The second part of our season preview focuses on where the teams are now and what their prospects for the future hold. We will break down all 6 divisional races, make our annual playoff predictions, and go in depth on all 28 clubs, their off-season moves and signings, their potential for this season, and our best guess (and it really is a guess more often than not) at who is on the rise, and who may be headed for a bit of a slide. We start with a story we will be following all year, the “swan song” season for the Las Vegas Thunder, sure to be a difficult one for the club before they relocate to San Diego. We will then preview the divisions, teams, and potential award winners, and finish up with some last minute news updates and a quick look at all 14 games on tap this opening weekend of the league.
LAST SEASON OR LOST SEASON?
The Thunder are preparing for their final season in Sin City, already shifting some team operations to their new home, San Diego, but still playing out the 2014 season as a lame duck franchise in the home they adopted after moving from Portland in 2004. It has been a rough decade for the Thunder, with stadium issues, ownership issues, and a topsy-turvy decade on the field, but this season could be the weirdest and most turbulent of all.
What can we expect from the Thunder this year? Well, as we have come to expect, we should plan on seeing a lot of visiting fans at Sam Boyd Stadium for each home game. The Thunder and the city of Las Vegas have always been a popular road trip option for fans of visiting teams, but with only 11,000 season tickets sold for the final year of the Thunder in Las Vegas, there will be more seats than ever available to out-of-towners who step away from the strip for a USFL game. We should also expect that with a new club already planned for 2015, fans in Las Vegas will be eagerly awaiting their new club, ditching their Thunder gear, and very likely openly hostile to the league and the team’s failed ownership group. How that manifests at games is yet to be seen, but if the example of the Boston Cannon’s departure from BC’s Alumni Stadium is anything to learn from, the league should absolutely invest in beefed up stadium security.
The new domed stadium, still seeking a corporate sponsor for the naming rights, is scheduled to open in time for a 2015 season opener for the USFL, and the city along with its stadium authority also continue to push for an NFL club to join the USFL in the stadium. It will be a showcase venue, just steps off the famous Las Vegas strip and providing something Thunder fans have never felt, a cool, comfortable climate controlled environment for the home team’s games. Just how the league will place a team in Las Vegas for 2015 is still unknown, though we expect that relocation will be the solution, but the league has committed to fill the stadium that it has largely financed.
As for 2014, the Thunder not only have to contend with the fallout from their relocation and sale, but also from a 2013 season that saw them start 6-2 only to drop 7 of their final 8 games and miss the playoffs that seemed so likely at midseason. The Thunder have a new head coach in former Panther head man Dick LeBeau. A no-nonsense disciplinarian and defensive strategist, it will be a dramatic shift from the more easy-going and offensive-minded June Jones. How the Thunder react to their new leader, their new direction, and to all the craziness that is sure to ensue over the next season and the next year will be a story we will continue to follow all season long.
ANALYSIS OF THE 6 DIVISIONS
Twenty eight teams in six divisions. How will they rank? Who will take the division titles and who will compete for one of 6 Wild Cards across the league? Will any of the 2013 division winners tumble as St. Louis did? Will any non-playoff teams rise up like Arizona did last year? We keep telling you that your guess is as good as ours, but you keep asking us to make picks anyway, so here they are.
This feels very much like a 2-team race once again, with the Stars and Federals battling it out all season. We feel a bit more confident about Philadelphia, so we are going to give them the division once again, but we see this as a 1-game swing either way. Of the remaining 3 teams, we think Pittsburgh is best positioned to make a run, but would not be shocked if New Jersey rebounded from a disastrous 2013 with a strong season under Norv Turner. We see Baltimore as heading into a rebuild cycle and lacking the firepower to challenge this year.
Five Players to Watch in the Northeast:
HB Anthony Dixon (BAL): Replacing Ron Dayne may seem an impossible task, but in 2012, when Dayne missed nine games, Dixon rushed for nearly 1,000 yards. The Blitz are counting on him being able to step up and step into the bell cow back role this year. TE
WR Odell Beckham Jr (NJ): The Generals seem primed to have OBJ line up with Doug Baldwin as a starter from day one, and if his 131-yard preseason game is any indication, he may explode onto the scene in that role.
Travis Kelce (PHI): As a rookie, Kelce had 70 receptions and 658 yards in only 12 games. He could make a legitimate run at 1,000 yards in 2014, which for a TE is a rare thing.
DT Aaron Donald (PIT): Already a well-known commodity in the Pittsburgh area after a stellar career at Pitt, the big, brawny DT could now become a household name nation wide. Expect the Maulers to use Donald for more than blocker-occupation. They want him to penetrate and disrupt, something he did regularly as a Pitt Panther.
DE Chris Long (WSH): After a 14-sack outburst in 2013, the Feds are hoping to see even more from their left end. The goal this year will be to put Long in a position to get one-on-one blocking assignments, with 20 sacks the ultimate goal.
Our Projected Standings:
Philadelphia* 12-4
Washington* 11-5
Pittsburgh* 9-7
New Jersey 8-8
Baltimore 5-11
This division could see as many as 4 teams competing for a title, and could have a division winner with as few as 8-9 wins on the year. Charlotte seems to be losing a step, and their advantage over Atlanta was not a big one to begin with. We also like Tampa Bay to make a run, Orlando to potentially surprise some folks, and, yes, Jacksonville to bring up the rear once again.
Five Players to Watch in the Southeast:
LB Luke Kuechley (ATL): The Fire snagged Kuechley from Boston/Dallas last year and he struggled a bit to adapt to a new system, but this offseason has been a good one for the MLB and Coach Ramsey says that he expects the former BC star to come into his own this season, seeking his first 100-tackle season in the league.
FS Tre Boston (CHA): The UNC product will be the only rookie starter on the Monarchs squad, and starting as a rookie in the free safety position can be a big challenge. We will see if teams try to exploit his inexperience with slot receivers and tight ends.
OT Taylor Lewan (JAX): Another rookie starter, Lewan will move from this LT position at Michigan to the right side in Jacksonville, at least at first. We may well see him take over the LT slot by midseason.
QB Russell Wilson (ORL): In his first year as a starter, Wilson put up 19 touchdowns (15 picks) and threw for over 3,200 yards. The goal this year is to see his TD:INT ratio move towards 2:1 and to turn yards into points.
HB Jahvid Best (TBY): Replacing a legend is never easy, so Best's role, stepping in for Willis McGahee, will be to create his own identity. In his best prior season, 2012 in Seattle, Best had 649 yards rushing. He may need to double that total to win over skeptical Bandit fans.
Our Projected Standings:
Tampa Bay* 10-6
Charlotte* 9-7
Atlanta 8-8
Orlando 6-10
Jacksonville 6-10
This feels like New Orleans’s division to lose, with Birmingham and Memphis the most likely competition, but at least one or two steps behind. The bigger question for New Orleans is if they can be better in inter-divisional play, improving enough to take on the big guns from the Northeast? We are not sure, but in the South they do seem the best team. We are also looking at Nashville as both a potential basement dweller in Greg Roman’s first year at the helm.
Five Players to Watch in the South:
WR Julian Edelman (BIR): With the departure of both Moss and Owens, Edelman is the receiver on the squad with the most career receptions. Can the career slot man expand his role to become a primary target for Cam Newton?
LB NaVorro Bowman (MEM): Now in his 5th year with the Showboats, a lot will be placed on the defensive captain to improve this defense and build a cohesive squad. Yet to reach 100 tackles in any season, Bowman has to lead by example.
QB Eli Manning (MEM): If the Showboats are going to move into playoff position for the first time since 2008, it is going to be the offense that gets them there, and that means that Eli Manning has to show us all that he truly is an elite QB in the league and not just a decent QB who occasionally has explosive games.
HB Ray Rice (NSH): Rice had his first 1,000 yard season in 2012 wth LA, then 1,100 with Nashville in 2013. Can his stock keep rising? The Knights could certainly use the balance that comes with a strong run game.
HB Jeremy Hill (NOR): A lot is expected of the LSU product, with Matt Forte gone, the run game could be his. The Breakers have high hopes for this season and Hill coming out of the gate strong could be a big piece of those hopes.
Our Projected Standings:
New Orleans* 10-6
Birmingham 8-8
Memphis 8-8
Nashville 3-13
This division depends a lot on whether or not St. Louis can rebound from a disappointing 2013 season. If they can return to their 2012 league title form, then we have a really nice 2-team race. If not, then Chicago may run away with this division. We think that both Michigan and Ohio are slowly getting closer to the leaders, but they don’t seem ready to be there yet unless one can pull off an Arizona-like leap this season. Our Projected Standings:
Five Players to Watch in the Central:
WR Aaron Dobson (CHI): Dobson had over 1,000 yards but only 4 TDs as a rookie. For Chicago to develop an elite passing game, they will need more out of him in his 2nd year.
QB Kirk Cousins (MGN): A season with 23 TDs and 3,500 yards is a great start, but for Michigan to get over the hump, Cousins will have to work on avoiding mistakes. Another 18-pick season will have new head coach Jim Johnson looking for other options.
DE Justin Tuck (MGN): The former NY Giant had 22 sacks last year in the NFL. The Panthers would be overjoyed to see those kinds of numbers from him this spring.
LB Ryan Shazier (OHI): The Ohio State rookie is hoping to not miss a beat as he continues to cause chaos in Ohio Stadium. Coach Andrus would like nothing more than to see the Buckeye disrupt the Central Division the way he disrupted the Big 10.
QB Josh Freeman (STL): The Skyhawk QB threw for 1,000 fewer yards and 15 fewer touchdowns in 2013 than their 2012 title year. If he cannot bounce back this year, St. Louis may not be able to rebound either.
Our Projected Standings:
Chicago* 10-6
St. Louis* 9-7
Ohio 9-7
Michigan 7-9
While this division is certainly Arizona’s if they can maintain their 2013 effort, we think the natural post-title hangover, along with pretty solid squads in Texas and Denver, will produce a tighter division than the runaway division crown that Arizona won last year. There are a lot of new faces across the board in the SW Division, mostly on teams other than the defending USFL champions. That may mean some time is needed to adjust, but it also could produce a team that rises up with the right mix of players to challenge the Wranglers.
Five Players to Watch in the Southwest:
HB Ka'Deem Carey (ARZ): Do we expect 200 carries or 1,000 yards from the Arizona Wildcat rookie? No, but what is needed is just a reliable back to spell Frank Gore and keep him healthy for the full season.
QB Johnny Manziel (DAL): We know, we know, the season has not even started yet and you are already getting tired of hearing about "Johnny Football". Trust us when we say that the feeling is not shared in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
HB DeMarco Murray (DEN): Last year Murray said he wanted to be considered not only a starting back but an elite back, but with only 882 yards last year, he will need to prove he deserves that honor with at least 300-400 more this season.
WR Mike Evans (HOU): One of two impressive rookies the Gamblers signed, along with HB Carlos Hyde, Evans has a shot to be a prime target for Matt Hasselbeck and a game changer for the Gamblers.
HB Chris Johnson (TEX): The NFL import won't likely play for 1-2 games, to give his body time to recover from the NFL season, but Texas needs him to be an impact player as soon as he sees action.
Our Projected Standings:
Arizona * 12-4
Texas* 10-6
Denver* 9-7
Houston 7-9
Dallas 6-10
This now feels like the division with the clearest frontrunner and the potential to only land 1 team in the playoffs. Oakland looks and feels like a real contender, while LA, Las Vegas, and Portland all seem to be either treading water or taking a step back from their 2013 success. We just don’t see this as a very tight division, and while we could be wrong, for now we are going to predict that Oakland is the first team to clinch a playoff berth even if they don’t end up as the top seed in the West.
Five Players to Watch in the Pacific:
HB Marshawn Lynch (LV): Lynch has not had a 1,000 yard season since 2009. Injuries and bad line play have stunted his talent. Las Vegas needs to set him free this year.
WR Roddy White (LA): White had 1,000 yards and 8 TDs with Portland in 2012. After a rough 2013 he is now in LA, and he steps in as the number one target for Mark Sanchez. The Express are counting on him to grow into that role.
TE Richard Rodgers (OAK): As excited as Invader fans are about WR Davante Adams, it may well be Rodgers who has a bigger rookie season. With Joel Dreesen gone, Oakland certainly hopes Rodgers can step up.
QB Matt McGloin (POR): Coach Mornhinweg has put his faith in 2nd year QB McGloin over veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. Can the Penn State product deliver points, wins, and a playoff berth for the Stags?
LB Khalil Mack (SEA): One player is not going to turn around the fortunes of the club, but don't tell that to Dragon fans, who are already canonizing Mack as the next big thing.
Our Projected Standings:
Oakland* 12-4
Portland 9-7
Los Angeles 9-7
Seattle 7-9
Las Vegas 6-10
PLAYOFF PREDICTONS
OK, we have the standings and the 12 playoff teams. Here is what we see happening. Oakland and Philadelphia get the 1 seeds, with Arizona and new Orleans the twos (so no changes at the top). The wild Card round sees only 1 upset, with St. Louis upending Texas in San Antonio. The other top seeds all advance, Setting up Washington @ New Orleans, Tampa Bay at Philadelphia, St. Louis at Oakland and Chicago at Arizona. Again, the favorites rule, with one exception, the Federals upend the Breakers. Eastern Conference is Washington v. Philadelphia, and the West is a rematch with Arizona now traveling to Oakland. Our pick for the Summer Bowl in Atlanta is for the Stars to return for another shot, where they will face Oakland, the two one seeds making it through once again.
This is where it is a real toss up. Good arguments can be made for either club, but we have a bit of a soft spot for Coach Green, Joey Harrington, and the Invaders, so we are going to pick Oakland to take home their second title and Philadelphia to once again be stymied in the Summer Bowl. Of course, astute observers will quickly note that we did not even pick Arizona to make the playoffs last year, and we are very rarely even close, having missed on the SkyHawks the year before as well. So, this is why they play the games.
TEAM BY TEAM PREVIEW
We have looked at the divisions and made our playoff picks. Now it is time to look a bit more closely at all 28 clubs, who they have lost, who they have added, and what we think it all means for each. It’s team by team previews, so be prepared for a lot of new names and a lot of pure speculation.
BALTIMORE
2013 Record: 8-8, 3rd in division
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell
Departures: LB A. Crowell (FA), QB K. Kolb (FA), WR C. Thorpe (BAL), CB C. Graham (FA), DT J. Zgonina (NFL), CB J. Bell (CFL), P T. Gowin (RET), WR R. Ferguson (RET), HB R. Dayne (RET), G E. Steinbach (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: HB C. Benson (FA), P S. Gibson (FA), WR R. Parish (FA), CB J. Greer (NFL), QB V. Young (TRADE)
Rookie Class: DT Dominique Easley (Florida), LB Marcus Smith (LVille), OT Mitchell Van Dyk (Por St)
Outlook: it is hard to make the case that the Baltimore Blitz are a better team today than the 8-8 squad that barely missed the playoffs last season. Ron Dayne’e retirement is a big blow, one we are not sure the team is ready to address with Anthony Dixon and journeyman back Cedric Benson. The team did add a pair of rookie defenders, and we like their effort to bring Jabari Greer in from the NFl, but overall this team feels a bit weaker than last year’s squad, and a lot more is going to be on the shoulders of Big Ben Roethlisberger.
Predicted Finish: The NE Division is one where you simply have to be on your best every week, and we are not sure Baltimore’s best will be good enough. We see them bringing up the rear in a rough year. Our prediction is 5-11 and an early draft pick.
NEW JERSEY
2013 Record: 4-12, 5th in division
Head Coach: Norv Turner (1st year)
Departures: CB A. Ward (FA), QB J. Blake (RET), DE S. Ellis (RET), G T. Reyes (RET), DT B. Mbane (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: OT J. Greco (FA), HB T. Bell (FA), G S. Mahan (FA), DE M. Harrison (FA), S A. Bethea (NFL), DE H. Melton (TRADE), G P. Zakauskas (TRADE)
Rookie Class: WR Odell Beckham Jr (LSU), LB Chris Borland (Wisc), LB Telvin Smith (FSU), DE Michael Sam (Mizzou)
Outlook: We all understand that 2014 will largely hinge on Sam Bradford’s return and how new head coach Norv Turner can best utilize his QB and the other offensive talent on the team. After trading away Michael Crabtree, the Generals go out and draft one of the most explosive and exciting wideouts available in LSU’s Odelle Beckham Jr. That will certainly go a long way. Bringing in two solid guards in Zakauskas and Mahan is another shrewd move. Now, that defense. That is still a problem, and losing Shaun Ellis will not help it any, even with lower cost DE’s Harrison and Melton brought in. Expect more of a rotation on the D-line but it will be the LB group that may determine if New Jersey can compete.
Predicted Finish: Somewhere between the 4-12 outing last year and the 12-4 outing in 2013 is the truth about this team. They could stay down or could skyrocket back up, but we are going to take the middle position, 8-8 and 4th place in the division.
PHILADELPHIA
2013 Record: 12-4, Division Winner, Eastern Conference Champion
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh
Departures: G M. McGlynn (FA), WR J. Hardy (FA), TE D. Fells (FA), OT S. Vollmer (FA), HB K. Irons (FA), CB Q. Jammer (RET)
Veteran Arrivals: LB T. Suggs (FA), DT J. Babineaux (NFL)
Rookie Class: CB Jason Verritt (TCU), WR Allen Robinson (Penn ST), DE Aaron Lynch (USF), TE Cameron Brate (Harvard)
Outlook: The Stars were a hair’s breath away from a title last year and they look like an even better team this year. That defense, with the addition of Terrell Suggs and NFL DT Babineaux, is going to be just brutal for opponents. The offense will largely be the same as last year, so as long as everyone can stay healthy this Stars squad should once again be a contender for the top seed and another Summer Bowl run.
Predicted Finish: Philly’s 12-4 season last year was impressive. Repeating in the same vein will be doubly impressive, but we think this team has what it takes to do so. We will go 12-4 and another top seed in the East for the Stars.
PITTSBURGH
2013 Record: 7-9, 4th in division
Head Coach: Vic Fangio (1st Year)
Departures: LB K. Bullock (FA), TE O. Daniels (FA), K E. Parson (FA), HB B. Boldin (FA), QB Q. Carter (FA), CB P. Surtain (NFL), HB K. Watson (NFL), LB K. Mitchell (NFL), DE H. Melton (TRADE), WR K. Johnson (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: WR M. Williams (FA), CB K. Lewis (FA), LB P. Posluszny (FA), K S. Graham (FA), HB T. Gerhardt (NFL)
Rookie Class: DT Aaron Donald (PITT), QB Tom Savage (PITT), TE Arthur Lynch (UGA), LB Randell Johnson (FAU), HB Chris Sims (WVU)
Outlook: The Maulers surprised many last year, but another sub-500 season meant that patience for what Ron Rivera was building came to an end. In comes Arizona DC Vic Fangio, trying to recreate the magic of last year’s Wrangler D. They have some tools to work with, including one of the best safeties in the league in Sean Taylor. They need more QB pressure, and they need Andy Dalton to continue to develop. Getting him a solid option at WR in Mike Williams, to go with 2nd year standouts Adam Thielen and Tavon Austin is a good start. If DT Aaron Donald is everything we expect of him, the defense will be solid, now just put some points on the board.
Predicted Finish: Pittsburgh is one of our darkhorse teams this year. We think they have improved from last season and could jump into the 9-10 win range. We are going to be conservative and say 9-7, which could quite possibly put them in Wild Card territory.
WASHINGTON
2013 Record: 10-6, 2nd in Division, Wild Card team
Head Coach: Sean Payton
Departures: OT V. Carey (FA), WR D. Amendola (FA), K S. Graham (FA), WR D. McCants (FA), WR R. Wallace (FA), DE R. Edwards (FA), WR B. Johnson (CFL), G G. DiNapoli (NFL), DE K. Wemberley (TRADE), HB J. Best (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: WR S. Breaston (FA), WR B. LaFell (FA), HB J. Hester (FA), K A. Vinatieri (NFL), LB D. Jackson (NFL), C Ben Jones (TRADE), G T. Bond (TRADE)
Rookie Class: DT Brent Urban (Uva), WR Kelvin Benjamin (FSU), WR Jalen Saunders (OU), C Luke Bowanko (Uva)
Outlook: There was a fear at the end of last season that Deuce McCallister would retire, leaving Washington in a lurch, but he is back, and Washington has added some talent around him as well, with receivers Steve Breaston and Brandon LaFell, the passing game under David Garrard (or Joe Webb) should be improved and that bodes well as Washington aims to challenge the Philadelphia Stars. The one concerni is that the defense did not really add any major contributors, and with the loss of Ron Edwards and Kamerion Wemberley the D-line is thinner than in the past.
Predicted Finish: We still like Washington as perhaps the 2nd best team in the entire conference. The problem, of course, is that our pick for the best team is also in their division. We see 11-5 and another 4-seed as the top Wild Card in the mix for Washington.
ATLANTA
2013 Record: 8-8, 2nd in division, Wild Card team
Head Coach: Tom Ramsey
Departures: C R. Tobeck (FA), LB R. Nece (RET), QB J. Palmer (NFL), OT C. Glenn (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: TE B. Hartsook (FA), QB K. Clemons (NFL), FS E. Thomas (TRADE)
Rookie Class: C Marcus Martin (USC), S Nat Berhe (SDSU), WE Albert Wilson (Ga State)
Outlook: After winning the division in 2012, the Fire slipped just a touch and that allowed Charlotte to take the title last year. Atlanta needs to get to 10 wins to have a realistic chance at a title in a division where as many as 4 of 5 teams could be in the hunt. We love the addition of Earl Thomas to the secondary and Ben Hartsook as a safety valve for Orton, but we don’t see a lot of help coming from the rookie class. This feels very much like a team that is stuck in neutral.
Predicted Finish: If Atlanta is treading water, we can’t expect a big leap in the standings. We are going to say 8-8 once again, but this time that is 3rd place and not a playoff position.
CHARLOTTE
2013 Record: 8-7-1, Division Winner
Head Coach: J. Mora Jr.
Departures: DT R. Sims (FA), CB C. Rogers (FA), WR A. Lelie (FA), WR S. Breaston (FA), DE F. Perry (RET), WR D. Mason (RET), QB J. Delhomme (RET), FS C. Crocker (NFL), G T. Bond (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: WR C. Thorpe (FA), CB D. Cox (FA), WR J. Hardy (FA), DE K. Wemeberley (TRADE)
Rookie Class: S Tre Boston (UNC), OT Morgan Moses (Uva), G John Urschel (Penn St), S Jonathan Dowling (WKU), LB Brock Coyle (Montana)
Outlook: The Monarchs won the division last year, but had some major losses in the offseason, including QB Jake Delhomme, who had largely passed the torch to Brandon Wheedon anyway, and CB Carlos Rogers, a bigger loss. The rookie class is not particularly impressive, and whilewe like the addition of James Hardy and Kamerion Wemberley, this still does not feel like an 11-12 win team
Predicted Finish: We think 9-7 is the ceiling, and that may only be good enough for 2nd place and a possible Wild Card this year.
JACKSONVILLE
2013 Record: 4-12, 5th in division
Head Coach: Mike Nolan (1st Year)
Departures: HB C. J. Spiller (FA), CB K. Smith (FA), WR J. Cotchery (FA), K W. Farnsworth (FA), WE A. Caldwell (FA), CB T. Williams (FA), WR L. Moore (FA), G D. Woody (RET), G A. Snyder (NFL), DT M. Stroud (NFL), OT L. Petigout (NFL), TE V. Shiancoe (NFL), S J. Jarrett (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: DT H. Melton (FA), CB J. Knox (FA), WR J. Kerley (FA), G C. Hodges (FA), WR S. Moss (FA), TE K. Winslow II (NFL), C A. Caldwell (TRADE)
Rookie Class: CB Jaylen Watkins (Florida), OT Taylor Lewan (Mich), G Dakota Dozier (Furman), HB Kiero Small (Arkans)
Outlook: We have said that 4 of 5 teams in the SE Division should compete for the title, and Jacksonville is the 5th team. Other than Tim Tebow putting up huge numbers, often because the team was playing from behind, there was not much positive to take out of 2013. The offseason saw a major roster turnover, and we do like some of the additions, including NFL TE Kellen Winslow II and receivers Jeremy Kerley and Sinorice Moss, but is it enough to turn the tide? Mike Nolan, former Breaker coach, will be charged with helping to revive the team and get more positive results.
Predicted Finish: We think Nolan has his hands full and will need at least another year to build the roster he wants in Jacksonville. For now modest growth, perhaps 6-10 , is what we should expect.
ORLANDO
2013 Record: 8-8, 3rd in division
Head Coach: John Fox
Departures: LB P. Posluszny (FA), WR J. McCaerins (FA), QB D. Anderson (FA), HB L. Stephens-Howling (NFL), K B. Grammatica (RET), FS T. Kiel (RET)
Veteran Arrivals: TE D. Fells (FA), FS D. Bing (FA), K B. Cundiff (NFL), WR J. Maclin (NFL)
Rookie Class: LB Anthony Barr (UCLA), DT Ego Ferguson (LSU), DE Kareem Martin (UNC), QB Connor Shaw (So Car), OT Seantrel Henderson (Miami)
Outlook: The question the past few years in Orlando is how can a team with the best defensive player in the game keep finishing with such mediocre records. Orlando just has not put enough around Calais Campbell to win consistently, though 8-8 is not a bad start. While we like rookie LB Anthony Barr, the loss of Paul Posluszny in the middle will be felt. Orlando seems to have swapped a lost player with an equivalent or even a downgrade at several positions, with few where we see potential improvement. That is not what Coach Fox needs in order to get over the hump.
Predicted Finish: Orlando should compete in a division where 9-7 could be enough, but our feeling overall is that they could also slip a bit from 2013. The roster just does not have enough offensive punch to scare most opponents. We think 6-10 is a very real possibility.
TAMPA BAY
2013 Record: 7-9, 4th in division
Head Coach: Mike Shula
Departures: CB P. Robinson (FA), SS I. Basheer (FA), WE D. Tyree (FA), G M. McFadden (FA), LB M. Beisel (FA), LB J. Vilma (NFL), FS B. Scott (NFL), HB W. McGahee (RET)
Veteran Arrivals: CB C. Rogers (FA), CB C. Graham (CB), G P. McQuistan (FA), OT S. Vollmer (FA), LB NB. Orakpo (NFL), HB J. Best (TRADE)
Rookie Class: DT Timmy Jerningan (FSU), S Lamarcus Joyner (FSU), S Adrian Phillips (Texas), LB Devon Kennard (USC), WR Ryan Grant (Tulane)
Outlook: The Bandits had one of the most explosive offenses in the league last year, with Daunte Culpepper hitting a second wind that most did not expect. That offense will take a hit with the departure of Willis McGahee, but we like the potential for a combo of Jahvid Best and rookie WR/HB Ryan Grant to pick up the slack. Add to that a younger, and more talented defense, particularly with the addition of CB Carlos Rogers and NFL linebacker Brian Orakpo, and this could be a tough team.
Predicted Finish: We are liking the moves Mike Shula made, and we think that the defense could be improved enough to garner a division title in a very tight division. Our pick is 10-6 and the SE Division crown for this Bandit group.
BIRMINGHAM
2013 Record: 8-8, 2nd in division, Wild Card team
Head Coach: Mike Shanahan
Departures: OT J. Greco (FA), DT H. Melton (FA), TE J. Thomas (FA), QB A. Wright (FA), WR R. Moss (RET), WR T. Owens (RET)
Veteran Arrivals: TE D. Walker (FA), WR C. Chambers (FA)
Rookie Class: OT Greg Robinson (Auburn), WR Donte Moncrief (Ole Miss), DT Kaleb Ramsey (BC), QB A. J. McCarron (Alabama)
Outlook: After a quick start in 2013, the Stallions got a bit sloppy and finished 8-8, with a bit of luck to eke their way into a playoff berth. They will need to do more to get back there, but we do like some of the talent they have added. Their biggest issue, and it is a huge one, is at wideout, where they lose potential HOF receivers in Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. Adding Chris Chambers and rookie Donte Moncrief does not feel like enough of a backfill to make up for the loss. So, passing game could be weaker, can they run the ball and play more consistent defense? That too seems problematic.
Predicted Finish: Birmingham should have been a 10-win team last year but they let games slip away. This year they cannot afford to take any weeks off. We think 8-8 is about right, but this year they cannot count on that getting them a postseason berth.
MEMPHIS
2013 Record: 5-11, 3rd in division
Head Coach: Brad Childress
Departures: P D. Colquitt (FA), G L. Vasquez (FA), G C. Stephenson (FA), HB M. Smith (FA), SS J. Paige (NFL), FS B. Pollard (RET), TE J. Kliensasser (RET), FS T. Jones (RET)
Veteran Arrivals: CB K. Smith (FA), FB P. Hillis (FA), S Idrees Basheer (FA), P P. McAfee (NFL)
Rookie Class: S Calvin Pryor (LVille), TE Crockett Gilmore (Co State), S Lonnie Ballentie (Memphis), LB Jeremiah George (IA State), CB Marcus Williams (ND State)
Outlook: The Showboats found some offense last year with Eli Manning as their new QB. This yea rthey hope to build on that, but they absolutely had to rebuild a pretty porous defense. Bringing in CB Kevin Smith, safety Idrees Basheer, and rookie Calvin Pryor all seem like good moves that will help them defend the pass in particular. The stealthy addition of one of the best blocking fullbacks in Peyton Hillis could also be a huge help as the Memphis run game could really boost their overall offensive production.
Predicted Finish: We like Memphis to take a step forward, possibly to overtake Birmingham for 2nd place in the division. We are going to be conservative and say 8-8, but 9 wins is certainly feasible.
NASHVILLE
2013 Record: 5-11, 4th in division
Head Coach: Greg Roman (1st Year)
Departures: FB P. Hillis (FA), TE D. Walker (FA), G S. Mahan (FA), WR A. Merit (FA), LB B. Johnson (FA), WR C. Roby (FA), C J. Grove (NFL)
Veteran Arrivals: LB A. Crowell (FA)
Rookie Class: DE Dee Ford (Auburn), G Spencer Long (Nebr), C Wesley Johnson (Vandy), LB Avery Williamson (UKy), HB Branden Oliver (Buff)
Outlook: As much as we love Peyton Manning, he is not the same QB we saw in the NFL, and this year very much feels like the start of a rebuild, with new head coach Greg Roman tasked with creating something new for a team that now finds itself possibly in a lot of turmoil. There is talent in the Knights’ draft class, especially with DE Dee Ford, but they needed to do more in free agency and just did not find success. Time and more roster improvements are absolutely needed in Nashville.
Predicted Finish: We see a rough year ahead for the Knights, rough as in 3-13. A tough result for a proud team with a lot of success in the rear view mirror and a lot of uncertainty looking ahead.
NEW ORLEANS
2013 Record: 9-6-1, Division Winner
Head Coach: Lamar Lathon
Departures: WR B. LaFell (FA), SS C. Chavous (FA), HB M. Forte (FA), QB K. Boller (FA), CB D. Landry (FA), LB T. Marshall (FA), LB D. Smith (NFL), OT J. Hatch (NFL), TE A. Shea (RET)
Veteran Arrivals: TE J. Dreesen (FA), QB Q. Carter (FA), WE K. Britt (NFL)
Rookie Class: HB Jeremy Hill (LSU), S Terrence Brooks (FSU), CB Shaquille Richardson (Ariz), OT Charles Leno (Boise), LB Christian Jones (FSU)
Outlook: Lamar Lathon has improved this team each year he has been at the helm and we expect the same in 2014. The addition of Kenny Britt from the NFL feels like a very good swap for the departure of LaFell to Washington. Joel Dreesen is a nice add at TE as well, but our favorite move may be the rookie addition of Jeremy Hill from LSU. After years trying to turn Matt Forte into the next Thurman Thomas, that experiment is over. Hill is a different type of runner, and paired with Mike Tolbert, could be a nice 1-2 punch.
Predicted Finish: New Orleans is a pretty solid bet to repeat as champions of the division. After a run to the Eastern Finals, the question is whether they are ready to compete with the likes of Philadelphia or Washington for a Summer Bowl berth. We think they are close, but maybe one step short. 11-5 is our pick for the 2014 Breakers.
CHICAGO
2013 Record: 10-6, Division Winner
Head Coach: Greg Schiano
Departures: TE B. Hartsook (FA), HB B. Tate (FA), G P. McQuistan (FA), WR T. Streets (FA), QB A. Walter (NFL), LB K. Bell (RET)
Veteran Arrivals: HB M. Forte (FA), HB B. Boldin (FA), QB J. Booty (FA), TE S. Chandler (NFL)
Rookie Class: G Zach Martin (NDame), LB Christian Kirksey (Iowa), DT Louis Nix (NDame), TE Troy Niklas (NDame), S Jemea Thomas (Ga Tech)
Outlook: The Machine surprised many with a 10-win season in 2013, but not Coach Greg Schiano. Despite some losses in free agency, Schiano is even more optimistic about the 2014 club. The addition of Matt Forte and Brandon Boldin gives him some depth behind Doug Martin. NFL import Scott Chandler has impressed in camp, and the Machine, as per usual, were able to squeeze every drop of talent out of the Notre Dame graduating class. We particularly like DT Louis Nix. Keep an eye on Christian Kirksey out of Iowa as well. Not slated as a starter, he could still see a lot of snaps.
Predicted Finish: Chicago has to watch out for a rebound from St. Louis, but by most accounts, they are the team to beat in the division. The defense is getting an infusion of young blood and the offense is both balanced and stable, if a bit predictable, but that is OK. We think they repeat as division champs, and 10-6 feels about right once again.
MICHIGAN
2013 Record: 6-10, 4th in division
Head Coach: Jim Johnson (1st Year)
Departures: DE C. Baker (FA), WR K. Kasper (FA), WR K. Colbert (NFL), LB K. Ellison (NFL), G L. Friedman (RET), S J. Leonhard (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: S C. Chavous (FA), DE J. Tuck (NFL) , LB R. Jeanty (TRADE),
Rookie Class: WR Cody Latimer (IU), G Chris Watt (NDame), DT Caraun Reid (Prince), G Jon Halapio (Florida), G Bryan Witzmann (SD State)
Outlook: From one longstanding coach in Dick LeBeau to another in former Knights head man Jim Johnson. It seems the Panthers value stability. Now, if they could just be as consistent on the field. Kirk Cousins made plenty of mistakes last year, in part due to the loss of Hines Ward for much of the year, but the offense had some moments and LeVeon Bell at HB proved he was the real deal. Those are some good building blocks. The defense needed help, and the additions of NFL edge rusher Justin Tuck and free agent Corey Chavous could be the cavalry, but this is a team that will need to undergo some transformations to match Coach Johnson’s vision.
Predicted Finish: Still rebuilding, now redesigning their schemes, Michigan is a work in progress. We think returning to 6-10 would be a solid year, 7-9 would be an accomplishment.
OHIO
2013 Record: 8-8, 2nd in division
Head Coach: Bart Andrus
Departures: WR J. Walker (FA), CB D. Cox (FA), C E. Olson (FA), P. S. Gibson (FA), OT J. Rogers (NFL), G k. Simmons (NFL), DE C. Davis (RET), FS T. Driver (RET), SS J. Philips (RET), QB V. Young (TRADE), LB R. Jeanty (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: P. D. Colquitt (FA), G M. Petrus (FA), WR R. Brown (FA), G E. Steinbach (TRADE), S J. Leonhard (TRADE)
Rookie Class: LB Ryan Shazier (OH State), OT Jack Mewhort (OH State), S Maurice Alexander (UT State), DE Cassius Marsh (UCLA), C Corey Lindsley (OH State)
Outlook: Ohio surprised us with their Chris Weinke-led offense last year. Now, can the arrival of Ohio State LB Ryan Shazier and safety Jim Leonhard do the same for the defense? Ohio could be in the mix when it is all said and done, assuming, of course, that they avoid the late season swoon we saw last year.
Predicted Finish: We think Coach Andrus learned from last year’s issues, and that the defense can be better, which puts us in a 9-7 mindset, which may just be enough for a Wild Card.
ST. LOUIS
2013 Record: 8-8, 3rd in division
Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Departures: WR S. Moss (FA), QB J. Booty (FA), DE M. Harrison (FA), WR T. Jacobs (NFL), SS K. Curtis (RET), FS A. Edwards (RET), G P. Zakauskas (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: WR E. Decker (NFL), DT B. Mbane (TRADE)
Rookie Class: DE Kony Ealy (Mizzou), CB E. J. Gaines (Mizzou), S Marqueston Huff (Wyom), QB Tajh Boyd (Clems), G Justin McCray (UCF)
Outlook: The Skyhawks did not fare well in their title defense, dropping to .500 despite staying relatively healthy last year. They lose some role players, and the management decided to part ways with Taylor Jacobs after a pretty stellar career in St. Louis. Who will step up as the new number one receiver? That is a huge question for the Skyhawks. We don’t think it will be NFL speedster Erik Decker, though he will likely have a strong year. Even with that question out there, we think St. Louis rebounds, just enough to compete for the division title, but most likely a Wild Card.
Predicted Finish: We are going to say modest improvement to 9-7, and perhaps a Wild Card as the 2nd team in the Central.
ARIZONA
2013 Record: 15-1, Division Winner, League Champion
Head Coach: Jim Tomsula
Departures: DT L. Jordan (FA), WR M. Williams (FA), K D. Buehler (FA), HB J. Dwyer (FA), DT M. Pope (NFL), DT J. Shaw (NFL)
Veteran Arrivals: K E. Parson (FA), WR D. Tyree (FA)
Rookie Class: DT Will Sutton (ASU), OT Ja’Wuan James (Tenn), DT Ryan Carrethers (Ark St), LB Carl Bradford (ASU), HB Ka’Deem Carey (Ariz0
Outlook: Usually we see a league champion picked a part in free agency, but Arizona had very few major contributors available for other teams to land. They also did a fair job of replacing those they did lose. We particularly like Ka’Deem Carey as a change of pace behind Frank Gore and Ryan Carrethers adding depth at DT. This is a team that is very much ready to make a run at a repeat.
Predicted Finish: We don’t think the Wranglers will sneak up on anyone, so 15 wins may be a lot to ask, but a division title and deep playoff run, absolute. We say 12-4 and a possible 1 seed once again.
DALLAS
2013 Record: 4-12, 5th in division
Head Coach: Mike Sherman
Departures: HB T. Bell (FA), FB T. Fiametta (FA), OT S. McDougle (NFL), DE C. Nwokorie (RET), SS D. Jackson (RET), OT M. Colombo (RET), FS E. Thomas (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: HB C. Spiller (FA), TE B. Watson (FA), DE C. Baker (FA), LB M. Beisel (FA), OT V. Carrey (FA), OT C. Glenn (TRADE)
Rookie Class: QB Johnny Manziel (TAMU), DE Taylor Hart (Oregon), DT Shamr Stephen (UConn), OT Garry Gilliam (Penn St), S Dezmen Southward (Wisc)
Outlook: A lot of change in Dallas, but none bigger than the arrival of Johnny Manziel. Other additions, such as receiving back C. J. Spiller or TE Ben Watson should help Manziel have early success, but the biggest changes are needed on defense, and we are just not sure enough has been done for Dallas to leave the divisional basement.
Predicted Finish: We think Dallas still has some roster building to do, but they should be a touch better than 2013, so we will say 6-10 but still 5th place.
DENVER
2013 Record: 10-6, 3rd in division, Wild Card
Head Coach: Dick Jauron
Departures: LB W. Overstreet (FA), CB K. Lewis (FA), HB J. Hester (FA), DT J. Mahelona (CFL), DE R. Denney (RET), CB J. Fletcher (RET), WR P. Price (RET), C B. Jones (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: CB D. Landry (FA), CB P. Peterson (FA), CB A. Talib (NFL)
Rookie Class: LB Shaquil Barrett (CO St), DE Stephon Tuitt (NDame), HB Andre Williams (BC), LB Todd Davis (Sac ST), C Weston Richburg (CO St)
Outlook: Denver basically replaced and, we think, upgraded their entire CB group. That will be a big help in this league and this division. We also like the pick of Shaquil Barrett in the T-Draft. We do worry that the loss of Peerless Price will be a big one, but we see Denver still competing in a 3-way race for 2nd place. Will they get there?
Predicted Finish: We are going to pick Denver to finish third in the division, and we think that 9-7 feels about right this year.
HOUSTON
2013 Record: 7-9, 4th in division
Head Coach: Wade Phillips
Departures: C R. Pontbriand (FA), CB J. Knox (FA), WR J. Kerley (FA), HB M. Turner (NFL), QB T. Rattay (NFL), CB C. Canty (RET), WR I. Hilliard (RET)
Veteran Arrivals: HB B. Tate (FA), QB C. McCoy (NFL), CB L. McKelvin (TRADE), WR K. Johnson (TRADE)
Rookie Class: CB Malcolm Butler (West AL), C Travis Swanson (Arkan), HB Carlos Hyde (OH State), WR Mike Evans (TAMU)
Outlook: Two very good rookies on tap for the Gamblers with Carlos Hyde taking over Michael Turner’s interior run focus while Mike Evans will replace Ike Hilliard as the red zone target and “tall receiver”. The signing of Colt McCoy is an interesting long term strategy, perhaps designed to get fans upset about giving away Johnny Manziel to Dallas off the team’s back. Winning will do a better job of that.
Predicted Finish: We are not sure that Houston right now is not a truly mid-range, 500-level team. They just feel like a team that can win a big game and then lose two that they should win. So, we are going to keep them right where they were last year at 7-9 until they prove otherwise.
TEXAS
2013 Record: 10-6, 2nd in division, Wild Card team
Head Coach: Greg Landry
Departures: FB R. Razzano (FA), WR R. Parrish (FA), WR R. Brown (FA), HB J. Finley (FA), HB A. Foster (NFL), OT R. Tucker (RET), QB L. McCown (RET)
Veteran Arrivals: QB K. Boller (FA), HB C. Johnson (NFL)
Rookie Class: DT Ra’Shede Hageman (Minn), LB Anthony Hitchens (Iowa), HB Terrance West (Towson), FB Roosevelt Nix (Kent), OT Jeremiah Sirles (Nebr)
Outlook: The consensus 2nd best team team in the division, Texas could compete with Arizona, but that will require them to get a very good season from Chris Johnson. The NFL import had a couple of down years in Tennessee but is hoping to rebound in the USFL. If he does, this team could compete.
Predicted Finish: We are concerned that Johnson simply does not have the dynamism he once demonstrated, the 2,000-yard capacity and break away speed. If we are wrong, than this pick will be wrong, but we are going to say 10-6 once again and 2nd place once again.
LAS VEGAS
2013 Record: 7-9, 4th in division
Head Coach: Dick LeBeau (1st year)
Departures: FB M. White (FA), TE B. Watson (FA), HB C. Benson (FA), WR W. Ponder (FA), QB I. Martin (FA), CB W. Allen (NFL), DE E. James (NFL), DE E. Flowers (RET), WR M. Booker (RET)
Veteran Arrivals: QB K. Kolb (FA), TE J. Thomas (FA), TE O. Daniels (FA), OT J. Bragg (FA), WR D. Amendola (FA), DE L. Houston (NFL)
Rookie Class: CB Justin Gilbert (OK State), LB Kyle Van Noy (BYU), HB Alfred Blue (LSU), DE Jonathan Newsome (Ball St), FB Trey Millard (OU)
Outlook: This feels like a team that players are fleeing from, and despite the addition of two solid tight ends, we are not sure the Thunder are ready to move forward. The distractions will be there, both off the field and after last year’s horrific 1-7 finish that pulled them from 1st place to 4th. We think 4th is very possible once again.
Predicted Finish: We are pessimistic about this team’s ability to bounce back after so much chaos and a very bad 2nd half last year. We think they end up slipping a bit more to 6-10 this year, and then try to regroup in San Diego.
LOS ANGELES
2013 Record: 9-7, 2nd in division, Wild Card team
Head Coach: Andy Reid
Departures: WR B. Lloyd (FA), HB T. Fredrickson (FA), TE P. Estes (FA), WR K. Johnson (RET), G S. Page (RET), LB G. Irons (RET)
Veteran Arrivals: LB W. Overstreet (FA), WR R. White (FA), G K. Nwaneri (NFL)
Rookie Class: WR Marqise Lee (USC), QB Aaron Murray (UGA), TE Ted Bolser (IU), G Andrew Norwell (OH State), WR Willie Snead IV (Ball St), DT Jimmy Slaten (MTSU)
Outlook: Los Angeles came on late, won a playoff game, but then lost one their stars in Keyshawn Johnson. They got two good-looking receivers in the draft, but right now it still feels like a hole in their overall roster strength. They will need to rely more on the run game and the defense.
Predicted Finish: We think that the loss of Johnson will be significant, and so we are going to drop them a game to 8-8 for this year, as they need time to rediscover their offensive rhythm.
OAKLAND
2013 Record: 13-3, Division Winner
Head Coach: Dennis Green
Departures: LB T. Suggs (FA), TE J. Dreesen (FA), FB S. Smith (FA), G C. Hodges (FA), WR A. Bannister (FA), HB B. Green-Ellis (NFL), K M. Hollis (RET), C A. Caldwell (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: K D. Buehler (FA), LB K. Bullock (FA), HB D. Brown (NFL), SS J. Jarrett (TRADE)
Rookie Class: WR Davante Adams (Fresno), TE Richard Rodgers II (Cal), LB Trent Murphy (Stanf), FS Christian Bryant (OH State), WR Taylor Gabriel (Abeline), C Russell Bodine (UNC), G Tyler Shatley (Clems)
Outlook: The Invaders lost a couple of really big pieces in LB Terrell Suggs and TE Joel Dreesen. However, they had a very strong draft, adding two very promising offensive weapons in Adams and Rodgers (both T-Draft choices). We also like Abeline Christian’s Taylor Gabriel as a reserve slot weapon and return man. LB Trent Murphy could also contribute this year and the addition of NFL back Donald Brown could mean fewer carries for Ryan Williams and a nice change of pace in the run game.
Predicted Finish: Oakland came really close to a title game appearance last year before Arizona shut them down. They may face the same hurdle again this year, but we like their odds in the regular season to win the division. We are going to say 12-4.
PORTLAND
2013 Record: 7-9, 3rd in division
Head Coach: Marty Mornhinweg
Departures: G M. Petrus (FA), WR R. White (FA), FS D. Bing (FA), OT T. Wade (FA), CB M. Manuel (NFL)
Veteran Arrivals: G M. McGlynn (FA), DT R. Edwards (FA), FB G. Jones (NFL), S D. Whitner (NFL)
Rookie Class: WR Brandin Cooks (Or St), CB Pierre Desir (Lindenw), OT Kevin Pamphile (Purdue), TE Trey Burton (Florida)
Outlook: While we like WR Brandin Cooks to stretch the field a bit for Matt McGloin, this still feels like a team that is just not superior to most foes in any one area, nothing they can lean on. They will need to manufacture wins by playing error free ball, and that is a lot to ask over 16 weeks.
Predicted Finish: We are going to bump up Portland to 8-8, which may be good enough for 2nd in the division but may still miss out on the postseason.
SEATTLE
2013 Record: 6-10, 5th in division
Head Coach: Stump Mitchell
Departures: WR C. Chambers (FA), OT J. Bragg (FA), LB S. Arnaux (FA), LB I. Reese (RET), WR A. Boldin (RET), LB T. J. Slaughter (RET), CB L. McKelvin (TRADE)
Veteran Arrivals: WR J. Cotchery (FA), CB T. Williams (FA), LB T. Marshall (FA), LB B. Johnson (FA), FB R. Razzano (FA), LB C. Pace (NFL)
Rookie Class: LB Khalil Mack (Buff), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (Boise), G David Yankey (Stanf), P Pat O’Donnell (Miami), S Pierre Warren (Jax St), DT Beau Allen (Wisc)
Outlook: Seattle brought up the rear last season, but the good news is that they got the man they wanted in the draft, trading up for LB Khalil Mack, a day one starter. We also like the selection of DeMarcus Lawrence in the T-Draft and the addition of NFL LB Calvin Pace. It could be a very different LB group for the Dragons, but we are still worried that their offense is not as diverse as it should be to compete each and every week.
Predicted Finish: Improved over 2013, but unlikely to reach beyond .500. We will give them 7-9, but we are not feeling confident about it.
AWARD PREDICTIONS
One last set of predictions before we get to our last minute news of the week and our preview of Week One’s action. We cannot preview the 2014 season without making some picks for the various league awards. Rather than pick one winner, we will give you a pool of 3 top candidates for each, players (and coaches) who we think are going to put up some huge results and nice numbers this year.
MVP: Most Valuable
We all know that this award is nearly always the domain of the best QBs in the league, with last year’s choice of Frank Gore being the exception. So, if we look at QBs around the league, who do we think could take home this trophy? First up is Daunte Culpepper of Tampa Bay. He had the numbers last year, but the team’s horrible defense kept them from posting a winning record, which killed his chances. We have the Bandits winning the SE Division this year, and with that Culpepper rockets to the top of the list. Next up is Joe Flacco, who is consistently among the league’s best and who may well have to do more this year, particularly if Chris Johnson does not prove to be the perfect replacement for the NFL-bound Arian Foster. Finally, we want to throw a possible comeback player here. Sam Bradford had huge numbers in 2012, then missed most of last year with an injury. He would have a lot of support if his numbers rebounded.
OPOTY: Offensive Player
Assuming the MVP goes to a QB, then we look at the other offensive positions for standout players. Among running backs we see two who could be big vote getters. The first is Chicago’s Doug Martin. He finished 2nd to Gore last year in rushing and could top the list this year. If that helps lead Chicago to a repeat atop the Central, he will be a top choice. The other potential choice comes from Philly. We all saw how huge Steve Slaton was in the playoffs, after his own return from injury. If he can put together a season in the vein of his playoff run, he could also be among the top rushers in the league and that, paired with a strong season for the Stars, could give him the OPOTY nod. Finally, among receivers, we are tempted to go back to Steve Smith, but we also really like the opportunity Vincent Jackson has in Tampa Bay. He put up huge numbers last year, and if those can be paired with a 10+ win season for the Bandits, we could imagine a Bandit sweep of MVP and OPOTY.
DPOTY: Defensive Player
Let’s assume that Calais Campbell is in the mix. How could he not be? But if Orlando is not a playoff contender, he is not the favorite. You have to win games to win DPOTY. Just a fact. So, looking at teams that are in contention and their best defensive players, we see 3 names that could jump to the top. Troy Polamalu in Arizona did not have glaring numbers last year, but that could change, or voters could simply recognize how pivotal he is to one of the league’s best defenses. Anthony Hargrove, the big DE in Philly, has been close to Campbell in numbers for several years, but never seems to get the recognition he deserves. Another strong run by the Stars could change that. Finally, we are going to look at a potential darkhorse in Oakland’s Justin Smith. He is a nasty edge rusher who is most likely the closest to catching Campbell, and Oakland is a clear contender, so Smith could finally get some spotlight this year.
ROTY: Rookie
Always a tough category to pick. We know that Manziel will be considered from day one, but if Dallas finishes with 10 or more losses, it seems unlikely he would get the award without gargantuan production. Our favorite is actually a receiver, Odell Beckham Jr in New Jersey. With Bradford back, but Michael Crabtree gone, OBJ has a real shot at being the top receiver on a pretty solid offense. That is a good position for a rookie to have. Our second pick is on defense and it is based purely on this player’s ability to disrupt games. We love the idea of Aaron Donald in Pittsburgh becoming the next great Steel City defensive superstar. If he even sniffs 10 sacks and can be the effective run disruptor we saw at Pitt, Donald could be a real contender. Our final pick is another darkhorse, because we did not think this was a very good draft for running backs, but Carlos Hyde is penciled in as the lead back in Houston and any time a rookie halfback is given the starting nod before the season even begins, that back has a shot at big numbers and consideration for ROTY.
COTY: Coach
What you are looking for here is either a coach who produces a huge jump in team wins (as Jim Tomsula did with Arizona last year) or a coach who is viewed as maximizing the potential of a somewhat undermanned roster. In the former category, we think that Mike Shula in Tampa Bay has a real shot if our predicted rise up the standings for the Bandits takes place. New Jersey’s Norv Turner is also in this category, if and only if the Generals can rebound back over .500 in 2014. The third candidate falls into the “if this roster can win games, he deserves it” category. That is Nashville’s new head man Greg Roman. We are picking Nashville to win 3 games, worst in the league. But, if Roman can finally get big numbers out of Peyton Manning and if the Knights somehow can reach .500, that may be enough for folks to praise and honor the work of the rookie head coach in Nashville.
LATE BREAKING NEWS
Baltimore Adds 2 Former Glory Players to Roster
Apparently unhappy after their preseason performances, the Baltimore Blitz have added two late signings to their roster, both former Ohio Glory teammates. The first is largely uncontroversial, wideout Javon Walker, the second, center Richie Incognito, could be a bit of a concern from a PR standpoint. Both are solid players, with Incognito having been a full-time starter in Ohio before his suspension last year and Javon Walker having contributed over 110 catches and 10 touchdowns for the Glory in the past two seasons. The problem for Baltimore with Incognito is the cause of his suspension and eventual release by Ohio, charges of both racist and homophobic slurs used against both opposing players and teammates. While Incognito admits to using terms which many would find offensive, he insists that his type of trash talking is common in the league and in football in general. Neither the league or the Ohio Glory concurred with that assessment, leading first to a team suspension, and then a league extension of that sanction. Ohio released Incognito after the 2013 season and he passed through the free agent process as well as two NFL-USFL transfer windows unsigned until Baltimore added him to the roster just this Wednesday.
Walker will be a far less problematic figure, having produced good numbers for the Glory the past few seasons. He is likely to split time with Brian Hartline as the number two receiver, though we could also see Walker as a slot receiver as well. Incognito is not expected to appear in this week’s game, but will almost certainly see action soon, either at center or potentially replacing Terron Armstead at right tackle.
Birmingham Lures Quentin Jammer Back from Retirement
Another club looking to fill an area of concern has reached out to a retired player and lured them back to the game. Quentin Jammer, former Stars All-USFL cornerback, retired this past August, but apparently was open to a return for the right offer. Philadelphia released Jammer’s rights and the Stallions found a formula for a 1-year deal that would bring the 5-time All-USFL selection to Birmingham. Jammer arrived at team facilities Thursday morning and is expected to make his debut with the Stallions in Week 2. When asked about the sudden change of status, Jammer said simply that he felt healthy and ready to play and that the passion for the game was still there. Former coach Jim Harbaugh wished Jammer well and said he would look forward to reuniting with the cornerback when the Stars visit Birmingham to face the Stallions in Week 5.
Bulls Add CFL Star Kory Sheets at HB
Jacksonville continues to tweak their run game in hopes of finding a combination of players who can boost one of the league’s worse rushing attacks from last year. C. J. Spiller left in free agency and it looked like Jacksonville would go into the 2014 campaign with Lamar Miller firmly established as the lead rusher, with rookie Kiero Small as the backup, but Jacksonville has added another option with just 3 days before their opener, signing 2013 CFL star Kory Sheets to a 2-year deal.
Sheets finished the 2013 Summer/Fall CFL season with 1,598 yards and 12 touchdowns, huge numbers for a league where running backs and the run game are clearly secondary to the passing game. Sheets is a Purdue product, having rushed for 1,131 as a senior with the 2008 Boilermakers. He will be used largely on third down and to spell Miller, but he is considered a solid option in the run game, having proven himself up north.
Federals Cut Former Bandit QB Rhett Bomar
Not all the last minute transactions were additions, The Washington Federals, now with David Garrard chosen as the starter, Joe Webb the clear number two, and only one more spot on the roster for a QB, had a decision to make between two veteran backup, Cleo Lemon and Rhett Bomar. Bomar had come to the Feds in 2013 after 4 seasons in Tampa Bay, and that lack of familiarity may well have been the deciding factor as Coach Peyton had worked with Lemon for far longer. The Feds released Bomar, who now becomes a free agent. For those hoping Bomar would return to Tampa Bay, we would say not to hold your breath as the Bandits feel quite comfortable with 2012 draft pick Ryan Lindley and 2013 signing B. J. Daniels behind Duante Culpepper. Bomar started 3 games for Tampa bay back in 2010, but has not thrown a regular season pass since that time. That said, there are always teams looking to add an experienced QB, especially once injuries start to hit this season.
Teams Make Last Minute Moves to Get Under the Cap
Finally, the reality of the league’s salary cap struck several team rosters as clubs had to reach a sub-cap number by this Wednesday. For most teams it was a matter of adjusting or extending some high cost contracts to either reduce or spread over more years the cap hit from some key players. This is what Birmingham did, extending LB DeMeco Ryans’ deal and adjusting the pay schedule for HB Joseph Addai. Jacksonville did likewise, extending QB Tim Tebow for 2 more years, reducing his cap hit by nearly $1M. Ohio restructured the contract of cornerback Ashton Youboty in a similar fashion to get below the cap maximum.
Other teams had to make some tough choices. Orlando cut linebacker colin McCarthy, whose $1.2M contract was not matched with his production. Seattle did likewise with DE Christian Ballard. The moves now put all 28 clubs under the cap, though some, like Arizona, Birmingham, Charlotte, Dallas, Jacksonville, LA, and New Jersey have less than $1M in cap space and may need to restructure some more deals or make some more roster adjustments if and when they need to sign players midseason due to injury. At present the clubs with the greatest cap space are the Stars ($10.8M), Invaders ($7.9M), and Federals ($6.5M), which just goes to show that the teams that are effective in their financial strategy can also be clubs who have great on field success as well.
WEEK 1 GAME PREVIEWS
Here is a quick look at all 14 games headed your way this week. Blue indicates divisional matchups.
Friday @ 8pm ET Arizona @ Denver NBC
A nice divisional matchup between two bitter rivals to open the year on Friday Night Lights.
Saturday @ 12pm ET Nashville @ Charlotte ABC
Two teams criticized for their offseason performance. Can one silence the critics in Week 1?
Saturday @ 12pm ET Washington @ Tampa Bay FOX
It’s defense against offense as both teams try to impose their will on the other.
Saturday @ 4pm ET Baltimore @ Los Angeles ABC
A cross-country trip for the Blitz as LA hopes to notch a season opening win.
Saturday @ 4pm ET New Orleans @ Houston FOX
A pseudo rivalry between bayou neighbors as the Breakers travel to NRG Stadium.
Saturday @ 7pm ET Chicago @ Atlanta NBC
Not much history between these two, but both want to get off to a 1-0 start.
Saturday @ 9pm ET Oakland @ Portland ESPN/EFN
Is this a battle of haves and have nots in the Pacific?
Sunday @ 12pm ET Birmingham @ New Jersey ABC
It will be fun to watch Cam Newton and to see if Sam Bradford is back to his 2012 form.
Sunday @ 12pm ET Memphis @ Philadelphia FOX Regional
A tough way for the Showboats to start the year, against the favorite to hoist the championship trophy.
Sunday @ 12pm ET St. Louis @ Orlando FOX Regional
Just how well with St. Louis’s line hold up against Calais Campbell?
Sunday @ 4pm ET Las Vegas @ Ohio ABC Regional
Two teams that swooned late last year and want to start strong in 2014.
Sunday @ 4pm ET Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh ABC Regional
The Maulers have playoff aspirations, Jacksonville is still in rebuilding mode.
Sunday @ 4pm ET Michigan @ Seattle FOX
Two teams hoping they have put enough pieces in place to compete this season.
Sunday @ 7pm ET Texas @ Dallas ESPN/EFN
A new rivalry that may be sparked this year, especially if Manziel gets in the game.
Colt McCoy playing for the Gamblers just feels right