We have our 2013 playoff field after an exciting week of play-in games has led to three of four Wild Card positioned teams retaining their spot, while the Baltimore Blitz slide out with a tough loss, creating space for Cam Newton and the Birmingham Stallions to snag the final spot. Baltimore was in a win & in situation, but were sideswiped by a Michigan Panthers team that had nothing to play for. Meanwhile, the Stallions won their rivalry matchup with Memphis, finished the year at 8-8 and jumped over fellow 8-8 squads Baltimore and Orlando thanks to their 8-4 conference record. It was a weird week that saw a lot of backups on the field and which saw 6 of the 12 playoff teams finish the year with a loss. We will run it down, look ahead to Wild Card Weekend, review the heavy toll of Black Monday, and more as we wrap up the 2016 regular season and prepare for the USFL playoffs.
ST. LOUIS SKYHAWKS 13 DENVER GOLD 20
There was one and only one game this week where both teams were on the edge of the playoff field and needed a win to lock up a spot. That game was the Skyhawks at the Gold. If Denver won, they were the 5 seed and St. Louis would be out, unable to attempt a title repeat. If St. Louis won, then they would be alive, and would need only an LA loss to make the dance. So a lot on the line as the two squared off at Invesco Field on a balmy midsummer afternoon in Denver.
It would be a game that was defined by 30 minutes of domination by the Gold. Trailing 3-0 after the first quarter, Denver stepped up on both offense and defense. Between the start of the 2nd quarter and the conclusion of the 3rd, St. louis would manage only 5 first downs, and would never threaten the Denver red zone. On the other hand, the Denver offense scored on 4 of 5 possessions as Matt Leinart found success throwing the ball despite losing Golden Tate early in the 2nd quarter. Leinart would focus his attention on Peerless Price, TE Daniel Graham, and receiving tailback LeMichael James.
Denver’s run to the playoffs began early in the 2nd, when an 11-play drive finished with a flourish as Matt Leinart shook off a potential sack and found Price crossing from right to left in the endzone. He put the ball out in front of the veteran receiver and Price tipped it to himself, securing the ball as he fell out of bounds. The review showed that he had dragged both feet, and Denver took their initial lead at 7-3. The next two Denver drives would also prove fruitful as Greg Zeurlein connected from 30 and 49 yards to give the Gold a 13-3 lead at the half.
While St. Louis was known for offense in last year’s title run, the points have been harder to come by in 2013, and in the game against Denver, even first downs proved difficult. Eddie Lacy was getting yards on first down, and would finish the game with 114 yards rushing, but Josh Freeman was struggling on third downs. The Skyhawks would convert only 2 all day, and in the 2 central periods of the game (2nd and 3rd quarter) they would go only 1 for 6. Skyhawk fans hoped they would come out of the half with a newfound strategy for penetrating Denver’s defense, but their first drive was snuffed out by a Ryan Denney sack on 3rd and 4. Denver would expand their lead on the next possession.
Up by 10, Denver relied on LeMichael James both as a receiver and a rusher. With DeMarco Murray unable to go, it was on the 2nd year back to carry the load. James finished the game with an impressive 5.1 yards per carry, and he would gain 30 of his 92 yards on the drive that put Denver up by 17. On the 14th play of the drive, after having killed off nearly 7 minutes of clock, Leinart again found Peerless Price in the endzone and Denver was fully in control, or so it appeared.
Desperation, and perhaps a bit of overconfidence by the Gold, helped St. Louis get back in the game in the 4th quarter. It began innocently enough, with a herky jerky drive by the Skyhawks fizzling out at the 22. Rob Bironas would put another 3 on the board, but the Skyhawks still trailed by 14. They would need the ball back fast, and would need to score just as quickly.
A nice play on a third and 3 helped St. Louis get the ball back with only 1:42 off the clock, and they did a solid job of moving the ball quickly, but it still took nearly 5 minutes before fullback Jerome Felton took a short swing pass in for 6. Bironas hit the PAT, and with 5:21 still on the clock, St. Louis was now down only by 7. They would eschew the onside kick and kick the ball away to Denver, hoping to get a short field after a defensive stop.
But that stop did not come. Denver put together a drive that included conversions on back to back second downs, and cost the Skyhawks over 3 minutes before a failed third down throw forced Denver to send out Zeurlein for a relatively easy 38-yarder. Call it pressure, or overconfidence, but Zeurlein’s relatively short kick hooked right. St. Louis would get the ball on their own 38, with just over 2 minutes to go. They had the opportunity to tie the game, perhaps even to win it.
Denver was now well aware that their lead had faded and that a stop was needed. On consecutive plays they sent blitzers at Freeman. On 2nd down and 7 they did not reach him, but affected his throw, causing an incompletion. On 3rd and 7 they did get him, with LB Will Overstreet dragging Freeman down 5 yards behind the line. That left St. Louis with a very tough 4th and 12 to keep their drive alive. On 4th down, Denver opted not to blitz, and instead dropped 7 into coverage. Freeman scoured the field looking for an open receiver, but there were none. When the pressure came he had no choice but to scramble. He would be dragged down after gaining only 5 of the 12 yards he needed. The drive, and for St. Louis, the season, was over. Denver would be headed to San Antonio to play a Wild Card game, while the defending champs would return home, finishing the season a very disappointing 8-8 and out of playoff position.
PITTSBURGH 27 NEW JERSEY 24
In what would be the final game for both head coaches, the Maulers got 106 yards from Ronnie Brown and a Victor Cruz touchdown to highlight some of the bright spots on their roster. New Jersey got a solid outing from Maurice Jones-Drew, who has been rumored to be on the trading block. Pittsburgh finishes at 7-9, better than predicted but still not good enough for ownership, while New Jersey finishes 4-12, a huge disappointment which has cost Herm Edwards his position.
MEMPHIS 13 BIRMINGHAM 23
The Stallions needed a win and a loss by either Atlanta or Baltimore to get in. They did their part with Randy Moss catching 7 of 13 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown. The defense performed well, limiting the Memphis run game to only 53 yards and holding Eli Manning to only 15 of 32 passing. After the win, the Stallions would have to wait to see what happened with the Fire and the Blitz to see if they could snag a Wild Card at 8-8.
ORLANDO 19 WASHINGTON 14
Orlando also had a shot at a Wild Card, not knowing the Stallion score, and faced off against a Washington team that had a lot of backups in the game. Deuce McCallister played only a few series, rushing for 39 yards and a score before taking a spot on the bench. For Orlando, Russell Wilson went 23 of 34 for 209 yards and a TD to DeShaun Jackson. The Renegade win would prove not to be enough thanks to Birmingham’s victory, but an 8-8 final record was a step in the right direction.
NASHVILLE 10 NEW ORLEANS 20
New Orleans new a win was needed if they wanted a shot at the 2nd seed, so their starters stayed in against the Cody Pickett led Knights. Brees was not sharp, throwing 2 picks, but the Breakers got TDs from both Matt Forte and Mike Tolbert on their way to a 10-point win. Now, if Charlotte lost, the 2 seed and the bye week would be theirs.
PHILADELPHIA 34 DALLAS 36
A really entertaining game between the Dallas starters and a backup-laden Philadelphia squad. Matt Moore threw for 285 and 4 touchdowns for the Stars, while Jake Locker tried to prove he could be the starter in 2014 with 328 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Star B-squad defense. Rashard Mendenhall also feasted on the backups, with 133 yards on 20 carries. Does it mean much? Not likely, but it left the Dallas fans with a nice memory as they head into the offseason.
ATLANTA 28 TAMPA BAY 36
Atlanta came in with something to play for, Tampa did not, but you could not tell it from the performances. The Bandits ripped through the Fire defense, with Daunte Culpepper throwing for 328 and 4 touchdowns as Tampa Bay put Atlanta’s playoff spot at risk. Vincent Jackson put in his bid for OPOTY with another multiple TD day, three on 8 catches and 107 yards as the Bandits add some tension to the week for Fire fans.
CHARLOTTE 10 LOS ANGELES 20
Two teams that needed a win, Charlotte for a bye week, LA to make the postseason, but it was the Express who had more motivation and who came out on top as a 13-10 game was turned into a 20-10 victory thanks to a pick-six from the LA defense. Late in the 4th, with Charlotte driving to tie or take the lead, Brandon Wheedon made a poor throw and rookie Jamar Taylor made the play of his season, stepping in front of the ball and returning it 67-yards for the score. With the win, the Express locked up the 3rd and final Wild Card in the west and will head to Chicago for playoff football.
MICHIGAN 20 BALTIMORE 13
The scenario was as straightforward as could be. With Birmingham’s earlier win, Baltimore was in the playoffs with a win and out with a loss. So what happened? Well, a turned ankle took out Big Ben in the first quarter and that was all she wrote as Kyle Kolb simply could not muster enough offense for the Blitz. Kirk Cousins threw for 306 yards and LeVeon Bell got the key TD to give Michigan the upset win in Baltimore and knock the Blitz out of the postseason.
HOUSTON 23 JACKSONVILLE 34
The Bulls showed up for interim head coach Jimmie Johnson, with Tim Tebow avoiding the picks and throwing for 3 touchdowns. The defense, which has been just awful all year, gave up yardage (421 total) but did enough to hold Houston at arm’s length. They picked off Matt Hasselbeck twice as Houston withered to a final 7-9 record. The win put Jacksonville in a tie with New Jersey for the worst record in the league at 4-12.
CHICAGO 9 OHIO 26
Brady Quinn and Doug Martin were pulled at the half as Chicago rested several starters against the Glory. Tony Pike got the start for Ohio, and fared pretty well against a Chicago defense that is getting a little thin. Two Isaiah Pead TDs in the 2nd quarter were enough to put Ohio ahead to stay in a game that got them to 8-8, but not into the playoff hunt.
ARIZONA 19 TEXAS 14
Both clubs rested some starters, but Frank Gore used the game as his shot at a rushing title, and with Doug Martin resting in his game, Gore went nuts with 27 carries for 131 yards to snatch the title and very possibly earn himself the league’s MVP title as well. Nick Foles attempted only 17 passes, completing 7 for 101 yards and a score as both teams played a pretty vanilla game plan, seeking to avoid injury and to minimize creating tape that playoff opponents could use against them.
SEATTLE 17 LAS VEGAS 10
A sad end to what had been a very promising season for the Thunder, an end that would lead to a change a the top as the 6-2 start morphed into a miserable 1-7 finish for Las Vegas. Cadillac Williams scored twice and led all rushers with 80 yards as Seattle improved to 6-10 on the year, but this game was all about Las Vegas’s collapse in the season’s second half.
PORTLAND 20 OAKLAND 24
Pat White got the start, as did Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis, and yet Oakland still managed to win their 10th in a row and go into the postseason as the league’s hottest club. White would finish with 321 yards through the air, with Pierre Garçon racking up 8 catches for 122 and a score. Portland got a good game from Jonathan Stewart with 121 yards on 17 carries, but it was just a little too little as the Invaders get win number 13 and now rest easy during their bye.
How the Final Week Shaped the Playoffs
It came down to 7 teams fighting for 4 spots, that was the scenario as of this week. In only one case did we have two of the 7 facing off against each other (St. Louis @ Denver), while the rest of the teams did a lot of scoreboard watching. Going into the weekend 4 clubs were in “win & in” situations, including Denver, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Baltimore. While both of the Western clubs won their games, thus locking into the 5th and 6th seeds, things were a little dicier in the East, where both the Fire and the Blitz lost their final games.
Those losses created space for either Birmingham or Orlando to step in and swap spaces with one of the two. Baltimore was the lower seed, so they were most at risk, and when Birmingham defeated their rival, Memphis, the Blitz knew that a loss would cost them a trip to the postseason. Despite that motivation, the Blitz suffered a big blow when Ben Roethlisberger went out of the game with an ankle injury after throwing only 2 passes. That loss led to the greater loss, as the Blitz fell to the Michigan Panthers, which dropped them to 7th and gave Birmingham the edge. Orlando needed Birmingham to lose in order to jump all the way into the 6th slot, but with the Stallion victory, Orlando’s win in the final week was not able to yield a playoff spot for the 8-8 Renegades.
In the end can we say that the best 2 teams of the four 8-8 squads made the cut? That is impossible to say. We will see how Atlanta fairs in Washington and how Birmingham handles a trip to Charlotte this week in the Wild Card round. For Baltimore and Orlando, losses by either Wild Card club will make their close-but-no-cigar season sting even a bit more.
Black Monday Takes Heavy Toll
We had a feeling that this would be a busy Black Monday around the USFL. The term, of course, refers to the day after the last games of the season when many teams relieve underperforming coaches from their duties. It is a day dreaded by every coach whose 3-5 year plan has not panned out, and even by veteran coaches with long tenures whose teams have started to slip into mediocrity or worse.
That was certainly the case this year as two of the coaches let go on Monday had tenures of over 10 years with their teams. Following the release of Leslie Frazier by the Jacksonville Bulls in Week 15, this week’s season finales produced 4 more coaching changes, including two longstanding coaches who will now seek to find a new home.
Jim Johnson (Nashville): Johnson, who had coached the Knights since before they left St. Louis for Nashville, was released from his duties on Monday after 19 seasons with the team. While Johnson was never able to win a title with the Knights, year after year he produced solid teams, often grounded in a top 5 defense, that contended for division and league titles. His clubs made the postseason 12 times in his 19 seasons, appearing in the Summer Bowl in 1998, but in recent years, the success has been harder to come by. After 2 consecutive 8-8 seasons, Nashville slipped to 5-11 this year, and that fact, the sense that Johnson was unable to produce a winner despite the arrival of NFL legend Peyton Manning, and a lifetime playoff record of 5-12 spelled trouble for the respected coach. Nashville will move into a rebuilding phase this offseason, with Manning’s situation uncertain and a new identity needed. Johnson is expected to be a contender for several positions, either as a defensive coordinator or once again as a head coach.
Dick LeBeau (Michigan): After 10 seasons in Michigan, another defensive-minded coach was let go after a disappointing season. LeBeau has been the main man for the Panthers since 2004, leading Michigan to the postseason 5 times and winning a league title in 2008. But, since that title year the Panthers have slipped from regular contention to mediocrity, dropping from 11-5 to 8-8, then 6-10 last year, and again 6-10 this season. LeBeau has struggled to put together a defense that could fully execute his concepts, and Michigan hemorrhaged defensive players each offseason, leading to a team that had trouble on that side of the ball far more than with their offense led by a rookie HB and a 2nd year QB. Will LeBeau get another head coaching gig right out of the gate? He does have a league title under his belt. If not, we certainly think a DC position will be available somewhere across the two major pro leagues.
Herm Edwards (New Jersey): 2012 was so promising for Edwards. His Generals jumped from 6-10 the year before to 12-4, won a Wild Card game, and seemed poised for a strong season in 2013. But those expectations have come back to bite Edwards. With the loss of QB Sam Bradford to injury in the second week of the season, expectations for the Generals were lowered, but even with an uncertain QB position, the team was expected to finish no worse than 4th in the NE Division, and certainly to be hovering around .500 just on the strength of their roster. What fans got instead was a team that could barely reach 14 points a game, failing to surpass 10 points in 6 games, and which finished dead last in scoring and yardage. What was worse, a pretty solid 2012 defense seemed to fall apart in 2013, finishing 27th out of 28 teams in yardage allowed, and giving up nearly 24 points per game. The utter collapse of the team this year was too much for ownership to handle, and Edwards was removed as head coach one day after the team suffered their 12th and final defeat of the season, though many argue that Edwards’s position was truly lost in Week 15, when the Generals absolutely failed to show up in an ugly 33-0 defeat in Chicago.
June Jones (Las Vegas): Another story of high expectations crashing down and taking the head coach with them. Las Vegas began the year 6-2, then lost 7 of 8 in the second half, their offense also failing to provide adequate support to an overtaxed defense. The Thunder dropped the last 6 games of the season, falling from 7-3 to 7-9 along the way and from first place to 4th in the Pacific Division. Some expected the team to release the two coordinators and allow Jones a chance to build again, after all, we are dealing with an interim leadership team on a club that is being run by the league until a buyer can be vetted. But, it appears that the collapse of the Thunder over the season’s second half, and the belief that any new ownership would want to start fresh, was enough for the current management team to release Jones and seek out a new direction.
Playoff Coordinators Top List of Coaching Candidates
With five coaching spots open, there will certainly be a scramble for top talent to take the helm in Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Michigan, Nashville, and New Jersey. Among the top candidates for positions on these five teams will be several coordinators who are at the helms of playoff squads. In most cases, it is impossible to meet with these coordinators until their team’s playoff runs are over, but there is an exception for the 4 teams that have byes this week. So, who might be doing some phone and on-site interviews this week?
Top of the list has to be Arizona’s Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio. Yes, Jim Tomsula is also a defensive mind, and he crafted the Wrangler’s league best defense alongside Fangio, but as anyone knows, it is the coordinator who is there with the players every practice, every rep, and also the man who makes the gameday play calls. Fangio has excelled with the Wranglers this year, and is getting a lot of the credit for Arizona’s success. As the Wranglers take some well-earned down time, we can expect Fangio to get some visits, especially from teams that see a need for a more coordinated and more effective defense, teams like New Jersey, Jacksonville, or Michigan.
Another hot name among playoff coordinators is Oakland offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave. The former USFL and NFL quarterback has helped Joey Harrington have one of his best seasons ever, and has also developed Ryan Williams into a legitimate offensive weapon. Musgrave is perhaps best at creating uncomfortable matchups for the defense, putting his players into mismatches through alignments and shifts pre-snap. Those are skill sets that can help even mid-tier players have upper tier success. This could make Musgrave very popular with teams that have some offensive talent but have been unable to put the pieces together, teams like the Bulls, Thunder, and Knights.
The other OC who is getting a lot of praise across the league is Philadelphia’s Greg Roman. Roman helped turn Matt Gutierrez from a benchwarmer into an MVP candidate in 2012 and this season, he has helped keep Philadelphia atop the conference despite the injury to HB Steve Slaton. Roman is considered a master of innovative playcalling, confusing defenses with odd formations and using players in innovative ways. We know that Nashville is interested in him, but we expect he will also get some calls from other squads as well.
The last of the coordinators who is on everyone’s lips will not be available to interview this week. That is Washington DC Rex Ryan. Ryan, the sun of former USFL coach Buddy Ryan, had a short stint as Head Coach of the Ravens, but in recent years has found success as a DC in Philadelphia. Known for his aggressive front seven play, and in many ways the same fiery disposition as his father, Ryan is deep in playoff prep right now, but would be available once Washington’s playoff run is over.
Outside of current USFL coordinators, there are a couple of names that have been floated around. Both are former NFL head coaches who were relieved of duty after the 2012 season and have not yet latched on to another NFL team. We are speaking of former Outlaws Head Coach and more recently the HC in San Diego, Norv Turner, and former Chicago Bears’ Head Coach Lovie Smith. Both have been seen as victims of circumstance and are still very much respected around both leagues. Finally, we should mention that both Jim Johnson and Dick LeBeau, who both had great success earlier in their USFL careers with Michigan and Nashville, could well be quickly snatched up by teams that would be happy to reach the playoffs as frequently as these two teams had under Johnson and LeBeau.
It took until the final week of the season, but we finally have all 12 playoff spots accounted for. Baltimore was the only team in playoff position after Week 15 to slide out, and that benefited Birmingham, who snagged the 6th seed in the East. All 11 other teams held their ground. So, what do we have?
We have Philadelphia and New Orleans as the 1 and 2 seeds in the East, both earning byes this week. Arizona and Oakland had already locked up 1 and 2 in the West, and they too will gladly accept a week of rest. The other 8 teams will be in action this week, with Wild Card games taking place in Charlotte, Washington, Chicago, and Texas. The Monarchs will host the Stallions in a 3 v. 6 matchup. Washington, as the 4-seed and best Wild Card club, will host Atlanta in the other Eastern matchup. In the West, it will be the 3-seed Chicago Machine hosting the 6-seed LA Express while the 4 and 5 seeds, Texas and Denver, face off in San Antonio.
As we head into the Wild Card round, we will look game by game at each team and how injuries might impact their playoff run.
BIRMINGHAM @ CHARLOTTE
BIR: WR Julian Edelmann (QUE), LB Nico Johnson (PRO), C Matt Tenant (PRO), CB Antonio Cromartie (PRO)
CHA: FS Chris Crocker (OUT), QB Jake Delhomme (OUT)
We are unsure if Julian Edelmann will be active for the game. His absence will impact the offensive schemes Birmingham would implement, likely pushing them to more “standard” sets with 2 wideouts, a tight end and a fullback. As for Charlotte, they have dealt with Jake Delhomme’s absence all season, but losing Chris Crocker could impact both the run defense and the team’s zone schemes. It may also create some opportunities for Cam Newton to have success with his scrambles and called running plays.
DENVER @ TEXAS
DEN: WR Golden Tate (OUT), DT Sione Pouha (OUT), G Matt Slauson (PRO)
TEX: WR Brandon Marshall (OUT), FS Dennis Linkous (OUT)
Golden Tate being out for Denver is a big deal. His pairing with Peerless Price works well because the two complement each other. Now Texas will be able to shift coverage towards Price. Both Texas injuries have been in place for over a month, so the team has already made the adaptations necessary.
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON
ATL: C Robbie Tobeck (QUE), CB Ricky Manning (PRO), LB Dannell Ellerbe (PRO)
WSH: DE Chris Long (OUT), OT Vernon Carey (OUT), QB David Garrard (OUT), DT Corey Liuget (PRO)
Washington is looking a little thin on both lines, especially the D-line if Corey Liuget is not able to suit up. We expect both Manning and Ellerbe to suit up for the Fire, but we are not sure if they will have the same play count as they might ordinarily take on.
LOS ANGELES @ CHICAGO
LA: DE Keneche Udeze (OUT), HB LeRon McClain (OUT), C Alex Mack (OUT)
CHI: DT Ellis Wyms (OUT), LB Brian Urlacher (OUT), OT Ryan Clady (OUT)
Chicago’s woes with Wyms and Urlacher out are well-documented, and now they will also be without their right tackle, which impacts the run game quite a bit. Will this make life tougher for Doug Martin? As for LA, the biggest hit was the loss of Udeze a few weeks back. The pass rush is struggling without him there, but Chicago is unlikely to be a pass-happy offense this week, so perhaps the damage is minimal.
Rating the Playoff Contenders’ Chances
Twelve teams, but only one can be the USFL Champion. Will it be a return to glory for Philadelphia or Washington, a repeat trip for Charlotte, a long-awaited 2nd title for Oakland, or a first time to pour the champagne for the 31-year-old Arizona Wranglers? As anyone who follows the USFL knows, all playoff teams are not the same, we have a 15-1 club that toyed with an unbeaten season for most of the year, and we have a couple of 8-8 clubs who just barely held their heads above water. So who do we think will take the title and who may be happy just to be here? Here is our rundown of the 12 USFL playoff clubs and what we think their chances are.
CONGRATULATIONS, BUT DON’T UNPACK YOUR BAGS
We are going to put two teams in this category, Birmingham and Atlanta. Both hobbled into the postseason on 8-8 records and tiebreakers. Neither has been impressive down the stretch, and both would face a very tough uphill battle. Atlanta starts with the best of the Wild Card teams, the 10-6 Washington Federals. Beating them at RFK would be a major upset. Birmingham has a slightly better task, going to Charlotte to face the 8-7-1 Monarchs, but we saw what Charlotte did last year, so we are not so sure Birmingham will be feeling good about their matchup.
WE CAN SEE A WIN IN ROUND 1 BUT THEN WHAT?
Here we are placing Charlotte and Los Angeles. LA starts on the road at Chicago, and the Machine are vulnerable, so a win could be in the cards, but then they would head off to Arizona, and we think the party would end there. Charlotte is home to Birmingham, which is not an easy matchup, but it is winnable. They then would likely head to New Orleans, again, potentially winnable, but we saw the two battle to a tie only 2 weeks ago, so it is by no means an easy task.
COULD SURPRISE SOME FOLKS
I have three teams in this category, the Breakers, Gold, and Outlaws. As we all focused on Arizona and Philly, these three teams put together pretty solid seasons and have reliable veteran leadership. Drew Brees is benefitting from one of the better defenses he has had in his time with the Breakers. Denver is just not a team that makes a lot of mistakes, forcing you to outplay them rather than counting on them to get in their own way, and Texas has the offensive firepower to take on even top teams like Arizona and Oakland. If any of these three get hot they could not only make it to the Conference Title Game, they could sneak a win in and find themselves at Summer Bowl 2013.
STRONG CONTENDERS
Here we are placing the Oakland Invaders, Chicago Machine, and the Washington Federals. Admitedly we are not feeling Chicago as much as we were a month ago. The defense needs to find a way to compensate for the loss of Brian Urlacher and Ellis Wyms, but this is a very solid team, and if they ended up in a defensive slugfest with either the Invaders or Wranglers, they could surprise us. As for Oakland and the Federals, they are both complete teams, capable of putting points on the board or of holding their opposition down. They both have strong run games, capable quarterbacks, and some pretty solid defensive talent. Would any of us be surprised if one of these two made the Summer Bowl? No. Not really.
THE FAVORITES
Not hard to figure out who this is. Arizona sits at 15-1, the best record in the USFL in over 10 years (not since the 2002 unbeaten Ohio Glory), while Philadelphia, at 12-4, could easily be right there with them. Both clubs have put on displays that have impressed and intimidated. Oddly, neither of these teams tends to blow out their opponents, but that does not mean that they cannot be dominant, especially on defense. Both our bullpen and the Las Vegas book has these two clubs as 1 and 2 in the odds to win it all, with Philadelphia actually favored slightly simply due to experience and a somewhat easier path to the title game.
First 16 Draft Spots Set
Along with the playoff field finally settled, the last week of the season also brings the first look at the draft order for the USFL College Draft. With three teams finishing at 4-12, there is a bit of a muddle at the start of the draft, but conference record settles the tie and so we are ready to reveal the first 16 draft picks, with the remaining 12 decided by the playoff results.
1. Dallas Roughnecks (4-12)
2. New Jersey Generals (4-12)
3. Jacksonville Bulls (4-12)
4. Nashville Knights (5-11)
5. Memphis Showboats (5-11)
6. Michigan Panthers (6-10)
7. Seattle Dragons (6-10)
8. Houston Gamblers (7-9)
9. Las Vegas Thunder (7-9)
10. Tampa Bay Bandits (7-9)
11. Portland Stags (7-9)
12. Pittsburgh Maulers (7-9)
13. Baltimore Blitz (8-8)
14. St. Louis Skyhawks (8-8)
15. Orlando Renegades (8-8)
16. Ohio Glory (8-8)
So it is Dallas on the clock and the big question for Coach Sherman and the Roughnecks is whether or not they trust in Jake Locker to be their QB. He has played 3 years and the results have not been great. If they feel it is time to move on, and if they are not locked into Landry Jones as the solution, they may well be open to trading their 1st overall pick because there are several top QB prospects sitting in the protected pools of several USFL clubs, and swapping an Open Draft pick for the shot to draft one a QB like Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel (TDraft to Houston), Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater (TDraft to Baltimore) or UCF’s Blake Bortles (TDraft to Orlando) could be the move needed to bring a franchise QB to the newly relocated franchise.
As for New Jersey and Jacksonville, neither seems to have QB as the main issue, assuming Sam Bradford can come back and Bulls ownership is still happy to rake in the Tim Tebow merchandise money, so the demand will be elsewhere. Other teams possibly on the hunt for a QB include Nashville (Depending on Manning’s situation), Seattle (if Leftwich’s injury leads to an early retirement) and Las Vegas (if Plummer opts to retire). The other player being viewed as a possible top flight early pick is South Caroline DE Jadaveon Clowney. His rights would be controlled by Orlando, who could try to pair him with Calais Campbell, but that pairing may be too expensive for the Renegades to pull off within the cap space they have, so we might see that T-Draft spot also traded away.
Yes, we are just about 5 months away from the draft, but for fans of these 16 non-playoff teams, the offseason does start right now.
Birmingham Stallions (8-8) @ Charlotte Monarchs (8-7-1)
Saturday, July 6 @ 3pm ET
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte NC
Charlotte -4
We are just not sure about this game. Both clubs can be very inconsistent. Both offenses can come out firing or come out misfiring, so it is nearly impossible to know what we are going to get. Charlotte has won 1 game since Week 11, and the offense has been iffy for most of these late season games. Birmingham has lost 5 of their last 7 and only snuck into the playoffs because they beat a 5-win Memphis squad while Baltimore messed up against Michigan.
If we get early season Cam Newton, throwing the ball to Moss and Owens and scrambling like a stampeding bison, well, then Birmingham can take this. But if Charlotte’s defense steps up, the more consistent offense of Fred Jackson running the ball and Brandon Wheedon using play action could be enough to edge the Stallions.
Our hearts want to see Birmingham explode like they did early in the year, but our heads say that a Charlotte win is more likely simply because they are a less hit or miss team. Our pick is Charlotte to edge this one 18-16.
Denver Gold (10-6) @ Texas Outlaws (10-6)
Saturday, July 6 @ 7pm ET
The Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Texas -2
You have to love a divisional matchup in the playoffs. Denver and Texas are longtime rivals, and this season got the better of the Gold twice in their two matchups, but you know what they say about beating the same team 3 times. The key to this game may well be the running game. Both Arian Foster and DeMarco Murray are capable of big games. The one who busts out in this one could lead his team to a victory in a matchup that the Las Vegas oddsmakers are very indecisive about.
Our pick is Texas for one main reason, we just trust Joe Flacco more than we trust Matt Leinart. It is just that simple. Outlaws take this one 24-21.
Atlanta Fire (8-8) @ Washington Federals (10-6)
Sunday, July 7 @ 1pm ET
RFK Stadium, Washington, DC
Washington -7
The book in Las Vegas has Washington up by a touchdown, but we think it may not be that close. This is a very good Federals team, likely the 2nd best team in the conference, and they are going up against a Fire squad that backed into the playoffs with 2 straight losses. The Fire had a hot streak of 5 wins at midseason, but outside of that, they have not been impressive. They will need a very strong game from Kyle Orton and Steven Jackson to have a shot at an upset here. Meanwhile, Washington can beat you with defense, with their run game, or with Joe Webb putting the ball up for Deion Branch and Bryant Johnson.
We see Washington winning this one big, our guess is 27-14.
Los Angeles Express (9-7) @ Chicago Machine (10-6)
Sunday, July 7 @ 5pm ET
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Chicago -4
Of all the Wild Card games, this one could well be the most likely to produce an upset. Chicago has not been the same team without Urlacher and Wyms in the middle of the defense. Down the stretch they have gone 1-3, which does not inspire confidence. They have decent offensive weapons, especially if they can get Doug Martin rolling, but they are not a prohibitive home favorite by any means.
If there is one word to describe LA it is “inconsistent”. They have good games and bad games, and it is nearly impossible to know which is coming. They did finish the year 3-1, but two of those wins were against Seattle and Dallas, so take that with a grain of salt. Against teams that finished the year with a winning record LA is only 2-3, so we just don’t know what we will get from the Express in this one.
That said, our pick is the upset. We think Chicago’s defense is just not the same and LA has enough weapons to cause some issues for the Machine. We pick LA to win 21-17.