2021 USFL Week 17 Recap: Stars Rise from 2-14 to NE Champs

For the first time in league history, the USFL went 17 weeks, and what a 17^th week it was. With 10 teams still fighting for only 4 playoff spots, with 2 division titles yet to be decided, and with Seattle hoping to lock up the 1 seed for the first time in team history, the additional week of USFL action, made necessary by the decision to add a bye week for each team, proved to be as exciting and as engaging as USFL executives could have hoped. We will break down all the results, their impact on the playoff picture, and a few farewells, some by choice, such as Tom Brady’s final USFL start, and some not chosen, such as the 4 Black Monday announcements that always signal the end of the regular season. All this and, of course, a look ahead to Wild Card weekend are on the way, starting with our run down of the playoff picture.

Playoffs Set After Wild Weekend.

It was a schedule designer’s dream, a final week of the USFL season with a schedule that ensured that the final playoff picture would be painted starting at noon on Saturday and not concluding until nearly midnight on Sunday night. Every timeslot built on the story, nearly every game having impact, but by the end of the Seattle-Oakland game on Sunday night we had our playoff roster. Here is how it developed over the weekend.

Let’s start with what was known. Tampa Bay and Birmingham had locked up the 1-2 slots in the East, so they would rest several starters and stay healthy for their playoff run to start 2 weeks later. Seattle had the 1 seed for now, but could not afford a loss or risk Denver snatching it away. New Jersey and Chicago would claim their division titles with a win, but both had contenders only 1 game back. Houston, Ohio, Philadelphia, and Arizona were one win away form securing a playoff berth, while Baltimore, Atlanta, Oakland, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and LA all had a chance to work their way into the postseason if they could get some help. So many permutations, so many combinations, but one way or the other the weekend would sort it out and we would have 12 teams headed on to the postseason.

Noon on Saturday, Baltimore got the win they needed to stay alive, holding off a very feisty St. Louis squad at M&T Bank Stadium to improve to 9-7. But they would now need to wait and see what happened in Philadelphia. A Stars’ win and Baltimore was out, a loss and they would be the 2^nd NE Division team in the playoffs. Atlanta had failed to get the win they needed. Facing a Bandits team that rested 10 of 22 starters, including MVP quarterback Dak Prescott, as well as stars Dalvin Cook and Dak Prescott, Atlanta looked like a team already eliminated, falling 44-3 to the Bandit backups in a humiliating final act of futility this season.

We move to the 4 pm Saturday timeslot. Arizona would be in the playoff pool with a win at home over the Birmingham Stallions. The Stallions, already locked into the 2^nd slot in the east at 11-4, had already decided to rest several stars, including WR Henry Ruggs and HB Najee Harris. The Wranglers took full advantage of Birmingham’s pseudo-bye, easily handling Birmingham 41-7 and locking up the 5^th playoff spot in the West. At the same time Denver was hoping to set themselves up with a bye week as either the 2 seed, or with a Seattle loss on Sunday night, as the 1 seed with full home field advantage. They faced San Antonio at Empower Field, and they too took care of business, cruising to a 31-17 win thanks to 4 Josh Allen touchdowns. They were assured no worse than the 2-seed and a bye but would have to wait and see if they had earned even more.

Finally, we had the LA Express, a team that needed to defeat Portland but also get help from New Jersey, Seattle, Las Vegas, and Michigan to have a shot at a very tenuous Wild Card at 8-8. The problem was that Portland was in no mood to comply. The Stags put up a late field goal to send the game to overtime, with LA missing a kick at regulation that would have won it for them. In the added time, both teams failed on field goal attempts, producing an 18-18 tie that might have made Portland fans chuckle, but absolutely ended any slim hopes LA had for a return to the playoffs.

Saturday night would lock up one more spot, with Houston defeating Oklahoma to claim their Wild Card golden ticket. Their win, along with Arizona’s earlier in the day, mean that there were only 2 Wild Card spots left to claim. Sunday would determine the rest. The noon slot would have 3 games, all vital to setting the playoff picture. Ohio could clinch a spot with a win, the last Western Conference Wild Card. New Jersey, if they beat Ohio, would wrap up the hunt for a NE Division Champion. Meanwhile, Chicago was in Philadelphia. A win by the Machine gave them the Central Division title and pushed Baltimore into the playoffs ahead of the Stars, but a win by the homestanding Stars and Philadelphia would be in, perhaps even as division champs, while Michigan would have a window to knock Chicago from the top of the Central and into a Wild Card slot. Michigan would be in Pittsburgh at the same time, hoping to snatch away the Central Crown while also crushing Pittsburgh’s hopes for a Wild Card.

With all three games broadcast simultaneously, we saw a lot of scoreboard watching. It became apparent pretty early that Pittsburgh was looking good in an upset bid over Michigan. They would eventually win by 17 points, keeping them alive as long as Ohio (and 2 others) lost. But Ohio was putting up a good fight at New Jersey, while Chicago and Philadelphia were close throughout. The Machine-Stars game ended first, with Philadelphia capturing a 20-14 win. With Michigan also losing, the Machine would back into the Central Division title, with Michigan now a Wild Card. In New Jersey, the Generals needed a 2-minute drive to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, but a controversial play on 4^th down gave Ohio the win, as we will report just below, and that sent ripple effects through the rest of the weekend. The Ohio win meant that Pittsburgh upset of Michigan was for naught. Ohio would grab the final Western Conference playoff spot, meaning that Pittsburgh was out, as were Dallas and Oakland, who were yet to play. It also meant that Philadelphia, not New Jesey, would be the NE Division Champions, a fact not lost to the Stars players watching the final seconds of the Ohio-New Jersey game in the locker room monitors and popping champagne as Justin Fields took the victory formation for Ohio.

So, headed into the later Sunday games, what was still on the line? All 8 playoff spots were claimed. The Memphis-New Orleans and Charlotte-San Diego games had no bearing, and now, with Ohio’s win, neither did the Las Vegas-Dallas game. Yes, it was nice to see Charlotte earn their first win of the season, though many in San Diego felt the day was better spent elsewhere (a season low attendance for that game was predictable), but it would not be until the 8pm game on ESPN that the final piece of the puzzle would be settled. Seattle was in Oakland and a win by the Dragons gave them the 1-seed in the West, with an Oakland upset very much on the minds of the Denver Gold and their fans, as Denver would snatch up the 1-seed if Oakland could prevail.

The Dragons dispatched the Invaders somewhat easily, 28-9, much to the Chagrin of the Gold. Seattle would have the 1-seed and the playoff matchups would be set for next week. We will have two divisional matchups, with New Jersey forced to travel down I-95 to Philadelphia and Ohio headed to Chicago. We would also have Houston playing in Orlando after the Renegades won their finale to make it a 6-game season-ending win streak. Finally, we would have Michigan make the trip out to the desert to face the Wranglers. No luck for the other 6 contenders as all 4 of the teams who were in playoff position after Week 16 won, meaning there would be no Final Week reprieve for the teams on the wrong side of the playoff picture after their first 15 games. The field was now set, and on to the postseason.

OHIO GLORY 25  NEW JERSEY GENERALS 20

For the visiting Ohio Glory, a win meant that they would earn a Wild Card spot, their first playoff trip in 3 years, and a major turnaround for Coach Jay Gruden in his first year, following a combined 7 wins in the past 2 years. A loss would mean an 8-8 finish and almost certain elimination from playoff contention. For New Jersey, already guaranteed no less than a Wild Card berth in the Eastern Conference, a win would snap a troubling 3-game losing streak and would give New Jersey the NE Division title, their 3^rd in the past 5 years, but an important milestone for their new head coach Robert Saleh. The stakes were clear for both teams, the tension high for two 1^st year coaches, and the pressure certainly there for the 106 players suited up on Sunday, so how could this not be one of the most watched, and most intense matchups of the weekend?

More than 52,000 were on hand at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, hoping their New Jersey Generals could end a 3-game skid that had put the division title in jeopardy. Tied with Philadelphia atop the division at 9-6, the Generals could not afford another loss, not without risking their shot at a division title. After 9 consecutive wins rocketed them to the top of the division, they needed one more to lock up a title that a month ago felt very much like theirs for the taking. The Generals came onto the field, hopeful, but perhaps not fully confident the job could get done. As for Ohio, Theirs had been an up-and-down season all year, with no win-streak or losing streak of more than 2 games. They had recently dropped two important games within the division, falling to both Michigan and Chicago in back-to-back weeks, but rebounded with a win over New England in Week 16. That win, paired with a loss by the Oakland Invaders had placed the Glory into 6^th position in the conference, meaning that they controlled their destiny on the final weekend of the season, a win ensuring a trip to the playoffs.

Ohio started the game somewhat conservatively, an Isaiah Pead run on the first play, followed by a called QB run by their star rookie, Justin Fields. The two plays produced a total of 4 yards, and when a 3^rd and 6 throw was off target, they quickly punted. But while New Jersey got the ball back quickly, Ohio’s coaches were immediately assessing how the Generals had defended their opening jabs. The Generals got a first down on their first possession but then were forced to punt after a holding call turned a 3^rd and 6 into a 3^rd and 16 that QB Nick Foles was not able to convert. When Ohio’s offense took the field again, they showed New Jersey a very different strategy.

The Glory’s 2^nd possession started with a bang, QB Justin Fields faking the ball to Pead and finding Curtis Samuel on a 17-yard deep out. Five plays later he would find Samuel again, this time for a 33-yard touchdown. The drive consisted of 6 plays, all passes. In fact, for the entire game, Ohio would only attempt 17 runs, and 12 of those would be their quarterback, not former 1,000-yard back Isaiah Pead or rookie HB Trey Sermon. Coach Gruden came into the game feeling that the Generals would be more vulnerable through the air, and he abandoned the idea of balancing his offense after only 2-3 plays on the opening drive. Justin Fields would attempt 46 passes in the game, and would prove Gruden correct.

The game went into the 2^nd quarter with Ohio up 7-0, but New Jersey finding some success on their second possession. The Generals would try to balance the offense, keeping pressure off their QB, Nick Foles, by pushing a 2-back run scheme. The issue they would face is that Ohio was expecting just that. The combination of Delone Carter and Tony Pollard, who, as a duo would finish the year with a combined 1,584 yards, would have 24 carries on the day, but would produce only 29 yards of offense. That was to be a huge issue, but on this drive, the Generals were effective in using play action and got a little help from the refs as Ohio got called on a roughing the passer call that put the ball in the red zone. It would take New Jersey 7 plays to get from the 18 into the endzone, but eventually Delone Carter was able to plunge in from the 1 to level the score at 7 apiece.

Ohio’s 3^rd possession gave them the lead once again as Justin Fields would complete 5 of 6 on the drive and rush once again, picking up a penalty for defensive holding along the way. He hit on his second TD toss of the day from the 9, finding TE Richard Rodgers on a quick hitter at the 4, with Rodgers plowing his way into the endzone from there. But, following a quick 3-and-out from the New Jersey offense, Ohio would make a key blunder and help the Generals stay very much engaged in a game both teams needed badly.

The Ohio mistake was actually twofold. First, on the opening play of their next possession, Justin Fields took a shotgun snap and was under immediate pressure. He tried to scramble out of it, but instead rolled right into the blitzing safety, Shamarko Thomas. The attempted escape cost him 4 more yards, and he was sacked for a loss of 13, back to the 7 yard line. That was bad enough, but on 2^nd down, it got worse. A QB bootleg run was called by Coach Gruden, but Fields took an early hit from DE Yetur Gross-Matos, the ball dislodged and was scooped by Generals’ MLB Matt Milano, who snatched it from the turf and sprinted to the endzone for a New Jersey touchdown. It would be the only turnover for either team on the day, but it was a big one, leveling the score a 2^nd time, now at 14-14, and riling up the General fans as the two teams headed to the half.

The General faithful would stay riled up into the 3^rd quarter, with both defenses finding ways to slow down offensive progress and force punts, 4 in all in the drive. The only drive that did not end in a punt ended badly for New Jersey as a nice coffin corner punt put the ball at their own 3, and a poor blitz coverage caused guard Danny Isadora to wrestle Ohio LB Ryan Shazier to the ground, a clear holding violation, and one called in the endzone for an Ohio safety and a 2-point lead for the visitors.

The safety would be the only points of the quarter as both teams dealt with their opponent’s halftime adjustments and both defenses proved effective. As the game moved into the 4^th quarter, tensions were high and the New Jersey fans started to feel some anxiety. Ohio opened the quarter with a pair of completions from Fields to get the ball into field goal range, and when they failed to convert a 3^rd and 5, a field goal is exactly what they got, building up a tentative 19-14 lead with 13:30 left to play. New Jersey, which had not scored an offensive point since the first minute of the 2^nd quarter, needed a drive. What they got was a huge play from TE Jonnu Smith on his first catch of the day. The play came on a 2^nd and 2, with Ohio overplaying the inside run fake. There was confusion in coverage with both safeties headed wide to take on Beckham and Sanu, and that left Smith all alone with LB Malik Harrison, a speed mismatch. Foles saw the blown coverage immediately, hit Smith and it was off to the races. Safety Tyran Matthieu would finally run down the big tight end, but not until he was at the Ohio 4. Two Delone Carter inside plunges later and the Generals had taken their first lead of the game, 20-19. They would try for 2, to make it a 3-point game, but Ohio’s Chimdi Chekwa broke up the fade route to OBJ, and the Generals had to settle for a modest 1-point lead with 7:02 to play.

When Ohio failed to make a first down on the ensuing possession, General fans in the stadium started to feel things moving their way. 5:02 left to play and they just needed to kill clock and get out of the stadium with a win and a division title. But the Generals’ offense struggled when they were needed most. Two runs on 1^st and 2^nd down produced a combined 3 yards, and on 3^rd and 7 the Generals opted to run a 3^rd time, with Tony Pollard gaining only 4. With a 4^th and 3 on their own 32, New Jersey was forced to punt the ball back, giving Ohio nearly 4 full minutes to find a field goal.

Ohio would do more than that. Now completely abandoning the run, other than one Justin Fields scramble, they would move the ball down the field, past the fifty, past the 30, into the red zone, and inside the 10. When the 2-minute warning came, the Glory were already at the New Jersey 9 and it was the Generals who had to start calling timeouts, fearing that they would not have time for a late equalizer if Ohio scored. That score came with 1:47 on the clock, as Justin Fields hit HB Trey Sermon on a short pass from the 5 and the big back plowed into the endzone to put the Glory up by 5. They too, like New Jersey, would go for 2, hoping to build a 7-point advantage, but their attempt also failed.

Ohio was up 25-20 with 1:47 to play and a Wild Card in their hands but not secured. The Generals would have one drive to try to pull out the game and the division title. The fans rallied nervously as the offense took the field on their own 31, following a nice return by Rashard Robinson. A field goal did them no good, they would need to reach the endzone on this drive. On 2^nd and 10 from the 31, Foles hit Kenny Stills for 14 and as the receiver stepped out to stop the clock, the General fans erupted. The drive was on. But their enthusiasm was short-lived. A first down pass to TE Virgil Green produced only 4 yards and forced them to use their 2^nd time out. A second down throw towards OBJ did not find its target, Foles forced to throw early by Ohio pressure. Third and 6 from the 35. Foles lined up in the shotgun but was immediately pressured by a blitzing Ryan Shazier. He rolled to his right but was forced to throw the ball out of bounds to avoid the sack.

Fourth down, 6 yards needed to keep the drive, and the Generals’ hopes for a division title alive. Fans in MetLife Stadium could see that the Chicago-Philadelphia game had reached its conclusion, with the Stars getting the win, 20-14. Unless the Generals’ offense could pick up this first down and get the ball into the endzone in the next 1:37, hated rival Philadelphia would claim the NE Division crown and the Generals would slide to the 6 seed, very likely forced to travel to Philadelphia to face the Stars the next week.

Foles again headed into the shotgun. Ohio again sent pressure. The ball was out of Foles’s hands quickly, headed towards Odell Beckham Jr. about 8 yards downfield. Cornerback Donte Jackson, who had largely covered Sanu and not OBJ all game, was there, reaching around the New Jersey receiver and forcing his hand between Beckham’s, disrupting the pass as the two fell to the ground. The ball hit the turf and the crowd erupted in protest. There was no flag for pass interference. Beckham looked around for one and began to point to the side judge, but no flag came. As the celebratory Ohio defenders started to come off the field, Coach Saleh also pled his case to the officiating crew, but no flag was going to come now. Had Jackson gotten to Beckham too soon? Had he simply timed his over-the-back move well? The announcers showed the play multiple times but even they could not say for sure. Justin Fields and the Ohio offense came back on the field, reluctantly joined by the New Jersey defense, and as fans started to stream out of the stadium, Justin Fields took a knee, then another, and a third and final one.

Ohio would be headed to the postseason. New Jersey would as well, but with a very different emotional tone. Whereas celebration was the mood in the Ohio locker room, the Generals, having just lost at home, missing out on a possible division title and looking a trip to Philadelphia square in the face, were anything but pleased. There were post-game digs at the officials, there was anger at having seen the game end on a controversial call, and there was concern that a 4^th straight loss did not bode well for the Generals’ playoff chances. New Jersey and Ohio were both headed into the postseason but the way in which each would make that entry was very different and could well impact the way both approached the Wild Card round.

ST. LOUIS 14  BALTIMORE 16

The Blitz needed to win for any shot at a Wild Card slot, but St. Louis did not make it easy. If not for a strong game from Josh Jacobs (109 yards) and a pair of late field goals, the Blitz could have lost their shot. They still needed the Stars to lose at home to Chicago, but they did their part. Oh, and Calais Campbell again proved why he is a legend, with a 4-sack game that ensured he would at least be tied atop the leaderboard at season’s end.

POTG: Blitz DE Calais Campbell: 9 Tck, 4 Sck, 1 FF

ATLANTA 3  TAMPA BAY 44

For anyone who thought that Tampa Bay resting multiple starters on both sides of the line meant that they would give Atlanta an easy path to a Wild Card, well, the score tells you how wrong you were. The Bandit backups showed no mercy and no quarter. Matt Breida ran for 2 TDs, and the defense returned two horrible Pat White passes for scores, both in the 1^st quarter. It was ugly early and it stayed that way as Atlanta fully earned their drop out of playoff contention.

POTG: Bandit LB Devon Kennard: 5 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 Int, 1 Def TD, 1 FF

WASHINGTON 23  NEW ENGLAND 26

John Fox told his players that how they play when there is nothing on the line shows who they really are. His team took it to heart, earning their 6^th win to equal last year’s record. With Jameis Winston dinged up, Ryan Tannehill got one more shot to show he has a future in Foxboro. He made good use of it, going 25 of 39 for 230 yards and 2 scores, including a late TD toss to Zay Jones that proved to be the game winner.

POTG: New England CB Jalen Mills: 7 Tck, 1 FF, 1 FR

BIRMINGHAM 7  ARIZONA 41

Unlike the Atlanta Fire, the Wranglers were more than ready to take on the 2^nd string starters for Birmingham. Without many of their offensive starters, Birmingham just did not have much to offer, leading to Tim Tebow being the lead rusher for Birmingham. Meanwhile, Arizona, intent on locking up a Wild Card, put up the first 31 points on the day, with David Carr throwing for 2 scores and both Carey and Crowell scoring on the ground.

POTG: Wrangler QB David Carr: 16/22, 286 Yds, 2 TD, 0 Int

PORTLAND 18  LOS ANGELES 18 OVERTIME

When they took the field, the Express were still very much alive in the Wild Card hunt, yes, with long odds since they needed 5 other teams to lose, but they at least had a shot. By game’s end, their shot was over. The Stags played like they were the ones hoping for a longshot playoff berth, with Marcus Mariota going 24 of 39 for 224 and Brandin Cooks catching 9 for 118. When the Stags put up a field goal with 1:01 to play to tie the game, LA still had a shot, but Dan Bailey missed on a 52-yarder on the final play of regulation and then, amazingly, whiffed on a 37-yarder in overtime, a devastating blow for the Express. Portland had a shot at the win, but their kicker, Cody Parkey, also missed his OT kick and that is how we got the season’s only tie on the final weekend.

POTG: Stag DE Bruce Irvin: 7 Tck, 2 Sck, 1 Sfty

SAN ANTONIO 17  DENVER 31

The Gold wrap up the 2 seed in the West in front of an enthusiastic 50,101 at Empower Field. They will now get a bye before hosting a divisional game. Josh Allen looked playoff ready, throwing for 339 yards and 4 scores against the Gunslingers. Darnell Mooney caught 2 of those 4 TDs and Golden Tate added 96 more yards to his career best season total. Kudos to Gunslinger WR Brandon LaFell, who topped 100 receptions this season, adding 7 in this game.

POTG: Denver QB Josh Allen: 18/30, 339 Yds, 4 TD, 0 Int

OKLAHOMA 23  HOUSTON 31

The Outlaws were game, even with Jalen Hurts sitting out the finale, but Houston built up a 31-16 advantage and coasted their way to a playoff spot. Colt McCoy struggled with picks, throwing 3 in the game, but also threw 3 TDs as the Gamblers kept from getting trapped in this game. They finish 10-6 and will be the 5 seed in the East. As for Oklahoma, they love their 2^nd year QB and now need to build around him.

POTG: Oklahoma TE Mark Andrews: 5 Rec, 49 Yds, puts him over 1,000 on the season.

ORLANDO 23  JACKSONVILLE 7

The Renegades win their 6^th in a row, locking up the 4 seed in the East and ensuring one more game at Camping World Stadium as they shut down the Bulls and rookie Trevor Lawrence. Early TD tosses from Wilson to both Hunte Renfrew and David Njoku helped Orlando get a solid lead, and then relied on Chris Carson and Boston Scott to shorten the game. The win gives Orlando an 11-5 final record, their best since winning the league title in 2001.

POTG: Orlando QB Russell Wilson: 23/34, 224 Yds, 2 TD, 1 Int

CHICAGO 14  PHILADELPHIA 20

The Stars, spent a lot of time scoreboard watching to see if they still had a shot at the division title. They also spent a lot of time frustrating the Machine offense. Chicago outgained Philly 511-260, but they just could not get in the endzone one more time to get the W they needed. The Stars were hardly a clearly better team, but they did the small things to keep the game in hand and turned a 14-10 deficit into a 20-10 victory in the 4^th. That, plus New Jersey’s loss, means Philly goes from 2-14 last year to the NE Division champs this season. Not too bad for first year head coach Dan Quinn, a definite COTY candidate.

POTG: Star HB Derek Henry: 23 Att, 128 Yds, 2 TD

MICHIGAN 3  PITTSBURGH 20

With a slim chance at playoff football, Coach Holtz told his Mauler players that the day was for them, not about a Wild Card but about proving something to themselves. The Maulers took that to heart and showed up against a heavily favored Michigan squad. The defense held Michigan out of the endzone and produced 3 takeaways, including 2 picks of QB Kirk Cousins. The offense, led by Andy Dalton’s 20/30 performance, helped Pittsburgh slowly build up a lead, from 3-3 to 20-3 by game’s end. It may be a bad omen for the Panthers as they head to the postseason, but certainly a positive note for the Maulers as their season ends.

POTG: Mauler CB Rasul Douglas: 5 Tck, 2 Int, 1 Def TD

MEMPHIS 20  NEW ORLEANS 31

In a game that was for nothing more than pride, the New Orleans Breakers got their 6^th win to create a 3-way tie in the Southern Division. While tiebreakers have them 4^th, they can at least say they were tied for 3^rd. Jordy Nelson had a good final game of the year, catching 4 passes for 108 yards and a TD, while LB Kwon Alexander added a pick, a sack, and 9 tackles to his yearly totals. For Memphis, the issue now is at QB, having pushed Paxton Lynch out the door and with Blake Bortles again looking underwhelming, we are not sure if their Week1 starter in 2022 is on the roster today.

POTG: Breaker LB Kwon Alexander: 9 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 Int

CHARLOTTE 25  SAN DIEGO 17

It was a game that meant nothing to the Thunder, but a heck of a lot to the Monarchs. In their last chance to avoid a winless season, Charlotte came to play. Kyle Boller threw for 2 scores, the defense added a safety, and Stephen Earl connected on 3 field goals as the Monarchs got their first win and finished San Diego Coach Dick LeBeau’s tenure with the club with their 9^th consecutive loss. Both teams will have new head coaches in 2022, and both certainly hope for better results as well, but at least Charlotte avoided the dreaded 0-17 donut.

POTG: Charlotte DE Anthony Zettel: 6 Tck, 1 Sfty, 1 FF, 1 FR

LAS VEGAS 41 DALLAS 35  OVERTIME

Ohio’s win earlier in the day meant that Dallas’s hopes for a Wild Card were already removed when they took the field, but neither they nor the Las Vegas Vipers played like teams running out a lost season. Both clubs played with tenacity in what was a meaningless, but highly entertaining game. Kareem Hunt’s 72 yards pushed him over 1,000 for the season, while Aaron Dobson won the league receptions title with 5 more in his final game of the year. For Dallas, Duke Johnson rushed for 73 yards on only 9 carries, while Justin Herbert found both Courtland Sutton and Pharaoh Brown for scores before exiting the game. Coach Kingsbury let P. J. Daniels finish out the year, and it ended up being a longer than anticipated assignment as the game went to overtime. The game winner from Las Vegas was a short Minshew to Dwayne Allen TD pass to end both teams’ seasons, Las Vegas at 6-10 and Dallas at 8-8.

POTG: Las Vegas TE Dwayne Allen: 8 Rec, 53 Yds, 3 TD

SEATTLE 28  OAKLAND 9

The final playoff impactful game of the weekend only had meaning for Seattle when the game started, Oakland having also been eliminated by Ohio’s victory over New Jersey. Seattle played conservatively throughout, building up a 28-6 lead over 3 quarters. Amari Cooper was the offensive star, putting up 116 yards and a TD. Davante Adams caught 10 balls in his quest for 100 but with 2 picks Davis Mills had a rough game against a very solid Seattle defense. The Dragon win assured them the 1 seed and home field in the Western Conference playoffs.

POTG: Dragon WR Amari Cooper: 5 Rec, 116 Yds, 1 TD

Stars, Glory, Wranglers, and Gamblers Win to Earn Playoff Berths

As we have seen several times in recent years, and as has been something of a trend since at least the mid-1990’s teams that are in position for a playoff spot with 1 game left to go very often do what is needed to lock in that playoff spot, in other words, they win. There are exceptions, of course, teams that lose their final matchup and with it their playoff hopes, but this year, as with many others, we saw teams retain their positions and secure their postseason opportunity.

All 4 teams which entered the weekend in playoff position, Arizona and Ohio in the West, Philadelphia and Houston in the East, needed to simply win their matchups this week to lock in their playoff spot, and all 4 did just that. Ohio did it with an upset win over the New Jersey Generals. Philadelphia benefitted from that, after defeating the Chicago Machine, because that loss helped them leapfrog New Jersey, earning not the 5^th or 6^th seed, but moving up to the 3^rd as the NE Division Champions. Arizona handily defeated a Birmingham squad that rested several key players, earning themselves the Western Conference’s 4 seed, and the Houston Gamblers defeated Oklahoma in NRG Stadium to lock in their playoff spot in the East. Victories by these 4 teams meant that several others were removed from consideration. Baltimore, Atlanta, Oakland, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles all fell short of a playoff spot in part due to the results from the 4 latest additions to the field.

And so, we will now see all 4 of these teams in the Wild Card round this week. Philadelphia and Arizona will be at home, while Houston and Ohio must hit the road in the first round of playoffs, but, at the very least all 4 can say they made it, and largely due to their ability to get the job done when it had to be done.

Machine, Generals, and Panthers Back Into Postseason

It was not the way any of these clubs wanted to enter the postseason, taking a loss in Week 17 and ending the regular season on a sour note. Chicago came into the week with a 4-game winning streak, only to fall to Philadelphia in a must-win game for the Stars. Michigan, winners of 5 in a row to lock in a playoff spot, also fell in their finale, a 20-3 no-show against the Pittsburgh Maulers, who were also battling to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, New Jersey, already having suffered losses in their prior 3 games, saw that streak extend to 4 as they were upset at home by the Ohio Glory. In all three cases the teams were already playoff bound, and in all three they faced a club that had a must-win in order to have a shot at the postseason. The message, of course, is that motivation matters in pro football. Yes, all three teams had something to gain with a win, potential division titles and higher seeds, but there is nothing like the hunger a team feels when they know that a loss removes any chance of a playoff berth, and that hunger fueled Philly, Pittsburgh, and Ohio as they outbattled and outscored their more secure, perhaps somewhat undermotivated opponents.

Bandit Backups Humiliate Atlanta

One team that had nothing to gain this week still came out like a ferocious lion looking for a meal. The Tampa Bay Bandits, with the 1-seed and home field locked up at 13-2, opted to rest most of their best-known player, and yet, they still took it to the Atlanta Fire as if the Fire had just killed the Bandits’ family dog, John Wick style. The list of Bandits not on the field this weekend was a long one, including QB Dak Prescott, HB Dalvin Cook, WR Dez Bryant, OT Levi Brown, DT Marcell Dareus, CB Jalen Ramsey and SS Derwin James, but the players who took their spots certainly showed they were not nameless and talentless fill-ins.

QB B. J. Daniels, as he has done on multiple occasions this year, stepped in for Dak Prescott and had himself a very solid game, going 15 of 20 for 231 yards. HB Matt Breida averaged 5.5 YPC on his way to a 61-yard, 2 TD game. Ryan Grant stepped into Dez Bryant’s role and came down with 6 receptions for 116 yards and a score while Deebo Samuel got a chance to play outside in addition to his normal slot role, finishing the game with 4 catches for 75 yards.

On defense, CB Noah Igbinoghene moved into the 2 slot while Asante Samuel stepped into the lead role. Igbinoghene was tested, but finished the game with good numbers, 10 tackles and 2 passes defended. At safety, Daimion Stafford finished with 2 tackles and a pass defense while subbing for Derwin James. And as a team, well, the result was quite stunning, a 44-3 drubbing of an Atlanta team that still had playoff aspirations. It was both an ugly day for the Fire, and a sign that Tampa Bay is very deep, well-coached, and ready for the postseason.

Charlotte Surprises San Diego, Avoids Winless Season

It took the entire season, 17 weeks, but the Charlotte Monarchs finally have themselves a win. After 15 defeats in 16 weeks, the Monarchs found the formula they needed to fly across country and get a win at the hands of the league’s 2^nd worst club, San Diego. Neither team’s standing is impacted by the result, with Charlotte already locked into the 1^st overall draft pick at 0-15 and San Diego secure in the 2^nd pick at 3-12, but the win means that Charlotte does not join the infamous list of teams to go without a victory in a pro season.

The got the win by doing three things they had been unable to do all season long. They won the time of possession battle, controlling the ball for 32:42; they won the turnover battle 2-1, and they outgained their opponent 312-294, all three for the first time all season. San Diego had their moments, and HB Charles Sims reached the 1,000-yard mark with 102 on the day, but Charlotte did not fold as they had in so many games this year. Kyle Boller, who was given the starting job at QB after a pretty miserable opening 12 games from Oakland import Jimmy Garoppolo, got his first win in 4 tries, going 24 of 40 for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns. Nyheim Hines contributed 75 on the ground, and the Charlotte defense played its best game of the year, limiting San Diego to only 4 successful 3^rd down conversions in 14 attempts.

While a 1-15 season is certainly not a reason for celebration, and with both the GM and the Head Coach already released from their duties, Charlotte will now begin a long rebuild process (as will San Diego), but on this day they can hold their heads up, earning a win and finishing the year with a small statement of pride.

Fields Makes ROTY Statement with Huge Game in Finale

As if Justin Fields needed more ammunition in his battle to earn Rookie of the Year, a season-finale that saw him throw for 336 yards and 3 touchdowns certainly put the cherry on top. All kudos to the strong seasons put up by Washington HB Travis Etienne, Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence, and Denver DE Odafe Oweh, the ROTY has to go to Fields as he not only put up huge games in Columbus, but also led Ohio to a 9-7 record and a Wild Card berth.

Fields was dynamic all season, and will be a real test for the Chicago Machine this week, though they, more than any other team has seemed well-suited to defending the young QB’s dual threat nature. Fields finishes the season with a QB Rating of 67.5, which is hardly eye-popping, and his 2,962 yards and 15:14 TD:INT ratio look very much like numbers that a rookie QB would have when needing more game experience to pick up the speed of pro football, and that certainly seemed true at times this year. But what is missing in those numbers is the impact the Ohio State product had with his legs. In addition to the 2,962 yards and 15 TDs passing, we have to add in 728 yards rushing, with 11 rushing touchdowns. Those are some impressive numbers and create a very different picture of the rookie QB. With 26 total TDs, and more than double the rushing yards of the Glory’s lead back, Isaiah Pead, Fields was the Ohio offense this year, a lot to ask of a rookie. He not only made the plays necessary to get Ohio back to the postseason, but with a style that was a regular on ESPN’s Plays of the Day.

Campbell Gets Share of Sack Title with 4 Final Week Takedowns

I think we have all learned by now never to count out DE Calais Campbell. He has done this before. Constancy was the name of the game all year for Campbell in his new role on the Baltimore Blitz. Just look at these numbers across the first 10 games of the year, total sacks each week of: 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, and 2. Every week he showed up, and after 15 games he had an impressive 23 sacks, impressive for anyone not named Calais Campbell. But those 23 sacks meant he was 3 behind the league leader, his replacement in Orlando, Montez Sweat. Sweat went into the final week with that 3 sack advantage. So, what is Campbell to do? After all, this is a player who has won 12 consecutive sack titles, an incredible and, very likely, unmatchable record.

Well, the only thing to do is to record 4 sacks in the season finale. Campbell’s line against the St. Louis Skyhawks this week included 9 tackles and a forced fumble, but it was the 4 sacks that had everyone once again praising Campbell. The amazing output in the season’s final week not only gave Campbell a 1-sack lead in the season-long marathon, but was vital to Baltimore’s hard-fought 17-10 victory, a victory that gave them a chance at a Wild Card. They would lose out on that chance with Philadelphia’s win over Chicago, but certainly Campbell did all anyone could ask of him in helping the Blitz in Week 17. Later in the Weekend, Montez Sweat would equalize Campbell’s total, with 1 sack in Orlando’s Week 17 win. It means Campbell would now share the sack title for the first time in his career, but after 12 seasons all alone at the top, the fact that he was able to make up a 3-sack deficit to share the title with Sweat is just one more amazing story in a career of impressive moments.

The week’s results give us our 12 playoff teams, with Seattle and Tampa Bay earning home field with the 1 seed, Denver and Birmingham getting a bye as the 2 seeds, and 8 teams ready to face each other this week in the Wild Card round. Philadelphia’s win over Chicago gave the Stars the NE Division crown only 1 year after going 2-14, a title lost by New Jersey when they were defeated by Ohio. Chicago claimed the final division title, doing so not with a victory but with a pair of losses, their own offset by Michigan’s surprising loss in Pittsburgh. The final playoff slots were all claimed by teams in position after Week 16 as Houston, Philadelphia, Ohio, and Arizona all won this week to lock up the final positions, sending Baltimore, Atlanta, Oakland, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles home empty.

So, in our Wild Card round it will be the 6 seeds, New Jersey and Ohio headed to the 3 seeds, Philadelphia and Chicago, setting up two divisional matchups, including a classic rivalry. The 4 seeds, Orlando and Arizona will also host the 5 seeds, with Houston heading to central Florida while Michigan must now travel to the desert.

Four playoff games this week, each with its own injury situation. Fortunately, there were few significant injuries in Week 17, but that does not mean that teams will not be impacted by the absence of some key players this weekend. Here is the breakdown of each game from an injury perspective:

NJ: T D. Stephenson (IR), QB T. Bridgewater (IR), DE K. Ealy (D), G J. Garnett (P)

PHI: DE D. Hunter (P), DT J. Babineaux (P)

Ordinarily, we would say that New Jersey will have issues with Donald Stephenson out of commission, but if both Hunter and Babineaux are also out, the Star pass rush is also hurting. New Jersey’s biggest issue may actually be the loss of their own pass rush specialist, Kony Ealy, in this game.

MGN: SS M. Johnson (Out), LB D. Bush (D), CB D. Kirkpatrick (Q)

ARZ: OT M. Van Dyck (IR), CB J. Harris (IR), G C. Whitehair (D), LB A. J. Klien (D)

The Panthers’ D could be significantly hampered if both Devon Bush and Dre Kirkpatrick are out of commission, though both could still make an appearance. For Arizona, it is unlikely that A. J. Klien will be able to go, though he has not fully been ruled out.

HOU: DE T. Crowder (Out), LB R. Wilson (P)

ORL: DT E. Ferguson (IR), G A. Silatulo (Out), CB M. Jackson (D)

The good news for Houston is that they expect Ramik Wilson to be active for the game. The bad news is that Orlando still has a pretty solid O-line, even with Silatulo out for the playoffs.

OHI: CB K. Seymour (Q), DE D. Jones (Q)

CHI: DE J. Pierre-Paul (Q), G N. Allegretti (Q), CB J. Verritt (P), SS J. Poyer (P)

The Machine are hoping that they can get all 4 of their injured players ready to go by Saturday. If they cannot, the absence of Pierre-Paul and Poyer in particular could make life quite a bit easier for Ohio and QB Justin Fields.

Black Monday Comes for Joseph, Moss, LaFleur & LeBeau

With another season coming to an end the dreaded “Black Monday”, when teams announce the release of coaches from their duties, comes with it. While we would hardly say that any of the four announcements we received this Monday were surprises, it is still somewhat amazing to see a highly respected football mind like that of Dick LeBeau out on the street looking for work. San Diego’s Dick LeBeau, after 8 seasons with the Thunder, was unable to survive a second consecutive 3-win season in southern California, released after his Thunder became the first and only team this year to fall to defeat to the Charlotte Monarchs. He joins Portland’s Matt LaFleur, Jacksonville’s Winston Moss, and Charlotte’s Vance Joseph on the unemployment line, though we doubt any of the four will remain there for long.

LeBeau started strong after his move from Michigan to Las Vegas and then San Diego. In his first year he topped .500, with the Thunder (then in Las Vegas) at 9-7. By 2016 he had the Thunder in the playoffs, where they would stay for 4 consecutive years, winning 10 games in 2016, 2017, and 2018 before winning the division title in 2019 at 12-4. But each year early playoff exits showed the club that despite consistent winning records, they were not at the level of Western Conference powers like Arizona and Michigan. What happened after the 2019 Division Crown was unforeseen and initially viewed as a fluke, a 3-13 collapse that saw all of the successes of the prior year turned on their head. LeBeau survived the collapse, with many predicting a quick turnaround, but with another 3-win season this year, the club felt a change was needed. LeBeau, considered a defensive mastermind, will almost certainly catch on as a DC if he wishes, but after nearly 20 years as head coach of the Panthers and Thunder, he may well opt to step away rather than move back to a coordinator role. 

In Portland, Matt LaFleur had his moments. Twice in his 6-year tenure he had the club above .500 and looking like a potential Pacific Division challenger, but with only 1 playoff appearance in 6 years, and with QB Marcus Mariota seeming to regress after a solid 2019 campaign, the shiny image of LaFleur as a QB whisperer started to varnish. Portland had its second 9-7 season in 2020, but failed to make the postseason. This year’s drop to 5-10-1 was one too many disappointments for ownership in Portland, and with fans decrying the “wasting” of Mariota’s prime years, the Stags made the decision to move on and seek a different focus. They will almost certainly focus on an offensive-minded coach, as it once again was the offense that failed the Stags, averaging only 18.8 points per game, an 8-point per game drop from 2020. 

There was hope in Jacksonville, and that hope may have been the cause for the club to move on from Head Coach Winston Moss after only 2 seasons. The hope came in two waves, first the 7-9 season in 2020 which showed improvement on both sides of the ball, led by resurgent QB Teddy Bridgewater, and then in 2021 a new hope as the Bulls invested in Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence had his moments this season, but too few and with too many other issues on the squad, the Bulls slipped from 7-9 to 5-11 after many viewed them as a possible riser, even with a rookie QB. For 2022 a new coach will get the opportunity to build an offense around Lawrence and wideout Tee Higgins. Of course, with a defense that gave up nearly 26 points per game, that side of the ball should also not be ignored as the Bulls seek a leader with a record of success as a team builder. 

And finally, there is Vance Joseph, whose departure from the club has been well known for the past month. It is still odd to think that the Monarchs essentially fired their coach four weeks ago, but chose to have him run out the string. It is even stranger to realize that the club still fought to win games after the decision was made, earning their first and only win of the year in the season finale. But, after 2 seasons that saw Charlotte dip from 6-10 to 1-15, and with issues ranging from defensive continuity to offensive ineptitude, the need to clean house seemed obvious. Fans, still upset that Jim Mora Jr. was let go despite taking Charlotte to the playoffs in 7 of the prior 8 seasons, never warmed to Joseph, and the team’s performance certainly did not win him any fans within the ownership box either.

And so for these 4 teams the offseason starts in earnest, with a new coaching hire primary among their interests and efforts. Along with Houston, whose longstanding future Hall of Fame coach Wade Phillips is preparing to retire, the Monarchs, Bulls, Stags, and Thunder will begin interviewing candidates this week, taking advantage of the bye weeks for the league’s 4 best clubs to meet with coordinators on the more successful clubs, though we also expect that some big names not currently under contract, names like Coughlin and Harbaugh, will also be getting inquiries as well. The 2022 season starts now for these clubs as they try to rebuild and reset expectations for a brighter future.

Brady gets Ovation and Ceremonial Start in Oakland Finale

The season finale did not go the way the Oakland Invaders would have hoped, with Seattle easily controlling the game at Levi’s Stadium, but that did not stop the club from taking a moment to celebrate a future USFL and NFL Hall of Famer as his career came to an end. QB Tom Brady, who won two USFL titles with the New Jersey Generals, then moved on to the Dallas Cowboys of the NFL, where he helped “America’s Team” win 3 titles in 7 years, returned to the USFL in 2020 with the Invaders, looking to add a final chapter to his career back in the region where he was born and raised.

Invader fans had hoped for a deep playoff run with Brady at the helm, but with Oakland finishing 8-8 in both seasons, unable to turn a solid defense, a decent roster, and Brady’s leadership into a winning season, the dream of a 6^th title for the former late round draft pick from Michigan never materialized. The lack of success in Oakland did not keep the Invaders from giving Brady a proper sendoff. After having benched the 2-time USFL Champion QB with a month to play in the season, a move designed to help develop rookie Davis Mills, Oakland gave “Old Man Tom” the start this weekend. Brady came out for the first play of the game against Seattle, handed the ball off to Christian McCaffrey, then received a standing ovation as he left the field, the stadium PA announcer encouraging the crowd to celebrate the veteran QB. Action was paused for several minutes as players from both teams congratulated Brady on a career of successes and the Invaders handed him the game ball to add to his many accolades and awards.

Brady has already set up the next phase of his career, signing a deal to become the highest paid color commentator on the Fox network. Brady, having played in both the spring and fall leagues will join Fox’s teams for both their NFL and USFL coverage, beginning with a pair of guest appearances on Fox’s pregame show during the USFL playoffs before taking over as an in-stadium commentator when the 2021 NFL season kicks off in September. With his official retirement from the game this year, Brady will be eligible for induction to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2026, and could be another example of a player entering the Hall as a joint nominee of both pro leagues, following in the footsteps of another dual league superstar, Kurt Warner.

First 18 of Draft Order now Known

Twelve teams enter the playoffs, which now means that 18 teams are done for the year and as players clean out their lockers and head for home, the GM’s, scouts, and cap specialists get cranking. It also means that we now know the first 18 picks in the 2022 USFL Open Draft. We have known for a while that Chalotte would be leading off the Draft with the first pick, and that San Diego would follow, but now we can look at all 18 non-playoff teams, their needs, and their spot in the upcoming draft.

1-Charlotte

The Monarchs’ biggest need is certainly at QB after a failed experiment with former NFL and Oakland signal caller Jimmy Garoppolo. But, in a weaker QB class, will there be an option here, or will Free Agency be their path forward?

2-San Diego

The Thunder finished 2021 dead last in passing at only 185.4 YPG. But, is the issue the competition between the Christians (Ponder & Hackenberg) or is it their offensive line and sub-par receivers. We think they go WR early, especially because Ohio is unlikely to claim both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in the T-Draft, two Buckeye fliers.

3-Jacksonville

The Bulls feel they got their QB in the 2020 Draft, and Trevor Lawrence’s rookie numbers (3,627 yards, 21 TDs) seem to back that up. So, do they address the league’s 26^th-ranked run game or do they look at the 29^th ranked defense? If they get a shot at either Georgia’s Travon Walker or Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson at DE, we think they go for defense first.

4-St. Louis

The Skyhawks have needs all across their 26^th ranked defense. The secondary would be a good place to start, and there could well be some real talent at the top of the Open Draft at cornerback, including LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr., Cincinnati’s Sauce Gardner, and Washington’s Trent McDuffie.

5-Portland

Does the new coach stick with Mariota? Will he really have an option? Not likely in the QB class, so the Stags might need to look at another position of need, like RT, where Trey Pipkens struggled in both the run game and as a pass protector.

6-Oklahoma

They love Jalen Hurts, got a great deal on Eddie Lacy in trade, so now the Outlaws need to focus on a line that simply could not create a strong pocket for their QB or clear the way for Lacy. Pick a position, tackle, guard or center and there will be option for them with this pick.

7-Washington

The Feds love their new offense, with Travis Etienne making it easier for Jacoby Brissett to use play action, so it is now time to address the league’s worst run defense. They could put someone opposite Bradley Chubb if a DE is here, or they could beef up the DT position with one of Georgia’s big hosses, because Atlanta will not protect both Devonte Wyatt and Jordan Davis.

8-Las Vegas

The Viper’s biggest issue was the play of their safeties, so expect that to be a position of attention in both free agency and the draft. We love both Wolverine Daxton hill and Golden Domer Kyle Hamilton as possible options in the 1^st round.

9-San Antonio

The Gunslingers improved over their 1^st season, but the defense is still weak against the run and could use a real thumper in the LB group. Ulysses Gilbert is better as a strong side backer, not the MLB in their 4-3. Unfortunately, no MLB candidates currently hold first round grades, so the Gunslingers need to hope they see something in this fall's season.

10-New Orleans

Even with the injury to Geno Smith that cost him over a month, New Orleans was still Top 10 in both passing and scoring. They could go corner, to put someone opposite Tra’Davious White, defensive tackle, or they could look at a somewhat inconsistent situation at right tackle. It is good to have options at pick 10.

11-New England

With no QB help expected here, the Steamrollers either have to decide between Tannehill or Winston or go for what is behind Door 3 in free agency. In the draft we think they try to add more weapons, perhaps a more consistent back, someone like Iowa State’s Breece Hall or Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker.

12-Memphis

Another team that likely will have QB on the mind, but who are unlikely to find the answer in the draft. Expect Memphis to focus on their 22^nd rated run defense. The front line is solid enough, but they need more speed at LB, and if veteran NaVorro Bowman retires, well, that blows a huge hole in the middle of Rex Ryan’s defensive scheme.

13-Los Angeles

They have a core group of speedy receivers, a solid back in Perkins, and a pretty solid line, so why is the LA offense so bad? It may be time to admit that Kyler Murray is not the guy. But, as we keep saying, that is a free agency issue. In the draft we think they go for an upgrade at tight end, or possibly a 2^nd back to create a HB duo.

14-Oakland

Davis Mills played well enough in the season’s final month of the season that we think Oakland will stand pat there. They have far more questions in the secondary, at both corner and safety, so we think they look for pass defenders in the early rounds.

15-Atlanta

The Atlanta defense that was so effective in 2020 just fell apart in 2021. Ranking 24^th against the pass and not much better against the run. They need help at DT and MLB (behind Kuechley) and another corner could not hurt.

16-Dallas

We all may have expected too much from Justin Herbert this year. After all he cannot play defense, and the Dallas D definitely let them down, allowing 366.2 yards per game, including nearly 282 per game through the air. The big issue is at the nickel corner, so expect an early pick on a rookie DB.

17-Pittsburgh

The Maulers have to put more around Andy Dalton. He is not getting any younger and between a shaky line and the worst rushing attack in the league, he is not going to be able to sustain offense without help. The Maulers need to be bigger and meaner all across the line and they need to reconsider if Sony Michel truly is a lead back.

18-Baltimore

No one threw more passes this year than Jake Locker, and yet the Blitz were only 14^th in passing yardage. They missed out on the playoffs despite having the best pass defense in the league and one of the best overall defenses, so they are going to need to concentrate on the offense this year. It could start on the interior of the line (guard or center) or it could be adding more speed at wideout, someone to help Michael Pittman avoid double coverage.

Four Wild Card games on tap this week. Four games that are Win or Go Home, and four games with storylines to follow, from division rivalries, longstanding powers trying for one more shot at glory, and up and comers hoping to do more than just make an appearance. Here is our quick look at all 4 games on tap, as well as our picks for who comes out on top, surviving and advancing.

6-New Jersey Generals (9-7) @ 3-Philadelphia Stars (10-6)

Saturday, July 24 @ 3pm ET

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

Stars -5

The Stars get two bumps from the Vegas bookmakers, the usual 3-point home field bump, and a bump for going 2-2 over the past 4 weeks instead of 0-4 as New Jersey did. The key for the Stars is getting Derek Henry involved early and often, even if it does not produce big gains, because that keeps the defense off Carson Wentz, and when he has a clean pocket, he can be effective. For the reeling Generals, they need to figure out what has gone wrong this month and fix it quickly. That may mean doing something uncharacteristic, like asking Nick Foles to throw 40 passes, not 19. Or it may mean sending Aldon Smith and Matt Milano on more blitzes, even if that leaves the corners in man coverage.

OUR PICK: We think Philly, despite losing to New Jersey twice this year, has the upper hand, and is playing better ball right now. We take the Stars to win 24-17.

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5-Michigan Panthers (10-6) @ 4-Arizona Wranglers (10-6)

Saturday, July 24 @ 7pm ET

State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Wranglers -4

Arizona is a moderate favorite, largely off their huge 41-7 win this week and the fact that they are at home. But they know not to take Michigan lightly. These two faced off in the Western Conference Title Game last year and Michigan knocked them out with a 24-21 win. They could very well have their number again. The key for Michigan is obvious; LeVeon Bell has to be a threat. The better his first quarter is, the better the protection and options will be for Kirk Cousins. For Arizona, it is about unleashing Bud DuPree to go after Cousins on defense, and unleashing Victor Cruz and DeMarcus Robinson for big plays on offense.

OUR PICK: This one could easily go either way. But we think the Wranglers have been on an upward trajectory the past 6 weeks, and their offense just has more ways to beat you than Michigan’s, so we are going to again pick the home favorite. Wranglers 27-24.

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5-Houston Gamblers (10-6) @ 4-Orlando Renegades (11-5)

Sunday, July 25 @ 2pm ET

Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL

Gamblers -3

A rarity in the gambling world, a playoff game with a road favorite. The betting public just has more faith in Colt McCoy, a probable MVP candidate, vs. Russell Wilson, who led the league with 25 interceptions. Now, Montez Sweat could have a lot to say about that, but Houston is a very potent offense and one good enough to work around a problem matchup like those Sweat creates. Orlando will need to ask a lot from Wilson, and from NFL import back Chris Carson, if they want to stay on pace with the Gamblers.

OUR PICK: Maybe the Vegas books, the gambling public, and our bullpen are still underestimating the Renegades. After all they have won 6 in a row to end the season. But we just cannot see them as the favorites, even at home. We are going with the more proven commodity and picking the Gamblers. Our pick is Houston 28-20.

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6-Ohio Glory (9-7) @ 3-Chicago Machine (11-5)

Sunday, July 25 @ 6pm ET

Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Machine -9

So, do we expect to see the Ohio team that shocked Chicago 23-16 in Week 11 or the team that folded, losing 34-0 in Week 14? Honestly, it all comes down to how Chicago handles rookie QB Justin Fields, and when we look at the two games combined, Fields rushed for a grand total of -11 yards. Yup, Chicago knows how to keep him from winning with his legs. So that means he has to have a game like the one this week, where he threw the ball 40 times and had 3 TD passes. If he could get some help from Isaiah Pead, the Glory could surprise us, but he has just not been the same this year.

OUR PICK: We have to go with the heavily favored Machine. Chicago is better on paper in so many ways, and Ohio could be a classic “Happy to have made it here” story. Chicago is not. They want a title, and they have played very well down the stretch, including that demolition of the Glory only 4 weeks ago. We choose Chicago, 19-10.