With all the new faces in new places, including four new franchises, this may be the most difficult season to predict since the league first began play in 1983. Every one of the 20 clubs from last year has had to adjust to retirements, expansion losses, and free agency. Four new clubs join the fray, and while we do not expect them to be playoff contenders in their first year, every win they record will have an impact on the teams that are vying for a title. As we look ahead to the 1994 season, uncertainty is the key word. Sure, we expect Birmingham’s Brett Favre to throw for 30+ TDs again. We anticipate that Philadelphia will win with defense, and that both Mike Rozier and Herschel Walker will somehow, despite years of wear and tear on their bodies, find a way to be among the league leaders in rushing. And yet, there is so much unknown, so many new pieces, that little else can be assured. So, what we are saying is that when the 1995 season wraps up, be kind to us about these predictions, because we are throwing darts with our eyes closed here.
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Philadelphia rose to prominence last year in large part due to the general parity found in the Atlantic. Every one of the division’s then 5 teams hovered at or near .500 throughout the season and only in Week 16 did we find out who would be in the playoffs and who would be on the edge looking in. This season should prove very much the same. It is a balanced division with 5 of the 6 teams having real playoff aspirations.
Our Prediction:
Philadelphia 10-6*
Pittsburgh 10-6*
Baltimore 9-7
New Jersey 7-9
Washington 7-9
Ohio 5-11
BALTIMORE BLITZ
Coach: Lindy Infante (57-71)
Top Players: DT William Perry, DT John Randall, SS Dave Dumars, WR Bill Brooks, CB Leslie Frazier
Players Lost: LB Sam Norris, WR Mervyn Fernandez, HB Reggie Brooks, LB Danny Lockett
New Arrivals: WR Rob Moore, OT Korey Stringer, TE Kyle Brady,
Outlook: After 5 straight losing seasons in the Charm City, even an 8-8 finish was celebrated by Blitz fans, but this year they will want more. Coach Infante needs to get this club over the hump. Adding Rob Moore and drafting Kyle Brady should help QB Chris Miller get there. The defense has talent, especially on the inside, but is this a team that can explode on offense or will they need to grind out wins?
NEW JERSEY GENERALS
Coach: Sam Wyche (22-26)
Top Players: HB Herschel Walker, QB Doug Flutie, LB Chris Spielman, CB Kirby Jackson, DE Phil Hanson
Players Lost: QB Oliver Luck, LT William Israel, HB Amp Lee, G Dave Widell, LB John Offerdahl
New Arrivals: QB Tommy Maddox, QB Rob Johnson, WR Darren Flutie, HB Lamont Warren
Outlook: Flutie and Walker, that has been the story for a decade now and likely will be again for the Generals. The defense is legit, but the additions this offseason do not seem to make as much sense as we would like for a team that lost its starting LT and veteran leader in the LB corps. This could be a step-back year for the Generals as they don’t seem to have reloaded this offseason.
OHIO GLORY
Coach: Nick Saban (0-0)
Top Players: TE Chris Kelley, CB Vince Buck, LB John Offerdahl, SS Kyle Kramer, HB Vince Workman
Players Lost: None, expansion club.
New Arrivals: WR Joey Galloway, LB Craig Powell, and NFL HB Earnest Byner
Outlook: Ohio is going to try to build a team around a solid run game and a strong O-line. There have been worse plans in the history of the league. We worry a bit that the defense will take a while to gel, and may not be that good even when it does, but with so many Ohio names on the squad, the Glory should sell tickets even if wins are hard to come by.
PHILADELPHIA STARS
Coach: Raymond Berry (19-13)
Top Players: CB Lorenzo Lynch, WR Cris Carter, QB Chuck Long, SS Marcus Quinn, DE William Fuller
Players Lost: HB Kelvin Bryant, QB Browning Nagle, WR Ernie Jones, HB Bernie Parmalee, G Glenn Howard
New Arrivals: G Mike Wythcombe, QB Will Furrer, WR Alfred Jackson, G Ruben Brown, TE Marcus Pollard
Outlook: A year after becoming the first 3-time champion, the Stars dealt with the retirement of Kelvin Bryant, and the loss of both starting safeties about as well as one could expect. We love the pick of Ruben Brown in the draft, and TE Marcus Pollard could be a contributor as well. The defense came away unscathed from the expansion draft, so expect this to again be a team that leads with stifling D.
PITTSBURGH MAULERS
Coach: Ted Marchibroda (87-73)
Top Players: HB Mike Rozier, DT DanSaleaumua, LB Erik Kumerow, QB Alan Risher, TE Mike Shaw, WR Louis Lipps
Players Lost: QB Jeff Hostetler, WR Mike Pritchard, WR Robert Claiborne, DT Tony Siragusa, SS Kyle Kramer
New Arrivals: WR Yo Murphy, QB Steve Matthews, T Zach Weigert, LB Damien Covington
Outlook: How much longer do Alan Risher and Mike Rozier have? Both are getting a bit long in the tooth, so this year may have a sense of urgency to it. The rookie class is a bit week in immediate help, and the losses of Pritchard, Claiborne, and especially Kyle Kramer will hurt. Pittsburgh could have difficulty returning to the playoffs if these hits prove to be as deep as we imagine them to be.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS
Coach: Sam Rutigliano (81-63)
Top Players: DT Jerome Brown, DE Dexter Manley, QB Don Majkowski, WR Herman Moore, T Ken Lanier
Players Lost: DT Tim Johnson, LB Curtis Taliferro, HB Curvin Richards, C Joel Hilgenberg, DE Antonio Edwards
New Arrivals: DE Bobby Hamilton, TE Demetrius Davis, QB Kordell Stewart, P Todd Sauerbrun
Outlook: Washington seems ready for a transition. The selection and signing of Kordell Stewart seems to show that the team knows this. Don Majkowski has only played in 16 games once in the past 3 years, and only started 8 games last season. If he goes down again, it may simply be a time to transition to the young, athletic Stewart.
SOUTHERN DIVISION
The South still looks like Birmingham’s division to claim. Memphis and Tampa Bay are solid contenders as well, with Orlando, Jacksonville, and expansion Atlanta likely to finish below .500 as they build or rebuild their rosters and their cultures. The Stallions did not lose any major contributors in the offseason, so they are perhaps the team most chosen to repeat as a division champion. Memphis may be in the middle of a QB transition, and Tampa Bay still needs to show that their defense is good enough to allow them to avoid the win-by-shooutout as their only option. As for Orlando and Jacksonville, rebuilding around a new QB is not usually an immediate fix, but a process that takes time. In Atlanta, they are just hoping that the veteran leadership of Cliff Stoudt is enough to help them get off on the right foot as they groom Eric Zeier for the future.
Our Prediction:
Birmingham 12-4*
Tampa Bay 10-6*
Memphis 9-7*
Jacksonville 7-9
Orlando 6-10
Atlanta 4-12
ATLANTA FIRE
Coach: Dan Reeves (0-0)
Top Players: QB Cliff Stoudt, LB John Roper, SS Robert Blackmon, T Eugene Chung, LB Mo Lewis
Players Lost: None, expansion club.
New Arrivals: Top rookies are QB Eric Zeier, CB Tyrone Poole, WR J.T. Thomas
Outlook: Atlanta started accumulating defenders even before the Expansion Draft, and they just kept doing it. Roper, Blackmon, Mraz, Lewis, and Poole form a good defensive corps. Having Cliff Stoudt to guide the offense is also a really shrewd move (assuming he is mobile enough to survive behind a makeshift line). The Fire may not fully hit their stride this year, but they have a chance to be in almost every game if that defense is as good on turf as they seem on paper.
BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS
Coach: Ron Erhardt (35-13)
Top Players: QB Brett Favre, LB Kevin Greene, T Richmond Webb, WR Ernest Givens, TE Shannon Sharpe
Players Lost: HB Brent Fullwood, WR Danny Knight, QB Cliff Stoudt, G Eric Moore, CB Aaron Glenn
New Arrivals: LB Lorenzo Styles, CB Ken Irvin, S Kwamie Lassiter, WR Cedric Tillman
Outlook: Everyone and their uncle picked Birmingham to win it all last year, and nearly as many are picking them this year. They just don’t seem likely to miss the players they have lost, and if preseason means anything, they may have hit on 3 potential starters in the draft this year. It will still be Brett Favre tossing the ball all over the field, but if the defense can improve even a little, that could be all the Stallions need to do.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS
Coach: Jim Fassell (0-0)
Top Players: G Duval Love, WR Brian Blades, CB Domingo Bryant, LB Vaughan Johnson, FS Mark Carrier
Players Lost: LB Mo Lewis, HB Vince Workman, QB Tony Eason, DE Bill Goldberg, WR Robb Thomas
New Arrivals: HB Natrone Means, QB Chris Chandler, DT Reggie Rogers, G Matt O’Dwyer, WR Kez McCorvey
Outlook: Jim Fassell inherits a team that just needs to reinvent itself. Having an NFL pro like Chris Chandler sign on is a good first step in that direction. A power run game led by former Gold big back Natrone Means can also help. The Bulls have talent on defense, enough to be a top 10 squad, and that may be just what Coach Fassel is hoping to see.
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS
Coach: Buddy Ryan (25-23)
Top Players: DE Reggie White, HB Greg Boone, SS Bennie Blades, T Norman Randall, LB Eddie Simmons
Players Lost: WR Vic James, HB Spencer Tillman, DE Santana Dotson, DT David Rocker, TE Tony McGee
New Arrivals: DE Steve Rogers, LB George Bethune, DT Norman Hand, TE Christian Fauria, TE Adrian Cooper
Outlook: QB Mike Kelley did more than enough to hold off rookie Heath Shuler last year, but he is not getting any younger and the calls for Shuler will only get louder if the Memphis offense cannot show improvement this year. The defense will definitely miss DE Santana Dotson and DT David Rocker, though we like the rookie Norman Hand to fill in. The D should still be solid enough to win a lot of games if the offense can keep teams guessing.
ORLANDO RENEGADES
Coach: George O’Leary (4-12)
Top Players: WR Bert Emmanuel, HB Dalton Hilliard, G Dave Cadigan, DE Chris Doleman, DT Tracy Rocker
Players Lost: QB Reggie Collier, WR John Jefferson, DT Greg Meisner, K Mike Hollis, LB J.D. Fuller
New Arrivals: QB Scott Mitchell, WR Danny Knight, K Charlie Baumann, WR Tamarick Vanover, DE Derrick Alexander
Outlook: Orlando was one of the worst teams in recent years last season, and losing their two best players is certainly not viewed as helping the team get better. Coach O’Leary brought in some interesting prospects, not the least of which is QB Scott Mitchell, but if he cannot reignite the culture of winning in the Renegades it could be another long season, something O’Leary cannot afford.
TAMPA BAY BANDITS
Coach: Jerry Glanville (8-8)
Top Players: DT Rollin Putzier, QB Troy Aikman, WR Eric Truvillion, DE Fred Stokes, HB Errict Rhett
Players Lost: HB Eric Bienemy, DE Mark Mraz, TE Chris Kelley, DT Chester McGlockton, FS Terry Hoague
New Arrivals: TE Troy Drayton, DT Chris Maumalanga, LB Keith Traylor, FS Kurt Schulz, HB James Stewart, HB Terrell Fletcher, WR Freddie Solomon
Outlook: 8-8 is not exactly a breakout season, but Coach Glanville brought excitemen to the Bandits by reviving the “Banditball” spirit of aggressive defense and big play offense. Addint solid depth behind Errict Rhett by drafting both Terrell Fletcher and James Stewart could make Tampa’s offense even more dangerous. The D may still be a step behind the offense, but may just be good enough to turn a 35-31 shootout into a 35-21 blowout.
CENTRAL DIVISION
For the first time in a long time there seems to be a challenger to Houston’s dominance in the division. Chicago surprised everyone last year by ousting the Gamblers from the top spot, and their impressive run to the Summer Bowl may be an indication that good things are still to come. We expect Houston to rebound, after a total collapse left them out of the playoffs altogether, but with improved teams in Chicago, Michigan, New Orleans and Texas, it may be a much more competitive division than we have seen in recent years. As the only division without an expansion team, with St. Louis filling the 6th spot, there will be no easy games against new teams on the schedule, so the winner of this division will have run a fierce gauntlet to get there.
Our Prediction:
Houston 10-6*
Chicago 10-6*
Michigan 9-7*
New Orleans 8-8
Texas 7-9
St. Louis 6-10
CHICAGO MACHINE
Coach: Marty Schottenheimer (35-52)
Top Players: HB Ricky Watters, CB Eric Thomas, WR Wendell Davis, DT Kevin Fagan, TE Wessley Walls, QB Scott Zolak
Players Lost: QB Bernie Kosar, T Greg Skrepenak, CB Robert Massey, CB Tyrone Hughes
New Arrivals: CB Tony Collier, DE Mike Mamula, CB Clifton Abraham, TE Tony Cline Jr.
Outlook: Coach Schottenheimer got the most out of his squad last season, winning the division and making it all the way to Birmingham for Summer Bowl 1994. Can the Machine repeat that feat or will having a target on their back make life difficult in Chicago? We like the addition of rookie Mike Mamula to the Machine D, and two additions to the secondary in Collier and Abraham could help make Chicago’s defense elite.
HOUSTON GAMBLERS
Coach: Ray Willsey (48-31)
Top Players: QB Jim Kelly, HB Thurman Thomas, T Howard Ballard, SS LeRoy Butler, LB Fred Strickland, LB Pat Swilling, CB Ashley Ambrose
Players Lost: WR Clarence Verdin, G Mike Wythcombe, TE Keith McKeller, SS Robert Blackmon
New Arrivals: DE Terry Crews, DT Luther Ellis, TE Ken Dilger, WR Antonio Freeman
Outlook: Houston was the surprise of the year last year, but not in a good way. Coach Willsey took a lot of heat for the team’s late season swoon, but with Kelly and Thomas focused on returning to glory, the Gamblers have a great shot to rebound. Their draft produced a solid DT prospect in Ellis, and a possible WR coup in Antonio Freeman, who could crack the starting lineup quickly and help draw attention away from Brett Perriman.
MICHIGAN PANTHERS
Coach: Skip Holtz (8-8)
Top Players: QB Joe Montana, LB Hardy Nickerson, CB Garland Rivers, DE Renaldo Turnbull, SS Carnell Lake
Players Lost: HB Marcus Allen, T Jim Lachey, LB Scott Stephen, WR Terrance Mathis, CB Keith Bostic
New Arrivals: TE Kerry Cash, QB Shawn Moore, LB Ted Johnson, HB Tyrone Wheatley, T Melvin Tuten
Outlook: The Montana and Marcus experiment helped Michigan return to the playoffs, but the trade that sent Marcus Allen to LA is still giving a lot of fans heartburn in the Motor City. Rookie Tyrone Wheatley has a great chance to become the hero for the Panthers that he was for the Wolverines, and LB Ted Johnson also looks like a keeper. A lot may hinge on whether rookie T Melvin Tuten can do anything close to what Jim Lachey had brought to the club.
NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS
Coach: Mike Ditka (6-10)
Top Players: DE Jerry Reese, FS Darren Woodson, CB Gene Atkins, WR Qadry Ismail, LB Lamar Lathon
Players Lost: HB Marcus DuPree, QB Brent Pease, HB Fred Lester, CB Mike Riley
New Arrivals: QB Jamie Martin, S Devin Bush, HB Terrell Davis, DE Gary Walker
Outlook: We have a hard time figuring out the Breakers. Coach Ditka continues to focus his attention on the defense, but it may be the offense that will determine the future of the Breakers. The retirement of Marcus DuPree will need time to overcome, and we are not sure a combo of Erric Pegram and rookie Terrell Davis has what it takes to replace the former Sooner. This could be a year in which the Breakers struggle to stay in games, even if the defense comes together.
ST. LOUIS KNIGHTS
Coach: Jim Johnson (0-0)
Top Players: FB Ironhead Hayward, DT Jerry Ball, WR Rocket Ismail, G Gary Zimmerman, HB Darrell Thompson, LB Chip Banks
Players Lost: WR Eric Martin, TE Frank Wycheck, FS Roman Lewis, LB Bob Crable, WR Cedric Tillman
New Arrivals: HB Joe Mickles, T Barry Shippang, QB Todd Collins, K Cole Ford, WR Curtis Marsh
Outlook: Coach Johnson came into a hot mess in St. Louis, and we are not sure enough has been done to turn the tide yet. Losing Eric Martin and Frank Wycheck is tough on the offense, but perhaps the biggest issue is that the team is unsettled at QB, with rookie Todd Collins not stepping in immediately as the starter. The boo birds will be out for David Archer, who starts the year as the #1, but how long will Coach Johnson wait before acquiescing to the fans’ demands to see Collins play?
TEXAS OUTLAWS
Coach: Jack Pardee (55-40 with Houston)
Top Players: C John Adickes, LB Brian Bosworth, HB Reggie Cobb, DE John Bosa, WR Eric Metcalf, G Larry Allen, QB Kelly Stouffer
Players Lost: HB Roosevelt Potts, TE Theo Young, T Eugene Chung, CB Corey Raymond, FS Merton Hanks
New Arrivals: QB Tony Sacca, FS Darren Carrington, HB Rodney thomas, DT Darius Holland
Outlook: Texas is going Run & Shoot as Coach Pardee and Coach Davis return to the league that made them famous. But, do any of us really believe that Kelly Stouffer can be as successful as Jim Kelly was? Losing T Eugene Chung will not help. Coach Pardee may also need to tend to the defense a bit more than usual, which is not his strong suit, to be sure.
PACIFIC DIVISION
The Pacific has always been a tough division to call. Oakland and Denver seem like the sturdiest teams, able to win in a variety of ways, but we cannot count out Arizona as well. Portland is again going to try to establish some kind of defensive presence so that they can compete and having two expansion clubs may give the top teams a chance to win a couple more games and perhaps snag the conference’s top seed. Speaking of the reimagined LA Express and the Seattle Dragons, they like Atlanta and Ohio, are likely looking at a long season ahead, and likely will be happy just to be dubbed the best of the 4 expansion clubs, as a playoff run seems unlikely for either of them.
Our Prediction:
Oakland 11-5*
Denver 10-6*
Arizona 9-7
Portland 7-9
Seattle 5-11
Los Angeles 4-12
ARIZONA WRANGLERS
Coach: Ted Tollner (78-82)
Top Players: DE Charles Haley, SS David Fulcher, QB Robbie Bosco, LB Bill Romanowski, LB Broderick Thomas, HB Tim Lester
Players Lost: QB Scott Mitchell, WR Trumaine Johnson, CB Vince Buck, WR Darnay Scott
New Arrivals: DT Jeff Zgonina, HB Mel Farr Jr., WR J. J. Stokes, QB Craig Whelihan,
Outlook: We all know the line about Arizona. They have the potential to have a nightmare defense, but once again no one has much faith in the offense. Losing both Trumaine Johnson (retirement) and Darnay Scott (expansion draft) is not going to help, and while we like J.J. Stokes as the team’s first round pick, there are still a lot of questions about just how Arizona will turn short fields into points.
DENVER GOLD
Coach: Wade Phillips (27-21)
Top Players: TE Keith Jackson, CB Bruce Pickens, LB Kurt Gouveia, LB Marvcus Paton, DT M.D. Perry, WR Mark Carrier, DE Leslie O’Neill
Players Lost: QB Dave Krieg, HB N. Means, T Harry Swaine, WR Glenn Koslowski, LB John Roper
New Arrivals: WR Willie Jackson, C Joel Hilgenberg, HB Rashaan Salaam, QB John Walsh, C Cory Raymer
Outlook: Denver likes to think that they are reloading, not rebuilding, but when you trade away the players who started at QB and HB week one a year ago, it sure feels like a brand new team. That said. Mark Brunell showed flashes last year, and we like the choice of Rashaan Salaam as both a fan favorite and a really talented back, if he can keep his nose clean and firmly placed on the grindstone.
LOS ANGELES EXPRESS
Coach: Rick Neuheisel (0-0)
Top Players: DE Antonio Edwards, G Dave Widdell, DE Santana Dotson, HB Marcus Allen, WR Mike Pritchard, DT Greg Meisner
Players Lost: None, Expansion club.
New Arrivals: Rookies include T Blake Brockmeyer, LB Donta Jones.
Outlook: We are still not sure who the starting QB will be for the Express, and that is not usually a sign of upcoming success. We know who will run the ball, as the big trade for Marcus Allen helped to define the club right away. This will be Allen’s club, and he will have to carry a lot of the offense on his back. The defense has some playmakers, especially Dotson on the edge, but the overall talent pool just does not seem to align well for a 7 or 8 win season. 5 or 6 wins for Coach Neuheisel may be a good first season.
OAKLAND INVADERS
Coach: Dick Vermeil (90-69)
Top Players: QB Bobby Hebert, HB Siran Stacy, DE Ken Harvey, WR Henry Ellard, WR Mark Duper, LB Ron Rivera, DE J.J. Wierenga
Players Lost: T Randy Dixon, HB Fred McAfee, DT Mike Ruth
New Arrivals: HB Blair Thomas, LB Cedrick Crawford, CB Bobby Taylor, K Joe Nedney, G Brendan Stai
Outlook: The Invaders went into the playoffs last year looking like a championship caliber team, but a quick exit shocked Invader fans. Oakland fared well in the expansion draft, and added some interesting talent in free agency and through the draft. We love CB Bobby Taylor, and getting Blair Thomas as a way to spell Stacy occasionally seems a very smart option. It could all come down to Hebert again, but that is not always a bad thing.
PORTLAND THUNDER
Coach: Vince Tobin (47-49 with Memphis)
Top Players: T Bruce Armstrong, HB Robert Drummond, TE Clint Didier, WR Webster Slaughter, QB Jack Trudeau, FS Vencie Glenn, SS Ronnie Lott
Players Lost: CB Gill Byrd, TE Adrian Cooper, HB Derrick Loville, T Joe Valerio, SS Bennie Thompson
New Arrivals: QB Bill Musgrave, DE Hugh Douglas, C Dave Wolhabaugh, LB Mike Junkin
Outlook: Portland brought in a defensive mastermind to finally address their huge issues there. Adding Hugh Douglas in the draft could be an immediate help, but the strength of the Thunder looks to still be that offense. If Drummond can repeat his 1,300 yard season, and if Trudeau can find Didier and Webster Slaughter regularly, Portland may just have enough to move past the others in the division.
SEATTLE DRAGONS
Coach: Woody Widenhofer ( 28-36 with Outlaws)
Top Players: DT Tim Johnson, LB Scott Stephen, QB Dave Krieg, T Mark Shively, G Jesse Sapolo, DE Jim Reynosa, CB Robert Massey, HB Roosevelt Potts
Players Lost: None, Expansion club
New Arrivals: DT Dan Sasa, LB Stephen Boyd, FB Zack Crockett
Outlook: Coach Widenhofer had a winning formula in Texas, and yet could never get past the 8-8 hump, finishing 3 straight years at .500. For the first year Dragons an 8-8 season would be a huge win. This is a team built to win close games, and likely to need to keep teams below 20 in order to win. While we like Dave Krieg, he has not been particularly successful in the USFL. Maybe a change of scenery and a return to the Great Northwest is just what he needs.
OK. We have picked the divisions. Are we ready to pick the Champions? Not exactly. We have been burned the past few years, so rather than pick a club, we are going to give odds. Looking around the league, these 8 teams have, in our perspective, the best odds for a title this year:
1. Birmingham Stallions 4-1
2. Philadelphia Stars 5-1
3. Oakland Invaders 6-1
4. Chicago Machine 8-1
5. Houston Gamblers 10-1
6. Denver Gold 12-1
7. Tampa Bay Bandits 20-1
8. Michigan Panthers 25-1
And if you want a Darkhorse that can make a modest bet into a fortune, go for the LA Express, coming in at a whopping 5000-1.
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