What list of road movies could be complete without a Burt Reynolds film? We initially thought of Cannonball Run, but could not deny the sheer brilliance of Smokey & the Bandit, with Reynolds at his smirking best and comedy legend Jackie Gleason going full sumbitch as Sheriff Buford T. Justice. Throw in Sally Field and the musical stylings of Jerry Reed and you have a road classic.
A sad week in San Antonio as the home to the Texas Outlaws was at the heart of a tornado strike that ran through the Texas city. While there were fortunately no deaths from the weekend’s tornadoes in south-central Texas, the damage to homes, businesses, and the Alamodome is very real. Texas will have to find an alternate home for their remaining 3 home games, and the players return home from a tough loss in Denver to deal with the aftermath. It was a rough week for several other teams as well, with both Michigan and Baltimore losing their spots atop their respective conferences as both were knocked down a peg this week. We start our reporting with the story out of San Antonio, but will cover all the games, the shifting standings, and the playoff picture before we look ahead at Week 12, and the first game for the Outlaws in a temporary home.
Memorial Day Weekend Tornadoes Strike San Antonio & Alamodome
In a rarity for south-central Texas a series of Memorial Day Weekend storms struck the San Antonio area, including rare category two through four tornadoes. One such tornado touched down in the city itself, creating a swath of destruction nearly 2 miles long, with the Alamodome facility dead center of the destructive path. While all in the area feel very fortunate that no deaths have yet been reported, the damage is extensive, with more than 34 buildings now classified as unsound, including the home to the Texas Outlaws football team.
Far from the northern plains of Texas and Oklahoma, San Antonio is rarely a location that sees strong tornadic winds of the ferocity witnessed this weekend, but in the span of 3 days, from Saturday through Memorial Day Monday, the area had no fewer than 5 tornadoes of at least a category 2 status reported. Perhaps the biggest of these was the tornado which struck the city itself, now classified as a high-end category 3 twister. This mid-city strike was also the most damaging to the region, with cost for reconstruction and repair estimated as between $2B-$4B.
In addition to the damage done to the Alamodome, which was extensive, there are over 30 additional structures now deemed unsafe, including 3 apartment buildings, 17 businesses, and nearly 15 private homes. Families have been placed in temporary shelters by FEMA as damage assessments are completed, with many expected to be placed in temporary FEMA housing (trailers) until their homes can be repaired or rebuilt.
The Alamodome, the largest and most well-known structure in the path of the tornado, suffered structural damage to its south- and west-facing end, including a partial removal of several roof sections, and the partial collapse of the SW corner of the main structure. Early estimates place the cost of reconstruction at nearly $500M, stating that the entire structure is impacted by the damage to the roof, southern and western sides, with significant damage also seen on the eastern side of the building. Reports indicate that seats and debris from the dome have been located up to 1 mile away, along the path of the tornado.
While there will certainly be more stories to come about the recovery from this tragic natural disaster, the immediate feeling in San Antonio and among the USFL family is one of relief, as the weekend storms struck at a time when the facility, was not in use and both Alamodome and Outlaws staff have been fully accounted for, with no significant injuries. The Outlaws spent this weekend in Denver, facing the Gold, but also watching the reports of the destruction back home. Several players, as well as Coach Landry, have since stated that their homes were not affected by the tornado, though some had hail damage as a result of the wider storm activity. We expect a statement from the Outlaws as well as the USFL in the coming days to address the situation for San Antonio’s USFL club as well as league efforts to support the San Antonio community in the wake of this tragic weekend’s events.
The Outlaws were scheduled to return to the Alamodome for a 2-game homestand, beginning with Week 12’s matchup against Orlando. The Week 12 game has been relocated to Alamo Stadium, with the team forced to refund nearly 20,000 tickets due to the limited capacity of the facility. No decision has yet been made about the Week 13 game against Oakland or the home finale in Week 16 against the Arizona Wranglers, but it is expected that an announcement will be made within days as the team and the league scramble to find a home for the Outlaws. Based on the extent of the damage, the league and team owner William Tatham are going to need to think longer term, as it seems doubtful that full repairs to the Alamodome will be completed in time for the 2016 season, even assuming that the structural damage to the facility is reparable without a full rebuild. Whether that is possible may not be known for several weeks as emergency crews work around what appears to be a very unstable structure to determine the full extent of the damage and its impact on the structural integrity of the facility.
TEXAS OUTLAWS 27 DENVER GOLD 29
With storms racing through central Texas, the Outlaws might have initially figured that they were better off playing this week’s game in Denver on Saturday night, but the Gold posed their own difficulties for the Outlaws, edging out their rival to take a key win and keep them alive in the Wild Card hunt.
This was an odd game in that it was Matt Leinart who racked up nearly 350 yards while Joe Flacco was held to a pretty solid (but hardly Flacco-esque) 282 yards. But, with 4 TDs on the day, we certainly cannot lay the blame for Texas’s loss on their QB. Both teams struggled to run the ball, but both still moved the ball well in the air and we ended up with a classic “who has the ball last” situation.
The game started very well for the Outlaws, with Joe Flacco finding Marques Colston for a 57-yard strike on their first possession of the game. But, much to the surprise of the Outlaws, Denver also uncorked a deep ball early in their first drive, with Matt Leinart catching the Texas secondary flat footed on a 56-yard toss to Golden Tate. The two opening drives would contain the longest and most explosive plays of the entire game. Both defenses would start to use shell coverage to avoid another embarrassing big play, but that meant that both teams were able to march the ball back and forth down the field with more controlled attacks.
Denver was the first to make good on a more traditional drive, adding a field goal in the final seconds of the first quarter to take their first lead of the game. Early in the 2nd Texas responded and again it was Flacco to Colston, though this time only from 4 yards out. The game’s 2nd lead change saw Texas go up 17-13 with 11 minutes left in the half. Denver would then tighten the game to a one point difference with another field goal drive, but after a Texas punt, they would get a chance to take the lead once again.
Denver drove 77 yards on their final drive of the half and once again Leinart connected with Tate. Once again, like with Colston, it was a short throw for the score that gave Denver the lead once again. The game went into the half with Denver up 20-14. With the only score of the 3rd quarter they would expand that lead to 9 points, taking a 23-14 lead into the final period.
In the 4th, Denver expanded the lead to 12 with yet another Zeurlein touchdown, but after nearly 30 minutes of futility, Texas responded with a touchdown, and yes, for the third time in the game it was Marques Colston, this time from 15 yards out that brought Texas within 1 score at 26-21 with just under 4 minutes to play. The Texas D did their part and gave Joe Flacco the ball back just outside the 2-minute mark.
Flacco got Texas the lead at 27-26 in only 4 plays, all passes, as he connected with Marshawn Lynch on a 36-yard catch and run, then dinked and dunked before hitting TE Julius Thomas with the go-ahead score. Up 27-26, Texas went for 2 to make it a 3-poing game, but failed on the attempt. That missed PAT would cost them as they had left Denver 1:11 and 2 time outs down only 1. The Gold would get 3 big plays on their next drive, the first a 19-yard completion to Michael Crabtree. The second a roughing the passer call on a missed Leinart throw, and the final a 14-yard connection to rookie Kevin White. Those three big plays put Denver on the Texas 32 yard line with 12 seconds to play. After a dive to the right hashmark to set up Zeurlein, the Gold sent out their kicker for a 5th attempt, having converted his first four. Zeurlein did not miss and Denver took the lead with only 11 seconds left.
When Texas got the ball back, it was desperation time, but the deep drop by Flacco made it easy for DE Von Miller to bring him to the ground for a 4th sack on the day, four of nine from the Denver defense on the day. That sack ended any hope that Texas could get into range for their kicker and gave Denver a much needed win to move to 5-6 and stay alive in the West.
SAN DIEGO 16 LAS VEGAS 23
The relocated Thunder got quite a reception in Las Vegas as their former fans now loudly and unanimously backed the Vipers in their win over the city’s former club. The Vipers keep their unblemished home record intact thanks to 2 TD passes from Cody Pickett and a nice day from Hardesty and Blount as the Thunder & Lightning duo gaines 114 yards on a combined 32 carries.
POTG: Vipers LB Nate Irving: 6 Tck, 2 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR
PITTSBURGH 38 BALTIMORE 24
The Maulers get a huge win in Baltimore as Andy Dalton throws for 3 scores and Ben Roethlisberger is picked off twice. The win leapfrogs Pittsburgh into 1st place on a tiebreaker over Baltimore. Jimmie Graham caught 8 for 118 and 2 scores. Adam Thielen added 6 for 128 and a score as the Maulers grab the reins of the NE Division with this huge road victory.
POTG: Mauler QB Andy Dalton: 21/26, 310 Yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
ORLANDO 9 MEMPHIS 3 OVERTIME
In a game that saw only 2 field goals in regulation, Orlando pops an OT touchdown to take the win In an ugly game. Knowshon Moreno had 108 yards rushing, while Memphis combined Gurley, Davis, and Anthony Allen for 123 rushing as both QBs struggled. The win puts Orlando over .500 at 6-5, while Memphis drops to 4-7.
POTG: Memphis LB NaVorro Bowman: 7 Tck, 2 Sck
OHIO 6 OAKLAND 48
An ugly road loss for the Glory as Brock Osweiler throws 3 picks and Oakland gets 14 points off of those turnovers. They did not need them as the Ohio defense cannot do anything to slow down the Invaders. Both Donald Brown and Ryan Williams scored twice apiece and Joey Harrington also added 2 TD passes in a pure and simple blowout of the overmatched Ohio Glory.
POTG: Invader HB Donald Brown: 24 Att, 91 Yds, 2 TD
CHICAGO 23 SEATTLE 20 OVERTIME
The Machine get their first win of the season as the defense forces Byron Leftwich out of the game and the offense gets 5 field goals, including a 45-yarder in OT, from kicker William Hopper to earn the 3-point win. Brady Quinn was back under center and goes 32 of 45 for 276 yards and a TD as Chicago holds down the Dragons with Mike Flynn at QB.
POTG: Chicago kicker William Hopper: 5/5 on field goals.
ATLANTA 10 CHARLOTTE 17
The Monarchs improve to 7-4 with a solid defensive game, highlighted by a pick-six from CB Derech Cox. Brad Gradkowski struggled, with 3 sacks and 3 picks in an up and down game. It was 10-10 into the 4th when Brandon Wheedon connected with D. J. Hackett for the game winner.
POTG: Monarch CB Derech Cox: 6 Tck, 1 Int, 1 Def TD, 1 FF
TAMPA BAY 18 JACKSONVILLE 20
Tampa Bay had no answer for Cadillac Williams as the Bulls score the only 2 touchdowns of the game, one of them on a 34-yard Williams dash. Tampa Bay mustered 6 Nate Kaeding field goals, but could not get in the endzone as Jacksonville stopped them twice from inside the 10. Santana Holmes had 5 catches for 153 yards, but did not score as Tampa Bay drops to 2-9 and the Bulls climb out of the SE Division basement for the first time in nearly 3 years.
POTG: Bulls HB Cadillac Williams: 15 Att, 131 Yds, 1 TD
LOS ANGELES 10 ST. LOUIS 18
The Express defense continues to play well, but again to no avail as the anemic LA offense cannot get them the points they need. Tim Tebow went 14 of 36 for only 138 yards, while Ricky Stanzi gets another win for the Skyhawks. Eddie Lacy rushed for 106 and Jordi Nelson caught the game winning TD in the 4th as St. Louis takes over the top spot in the Central and in the West with the win.
POTG: Skyhawk HB Eddie Lacy: 25 Att, 106 Yds
NEW JERSEY 7 WASHINGTON 29
McCallister and backup Jacob Hester combined for 150 yards and a TD while the defense completely stymied Charlie Whitehurst and the Generals’ offense. After David Garrard went down to injury, Cleo Lemon connected with Heath Miller to help Washington build a 29-0 lead before a late garbage time TD for New Jersey avoided the shutout.
POTG: Feds’ kicker Adam Vinatieri: 5 for 5 on field goals
MICHIGAN 11 PORTLAND 19
Portland, like Las Vegas, remains perfect at home, using solid defense and Jonathan Stewart’s run game to knock off the Central-leading Panthers. Ryan Fitzpatrick went 20 of 27 and Stewart scored the Stags’ lone TD as Portland held off Michigan to move to 6-5, with all 6 wins coming at Columbia Sportswear Stadium, and all 5 losses on the road. The Panther loss, combined with the St. Louis win, bumps Michigan to 2nd in the Central.
POTG: Portland LB Nico Johnson: 9 Tck, 1 Sck, 1 FF, 1 FR
PHILADELPHIA 27 HOUSTON 20
A huge upset in Houston as the Stars get 145 yards and 2 scores from the combo of Zac Stacy and Leon Washington. Chad Henne adds a score and completes 23 of 36 as Philadelphia stuns the Gamblers. Mat Hasselbeck threw for 294 but had a costly interception late in the game. Henne connected with 9 different receivers and Philadelphia’s much maligned defense held Houston to 3 of 12 on third down in one of the bigger upsets of the year.
POTG: Stars CB Jason Verritt: 3 Tck, 2 Sck
ARIZONA 27 DALLAS 25
Dallas came close to the upset, but a late Elliott Parson field goal helped Arizona pull out the game in the final seconds. David Carr threw for 358 and 3 scores in the game, while Dallas used 3 quarterbacks, with Manziel going down late in the 2nd and backup Jake Locker also knocked out of the game late. C. J. Spiller rushed for 2 scores for the Roughnecks, but it was just not enough as Larry Fitzgerald and Antonio Bryant both went over 100 yards in the Wrangler victory.
POTG: Arizona QB David Carr: 20/44, 358 Yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
BIRMINGHAM 13 NEW ORLEANS 12
A much-needed win by the Stallions as they upend the Breakers inside the dome. Drew Brees went down with an injury after only 2 pass attempts and Quincy Carter struggled to lead New Orleans. For his part, Cam Newton completed 20 of 42 passing, with 2 TD tosses, both in the 4th quarter as they roared back from a 12-0 deficit to take the win. Dontrelle Inman caught both of the late TDs, while TE Jabari Holloway caught 7 balls for 123 yards in the upset win for the Stallions.
POTG: Stallion DE Greg Hardy: 6 Tck 2 TFL, 1 Sck
Skyhawks Assume Top Spot In Wild Week
It has been a strange run for the Skyhawks, but one they will certainly take. They lost Josh Freeman to the IR back in Week 8, but somehow managed to pull out that game against San Diego. The injury to their starter thrust Ricky Stanzi into the starting role. The career backup who had no starts in his first 4 seasons in the league, but 5 last year, was now on call for the rest of the season. He struggled in his first game, a 45-10 beat down by the Pittsburgh Maulers, but has now put together two solid outings, beating both New Jersey and Los Angeles to move the Skyhawks to an impressive 8-3 record on the year. At the same time Michigan, the division and conference leader struggled to beat Oakland, then lost on the road in Texas, rebounded with a big win over Arizona, but this week was shocked by Portland as they fell to the Stags and their perfect home record.
That set of results has allowed St. Louis to equal Michigan at 8-3, and places St. Louis not only atop the Central Division, but currently also in the driver’s seat for the top seed in the West as losses by Arizona and Oakland have created a 4-team cluster at 8-3 across the West’s three divisions. Somehow it is St. Louis that comes out on top of that grouping, which means that they can control their own way forward.
They will have some tough games down the stretch, including a vitally important rematch with Michigan in Week 15 and a pair of inter-conference games against Seattle and at Denver (in Week 16), but with 11 weeks down, St. Louis is one of the surprises of the year. We don’t think even they can believe they are sitting atop the entire conference, and they are not the only ones shaking their heads at that prospect.
Garrard, Brees, Manziel, & Leftwich All To Miss Action
A rough week for QBs across the league, and while none of the injuries are considered long-term concerns, you never want to see players miss action this late in the year. We have Washington starter David Garrard out 1-2 weeks with an abdominal issue, Seattle’s Byron Leftwich also likely out for 2 weeks with a sprained wrist, New Orleans field general Drew Brees, having a very solid year, will now miss at least Week 12’s game after suffering an injury to his non-throwing shoulder this week. Finally, we have Johnny Manziel dealing with a jammed toe. Add this to earlier injuries to Josh Freeman (IR), Pat White, Matt Gutierrez, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, and Kyle Orton and there are almost as many starting QB’s in civvies as there are on the field this week. It is not a good look for the league and not a good situation for teams desperate to get hot as the season winds towards the post-season.
Chicago & Philadelphia Get Upset Wins on the Road
The Stars and Machine have been two of the biggest disappointments of the season, both mired at or near the bottom of the standings, but this week both got a shimmer of hope from strong performances on the road. With Chicago a 7-point underdog at Seattle and Philadelphia a 10-point dog in Houston, these were not wins that anyone had penciled in for this week, but apparently no one told the Machine and the Stars that they were not supposed to try.
Chicago got three 50+ field goals from their rookie kicker and Brady Quinn found Matt Forte for a score as the Machine stunned the Seattle Dragons with an overtime win. The kicker in question, William Hopper, connected on a 50-yarder to send the game to overtime and then found the range again from 43 yards out to win it in the extra period, giving Chicago their first win in what has been a very long season.
Philadelphia went into their game at Houston not only a 10-point underdog, but without their starting QB Matt Gutierrez, out with his second injury of the season. So it was Chad Henne, who struggled mightily early in the season when Gutierrez went down the first time. This week he fared quite well, completing 23 of 36 passing for 226 yards, 1 score and 1 pick. Philly also found holes in the Houston run defense, with the combo of Stacy and Leon Washington combining for 145 yards. The Stars’ defense also came through with a huge pick of Matt Hasselbeck late in the game and a solid day against Carlos Hyde. It was an unexpected but very welcome win for the Stars, who were not expected to be sitting at 3-8 after 11 weeks, but who are happy to not be 2-9.
Will Portland & Las Vegas Get 1st Road Wins?
Both the Vipers and the Stags seem to be defying the odds with their 2-faced seasons. Both are 6-5 but with 6 home wins and 5 road losses. Can either of them break the whammy on their road performances next week and jump 2 games over .500? Well, they both have a real shot, and if not now, when? Las Vegas has a divisional game against 4-6-1 Dallas. That is not the easiest assignment in the world, especially with Dallas’s home crowd sure to be in full voice, but it is a game where the Vipers should be competitive. The Vipers barely edged Dallas 14-13 in Wynn Arena, but now they need a bit more if they want a W, a road W, the most elusive goal for their season.
Portland has an even better scenario as they head down to LA to face the 3-8 Express, a team that could not score on an empty field. Yes, the Express defense is pretty solid, which could be a concern, but they have yet to score 20 points in a game and have been held to 10 or fewer points 4 times already this season. If Portland can mount any sort of offense against them, they should garner their first road win. They beat them by 10 in Portland, so a similar performance should be all that is needed, if that is something they can do. So, is this the week either the Vipers or Stags break the pattern and get a road win? We have to wait and see, but this is as good a time as any.
We have not yet seen our first team to clinch a playoff spot, but with both Baltimore and Michigan going down to defeat, we have two new conference leaders, both considered Cinderella stories this year. The Maulers now sit at 9-2, with a perfect 4-0 division record, while St. Louis sits atop the West at 8-3, also with a perfect 3-0 division record and a 7-0 mark in the conference. Houston shares a 9-2 mark with Pittsburgh, with Baltimore and New Orleans each a game back, while in the West we have 4teams all at 8-3, with Oakland, Arizona, and Michigan losing out to St. Louis on tiebreakers.
On the bottom end of the playoff group, Orlando sits in 6th position at 6-5, with 3 teams a game back (New Jersey, Washington, and Birmingham all at 5-6). Out West, it is even tighter, with 4 teams all sitting at 6-5, but only 2 currently within the playoff pool. Seattle and Portland have the tiebreakers for now, but Las Vegas and Texas are right there with them.
Despite their win, Chicago still sits in the 28th spot at 1-9-1, a half game ahead of Tampa Bay.
A bad week for quarterbacks as we are likely to see 5 or 6 fewer of the league’s starters in Week 12 than we did in Week 11. Drew Brees, David Garrard, Sam Bradford and Johnny Manziel will not be in action. It seems Matt Gutierrez will also be out, and we it is not looking good for Kyle Orton either.
OUT
DE Travis LaBoy SEA Collarbone IR
CB Joe Haden ARZ Broken Nose 1-2 Weeks
QB David Garrard WSH Concussion 1-2 Weeks
QB Drew Brees NOR Neck 1-2 Weeks
WR Eric Weems STL PCL 1-2 Weeks
WR Deion Branch WSH Concussion 1-2 Weeks
QB Johnny Manziel DAL Toe 1-2 Weeks
QB Sam Bradford NJ Concussion 1-2 Weeks
QB Matt Gutierrez PHI Knee 1-2 Weeks
LB Vontez Burfict TEX Eye 1-2 Weeks
DOUBTFUL
LB Ryan Shazier OHI Concussion
LB Rolando McClain CHA Illness
DT Jerel Worthy MGN Concussion
QB Kyle Orton ATL Pinched Nerve
DE Cameron Jordan NOR Knee
SS Darren Sharper PHI Wrist
QUESTIONABLE
OT Tayo Fabuluje OHI Illness
OT Mike Pearson ORL Finger
CB Pierre Desir POR Scratched Cornea
CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie JAX Toe
Coaches In Trouble with 5 Weeks Left
Five weeks left in the regular season and five weeks for some USFL coaches to save their skins. The life of a USFL coach is a precarious one and we have plenty of coaches feeling the heat right now. Not all will be on the chopping block, but our list of 7 potential coaching changes could produce a pretty big and nasty Black Monday unless some of these teams can show something down the stretch.
Sean Payton (WSH)
After six straight 10-win seasons and six playoff appearances, Sean Payton slipped to 7-9 last year and right now, sitting at 5-6, there is no guarantee he can avoid another losing season. Is that enough to see him ousted in DC? Maybe not, but when you are the Federals, with their long history of shut down defense, and you find yourself ranked 28th in both scoring defense and yards allowed, the pressure will certainly be there to go a different direction. With 5 games left, we think Payton may need more than a 3-2 record, he will need to show that this defense has some teeth.
Mike Shula (TBY)
Yes, Mike Shula has a 112-66 record as the coach of the Bandits, and that includes a league title in 2011, but since that magical first season it has been a rollercoaster ride in Tampa. The departure of both Daunte Culpepper and Vincent Jackson have dramatically altered the feel of the Bandits, and the desire to clean house and reboot the team could easily extend to the coach, especially if Bandits record their first 10-loss season since 2003.
Dick LeBeau (SD)
After a long and solid run with Michigan, Dick LeBeau came to the Thunder with the promise of finally getting the franchise over the hump in the Pacific Division. Last year looked very positive, with the club finishing 9-7. Settled now in San Diego, the hope was that a new “lower drama” situation would help the Thunder, but they now sit at 3-8 and are looking like another team dealing with a potential reboot. LeBeau has a lot of buy in from the owners, so it may be that he would not be included in any house cleaning, but he cannot feel good about having only 3 wins at this late stage of the year.
John Fox (ORL)
It is pretty easy to see what Fox’s issue is in Orlando. 2013 he finished 8-8. 2014 he finished 8-8. He is currently sitting at 6-5 and there is a concern that 8-8 is just inevitable. If he can get the Renegades to 9-7 he has a real shot at a Wild Card and the first Orlando playoff trip since their 2009 title season. But if they fall to 8-8 once again, that could be a sign that Fox is not the man to turn things to the positive side.
Bart Andrus (OHI)
As the hand picked successor to Ohio legend Al Luginbill, Bart Andrus has been given a lot of leeway and a longer tenure than most coaches with a .388 winning percentage could ever expect, but now sitting at 3-8, it is not looking promising for Andrus. He had hopes raised after back-to-back 8-win seasons, but that looks like a far goalpost to reach with 8 losses already on the books. If he hits 10 losses, we think the clock will strike and Ohio will go a different direction in 2016.
Andy Reid (LA)
Reid had astonishing success with the Philadelphia Eagles of the NFL, but has not yet been able to transform the sad sack Express into a winner. He had a strong first season in LA back in 2013, earning a Wild Card berth with a 9-7 record, but a dip to 6-10 last year and a current record of 3-8 do not look very convincing that Reid has this project underway. What is worse is that Reid is considered an offensive guru but the Express are just horrible on offense, averaging only 13.2 points per game. There now appears to be no clear path forward towards having a franchise QB and Reid could simply be considered a bad fit.
Greg Schiano (CHI)
Schiano’s first 2 years seemed like he was building something solid. He went 7-9 as a new pro coach, then jumped up to 10-6 in 2013, but a slide in 2014 (6-10) has now turned into a cliff, with the Machine sitting at 1-9-1 and looking very much like a team without a direction. They cannot score and they give up way too many easy plays to opposing offenses. A mid-season flip-flop on starting QBs between Brady Quinn and rookie Trevor Siemian did not help at all, and with Brian Urlacher making noise about retiring, it could mean curtains for Schiano.
Ranking the 6-5 and 5-6 Teams
Eleven weeks into a sixteen-week season and we have a nice cluster of teams all in range for a final push to the playoffs. When we look at the 9 teams that sit at either 6-5 or 5-6, there are cases to be made for and against each as a possible playoff contender. This is especially noticeable with two teams in the group who have yet to win a game on the road and yet to lose one at home, but it is true of all 9 of them. So here, as a bit of a guide, is our best guess at the rankings of just these 9 teams.
STRONGER (Possible 9-7 teams)
TEXAS (6-5): This is a Texas team that cannot seem to get out of their own way. They are Top 5 in scoring, have the 2nd best passing attack in the league, but also give up over 25 points per game. We just don’t think the defending Western Conference Champion is a mediocre team. We think they have been playing down to the opposition, and that they need to do more in the run game, but they just landed Marshawn Lynch, so we are predicting a pretty strong final 5 games.
SEATTLE (6-5): The Dragons are pretty solid on both sides of the ball, averaging nearly 24 points per game on offense, but allowing only 19.8 per game on defense. They are also plus 9 on takeovers, so why are they only 6-5? Well, consistency is an issue, as this week’s loss to Chicago goes to show. Nine wins may well be a lofty goal for them if they cannot play solidly week in and week out.
ORLANDO (6-5): Every time we predict a good week for the Renegades they bring out a stinker. This is a team that should have 8 or more wins, but they keep finding ways to come out flat. They are 2nd only to Charlotte with a +14 turnover margin, have one of the most dominant players in the game in Calais Campbell, and still cannot get over the hump. Well, this year in the East, over the hump may be 9-7, which feels very doable.
MIDLING (Likely 8-8 teams)
PORTLAND (6-5): Look, the pattern is clear, they win at home, they lose on the road. We have seen this for 11 games, why should we expect this to change any time soon? So, that means 8-8.
LAS VEGAS (6-5): Look, the pattern is clear, they win at home, they lose on the road. We have seen this for 11 games, why should we expect this to change any time soon? So, that means 8-8. Nope, this is not a printing mistake. Las Vegas and Portland are apparently on the exact same path, so why write two different descriptions?
BIRMINGHAM (5-6): When we look at all the 5-6 teams and ask “Which one could reach 8-8?”, Birmingham has the best argument, and that argument is Cam Newton. Get a few 80-yard rushing games from him, and just fewer turnovers and the Stallions could be there. We like the defense a lot more this year than in recent memory, and they have good young talent in their rookie class, so we like their odds more than the next three.
WEAKER (Potentially 7-9 teams)
NEW JERSEY (5-6): We want to like the Generals, we really do, but they are just not there yet, especially on offense, and absolutely when Sam Bradford is not there. This week was pretty good evidence that the defense is not good enough on its own, and the offense is just too inconsistent to trust.
WASHINGTON (5-6): Just the fact that the league’s worst defense is on a 5-6 team is pretty amazing. David Garrard and Deuce McCallister have kept this club afloat when they ought to have folded up shop by now. But…even with that, the defense is so bad, giving up nearly 30 points per game and almost 370 yards every week, this is a team with issues. And just when was the last time you thought of Washington as a bad defensive team? Seems so out of character.
DENVER (5-6): Maybe we gave up on Denver too soon. They always do seem to pull out at least a Wild Card appearance, but something this year seems off. They are not particularly good at running or passing the ball. The defense has Von Miller, who has been turning it on lately, but it seems like not much else. They just feel to us like a team that needs to shake things up a bit, and a 6-10 or 7-9 season might inspire that to happen.
Is Eli at Risk in Memphis?
It seems a weird question to ask after all the trouble Memphis went to in acquiring Manning from the Renegades, but Eli has struggled this year, and there is a possible 2016 rookie coming out of the U. of Memphis who has folks in this part of the country pretty excited about the chance to see him in a Showboat uniform.
Manning’s 2015 numbers are not good. With 2,113 yards passing in 11 weeks, he sits 18th in the league. His TD:Int ratio of 9:14 is among the worst of any starter, which happens when you lead the league in interceptions (Mark Sanchez, for all the critiques is still better at 10:12), and his QB Rating of 66.6 is “satanically bad” for a starter. Consider for a moment that just compared to a pretty mediocre 2014, Manning’s QBR is a nearly full 20 points lower than last year’s 86.0.
Now throw in the excitement being generated about Paxton Lynch, QB of the U. of Memphis Tigers. Considered one of the top QB prospects likely for the 2016 draft, along with Cal’s Jared Goff, North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz, and Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg, Lynch is seen as perhaps the most athletic of the four. He would be a T-Draft prospect for Memphis, and if Eli is not providing what fans want or expect from a veteran QB, then it is very possible that we see a change of direction for the Showboats. That would not necessarily pose a challenge for Manning this year but could provide some offseason drama for sure.
In the meantime, Memphis has 5 weeks to determine if they trust Eli for another season (he is under contract through next year) or do they bring in the rookie and hope he can step in next year? Seems like a good time for Eli to start playing up to his capacity, if, that is, he has capacity left.
Week 12 kicks off with what would normally be a Central Division grudge match, and may still be, but with the Panthers sitting at 8-3 and the Machine struggling at 1-9-1, there are plenty of concerns that NBC may have a blow out on their hands. Saturday also has some blowout potential with a very scary Pittsburgh team hosting New Jersey with no Sam Bradford. Charlotte is in Philly in another early game, while the later afternoon slots have Las Vegas hoping to get that elusive road win in Dallas. We open the night games with the Beltway Brawl as the Blitz head down to DC to face the Feds. The late game was supposed to be in the Alamodome, but now will be played at Alamo Stadium as the city tries to recover from this past weekend’s tornadoes.
Sunday opens up with Orlando at Birmingham and an interesting western clash between the Dragons and the Skyhawks. The afternoon slot has Portland also trying to get their first road win as they travel to LA. We cap off the weekend with Denver visiting Tampa Bay, with the Gold hoping to reach .500 and stay right in the mix in the Wild Card hunt.
Friday @ 8pm ET Michigan (8-3) @ Chicago (1-9-1) NBC
Saturday @ 12pm ET New Jersey (5-6) @ Pittsburgh (9-2) ABC
Saturday @ 12pm ET Charlotte (7-4) @ Philadelphia (3-8) FOX
Saturday @ 4pm ET New Orleans (8-3) @ San Diego (3-8) ABC
Saturday @ 4pm ET Las Vegas (6-5) @ Dallas (4-6-1) FOX
Saturday @ 7pm ET Baltimore (8-3) @ Washington (5-6) NBC
Saturday @ 9pm ET Orlando (6-5) @ Texas (6-5) ESPN/EFN
Sunday @ 12pm ET Oakland (8-3) @ Birmingham (5-6) ABC
Sunday @ 12pm ET Jacksonville (3-8) @ Atlanta (4-7) FOX Regional
Sunday @ 12pm ET Seattle (6-5) @ St. Louis (8-3) FOX Regional
Sunday @ 4pm ET Memphis (4-7) @ Houston (9-2) ABC Regional
Sunday @ 4pm ET Portland (6-5) @ Los Angeles (3-8) ABC Regional
Sunday @ 4pm ET Ohio (3-8) @ Arizona (8-3) FOX
Sunday @ 8pm ET Denver (5-6) @ Tampa Bay (2-9) ESPN/EFN
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