Welcome back for Part 2 of our 2016 USFL Season Preview. We have looked at the big offseason moves across the league, so now it is time to look forward, making bold (often far off base) predictions and previewing each club and their prospects for the season ahead. We will go division by division, then team by team, discussing the hopes and the concerns for each club, then make our picks for both the potential playoff participants, eventual champions, and for the league’s most prestigious award, all to help you prepare for the 2016 season less than a week away.
Regular Season Predictions
We start our annual futile effort to predict the unpredictable with the six USFL divisions. You know by now that we are more often wrong than right. Yes, we predicted Pittsburgh to be a fast riser last year, but totally missed on our predictions for Portland, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay. So, as you look at the arguments we make for some teams to find success and others to flop, don’t get too excited, or too downhearted. We are not good at this, and you should know that by now.
It would be easy to look at last year’s standings and predict another 2-team battle between the Blitz and the Maulers for 2016, but we are feeling a bit edgy about this, so we are going to say it will be a three-team race. Yes, Baltimore and Pittsburgh will be right there, powered by explosive, big play offenses. But we are going to add a team many may not expect, the Philadelphia Stars, back into the mix. We are just not buying that this is truly a 5-11 team. They struggled last year, but they have so many good pieces and adding two impactful players like HB Derrick Henry and DE Malik Jackson is going to help this club rebound quickly. That and we just think that Coach Harbaugh is not going to see his club stay below .500 for another year.
That is where we see the NE Division going, with quite a bit of distance between the top three and the bottom two. We just don’ t see enough improvement this offseason from the Washington Federals, not enough young talent added. As for New Jersey, they are taking a big risk with 2nd year QB Brett Hundley expected to start. He may well be playing on a short rope with Nick Foles coming over from Arizona just in case.
OUR BEST GUESS: We see Pittsburgh getting the upper hand on Pittsburgh to finish 12-4 to the Blitz’s 11-5, with Philly right there at 10-6. Behind them we have Washington at 6-10 and New Jersey rounding out the division with a lot of growing pains at 4-12.
Does anyone really want to win this division? There is no one in the division who looks like a club that can win 11 games or more. So, once again we think the SE Division will be one that a 10- or even 9-win team can take. Of the teams in contention, we think Orlando may have the best shot, if only because they are solid at QB, can run the ball, and have the best defensive player in the game. Behind them we see Atlanta and Charlotte as the most likely choices, but we are watching to see how the Bulls go this year. They had some good wins last year, and if they can get more consistency from QB Robert Griffin III, they could be a tough out. We see Tampa Bay as a team still in an identity crisis after two straight years of high profile QB failures. With Pat White at the helm, this team just does not seem to have enough to be dangerous to anyone but themselves.
OUR BEST GUESS: We have Orlando going 10-6 and taking the division We like the moves Charlotte made, especially adding Chandler Jones to their D-Line, but we are still going to go with Atlanta in 2nd at 9-7, followed by both Charlotte and the Jacksonville Bulls at 8-8, and Tampa Bay coming in at 4-12 for a second year in a row.
The South just feels like a division on the rise. Not only does it have the defending league champion in New Orleans, but a very good Houston squad, and both Birmingham and Memphis are significantly better than they were a year ago. The battles within the division should be epic. We still see the Breakers and Gamblers in a head to head battle, and we are a bit gun shy about picking Birmingham as a dark horse because every year they seem to be a team on the rise and every year they end up hanging around .500. As for Memphis, they added a lot of pieces, but the transition from Eli Manning to Paxton Lynch will determine just how competitive they can be.
OUR BEST GUESS: We see New Orleans and Houston both finishing at 11-5, each suffering a couple of division losses. We are going to put Birmingham slightly up from last year, potentially a Wild Card team at 9-7, and then we have Memphis improving slightly to finish at 6-10, but with Paxton Lynch getting plenty of playing time over the final month of the season.
Last year Michigan seemed to have this locked up, but stumbled down the stretch and watched as St. Louis outlasted them to take the crown. This year we think the Panthers have learned their lesson and will hold onto the top spot. St. Louis is going to be right there as well, and we think Chicago may well be improved enough after a lot of moves this offseason to leapfrog the Ohio Glory, who still have huge questions at QB. We love the idea of Ryan Fitzpatrick opening things up a bit for Coach Lovie Smith, and we think the defense will certainly be better. Can Chicago compete for a title? No, that is asking too much, but from 3-11-1, we could see them winning 7, maybe 8 games.
OUR BEST GUESS: We are going to put Michigan on top at 11-5, with St. Louis a bitt behind at 9-7, then a resurgent Chicago at 7-9, and Ohio struggling to a 3-13 season.
Arizona was so close last year. They thought they had a 2nd title in their grasp, but the Breakers broke their hearts. We think that will inspire even more out of the Wranglers this year. They went out and added a true Red Zone weapon in Jimmie Graham, and that defense is still going to be among the league’ s toughest. The bigger question is who finishes in 2nd. Your instinct might be to say Texas for sure, but not so fast. Dallas was a much improved team last year, and we think they have a shot. It will be tough just because the Outlaws have an outstanding offense, with Flacco, Colston, and now Marshawn Lynch for the entire season. But Texas is also in franchise limbo, playing all over the state and rumored to possibly be transplanted to Oklahoma by year’s end. That will wear on the team, so we think Dallas jumps over them in a move to become a playoff contender.
OUR BEST GUESS: Arizona takes the division by 2-3 games, with Dallas in 2nd and earning a Wild Card. Texas finishes around .500, and both Las Vegas and Denver bring up the rear, with both somewhere between 5-7 wins.
This may be the toughest division to figure out. We thought Oakland would dominate last year and they could not even hold on to the division title, with Portland stealing it away in the final week of the season last year. But now Fitzpatrick is gone and Portland’s reign will depend on Marcus Mariota, who saw very few snaps as a rookie. LA has a new QB, but is that enough to resuscitate the moribund Express offense? San Diego has their own QB controversy brewing after they brought in Christian Ponder from the NFL to compete with Joe Webb. The team that may actually be in position to turn heads is Seattle. They have a veteran QB, a solid run game with Joseph Addai, and they could have the best defense in the division, especially if rookie CB Xavien Howard looks as good in live games as he has in camp.
OUR BEST GUESS: We think that like the SE Division, this one will be close, with 10 wins likely taking the crown. We are going to go for the dark horse and pick Seattle as that 10-win club. They will be followed closely by a 9-7 Oakland squad, then Portland, rebuilding just a bit after losing both Fitzpatrick (Trade) and Stewart (Retirement). Hard to decide between San Diego and Los Angeles for 4th place. Either club could make a move, or either could fall flat on their faces, so let’s say that both clubs finish somewhere in the 6-win area.
8 Bold Predictions
You know we love to go out on a limb, so we asked our bullpen to give us their biggest home run swings (ok, we are mixing sports a bit). Here are 8 predictions that range from "out there" to "wait, what?".
Andy Dalton Gets his MVP after a 2nd Brilliant Season
Picking Pittsburgh to jump from 5-11 into contention for a Summer Bowl was a bold pick last year. We are not entirely sure that after coming off an OPOTY season where he threw for over 5,000 yards and 47 touchdowns, picking Andy Dalton for MVP is all that bold. But, with other big name QBs always in the mix, from Big Ben, to Matt Hasselbeck, to Joe Flacco, and now Drew Brees as defending champ, well, the competition will be fierce.
Rookie Derrick Henry gains over 1,500 Yards for the Stars
This may not seem insane at first glance. We know that the Stars love to push their run game, and we all saw how Henry played at Alabama, but when you look at recent USFL history, 1,500 yards is a huge deal, and for a rookie? Almost unthinkable. Even Carlos Hyde, in his amazing first year, did not crack 1,500 (He fell just about 50 yards short). So, what makes us think that Henry has a shot? Well, first off, it is the Stars. They don’t have a Matt Hasselbeck to offset the run, so they are going to rely on Henry more than most teams rely on a back. Secondly, other than maybe the Maulers, there are not a lot of sturdy run defenses in the NE Division. We think Henry could well be among the league leaders for rushing, and we are going to push for 1,500.
Both Paxton Lynch and Christian Hackenberg are Starting by Week 10
Both are possible, but neither is starting the season as the team’s number one. Honestly, we expect Eli Manning to do all he can to boost his value in a contract year when he knows he is likely heading into the free agency market. If he is playing at his best, maybe Paxton Lynch gets a season like Marcus Mariota had last year, watching a veteran put together a great year and learning along the way. As for Hackenberg, well, he is not quite as polished as Lynch, nor as athletic, but the QB in front of him in Ohio, Brock Osweiler, is hardly a sure thing, so the odds are good that the Glory will pull the plug if he cannot deliver.
Adrian Peterson Finishes the Year with More Yards than Starter Darren McFadden
This one could be tough. Peterson had a great bounce-back year after suffering a dual MCL/ACL tear in 2014, but he now comes to the USFL after playing nearly a full NFL season and we have seen a ton of backs struggle physically as they jump from fall to spring. That said, few players are as motivated or as fit as Peterson. He is a truly a wonder. Pair that with pretty low expectations for McFadden and we can envision a situation where Peterson slowly starts attracting more and more carries and takes over the lead spot by midseason.
One of the 2015 Division Winners Ends the Year Under .500
This almost always happens, so that is not very bold. The mystery is always who it will be. The easy money is Portland, bringing in a new QB and playing without Jonathan Stewart. But, we also look at St. Louis and wonder how legit they are. We don’t think it will be either Arizona or Baltimore, but pretty much any team can be one key injury away from a season going South. Just look at what happened to Philly last year when Gutierrez went down. Our money is on Portland, but just because they have more dramatic changes to the roster than any of the other 2015 division winners.
Someone Other than Calais Campbell Wins the Sack Title
It has been 7 years since anyone not named Campbell won the sack race. That is an insane fact, just nuts. So why this year? Well, for one, we are just expecting a run like that to end. Secondly, we love what we saw out of Von Miller last year, a year in which his body had to be exhausted playing back-to-back seasons. We see Miller as the candidate to possibly dethrone the King. It won’t be easy. Miller does not have a man mountain at DT like Campbell has with Albert Haynesworth, but Miller’s game is about speed and elusiveness, so we think he can still be very effective even if double teamed. Maybe it is laughable to think Campbell won’t lead the league in sacks, but some year it is going to happen.
Sam Bradford Gets LA’s Offense Into the Upper Half of the League
Look, Bradford had his struggles in New Jersey, so it is not like the Express brought in a Roethlisberger or Flacco. But Bradford is simply far more talented than any QB the Express have had in several years. He has an outstanding HB to lean on, one who is a dual threat, in Reggie Bush, and the young receivers in LA may not be household names, but there is talent there. Add a sure fire safety valve like Jason Whitten and this team could be a very big surprise on offense.
A Coach Will be Fired By Week 12
Again, not the most outrageous of predictions, but a change that early is rare. That said, there are a few coaches who squeeked by in 2015 and will be on a very short leash. We could easily see a team like Tampa Bay letting Mike Shula go early, especially if the lack of QB proves as brutal as it seems on paper. Another coach who has to be entering the year feeling the heat is Andy Reid. The man was an offensive genius with the Eagles in the NFL, but so far his LA teams have been laughably bad on offense. If getting Bradford cannot turn that around, then Reid is in big trouble. Finally, if we look for a team that could realistically start the year out 0-8, putting pressure on ownership to make a move, it could be the Las Vegas Vipers, and while the team is only in its 2nd year in the desert, Coach Roman is in season 3 of his contract, and we have not seen anything like improvement since he showed up, so he too could be in real trouble.
2016 Preseason Power Rankings
We once again will use the ESPN/EFN Power Rankings as our guide for our team-by-team breakdown and preseason analysis. We will revisit these power rankings at the end of each quarter of the season to see how teams have met, exceeded, or fallen short of our expectation.
THE SUPERIOR SEVEN
1) NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS
13-3 in 2015, League Champions
Why fans are excited for 2016: After 33 seasons, the Breakers finally broke through and brought home the John Bassett Trophy. Their win over the Arizona Wranglers was celebrated for weeks in the Big Easy. Spurred by an underrated defense and the leadership of QB Drew Brees, the Breakers enter 2016 as the league champions.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: The Championship hangover is real. Teams tend to lack fire after winning a title, but unlike many champions, the Breakers did not suffer huge hits in free agency or a large cluster of retirements. They return a very similar team to the field for 2016, and that Is not necessarily a bad thing.
Player to keep an eye on: LT Marcus Gilbert comes over to the Breakers from San Diego in free agency and immediately finds himself protecting Drew Brees’s blind side. His ability to keep defenders off of Brees could be the difference between a run at a repeat and a post-title slump.
Our Best Guess: New Orleans is a solid club, with little turnover from last year. We think they may lose a few more games due to everyone playing up to their level, since they have the League Champ target on their backs, but come playoff time, we expect New Orleans to be right there.
Predicted Finish: 11-5, 1st in Southern Division
2) ARIZONA WRANGLERS
12-4 in 2015, Conference Champions
Why fans are excited for 2016: This team came within 1 score of winning a 2nd title in 3 years, and there are few teams in the West who look like they can compete with them. They added the league’s TD leader in TE Jimmie Graham, and they have one of the best defenses in all of football. There is a lot to like about the Wranglers.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: The one position where Arizona may be a bit thin is perhaps the most important one on the field. Last year, David Carr missed several games and Nick Foles came in and played like a USFL starter. Now Foles is in New Jersey and the backup is either Jim Sorgi or NFL import Ryan Nassib, neither of whom have much of a track record. Oh, and their star back is eligible for AARP benefits, so there is some fear there too.
Player to keep an eye on: Fans are expecting a lot from TE Jimmie Graham, but Arizona is not Pittsburgh and David Carr is not going to be throwing him 18+ touchdowns. That said, Graham is about as good a red zone target as any in the league, so Carr could see his numbers improve, helping to take some pressure off the Wrangler defense to hold teams down.
Our Best Guess: Texas and Dallas will give Arizona some competition, but in the end we still see the Wranglers as the most complete team in the conference. Another Summer Bowl appearance is certainly not out of the question.
Predicted Finish: 13-3, 1st in SW Division
3) PITTSBURGH MAULERS
13-3 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: The 2015 Maulers were one of the stories of the year, with a killer D-line combo, a dynamic passing game, and some budding young stars. The sudden rise, an 8 game swing from a 5-11 2014 to 13 wins in 2016, paired with a playoff win in Baltimore, has Pittsburghers thinking that a title run is in the cards this year.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: The one area where the Maulers still have some big question marks is at HB. The duo of Marcus Lattimore and Chris Sims is not going to terrify opposing defenses, but if they can do enough to keep them honest, the passing game can thrive. Mauler fans wish the club had found either a USFL or NFL free agent to do more, but the cap can only support so much talent.
Player to keep an eye on: Free Agent safety Tyvon Branch has big shoes to fill. Comparison with Sean Taylor is not fair, but it is natural. Branch is likely not going to spend the time impacting the run game that Taylor did, but if he can effectively play center field, then free safety Robert Sands might see more time closer to the line of scrimmage.
Our Best Guess: The Maulers are a hot pick to win it all, and we share the enthusiasm that many have for this team. Whether it is the offense of Dalton-Thielen-Cruz-and Mike Williams or the D-line with Jared Allen, Aaron Donald, and Dwight Freeney, this is a team that can beat you in a variety of ways. We think that makes them a favorite in the division and in the Eastern Conference.
Predicted Finish: 13-3, First in NE Division.
4) BALTIMORE BLITZ
13-3 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: The offense. For a second year in a row, Ben Roethlisberger was named league MVP and the Blitz offense, particularly the passing game, was nearly unstoppable. Blitz fans are feeling very confident that they can once again with the division and this time they believe they will knock off the Maulers and find themselves back in the Summer Bowl.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: The pass rush. With Robert Quinn now in Ohio and Joe Tafoya retired, the Blitz are starting a brand new set of edge rushers in Vernon Olivier and Da’Quan Bowers taking over the pressure game for Coach Caldwell. Blitz fans are not looking forward to a year when the offense has to carry the bulk of the responsibility to win games.
Player to keep an eye on: WR Dwayne Jarrett. A free agent from Atlanta, Jarrett is expected to serve as the 3rd receiver and slot specialist. Baltimore does not use 3 WR often, as it pulls All-USFL TE Antonio Gates off the field, but Jarrett will have a chance to demonstrate his skill set when Baltimore opens up and spreads the defense out.
Our Best Guess: The Blitz are too talented to fall far, even if their pass rush is not as productive as in past years. They have a solid secondary, headed by safety Adam Archuleta, and they can count on their offense to score a lot of points. We can imagine them falling behind Pittsburgh, but no further.
Predicted Finish: 11-5, 2nd in NE Division
5) HOUSTON GAMBLERS
12-4 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: Houston was a very good team, with both offensive and defensive stars playing well last year. They are also the only team in the league that will be starting no newcomers. Yes, some players are stepping from the bench to the first team, but they are all players who know Coach Phillips’s system well.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: Players moving to the starting lineup can be a good thing or it could mean that the team has not done enough to replace starting talent with new starting talent. Is Kenny Vaccaro as good as Patrick Chung? Can Janoris Jenkins really replace Shaun Springs?
Player to keep an eye on: DE Dante Fowler. After a strong rookie season, Houston was impressed enough with Fowler to let Malik Jackson walk despite a 9-sack season. Fowler now steps in and is expected to equal or improve upon that number.
Our Best Guess: As long as Matt Hasselbeck is upright, and has the kind of talent that Houston has at receiver and back, the Gamblers will be dangerous. A few questions on defense, but we expect the Gamblers to be right there with the Breakers once again.
Predicted Finish: 11-5, 2nd in Southern Division
6) MICHIGAN PANTHERS
10-6 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: The Panthers have perhaps the best run game in the USFL, led by LeVeon Bell, and now they add NFL fullback Kyle Juszczyk, one of the best dual blocker/receiver options at the position. That alone will pose more problems for their opposition. They also improved at LB with the arrival of Cody Glenn vis Free Agency.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: While Kirk Cousins continues to improve as a decision maker, we are still baffled by Michigan’s apparent lack of urgency to improve the WR group. Now, with Hines Ward playing golf somewhere, they have perhaps the least impressive WR group in the league: Cody Latimer is their number one, followed by free agent Jerrel Jernigan and slot man Ted Ginn Jr. it is just not a WR group that many will fear, which makes the Panthers’ offense an easier one to defend.
Player to keep an eye on: Jernigan is on his 4th team in 6 years, and this is his best shot yet to prove he can be a playmaker. He had 64 catches as a rookie in Birmingham, but the years in LA and Chicago since have just not shown much. Michigan sees something in him, but we are not sold on the idea that he has enough skill to be a consistent starter in the league.
Our Best Guess: Defense and a run game can get you pretty far, and in a relatively weak Central Division, Michigan could once again compete for a division title, but don’t they want more?
Predicted Finish: 10-6, 1st in Central Division
7) TEXAS OUTLAWS
10-6 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: Three new members of their 5-man secondary give fans hope that the Outlaws will not have to be a team that outscores teams to win. They still can outscore teams and win shoot outs, but the hope is that the new secondary, featuring CBs Jaylen Watkins and Benjamin Richards alongside Pacman Jones, and backed by SS Tashaun Gipson, will be able to keep the opposition from matching Joe Flacco score for score.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: The departure of Brandon Marshall could be a bigger issue than most Outlaw fans want to admit. Justin Hunter was brought in as a free agent, but he is not in the same league with Marshall when it comes to being a deep ball threat. Joe Flacco is hoping that a full year with Marshawn Lynch as the lead back means less pressure on the passing game, but if Lynch struggles, it will have to be Flacco again, but without a key weapon.
Player to keep an eye on: More than anything else, the Texas defense needs for Reynaldo Wynn to return to the form that had him closer to 20 sacks than 10. Last year he managed 12, which is a respectable number, but Texas needs more out of him and the entire front 7 if their defense is going to hold up all year.
Our Best Guess: We think Texas is going to be a solid team, but playing all their “home” games across the state, the uncertainty of their future, and the need to consistently put 30 or more points on the board to win is going to be exhausting. That combination of psychological concerns could be enough to see the Outlaws slip a bit, and Dallas is right there waiting for that.
Predicted Finish: 9-7, 3rd in Central
THE SOLID SEVEN
8) OAKLAND INVADERS
10-6 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: Coach Green did not stand pat this offseason, not after a second year in a row with a late season swoon. He added speed at HB with Knile Davis now partnered with Donald Brown in the backfield. He added solid tackling in LB Tavares Gooden, and he may have found a gem in CB William Jackson III, who is expected to start in the nickel.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: The swoons have to be a concern. Despite having a very solid defense, led by DE Cliff Avril and MLB Bobby Wagner, Oakland blew a few games that they should have won. Mental toughness and more of a killer instinct is needed for the Invaders to live up to their potential.
Player to keep an eye on: The Invaders have not been happy with their kicking game, so they went out and invested in it this year. They used an early draft pick on the best kicker in the college game, FSU’ s Roberto Aguayo, and then they paid top dollar for one of the game’s best punters, Mat McBriar. So, can improved special teams help them avoid a late season collapse?
Our Best Guess: On paper the Invaders remain the clear frontrunner in the Pacific. Now, can they turn talent into consistent wins? We won’t know until Week 10, when they have faded in the past. A great start is nice, but a strong finish is needed to give us all faith in this club.
Predicted Finish: 11-5, 1st in Pacific
9) ORLANDO RENEGADES
9-7 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: The Renegades made their return to the playoffs last year after a long drought. They won and advanced before falling in the Divisional Round, but it was a good start. Now, this year they have improved their offensive line with a trade to bring Max Jean-Gilles over, and by signing OT Cameron Fleming. That could be a huge boost to them as they try to become more than Calais Campbell’s team.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: The offense remains a concern. They have some talent in Russell Wilson, Knowshon Moreno, and Michael Jenkins, but they don’t seem to have a clear offensive philosophy. Are they a smashmouth team? A vertical game team? Do they have enough speed? Do they have enough power? The answer is simply unknown.
Player to keep an eye on: Not a newcomer, but WR Jeremy Maclin has to be a bigger part of the offense for Orlando to succeed. Michael Jenkins is a possession guy, slot receiver DeSean Jackson is a deep threat, but Maclin has yet to really define himself. He needs to if Orlando is going to be more than a competitor within their division and a minor speed bump outside of it.
Our Best Guess: We are bullish on Orlando, perhaps not at the league-wide level, but as a very real contender to take the division title. The defense added a quality signing in DT Jerel Worthy, and rookie Deion Bush has looked good at FS in camp.
Predicted Finish: 10-6, 1st in SE Division
10) PORTLAND STAGS
10-6 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: Despite loving what Ryan Fitzpatrick gave them last year, most Stag fans are eager to watch Marcus Mariota in orange and brown. The Stags had a lot of turnover this offseason, especially on offense, but fans trust in Coach Pep Hamilton to produce offense with this squad, especially if he can find ways to let Mariota use all of his talents as a passer and rusher.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: The loss of Jonathan Stewart, a surprise retirement in August, leaves a huge hole in the Stags’ plans for the year. They did their best to replace him, trading Fitzie to Chicago for the 1st overall pick in the Open Draft, a pick they used on Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott, but Elliott opted for the glitz of the Dallas Cowboys, so now the Stags are looking at Felix Jones and LeMichael James and wondering if they have enough to operate what had been a run-first offense.
Player to keep an eye on: It has to be Mariota. We expect Pep Hamilton to put a lot of this offense on his shoulders. The Stags have to pivot to more passing and more spread formations. They just don’t have the reliable lead back in place to run last year’s offense any more, and Mariota has some skills that Fitzpatrick just did not.
Our Best Guess: We like Mariota, but we think he will need time. We are not fans of the current RB group, so we think Portland will need time to regroup, redefine their offense, and maybe even seek another option. We think that may be enough to keep them from repeating as division champs.
Predicted Finish: 9-7, 3rd in Pacific Division
11) ST. LOUIS SKYHAWKS
10-6 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: St. Louis is banking on stability to help them step up in 2016. They had only minimal changes to their starting lineup, Brett Williams at RG (from the NFL), Angelo Crowell at LB (Trade), and rookie Deiondre Hall at FS are the only modifications, so the Skyhawks are looking for the team’s familiarity with each other and the steady leadership of Josh Freeman to propel them into the postseason again.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: While a lack of major turnover can be good, it rarely provides dramatic improvement in a team. St. Louis may again be one of those teams that finds its way to the postseason only to face a quick exit. They are not elite on either offense or defense, so how do they get past some of the conference’s better teams?
Player to keep an eye on: Crowell comes over from Las Vegas, having had his best season as a pro last year and will likely take over at MLB, which could help Aldon Smith be even more effective on the edge. St. Louis does not look like a team that can depend on their front 4 to generate pass rush (Kony Ealy & Adrian Clayborn at DE just don’t have that kind of burst), so blitzing Crowell, Smith, or safety Kendrick Lewis may be a regular part of the plan.
Our Best Guess: We are not as high on the “stand pat” strategy of the Skyhawks as some are. We think that the odds are that others can catch or surpass a team that does not keep improving. Yes, the Skyhawks can win against weaker teams, but we are not convinced they can knock off the Arizona’s, Texas’s or maybe even Michigan’s in the conference.
Predicted Finish: 9-7, 2nd in Central
12) DALLAS ROUGHNECKS
8-7-1 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: The Roughnecks had their first winning season since moving from Boston, giving Dallas fans plenty to be excited about. Then, this offseason, they go out and sign two very solid defenders to add to their squad, LB Melvin Ingram and DT Brandon Mbane. Mbane’s presence alongside Star Lotuleilei will make it very tough for teams to double up on the edge rushers. We could see Larry English and Elvis Dumervil really step up this year, and that is something Dallas fans would relish.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: The Dallas offense has some weapons, but we are not sure they have what it takes to be elite. Rashard Mendenhall dropped from 1,200 to 800 yards last year, and fans fear the cliff has hit him. The receivers (Wright, Harvin, and free agent Tiquan Underwood, are not exactly a murderer’s row. And, rumors that Johnny Manziel spent more time in the clubs than in the gym this winter are not going over well.
Player to keep an eye on: Honestly, it is Manziel. The former Aggie improved his numbers from 2014 to 2015, with a higher QB rating (90.3 vs. 82.2), better completion percentage (68.1 vs. 63.6), and more yards (3,145, v. 2,986), but his TD production dipped by 6 scores. The Roughnecks need Manziel to continue to improve in his 3rd season. They need him to be smart with the ball but also to take enough risks to produce big plays.
Our Best Guess: We like the defensive additions, hopeful that the offense can do enough to keep them in games, and we think that coach Sherman has the team believing it itself, which can be half the battle for a club on the rise.
Predicted Finish: 10-6, 2nd in SW Division
13) SEATTLE DRAGONS
7-9 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: Seattle had nice improvement in 2015, especially on defense. They won the same number of games as in 2014, but they were more aggressive and more able to stay with the better teams in the league. The hope this year is that they can take another step, one that adds more wins to the record.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: The defense was a strength last year, but the Dragons now have two new starters in the secondary, one of them a rookie (Xavien Howard). Can the new secondary come together and work with each other to help the front 7? Can the offense sustain possession to limit the reps the D has to be on the field?
Player to keep an eye on: LB Khalil Mack could spend even more time blitzing this year. After jumping from 3 sacks as a rookie to 7 last year, Coach Mitchell wants to maximize his role as a pass rusher, and that could very well turn this defense from a tough one to a brutal one. Mack’s versatility and mobility could be the best argument for the Dragons staking a claim to the division.
Our Best Guess: We like several aspects of this Dragon club, from an aggressive blitzing D to the stability at QB with Byron Leftwich. We love how Joseph Addai responded in his first year since coming over from Birmingham, and we like Mike Wallace’s big play ability. This could be a darkhorse team in 2016.
Predicted Finish: 10-6, 2nd in Pacific
14) CHARLOTTE MONARCHS
9-7 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: How could you not be excited by the arrival of Adrian Peterson? Yes, he is not the dominant back he was back in 2012 or 2013, but he could still have a huge impact on the Monarch offense, making life a lot easier for Brandon Wheedon and scaring defenses every time he touches the ball.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: We are worried about Wheedon, who has been throwing far too many picks for comfort, and about a WR group that has just not stepped up. D. J. Hackett is a solid number one, but the Monarchs need more from both Hakeem Nicks and James Hardy if they want to compete offensively with some of the league’ s best.
Player to keep an eye on: As much press as AD is getting, it is Chandler Jones on the defense who we think will have the biggest impact. He takes over after the retirement of Jevon Kearse, and the hope is that he can equal, or even best, Kearse’s production.
Our Best Guess: Even with a very talented 2-headed HB situation (McFadden and Peterson), we are looking at the Monarch offense and wondering if they have enough. Perhaps in the SE Division, which looks like it could again be the league’s weakest, but in the big picture, just not enough to feel good about.
Predicted Finish: 8-8, 3rd in SE Division
THE STRIVING SEVEN
15) BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS
8-8 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: The Stallions added some talent on defense in the shape of free agent DT Corey Liuget (WSH) and free agent CB LaDarius Webb (MGN). That, plus the maturation of their young offensive stars, and fans feel they can make a move.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: We have heard this song before. It seems like every year we think Birmingham is poised to make a major leap in their results, and each year they finish within 1-game of .500. That won’t do it in a division with two clear Summer Bowl contenders ahead of them.
Player to keep an eye on: The arrival of Corey Liuget may not seem like a big deal, but if he can absorb some of the guard’s attention, it means that DE’s Greg Hardy and Derrick Harvey could see more one-on-ones, and Birmingham could be a better team on third down. That would be a huge add for Birmingham.
Our Best Guess: It is so hard to look at Birmingham and see a team ready to knock off either New Orleans or Houston. They could be improved, but we are not sure it will make much difference in their final record.
Predicted Finish: 8-8, 3rd in Southern Division
16) PHILADELPHIA STARS
5-11 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: Two new additions have Stars fans starry-eyed. On offense it is all about Alabama HB Derrick Henry, but don’ t discount how big the addition of former Houston DE Malik Jackson is. The Stars think they are better on both sides of the ball, and if their faith in Henry results in big games as a rookie, they could bounce back strong in 2016.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: There is a creeping doubt in Philly that Matt Gutierrez is the solid starter he started off as. Some are worried that defenses have figured out his tendencies and that without an all-league run game he just cannot carry the team. That concern seems legitimate after last year, when he just could not produce wins, or stay healthy.
Player to keep an eye on: The easy answer is HB Derrick Henry, but let’s also take a look at FB Ira Johnson, who comes over in free agency with the mission to create holes for Henry to run through.
Our Best Guess: We like Philly to rebound. The defense is improved, though rookie nickel Prince Charles Iowah, could be picked on early. We like the LB group with Morrison, Lloyd, Connor, and Suggs, and we think Malik Jackson will have an impact as a pass rusher after a 9-sack season as a rookie in Houston.
Predicted Finish: 9-7, 3rd in NE Division
17) DENVER GOLD
7-9 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: After nearly 20 years, the Gold have a new coach, and while there are a lot of question marks about John Hufnagel’s transition from Canadian ball to the USFL, there is also excitement that some of the wide open style of the CFL will find its way to Denver. The addition of Jamaal Charles to the backfield seems to point to an interest in more 1-back sets, more draws, screens, and HB catches, and more big plays.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: While the offense may benefit from John Hufnagel’s CFL pedigree, there is serious concern about a defense that struggled last year and which lost 3 starters. Two rookies will start on defense, but we all know who is the centerpiece of the Gold’s D, it will be all about Von Miller and Denver fans’ hopes that he will be elite again.
Player to keep an eye on: Outside of Miller, the player who needs to prove that they are elite this year is DT Ndamukong Suh. His presence in the middle is key to Miller and Justice Cole getting pressure on the QB. He needs to not only occupy space, but disrupt blocking schemes to make it easier for Miller and Cole to get mismatches and find the QB.
Our Best Guess: Denver is a tough team to figure out. They could gel early and be a very tough team to face each week, or they could struggle to find themselves and once again slip below .500. We are feeling a bit more of the latter, but we admit we could be all wrong about this club.
Predicted Finish: 7-9, 4th in SW Division
18) WASHINGTON FEDERALS
7-9 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: Deuce McCallister did not retire. He is back for another year, and there is a generally good feeling about the defense, which added DT Atiyyah Ellison and LB Kevin Burnett.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: Deion Branch is gone, and fans are not sure if the Feds did enough to replace his production in the offseason. Brandon LaFell becomes the top target for David Garrard, with Kelvin Benjamin now opposite him as a starter. Is that pair enough to help Washington compete in a very top-heavy division?
Player to keep an eye on: Slot receiver and rookie wideout Tyreek Hill is one of the fastest players in recent years to sign with the league. If his ball skills and route running can improve, he could be a real weapon, turning slants into sprints, and hooks into home runs.
Our Best Guess: We see the Federals still as a middle of the pack club. The defense could be better, but likely will not be dominant. The offense is only as good as Deuce McCallister’s 78-year-old legs can carry them. (OK, exaggeration, but at 35, Deuce is playing on borrowed time.
Predicted Finish: 8-8, 4th in NE Division
19) JACKSONVILLE BULLS
5-11 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: Bulls Nation is putting a lot of faith in QB Robert Griffin III to have a strong sophomore spring season. We have seen it before, a QB who comes over from the NFL needs a year to get their legs under them. Bulls fans feel that Griffin is primed for a huge comeback year. If that is the case, the Bulls could make a leap forward in a division that lacks a true powerhouse franchise.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: While we like Griffin, we are not huge fans of the receivers he has available. The top 4 targets for Griffin will be Sinorice Moss, Reuben Randle, Tavon Austin, and TE Kellen Winslow II. Is anyone shaking in their boots at that roster of receivers? We did not think so.
Player to keep an eye on: The newest Bull on the defensive side, veteran SS Patrick Chung, could be the most important. Chung will be the defensive play caller and leader on the field, but he needs help from others in this defense in order for the Bulls to move out of the bottom half of the league in points allowed.
Our Best Guess: We think the Bulls could surprise, and even 8-8 could garner them 2nd place in the division. A lot will depend on the defense and on HB Cadillac Williams. If he can be a threat each week, then the passing game benefits and even a mediocre receiver group can become dangerous.
Predicted Finish: 8-8, 2nd in SE Division
20) SAN DIEGO THUNDER
6-10 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: I think we all may have expected too much out of the Thunder last year. They had some good games, and they added a true lead back in Ryan Williams this offseason, so there is hope that they can be a much better team in 2016. A lot will depend on their QB position to see if they can make that happen.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: The QB position is the big mystery. Joe Webb got his chance to be a full-time starter after a very successful career as a backup in Washington, but his first year produced a 3:4 TD:INT ratio (12 to 16), and a QB rating of only 71.7. As an insurance policy, San Diego recently added NFL QB Christian Ponder. So now you have a full blown QB competition. That can produce players playing at their best, or it can divide the locker room and produce incertainty.
Player to keep an eye on: Our favorite new addition to the Thunder is rookie LB Myles Jack out of UCLA. First off, what a great name for a hard-hitting LB. But, more importantly, Jack will be on the outside, able to blitz the QB, contain outside runs, and provide a nice bookend to Shantee Orr on the other side. San Diego has an underrated LB group (With Kyle Van Noy and A. J. Hawk inside), and Jack could be the piece they need to become elite.
Our Best Guess: We think the Thunder will be improved in 2016, especially if they can get a run game going with Williams. The QB concerns are real though, and that puts a ceiling on where we think they can go.
Predicted Finish: 7-9, 4th in Pacific Division
21) ATLANTA FIRE
6-10 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: This is a tricky question. We are not getting a lot of energy out of Fire fans after a pretty lackluster offseason. The additions (SS Tra Battle, LE William Gholston, HB Chris Ivory) are just not splashy signings, and the club seems to lack true big play capacity on offense. The LB group (Ellerbe-Keuchley-Willis) remains elite, but is that enough?
Why fans are nervous about 2016: Lots of questions, but the run game, now without Steven Jackson, has to be the biggest concern. Atlanta did little to address it and now enter the season looking like rookie Kenyan Drake and veteran Chris Ivory will share carries unless one of them shows some real dynamism. That puts even more pressure on Kyle Orton, and we are not convinced he does well with that kind of pressure on him.
Player to keep an eye on: Kenyan Drake played second fiddle to Derrick Henry at Alabama. Now he has a chance to make a name for himself. If he can show some spark early in the season, he could take on a lead back role, rather than splitting carries with Chris Ivory.
Our Best Guess: We see Atlanta as a team whose playoff window may have closed. Not enough new faces to give us confidence that they will improve from 2015. In this league, if you are not moving forward, you are falling behind.
Predicted Finish: 5-11, 4th in SE Division
THE SINKING SEVEN
22) MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS
5-11 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: If it were just the arrival of U. of Memphis QB Paxton Lynch, we would be very skeptical of enthusiasm around Memphis. After all, Eli Manning is still expected to get the starts this year. But in adding both veteran deep threat Brandon Marshall and NFL “swiss army knife” Cordarelle Patterson, the Showboats also have more weapons and more big play potential. That could make them a team to watch.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: Rex Ryan took the job in Memphis hoping to replicate his father’s monstrous 46 defense, but we just don’t see the talent on that side of the ball to make it happen. Other than NaVorro Bowman, the LB group is not impressive, and the pass rush of Mario Williams and Antonio Smith has just never materialized as a major factor. We just don’t see that enough was done to add to this side of the ball.
Player to keep an eye on: We will all be watching Cordarelle Patterson, in the return game, and whenever he is on the field on offense. He is a dynamic, elusive, and electrifying player with the ball in his hands.
Our Best Guess: We see Memphis providing fans with plenty of big plays and exciting moments, but still finding ways to lose games. The defense has to be more than the sum of its part if this club hopes to avoid the basement. We are not sure it can do that.
Predicted Finish: 6-10, 4th in Southern Division
23) NEW JERSEY GENERALS
6-10 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: There is a lot of young talent on this team, from WR Odell Beckham Jr, to CB Devin McCourty, and now, potentially, former USC quarterback Brett Hundley. The Generals could be a team that just needs to mature in order to be competitive. Fans who think that maturation comes this year are excited about the possibilities.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: The Generals are all about potential, particularly at QB. The truth is we do not know what they are going to get from Hundley, which is why they signed Nick Foles from the Wranglers as well. We also don’t know if they have the defensive strength to stay in games with some of the dynamic offenses within their own division. A lot of questions all around.
Player to keep an eye on: We are going to highlight two players, the starting corners for the Generals. Devin McCourty showed a lot of promise last year, and a trade with Atlanta brought them a bona fide starter in Brandon Boykin. That is a pretty good combo. Is it good enough to keep New Jersey from giving up big plays? Or will they need help from DE’s Aaron Kampman and Vic Beasley to keep plays from going too long?
Our Best Guess: Compared with every other team in the division, New Jersey has a lot of questions and a lot to prove. This is a team that may be ready to improve, but they have a tough road ahead, and not a lot of winning experience to fall back on. It will be a tough job for Coach Turner to get them above .500 this year.
Predicted Finish: 5-11, 5th in NE DIvision
24) CHICAGO MACHINE
3-12-1 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: Six new starters from 2015 to 2016 have Chicago fans feeling like this is a new team. Of course, having a new head coach in former Bear front man Lovie Smith is also a positive, but the one thing everyone is talking about is Fitz-Magic. Ryan Fitzpatrick had his best season as a pro last year in Portland. Chicago made the deal to get him to Soldier Field, and fans are hoping that Fitzie can do what Brady Quinn could not, turn Aaron Dobson into an elite receiver and find ways to turn the Machine offense into a top 10 group.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: Three new offensive linemen mean that Chicago will need time to get their run game going, and could struggle against solid pass rush clubs. Will they be able to gel quickly enough to keep this team from having another brutal start (0-8 in 2015) and show some life early on?
Player to keep an eye on: In addition to Fitzpatrick, the players that are bringing excitement back to Chicago are two NFL imports, LB Courtney Upshaw and FS Micah Hyde. Both were much needed positions for improvement and both come from the NFL with a lot of upside in front of them.
Our Best Guess: We think Chicago will be an improved team in 2016. They have weapons on offense, weapons we think Fitzpatrick can use to get the ball down the field and points on the board. The defense should also be improved, though a lot depends on if Jason Pierre-Paul can live up to the hype when they got him from the Bandits last year. The secondary is solid, the LBs disruptive, but the front 3 has to do more. We see Chicago improving and leapfrogging over Ohio to get out of 4th place.
Predicted Finish: 7-9, 3rd in Central.
25) LOS ANGELES EXPRESS
4-12 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: All the buzz in LA is about Sam Bradford. He is a clear upgrade from the decline of Mark Sanchez and from the failed attempt to make Aaron Murray into the starter. Bradford is certainly an upgrade, but is that enough?
Why fans are nervous about 2016: Roddy White, Nelson Aholor, and Marqise Lee. Those are the top 3 receivers in LA. Do you expect any of those three to top 85 catches, 1,200 yards, or 8 TDs? Neither do we. Bradford is a solid QB, but we are just not sure how he produces an effective passing game. More likely he spends a lot of time looking for Reggie Bush out of the backfield or running for his life.
Player to keep an eye on: TE Jason Whitten put up some huge numbers in Jacksonville, and the expectation was that he would do the same in LA, but last year was not the year for that. Whitten had 54 catches for only 451 yards. With Bradford under center, Whitten could have a resurgence.
Our Best Guess: Coach Reid came to LA with the promise of producing a dynamic and multifaceted offense. It has not happened yet, but now he has a better shot with Bradford. If only he had some weapons out wide. LA will have a solid defense, and maybe they stay in more games, but they still look like a team destined for the Pacific Division basement.
Predicted Finish: 5-11, 5th in Pacific Division.
26) OHIO GLORY
5-11 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: They aren’t. It’s just that simple. There was a brief moment when Glory fans thought they had nabbed Carson Wentz. That got them excited, but now, with Brock Osweiler and rookie Christian Hackenberg as their QB options, we are not sensing a lot of optimism in Columbus. And we kinda think they are right to be concerned.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: Beyond the QB issue, Ohio fans are not happy with their receiver group (Blackmon, Mario Manningham, Randall Cobb), uncertain about Isaiah Pead as a premier back, and, despite some nice additions (DE Robert Quinn, Daniel Ellerbe, and LaRon Landry), not feeling confident about the D.
Player to keep an eye on: We are a bit more optimistic about the Ohio D. We think all three additions are upgrades for the Glory D, and the combination of Quinn and Wemberly at DE could produce a pretty good pass rush. We love Ryan Shazier at OLB and the addition of Ellerbe makes that group better. CB is still an issue, but LaRon Landry is solid option at safety. If this club has any success this year, we think it will be because of the defense. But, all said, wins will be tough to come by.
Our Best Guess: Could Ohio surprise us? Well, if their defense holds up, and the run game with Pead is better than expected, and either Osweiler or Hackenberg proves they can be a steady hand at the wheel, and pigs sprout wings. Basically, we just don’t see the talent on this team to compete in what could be a very strong Central Division. Chicago has improved quite a bit over the offseason, in ways Ohio has not, so that does not bode well for the Glory, who need to do more to revamp a team that feels left behind in the mix.
Predicted Finish: 5-11, 4th in Central
27) TAMPA BAY BANDITS
4-12 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: The two types of people who might be very excited about the Bandits this year are masochists and the family of rookie CB Jalen Ramsey. Outside of those two groups, we are having a hard time finding excitement about a team that once again failed to land a premier QB and has more questions than answers across their roster.
Why fans are nervous about 2016: Well, a 4-12 season, with no coaching change, will make teams nervous. Failing to sign Jared Goff a year after whiffing on Jameis Winston will just make them angry. Fans expected a bigger roster turnover from 2015 to 2016, but they got only a few new faces. That does not seem like a team ready to leave the divisional basement.
Player to keep an eye on: Ramsey is by far the most exciting of the new players on the club. He and NFL import Don’t’a Hightower could be vital to any defensive resurgence the Bandits hope for.
Our Best Guess: Our take on the Bandits is that they are uncertain at QB, underwhelming at HB, understaffed at WR, and unsure on defense. That is a lot of un-good.
Predicted Finish: 3-13, 5th in SE Division
28) LAS VEGAS VIPERS
6-10 in 2015
Why fans are excited for 2016: They are drunk? They won big at the blackjack table? It certainly is not because of the roster the Vipers have put together. Look across the Viper offense and show me a player who is top 5 at his position? Heck, do the same on defense. Not easy, is it?
Why fans are nervous about 2016: The Vipers have the look of a team that will be picking first or second in the Draft next January. We just don’t see how this roster is supposed to be competitive. Add to that a coach in Greg Roman, who very few see as having the capacity to turn these parts into a surprise success, and there is a lot of pessimism about the Vipers.
Player to keep an eye on: Rookie Matthew Judon won the RE job over several veterans. He will be a player to watch as the Vipers’ 4-3 tries to produce pressure without the heavy blitz rate that the club used last year. Could he be a surprise find in the draft? We shall see.
Our Best Guess: Honestly, we think Las Vegas is the frontrunner to be the worst team in the league. We just don’t see them being favored in many games. They will win a few, because going 0-16 is almost as hard as going 16-0, but nothing will be easy for them this year.
Predicted Finish: 3-13, 5th in SW Division
Postseason predictions
Sticking with our team by team predictions above, we end up with the following division and playoff positions:
NORTHEAST: PIT 13-3, BAL 11-5, PHI 9-7, WSH 8-8, NJ 5-11
SOUTHEAST: ORL 10-6, JAX 8-8, CHA 8-8, ATL 5-11, TBY 3-13
SOUTHERN: NOR 11-5, HOU 11-5, BIR 8-8, MEM 6-10
Seeds: 1-BIT, 2-NOR, 3-ORL, 4-HOU, 5-BAL, 6-PHI
CENTRAL: MGN 10-6, STL 9-7, CHI 7-9, OHI 5-11
SOUTHWEST: ARZ 13-3, DAL 10-6, TEX 9-7, DEN 7-9, LV 3-13
PACIFIC: OAK 11-5, SEA 10-6, POR 9-7, SD 7-9, LA 5-11
Seeds: 1-ARZ, 2-OAK, 3-MGN, 4-DAL, 5-SEA, 6-STL
Texas, Portland, and charlotte drop from the 2015 playoff roster. Dallas, Seattle, and Philadelphia make playoff appearances, but the favorites remain the same. Arizona, Oakland, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans get bye weeks, which can be a huge advantage especially after the wear and tear of a full season.
In the Wild Card round we see Orlando defeating Philadelphia in a low scoring affair, Baltimore edging Houston in a high scoring shoot out, Michigan holding off division rival St. Louis, and Seattle upsetting Dallas in Dallas. That sets up Orlando @ New Orleans, Baltimore @ Pittsburgh, Michigan @ Oakland, and Seattle @ Arizona. We are going to predict two upsets here, with Baltimore edging Pittsburgh as a revenge game from the Maulers’ road win last year, and we see Michigan outlasting Oakland. So, our Conference Championships would be Baltimore @ New Orleans, and Michigan @ Arizona. We cannot currently picture the Panthers upending the Wranglers, so we are going to put Arizona in their 3rd Summer Bowl in 4 years. We do think that Baltimore has the firepower to get past the Breaker defense, so we are going to go with the upset, creating a Summer Bowl battle of the 2013 vs. 2014 Champions with Baltimore vs. Arizona.
This would be a fascinating game to analyze, as both teams are superior in one clear area but solid I the other. Baltimore’s offense would have their hands full with Arizona’s defense, while Arizona’s offense matches up well with Baltimore’s defense. We are going to say that if the winning team’s point total is 24 or less, that points to the Wranglers, but if the winning side has 25 or more, that leans it to Baltimore. When in doubt, at least in the USFL, we go with offense, so we are going to call the upset, with the 5th seed Blitz edging the 1st seed Wranglers by a total of 27-23. But, as always, do not put the deed to the ranch on this bet, because it truly is impossible to call at this stage of the year.
Award Predictions
When we look over the league and try to make predictions about league awards, we feel a bit more confident than when we try to look at entire teams and determine their placement. With the league awards there are already favorites, players whose performance in recent years puts them in prime position to garner votes early and hold them for the year. We will make our picks for the Big 5 awards the USFL hands out, recognizing once again that everything from injury to team strategy can influence the outcome of these races.
MVP: Dalton over Roethlisberger
We pretty much limit our exploration of MVP votes to the quarterbacks, because history shows us that it is rare for a non-QB to do enough to jump over the highest rated signal callers. When we look over the league, there are several QB’s who could be in the initial running, but we clearly end up with 2-time MVP Ben Roethlisberger and his top competitor, Pittsburgh’s Andy Dalton as the two most likely candidates. We are going to give Dalton the edge this year because we are also predicting Pittsburgh to take the division, but we expect it will be a split vote between the two gunslingers.
OPOTY: Marques Colston Comes Close Again.
It seems almost cruel to say that Maques Colston will once again finish second in the voting, but with our prediction that Texas suffers a bit from the loss of his opposite, Brandon Marshall, we think both the team record and his personal stats will drop just enough to allow someone else to sneak in ahead of him. We are going to go with HB Carlos Hyde, the 2014 Rookie of the Year, to have a huge season, both rushing and receiving, likely topping the 2,000 yard mark for Yards from Scrimmage, and we think that, along with Houston’s better final record, will allow Hyde to overtake Colston for the title.
DPOTY: Von Miller Emerges in Year Two
We made the bold prediction earlier that Campbell would have his sack total snapped after 7 seaons, and we predicted Miller to be the one to do it. If he can win the title, and if his sack total is 25 or higher, which feels very possible, then we cannot see any way he does not win the DPOTY award. If Campbell can once again hold onto the sack title, then the race is wide open because we know folks are tired of giving Campbell awards.
ROTY: Derrick Henry Runs Laps Around the Contenders
Just based on circumstance and opportunity we have to give Henry the clear advantage here. He is the only HB already penciled in not only as the starter, but as a lead back in a 1-back system. Most of the other rookies, whether backs like Kenyan Drake or Paul Perkins are pencilled in as the 2nd back, either a pure backup or a rotational starter. We don’t see any rookie QB’s starting, at least not initially, and among the rookie receivers (Will Fuller in Chicago, Tajae Sharpe in Jacksonville, or Tyreek Hill in Washington), we just don’t see any who are going to emerge quickly enough to outpace Henry statistically. There are a couple of defenders who will be in the race, players like CBs Jalen Ramsey (TBY) or Xavien Howard (SEA), a LB like Myles Jack (SD), or a D-lineman like Matthew Judon (LV) or Chris Jones (LA), we just don’t see them doing enough to overtake a solid offensive starter.
COTY: Jack Del Rio Gets Kudos for Resurrecting the Bulls
We are picking Jacksonville to improve to 8-8, which may not seem like much, but when Coach Del Rio took over the Bulls, they were 0-16, so a two year program that gets them to .500 is a pretty amazing accomplishment. We believe voters will see and acknowledge that. However, as was the case last year with Vic Fangio in Pittsburgh, if any team can jump from sub-.500 into a 10+ win season and a playoff berth, they could be looking at this award. Right now we would say that Jim Harbaugh is the most likely candidate in that group.
So, we have reviewed the offseason moves, dissected the rosters, and made our picks. Are we ready to play some football? Week 1 is only 3 days away, so it is time to pick your venue, order some wings or burgers, and pour yourself a brewski. Football is back! Here is our breakdown of the first week of action across the league, 14 games, no waiting!!!
FRI @ 8:00pm ET Oakland Invaders @ New Orleans Breakers NBC
The Breakers begin their title defense hosting the Invaders in a game that will likely feature a lot of defensive football.
SAT @ 12:00pm ET Atlanta Fire @ Washington Federals ABC
Two teams hoping to make a statement with an opening week victory.
SAT @ 12:00pm ET Houston Gamblers @ Memphis Showboats FOX
Eli Manning opens what could be a swan song season with a tough matchup against Matt Hasselbeck and the Gamblers.
SAT @ 4:00pm ET Las Vegas Vipers @ Texas Outlaws ABC
The Vipers were unable to win a road game in all of 2015. Starting with one in Texas is no way to snap that streak as Joe Flacco will be waiting for them.
SAT @ 4:00pm ET Portland Stags @ Birmingham Stallions FOX
Marcus Mariota debuts as the clear number one in Portland, but the Stags D had better be ready for Cam Newton, or it could be a long day for the home team.
SAT @ 7:00pm ET New Jersey Generals @ Baltimore Blitz NBC
Brett Hundley will get the start for the Generals against a revamped defense for the Blitz, including the arrival of Olivier Vernon as the new LE chasing opposing QBs.
SAT @ 9:00pm ET Michigan Panthers @ San Diego Thunder ESPN/EFN
Kirk Cousins, LeVeon Bell and the Panthers hope to start the season fast, but the Thunder are hoping that their new run game can match Michigan with Ryan Williams taking the lead.
SUN @ 12:00pm ET Philadelphia Stars @ St. Lous Skyhawks ABC
It’s the pro debut of Derrick Henry. Is he the newest in a long line of outstanding Star halfbacks?
SUN @ 12:00pm ET Tampa Bay Bandits @ Charlotte Monarchs FOX Regional
Two teams with a lot of question marks and a lot of new faces. We are excited to see Chandler Jones in action, but Pat White probably is not as psyched by the prospect.
SUN @ 12:00pm ET Denver Gold @ Jacksonville Bulls FOX Regional
Two teams hoping they are heading in the right direction. Denver has a new coach in John Hufnagel, but the Bulls showed some fight last year and in Jack Del Rio’s second year, they are hoping to compete.
SUN @ 4:00pm ET Ohio Glory @ Seattle Dragons ABC Regional
Tom Coughlin is hoping to whip the Glory into shape, but he needs to be careful of a Seattle defense that could be a real challenge.
SUN @ 4:00pm ET Chicago Machine @ Los Angeles Express ABC Regional
Two QBs with new homes as Chicago’s Ryan Fitzpatrick faces off against LA’s Sam Bradford. Only one of them can start this new phase of their careers with a win.
SUN @ 4:00pm ET Arizona Wranglers @ Dallas Roughnecks FOX
If the Roughnecks want to prove they are ready for prime time, they have to find a way to knock off the big boys in the division, David Carr, Frank Gore, and Troy Polamalu have other ideas.
SUN @ 8:00pm ET Orlando Renegades @ Pittsburgh Maulers ESPN/EFN
Calais Campbell and the Orlando defense offer a tough start for Andy Dalton, Adam Thielen, and the Mauler offense in the first Sunday Nighter of the season.
Kommentare