After sixteen weeks of battles we start all over again. Twenty teams are now down to ten, and soon there will be two, fighting for a chance to be called “Champions”. Will it be a repeat performance for the Washington Federals, winners of the Atlantic Division? A return to glory for the Houston Gamblers or New Jersey Generals? Will the upstart Portland Thunder or Pittsburgh Maulers go all the way? Or will it be a perennial also-ran like Oakland or New Orleans? And what about our two surprise #1 seeds, Orlando and Texas? Are they ready for the bright lights and intense scrutiny of the USFL playoffs? We will find out soon as the playoffs begin this week. We will take a look at all 10 teams and then preview this week’s Wild Card matchups as we gear up for playoff football.
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Every team, even the top seeds, come into the playoffs knowing that they have gaps in their roster, areas of concern, or potential weaknesses their opponents will try to exploit. They also know that they are here because they have talent and the will to win, so what are the options for each team. Let’s start by looking at the team rankings in seven key categories: Points Scored, Rushing ,Passing, Points Allowed, Pass Defense, Rush Defense, and Turnover Margin.
What we see in our rankings is that we really have three types of teams in the playoffs this year. We have offensive Juggernauts like the league’s top offense, Texas, who rely on outscoring opponents to win games. This group also includes Jacksonville, with their potent passing attack. For these teams, defensive weaknesses are covered up by their high-powered attacks. On the other end of the spectrum we find teams that rely on their defenses to pull out games. Houston and Washington fall into this group. And then we have balanced teams, some who are at or near the top in both key offensive and defensive categories, such as New Orleans and Orlando, while others are balanced across the board but not particularly strong in any one area, such as Pittsburgh, Oakland, or New Jersey.
Looking only at statistics, we would have to give good odds on both Orlando and New Orleans, who can win with either strong offensive or defensive performances. The stats also cast some doubts on both Portland and Pittsburgh, who have few Top 5 rankings to boast of. We also can see the keys to stopping some of the league’s top teams. To defeat Washington, you want to run the ball well and slow down the Federals’ run game. For Texas it is all about the passing game. If you can slow down Stouffer, Carson and Metcalf, you might just outpace the rest of the Texas offense. You want to force Jacksonville to run the ball, and you want to pound the ball against Portland’s poor rush defense. Against New Jersey and New Orleans you want to avoid the costly turnovers that they feed on, while against Oakland and Pittsburgh, you want to stress takeaways as a way to shut down their offenses.
Statistics give us great insight into each team’s strengths and weaknesses, but it cannot show us everything. As we see every year, there are teams that are peaking at the right time, while others were at their best early in the year and have backed their way in based on that early season performance. Looking at recent weeks, we have to put New Jersey, Houston, Orlando, Pittsburgh and New Orleans in the first group, teams whose last 4-5 weeks have been very solid. And while we do not have any teams that have been in full backslide in the playoffs (Birmingham and Michigan both played themselves right out of postseason contention), we are concerned about recent losses by Texas (2 in division to end the year) as an indicator of their mindset.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Every team has their superstars, but it is often lesser known players who will make the difference for each team. As we look at the ten teams competing in the USFL postseason, we look for those lesser-known diamonds in the rough who could come up big for each team.
PITTSBURGH: John Bosa-DE. Very quietly Bosa had a very good year. He racked up 12 sacks and 2 forced fumbles as Pittsburgh’s best pass rusher. If he can get to opposing QB’s in the postseason, he can help a Pittsburgh D that at times struggles to contain their opponents.
HOUSTON: With everyone looking at Thurman Thomas, don’t be surprised if change-of-pace back Keith Woodside has a shot to be a hero. He actually averages more per carry than Thomas, though certainly on fewer carries. His power rushes are a solid alternative if teams are too focused on the ALL-USFL Thomas.
PORTLAND: The Thunder defense does not get a lot of positive press, and when you are ranked dead last against the run, it is understandable. But, despite those issues, LB Bobby Houston is a threat any time ball carriers or receivers head his way. He racked up 104 tackles this year, and can run sideline to sideline.
NEW JERSEY: With all eyes on rookie sensation Phil Hansen and his league record 23 sacks, we should not forget that his fellow DE, Gary Jeter, snagged 12 sacks himself. If you overcompensate for Hansen, you are likely to find Jeter coming off the other edge.
NEW ORLEANS: The Breakers defense is so good because it is not all about one star. They have no players whose numbers pop off the page, but if you look closely you will see that CB Terry Daniels has quietly been one of the most effective at separating a receiver from the ball. He has 26 pass defenses, and while only 2 of those turned into interceptions, there are plenty of ruined 3rd down attempts in that number.
JACKSONVILLE: We all know how dangerous the combo of Brian Blades, Hassan Jones, and Weegie Thompson are when Tony Eason is on his game, but were you aware that behind Blades, the #2 touchdown scorer was actually third year TE Steve Johnson. With only 34 receptions he is not likely to make an All-USFL team, but his 9 TD’s this year were huge for the Bulls.
OAKLAND: LB Ken Harvey got all the press out in Oakland with his Defensive POTY-worthy 116 tackles, but do not sleep on his squad-mate, Ron Rivera. Rivera had a solid 82 tackles, but also proved to be an effective blitzer, snagging 5 sacks on the season along with 16 tackles for loss.
WASHINGTON: If I told you that Birmingham led all teams in rushing yards, you would believe it, what with Cribbs and Fullwood it makes sense. But when you see that it was Washington, not New Jersey or Pittsburgh, that had the second best rushing attack, you would be shocked. The balance between former FB Barry Word (226 carries for 900 yards) and Kevin Harmon (210 carries for 710 yards) meant that neither broke the 1,000 yard mark, but they combined for more than any other combo this year aside from Cribbs and Fullwood.
TEXAS: Yes, Carlos Carson is likely to win Offensive POTY for his very close pursuit of 2,000 yards receiving, and Eric Metcalf was a monster with 1260 yards himself, but, as with Jacksonville, there is a sneaky TE in the mix. Theo Young had 57 catches on the year, and was a favorite of Kelly Stouffer in the red zone, catching 11 touchdowns.
ORLANDO: Rueben Davis got most of the press as he chased Phil Hansen all year, ending with 18 sacks, but the true defensive MVP for the Renegades may be cornerback Melvin Jenkins. In addition to tying LB Winston Moss for the team lead in tackles with 94, Jenkins also snagged 5 interceptions and had a league-leading 34 pass defenses. That is a player to avoid this postseason.
So what is in store this week? Let’s look at our two matchups.
The Gamblers are the hotter team, and statistically they match up well against the Thunder. Portland’s rush defense is a definite weakness. When they met in Week 2 that defense gave up a stunning 260 yards rushing to Thurman Thomas, and yet, thanks to a 4 TD day from Kerwin Bell, they managed to pull out that game 37-34. That will be a tough feat to repeat. If they cannot contain Thomas, particularly with the way Kelly has been playing down the stretch, they will have a hard time getting the W. Portland needs to make Houston a passing team, focusing on compacting the line to shut down Thomas. They also need to get production from Robert Drummond and Terrance Flagler to take pressure off of Bell. Having just given up over 100 yards to Lars Tate of Denver, and 120 yards to Richard Williams of Oakland the week before, we are not sure Portland’s D has it in them to shut down Thurman Thomas, so we are picking Houston to get the road win and head to face their rivals, the Texas Outlaws, in the Divisional Round.
Run game once again will be on display as the Maulers and Mike Rozier head to the Meadowlands to face New Jersey and Herschel Walker. With Hostetler and Miller at the helms, subbing for injured starters Alan Risher and Doug Flutie, the passing games have not exactly been explosive, so it is all about effective running, play action passing, and avoiding costly turnovers. New Jersey is the best in the league at taking the ball away, while Pittsburgh was one of the worst in the league in creating takeaways. That is definitely an advantage for the homestanding Generals. The Generals also have a Top 5 scoring defense, so Pittsburgh is going to have to hope for a low-scoring game and hope they can catch a break or two against the Generals D. We like New Jersey at home, though we recognize that this is very likely to be a close game and could come down to a last minute drive and the accuracy of either Roger Ruzek or Rafael Septien to decide it.
Let’s get to it! Playoff football!!