputed starter at QB for the Express this year, as he has been since coming into the league 3 years ago. But with LA’s offense being a constant topic of derision and concern, and with Murray staring a career 75.5 QB rating in the face, would we really be shocked if LA cut him loose? It may make more sense to try to trade Murray to another QB-needy team, but will there be takers? And who will LA have available to add if they do send Murray off?

QB Andy Dalton (PIT)

This one has been rumored for a while now. Dalton had some very strong years, and he can still produce some great games, but the consistency is just not there, evident in the 4-game slump that cost the Maulers a shot at the playoffs this year. Dalton has only 1 year left on his deal with the Maulers, which may make him a quality trade candidate, and with Pitt QB Kenny Picket looking like perhaps the best option in a very thin draft class, we could see the Maulers either letting Dalton go cleanly, as a way to give him a say in where he ends up, or, perhaps more likely, cutting a deal with a Charlotte, San Diego, LA, or even Memphis to create the space to draft Pickett and still get some talent in free agency.

Two games on the schedule for this Conference Championship Weekend, both on Sunday so that neither winner has a day of extra rest before next week’s trip to Santa Clara and Summer Bowl 2021. So, who do you like? Are you ready to go out on a very thin limb and pick the Renegades to dethrone Tampa Bay? Are you picking Josh Allen’s arm over Knowshon Moreno’s legs in the West? Here is our breakdown, and, we hate to say it, but we may be playing it a little safe by predicting a battle of 1 seeds in the Summer Bowl, but we call them as we see them and that is what we see.

4-Orlando Renegades (11-5) @ 1-Tampa Bay Bandits (14-2)

Sunday, August 8 @ 2pm ET

Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Bandits -14

Not to downplay the season that the Orlando Renegades have put together, but they are looking a lot like the Rodney Dangerfields of the 2021 USFL playoffs: no respect, no respect at all. Admittedly, having lost their two top receivers over a span of 2 weeks has largely overshadowed the fact that they have defeated both the Houston Gamblers and Birmingham Stallions, making them the de facto champions of the USFL Southern Division. Those two wins have just not turned into a surge in confidence for the Renegades’ chances as they prepare to face the 2020 USFL Champions and 2021 Eastern Conference top seeds in Tampa Bay. As we reported above, the Bandits open as 2 touchdown favorites over their in-state rivals. The Bandits certainly present an imposing task, healthy, experienced, and supremely talented, but as we saw this week, they are not invulnerable. The New Jersey Generals nearly pulled out a major upset over the Bandits, losing by a single point after largely collapsing in the final 15 minutes. Could a motivated and undervalued Orlando defense cause Tampa Bay even more trouble and actually help the Renegades shock the USFL world?

OUR PICK: Let’s answer the question we just asked. No. We just don’t see it. Not without their top 2 targets. Not with the USFL leader in picks thrown as their QB. Not with all the weapons the Bandits bring to the table. We are going to say that the Renegades will find a way to cover the spread, but we just cannot help but place Tampa Bay right back in the Summer Bowl with a chance to equal the 2002-2003 Ohio Glory as the only teams to win back-to-back titles. We say it will be Bandits 28, Renegades 20.

2-Denver Gold (12-4) @ 1-Seattle Dragons (13-3)

Sunday, August 8 @ 6pm ET

Lumen Field, Seattle, WA

Dragons -4 ½

One win separates the Dragons and the Gold. Had Seattle taken it easy on the season’s final week, it very well could have been Denver hosting this game, and while the two did not meet this season, when we look at some common opponents (Dallas, Arizona, San Diego, Portland, Michigan, and St. Louis), we find two teams that look very similar. Against those opponents Seattle went 6-1 while Denver put up a 5-2 mark, so do we still have only 1 game of difference between them? What about stats? Well, Denver certainly has the edge in passing, with Josh Allen throwing for about 500 more yards and 12 more touchdowns, but in the run game it is all about Seattle, with Knowshon Moreno leading the league in rushing with nearly 1,400 yards, while Denver’s lead rusher, Phillip Lindsay did not crack 900. On defense Seattle has the edge in scoring, giving up 246 points to Denver’s 311. Seattle gave up only 300 fewer yards than the Gold, so they look pretty even there as well. Where there might be a huge differential is in takeaway margin, where Seattle is +16 while Denver is only +6.

OUR PICK: As much as we like what Josh Allen has done this year, Denver does not have the balance that we see in Seattle’s offense. He may well have to do something extraordinary to overcome the advantages the Dragons have with their run game, more aggressive defense, and big play makers like LB Khalil Mack, DE Chris Long, and CB Richard Sherman. We think Seattle contains Allen and grinds out a close one with Moreno and the D coming up big. Dragons 21, Gold 20.