2021 USFL Wild Card Weekend Recap

The USFL playoffs are here and they are once again a showcase for the league. Four games this week and each featuring big performances, compelling storylines, and each one setting up some big Divisional Round matchups. From divisional clashes between Northeast and Central rivals to clashes of styles between Houston and Orlando and even a classic Western Conference clash, this year offered early in the postseason. This weekend had a bit of everything. We will break down each game, take a look at how New Jersey, Chicago, Orlando and Arizona advanced, preview the upcoming Divisional Round, where the 4 top seeds in the league make their debuts, and we won’t skimp on the off-field news around player retirements or coaching searches either. It’s all here, so let’s get to it.

Retirement Announcements Bring Few Surprises

The first week of postseason football in both U.S. leagues brings several predictable news items. You will have Wild Card game results, Black Monday coaching changes, and retirement announcements. At times the latter can contain some surprises, like when a star back like Barry Sanders or Michael Turner decides to step away at the peak of their game. Other years the list of offseason retirements is somewhat predictable and offers few surprises to teams and their fans. The 2021-2022 offseason is proving so far to be one of the more predictable retirement cycles.

Of course, there are the retirements which have been announced prior to the end of the season, as we saw with Houston Head Coach Wade Phillips and Oakland QB Tom Brady. Some are known to the team, but not made public until now, while others are predictable simply based on age, performance, or attitude. So, who is on the list of immediate retirement announcements? A lot of names that will get an nod of acknowledgement rather than an expression of shock. Here is the current list, with the player’s age in parentheses.

• Invader QB Tom Brady (44)

• Express QB Matt Gutierrez (38)

• Monarch WR Marques Colston (37)

• Express WR Eric Weems (36)

• Bulls WR Jeremy Kerley (32)

• Breaker OT Marcus Gilbert (33)

• Viper OT Tyson Clabo (36)

• Viper OT Chris Williams (35)

• Roughneck DT Domato Peko (33)

• Fire DT Jarron Gilbert (36)

• Mauler LB Brian Orakpo (34)

• Fire LB Dannell Ellerbe (34)

• Outlaw LB Odell Thurman (36)

• Roughneck LB Brandon Spikes (35)

• Viper LB Ahmad Brooks (35)

• Steamroller LB Travis Goethel (35)

• Monarch CB Zachary Bowman (36)

No real surprises here, though Las Vegas has to be concerned about losing 2 of their 4 rostered tackles. The departures most likely to be hardest to replace seem to be at the linebacker position, including Orakpo in Pittsburgh, Thurman in Oklahoma, Spikes in Dallas, and Ellerbe in Atlanta. Looking at replacement strategies, we already know what Oakland will be doing at QB, with Davis Mills essentially handed the offense 4 weeks early. In LA, we expect the Express are reevaluating the entire QB room, and even starter Kyler Murray could be out if the Express think they can upgrade across the depth chart at that key position.

Among the receivers, Charlotte had already been looking at options, whether that is Austin Proehl, former Panther Calvin Ridley, or possibly a free agent or rookie addition. LA had largely considered the Weems acquisition to be a bit of a bust, with Hollywood Brown, Jeremy Maclin and Marquise Lee all seeing more snaps by season’s end. New Orleans has some big shoes to fill at LT and are unlikely to move Dennis Kelly over from the RT position, preferring instead to bring in a new option at the position. Likewise, Las Vegas, who are losing both their 1^st and 2^nd string LT, are going to be in the market for sure, though they may also consider shifting Jamarco Jones from the right to the left.

Looking at that big LB group, we know that Pittsburgh could move Brian Cushing over to MLB, but a lot will depend on who they are able to either sign or draft. Our best guess is that they would prefer to get an outside LB who can add to the pass rush and move Cushing inside to focus on the run. In Oklahoma, Vontez Burfict seems a likely choice to step in for Thurman, having shifted to the inside this past season. Expect Oklahoma to draft for depth, but not necessarily for an immediate impact player. Finally, Atlanta will certainly be hoping to get a young, aggressive outside backer who can chase down the run, cover a tight end, and still contribute on blitz packages.

The list after 1 week is growing, and while it is not offering many surprises, even the known departures are still players that will be missed. We should add as well that the list will certainly grow longer as we see teams eliminated from the post-season and we often see a small wave of announcements as well in January, when players preparing for camp realize that the fire is just not burning the same way. Players we still have a watch on include Arizona WR Victor Cruz (34), LA corner Dominique Rogers-Cromartie (35), Ohio FS LaRon Landry (35), Tampa Bay DT Marcel Dareus (34), and Denver OT Ryan Clady (36). 

NEW JERSEY GENERALS 24  PHILADELPHIA STARS 12

The opening game of the week saw a classic rivalry match between two NE Division titans. The Stars leapfrogged the Generals on the final week of the season to reclaim the division title and get the opportunity to play this game in front of a much friendlier Lincoln Financial Field crowd than if they had been forced to head up the Turnpike to the Meadowlands. New Jersey, losers of 4 in a row in a classic “backing into the playoffs” scenario, had a lot to prove, and they did it, doubling up the Stars by playing outstanding defense and making big plays on offense, even as their ability to maintain drives was questionable at best.

New Jersey only converted 8 first downs and was 1 of 10 on third down, showing that the Stars’ defense was ready to shut down the long, time-killing drive. But in doing that, they forgot to shut down the big play. Case in point, New Jersey’s first score of the game, a 71-yard catch and run by TE Jonnu Smith that turned a 3-0 deficit into a 7-0 lead that would mark the first of only 3 lead changes in the game. Nick Foles, who only attempted 18 passes, completed 11, but none bigger than the seam route to Smith, who brushed off the safety and rumbled his way for 6.

Most of the first half was about stalled New Jersey drives and failed Philadelphia red zone trips. The Stars first half field goals were chip shots of 26, 34, and 25 yards, which, for those of you paying attention, means that the Stars had the ball at the New Jersey9-, 17-, and 8-yard lines and were unable to punch it in. This despite having Dereck Henry carry the ball 23 times. New Jersey, for their part, had a major breakdown in the red zone as well, settling for a 21-yard kick from the 4 after an apparent Foles to OBJ touchdown toss was ruled offensive pass interference due to the General receiver’s push off move.

Leading 10-9 at the half, New Jersey would fall behind early in the 4^th on yet another chip shot from the Stars, an Eddie Pineiro kick from the 17 once again. The kick came with 2:37 left on the clock and gave the Stars a hard-fought 12-10 lead, but it was not meant to last. Still angry from the OPI call, Odell Beckham Jr. had his revenge as Nick Foles found him on a perfect corner route to produce a 17-yard TD with 1:17 left to play. New Jersey now led by 5, forcing Philadelphia to go for a touchdown with only 1 timeout left to use.

The Stars quickly moved the ball from the 20 to the 37, but Carson Wentz made a fatal mistake on 1^st and 10, forcing the ball to Randall Cobb only to have General LB Jamin Davis dropping back in zone and right into the path of the ball. The athletic linebacker tipped the ball as it went overhead and caught it on the way down. With a convoy of Generals in front, Davis returned the pick 43 yards for a game-securing score. Now up 24-12, with only 54 seconds left, the victory and a bit of revenge belonged to New Jersey, who now move on to face the Conference’s top seed, the Tampa Bay Bandits.

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MICHIGAN PANTHERS 20  ARIZONA WRANGLERS 24

A good one in the desert as two teams very accustomed to deep playoff runs faced off in the Wild Card round for the first time since 1994. In a game that Michigan would lead for more than a half, the Wranglers would find the late game heroics they needed to get the win and advance to the next round, even with veteran starter David Carr sidelined by a mid-game concussion.

The two teams did what they do best, for Michigan, that meant running the ball with LeVeon Bell, who finished with 135 yards on 21 attempts, a very healthy 6.4 YPC average. For Arizona it was about the dual threat of Crowell and Carey, who combined for 98 yards and 2 scores, but also the ability of both Carr and his understudy, Brock Osweiler, to connect on big plays, plays like a 68-yard throw to Victor Cruz, a 59-yarder to TE Robert Tonyan, and a 37-yarder to slot receiver Brandon Aiyuk.

Despite the offensive firepower of both clubs, the game was locked up at 3-3 after 1 quarter, but it started to heat up in the 2^nd. Michigan started off the quarter’s fireworks with a 26-yard run from Bell, followed by Kirk Cousins hitting Donavan Peoples-Jones from the 9 with the game’s first TD. The 7-point advantage was short-lived as Arizona responded with a 7-play drive, Cruz’s big catch putting the ball at the 1-yard line for Isaiah Crowell, who dove in to level the game at 10.

Michigan again took the lead before the half, with Cousins finding midseason acquisition Justin Blackmon for a 17-yard score. The former Monarch outfought A. J. Bouye for the 50/50 ball in the endzone, giving the Panthers a 17-10 halftime advantage. That advantage grew to 10 points after Michigan’s first drive of the 2^nd half produced a 50-yard field goal, but Arizona cut it back to only 3 when Brock Osweiler, in for Carr, who suffered a big hit on the first play of the 2^nd half, found Victor Cruz for the score. It was a modest 3-yard pass at the end of a 12-play drive for the Wrangler backup, but it was a big play in that it pulled the Wranglers within 1 score of Michigan.

In the final period, Arizona’s D found its way, limiting Michigan to only 2 first downs in the period and forcing them to go 0 for 3 on third down. Meanwhile, Arizona did what it needed to do, putting together a mid-quarter drive that saw 4 different receivers catch balls from Osweiler before Isaiah Crowell found the endzone a 2^nd time, another 1-yard plunge. Now up 24-20, Arizona locked down the Panthers, forcing them to go for a 4^th and 13 in the game’s final minute. The play failed, the Wrangler fans celebrated, and Arizona advanced.

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HOUSTON GAMBLERS 13  ORLANDO RENEGADES 20

It has been a mystery all season long, and it was a mystery in this game as well. How can the Renegades keep winning games when their QB is the most prolific interception producer in the league this year. Russell Wilson threw a whopping 25 picks in the 2021 regular season, and Houston snagged another 3 in this game, and yet, despite the miscues and bad decisions, Wilson found a way to win the game in the 4^th, putting together a go-ahead drive in the early minutes of the quarter, and then a field goal drive to secure the win in the final 3 minutes.

It certainly was not a pretty game for the Renegades, but it did what needed to be done, survive and advance. Where Orlando did excel was on defense, containing Houston’s explosive offense and limiting Houston to a lone offensive TD, a Carlos Hyde 3-yard run in the 1^st quarter. After that it was field goals alone for the Gamblers, with Colt McCoy unable to find the endzone and no Houston receiver going over 55-yards receiving. The Renegades forced Houston to dink and dunk on long drives and more times than not the Gamblers could not sustain the drive.

Brett Perriman was without doubt the star of the game and largely took over after Orlando TE David Njoku was injured on his first and only reception of the game. Njoku suffered a leg injury, later diagnosed as a partially torn quad, early in the game, and without that safety blanket, Wilson pressed, producing the 3 picks. But Perriman was there in a big way, catching 10 of 11 targets for 139 yards and both Orlando touchdowns. The Renegades will need more from him and more from others like HB Chris Carson and WR Hunter Renfrew, if they are going to go into Birmingham next week and get a W.

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OHIO GLORY 13  CHICAGO MACHINE 26

The final game of the weekend, like the first, was a divisional showdown, with upstart Ohio taking on the Central Division Champion Chicago Machine. The game proved to be one of the more one-sided affairs of the week as Chicago did as they had done in both regular season outings, forcing Ohio’s rookie QB Justin Fields to stay in the pocket instead of sprinting free, and forcing him to throw into an ever-changing array of zone coverages. The result was only 7 yards rushing for the dual threat QB, and a reasonable, but not sufficient passing line of 21 of 38 for 207 yards with a TD and a pick.

On offense, Chicago found great balance, rushing for 123 yards, with Marion Mack’s inside game leading the way with 51 yards and a TD. Rookie Tony Jones Jr also scored and added 32 yards on only 4 touches. Meanwhile, Sam Bradford was untouched, no sacks, in the game, and the outstanding play of the Chicago line allowed him to complete 25 of 33 throws, racking up 270 yards and a very nice 24-yard strike to his new favorite receiver, Chase Claypool.

Chicago scored the first points of the game, expanded to a 10-0 lead in the first, and never trailed as they kept Ohio at arm’s length all game and limited the Glory to a lone TD in the game. The Machine now head on the road in a very intriguing 3 vs. 2 matchup as they travel to Denver to face the Gold at Empower Field.

Chicago Mixes it Up to Keep Ohio on the Back Foot

The Chicago offense was unpredictable and consistent at the same time on Sunday. Unpredictable in that Ohio never really seemed to know where the ball was going. The Machine used 4 different backs on running plays, including 5 carries for FB Jakob Johnson. Sam Bradford threw to 7 different receivers, with TE Tyler Eifert leading all receivers with 110 yards receiving (including a rumbling bumbling 56-yarder that would have made Keith Jackson proud—the announcer and the Hall of Fame Tight End too.) Chase Claypool also had 8 catches for 82 and a score, while Bradford did what few quarterbacks do these days, staying upright the entire game. Ohio depended on pressure from their front 4, concerned that blitzes would expose their defense to quick hitting throws, but the front 4 simply could not get enough pressure on Bradford, who completed 75.8% of his throws, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. It was a solid, diverse, and effective game plan, one Chicago hopes they can repeat against a more aggressive Denver Gold defense, with rookie sensation Odafe Oweh hoping he can get Bradford’s jersey considerably dirtier.

Takeaways the Key to Generals’ Win

Typically, when you see a scoreline in which one team controlled the ball for 39:49 of 60 minutes, had 14 more first downs and nearly 100 more offensive yards, you expect that the more dominant team got the W. But, when you also see that the turnover battle went 3-0 the other way, well, then you may have a surprise on your hands, and that is exactly what the Generals-Stars game produced. Stars fans, nearly 55,000 of them at the Linc, had to be frustrated by an offense that moved the ball well, but far too often either settled for a short field goal or gave the ball away. Carson Wentz had 2 picks, including the late game pick-six that locked up the W for the visiting Generals. Marcus Lattimore, often used as a change of pace for Derek Henry, coughed the ball up on his 4^th carry of the game, and that would be his last touch of the day.

New Jersey was outgained, could not sustain drives, performed horribly on 3^rd down (1 of 10) and only saw their QB throw for 182 yards, but they protected the ball and took advantage of Philly mistakes, scoring, obviously, on the pick-six, but also putting up 3 points after the Lattimore fumble, a 10-point swing that would have made the game a lot closer had it not benefitted the Generals. For many, the only way New Jersey has a chance to upset Tampa Bay next week is to turn that takeaway machine up to 11, no easy task against a very dangerous Bandit offense.

Carr Cleared for Divisional Matchup in Seattle

After being knocked out of the game against Michigan by a head hit with the turf, David Carr has cleared the concussion protocol and has been cleared to start when the Wranglers head up to Seattle for the 2^nd time in a month to face the Dragons. While Brock Osweiler has played well in relief, pretty much everyone believes that Arizona’s chance to get the upset of the West’s 1 seed depends on Carr being 100%.

Arizona fell to Seattle 18-17 just 2 weeks ago in a Week 16 clash. Now the two face off again, with the loser sent home and the victor headed to the Western Conference Championship. And while Carr avoided an injury designation by getting clearance on Tuesday, the Wranglers are not without injury concerns, starting with LB A. J. Klien, who could be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury. Another potential concern is WR DeMarcus Robinson, 2^nd on the team with 1,204 yards receiving, and part of a dynamic duo with Victor Cruz that saw both receivers top 1,200 yards and combine for 21 touchdowns. Robinson is the go-to guy in the red zone, leading the team with 12 touchdowns, but he is listed as doubtful after aggravating a neck injury that he suffered in Week 17. It is a muscular issue, but one that could very much his ability to go on Sunday, and Arizona knows they need all hands on deck if they are going to get a win in Seattle against the favored Dragons.

Orlando Loses Njoku in Bittersweet Win over Houston

The game went Orlando’s way, with a 4^th quarter TD giving the ‘Gades a lead they would not relinquish, but not everything was champagne and high fives. Early in the game, after only 1 catch, star tight end David Njoku suffered a torn quad that will keep him out of action for the duration of the 2021 playoffs. Njoku, who finished the year with 74 receptions for 766 yards and 7 touchdowns, has been a key producer for the Renegade offense, and certainly a security blanket for QB Russell Wilson. His absence will take away a key weapon in a somewhat limited Orlando offense. Njoku suffered the injury in Renegades’ second drive, coming up lame after making a short 4-yard catch. It was a non-contact injury, which can often be the scariest kind, and in this case, it will require several weeks before he would be able to play again, far too long in a short postseason. The pressure will now be on Chris Herndon, who had only 7 receptions all season, to step up and offer an option for Wilson when the outside receivers are covered. That is a huge drop off in experience and talent, and one that could make life tough for an Orlando team that rarely has a wide margin for victory.

We have already updated you on a few key injury issues. Here is our quick breakdown of the full injury list for each team as we prepare for the Divisional Playoff Round in just a few days.

NJ: T D. Stephenson (IR), QB T. Bridgewater (IR), DE K. Ealy (Q), LB M. Milano (Q)

TBY: DT Kawann Short (IR), C Frank Ragnow (Q)

Short’s injury could be an issue for the Bandits if New Jersey can use their 1-2 halfback punch to secure solid inside runs, freeing up potential play action for Foles. But New Jersey also has issues on defense, with the absence of Kony Ealy and MLB Matt Milano making New Jersey less capable of putting pressure on Dak Prescott at a time when you need to be able to pressure the former MVP.

CHI: G N. Allegretti (Q), DE J. Pierre-Paul (Q), CB J. Verritt (P)

DEN: LB J. Houston (IR), FB W. Nelson (Out), HB J. Ward (P)

No major issues for Denver, while Michigan is hoping that all three of their injured players are able to suit up. Losing Jason Pierre-Paul would certainly force Michigan to blitz more than they are accustomed to, while offering Denver a chance to potentially give Josh Allen time for some deeper throws.

ORL: TE D. Njoku (IR), DT E. Ferguson (IR), SS R. Grant (IR), G A. Silatulo (D)

BIR: T G. Robinson (Q)

The Stallions are the healthiest team in the field this week, with the obvious upside being the return of Cam Newton after more than a month of inactivity. For Orlando, the loss of Njoku is huge, but not having Silatulo inside could also impact the Renegade offense, and not in a way that Russell Wilson or Chris Carson will want to see.

ARZ: T M. Van Dyck (IR), CB J. Harris (IR), L A. J. Klien (D), WR D. Robinson (D)

SEA: WR J. Brown (IR), T E. Fisher (Out), DE D. Hall (Q)

Arizona breathed a sigh of relief when David Karr was cleared, but without DeMarcus Robinson, they are without one of his best targets. Losing Klien is also an issue for a Wrangler defense that needs to contain Knowshon Moreno. For Seattle, Erick Fisher’s absence will mean that Ezra Cleveland, the 2^nd year backup, will be asked to take on Bud DuPree. How is that for a thought to keep you up at night?

Coaching Roundup

Just a week after Black Monday and the interview circus has begun. Here are the early stories of teams seeking the right man and coaches seeking the right opportunity.

Jim Harbaugh Takes Meetings with Charlotte, Jacksonville & Portland

No shocker here. We all knew that former Stars’ coach, who many feel was a shocking dismissal last year, would be one of the hottest prospects in the coaching field. No surprise then that he has already met with two teams, the Monarchs and Bulls, and has a trip to Portland up next. Harbaugh, who won two Eastern Conference Titles and took the Stars to the playoffs consistently before last year’s horrendous 2-14 crash, is highly respected around the league, considered one of the best schemers in the game, and could well be a good fit for any of the three teams already visited. Of course, the question is, with each of these teams looking like a major roster overhaul is on tap, do any of the jobs appeal to the veteran coach? Perhaps dangling some GM duties in front of Harbaugh will be enough, but if he is going to turn one into a winner, which has the best skeleton to build on?

Vrabel “Meets” with Jacksonville & San Diego During Bye

Another pretty obvious move was for the Jacksonville Bulls to reach out to their former All-USFL linebacker turned hot coaching prospect. The Seattle DC is absolutely a target for the Bulls, using his bye week to visit (virtually) with both his former team the San Diego Thunder. While a deal for the Dragon DC is not possible before Seattle finishes their playoff run, the bye week does permit some phone and zoom meetings with the candidate. From Seattle, Vrabel was able to meet with the two clubs while still preparing his defense for a divisional matchup. Expect Vrabel’s name to be back in the news as soon as Seattle’s post-season is finished, though we know he certainly hopes that particular moment can be as delayed as possible.

Charlotte Interviews LaFleur & Daboll

It appears that Charlotte is locked in on getting an offensive-minded coach, and one with some QB development credentials. In their first official week on the search (though we suspect they have been exploring options for quite a while), Charlotte flew both former Stag head coach Brian LaFleur and Oklahoma OC Brian Daboll to the Queen City for in person meetings this week. Daboll, credited for the 2021 success of Outlaw QB Jalen Hurts, would be looking at his first head coaching job after building a reputation as an innovative play caller in Oklahoma and, before that, in New Orleans. LaFleur had some success in Portland but struggled to get consistent play (and health) from Marcus Mariota. He too is seen as an innovative offensive coach, though we suspect that he is more likely a hire if Charlotte has their eyes on a veteran QB and not a rookie who will be thrown to the lions in 2022.

Houston Expected to Promote from Within

The Gamblers, who are not speaking with the media about a new coach while they are still watching Wade Phillips lead the team, now, after their loss in Orlando, are going to be fielding a lot of questions about the successor to their legendary coach. While they certainly will explore their options, and while their position with a playoff-caliber team will absolutely make the job a desirable one for any coach in the market, the general expectation among those with insight within the building is that Houston is more than likely to promote from within. The only real question is whether they will lean towards OC Zach Taylor or try to keep their young phenom in the OC slot while promoting defensive coordinator Ted Cotrell.

Cotrell certainly has seniority, both with his 9 seasons working under Phillips, and as a 73-year-old, compared with the practically juvenile 37-year-old Taylor. Many speculate that if the Gamblers can retain Taylor with a more lucrative OC contract, they will promote Cotrell to take on the head coaching tasks as he is certainly very familiar with the way Phillips guided, prepared, and motivated the Gambler players, creating a smooth transition and one that would retain the two key coordinators, though Cotrell likely would hand over the DC playcalling duties to current LB coach Ted Pagano.

ESPN & EFN to Rework Deal with USFL

The word out of Bristol is that it is time for the training wheels to come off. Despite the success of the dual broadcast of USFL night games on both ESPN and EFN, it appears that the sports network is hoping to provide EFN with its own weekly game and a chance to expand into streaming in 2022. ESPN is expected to set up the ESPN Football Network as the exclusive home for its 2022 Friday night games and to offer fans a streaming service through EFN that would allow for online viewing of all ESPN, EFN, and ABC games, roughly 7 of the 15 USFL games each week. With FOX and NBC already streaming their live broadcasts through monthly streaming services, the EFN+ system that ESPN is hoping to expand this year could become yet another monthly charge for USFL fans. What makes the EFN deal very different from the NFL’s Sunday Ticket is the scheduling in the USFL, which allows for 11 of 15 games (in non-bye weeks) to receive national broadcasts. There is no cluster of Sunday afternoon games with regional broadcasts as you see in the fall. That, in part, is due to the spring and summer schedule of the USFL, which has allowed them to occupy Friday nights as well as Saturday, with no competition from high school or college football.

While streaming is certainly catching up with standard television viewing among sports fans, the reality that any fan with a solid cable, satellite, or online package such as Amazon Prime or Youtube TV can already receive the live broadcasts on their phones, tablets, and computers, we have seen growth in services like Peacock (NBC), Fox One, and Hulu (covering ABC content) as alternative viewing options. What ESPN, through the EFN network, are proposing is both a streaming hub that would allow for everything from unlimited memory for replays, team-specific channels, and alternative broadcasts. The hope, of course, is to capture those eyes that are already dropping cable and satellite television and expanding viewership across both broadcast and streaming platforms to expand revenue. For fans, what it offers is an alternative, but one which may only appeal to those who are hard core followers of the USFL since nearly every game each week is already available both online and through broadcast media.

Four playoff games completed, four more on tap. As we move into the 2^nd round of the USFL postseason the action moves to the home stadiums of the top two teams in each division. Will we come out of this week with a pair of 1 v. 2 battles on tap for the Conference Title Games, or will we see upsets keep some of the Wild Card participants in the mix? Here is our look at each of the upcoming Divisional games and our analysis of the odds for an upset.

3-Chicago Machine (11-5) @ 2-Denver Gold (12-4)

Saturday, July 31 @ 3pm ET

Empower Field, Denver, CO

Gold -4

The Machine come into this one after a solid defensive performance kept Justin Fields in check. Can they do the same against a very different quarterback in Josh Allen? Allen had what could be an MVP season, throwing for 4,473 yards and 37 touchdowns as he led an undervalued Denver team to the SW Division title. Denver’s issue is that while Allen, Golden Tate, and former Bandit Darnell Mooney have had outstanding seasons, the Denver run game has been somewhat underwhelming. Phillip Lindsay averaged only 2.7 YPC this season and was still the lead rusher by over 500 yards. If Denver wants to keep the Machine off Allen, they will need a viable rush threat. As for Chicago, the balance they showed against Ohio has to be the key to keeping Odafe Oweh and Justice Cole (33 combined sacks) from shattering Sam Bradford’s day. That means they too need to show a strong run game.

OUR PICK: We see Chicago as a viable upset option this week. They have offensive balance, which keeps Denver from teeing off on their QB, and they have the league’s top scoring defense, allowing only 14.6 points per game. We think Denver challenges them and will put up more than their average, but we believe the combination of tenacious and disciplined D and a more structured offense can overcome the sheer playmaking ability of Josh Allen. We are going Chicago in this one. Machine 24, Gold 21. 

6-New Jersey Generals (9-7) @ 1-Tampa Bay Bandits (14-2)

Saturday, July 31 @ 7pm ET

Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Bandits -8 ½

The Generals got a measure of revenge against Philadelphia this week, but we don’t see a lot of paths forward as they now have to head to the Gulf Coast to face one of the defending champions with the best chance of repeating we have seen in the past 20 years. Tampa Bay has looked and felt like a juggernaut for a good part of the season. But, here is the thing. The Bandits’ first loss was at the hands of the Generals, a shocking 30-16 showing in Tampa just before their bye. New Jersey, in that game, put up 161 yards rushing and Nick Foles did not turn the ball over. They will need that kind of production to have a shot here, because unlike Week 8, there is no chance this is a “looking ahead” trap game for the well-rested, and very motivated Bandits.

OUR PICK: We just don’t see it. We don’t see New Jersey repeating their midseason performance and knocking Tampa Bay off again. The Week 8 game was played without Dak Prescott, and that alone has us thinking that the Bandits will put on a very different game this time. We are going with the defending champs, by a pretty healthy margin: Tampa Bay 28, New Jersey 17. 

4-Orlando Renegades (11-5) @ 2-Birmingham Stallions (11-5)

Sunday, August 1 @2pm ET

Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL

Stallions -4 ½

The Stallions welcome back Cam Newton, which has to make Orlando nervous. Tim Tebow has been phenomenal in relief, but he is not the threat that Newton can be. Newton’s size and speed have the potential to minimize the impact of the league’s co-leader in sacks, Montez Sweat. And yet, if Birmingham is overdependent on their quarterback, they can be susceptible to a let down. They need to see more from rookie HB Najee Harris to keep Orlando honest on defense. As for Orlando on offense, we all know the issue. They need a clean game from Russell Wilson. They escaped against Houston despite three Wilson picks. They cannot expect to do the same against Birmingham.

OUR PICK: We like the Stallions at home. They will have a large and loud fanbase behind them. They are well rested. Their All-USFL quarterback is ready to go, and they are facing a team that was inconsistent on offense even when winning games with their pass rush. We think Newton finds a way to offset Montez Sweat’s impact, and that gives the Stallions a ticket to the next round. Birmingham 24  Orlando 16

4-Arizona Wranglers (10-6) @ 1-Seattle Dragons (13-3)

Sunday, August 1 @ 6pm ET

Lumen Field, Seattle, WA

Dragons -3

Seattle may well be feeling disrespected by the Vegas line of only 3, but that tells us that the public is also nervous about the upstart Dragons as they face a team that has been to the Summer Bowl more in the past decade than the Dragons have been to the playoffs in the past 20 years. Seattle is certainly a talented team, and if they can get Knowshon Moreno some success early, that will make Amari Cooper, Marshall Newhouse, and 1,000-yard TE Kyle Rudolph all the more dangerous. Arizona for their part, and likely without DeMarcus Robinson, will again likely be focused on the big play. They have a playmaker in Victor Cruz, but will need either Brandon Aiyuk or TE Robert Tonyan to step up, otherwise the Dragons will blanket Cruz and force Arizona to work their way down the field slowly.

OUR PICK: If the Wranglers had Robinson available, they would pose a real threat to the Dragon secondary, but with Cruz as their only proven deep threat, we think Seattle will force them to sustain long drives, which has not been a strength of the Wranglers this year. We think Arizona will focus on Moreno, but that could well make life just a bit easier for Brett Hundley, who has been quietly efficient all year, completing 68.9% of his throws. The greater variety of options for Seattle on offense cause us to favor the less experienced Dragons, though we think they will need to earn it in a close one.  Seattle 26, Arizona 24.